根据证券期货投资者适当性管理办法本次电话会议仅服务于国联证券研究所白名单客户本次会议在任何情形下都不构成对会议参加者的投资建议相关人员应自主作出投资决策并自行承担投资风险 国联证券不对任何人因使用会议内容而引致的任何损失承担任何责任未经国联证券事先书面许可任何机构或个人不得以任何形式复制、刊载、转载、转发、引用本次会议内容否则由此造成的一切后果及法律责任由该机构或个人承担本公司保留追究其法律责任的权利 好的各位投资者大家下午好我是国联策略联系首席财经师邓永林欢迎各位投资者参加我们今天下午的国联研究全行业的这个会议解读的一个地方会 那因为最近一段时间的话呢整个政策的这个定调的转变还是非常明显的那么我们也能看到就是市场上有不管是A股港股还是这个美股的中概股啊就是所有中国的和中国资产的这个全球性这种上涨这个非常亮眼而且这个显然从整个投资者这个情绪还是相对比较亢奋的啊所以也是基于这样的一个一个一个比较关键的这么个时点啊所以我们这次的话是 总量联合我们国内研究基本上全行业的这个阵容为大家去这个分享跟解读一下我们对于这次这个行情的一个理解以及后面一个结构性机会这个这个这个这个这个观点呃那首先的话呢还是我们特别对大家汇报一 ...

政治局会议学习：重视经济政策加码！- 17 大行业联合解读 240926 摘要 • 本次政治局会议罕见地在 9 月讨论了经济问题，并在稳增长政策上的表述 超预期，显示出当前经济问题是政策关注的重点。会议提出要全面客观冷 静看待当前的经济形势，正视困难，坚定决心，切实增强做好这些工作的 责任感和紧迫感。 • 会议强调要加强逆周期调节力度，保证必要的财政支出，并提出降低存款 准备金率、实施有力度的降息。此外，会议还提出要促进房地产市场止跌 回稳，严控商品房建设增量，优化存量，提高质量，加大白名单项目贷款 投放力度，以及盘活存量闲置土地。 • 会议增加了"努力提振资本市场"的表述，并支持上市公司并购重组及公 募基金改革。这意味着未来可能会有更多利好政策出台，以提升投资者信 心，通过股市带动居民财富效应，从而进一步刺激消费与投资。 • 食品饮料行业近期表现强劲，其中一个重要原因是宏观经济预期改善带来 的信心提振。该板块涨幅达到 8.8%，这是很久未见的大涨幅。这主要归 因于政策加码和行业格局稳定。 • 食品饮料行业受益于整体宏观环境改善，其估值修复成为主要收益方向。 但需要持续关注后续相关政策落实情况，以判断未来走势 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a generally cautious outlook for the chemical industry, with a focus on potential recovery in the second half of 2024, while systemic risks remain controllable [2][42]. Core Insights - In the first half of 2024, the chemical industry experienced a slight increase in product price indices driven by rising crude oil prices, although overall demand remained weak [2][3]. - The financial performance of various segments within the chemical industry showed divergence, with some sectors reporting losses while others, like chemical fiber manufacturing, saw significant profit increases [3][14]. - The report highlights a contraction in capital expenditure due to low industry sentiment, alongside an increase in debt burdens for chemical companies [2][22]. - The overall financing environment is described as relatively loose, which is beneficial for companies in the sector [2][42]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance Overview - In the first half of 2024, crude oil processing volumes slightly decreased, while other chemical product outputs increased year-on-year [3][4]. - The chemical industry’s comprehensive prosperity index fluctuated, reflecting the impact of high energy prices and weak demand [3][5]. - Revenue and profit trends varied significantly across different sectors, with the petroleum and coal industries reporting losses, while chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing saw revenue growth of 5.4% [3][4]. Price Trends - The chemical product price index (CCPI) rose by 2.63% by the end of June 2024 compared to the beginning of the year, influenced by rising crude oil prices [5][8]. - Significant price increases were noted for products like butadiene (up 52.25%) and pure benzene (up 29.53%), while prices for soda ash fell by over 20% due to oversupply [8][10]. Policy Developments - Key policies in the first half of 2024 focused on green transformation and innovation in the chemical industry, aiming to enhance safety and environmental standards [12][13]. - The "Guiding Opinions on Accelerating the Green Development of Manufacturing" emphasizes the need for low-carbon optimization in traditional industries [12][13]. Financial Performance - The sample companies in the chemical sector reported a 2.11% decline in revenue year-on-year, with around 20% of companies experiencing losses [14][15]. - Operating profit increased by 2.42%, driven by specific sectors like basic chemicals, which saw a 22.24% rise in profits [14][15]. - Cash flow from operating activities showed a modest increase of 1.33%, but external financing needs remained due to reduced investment expenditures [19][22]. Debt Market Overview - The chemical industry saw a net financing state in the first