日度报告——综合晨报 美国上诉法院批准暂缓执行贸易法院命令 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-05-30 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 美国上诉法院批准暂缓执行贸易法院命令 美国上诉法院暂缓了执行贸易法院命令，特朗普关税政策继续 执行，市场风险偏好回落，美元指数走低。 宏观策略（黄金） 美国至 5 月 24 日当周初请失业金人数 24 万人 综 金价先跌后涨最终收涨，主要受到特朗普对等关税被贸易法院 阻止后又被最高法院恢复的事件扰动，市场避险情绪先降后升。 美国政府目前仍在与不同国家进行贸易谈判。 合 宏观策略（国债期货） 晨 央行开展了 2660 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作 报 美关税政策被叫停对于债市的影响主要集中在情绪层面。国债 期货估值基本合理，短线存在做多机会。 黑色金属（螺纹钢/热轧卷板） 首批收购存量商品房专项债落地 本周五大品种去库表现尚可，螺纹产量下降带动降库加快。卷 板需求维持韧性，环比有所回升，钢价也有所反弹。但需求走 弱预期仍难证伪，双焦表现弱势，预计钢价反弹空间有限。 农产品（豆油/菜油/棕榈油） 马来西亚计划在 2030 年前将 B30 生物燃料用于运输行业 扫描二维 ...

