周度报告—工业硅/多晶硅 多晶硅政策博弈，工业硅关注逢高沽空机会 [★Ta工bl业e_硅Summary] 新疆大厂仍处于减产状态。7 月 1 日云南进入丰水期，预计开 炉数增加到 40 台左右。四川在盘面反弹之际套保 4402#等高端 牌号，预计后续产量也将有小幅增加。新疆大厂生产计划将对 工业硅基本面产生较大影响。若大厂维持 48 台开炉，则工业 硅单月或去库 6 万吨。但若大厂恢复东部基地满产，则工业硅 或单月累库 3 万吨。 ★多晶硅 有 色 金 属 本周多晶硅期货主力合约大幅上涨，仍与"反内卷"、"不低 于成本销售"等消息有关。本周我们确实见到多晶硅企业上调 报价。根据 SMM 统计，7 月 2 日起 N 型复投料价格上涨至 36 元/千克，较此前上涨 1.5 元/千克。但下游硅片处于现金亏损 状态，无法接受高价硅料，买卖方价差过大，导致现货难以成 交。多晶硅的现实问题尚未得到解决。仅考虑已复产企业的生 产情况，7 月多晶硅排产也将提升到 10.7 万吨，带动多晶硅进 入单月过剩。根据 SMM，截至 7 月 3 日，中国多晶硅厂库存 27.2 万吨，环比+0.2 万吨。若多晶硅价格希望实现真正意义上 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Oscillation [2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term trend of gold prices is oscillating and has not yet broken out of the range, waiting for more momentum [5] - Multiple factors are intertwined. Tariff policies boost gold's safe - haven property, but the intensity and uncertainty are lower than in April, resulting in limited gold price increases. The relatively good performance of US economic data does not bring additional positive factors to gold. The implementation of the US tax - cut bill will boost short - term economic and risk appetite but increase the long - term debt burden of the US government, and the logic of gold hedging against the US dollar credit remains [3][4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Overview - London gold rose 1.9% to $3,337 per ounce. The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.34%, the inflation expectation was 2.33%, the real interest rate rose to 2%, the US dollar index fell 0.23% to 97.2, the S&P 500 index rose 1.72%, the offshore RMB appreciated slightly, and the domestic - foreign price difference fluctuated narrowly [2] 3.2 Gold High - Frequency Data Weekly Changes | Index Name | Unit | This Week | Last Week | Change Amount | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Domestic Basis (Spot - Futures) | Yuan/g | - 5.49 | - 3.32 | - 2.17 | 65.4% | | Domestic - Foreign Futures Price Difference (Domestic - Foreign) | Yuan/g | - 12.08 | 8.99 | - 21.07 | - 234.4% | | SHFE Gold Inventory | Kg | 21,456 | 18,237 | 3,219.00 | 17.7% | | COMEX Gold Inventory | Ounce | 36,785,583 | 37,048,335 | - 262,752 | - 0.71% | | SPDR ETF Holdings | Tons | 947.66 | 954.82 | - 7.16 | - 0.75% | | CFTC Gold Speculative Net Long Positions | Lots | 130,484 | 136,626 | - 6,142 | - 4.5% | | US Treasury Yield | % | 4.35 | 4.29 | 0.06 | 1.4% | | US Dollar Index | | 96.99 | 97.26 | - 0.27 | - 0.28% | | SOFR | % | 4.40 | 4.36 | 0.04 | 0.9% | | US 10 - Year Breakeven Inflation Rate | % | 2.3386 | 2.3043 | 0.0343 | 1.49% | | S&P 500 Index | | 6,279 | 6,173 | 106 | 1.7% | | VIX Volatility Index | % | 17.5 | 16.3 | 1.2 | 7.1% | | Gold Cross - Market Arbitrage Trading | | 7.1 | 7.3 | - 0.2 | - 2.7% | | US 10 - Year Real Interest Rate | % | 2.01 | 1.97 | 0.03 | 1.7% | [11] 3.3 Financial Market - Related Data Tracking 3.3.1 US Financial Market - The US overnight secured financing rate was 4.4%. Oil prices rose 2.5%, and the US inflation expectation was 2.33% [17] - The US dollar index fell 0.23% to 97.2, the US Treasury yield was 4.34%, the S&P 500 index rose 1.72%, and the VIX index slightly rose to 17.6 [19] - The real interest rate slightly rose to 2.007%, and the gold price rose 1.9%. The spot commodity index closed down, and the US dollar index slightly fell [21] 3.3.2 Global Financial Markets - Stocks, Bonds, Currencies, and Commodities - Developed - country stock markets mostly rose, with the S&P 500 rising 1.72%. Developing - country stock markets mostly rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.4% [22] - US and German bonds rebounded, and the US - Germany yield spread was 1.74%. The UK Treasury yield was 4.55%, and the Japanese bond yield was 1.44% [27] - The euro rose 0.52%, the pound fell 0.48%, the yen rose 0.12%, and the Swiss franc rose 0.63%. The US dollar index fell 0.23% to 97.2, and most non - US currencies appreciated [29][31] 3.4 Gold Trading - Level Data Tracking - The release of gold speculative net long positions was postponed to July 8. The SPDR Gold