Group 1: Report Information - Report type: Iron Ore Daily Review [1] - Date: March 13, 2026 [2] - Research team: Black Metal Research Team [3] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [3] Group 2: Market Quotes 3月12日钢材、铁矿期货主力合约价格、成交及持仓情况 | Contract Code | Previous Closing Price | Opening Price | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Closing Price | Change Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | Capital Inflow/Outflow | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | RB2605 | 3115 | 3115 | 3136 | 3112 | 3120 | 0.42% | 765,830 | 1,676,246 | -46,176 | -0.95 | | HC2605 | 3269 | 3275 | 3289 | 3270 | 3275 | 0.37% | 320,782 | 1,243,723 | -21,377 | -0.44 | | SS2605 | 14215 | 14215 | 14390 | 14125 | 14285 | 0.88% | 193,031 | 109,003 | 4,075 | 0.46 | | I2605 | 787.5 | 789.5 | 799 | 787 | 795.5 | 1.34% | 239,231 | 480,735 | 5,766 | 0.92 | [5] 3月12日黑色系期货持仓情况 | Contract | Top 20 Long Positions | Top 20 Short Positions | Top 20 Long Position Change | Top 20 Short Position Change | Long-Short Comparison | Deviation Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | RB2605 | 1,049,717 | 1,052,852 | -21,151 | -26,979 | 5,828 | 0.55% | | HC2605 | 881,021 | 873,988 | -19,951 | -12,246 | -7,705 | -0.88% | | SS2605 | 82,290 | 84,597 | 2,924 | 3,847 | -923 | -1.11% | | J2605 | 23,419 | 26,892 | 209 | 388 | -179 | -0.71% | | JM2605 | 203,187 | 254,489 | -11,132 | -14,604 | 3,472 | 1.52% | | I2605 | 310,142 | 328,446 | 8,759 | 3,604 | 5,155 | 1.61% | [8] Group 3: Market Analysis Spot Market and Technical Analysis - On March 12, the main quotes of major iron ore outer disks increased by $2.6 - $2.8 per ton compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of major iron ore grades at Qingdao Port rose by 4 - 11 yuan per ton compared with the previous trading day [8]. - The daily KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2605 contract continued to rise; the red bar of the daily MACD indicator of the iron ore 2605 contract has been expanding for 5 consecutive trading days [9]. Future Outlook - In terms of fundamentals, the shipments from Australia and Brazil declined last week. Affected by weather conditions in the first quarter, the overall shipment volume remained at a relatively low level. The arrival volume rebounded last week and is expected to fluctuate at a moderately low level in the future [10]. - On the demand side, the daily average pig iron output slightly recovered to over 2.3 million tons before the Spring Festival, maintaining good demand resilience. It continued to rise in the first week after the festival and then declined, mainly due to production restrictions of some steel enterprises during the Two Sessions [10]. - Overall, although it is still the off - season for demand, the profit performance is not bad. The profit per ton of blast furnace steel for rebar and hot - rolled coils is in the positive range. Driven by profits, the resumption of production may accelerate after the Two Sessions [11]. - In terms of inventory, steel mills replenished their stocks sufficiently before the festival, and the inventory decreased significantly after the holiday consumption. It is expected that the available inventory days will continue to decline to around 20 days. The port inventory increased slightly, mainly affected by the decline in arrival volume and low downstream production during the holiday. Considering that the arrival volume in March will still fluctuate at a moderately low level, while the production rhythm of downstream steel enterprises will gradually resume, it is expected that the port inventory will remain at around 170 million tons, still at a historical high [11]. - In general, the supply is relatively tight in the first quarter, while the demand side still faces certain policy pressure during the Two Sessions. However, the overall resumption of production is expected to accelerate. Affected by geopolitical disturbances, the iron ore price has started to rebound. After the geopolitical disturbances gradually subside, the fundamentals may push the iron ore price to continue to strengthen in stages. However, the high port inventory and the expected increase in annual supply will continue to suppress the upside space of the iron ore price [11]. Group 4: Industry News - Wang Lanyu, the general manager of HBIS Group Co., Ltd. and a deputy to the National People's Congress, stated that the intelligent transformation of the Chinese steel industry has achieved remarkable results, and new intelligent and digital technologies are widely used. Currently, the "AI + Steel" industry is booming, and more than 95% of steel enterprises have incorporated the digital transformation strategy into their overall development process. In the future, applying more artificial intelligence in the intelligent steel - making process, high - end new product R & D, and pollution reduction and carbon reduction will effectively enhance the international competitiveness of Chinese steel products [12] Group 5: Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices of major iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the price differences between high - grade ore, low - grade ore and PB powder at Qingdao Port, the basis between iron ore spot and the May contract at Qingdao Port, the shipping volume of iron ore from Brazil and Australia, the arrival volume of iron ore at 45 ports, the capacity utilization rate of domestic mines, the trading volume of iron ore at major ports, the inventory available days of steel mills' iron ore, the inventory