周度报告一 -新能源汽车 10 月多家新势力交付创新高 欧盟反补贴关税正式生效 报告日期: 2024 年 11 月 3 日 ★ 动态跟踪 在国家报废更新补贴和地方置换补贴的支持下，"金九"汽车销 量稳定走强,"银十"车市继续升温。据乘联会发布，10月1-27 日,乘用车新能源车市场零售 94.6 万辆,同比去年 10 月同期增 长 49%,较上月同期下降 1%;全国乘用车厂商新能源批发 104.7 万辆，同比去年 10 月同期增长 45%，较上月同期增长 2%。另外 据各家车企自行发布的交付数据,10月极氪、小鹏、零跑、小 米等多家车企创下新高。 上周，欧盟委员会发布了对华纯电动汽车反补贴调查终裁方案 (终版) 文件并在欧盟官方公报公示,方案宣布,在原有 10% 税率基础上,对自华进口纯电动汽车征收为期五年的额外 7.8%-35.3%的反补贴税（比亚迪 17%、吉利 18.8%、上汽集团 35.3%、特斯拉 7.8%、其他合作公司 20.7%、其他未合作公司 35.3%）。10 月 30 日零时正式生效。商务部新闻发言人答记者 问时表示,中方对裁决结果不认同、不接受,已就此在世贸组织 争端解决机制下提出诉讼。 ...

Market Analysis - The number of newly registered private fund managers has decreased, while the number of new products and average scale have increased[3] - The average scale of existing securities investment fund products has reached a new high for Q2-Q3 2024[3] - Overall data for 2024 is weaker compared to 2023, with effective improvements in Q3 2024[15] Stock Factor Analysis - The CNE5 stock factor analysis indicates a pessimistic outlook for the market, with weak market trends and potential divergences ahead[4] - The CNE6 stock factor suggests a decline in stock market returns, with insufficient profit indicators to support current stock prices[4] - Favorable strategies include low volatility, quantitative strategies, and high-leverage stock strategies[4] Futures Factor Analysis - The futures market shows increased volatility, benefiting quantitative CTA strategies on both long and short sides[5] - Clear mean reversion trends among varieties are unfavorable for discretionary CTA strategies[5] - Short-term momentum factors are declining, while long-term momentum factors are rising, favoring medium to long-term CTA strategies[5] Model Evaluation and Predictions - The mid-volatility futures strategy shows the best performance, followed by the mid-volatility index increase strategy[7] - The optimal prediction scheme indicates that "index benchmark linear prediction monthly return" accounts for 50% of the best prediction scheme[7] - The low volatility strategy is particularly favorable for options strategies[7]

Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating for the US新能源汽车 industry [1][6][39] Core Views - The US新能源汽车 industry faces significant policy uncertainty ahead of the 2024 presidential election, with potential major shifts depending on whether Biden or Trump wins [1][8][35] - Biden administration has set ambitious goals including 50% EV sales by 2030, 100% clean electricity by 2035, and net-zero emissions by 2050, supported by major legislation like IRA, CHIPS Act, and Bipartisan Infrastructure Law [9][22][29][30] - Trump's potential return could reverse many Biden-era policies, with possible impacts including reduced EV subsidies, relaxed emissions standards, and renewed focus on traditional energy [35][36][37] US新能源汽车 Policy Overview - Key policies under Biden include rejoining Paris Agreement, setting 2030/2050 emissions targets, $1 trillion infrastructure law with $7.5B for EV charging, $280B CHIPS Act, and IRA with $7,500 EV tax credits [9][29][30] - California leads with ACC II regulations requiring 100% zero-emission vehicle sales by 2035, though adoption varies by state [22][23] - CAFE standards have tightened under Biden, with proposed 58 mpg target by 2032, reversing Trump-era relaxations [24][25][26][27] - Tariffs on Chinese EVs increased from 25% to 100% under Biden, with additional restrictions on Chinese auto components and technology [32][33] Potential Impacts of Trump Presidency - Likely to reduce emphasis on EV adoption, potentially rolling back Biden's 2030 50% EV target and relaxing emissions standards [35][36] - May impose higher tariffs, including 10% baseline tariff and 60% additional tariff on Chinese goods, while renegotiating USMCA to prevent tariff circumvention [2][37] - Could adopt more open stance towards Chinese automakers setting up US production, contrasting with Biden's FEOC restrictions [3][37] Market Context - US新能源汽车 market shows resilience but faces policy discontinuity and election uncertainty [8] - China's EV exports to US remain minimal at 1.4-1.7% of total exports, limiting impact of US tariffs [34] - Domestic substitution and technological innovation are key trends in China's response to US restrictions [34]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the Chinese electric vehicle (EV) industry, indicating a shift from policy-driven growth to market-driven growth, with a projected penetration rate of over 50% for new energy vehicles in 2024 [2]. Core Insights - The new energy vehicle market in China is experiencing significant growth, with retail sales of 609,000 units in the first 20 days of October, representing a 45% year-on-year increase [1]. - The report highlights the competitive landscape, noting that domestic brands are expected to continue gaining market share, supported by strong product offerings and successful international expansion [2]. - The introduction of advanced battery technologies, such as CATL's "Xiaoyao" super hybrid battery, is expected to enhance the performance and appeal of new energy vehicles [1]. Summary by Sections 1. Key Targets Tracking - The report tracks the performance of various segments within the new energy vehicle market, including sodium-ion batteries, lithium batteries, and battery recycling [11]. 