[Table_StockInfo] 买入 2024年 04月 28日 （维持） 证券研究报告•2023年报&2024年一季报点评 当前价： 19.95元 百润股份（002568） 食品饮料 目标价： 24.18元（6个月） 高基数下收入稳健增长，净利率短期承压 投资要点 西南证券研究发展中心 [T ab事le件_S：u公mm司a发ry布] 2023年报及 2024年一季报，2023年实现营业收入32.6亿元 [分Ta析bl师e_：Au朱th会or振] （+25.9%），实现归母净利润8.1亿元（+55.3%）；2024Q1实现营业收入8亿 执业证号：S1250513110001 元（+5.5%），实现归母净利润1.7亿元（-9.8%）。 电话：023-63786049  鸡尾酒延续稳健增长，品类组合策略清晰。1、分品类看，2023 年鸡尾酒、食 邮箱：zhz@swsc.com.cn 用香精分别实现收入28.8亿元（+27.8%）、3.2亿元（+13.2%）。1）鸡尾酒业 分析师：夏霁 务品类组合策略清晰，口味及包装升级、季节限定等稳固增长。强爽起量以来， 执业证号：S1250523070006 公司加大投 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative performance increase of over 20% compared to the benchmark index in the next six months [1][3]. Core Views - The company experienced a slight revenue decline of 1.5% year-on-year in Q1 2024, with total revenue reaching 750 million yuan. This decline is attributed to a high base from the previous year and a slow recovery in overall consumer demand [2][11]. - Despite the revenue pressure, the net profit margin improved, with a net profit of 270 million yuan in Q1 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.1% [11]. - The company is focusing on expanding its product categories and distribution channels, particularly through its "dual expansion strategy" which emphasizes both market and product category growth [12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2024 revenue was 750 million yuan, down 1.5% year-on-year, while net profit was 270 million yuan, up 4.1% year-on-year. The gross margin was 52.1%, down 4.2 percentage points year-on-year due to high raw material costs [2][11]. - The company expects net profits for 2024 to be 921.94 million yuan, with an EPS of 0.80 yuan, reflecting a dynamic PE of 16 times [3][13]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is implementing a dual expansion strategy focusing on the development of new products, particularly the pickled vegetable sauce, and enhancing distribution in lower-tier markets [12]. - Marketing efforts will combine health-oriented messaging with brand promotion to strengthen market presence and brand recognition [12]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates a recovery in profit margins as raw material prices stabilize, with expectations for a significant improvement in profitability in the second half of 2024 [12].

齿轮减速机同比微增，模块化和 GNORD减速机有所下滑。1）齿轮减速机实现 营收 20.52 亿元，同比增长 2.20%，其中附加值较高的模块化减速机市场份额 稳步提升，全年发货台数以及销售额同比均有所增长。摆线针轮减速机实现营 收 3.85 亿元，同比下降 10.85%，由于下游应用端部分被模块化减速机取代， 加之中小客户需求下滑，发货台数同比下滑较为明显。2）GNORD减速机实现 营收 1.21 亿元，同比下降 15.30%，主要是因为占比较高的锂电行业景气度下 滑，新拓展注塑机、港机、光伏胶膜等领域。3）工程行星实现多领域突破。① 海工：斩获千万级订单；②工程机械：抢占大客户更多供货份额；③光伏：实 现光伏回转减速机从 5 寸到 9 寸机型的系列化开发；④风电：变桨偏航减速机 样品已通过知名主机厂测试；⑤欧式起重机：减速机新品已批量出货。4）谐波 减速器开发多款新品。国茂精密搬迁至常州总部工厂产能提升，开发数控加工 中心（四轴、五轴机床）、高扭矩场景、人形机器人等领域谐波新品。5）公司 工业齿轮箱产品销售数量同比增长约 20%，市占率进一步提升。 请务必阅读正文后的重要声明部分 1 风险提示：下游需求不 ...

