[Table_Main] 行业研究|能源| 能源Ⅱ 证 券研究报告 能源Ⅱ行业研究报告 2024年03月15日 [Table_Invest] [Ta海ble_外Titl变e] 压器供需错配，国产厂商出海加速 推荐|首次 ——变压器行业深度研究报告 [报Ta告ble要_S点um：m ary] [过Ta去bl一e_年Pic市Q场uo行te]情  需求端：多重因素驱动，海外变压器需求有望持续高涨 27% 海外变压器需求高涨的驱动因素在于：1）发电侧：大量新能源项目积 15% 压，带动电网升级扩容的需求。2）电网侧：欧美等发达经济体电网老 3% 化，变压器等关键电力设备存在更换需求。3）用电侧：北美制造业回 -9% 流带动工业用电力设备需求，终端电气化和算力持续驱动电力需求增 -20% 长。变压器是电网的关键设备，其新增和更换容量有望持续增长。根 3/15 6/14 9/13 12/13 3/13 据IEA，APS下预计2022-2030年变压器的需求增加到3.5 TW/年。 能源Ⅱ 沪深300 从结构来看，配电端的变压器需求占比更高。 资料来源：Wind  供给端：变压器扩产受限制，美国本土供给不足依赖进口 [ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 20% compared to the Shanghai Composite Index within the next six months [5][17]. Core Views - The company's profitability has significantly improved, and it is well-positioned to benefit from the explosive demand for AI hardware in the digital economy [2][4]. - Despite a short-term revenue decline due to business restructuring, the company has seen substantial growth in its AI server market share and overall profitability across its business segments [3][12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported total revenue of 476.34 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.94% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 21.04 billion yuan, an increase of 4.82% year-on-year [2][10]. - The fourth quarter saw revenue of 147.52 billion yuan, down 2.15% year-on-year, and net profit of 7.56 billion yuan, down 8.72% year-on-year [2]. Revenue Breakdown - Cloud computing revenue reached 194.31 billion yuan, with AI server products accounting for nearly 50% of this segment, reflecting a significant market share increase [3][11]. - The communication and mobile network equipment segment generated 278.98 billion yuan, with notable growth in high-speed switches and routers [3][11]. - Industrial internet revenue was 1.65 billion yuan, with the company contributing to the establishment of nine world-class lighthouse factories [3][12]. Profitability - The gross margins for cloud computing, communication and mobile network equipment, and industrial internet were 5.08%, 9.80%, and 49.81%, respectively, showing year-on-year increases [3][12]. - The cloud computing segment achieved its highest gross margin since its IPO in 2018, driven by the rising share of AI-related products [12][14]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing demand for computing hardware, with projected revenues of 543.77 billion yuan, 604.90 billion yuan, and 677.56 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [5][6]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 24.58 billion yuan, 28.20 billion yuan, and 32.44 billion yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 18x, 16x, and 14x [5][6]. Strategic Positioning - As a leader in the digital economy, the company is poised to capitalize on the AI hardware demand surge, with a strong focus on R&D and a robust patent portfolio [4][14]. - The company has established a global digital management system that enhances production flexibility and supply chain resource management, positioning it favorably for future growth [14].

