Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights price increases in the paper industry, stable export growth, and structural growth in sectors such as cross-border e-commerce, baby care, new tobacco, and pet products, alongside the rise of AI in consumer sectors [2][3][4][6][7][8][9] Summary by Sections Paper Industry - In March, pulp prices continued to rise, with Suzano announcing price increases of $20 in Asia and $60 in Europe. Domestic paper companies are expected to raise prices for white card and cultural paper steadily, while packaging paper prices may fluctuate. The demand for specialty paper is growing, and prices are expected to increase slightly during peak seasons. The EU's preliminary anti-dumping duties on Chinese decorative paper are expected to allow Chinese companies to maintain competitive advantages through pricing adjustments [2][3] Exports - Orders remain stable, with varying impacts from tariffs. Companies like 嘉益股份 and 哈尔斯 are expected to see significant order growth, while others with strong overseas production capacities may benefit from order transfers. Cross-border businesses are projected to continue high growth, with some companies expected to achieve around 30% growth in Q1 2025 [3][4] Cross-Border E-commerce - The cross-border business is expected to maintain high growth, with leading sellers likely to see performance improvements. Companies like 赛维时代 and 卡罗特 are projected to achieve over 20% growth in Q1 2025, with some exceeding 30%. The report emphasizes the importance of global supply chain capabilities and product strengths in driving growth [4][5] New Tobacco - The report notes that the U.S. is the largest nicotine market outside of China, with significant growth opportunities for companies like 菲莫国际. The market share for various nicotine products is detailed, indicating a strong potential for HNB products in the U.S. market [5] Consumer Products - Companies like 润本股份 are expected to see growth in offline channels, while new product launches are anticipated to drive sales. The report highlights the competitive advantages of products targeting youth and the increasing functionality of lenses in the eyewear market [6] Home Furnishings - The report anticipates stable growth for home furnishing companies, with specific revenue growth projections for brands like 欧派家居 and 索菲亚. The impact of national subsidies is expected to support growth despite high base pressures [7] Packaging - The packaging sector is projected to benefit from ongoing national subsidies and new product launches, particularly in the smartphone market. Companies like 裕同科技 are expected to gain from these trends [8] Jewelry - 老铺黄金 is forecasted to achieve significant profit growth, supported by brand positioning and new store openings. The report suggests that the brand's strategy will drive sales despite market challenges [9]

证券研究报告 行业研究——周报 [Tabl Table_StockAndRank] 石油加工行业 e_ReportType] 行业评级 ——看好 上次评级——看好 [Table_A 左前明 uthor 能源行业首席分析师 ] 执业编号：S1500518070001 联系电话：010-83326712 邮箱：zuoqianming@cindasc.com 胡晓艺 石化行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524070003 邮箱：huxiaoyi@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDASECURITIESCO.，LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅 大厦B座 邮编：100031 原油周报：俄乌地缘矛盾难解 [Table_T ， itle油价继续保持震荡 ] [Table_ReportDate0] 2025 年 2 月 23 日 本期内容提要： ➢ 【油价回顾】截至 [Table_Summary] 2025年 2月 21 日当周，油价保持区间震荡。近期 原油价格波动集中在地缘问题背后的力量博弈。一方面，美国就俄乌 冲突与俄罗斯进行会谈，俄乌之间有望达成和平协议，俄罗斯风险溢 价有所释放；另外 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" based on the performance of the refining sector and the overall market conditions [96]. Core Insights - The price spread of domestic key refining projects is 2546.52 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 30.31 CNY/ton (-1.18%), while the price spread of foreign key refining projects is 1098.94 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 29.74 CNY/ton (+2.78%) [2][10]. - Brent crude oil weekly average price is 75.49 USD/barrel, with a week-on-week change of -0.21% [2]. - The refining sector is influenced by geopolitical events, such as the attack on the Russian Caspian Pipeline, which has raised concerns about oil supply disruptions, leading to fluctuations in oil prices [10]. - Chemical prices are showing a mixed trend, with polyethylene and polypropylene prices rising, while acrylonitrile prices have significantly decreased due to increased supply and weak demand [10][35]. - The polyester sector is experiencing a downward trend in product prices, with upstream PX, PTA, and MEG prices declining [51][54]. Summary by Sections Refining Sector - The attack on the Russian Caspian Pipeline has led to reduced CPC oil flow, raising concerns about supply disruptions and supporting oil prices [10]. - Domestic diesel and gasoline price spreads are weakening, while aviation fuel price spreads are strengthening [10]. - The stock price performance of six major refining companies shows mixed results, with some companies experiencing declines while others have seen slight increases [80]. Chemical Sector - Polyethylene prices are stable with slight increases, while EVA prices are rising due to tight market conditions and increased demand from the photovoltaic sector [35]. - Acrylonitrile prices have dropped significantly due to increased supply and slow recovery in the end market [41]. - MMA prices continue to decline, with a narrowing price spread [41]. Polyester Sector - The polyester industry is facing downward pressure on prices, with increased supply from new production facilities and weak demand from downstream markets [58]. - The average price of PET bottle chips is 6302.86 CNY/ton, with an average profit margin of -246.25 CNY/ton [74].