周度报告——新能源汽车 2025 年第 21 周（5 月 19 日-5 月 25 日） ★ 周度乘用车市场概述 2025 年第 21 周（2025 年 5 月 19 日至 5 月 25 日），国内乘 用车零售 39.4 万辆，同比增长 10.6%；新能源乘用车零售 22.0 万辆，同比增长 19.7%；新能源渗透率为 55.9%，同比去年同期 51.6%提高了 4.3 个百分点，环比上周 56.3%下落了 0.4 个百分点。 smingfTable_Title] 新能源乘用车周度销量报告 今年以来，乘用车累计零售 810.0 万辆，同比增长 4.8%；新 能源乘用车累计零售 400.8 万辆，同比增长 30.4%；累计新能源 渗透率为 49.5%。 能 ★ 重点新能源车企销量分析 源 与 新 材 料 车企层面来看，2025 年第 21 周，比亚迪周销量 5.9 万辆， 在乘用车市场的占有率约为 15.0%，在新能源汽车市场中占有率 约为 26.8%。其他新能源销量较高的车企包括：吉利汽车 2.5 万 辆、上汽通用五菱 1.2 万辆、长安汽车 1.2 万辆、奇瑞汽车 0.7 万辆，以及特斯拉（中国）销量 1.1 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The Fed is cautious about interest rate cuts due to high economic uncertainty and inflation risks, leading to a stronger US dollar index [12][17][18]. - The market for various commodities and financial products shows different trends, with some facing downward pressure and others in a state of narrow - range oscillation [3][27][31]. - Different industries have different investment outlooks, and corresponding investment suggestions are provided based on their fundamentals [14][19][21]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The Fed is cautious about interest rate cuts, waiting for clearer impacts of Trump's tariff policies. The US International Trade Court blocked Trump's "Liberation Day" tariff, increasing the downward pressure on gold prices. Short - term gold prices may continue to fall, and it is recommended to reduce positions [12][13][14]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump mentioned the possibility of reaching a new nuclear deal with Iran in the next few weeks. The Fed is patient about interest rate adjustments due to economic uncertainties. The US dollar index is expected to strengthen in the short term [15][17][19]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 2155 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 585 billion yuan. Insurance redemptions of bond funds had a limited impact on the bond market. The bond market is expected to continue narrow - range oscillation, and it is recommended to go long in the medium - term and collect low - cost chips [20][21]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - NVIDIA's Q1 performance exceeded expectations, but H20 chip restrictions led to asset impairments and reduced revenue expectations. The Fed is worried about price increases. The US stock market is still in a state of oscillation due to concerns about government debt sustainability and tariff risks [22][23][24]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - From January to April, the total profit of state - owned enterprises decreased by 1.7% year - on - year. The market continued a dull trend of narrow - range oscillation with shrinking trading volume, and it is recommended to allocate assets evenly [25][27][28]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - It is expected that the domestic soybean crushing volume in June will reach 9.805 million tons. Brazil's DDGS and peanut meal are allowed to be imported. Overnight US soybeans closed lower, and domestic soybean meal spot prices were stable with a slight decline. It is expected that futures prices will oscillate, and the spot market will remain under pressure [29][31][32]. 2.2 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The steam coal market in northern ports remained stable. Although power plants are replenishing stocks before summer, the supply is also abundant. The coal price is expected to continue to decline after a short - term stabilization [33]. 2.3 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - From May 1st to 25th, the retail sales of passenger cars increased year - on - year. The demand for iron ore decreased seasonally, and the price is expected to continue to decline with potential inventory accumulation in June [34]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The operating rate of high - fructose corn syrup increased, while the operating rate of corn starch decreased, and the inventory decreased slightly. The CS07 - C07 spread is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation [35][36][37]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The inventory in northern ports decreased, and the southern port's domestic corn inventory increased slightly. Corn prices are expected to rise in the future, but currently, the spot market is stagnant. Attention should be paid to feed mills' inventory - building and wheat's policy - based procurement in June [38][39]. 2.6 Black Metals (Rebar/HRC) - From May 1st to 25th, the retail sales of passenger cars increased year - on - year. Brazil extended and expanded steel import quota measures. The CMI index showed that the domestic construction machinery market was in a transition from peak to off - peak. Steel prices are expected to remain weak, and it is recommended to be cautious in short - term unilateral trading and use a spot hedging strategy [41][43][44]. 2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Atico Mining signed a 30 - year mining right for the El Roble copper/gold mine. KAZ Minerals' Q1 copper production decreased year - on - year. The Fed's cautious attitude towards interest rate cuts and the strengthening of the US dollar index may suppress copper prices. It is recommended to wait and see [45][47][49]. 2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Alumina) - A medium - sized alumina enterprise in Guizhou started to resume production. The spot and long - term supply of alumina are insufficient, and it is recommended to wait and see [50][51]. 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - LME nickel inventory increased on May 28th. The decline in nickel prices may be related to rumors of increased Indonesian nickel ore quotas, concerns about cost reduction due to electricity price reforms, and weakening demand in the new energy vehicle market. It is not recommended to chase short positions, and bottom - fishing should be done with a light position [52][53][54]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Thailand stopped investment incentives for the photovoltaic industry. Polysilicon cash is in serious loss, and the inventory of some downstream silicon wafer factories is insufficient. The impact of leading enterprises' production cuts on the fundamentals is significant. It is recommended to consider going long on far - month contracts at low prices and gradually take profits on positive spreads [56][57][58]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - A North China organic silicon monomer enterprise plans to conduct maintenance. Supply pressure is increasing, while demand has no obvious improvement. It is recommended to partially take profits on previous short positions and pay attention to large enterprises' cash - flow risks [59]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - SQM withdrew from the lithium ore exploration project in Western Australia. The current dominant logic is the downward spiral of salt and ore prices. In the short term, the decline space is limited, and it is recommended to partially take profits or roll over previous short positions [60][61][61]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The price of waste batteries stabilized. The supply of lead is expected to be tight in the short term, and demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to medium - term low - buying opportunities [62][63]. 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME0 - 3 zinc was at a discount. The supply of zinc is expected to be loose in the future, and demand is weak. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities at high prices and consider long - term positive spreads [64]. 2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The price of ether - post C4 in Shandong was stable. The supply of liquefied petroleum gas decreased due to refinery maintenance. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term [65][66][67]. 2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - OPEC+ will use 2025 oil production as the 2027 production benchmark. The oil price is expected to have weak upward momentum in the short term [68][69][70]. 2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong increased. The supply is stable, and demand is good. The alumina market's impact on caustic soda is weakening, and the futures market is expected to oscillate [71]. 2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp was mainly stable. The futures market was in a weak - range operation. It is expected that the pulp futures will oscillate [72][75]. 2.19 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The spot price of PVC powder decreased slightly. The futures market oscillated downward. It is expected that the PVC futures will oscillate [76]. 2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - The inventory of styrene and pure benzene in East China ports increased. The price of styrene decreased. It is recommended to be cautious about the far - month trend of pure benzene and styrene [77][78][79]. 2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export price of bottle chips was stable, and the market transaction was average. The industry has high production, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate at a low level. Attention should be paid to supply changes [80][81]. 2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash market in Shahe was in a low - level oscillation. The supply is expected to be stable, and demand is weak. Short - term maintenance may support the price, but it is recommended to short at high prices in the medium - term [82]. 2.23 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in Jiangsu was stable. The futures and spot markets were weak. It is expected that the glass futures will remain in a low - level range, and attention should be paid to real - estate policy changes [83][84]. 2.24 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - Vietnam may impose tariffs on e - commerce imports. The container freight rate index was affected by sentiment. It is recommended to pay attention to buying opportunities during price corrections [85][86].

