Economic Policy Insights - The Central Political Bureau emphasized a more proactive macro policy to boost domestic demand and stabilize the real estate and stock markets, aiming for a sustainable economic recovery[3] - The meeting highlighted the need for "extraordinary counter-cyclical adjustments," marking a historical shift from passive to proactive policy responses[3] - The proposal for "moderately loose monetary policy" is the first mention since 2014, indicating potential for significant interest rate cuts in the coming year[3] Inflation and Price Trends - November CPI rose by 0.2% year-on-year, while PPI fell by 2.5%, with expectations of a 2.7% decline, indicating a narrowing of the deflationary trend[4] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.3% year-on-year, reflecting a recovery in domestic industrial demand[5] Bond Market Developments - The bond market saw a significant rally, with the 10-year government bond yield hitting a record low of 1.9050%, down 5.00 basis points[17] - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 471 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.50%, resulting in a net liquidity injection of 138 billion yuan[12] International Market Trends - U.S. Treasury yields rose across all maturities, with the 10-year yield increasing by 5 basis points to 4.20%[28] - Major European economies showed mixed results, with Germany's 10-year yield up by 1 basis point to 2.12% while others remained unchanged[31] Corporate Bond Market Activity - Shimao Group's shareholder announced the freezing of 265 million shares, representing 7.0645% of the total share capital, due to a financial dispute[21] - Country Garden received disciplinary measures from stock exchanges for failing to timely disclose its 2023 annual report[22] Convertible Bond Market Performance - The convertible bond market outperformed the equity market, with major indices rising by 0.12% to 0.15% on December 9[25] - The total trading volume in the convertible bond market was 712.39 billion yuan, a decrease of 57.65 billion yuan from the previous trading day[25]

Fiscal Policy - The fiscal deficit rate is expected to increase from 3.0% in 2024 to around 4.0% in 2025[2] - The scale of new local special bonds is projected to expand from 3.9 trillion to approximately 7 trillion yuan, including 2.8 trillion for debt resolution[2] - The issuance of special long-term bonds is anticipated to rise from 1 trillion to between 1.5 trillion and 2 trillion yuan[3] Monetary Policy - A policy interest rate cut of up to 0.5 percentage points is expected in 2025, higher than the 0.3 percentage points cut in 2024[3] - The growth of social financing and money supply is projected to align with economic growth and price level expectations[3] - Significant support for consumer credit is anticipated, with potential targeted tools to lower financing costs for residents[7] Real Estate Policy - The focus will be on stabilizing the real estate market, with measures including lowering mortgage rates and increasing credit for real estate companies[4] - The actual mortgage rates, adjusted for price factors, are expected to decrease further[4] - The real estate investment decline is projected to narrow to around 6.0% in 2025[9] Consumption and Investment - The growth rate of retail sales is expected to accelerate from approximately 3.8% in 2024 to 6.0% in 2025, with final consumption contributing 70%-80% to economic growth[7] - Fixed asset investment growth is projected to be around 4.0%, with infrastructure investment supported by an estimated 3 trillion yuan in new local government special bonds[8] - Manufacturing investment is expected to maintain a growth rate of about 7.0%[9] External Trade - Measures to stabilize foreign trade will include expanding export credit insurance and enhancing cross-border e-commerce initiatives[11] - The macroeconomic policy aimed at expanding domestic demand is expected to counterbalance external trade shocks, maintaining GDP growth between 4.5% and 5.0%[12]

Fiscal Policy - The fiscal deficit rate is expected to increase from 3.0% in 2024 to around 4.0% in 2025[2] - New local government special bond issuance is projected to rise from CNY 3.9 trillion to approximately CNY 7 trillion, including CNY 2.8 trillion for debt resolution[2] - The issuance of long-term special bonds is anticipated to increase from CNY 1 trillion to between CNY 1.5 trillion and CNY 2 trillion[3] Monetary Policy - A policy interest rate cut of up to 0.5 percentage points is expected, higher than the 0.3 percentage points cut in 2024[3] - The growth rate of social financing and money supply is projected to align with economic growth and price level expectations[3] - Significant support for consumer credit is anticipated, with potential targeted tools to enhance financing conditions for residents[7] Real Estate Policy - The focus will be on stabilizing the real estate market, with measures including lowering mortgage rates and increasing credit for real estate companies[4] - The priority for 2025 is to boost consumption, with a doubling of funds for durable goods replacement to CNY 300 billion[7] - The actual mortgage rates, adjusted for price factors, are expected to decrease to stimulate demand[4] Investment Strategy - Fixed asset investment growth is projected at around 4.0%, a slight increase from the previous year[8] - Infrastructure investment will continue to grow, with local government special bond issuance for projects expected to reach CNY 3 trillion[8] - Manufacturing investment growth is expected to remain robust at around 7.0% despite external uncertainties[9] External Trade and Economic Growth - The GDP growth rate is forecasted to remain between 4.5% and 5.0% in 2025, supported by domestic demand expansion[12] - Measures to stabilize foreign trade will include expanding export credit insurance and enhancing cross-border e-commerce initiatives[12] - The government aims to deepen reforms to attract foreign investment and stabilize the external trade environment[10]

