证券研究报告 | 宏观经济研究*专题报告 2024 年 09 月 05 日 宏观经济研究 增值税与企业所得税改革——财税改革系列研究之二 | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

证券研究报告 | 行业专题报告 2024 年 09 月 04 日 电子 存储爆发，半导体市场 Q2 同比增长 18%，下半年看端侧 AI 新景气周期 股票 股票 投资 EPS （元） PE 代码 名称 评级 2024E 2025E 2024E 2025E 300782.SZ 卓胜微 增持 2.23 2.81 28.58 22.68 301308.SZ 江波龙 增持 2.63 5.04 26.57 13.87 688521.SH 芯原股份 买入 0.04 0.21 678.0 129.14 资料来源：长城证券产业金融研究院 24Q2 全球半导体市场同比+18%，除存储外同比仅+4%，下游需求缓慢复苏。 24Q2 全球半导体市场规模约 1499 亿美元，同比增长 18%，环比增长 6%。若剔除 存储芯片市场，24Q2 全球半导体市场规模约 1088 亿美元，同比增长仅 4%，环比仅 增长 1%，由此可见，下游需求复苏仍疲弱。 需求缓慢复苏，24Q2 晶圆厂稼动率环比小幅+0.6pct 至 83.6%，处历史低位。 半导体下游需求缓慢复苏下，24Q2 全球晶圆厂产能利用率环比小幅提升 0.6pct 至 83.6%， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index within the next six months [15]. Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2024 is under pressure, primarily due to a decline in the price of its main product, valine, and increased costs associated with launching new products. However, the long-term outlook remains positive with anticipated recovery in profitability as new products gain market traction [2][3]. - The company reported a revenue of 1.016 billion yuan in H1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 19.57%, while net profit decreased by 21.72% to 150 million yuan [1][2]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Growth**: The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 1.938 billion yuan in 2023 to 2.662 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 37.3% [1][9]. - **Net Profit**: The forecasted net profit for 2024 is 430 million yuan, a slight decrease of 4.2% compared to 2023 [1][9]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS is expected to be 1.88 yuan in 2024, with projections of 2.81 yuan in 2025 and 3.44 yuan in 2026 [1][9]. - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: The ROE is projected to be 20.3% in 2024, with a recovery to 24.7% in 2025 [1][11]. Product and Market Insights - The company is expanding its product portfolio with new amino acids such as 1,3-propanediol, succinic acid, and tryptophan, which are expected to contribute to revenue growth in the medium to long term [3][8]. - The competitive landscape for valine is intensifying due to increased production capacity in the industry, which has led to lower prices impacting profitability [4][8]. - The global synthetic biology market is projected to grow significantly, providing a favorable environment for the company's future development [8]. Strategic Development - The company is actively pursuing technological advancements in the production of amino acids, particularly through biomanufacturing processes, which are expected to enhance cost efficiency and product quality [8]. - Ongoing projects include the construction of production lines for valine and other amino acids, which are anticipated to boost operational capacity and market presence [8].

证券研究报告 | 行业专题报告 2024 年 09 月 04 日 电子 存储爆发，半导体市场 Q2 同比增长 18%，下半年看端侧 AI 新景气周期 股票 股票 投资 EPS （元） PE 代码 名称 评级 2024E 2025E 2024E 2025E 300782.SZ 卓胜微 增持 2.23 2.81 28.58 22.68 301308.SZ 江波龙 增持 2.63 5.04 26.57 13.87 688521.SH 芯原股份 买入 0.04 0.21 678.0 129.14 资料来源：长城证券产业金融研究院 24Q2 全球半导体市场同比+18%，除存储外同比仅+4%，下游需求缓慢复苏。 24Q2 全球半导体市场规模约 1499 亿美元，同比增长 18%，环比增长 6%。若剔除 存储芯片市场，24Q2 全球半导体市场规模约 1088 亿美元，同比增长仅 4%，环比仅 增长 1%，由此可见，下游需求复苏仍疲弱。 需求缓慢复苏，24Q2 晶圆厂稼动率环比小幅+0.6pct 至 83.6%，处历史低位。 半导体下游需求缓慢复苏下，24Q2 全球晶圆厂产能利用率环比小幅提升 0.6pct 至 83.6%， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index within the next six months [13]. Core Views - The company has shown significant profit growth in the first half of 2024, with a year-on-year increase in revenue of 10.96% and a net profit increase of 26.17% [1][2]. - The growth in performance is attributed to favorable demand in the polyester filament industry, rising product prices, and the continuous release of production capacity [2][6]. - The company is a leading player in the domestic polyester filament market, with a production capacity of 7.4 million tons and a market share exceeding 12% [2][6]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2024, the company reported revenue of 31.272 billion yuan and a net profit of 605 million yuan, with a net profit margin of 1.93%, an increase of 0.23 percentage points year-on-year [1][2]. - The average selling prices of key products such as POY, FDY, and DTY increased by 1.99%, 3.01%, and 4.80% respectively, contributing to the overall revenue growth [6]. - The company’s operating cash flow was negative at -660 million yuan, a decline of 202.89% year-on-year, primarily due to reduced sales efficiency and increased inventory [2][6]. Industry Context - The domestic polyester industry is mature and stable, with significant growth potential driven by the increasing demand for differentiated and functional polyester fibers [2][6]. - The company is expanding its upstream PTA production capacity, which is expected to reach 10 million tons by the end of 2025, enhancing its supply chain stability and cost control [6][7]. - The report anticipates continued revenue growth for the company, projecting revenues of 67.119 billion yuan, 72.637 billion yuan, and 76.706 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [7].