热点报告-鸡蛋 n[Table_Title] 上半年反套结构的确立，下半年交易维度的增 加 [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] 报告日期： ★[Ta近bl期e_：Su曲mm折a下ry]行 农 2025 上半年，鸡蛋市场呈"供给逐步释放、需求复苏有限、价格 曲折下行"的市场特征。从现货价格走势来看，据钢联农产品，1-5 月，主产区月均价由 1 月的 4.22 元/斤一路下跌至 3.30 元/斤附近。 趋势上，价格的下跌背后来自高存栏基数的助推；而从不一直那么 顺畅下跌的角度来看，各个节假日前后现货波动则围绕需求展开。 其中春节与五一前后现货的变化进一步带动盘面跟随，而产生大幅 调整。近期，鸡蛋期货呈偏弱走势，5 月初盘面的小幅上行来自现 货的短暂反弹，而后再度回归交易供应偏多现实，盘面大幅下行。 产 ★ 交易重心将逐渐发生转移 农产品-鸡蛋-热点报告 2025-5-28 品 我们在鸡蛋 6、7 月合约偏空的看法主要来自于过剩的市场供应， 一方面存栏基数偏高，另一方面养殖端淘汰进程暂缓且淘鸡价格偏 高。交易重心将逐渐往需求倾斜。从历史走势来看，蛋价呈现出极 其典型的季节性特点，尤其在二季度末至三季度初。一般来说， ...

重点集装箱港口及关键枢纽监测20250528 东证衍生品研究院 黑色与航运部 兰淅 从业资格号：F03086543 投资咨询号：Z0016590 数据点评 • 亚洲港口： 洋山港、外高桥远洋型集装箱船周均等泊时间/在泊时间分别为17.3小时/24.1小时、3.3小时/21.7小时，最新在锚/在泊集装 箱船数量达到19艘/33艘、14艘/19艘；宁波港远洋型集装箱船周均等泊时间/在泊时间为21.9时/25.9小时，最新在锚/在泊集装箱船数量 为14艘/36艘。青岛远洋型集装箱船周均等泊时间/在泊时间为28.6小时/23.5小时；新加坡港远洋型集装箱船周均等泊时间/在泊时间为 1.2小时/30.8小时，最新在锚/在泊集装箱船数量为5艘/46艘 ，巴生港周均等泊时间/在泊时间为22.9小时/27.4小时，最新在锚/在泊集 装箱船数量为24艘/23艘。国内主要港口船舶平均在港时长仍处于高位，中美货物激增是否会造成港口拥堵持续恶化有待观察。巴生港持 续超负荷运转，港口拥堵再度恶化，船舶平均在港约为2天。 • 欧洲港口： 鹿特丹、安特卫普、汉堡港、不来梅，远洋型集装箱船周均等泊时间/在泊时间分别为11.4小时/52.0小 ...

日度报告——综合晨报 美国 5 月消费者信心指数上升，4 月份规上工 企利润增速 3% [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-05-28 宏观策略（黄金） 美国佛州签署法案承认金银为法定货币 金价回调超过 1%一度跌破 3000 美金关口，市场风险偏好回升， 受到欧盟与美国谈判进展的推动，特朗普此前威胁对欧盟加征 50%关税，主要还是通过极限施压方式达成协议。 宏观策略（美国股指期货） 美国 5 月消费者信心指数升至 98.0 综 欧美关税谈判压力缓和，软数据边际改善，市场风险偏好提升， 三大股指大幅上涨。 合 宏观策略（股指期货） 晨 前 4 月规上工企利润同比增 1.4% 报 4 月份规上工企利润单月增速回升至 3%，拆分看，量价双弱， 利润率改善支撑利润增速。营收增速则回落至 2.6%表明抢出口 对需求拉动不及预期。 有色金属（铜） IEA 警告全球精炼铜需求料在 2050 年之前大幅增加 | 杨云兰 | 高级分析师 （农产品） | | --- | --- | | [Table_Analyser] 从业资格号： | F03107631 | | 投资咨询号： | Z0021468 | | Tel： ...

