1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Due to short - term policy incentives, the demand for photovoltaic glass is expected to improve, and prices are expected to remain stable, potentially ending the downward trend. However, the actual consumption increase is still uncertain, and the industry is currently in a stage of severe losses [1][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Photovoltaic Glass Weekly Outlook - **Supply**: Last week, 4 furnaces in the domestic photovoltaic glass market were blocked for production reduction, involving a production capacity of 950 tons and 4 manufacturers, leading to a decline in overall supply. With the short - term demand improvement expectation, there is a possibility of restoring blocked furnaces [7][12]. - **Demand**: Last week, the domestic photovoltaic glass market received short - term policy benefits. The industry carried out short - term export rush actions, and downstream buyers increased their purchases. The actual consumption increase is still uncertain as some component manufacturers are still digesting the policy [7][22]. - **Inventory**: Last week, photovoltaic glass manufacturers slightly reduced their inventory. With continued policy support, it is expected that the market supply will remain stable this week, downstream purchases will increase, and the industry may continue to reduce inventory [7][25]. - **Cost - profit**: Last week, the gross profit margin of the photovoltaic glass industry was approximately - 18.9%. The market has re - entered a stage of low - price competition, and the industry is suffering serious losses [7][28]. 3.2 Domestic Photovoltaic Glass Industry Chain Data Overview 3.2.1 Photovoltaic Glass Spot Price - As of January 16, the mainstream price of 2.0mm coated (panel) photovoltaic glass in China was 10.5 yuan per square meter, unchanged from the previous week. The mainstream price of 3.2mm coated glass was 16.5 yuan per square meter, also unchanged from the previous week [8]. 3.2.2 Supply End - Four furnaces were blocked for production reduction last week, reducing the supply. With the policy of export tax - refund cancellation, there is a short - term export rush, and the blocked furnaces may resume production due to the expected improvement in demand [12]. 3.2.3 Demand End - The short - term policy incentive led to an export rush. Downstream buyers increased their purchases, accelerating the shipment of manufacturers. However, the actual consumption increase is still uncertain [22]. 3.2.4 Inventory End - Last week, manufacturers' inventory decreased. With stable supply and increased downstream purchases expected this week, the industry may continue to reduce inventory [25]. 3.2.5 Cost - profit End - The gross profit margin of the photovoltaic glass industry was about - 18.9% last week, indicating severe losses in the low - price competition stage [28]. 3.2.6 Trade End - From January to November 2025, China's photovoltaic glass export volume increased by 26.1% compared with the same period in 2024. The export end remains prosperous, and overseas installation demand is strong [34].

Report's Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Views - Global market risk appetite has weakened, leading to a decline in the US dollar and a stock - bond - exchange triple - kill in the US. Geopolitical risks, such as the issue of Greenland acquisition, are the main drivers of market fluctuations, while the fundamentals and changes in interest - rate cut expectations remain relatively stable [2][15]. - In the stock market, there is a clear seesaw effect between growth stocks and dividend stocks, and the market rotation speed has accelerated. It is not yet possible to determine the end of the spring rally, and attention should be focused on the technological industry trends and the intensity of the Two Sessions' policies [3][23]. - In the commodity market, different commodities show different trends. For example, gold is strong, while some metals and agricultural products are under pressure. The prices of some commodities are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy regulations, and geopolitical risks [4][11][36]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Poland's central bank plans to increase its gold reserves by up to 150 tons, aiming to rank among the top 10 countries with the largest gold reserves globally. A Danish pension fund will exit the US Treasury market. Gold has risen by about 2% and reached a new high. The market's risk aversion has increased, and the distrust of the US dollar has grown, which supports the price of gold. The silver is weaker than gold, and the gold - silver ratio is expected to rise in the short term. It is recommended to focus on the opportunity to go long on the gold - silver ratio [11]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump stated that if the Supreme Court restricts the federal government's tariff policy, he can use other means. His intention regarding Greenland has not changed, which has led to a weakening of global market risk appetite and a decline in the US dollar. The US dollar index is expected to weaken in the short term [12][15]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Netflix's Q4 performance was excellent, but its Q1 guidance was disappointing. Geopolitical risks have continued to escalate during the long weekend, and the trade dispute between the US and Europe over Greenland has intensified, leading to a significant decline in market risk appetite. The performance of the stock market has been suppressed, and the three major US stock indexes have fallen by more than 2%. It is expected that the US stock market will fluctuate at a high level during the earnings season [17][19][20]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The latest LPR quotes remained unchanged. The Ministry of Finance and other departments announced a package of five fiscal - financial policies to promote domestic demand. The stock market continued to adjust, with a clear seesaw effect between growth stocks and dividend stocks. It is not yet possible to determine the end of the spring rally, and it is recommended to continue holding long positions in stock index futures [21][22][23]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The 1 - month LPR has remained stable for eight consecutive months. The central bank conducted a 324 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse - repurchase operation, with a net withdrawal of 34.6 billion yuan on the same day. The stock market's upward momentum is weak, and the trading volume of treasury bond futures has increased. The short - term rebound of treasury bond futures is expected to continue, but the medium - to long - term trend remains bearish. It is recommended to short after the market's upward momentum fades [25][26][27]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The Mongolian imported coking coal market has shown mixed trends. Coke producers have initiated the first round of price increases, which are still in the negotiation stage. The supply is relatively stable, while the downstream steel and coke enterprises are actively restocking. The inventory has decreased rapidly. In the short term, the spot price is supported by the downstream restocking sentiment, but the upward momentum of the futures price is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate [28][29]. 