Group 1: Skincare and Cosmetics Market Insights - The report highlights the rapid growth of functional skincare products in China, with the market size increasing from 13.3 billion yuan in 2017 to 30.8 billion yuan in 2021, achieving a CAGR of 23.4% [5] - The top brands in the skincare category during the 38th Douyin Goods Festival included brands like "Chanel" and "Estée Lauder," with significant year-on-year GMV growth for several brands [2] - Domestic brands are gaining market share, with five local brands among the top 20 in the Chinese cosmetics market, reflecting a growing acceptance among Gen Z consumers [7] Group 2: Regulatory Environment - The new cosmetic supervision regulations implemented in January 2021 aim to enhance industry standardization, benefiting compliant companies with strong R&D and management capabilities [8] - The regulations classify cosmetics based on risk levels and require sufficient scientific evidence for efficacy claims, ensuring that manufacturers are accountable for product safety and claims [31][32] Group 3: Alcoholic Beverages Market - The report indicates that major liquor companies have shown steady growth in performance, with high-end liquor brands like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye experiencing significant profit increases in the first three quarters of 2023 [11][12] - The demand for high-end liquor is expected to improve as business needs recover, with a notable increase in banquet consumption post-pandemic [34] - The beer industry is transitioning towards high-end products, with a steady increase in high-end beer consumption from 5.9 billion liters in 2013 to an expected 10.2 billion liters in 2023, reflecting a CAGR of 5.63% [27] Group 4: Beer Industry Dynamics - The beer industry is facing a decline in overall production, with a 29.49% decrease from 2013 to 2022, indicating a shift from volume growth to quality improvement [25] - The concentration of the beer market is increasing, with the top five companies holding over 90% of the market share, indicating a stable oligopoly [42] - The average price per ton of beer has been on the rise, with significant increases observed from 2017 to 2022, suggesting a shift towards premiumization in the market [30][48]

策略研究|策略周观点 证 券 研 究 报 告 策略周观点 策略研究 正文目录 | --- | --- | --- | |----------|--------------------------------------------------|-------| | | | | | | 图表 1: 4月15日-4月19日当周主要指数涨跌幅（%）. | | | 图表 2: | 4 月 15 日-4 月 19 日当周申万一级板块涨跌幅（%） | | | 图表 3: | A 股日成交额(亿元) | | | 图表 4: | A 股主要宽幅指数单日成交换手率(%) | | | 图表 5: | 4月15日-4月19日当周申万一级行业成交额（亿元） | | | 图表 6: | 市场资金流向（亿元） | | | 图表 7: | 北向资金周成交额与成交净买入额（亿元） | | | 图表 8: | 主要宽幅指数当前估值水平（%）. | | | 图表 9: | 申万一级行业当前估值水平 . | | | 图表 10: | 4月 15 日-4月 19日财经要闻 | | 第2页共10页 证券研究报告|策略报告 1.1 市场涨跌幅 4月15 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the overall recovery of the domestic economy and the continuous release of consumer demand, with the domestic stock market indices and valuations currently at low points after a comprehensive adjustment [36][34][19] - The report emphasizes the importance of rational consumption and the structural coexistence of consumption upgrades and downgrades in the current market environment [36][34] Market Review - The A-share market experienced a volume contraction with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.29% to 3,065.26 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index down by 1.04% to 9,279.46 points [15][18] - The total trading volume in the A-share market was approximately 860 billion RMB, with northbound funds net selling 6.49 billion RMB [15][18] - The report notes that over 3,000 stocks in the A-share market declined, with the oil and petrochemical, and defense industries leading gains, while electronics and power equipment sectors lagged [15][18] Industry Insights - **Gold and Jewelry**: The dual attributes of gold as an investment and consumption product are resonating, with leading companies like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang expanding their market share through category diversification [21][36] - **Cosmetics**: The demand for cosmetics is gradually recovering, with domestic brands outperforming international ones. The report suggests focusing on companies with strong R&D capabilities and product quality [21][36] - **Liquor**: The report anticipates a recovery in business demand in 2024, with high-end liquor companies expected to see valuation recovery as inventory clears and consumer confidence improves [21][36] - **Beer**: The decline in raw material prices is expected to enhance profitability, with a continued trend towards premiumization in the beer industry [21][36] - **Dairy Products**: The report indicates that the decline in raw milk prices will relieve cost pressures, and the diversification of consumption scenarios presents growth opportunities [21][36] - **Condiments**: The profitability of soy sauce companies is expected to improve due to lower soybean prices, with a growing consumer demand for healthy condiments [21][36] - **Tourism**: The report highlights a recovery in tourism demand supported by policy changes, with new opportunities arising for