Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance today, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.08% to close at 3051.28 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.90% to 9255.68 points. The ChiNext Index decreased by 2.16% to 1781.07 points. Overall, nearly 4100 stocks rose throughout the day, with total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets amounting to 716.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 129.08 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [16][26]. Sector Performance - Among the major sectors, the environmental protection, real estate, comprehensive, commercial retail, public utilities, and textile and apparel sectors led the gains, while the electric equipment, food and beverage, home appliances, telecommunications, electronics, non-bank financials, and pharmaceutical sectors experienced declines [7][24]. Key Concepts - The top-performing concept sectors included aquaculture, energy conservation and environmental protection, cross-strait integration, new urbanization, water conservancy and hydropower construction, urban village renovation, photolithography machines, and cross-border e-commerce [24]. Trading Insights - The report indicates that the market is currently experiencing a phase of volatility, with significant fluctuations in various sectors. Investors are advised to remain cautious and consider the overall market trends before making investment decisions [35].

投资策略研究 今日关注 风险提示 目 图表目录 2 / 6 图表1:今日主要指数涨跌幅(%)及板块表现 请务必阅读最后特别声明与免责条款 二、风险提示 分析师简介 粤开证券具备证券投资咨询业务资格，经营证券业务许可证编号：10485001。 本公司在知晓范围内履行披露义务。 请务必阅读最后特别声明与免责条款 www.ykzq.com 5 / 6 本公司在法律允许的情况下可参与、投资或持有本报告涉及的证券或进行证券交易，或向本报告涉及的公司提供或争取 提供包括投资银行业务在内的服务或业务支持。本公司可能与本报告涉及的公司之间存在业务关系，并无需事先或在获得业 务关系后通知客户。 北京市西城区广安门外大街 377 号 2024 年 06 月 06 日 投资要点 行业涨跌情况：今日申万一级行业除煤炭、家用电器、有色金属、石油石化 等 4 个行业外全线下跌，综合、环保、社会服务、计算机、纺织服饰、轻工 制造等行业领跌。 请务必阅读最后特别声明与免责条款 www.ykzq.com 1 / 6 一、市场回顾 请务必阅读最后特别声明与免责条款 策略点评 -上证指数 -创业板指 —深圳成指(右轴) 4000 20000 35 ...

策略点评 资料来源：wind、粤开证券研究院 www.ykzq.com 三大股指：沪指收跌0.83%，深证成指收跌0.8%，创业板指收跌0.54% 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 上证指数 创业板指 深圳成指(右轴） 三大股指：沪指收跌-0.22%，深证成指收跌-0.3%，创业板指收涨0.19% 二、风险提示 粤开证券具备证券投资咨询业务资格，经营证券业务许可证编号：10485001。 本公司在知晓范围内履行披露义务。 行业投资评级标准 报告发布日后的 12 个月内行业股票指数的涨跌幅度相对同期沪深 300 指数的涨跌幅为基准，投资建议的评级标准为： 增持：我们预计未来报告期内，行业整体回报高于基准指数 5%以上； 中性：我们预计未来报告期内，行业整体回报介于基准指数-5%与 5%之间； 减持：我们预计未来报告期内，行业整体回报低于基准指数 5%以下。 免责声明 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。投资者不应将本报告作为作出投资决策的唯一参考因素，亦不应认为本报告可以取代自己的 判断。在决定投资前，如有需要，投资者务必向专业人士咨询并 ...

2024 年 06 月 05 日 投资要点 投资策略研究 今日关注 行业涨跌情况：今日申万一级行业除国防军工外全线下跌，房地产、有色金 属、传媒、纺织服饰、轻工制造、石油石化等行业领跌。 风险提示 请务必阅读最后特别声明与免责条款 www.ykzq.com 1 / 6 录 指数涨跌情况：今日 A 股主要指数悉数下跌。截止收盘，沪指跌 0.83%，收报 3065.40 点；深证成指跌 0.80%，收报 9393.61 点；科创 50 跌 0.21%，收报 752.04 点；创业板指跌 0.54%，收报 1833.55 点。总体上，全天个股跌多涨 少，Wind 数据显示，全市场近 4600 只个股下跌。沪深两市今日成交额合计 6886 亿元，较上个交易日缩量 571.34 亿元。 板块涨跌情况：今日涨幅居前概念板块为锂电负极、军工信息化、半导体硅 片、智能交通、航母、无线充电、卫星导航、无人驾驶、汽车芯片、百度平 台、智能音箱 IGBT、十大军工集团、中航系、机器视觉等板块。 二、风险提示 图表目录 图表 1: 今日主要指数涨跌幅（%）及板块表现. 2 / 6 策略点评 三大股指：沪指收跌0.83%，深证成指收跌 ...