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating to "Buy" with a target price of 39.38 CNY for the next six months [1][11]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 21.45 billion CNY in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 12.7%, and a net profit of 2.46 billion CNY, up 44% [2][3]. - The infusion business showed strong performance, with sales revenue reaching 10.11 billion CNY, a growth of 7% [2]. - The innovative platform of Kelun Biotech is progressing, with significant revenue from licensing agreements and ongoing clinical trials for over ten innovative projects [2][11]. - The company expects EPS of 1.79 CNY, 2.06 CNY, and 2.37 CNY for 2024-2026, with net profit growth rates of 16.5%, 15.4%, and 14.7% respectively [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 21.45 billion CNY, with a net profit of 2.46 billion CNY, reflecting a 44% increase [2][3]. - For Q1 2024, the revenue was 6.22 billion CNY, a 10.3% year-on-year increase, and the net profit was 1.03 billion CNY, up 26% [2]. Business Segments - The infusion segment generated sales of 10.11 billion CNY, with a volume of 4.38 billion bottles/bags, marking a 10.6% increase [2]. - The antibiotic intermediates and raw materials segment saw revenue of 4.84 billion CNY, a growth of 23.8% [2][9]. Future Projections - The company forecasts revenue growth rates of 13.44%, 9.91%, 12.71%, and 13.07% for 2023-2026 [3][9]. - The projected net profit for 2024 is 2.86 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 16.46% [3][11]. Valuation Metrics - The report assigns a PE ratio of 22 for 2024, corresponding to the target price of 39.38 CNY [11][12]. - The company’s average PE among comparable firms is 20, indicating a competitive valuation [11].

Investment Rating - The report does not specify a clear investment rating for the company [1]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 1.634 billion yuan in 2023, representing a growth of 65.7%, but the net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 24.9% to 57.58 million yuan [16]. - In Q1 2024, the company reported a revenue of 400 million yuan, a decline of 11.1%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 9.3% to 30 million yuan [16]. - The integration of Yunyang Runying and the supply chain of Fan Yuan has shown positive effects, with significant revenue growth in various segments [16]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.10 yuan per share and a capital reserve conversion of 0.4 shares per share [16]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 1.902 billion yuan, 2.253 billion yuan, and 2.587 billion yuan, with growth rates of 16.4%, 18.4%, and 14.8% respectively [2]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 78.10 million yuan, 102.88 million yuan, and 134.49 million yuan for the years 2024-2026, with growth rates of 35.6%, 31.7%, and 30.7% respectively [2]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.18 yuan, 0.24 yuan, and 0.31 yuan for 2024-2026 [2]. Business Segment Analysis - Probiotics beverage sales are expected to maintain a growth rate of 3% from 2024 to 2026, with price increases anticipated [6]. - The probiotics food segment is projected to see significant growth, with sales growth rates of 85%, 80%, and 40% for 2024-2026, maintaining stable pricing and high gross margins [34]. - The supply chain business is expected to grow at rates of 13%, 10%, and 10% from 2024 to 2026, with a consistent gross margin of 10% [20]. Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for 2023 was 24.4%, with an increase to 29.5% in Q1 2024, indicating a recovery in profitability [16]. - The net profit margin for 2023 was 4%, which improved to 6.5% in Q1 2024 [16]. - The report highlights the impact of business restructuring on profitability, with expectations for gradual recovery as new products are launched and prices are adjusted [16].

[Table_StockInfo] 买入 2024年 04月 26日 （维持） 证券研究报告•23年年报和24年一季报点评 当前价： 19.87元 老白干酒（600559） 食品饮料 目标价： ——元（6个月） 经营变革成效显著，期待业绩持续释放 投资要点 西南证券研究发展中心 [T ab事le件_S：u公mm司a发ry布] 2023年年报和 2024年一季报，2023年实现营业总收入 52.6 [分Ta析bl师e_：Au朱th会or振] 亿元，同比+13.0%，实现归母净利润6.7亿元，同比-5.9%，实现扣非归母净利 执业证号：S1250513110001 润 6.1亿元，同比+28.6%。23年单 Q4实现营业总收入14.1亿元，同比+17.9%， 电话：023-63786049 实现归母净利润 2.5亿元，同比+42.2%，实现扣非归母净利润 2.3亿元，同比 邮箱：zhz@swsc.com.cn 增长+41.3%。24年单 Q1实现营业总收入11.3亿元，同比+12.7%，实现归母 分析师：王书龙 净利润1.4亿元，同比+33.0%，实现扣非归母净利润1.3亿元，同比增长+33.4%， 执业证号： ...

