行 业 研 究 研 究 所 晨 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 分[析Ta师ble_Report] 会 观 点 精 萃 贾利军 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-80128600-8632 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-80128600-8631 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-80128600-8621 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-80128600-8630 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-80128600-8622 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号：Z0016121 电话：021-80128600-8616 邮箱： ...

投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-80128600-8631 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 刘慧峰 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-80128600-8621 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-80128600-8630 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 研 究 所 晨 会 观 点 精 贾利军 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-80128600-8632 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-80128600-8622 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号：Z0016121 电话：021-80128600-8616 邮箱：fengb@qh16 ...

投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 研 究 所 晨 会 观 点 精 [Table_Report] 分析师 贾利军 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-68757181 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-68758120 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 刘慧峰 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-68757089 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-68757827 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-68757827 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 【硅锰/硅铁】周二，硅铁、硅锰现货价格持平，上周五大品种钢材产量继续回 升，铁合金需求尚可。硅锰 6517 北方市场价格 5850-5900 元/吨， ...

投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-68757827 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号：Z0016121 电话：021-68758859 邮箱：fengb@qh168.com.cn [Table_Report] 分析师 贾利军 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-68757181 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-68758120 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 刘慧峰 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-68757089 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-68757827 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 2025年4月1日 研究所晨会观点精 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term maintain a cautious and wait - and - see attitude towards the four major stock index futures (IH/IF/IC/IM) in A - shares; maintain a cautious and wait - and - see attitude towards commodities; maintain a cautious and wait - and - see attitude towards treasury bonds. The ranking is: treasury bonds > stock indices > commodities. For crude oil, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals, maintain a cautious and long - position attitude in the short term; for black metals, maintain a cautious and wait - and - see attitude [2] Core Viewpoints - Domestically, from January to February, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.0% year - on - year, and the added value of industrial enterprises above the national scale increased by 5.9% year - on - year. The economic operation started smoothly and better than expected. However, due to the continuous escalation of US tariff policies, the RMB exchange rate has depreciated, and market sentiment at home and abroad has cooled down, resulting in a decline in domestic risk appetite [2] - Internationally, the initial value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in March was 49.8, a three - month low, but the service and composite PMIs showed an unexpected rebound, indicating strong economic resilience. However, concerns about inflation and potential stagflation have emerged, and the labor market remains in good condition. The US announced a 25% tariff on non - US - made cars, triggering opposition from many countries and escalating the global tariff war, leading to a significant increase in risk aversion and a sharp decline in global risk appetite [2] - In the short term, the domestic stock market may experience a correction due to US tariff risks and a weakening RMB exchange rate, so maintain a cautious and wait - and - see attitude towards stock indices. The bond market may experience a short - term shock rebound, so be cautious about going long. The commodity market is generally volatile and strong, with short - term cautious long - positions for crude oil, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals, and a cautious and wait - and - see attitude for black