of imported sintered powder ore, the port iron ore inventory and the port clearance volume, the tax - free pig iron cost of sample steel mills, the blast furnace operation rate and the iron - making capacity utilization rate, the electric furnace operation rate and the capacity utilization rate, the national daily average pig iron output, the apparent consumption of five major steel products, the weekly output of five major steel products, and the steel mill inventory of five major steel products [14][20][22][23][28][29][35][37][43]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On March 11, the iron ore futures main contract 2605 showed a volatile and upward - trending pattern, closing at 787.5 yuan/ton with a 0.90% increase. Currently, in the first quarter, supply is relatively tight, and the demand side still faces certain policy pressure during the Two Sessions, but the overall resumption of production is expected to accelerate. After the geopolitical disturbances gradually subside, the fundamentals may boost the iron ore price to continue strengthening in stages, but the high port inventory and the expected increase in annual supply will continue to suppress the upside space of the iron ore price [7][11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Future Outlook 3.1.1 Spot Market Dynamics and Technical Analysis - On March 11, the main iron ore outer - market quotes were raised by 0.5 - 1.1 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of main - grade iron ore at Qingdao Port remained the same as the previous trading day. Technically, the daily KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2605 contract is rising, the J - value has turned up, and the K - value and D - value continue to rise; the red column of the daily MACD indicator of the iron ore 2605 has been increasing for 4 consecutive trading days [9] 3.1.2 Future Outlook - In terms of supply, the shipments from Australia and Brazil turned down last week. Affected by weather factors in the first quarter, the overall shipment volume is at a relatively low level. The arrival volume rebounded last week and may fluctuate at a moderately low level in the future. In terms of demand, the daily average pig iron output before the Spring Festival slightly recovered to over 2.3 million tons, showing good demand resilience. It continued to rise in the first week after the festival and then declined, mainly affected by the production restrictions of some steel enterprises during the Two Sessions. Currently, although it is still in the off - season of demand, the profit performance is not bad. The profits per ton of blast - furnace steel for rebar and hot - rolled coils are in the positive range. Driven by profits, the resumption of production rhythm may accelerate after the Two Sessions. In terms of inventory, steel mills replenished their stocks sufficiently before the festival, and the inventory decreased significantly after the holiday consumption. It is expected that the available days of inventory will continue to decline to about 20 days. The port inventory has slightly increased, mainly affected by the decline in arrival volume and the low downstream production during the holiday. Considering that the arrival volume in March will still fluctuate at a moderately low level, while the production rhythm of downstream steel enterprises will gradually resume, it is expected that the port inventory will remain at about 170 million tons, still at a historical high [10][11] 3.2 Industry News - Wang Lanyu, the general manager of HBIS Group Co., Ltd. and a deputy to the National People's Congress, said that the intelligent transformation of the Chinese steel industry has achieved remarkable results, and new intelligent and digital technologies are widely used. Currently, the "AI + steel" is booming, and more than 95% of steel enterprises have incorporated the digital transformation strategy into their overall development process. In the future, applying more artificial intelligence to the intelligent steel - making process, high - end new product R & D, and pollution reduction and carbon reduction will effectively improve the international competitiveness of Chinese steel products [12] 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including the prices of main iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the price differences between high - grade ore, low - grade ore and PB powder at Qingdao Port, the basis between iron ore spot and the May contract at Qingdao Port, the shipment volumes of iron ore from Brazil and Australia, the arrival volumes of iron ore at 45 ports, domestic mine capacity utilization rate, the trading volumes of iron ore at main ports, the available days of steel mill iron ore inventory, the inventory of imported sintered powder ore, port iron ore inventory and dispatch volume, the tax - free pig iron cost of sample steel mills, blast - furnace operating rate and iron - making capacity utilization rate, electric - furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate, the national daily average pig iron output, the apparent consumption volume of five major steel products, the weekly output of five major steel products, and the steel mill inventory of five major steel products. All data sources are from Mysteel and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [14][20][22]