新型储能制造业高质量发展行动方案出台，降温驱动美国 HH 气价大幅上涨 【】【】[Table_Industry] 公用事业—电力天然气周报 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 2 月 22 日 15666646523.tcy 证券研究报告 行业研究——周报 [Table_ReportType] 行业周报 [Table_StockAndRank] 公用事业 投资评级 看好 上次评级 看好 [Table_Author] 左前明 能源行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500518070001 联系电话：010-83326712 邮 箱：zuoqianming@cindasc.com 李春驰 电力公用联席首席分析师 执业编号：S1500522070001 联系电话：010-83326723 邮 箱：lichunchi@cindasc.com 邢秦浩 电力公用分析师 化工行业： 执业编号：S1500524080001 联系电话：010-83326712 邮 箱：xingqinhao@cindasc.com 唐婵玉 电力公用研究助理 邮 箱：tangchanyu@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 ...

证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 [Table_StockAndRank] 傲基股份(2519.HK) 投资评级 上次评级 [Table_Author] 姜文镪 新消费行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524120004 邮箱：jiangwenqiang@cindasc.com 骆峥 轻工制造行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525020001 邮 箱：luozheng1@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 傲基股份：海外家具家居头部品牌，商流物流 协同发展 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 2 月 23 日 [Table_S 事件：聚焦跨境，格局改善。 ummary] 据 theloadstar 在 2 月 13 日报道，美国此前 暂停实施的"取消 800 美元免税额度"政策将于 4 月 1 日根据联邦机构的建议 进行"复审"。我们认为，关税影响以短期为主，不改国货出海大势；此外， 头部精品卖 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "Positive" [2][6] Core Viewpoints - The steel industry is currently facing supply-demand contradictions, but with the implementation of "stabilizing growth" policies, overall steel demand is expected to remain stable or slightly increase due to support from real estate stabilization, steady infrastructure investment, and continued manufacturing development [6] - The industry is expected to maintain a balanced supply-demand situation, with a tightening supply under the expectation of production control policies and increasing industry concentration [6] - High-end steel products are anticipated to benefit from macro trends of high-quality economic development and new productive forces, particularly those with high barriers and added value [6] Weekly Market Performance - The steel sector rose by 0.26%, underperforming the broader market, with specific segments showing varied performance: special steel down 0.26%, long products down 1.47%, and flat products up 0.64% [4][8] - Iron ore prices fell by 1.90%, while steel consumption increased significantly, with five major steel product consumption rising by 19.77% week-on-week [4][25] Supply Data - As of February 21, the average daily pig iron output was 2.2751 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 0.48% [19] - The capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces was 85.4%, down 0.19 percentage points week-on-week, while electric furnace utilization increased by 26.49 percentage points to 40.1% [19] Demand Data - The consumption of five major steel products reached 7.944 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 131.12 thousand tons [25] - The transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 104 thousand tons, up 71.09% week-on-week [25] Inventory Data - Social inventory of five major steel products was 13.14 million tons, an increase of 34.20 thousand tons week-on-week [33] - Factory inventory of five major steel products was 5.502 million tons, up 7.44 thousand tons week-on-week [35] Price & Profit Data - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel was 3625.5 yuan/ton, up 1.29% week-on-week, while the special steel index was 6773.6 yuan/ton, showing a slight increase [42] - The profit for rebar produced in electric furnaces was -195.5 yuan/ton, and for blast furnaces, it was -165.11 yuan/ton, indicating a decline in profitability [48]