metals [2] Summary by Directory 1. Last Week's Important News and Events - The US announced tariffs on countries trading with Venezuela and plans to impose additional tariffs on cars, wood, and chips. Many countries, including Germany, Canada, and Japan, opposed the US's 25% tariff on imported cars and may take countermeasures [3][4][5] - Some Fed officials expressed their views on interest rates and inflation. For example, Bostic expected only one interest rate cut this year, and Goolsbee warned about the impact of inflation expectations on the Fed's interest rate cut plan [3][5] - Economic data showed that the US GDP in Q4 2024 was revised upwards, but the core PCE price index was revised downwards. The US 2 - month core PCE price index rebounded, and personal spending growth was weak, raising concerns about inflation and stagflation [6] - The central bank carried out a 4500 - billion - yuan MLF operation, achieving a net investment of 630 billion yuan. Many regions introduced new real - estate policies, and the Ministry of Commerce announced measures to support consumption and international consumption center cities [8][9][11] 2. This Week's Important Events and Economic Data Reminders - A series of economic data will be released this week, including industrial production, employment, inflation, and trade data from countries such as China, the US, Japan, and the eurozone [13] 3. Global Asset Price Trends - Stock markets around the world generally declined last week, with the US stock market experiencing significant drops. Bond yields showed different trends, and commodity prices were mixed, with precious metals and non - ferrous metals showing relatively strong performance [14] 4. Domestic High - Frequency Macroeconomic Data - Upstream data includes commodity price indices, energy prices, and coal and iron ore inventories. Mid - stream data covers steel, non - ferrous metals, building materials, and chemical products. Downstream data involves real - estate sales, automobile sales, and consumer prices [15][43][71] 5. Domestic and Foreign Liquidity - Globally, US Treasury yields showed certain fluctuations. Domestically, the central bank's open - market operations and interest rates in the inter - bank market are important indicators of liquidity [82][84] 6. Global Financial Calendar - A detailed schedule of economic data releases from various countries and regions from March 31 to April 4, 2025, is provided, including industrial production, employment, inflation, and trade data [102]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The domestic market sentiment has cooled down, and the stock index will experience short - term shock adjustments. The economic operation from January to February started smoothly and was better than expected, but due to the continuous escalation of US tariff policies, the RMB exchange rate has depreciated, and the domestic and foreign market sentiment has cooled down, leading to a decline in overall domestic risk appetite. The operation suggestion is to cautiously go long. [2][30][31] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Stock Market Review - The CSI 300 index closed at 3915.17 points, up 0.01% from the previous value; the SSE 50 index closed at 2679.74 points, up 0.16%; the CSI 500 index closed at 5916.03 points, down 0.94%; the CSI 1000 index closed at 6268.32 points, down 2.14%. The trading volume of the CSI 300 index decreased by 591 billion yuan compared with the previous value. The top - performing industries were medicine (1.04%), household appliances (0.68%), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (0.64%), food and beverage (0.34%), and banking (0.01%); the bottom - performing industries were construction (-2.82%), communication (-3.54%), machinery (-3.56%), national defense and military industry (-3.80%), and computer (-4.84%). The IF, IH, IC, and IM main contracts had different changes in closing prices. [1][4] 2. Capital Situation - The margin trading balance of the two markets was 1909.6 billion yuan, down 1.09 billion yuan from last week. The net capital purchases of the CSI 300, SSE 50, and CSI 500 indexes last week were -8 billion yuan, 1 billion yuan, and -21.1 billion yuan respectively. [6] 3. Futures Index Review - The IF main contract closed at 3884.0 points, up 0.03% from the previous value; the IH main contract closed at 2677.6 points, down 0.22%; the IC main contract closed at 5869.6 points, down 0.74%; the IM main contract closed at 6078.4 points, down 