Revenue Insights - In October, general public budget revenue increased by 5.5% year-on-year, accelerating by 3.0 percentage points from the previous month[1] - Tax revenue grew by 1.8%, marking the first year-on-year positive growth this year, while non-tax revenue surged by 39.6%, up from 25.2% in the previous month[1] - Among the four major tax categories, VAT revenue's year-on-year decline narrowed significantly by 10.9 percentage points to -1.2%, while consumption tax revenue rebounded to 10.2% from -16.3%[2] Tax Performance - Personal income tax revenue turned positive at 5.6%, recovering from a previous decline of -1.8%, driven by reduced impacts from last year's tax cuts and increased second-hand housing transactions[2] - Stamp duty revenue rose by 25.9%, with securities transaction stamp duty increasing by 152.5%, attributed to enhanced market activity following new financing tools introduced by the central bank[2] Expenditure Trends - General public budget expenditure grew by 10.4% year-on-year in October, accelerating by 5.2 percentage points from the previous month[6] - Infrastructure spending saw a significant increase of 29.3%, up by 25.8 percentage points, indicating a strong focus on growth stabilization[6] - Social security and employment expenditure rose by 16.0%, reflecting increased support for employment policies[6] Fund Revenue and Debt Management - Government fund revenue decreased by 10.0% year-on-year, but the decline narrowed by 4.2 percentage points, with land transfer revenue down by 10.5%[7] - The government fund expenditure surged by 47.9%, indicating a strong response to growth stabilization policies[7] - The recent approval of an additional 60 billion yuan in local government debt limits aims to alleviate fiscal pressure and support growth initiatives[9]

Economic Overview - In October, the industrial added value increased by 5.3% year-on-year, slightly down from 5.4% in September[1] - Retail sales of consumer goods grew by 4.8% year-on-year in October, a significant increase from 3.2% in September[1] - Fixed asset investment accumulated a year-on-year growth of 3.4% from January to October, unchanged from the previous period[1] Industrial Production - The manufacturing added value rose by 5.4% year-on-year in October, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, marking the second consecutive month of acceleration[3] - The power, gas, and water production and supply sector saw a decline in growth rate from 10.1% to 5.4% due to a drop in electricity generation growth[3] - High-tech manufacturing added value grew by 9.4%, outpacing the overall industrial growth by 4.1 percentage points[5] Consumer Spending - The significant increase in retail sales was driven by policies supporting durable goods, with automotive retail sales up 3.7% and home appliance sales soaring by 39.2% year-on-year[7] - The "Double Eleven" pre-sale event started 10 days earlier than last year, contributing to the retail sales growth in October[7] - Service retail sales from January to October grew by 6.5%, indicating a stronger performance compared to the overall retail sales growth of 3.5%[8] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth remained stable at 3.4% year-on-year for the first ten months, supported by infrastructure and manufacturing investment increases[11] - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) grew by 4.3% year-on-year, ending a six-month decline, with a notable increase of 5.8% in October alone[12] - Manufacturing investment saw a year-on-year growth of 10.0% in October, marking a return to double-digit growth for the first time in seven months[14] Future Outlook - GDP growth is projected to reach approximately 5.2% year-on-year in the fourth quarter, ensuring the annual target of around 5.0% is met[18] - The real estate investment decline is expected to narrow due to accelerated loan disbursements for "white list" projects, with a forecasted annual decline of around -9.0%[16] - Continued implementation of growth-supporting policies is anticipated to enhance consumer confidence and spending in the coming months[9]

1 东方金诚宏观研究 美国 10 月 CPI 符合预期，12 月进一步降息基本确认 ——美国10月CPI数据简评 研究发展部高级副总监白雪 事件： 11 月 13 日周三，美国劳工统计局公布的 10 月份美国名义与核心 CPI 环比、同比增幅数 据均符合市场预期。其中，名义 CPI 同比增长 2.6%，较 9 月前值 2.4%抬升 0.2 个百分点，是 自今年 3 月份以来首次出现同比加速增长。名义 CPI 环比上涨 0.2%，核心 CPI 环比上涨 0.3% 且同比增 3.3%，都持平前值。 解读如下： 10 月美国 CPI 同比增速回升 0.2 个百分点至 2.6%，主因能源价格对通胀下行的贡献减 弱。10 月能源价格同比上涨 1.9 个百分点至-4.9%，同比降幅有所收窄。其中，汽油价格同 比上升 3.1 个百分点至-12.2%。背后的主要原因是地缘风险减弱，导致国际油价略有反弹— —10 月布伦特原油现货均价略有回升至 75.8 美元/桶。不过往后看，我们预计，在全球经 济，尤其是美欧经济放缓的背景下，能源价格仍将趋于回落。可以看到，10 月美国 ISM 制造 业 PMI 续降至 46.5，制造业景气 ...

