周度报告——股指期货 市场波动降低，仍需宏观加码 本周全球股市走修复逻辑，主要国家指数均涨超 2%。中国股市 也迎来修复。但行情有三方面超预期，一是修复力度偏弱，上 证指数周度涨幅仅 1.4%，单周未能收涨与 3900 点以上；二是市 场缩量，周五市场成交跌破 18000 亿元，抄底博弈的力量较弱； 三是微盘股涨幅较大，融资余额放量，表明部分投机性资金仍 较为活跃。总体来看，近期地缘因素仍具有较大不确定性，短 期内市场观望情绪较重也属于正常变化，本轮行情是流动性推 动的牛市，在流动性退坡之际，股指或将维持窄幅震荡。建议 关注 12 月即将召开的重磅会议。 ★风险提示： 经济基本面修复不及预期，海外地缘风险加剧。 | [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] 股指：震荡 | 王培丞 高级分析师（股指） | | --- | --- | | 报告日期： 2025 年 11 月 30 日 | [Table_Analyser] 从业资格号： F03093911 [Table_Analyser] | | [★Ta一bl周e_复Su盘mm：aAry股] 修复偏弱 | 投资咨询号： Z0017305 | | 本周（11/24-11 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Dollar: Volatile [5] Core Viewpoints - Market risk appetite has rebounded, most stock markets have bounced back, and most bond yields have declined. The yield of US Treasuries has dropped to 4.01%. The US dollar index has fallen by 0.72% to 99.46, and all non-US currencies have rebounded. Gold prices have risen by 4.3% to $4,239 per ounce, the VIX index has dropped to 16.35, and the spot commodity index has closed higher. Brent crude oil has risen by 3.2% to $64.35 per barrel [1][5][9]. - Multiple Fed officials have made dovish remarks, causing the market's expectation of a December interest rate cut to quickly rise to 80%. The market's concern about the AI bubble has decreased. US retail sales in September were below expectations, consumer momentum has slowed down, and inflation pressure has increased. Although the initial jobless claims for the week were lower than expected and the previous value, the weakening trend in the labor market remains unchanged. The lack of key inflation and employment data before the Fed's December interest rate meeting will increase market volatility [2][11]. - The short - term market will continue to be in a state of liquidity repair, with the US dollar index declining, risk assets rising, and safe - haven assets recovering [34]. Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Global Market Overview - Market risk appetite has rebounded, most stock markets have bounced back, and most bond yields have declined. The yield of US Treasuries has dropped to 4.01%. The US dollar index has fallen by 0.72% to 99.46, non - US currencies have generally appreciated, gold prices have risen by 4.3% to $4,239 per ounce, the VIX index has dropped to 16.35, the spot commodity index has closed higher, and Brent crude oil has risen by 3.2% to $64.35 per barrel [1][5][9] 2. Market Trading Logic and Asset Performance 2.1 Stock Market - Global stock markets have mostly risen, with US and Chinese A - share markets rebounding. The S&P 500 has risen by 3.73%, the Shanghai Composite Index has risen by 1.4%, the Hang Seng Index has risen by 2.53%, and the Nikkei 225 Index has risen by 3.35%. Fed officials' dovish remarks and Google's competition with NVIDIA in the AI field have boosted the stock market. However, the weakening economic fundamentals in China and the increasing willingness of funds to take profits at the end of the year limit the rebound of the stock market [10][11][13] 2.2 Bond Market - Global bond yields have mostly declined, with the 10 - year US Treasury yield dropping to 4.01%. The expectation of an interest rate cut has risen, but the downward space for long - term bond yields is limited due to future inflation pressure. The Japanese government's fiscal stimulus plan has pushed up the yield of Japanese government bonds. The yield of China's 10 - year Treasury bonds has risen slightly, and the inversion of the Sino - US interest rate spread has narrowed [14][18][20] 2.3 Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index has fallen by 0.72% to 99.46, and all non - US currencies have rebounded. The offshore RMB has risen by 0.48%, the euro has risen by 0.74%, the pound has risen by 1.02%, and other non - US currencies have also shown varying degrees of appreciation [23][24][26] 2.4 Commodity Market - Spot gold has risen by 4.3% to $4,239 per ounce due to the increased expectation of an interest rate cut and concerns about a short squeeze in silver. Brent crude oil has risen by 3.2% to $64.35 per barrel. The supply - demand pattern of oil prices remains weak, but concerns about supply and the decline of the US dollar have led to an increase in the commodity spot index [27][29] 3. Hotspot Tracking - US retail data in September were below expectations, and the slowdown in retail growth indicates weakening consumer momentum and rising downward pressure on the real economy. The market's expectation of a December interest rate cut has reversed, and the short - term market is in a state of liquidity repair [30][33][34] 4. Next Week's Important Event Tips - Monday: US November ISM Manufacturing PMI; Tuesday: Eurozone November CPI; Wednesday: US November ADP Employment and November ISM Non - Manufacturing PMI; Thursday: US initial jobless claims for the week and November Challenger Job Cuts; Friday: US December University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index [35]

周度报告-国债期货 债市短暂修复，但调整压力并未解除 [Table_Rank] 走势评级： 国债：震荡 报告日期： 2025 年 11 月 30 日 [Table_Summary] ★一周复盘：国债期货震荡转弱 本周（11.24-11.30）国债期货震荡转弱。周一，受 12 月美联储 降息预期升温影响，股指高开，但随即走弱；期债低开随即拉 升，全天偏强运行。尾盘市场预期稳地产政策即将发力，国债 利率小幅上行。周二，上午股市表现较强，国债期货震荡偏 弱，午后股市虽然转弱，但债市较为担忧稳增长政策公布、基 金费率新规落地，国债期货跌幅扩大。周三，国债期货大幅下 跌。上午 CPO 板块大幅上涨，下午市场担忧央行买债规模不及 预期，机构赎回规模也较大，利率上行，曲线走陡。周四，市 场消息面平静，大跌后市场情绪有所企稳，但机构做多动力也 不强，各品种窄幅震荡。周五，早盘股市走弱，国债期货拉 升，但债市多头力量并不强，随着股市拉升，国债期货回吐涨 幅。截至 11 月 28 日收盘，两年、五年、十年和三十年期国债 期货 2603 合约结算价分别为 102.378、105.735、107.915 和 114.460 元，分别 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - A-share market experienced a volume - shrinking adjustment with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.29% to 3875.26 points, the Shenzhen Component Index falling 0.25%, and the ChiNext Index falling 0.44%. The daily trading volume was 1.72 trillion yuan, down from 1.8 trillion yuan the previous day. In October, the revenue and profit growth rates of industrial enterprises turned negative, with quantity dropping, price stabilizing, and profit margins shrinking [14][15]. - The U.S. stock market was closed for Thanksgiving, and the stock index futures closed flat with light trading. Putin's statement on the peace plan had limited impact on the U.S. stock market [2]. - After a sharp decline in the bond market, the odds of going long improved, and there would be a repair, but the adjustment pressure still existed after the rebound [3]. - For agricultural products like soybeans, the supply - demand situation changed little, with Brazil's expected new - crop output hitting a record high. The market focused on U.S. soybean export sales [4]. - In the black metal sector, the overall inventory data of steel was okay, but the slow destocking of coils suppressed steel prices. Steel prices were expected to fluctuate in the short term [5]. - For energy - chemical products such as float glass, the inventory of float glass manufacturers decreased slightly this week, and the futures price rose due to rumors of production line shutdowns [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (U.S. Stock Index Futures) - Putin publicly discussed the peace plan but there was no final solution. The U.S. stock market was closed for Thanksgiving, and the market trading was light with the stock index futures closing flat. The progress of Russia - Ukraine negotiations had limited impact on the U.S. stock market. It was recommended to maintain a bullish view overall and observe if the 50 - day moving average