ETF holdings fell to 947 tons [34] - The RMB slightly appreciated, and the Shanghai gold premium fluctuated narrowly. Gold and silver rebounded, and the gold - silver ratio fell to 90.2 [36] 3.5 Weekly Economic Calendar | Date | Important Data & Events | | --- | --- | | Monday | China's foreign exchange reserves in June; Eurozone retail sales in June | | Tuesday | Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate meeting decision; US NFIB small - business confidence index in June; New York Fed one - year inflation expectation | | Wednesday | China's CPI in June; End of the US reciprocal tariff suspension period | | Thursday | Minutes of the Fed's June interest rate meeting | | Friday | US 30 - year Treasury auction | [37]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the alumina industry is "Oscillation" [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic ore supply has tightened, and the spot price of alumina has risen slightly. The alumina market is currently in a state of slight oversupply, and short - term price trends are expected to oscillate. It is recommended to approach it with an oscillatory mindset in the short term [1][15] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview - **Raw Materials**: Domestic ore prices remained stable last week. In Shanxi, Shandong, and Guizhou, the prices of different - grade bauxite were stable. In Shanxi, inspections continued, and in Henan, rainfall limited mining, leading to supply shortages and firm prices. In Guangxi, illegal mining inspections were strengthened. Imported bauxite long - term agreement prices were between $74 - 75 per dry ton, and shipments might decrease in the second half of the third quarter. Newly - arrived ore was 4.436 million tons, with 3.555 million tons from Guinea and 0.594 million tons from Australia. The shipping cost from Guinea to China dropped to $18.5 per ton [12] - **Alumina**: The spot price of alumina rose slightly last week. In the domestic market, the ALD northern comprehensive price and the domestic weighted index increased. The import port price remained flat. Market transactions were average. Overseas, 30,000 tons of alumina were traded in Western Australia. The domestic alumina production capacity increased slightly, with a construction capacity of 112.92 million tons, an operating capacity of 93.55 million tons (up 400,000 tons from last week), and an operating rate of 82.9% [3][13] - **Demand**: Domestically, Guizhou Huangguoshu Aluminum increased production by 20,000 tons to 100,000 tons. The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was 44.103 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons week - on - week. Overseas demand remained unchanged, with an electrolytic aluminum operating capacity of 29.571 million tons [13] - **Inventory**: As of July 3, the national alumina inventory was 3.162 million tons, an increase of 25,000 tons from last week. Electrolytic aluminum enterprises' alumina inventory increased, with different inventory trends among various entities. Alumina enterprises' inventory was at a low level, port inventory fluctuated significantly, and delivery inventory decreased [14] - **Warehouse Receipts**: There were 21,314 tons of registered alumina warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, a decrease of 9,005 tons from last week. The domestic futures price oscillated last week. The bauxite price in Guinea was stable in the third quarter, and the domestic alumina supply was slightly in surplus, suppressing the price. It is recommended to view alumina from an oscillatory perspective in the short term [15] 2. Summary of Key Events in the Industry Chain during the Week - On July 5, 30,000 tons of alumina were traded in East Australia at a FOB price of $363 per ton from Gladstone Port for shipping in early August [16] - On July 4, 10,000 tons of alumina were traded in Guangxi at an ex - factory price of 3,250 yuan per ton. Supply in the local market was tight due to production cuts and maintenance [16] - On July 2, 300 tons of alumina were