Price Movements - On November 8, 2024, the Shanghai gold futures price fell by 2.26% to 615.48 CNY/g, while COMEX gold futures dropped by 1.97% to 2691.70 USD/oz[2] - Gold T+D spot price decreased by 2.31% to 612.87 CNY/g, and London gold spot price fell by 1.89% to 2684.04 USD/oz[2] - The overall adjustment in gold prices was significant, with a notable recovery to around 2700 USD/oz following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut[2] Market Trends - The market anticipates a weak fluctuation in gold prices for the week of November 11, 2024, due to profit-taking pressures from the "Trump trade" and upcoming U.S. inflation data[3] - The U.S. October CPI and PPI are expected to remain sticky, potentially leading to a decline in gold prices[3] Economic Indicators - The U.S. ISM Services PMI for October reached 56.0, the highest since July 2022, indicating economic resilience[15] - The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.5% to 4.75% on November 8, 2024, aligning with market expectations[20] Currency and Inflation Expectations - Following Trump's election victory, the U.S. dollar index rose by 0.60% to 104.95, driven by expectations of fiscal expansion[21] - The market's inflation expectations increased, leading to a rise in the 10-year TIPS yield to 1.95%, despite the Fed's rate cut[24] ETF and Trading Volumes - Global SPDR gold ETF holdings decreased by 11.78 tons to 876.85 tons, indicating a continued decline in investor interest[11] - The cumulative trading volume for gold T+D rose by 2.82% to 165,700 kg over the past week[11]

Loan and Financing Data - In October 2024, new RMB loans amounted to 500 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 238.4 billion, marking the sixth consecutive month of decline[1] - The total social financing scale in October was 1.3958 trillion, down 448.3 billion year-on-year[1] - The M2 money supply grew by 7.5% year-on-year, with an increase of 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous month[1] Economic Implications - The decrease in new loans is primarily attributed to intensified debt reduction policies, with local government financing platforms repaying or replacing existing loans[2] - Excluding the impact of debt reduction policies and last year's high base for government bond financing, the actual data for new loans and social financing in October shows improvement, indicating increased financial support for the real economy following recent monetary policy adjustments[2] Future Outlook - A peak in government bond issuance is expected in the last two months of the year, with a potential 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, releasing approximately 1 trillion in long-term funds into the banking system[3] - New loan growth is anticipated to remain robust, particularly with accelerated disbursement of loans for "white list" real estate projects[3] Sector-Specific Insights - Corporate loans showed weakness, with new medium- and long-term loans at 170 billion, down 212.8 billion year-on-year, marking the eighth consecutive month of decline[5] - Residential loans improved, with new short-term loans increasing by 49 billion, up 154.3 billion year-on-year, driven by supportive policies in the real estate sector[7] Social Financing Trends - In October, total social financing decreased by 448.3 billion year-on-year, primarily due to a significant drop in government bond financing, which fell by 514.2 billion year-on-year[8] - The stock of social financing grew at a record low of 7.8%, reflecting the ongoing challenges in the financing environment[8]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In October, the CPI decreased by 0.3% month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase slowing to 0.3% from 0.4% in the previous month, primarily due to weaker food and energy prices[2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, remained weak at 0.0% month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase rebounding to 0.2%, still below 1.0%[2] - Consumer demand is currently insufficient, contributing to the low price levels, with the consumer confidence index at 85.7, down for six consecutive months[8] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI showed signs of stabilization, with a month-on-month decline narrowing to -0.1%, while the year-on-year decline expanded to -2.9%[3] - The decline in PPI is expected to narrow to approximately -2.5% in November and -2.0% in December, driven by a series of incremental policies and a lower year-on-year base[3] - The prices of major commodities like steel, cement, and copper have increased since late September, contributing to the stabilization of PPI[3] Group 3: Food and Non-Food Prices - In October, food prices fell by 1.2% month-on-month, with year-on-year growth slowing to 2.9%, reducing their contribution to overall CPI[5] - Non-food prices remained flat month-on-month at 0.0%, with a year-on-year decline of 0.3%, primarily influenced by falling energy prices[6] - The average gasoline price decreased by 10.7% year-on-year, contributing to the overall decline in energy prices[7]

Foreign Exchange Reserves - As of the end of October 2024, China's foreign exchange reserves stood at $3,261.05 billion, a decrease of $55.32 billion from the previous month[1] - The foreign reserves experienced a decline of 1.7% month-on-month, ending a three-month period of significant increases[1] - The primary reason for the decline was a 3.1% rise in the US dollar index, which led to a decrease in the valuation of non-dollar assets within China's reserves, estimated to be around $40 billion[1] Economic and Market Conditions - Despite a recent depreciation of the RMB against the USD, the CFETS index indicates a stable trend in the RMB exchange rate, suggesting no immediate need for intervention from the central bank[2] - China's foreign reserves are currently at a moderately sufficient level of approximately $3 trillion, expected to remain stable in the near term due to anticipated Fed rate cuts and limited upside for the dollar index[2] - Strong export performance and new growth drivers in cross-border e-commerce are contributing to the stability of foreign reserves[2] Gold Reserves - China's official gold reserves have remained unchanged since May, currently at 72.8 million ounces, as the central bank adjusts its purchasing pace to manage costs amid high gold prices[3] - The central bank is unlikely to resume significant gold purchases in the short term, as gold prices are expected to remain above $2,000 per ounce[3] - Future gold accumulation by the central bank is still a strategic direction aimed at optimizing international reserve structure and promoting RMB internationalization[3]