2. Industry Data Procurement 2.1. Global Vehicle Data - Global sales of new energy vehicles are on the rise, with significant contributions from China and Europe [13]. 2.2. China Vehicle Data - In China, the sales of electric vehicles (EVs) are projected to reach approximately 900,000 units in 2024, with a notable increase in plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHVs) as well [15]. 2.3. Europe Vehicle Data - European markets are also seeing growth in new energy vehicle sales, with specific data indicating a rise in both EV and PHV sales [16]. 3. Industry Dynamics 3.1. Policy Information - The report discusses the impact of government policies on the new energy vehicle sector, emphasizing the importance of supportive measures for continued growth [5]. 3.2. Industry Trends - Key trends include the ongoing price competition among manufacturers and the emergence of protectionist measures in international markets [2]. 3.3. Company Developments - Notable developments include CATL's advancements in battery technology and Mercedes-Benz's establishment of a battery recycling facility [1][2]. 4. Industry Perspectives - The report emphasizes the importance of vertical integration for manufacturers to maintain competitive advantages and cost efficiencies [2]. 5. Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on companies with strong product capabilities, successful international expansion, and stable supply chains [2].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the Chinese electric vehicle (EV) industry, indicating a shift from policy-driven growth to market-driven growth, with a projected penetration rate of over 50% for new energy vehicles (NEVs) in 2024 [2]. Core Insights - The new energy vehicle market in China has shown strong growth, with retail sales of 408,000 units from October 1-13, 2023, representing a 64% year-on-year increase [1]. - The cumulative retail sales for the year reached 7.54 million units, a 39% increase compared to the previous year [1]. - The report highlights the competitive landscape, noting that domestic brands are expected to continue gaining market share, supported by the launch of competitive new models and vertical integration strategies [2]. Summary by Sections Key Targets Tracking - The report includes various charts tracking the performance of key sectors within the new energy vehicle market, such as charging stations, EVs, and battery technologies [11][12]. Industry Data Procurement - Global and Chinese vehicle sales data are presented, showing significant growth in the NEV sector, with a focus on the increasing penetration rates in various regions [13][15]. - The report emphasizes the importance of stable supply chains and strong product capabilities for companies in the industry [2]. Hot News Summary - Recent developments include the global launch of Leap Motor's B series and discussions regarding potential increases in tariffs on large displacement fuel vehicles, which could impact consumer purchasing behavior and promote further green transformation in the automotive industry [1][2]. Industry Perspective - The report indicates that the competitive dynamics are shifting, with a focus on cost reduction and efficiency improvements through integrated supply chains [2]. Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on companies with strong product offerings, successful international expansion, and stable supply chains [2].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the Chinese electric vehicle (EV) industry, indicating a shift from policy-driven growth to market-driven growth, with a recommendation to focus on companies with strong product capabilities and stable supply chains [2]. Core Insights - In September, the sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) in China reached 1.287 million units, marking a year-on-year increase of 42.3%, with a penetration rate of 45.8%. Cumulatively, NEV sales for the first three quarters of the year reached 8.32 million units, up 32.5% year-on-year, with a penetration rate of 38.6% [1]. - The domestic retail penetration rate for new energy passenger vehicles exceeded 50% for three consecutive months, reaching 