证券研究报告 | 公司动态点评 2024 年 09 月 03 日 新乳业（002946.SZ） 低温品类稳健增长，盈利提升持续兑现 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------|--------|--------|--------|--------|--------|-----------------------------------------|----------| | | | | | | | | | | 财务指标 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | 买入（维持评级） | | | 营业收入（百万元） | 10,006 | 10,987 | 11,887 | 12,966 | 14,201 | 股票信息 | | | 增长率 yoy （ % ） | 11.6 | 9.8 | 8.2 | 9.1 | 9.5 | | | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 361 | 431 | 555 | 679 | 815 | 行业 | ...

证券研究报告| 公司动态点评 2024 年 09 月 03 日 桐昆股份（601233.SH） 1H24 业绩大幅改善，看好长丝盈利逐步改善 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------|--------|--------|--------|--------|---------| | | | | | | | | 财务指标 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业收入（百万元） | 61,993 | 82,640 | 93,084 | 99,232 | 107,114 | | 增长率 yoy （ % ） | 4.8 | 33.3 | 12.6 | 6.6 | 7.9 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 125 | 797 | 2,469 | 3,875 | 4,709 | | 增长率 yoy （ % ） | -98.3 | 539.1 | 209.7 | 57.0 | 21.5 | | ROE （ % ） | 0.4 | 2.3 | 6.6 | 9.4 | 10.4 | | EPS 最 ...

证券研究报告 | 公司动态点评 2024 年 09 月 04 日 伊利股份（600887.SH） 终端表现优于报表，下半年轻装上阵、改善可期 买入（维持评级） 股票信息 行业 食品饮料 2024 年 9 月 3 日收盘价（元） 22.21 总市值（百万元） 141,388.02 流通市值（百万元） 140,036.14 总股本（百万股） 6,365.96 流通股本（百万股） 6,305.09 近 3 月日均成交额（百万元） 1,062.33 股价走势 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------| | | | | | | | | 财务指标 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业收入（百万元） | 122,698 | 125,758 | 126,846 | 132,649 | 137,909 | | 增长率 yoy （ % ） | 11.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 4.6 | 4 ...

证券研究报告 | 公司动态点评 2024 年 09 月 04 日 涪陵榨菜（002507.SZ） H1 榨菜稳健&渠道调整，H2 成本红利可期 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-----------------------------------------|-----------| | 财务指标 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | 增持（维持评级） | | | 营业收入（百万元） | 2,548 | 2,450 | 2,593 | 2,783 | 2,972 | 股票信息 | | | 增长率 yoy （ % ） | 1.2 | -3.9 | 5.9 | 7.3 | 6.8 | | | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 899 | 827 | 888 | 956 | 1,026 | 行业 | 食品饮料 | | 增长率 yoy （ % ） | 21.1 | -8.0 | 7. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [1][2] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 41.04 billion RMB for H1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.55 billion RMB, a decrease of 9.3% [1][2] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.40 RMB per share, totaling 650 million RMB, which accounts for 25.51% of the net profit for H1 2024 [2] - The company is focusing on a major brand strategy, with four business segments forming a complete industrial chain, enhancing brand value from pharmaceuticals to health products [2] Financial Summary - Revenue (in million RMB): - 2022A: 70,788 - 2023A: 75,515 - 2024E: 79,410 - 2025E: 83,117 - 2026E: 86,410 [1][5] - Net Profit (in million RMB): - 2022A: 3,967 - 2023A: 4,056 - 2024E: 4,245 - 2025E: 4,499 - 2026E: 4,739 [1][5] - EPS (in RMB): - 2022A: 2.44 - 2023A: 2.49 - 2024E: 2.61 - 2025E: 2.77 - 2026E: 2.92 [1][5] Business Segment Performance - Revenue by segment for H1 2024: - Traditional Chinese Medicine: 4.06 billion RMB, +8.2% YoY - Chemical Medicine: 2.12 billion RMB, -17.1% YoY - Health Products: 6.54 billion RMB, -7.2% YoY - Commercial Business: 27.82 billion RMB, +6.1% YoY [2] Profitability Metrics - Gross Margin for H1 2024: 19%, down 1.8 percentage points YoY [2] - Net Margin for H1 2024: 6.5%, down 0.8 percentage points YoY [2] - ROE (Return on Equity) projections: - 2024E: 11.3% - 2025E: 11.0% - 2026E: 10.6% [1][6]