证券研究报告 2024 年 08 月 12 日 湘财证券研究所 金融工程研究 跟踪周报 指数增强策略及因子跟踪周报 相关研究： 1. 《多因子量化选股系列之二： 中 证 500 指 数 增 强 策 略 》 2022.03.30 2. 《多因子量化选股系列之八： 中证1000指数增强策略改进》 2024.03.28 分析师：别璐莎 证书编号：S0500524010001 Tel：(021) 50293663 Email：bls06644 @xcsc.com 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路88号 中国人寿金融中心10楼 核心要点： ❑ 策略表现 指数增强策略逻辑是通过在成分股内优选个股，求解权重，构建能稳定超 额基准指数的策略。我们从估值、财务质量、成长、分析师预期、北向资 金、量价这几个方面来衡量个股表现。 上周，中证 500 指数增强策略收益为-0.38%，同期指数收益为-1.43%，相 较于基准，策略超额收益为 1.05%；中证 1000 指数增强策略收益为-1.86%， 同期指数收益为-2.23%，相较于基准，策略超额收益为 0.37%。 本月，中证 500 指数增强策略收益为-2.22%，同期指数收益为-3 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [2] Core Viewpoints - The recent production halt by BASF due to an incident has led to a supply shortage of Vitamin A and E, which are critical in the feed industry. This is expected to drive prices up and improve market conditions for these vitamins [2] - The recovery of pig farming profits is anticipated to boost the demand for vitamins, particularly as pig feed constitutes the largest portion of total feed production in China [2] - As of August 9, 2024, the wholesale price of live pigs has increased by 42% since the beginning of the year, which is expected to further enhance the profitability of pig farming and consequently the demand for vitamins [2] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The global market for Vitamin A has only seven producers, with BASF holding a 26.7% market share, while Vitamin E has five producers with BASF holding a 13.8% share. This concentration indicates a potential for significant supply disruptions [2] - Recent maintenance shutdowns at other vitamin production facilities are expected to exacerbate supply constraints [2] Price Trends - As of August 9, 2024, Vitamin A prices reached 210 RMB/kg, and Vitamin E prices reached 150 RMB/kg, marking increases of 132% and 62% respectively since July 29, 2024. Year-to-date, these prices have surged by 190% and 152% [2] - The low proportion of vitamin costs in feed means that downstream industries are less sensitive to price increases, suggesting that demand may remain robust despite rising costs [2] Investment Recommendations - Given the supply gap created by BASF's production halt and the anticipated increase in demand due to improved farming profitability, the outlook for Vitamin A and E is positive, warranting an "Overweight" rating for the industry [2]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2]. Core Views - The polyester filament industry is expected to see an upward trend in demand and profitability, with the company positioned as a leading player in the market [3][4]. - The company is enhancing its integrated layout by expanding its PTA production capacity and entering overseas refining projects, which will strengthen its supply chain [4][5]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - Polyester is a significant chemical fiber, with polyester filament accounting for over 80% of China's total polyester production and approximately 66% of the country's chemical fiber output [3][9]. - The main types of polyester filament include Pre-Oriented Yarn (POY), Draw Textured Yarn (DTY), and Fully Drawn Yarn (FDY), each serving different applications in textiles [10][11]. 2. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply-demand landscape for polyester filament is expected to improve, with a projected decrease in new production capacity growth in 2024 and 2025 [3][16]. - Domestic consumption of polyester filament showed a robust increase, with a 32.1% year-on-year growth in the first half of 2024 [20][22]. 3. Company Positioning - The company is a leading producer of polyester filament and short fibers in China, with a current production capacity of 7.4 million tons and a market share exceeding 12% [3][4]. - The company plans to add 400,000 tons of polyester filament capacity in 2024 and 650,000 tons in 2025, focusing on differentiated products [4][19]. 