东 海 研 究 宏 观 金 融 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 HTTP://WWW.QH168.COM.CN 1 / 16 请务必仔细阅读正文后免责申明 [table_main] 周 报 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号： Z0018827 电话：021-80128600-8631 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 2025年4月14日 美国关税政策有[所Ta放b松le，_T全it球l风e]险偏好大幅升温 ——宏观策略周报 分析师： 投资要点： 宏 观 国内方面：经济方面，3月份，我国制造业PMI、非制造业PMI和综合PMI分别为50.5%、50.8% 和51.4%，比上月上升0.3、0.4和0.3个百分点，均连续两个月上升；我国经济回升 苗头 更为明显。虽然4月2日美国对中国商品加征34%的对等的关税，中国对美国商品加征 34% 的关税进行反制，此后中美之间的关税持续升级，导致国内风险资产波动加剧；但是但是 国内一方面通过增持ETF和相关股票、上市公司股票回购增持的方式稳定市场；另一方面， 国家将根据形势需要及时推出新的增量政策，短期对国内市场风险偏好 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report suggests that the short - term tin price will rebound. The reasons include the end of mutual tariff increases between China and the US, the US delaying the implementation of reciprocal tariffs for 90 days, which may stimulate market sentiment. The Fed's inflation concerns and potential domestic stimulus policies also boost market sentiment. Additionally, the decline in smelter开工率 and the decrease in inventory contribute to the short - term price rebound [2][56]. Summary by Directory 1. When - week Macro Data/Events - On April 14 (Monday, 23:00), the US March New York Fed 1 - year inflation expectation will be released. - On April 15 (Tuesday, 17:00), Germany and the Eurozone's April ZEW economic sentiment index and economic current situation index will be announced, and at 20:30, the US April New York Fed manufacturing index will be released. - On April 16 (Wednesday, 10:00 and 20:30), domestic first - quarter economic data and the US March retail data will be released, and at 21:15, the US March industrial output and capacity utilization will be announced. - On April 17 (Thursday, 01:15 and 20:15), Fed Chairman Powell will speak at the Chicago Economic Club, and the European Central Bank will announce its interest rate decision. At 20:30, the US March new housing starts, building permits, and April Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index will be released. - On April 18 (Friday, 07:30), Japan's March inflation data will be released [4]. 2. Tin Concentrate: Attention to Wabang Resumption News - From April 7 - 11, the processing fee of 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan remained at 12,700 yuan/ton, and that of 60% tin concentrate in Jiangxi and Hunan remained at 8,700 yuan/ton. - The total tin concentrate imports in January and February were 18,587 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 50%. The quantity from Myanmar was 4,910 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 81%, while imports from Australia increased to 3,840 tons from 1,930 tons in the same period last year [6]. 3. Refined Tin: Smelter Operating Rate Declines, Import Window Remains Closed - From April 7 - 11, the combined operating rate of smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi was 56.75%, a 0.21% decrease from the previous week and a 6.5% decrease from the high in the week of March 7. - The tin ingot imports in January and February were 4,203 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.6%. From April 7 - 11, the import profit and loss fluctuated between - 13,243 and - 6,535 yuan, and the import window remained closed. Indonesia's refined tin exports in February were 3,927 tons, a 150% increase from January [9][10]. 4. Tin Solder: Attention to the Impact of AI and Policies on Consumption - In January, affected by the Spring Festival holiday, the solder operating rate dropped to 53.26%. In February, it is expected to rebound to 70.55%. - As of February 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of global semiconductor sales was 17.1%. On April 11, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index reached 3,991 points. - From January to February, China's semiconductor production was 76.72 billion pieces, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%, and the export of integrated circuits was 47.329 billion, a year - on - year increase of 20.1%. - In January and February, the total mobile phone production was 217 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 6.1%; the computer production was 47 million units, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%; the optoelectronic device production was 266.1 billion pieces, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. - From January to February, the domestic photovoltaic cell production was 87.36 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%. The export volumes of photovoltaic modules in January and February were 958 million and 713 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 40% and 18%. As of April 11, the domestic photovoltaic glass operating rate was 69.23%, a 0.92% increase from the previous week, and the inventory turnover days of photovoltaic glass enterprises were 25.95 days, a 0.42% decrease from the previous week. - As of April 11, the weekly PVC operating rate was 76.67%, a 3.35% decrease from the previous week. The weekly profit of the ethylene method was - 628 yuan/ton, and that of the calcium carbide method was - 781 yuan/ton. As of April 6, the number of real - estate transactions in 30 cities was 16,788 units, a week - on - week increase and roughly the same as the previous year. From January to February, the cumulative real - estate construction area was 6,059.72 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.1%, and the cumulative real - estate completion area was 87.64 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 15.6% [23][24][30][37]. 5. Inventory: Weekly Social Inventory Decreases - From April 4 to April 11, the tin ingot social inventory decreased by 342 tons to 11,662 tons, the SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 310 tons to 9,818 tons, and the LME inventory increased by 150 tons to 3,140 tons [46]. 6. Price: Attention to Tariff Negotiation Progress, Short - term Rebound - From April 7 - 14, the weighted position of Shanghai tin decreased from 90,740 lots to 68,291 lots as the tin price declined. Considering the end of mutual tariff increases between China and the US, potential domestic stimulus policies, the decline in smelter operating rate, and the decrease in inventory, the short - term tin price will rebound [54][56].