half of 2024, with a total issuance of 751.82 billion yuan in credit bonds, a decrease from the previous year [24][25]. - The majority of bond issuances were from AAA-rated companies, while the issuance from AA-rated companies significantly declined [33][36]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates a potential recovery in the chemical industry in the latter half of 2024, supported by macroeconomic policies aimed at stimulating demand [42][48]. - Long-term trends indicate a shift towards high-quality development, focusing on safety, energy efficiency, and environmentally friendly products [42][48].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a stable credit risk outlook for the coal industry in the second half of 2024, indicating a controlled risk environment for the sector [31]. Core Insights - The coal industry is experiencing a slowdown in production growth due to stringent safety inspections, with domestic coal output expected to remain stable with slight increases throughout 2024 [2][3]. - Coal prices are anticipated to stabilize as demand gradually recovers, despite a decline in profitability compared to the previous year [2][31]. - The report highlights a significant increase in bond issuance by coal companies, driven by rising financing needs amid declining profit margins [23][24]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Operation in H1 2024 - Domestic coal production growth has slowed, with a total output of 2.266 billion tons in the first half of 2024, a decrease of 1.52% year-on-year [4][8]. - Coal imports have increased significantly, with a total of 250 million tons imported, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.45% [9]. 2. Supply Dynamics - The coal supply is concentrated in the Shanxi, Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang regions, which account for approximately 70% of the national coal reserves [6][7]. - The government is focused on ensuring stable energy supply and reasonable pricing, with plans to release advanced coal production capacity [4][20]. 3. Demand Analysis - The demand for coal from downstream industries, particularly steel and construction, has weakened, with significant declines in production volumes [12]. - The power generation sector has maintained stable demand, with a total thermal power generation of 3.01 trillion kWh, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.66% [10]. 4. Price Trends - Coal prices have shown volatility, with significant fluctuations observed in the first half of 2024, leading to a decrease in prices for various coal types [14]. - As of June 2024, the prices for thermal coal, coking coal, and anthracite were 863 RMB/ton, 1848 RMB/ton, and 1185 RMB/ton, respectively, indicating declines of 7.60%, 17.06%, and increases of 8.98% compared to the end of 2023 [14]. 5. Financial Performance - The coal industry reported a total profit of 316.86 billion RMB in the first half of 2024, a decrease of 24.80% year-on-year due to falling coal prices [16]. - The financial metrics indicate a slight increase in debt levels as companies seek to manage cash flow amid declining profitability [25]. 6. Policy Developments - The government has reinstated import tariffs on coal, signaling a stabilization in the domestic coal market [19]. - Policies aimed at enhancing coal mine safety and promoting intelligent production methods are being implemented to improve operational efficiency and safety standards [21][22]. 7. Bond Market Overview - The coal sector has seen a notable increase in bond issuance, totaling 207.73 billion RMB in the first half of 2024, with a focus on high-rated issuers [24]. - The credit ratings of coal companies remain predominantly high, with a majority rated AA+ and above, indicating a stable credit environment [23][27].