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, despite a continuous decline in demand for the fifth consecutive year, the overall profit of China's steel industry experienced a significant rebound, with profits reaching 109.83 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 299.2% [1] Group 1: Industry Performance - The steel industry is witnessing a divergence in performance among A-share listed companies, with some like Shougang and Shandong Steel turning losses into profits due to product optimization and cost reduction, while others like Ansteel and Chongqing Steel continue to face losses [1][3] - The significant drop in raw material costs, including a decrease of 8% for imported iron ore and 27% for coking coal, has aided many companies in reducing losses [2] - The shift from construction steel to manufacturing steel marks a historic transition in the industry, driven by the retreat of real estate profits and the necessity for high-end transformation [1][5] Group 2: Company-Specific Insights - Shandong Steel is projected to achieve a net profit of approximately 100 million yuan in 2025, recovering from a loss of 2.891 billion yuan the previous year, aided by deep collaboration with China Baowu and a focus on exports [2] - Shougang is expected to report a net profit between 920 million and 1.06 billion yuan, reflecting a significant growth of 95.29% to 125.01% year-on-year, driven by a high-end and differentiated product strategy [3] - Ansteel anticipates a loss of around 4.077 billion yuan, a reduction of 42.75% from the previous year's loss, while Chongqing Steel expects a loss between 2.5 billion and 2.8 billion yuan, indicating ongoing challenges despite some improvements [4] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The demand structure in the steel industry has fundamentally reversed, with the proportion of steel used in construction dropping from 53% in 2020 to 36% in 2025, while manufacturing steel usage rose from 42% to 53% [6] - The export of steel reached 119 million tons in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.5%, although the average export price fell by 8.1% to 694 USD per ton, indicating a competitive environment focused on volume over price [7] - The industry faces a challenging market environment, with domestic steel demand declining for five consecutive years and a strong supply-demand imbalance [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - Hebei Iron and Steel Group has launched the "Weisibo 2.0" model, marking a significant step in the "AI + Steel" sector, aimed at enhancing intelligent system applications across the steel industry [1] Group 1 - The model aims to accelerate the implementation of intelligent systems within the steel sector [1] - It is expected to further boost productivity and promote the transformation of research and development achievements into tangible benefits [1]

Industry News - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment, along with multiple departments, has issued a document to establish a performance grading system (A, B, C, D) for key enterprises, aiming to encourage companies to enhance their environmental protection levels and achieve air quality improvement alongside high-quality industry development [4][10] - In December 2025, China's crude steel production was 68.18 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 10.3%. For the entire year of 2025, crude steel production totaled 960.81 million tons, down 4.4% year-on-year [4][10] Company News - On January 15, Baosteel's cold-rolled plant C308 successfully produced its first roll of high-aluminum zinc-aluminum magnesium steel, completing the three-electricity transformation five days ahead of schedule and achieving full-stack control system localization. This marks a key breakthrough in Baosteel's implementation of the "AI + Steel" new model [3][9] - On January 17, a significant milestone in the global steel industry was reached with the arrival of the first shipment of nearly 200,000 tons of Simandou iron ore at China Baowu's Majishan Port. The subsequent transport will be carried out by Baowu Resources' own vessels to Baosteel's Baoshan base [3][9] Key Data - As of January 16, 2026, the US Dollar Index was at 99.37, with a week-on-week increase of 0.23% and a year-on-year decrease of 8.79% [6][11] - The iron ore price index was recorded at $109.05, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 2.11% but a year-on-year increase of 5.82% [6][11] - Domestic port iron ore inventory reached 17.289 million tons, showing an increase of 18.82% week-on-week and 10.01% year-on-year [6][11]

Core Insights - The steel industry is undergoing a deep adjustment period driven by policies, capital, and market factors, presenting new opportunities and requirements for listed companies like Shandong Steel [1] - Shandong Steel achieved a total profit of 632 million yuan and a net profit of approximately 140 million yuan in the first three quarters of this year, with the third quarter marking the highest quarterly profit in nearly 11 quarters, fulfilling its goal of turning losses into profits [1][2] Group 1: Cost Control and Operational Strategy - Shandong Steel has implemented a three-tier cost control system, achieving a reduction of over 60 yuan per ton of steel, establishing a solid cost "moat" for the company [2] - The company employs a "grasp both ends and control the middle" operational strategy, enhancing collaboration in procurement and sales, resulting in an increase of 288 yuan/ton at the Jinan Steel City base and 225 yuan/ton at the Rizhao base compared to last year [2] Group 2: Product Development and Market Expansion - The steel industry is trending towards high-end, green, and digital