Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend rating for treasury bonds is "oscillation" [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Affected by the escalation of the Sino-US trade war, treasury bond futures will strengthen in the short term, and the curve is expected to flatten. However, policies such as the new fund fee regulations have not been implemented, and the stock-bond pattern has changed, so the bond market is unlikely to have a trend of strengthening [2][13] Summary According to the Directory 1. One-week Review and Views 1.1 This Week's Trend Review - From October 6th to 12th, treasury bond futures oscillated. On Thursday, due to the strong overseas risk appetite during the holiday, the bond market was weak in the morning, but it rose overall throughout the day. On Friday, the bond market sentiment was okay in the morning, but the issuance of the 50-year ultra-long special treasury bonds was poor at noon, causing treasury bond futures to decline. On Saturday, the trade war escalated again, and the spot bond yields of treasury bonds dropped significantly. As of October 10th, the settlement prices of the main contracts of 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year treasury bond futures were 102.352, 105.655, 107.960, and 114.020 yuan respectively, with changes of -0.022, +0.000, +0.075, and +0.020 yuan compared to the previous weekend [1][11] 1.2 Next Week's Views - After the holiday, the bond market sentiment improved compared to late September, with 7 - 10Y varieties performing strongly. Affected by the escalation of the Sino-US trade war, treasury bond futures will strengthen in the short term, and the curve is expected to flatten. However, policies such as the new fund fee regulations have not been implemented, and the bond market is unlikely to have a trend of strengthening. The Sino-US trade conflict has heated up again, and treasury bonds will have a short-term favorable period. This round of the treasury bond's upward trend may not be "one-step", and there may still be some room for increase in the short term [2][13] 2. Weekly Observation of Interest Rate Bonds 2.1 Primary Market - This week, 14 interest rate bonds were issued, with a total issuance volume of 286.254 billion yuan and a net financing amount of 193.297 billion yuan, an increase of 213.981 billion yuan and 142.396 billion yuan respectively compared to last week. Two local government bonds were issued, with a total issuance volume of 10.254 billion yuan and a net financing amount of -24.565 billion yuan, a decrease of 62.019 billion yuan and 87.766 billion yuan respectively compared to last week. 158 interbank certificates of deposit were issued, with a total issuance volume of 230.880 billion yuan and a net financing amount of 95.930 billion yuan, an increase of 193.590 billion yuan and 227.480 billion yuan respectively compared to last week [20] 2.2 Secondary Market - The yields of treasury bonds showed a differentiated trend. As of October 10th, the yields of 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year treasury bonds were 1.50%, 1.61%, 1.85%, and 2.28% respectively, with changes of +0.80, -0.14, -1.08, and +5.65 bp compared to the previous weekend. The spreads of 10Y - 1Y and 10Y - 5Y narrowed, while the spread of 30Y - 10Y widened. The yields of 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year policy bank bonds were 1.60%, 1.80%, and 2.04% respectively, with changes of -5.26, -2.26, and +0.89 bp compared to the previous weekend [25] 3. Treasury Bond Futures 3.1 Price, Transaction, and Position - Treasury bond futures oscillated. As of October 10th, the settlement prices of the main contracts of 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year treasury bond futures were 102.352, 105.655, 107.960, and 114.020 yuan respectively, with changes of -0.022, +0.000, +0.075, and +0.020 yuan compared to the previous weekend. The trading volumes of 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year treasury bond futures this week were 32,254, 55,914, 78,817, and 116,178 lots respectively, with changes of +1,706, -15,123, -18,511, and -30,040 lots compared to last week. The positions of 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year treasury bond futures this week were 74,944, 147,637, 251,416, and 173,754 lots respectively, with changes of -5,116, -1,919, +2,992, and +2,975 lots compared to last week [33][36] 3.2 Basis and IRR - The short-selling hedging strategy is considered to be closed. The trade conflict has heated up, and the market risk preference is expected to weaken in the short term, and treasury bond futures will have a short-term favorable period. However, the market's negative factors have not been fully exhausted, and the new fund fee regulations are likely to be implemented this year, which will still disturb the bond market. There are no obvious positive arbitrage opportunities this week [40] 3.3 Inter-period and Inter-variety Spreads - As of October 10th, the inter-period price differences of the 2512 - 2603 contracts of 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year treasury bond futures were +0.088, +0.100, +0.295, and +0.330 yuan respectively, with changes of -0.004, -0.030, -0.025, and -0.010 yuan compared to the previous weekend [44] 4. Weekly Observation of the Funding Situation - This week, the central bank conducted 113.70 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations, and due to 266.33 billion yuan of reverse repurchase expiring, a net withdrawal of 152.63 billion yuan was achieved. As of October 10th, R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1-week were 1.49%, 1.42%, 1.32%, and 1.45% respectively, with changes of -12.68, -1.47, -6.00, and +4.60 bp compared to the previous weekend. The average daily trading volume of interbank pledged repurchase this week was 7.53 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.26 trillion yuan compared to last week, and the overnight proportion was 61.77%, lower than the previous week's level [48][50][52] 5. Weekly Overseas Observation - The US dollar index strengthened, and the yield of 10Y US treasury bonds declined. As of October 10th, the US dollar index rose 1.13% to 98.8223 compared to the previous weekend; the yield of 10Y US treasury bonds was reported at 4.05%, a decrease of 8 bp compared to the previous weekend; the spread between Chinese and US 10Y treasury bonds was inverted by 219.9 bp. During the holiday, the US government shutdown led to an increase in market risk aversion, and the expectation of interest rate cuts increased. After the holiday, the Sino-US trade conflict escalated again [58] 6. Weekly Observation of High-Frequency Inflation Data - Industrial product prices showed a mixed trend. As of October 10th, the Nanhua Industrial Product Index, the metal index, and the energy and chemical index were 3,573.12, 6,449.77, and 1,604.70 points respectively, with changes of -0.72, +100.37, and -26.52 points compared to the previous