分析师：何佳烨 执业证书编号：S0740523060002 Email：hejy01@zts.com.cn 2024 年 9 月 24 日国新办举行新闻发布会，人民银行、金融监管总局、证监会负责人 介绍金融支持经济高质量发展有关情况，并宣布出台一系列政策。在房地产市场领域， 924 新闻发布会进一步提出了一系列支持房地产市场的政策，包括降低现有房贷的利 率、统一最低首付比例、以及优化保障性住房再贷款政策等。926 政治局会议未再强 调"房住不炒"的原则，而是首次提出了"促进房地产市场止跌回稳"的目标，这标 志着房地产政策的一次重大转变。在支持权益市场方面，924 新闻发布会也宣布了一 系列旨在支持股票市场稳定发展的政策。央行行长宣布将推出证券、基金、保险公司 互换便利和股票回购增持专项再贷款两项新的货币政策工具，926 中央金融办和证监 会联合发布了《关于推动中长期资金入市的指导意见》，旨在提升对中长期资金权益 投资的监管包容度，并推动各类中长期资金进入市场。会后，万得全 A 指数 5 个交易 日上涨 26%。与此同时，A 股成交额不断放大，10 月 8 日高达 34,835.43 亿元，创下 近年来新高。 ...

美联储面对平衡双重使命的挑战 ——海外经济与政策周报 证券研究报告/宏观定期报告 2024 年 10 月 13 日 分析师：夏知非 执业证书编号：S0740523110007 Email：xiazf01@zts.com.cn 相关报告 报告摘要 一周海外重要事件汇总： 中东：黎以冲突持续，以方拟报复伊朗； 美国：美联储面对平衡双重使命的挑战，内部分歧加剧；飓风期间美国就业数据存在 低于预期的可能；美国 9 月 PPI 增速回落、10 月密歇根消费者信心指数初值回落； 欧洲：下周欧央行料将降息 25 基点；德国政府下调经济预测； 日本：通胀压制实际收入与消费信心，日央行仍有加息空间。 美国高频指标跟踪：周度经济现状边际转弱，周度就业降温，生产分化，零售增速平 稳，房地产购买需求上升，金融市场流动性风险较小。特朗普支持率回升，分裂政府 概率仍大。 全球资产表现：本周 A 股、港股在市场对中国政策激烈博弈下回调，美股、日股小幅 上涨；除中国外主要国家 10 年国债收益率普升；离岸人民币升值，美元指数上升， 其余货币普遍贬值；商品价格变化存在分化，有色金属回落，油价、金价上涨。向前 看，在短期（至 11 月上旬美股大 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the transportation sector [1]. Core Insights - The transportation sector has experienced a decline of 6.4% this week, underperforming the broader market, with no sub-sectors showing gains. The top three declines were in the airline index (-10.0%), airport index (-8.5%), and logistics composite index (-6.9%) [1]. - The average daily flight operations and aircraft utilization rates varied week-on-week, with most airlines reporting a decrease in flight numbers and utilization [1][2]. - The price of aviation fuel has decreased, potentially alleviating cost pressures during the traditional off-peak season for airlines [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Airline Data - From October 7 to October 11, the average daily flights for major airlines showed a decline: Southern Airlines (2385.80 flights, -4.33%), Eastern Airlines (2287.80 flights, -6.43%), Air China (1645.00 flights, -2.61%), Spring Airlines (487.60 flights, -8.10%), and others [1]. - Average aircraft utilization rates also decreased during the same period, with Southern Airlines at 8.30 hours/day (-4.60%), Eastern Airlines at 7.70 hours/day (-7.23%), and others showing similar trends [1]. 2. Airport Data - The average daily flight operations for domestic routes from October 7 to October 11 showed declines across major airports: Shenzhen Bao'an (1016.20 flights, -1.72%), Beijing Capital (910.60 flights, -2.12%), Guangzhou Baiyun (1163.60 flights, -1.99%), and others [2]. - International route operations also saw a decrease, with Shenzhen Bao'an (91.60 flights, -1.20%), Beijing Capital (192.60 flights, -0.13%), and others reporting similar reductions [2]. 3. Market Performance - The report highlights that the aviation sector is expected to benefit from the recovery of international routes and improved operational efficiency, leading to better performance for airlines and airports [3]. - Key recommendations include focusing on companies like Huaxia Airlines, Spring Airlines, and Jixiang Airlines, as well as monitoring Shanghai Airport and Baiyun Airport for potential investment opportunities [3][11].