Investment Rating - The overall credit risk of the steel industry is considered controllable, with a stable outlook for the industry [32][21][29]. Core Viewpoints - The steel industry is experiencing a weak supply and demand situation, with continued downward pressure on steel prices and further declines in profitability [32][21]. - The demand for steel is significantly impacted by the downturn in the real estate sector, although there are stable increases in demand from infrastructure, shipbuilding, and new energy sectors [7][16]. - The bond market for steel companies is showing a recovery, with a significant increase in bond issuance and a narrowing of credit spreads, indicating a favorable financing environment for high-credit-rated enterprises [21][22][29]. Industry Operation Status - In the first eight months of 2024, domestic crude steel production decreased by 4.3% year-on-year, while steel exports increased by 18.92% to 70.72 million tons [3][5]. - The steel industry’s operating income fell by 4.7% year-on-year, with a total profit of -16.97 billion yuan, indicating a significant decline in industry efficiency [9]. - The asset-liability ratio of the industry is on the rise, reflecting increased financial pressure on steel enterprises [9][21]. Upstream and Downstream Situation - The demand for steel is further differentiated, with construction and manufacturing sectors showing varying levels of demand due to the real estate investment decline [11][16]. - Iron ore and coke prices have been fluctuating downwards, influenced by weak downstream demand and high inventory levels [11][14]. - Fixed asset investment in the first eight months of 2024 grew by 3.4%, with infrastructure investment increasing by 7.87% and manufacturing investment by 9.10%, while real estate investment fell by 9.80% [16]. Industry Policies - The steel industry is undergoing a transformation towards digitalization and energy conservation, with policies aimed at enhancing production efficiency and reducing carbon emissions [19][20]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has set targets for digital transformation and energy efficiency improvements by 2026 and 2027, respectively [19][20]. Bond Market Performance - In the first half of 2024, 81 bonds were issued by steel companies, totaling 104.3 billion yuan, marking a significant increase compared to the previous year [22][24]. - The majority of bond issuers are high-credit-rated enterprises, with 15 out of 17 issuers rated AAA [24][26]. - The total outstanding bonds for steel companies reached 329.8 billion yuan by the end of June 2024, reflecting a 14.25% increase from the end of 2023 [29]. Credit Risk Outlook - The steel industry is expected to maintain a weak supply and demand balance, with limited improvements in operational performance anticipated [32]. - Despite the overall controllable credit risk, there is a need to monitor companies with deteriorating profitability and high debt burdens [32].

Investment Rating - The report indicates that the overall credit risk in the non-ferrous metals industry is controllable, with a high credit rating for issuers, primarily AAA rated [1][38]. Core Viewpoints - The non-ferrous metals industry showed positive performance in the first half of 2024, with rising prices for gold, copper, aluminum, and lead-zinc products, supported by favorable macroeconomic conditions and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][3][5]. - The industry is expected to benefit from ongoing "stability growth" policies and the Fed's easing cycle, which may provide support for metal prices [1][38]. - The report emphasizes the importance of resource endowment advantages and comprehensive cost control capabilities for companies in the non-ferrous metals sector [1][38]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance Overview - In the first half of 2024, the non-ferrous metals industry experienced a continuous recovery in the price index, with significant increases in prices for key metals due to demand recovery and cost support [3][5]. - The comprehensive prosperity index for the non-ferrous metals industry rose from 25.1 in December 2023 to 28.8 by June 2024 [3]. 2. Price Trends - Gold prices increased by 12.74% to $2,331 per ounce by the end of June 2024, while copper prices rose by 12.41% to $9,477 per ton [5]. - Other metals such as aluminum and zinc also saw price increases, with aluminum up 6.38% and zinc up 11.99% [5]. 3. Supply and Demand Analysis - The global refined copper market showed a significant surplus in the first half of 2024, with production outpacing demand, leading to an excess of 490,000 tons [14]. - China's refined copper production reached 6.672 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.90% [9][14]. 4. Financial Performance of Companies - Financial indicators for non-ferrous metal companies showed no significant changes compared to the previous year, with overall asset and income growth [25][26]. - The average operating income for sample companies increased slightly, while cash flow from operating activities decreased significantly [26]. 5. Policy and Regulatory Environment - The report highlights the government's focus on green development in the non-ferrous metals industry, with new policies aimed at energy conservation and carbon reduction [29][30]. - The emphasis on sustainable resource development is expected to drive the industry's transition towards higher quality and greener practices [30]. 6. Bond Market Activity - In the first half of 2024, the non-ferrous metals industry saw a significant increase in bond issuance, with a total of 116 bonds issued amounting to 115.431 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 78.46% [32][36]. - The majority of issuers maintained high credit ratings, with AAA rated companies accounting for 76.87% of the total issuance [32].