Group 1: Capacity Utilization Trends - The long-term average of U.S. industrial capacity utilization has declined from 85%-90% in the 1970s to around 80% in the current century[72] - Capacity utilization rates are primarily influenced by fluctuations in the production index, which is closely tied to economic cycles[46] - The U.S. industrial capacity utilization rate has shown a long-term downward trend, indicating potential structural overcapacity issues[73] Group 2: Shale Oil Revolution - The U.S. shale oil production surged from approximately 1 million barrels per day in 2005 to over 10 million barrels per day by 2018, significantly impacting global oil supply[48] - International oil prices fell by 70% from mid-2014 due to oversupply driven by the shale oil boom, leading to a crisis in the oil sector[4] - The U.S. government lifted a 40-year ban on crude oil exports in December 2015 to help mitigate overcapacity, further pressuring international oil prices[31] Group 3: Coal Industry Challenges - The U.S. coal industry faced a long-term overcapacity crisis post-2008 financial crisis, with capacity utilization dropping from nearly 90% in 2009 to around 60% before the pandemic[53] - Coal production peaked at 1.17 billion short tons in 2008 but fell to 594 million short tons by 2022, a decline of approximately 50%[53] - The coal industry's capacity index decreased by 42% from its peak in 2009 to an average of 104 in 2022, reflecting significant overcapacity issues[53] Group 4: Communication Equipment Sector - The U.S. communication equipment industry experienced a capacity boom in the late 1990s, with capacity utilization dropping from 95% in early 2000 to below 40% by the end of 2002 due to the dot-com bubble burst[12] - The recovery of the communication sector was driven by mergers and acquisitions, alongside sustained global demand for broadband and internet services[12]

Market Review - Major indices in A-shares collectively rose today, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 0.41% to close at 3091.20 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rising by 1.05% to 9469.32 points, and the ChiNext Index up by 1.33% to 1843.59 points [3][5][7] - Overall, the market saw more declines than gains, with nearly 3100 stocks falling. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 745.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 84.986 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [3][5][7] Sector Performance - The leading sectors today included near-term new stocks, ultra-high voltage, hydropower, high送转, selected Chinese medicine, real estate, thermal power, aviation transportation, excavators, virtual power plants, selected electric power stocks, high-end equipment manufacturing, generic drugs, and selected rare metals [12][25] - Conversely, sectors that experienced declines included coal, electronics, and environmental protection [25][33] Industry Trends - The report indicates that the first-level sectors of Shenwan saw more gains than losses, with electric power equipment, real estate, beauty care, pharmaceutical biology, building materials, and public utilities leading the gains. In contrast, coal, electronics, environmental protection, computers, machinery, and social services were among the sectors that declined [33]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced narrow fluctuations today, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.27% to close at 3078.49 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.07% to 9370.50 points. The ChiNext Index increased by 0.79% to 1819.46 points. Overall, there were more decliners than gainers, with nearly 4400 stocks declining across the market. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 830.7 billion yuan, a significant increase of 115.74 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1][2][6]. Sector Performance - Among the concept sectors, the top gainers included the chicken industry, memory storage, optical modules (CPO), high-speed copper connections, pig industry, semiconductor equipment, the SMIC industry chain, GPU, selected shipping, the National Big Fund, semiconductor selection, optical communication, the NVIDIA industry chain, and others [2][6]. - In terms of industry performance, the leading sectors included telecommunications, electronics, household appliances, public utilities, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and coal, while sectors such as comprehensive, steel, non-ferrous metals, environmental protection, social services, and light industry manufacturing saw declines [6].