traded in Henan at an ex - factory price of 3,150 yuan per ton, purchased by a trader for delivery to a northwest aluminum plant [16] 3. Monitoring of Key Data for the Upstream and Downstream of the Industry Chain - **Raw Materials and Cost**: This section includes data on domestic and imported bauxite prices, domestic bauxite port inventory, shipping volume from major bauxite - importing countries, sea - floating inventory, domestic caustic soda and thermal coal prices, and alumina production costs in different provinces [17][19][24] - **Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance**: It covers domestic and imported alumina prices, domestic electrolytic aluminum spot prices, the futures price ratio of electrolytic aluminum to alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the weekly supply - demand balance of domestic alumina [31][33][39] - **Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: It involves the alumina inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants, alumina plants, domestic alumina in storage/on the platform/in transit, port inventory, total social inventory, and the quantity and holding volume of alumina warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange [41][44][49]

周度报告—碳酸锂 、smingfTable_Title] 智利 6 月发运仍是低位， 市场博弈表需实际成色 | [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] | 碳酸锂：震荡 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 年 7 月 6 | 日 | [Table_Summary] ★智利 6 月发运仍是低位，市场博弈表需实际成色 需求预期差驱动下，盘面重心由此前的 5.9 万元抬升至 6.3 万元 一线。上周价格震荡整理，下游刚需采购需求陆续释放，侧面印 证排产超预期。与此同时，本轮反弹过程中矿价快速调涨，对应 锂盐加工环节利润仍维持在盈亏平衡附近、利润窗口并未显著开 启。向后看，国内盐厂检修与复产并存、国内产量环比或仍有小 幅增长，但智利及阿根廷发运维持低位，供应端整体压力有限。 市场博弈的焦点或仍在于需求端，需结合现货市场的成交情况动 态印证需求端实际成色，需要注意的是，基差受第三方网站调价 影响较大，下游询价情况及现货市场成交量或是更有参考意义的 指标。策略方面，依旧建议关注回调试多以及正套机会，中线空 单建议耐心等待更适宜时机布局。 ★风险提示 下游消费不及预期，新增产能建设进度 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The commodity options market showed increased activity this week, with significant growth in both trading volume and open interest. Traders are advised to focus on actively - traded varieties for potential market opportunities [1][7]. - This week, most underlying futures of commodity options rose. Some commodities saw a significant increase in implied volatility, and different strategies are recommended based on high - and low - volatility varieties. The PCR indicators reflect different market sentiment for various commodities, and investors should pay attention to the corresponding risks [2][15]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Commodity Options Market Activity - From June 28 to July 4, 2025, the average daily trading volume of the commodity options market was 6.82 million lots, and the average daily open interest was 9.86 million lots, with a week - on - week increase of 31.43% and 14.86% respectively [1][7]. - Actively - traded varieties in terms of daily average trading volume included industrial silicon (780,000 lots), glass (770,000 lots), and soda ash (750,000 lots). There were 8 varieties with a trading volume increase of over 100%, such as polysilicon (+332%), industrial silicon (+227%), and glass (+116%). The varieties with a significant decline in trading volume were p - xylene (-96%), synthetic rubber (-70%), and tin (-61%) [1][7]. - In terms of open interest, the varieties with high average daily open interest were soda ash (1.1 million lots), glass (930,000 lots), and soybean meal (890,000 lots). The variety with a rapid week - on - week increase in average daily open interest was polysilicon (+121%) [1][7]. 