Investment Rating - The report indicates a strong bullish outlook for the industry, with expectations of price increases exceeding 15% in the short, medium, and long term [26]. Core Insights - The production capacity of Tesla's 4680 cylindrical battery has significantly improved, with a 51% increase in Q2 compared to Q1, and the first 100 million units successfully produced by September 15 [8][22]. - Major suppliers from Japan and South Korea, including LG Energy Solution, Samsung SDI, and Panasonic, have announced plans to commence mass production of the 4680 cells, with LG's initial capacity expected to be 8GWh by the end of 2024 [3][22]. - The adoption of dry electrode technology for the 4680 battery is a significant breakthrough, aiming to reduce production costs and environmental impact [2][22]. Summary by Sections 1. Tesla 4680 Cylindrical Battery Production - Tesla's 4680 battery production has ramped up, with a reported average output of 495,000 units per day over the last 101 days, compared to an average of 140,000 units per day from October 2023 to June 2024 [8][22]. - Suppliers like LG Energy Solution and Samsung SDI are in various stages of readiness to begin mass production, with timelines extending into 2025 [8][22]. 2. Significance of the 4680 Battery - The 4680 battery, with a diameter of 46mm and height of 80mm, offers significant advantages in cost reduction and energy density, achieving a fivefold increase in single-cell capacity and a 16% improvement in vehicle range compared to previous models [15][17]. 3. Current State of the Cylindrical Battery Market - The cylindrical battery market is currently dominated by square batteries in China, with cylindrical batteries accounting for only 2.2% of the total installed capacity [22][24]. - The competitive landscape is shifting, with major automakers like Tesla and BMW leading the charge in cylindrical battery adoption, influencing upstream suppliers [18][23]. 4. Future Outlook - The report highlights the potential for further cost reductions through technological advancements, particularly in dry electrode processes, which could reshape the competitive dynamics of the industry [24][22]. - The increasing focus on cylindrical batteries by leading manufacturers is expected to enhance market conditions and drive further investment in this segment [23][22].

周度报告——新能源汽车 smingfTable_Title] 蔚来子品牌乐道新车 L60 上市 小鹏 MONA M03 刷新新势力量产速度 ★ 动态跟踪 市场销量方面，9 月 1-15 日，新能源乘用车市场零售 44.5 万辆， 同比去年 9 月同期增长 63%，较上月同期增长 12%，今年以来累 计零售 645.4 万辆，同比增长 37%；9 月 1-15 日，全国乘用车厂 商新能源批发 44.1 万辆，同比去年 9 月同期增长 49%，较上月 同期增长 29%，今年以来累计批发 712 万辆，同比增长 32%。展 望 9 月全月，乘联分会预计，新能源零售预计 110.0 万辆左右， 同比增长 47.3%，渗透率约 52.4% 新车方面，近期多款新车上市，9 月 19 日，蔚来子品牌乐道首 新 能 源 与 新 材 料 款车型乐道 L60 上市，9 月 20 日极氪 7X 上市，9 月 26 日阿维塔 07 上市（阿维塔品牌的第三款车型）等。在多年的发展和迭代 后，自主品牌们在产品性能、形象设计，乃至品牌塑造方面都有 质的飞跃，我们对新车型产品的市场反应保持期待和关注。 另外小鹏新车 MONA M03 上市 ...

周度报告——新能源汽车 smingfTable_Title] 8 月新能源汽车同比增长 30% 美对华电动车加征 100%关税政策落地 ★ 动态跟踪 市场销量方面，9 月 1-8 日，新能源车市场零售 21.4 万辆，同比 增长 56%，较上月同期增长 11%，今年以来累计零售 622.3 万辆， 同比增长 36%；9 月 1-8 日，全国乘用车厂商新能源批发 19.4 万 辆，同比增长 41%，较上月同期增长 28%，今年以来累计批发 687.3 万辆，同比增长 32%。 海外关税政策方面，上周，欧盟反补贴关税将再度小幅下调税率， 特斯拉拟议税率将从 9%降至 7.8%，比亚迪维持17%的税率不变， 吉利从 19.3%降至 18.8%，上汽集团从 36.3%降至 35.3%，其他配 新 能 源 与 新 材 料 合调查公司税率从 21.3%降至 20.7%，其他未配合公司税率从 36.3%降至 35.3%。持续关注 9 月 25 日的投票。 美国 13 日发布有关对华加征 301 关税最终决定，其中电动汽车 的关税增加幅度达到 100%。相关措施将于 9 月 27 日生效。5 月 14 日，美方发布对华加征 ...

