Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an investment rating for the real estate industry [1][2][3] Core Views - In November, the month-on-month decline in second-hand and new residential property prices in 70 cities continued to narrow, with second-hand home prices in first-tier cities rising by 0.4% for two consecutive months, and new home prices stabilizing [3][5] - National commercial housing sales data showed positive year-on-year growth for the first time since June 2023, with cumulative sales decline narrowing from January to November [3][5] - The land market improved significantly in November, with a narrowing decline in real estate development funding sources and a significant rebound in personal mortgage loans and advance payments [3][16] - The Central Politburo and Central Economic Work Conference in December reiterated the policy tone of stabilizing the real estate market, with expectations of further policy support in 2025, particularly in reducing the high actual mortgage interest rates [3][33] Price and Sales Performance - In November, second-hand home prices in 70 cities fell by 0.35% month-on-month, narrowing by 0.13 percentage points, with first-tier cities rising by 0.4% for the second consecutive month [7] - New home prices in 70 cities fell by 0.20% month-on-month, narrowing by 0.31 percentage points, with first-tier cities stabilizing after a previous decline [9] - National commercial housing sales area and sales volume in November increased by 3.2% and 1.0% year-on-year, respectively, marking the first positive growth since June 2023 [13] Investment Performance - Real estate development investment in November was 7325.1 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline narrowing by 0.75 percentage points to 11.6%, but the cumulative decline from January to November expanded to 10.4% [17] - Real estate development funding sources in November were 9340.3 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline narrowing by 6.0 percentage points to 4.8%, supported by a rebound in personal mortgage loans and advance payments [19] - New construction, construction, and completion areas in November fell by 26.8%, 40.2%, and 38.8% year-on-year, respectively, with cumulative declines expanding from January to November [23] Land Market Performance - In November, the planned construction area of residential land transactions in 100 major cities was 5510.9 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 40.8%, with total transaction value rising by 84.9% year-on-year [26][27] - The average land price per square meter in first-tier, second-tier, and third-tier cities increased by 29.9%, 21.1%, and 3.1% month-on-month, respectively [27] Policy Outlook - The Central Politburo and Central Economic Work Conference in December emphasized stabilizing the real estate market, with expectations of further policy support in 2025, particularly in reducing high actual mortgage interest rates [31][33] - The central bank is expected to implement significant interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions in 2025, with a potential policy rate cut of 0.5 percentage points, higher than the 0.3 percentage points cut in 2024 [33]

Credit and Financing Trends - In November 2024, new RMB loans amounted to 580 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 510 billion, reflecting a significant contraction in credit growth[3] - The total social financing (TSF) for November was 23,357 billion, down 1,197 billion year-on-year, indicating continued weakness in financing[3] - The broad money supply (M2) grew by 7.1% year-on-year, a slowdown of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, while narrow money (M1) decreased by 3.7%[3] Factors Influencing Credit Dynamics - The decline in new loans is primarily attributed to debt replacement policies, leading to early repayment of existing loans by local government financing platforms[5] - A significant amount of non-performing loans was written off in November, further impacting the new loan figures[5] - Excluding these factors, the underlying demand for loans appears stronger, supported by recent monetary policy easing measures[5] Real Estate Market Impact - The real estate market showed signs of recovery in November, with a 19.8% year-on-year increase in the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 cities, marking the first positive growth since June of the previous year[9] - The increase in housing sales is expected to boost demand for residential loans, with long-term loans for residents increasing by 669 billion in November[9] Future Outlook - The central bank is expected to lower the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 0.25-0.5 percentage points, releasing between 500 billion to 1 trillion RMB to support credit expansion[4] - The shift in monetary policy from "prudent" to "moderately accommodative" signals a significant increase in counter-cyclical adjustments, which may enhance support for the real economy[4] - Despite the anticipated increase in credit supply, the scale of debt replacement is expected to continue influencing new credit and social financing data in December[4]

Economic Overview - In November, the industrial added value increased by 5.4% year-on-year, slightly up from 5.3% in October[2] - The total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 3.0% year-on-year in November, down from 4.8% in October[2] - Fixed asset investment from January to November accumulated a year-on-year growth of 3.3%, slightly down from 3.4%[2] Industrial Production - The manufacturing sector's added value grew by 6.0% year-on-year in November, accelerating by 0.6 percentage points from the previous month[4] - The industrial production growth rate is expected to remain between 5.0% and 6.0% in December due to ongoing policy support and improved market confidence[4][8] Consumer Trends - November retail sales growth slowed by 1.8 percentage points compared to October, primarily due to the early "Double Eleven" sales event[9] - Despite the slowdown, the average growth rate for October and November combined was 3.9%, significantly higher than the 2.7% average in Q3[10] - Automotive retail sales increased by 6.6% year-on-year in November, with home appliance sales maintaining a high growth rate of 22.2%[13] Investment Insights - From January to November, fixed asset investment growth was stable at 3.3%, with infrastructure and manufacturing investment both showing high growth rates of 9.4% and 9.3% respectively[15][19] - The broad infrastructure investment growth rate, including electricity, was 9.4%, indicating strong policy support for infrastructure projects[18] Real Estate Sector - Real estate investment decreased by 10.4% year-on-year from January to November, with the decline accelerating compared to the previous month[24] - The government has increased financing support for "white list" real estate projects, which is expected to improve investment conditions moving forward[25]