weekend. Agricultural product prices also showed a mixed trend. As of October 10th, the prices of pork, 28 key vegetables, and 7 key fruits were 18.85, 4.88, and 7.06 yuan/kg respectively, with changes of -0.46, -0.13, and +0.12 yuan/kg compared to the previous weekend [61] 7. Investment Suggestions - The bond market is strengthening in the short term, and it is recommended to take a bullish approach [62]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The gold price may experience a short - term decline due to the end of the Middle - East conflict and the full pricing of positive factors [12][13]. - The US dollar index is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [17][18]. - US stock index futures are likely to maintain a relatively strong trend after the impact of the government shutdown event subsides [21]. - The Shanghai Composite Index is expected to maintain a short - term high - level trend, and it is recommended to allocate stock index futures evenly [26][27]. - Treasury bond futures are expected to oscillate and bottom out in the short term, and it is advisable to lay out medium - term long positions on dips [28][29]. - Palm oil prices are expected to continue to rise due to Indonesia's biodiesel policy [31]. - ICE raw sugar and Zhengzhou sugar are expected to have a weak rebound in the fourth quarter [36][37]. - Steel prices are expected to continue to oscillate, and short - term callback risks need to be noted [39][40]. - The price of thermal coal is expected to continue to decline seasonally [41]. - Iron ore prices are relatively resistant to decline in the short term, but steel mills may face production cut pressure in mid - to late October [42]. - The price of red dates may rebound in the short term, and attention should be paid to the acquisition price in the production area [45]. - The spot price of polysilicon may remain flat, and the price of components is expected to fluctuate in the short term [47][48]. - It is advisable to go long on industrial silicon on dips, but be cautious when chasing highs [52]. - For lead, it is advisable to wait for a pullback to lay out medium - term long positions and pay attention to positive spread arbitrage opportunities [53]. - For zinc, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and there are positive spread arbitrage opportunities [55]. - For lithium carbonate, it is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies and the reverse spread arbitrage opportunity between LC2511 - 2512 [57]. - The copper price is expected to continue to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and it is advisable to take a long - position approach [60][61]. - The downward space of the LPG contract is limited, and it is advisable to pay attention to opportunities to shrink PDH profits [64]. - The CEA price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [66]. - The natural gas price is recommended to be treated with a bearish mindset [68]. - The downward space of the caustic soda futures price may be limited [71]. - The pulp market is expected to oscillate weakly [73]. - The PVC price is difficult to decline further, and attention should be paid to domestic policy benefits [76]. - The supply - demand contradiction of bottle chips may accumulate in the fourth quarter, and there is pressure on processing fees [78]. - It is advisable to stop profiting on short positions of urea gradually [81]. - It is advisable to stop profiting on positions to shrink the styrene - benzene spread [83]. - It is advisable to short sell soda ash on rallies and pay attention to supply - side disturbances [85]. - It is recommended to pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of going long on glass 2601 and shorting soda ash 2601 [86]. - The container freight rate index 12 - contract is recommended to be treated with an oscillating mindset [88][89]. 3. Summaries by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The Middle - East cease - fire agreement and full pricing of positive factors lead to a high - level correction of gold prices. Gold prices may fall due to short - term profit - taking by bulls [12][13]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump may impose more sanctions on Russia, and the Fed is cautious about further interest rate cuts. The US dollar index is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [14][17][18]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - TSMC's Q3 revenue exceeded expectations. Amid the vacuum of macro data, the market is sensitive to AI industry news. After the impact of the government shutdown event subsides, US stock index futures are expected to maintain a relatively strong trend [19][20][21]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The Shanghai Composite Index broke through 3900 points, reaching a new high in nearly a decade. The stock market showed strong sentiment on the first trading day after the holiday, and it is recommended to allocate stock index futures evenly [22][26][27]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 612 billion yuan. Due to weak terminal demand, the bond market strengthened against the stock market. It is expected to oscillate and bottom out in the short term, and it is advisable to lay out medium - term long positions on dips [28][29]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Indonesia plans to implement the mandatory B50 biodiesel plan next year, which will tighten the global palm oil supply - demand pattern. Palm oil prices are expected to continue to rise [30][31]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Brazil's sugar production was strong in the first half of September, but the high - temperature and drought weather may lead to a decrease in production later. ICE raw sugar and Zhengzhou sugar are expected to have a weak rebound in the fourth quarter [35][36][37]. 3.2.3 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The sales volume of heavy - duty trucks and the CMI index increased in September. After the holiday, the steel price continued to oscillate, and the market entered the peak - season demand verification period. Short - term callback risks need to be noted [38][39][40]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Thermal Coal) - The supply of thermal coal was not loose during the National Day, but the demand was seasonally weak. The price is expected to continue to decline seasonally [41]. 3.2.5 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Brazilian mining company Minerita signed a contract with Metso. Iron ore prices are relatively resistant to decline in the short term, but steel mills may face production cut pressure in mid - to late October [42]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - Red dates in Xinjiang are entering the drying period. The price of the futures main contract rose after the holiday. The current inventory is at a relatively high level, and the price may rebound in the short term [43][44][45]. 