Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - A-shares started 2026 with a strong performance, and technology stocks are expected to remain the main theme in the near term. The market may continue to strengthen without further negative news [1][22]. - The US ISM manufacturing PMI was lower than expected, indicating a further weakening of the real economy and a short - term decline in the US dollar [2][16]. - The precious metals market was boosted by the Venezuelan situation, but the impact is limited. There may be short - term selling pressure due to the adjustment of the Bloomberg commodity index weight, and the gold - silver ratio is expected to rise [3][12]. - The cotton market is currently dominated by capital, and there is a risk of a decline if capital exits [4][33]. - Steel prices are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term, with the increase in iron - water production putting pressure on finished - product inventories [5][36]. - Copper prices may fluctuate upward, mainly driven by macro - sentiment, while the fundamentals are currently inconsistent with the price increase [6][52]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US may subsidize the reconstruction of Venezuela's oil infrastructure. The precious metals market was boosted by the Venezuelan situation, but the short - term impact is limited. The adjustment of the Bloomberg commodity index weight will bring short - term selling pressure. The 12 - month ISM manufacturing PMI was slightly lower than expected, mainly due to the inventory component [11][12]. - Investment advice: The short - term price of precious metals will fluctuate, and there is a risk of a decline. The gold - silver ratio is expected to rise [13]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - AI is causing large enterprises to slow down their recruitment. The US ISM manufacturing index hit a one - year low, with the index falling from 48.2 in November to 47.9 and remaining below the 50 mark for the 10th consecutive month. Venezuelan President Maduro pleaded not guilty in the US court. - The US real economy is further weakening, and the US dollar is expected to decline in the short term [14][15][16]. - Investment advice: The US dollar will weaken in the short term [17]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US 12 - month ISM manufacturing PMI unexpectedly shrank, with new orders contracting for the fourth consecutive month, weak export orders, and a continued decline in employment. The overall index was mainly dragged down by the accelerated inventory decline. - Fed official Kashkari said the US interest rate is close to the neutral level. The geopolitical risk has limited impact on the US stock market, and the three major stock indexes rose. The US stock market is expected to remain volatile and strong [18][19]. - Investment advice: The US stock market is expected to operate in a volatile and upward manner, and a long - position approach is recommended [20]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - A - shares started 2026 with a strong performance, with nearly 4,200 stocks rising. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.38%, and the trading volume increased. Nine departments jointly issued a notice to promote green consumption. - The market sentiment is high, and technology stocks are expected to be the main theme. The market may continue to strengthen without further negative news [21][22]. - Investment advice: Continue to hold long positions in stock index futures and allocate evenly among different stock indexes [23]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted a 135 - million - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, with a net withdrawal of 46.88 billion yuan. - The bond market has been weak recently due to multiple factors. The new fee regulations are beneficial to the bond market, but they cannot change the current situation of many macro and micro negatives. The bond market is facing an unfavorable situation at the beginning of 2026, with potential risks of decline if economic indicators exceed expectations [24][25]. - Investment advice: Consider short - hedging strategies and maintain a certain short - hedging position [26]. 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - In the first week of 2026, the inventory of soybeans and soybean meal in major domestic oil mills increased, while the apparent consumption of soybean meal decreased. In December 2025, about 9.0968 million tons of imported soybeans arrived at domestic oil mills, and about 2.301 million tons arrived in the first week of 2026. - The international soybean market has not changed much, and the domestic soybean meal supply - demand situation remains weak. The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills has increased [27][28]. - Investment advice: If South American soybeans have a good harvest, the May contract of soybean meal will remain weak. Continue to monitor national reserve and customs policies [29]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - In November 2025, Japan's textile and clothing imports decreased, and the imports from China decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. India's cotton production is expected to decline by 1.7% in the 2026 cotton year, and the revenue and profit of related enterprises are also expected to decline. The spot cotton market has a cold trading atmosphere, and ginneries are reluctant to sell at low prices. - Zhengzhou cotton futures showed a volatile trend on January 5. The technical and market sentiment are still bullish, but there is a risk of a decline if capital exits due to factors such as the deterioration of cotton yarn production profits and poor price transmission [30][31][33]. - Investment advice: Be vigilant against the risk of a decline if capital exits [34]. 