3.2 This Week's Commodity Options Main Data Review - **Underlying Price Movements**: Most underlying futures of commodity options rose this week. The varieties with high weekly increases were industrial silicon (+6.59%), caustic soda (+2.63%), and rebar (+2.57%), while the variety with a high decline was red dates (-2.34%) [2][15]. - **Market Volatility**: Affected by the "anti - involution", the implied volatility of some commodities increased significantly this week, but 39 varieties still had their current implied volatility below the historical 50th percentile. High - volatility varieties included industrial silicon, eggs, and red dates, and investors were advised to beware of one - sided risks and consider short - volatility opportunities. Low - volatility varieties included iron ore, rebar, and vegetable oils, and industrial customers could consider insurance strategies due to the low option - buying prices [2][15]. - **Options Market Sentiment**: The trading volume PCR of varieties such as red dates was at a historical high, indicating a strong short - term bearish sentiment and the need to pay attention to the risk of underlying price corrections. The trading volume PCR of nickel, methanol, ethylene glycol, and styrene was at a historical low, showing a concentrated short - term bullish sentiment. The open interest PCR of lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and cotton was at a historical high, indicating a high - level accumulated bearish sentiment, while the open interest PCR of copper, nickel, styrene, LPG, and soda ash was at a historical low, indicating an accumulated bullish sentiment [2][15]. 3.3 Main Varieties Key Data Overview This chapter mainly presents the key data of main varieties, including trading volume, volatility, and options market sentiment indicators. More detailed data for more varieties can be accessed on the Dongzheng Fancy Micro official website (https://www.finoview.com.cn/) [19]. 3.3.1 Energy No specific data analysis is provided in the text, only chart references are given, including the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of crude oil [20][22][23]. 3.3.2 Chemicals - **PTA**: The text only provides chart references, including the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of PTA [27][28][35]. - **Caustic Soda**: The text only provides chart references, including the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of caustic soda [37][38][39]. - **Glass**: The text only provides chart references, including the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of glass [43][44][45]. - **Soda Ash**: The text only provides chart references, including the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of soda ash [51][52][53]. 3.3.3 Precious Metals The text only provides chart references, including the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of silver [57][61][58]. 3.3.4 Ferrous Metals - **Iron Ore**: The text only provides chart references, including the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of iron ore [64][65][70]. - **Silicomanganese**: The text only provides chart references, including the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of silicomanganese [72][73][74]. 3.3.5 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The text only provides chart references, including the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of copper [80][81][85]. - **Alumina**: The text only provides chart references, including the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of alumina [88][89][91]. 3.3.6 Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The text only provides chart references, including the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of soybean meal [97][99]. - **Palm Oil**: The text only provides chart references, including the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of palm oil [103][104][105]. - **Cotton**: The text only provides chart references, including the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of cotton [111][112][113].

周度报告——股指期货 新题材相继涌现，股指持续走强 [★Ta一bl周e_复Su盘mm：a反ry]内卷行情启动 股 指 期 货 本周（06/30-07/04）以美元计价的全球股市收涨。MSCI 全球指 数涨 1.2%，其中前沿市场（+1.55%）>发达市场（+1.31%）> 新兴市场（+0.25%）。巴西股市涨 4.40%领跑全球，瑞典股市跌 1.6%全球表现最差。中国权益资产分化，分市场看，A 股>中概 股>港股。A 股沪深京三市日均成交额 14417 亿元，环比上周 （14869 亿元)缩量 453 亿元。指数分化明显，其中微盘股指数涨 1.89%表现最好，北证 50 指数跌 1.71%跑输大盘。本周 A 股中信 一级行业中共中共共 25 个上涨（上周 29 个），5 个下跌（上周 1 个）。领涨行业为钢铁（+5.27%），跌幅最大的行业为综合金 融（-4.45%）。利率方面，本周 10Y 国债收益率上行，1Y 下行， 利差扩大。ETF 资金流向方面，跟踪沪深 300 指数的 ETF 份额 本周减少 25 亿份，跟踪中证 500 的 ETF 份额减少 5 亿份。跟踪 中证 1000 的 ETF 份额本周减少 ...