Group 1: Fiscal Policy Insights - The Ministry of Finance is expected to announce the scale of incremental fiscal tools at the upcoming National People's Congress Standing Committee meeting in late October or early November[1] - The actual public finance revenue for 2024 may fall short of the budget by 1.5 trillion yuan, necessitating adjustments to the budget and potential issuance of additional government bonds[1] - The leadership indicated that the deficit rate may exceed 3% in the future, suggesting a more flexible fiscal policy approach[1] Group 2: Economic Recovery Strategies - The focus is on addressing insufficient demand through a combination of short-term and long-term fiscal measures, with an emphasis on repairing the balance sheets of local governments, enterprises, and households[1] - Four policies currently in decision-making processes aim to enhance local government financial capacity and support state-owned banks' capital, thereby boosting credit availability[1] - Allowing special bonds for land acquisition and supporting the cash flow of real estate companies is expected to stabilize housing prices and improve household balance sheets[1] Group 3: Market Implications - The combination of deficit financing, special bonds, and long-term bonds is seen as a more sustainable approach to enhancing market risk appetite compared to one-off large-scale stimulus measures[1] - Future observations will focus on the outcomes of the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference and the actual effects of the fiscal policies on the economy and expectations[1] - The report highlights potential risks from domestic and international policy changes and geopolitical conflicts that could impact the effectiveness of these fiscal measures[1]

Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the effectiveness of the "stabilizing growth" policies introduced by the government, particularly in response to economic pressures and the need for structural improvements in the economy [2][3] - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) outlined five key areas of focus for policy implementation: enhancing macro policies, expanding domestic demand, increasing support for enterprises, stabilizing the real estate market, and boosting the capital market [2][3] Summary by Sections Macroeconomic Policy - The report highlights a shift towards optimizing and implementing existing macroeconomic policies rather than introducing large-scale new policies, focusing on enhancing the effectiveness of growth policies [2][3] - Emphasis is placed on coordinating fiscal, monetary, investment, and consumption policies to maximize their combined effects [2][3] Fiscal Policy - The NDRC indicated a focus on utilizing existing fiscal policies effectively, with an emphasis on accelerating the issuance and use of local government special bonds [2][3] - There is a potential for early issuance of special government bonds for next year, indicating proactive fiscal management [2][3] Domestic Demand and Consumption - Policies aimed at boosting consumption are prioritized, particularly for low-income groups and specific sectors such as elderly care and childcare services [2][3] - The report suggests that consumption promotion should be closely linked to improving living standards and increasing income for middle and low-income groups [2][3] Investment Focus - The report identifies key investment areas, including infrastructure and agricultural modernization, with a focus on effective investment to generate tangible results [2][3] - Central government funding is directed towards significant construction projects and new initiatives [2][3] Real Estate and Capital Market - The report discusses measures to stabilize the real estate market, including optimizing existing housing supply and supporting reasonable financing for real estate companies [2][3] - Policies to invigorate the capital market are also highlighted, with a focus on attracting long-term funds and supporting mergers and acquisitions [2][3]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive investment outlook for the humanoid robot sector, highlighting potential growth opportunities driven by advancements in technology and production capabilities [3]. Core Insights - The humanoid robot industry is experiencing significant developments, with multiple companies releasing new products and enhancing their operational capabilities. Notably, Tesla plans to deploy over a thousand humanoid robots in its factories by 2025, while Figure AI has successfully integrated its robots into BMW's manufacturing environment [3][5]. - The market dynamics are heavily influenced by Tesla's production timelines and the