[Table_StockInfo] 买入 2024年 04月 27日 （维持） 证券研究报告•23年报及24年一季报点评 当前价： 186.42元 泸州老窖（000568） 食品饮料 目标价： ——元（6个月） 23 年圆满收官，24Q1 延续高增 投资要点 西南证券研究发展中心 [T ab事le件_S：u公mm司a2ry0]2 3年实现收入 302.3亿元，同比+20.3%，归母净利润 132.5亿 [分Ta析bl师e_：Au朱th会or振] 元，同比+27.8%；其中 23单Q4实现收入 82.9亿元，同比+9.1%，归母净利 润 26.8亿元，同比+24.8%。此外，公司拟每10股派发现金红利54.0元（含税）。 执业证号：S1250513110001 电话：023-63786049 24Q1实现收入91.9亿元，同比+20.7%，归母净利润45.7亿元，同比+23.2%， 邮箱：zhz@swsc.com.cn 24Q1业绩符合市场预期。 分析师：王书龙  国窖、特曲稳健增长，2023年圆满收官。1、2023年外部需求缓慢复苏的背景 下，公司强化消费者培育和渠道建设，国窖、特曲 60版、头曲等单品实 ...

[Table_StockInfo] 买入 2024年 04月 26日 （维持） 证券研究报告•2023年年报点评 当前价： 4.45元 内蒙华电（600863） 公用事业 目标价： 5.41元（6个月） 煤价平滑电价风险，利润正向增长 投资要点 西南证券研究发展中心 [T a事ble件_S：u公mm司a发ry布] 2023年年报及 2024年一季报，2023年公司实现营收 225亿 [分Ta析bl师e_：Au池th天or惠] 元，同比下降2.3%；实现归母净利润20.1亿元，同比增长 13.4%；24Q1实现 执业证号：S1250522100001 归母净利润 55.7亿元，同比下降 7.4%，实现归母净利润 8.9亿元，同比增长 电话：13003109597 3%。 邮箱：cth@swsc.com.cn  标煤价格降低平滑电价风险。报告期内公司电力产品销售实现收入193.5亿元， 分析师：刘洋 同比下降6.8%，毛利率16.34%，同比增长 0.97pp，实现上网电量563亿千瓦 执业证号：S1250523070005 电话：18019200867 时，同比下降 0.6%，其中市场化交易电量占比 97. ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Neutral," indicating that the stock is expected to perform within -10% to 10% relative to the market index over the next six months [3]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 500 million yuan in 2023, a decrease of 9.4% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 18 million yuan, down 33.9% year-on-year. However, the net profit after deducting non-recurring items increased by 370% to 3 million yuan [8][9]. - In Q1 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 70 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, but reported a net loss of 26 million yuan, a significant decline of 774.6% year-on-year [8][9]. - The company is facing short-term performance pressure due to industry policy impacts, increased management and R&D expenses [8][9]. Financial Performance Summary - The company's quarterly revenue for 2023 was as follows: Q1: 70 million yuan (+25%), Q2: 170 million yuan (-7.2%), Q3: 120 million yuan (-13.7%), Q4: 140 million yuan (-18.6%) [8]. - The gross margin for 2023 was 93.6%, an increase of 0.69 percentage points, while the net margin was 2.3%, a decrease of 2.54 percentage points [8]. - The company’s R&D expense ratio was 23.1%, reflecting increased investment in research and development [8]. Product Insights - The clinical III phase of the Staphylococcus aureus vaccine is expected to be completed by 2025, with significant market potential as it targets a large number of surgical patients [9]. - The tetanus vaccine remains a significant revenue contributor, generating 460 million yuan in revenue, a 5.8% increase, with stable sales channels [9]. Earnings Forecast - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 0.19 yuan, 0.31 yuan, and 0.48 yuan, respectively [11]. - Revenue forecasts for 2024 to 2026 are 604 million yuan, 714 million yuan, and 847 million yuan, with growth rates of 21.69%, 18.33%, and 18.54% respectively [12][20]. Valuation Metrics - The company’s price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to decrease from 194 in 2024 to 17 in 2026, indicating improving valuation as earnings grow [12][20]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to rise from 7.68% in 2024 to 14.78% in 2026, reflecting enhanced profitability [12][20].

业绩实现快速增长，航空航天领域表现突出 盈利能力优异，期间费用率持续优化。2023 年，公司毛利率、净利率分别为 51.6%，21.6%，同比分别-1.7pp、-0.1pp；期间费用率为 28.5%，同比-0.9pp。 24Q1，公司毛利率、净利率分别为 53.9%、21.1%，同比分别-3.1pp、+0.8pp； 期间费用率为 30.9%，同比-2.8pp，其中管理、销售费用率同比分别-1.7pp、 -1.8pp。公司毛利率维持在较高水平，营收高增下带来规模效应显现，费用率有 望持续下行。 风险提示：关键核心器件依赖进口、技术路线替代、募投项目进展不及预期等 风险。 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------|--------|--------|-------------------------------|--------| | | | | | | | [Table_MainProfit] 指标 / 年度 | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业收入（百万元） | | | 606 ...