周度报告-国债期货 [Table_Summary] ★一周复盘：国债期货先跌后涨 国 债 期 货 本周（06.30-07.06）国债期货先跌后涨。周一，周五晚间央行货 政例会未提及降准降息，今日资金面均衡偏紧、6 月官方制造业 PMI 超市场预期、股市震荡走强，国债期货全线下跌。尾盘现 券情绪略微好转。周二，跨季后资金面边际转松，市场情绪略 回暖，国债震荡走强。市场交易央行重启公开市场国债买卖的 预期有所降温，短债表现偏弱。周三，资金面均衡偏松，国债 期货震荡走强。尾盘数据显示央行暂未重启公开市场国债买 卖，现券利率回吐部分涨幅。周四，央行重启公开市场国债买 卖操作预期落空，股市由弱走强，债市偏弱震荡。资金面较为 宽松，期货曲线走陡。周五，市场消息面相对平静。股市由强 转弱，资金面全天偏松，国债期货小幅走强。截至 7 月 4 日收 盘，两年、五年、十年和三十年期国债期货主力合约结算价分 别为 102.508、106.250、109.110 和 121.200 元，分别较上周末变 动-0.038、-0.015、+0.040 和+0.260 元。 ★做多动能积累，但突破仍需等待 展望下周，预计资金面仍然偏松，债市 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "oscillation" [5] Core View of the Report - The US economic data in June was slightly better than market expectations, with the non - farm payrolls being stronger than expected, which dispelled the market's expectation of a rate cut in July, and the benchmark expectation is now a rate cut in September. The US will likely impose tariffs of over 10% on trading partners after the 90 - day tariff suspension period expires, which may pressure market risk appetite. The "Big and Beautiful" tax - cut bill passed in the US is positive for the stock market in the short term but will exacerbate the government's debt burden in the long term. The US dollar is expected to have a mid - term downward trend but may show short - term oscillatory movements due to trade uncertainties [2][34] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Global Market Overview This Week - Market risk appetite remained high. Most global stock markets rose, while bond yields showed mixed trends. The US Treasury yield increased to 4.34%. The US dollar index fell 0.23% to 97.2, and most non - US currencies appreciated. Gold prices rose 1.9% to $3337 per ounce, the VIX index slightly increased to 17.5, the spot commodity index declined, and Brent crude oil rose 2.5% to $70.8 per barrel [1][5][9] 2. Market Trading Logic and Asset Performance 2.1 Stock Market - Global stock markets mostly rose. In developed markets, the S&P 500 rose 1.72%, and most euro - zone stock markets closed higher. In emerging markets, all stock markets rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.4%. However, the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 1.52%, and the Nikkei 225 Index fell 0.85%. The better - than - expected US economic data supported the strength of the US stock market. The US 6 - month non - farm payrolls data was strong, but the ADP employment data was weak, indicating potential pressure on future non - farm payrolls. The Chinese official manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs in June showed slight rebounds, and the A - share market had high risk appetite and a strengthening index [10][11][13] 2.2 Bond Market - Global bond yields showed mixed trends. The 10 - year US Treasury yield increased to 4.34%, euro - zone government bonds oscillated, and most emerging - market bond yields declined. Due to better - than - expected US economic data and the increase in the government debt ceiling after the tax - cut bill passed, the US Treasury yield is expected to face upward pressure. The UK Treasury yield once rose 15bp due to fiscal issues and then slightly declined. Overall, the downward space for European and American bond yields is limited. The 10 - year Chinese Treasury yield slightly decreased to 1.645%, and the Sino - US yield spread inversion widened to 270bp, with the domestic bond market showing an oscillatory trend [14][18][19] 2.3 Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index fell 0.23% to 97.2, and most non - US currencies appreciated. The offshore RMB rose 0.13%, the euro rose 0.52%, the pound fell 0.48%, the yen rose 0.12%, the Swiss franc rose 0.63%, and the peso, real, and rand rose by over 1% [25][26][28] 2.4 Commodity Market - Gold prices rose 1.9% to $3337 per ounce. The market focused on the US tariff - imposing progress after the 90 - day tariff suspension period. Tariff risks supported gold, but the price was in an oscillatory range and had not broken through. The US economic data supported the Fed to pause rate cuts, and there was a risk of a short - term pullback. Brent crude oil rose 2.5% to $70.8 per barrel. OPEC+ announced another production increase, and the weak supply - demand situation led to low - level oscillations in oil prices. The domestic industrial product market rebounded due to anti - involution speculation, but there were differences among varieties, and the sustainability was questionable, and the commodity spot index declined [29][30][31] 3. Hot - spot Tracking - The US non - farm payrolls in June were better than expected, with over 140,000 new jobs added and the unemployment rate dropping to 4.1%. The wage growth rate was lower than expected, reducing the upward pressure on core inflation [2][3][34] 4. Next Week's Important Event Reminders - Monday: China's June foreign exchange reserves, euro - zone's June retail sales. - Tuesday: Reserve Bank of Australia's interest - rate meeting decision, US June NFIB small - business confidence index, and New York Fed's one - year inflation expectation. - Wednesday: China's June CPI, expiration of the US tariff suspension period. - Thursday: Fed's June interest - rate meeting minutes. - Friday: US 30 - year Treasury auction [35]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend rating for the dollar is "oscillating" [2] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US non - farm payrolls in June exceeded expectations, dispelling the expectation of an interest rate cut in July. The employment market remained resilient, but its structure deteriorated. The data supported the Fed to continue to observe cautiously. Market expectations of an interest rate cut cooled further after the data release [1][2][3] - Strong employment data alleviated