Group 1: Background of Tariff 2.0 - Tariff 2.0 is characterized by a shift in focus from a single target (China) to multiple targets, including traditional allies like Mexico and Canada[3] - The U.S. manufacturing sector has seen a decline in its global share, with China's manufacturing value added reaching $4.7 trillion in 2023, compared to the U.S.'s $2.5 trillion in 2021[5] - The U.S. aims to become a manufacturing superpower under the Republican Party's 2024 platform, with Tariff 2.0 as a key policy[4] Group 2: Objectives of Tariff 2.0 - The primary short-term goal of Tariff 2.0 is to maximize tariff revenue, rather than immediately promoting manufacturing return or reducing trade deficits[9] - U.S. tariff revenue increased significantly from $38.5 billion in 2017 to over $100 billion in 2022, marking a growth of over 160%[17] - Despite the increase in tariffs, the U.S. trade deficit expanded from approximately $800 billion in 2017 to $1.2 trillion by 2024[12] Group 3: Impact on A-shares and Exports - Tariff 2.0 is expected to have a different impact on Chinese exports compared to Tariff 1.0, with a potential for resilience in exports despite a projected slowdown[29] - Investor confidence in internal improvements is likely to outweigh concerns about external risks, making it difficult for Tariff 2.0 to hinder the bullish trend of A-shares[29] - The A-share market experienced a downward trend during Tariff 1.0 but is expected to perform better under Tariff 2.0 due to strategic shifts and technological advancements in China[29] Group 4: Risks and Challenges - Potential risks include sudden geopolitical tensions and shifts in domestic policy focus[31] - The U.S. may face challenges in maintaining its alliance system if it continues to impose tariffs on traditional allies, which could lead to a breakdown of these relationships[28]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Tian Shi Li (600535) based on its stable core assets and growth potential in the pharmaceutical industry [1]. Core Views - The company has shown stable performance despite a slight decline in revenue and net profit in 2024, with total revenue at 8.498 billion yuan, down 2.03% year-on-year, and net profit at 956 million yuan, down 10.78% year-on-year [1][3]. - The pharmaceutical industrial segment achieved revenue of 7.574 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.06%, while the pharmaceutical commercial segment saw a significant decline of 26.39% to 895 million yuan [3]. - The company is entering a harvest period for its R&D pipeline, with 98 products under development, including 33 innovative drugs, and several products expected to receive regulatory approval in 2025 [6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, Tian Shi Li reported total revenue of 8.498 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 2.03%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 956 million yuan, down 10.78% [1][5]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 67.1%, slightly up from 66.8% in 2023, indicating stable profitability [5]. - The company’s operating cash flow decreased by 21.78% to 2.015 billion yuan in 2024 [1]. Business Segments - The pharmaceutical industrial segment generated 7.574 billion yuan in revenue, with growth in traditional Chinese medicine and chemical preparations, while the pharmaceutical commercial segment faced a decline [3]. - Key products such as Compound Danshen Dripping Pills and Yangxue Qingnao Granules showed strong sales growth, indicating resilience in core offerings [3]. R&D and Future Outlook - The company has a robust R&D pipeline with 98 products, including 27 in clinical trials and 2 in the production application stage [6]. - Expected product approvals in 2025 include several innovative drugs, which are anticipated to enhance revenue growth [6]. - The report forecasts revenue growth to 9.051 billion yuan in 2025, with net profit projected to reach 1.186 billion yuan, reflecting a recovery trajectory [5][6].