热点报告——商品期货 d[Table_Title] 库存周期定位下的行业中观比较（十一） [★Ta库bl存e_周Su期mm跟a踪ry]及点评 [T报ab告le_日Ra期nk：] 2024 年 9 月 9 日 中国 8 月制造业 PMI 持续边际回落。而美国衰退风险抑制市场 风险偏好。我们通过跟踪库存周期，来观测当前经济周期所处 的位置和行业的边际变化。 投资咨询号：Z0016707 Tel: 8621-63325888 库存周期：7 月产成品存货与利润总额回升，营收同比持平。中 国工业企业产成品存货同比录得 5.2%，较前值回升 0.5 个点；工 业企业营业收入同比录得 2.9%，与前值持平；利润总额同比录 得 4.1%，较前值回升 0.5 个百分比。美国名义库存周期略微回 升，实际库存周期仍在负值区间走扩。 行业中观：7 月营收和利润总额边际改善的行业比例略见好转。 下游符合补库周期特征的行业包括服装纺织和造纸业，中上游 制造业的景气度变动受大宗原料估值回落的影响。原料库存分 化，部分工业品因估值偏低持续去库，而供需错配驱动部分品 种库存水平高于往年同期且持续累库。 商 品 期 货 通胀周期：8 月 PPI ...

周度报告——商品期货 d[Table_Title] 商品风格轮动周报： 工农板块走势分化 [Table_Rank] 报告日期： 2024 年 9 月 8 日 [Table_Summary] ★商品市场概述 2024 年 9 月 6 日当周，多数商品下跌，涨幅靠前的品种集中于 农产品及国债板块，跌幅靠前品种集中于黑色金属及能源化工 板块。 ★风格轮动及品种间相对估值表现 周内，周期/成长风格轮动至空配成长；工业品/农产品风格轮 动至空配南华工业品；贵金属/工业品风格轮动至空配南华工业 品；金/油比价轮动至空配油。 周内套利对表现相对最强的三个头寸分别为：PP-3*MA 主力合 约价差、菜油-棕榈油主力合约价差、菜油-豆油主力合约价差； 周内套利对表现相对最弱的三个头寸分别为：棕榈油-豆油主力 合约价差、豆粕菜粕主力合约价差、螺纹热卷主力合约价差。 海外方面，美联储降息政策逐渐从预期走向现实，需警惕靴子 落地风险。周内多数风险资产回落，短期汇率波动风险不利于 商品估值。商品方面，虽然季节性规律来看终端需求或边际好 转，但实际需求好转有限，且市场悲观预期暂未扭转。从历史 规律和当前预期来看，短期贵金属和农产品或相对 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a shift in the investment rating for the Chinese electric vehicle (EV) industry from policy-driven to market-driven, with a projected penetration rate of over 50% in 2024, marking the first time EVs are expected to surpass traditional fuel vehicles [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) in China has exceeded 30% in 2023 and is anticipated to surpass 50% in 2024, indicating a significant market transition [2]. - The competitive landscape is evolving, with domestic brands expected to increase their market share, and leading companies benefiting from first-mover advantages [2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of vertical integration for automakers to maintain core competitiveness and bargaining power, which can lead to cost reduction and efficiency improvements [2]. - It recommends focusing on companies with strong product capabilities, successful international expansion, and stable supply chains [2]. Summary by Sections Market Dynamics - In August 2023, the retail sales of NEVs reached 718,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 48%, and cumulative retail sales for the year reached 5.707 million units, up 35% [1]. - The wholesale sales of NEVs in China for the same period were 675,000 units, reflecting a 24% year-on-year growth, with cumulative wholesale sales of 6.237 million units for the year, a 29% increase [1]. - Notable delivery figures include Li Auto with 48,122 units (up 37.8% YoY) and Leap Motor with 30,305 units (up 113.5% YoY) in August [1]. Policy Developments - The report mentions the introduction of the first national safety inspection standard for NEVs, effective March 1, 2024, which mandates safety checks for power batteries and electrical systems [1]. - A notification supporting the scrapping and updating of old operational trucks has been issued, with funding shared between central and local governments [1]. Competitive Landscape - The report indicates that the competitive environment is intensifying, with a focus on the launch of high-competitiveness new models and ongoing price wars in the domestic market [2]. - The emergence of overseas protectionism is also noted as a potential challenge for the industry [2].

周度报告——新能源汽车 smingfTable_Title] 欧盟公布反补贴税收决议草案 福特放缓电动车生产计划 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2024 年 8 月 25 日 ★ 动态跟踪 市场销量方面，8 月 1-18 日，乘用车新能源市场零售 49 万辆， 同比去年 8 月同期增长 58%，较上月同期增长 27%；全国乘用车 厂商新能源批发 43.1 万辆，同比去年 8 月同期增长 33%，较上 月同期增长 21%。 上周，欧盟委员会公布对从中国进口的电动汽车征收最终反补贴 税的决定草案。拟议的附加税率有小幅下调：比亚迪、吉利、上 汽分别加征关税 17.0%、19.3%和 36.3%；配合调查的企业税率为 21.3%，不配合调查的企业税率为 36.3%；从上海工厂出口的特 新 能 源 与 新 材 料 斯拉获得 9%的最低关税税率。上述关税均是在对电动汽车进口 征收 10%的常规进口税的基础上进行征收。调查期间尚未开始出 口的中国企业以及与欧盟企业的合资企业可能会享有较低的关 税税率。此外，不会追溯征收反补贴税。 另外，福特汽车电动化转型放缓。表示将取消一款三排座电动 SUV 的生产计划，并推迟推出其 ...