could provide strong support [11][12]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The State Council executive meeting deployed the promotion of provincial - level overall planning of basic medical insurance. A - shares had a volume - shrinking adjustment. In October, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 5.5% year - on - year. It was recommended to evenly allocate long positions in various stock indexes [13][14][15][16]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - In October, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 5.5% year - on - year. The central bank conducted a 3564 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, with a net investment of 564 billion yuan. After a sharp decline, the bond market might have a short - term repair, but it was still bearish overall [17][18]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The USDA would release the weekly export sales report. The market expected U.S. soybean export sales to increase by 60 - 200 million tons. Brazil's soybean production in the 25/26 season was expected to reach a record 178 million tons. It was recommended to view the futures prices of both domestic and foreign markets with a range - bound perspective and focus on China's soybean purchases and South American weather [19][20]. 2.2 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - On November 27, the price of low - calorie steam coal in Indonesia was weak. After the end of winter stockpiling, coal prices were driven by actual supply and demand. It was recommended to pay attention to whether the daily consumption would turn positive after December to support coal prices [21]. 2.3 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - A Canadian mining company was advancing iron ore projects in Ukraine and Canada. Iron ore prices continued to fluctuate widely. With port inventories piling up and demand seasonally declining, iron ore was expected to maintain a range - bound trend [22]. 2.4 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The spot market of port coke fluctuated. For coking coal, supply was increasing while iron - making output decreased slightly. For coke, the market expectation weakened due to falling coking coal prices. It was recommended to focus on downstream restocking [23][24]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The开机 rate of corn starch increased, and inventory continued to decline significantly. It was recommended that starch would likely remain strong in the short term, and mid - short - term spread trading should be range - bound, while it might strengthen in the long - term [24][25]. 2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The corn inventory of major processing enterprises continued to decline counter - seasonally. The spot price was strong, and the futures price was oscillating at a high level. The 01 contract was expected to be difficult to fall, and it was not recommended to short the 03 and 05 contracts against the trend [26]. 2.7 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The production schedule of major white - goods in December 2025 decreased. The steel inventory data was okay, but the slow destocking of coils suppressed steel prices. It was recommended to view steel prices with a range - bound perspective [27][28][29][30]. 2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - A 30,000 - ton polysilicon plant would be built in Morocco. The spot price of polysilicon was mainly determined by the game between policy and fundamentals. It was recommended that the futures main contract might trade between 50,000 - 56,000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to range - bound trading opportunities [31][32][34]. 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The first - phase project of an industrial silicon project in Inner Mongolia reached an important milestone. The supply and demand situation of industrial silicon deteriorated, and it was recommended that the short - term futures price might oscillate between 8800 - 9500 yuan/ton [35][36]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead cash - 3 - month spread was at a discount. The social inventory of lead ingots decreased. It was recommended that short - position holders should look for opportunities to stop losses on dips, and it was better to wait and see for arbitrage and cross - border trading [37][38]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc cash - 3 - month spread was at a premium. The domestic social inventory of zinc decreased. It was recommended to wait and see for single - side trading, hold long - short spread positions for spread trading, and exit cross - border arbitrage positions in a timely manner [39][40][41]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Indonesia simplified the RKAB approval process. A project's production was expected to decline. The nickel market was still in surplus, but the current futures price was below the cost. It was recommended that previous short - position holders could gradually stop losses and consider going long at low prices [42][43][44]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - A lithium project in Ghana made progress. The production of domestic lithium carbonate decreased, and the inventory also decreased. It was not recommended to chase long positions, and short positions could be lightly established on the right - hand side if production resumed and demand declined in the off - season. A long - position strategy was recommended in the long - term [45][46]. 2.14 Energy - Chemical Products (Natural Gas) - U.S. natural gas inventory decreased more than expected, but further price increases were difficult due to warm - weather forecasts and weak overseas demand. NYMEX natural gas still faced downward pressure [47][48]. 2.15 Energy - Chemical Products (Carbon Emissions) - The closing price of CEA increased by 1.02% on November 27. The impact of the carry - over policy might be more emotional than real. It was recommended to wait and see [49][50][51]. 2.16 Energy - Chemical Products (Styrene) - The weekly production and capacity utilization of styrene decreased. The trading focus shifted back to domestic supply and demand. The inventory in East China was expected to increase, and it was recommended to pay attention to the implementation of pure - benzene maintenance plans and treat it as range - bound in the short term [51][52][53]. 2.17 Energy - Chemical Products (Caustic Soda) - The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong decreased due to weak demand. The supply was abundant, and inventory continued to accumulate. The short - term futures price was expected to remain weak, and attention should be paid to whether supply would shrink due to profit compression [54][55][56]. 2.18 Energy - Chemical Products (PVC) - The price of PVC powder had a narrow - range adjustment. The supply was expected to increase, and demand was suppressed by the weak real - estate market. It was recommended to short near - month contracts on rallies [57][58][59]. 2.19 Energy - Chemical Products (Soda Ash) - The inventory of soda ash manufacturers decreased this week. The supply decreased slightly, and demand increased. In the short term, the fundamentals of soda ash had some support, but it was recommended to take a bearish view in the medium - term and short far - month contracts on rallies [60][61][62]. 