development, with Shandong Steel focusing on high-end products such as bearing steel, pipeline steel, automotive sheets, low-temperature resistant steel, and high-strength wear-resistant steel, increasing the proportion of high-end products by 5.4 percentage points compared to 2024 [2][3] Group 3: Technological Innovation and Digitalization - Shandong Steel has established an AI Intelligence Department to advance its "AI + Steel" strategy, aiming to optimize production processes and improve management efficiency through the application of AI technology [3] - The shift towards smart manufacturing is reshaping the value metrics of the steel industry, with increasing quality demands from downstream industries driving steel companies to enhance technological innovation and supply chain collaboration [3] Group 4: Capital Operations and Policy Environment - Shandong Steel plans to acquire 100% of Laiwu Steel Group Yingshan Type Steel Co., Ltd. for 714 million yuan, which will address competition issues and further enhance the company's performance and product structure [4] - The steel industry is currently experiencing a significant policy opportunity period, with various supportive policies being introduced to promote quality upgrades in the steel industry [4]

Core Insights - The steel industry is undergoing significant transformation driven by AI and data technologies, marking a pivotal moment in its modernization efforts [3][10] - The integration of AI into steel production processes is essential for overcoming existing development bottlenecks and achieving high-quality growth [3][10] AI+Steel Technology System Development - The "AI+Steel" initiative has seen substantial progress in China, with collaborative efforts between academia and industry leading to successful applications of AI in steel production [4][6] - Notable advancements include the development of predictive models for hot-rolled steel using Bayesian neural networks and the establishment of a smart blast furnace system that combines big data and AI [6][10] Standardized Technology Framework - A standardized technology framework for "AI+Steel" has been established, comprising six key technical components, including data collection, model system construction, and algorithm selection [7][9] - The framework emphasizes the importance of data governance and the development of edge computing solutions tailored to the steel industry [9][10] Implementation Strategy - The implementation of the "AI+Steel" strategy is proposed in three phases: demonstration and standardization (2025-2026), scale promotion (2027-2030), and full industry adoption (2031-2035) [11] - The focus will be on building integrated production lines that cover the entire steel production process, enhancing product quality, and fostering innovation [11] Future Directions - The industry is encouraged to leverage advanced computing systems and information technologies to create a low-cost, efficient, and easily replicable model for modernization [10] - Key areas for technological development include the integration of big data with machine learning, the advancement of human-AI collaborative systems, and the exploration of multi-agent optimization techniques [10][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the steel industry [1]. Core Insights - The "Steel Industry Stable Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" has been released, aiming for an average annual growth of around 4% in the industry's added value over the next two years. This plan emphasizes "stabilizing growth and preventing internal competition," guiding structural adjustments and high-quality development in the steel sector [12][14]. - The report highlights the acceleration of digital transformation in the steel industry, with significant investments in AI and digital technologies by leading companies, indicating a shift towards data-driven operations [27][28]. Summary by Sections 1. Review of 2021 Steel Supply-Side Capacity Regulation - In 2021, China's crude steel production fell to 1.035 billion tons, a year-on-year decrease of approximately 2.8%, due to stringent capacity control measures aimed at achieving carbon neutrality goals [4][8]. - The profitability of the steel industry improved significantly, with total profits in the black metal smelting and rolling processing industry reaching 424.09 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 72.1% [9][10]. 2. Stable Growth Work Plan Released, Leaders Benefit from Production Regulation - The "Stable Growth Work Plan" sets a target for the steel industry's added value to grow by about 4% annually from 2025 to 2026, focusing on economic stability and balanced market supply and demand [12][14]. - The plan emphasizes precise control of capacity and production, promoting industry transformation and upgrading, which will benefit leading steel companies [15][16]. 3. Accelerated Digital Transformation, AI + Steel Gaining Momentum - The digital transformation in the steel industry is expected to significantly enhance overall digital levels by 2026, with a focus on integrating new information technologies [19][20]. - Leading companies like Baosteel and Shougang are actively pushing forward their AI and digital transformation initiatives, with Baosteel planning to implement over 300 AI application scenarios by 2025 [27][28]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies such as Shougang, Hebei Steel, and CITIC Special Steel, as they are expected to benefit from the ongoing capacity regulation and industry transformation [31].