1.60%. The trading volumes of IF, IH, and IC decreased compared with the previous value, while that of IM increased. [12] 4. Position Capital Situation - The IF position amount was 79.07 billion yuan, down 2.29 billion yuan from last week; the IH position amount was 18.99 billion yuan, down 1.5 billion yuan; the IC position amount was 59.36 billion yuan, down 2 billion yuan; the IM position amount was 96.93 billion yuan, up 0.3 billion yuan. The position amounts of different contract periods of IF, IH, IC, and IM are also provided. [19] 5. Spread Situation - In terms of basis, the basis of the current - month contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM were -6.37 points, 0.86 points, -46.43 points, and -55.72 points respectively. In terms of spreads, different contract spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM are given. In terms of ratios, the ratios of IF and IH, IC and IH, IM and IH for different contract periods are provided. [24] 6. Summary and Outlook - The CSI 300 index closed at 3915.17 points, up 0.01% from the previous value, and the trading volume decreased. The margin trading balance of the two markets was 1909.6 billion yuan. The performance of different industries is similar to the previous summary. The economic situation from January to February was good, but due to external factors, the domestic risk appetite has cooled down. The operation suggestion is to cautiously go long. [30][31]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The precious metals market has broken through historical highs due to the resonance of long - term credit logic and safe - haven demand. The strengthening of the "stagflation" expectation in the US is the core driving force. The long - term support for gold comes from the suppression of real interest rates under the stagflation logic and the global de - dollarization trend, while silver is dragged down by its industrial attributes but has a long - term positive outlook [4]. - The market continues to price in the spiral risk of "stubborn inflation - economic slowdown", indicating that the US dollar will remain under short - term pressure. The downward trend of real interest rates under economic slowdown pressure provides support for precious metals [2]. - The global silver market is expected to have a shortage of 149 million ounces in 2025. The continuous growth of demand and limited supply support the long - term upward trend of silver prices [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - This week, precious metals broke through historical highs. The "stagflation" expectation in the US was strengthened, with the core PCE in February rising to 2.8% year - on - year, a new high since December 2024. Geopolitical risks and policy uncertainties drove funds into safe - haven assets [4]. 2. Currency and Financial Attributes - **US Dollar Index**: It showed a volatile decline this week, affected by stagflation concerns and policy expectations. The continuous decline of the US consumer confidence index, Trump's auto tariffs, weak initial jobless claims data, and the unexpected core PCE on Friday intensified stagflation panic, causing the US dollar index to fall significantly. The US dollar is expected to remain under short - term pressure [2][14]. - **Interest Rate Policy**: The Fed's interest rate policy shows the characteristics of "hawk - dove game in the stagflation dilemma". The March FOMC meeting lowered the 2025 GDP forecast and raised the core PCE forecast, and the dot - plot showed a weakening of the interest - rate cut expectation. The market still expects three interest - rate cuts in 2025, with a 64.9% probability of a cut in June and a 75% probability in September. If tariffs push up inflation in April, hawkish expectations may be strengthened again, but the downward trend of real interest rates supports precious metals [17]. - **US Treasury Bonds**: The 1 - year Treasury bond yield remained unchanged at 4.04%, the 10 - year yield rose 2 basis points to 4.27%, and the 10 - year real yield fell 2 basis points to 1.90%. The yield spread between the 10 - year and 2 - year Treasury bonds widened [19]. 