2.2 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Two departments have issued measures to support urban renewal. A steel group has completed a strategic acquisition to build a high - end special - steel production base. Steel prices have continued to decline, and the fundamentals of finished products have faced increasing pressure in January. The seasonal decline in demand is expected to be more obvious, and the export has also weakened marginally. It is recommended to adopt a range - trading strategy before the Spring Festival and hedge inventory when the price rebounds [30][31][32]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - In 2025, China's soybean imports reached a record high of 111.83 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.5%. Brazil's soybean exports in the first three weeks of January increased by 145% compared to the same period last year. The prices of domestic and foreign futures have remained weak. Although the soybean imports in the first quarter are expected to be at a low level, the current inventory is at a historical high, and the supply is sufficient. It is expected that the prices of domestic and foreign futures will remain weak under the condition of a bumper harvest in South America [33][34][36]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Malaysia's palm oil exports from January 1 - 20 increased by 8.64% month - on - month. The palm oil price is expected to be supported in the short term due to its cost - effectiveness and the active purchasing attitude of countries such as India. However, the upward space is limited. Attention should be paid to the resistance at the 8800 - 8900 yuan level [38]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Brazil's sugar exports in the first three weeks of January increased by 39% compared to the average daily exports in January of the previous year. India may raise the minimum selling price of sugar. China's imports of syrup and premixed powder in December 2025 decreased significantly. The domestic sugar market is facing seasonal supply pressure during the peak production period, and the demand during the pre - Spring Festival stocking period is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, but the downward space is limited [39][40][42]. 2.6 Non - Ferrous Metals (Alumina) - Ghana is promoting the construction of its first large - scale alumina refinery. The inventory of alumina enterprises has increased, and the futures price is under pressure [43]. 2.7 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - In December 2025, China's lithium ore imports increased by 8.1% month - on - month, and lithium carbonate imports decreased by 14% year - on - year. The price of lithium carbonate has reached the daily limit, which is affected by factors such as mine - end disturbances and demand support. In the short term, it may continue to reduce inventory. The price is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall. It is recommended to look for opportunities to go long after the position and volatility stabilize [44][45][46]. 2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - Six departments have issued a management method for the recycling of new - energy vehicle waste power batteries. The prices of domestic and foreign lead have oscillated downward. The macro - level disturbances have increased, and the supply - demand contradiction has eased. The social inventory is expected to continue to rise, which will suppress the lead price. It is recommended to look for opportunities to short on rallies [47][48][49]. 2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - In December 2025, China's galvanized sheet exports increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, while zinc concentrate imports decreased month - on - month. The zinc price has oscillated weakly, affected by macro - level disturbances. The fundamentals of LME zinc have weakened, and the social inventory has increased slightly. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and be vigilant against geopolitical risks [50][51][53]. 2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - A company has made progress in high - speed copper cable business. Peru's copper production in November 2025 decreased by 11.2% year - on - year. China's scrap - copper imports in December 2025 increased month - on - month. The short - term macro - level negative factors have relatively increased, and the global visible inventory has risen, which will suppress the copper price. It is expected that the copper price will change from a strong rise to a wide - range oscillation, and it is recommended to wait and see [54][55][57]. 2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Tin) - The discount of LME tin has reached 108.01 US dollars per ton. The inventories of both the SHFE and LME have increased significantly. The processing fees of smelters have risen, and the demand remains weak. The price is expected to oscillate widely in the short term, and attention should be paid to the supply recovery and consumption improvement [58]. 2.12 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Norway's oil production in December was 1.962 million barrels per day. The oil price has oscillated and rebounded, supported by concerns about geopolitical uncertainties. The market lacks new drivers in the short term, and the oil price is expected to oscillate [59][60]. 2.13 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - A company's PP devices have stopped for maintenance. An extreme cold wave warning has been issued in the US, which has raised concerns about the short - term supply and exports of LPG. The outer - market price is expected to be strong in the near term, and the inner - market price may follow passively [61][62]. 2.14 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - On January 20, the closing price of CEA was 73 yuan per ton, a decrease of 9.88% from the previous day. After the 2024 compliance period, the market trading activity has cooled down significantly. The price is expected to oscillate widely, and it is recommended to buy on dips if there is demand [62][63]. 2.15 Energy and Chemicals (LLDPE) - As of January 16, 2026, the social inventory of polyethylene has decreased month - on - month, but the LLDPE inventory is still at a relatively high level compared to the same period last year. The LLDPE price has a large callback space, and the 05 - contract price is expected to decline to the 6550 - 6600 yuan level [64][66]. 2.16 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - The PTA spot market negotiation was light in the afternoon. The PTA futures price has increased with increased positions. The short - term upward space is limited due to factors such as the relatively abundant supply of PX and the weak speculative demand of downstream industries. It is expected to oscillate in the short term and go long on dips in the medium term [67][68][69].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Financial Markets**: Geopolitical risks, such as Trump's tariff policies and statements regarding Greenland, along with the upcoming Cook hearing, are influencing market risk - appetite. These factors are causing increased volatility in precious metals, US stock index futures, and other financial instruments. For example, the uncertainty around the Cook hearing and Trump's actions are leading to concerns about the Fed's independence and future inflation [11][14]. - **Commodity Markets**: Different commodities are facing various supply - demand situations. In the agricultural sector, South American soybean production is expected to be bountiful, while in the metal and energy sectors, factors like production changes, inventory levels, and geopolitical events are affecting prices. For instance, the potential release of Russian gasoline exports and the production adjustments of First Quantum Minerals in the copper market [32][52][45]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - **News**: Powell will attend the Cook hearing. Geopolitical risks and Trump's tariff policies have increased market risk aversion, driving up precious metals prices [11]. - **Investment