Investment Rating - The report gives an "Accumulate" rating for the company [7]. Core Viewpoints - The company focuses on brand building and enhancing brand visibility through collaborations with top celebrities and media, achieving over 5.5 billion brand touches in 2020 [1]. - The company has a comprehensive channel strategy, emphasizing both B2B and B2C channels, with a significant focus on enhancing the capabilities of its distributors [2][4]. - The company has seen a steady increase in the number of distributors, reaching 3,285 by Q3 2023, although this represents a slight decline from the previous year due to a focus on optimizing distributor performance [3][4]. - The company’s revenue from customized seasoning products has shown significant growth, with a 23.25% year-on-year increase in Q1-Q3 2023 [28]. - The company’s gross margin and net margin have improved, with Q1-Q3 2023 gross margin at 36.89% and net margin at 14.31%, reflecting effective cost management [59]. Summary by Sections Brand Strategy - The company has engaged in high-profile collaborations to enhance brand recognition, including partnerships with celebrities and media outlets, resulting in substantial brand exposure [1]. Distribution Channels - The company employs a dual-channel strategy, focusing on both B2B and B2C, with a strong emphasis on enhancing distributor capabilities and expanding its market reach [2][4]. - The number of distributors has increased significantly since the company's listing, although recent adjustments have led to a slight reduction in distributor count to focus on performance [3]. Financial Performance - The company forecasts a net profit of approximately 4.48 billion yuan for 2023, reflecting a growth rate of 31.17% [19]. - The revenue from the company's main products, including hot pot base and Chinese cuisine seasonings, accounted for 88.49% of total revenue in 2022, with steady growth observed [20]. Market Position - The company holds a strong position in the hot pot seasoning market, with its brands "Good People" and "Big Red Robe" collectively capturing a significant market share [72]. - The customized seasoning segment is rapidly growing, driven by increasing demand from the restaurant industry, with a notable rise in the number of clients served [28].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's Q1 2024 performance shows significant growth, with estimated net profit attributable to the parent company ranging from 40 to 48 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 80.29% to 113.15% [5] - The growth is driven by the rapid development of new energy and energy storage data center businesses, with new energy vehicle-related revenue increasing and customer structure optimization [5] - The company has expanded its energy storage and data center liquid cooling pipeline systems, with batch production starting for energy storage systems and small-scale supply for data center server systems [5] - The company is promoting integrated supply and efficiency improvements, enhancing customer stickiness and supply value through rubber + nylon integrated pipelines and self-made components [5] Financial Forecasts - The report raises the company's net profit forecast for 2023-2025 to 164, 236, and 293 million yuan, respectively, with basic earnings per share of 0.76, 1.09, and 1.35 yuan [5] - The company's revenue is expected to grow from 776.49 million yuan in 2021 to 1,992.86 million yuan in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 22.25% [10][13] - The company's net profit margin is projected to remain stable at around 14.80% to 14.88% from 2023 to 2025 [10] Valuation - The company's P/E ratio is expected to decrease from 23.40 in 2023 to 13.12 in 2025, indicating a more attractive valuation [5][13] - The target price is set at 21.8 yuan, with a 6-month target period [9] Business Highlights - The company's new energy business is accelerating, with key customers including major brands such as BYD, Geely, and Li Auto [5] - The company has established partnerships with over 40 clients in the energy storage sector and is a key supplier for a major domestic data center client [5] Historical Performance - The company's stock price has shown a downward trend over the past year, underperforming the CSI 300 index [16]

[Table_Invest] 增持|首次推荐 资料来源：Wind、Ifind、国元证券研究所整理 图 1: 公司收入、归母净利及增速……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 6 图 17: 公司分地区经销商数量及增速 . 图 23: 公司分档次白酒收入及增速…………………………………………………………………… 14 [Table_Main] 公司研究|日常消费|食品、饮料与烟草 证券研究报告 [Table_TargetPrice] 金徽酒(603919)公司首次覆盖报告 2024 年 03 月 12 日 [Table_Title] 陇上美酒，C 端置顶 ——金徽酒（603919）首次覆盖报告 [Table_Summary] 报告要点： 金徽酒：甘肃领先酒企，深耕西北、布局全国 1）甘肃领先酒企。公司是我国甘肃省领先酒企，地处秦岭腹地、嘉陵江畔， 毗邻世界自然遗产九寨沟。2022 年，公司收入/归母净利为 20.12/2.80 亿 元，2011-2022 ...

资料来源：Wind，国元证券研究所 资料来源：Wind，国元证券研究所 发达国家的先例给予我们的启示如下： 1）在发生流动性陷阱时，不要考虑利率的线性，在极端的悲观预期下，利率必 须以陡峭的斜率向下，这就是一个非常规化的宽松过程； 2）不要考虑凯恩斯主义的问题，从三个国家的先例来看，货币依然有效，大家 对货币无效的认知是因为货币宽松的力度慢于预期衰退的速度； 3）时间非常宝贵，政策越早决断，经济受伤害的时间就越短，后续经济的恢复 也会相应更加容易。 具体到资产配置上，当流动性陷阱发生时，债券是最佳的投资选择。毕竟在此期 间，一方面是央行持续下调基准利率，另一方面是不断下行的利率水平没有产生相应 的效果或者产生的效果非常微弱，从而市场预期利率水平还会继续下降直至到零附 近。宽松的现实叠加宽松的预期，债券成为最优资产也就在情理之中了。而且，在流 动性陷阱没有改观的情况下，即使经济出现脉冲式上扬，债券市场的反应也是非常弱 的。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 9 / 11 地缘政治冲突加剧，美国金融系统危机爆发，国内宏观政策落地不及预期等 风险提示： 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1988-01198 ...