progress of other key players like Figure AI and Yushu. The industry is transitioning from initial development to broader deployment, with technological advancements being a critical factor [3][21]. - A review of the mid-year financial reports indicates that 14 companies, including Suzhou Axis and Shuanglin, have shown strong revenue growth and profitability, with valuations below the median [3]. Industry Dynamics and Perspectives - Tesla's Optimus robot has shown significant improvements in capabilities, including enhanced dexterity and operational efficiency, with plans for mass production in the near future [5][6]. - Figure AI's robots, supported by OpenAI, have demonstrated advanced language processing and task execution abilities, positioning them as leaders in the market [7]. - Yushu's G1 robot showcases superior motion performance and cost advantages, reflecting the competitive edge of domestic manufacturers [8]. - Zhi Yuan has introduced a roadmap for embodied intelligence in humanoid robots, outlining a clear evolution from basic automation to advanced cognitive capabilities [9][15]. Stock Performance Review - The humanoid robot sector has seen fluctuating stock performance, primarily driven by Tesla's production updates and the emergence of competitive technologies. The report notes a significant rebound in stock prices following positive news from Tesla regarding its production schedule [21][28]. - The average stock price increase for 31 major humanoid robot companies was 52% from early February to late March, outperforming the broader market [24]. - Recent months have shown a mixed performance, with some companies like Shuanglin and Beite Technology experiencing notable gains, while others faced declines due to market corrections [30][31].

"降息交易"告一段落——9 月美国通胀数据点评 证券研究报告/固定收益点评 2024 年 10 月 10 日 | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | [Table_Title] 分析师：肖雨 [Table_Industry] | 投资要点 | | 执业证书编号： S074 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, considering its first-mover advantage in the autonomous driving chip market and its strong ecosystem [2] Core Views - The company is positioned as a Tier 2 chip supplier, providing automotive-grade SoCs and intelligent automotive solutions based on SoCs [2] - The company has two automotive-grade SoC series: Huashan and Wudang, with the flagship A1000 series SoC shipping over 152,000 units by the end of 2023 [2] - The company's revenue growth is rapid, but profitability is under short-term pressure due to high R&D and sales channel investments [2] - The autonomous driving SoC market is expanding rapidly, with increasing adoption rates and value [2] - The company has a strong competitive advantage in technology, ecosystem, and customer expansion [2] Company Overview - The company is a Tier 2 chip supplier, providing automotive-grade SoCs and intelligent automotive solutions [9] - It has two main SoC series: Huashan (high-performance) and Wudang (cross-domain), with the A1000 series being the flagship product [10] - The company's revenue grew from CNY 61 million in 2021 to CNY 312 million in 2023, with a CAGR of 126.2% [18] - The company's gross margin slowed due to SoC wafer costs and pricing strategies, but cost control improved significantly [18] - The company has a strong R&D team with over 15 years of experience, and it has established R&D and sales centers in multiple locations [18] Industry Analysis - The automotive "intelligence" wave is accelerating, with NOA (Navigate on Autopilot) functions entering the mass production phase [22] - The global ADAS market is expected to grow from USD 50.3 billion in 2023 to USD 121.5 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 13.35% [22] - In China, the ADAS market is expected to grow from CNY 191.877 billion in 2024 to CNY 466.227 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 15.95% [22] - The trend of industry chain collaboration is becoming more cost-effective, and cooperative R&D is expected to become mainstream [23] - Overseas manufacturers lead the automotive SoC market, but domestic chip manufacturers are catching up rapidly [34] Competitive Advantages - The company has a continuous product roadmap, with high-performance SoC A2000 expected to enter mass production in 2026 and cross-domain SoC C1200 in 2025 [41] - The company has self-developed core IPs, giving it control over its technology and reducing dependency on external suppliers [42] - The company has a complete SoC design capability and a large portfolio of intellectual property rights [42] - The company's ecosystem includes the Shanhai development toolchain and the Hanhai-ADSP middleware, which enhance flexibility and scalability for customers [45] - The company's customer base has grown steadily, with 85 customers by the end of 2023, including major automotive OEMs and Tier 1 suppliers [46] Financial Projections - The company's revenue is expected to grow from CNY 569 million in 2024 to CNY 1.824 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 78% [52] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 46% in 2024 to 55% in 2026, driven by the increasing contribution of high-margin products [52] - The company's net loss is expected to narrow from CNY -1.457 billion in 2024 to CNY -238 million in 2026, as the company scales and improves cost efficiency [54]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase of over 15% compared to the benchmark index within the next 6 to 12 months [4]. Core Views - The company is projected to achieve revenue between 5.836 billion to 6.358 billion yuan for Q1-Q3 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 48.02% to 61.26%. The expected net profit attributable to the parent company is between 1.408 billion to 1.586 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 56.16% to 75.90% [1][2]. - The company continues to enhance its product performance and R&D progress, maintaining a competitive edge in the high-end processor market. The demand for servers is increasing due to accelerated digital transformation [1][3]. - The report highlights the company's strong market position in the AI CPU and GPU sectors, benefiting from national policy support and the growing demand for technological advantages [1][3]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the upcoming years are as follows: - 2023: 6,012 million yuan - 2024E: 8,605 million yuan (43% growth) - 2025E: 11,873 million yuan (38% growth) - 2026E: 15,793 million yuan (33% growth) [1][3]. - Net profit forecasts are: - 2023: 1,263 million yuan - 2024E: 1,712 million yuan (35% growth) - 2025E: 2,364 million yuan (38% growth) - 2026E: 3,091 million yuan (31% growth) [1][3]. - The report indicates a significant increase in cash flow per share, projected to reach 1.33 yuan by 2026 [1][3]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company has established a strong foothold in the domestic x86 market, with a notable increase in project wins and revenue in the intelligent computing sector. The report notes a 32.8% year-on-year growth in the intelligent computing market [1][3]. - The company’s products are noted for their ecological, performance, and security advantages, with ongoing improvements in CPU and DCU performance [1][3].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company [2]. Core Views - Runhe Software is positioned as a core player in the Huawei ecosystem, with steady progress in the commercialization of Euler, Harmony, and AI technologies. The company focuses on IoT, edge intelligence, data governance, and AI applications, supported by traditional sectors such as financial technology, smart IoT, and smart energy [3][4]. Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 3,106 million yuan in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 4%. The net profit reached 164 million yuan, marking a significant increase of 55% compared to the previous year. The projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 258 million yuan, 347 million yuan, and 462 million yuan, respectively [2][22][24]. Business Segments Traditional Business - The company operates in three main sectors: financial technology (54.92% of revenue), smart IoT (29.30%), and smart energy (11.05%). The financial technology sector remains a traditional strength, with a leading market share in third-party testing for financial information systems [12][14]. Innovative Business - The innovative business segment has shown remarkable growth, with a revenue increase of over 90% in the first half of 2024, contributing more than 20% to total revenue. This includes advancements in OpenHarmony, openEuler, and AI platforms [15][18]. Market Opportunities - The report highlights the significant growth potential in the domestic IoT market, with projections indicating that China's IoT spending will approach 300 billion USD by 2027, representing a substantial share of global investments [28][30]. Strategic Partnerships - Runhe Software has maintained a deep partnership with Huawei for over a decade, focusing on cloud computing, operating systems, and AI technologies. This collaboration enhances the company's capabilities in the rapidly evolving tech landscape [17][20]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides valuation metrics, indicating a P/E ratio of 133.0x for 2024, 98.7x for 2025, and 74.2x for 2026, reflecting the company's growth prospects and market positioning [2][22].