2.3 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Vietnam continued to impose anti - dumping duties on Chinese cold - rolled carbon steel coils for five years, with the tax rate remaining between 4.43% and 25.22%. In 2025, China's heavy - truck market sales reached 1.137 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 26%. - Steel prices are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term. The increase in iron - water production will put pressure on finished - product inventories, and the change in exports also needs attention [35][36]. - Investment advice: Adopt a volatile approach to steel prices in the short term [37]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Malaysia's palm oil inventory is expected to reach a nearly seven - year high in December due to strong production and weak exports. - The palm oil market was weak. The market is expected to see a gradual relief of supply pressure with the continued production reduction in January and the start of Ramadan stocking. - Investment advice: Wait for the signal of supply - pressure relief in January and then gradually build long positions in the May contract [38][39][40]. 2.5 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - On January 5, the price difference between imported steam coal and domestic steam coal was reported. Some traders are optimistic about the short - term coal price and are reluctant to sell, but there are few transactions in the market. - After a continuous decline in December, coal prices stabilized before the New Year's Day. The coal consumption is in a negative - growth state, and the supply side may change. Attention should be paid to whether coal mines will actively reduce production in January [41]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the coal - mine start - up situation in January [42]. 2.6 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - In 2025, more than 11.5 million vehicles were traded in the "trade - in" program. - The iron - ore market remains volatile. With the stabilization of iron - water production in January and low inventory in downstream steel mills, the price is expected to continue to fluctuate. The market is concerned about the steel - mill restocking situation in January [43]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the steel - mill restocking situation in January [44]. 2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - In the statistical period from December 22 to December 28, 2025, the weighted average price of photovoltaic modules was 0.74 yuan/watt, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/watt compared with the previous period. The polysilicon transaction price increased, and the production schedule began to decline. - In January, the polysilicon production is expected to be about 105,000 tons, and the sales quota is about 60,000 tons. Although the production is still in surplus, the actual supply is less than the demand in terms of the sales quota. The polysilicon spot is still considered bullish [45][46]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips. Be cautious when holding positions due to large market fluctuations and regulatory measures [47]. 2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued a guide to promote the high - quality development of the power grid. In the previous week, industrial silicon production in Xinjiang and Sichuan decreased, and the inventory increased. The production cuts in January may lead to a tight balance, but if the cuts are not sustainable, there will be a large - scale inventory accumulation in 2026. - Some large factories started hedging sales after the price increase, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high [48][49]. - Investment advice: Consider short - selling opportunities on rebounds [49]. 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - The new solid - waste management regulations will affect the approval of non - ferrous metal beneficiation projects. The Chilean government is trying to resolve a copper mine strike. The global data center's copper consumption is expected to increase to 740,000 tons in 2026. - Macro - factors continue to support copper prices, but the fundamentals are inconsistent with the price increase in the short term. The domestic copper inventory is expected to increase in January, which will limit the price increase [50][51][52]. - Investment advice: On the long - only side, it is recommended to buy on dips; on the arbitrage side, it is recommended to wait and see [53]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Jien Nickel's 60,000 - ton nickel sulfate project in Pan Shi was put into operation. Due to the non - approval of the nickel - ore RKAB quota in 2026, Vale Indonesia's nickel - ore mining in some areas was suspended. - The suspension has little short - term impact on the supply and demand, but it shows that Indonesia's raw - material supply is tightening. The current price is close to the full cost of NPI, and if the price remains high, some production may resume. The refined - nickel production in January is expected to increase [55][56]. - Investment advice: Consider long - position opportunities on dips. Continue to hold the strategy of selling out - of - the - money puts and buying deep - out - of - the - money calls, and closely monitor the quota release [57]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Tianci Materials plans to conduct a 20 - 30 - day maintenance on its 150,000 - ton liquid lithium hexafluorophosphate production line. - The lithium - carbonate futures price continued to rise. The market is sensitive to positive news. The inventory reduction slowed down last week, the production increased, and the downstream demand is weak. There is a risk of a short - term correction [58][59][60]. - Investment advice: Existing long - position holders can gradually take profits. Adopt a long - on - dips strategy in the medium term [60]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - Ganfeng Lithium's 2.4 - million - ton/year lithium - tin polymetallic mine in Inner Mongolia has been approved, and the mining equipment is being delivered. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's tin futures warehouse receipts decreased, and the LME tin inventory increased. The tin - ore supply is still tight, and the demand is weak. The spot market trading is average [60][61][62]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the supply recovery and demand improvement, and be vigilant against the price decline when the capital enthusiasm fades [63]. 2.13 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The US Energy Secretary plans to meet with oil industry leaders to discuss the "restart" of Venezuela's energy sector. - The oil price first fell and then rose. The change in the Venezuelan situation had little impact on the oil price. There is a high risk of a short - term production decline in Venezuela, and it is difficult to reverse the long - term production decline in the short term. The market has not fully priced in the supply surplus [64][65]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the risk of geopolitical conflicts [66]. 