Group 1: Gold Price Analysis - Current gold prices are significantly high compared to the 10Y US Treasury yield, which suggests a disconnection from traditional pricing models, indicating that gold should be around $850 per ounce based on historical yield relationships[29] - The rise in gold prices cannot solely be attributed to inflation hedging, suggesting that market expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts or increased risk aversion may be influencing prices[31] - The increase in gold prices is linked to geopolitical tensions and potential financial risks, with events like the Russia-Ukraine conflict and upcoming US elections contributing to market uncertainty[36] Group 2: Market Trends and Predictions - In 2024, approximately 50 countries will hold elections, creating uncertainty that could support gold prices[46] - Major economies, including the US and Eurozone, have likely concluded their rate hike cycles, with the focus now on when rate cuts will begin, suggesting a trend towards increased global liquidity[39] - Historical trends indicate that gold prices in China have outperformed international prices during periods of domestic liquidity shortages, highlighting the importance of liquidity in price movements[15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting the stock price to outperform the Shanghai Composite Index by more than 20% in the next six months [17]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant recovery in performance for 2023, with total revenue reaching 677.8 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 111.46%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 134.48 million yuan, up 813.92% from the previous year [5][11]. - The cultural performance segment saw rapid growth, with revenue of 453 million yuan, a 74.22% increase year-on-year. The company has a robust order backlog totaling 550 million yuan as of the end of 2023 [19][30]. - The company is actively expanding its presence in the cultural tourism sector, with a notable increase in revenue from C-end operations, which reached 213 million yuan, a 514.45% increase year-on-year [30]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 677.8 million yuan, with a net profit of 134.48 million yuan, marking a significant turnaround from losses in the previous year [5][11]. - The company expects to continue this growth trend, projecting net profits of 259 million yuan, 310 million yuan, and 348 million yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [11][26]. - The report highlights a strong recovery in profitability, with the net profit margin expected to improve significantly over the next few years [11][26].

[Table_Main] 行 业研究|电信服务 证 券研究报告 电信服务行业周报 2024年03月11日 [T适 abl度 e_T超 itle前 建设 5G、算力等信息设施，推进工业互 [Table_Invest] 推荐|维持 ] 联网规模化引用 ——通信行业周报 [过Ta去bl一e_年Pic市Q场uo行te]情 [报Ta告ble要_S点um：m ary]  市场整体行情及通信细分板块行情回顾 沪深300 通信(申万) 周行情：本周（2024.03.04-2024.03.08）上证综指上涨 0.63%，深 40% 证成指回调0.70%，创业板回调0.92%。本周申万通信上涨2.55%。 30% 20% 考虑通信行业的高景气度延续，相关企业经营业绩的不断兑现可期， 10% 我们给予通信及电子行业“推荐”评级。 0% -10% 细分行业方面：本周（2024.03.04-2024.03.08）通信板块三级子行 -20% 业中，通信网络设备及器件上涨幅度最高，涨幅为4.16%，通信应用 -30%3/10 6/10 9/10 12/10 3/10 增值服务回调幅度最高，跌幅为0.74%，本周各细分板块主要呈上涨 资料 ...

[Table_Title] 宏观研究报告 证券研究报告 2024 年 03 月 10 日 宏观与大类资产周报：跨周期的资产 投资建议—— 宏观经济：虽然金融周期至此，但目前内溢的外部流动性能够基本稳住 库存周期，这导致经济基本面至少是平的。 资产配置：如果流动性梗阻还在，那 risk-off 将是一个超出周期理解范 畴的趋势。 利率债：在宽信用出现之前，建议维持高杠杆、长久期。但监管是需要密 切关注的一条可能转向的线索。 权益市场：建议保持观望。历史经验来看，历次股市上涨，都需要流动性 （狭义社融）或者经济名义增速至少其一的好转。 信用市场：在风控允许的范围内，可以尽可能下潜城投信用，目前看，在 极端的配置图景下，信用利差有历史性新低的可能；但是地产信用还要等等。 商品市场：从绝对价格的角度，当前商品价格是偏高的，但从周期意义上 说，商品可能即将出现一个上行的波段，此中尤其可以关注原油价格的修复。 报告要点： 本周关注—— 本周两会召开，政府工作报告再次彰显政策定力。今年政策的力度和方 向是市场关注的重点，从政府工作报告来看，政策的定力依旧很强，赤字率目 标定在了 3%，没有大幅度扩大财政赤字。 2 月国内 ...