Economic Policies - Trump's economic policies include significant tax cuts, increased tariffs, and reduced regulations, which are expected to face less resistance due to Republican control of both houses of Congress[2][4] - Proposed tax cuts aim to permanently reduce personal and estate taxes, benefiting the top 95%-99% income households and low-income earners, potentially increasing disposable income and stimulating consumption[2][4] - Corporate tax rates may be lowered from 21% to 20% or 15%, alongside accelerated capital expenditure depreciation, which could enhance cash flow for domestic companies and encourage investment[2][4] Inflation and Interest Rates - Trump's policies may elevate inflation risks, leading to prolonged high interest rates, which could increase downward pressure on the U.S. economy[4][6] - The combination of tax cuts and tariffs is projected to push inflation up, with estimates suggesting a 0.35 percentage point increase in CPI inflation from deporting 1.3 million immigrants[6][8] - The U.S. government debt is expected to rise significantly, with projections indicating an increase of $7.75 trillion over the next decade due to Trump's fiscal policies[8][9] Trade and Employment - Proposed tariffs include a 10% baseline tariff on imported goods and a 60% tariff on Chinese products, which could generate an additional $524 billion in annual revenue but may reduce long-term GDP growth by 0.8% and eliminate approximately 684,000 jobs[5][6] - The trade policies may negatively impact employment growth and industrial competitiveness, as previous tariffs have shown detrimental effects[5][6] Currency and Global Impact - Trump's victory is expected to strengthen the U.S. dollar in the short term due to fiscal expansion and higher bond yields, but long-term prospects for the dollar may weaken due to rising debt levels and global de-dollarization trends[10][12] - The potential for increased tariffs on Chinese goods could lead to depreciation pressures on the Chinese yuan, impacting China's exports and economic growth, with estimates suggesting a 0.85% reduction in China's GDP by 2025 if tariffs are implemented[13][14]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy Changes - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range from 4.75%-5.0% to 4.5%-4.75%, a decrease of 25 basis points[1] - The decision reflects a continuation of the trend of declining inflation and employment data over the past six months, despite recent data rebounds[2] - The removal of the statement regarding "gaining confidence in combating inflation" suggests an openness to pausing rate cuts in December[3] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Trends - The CPI data indicates that inflation has been declining for over six months, with core inflation driven down by falling rent prices[2] - The October non-farm payroll data showed significant weakness, but the overall employment market continues to exhibit a moderate cooling trend[2] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by over 60 basis points since September 19, necessitating further rate cuts to manage rising market rates[4] Group 3: Future Projections - The likelihood of another 25 basis point rate cut in December is high, as economic conditions are expected to remain stable[5] - The neutral interest rate is projected at 2.9%, indicating that the current policy rate is significantly above this level, allowing room for further cuts[6] - Post-Trump's inauguration in January, potential policy changes may slow the pace of future rate cuts due to increased inflationary pressures[7] Group 4: Market Implications - Short-term risks for U.S. Treasury yields are upward, driven by concerns over inflation and fiscal policies under Trump[8] - The dollar is expected to remain strong in the short term due to relative economic resilience compared to other developed economies[9] - The global financial environment is anticipated to remain accommodative through 2025, supporting domestic monetary policy adjustments[10]

Group 1: Export Performance - In October 2024, exports increased by 12.7% year-on-year in USD terms, significantly up from 2.4% in September[1] - The cumulative export growth from January to October 2024 reached 5.1%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points compared to the previous value[2] - The strong export growth was driven by the easing of short-term disturbances, a low base from the previous year, and robust new trade dynamics, particularly in cross-border e-commerce which grew by 15.2% year-on-year[3] Group 2: Import Trends - October 2024 imports decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, a decline from a 0.3% increase in September, primarily due to a high base effect from the previous year[4] - The cumulative import growth from January to October 2024 was negatively impacted by high base comparisons, with October's month-on-month import value showing a stronger performance than seasonal averages[5] - Key commodities like crude oil and iron ore saw significant year-on-year declines in import value, with crude oil imports dropping by 24.9% and iron ore by 14.5%[6] Group 3: Future Outlook - The export growth is expected to slow down to single digits in November 2024 due to a high base effect from the previous year and a potential slowdown in external demand[7] - The implementation of a series of incremental policies is anticipated to gradually improve import demand, with November imports expected to rebound to a growth rate of 2%-3%[8] - The potential impact of a new round of trade tensions with the U.S. could lead to a significant decline in export growth, estimated to drop by 6 to 8 percentage points if tariffs are increased[9]