宏观研究 【粤开宏观】中国"新三样"是否产 能过剩？——"产能过剩"系列之二 新能源汽车方面，市场竞争激烈，车企通过"价格战"以谋求更多市场份 额。当前国内汽车市场约有 150 个活跃品牌，品牌数量过多导致资源分散、 竞争压力增大。中汽协数据显示，2023 年汽车销量排名前十的企业集团市占 率为 85.4%，较 2022 年下降 1.7 个百分点。据乘联会统计，2024 年一季度共 67 款车型降价，其中 55 款为新能源车型。 宏观深度 请务必阅读最后特别声明与免责条款 www.ykzq.com 7 / 17 宏观深度 我国动力电池全球份额超 70%，储能电池超 90%，国际竞争力持续增强，装机量 前 10 的电池厂商中我国企业占据 6 席。 出口情况：2023 年，我国动力和其他电池合计累计出口达 152.6 吉瓦时，约占总产 量的 20%。其中，动力电池占比 83.5%，累计出口 127.4 吉瓦时，累计同比增长 87.1%。 从金额看，据中国化学与物理电源行业协会统计，锂电池累积出口额为 650.1 亿美元， 同比增长 27.8%。出口第一大市场仍为美国，出口金额为 135.5 亿美元，同比增长 33 ...

证券研究报告 | 策略点评 投资策略研究 今日主要指数涨跌幅：A 股三大指数今日震荡下行，沪指涨跌幅为-0.16%， 深证成指涨跌幅为-0.22%，创业板指涨跌幅为-0.44%。沪深两市成交额 7150 亿元，较上个交易日小幅萎缩近。 风险提示 策略点讲 一、市场回顾 图表 1: 今日主要指数涨跌幅（%）及概念板块表现… 2 / 6 www.ykzq.com 请务必阅读最后特别声明与免责条款 www.ykzq.com 4 / 6 本报告署名分析师在此声明：本人具有中国证券业协会授予的证券投资咨询执业资格或相当的专业胜任能力，在执业过 程中恪守独立诚信、勤勉尽职、谨慎客观、公平公正的原则，独立、客观地出具本报告，结论不受任何第三方的授意或影响。 本报告反映了本人的研究观点，不曾因，不因，也将不会因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观点而直接或间接接收到任何形式的 报酬。 股票投资评级标准 策略点评 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。投资者不应将本报告作为作出投资决策的唯一参考因素，亦不应认为本报告可以取代自己的 判断。在决定投资前，如有需要，投资者务必向专业人士咨询并谨慎决策。 网址：www.ykzq.com 图表1: 今日主要指 ...

这一轮产能过剩的成因较为复杂。一是 2008 年国际金融危机后"四万亿"投 资计划以及房地产刺激政策导致基础设施投资、制造业投资高速发展，助推 钢铁、水泥、玻璃等产能快速扩张；二是地方政府对重复投资的主动推动和 盲目刺激；三是人口、环境等资源禀赋发生变化，国内经济发展阶段转换， 增速换挡，需求增速回落；四是财政、金融等资源配置扭曲，向产能过剩领 域倾斜，僵尸企业缺乏退出通道，导致"越补越亏、越亏越补"的恶性循环； 五是行业小、散、弱特征明显，难以应对宏观经济冲击。 《【粤开宏观】从房企年报看房地产风险： 经营业绩与债务特征》2024-05-27 《【粤开宏观】新一轮房地产去库存：背景、 政策、难点与展望》2024-05-20 《【粤开宏观】超长期特别国债：中国现状、 国际比较与意义》2024-05-19 《【粤开宏观】如何理解 4 月宏观数据的分 化与"预期差"》2024-05-17 《【粤开宏观】城投公司转型的可能方向与 风险—城投转型系列之三》2024-05-14 料工业和部分装备制造业，主要是中上游和重工业。事实上，钢铁、水泥是 产能过剩最为突出的领域，由于历史包袱重、涉及方面多，落后过剩产能处 置缓慢 ...