2024 年我国风光消纳率近 95%，天然气表观消费量同比增长 8% 【】【】[Table_Industry] 公用事业—电力天然气周报 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 2 月 8 日 执业编号：S1500524080001 联系电话：010-83326712 邮 箱：xingqinhao@cindasc.com 上次评级 看好 [Table_Author] 左前明 能源行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500518070001 联系电话：010-83326712 邮 箱：zuoqianming@cindasc.com 李春驰 电力公用联席首席分析师 邢秦浩 电力公用分析师 15666646523.tcy 证券研究报告 行业研究——周报 [Table_ReportType] 行业周报 [Table_StockAndRank] 公用事业 投资评级 看好 化工行业： 唐婵玉 电力公用研究助理 邮 箱：tangchanyu@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.，LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦 B座 邮编：100031 [Table ...

节后市场情绪乐观，贴水收窄 VIX 下降 [Table_ReportTime] 2025 年 2 月 8 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 [Table_FirstAuthor] 于明明 金融工程与金融产品首席分析师 执业编号：S1500521070001 联系电话：+86 18616021459 邮 箱：yumingming@cindasc.com 证券研究报告 金工研究 [T金工ableReportType] 点评报告 于明明 金融工程与金融产品 首席分析师 执业编号：S1500521070001 联系电话：+86 18616021459 邮 箱：yumingming@cindasc.com 崔诗笛 金融工程与金融产品 金融工程分析师 执业编号：S1500523080001 联系电话：+86 18516560686 邮 箱：cuishidi@cindasc.com 孙石 金融工程与金融产品 金融工程分析师 执业编号：S1500523080010 联系电话：+86 18817366228 邮 箱：sunshi@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Geely Automobile is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but the report indicates a positive outlook based on sales performance and strategic initiatives [2]. Core Insights - Geely's January sales reached 267,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 24.9% and a month-on-month increase of 27.0%. The Geely brand alone sold 225,000 units, up 30.1% year-on-year and 43.3% month-on-month [2]. - The Galaxy model saw significant growth, with sales of 94,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 134.2% and a month-on-month increase of 34.7% [2]. - The company is expanding its product matrix, with new models such as the Galaxy L6 EM-i and Lynk & Co 900, which are expected to contribute to sales growth [2]. - Geely is deepening its global strategic layout, with the opening of its first CKD factory in the Middle East and plans for local assembly in various regions, enhancing its competitive edge [2]. - The report highlights the ongoing advancement of Geely's smart technology, including the development of a native autonomous vehicle in collaboration with Waymo [2]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year 2023, Geely's revenue is projected at 179.2 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 21%. Revenue is expected to reach 243.3 billion in 2024, 330.8 billion in 2025, and 421.0 billion in 2026, with respective growth rates of 36% [3][4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 5.3 billion in 2023, increasing to 16.0 billion in 2024, before declining to 12.4 billion in 2025, and then rising again to 16.9 billion in 2026 [3][4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 0.51 in 2023, increasing to 1.59 in 2024, then decreasing to 1.24 in 2025, and finally reaching 1.68 in 2026 [3][4]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 15.76 for 2023, decreasing to 10.44 in 2024, then increasing to 13.42 in 2025, and finally dropping to 9.88 in 2026 [3][4].

证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 点评报告 [Table_Title] 1 月出海表现亮眼，智能化进程加速推进 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 2 月 7 日 [Table_S ➢ 事件ummar ：比亚迪发布 y] 1 月销量。1 月销量合计 30.1 万辆，同比+49.2%， 环比-41.6%。其中，新能源乘用车销量 29.6 万辆，同比+47.5%，环比 -41.8%；纯电动乘用车销量 12.5 万辆，同比+19.1%，环比-39.6%； 插电混动乘用车销量 17.1 万辆，同比+78.7%，环比-43.3%。1 月海外 销售新能源乘用车合计 6.6 万辆，同比+83.4%，环比+16.1%。 [Table_StockAndRank] 比亚迪(002594.SZ) | | | 上次评级 买入 | 邓健全 汽车行业首席分析师 | | | --- | --- | | 执业编号：S1500525010002 | | | 联系电话：13613012393 | | | 箱：dengjianquan@cindasc.com | 邮 | | 武浩 电新行业首席分析师 | ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the tire industry Core Insights - The U.S. market for tire imports is showing a robust growth trend, with a 5.69% year-on-year increase in the number of imported semi-steel tires in 2024, reaching a record high of 208 million units [4][67] - The overall demand for tires remains stable, supported by consistent gasoline and diesel consumption, as well as stable automotive sales in the U.S. [57] Summary by Sections U.S. Market - Retail sales in the U.S. automotive parts and tire stores were at $10.974 billion in December 2024, a 2.70% decrease month-on-month but a 4.77% increase year-on-year [4][57] - Gasoline consumption in January 2025 was 8.3044 million barrels per day, a 4.86% decrease month-on-month but a 1.84% increase year-on-year [57] - Diesel consumption was 4.046 million barrels per day, showing a 4.87% increase month-on-month and a 10.71% increase year-on-year [57] - Automotive sales in January 2025 were 1.1125 million units, a 25.40% decrease month-on-month but a 2.36% increase year-on-year [57] Import Market - In 2024, the U.S. imported 208 million semi-steel tires, a 5.69% increase year-on-year, and 18.98 million steel tires, a 9.12% increase year-on-year [4][65] - The U.S. imported 50.87 million semi-steel tires from Thailand, a 19.20% increase year-on-year, and 7.13 million steel tires, a 0.43% increase year-on-year [65][66] - Imports from Vietnam included 21.36 million semi-steel tires, a 19.18% increase year-on-year, and 3.03 million steel tires, a 36.02% increase year-on-year [66] - Imports from Cambodia saw a significant increase, with 12.69 million semi-steel tires (75.99% increase) and 1.19 million