emerging tourist cities [21][36] - **Hotels**: The hotel industry is seeing significant improvements in operating performance, with a focus on mid-range expansion and high-end brand development [21][36] Company-Specific Insights - **Proya**: The company reported a revenue of 8.905 billion RMB in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 39.45%, with a net profit of 1.194 billion RMB, reflecting a growth of 46.06% [39][23] - The main brand Proya has upgraded its core products significantly, with a focus on anti-aging lines and a new high-end product line [39][23] - The online sales channel has shown robust growth, accounting for 93.07% of total revenue, with significant performance during major sales events [39][23] - The report projects net profits for Proya to reach 1.599 billion RMB, 1.970 billion RMB, and 2.407 billion RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [23][39]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company's performance exceeded expectations, with a 45.58% year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders in Q1 2024. In 2023, the company achieved revenue of 8.905 billion yuan (up 39.45% year-on-year) and a net profit of 1.194 billion yuan (up 46.06% year-on-year) [3] - The main brand, Proya, has fully upgraded its core products, with significant growth in multiple sub-brands. Proya's revenue in 2023 was 7.177 billion yuan (up 36.36% year-on-year), accounting for 80.73% of total revenue [3] - The company has seen rapid growth in its online channels, achieving revenue of 8.274 billion yuan (up 42.96% year-on-year) in 2023, with online direct sales accounting for 75.91% of total revenue [10] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2023, the company achieved revenue of 3.656 billion yuan (up 50.86% year-on-year) and a net profit of 448 million yuan (up 39.06% year-on-year) [3] - For Q1 2024, revenue was 2.182 billion yuan (up 34.56% year-on-year) and net profit was 303 million yuan (up 45.58% year-on-year) [3] - The company’s operating cash flow for 2023 was 1.469 billion yuan (up 32.19% year-on-year) [3] Brand and Product Development - Proya has upgraded its core product lines, including the "Double Anti-aging Series" and "Ruby Series," and launched a high-end product line focused on mature skin [3] - The sub-brand Caitang achieved revenue of 1.001 billion yuan (up 75.06% year-on-year), while OR and Yuefuti also saw significant revenue growth of 71.17% and 61.82% respectively [3] Profitability and Forecast - The company’s gross margin improved to 69.93% in 2023, with a net margin of 13.82%. For Q1 2024, gross margin was 70.11% and net margin was 14.44% [10] - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 is 1.599 billion yuan, 1.970 billion yuan, and 2.407 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 26, 21, and 17 times [10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [5][10]. Core Insights - The company has shown strong revenue growth in oral liquid and gel formulations, with significant increases in sales for these products [5]. - The overall gross margin for Q1 2024 is 74.61%, a slight decrease of 0.49 percentage points year-on-year, with varying gross margins across different product types [2]. - The company has optimized its expense ratios, with a sales expense ratio of 37.44% (down 6.52 percentage points year-on-year) and a total expense ratio of 45.34% (down 2.44 percentage points year-on-year) [2]. - Research and development expenses have increased by 8.24% to 204 million yuan, indicating a continued commitment to innovation [2]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 57.20 billion yuan, 67.47 billion yuan, and 79.34 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 6.46 billion yuan, 7.75 billion yuan, and 9.39 billion yuan [3][5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise to 1.10 yuan, 1.33 yuan, and 1.61 yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with a decreasing price-to-earnings (PE) ratio forecasted [3][10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Maintain Buy" [29] Core Views - The company has maintained revenue growth, achieving a revenue of 4.438 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 12.37%, although the growth rate has slightly decreased compared to the previous year's 14.64% [2][20] - The net profit for 2023 was 404 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.70%, significantly lower than the previous year's growth of 30.66% [2][20] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 3.00 yuan per 10 shares to all shareholders [20] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 4.438 billion yuan, with a net profit of 404 million yuan and a non-recurring net profit of 389 million yuan [2][20] - The fourth quarter of 2023 saw a revenue of 928 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.46%, with net profits of 53 million yuan [2][20] - The gross profit margin for 2023 was 18.63%, a slight decrease of 0.18 percentage points from the previous year [2] Product Performance - Major products saw revenue growth, with fine wool yarn, cashmere, and wool tops achieving revenues of 2.497 billion, 1.222 