market concerns about economic downturn and supported market sentiment in the short term. However, the market underestimated the deterioration of the employment market structure, and the subsequent weakening of the employment market might cause disturbances [4][40] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. US June Non - farm Payrolls Situation - The US added 147,000 non - farm jobs in June, exceeding the market expectation of 110,000. The unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.1%, lower than the expected 4.3%. The hourly wage growth rate was 0.2% month - on - month and 3.7% year - on - year, slightly lower than expected and the previous value [2][9] - In terms of industries, new jobs mainly came from education and healthcare (51,000), leisure and hospitality (20,000), and government departments (73,000). Layoffs increased in some sectors such as professional and business services (7,000), wholesale (6,600), and other services (5,000) [2][18] 2. Investment Advice - The overall strong employment data alleviated market concerns about economic downturn and supported market sentiment in the short term. The market was trading around tariff negotiations and tax cut bills. The implementation of the tax cut bill continued to support market risk appetite. The dollar and US Treasury yields stopped falling and rebounded, US stocks were oscillating strongly, and gold still faced a correction risk [4][40]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market sentiment remains high, with the ChiNext Index strongly rebounding due to the US - Vietnam trade agreement. The US labor market shows resilience, affecting the Fed's interest - rate decision and the performance of various financial and commodity markets [2][22]. - Different commodities have different supply - demand situations and price trends. For example, some metals like lead may see an upward shift in the price oscillation center, while some agricultural products like corn have a strong spot market due to decreasing visible inventory [6][7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US 6 - month employment report exceeded expectations, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.1%. The market dispelled the expectation of a July interest - rate cut, and gold is under short - term pressure. It is recommended to pay attention to the risk of decline [15]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The US has revoked restrictions on China's EDA. The ChiNext Index rebounded strongly due to the US - Vietnam trade agreement. It is recommended to evenly allocate various stock indices to cope with sector rotation [17][18]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The latest non - farm data in June exceeded expectations, with the unemployment rate decreasing and new employment exceeding expectations. The US dollar index rebounded significantly. It is expected to continue to rebound in the short term [22]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - US economic data shows resilience, but there are signs of structural deterioration. The US stock market is oscillating strongly, but attention should be paid to the risks of tariff negotiations and weakening economic data. It is necessary to be vigilant about the risk of a pullback [27]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted a 572 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation. The Treasury bond futures are expected to be in an oscillating trend, with a higher probability of strengthening in the future. It is recommended to hold long positions and consider buying on dips [28]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metal (Steam Coal) - The price of steam coal is stabilizing. With the resumption of production in Inner Mongolia, supply has increased slightly. High - temperature weather supports coal prices, making it difficult for them to decline during the peak season [30]. 3.2.2 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - Iron ore prices have rebounded, with improved spot trading. Although the molten iron output decreased this period, it is expected to remain stable in July, and port inventory will slightly accumulate. The overall trend is difficult to reverse, but it is expected to remain strong in the short term [33]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The USDA weekly export sales report met expectations. There are rumors about a China - US agreement, but China's purchases of US soybeans remain stagnant. The domestic import cost of soybeans has increased, and the futures price is expected to oscillate within a range [35]. 3.2.4 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The inventory of five major steel products is basically flat compared with last week. The demand decline due to high - temperature weather is not obvious. Although the current expectation and fundamentals are strong, the external demand risk remains. It is recommended to use a hedging strategy on rallies for the spot [40]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - The main hog futures contract LH2509 has risen rapidly. The fundamental sentiment is strong, driving the spot price to stabilize and rebound. However, the supply in July - August is still relatively large, and the long - short game intensifies. It is recommended to wait for the signal of pressure from hog sales and then short on rallies [43]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The demand for starch sugar fails to meet expectations. The consumption of corn decreases, while that of corn starch increases slightly. The starch is expected to continue to reduce production to reduce inventory. The factors affecting the CS - C spread are complex, and the future is uncertain [45]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The visible inventory of corn continues to decline, and the first batch of imported corn auctions had high premiums, supporting the strong spot market. It is recommended to wait and see for old - crop contracts and consider shorting new - crop contracts 11 and 01 on rallies [47]. 