招商积余（001914.SZ）/房 地产行业 证券研究报告/公司点评 2024 年 9 月 9 日 [Table_Industry] | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------|-------|--------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------ ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) with a market price of 15.88 CNY [1]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth from 2024 to 2026, with projected revenues of 78.22 billion CNY, 85.46 billion CNY, and 95.57 billion CNY respectively. Corresponding net profits are forecasted to be 15.81 billion CNY, 17.74 billion CNY, and 20.11 billion CNY, with P/E ratios of 19, 17, and 15 times [5]. - The company reported a slight revenue increase of 0.32% year-on-year for the first half of 2024, but net profit saw a significant decline of 93.30% [4]. - The company is focusing on diversifying its business segments, with varying performance across different sectors, such as a 16.99% decline in wealth technology services and a 9.17% increase in asset management technology services [4]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2022 was 6,502 million CNY, with a projected increase to 7,281 million CNY in 2023, and further growth to 7,822 million CNY in 2024 [1]. - The net profit for 2022 was 1,091 million CNY, expected to rise to 1,424 million CNY in 2023, and reach 1,581 million CNY in 2024 [1]. - The gross margin for the first half of 2024 was reported at 71.32%, indicating stable profitability [4]. - The company has implemented effective cost control measures, resulting in a decrease in sales, management, and R&D expense ratios compared to the previous year [4]. Stock Performance and Market Capitalization - The total share capital of the company is 1,894 million shares, with a market capitalization of 30,079 million CNY [2]. - The stock price as of September 9, 2024, is 15.88 CNY, reflecting the company's current market valuation [2].

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In August 2024, the CPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[1] - Year-on-year, the CPI rose by 0.6%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous value, but below market expectations of 0.7%[1] - Food prices significantly supported the CPI, with a month-on-month increase of 3.4%, contributing approximately 0.6 percentage points to the CPI rise[1] - Extreme weather conditions led to notable price increases in fresh vegetables (18.1%), fresh mushrooms (9.8%), fresh fruits (3.8%), and eggs (3.3%) in August[1] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI decreased by 0.7% month-on-month in August, with the decline widening by 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous month[1] - Year-on-year, the PPI fell by 1.8%, a larger drop than the market expectation of -1.4%[1] - The decline in PPI was primarily driven by insufficient domestic demand and falling prices of some international bulk commodities[1] - In August, upstream raw material prices fell by 1.2% and mining prices by 1.6%, both showing a significant decline from previous values[1] Group 3: Core CPI Insights - Excluding food and energy prices, the core CPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, lower than the average of 0.0% over the past five years[1] - The core CPI year-on-year was 0.3%, down from 0.4%, marking the lowest level since April 2021, indicating weak domestic demand[1] - The overall price trend remains weak, with the core CPI reflecting increasing downward pressure on prices[1] Group 4: Economic Implications - The report highlights that the current economic environment is characterized by weak consumer demand and low price levels, with oversupply being a significant issue[1] - The need for fiscal stimulus and moderate supply-side adjustments is emphasized to address the low price situation[1] - Risks include potential policy changes and economic recovery not meeting expectations, which could impact future market conditions[1]

核心 CPI 环比转负——8 月通胀数据点评 证券研究报告/固定收益点评 2024 年 9 月 9 日 [Table_Industry] [分Ta析bl师e_：Ti肖tle雨] 执业证书编号：S0740520110001 投资要点 Email：xiaoyu@zts.com.cn 研究助理：张可迎 事件：国家统计局公布，2024 年 8 月 CPI 同比上涨 0.6%，环比上涨 0.4%；PPI 同比 下降 1.8%，环比下降 0.7%。我们点评如下： 8 月 CPI 同比 0.6%（前值 0.5%），不及市场预期值 0.7%，食品和非食品明显分化，增 速分别为 2.8%和 0.2%。从八大项来看，除"食品烟酒"分项同比增速大幅回升以外， 其余分项增速均出现回落，呈现食品价格上升、服务业价格走弱特征。 食品项是 8 月份 CPI 回升的主要拉动项，由猪肉和鲜菜价格上涨带动。8 月份食品 CP I 同比增速为 2.8%（前值为 0），去年 7 月至今年 6 月，食品价格同比增速持续为负， 而随着 7 月份猪肉价格和鲜菜价格上涨，食品项 CPI 同比升至 0 附近。8 月份，供给冲 击进一步发酵，生猪产能去化进一步 ...