3.2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - India imposed anti - dumping duties on Chinese solar cells and components. The polysilicon spot price may remain flat, and the component price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [46][47][48]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - Two departments aimed to regulate price competition. The seasonal inventory change of industrial silicon is not obvious. It is advisable to go long on dips, but be cautious when chasing highs [50][52]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead was at a discount, and the domestic lead inventory decreased. The price of lead is expected to oscillate and rise. It is advisable to wait for a pullback to lay out medium - term long positions and pay attention to positive spread arbitrage opportunities [53]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc was at a premium, and the domestic zinc inventory decreased slightly. The zinc price is recommended to be treated with a wait - and - see attitude in the short term, and there are positive spread arbitrage opportunities [54][55]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Zangge Mining's subsidiary obtained mining rights. The lithium carbonate market is in a situation of strong reality and weak expectation. It is advisable to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies and the reverse spread arbitrage opportunity between LC2511 - 2512 [56][57]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Indonesia introduced policies to help SMEs obtain mining rights, and Teck Resources lowered its copper production forecast. The copper price is expected to continue to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and it is advisable to take a long - position approach [58][59][60]. 3.2.13 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The price of Middle - East LPG changed, and some PDH devices had maintenance plans. The downward space of the LPG contract is limited, and it is advisable to pay attention to opportunities to shrink PDH profits [62][63][64]. 3.2.14 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA price increased slightly. The carbon market supply - demand structure is balanced and loose, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [65][66]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Natural Gas) - The US natural gas inventory increased. The natural gas price is recommended to be treated with a bearish mindset [67][68]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong was adjusted flexibly after the holiday. The downward space of the caustic soda futures price may be limited [70][71]. 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp was mostly stable. The pulp market is expected to oscillate weakly [72][73]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC price decreased. The price is difficult to decline further, and attention should be paid to domestic policy benefits [74][76]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export price of bottle chips was adjusted slightly. The supply - demand contradiction of bottle chips may accumulate in the fourth quarter, and there is pressure on processing fees [77][78]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The urea enterprise inventory increased. It is advisable to stop profiting on short positions of urea gradually [79][81]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The inventory of styrene in Jiangsu ports increased. It is advisable to stop profiting on positions to shrink the styrene - benzene spread [82][83]. 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The inventory of soda ash manufacturers increased. It is advisable to short sell soda ash on rallies and pay attention to supply - side disturbances [84][85]. 3.2.23 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The inventory of float glass manufacturers increased significantly. It is recommended to pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of going long on glass 2601 and shorting soda ash 2601 [85][86]. 3.2.24 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - The throughput of major ports increased from January to August. The container freight rate index 12 - contract is recommended to be treated with an oscillating mindset [87][88][89].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed may further ease monetary policy this year, which has an impact on various financial and commodity markets [1][11]. - During the National Day holiday, the cross - regional passenger flow in China increased by 6.2% year - on - year, and Chinese equity assets rose slightly but underperformed globally [2]. - The supply side is the key factor affecting the price trends of various commodities, and different commodities face different supply and demand situations [3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Trump announced that Israel and Hamas signed the first phase of the peace plan, and the Fed's meeting minutes indicated that further easing might be appropriate this year [10][11]. - Gold prices rose to a record high of $4059 and then fell back, increasing by about 5% during the holiday due to risk - aversion sentiment. Short - term, the positive factors are fully priced, and there is a risk of a pullback [11]. - Investment advice: Be cautious of the risk of a decline due to long - position profit - taking after the price hits a new high [12]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Macron plans to appoint a new prime minister, Trump said Israel and Hamas reached an agreement on hostage release and troop withdrawal, and the Fed's interest - rate meeting minutes showed internal differences on the number of interest - rate cuts [13][14][15]. - The US dollar index will fluctuate in the short term, and the market's risk appetite continues to rise [16][17]. - Investment advice: The US dollar index will remain volatile in the short term [18]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Meta and Apple are about to reach a settlement with the EU Commission on antitrust cases, and the US Senate rejected the bipartisan temporary appropriation bill again [19][20]. - The Fed's meeting minutes showed internal differences among officials, but the market's optimistic sentiment towards AI and interest - rate cuts remains high, and the market is expected to remain strong [21]. - Investment advice: The US stock market is expected to maintain a strong trend after a small adjustment [22]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - China's Ambassador to the US called for expanding China - US cooperation, and the cross - regional passenger flow during the National Day holiday increased by 6.2% year - on - year [23][24]. - Chinese equity assets rose slightly during the holiday but underperformed globally. The market is still in a structural pattern, and the rhythm is more important than the position [25][26]. - Investment advice: The market is in a structural pattern, and rhythm is more important than position [26]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The