2.20 Energy - Chemical Products (Float Glass) - The inventory of float glass manufacturers decreased slightly this week. The futures price rose due to rumors of production line shutdowns. Attention should be paid to the risk of short - covering rebounds caused by news - related disturbances [63].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed's Beige Book shows little change in economic activity, but consumer spending has declined, and the downward pressure on the economic fundamentals persists, leading to a weakening of the US dollar index. The A-share market remains in a state of shrinking trading volume, and the market may enter a period of wait - and - see due to the marginal decline in liquidity. The bond market may experience a slight recovery after a significant decline, but it remains weak in the near term. Steel prices are oscillating, with limited upward drivers. Nickel investors can consider closing short positions and potentially going long. Oil prices have rebounded despite an increase in EIA crude inventories [1][2][3][4][5][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The Fed's Beige Book indicates that tariffs increase corporate financial pressure. Gold prices oscillated and closed higher. The market's risk appetite remained high, and the expectation of a December interest - rate cut by the Fed was further strengthened. Gold is expected to continue its oscillating trend in the short term [11][12]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The UK's Chancellor of the Exchequer announced a £26 billion tax increase. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased. The Fed's Beige Book shows little change in economic activity but a decline in consumer spending. The US dollar is expected to weaken in the short term [13][14][15][16]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The A - share market showed shrinking trading volume and divergence. Six departments issued a plan to enhance the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand. The market may enter a wait - and - see period due to the marginal decline in liquidity. It is recommended to evenly allocate long positions in each stock index [17][18][19]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week dropped to 216,000. The Fed's Beige Book shows little change in economic activity. US economic data indicates that the economy remains resilient, and the market risk appetite has improved. It is advisable to maintain a bullish view overall and observe if the 50 - day moving average can provide strong support [20][21][22][23]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 7 - day reverse repurchase operations worth 213.3 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 9.72 billion yuan. If the new regulations on fund fees are implemented in the short term, the bond market may rebound significantly. Otherwise, the bond market may experience a slight recovery after a significant decline but will remain weak. It is recommended to expect a short - term recovery but remain bearish on the market [24][25][26]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - MPOA data shows a 3.24% month - on - month increase in Malaysian palm oil production from November 1 - 20. The supply pressure on palm oil has eased, and the price has stabilized. It is advisable to wait for subsequent data [27]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The estimated arrival of imported soybeans at domestic oil mills in December is about 9.048 million tons, and the estimated soybean crushing volume in December is 9.569 million tons. The futures prices of soybeans are expected to remain oscillating. It is necessary to continue to monitor China's purchase of US soybeans and the weather in South American producing areas [28][29][30][31]. 2.3 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The price of coking coal in the Changzhi market is weakening. The supply of coking coal is increasing, while the demand for coke from steel mills is seasonally declining. In the short term, it is necessary to pay attention to the downstream restocking situation [32][33]. 2.4 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - In mid - November, the daily output of crude steel from key steel enterprises was 1.943 million tons. Steel prices are oscillating. The recent increase in steel prices is related to policy expectations and cost support, but the demand does not support a significant increase. It is recommended to adopt an oscillating trading strategy [33][35][36]. 2.5 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - Three cold air masses will affect China. After the completion of winter stockpiling, coal prices are driven by actual supply and demand. It is necessary to monitor whether the daily coal consumption turns positive in December to support coal prices at a seasonal high [37]. 2.6 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - 230 steel enterprises have completed the publicity of ultra - low emission transformation. Ore prices are expected to remain high and oscillating in December. It is advisable to wait and see [38][39]. 2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - European copper smelter Aurubis rejects low offers for copper concentrates. AI - driven data centers are becoming a new engine for copper demand. Macro - factors are mixed, and copper prices are expected to remain high and oscillating. It is recommended to go long on dips [40][41][42]. 2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - On November 24, the LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount of $28.49 per ton. The short - term fundamentals of lead are not weak. It is advisable to close short positions on dips and wait and see for arbitrage [43][44]. 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - On November 24, the LME 0 - 3 zinc was at a premium of $140.2 per ton. There is a risk of a mid - term squeeze on LME zinc. It is recommended to hold long positions in the calendar spread in the short term and exit the domestic - foreign reverse arbitrage in a timely manner [45][46]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - On November 26, LME nickel inventory increased by 1,038 tons. The smelting sector is gradually implementing production cuts, but the balance sheet still shows an oversupply. It is advisable for previous short - sellers to gradually close their positions and consider going long on dips. The situation of resource contraction in Indonesia needs to be evaluated in the medium term [47][48][49]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The UK will include critical mineral reserves in its defense procurement plan. The lithium battery market has optimistic expectations, but there are still differences in short - term market sentiment. It is not recommended to chase the long side. If production resumes and demand weakens in the off - season, it is advisable to go short on the right side. In the long - term, it is recommended to go long on dips [50][51]. 2.12 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The number of US oil rigs decreased, and EIA commercial crude inventories increased. Oil prices rebounded. It is expected that oil prices will remain oscillating and weak in the short term [51][52][53]. 2.13 Energy and Chemicals (Asphalt) - The capacity utilization rate of domestic heavy - traffic asphalt increased. The asphalt market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. It is expected that asphalt prices will oscillate in the short term [54][55]. 