Advice**: Short - term precious metals may experience increased volatility. With the gold - silver ratio at a low level, there are opportunities to go long [12]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - **News**: Powell's attendance at the Cook case hearing and Trump's ambiguous statement about Greenland are increasing geopolitical risks. The potential dismissal of Cook may raise concerns about the Fed's independence [13][14]. - **Investment Advice**: During the US stock earnings season, volatility is expected to increase, and the US stock market is likely to oscillate at high levels [15]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - **News**: Premier Li Qiang held a symposium, emphasizing high - quality development and the implementation of more active fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies. China's GDP in Q4 2025 increased by 4.5% year - on - year, and the narrowing of price declines has boosted nominal GDP growth [16][18]. - **Investment Advice**: Hold long positions in stock index futures [19]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - **News**: December economic data was mostly below expectations, with a pattern of weakening overall, strong supply and weak demand, and domestic demand weaker than external demand. The bond market is expected to be volatile, and the probability of continued weakening after the oscillation is relatively high [20][22]. - **Investment Advice**: Be cautious when chasing up or betting on rebounds. Consider short - selling opportunities during rebounds [23]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - **News**: The price of metallurgical coke in the Lvliang market is stable with a slight upward trend. Downstream steel mills have not responded to the coke price increase proposed by coke enterprises. Short - term spot prices are supported by downstream replenishment, but the upward momentum in the futures market is limited [24]. - **Investment Advice**: Expect short - term oscillations [24]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - **News**: In 2025, China's infrastructure investment decreased by 2.2% year - on - year, and real estate investment decreased by 17.2%. The terminal demand for steel products remains weak, and the fundamentals do not support a significant rebound in steel prices [25][28][29]. - **Investment Advice**: Adopt an oscillatory approach to steel prices. Hedge inventory at high prices if there is a rebound [30]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - **News**: As of last Thursday, the Brazilian 25/26 soybean harvest rate was 2%. South American soybean production is expected to be abundant. Domestic soybean meal inventory has decreased but remains at a historically high level [31][32]. - **Investment Advice**: Expect weak oscillations in domestic and international futures prices [33]. 3.2.4 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - **News**: Lead inventories in five major social warehouses increased. The low - inventory risk has been alleviated, and the fundamentals are weakening [34][35]. - **Investment Advice**: Consider short - selling opportunities at high prices. Adopt a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage [37]. 3.2.5 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - **News**: The zinc price is oscillating. Social inventories are rising, but the absolute increase is not large. Geopolitical risks need to be watched out for [38][39]. - **Investment Advice**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach for short - term single - side trading, and do not chase short positions. Wait and see for both monthly spread and internal - external arbitrage [39]. 3.2.6 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - **News**: The second - phase project of Qingtao Energy's solid - state battery in Chengdu is progressing smoothly. The futures trading rules of lithium carbonate have been adjusted. The demand side is showing signs of strength, but the price transmission issue needs attention [40][41][42]. - **Investment Advice**: Focus on long - position opportunities at low prices after the trading volume and volatility stabilize [43]. 3.2.7 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - **News**: South Mining Group focuses on gold and copper investments. First Quantum Minerals has lowered its copper production guidance. Geopolitical risks and macro - economic uncertainties are affecting copper prices [44][45][47]. - **Investment Advice**: Adopt a short - term wait - and - see approach. Look for long - position opportunities at low prices in the medium term. Wait and see for arbitrage [48]. 3.2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Tin) - **News**: The LME tin price is in a contango. The Shanghai Futures Exchange has adjusted the tin futures delivery warehouses. Supply uncertainties exist, and demand is weak [49][50][51]. - **Investment Advice**: Pay attention to December customs data, processing fees in Yunnan refineries, and the recovery of consumption [51]. 3.2.9 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - **News**: Russia may lift the gasoline export ban in February. As the Iranian situation cools down, the risk premium of oil prices is expected to decrease [52][53]. - **Investment Advice**: The short - term upward driving force for oil prices is weakening [54]. 3.2.10 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - **News**: The weekly production of domestic liquefied petroleum gas increased slightly. The external market is relatively strong, but the upward space is limited [55]. - **Investment Advice**: Expect price sideways oscillations [56]. 3.2.11 Energy and Chemicals (Asphalt) - **News**: Asphalt refinery inventories decreased, while social inventories increased. Terminal demand is weakening, and the market is expected to be weak before the Spring Festival [56]. - **Investment Advice**: Expect short - term weak oscillations in asphalt prices [57]. 3.2.12 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - **News**: Pure benzene and styrene prices are rising. The increase in styrene is due to unexpected maintenance and export growth. Attention should be paid to geopolitical risks and US tariff policies [60]. - **Investment Advice**: Focus on long - position opportunities at low prices, but beware of risks such as excessive pure benzene imports and weak terminal purchasing [61]. 3.2.13 Energy and Chemicals (Urea) - **News**: The demand for urea from a sample of compound fertilizer producers in Shandong decreased. Urea production is expected to increase, and inventories are decreasing at a slower pace. Policy and demand factors are influencing prices [62][63]. - **Investment Advice**: Expect short - term oscillations in urea prices. The average price may decline in the next two weeks. Consider long - position opportunities in the 05 contract after the demand recovers [64]. 3.2.14 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - **News**: The domestic PVC powder market price is slightly weak. The export tax - rebate policy will be cancelled in April, and domestic demand is expected to weaken before the Spring Festival [65][66]. - **Investment Advice**: Be bearish on PVC in the short term [66]. 3.2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - **News**: The price of caustic soda in Shandong decreased. Supply is abundant, and demand is weak. Inventories are high, and the market is under pressure [67][68][69]. - **Investment Advice**: Expect the caustic soda market to be under pressure before the Spring Festival [69].