证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 [Table_StockAndRank] 青岛港(601298) | 投资评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 上次评级 | 买入 | [Table_Author] 匡培钦 交运行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524070004 邮箱：kuangpeiqin@cindasc.com 黄安 交运行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524110001 邮箱：huangan@cindasc.com 相关研究 [Table_OtherReport] 青岛港（601298.SH）2024 年三季报点 评：Q3 扣非归母净利润+9%，投资收益 显著改善 青岛港（601298.SH）事件点评：重大 重组方案获上交所受理，进度有序推 进 青岛港（601298.SH）2024 年半年报点 评：归母净利润+3.05%，整体维持稳 增 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 青岛港（601298.SH）事件点评：重 ...

证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 [Table_StockAndRank] 兖矿能源(600188) 左前明 能源行业首席分析师 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDASECURITIESCO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲 127 金隅大厦 B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 兖煤澳洲：增产降本兑现分红，储备现金赋 能成长 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 2 月 22 日 [Table_S 事件：202ummar 5 年y] 2 月 20 日晚，兖矿能源的海外核心子公司兖煤澳大利亚 （3668.HK）发布 2024 年业绩，对此我们点评如下： 点评： 2024 年兖煤澳大利亚实现商品煤权益产量 3690 万吨，同比增加 10%； 商品煤销量 3770 万吨，同比增加 14%。销量高于产量，主要是铁路事 故导致的前期库存累计，当前铁路事故对销量的影响基本褪去。分煤种 来看，2024 年动力煤销量为 3250 万吨，同比增加 14%；冶金煤销量 为 520 万吨，同比增加 11%。分季度来看，2024Q1-4，公司商品煤权 益产量 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The company has released a profit forecast for 2024, expecting a net profit of 1.4 to 1.5 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 236% to 260% [1] - The significant growth in 2024 is attributed to the continuous expansion of brand influence, product optimization, and channel expansion [2] - The company plans to increase its store count by 7 in 2024 and optimize 4 existing stores, enhancing its market presence [2] - The company maintains a strong gross margin of 41-43% since 2020, with net profit margins improving to 13.1% and 16.7% in 2023 and the first half of 2024, respectively [2] Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 85.91 billion, 136.77 billion, and 179.18 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 170%, 59%, and 31% respectively [3] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 1.473 billion, 2.506 billion, and 3.426 billion yuan, with growth rates of 254%, 70%, and 37% respectively [3] - The company is expected to maintain a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 58, 34, and 25 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [3] Key Financial Metrics - The company reported a revenue of 3.18 billion yuan in 2023, with projections of 8.591 billion yuan in 2024, 13.677 billion yuan in 2025, and 17.918 billion yuan in 2026 [5] - The net profit for 2023 was 416 million yuan, with forecasts of 1.473 billion yuan in 2024, 2.506 billion yuan in 2025, and 3.426 billion yuan in 2026 [5] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 8.75 yuan in 2024, 14.88 yuan in 2025, and 20.35 yuan in 2026 [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 1.4 to 1.5 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 236% to 260% [1] - The significant growth in 2024 is attributed to the continuous expansion of brand influence, product optimization, and channel expansion [2] - The company plans to launch 161 new products and iterate 167 existing products in 2024, maintaining a high frequency of product updates [2] - The company's direct sales model is expected to contribute to substantial profit elasticity, leading to a net profit forecast that exceeds expectations [2] Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 85.91 billion, 136.77 billion, and 179.18 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 170%, 59%, and 31% [3] - The expected net profits for the same years are 1.473 billion, 2.506 billion, and 3.426 billion yuan, with growth rates of 254%, 70%, and 37% [3] - The company's P/E ratios based on the closing price on February 21 are projected to be 58, 34, and 25 for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [3] Key Financial Metrics - The company's gross margin has remained stable between 41% and 43% since 2020, with net margins increasing to 13.1% and 16.7% in 2023 and the first half of 2024 [2] - The company plans to increase its store count by 7 in 2024 and optimize 4 existing stores [2] - The company's cash flow from operating activities is projected to improve significantly, reaching 2.343 billion yuan by 2026 [7]