2.14 Energy and Chemicals (Methanol) - The methanol port inventory decreased significantly, but it is not a substantial positive factor. It is not recommended to go short, but it is advisable to wait and see for short - selling opportunities [56][57]. 2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The caustic soda market in Shandong showed mixed changes. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak. The short - term futures price is expected to remain weak. It is necessary to monitor whether supply reduction occurs due to profit compression [58][60][62]. 2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Urea) - The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises decreased. The decline in inventory supports the urea futures price. It is necessary to continue to monitor the release rhythm of winter storage demand [63][64]. 2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The import wood pulp spot market showed mixed price changes. It is expected that the pulp market will oscillate in the future [65][66]. 2.18 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - Chinese ports will resume loading and unloading US soybeans. The spot price of W50 has dropped more than expected, and the European line futures price has declined. It is recommended to wait and see [67][68].

热点报告—铂钯 smingfTable_Title] 铂钯上市系列专题三： 铂/钯期货正式合约解读及上市初期策略推荐 [★Ta铂bl/e钯_S近um期m行ar情y] 分析和展望 25 年铂钯价格的大涨驱动主要来自宏观面支撑和现货实际紧缺。 前者在于低估值贵金属、以及潜在的对黄金在实际需求和避险需 求上的替代效应；后者则是美国政策担忧引发囤货现象。价格趋 势而言，今年铂钯首轮上涨受自身基本面带动更多，第二轮上涨 则很大程度上是跟随贵金属，宏观和基本面交织定价。 有 宏观面中长期偏多，而短期震荡整理。中长期流动性释放与避险 属性依然构成利好，但短期因美联储政策博弈而陷入震荡。12 月降息预期、联储提名等事件存在博弈可能，宏观面迅速转弱的 可能性不大，但年内也较难看到创新高的驱动。 色 金 属 基本面边际趋松，但仍有博弈空间。2026 年供需缺口预计收窄， 但汽车领域铂代钯、珠宝与电子需求提供支撑。在不考虑投资需 求的背景下甚至可能转为紧平衡，2026 年钯金供需过剩幅度预计 扩大，主要受汽车需求被电车挤占拖累。 美国关税政策或是近阶段最重要的变量。美国关税政策是最大不 确定性。政策落地前，期现将形成正循环支撑价格 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Gold prices are expected to continue oscillating, with increased volatility. It is recommended to pay attention to the fluctuations [13]. - Stock Index Futures: It is recommended to evenly allocate long positions in each stock index [16]. - Foreign Exchange Futures (US Dollar Index): The US dollar is expected to weaken in the short term [20]. - US Stock Index Futures: Adopt a generally bullish approach, but note that the technology sector has not fully reversed its decline. Observe whether the 50 - day moving average can form strong support [25]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The bond market may shift from oscillation to a bearish trend. It is recommended to focus on short - term rebound short - selling strategies [30]. - Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil): The market is expected to maintain a weak oscillation. Wait for production data to show a decline before expecting a rebound; otherwise, it will likely remain weak [31]. - Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal): The futures price is expected to remain oscillating. Continue to monitor China's actual purchase of US soybeans and the weather in South American production areas [32]. - Agricultural Products (Corn Starch): Starch is expected to remain relatively strong in the short term, following the trend of corn. For price spreads, it is recommended to operate within a range [34]. - Agricultural Products (Corn): The short - term price is expected to remain high and oscillating. It is recommended to wait and see for the near - term contracts and not to short [38]. - Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil): Adopt an oscillating perspective and be cautious about the upward space [43]. - Agricultural Products (Pigs): Investors with existing short positions can continue to hold them and adjust stop - loss and take - profit points. For those not yet in the market, wait for a rebound to enter short positions. Long - term investors can focus on far - month contracts after significant corrections [46]. - Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead): For single - side trading, look for opportunities to stop losses at low prices; for arbitrage and cross - market trading, it is recommended to wait and see [48]. - Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc): For single - side trading, wait and see; for calendar spread arbitrage, hold long positions; for cross - market arbitrage, continue to wait and see [50]. - Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon): The futures main contract is expected to oscillate between 50,000 - 56,000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to range - trading opportunities [53]. - Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon): The short - term price is expected to oscillate between 8,800 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Pay attention to range - trading opportunities [55]. - Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper): For single - side trading, it is recommended to buy on dips; for arbitrage, continue to pay attention [59]. - Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel): Existing short - position holders can gradually stop losses and take profits, or lightly consider going long on dips. Mid - term evaluation of resource contraction in Indonesia is required [61]. - Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate): Do not chase long positions. If production resumes and demand declines in the off - season, consider lightly shorting on the right side. For the long - term, adopt a strategy of buying on dips [63]. - Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil): Oil prices are expected to oscillate with a bearish bias in the short term [66]. - Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions): It is recommended to wait and see [68]. - Energy Chemicals (LLDPE): The futures price of PE is expected to oscillate and decline under the influence of supply increase and demand decrease [70]. 2. Core Views - The US economic data in September, including retail sales and employment, showed weakness, increasing the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in December. The market risk appetite has recovered, and the US dollar index is expected to decline [19]. - The A - share market opened higher and rebounded, but due to uncertainties in Sino - Japanese relations, trading volume remained low, and it is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term [2][15]. - The bond market sentiment has weakened. With the possible introduction of pro - consumption policies and the impact of the fund fee rate new regulations, it is recommended to look for short - term short - selling opportunities on rebounds [29]. - In the agricultural products market, the supply pressure of oils and fats is large, and the market is expected to be weak; the supply - demand situation of soybean meal is stable, and the price is expected to oscillate; the price of corn and corn starch is expected to be relatively strong [31][32][38]. - In the non - ferrous metals market, the demand for lithium carbonate needs verification, and different trading strategies are recommended for the short - term and long - term; the price of copper is expected to oscillate at a high level, and it is recommended to buy on dips [5][59]. - In the energy chemicals market, the decline in oil prices is due to the progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace plan, and the short - term trend is bearish; the short - term trend of LLDPE is expected to decline under the influence of supply and demand [66][70]. 