Market Overview - The market shows divergence regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations, leading to a decline in gold prices. As of December 6, the Shanghai gold futures price fell by 0.46% to 615.94 CNY/g, while COMEX gold futures dropped by 0.71% to 2654.90 USD/oz[1] - The cautious stance of the Federal Reserve, particularly comments from Powell indicating a stronger-than-expected U.S. economy, supports a high dollar and suppresses gold prices[1] Price Movements - Last week, the Shanghai gold futures closed at 615.94 CNY/g, down 2.86 CNY/g from the previous week, and COMEX gold futures closed at 2654.90 USD/oz, down 19.0 USD/oz[4] - Gold T+D spot prices decreased by 0.19% to 613.79 CNY/g, and London gold spot prices fell by 0.67% to 2632.66 USD/oz[1] Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical risks, including unrest in South Korea and France, and the worsening situation in Syria, are expected to support gold prices due to increased demand for safe-haven assets[2] Economic Indicators - The U.S. November CPI data is anticipated to show a slight rebound due to a low base from the previous year, which may dampen market expectations for interest rate cuts and limit gold's upward potential[2] - The U.S. November non-farm payrolls increased by 227,000, exceeding expectations, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%[28] ETF Holdings and Trading Volume - Global SPDR gold ETF holdings decreased by 6.61 tons to 871.94 tons, indicating a decline in investor interest[16] - The total trading volume for gold T+D fell significantly by 28.05% to 130,404 kg last week[16] Futures Market Analysis - The international gold basis (spot-futures) rose slightly to 3.90 USD/oz, while the Shanghai gold basis improved to -1.57 CNY/g[9] - The gold futures market saw a slight increase in net long positions, with a minor drop in short positions, indicating a cautious sentiment among investors[16]

Export Data - In November 2024, the export value increased by 6.7% year-on-year, a significant drop of 6 percentage points from October's 12.7% growth[2][4] - The export growth rate in November, when measured in RMB, was 5.8%, compared to a decline of 4.7% in imports[3] - The high base effect from the previous year, where November 2023 saw a 0.7% increase, contributed to the lower growth rate in November 2024[4] Import Data - November 2024 saw a 3.9% year-on-year decline in imports, which is a 1.6 percentage point increase in the decline compared to October[10] - The marginal growth momentum for imports was weak, with a month-on-month increase of only 0.8% in November, below seasonal expectations[10][11] - Key commodities showed varied trends: - Oil imports saw a price drop but a volume increase, leading to a reduced decline in import value to -4.7%[15] - Iron ore imports turned negative at -0.9%, with prices also declining, contributing to a larger drop in import value[15] - Soybean imports fell by 9.7% in volume, leading to a 22.5% decline in import value[15] Future Outlook - The export growth for December is projected to be around 6.0%, influenced by potential "rush exports" to the U.S.[8] - For imports, December's growth is expected to be limited, likely around 0%, due to high base effects and falling commodity prices[16]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In November 2024, the CPI year-on-year growth rate was 0.2%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, lower than market expectations[1] - The decline in food prices, particularly vegetables and fruits, was significant, with vegetable prices dropping 13.2% and fruit prices down 3.0% month-on-month[7] - Non-food prices remained stable, with a slight increase in the year-on-year growth rate compared to the previous month[7] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI year-on-year decline narrowed to -2.5% in November, a reduction of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, ending a three-month trend of expanding declines[11] - The PPI month-on-month increased by 0.1%, marking a return to positive growth after five months[11] - The improvement in the PPI was driven by durable consumer goods, with the PPI for living materials showing significant recovery[12] Group 3: Future Outlook - For December, CPI is expected to rise to around 0.4% year-on-year, with a potential shift from negative to positive month-on-month growth[2] - The PPI year-on-year decline is projected to further narrow to approximately -2.3% due to a continued low base from the previous year[2] - The effectiveness of counter-cyclical adjustment policies and the stabilization of the real estate market will be crucial for future industrial product prices[3]