Report Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the entire industry are provided in the report. Core Views - The geopolitical situation is escalating due to Trump's tariff announcements, affecting market risk - appetite across various asset classes. [5][15][17] - Different markets are in various states, with some facing supply - demand imbalances, while others are influenced by policy changes and seasonal factors. [2][24][30] Summary by Category Financial News and Comments Macro Strategy (Gold) - Fed Chair candidate Hasset is out, and Trump's tariff announcement boosts gold's safe - haven appeal. Gold is expected to be bullish in the short - term, and there is an opportunity to go long on the gold - silver ratio. [12][13] Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump's tariff on European countries over Greenland raises geopolitical risks, and the US dollar index is expected to rise in the short - term. [15][18] Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Geopolitical risks and uncertainty about the new Fed Chair lead to high - level oscillations in the US stock market during the earnings season. [22] Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducts reverse repurchase operations. Bond market rebound momentum will weaken, with a short - term oscillatory trend and a bearish long - term outlook. [24][25] Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Regulators are cooling the stock market, and the spring rally needs new catalysts. The long - position strategy for stock indices can be maintained. [26] Commodity News and Comments Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The port coke spot market is weak. The spot price is supported by downstream restocking, but the upward momentum of the futures is limited, with a short - term oscillatory trend. [28] Black Metals (Steam Coal) - Indonesian low - calorie steam coal prices are stable. Considering the cold wave in February, coal consumption is expected to rise, and coal prices are expected to remain flat. [30] Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Congo (DRC) restarts a large - scale iron ore export project. Iron ore prices are expected to continue the oscillatory trend due to high inventory and weak demand. [31][32] Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Steel production and inventory data show that supply - demand contradictions are accumulating. Steel prices may be strong in the short - term but face high inventory risks later. [35][37] Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - US biofuel policy and China - Canada trade agreements affect the oil market. Palm oil has short - term long - position opportunities, soybean oil can be a long - position variety, and rapeseed oil should be observed. [38][41] Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Indian sugar production is increasing, and demand is recovering. International sugar prices are expected to be strong in the short - term, and domestic sugar prices are expected to oscillate. [44][45] Agricultural Products (Cotton) - US cotton export sales are strong, but the upward momentum of the external market is limited. Domestic cotton prices are expected to oscillate and adjust before the Spring Festival. [51][52] Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - South American soybean harvest is promising, and domestic soybean meal supply is excessive. The May contract of soybean meal will remain weak. [53] Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - There are issues in some copper mines. Macro - level factors weaken, and copper prices are expected to oscillate at high levels. [57][58] Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Supply disruptions and demand support lead to a situation where lithium carbonate prices are likely to rise. Look for long - position opportunities after the position and volatility stabilize. [62][63] Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - LME's decision has a limited impact on lead. Lead fundamentals are weakening, and a short - selling strategy is recommended. [65][66] Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Macro - sentiment weakens, but zinc fundamentals are not significantly weak. Zinc prices may oscillate and adjust in the short - term. [70] Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Nickel supply is expected to shrink, and prices are likely to rise. Look for long - position opportunities on dips. [72][73] Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - Tin price fluctuations intensify. Pay attention to customs data, processing fees, and consumer recovery. [77][78] Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - With the decline of risk premiums, LPG prices are expected to oscillate horizontally. [80] Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - EU carbon prices are rising, with a short - term oscillatory and strong trend. [81][82] Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - US oil rig count increases, and the short - term upward momentum of oil prices is expected to weaken. [83][84]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The trading activity in the commodity options market slightly declined this week, with an average daily trading volume of 8.91 million contracts and an average daily open interest of 8.65 million contracts, showing a week-on-week change of -5.28% and +0.30% respectively. Investors are advised to focus on potential market opportunities in actively traded varieties [1][7]. - The underlying assets of commodity options showed mixed performance, with non-ferrous metals and precious metals mostly rising. The varieties with higher weekly gains include silver (+20.03%), Shanghai tin (+14.78%), and styrene (+4.10%); those with higher weekly losses include caustic soda (-9.80%), glass (-3.58%), and rapeseed meal (-3.55%) [2][16]. - Most commodity options' implied volatility increased this week, with 51 varieties having their current implied volatility above the 50th percentile of the past year. For varieties with high implied volatility, pay attention to unilateral risks and consider short - volatility opportunities; for those with low implied volatility, buying options has a relatively high cost - performance [2][16]. - The PCR values of certain varieties indicate that the market has concentrated expectations for both upward and downward movements. For example, the trading volume PCR of lithium carbonate, LPG, and propylene is at a historical high, indicating a short - term concentrated expectation of a decline; while the trading volume PCR of crude oil, polysilicon, and rebar is at a one - year low, indicating a concentrated expectation of an increase [3][17]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Options Market Activity - The average daily trading volume of the commodity options market this week was 8.91 million contracts, and the average daily open interest was 8.65 million contracts, with a week - on - week change of -5.28% and +0.30% respectively [1][7]. - The actively traded varieties this week include silver (690,000 contracts), PTA (620,000 contracts), and glass (580,000 contracts) [1][7]. - Five varieties had a trading volume increase of over 100%, with significant growth in styrene (+192%), fuel oil (+182%), and Shanghai zinc (+164%); while industrial silicon (-85%), polysilicon (-77%), and lithium carbonate (-71%) had significant trading volume declines [1][7]. - The varieties with relatively high average daily open interest this week were cotton (530,000 contracts), soybean meal (500,000 contracts), and glass (470,000 contracts), and fuel oil had a relatively rapid week - on - week increase in open interest (+71%) [1][7]. 3.2 This Week's Main Data Review of Commodity Options 3.2.1 Underlying Asset Price Movements - Non - ferrous metals and precious metals generally rose. High - gain varieties were silver (+20.03%), Shanghai tin (+14.78%), and styrene (+4.10%); high - loss varieties were caustic soda (-9.80%), glass (-3.58%), and rapeseed meal (-3.55%) [2][16]. 