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a low-level operation of the domestic real estate market in the first half of 2024, with a focus on inventory reduction as a key priority for the industry [2][3] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that despite the continuous release of loose policies, the sales decline has narrowed, but inventory reduction pressure remains significant, and the recovery of sales is crucial for the survival of most real estate companies [2][4] - The report highlights that the central and local governments have adopted a "de-inventory" policy as a guiding principle, with expectations for continued implementation in the second half of 2024 [3][4] Policy Summary - The report outlines a series of policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market, including lowering down payment ratios and interest rates for housing loans, as well as various incentives for home purchases [4][5][6] - It notes that the "924 package policy" introduced in September 2024 includes measures to lower existing mortgage rates and unify down payment ratios for first and second homes [7][8] Financing Environment - The report discusses the ongoing challenges in the financing environment for real estate companies, with a focus on the need for improved sales performance to enhance liquidity [11][19] - It mentions that the overall financing environment remains loose, but the benefits of favorable policies are limited to a small group of companies, particularly those with weaker qualifications [11][19] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report indicates that the real estate sales market continues to decline, with a significant drop in sales area and value in the first half of 2024, although the rate of decline has slowed due to policy support [31][37] - It highlights that the inventory turnover period has increased, indicating ongoing challenges in inventory reduction [31][38] Market Performance - The report states that the total sales area of commercial housing in the first half of 2024 was 479 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 19.00%, while the sales value was 4.71 trillion yuan, down 25.00% [37] - It also notes that the average price of new residential properties in major cities continues to decline, reflecting a persistent downward trend in housing prices [38][40]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a structural oversupply in the lithium battery materials industry, particularly in the ternary precursor sector, leading to a cautious investment outlook for the period from 2021 to 2024 [2][32]. Core Insights - The lithium battery materials industry has experienced rapid growth driven by demand from electric vehicles and energy storage, transitioning through phases of supply shortage, tight balance, and now structural oversupply [3][5]. - The report highlights that companies with diversified product structures, high global presence, and strong financial capabilities are likely to navigate the oversupply cycle successfully [2][32]. - The report emphasizes the increasing concentration in various segments of the lithium battery industry, suggesting that leading companies will gain a competitive edge [32]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - From 2021 to 2023, the lithium battery and materials market grew rapidly due to the development of the electric vehicle and energy storage markets, with significant increases in production capacity [3][5]. - The industry has faced a transition from supply shortages to structural oversupply, particularly noted in 2024, where profitability is under pressure due to increased competition [3][12]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply-demand relationship has shifted significantly, with 2021 seeing a supply shortage, 2022 a tight balance, and 2023 a structural oversupply [13][32]. - The report notes that the average price of cathode materials has dropped significantly in 2023, with a reported decline in industry revenue [9][12]. Policy and Regulatory Environment - Domestic policies in China are aimed at curbing excessive capacity expansion, while international policies from the US and EU are imposing restrictions on Chinese lithium battery exports [18][20]. - The report outlines specific regulations such as the US Inflation Reduction Act and the EU Battery Regulation, which could impact the competitiveness of Chinese lithium battery products in global markets [19][20]. Resource Distribution - The report discusses China's reliance on imported lithium minerals and the strategic moves by companies to secure overseas resources to mitigate risks associated with supply chain disruptions [22][23]. - The increasing demand for nickel in the ternary precursor industry is highlighted, with projections indicating a significant rise in nickel requirements by 2030 [23][24]. Financing Environment - The report indicates that while financing difficulties have increased due to macroeconomic conditions, the demand for financing among lithium battery companies remains high [27][32]. - The analysis of the A-share market shows a decline in IPO numbers and valuations for lithium battery companies, reflecting a tightening financing environment [29][30].