steel tires (1523% increase) [66] Raw Material Prices - The tire raw material price index in January 2025 was 173.03, a 2.16% decrease month-on-month but a 6.38% increase year-on-year [6] - The average price of natural rubber was 16,710 yuan/ton, down 3.46% month-on-month but up 27.75% year-on-year [6][7] - The average price of styrene-butadiene rubber was 15,291 yuan/ton, up 2.67% month-on-month and 25.09% year-on-year [6][7] - The average price of rebar was 3,467 yuan/ton, down 1.04% month-on-month and down 14.39% year-on-year [6][7] - The average price of carbon black was 7,008 yuan/ton, down 5.06% month-on-month and down 13.77% year-on-year [6][7] Production and Export - In December 2024, China's rubber tire production was 105.56 million units, a 2.04% increase month-on-month and a 21.51% increase year-on-year [23] - Exports of new inflatable rubber tires from China were 6.059 million units, an 8.12% increase month-on-month and a 14.41% increase year-on-year [23] - The average operating rate for semi-steel tires in January 2025 was 65.88%, a 5.70 percentage point decrease year-on-year [22] Consumer Demand - The replacement market shows resilience, with stable demand in the U.S. [34] - Global tire replacement market growth in December 2024 was +1%, with North America at +7% and Europe at +5% [34]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but the analysis suggests a positive outlook based on growth projections and market expansion opportunities. Core Insights - The company has received a new project notification from a major domestic automotive group to supply integrated brake control modules (IBS onebox) for two new energy vehicle models, with a total sales amount of approximately 1 billion yuan over a project lifecycle of 5 years, starting mass production in Q1 2026 [1]. - The company is actively expanding its product offerings in electronic control systems, having initiated 75 new projects in the first half of 2024, with 37 related to automotive electronic control systems [2]. - The company is also making strides in international markets, having been selected as a supplier for EPB products for a foreign brand, with a project lifecycle of 8 years and an estimated sales amount of 3.8 billion yuan, starting mass production in 2026 [2]. - The company expects a significant increase in net profit for 2024, projected between 190 million to 220 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 96% to 127% due to market expansion and cost reduction efforts [2]. - Profit forecasts indicate a continued upward trend in net profit from 205 million yuan in 2024 to 295 million yuan in 2026, with corresponding EPS increasing from 0.28 yuan to 0.40 yuan [2]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 3.874 billion yuan in 2023 to 5.712 billion yuan in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 14.3% [3]. - The gross profit margin is expected to improve from 16.7% in 2023 to 17.9% in 2026, indicating enhanced profitability [3]. - The return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to rise from 3.5% in 2023 to 10.0% in 2026, reflecting improved financial performance [3]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 68.46 in 2023 to 22.51 in 2026, suggesting that the stock may become more attractive as earnings grow [3].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a positive outlook for the company, indicating a potential turnaround in profitability for 2024 with a projected net profit of 5.768 billion to 6 billion yuan, marking a significant recovery from previous losses [3][4]. Core Insights - The company delivered 12,000 units of the Wanjie M9 in January, maintaining its position as the top-selling luxury vehicle in China for the past ten months [3]. - The overall sales in January totaled 22,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 45.8% and a month-on-month decline of 45.9% [3]. - The company expects a substantial increase in revenue for 2024, projecting total revenue between 144.2 billion and 146.7 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 302.32% to 309.30% [3][4]. Sales Performance - The sales of new energy vehicles reached 18,000 units in January, down 51.4% year-on-year and 52.0% month-on-month [3]. - The Wanjie M8 is anticipated to contribute significantly to sales growth, with its specifications and dual-motor all-wheel-drive version already approved for production [3]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts a total sales volume of 497,000 units for 2024, which is a year-on-year increase of 96.3% [3]. - The projected gross profit margin for 2024 is expected to be around 25.3%, with net profit margins improving significantly as the company scales its operations [4]. Earnings Forecast - The report estimates the company's net profit for 2024 to be between 5.768 billion and 6 billion yuan, with further increases projected for 2025 and 2026 [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise to 3.82 yuan in 2024, with continued growth anticipated in subsequent years [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Qilu Bank [4]. Core Views - Qilu Bank's total assets reached nearly 690 billion yuan by the end of 2024, marking a year-on-year growth of 14%. The bank's loan total was 337.14 billion yuan, up 12.31% year-on-year, while deposits increased by 10.42% to 439.54 billion yuan [4]. - The bank's