manufacturing PMI in September was 49.8%, and the central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 2422 billion yuan [27][28]. - The bond market is expected to fluctuate in the first half of October and may strengthen after the 14th Five - Year Plan policies are implemented [28]. - Investment advice: The bond market is expected to fluctuate and bottom out in the short term. Short - term trading should be cautious, and medium - term long positions can be considered on dips [28]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Indonesia is about to start the B50 road test [29]. - During the holiday, Malaysian palm oil led the rise in the overseas oil market. The market predicts that Malaysia's palm oil inventory will decline slightly in September [30]. - Investment advice: The domestic market is expected to make up for the rise after the holiday, but be cautious of a pullback after a high opening. In the long - term, go long after the clear signal of production reduction in the producing areas in the fourth quarter [30]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The safety inspection in the Ordos steam coal market remains strict, and the coal price is expected to remain weak seasonally in October [31]. - Investment advice: The coal price is expected to remain weak in October, and pay attention to the policy game after the long - term agreement price [31]. 3.2.3 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Japan's Nippon Steel and Champion Iron are promoting the Kami iron ore project [32]. - During the holiday, the iron ore price fluctuated narrowly around $104. The downstream finished - product market was weak, and the iron ore price is expected to continue to fluctuate narrowly [32][33]. - Investment advice: The iron ore price is expected to continue to fluctuate narrowly [33]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - In September, China's soybean imports and crushing volume decreased month - on - month, and the US soybean old - crop inventory as of September 1 was lower than expected [34][35]. - The Brazilian soybean sowing progress reached 8.2% as of October 4. The CBOT soybean price rose slightly during the holiday. The US government shutdown suspended the release of relevant reports [37]. - Investment advice: The soybean meal price is expected to fluctuate temporarily, and Sino - US relations are the main influencing factor [37]. 3.2.5 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The EU plans to impose a 50% tariff on steel imports outside the quota [40]. - During the holiday, the overseas metal prices rose slightly, and the steel price is expected to rise slightly after the holiday, but the inventory accumulation during the holiday will suppress the spot price. Pay attention to the terminal demand [40]. - Investment advice: Treat the market with a range - bound mindset after the holiday and pay attention to the demand intensity [41]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - The red date price in the Guangzhou Ruyifang market was stable, and the futures price of the main contract CJ601 fell [42]. - The supply in Xinjiang is normal, and the demand in the north - south distribution areas is stable. The new - season output and old - crop inventory are still being debated [42]. - Investment advice: Hold a wait - and - see attitude or conduct short - term operations in the short term, and pay attention to the fruit development in the producing areas and downstream consumption [42]. 3.2.7 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - The ICSG predicts that the global copper mine production will increase by 1.4% in 2025 and 2.3% in 2026, and there will be a supply surplus in 2025 and a shortage in 2026 [43][44]. - Teck Resources lowered its copper production forecast for its Chilean flagship mine, and Aurubis raised the European copper premium for 2026 [45][46]. - Investment advice: Adopt a long - position strategy unilaterally, and pay attention to the domestic - foreign positive arbitrage [47]. 3.2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The resumption of production of a small lead - zinc mine in Fujian was postponed to the end of October [48]. - The supply of lead has improved, and the demand is stable. The Shanghai lead price may fluctuate upward [50]. - Investment advice: Go long on dips unilaterally and pay attention to the positive arbitrage of the monthly spread [50]. 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - 29Metals withdrew its zinc production guidance due to an earthquake, and the resumption of production of a small lead - zinc mine in Fujian was postponed to the end of October [51][52]. - The LME zinc price is supported, and the domestic zinc export window may open. The inventory is expected to rise after the holiday [53]. - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see attitude unilaterally, and pay attention to the medium - term positive arbitrage opportunity brought by the opening of the export window [53]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The expansion project of Xinjiang Dongfang Hope New Energy Co., Ltd.'s polysilicon plant is under environmental protection acceptance [54][55]. - The polysilicon price may remain flat, and the component price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [55][56]. - Investment advice: The market may fluctuate widely between 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton in October. Pay attention to the range - bound operation opportunities [57]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The SASAC called for抵制 "involution - style" competition [58]. - The inventory of industrial silicon is expected to accumulate slightly in September - October and decrease slightly in November - December [59]. - Investment advice: It is more cost - effective to go long on dips, but be cautious when chasing the price [59]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Indonesia will re - implement the annual RKAB system in 2026 [60]. - During the holiday, the LME nickel price was strong. The nickel ore price is expected to rise, and the nickel iron and intermediate product prices are expected to remain strong, but the refined nickel inventory is under pressure [61]. - Investment advice: Conduct range - bound trading in the short term, and go long at low levels from a configuration perspective [62]. 3.2.13 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - Saudi Arabia's October CP official prices fell, and the US C3 inventory decreased [63][64]. - The PG price is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term. Pay attention to the start - stop changes of PDH plants after the import cost drops [64]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the start - stop changes of PDH plants after the import cost drops [64]. 