3. Summaries by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - News: Ukraine agreed to the terms of the peace agreement, and Fed Governor Milan called for significant rate cuts. The US budget deficit in October reached $284 billion [11][12][13]. - Comment: Gold prices oscillated and closed higher. The progress of the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire negotiation and the dovish speech of the Fed governor affected the market. In the short term, gold prices are expected to continue oscillating [13]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - News: China's foreign investment in the first 10 months increased by 6.2%, and the Sino - US leaders' call was initiated by the US [14][15]. - Comment: The A - share market opened higher and rebounded, but trading volume remained low due to uncertainties in Sino - Japanese relations. It is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term [15]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - News: Kevin Hassett is considered the leading candidate for the next Fed chair. The US labor market weakened, and retail sales in September increased slightly [17][18][19]. - Comment: The latest US retail data was lower than expected, and the labor market was weak. A rate cut in December is almost certain, and the US dollar is expected to weaken in the short term [19]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - News: Kevin Hassett is the leading candidate for the Fed chair. US retail sales in September increased by 0.2% month - on - month, lower than expected, and PPI increased by 0.3% month - on - month [21][22][23]. - Comment: PPI was basically in line with expectations, and core PPI growth was slightly lower than expected. Consumption momentum continued to slow down, and the expectation of a rate cut increased. Overall, a bullish approach is recommended, but pay attention to the technology sector [25]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - News: The State Council will hold a policy briefing, the central bank conducted 1 trillion yuan of MLF operations and 302.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations [26][27][28]. - Comment: The bond market sentiment has weakened. With the possible introduction of pro - consumption policies and the impact of the fund fee rate new regulations, it is recommended to look for short - term short - selling opportunities on rebounds [29]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - News: The export volume of Malaysian palm oil from November 1 - 25 decreased by 16.43% month - on - month [31]. - Comment: The oil market sentiment was weak, and the supply pressure was large. It is expected to maintain a weak oscillation. Wait for production data to show a decline before expecting a rebound [31]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - News: The net export sales of US soybeans in the week ending October 9 were 785,000 tons [32]. - Comment: The supply - demand situation of soybean meal changed little. The market will focus on the weather in South American production areas, and the price is expected to remain oscillating [32]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - News: The theoretical profits of corn starch enterprises in Heilongjiang, Jilin, Hebei, and Shandong on November 25 were 68 yuan/ton, 37 yuan/ton, 110 yuan/ton, and 11 yuan/ton respectively [33]. - Comment: The supply - demand pattern of starch improved, and enterprises remained profitable. Starch futures followed corn higher, and price spreads are expected to operate within a range [33]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn) - News: The domestic corn price showed mixed trends, with some regions rising and some falling [35][37]. - Comment: The spot price of corn remained strong, and the futures price continued to rise. The short - term price is expected to remain high and oscillating, and it is recommended to wait and see for the near - term contracts [38]. 3.2.5 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - News: The transaction volume of first - and second - hand houses in 30 key cities showed signs of stabilizing, and the inventory of the passenger vehicle industry at the end of October was 3.41 million [39][40]. - Comment: Steel prices oscillated and strengthened. The increase in steel prices was related to policy expectations and cost support, but the demand did not strongly support the price increase [41]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - News: Huatong Co., Ltd. plans to control costs in the next three years [44]. - Comment: The current spot price of pigs is oscillating and falling, which weakens market confidence in peak - season demand. It is recommended to adopt different trading strategies according to the situation [45]. 3.2.7 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - News: On November 24, the LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount of $28.49/ton [47]. - Comment: The LME lead price was in a downward trend, and the domestic lead price also declined. It is recommended to look for opportunities to stop losses on short positions [47]. 3.2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - News: On November 24, the LME 0 - 3 zinc was at a premium of $140.2/ton, and Kazakhstan's refined zinc production in October increased [49]. - Comment: The LME zinc price oscillated, and the domestic zinc inventory decreased. Different trading strategies are recommended for single - side trading and arbitrage [50]. 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - News: The cumulative photovoltaic installed capacity from January to October increased by 43.76% year - on - year, and the single - month installed capacity in October was 12.6 GW [51]. - Comment: The spot price of polysilicon is affected by policy and fundamentals. The price of leading manufacturers is expected to remain stable, and it is recommended to focus on range - trading opportunities [52]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - News: In October, the export volume of industrial silicon decreased by 36% month - on - month [54]. - Comment: The export of industrial silicon was lower than expected, and the balance sheet deteriorated. The price is expected to oscillate between 8,800 - 9,500 yuan/ton [55]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - News: India's Adani copper smelter is facing a shortage of ore, and the 2026 long - term processing fee for Chinese copper smelters may be at a historical low [56][58]. - Comment: The copper price is supported by market risk appetite but is also affected by economic data and geopolitical situations. It is expected to oscillate at a high level, and it is recommended to buy on dips [59]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - News: The SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased, and the LME nickel inventory remained unchanged. The production of Indonesia's QMB MHP project is expected to decline [60]. - Comment: The market risk appetite was supported, and the decline in MHP production may improve the balance sheet. It is recommended to adjust short - positions and consider going long on dips [60]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - News: Ganfeng Lithium's 800,000 - ton lithium iron phosphate project is expected to be put into production in 2026 [62]. - Comment: The demand for lithium carbonate needs verification. Do not chase long positions in the short term, and consider different strategies according to the situation [63]. 