4. Financial Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are estimated at 64.5 billion, 70.3 billion, and 74.6 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with net profits expected to reach 1.82 billion, 2.30 billion, and 2.46 billion yuan [5][4]. - The company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are projected to be 10.5, 8.3, and 7.8 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, indicating a favorable valuation [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry, suggesting a positive outlook for selected companies with strong financing and land acquisition capabilities [5][15]. Core Insights - The recent policy initiatives emphasize the acquisition of unsold residential properties for affordable housing, which is seen as a key strategy for inventory reduction and establishing a dual rental and purchase housing system [4][5]. - Multiple cities have begun implementing policies to support the acquisition of existing residential properties for affordable housing, indicating a broader trend towards addressing housing supply issues [4][12]. - The report highlights that the central bank's re-lending program for affordable housing has significantly increased, with a balance of 121 billion yuan as of June, up from 20 billion yuan in March, indicating strong financial support for these initiatives [4]. Summary by Sections Policy Developments - Since the announcement of the central bank's 300 billion yuan re-lending for affordable housing, several cities have issued guidelines for acquiring unsold residential properties, focusing on locations with good transportation and infrastructure [4][12]. - The report notes that over ten cities have released announcements regarding the collection of properties for affordable housing since mid-May, with specific criteria for property selection [4][12]. Market Outlook - The report suggests that the recent political meetings have reinforced the commitment to inventory reduction and the acquisition of existing properties for affordable housing, which is expected to accelerate market recovery [5][15]. - It is recommended to focus on leading real estate companies with strong financial capabilities and reasonable land reserves, as they are likely to benefit from the supportive policies [5][15].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Overweight" [7] Core Insights - The "Five Major Articles" proposed by the central bank aim to optimize the financial structure and provide direction for financial services to support high-quality economic development [9][10] - The banking sector is expected to leverage the "Five Major Articles" to enhance product creation and service capabilities, addressing the challenges of insufficient business growth momentum [15] Summary by Relevant Sections 1. Overview of the "Five Major Articles" - The "Five Major Articles" include technology finance, green finance, inclusive finance, pension finance, and digital finance, which are crucial for financial structural reform and economic high-quality development [9][10] - These articles emphasize the need for financial services to align with industrial policies and provide effective resource support to the real economy [10] 2. Technology Finance - Banks are the main force in technology finance, with significant growth in loans to technology-oriented small and medium-sized enterprises, reaching CNY 2.7 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 20.4% [11] - The balance of loans to high-tech enterprises reached CNY 14.84 trillion, growing by 13.6% year-on-year [11] - Innovative financing models such as "investment-loan" and "investment-loan-insurance" are being developed to support technology innovation [11] 3. Green Finance - Green finance has seen rapid growth, with green loan balances reaching CNY 33.77 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 35.1% [12] - The green loan growth rate has consistently exceeded 20% since 2019, indicating a strong demand for sustainable financing [12] - The total balance of green bonds has surpassed CNY 1.9 trillion, reflecting the ongoing innovation in green financial products [12] 4. Inclusive Finance - Inclusive finance covers a broad range of clients, including small and micro enterprises, with the balance of inclusive small loans reaching CNY 33.41 trillion, growing by 20.3% year-on-year [12] - The proportion of inclusive small loans in total loans has been steadily increasing, accounting for 25% of loan increments [12] 5. Pension Finance - The pension finance sector is in its early stages, with a total of 273 pension target funds amounting to CNY 645.09 billion as of July 2024 [13] - The third pillar of pension insurance is being actively explored, with significant potential for growth as personal pension products become more diverse [13] 6. Digital Finance - Digital finance is integral to modern economic operations, enhancing the efficiency of financial services and increasing customer engagement through technological applications [14] - Banks are expected to support the digital transformation of enterprises and the digital economy, which is essential for the overall economic development [14] 7. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on state-owned large banks for their high valuation safety and regional banks with strong asset quality and sustainable performance as the economy stabilizes [15]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (首次覆盖) [1] Core Views - The company's performance growth exceeded expectations, with non-interest income contributing significantly [1][3] - The bank's corporate business is expanding steadily, supported by a resilient regional economy [3][4] - Cost-saving effects are becoming evident as the bank manages its liabilities effectively [3][4] - The bank is enhancing its asset quality through increased efforts in non-performing asset disposal [3][4] Summary by Relevant Sections Performance Overview - In H1 2024, the bank's revenue growth reached 7.9%, an increase of 5% from Q1 2024, while net profit growth was 8.5%, up approximately 3% from Q1 2024 [3] - Non-interest income grew significantly by 25.5% year-on-year, driven by improved contributions from bond investment fair value changes and a 13.3% increase in fee income [3] Business Expansion - The bank primarily operates in Jiangsu province, with loan balances in Nanjing and other Jiangsu areas accounting for 25.73% and 59.54%, respectively [3] - Total assets, loans, and deposits grew by 11.7%, 13.5%, and 4.2% year-on-year, respectively, with corporate loans increasing by 12.7% since the beginning of the year [3][4] Cost Management - The average yield on assets decreased by 16 basis points due to asset repricing and declining market interest rates, while deposit costs fell by 8 basis points [3] - The overall cost of liabilities decreased by 7 basis points, indicating potential for further reductions in the future [3][4] Asset Quality - The bank's non-performing loan (NPL) ratio was 0.83%, down 0.07 percentage points from the end of the previous year, with a coverage ratio of 345.02% [3][4] - The bank's proactive approach to non-performing asset disposal has helped maintain stable asset quality [3][4] Shareholder Developments - BNP Paribas increased its stake in the bank, holding 17.68% of shares, which may enhance the bank's operational management and risk control capabilities [4] Financial Projections - The bank's projected net profit growth rates for 2024 to 2026 are 8.1%, 7.6%, and 6.9%, respectively, with corresponding EPS estimates of 1.95, 2.09, and 2.24 yuan [4][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) industry [5]. Core Insights - The TCM sector has shown a relative performance decline of -2% over the past month, -8% over three months, and -4% over twelve months compared to the CSI 300 index [1]. - The TCM index rose by 1.62% last week, while the overall pharmaceutical sector increased by 3.21%, indicating a relatively strong performance in the pharmaceutical industry [2]. - The TCM sector's current PE (ttm) is 24.47X, with a PB (lf) of 2.17X, reflecting a valuation premium of 111.47% over the CSI 300 index [3]. Market Performance - The TCM index closed at 6079.77 points, with a weekly increase of 1.62% [2][9]. - The pharmaceutical sector's performance was bolstered by supportive policies for innovative drugs and expectations of overseas interest rate cuts [2]. Valuation Metrics - The TCM sector's PE (ttm) increased by 0.38X week-on-week, while the PB (lf) rose by 0.04X [3]. - The TCM sector's PE is at the 20.89% percentile and PB at the 3.33% percentile over the past decade [3]. Raw Material Market - The total price index for TCM raw materials decreased by 0.4% last week, indicating insufficient demand and a seasonal market slowdown [4]. Investment Recommendations - Short-term focus on interim report performances, with 4 companies having released their 2024 semi-annual reports, and 8 out of 14 companies reporting positive net profit growth [5]. - Long-term focus on three main lines: 1. "Drug" innovation, emphasizing TCM innovative drugs driven by policy and clinical needs [5][7]. 2. "Drug" rejuvenation, focusing on brand TCM with competitive advantages [7]. 3. State-owned enterprise reform, targeting efficiency improvements in state-controlled enterprises [7].