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook for the construction industry, with a focus on improving liquidity pressures for construction companies in the future [1]. Core Insights - The construction industry experienced a slowdown in output growth in the first half of 2024, with new contract amounts declining year-on-year, while the growth rate of existing contracts outpaced new contracts [4][28]. - The government continues to implement policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market, which is expected to provide support for infrastructure investment and the construction industry [1][28]. - The quality of business receivables has declined, leading to increased liquidity pressures for construction companies, particularly local state-owned enterprises [1][6][28]. - The issuance of short-term bonds by construction companies has decreased significantly, although higher-rated enterprises remain the primary issuers [1][20][28]. Industry Policy Overview - The "14th Five-Year" development plan emphasizes a shift from quantity expansion to quality improvement in the construction industry, with ongoing policy adjustments to facilitate industry transformation [2][3]. Industry Development Status - In the first half of 2024, the total output value of the construction industry reached 138,311.86 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.60%, but a decline in growth rate compared to the previous year [4][28]. - New contracts signed in the construction industry totaled 149,125.06 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.41% year-on-year, indicating weak industry growth [4][28]. - The total amount of contracts in hand reached 533,035.25 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.51%, driven by factors such as project suspensions and reduced government investment [5][28]. Financial Performance - The total operating revenue of construction companies decreased by 3.67% year-on-year, with local state-owned enterprises experiencing the largest revenue decline [6][28]. - The cash flow deficit from operating activities for construction companies expanded by 154.95% year-on-year, primarily due to declining receivables quality [13][28]. - The overall debt burden for construction companies has increased, with the asset-liability ratio rising by 1.09 percentage points compared to the previous year [10][28]. Downstream Industry Development - National fixed asset investment showed a slight year-on-year increase of 3.90% in the first half of 2024, supported by ongoing infrastructure projects [15][28]. - Real estate development investment decreased by 10.10% year-on-year, with new construction areas continuing to decline significantly [16][28]. - The government has introduced various policies to stabilize the real estate market, which are expected to positively impact the construction industry [17][28]. Bond Issuance and Interest Rate Analysis - In the second quarter of 2024, the total bond issuance by construction companies decreased year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, with a notable decline in short-term bonds [20][28]. - The average bond issuance interest rates for construction companies have shown a downward trend due to a relatively loose credit environment [24][28].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive shift in the investment rating for the real estate industry, emphasizing a transition from risk mitigation to promoting market stabilization [2][3]. Core Insights - The September Politburo meeting marks a significant policy shift towards stabilizing the real estate market, which has been in decline for three consecutive years, suggesting an improvement in the supply-demand dynamics and overall credit levels in the industry [2][3][6]. - The meeting highlighted the need for strict control over new housing supply, optimization of existing inventory, and enhancement of housing quality, indicating a reshaping of the industry landscape and the acceleration of a new development model [5][6]. - The report anticipates that the combination of supply control and demand stimulation will lead to a recovery in housing prices, benefiting both consumer confidence and economic recovery [6]. Summary by Sections Policy Statements - The Politburo meeting on September 26, 2024, emphasized the need to stabilize the real estate market, control new housing supply, optimize existing inventory, and improve quality, alongside increasing loan support for "white list" projects [4][5]. - Compared to previous meetings, the tone has shifted from risk resolution to proactive measures, indicating a more supportive policy environment for the real estate sector [3][5]. Supply-Side Analysis - The report notes that the emphasis on controlling the quantity and improving the quality of housing signifies a significant reshaping of the industry, with a cautious approach to land supply and a potential decrease in new housing starts [5][6]. - The focus on optimizing existing inventory aligns with previous discussions on supporting the acquisition of existing properties for affordable housing, suggesting a faster pace in securing such properties [5]. Demand-Side Analysis - The meeting addressed the need to respond to public concerns by promoting demand through various measures, including lowering existing mortgage rates and adjusting housing purchase restrictions, which could enhance consumer purchasing power [6]. - The anticipated adjustments in housing purchase policies, particularly in first-tier cities, could lead to a recovery in housing prices, benefiting the overall market [6]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that the combination of improved asset prices and supportive policies will enhance the financial health of real estate companies, leading to a recovery in profitability and overall credit levels in the industry [6]. - The ongoing demand for high-quality housing products and services is expected to benefit developers who can meet these evolving consumer expectations [6].