3.2.14 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - News: The production of Kazakhstan's largest oil field increased, and the US API crude oil inventory decreased [64][65]. - Comment: Oil prices declined due to the progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace plan. The short - term trend is bearish, and attention should be paid to the OPEC+ meeting [65]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - News: The closing price of CEA on November 25 was 60.16 yuan/ton [67]. - Comment: The impact of the carry - over policy on CEA price may be more emotional than substantial. It is recommended to wait and see [67]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (LLDPE) - News: China's apparent consumption of PE in October increased by 3.9% month - on - month [69]. - Comment: Under the influence of supply increase and demand decrease, the futures price of LLDPE is expected to oscillate and decline [70].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Fed officials' dovish stance on the labor market has increased market expectations of a December rate cut, boosting risk - asset sentiment [1][2][10][13] - The conversation between Chinese and US leaders is significant for mitigating local risks and resolving ambiguous issues [2][17] - Various commodities have different market conditions, with some in a state of supply - demand imbalance and others affected by policy and external factors [3][4][5] Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Fed officials Waller and Daly support a December rate cut, increasing market rate - cut expectations and risk appetite [10] - Gold prices are oscillating around $4000, and their trend depends on the Fed's stance. Gold price volatility has increased due to internal Fed differences [10] - Investment advice: Gold prices will continue to oscillate with increased volatility [11] 1.2 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Fed officials Waller and Daly worry about the labor market and support a December rate cut, but official economic data lags, and there is still room for short - term rate - cut expectation games [12][13] - The VIX index remains above 20, and market volatility has not fully subsided, but market sentiment has improved [13] - Investment advice: Adopt a generally bullish approach and wait for market volatility to decrease [14] 1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - In October, high - tech industry sales revenue increased by 13.6% year - on - year, with high - tech services and manufacturing maintaining double - digit growth [15] - The conversation between Chinese and US leaders and the Fed's dovish signal have boosted global risk assets [17] - Investment advice: Long - position investors can slightly increase their exposure [18] 1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted a net injection of 557 billion yuan through reverse repurchase operations. The market still expects real - estate stabilization policies, and bond yields rose slightly [19] - The inter - delivery spread of Treasury bond futures is narrowing. As the policy window approaches the end, the bond market may turn bearish [19][20] - Investment advice: The bond market may turn from oscillation to bearish. Consider short - term short - selling strategies [21] 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The USDA's weekly export inspection report met expectations, with 799,000 tons of US soybeans inspected for export in the week ending November 20 [22] - Domestic oil - mill soybean meal inventory increased to 1.1515 million tons, and the supply - demand situation remains weak [24][25] - Investment advice: Due to high inventory and cost support, soybean meal futures prices are expected to oscillate [25] 2.2 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - In October, the national average construction machinery start - up rate was 45.56%, with a 1.4% month - on - month increase [26] - 227 steel enterprises have completed the publicity of ultra - low emission transformation [27] - Steel prices have rebounded slightly, but the fundamentals have limited changes. Steel prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [27] - Investment advice: Adopt an oscillatory approach to steel prices [28] 2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - As of November 21, the total commercial inventory of the three major oils increased by 0.10 million tons month - on - month and 253,000 tons year - on - year [29] - Palm oil is under supply pressure, and soybean oil is affected by palm oil and US soybean oil [31] - Investment advice: Palm oil is expected to continue to decline, and the market is waiting for MPOA's production estimate for November 1 - 20 [31] 2.4 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal market in Lvliang is weak, with production increasing and some coal mines reducing prices [32] - Coke market expectations have weakened due to falling coking coal prices, and demand is also weakening [33] - Investment advice: In the short term, pay attention to downstream replenishment in the coking coal market, and coke will follow the coking coal trend [34] 2.5 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - As of November 24, the social inventory of lead ingots decreased, and there was a regional supply shortage [34] - LME lead prices stabilized around the MA60, and domestic lead futures funds' attention declined [35] - Investment advice: For single - side trading, short - position holders should look for opportunities to stop losses at low prices; for arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach [35] 2.6 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - As of November 24, domestic zinc inventory decreased, and LME zinc inventory increased slightly [36] - There is a risk of a medium - term squeeze in LME zinc, and domestic demand has not improved significantly [37] - Investment advice: For single - side trading, adopt a wait - and - see approach; for arbitrage, hold long - short position spreads and short - term domestic - foreign spreads [37] 2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The acquisition of Anglo American's Brazilian nickel business by MMG is subject to EU review, and the review time is uncertain [38] - An Indonesian MHP project is expected to cut production by 6,000 metal tons in December, which will improve the supply - demand balance to some extent [39] - Investment advice: Short - position holders can gradually stop losses, and consider lightly - weighted long - position entry at low prices [39] 2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Zimbabwe's lithium concentrate shipments in Q3 2025 reached a record high, and these shipments will arrive in China in Q4 [40] - The futures exchange has increased handling fees and restricted daily opening positions, and the market is under pressure [41] - Investment advice: In the short term, consider short - selling at high prices, as the supply - demand balance may change at the end of the year and in Q1 next year [42] 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Ivanhoe Mines and Qatar cooperate in African mineral exploration, and Tibet Yulong Copper's technical transformation project is put into operation [43][44] - The Fed's dovish stance has a wavering impact on copper prices, and domestic inventory accumulation