11 月制造业景气度继续温和回升；资金面跨月无虞，债市整体走强 【内容摘要】 11 月 29 日，资金面整体宽松，跨月无虞；债市整体走强；旭辉集团 87.36%债 权人签署或加入境外债重组协议；中骏集团控股境外债重组就关键条款与债权人小组达成共 识；泰禾集团因涉嫌信披违法违规被中国证监会立案；转债市场跟随权益市场继续上涨，转债 个券多数上涨；海外方面，各期限美债收益率普遍下行，主要欧洲经济体 10 年期国债收益率 普遍下行。 一、债市要闻 （一）国内要闻 【国家统计局：11 月份制造业 PMI 为 50.3%，比上月上升 0.2 个百分点】国家统计局 11 月 30 日发布的数据显示，11 月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为 50.3%，比上月上升 0.2 个百分 点，连续 3 个月上升，且连续 2 个月运行在扩张区间。非制造业商务活动指数为 50.0%，比上 月下降 0.2 个百分点。综合 PMI 产出指数为 50.8%，与上月持平，表明我国经济景气水平总体 保持稳定扩张。国家统计局服务业调查中心高级统计师赵庆河表示，11 月份，随着一系列存 量政策和增量政策持续协同发力，制造业 PMI 在景气区间上行， ...

Economic Policy Insights - The Central Political Bureau emphasized a more proactive macro policy to boost domestic demand and stabilize the real estate and stock markets, aiming for a sustainable economic recovery[3] - The meeting highlighted the need for "extraordinary counter-cyclical adjustments," marking a historical shift from passive to proactive policy responses[3] - The proposal for "moderately loose monetary policy" is the first mention since 2014, indicating potential for significant interest rate cuts in the coming year[3] Inflation and Price Trends - November CPI rose by 0.2% year-on-year, while PPI fell by 2.5%, with expectations of a 2.7% decline, indicating a narrowing of the deflationary trend[4] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.3% year-on-year, reflecting a recovery in domestic industrial demand[5] Bond Market Developments - The bond market saw a significant rally, with the 10-year government bond yield hitting a record low of 1.9050%, down 5.00 basis points[17] - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 471 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.50%, resulting in a net liquidity injection of 138 billion yuan[12] International Market Trends - U.S. Treasury yields rose across all maturities, with the 10-year yield increasing by 5 basis points to 4.20%[28] - Major European economies showed mixed results, with Germany's 10-year yield up by 1 basis point to 2.12% while others remained unchanged[31] Corporate Bond Market Activity - Shimao Group's shareholder announced the freezing of 265 million shares, representing 7.0645% of the total share capital, due to a financial dispute[21] - Country Garden received disciplinary measures from stock exchanges for failing to timely disclose its 2023 annual report[22] Convertible Bond Market Performance - The convertible bond market outperformed the equity market, with major indices rising by 0.12% to 0.15% on December 9[25] - The total trading volume in the convertible bond market was 712.39 billion yuan, a decrease of 57.65 billion yuan from the previous trading day[25]

1 | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------|---------------------| | 2024 年 12 月中央经济工作会议要点解读 | 东方金诚宏观研究 \n | | 首席宏观分析师 王青 | 研究发展部总监 冯琳 | 2024 年中央经济工作会议 12 月 11 日至 12 日在北京举行，我们对本次会议公报做如下要点解读： 本次会议主要围绕 12 月 9 日中央政治局会议确定的政策基调，对 2025 年经济工作做出全面部署，核 心是安排 2025 年要抓好的重点任务。本次会议对 2025 年宏观政策的部署更为具体，明确指出更加积极的 财政政策要"提高财政赤字率，增加发行超长期特别国债，增加地方政府专项债券发行使用。"我们判断， 明年"两会"政府工作报告确定的目标财政赤字率会从今年的 3.0%上调至 4.0%左右，新增地方专项债规 模会从今年的 3.9 万亿扩大到 7 万亿左右，这包含了 2.8 万亿化债额度；预计明年除了发行 1 万亿左右特 别国债补充大行资本外，超长期特别国债还会继续发行，估计发行规模会从今年的 1 万 ...