3.2.2 Market Volatility - Most commodity options' implied volatility increased this week. Varieties with a large week - on - week increase in implied volatility include silver (+18.611 pct), tin (+15.11 pct), and lithium carbonate (+8.86 pct) [2][16]. - Varieties with implied volatility at a historical high include non - ferrous metals, caustic soda, pure benzene, and PVC; those at a historical low include urea and manganese silicon [2][16]. 3.2.3 Options Market Sentiment - The trading volume PCR of lithium carbonate, LPG, and propylene is at a historical high, indicating a short - term concentrated bet on a decline; the trading volume PCR of crude oil, polysilicon, and rebar is at a one - year low, indicating a concentrated bet on an increase [3][17]. - The open interest PCR of propylene, Shanghai tin, and synthetic rubber is at a historical high, indicating a high level of bearish sentiment; the open interest PCR of log, polysilicon, and live hogs is at a one - year low, indicating a build - up of bullish sentiment [3][17]. 3.3 Key Data Overview of Main Varieties This chapter mainly presents key data of main varieties, including trading volume, volatility, and options market sentiment indicators. More detailed data can be found on the Dongzheng Fanwei official website (https://www.finoview.com.cn/) [21]. 3.3.1 Energy - Relevant charts show data on trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of crude oil [22][24]. 3.3.2 Chemicals - **PTA**: Charts display data on trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR [30][36]. - **Caustic Soda**: Similar data is presented through relevant charts [39][40]. - **Glass**: Key data is shown in corresponding charts [46][47]. - **Soda Ash**: Charts provide data on trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR [54][59]. 3.3.3 Precious Metals - Charts show data on trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of silver [62][66]. 3.3.4 Ferrous Metals - **Iron Ore**: Relevant charts present data on trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR [69][70]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Key data is shown in corresponding charts [76][77]. 3.3.5 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Charts display data on trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR [84][89]. - **Aluminum**: Similar data is presented through relevant charts [92][94]. 3.3.6 Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: Charts show data on trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR [98][99]. - **Palm Oil**: Key data is presented in corresponding charts [104][105]. - **Cotton**: Relevant charts provide data on trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR [112][117].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Last week, all Treasury bond futures contracts closed higher, with the 30-year, 10-year, 5-year, and 2-year main contracts rising by 0.26%, 0.27%, 0.22%, and 0.05% respectively. The basis of each variety was differentiated, and the overall market sentiment remained bearish. T was close to the upper edge of the shock range, with limited room for further increase, while TL was more likely to continue to be under pressure [6]. - Last week, the domestic commodity market was relatively balanced in terms of the number of rising and falling varieties. Silver and tin led the gains, with increases of over 20%, while caustic soda and glass led the declines. Except for the relatively poor returns of the basis and warehouse receipt factors, other types of commodity factors had varying degrees of increase. The volatility of commodity factor returns was rising, and investors were advised to pay attention to several types of commodity factors with long-term expected return capabilities and adopt a balanced allocation method to prevent risks [24][27]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Treasury Bond Futures Market Review - Last week, all Treasury bond futures contracts closed higher, with the 30-year, 10-year, 5-year, and 2-year main contracts rising by 0.26%, 0.27%, 0.22%, and 0.05% respectively [6]. - The basis of each variety was differentiated. The CTD bond of the 10-year Treasury bond was 250018, and the basis on the 16th was about 0.05 yuan, slightly lower than the seasonal level; the CTD bond of the 30-year Treasury bond was 210005, and the basis on the 16th was 0.22 yuan, lower than the seasonal level [6]. - The overall market sentiment remained bearish. The slight warming of sentiment drove the strength of varieties such as T, TF, and TS, but T was close to the upper edge of the shock range, with limited room for further increase; TL was more likely to continue to be under pressure [6]. Treasury Bond Futures Factor Analysis - For the 10-year Treasury bond, ranked by Sharpe ratio, the factors were the basis factor, risk assets, and member positions, with Sharpe ratios in 2025 of 1.68, 1.93, and 0.59 respectively [6][17]. - For the 5-year Treasury bond, ranked by Sharpe ratio, the factors were high-frequency capital flow, intraday volume-price, risk assets, member positions, and the basis factor, with Sharpe ratios in 2025 of 2.51, 2.27, 1.71, 1.33, and 0.78 respectively [6][18]. - For the 2-year Treasury bond, ranked by Sharpe ratio, the factors were high-frequency capital flow, the basis factor, intraday volume-price, and member positions, with Sharpe ratios in 2025 of 2.45, 1.82, 1.59, and 0.82 respectively [6][19]. Commodity Factor Performance - Last week, the domestic commodity market was relatively balanced in terms of the number of rising and falling varieties. Silver and tin led the gains, with increases of over 20%, while caustic soda and glass led the declines [24][27]. - Except for the relatively poor returns of the basis and warehouse receipt factors, other types of commodity factors had varying degrees of increase. The volume-price trend factors rose by an average of about 2.0%, and the term structure factors also had an increase of over 0.5% [24][27]. - The volatility of commodity factor returns was rising, and investors were advised to pay attention to several types of commodity factors with long-term expected return capabilities and adopt a balanced allocation method to prevent risks [24][27]. Tracking Strategy Performance - The CWFT strategy had an annualized return of 9.2%, a Sharpe ratio of 1.58, a Calmar ratio of 1.05, a maximum drawdown of -8.81%, a return of 0.19% last week, and a return of 0.21% since the beginning of this year [25]. - The C_frontnext & Short Trend strategy had an annualized return of 11.3%, a Sharpe ratio of 1.72, a Calmar ratio of 1.69, a maximum drawdown of -6.72%, a return of -0.05% last week, and a return of 0.41% since the beginning of this year [25]. - The Long CWFT & Short CWFT strategy had an annualized return of 12.0%, a Sharpe ratio of 1.36, a Calmar ratio of 0.92, a maximum drawdown of -13.07%, a return of -0.27% last week, and a return of 0.26% since the beginning of this year [25]. - The CS XGBoost strategy had an annualized return of 5.5%, a Sharpe ratio of 0.92, a Calmar ratio of 0.29, a maximum drawdown of -18.84%, a return of -1.05% last week, and a return of -2.50% since the beginning of this year [25]. - The RuleBased TS Sharp-combine strategy had an annualized return of 11.9%, a Sharpe ratio of 1.55, a Calmar ratio of 1.43, a maximum drawdown of -8.26%, a return of 1.04% last week, and a return of 0.46% since the beginning of this year [25]. - The RuleBased TS XGB-combine strategy had an annualized return of 11.5%, a Sharpe ratio of 2.01, a Calmar ratio of 2.57, a maximum drawdown of -4.49%, a return of 0.08% last week, and a return of -1.30% since the beginning of this year [25]. - The CS strategies, EW combine strategy had an annualized return of 12.6%, a Sharpe ratio of 1.79, a Calmar ratio of 1.70, a maximum drawdown of -7.38%, a return of -0.01% last week, and a return of 0.61% since the beginning of this year [25]. - Among the above six strategies, the CWFT strategy performed the best last week, with a return of 0.19%; the C_frontnext & Short Trend strategy performed the best since the beginning of this year, with a return of 0.41% [46]. - The equal-weight composite strategy of the above cross-sectional strategies (equal-weighted weekly returns) had an annualized return of 12.6%, a Sharpe ratio of 1.79, a Calmar ratio of 1.70, a maximum drawdown of -7.38%, a return of -0.01% last week, and a return of 0.61% since the beginning of this year [46].