周度报告——新能源汽车 smingfTable_Title] 欧盟或征收追溯性关税 极氪将于 25 年进入日本市场 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2024 年 8 月 18 日 ★ 动态跟踪 市场销量方面，8 月 1-11 日，新能源乘用车市场零售 27.4 万辆， 同比去年 8 月同期增长 57%，较上月同期增长 25%，对应新能源 渗透率达到 52.6%；厂商批发 22.1 万辆，同比去年 8 月同期增长 29%，较上月同期增长 16%，对应新能源渗透率达到 57.1%。 政策端，上周，国家能源局印发《配电网高质量发展行动实施方 案（2024—2027 年）》，提出将建设一批满足新型主体接入的项 目。结合分布式新能源的资源条件、开发布局和投产时序，有针 对性加强配电网建设，提高配电网对分布式新能源的接纳、配置 新 能 源 与 新 材 料 登记。 和调控能力；满足电动汽车充电基础设施的用电需求，助力构建 城市面状、公路线状、乡村点状的充电基础设施布局。 欧盟近期表示，将考虑是否对中国电动车从今年 3 月起征收追溯 性关税，将在秋季做出最终决定。今年 3 月起已经开始进行海关 与之相关联，极星 Pole ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the Chinese electric vehicle (EV) industry, indicating a shift from policy-driven growth to market-driven growth, with a recommendation to focus on companies with strong product capabilities and stable supply chains [3]. Core Insights - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) in China has surpassed 50% for the first time, marking a significant milestone in the market's evolution [2][3]. - In July, NEV sales reached 991,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 27%, with a domestic sales figure of 887,000 units, reflecting a 30.7% growth [2]. - The report highlights the increasing integration of electric vehicles with the power grid, emphasizing the importance of smart charging and energy storage solutions [2]. - The competitive landscape is evolving, with domestic brands expected to gain market share, and leading companies benefiting from first-mover advantages [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Key Target Tracking - The report includes a weekly performance overview of related sectors, indicating fluctuations in stock prices for major players in the NEV market [11][12]. 2. Industry Chain Data Tracking 2.1. Global Vehicle Data - Global NEV sales and penetration rates are tracked, showcasing trends and shifts in the market [14][19]. 2.2. China Vehicle Data - Detailed statistics on NEV sales in China, including electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles, are provided, illustrating the growth trajectory [18][24]. 2.3. European Vehicle Data - The report presents data on NEV sales in Europe, highlighting the region's market dynamics [19][22]. 3. Hot News Summary - The report compiles significant policy updates, industry data, and corporate developments relevant to the NEV sector [5]. 4. Industry Perspectives - Insights into the evolving market landscape and competitive dynamics are discussed, emphasizing the importance of innovation and strategic positioning [3]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report advises investors to focus on companies with strong product offerings and successful international expansion strategies [3].

周度报告——风电行业 风电板块震荡下行， 行业催化密集落地 报告日期: 2024 年 8 月 11 月 ★ 风电行情回原 本周风屯设备板块下跌 3.0%，跑输沪深 300 指数 1.4 个百分 点，跑輪创业板指数 0.4 个百分点。 ★ 裝机登方面，1-6 月份全国新增发电裝机容量 15276 万千瓦，同 比增加 1878 万千瓦；其中，新增风电装机客量 2584 万千瓦， 同比增加 285 万千瓦。 从发电器上看，6 月份全国规模以上工业风力发电器 669 亿千 瓦时，同比增长 12.7%。从用电量上看，6 月份全社会用电量 8205 亿千瓦时，同比增长 5.8%。 原材料方面，本周铸造生铁/底钢/中原板现货价格分别为 3278/2250/3500 元/ч;，环比上周变化-0.3%/-3.43%/-0.85%; 电 解铜现贷价格 71515 元/吨，环比上周下跌 2.43%； 环氧材脂 12900 元/ 呢，环比上周不变； 轶轶硼现货价格 150 元/ 千克， 环比上周不变。 ★ 近期，风电领域逆未多项积极进展，包括广西北海跨将启动的 6.5GW 海上风电项目招标，以及上海获批的 2930 万千瓦深远 海风 ...