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - The global cotton supply is stable, while the demand is uncertain. The trade policy is a major variable. The domestic cotton market is supported by a tight supply of old - crop commercial inventory but is dragged down by the weak downstream industry. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [54]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The social inventory of lead ingots has increased. The short - term supply - demand is weak, but there is an expectation of strong supply - demand in the long term. The price oscillation center may shift upward. It is recommended to buy on dips [55]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The spread between Shanghai and Guangdong has widened, and the domestic inventory has increased. The macro - situation affects the price, and fundamentally, there is an expectation of oversupply in the medium term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and consider positive - spread arbitrage opportunities [57]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Policy rumors drive the polysilicon futures price up, but the fundamentals are not optimistic. The price still has downward pressure. It is recommended to stop profiting from the PS2508 - 2509 positive spread due to high policy - related risks [61]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The social inventory of industrial silicon has increased. The supply side has new changes, and the demand side may be affected by polysilicon production cuts. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [63]. 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Copper prices are affected by factors such as AI, renewable energy, and tariffs. The US non - farm data affects the dollar index and copper prices. The domestic inventory shows a weak accumulation trend. It is recommended to maintain a long - biased strategy for the short - term high - level oscillation [66]. 3.2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The cooperation between Fulin Seiko and Chuanfa Longmang is expected to enhance the former's layout in the lithium - battery material industry. The demand in July is better than expected, driving the price up. It is recommended to avoid short - selling in the short term and consider positive - spread arbitrage opportunities [70]. 3.2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The inventory of LME and SHFE has decreased. The raw - material cost support is weakening, and the supply of nickel is expected to be in surplus. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [73]. 3.2.16 Energy and Chemical Industry (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The weekly production of domestic LPG has decreased, and the inventory has also decreased. The fundamentals are weak, and there is no upward price drive [75]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemical Industry (Natural Gas) - The US natural gas inventory has increased. The summer temperature will support the price, and the demand for gas - electricity is expected to decline slightly. The NYMEX is expected to oscillate in the short term [78]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemical Industry (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong has increased slightly, with improved demand and increased supply. The futures price has rebounded, but the rebound height is expected to be limited [80]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemical Industry (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp is stable with a slight decline. The futures price is rising slightly. The market is expected to oscillate due to the weak fundamentals [83]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemical Industry (PVC) - The price of PVC powder is narrowly adjusted. The futures price is oscillating. The inventory is turning from decreasing to increasing, and the subsequent market rise may be limited [85]. 3.2.21 Energy and Chemical Industry (Styrene) - The weekly production of styrene has decreased slightly. The supply - demand of pure benzene and styrene has different trends. The future supply - demand of styrene is expected to weaken. It is recommended to pay attention to the release rhythm of Yulong's new capacity [86]. 3.2.22 Energy and Chemical Industry (Bottle Chips) - The export quotation of bottle - chip factories has been mostly reduced. The factories plan to cut production in July. If the production cuts are implemented, the inventory pressure will be relieved. It is recommended to pay attention to opportunities to expand the processing margin on dips [88]. 3.2.23 Energy and Chemical Industry (Carbon Emissions) - The EU Commission proposes a flexible 2040 climate target, but there are many internal objections. The EU carbon price is expected to oscillate in the short term [90]. 3.2.24 Energy and Chemical Industry (Soda Ash) - The inventory of domestic soda - ash manufacturers has increased. The market is in a weak adjustment, with high supply and weak demand. It is recommended to take a short - selling strategy on rallies in the medium term [92]. 3.2.25 Energy and Chemical Industry (Float Glass) - The inventory of float - glass manufacturers has decreased slightly. The futures price has risen slightly, and the supply - demand pattern has not changed much. It is recommended to consider a long - glass and short - soda - ash cross - commodity arbitrage strategy [93].