Group 1: Market Overview - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has eased, significantly reducing risk aversion, but expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December have increased, leading to fluctuations in gold prices[1] - On November 29, the Shanghai gold futures price fell by 1.45% to 618.80 CNY/gram, while COMEX gold futures dropped by 1.63% to 2673.90 USD/ounce[1] - Gold T+D spot prices decreased by 1.39% to 614.93 CNY/gram, and London gold spot prices fell by 2.41% to 2650.33 USD/ounce[1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. October core PCE price index rose to 2.8%, matching expectations and marking the highest level since April[22] - U.S. October durable goods orders increased by 0.2%, below the expected 0.5% but higher than the previous -0.7%[25] - The Eurozone's November harmonized CPI rose to 2.3%, exceeding the European Central Bank's target of 2%[26] Group 3: Market Trends - The gold market is expected to face downward pressure this week due to anticipated strong U.S. non-farm payroll data, which may temper rate cut expectations for next year[2] - Despite current economic resilience in the U.S. and weakness in Europe, geopolitical tensions from the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Middle East may continue to support gold prices in the medium to long term[2] - The international gold basis (spot-futures) rose significantly by 17.60 USD/ounce to 2.05 USD/ounce, while the Shanghai gold basis slightly decreased by 0.34 CNY/gram[9]

Manufacturing Sector Insights - In November 2024, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 50.3%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a continued recovery in manufacturing sentiment[2] - The New Orders Index within the manufacturing PMI reached 50.8%, up 0.8 percentage points, marking its first entry into the expansion zone in nearly seven months, significantly contributing to the overall PMI improvement[3] - The Production Index increased to 52.4%, up 0.4 percentage points, reflecting a boost in manufacturing output driven by improved market demand[4] Economic Policy Impact - The positive trends in manufacturing are attributed to the effectiveness of existing and new economic policies, including a 150 billion yuan special bond to support durable goods and tax reductions in the real estate sector[4] - High-frequency data indicates strong export performance, contributing to the demand side of manufacturing[4] - The Production Expectations Index rose to 54.7%, up 0.7 percentage points, indicating growing confidence among manufacturers regarding future market conditions[8] Price and Demand Dynamics - The Ex-factory Price Index fell by 2.2 percentage points to 47.7%, while the Purchasing Price Index dropped by 3.6 percentage points to 49.8%, entering the contraction zone, reflecting downward pressure from international oil prices and domestic raw material costs[8] - Over 60% of enterprises reported insufficient demand, suggesting that the overall economic recovery remains moderate despite the PMI increase[8] Service and Construction Sector Performance - The Non-Manufacturing PMI remained stable at 50.0%, with the Services PMI at 50.1%, indicating continued expansion in the service sector[9] - The Construction PMI fell to 49.7%, down 0.7 percentage points, entering the contraction zone for the first time since March 2020, primarily due to ongoing low real estate investment activities[9] Future Outlook - The December manufacturing PMI is expected to remain in the expansion zone at around 50.4%, indicating a significant improvement in macroeconomic conditions compared to Q3[10] - The forecast for Q4 GDP growth is approximately 5.3%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points from Q3, supporting the annual growth target of around 5.0%[10] - The sustainability of the economic recovery hinges on the real estate market stabilizing and potential changes in the external trade environment in 2025[11][13]

1 | --- | --- | --- | |-------|------------------|-----------------------------------------------------| | | 政策效果初步显现 | 量价指标边际改善 | | | | | | | | ——2024 年 10 月房地产行业运行情况报告 分析师 唐晓琳 | 核心观点： 价格及销售表现：10 月 70 城二手住宅价格和新建商品住宅价格环比跌幅出现不同程度收窄，其中 一线城市二手房价格迎来强势逆转，具有积极的信号意义。销售方面，10 月全国商品房销售数据 同比降幅显著收窄，且十一假期后 30 城日均销售套数大体稳定在 3000 套以上水平，显示政策释 放"止跌回稳"信号后，市场出现积极变化。 投资端表现：10 月房地产开发投资完成额降幅有所扩大，但房地产开发资金来源降幅有所收窄， 主要受销售端企稳回升支撑，定金及预收款和个人按揭贷款两项同比降幅显著收窄；施工方面， 10 月三项开工数据同比均呈双位数下降，其中新开工和施工面积降幅出现不同程度扩大；土地市 场方面也并不乐观，10 月土地成交面积同比双位数下降，对应成 ...

Group 1: LPR Rate Announcement - The new LPR rates announced on November 20, 2024, are 3.10% for the 1-year term and 3.60% for the 5-year term, unchanged from the previous month[2]. - The LPR rates remained stable after a significant reduction of 25 basis points in October, aligning with market expectations[3]. Group 2: Economic Context - The stability in LPR rates is attributed to the unchanged policy interest rates following the September rate cut, which indicated that November rates would likely remain steady[3]. - The macroeconomic environment showed improvement in October, with key economic indicators reflecting a recovery, particularly in the real estate market[3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Economic activity is expected to continue its upward trend until the end of the year, with stable policy interest rates and LPR rates likely to remain unchanged[4]. - The central bank is anticipated to maintain a supportive monetary policy stance in 2025, with potential for rate cuts and adjustments to LPR rates depending on economic conditions[4].