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for lithium carbonate is "Oscillation" [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Currently, the capital game in lithium carbonate futures outweighs the fundamentals game. Despite good downstream point - price transactions on Friday, it may not be able to accommodate the exit of the previously crowded long positions. However, with demand support and mining - end disturbances, lithium carbonate prices are likely to be generally more likely to rise than fall. - The core issue with the rise of lithium carbonate prices lies in price downward transmission. The rapid increase in cathode material prices has transferred the pressure to cell manufacturers. In the long - term, it is necessary to monitor whether the rise in lithium carbonate prices will affect the fulfillment of energy storage demand in the second half of the year. - It is recommended to focus on the opportunity to go long at low prices after the position volume and volatility stabilize [1][14] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Funds Game Intensifies, Market Fluctuations Amplify - **Price and Market Fluctuations**: Last week (1/12 - 1/16), lithium salt prices rose rapidly and then fell sharply. The LC2605 closing price increased by 1.9% to 146,200 yuan/ton. SMM battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate spot average prices increased by 12.9% and 13.2% to 158,000 and 154,500 yuan/ton respectively. Lithium hydroxide prices also fluctuated accordingly. - **Reasons for Price Decline**: The significant drop in lithium carbonate was mainly due to the position limit, which triggered long - position capital to take profits and caused a stampede. On Friday, the weighted lithium carbonate contract reduced positions by 48,800 lots, accounting for 5.5%. - **Fundamentals** - **Supply**: This week, SMM inventory decreased by 263 tons. Brazilian Sigma Lithium's mine may delay its resumption due to tailings treatment issues. There are rumors that some mica mines in Yichun have stopped production, affecting a monthly output of about 3,000 tons of LCE. SMM weekly production increased by 70 tons. - **Demand**: After cathode material manufacturers achieved short - term price support, many cathode manufacturers adjusted their production schedules. The demand in the off - season showed a stronger non - weakening feature. The downstream restocking demand was large on Friday, and it is expected to continue due to low raw material inventory days (about 9.1 days). - **Terminal Demand**: Domestic power demand is weak, but overseas power demand may improve, and energy storage demand maintains high growth [1][10][11][13] 3.2 Weekly Industry News Review - **Company News**: On January 13, Rongbai Technology announced a major contract with CATL. On January 18, it was announced that the company was filed by the CSRC for suspected misleading statements in the major contract announcement. - **International Trade**: China and Canada reached a preliminary trade agreement on electric vehicles. Canada will allow up to 49,000 Chinese electric vehicles to enter the market annually with a most - favored - nation tariff rate of 6.1%. - **Policy Adjustment**: The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted the trading fee standards and trading limits for lithium carbonate futures contracts from January 15. - **Mining News**: Brazil's Sigma Lithium's three waste dumps were shut down, delaying the mine's resumption and leading to a downgrade by Bank of America and a 15% drop in its stock price [15][16][17][18] 3.3 Key High - Frequency Data Monitoring of the Industrial Chain - **Resource End**: Lithium concentrate prices increased with the market. - **Lithium Salt**: The market fluctuated greatly, and the basis oscillated widely. - **Downstream Intermediates**: Downstream prices rose driven by costs. - **Terminal**: Power demand weakened month - on - month in January [10][11][14]

Industry Investment Rating - Alumina: Volatility [1] Core Views - The price of bauxite in Guinea is weak, and the supply of domestic alumina remains stable. The alumina market is in an oversupply cycle, and after a phased rebound, the market is expected to return to a weak pattern. [1][2][15] Summary by Directory 1. Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview - **Raw Materials**: Last week, domestic ore prices were stable. The delivered ex - tax price of 58/5 grade ore in Shanxi dropped to 665 yuan. There was less market - flowing ore and tight spot supply. A new CIF transaction of low - grade bauxite from Guinea was recorded at 60 US dollars per dry ton, equivalent to 63 - 64 US dollars per dry ton for 45/3 standard grade. Newly arrived ore was 4.599 million tons, including 3.846 million tons from Guinea and 0.553 million tons from Australia. The reference price of Cape ships from Guinea to China was 20 US dollars per ton. [2][12] - **Alumina**: Last week, the spot price of alumina declined. The ALD northern comprehensive price was 2600 - 2640 yuan per ton, a decrease of 20 yuan per ton from the previous week; the domestic weighted index was 2627.6 yuan per ton, a decrease of 34.1 yuan per ton. The port quotation of imported alumina was 2700 - 2740 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous week. The alumina futures price fell from a high. The domestic full - cost of alumina was 2642 yuan per ton, and the real - time profit was 61 yuan per ton. The total supply remained stable with both maintenance and restarts. The national alumina production capacity was 114.62 million tons, with 96.25 million tons in operation, an increase of 400,000 tons from the previous week, and the operating rate was 84%. [3][13] - **Demand**: Domestically, the new capacity of the second phase of Inner Mongolia Huomeihongjun Zhala Aluminum continued to be put into production, and the company's overall operating capacity increased to 900,000 tons. The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was 44.443 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 30,000 tons. Overseas, the electrolytic aluminum project of Angola Huatong Industrial Co., Ltd. was put into production on January 15th, with a total built - in capacity of 120,000 tons. The latest overseas electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was 29.838 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 50,000 tons. [13] - **Inventory**: As of January 15th, the national alumina inventory was 4.988 million tons, an increase of 53,000 tons from the previous week. The growth of alumina inventory in electrolytic aluminum enterprises slowed down, and the inventory in alumina enterprises increased slightly, mainly in medium - sized alumina enterprises without industrial chain support. Port inventory increased due to unloaded and unshipped vessels. Near the Spring Festival, the operation level and inventory reserve willingness of non - aluminum industries decreased, and the fine alumina inventory outside the scope was accumulating. [14] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 176,802 tons, an increase