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Tian Shili (600535) based on its stable core assets and growth potential in the pharmaceutical industry [3]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 8.498 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 2.03% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 956 million yuan, down 10.78% year-on-year [3][6]. - Despite the decline in overall revenue, the pharmaceutical manufacturing segment achieved a revenue of 7.574 billion yuan, growing by 2.06% year-on-year, indicating resilience in core operations [3][6]. - The company is entering a harvest period for its R&D pipeline, with 98 products under development, including 33 innovative drugs, which positions it as a leading innovative modern Chinese medicine enterprise [6]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company faced a significant asset impairment loss of 231 million yuan, primarily due to the underperformance of the Amimodipine project, which led to a full impairment provision of 163 million yuan [3][6]. - The forecast for 2025-2027 indicates expected revenues of 9.051 billion yuan, 9.739 billion yuan, and 10.521 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits projected at 1.186 billion yuan, 1.308 billion yuan, and 1.447 billion yuan [5][6]. - The gross profit margin is expected to remain stable, with a slight increase from 67.1% in 2024 to 67.5% in 2027 [5][6]. Business Segment Analysis - The pharmaceutical manufacturing segment's revenue breakdown shows that traditional Chinese medicine generated 6.024 billion yuan, growing by 0.88%, while chemical preparations saw an 8.62% increase to 1.307 billion yuan [3][6]. - The cardiovascular segment achieved a revenue of 5.593 billion yuan, up 4.23%, while the oncology segment grew by 19.91% to 228 million yuan [3][6]. R&D Pipeline and Future Outlook - The company is focusing on accelerating the registration of six key products in 2025, including traditional Chinese medicine formulations and innovative drugs [6]. - The collaboration with China Resources Sanjiu is expected to enhance the company's development prospects and operational efficiency [3][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][5]. Core Insights - The company is significantly benefiting from the AI growth trend, with notable revenue increases in its cloud computing segment, which has surpassed 50% of total revenue for the first time [5]. - The company is positioned in a growth phase, with expectations for rapid expansion in the AI server market, driven by partnerships with major clients and the release of new products [5]. - Revenue and profit forecasts for the company are optimistic, with projected revenues of 609.14 billion, 804.10 billion, and 1,040.30 billion for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E respectively, reflecting year-over-year growth rates of 27.9%, 32.0%, and 29.4% [5]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2024 is expected to be 609.14 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 27.9% [4][5]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 232.16 billion for 2024, with a year-over-year growth of 10.3% [4][5]. - The company's gross margin is expected to be around 7.4% in 2024, with a return on equity (ROE) of 15.3% [4][5]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 1.17 yuan in 2024, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 19.85 [4][5].

证券研究报告 行业研究——周报 [Table_ReportType] 行业周报 [Table_StockAndRank] 机械设备 投资评级 看好 上次评级 看好 [Table_Author] 王锐 机械行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500523080006 邮 箱：wangrui1@cindasc.com 韩冰 机械行业分析师 执业编号：S1500523100001 邮 箱：hanbing1@cindasc.com 寇鸿基 机械行业研究助理 邮箱 寇鸿基 邮 箱：kouhongji@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.，LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127 [Table_Title] 人形机器人催化不断，产业发展加速 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 2 月 24 日 本期内容提要: 【】【】 机械设备[Table_Industry] [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 2 月 24 日 核心观点：人形机器人量产在即，美国增加关税政策落地，建议关注机器 人产业链、美国本土有产能布局的企业，及绩优且具备独立逻辑的个股： 请 ...

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2025 年春运出行创新高，民航出行同比增速居前 [Table_Industry] 交通运输 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 02 月 23 日 证券研究报告 行业研究 [Table_ReportType] 行业数据点评 | [Table_StockAndRank] 交通运输 | | | --- | --- | | 投资评级 | 看好 | | 上次评级 | 看好 | 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Author] 匡培钦 交通运输行业首席分析师 [Table_Title] 2025 年春运出行创新高，民航出行同比增速居前 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 02 月 23 日 本期内容提要: [Table_S [事件： Table_Summary ummary] ] 2025 年春运（1.28~2.22）40 天收官，全社会跨区域人员流动量超 90 亿人次，航空客流量超 9000 万人次，创历史新高。 图4：春运 40 天，民航累计发送旅客量 9020 ...