53.3% in September, an increase of 16.8 percentage points compared to September 2023 [1]. - The report highlights strong growth in lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries, with a year-on-year increase of 49.6% in battery installations, totaling 54.5 GWh in September. Cumulatively, battery installations for the first three quarters reached 346.6 GWh, up 35.6% year-on-year [1]. - Tesla launched its autonomous taxi service, "Cybercab," and NIO announced the upcoming release of its third brand, "Firefly," set for December 2024 [1]. Summary by Sections 1. Key Targets - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on companies with strong product capabilities and successful international expansion [2]. 2. Industry Data Collection 2.1. Global Vehicle Data - Global NEV sales and penetration rates are discussed, indicating a growing trend in the adoption of electric vehicles worldwide [13][18]. 2.2. China Vehicle Data - The report provides detailed statistics on NEV sales in China, highlighting significant growth in both battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs) [17]. 2.3. European Vehicle Data - Insights into NEV sales in Europe are included, showcasing the region's increasing adoption of electric vehicles [18]. 2.4. North American Vehicle Data - The report outlines the trends in NEV sales in North America, reflecting the market dynamics in that region [18]. 2.5. Other Regions - Data on NEV sales in other regions is summarized, indicating a global shift towards electric mobility [18]. 3. Industry News Summary 3.1. Industry Data in China - The report summarizes key industry data, including sales figures and market penetration rates for NEVs in China [1][2]. 3.2. Company Dynamics - Updates on major companies in the NEV sector, including product launches and strategic developments, are highlighted [1]. 3.3. Overseas Policy Information - The report discusses international policies affecting the NEV market, particularly in relation to protectionism and competition [2]. 4. Industry Perspective - The report presents an optimistic view of the NEV industry, emphasizing the transition to market-driven growth and the competitive landscape [2]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report advises investors to focus on companies with strong product offerings, successful international strategies, and stable supply chains [2].

Market Performance - The top-performing domestic commodities before the National Day holiday were SSE 50, soda ash, CSI 300, CSI 500, glass, iron ore, coking coal, coke, PVC, and palm oil, with gains concentrated in equity indices, ferrous metals, and building materials[5] - The worst-performing domestic commodities were fuel oil, live pigs, styrene, wire rod, low-sulfur fuel oil, LPG, tin, corn starch, corn, and apples, with losses concentrated in energy and agricultural products[5] Style Rotation - The cycle/growth style rotated to underweight growth, while the industrial/agricultural style rotated to overweight Nanyang Industrial Products[2] - The precious metals/industrial products style rotated to overweight Nanyang Industrial Products, and the gold/oil ratio rotated to overweight gold[2] Arbitrage Performance - The top three performing arbitrage pairs were the rebar-hot rolled coil spread, PP-3*MA spread, and palm oil-soybean oil spread[2] - The worst three performing arbitrage pairs were the rapeseed oil-palm oil spread, FU-SC spread, and L-PP spread[2] Macro Drivers - Strong US non-farm payroll data in September slightly cooled market expectations for rate cuts, indicating resilience in the US economy[2] - Domestic policy optimism has risen again with the introduction of growth-stabilizing policies, driving a rebound in undervalued sectors like equity indices, ferrous metals, and building materials[2] Risk Factors - Potential distortion in profit data due to differences in spot targets and constants in profit formulas[16]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the Chinese electric vehicle (EV) industry, indicating a shift from policy-driven to market-driven growth, with a recommendation to focus on companies with strong product capabilities and stable supply chains [2]. Core Insights - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China surpassed 30% in 2023 and is expected to exceed 50% in 2024, marking the first time that new energy vehicles outnumber traditional fuel vehicles [2]. - The competitive landscape is evolving, with domestic brands likely to continue increasing their market share, supported by the first-mover advantages of leading companies [2]. - Ongoing price wars in the domestic market and rising protectionism abroad are influencing the competitive dynamics within the industry [2]. Summary by Sections 1. Key Targets - Multiple new energy brands achieved record delivery numbers in September, with companies like Li Auto, Leap Motor, and Xpeng surpassing historical highs [1]. - Li Auto's domestic weekly sales exceeded luxury brands BBA for the first time, indicating strong market performance [1]. 