of 17,160 tons from the previous week. The alumina futures price fluctuated. Fundamentally, alumina enterprises were still not determined to cut production, the industry remained in an oversupply situation, and inventory continued to accumulate. [15] 2. Alumina Theoretical Import Profit Narrowed - **Alumina Theoretical Northern Import Loss**: As of January 16th, the Australian alumina quotation was about 308 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 2 US dollars from January 9th. The theoretical cost of reaching the northern ports of China was about 2682 yuan per ton, and the theoretical northern import loss was about 62 yuan per ton. [16] - **Indonesian Bauxite Policy and Alumina Market Dynamics**: From 2024 - 2025, the RKAB quota of Indonesian bauxite gradually tightened, from 15.87 million tons in 2024 to 12 - 15 million tons in 2025. In contrast, the local alumina production capacity in Indonesia increased to 6 million tons, with an increase of 3 million tons in 2025 alone. [16] - **Alumina Market Operation and Trading**: Recently, the alumina operation level remained above 95 million tons, but the restart and maintenance of roasting furnaces in different enterprises were still going on. At the beginning of this week, an alumina enterprise in Shanxi resumed full - production after maintenance, while a roasting furnace of an alumina enterprise in Henan started maintenance on January 13th and was expected to resume production on January 18th, with limited overall output fluctuations. [16] 3. Key Data Monitoring of the Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream 3.1 Raw Materials and Cost Side - The report presents data on domestic and imported bauxite prices, domestic bauxite port inventory, port shipping volume of major bauxite - importing countries, sea - floating inventory of major bauxite - importing countries, domestic caustic soda price trends, domestic thermal coal price trends, and domestic alumina production costs in each province, with data sources mainly from Shanghai Steel Union and the East Securities Derivatives Research Institute. [17][19][24] 3.2 Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance - The report shows data on domestic alumina spot prices in each province, imported alumina prices, domestic electrolytic aluminum spot prices, the futures price ratio of electrolytic aluminum to alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the weekly supply - demand balance of domestic alumina, with data sources from Shanghai Steel Union, Wind, and the East Securities Derivatives Research Institute. [31][33][35] 3.3 Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The report provides data on alumina inventory in electrolytic aluminum plants, alumina plants, domestic alumina yards/platforms/in - transit, alumina port inventory, total domestic social alumina inventory, the quantity of alumina warehouse receipts and open interest on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the ratio of open interest to warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, with data sources mainly from Aladdin, Wind, and the East Securities Derivatives Research Institute. [42][47][50]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for treasury bonds is "Oscillation" [5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The sustainability and extent of the bond market recovery should not be overestimated. The bond market's rebound momentum will weaken next week, and it will likely show a sideways trend due to cooling stock markets [2][12][14] - The monetary policy environment is not favorable for the bond market. The central bank prefers structural policies, and the probability of short - term reserve requirement ratio cuts or interest rate cuts is low [12][13] - Economic fundamentals at the beginning of the year may be stronger than market expectations. Policies in multiple areas such as currency and real estate are actively driving, and economic data may exceed expectations [13] - There are marginal negatives in terms of funds and supply. Next week, government bond supply will increase, reverse repurchase maturities are large, and January is a big month for tax payments, leading to tightened liquidity [13][14] - Investment strategies include a one - sided strategy of short - term oscillation and long - term bearishness, suggesting short - selling on rallies; a short - hedging strategy, maintaining a certain short - hedging position; and a curve strategy of moderately focusing on steepening the curve, such as going long 3T and short TL [2][15][16][17] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 One - Week Review and Outlook 3.1.1 This Week's Trend Review - From January 12th to 18th, treasury bond futures had a weak rebound. Their performance was affected by stock market trends, regulatory actions, and central bank policies. As of January 16th, the settlement prices of the two - year, five - year, ten - year, and thirty - year treasury bond futures main contracts were 102.400, 105.805, 108.065, and 111.170 yuan respectively, up 0.062, 0.235, 0.290, and 0.300 yuan from last weekend [1][10] 3.1.2 Next Week's Outlook - The bond market's rebound momentum will weaken, showing a sideways trend. The reasons include the unfavorable monetary policy environment, the possibility of economic data exceeding expectations, and tightened liquidity [12][13][14] 3.2 Weekly Observation of Interest - Rate Bonds 3.2.1 Primary Market - This week, 44 interest - rate bonds were issued, with a total issuance volume of 451.591 billion yuan and a net financing of - 192.540 billion yuan, down 311.643 billion and 541.724 billion yuan from last week respectively. 15 local government bonds were issued, with a total issuance volume of 74.841 billion yuan and a net financing of 65.570 billion yuan, down 42.823 billion and 52.094 billion yuan from last week respectively. 508 inter - bank certificates of deposit were issued, with a total issuance volume of 553.580 billion yuan and a net financing of - 254.880 billion yuan, up 378.520 billion yuan in issuance volume and down 101.580 billion yuan in net financing from last week [18] 3.2.2 Secondary Market - Treasury bond yields declined. As of January 16th, the yields of the two - year, five - year, ten - year, and thirty - year treasury bonds were 1.40%, 1.61%, 1.84%, and 2.30% respectively, down 3.32, 4.81, 3.62, and 0.70 basis points from last weekend. The 10Y - 1Y, 10Y - 5Y, and 30Y - 10Y spreads widened, and the yields of the one - year, five - year, and ten - year policy financial bonds also declined [28][29] 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures 3.3.1 Price, Trading Volume, and Open Interest - Treasury bond futures had a weak rebound. As of January 16th, the settlement prices of the two - year, five - year, ten - year, and thirty - year treasury bond futures main contracts were 102.400, 105.805, 108.065, and 111.170 yuan respectively, up from last weekend. The trading volumes of the two - year, five - year, ten - year, and thirty - year treasury bond futures this week were 36,416, 64,921, 75,626, and 121,759 lots respectively, down from last week. The open interests were 78,854, 161,793, 253,607, and 177,194 lots respectively, with changes compared to last week [36][38] 3.3.2 Basis and IRR - The current positive arbitrage strategy opportunities are not obvious. Recommended strategies include a negative duration strategy if expecting a large bond market correction and a long - old bond and short - futures, duration - neutral arbitrage strategy in the short - term [44] 3.3.3 Inter - delivery and Inter - variety Spreads - As of January 16th, the inter - delivery spreads of the 2603 - 2606 contracts of the two - year, five - year, ten - year, and thirty - year treasury bond