3. Economic Data - **PMI**: The US manufacturing PMI was 50.3 in February, showing continuous expansion but with new orders and production indicators weakening. The service PMI was 53.5, indicating accelerating expansion. The composite PMI was 51.6, a new low since April 2024 [27][28][29]. - **Employment**: In February, the non - farm payrolls increased by 151,000, slightly lower than expected, and the unemployment rate rose from 4.0% to 4.1%. The initial jobless claims in the week ending March 22 were 224,000 [30]. - **Inflation**: In February, the US CPI and PPI were both lower than expected. The CPI rose 2.8% year - on - year, and the PPI rose 3.2% year - on - year. Traders increased their bets on Fed interest - rate cuts [36]. 4. Supply and Demand - **Gold**: The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for four consecutive months. It is expected that central banks' gold - buying will continue to drive up gold prices, and funds from central banks are expected to remain in net inflow [43]. - **Silver**: The global silver market is expected to have a shortage of 149 million ounces in 2025. The growth of demand in new energy, photovoltaic, and electronics fields and limited supply support the long - term upward trend of silver prices [3]. 5. Market Indicators - **ETF and CFTC Positions**: As of the week ending March 28, 2025, the gold SPDR持仓量 increased by 0.15% to 931.94, and the silver SLV持仓量 increased by 220.78 tons to 13,944.69 tons. The gold CFTC net long positions decreased by 8,136 contracts to 249,796 contracts, and the silver net long positions increased by 1,348 contracts to 60,950 contracts [45]. - **Inventory**: As of the week ending March 28, 2025, the SHFE gold warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 15,675 kilograms, and the silver warehouse receipts decreased by 46,710 kilograms to 1,155,203 kilograms. The Comex gold inventory increased by 1,456,469.54 ounces to 43,347,625.92 ounces, and the silver inventory increased by 14,333,197.63 ounces to 472,420,049.90 ounces [48]. - **Trading Volume**: As of the week ending March 28, 2025, the average trading volume of gold futures increased by 44.37% to 282,652.60 kilograms, and that of silver futures increased by 24.16% to 589,061.80 kilograms [51]. - **Gold - Silver Ratio**: As of the week ending March 28, 2025, the gold - silver ratio declined slightly, with the Shanghai gold - silver ratio at 84.92 and the New York gold - silver ratio at 89.55. Shorting the gold - silver ratio lacks logical support currently, but if it drops significantly in the short term, going long can be considered [61]. 6. Operation Suggestions - **Gold**: Maintain a long - term bullish view. If there is a certain degree of correction, investors can gradually build long - term positions [2]. - **Silver**: Although it has been dragged down by industrial attributes recently, the long - term positive logic remains unchanged. Investors are advised to operate with reference to gold, use collar structures to hedge risks if necessary, and build long - term long positions in batches after a sufficient correction [3].

上升驱动不足，价格震荡偏弱 东海甲醇聚烯烃周度策略 东海期货研究所能化策略组 2025-3-31 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可[2011]1771号 分析师： 冯冰 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号：Z0016121 电话：021-68758859 邮箱：fengbf@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号：F3089928 投资咨询证号： Z0018740 电话：021-68757827 邮箱：wangyl@qh168.com.cn 联系人： 甲醇：震荡修复 | 国产供应 | 国内甲醇装置产能利用率84.06%，环比-1.55%。四川泸天化40、内蒙古黑猫30、陕西长武 | | --- | --- | | | 60、鹤壁煤化60、内蒙古久泰100装置计划重启，内蒙古新奥60装置计划检修，下周甲醇产 | | | 量增加。 | | 进口 | 国际甲醇装置开工66.43%，伊朗和非伊开工均有增加。伊朗地区开工增至五成附近，目 | | | 前多数装置普遍重启恢复。3月21日至3月27日，总进口量在15万吨，下周期到港预计在 | | | 13.2万吨，进口依然较少。 | | 需求 | 受华北MTO装 ...

警惕经济忧虑风险加剧，原料偏紧限制跌幅 东海期货沪锡周度分析 有色及新能源策略组 2025-3-31 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可[2011]1771号 彭亚勇 分析师： 从业资格证号：F03142221 投资咨询证号：Z0021750 电话：021-68758820 邮箱：pengyy@qy.qh168.com.cn 观点总结 | 宏观 | 美国、英国和日本制造业PMI不及预期，边际走弱，虽然欧元区制造业PMI高于预期，但持续性存疑， 全球制造业PMI难言持续回升。随着"对等关税"日期临近，经济增长担忧回升。下周重点关注美国非 农数据。 | | --- | --- | | 供应 | 缅甸遭受强震，由于缅甸锡矿的重要地位，锡价拉升，但佤邦尚未全面复产，需要一定周期筹备，短期内 更可能略微影响道路运输，鉴于佤邦距离震中较远，预计影响不大，刚果金战事持续，中短期矿端供应偏 | | | 紧，再生锡废料供应制约依旧明显，云南江西两地炼厂开工率回落4.13%至57.37%，锡锭进口窗口仍处于 | | | 关闭状态。 | | 需求 | 需求方面，关注AI概念、电子产品消费政策对实际需求带来的影响；1、2月国内集成电路产量和 ...

投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 [Table_Report] 分析师 贾利军 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-68757181 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-68758120 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 刘慧峰 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-68757089 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-68757827 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-68757827 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号：Z0016121 电话：021-68758859 邮箱：fengb@qh168.com.cn 2025年3月31日 研究所晨会观点 ...