3.2.14 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Russia will gradually increase oil production, and the US EIA crude oil inventory increased [65][66]. - International oil prices rebounded after falling during the holiday. The release of supply by oil - producing countries is the key factor affecting the price [66]. - Investment advice: The decline of oil prices depends on whether the supply of oil - producing countries can be effectively released [67]. 3.2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export prices of bottle chip factories were mostly stable, with some slight decreases [68][69]. - The polyester raw material prices fell, and the bottle chip prices were under pressure. The demand is expected to be weak in the long term [70]. - Investment advice: The absolute price of bottle chips is at a low level, and the inventory of factories has decreased. Pay attention to the sustainability of production cuts and new capacity launches [70]. 3.2.16 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - Maersk said that the freight volume from China to Latin America and Africa has increased [71]. - During the National Day holiday, the spot index fell below 1050, and the short - term market may be weak. Pay attention to the low - buying opportunities after the over - decline of the 12 - contract [71]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the low - buying opportunities after the over - decline of the 12 - contract [72].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for lithium carbonate is "Oscillating" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term prices of lithium carbonate are supported by destocking, but it's difficult to drive prices up independently. In the long - term, the supply side is expected to remain high or increase, while the demand side faces downward pressure [2][17] - It is recommended to focus on short - selling opportunities when prices are high and the reverse spread opportunity between LC2511 and LC2512 [3][17] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chile's September Shipment Continued to Decline, and Destocking Supported Short - term Prices - Before the holiday (09/22 - 09/30), lithium salt prices showed a weak oscillation. LC2510's closing price dropped 1.4% month - on - month to 72,700 yuan/ton, and LC2511's closing price dropped 1.6% month - on - month to 72,800 yuan/ton. The average spot prices of SMM battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased 0.1% month - on - month to 73,600 and 71,300 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of lithium hydroxide slightly decreased within the week. The average prices of SMM coarse - grained and micronized battery - grade lithium hydroxide dropped 0.6% and 0.5% month - on - month to 73,600 and 78,600 yuan/ton respectively. The electric - industrial price difference remained flat at 2,300 yuan/ton, and the premium of battery - grade lithium hydroxide over battery - grade lithium carbonate narrowed to near 0 [1][10] - In September, Chile exported a total of 18,300 tons of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, a 9% month - on - month and 4% year - on - year decrease. Exports to China were 11,100 tons, a 15% month - on - month and 33% year - on - year decrease, and the arrival volume in October is expected to continue to decline. From January to September, Chile exported a total of 188,000 tons of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, a 4% year - on - year decrease. Exports to China were 121,000 tons, a 17% year - on - year decrease. In terms of lithium sulfate, in September, Chile shipped 8,400 tons (4,200 tons LCE) of lithium sulfate to China, a 21% month - on - month and 9% year - on - year increase. From January to September, a total of 70,000 tons (35,000 tons LCE) of lithium sulfate were shipped to China, a 101% year - on - year increase [2][11] 3.2 Weekly Industry News Review - Salt Lake Co., Ltd.'s 40,000 - ton/year basic lithium salt integration project started trial production and produced qualified battery - grade lithium carbonate products, which will increase the company's lithium salt production capacity [18] - Tianqi Lithium's 30,000 - ton battery - grade lithium hydroxide project was officially completed and put into operation [18] - Core Lithium terminated the last off - take agreement of the Finniss lithium project, paying $2 million to release the future production capacity of the project [18] - Liontown Resources reached an agreement with Tesla to modify the pricing mechanism in the long - term off - take agreement [19] - The US government acquired a 5% stake in Lithium Americas and a 5% stake in its joint project with General Motors, and Lithium Americas will draw $435 million from a previously announced $2.26 billion loan [19] - Eight lithium mines in Yichun have submitted relevant reports, and the possibility of suspension of production of producing mines is low [20][21] 3.3 Key High - frequency Data Monitoring of the Industrial Chain 3.3.1 Resource End: Spot Quotes of Lithium Concentrate Remained Stable - The spot price of lithium concentrate remained stable, with the average spot price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) at $858/ton, a 0.1% month - on - month decrease [11] 3.3.2 Lithium Salt: The Market Was Weakly Oscillating - The prices of lithium carbonate futures and spot showed a weak oscillation. The closing prices of LC2510 and LC2511 decreased month - on - month, while the average spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased slightly. The price of lithium hydroxide slightly decreased [1][10][11] 3.3.3 Downstream Intermediates: Quotes Slightly Declined - The prices of downstream intermediate products such as lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and cobalt acid lithium showed different degrees of changes, with some prices rising slightly and some remaining stable [11] 3.3.4 Terminal: The Installation Proportion of Lithium Iron Phosphate in August Further Increased - In August, the installation proportion of lithium iron phosphate in power batteries further increased [46]

周度报告—工业硅/多晶硅 工业硅大厂复产，多晶硅关注平台公司进展 | [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] | 工业硅：震荡/多晶硅：震荡 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 8 | 年 | 10 | 月 | 日 | [★Ta工bl业e_硅Summary] 有 色 根据铁合金在线，截至 9 月底，新疆增开 9 台，其中新疆大厂 增开 7 台，四川减少 5 台，云南减少 1 台。南方或将在 10 月 底进入枯水期少量硅厂开始减产，云南开工或下降到 20 余 台，四川开工或下降至 35 台左右。新疆大厂或有继续开炉计 划。SMM 工业硅社会库存环比持平，样本工厂库存环比-1.24 万吨。国庆节前下游备货，但仍按刚需采购为主，适量多备一 周库存。从静态平衡表推测，以新疆大厂东部基地后续开炉 50 台计算，则 9-10 月工业硅或合计累库约 4 万吨，11-12 月枯水 期合计去库约 5 万吨。此累库和去库体量对于工业硅来说都并 不明显。若新疆大厂东部基地开至 60 台，则 11 月工业硅难以 去库、12 月微量去库。 ★多晶硅 ...

25Q4：有望出现熊市周期中的弱反弹行情 东证衍生品研究院农产品组 方慧玲 2025年9月 方慧玲 首席农产品分析师 从业资格号： F3039861 投资咨询号： Z0010565 Tel: 021-63325888-2737 Email:huiling.fang@orientfutures.com 行情回顾：25Q3，内盘延续震荡下滑，外盘偏弱震荡为主 内外盘主力合约走势 15.0 16.0 17.0 18.0 19.0 20.0 21.0 22.0 23.0 24.0 5,300 5,400 5,500 5,600 5,700 5,800 5,900 6,000 6,100 6,200 6,300 24/10 24/11 24/12 25/01 25/02 25/03 25/04 25/05 25/06 25/07 25/08 25/09 元/吨 美分/磅 郑糖主力合约 ICE原糖主力（右轴） 外盘偏弱震荡为主，主力合约运行于15-17美分/磅。 • 三季度，巴西进入压榨高峰期，且糖厂将甘蔗制糖比维持在创纪 录高位水平，巴西糖生产供应强劲，而国际需求平淡，导致国际 贸易流处于供应过剩的格局中，再加上东南亚 ...