Core Viewpoint - The recent report from China Galaxy highlights the "precise control of capacity and output" and "industry transformation and upgrading" as key development directions for the steel industry in the context of ongoing supply-side reforms [1][3]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - In 2021, China's steel production faced significant supply-side capacity control measures, leading to a historic year-on-year decline in crude steel output by approximately 2.8%, reaching 1.035 billion tons [2]. - The combination of strong demand and strict production controls resulted in domestic steel prices rising sharply, maintaining historical highs, and the total profit for the black metal smelting and rolling industry reached 424.09 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 72.1% [2]. Policy Developments - The "Steel Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" was jointly issued by multiple government departments, setting an average annual growth target of around 4% for the steel industry's added value over the next two years [3]. - The plan emphasizes "steady growth and prevention of internal competition," providing a clear path for structural adjustment and high-quality development in the steel sector [3]. Digital Transformation - The work plan focuses on industry upgrades, advocating for increased effective investment, modernization of processes and equipment, and accelerated digital transformation [4]. - By 2026, the steel industry aims to significantly enhance its digitalization level, integrating new information technologies deeply into the steel industry, transitioning from isolated applications to a comprehensive digital development approach [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that in the context of ongoing supply-side reforms, the steel industry's capacity will continue to concentrate on high-quality leading companies, with a focus on industry leaders and performance improvements [5]. - Recommended companies for investment include Shougang Group, Hebei Iron and Steel Group, and CITIC Special Steel [5].

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry in China is undergoing a significant digital transformation driven by artificial intelligence, which is essential for high-quality development and efficiency improvements [1][4][6]. Digital Transformation Initiatives - The China Iron and Steel Association has prioritized digital transformation as one of the three major projects for the industry, launching a three-year action plan [1]. - 95.1% of steel companies have integrated digital transformation strategies into their overall development plans, with significant investments in smart upgrades [2][6]. Technological Advancements - Shougang's cold-rolled company has been recognized as a "lighthouse factory" due to its implementation of advanced technologies such as 5G, AI, and big data, resulting in a 21.2% increase in production efficiency and a 35% reduction in product defect rates [2]. - Baowu Steel has initiated a new digital transformation strategy marked by "AI+", aiming to create over 1,000 AI-enabled application scenarios within three years [3]. Industry Challenges and Solutions - The steel industry faces challenges related to the "black box" nature of production processes, which can hinder efficiency and quality [4][5]. - The introduction of "human-machine hybrid intelligence" models aims to address these challenges by enabling high-fidelity predictions and optimizing production processes [5]. Future Prospects - The application of AI in the steel industry is expected to expand, enhancing production efficiency, quality control, and supply chain management [6]. - The development of an AI ecosystem that promotes collaboration among steel companies, research institutions, and technology service providers is anticipated to drive the industry's transition towards high-end, intelligent, and green development [6][7]. Policy and Strategic Focus - The China Iron and Steel Association will continue to focus on AI and intelligent technology applications to reshape productivity, emphasizing low-carbon integration and cost-effective technology promotion [7]. - The core value of AI in the steel industry is to create a new paradigm of "human-machine collaboration," enhancing operational stability and continuous system optimization [7].