2. Industry Data Procurement 2.1 Global Vehicle Data - Global sales and penetration rates for new energy vehicles are on the rise, reflecting a growing acceptance and demand for EVs [13][18]. 2.2 China Vehicle Data - In China, the sales figures for electric vehicles (EV) and plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHV) are showing significant growth, with detailed statistics available for analysis [17]. 2.3 European Vehicle Data - European markets are also experiencing growth in EV sales, with specific data on sales figures for various countries [18][19]. 3. Industry News Summary 3.1 Policy Information - The European Union voted to impose anti-subsidy tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, which may impact market dynamics and trade relations [1]. 3.2 Industry Data - The report highlights the increasing penetration of new energy vehicles in various regions, with specific focus on sales trends and market shifts [2][12]. 3.3 Company Dynamics - Companies like Leap Motor are expanding into international markets, with new models set to launch in Europe, indicating a strategic push for growth [1]. 4. Industry Perspective - The report emphasizes the importance of vertical integration for manufacturers to maintain competitive advantages and cost efficiencies [2]. 5. Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on companies with strong product offerings, successful international expansion, and stable supply chains to capitalize on the growth of the new energy vehicle market [2].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a strong bullish outlook for the industry, with expectations of price increases exceeding 15% in the short, medium, and long term [26]. Core Insights - The production capacity of Tesla's 4680 cylindrical battery has significantly improved, with a 51% increase in Q2 compared to Q1, and the first 100 million units successfully produced by September 15 [8][22]. - Major suppliers from Japan and South Korea, including LG Energy Solution, Samsung SDI, and Panasonic, have announced plans to commence mass production of the 4680 cells, with LG's initial capacity expected to be 8GWh by the end of 2024 [3][22]. - The adoption of dry electrode technology for the 4680 battery is a significant breakthrough, aiming to reduce production costs and environmental impact [2][22]. Summary by Sections 1. Tesla 4680 Cylindrical Battery Production - Tesla's 4680 battery production has ramped up, with a reported average output of 495,000 units per day over the last 101 days, compared to an average of 140,000 units per day from October 2023 to June 2024 [8][22]. - Suppliers like LG Energy Solution and Samsung SDI are in various stages of readiness to begin mass production, with timelines extending into 2025 [8][22]. 2. Significance of the 4680 Battery - The 4680 battery, with a diameter of 46mm and height of 80mm, offers significant advantages in cost reduction and energy density, achieving a fivefold increase in single-cell capacity and a 16% improvement in vehicle range compared to previous models [15][17]. 3. Current State of the Cylindrical Battery Market - The cylindrical battery market is currently dominated by square batteries in China, with cylindrical batteries accounting for only 2.2% of the total installed capacity [22][24]. - The competitive landscape is shifting, with major automakers like Tesla and BMW leading the charge in cylindrical battery adoption, influencing upstream suppliers [18][23]. 4. Future Outlook - The report highlights the potential for further cost reductions through technological advancements, particularly in dry electrode processes, which could reshape the competitive dynamics of the industry [24][22]. - The increasing focus on cylindrical batteries by leading manufacturers is expected to enhance market conditions and drive further investment in this segment [23][22].

周度报告——新能源汽车 smingfTable_Title] 蔚来子品牌乐道新车 L60 上市 小鹏 MONA M03 刷新新势力量产速度 ★ 动态跟踪 市场销量方面，9 月 1-15 日，新能源乘用车市场零售 44.5 万辆， 同比去年 9 月同期增长 63%，较上月同期增长 12%，今年以来累 计零售 645.4 万辆，同比增长 37%；9 月 1-15 日，全国乘用车厂 商新能源批发 44.1 万辆，同比去年 9 月同期增长 49%，较上月 同期增长 29%，今年以来累计批发 712 万辆，同比增长 32%。展 望 9 月全月，乘联分会预计，新能源零售预计 110.0 万辆左右， 同比增长 47.3%，渗透率约 52.4% 新车方面，近期多款新车上市，9 月 19 日，蔚来子品牌乐道首 新 能 源 与 新 材 料 款车型乐道 L60 上市，9 月 20 日极氪 7X 上市，9 月 26 日阿维塔 07 上市（阿维塔品牌的第三款车型）等。在多年的发展和迭代 后，自主品牌们在产品性能、形象设计，乃至品牌塑造方面都有 质的飞跃，我们对新车型产品的市场反应保持期待和关注。 另外小鹏新车 MONA M03 上市 ...