季度报告-丙烯 交割博弈对盘面价格的影响或大于基本面 [★Ta供bl给e_端Su：mm短a期ry]供应回归变数不大，临近交割装置扰动或有增加 8 月中旬至今的超预期检修与下游开工的相对刚性共同营造了丙 烯偏强的估值，由于目前装置利润距离亏损性停车还较远，供应 回归变数不大，叠加裕龙石化装置提前投产，按照现有的停产计 划，10 月丙烯供给将转为宽松。11-12 月由于原料端存旺季预期、 独立装置存检修预期、首个合约存扰动预期，叠加进口窗口的关 闭与韩国装置的检修，我们预计丙烯供给将阶段性偏紧。 ★需求端：用量支撑强，价格支撑弱 能 源 化 工 由于聚丙烯在丙烯下游需求中占比高，而且今年供给增速显著偏 高，因此丙烯四季度需求的关键变量在于聚丙烯。我们发现终端 内需高企是支撑聚丙烯前三季度高产量的关键因素，而且尽管内 需的扩张带有内卷色彩，但从汽车行业的产销情况来看，内卷短 期内尚可维持，四季度丙烯需求预计仍将维持高增速。不过内卷 下的高需求增速对 PP 的价格提振效果有限，将间接压制丙烯价 格上限。 ★关于丙烯期货首次交割的探讨 尽管丙烯交割规则明显有利于空头，但我们反而认为在首次交割 的博弈中，应该以多头思路为 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Oscillation [1] - Silver: Oscillation [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core driving factors for the rise in gold prices, such as the US government debt issue and the long - term logic of de - dollarization trading, remain intact, determining the bull market pattern of gold. The issue of the Fed's independence still has room to ferment in the long run, which will push up the gold price when it resonates with other assets. In the fourth quarter, gold is expected to enter an oscillation phase [4]. - The silver price increase is basically in place. In the fourth quarter, the London silver is expected to trade in the range of $40 - 50 per ounce, and the main contract of Shanghai silver in the range of 9000 - 12000 yuan per kilogram [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Third - quarter Gold Market Review - After the gold price rose to a maximum of $3500 per ounce due to tariffs in the first half of the year, it entered a range - bound oscillation. From late April to late August, London gold oscillated horizontally in the range of $3100 - 3500 per ounce. A new upward trend started at the end of August. The weak non - farm employment reports from August to September strengthened the market's expectation of Fed rate cuts, driving capital into gold. In September, the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp, entering the second half of the rate - cut cycle. Trump's intervention in the Fed also contributed to the rise in gold prices. In the third quarter, the gold price rose by 16%, with a 11% increase in September alone [13][16]. 3.2 Standing at the Historical High and Looking Ahead 3.2.1 The US Economy Is in a State of Decline but Not in Recession, and Stagflation Needs Further Verification - The US economic growth has gradually slowed down in the first three quarters. Although consumption has some resilience, the economic endogenous expansion momentum is weakening. After the equal - tariff policy was implemented in August, its impact on the real economy remains to be seen. The labor market has weakened significantly in the third quarter, and inflation has stopped falling and rebounded. The potential risk of stagflation has not been ruled out and requires hard data verification [22]. 3.2.2 The Sharp Drop in Employment Data Strengthens the Expectation of Rate Cuts - In the third quarter, the US labor market reached a turning point. The non - farm employment data was significantly revised downwards, and the average non - farm employment increase in the past four months was only 26,000. The employment market has no supply - demand gap, and the unemployment rate may rise further. Most service industries and the manufacturing industry are reducing employment. The market's trust in the data quality of the US Department of Labor is also declining [34]. 3.2.3 Inflation Rebounds and Faces Upward Risks - Since the second half of 2024, US inflation has stopped falling and rebounded. In the third quarter of 2025, inflation rebounded again. Although the impact of tariffs has not fully manifested, core inflation still has upward space. In August, the core PCE increased to 2.9% year - on - year [45]. 3.3 The Fed's Independence Is Disturbed, and There Are Concerns about Fiscal Deficit Monetization 3.3.1 The Fed Resumes Rate Cuts, and Its Independence Is Worrisome - In the third quarter, after the significant decline in non - farm employment data, the Fed turned dovish and cut interest rates in September. The market expects the Fed to cut rates twice more in the fourth quarter. The internal division between hawks and doves in the Fed has intensified. Trump's interference in the Fed's personnel has undermined the Fed's independence, which may drive up the gold price in the long run [52][55]. 3.3.2 The US Fiscal Deficit Continues to Expand, and the Logic of Gold as a Credit Hedge Remains - In the 2025 fiscal year, the US fiscal deficit has continued to grow, reaching $1.8 trillion as of August, and the deficit - to - GDP ratio has expanded to - 6.6%. The Trump administration aims to maintain economic growth, which requires continued fiscal expansion and rate cuts. The US government debt problem is difficult to solve quickly, and the combination of high inflation and low interest rates will lead to a decline in the US dollar's credit, making the logic of going long on gold firm [60][65]. 3.3.3 Overseas Markets Increased Their Allocation of Gold in the Third Quarter - In the process of the continuous rise in the gold price, there has been a rotation in the allocation of gold between overseas and Chinese markets. In the third quarter, due to the weakening of the US employment market, the strengthening of rate - cut expectations, and the outbreak of the Fed's independence issue, overseas markets increased their long - position sentiment towards gold. The North American gold ETF holdings increased significantly, while the domestic market showed less enthusiasm for gold [69][70]. 3.4 Investment Recommendations - For the fourth quarter, the London gold is expected to trade in the range of $3400 - 4000 per ounce, and the main contract of Shanghai gold in the range of 800 - 900 yuan per gram. The domestic gold is expected to remain at a discount to overseas gold. The London silver is expected to trade in the range of $40 - 50 per ounce, and the main contract of Shanghai silver in the range of 9000 - 12000 yuan per kilogram [77].