贸易局势持续升级，贵金属板块强势上行 东海贵金属周度策略 东海期货研究所宏观策略组 2025-04-14 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可[2011]1771号 明道雨 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-80128600-8631 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 联系人： 郭泽洋 从业资格证号：F03136719 电话：021-80128600-8618 邮箱：guozy@qh168.com.cn 分析师： 黄金：观点总结&操作建议 | | 本周美元指数持续承压，全周呈现震荡走弱态势。特朗普政府反复无常的关税政 策严重冲击市场信心，投资者对美元作为传统避险货币的信任度下降。尽管美国 | | --- | --- | | 货币属性 | 财长重申强势美元政策立场，但关税博弈引发的贸易摩擦担忧持续发酵，美国3月 | | | CPI意外回落巩固鹰派预期，4月消费者信心指数恶化叠加12个月通胀预期飙升继 | | | 续升温滞胀预期，美元持续承压跌破100关口. | | | 当前市场对美联储降息的押注与官方政策信号呈现显著分歧，CME数据显示交易员 | | 金融属性 | ...

市场悲观预期有所缓解，钢材市场延续区间震荡 东海黑色金属周度策略 东海期货研究所黑色策略组 2025-04-14 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可[2011]1771号 刘慧峰 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-68757089 邮箱：liuhf@qh168.com.cn 联系人： 武冰心 从业资格证号：F03118003 电话：021-68757089 邮箱：wubx@qh168.com.cn 分析师： 黑色策略 | 品种 | 钢材 | 铁矿石 | | --- | --- | --- | | 观点 | 区间震荡 | 区间震荡 | | 逻辑 | 本周钢材现实需求继续好转，但增幅已经明显放 缓，且部分品种需求环比已经开始出现回落。钢 | 本周全球铁矿石发运及到港量均有所回落，但考虑到3月 续继续上涨空间有限。铁矿石港口库存仍在小幅去化之 反弹，但中期下行趋势不变。 | | | | 下旬以来，外矿发货量有两周小幅回升，下周到港量数 | | | | 据可能会有所改善。铁水产量仍处于高位，但鉴于钢材 | | | 材市场目前处于淡旺季切换的过程中，后期需求 | 需求淡旺季的切换，铁 ...

东 海 研 究 宏 观 金 融 周 报 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 2025年4月14日 [Table_Title] 国内政策支持力度加大，股指短期反弹 ——股指期货周报 明道雨 股 指 期 货 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-80128600-8631 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 分析师 投资要点： 行情走势：上周沪深 300 指数收于 3750.52 点，较前值下跌 2.87%；累计成交 21544 亿元，日均成交 4309 亿元，较前值增加 1868 亿元。两市融资融券余额 为 17971 亿元。表现较好的前五名行业分别是农林牧渔(3.18%)、商贸零售 (1.19%)、国防军工(0.88%)、消费者服务(0.74%)、食品饮料(0.20%)；表现较 差的前五名行业分别是钢铁(-6.43%)、机械(-6.67%)、传媒(-6.88%)、通信 (-7.48%)、电力设备及新能源(-7.76%)。 期现基差行情：IF、IH、IC、IM 当月合约基差分别为-18.32 点、-10.58 点、 -25.52 点、-27.1 ...

行 业 研 究 研 究 所 晨 会 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-80128600-8622 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 观 点 精 萃 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-80128600-8632 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-80128600-8631 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-80128600-8621 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-80128600-8630 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号：Z0016121 电话：021-80128600-8616 邮箱：fengb@qh168.com.cn 2025年4月14日 研究所晨会观点精 ...

行 业 研 究 研 究 所 晨 会 观 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 分[析Ta师ble_Report] 点 精 萃 贾利军 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-80128600-8632 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-80128600-8631 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 刘慧峰 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-80128600-8621 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-80128600-8630 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-80128600-8622 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号：Z0016121 电话：021 ...

行 业 研 究 研 究 所 晨 会 观 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 分[析Ta师ble_Report] 点 精 萃 贾利军 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-80128600-8632 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-80128600-8631 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 刘慧峰 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-80128600-8621 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-80128600-8630 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-80128600-8622 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号：Z0016121 电话：021-80 ...

行 业 研 究 研 究 所 晨 会 观 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 分[析Ta师ble_Report] 点 精 萃 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-80128600-8632 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-80128600-8631 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 刘慧峰 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-80128600-8621 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-80128600-8630 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-80128600-8622 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号：Z0016121 电话：021-801 ...

行 业 研 究 研 究 所 晨 会 观 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 分[析Ta师ble_Report] 贾利军 点 精 萃 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-80128600-8632 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-80128600-8631 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 刘慧峰 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-80128600-8621 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-80128600-8630 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-80128600-8622 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号：Z0016121 电话：021 ...