Fiscal Policy - The fiscal deficit rate is expected to increase from 3.0% in 2024 to around 4.0% in 2025[2] - New local government special bond issuance is projected to rise from CNY 3.9 trillion to approximately CNY 7 trillion, including CNY 2.8 trillion for debt resolution[2] - The issuance of long-term special bonds is anticipated to increase from CNY 1 trillion to between CNY 1.5 trillion and CNY 2 trillion[3] Monetary Policy - A policy interest rate cut of up to 0.5 percentage points is expected, higher than the 0.3 percentage points cut in 2024[3] - The growth rate of social financing and money supply is projected to align with economic growth and price level expectations[3] - Significant support for consumer credit is anticipated, with potential targeted tools to enhance financing conditions for residents[7] Real Estate Policy - The focus will be on stabilizing the real estate market, with measures including lowering mortgage rates and increasing credit for real estate companies[4] - The priority for 2025 is to boost consumption, with a doubling of funds for durable goods replacement to CNY 300 billion[7] - The actual mortgage rates, adjusted for price factors, are expected to decrease to stimulate demand[4] Investment Strategy - Fixed asset investment growth is projected at around 4.0%, a slight increase from the previous year[8] - Infrastructure investment will continue to grow, with local government special bond issuance for projects expected to reach CNY 3 trillion[8] - Manufacturing investment growth is expected to remain robust at around 7.0% despite external uncertainties[9] External Trade and Economic Growth - The GDP growth rate is forecasted to remain between 4.5% and 5.0% in 2025, supported by domestic demand expansion[12] - Measures to stabilize foreign trade will include expanding export credit insurance and enhancing cross-border e-commerce initiatives[12] - The government aims to deepen reforms to attract foreign investment and stabilize the external trade environment[10]

Market Overview - The market shows divergence regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations, leading to a decline in gold prices. As of December 6, the Shanghai gold futures price fell by 0.46% to 615.94 CNY/g, while COMEX gold futures dropped by 0.71% to 2654.90 USD/oz[1] - The cautious stance of the Federal Reserve, particularly comments from Powell indicating a stronger-than-expected U.S. economy, supports a high dollar and suppresses gold prices[1] Price Movements - Last week, the Shanghai gold futures closed at 615.94 CNY/g, down 2.86 CNY/g from the previous week, and COMEX gold futures closed at 2654.90 USD/oz, down 19.0 USD/oz[4] - Gold T+D spot prices decreased by 0.19% to 613.79 CNY/g, and London gold spot prices fell by 0.67% to 2632.66 USD/oz[1] Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical risks, including unrest in South Korea and France, and the worsening situation in Syria, are expected to support gold prices due to increased demand for safe-haven assets[2] Economic Indicators - The U.S. November CPI data is anticipated to show a slight rebound due to a low base from the previous year, which may dampen market expectations for interest rate cuts and limit gold's upward potential[2] - The U.S. November non-farm payrolls increased by 227,000, exceeding expectations, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%[28] ETF Holdings and Trading Volume - Global SPDR gold ETF holdings decreased by 6.61 tons to 871.94 tons, indicating a decline in investor interest[16] - The total trading volume for gold T+D fell significantly by 28.05% to 130,404 kg last week[16] Futures Market Analysis - The international gold basis (spot-futures) rose slightly to 3.90 USD/oz, while the Shanghai gold basis improved to -1.57 CNY/g[9] - The gold futures market saw a slight increase in net long positions, with a minor drop in short positions, indicating a cautious sentiment among investors[16]

Export Data - In November 2024, the export value increased by 6.7% year-on-year, a significant drop of 6 percentage points from October's 12.7% growth[2][4] - The export growth rate in November, when measured in RMB, was 5.8%, compared to a decline of 4.7% in imports[3] - The high base effect from the previous year, where November 2023 saw a 0.7% increase, contributed to the lower growth rate in November 2024[4] Import Data - November 2024 saw a 3.9% year-on-year decline in imports, which is a 1.6 percentage point increase in the decline compared to October[10] - The marginal growth momentum for imports was weak, with a month-on-month increase of only 0.8% in November, below seasonal expectations[10][11] - Key commodities showed varied trends: - Oil imports saw a price drop but a volume increase, leading to a reduced decline in import value to -4.7%[15] - Iron ore imports turned negative at -0.9%, with prices also declining, contributing to a larger drop in import value[15] - Soybean imports fell by 9.7% in volume, leading to a 22.5% decline in import value[15] Future Outlook - The export growth for December is projected to be around 6.0%, influenced by potential "rush exports" to the U.S.[8] - For imports, December's growth is expected to be limited, likely around 0%, due to high base effects and falling commodity prices[16]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In November 2024, the CPI year-on-year growth rate was 0.2%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, lower than market expectations[1] - The decline in food prices, particularly vegetables and fruits, was significant, with vegetable prices dropping 13.2% and fruit prices down 3.0% month-on-month[7] - Non-food prices remained stable, with a slight increase in the year-on-year growth rate compared to the previous month[7] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI year-on-year decline narrowed to -2.5% in November, a reduction of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, ending a three-month trend of expanding declines[11] - The PPI month-on-month increased by 0.1%, marking a return to positive growth after five months[11] - The improvement in the PPI was driven by durable consumer goods, with the PPI for living materials showing significant recovery[12] Group 3: Future Outlook - For December, CPI is expected to rise to around 0.4% year-on-year, with a potential shift from negative to positive month-on-month growth[2] - The PPI year-on-year decline is projected to further narrow to approximately -2.3% due to a continued low base from the previous year[2] - The effectiveness of counter-cyclical adjustment policies and the stabilization of the real estate market will be crucial for future industrial product prices[3]