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Views - In Q4 2025, the cotton market faces significant pressure, but the long - term outlook is not pessimistic. The international market will remain weak in the short - term, while the domestic market, Zhengzhou cotton, will face seasonal supply pressure. However, in the long - run, the prospects for both markets are more positive [1][105]. - For the international market, short - term supply pressure is high due to harvests and slow US cotton export sign - ups. But long - term, cost support and potential changes in trade policies are favorable. For the domestic market, the large expected Xinjiang cotton production in Q4 2025 will test downstream demand, and there is a risk of the price breaking below 13,000 yuan/ton, but there are also factors supporting a rebound [105][106]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Q3 2025 Cotton Market Review - **Domestic Market**: Cotton prices first rose and then fell, shifting from trading the "tight reality" to the "loose expectation". In July, prices rose due to low commercial inventories and market sentiment. From late July to August, prices fluctuated due to hedging pressure. In September, prices declined as the expectation of increased Xinjiang cotton production grew [4]. - **International Market**: It remained weak in the low - level range of 65 - 70 cents/pound. Normal weather during the US cotton growing season and slow export sign - ups due to trade policies led to limited upward movement [5]. 2. Domestic Fundamental Analysis - **Inventory Situation**: As of the end of August, national commercial cotton inventories were 1.4817 million tons, a significant decrease. Xinjiang and inland commercial inventories were at multi - year lows. However, cotton textile enterprises had relatively high industrial inventories, which could meet needs until mid - October when new cotton is expected to be available in large quantities. There were reports of inventory shortages in some inland textile enterprises and a prominent shortage of high - quality cotton [12]. - **New Cotton Yield Estimation**: Domestic institutions expect significant increases in Xinjiang and national cotton production in the 2025/2026 season. The report estimates that Xinjiang's cotton production is likely to reach around 7.5 million tons. If so, the supply of about 8.4 million tons (including import quotas) can basically cover demand. The high - yield expectation has already led to a significant decline in the futures price, and attention should be paid to the actual yield [17][18][19]. - **New Cotton Purchase Expectations**: Ginning mills are cautious about new cotton purchases, with most expecting an opening price below 6.3 yuan/kg. Cotton farmers' psychological price is around 6.3 - 6.5 yuan/kg, and their reluctance to sell has weakened. The pre - sale price of cottonseed is expected to decline to 2.1 - 2.2 yuan/kg during the peak purchase period, still higher than last year. The large pre - sale volume of Xinjiang cotton and high pre - sale basis still exist. There is a possibility of a negative feedback loop between the futures price and the seed cotton purchase price, with the purchase price potentially dropping below 6 yuan/kg, corresponding to the futures price possibly breaking below 13,000 yuan/ton [25][26]. - **Import Situation**: In the 2024/2025 season, cotton imports were 1.05 million tons, a 68% year - on - year decrease.棉纱 imports were 1.41 million tons, a 15.6% year - on - year decrease. In the 2025/2026 season, the import volume of cotton and棉纱 is uncertain, depending on trade negotiations. If the current tariff level between China and the US remains, it will continue to suppress imports [29]. - **Downstream Market**: The downstream textile industry had a lackluster peak season, with low profits for spinning enterprises. Although the profit margin improved in September, it remained low overall. Orders improved seasonally in August but were still weaker than in previous years. The inventory structure of downstream棉纱 was healthy, with continued inventory reduction in September. The load of downstream textile enterprises increased seasonally but was still lower than in previous years [33][40]. - **Terminal Textile and Apparel Market**: In August, textile and apparel exports declined year - on - year and month - on - month. From January to August, cumulative exports decreased slightly. However, China's textile and apparel exports showed resilience, with exports to the Belt and Road countries and the European Union playing important roles. Exports to the US declined significantly. Domestic demand for textile and apparel showed mild growth in the first eight months of 2025, but the growth rate was still relatively low, and the recovery of domestic demand was slow [50][52][66]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The 2024/2025 season had a supply - demand gap of about 600,000 - 700,000 tons. The 2025/2026 season may be a balanced or inventory - accumulating year. The large expected production will test downstream demand in Q4 2025, but the pressure may ease later [69]. - **Future Xinjiang Cotton Production**: There is uncertainty about whether Xinjiang's cotton planting area and production will continue to increase next year. Policy adjustments may occur, and the report believes that production may slightly decline next year due to factors such as possible reduced farmer income and government regulation [73]. 3. International Market Analysis - **US Cotton Situation**: The USDA September report maintained the previous forecast for US cotton supply and demand in the 2025/2026 season, with a tight - balance situation. As of September 21, the US cotton boll opening and harvesting progress was slightly behind last year but in line with the five - year average. Hurricane threats were low, and the weather was favorable for later growth and harvest. US cotton new - crop export sign - ups were slow, and the export demand may remain weak due to trade policy uncertainties [80][84][91]. - **Global Supply - Demand**: The 2025/2026 global cotton supply - demand pattern is relatively balanced. The USDA September report adjusted the supply and demand estimates, narrowing the supply - demand gap. The global market is facing seasonal supply pressure, and future focus will be on trade policies and demand prospects [95]. 