、 测算｜存量房贷利率下调的影响：负债端支撑下影响可控 银行 证券研究报告/专题研究报告 2024 年 09 月 09 日 [Table_Title] 评级：增持（维持） 分析师 戴志锋 执业证书编号：S0740517030004 Email：daizf@zts.com.cn 分析师 邓美君 执业证书编号：S0740519050002 Email：dengmj@zts.com.cn 研究助理 杨超伦 Email：yangcl@zts.com.cn 研究助理 Email：yangcl@zts.com.cn [Table_Profit] 基本状况 上市公司数 42 行业总市值(亿元) 112,493 行业流通市值(亿元) 77,125 [Table_QuotePic] 行业-市场走势对比 -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 公司持有该股票比例 [Table_Report] 相关报告 [Table_Finance] 重点公司基本状况 报告摘要 ◼ 核心观点：1、房贷利率下调测算：本轮存量房贷利率下调空间在 50bp 左右，对上 市银行 25E 息差影响-5.6bp，营收-3.1pcts ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase of over 15% in the stock price compared to the benchmark index within the next 6 to 12 months [7]. Core Insights - The company reported a 3.3% year-on-year increase in main business revenue for the first half of 2024, amounting to 2.77 billion HKD, with a net profit of 302 million HKD, reflecting a 2.7% increase year-on-year [2][4]. - The overall gross profit margin improved from 26.8% in the same period of 2023 to 27.2% in 2024, with specific segments showing stable performance [2]. - The report highlights a decline in the value-added services segment, with a 22.3% drop in revenue from developer value-added services and an 8.8% decrease in community value-added services, attributed to a strategic slowdown in growth and changes in business structure [2][4]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Profit Forecast: - Revenue is projected to grow from 5,433 million HKD in 2023 to 6,277 million HKD by 2026, with growth rates of 5% in 2023 and 7% in 2024 [1]. - Net profit is expected to increase from 445 million HKD in 2023 to 561 million HKD by 2026, with a year-on-year growth of 12% in 2024 [1][4]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.51 HKD in 2023 to 0.64 HKD by 2026 [1][4]. - The Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 5.3 in 2023 to 4.2 by 2026, indicating a potentially undervalued stock [1][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights a recovery in rare earth prices driven by downstream inventory replenishment, with the price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide rising to 403,200 CNY/ton, a month-on-month increase of 4.78% [2][3]. - The investment strategy suggests that the manufacturing sector's inventory replenishment, combined with increased supply-side uncertainties, is likely to lead to a general upward trend in the prices of minor metals, particularly recommending rare earths, tin, antimony, and tungsten [2][3]. - The report notes that the short-term demand for rare earths is gradually recovering, with manufacturers maintaining prices, and anticipates explosive growth in multiple consumption scenarios such as robotics and electric vehicles in the medium to long term [2][3]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The non-ferrous metals sector has shown a weak performance, with the Shenwan Non-ferrous Metals Index down by 5.13%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.41 percentage points [10]. - The report indicates a mixed performance in minor metal prices, with tin prices experiencing a decline of 4.83% on the SHFE and 3.52% on the LME [2][10]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report notes a tightening supply for antimony, with domestic antimony concentrate prices stable at 138,000 CNY/ton and antimony ingot prices at 161,000 CNY/ton [3][12]. - Tin prices are expected to trend upwards due to a combination of recovering demand and supply constraints, with a notable decrease in social inventory by 1,396 tons [3][12]. Lithium Market - Lithium prices continue to decline, with battery-grade lithium carbonate prices dropping by 5.33% to 71,000 CNY/ton, and battery-grade lithium hydroxide prices down by 1.66% to 74,000 CNY/ton [2][9]. - The report highlights that current lithium prices have breached the industry's marginal cost, leading to potential production cuts as companies respond to the price decline [2][9]. Rare Earths - The report emphasizes that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Ministry of Natural Resources have issued total control indicators for rare earth mining and smelting, leading to a slowdown in supply growth [2][12]. - The price of neodymium oxide has increased by 7.10% to 437,500 CNY/ton, while dysprosium oxide has risen by 4.39% to 1,785,000 CNY/ton [12][13]. Electric Vehicles and Photovoltaics - The report notes that in July 2024, domestic new energy vehicle production and sales reached 984,000 and 991,000 units, respectively, marking year-on-year growth of 22.3% and 27% [17]. - The photovoltaic sector saw a strong year-on-year increase in new installations, with 21.05 GW added in July 2024, a 12.3% increase compared to the previous year [16].

24H1 业绩超预期，强品牌驱动持续高增长 珀莱雅(603605.SH)/美容护理 证券研究报告/公司点评 2024 年 9 月 9 日 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------|-----------------------------|-------|--------------------------|--------|--------| | [Table_Title] 评级：买入（维持） [Table_Industry] \n市场价格： 89.72 元 | [Table_Finance 公司盈利预测及估值 1] | \n2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 分析师：郑澄怀 | 营业收入（百元） | 6,385 | 8,905 | 11,675 | 14,445 | 17,05 ...

[Table_Industry] [Table_Title] 评级：买入（维持） 市场价格：56.93 元/股 [Table_Finance 公司盈利预测及估值 1] 指标 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 营业收入（百万元） 1,385 1,717 2,082 2,970 3,745 增长率 yoy% 67% 24% 21.3% 42.6% 26.1% 净利润（百万元） 200 251 308 462 604 增长率 yoy% 159% 25% 23.0% 49.9% 30.7% 每股收益（元） 1.00 1.25 1.53 2.30 3.01 每股现金流量 0.96 -2.80 2.62 -0.01 1.13 净资产收益率 10% 11% 12% 15% 16% P/E 57.1 45.6 37.1 24.7 18.9 P/B 5.4 4.8 4.3 3.7 3.1 备注：每股指标按照最新股本数全面摊薄，股价按 9 月 6 日收盘价进行计算 [Table_Profit] 基本状况 总股本(百万股) 201 流通股本(百万股) 201 市价(元) 56.93 市值(百万元) 11, ...

[Table_Industry] 市场价格：8.93 元 [评Ta级ble：_T买itle入] （维持） [公Ta司ble盈_F利in预anc测e]及估值 指标 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 营业收入（百万元） 183,003 175,008 189,008 198,459 204,412 增长率 yoy% 14% -4% 8% 5% 3% 净利润（百万元） 4,264 6,319 7,094 7,639 8,165 增长率 yoy% -59% 48% 12% 8% 7% 每股收益（元） 0.47 0.70 0.78 0.84 0.90 每股现金流量 2.45 3.47 4.28 1.87 4.25 净资产收益率 1% 2% 2% 2% 3% P/E 19.0 12.8 11.4 10.6 9.9 P/B 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 备注：股价以 9 月 6 日收盘价为准 [基Ta本ble状_P况rofit] 招商蛇口（001979.SZ）/房 地产行业 证券研究报告/公司点评 2024 年 9 月 9 日 分析师：由子沛 执业证书编号：S0740523020005 ...