热点报告-金融工程 [★Tab事le_件Su：mImC、aryI]M 持续深度贴水 2025 年以来，股指期货贴水多次走阔，近期 IC、IM 贴水持 续维持历史高位，引发市场关注。截止 5 月 26 日，IC、IM 剔除 分红当季合约年化贴水率分别为 10.6%、15.3%，对应两年百分位 分别为 3.6%、2.4%。 风险中性定价原理（risk-neutral valuation） [Table_Title] 如何看待 IC&IM 当前的深贴水？ ★ 后续基差展望与策略建议 ★ 贴水原因分析 分析深贴水持续有 3 个主要因素： 一是多头套保资金的缺失。挂钩股指的结构化产品经历了持续 的敲出和到期，且新发受限，存续规模维持低位，仅有 2023 年最大 规模的约 1/4 到 1/3 。 金 融 工 程 二是中性策略套保需求维持稳定。今年以来小市值跑赢大盘， 中证2000指数相对中证1000指数取得累计超额收益7.7%，指增alpha 普遍表现较好；股指期货维持深度贴水的情况下，空头持有远季合 约对冲成本可控，例如 IC 持有当季合约对冲今年以来已兑现对冲成 本接近 0，叠加基差管理策略的中性策略可以取得较好表现 ...

日度报告——综合晨报 欧美谈判延期，俄乌冲突短期或难以停止 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-05-27 宏观策略（黄金） 欧美继续谈判 黄金震荡收跌，由于美国阵亡将士纪念日休市，市场交易较为 清淡，特朗普对欧盟的关税威胁改口延期，双方继续谈判，市 场避险情绪有所缓解，黄金延续震荡走势。 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 特朗普称普京"完全疯了" 正考虑对俄追加制裁 综 特朗普对于普京的表态意味着美国将转变思路，或许加大对于 俄罗斯的制裁，俄乌冲突短期难以停止。 合 宏观策略（股指期货） 晨 穆迪决定维持中国主权信用评级不变 报 A 股市场持续缩量，小盘与大盘风格再度呈现跷跷板效应，小盘 修复，大盘下跌。但市场高昂的风险偏好和自身脆弱结构之间 的差距也在不断拉大。 农产品（豆油/菜油/棕榈油） 5 月 1-25 日马来西亚棕榈油出口量环比增加 7.34% 国内棕榈油去库，马棕产量基本持平 能源化工（原油） OPEC+会议将提前一天进行 油价震荡略回落，关注本周末 OPEC+会议结果。 | 吴梦吟 | 资深分析师 | （宏观策略） | | --- | --- | --- | | [Table_Ana ...

周度报告——光伏玻璃 终端需求持续缩减，光伏玻璃价格弱势运行 ★光伏玻璃基本面周度表现（截至 2025/5/23 当周）： 截至 5 月 23 日，国内光伏玻璃 2.0mm 镀膜（面板）主流价格 为 13.5 元/平米，环比上周持平；3.2mm 镀膜主流价格为 21.5 元/平米，亦环比上周持平。 上周光伏玻璃供给端基本稳定，仅有一条产线引头子出玻璃，暂 无新线投产。预计本周市场供给仍保持稳定状态，暂无厂家计划 新投窑炉。 能 源 上周终端需求持续缩减，组件厂家订单减少，光伏玻璃订单基本 处于交付尾期。预计本周需求表现仍偏弱，光伏玻璃厂家销量承 压。 化 工 当前光伏玻璃订单基本处于交付尾期，由于终端需求持续缩减， 上周光伏玻璃厂家库存继续上涨，目前行业库存已经重回高位。 ★ 供需分析： [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025 年 5 月 26 日 | 曹璐 | 资深分析师(化工) | | --- | --- | | 从业资格号： | F3013434 | | 投资咨询号： | Z0013049 | | Tel: | 8621-63325888-3521 | | Email: | lu.cao@orie ...

周度报告——商品期货 商品 ETF 配置周报： 商品整体反弹空间或受限 目前，产业利润指数已接近极值位置。基于产业利润和通胀的 同步性特征，综合性商品指数短期进一步修复的空间或受限。 | | 多配属性 | | --- | --- | | 工业品指数 | — | | 大成有色 ETF | ⭐ | | 建信易盛能源化工 ETF | — | | 华夏豆粕饲料 ETF | ⭐⭐ | [T报ab告le_日Ra期nk：] 2025 年 5 月 26 日 [Table_Summary] ★前言 作为投资门槛低、且可多元化配置的通胀类资产，商品 ETF 的 配置需求日益增长。配置步骤包括，基于产业驱动强弱差异筛 选、优化组合；采用滚动 PCA 因子确定的风险暴露进行配置， 以模拟甚至超越综合性商品指数（即通胀）的中长期走势，在 此基础上进行主观系统化择时以优化组合风险收益特征。 ★宏观驱动及市场风格轮动 商 品 2025 年 5 月 23 日当周，市场风格回归避险逻辑，贵金属、期债 及农产品强于工业品。周内，华夏豆粕饲料 ETF 录得正收益， 两支工业品属性的商品 ETF 均录得负收益，其中大成有色 ETF 相对抗跌。 货 ...