4. Market Outlook - **International Market**: In Q4 2025, the international market will remain weak, with the price likely to test the 65 - cent support level. However, in the long - term, the outlook is not pessimistic, as there is cost support and potential positive changes in trade policies [105]. - **Domestic Market**: In Q4 2025, Zhengzhou cotton faces seasonal supply pressure, with a risk of breaking below 13,000 yuan/ton. But after the release of negative factors, downstream restocking may support the price. The long - term outlook is cautiously optimistic [106]. 5. Strategy - Short - and medium - term, it is advisable to sell on rebounds. In the long - term, wait for opportunities to buy at low levels below 13,000 yuan/ton, while closely monitoring macro - level and industrial drivers [108].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Dalio's all - weather strategy's successful replication in China has made investors value the risk - balanced investment concept. The report proposes a benchmark long - only futures - type asset allocation index to achieve a pure risk - parity asset allocation plan through futures [11]. - The all - weather asset allocation futures index aims to build a risk - balanced portfolio adaptable to various economic environments. The risk - parity calculation in this report is based on asset dimensions [11]. - The final all - weather asset allocation index scheme shows good performance, with an annualized return of 11.6% since December 31, 2019, an average maximum drawdown of 5.7%, a Sharpe ratio of 1.96, and a Calmar ratio of 2.03, and a 10.6% return this year [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 About the Research Background of the Futures - Type Asset Allocation Index - **Significance of Building the Index**: It aims to achieve a replicable and risk - balanced asset allocation plan through futures. "All - weather" means building a risk - balanced portfolio adaptable to different economic environments, and "futures - type" emphasizes the high capital efficiency of futures [11][12]. - **Risk - Parity Return Source and Commodity's "Negative Beta"**: Risk - parity returns come from the risk premium of long - position assets and potential re - balancing dividends. Commodity assets show negative correlations with stocks and bonds in some macro - environments, and commodity futures can achieve a combination of beta and alpha returns [13]. - **Research Framework**: First, compare the investment differences between single - variety futures and spot ETFs. Second, replicate existing broad - based commodity indexes and build custom - logic commodity indexes. Finally, discuss the performance of the risk - parity portfolio and related detailed issues [14]. 3.2 Asset Selection of Stocks, Bonds, and Gold - **Return Structure Comparison**: Futures investment returns consist of contract holding returns and unoccupied margin interest, while spot ETF investment returns are more complex, affected by factors such as product management costs and trading premiums [16][20]. - **Comprehensive Advantages of Futures over ETFs**: Futures have high leverage and low transaction fees. For example, the comprehensive trading cost of futures is less than 1bp, while ETFs have at least 20bp in operation costs [24][25]. - **Better Returns of Stock Index Futures**: Taking the CSI 500 index as an example, the excess return of stock index futures is better than that of 500ETF and 500 index - enhanced products. Other index futures also show similar advantages [32][38]. - **Difference in Returns Due to Management Costs**: For bonds and gold, the investment returns of futures are about 50bp - 60bp higher than those of spot ETFs, mainly due to the management fees of ETFs [40][47]. 3.3 Selection of Commodity Asset Combinations - **Replication of Broad - Based Commodity Indexes**: Replicate the CSI Commodity Index and Nanhua Commodity Index. The replication results show that the CSI Commodity Index's replication has a 0.65% excess return, and the Nanhua Commodity Index's replication has a 0.19% excess return [48][56]. - **Replication of Existing Futures - Type Commodity Index ETFs**: Replicate the Shanghai Metals Index, Yisheng Energy A Index, and DCE Soybean Meal Index. The replication of the Shanghai Metals Index has a 2.3% annualized excess return [61][66]. - **Custom - Built Core Commodity Index**: - **Core Commodity Pool**: Select the actual holding varieties of five regular indexes as the core pool, with 19 - 24 varieties in the pool [75]. - **Conventional Portfolio Construction**: Build liquidity, equal - weight, and risk - parity indexes based on the core pool. The liquidity index and equal - weight index have excess returns compared to the Nanhua Commodity Index [80][84]. - **Factor Portfolio Construction**: Build momentum and term - structure indexes based on factors. The core commodity term - structure index has an 18.4% annualized return, with a Sharpe ratio of 1.02 [90]. 3.4 All - Weather Asset Allocation Futures Index - **Index Construction Concept**: Build a Risk Parity portfolio based on asset volatility risk as the all - weather asset allocation index [91]. - **Discussion on Index Construction**: - **Commodity Index Selection**: Prefer commodity indexes with low or negative correlations and high returns, such as the core commodity term - structure index [100][101]. - **Stock and Bond Asset Selection**: For bonds, T and TF are more suitable; for stocks, IC is more optimal [102]. - **Asset Weight Limit**: Do not recommend imposing excessive asset weight limits when building the index, as it may break the risk - parity target [104]. - **Covariance Estimation Method**: EWMA COV performs slightly better than normal COV, while LW COV has higher volatility and lower Sharpe ratio [106][111]. - **Covariance Estimation Window Length**: Choose the 30 - day estimation window of normal COV after considering turnover costs [112]. - **Target Volatility and Dynamic Leverage**: Applying a target volatility of 5% can improve the portfolio's return, with an annualized return of 11.58% and an average leverage of 1.59 times [119]. - **Final Index Scheme**: The asset pool includes stock index futures IC, bond futures T, gold futures AU, and the core commodity term - structure index. The index has an annualized return of 11.6% since December 31, 2019 [125][126].