futures were - 0.032, - 0.020, + 0.060, and - 0.100 yuan respectively, with changes compared to last weekend [50] 3.4 Weekly Observation of the Fundamentals - This week, the central bank conducted 951.5 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations, with 138.7 billion yuan in reverse repurchase maturities, achieving a net injection of 812.8 billion yuan. There were 600 billion yuan in term reverse repurchase maturities, and the central bank conducted 900 billion yuan in term reverse repurchase operations. As of January 16th, R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week rates changed compared to last weekend. The average daily trading volume of the inter - bank pledged repurchase increased compared to last week [52][53][57] 3.5 Weekly Overseas Observation - The US dollar index strengthened slightly, and the 10Y US Treasury yield rose slightly. As of January 16th, the US dollar index rose 0.23% from last weekend to 99.3691, the 10Y US Treasury yield rose 6 basis points to 4.24%, and the 10Y China - US Treasury yield spread was inverted by 239.5 basis points [59][60] 3.6 Weekly Observation of High - Frequency Inflation Data - This week, industrial product prices showed mixed trends, while agricultural product prices all rose. As of January 16th, the Nanhua Industrial Product Index, Metal Index, and Energy and Chemicals Index changed compared to last weekend, and the prices of pork, 28 key vegetables, and 7 key fruits also increased [63] 3.7 Investment Recommendations - The market is expected to be sideways in the short - term and bearish in the long - term. It is recommended to focus on short - selling on rallies [64]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for stock index trends is "Volatility" [4] Core View of the Report - The domestic stock market showed dramatic changes this week. With multiple trading days hitting record high trading volumes, regulatory actions to cool down the market were evident, suppressing stock performance. The stock index opened high and closed low, showing signs of a phased peak. From a capital perspective, ETFs such as the CSI 300 experienced net redemptions, which directly affected index prices. The CSRC's 2026 system work conference emphasized preventing market fluctuations and controlling the market rhythm. Therefore, the long - term slow - bull market pattern remains unchanged, but in the short term, market volatility will increase, and it still needs to accumulate upward momentum [2][10] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. One - Week View and Macro Key Event Overview - **Next - week view**: The regulatory measures are cooling down the market, leading to increased stock market volatility. The long - term slow - bull pattern remains, but short - term market shocks will intensify, and it needs to accumulate upward momentum [2][10] - **This - week key event focus**: - On January 12th, four departments jointly issued regulations on the operation of government investment funds, and the NDRC introduced evaluation and management methods for fund investment directions, supporting the cultivation of emerging and future industries [11] - On January 14th, the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges raised the margin ratio for margin trading to 100%; three departments issued tax incentives for home - buying replacement; China's December exports and imports both exceeded expectations [12][13][14] - On January 15th, the central bank implemented a 25BP structural interest rate cut, increased various re - loan quotas, and adjusted the minimum down - payment ratio for commercial real estate loans; at the end of 2025, China's social financing increased by 8.3% year - on - year [15][16] - On January 16th, the CSRC emphasized counter - cyclical adjustment to prevent market fluctuations; China and Canada reached a series of economic and trade agreements; the State Council executive meeting studied measures to promote consumption [17][18][19] 2. One - Week Market Quotes Overview - **Global stock market weekly overview**: From January 12th to 16th, global stock markets denominated in US dollars rose. The MSCI Global Index increased by 0.33%, with emerging markets (+2.25%) > frontier markets (+0.89%) > developed markets (+0.09%). The South Korean stock market rose 4.29%, outperforming the world, while the French stock market fell 1.47%, the worst - performing globally [1][21] - **Chinese stock market weekly overview**: From January 12th to 16th, most Chinese equity assets rose, with Hong Kong stocks > A - shares > Chinese concept stocks. The average daily trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges was 34653 billion yuan, an increase of 6131 billion yuan compared to last week. A - share broad - based indices were divided, with the STAR 50 Index rising 2.58% and the SSE 50 Index falling 1.74% [1][24] - **Weekly overview of GICS primary industries in Chinese and foreign stock markets**: Most global GICS primary industries rose this week, with real estate leading (+3.53%) and consumer discretionary falling the most (-1.39%). In the Chinese market, information technology had the largest increase (+3.37%), and real estate lagged (-3.66%) [27] - **Weekly overview of China's A - share CITIC primary industries**: Among China's A - share CITIC primary industries this week, 10 rose (28 last week) and 20 fell (2 last week). The computer industry had the largest increase (+4.31%), and the national defense and military industry fell the most (-5.66%) [1][29] - **Weekly overview of China's A - share styles**: Small - cap growth stocks outperformed this week [33] 3. Index Valuation and Earnings Forecast Overview - **Broad - based index valuation**: The report provides PE and PB data for various broad - based indices this week, at the beginning of the year, and their changes, as well as the eight - year percentile [43] - **Primary industry valuation**: The report provides PE and PB data for various primary industries this week, at the beginning of the year, and their changes, as well as the eight - year percentile [44] - **Broad - based index equity risk premium**: The ERP of the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 decreased slightly this week [45][49] - **Consensus expected earnings growth rate of broad - based indices**: The expected earnings growth rate of the CSI 300 in 2025 was adjusted down to 8.64% and in 2026 to 9.32%; for the CSI 500, it was adjusted down to 26.39% in 2025 and up to 22.70% in 2026; for the CSI 1000, it was adjusted down to 28.29% in 2025 and up to 23.27% in 2026 [51] 4. Liquidity and Capital Flow Tracking - **Interest rates and exchange rates**: This week, the 10Y and 1Y interest rates declined, and the spread widened. The US dollar index was 99, and the offshore RMB exchange rate was 6.96 [60] - **Trading - type capital tracking**: This week, the average daily trading volume of northbound funds increased by 740 billion yuan compared to last week, and the margin trading balance increased by 981 billion yuan [59] - **Tracking of funds flowing in through ETFs**: There are 30 on - exchange ETFs tracking the CSI 300, 29 tracking the CSI 500, 15 tracking the CSI 1000, and 40 tracking the CSI A500. This week, the shares of ETFs tracking the CSI 300 decreased by 21.4 billion, those tracking the CSI 500 decreased by 1.7 billion, those tracking the CSI 1000 decreased by 2.7 billion, and those tracking the CSI A500 decreased by 7.7 billion [62][63][65] 5. Tracking of China's Macro High - Frequency Data - **Supply side**: Tire production rates recovered after the Spring Festival [68] - **Consumption side**: Second - hand housing transactions increased seasonally [77] - **Inflation observation**: Producer prices rebounded, while agricultural product prices adjusted [88]