billion, and 661 million yuan respectively, all showing over 10% growth [2] - The revenue growth rate for fine wool yarn improved from 8.93% last year to 11.30%, while cashmere revenue growth significantly declined from 29.03% to 14.11% [2] Market Conditions - Domestic consumption of woolen products showed a good recovery in 2023, with retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, and textiles reaching 1.4095 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.39% [16] - However, woolen exports slightly decreased, with total exports of woolen raw materials and products amounting to 12.1 billion USD, down 1.40% year-on-year [16] Profit Forecast and Investment Suggestion - The company is expected to maintain its position as a global leader in the fine wool industry, with projected net profits of 461 million, 492 million, and 542 million yuan for 2024-2026 [16][21] - The earnings per share are forecasted to be 0.63, 0.67, and 0.74 yuan for the same period, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 10.81, 10.12, and 9.19 [21]

Core Insights - The banking industry continues to face operational pressure, with a projected revenue growth rate of -0.89% for 2024, a decline of 0.04 percentage points from the previous quarter. Net profit growth is expected to be 1.6%, down 1 percentage point from the previous quarter. The positive contribution to revenue in 2023 was primarily due to high scale expansion and low base investment income growth, while net interest margins and non-interest income are weakening [10][17] - The overall interest rates are expected to remain on a downward trend, with the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate target range currently at 5.25%-5.5%. The long-term interest rates may have limited room for further decline unless there is a significant economic downturn in the U.S. [10][17] Market Review - On a recent trading day, all three major A-share indices rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 2.14% to 3,071.38 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index rising by 2.48%. The total trading volume in A-shares reached 918.2 billion RMB, with over 4,800 stocks rising. In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Index rose by 0.02% [7][25] Diamond Industry Insights - In March, India's rough diamond imports decreased by 12.39% year-on-year, while exports of polished diamonds increased by 11.03%. The penetration rates for both imported and exported cultivated diamonds improved, with export penetration at 9.61% and import penetration at 5.88% [12][18] - The natural diamond market saw a significant decline in rough diamond imports, down 15.66% year-on-year, while polished diamond exports remained stable with a decline of 27.43%. The price index for finished diamonds has slightly decreased, indicating a low demand recovery [12][21]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Add" [6][13]. Core Insights - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 11.263 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.42%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.040 billion yuan, up 41.60% year-on-year [3][4]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 25 yuan per 10 shares to all shareholders [3]. - The company is focusing on a national expansion strategy while continuing to strengthen its core market in Guangdong, with significant growth in sales from new product launches [4][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2023, the company reported a revenue of 2.622 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40.88%, and a net profit of 384 million yuan, up 39.69% year-on-year [3][4]. - The gross profit margin for 2023 was 43.07%, an increase of 0.74 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to lower raw material costs [10]. Product and Market Development - The core product, Dongpeng Special Drink, generated a revenue of 10.336 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.48%, while other beverages saw a revenue increase of 186.65% to 914 million yuan [4]. - The company’s market share in the energy drink segment increased, with sales volume share rising from 36.70% at the end of 2022 to 43.02% in 2023 [4]. Future Projections - The company aims for a revenue and net profit growth of over 20% in 2024, with projected net profits of 2.557 billion yuan, 3.200 billion yuan, and 3.883 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [10][11]. - The earnings per share are expected to be 6.39 yuan, 8.00 yuan, and 9.71 yuan for the same years [11].

证 券 研 究 报 告 宏观快评报告 宏观研究 次文件中，资本市场服务实体经济的属性更加突出，强调了对 于科创、绿色、国企改革、中小企业、民企等的服务方向。未 来符合国家战略方向的数字经济、新兴产业和未来产业发展服 务有望进一步加强，推动新质生产力发展。资本市场也将配合 央行做好科技、绿色、普惠、养老数字金融五大篇章相关工 作。 证券研究报告|宏观报告 [Table_AdressInfo] 万联证券股份有限公司 研究所 [Table_RightTitle] 证券研究报告|宏观报告 万联证券研究所 www.wlzq.cn 第2 页共3页 虑的因素。投资者应阅读整篇报告，以获取比较完整的观点与信息，不应仅仅依靠投资评级来推断结论。 [Table_PromiseInfo] 证券分析师承诺 本人具有中国证券业协会授予的证券投资咨询执业资格并登记为证券分析师，以勤勉的执业态度，独立、客观地 出具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反映了本人的研究观点。本人不曾因，不因，也将不会因本报告中的具体推荐意 见或观点而直接或间接收到任何形式的补偿。 [Tale_ReliefInfo] 免责条款 万联证券股份有限公司（以下简称"本公司"）是 ...

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