has slowed down [44] - Investment advice: For single - side trading, copper prices will oscillate at a high level in the short term; for arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach [45] 2.10 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Russia's Tuapse refinery has resumed operation, and there are uncertainties in the Russia - Ukraine negotiation [46] - Oil prices are oscillating, and in the long term, trade flows may recover, but there is a possibility of short - term supply reduction [47] - Investment advice: Oil prices will maintain an oscillatory trend in the short term [48] 2.11 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - As of November 24, asphalt factory and social inventories decreased, but supply is expected to increase [49] - The asphalt market fundamentals are difficult to improve substantially, and it will maintain an oscillatory adjustment in the short term [49] - Investment advice: Asphalt will oscillate in the short term [50] 2.12 Energy Chemicals (Methanol) - On November 24, methanol prices in the Taicang market rose sharply due to news of Iranian plant shutdowns [51][52] - The current price increase is a rebound, and the 01 contract fundamentals will not change significantly [52] - Investment advice: Maintain the view of short - selling after the rebound and wait for a better entry opportunity [52] 2.13 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - On November 24, the price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong decreased, and downstream demand did not improve [53] - Supply is sufficient, and demand is weak, with no positive support in the future [53] - Investment advice: The caustic soda market will remain weak in the short term, and pay attention to supply reduction due to profit compression [54] 2.14 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - On November 24, the PVC powder market price oscillated strongly, but downstream procurement was inactive [55] - PVC supply is expected to increase, and demand is restricted by the real - estate market, but the export potential pressure has dissipated [56] - Investment advice: Adopt a short - selling approach for near - term contracts and consider long - term layout for far - term contracts [56] 2.15 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - In October 2025, urea imports increased by 10.29% month - on - month, and exports decreased by 12.30% month - on - month [58] - Urea prices are oscillating, and inventory is decreasing. Supply may increase in the short term, and demand is slightly accelerating [59] - Investment advice: The 01 contract will operate in the range of 1560 - 1760 yuan/ton, and inventory data is an important reference [60] 2.16 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - As of November 24, the pure benzene inventory in East China ports increased, and the supply - demand situation has limited marginal changes [61][62] - The styrene market is affected by overseas markets, and the upward space is limited [62] - Investment advice: The market is under pressure due to overseas oil - blending logic weakening and port inventory accumulation [63] 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - As of November 24, soda ash factory inventory decreased, and the futures price rose slightly [64] - Soda ash supply is expected to increase, and demand is average. The spot price provides some support [64] - Investment advice: In the short term, there is some support, but in the medium term, adopt a bearish approach and short - sell far - term contracts at high prices [64] 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - On November 24, the price of float glass in the Shahe market decreased slightly, but the futures price rose due to production line shutdown news [65] - Glass valuation is low, and the 01 contract is under pressure, but there is a risk of short - covering rebound [65] - Investment advice: Pay attention to the support around 950 yuan/ton for the 01 contract and the risk of short - covering rebound [65]

周度报告——光伏玻璃 行业重回亏损阶段，库存压力持续增长 上周光伏玻璃供给端保持稳定，暂无厂家冷修或点火。目前国内 光伏玻璃在产产能 89380 吨/天，环比持平，产能利用率 67.71%， 亦环比持平。预计本月底前有单座窑炉存在冷修预期，供给将开 始下行。目前行业重回亏损阶段，各生产企业压力较大。 能 源 化 目前光伏玻璃需求表现仍偏弱，多家企业反馈订单不足情况。主 要因为下游组件端近期存在抬价情况，而终端电站较难接受，上 下游持续博弈，导致组件厂家的光伏玻璃拿货量减少。 工 上周光伏玻璃厂家库存继续增长，预计短期需求弱势难改，库存 量将持续上行。 上周光伏玻璃行业毛利率继续走弱，目前毛利率约为-2.03%。当 前天然气陆续开始执行冬气价，成本有所上涨，而光伏玻璃价格 预期下行，行业重回亏损阶段。 ★ 供需分析： 由于光伏玻璃基本面表现偏弱，后期不排除价格继续调整的可 能。 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025 年 11 月 24 日 ★光伏玻璃基本面周度表现（截至 2025/11/21 当周）： 截至 11 月 21 日，国内光伏玻璃 2.0mm 镀膜（面板）主流价格 为 13 元/平方米，环比上 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The progress of the Russia-Ukraine solution proposed by the US is limited, with short - term market risk appetite stabilizing and the US dollar showing a volatile trend [2][15]. - The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut is fermenting, the market sentiment is stabilizing, but concerns about the AI bubble remain. The US stock market rebounds, but the technology sector lags in gains [3]. - Although the A - share market has experienced a significant correction, it is expected to stabilize the decline in the future due to the easing of US liquidity expectations, support for AI performance, and China's policy support for the stock market [4]. - The prices of various commodities show different trends. For example, steel prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term; oil prices continue to decline; and the prices of some agricultural products are affected by factors such as production volume and policy [5][6]. Summaries by Directory 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - New York Fed President Williams said there is room for an interest rate cut in December, and the Russian central bank sold some physical gold reserves. Short - term gold prices are expected to continue to fluctuate, with a risk of decline [11]. - Investment advice: Be cautious of the risk of decline in the short - term volatile gold market [12]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US is reported to be ready to take action against Venezuela, and the European leaders think the US's Russia - Ukraine peace plan needs improvement. The US - Ukraine Geneva talks are considered "fruitful", but the Russia - Ukraine solution has limited progress, and the US dollar is expected to fluctuate in the short term [13][14][15]. - Investment advice: The US dollar index is expected to fluctuate in the short term [16]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Fed officials have different views on the December interest rate cut. The US service industry growth accelerated in November, while the manufacturing industry slowed down. The market's expectation of an interest rate cut has increased, and the US stock market is expected to fluctuate upward after the market volatility decreases [17][18]. - Investment advice: Be less pessimistic about the US stock market at the end of the year, and wait for the market volatility to decrease [19]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The Trump administration may approve Nvidia's sales of some AI chips to China, and the Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development held a national urban renewal work promotion meeting. The A - share market is expected to stabilize the decline [20][21]. - Investment advice: There may be a small rebound in the short term, but a trend - following opportunity requires more policy changes [22]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted a 375 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation. The bond market is affected by factors such as the redemption pressure of structured products and concerns about the stock market rebound. The bond market is expected to turn from volatile to bearish, and short - term short - selling strategies are recommended [23][24]. - Investment advice: The bond market may turn bearish, and short - term short - selling strategies can be considered [25]. 