operating income for 2024 was 12.50 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.55%, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.99 billion yuan, up 17.77% year-on-year [4]. - The non-performing loan ratio decreased by 7 basis points to 1.19%, and the provision coverage ratio improved by 18.8 percentage points to 322.38%, indicating a solid asset quality [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Qilu Bank's operating income for 2024 was 12,495.40 million yuan, with a growth rate of 4.55% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 4,986.13 million yuan, with a growth rate of 17.77% year-on-year [6]. - The bank's EPS for 2024 is projected to be 1.03 yuan, with forecasts of 1.20 yuan and 1.40 yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively [4][6]. Asset Quality - By the end of 2024, Qilu Bank's non-performing loan ratio was 1.19%, down 7 basis points from the previous year, and the provision coverage ratio was 322.38%, indicating a strong safety margin [4]. - The bank's core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio was 10.26% as of Q3 2024, positioning it favorably compared to peers [4]. Growth Prospects - The report anticipates that Qilu Bank will benefit from growth in corporate, county-level, and green-related business revenues, supporting stable performance in the coming years [4]. - The bank's loan-to-deposit ratio stood at 76.7%, suggesting significant room for further lending [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the electricity industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The overall electricity consumption growth rate in December stabilized and rebounded, with the management measures for distributed photovoltaic officially released [2][4] - The electricity demand growth in 2024 is expected to be driven by high-tech manufacturing and consumption sectors, while high-energy-consuming industries may experience fluctuations [4][12] - The report anticipates that macro policies will support the expansion of high-tech industries and the recovery of high-energy-consuming sectors in 2025 [12] Monthly Electricity Demand Analysis - In December 2024, the total electricity consumption reached 883.5 billion kWh, with a year-on-year growth of 3.27% [17] - The growth rates for the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries in December were 7.69%, 2.24%, and 5.30%, respectively, while residential electricity consumption grew by 5.01% [19] - The overall electricity consumption growth showed a "high first, low later" trend throughout the year, influenced by base effects and economic activities [9][10] Monthly Electricity Supply Analysis - In December 2024, the total electricity generation was 846.24 billion kWh, with a year-on-year increase of 0.60% [42] - The generation from thermal power decreased by 2.60%, while solar power generation increased significantly by 28.50% [42] - The report highlights a shift towards renewable energy sources, with solar and wind power showing substantial growth [42][43] Investment Strategy and Key Listed Companies - The report suggests that the electricity sector is likely to see profit improvement and value reassessment due to past supply-demand tensions [6] - Key beneficiaries identified include coal-electricity integrated companies such as Xinji Energy and Shaanxi Energy, as well as national coal-electric leaders like Guodian Power and Huaneng International [6] - The report emphasizes the potential for improved performance among electricity operators due to favorable policies and market conditions [6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The cumulative inter-regional passenger flow reached 5.48 billion trips, a year-on-year increase of 7.5%, and up 21.4% compared to the same period in 2019 [3][5] - The railway and civil aviation passenger volumes for the first 22 days of the Spring Festival were 280 million and 49.99 million respectively, with year-on-year increases of 7.0% and 6.0% [3][6][8] - Daily average passenger volume and flight volume during the Spring Festival increased by 1.6% and 2.3% respectively compared to the previous year [3] - Domestic travel during the Spring Festival reached 501 million trips, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, with total spending of 677 billion yuan, up 7.0% [3] - The average economy class ticket price during the Spring Festival was 959 yuan, down 16.6% year-on-year [3] Summary by Sections Passenger Flow Data - Cumulative inter-regional passenger flow for the first 22 days of the Spring Festival was 5.48 billion trips, with a year-on-year increase of 7.5% and a 21.4% increase compared to 2019 [3][5] - Railway passenger volume reached 280 million, with a year-on-year increase of 7.0% [6] - Civil aviation passenger volume reached 49.99 million, with a year-on-year increase of 6.0% [8] Travel Trends - Daily average passenger volume during the Spring Festival was 2.286 million, with a year-on-year increase of 1.6% [3] - Domestic travel increased significantly, with popular destinations including Harbin, Xiamen, and traditional cultural sites [3] Economic Impact - Total domestic travel spending during the Spring Festival was 677 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 7.0% [3] - The average ticket price for economy class flights was 959 yuan, reflecting a decrease due to lower fuel surcharges [3]