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to Montage Technology (688008 SH) for the first time [2] Core Views - Montage Technology is a leading interconnect chip designer with a complete solution portfolio from DDR2 to DDR5, and has a forward-looking layout in high-speed transmission [2] - DDR5 market penetration is accelerating, with global DDR5 penetration expected to reach 40%-50% in 2024 and 65% in 2025 [2] - The company has a competitive advantage in the DDR5 interface market, having launched DDR5 RCD chips from Gen1 to Gen4 [2] - PCIe Retimer chip demand is becoming more rigid, with the global PCIe Retimer market expected to reach $500 million in 2024, growing at 39% YoY [2] - The company is at the forefront of CKD chip development, with demand expected to reach 200 million units in the next 2-3 years [2] Strategic Layout and Product Lines - Montage Technology focuses on memory interface chips and high-speed interconnect solutions, with products widely used in data centers, cloud computing, and AI [10] - The company has a complete solution portfolio from DDR2 to DDR5 and is a key player in JEDEC standards development [10] - Montage Technology's product lines include memory interface chips, memory module companion chips, MRCD/MDB chips, CKD chips, PCIe Retimer chips, and MXC chips [15] - The company has a strong position in DDR5 RCD chips, being one of the first to launch Gen1 to Gen4 DDR5 RCD chips [20] Market Demand and Growth Drivers - DDR5 market penetration is expected to grow rapidly, driven by server and PC demand, with DDR5 penetration reaching 40%-50% in 2024 and 65% in 2025 [40] - PCIe Retimer chip demand is driven by AI servers, with a typical 8-GPU AI server requiring 8-16 PCIe 5 0 Retimer chips [45] - CKD chip demand is expected to benefit from the AI PC era, with the global AI PC market expected to reach 48 million units in 2024 [49] - The CXL market is expected to grow significantly, with global CXL market size projected to reach $21 billion in 2026 and $158 billion in 2028 [51] Financial Performance and Outlook - The company's revenue and net profit are expected to grow significantly from 2024 to 2026, with net profit projected to reach 1 416 million yuan in 2024, 2 448 million yuan in 2025, and 3 425 million yuan in 2026 [4] - DDR5 product penetration and new product launches are expected to drive revenue and profit growth, with DDR5 Gen2 replacing Gen1 as the mainstream product in 2024 [40] - The company's gross margin is expected to improve as DDR5 products gain market share, with gross margin projected to increase from 58 9% in 2023 to 68 4% in 2026 [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel industry, suggesting a positive outlook for selected companies within the sector [5][21]. Core Views - The steel sector has shown a slight increase of 1.43% recently, outperforming the benchmark index (CSI 300) by 2.16 percentage points, although the overall valuation remains at historical lows [2]. - Demand for steel continues to decline, with a notable drop in production and consumption due to seasonal factors and economic pressures [3][4]. - Steel prices have been on a downward trend, leading to a significant decrease in profitability for steel manufacturers, reaching a year-to-date low [4]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The steel sector's PE valuation stands at 14.44 times, and PB valuation is at 0.81 times, both at historical low percentiles [2]. - The overall steel production has decreased, with a notable drop in the operating rate of sample steel mills to 81.26%, down by 1.05 percentage points week-on-week [3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Total inventory of the five major steel products is 17.47 million tons, showing a slight decrease of 0.63% week-on-week, indicating a slow de-inventory process [3]. - Apparent consumption of the five major steel products has dropped to 8.55 million tons, down 2.32% week-on-week and 4.58% year-on-year, reflecting ongoing weak demand [3][14]. Price and Profitability - The price indices for various steel products have decreased, with rebar prices at 3,391 CNY/ton, down 1.28% week-on-week, contributing to a significant drop in profitability for steel companies [4]. - The profitability rate for 247 sample steel companies has fallen to 6.49%, a decrease of 8.66 percentage points week-on-week, marking a new low for the year [4][15]. Investment Recommendations - In the short term, the steel industry is expected to remain in a weak supply-demand situation, with prices likely to continue fluctuating downwards [5][21]. - Long-term prospects are more favorable for energy-efficient green steel companies, especially following the government's new energy-saving and carbon reduction policies [5][21].