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills last week was 2.3344 million tons, and it is expected to slightly decrease this week. The supply of soybean meal is sufficient, and the cost and supply - demand situation jointly affect the price. - Investment advice: The soybean meal market is currently "supported by cost and suppressed by supply - demand", and continue to pay attention to China's soybean procurement and South American production expectations [26]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The US Department of Energy reorganized to prioritize fossil fuels and nuclear energy. From November 1 to 20, the production of Malaysian palm oil increased by 10.32% month - on - month. - Investment advice: For palm oil, wait and see on the long - short side and consider 1 - 5 reverse spread opportunities; for rapeseed oil, the overall trend is expected to be weakly volatile [27][28][29]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - In October 2025, China's imports of syrup and premixed powder decreased year - on - year. Indian sugar mills are gradually starting to crush, and the NFCSF urges the Indian government to raise the minimum sugar selling price. - Investment advice: Do not be optimistic about the downside space of ICE raw sugar and Zhengzhou sugar's January contract, and be cautious about short - selling [30][33][34]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - In October 2025, China's cotton imports decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year, while cotton yarn imports increased. The US cotton export sign - up continued to rise. - Investment advice: Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with an estimated range of 13,300 - 13,800 yuan; be cautiously optimistic in the long term and wait for opportunities to go long on dips [35][39][41]. 2.5 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - In 2025, China's long - product exports to Saudi Arabia almost doubled. In October, the global crude steel production was 143.3 million tons. - Investment advice: Adopt a volatile mindset when dealing with steel prices [42][44][46]. 2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The price difference between corn starch and tapioca starch widened. - Investment advice: The price difference is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and band trading is recommended [47][48][49]. 2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The corn selling progress in Northeast and North China is faster than the same period last year. - Investment advice: Corn prices are expected to remain high and volatile in the short term. Wait and see for the near - month contracts and do not short them for now [50][52]. 2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Vedanta plans to invest $2 billion in Saudi copper and gold resources, and China Non - Ferrous Mining's Qianbixi Southeast Orebody is temporarily shut down. European copper manufacturers warn of a copper shortage. - Investment advice: Copper prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term. Consider going long on dips and wait and see for arbitrage [53][55][56]. 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Two leading silicon wafer companies lowered their quotes. The polysilicon market is affected by factors such as policy and demand. - Investment advice: The futures main contract of polysilicon may operate between 50,000 - 56,000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to range trading opportunities [57][59]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The shipments of northern silicon enterprises increased. The export of industrial silicon decreased more than expected. - Investment advice: The industrial silicon market may fluctuate between 8,800 - 9,500 yuan/ton in the short term. Pay attention to range trading opportunities [60][61]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Ruitai New Materials plans to jointly invest 200 million yuan in Terui Lianteng. The futures price limit - down due to regulatory measures. - Investment advice: The short - term futures price may face pressure. Consider short - selling on rallies with a light position [62][64]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Some nickel intermediate product projects in an Indonesian park are expected to reduce production. - Investment advice: Existing short - positions can gradually take profits, and consider going long on dips with a light position. Evaluate the resource contraction in Indonesia in the medium term [66][67]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The Garpenberg mine in Sweden was approved to expand its environmental permit. The LME lead inventory increased. - Investment advice: Take profits at low levels in the short term for the long - short side; wait and see for arbitrage and cross - market trading [68][69][70]. 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME 0 - 3 zinc premium is high, and the Garpenberg mine in Sweden was approved to expand its environmental permit. - Investment advice: Wait and see on the long - short side; hold long - spread positions for calendar spread arbitrage and short - spread positions for cross - market arbitrage in the short term [71][72]. 2.15 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - On November 21, the closing price of the EUA main contract was 80.41 euros/ton. - Investment advice: The EU carbon price is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term [73][74]. 2.16 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The number of US oil rigs increased. Oil prices continued to decline. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the prospects of the Russia - Ukraine negotiations. Oil prices are expected to remain weakly volatile in the short term [75][76]. 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The prices of different pulp varieties in the import market showed different trends. - Investment advice: The pulp market is expected to fluctuate in the future [77]. 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotes of bottle chip factories were mostly lowered. - Investment advice: The short - term supply - demand contradiction of bottle chips is not prominent, and the absolute price mainly follows the fluctuations of polyester raw materials [78][81]. 2.19 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The price of soda ash in the South China market was stable on November 21. - Investment advice: In the short term, the soda ash market has certain support; in the medium term, adopt a bearish mindset and consider short - selling far - month contracts on rallies [82]. 2.20 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in the Shahe market decreased on November 21. - Investment advice: The January contract of float glass is under pressure. Pay attention to the support at 950 yuan/ton and the risk of short - covering rebounds caused by news [83][84].