2.14 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - As of January 4, the inventory of asphalt refineries and social inventories increased. The US attack on Venezuela led to the suspension of Venezuelan oil exports and production, strengthening the cost support for asphalt. - The asphalt price was boosted in the short term, but the risk premium may gradually decline [66][67]. - Investment advice: The asphalt price is boosted in the short term, but the risk premium may fade away [67]. 2.15 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong remained stable on January 5. The supply of liquid caustic soda in Shandong was stable, and the downstream demand was weak. - The caustic - soda futures price fell significantly. The supply is at a high level, the downstream demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating. The market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [68][69][70]. - Investment advice: The caustic - soda market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. Pay attention to the cost - side changes [70]. 2.16 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers decreased at the end of 2025. The urea price fluctuated upward. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand from compound - fertilizer enterprises is weak. India's urea tender and the supply reduction in Iran support the international urea price. - The inventory of urea enterprises is decreasing, but the inventory - reduction rate may slow down in the future. Do not chase the rise now. Pay attention to the spring - plowing fertilizer - stocking demand and export - policy changes after the New Year [71][72][73]. - Investment advice: Do not chase the rise now. Consider long - position opportunities after the New Year when there is a certain safety margin [73]. 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - As of January 5, 2026, the pure - benzene inventory in East China ports increased. The pure - benzene market has a high inventory problem, and the demand depends on the restart and load increase of downstream styrene plants. The styrene market is affected by export news and maintenance, and it is expected to be difficult to strengthen further. - The pure - benzene market is expected to remain in a bottom - grinding stage, and the short - term profit growth of styrene is limited. Pay attention to the cost - side changes [74][75][76]. - Investment advice: The pure - benzene market is in a bottom - grinding stage, and the short - term profit growth of styrene is limited. Pay attention to the cost - side changes [76].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content about the report industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - The overall market technical signals of commodity futures show a differentiated pattern. Non-ferrous metals such as alumina and aluminum are bullish; among the black series, iron ore is bullish while rebar is bearish. The signals of energy, chemical, and agricultural products sectors vary, with most varieties showing a sideways trend. Financial futures, including the CSI 500, CSI 1000, SSE 50, and SSE 300 index futures, all show a sideways pattern. Among them, the IC CSI 500 futures are expected to maintain a sideways upward correction in the short term. For treasury bond futures, the 2-year variety shows a sideways trend, while the 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year varieties show bearish signals [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Non-ferrous and Precious Metals Sector - Precious metals like gold and silver show bearish signals, while others show a sideways trend. In the non-ferrous metal sector, alumina and aluminum show bullish signals, zinc and tin show bearish signals, and the rest are mostly sideways [9] - The long - term upward trend of Shanghai copper is clear, but it may enter a short - term adjustment. The monthly line is in the third wave of the upward phase since 2016, with long - term trends unchanged, but the daily line shows a sideways trend [1][13] 2. Black and Shipping Sector - Iron ore shows a bullish signal, rebar, hot - rolled coil, coke, and ferrosilicon show bearish signals, and the rest are mostly sideways. European - line container shipping shows a bearish signal [18] - Rebar prices have been in a downward channel with a gradually rising center of gravity since October 2021. Currently, technical momentum is insufficient, and it is expected to continue to move sideways above the support range [21] 3. Energy and Chemical Sector - In the energy sector, LPG shows a bullish signal, and low - sulfur fuel oil shows a bearish signal, with others being sideways. In the chemical sector, propylene and polypropylene show bullish signals, while pure benzene and pulp show bearish signals, and the rest are mostly sideways [27] - Methanol has short - term upward momentum, with key resistance in the range of 5300 - 5500 yuan/ton [1][30] 4. Agricultural Products Sector - Soybean No. 1 and sugar show bullish signals, while soybean No. 2, palm oil, rapeseed meal, corn starch, and apples show bearish signals, and the rest are mostly sideways [36] - Sugar prices are under significant short - term bearish pressure, and although there may be a technical rebound due to oversold conditions, the overall downward pattern is difficult to change [1] 5. Stock Index Futures Sector - The SSE 50, CSI 500, CSI 1000, and SSE 300 index futures all show a sideways pattern. The IC CSI 500 futures are expected to maintain a sideways upward correction in the short term, but potential reversal signals need to be monitored [2][47] 6. Treasury Bond Futures Sector - The 2 - year treasury bond futures show a sideways trend, while the 5 - year, 30 - year, and 10 - year treasury bond futures show bearish signals. The 10 - year treasury bond futures are mainly sideways, and attention should be paid to the price trend next week [2][53]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The domestic economic outlook is expected to improve in Q1 2026, but short - term geopolitical risks may suppress risk assets [1][18]. - The short - term strengthening of the US dollar index is due to rising geopolitical risks after the US's actions in Venezuela [3][12][13]. - The stock index long - position strategy should be continued, while the bond market may still face downward pressure after a rapid rise [19][22]. - Different commodities have different trends. For example, palm oil may face supply pressure, and copper prices are mainly affected by macro factors [24][52]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The arrest of the Venezuelan president by the US has increased geopolitical tensions, but the impact on the financial market is expected to be limited. Short - term precious metals may face correction risks [10]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US's actions in Venezuela have raised geopolitical risks, causing the US dollar index to strengthen in the short term. The US dollar is expected to rise in the short term [3][12][13]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US air strike on Venezuela may cause short - term market risk aversion, but the market risk appetite is expected to improve. US stocks are expected to operate in a volatile and slightly stronger manner [15][16]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The domestic economic outlook is expected to improve, but short - term geopolitical risks may suppress risk assets. The long - position strategy for stock indices should be continued [18][19]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The new fee rate regulations are short - term positive for the bond market, but cannot reverse the bearish sentiment. It is recommended to consider short - selling at high prices [2][22]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - In December 2025, Malaysian palm oil production and exports decreased, and the inventory may exceed 3 million tons. It is advisable to wait for India's increased purchases and consider going long at low levels [23][24][25]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - CBOT soybeans declined due to poor export prospects. Domestic soybean crushing is expected to decrease in January. Soybean meal is expected to decline with CBOT soybean futures prices [28][29]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - The global sugar market is expected to have a small surplus in 2025/26. The sugar price may be sensitive to weather and production changes. Pay attention to the actual stocking and sales progress [30][32][33]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - The US cotton export demand is weak, and the Indian import tariff exemption has expired. The external market is expected to remain in a low - level shock. Be wary of the risk of a decline in Zhengzhou cotton [38][39]. 2.5 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Before the New Year's Day holiday, the inventory of five major steel products continued to decline, but the speed slowed down. The steel price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, waiting for the accumulation of market contradictions [44][45]. 2.6 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The price of steam coal in the northern port market was stable on December 31, 2025. The demand is weak, and attention should be paid to the coal mine's production in January [45][46]. 2.7 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The Samarco mine expansion project was suspended. The iron ore price is expected to continue to fluctuate. Pay attention to the steel mills' raw material replenishment after January [47][48]. 2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Macro factors have a great impact on copper prices. Fundamentally, short - term price increases are restricted. It is recommended to buy at low prices [52]. 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Indonesia's supply contraction expectation is being realized. Unilaterally, it is advisable to consider going long at low levels. For arbitrage, pay attention to the 03 - 05 reverse spread opportunity [55][56]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - There may be short - term callback pressure, and it is recommended to consider going long at low levels in the medium term [58][59][60]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Polysilicon enterprises have raised spot quotes. It is advisable to consider going long at low levels, but investors should hold positions carefully [60][61]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The current production reduction scale of industrial silicon is insufficient to reverse the inventory accumulation pattern in 2026. It is recommended to short at high prices after a rebound [63][64]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - The supply and demand contradictions of tin are alleviated, and attention should be paid to the risk of price decline caused by the withdrawal of funds [68]. 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The fundamental contradictions of lead are marginally alleviated. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach both unilaterally and in terms of arbitrage [69][70]. 2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The short - term fundamentals of zinc have no obvious contradictions. Unilaterally, wait for the opportunity to take profits at high prices; for arbitrage, take a wait - and - see approach [71][72][73]. 2.16 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The EU carbon price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term [74]. 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The short - term risk premium of crude oil prices may rise moderately, and the long - term supply growth depends on US investment [75][76].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's new energy vehicle market penetration has rapidly increased in the past few years, exceeding 50% in 2025. In 2025, the domestic market shifted to "anti - involution", and exports gradually became a new growth point [3][122]. - Considering the overseas market trade environment, trade protectionism in Europe and the United States is severe, while countries along the Belt and Road and the Middle East have good development prospects. Regarding the development of the overseas new energy vehicle market itself, the development space of new energy vehicles in non - US regions is generally optimistic [3][122]. - In terms of the competition pattern, the market share of self - owned brands continues to expand. Enterprises with strong product capabilities, smooth overseas expansion, and high supply stability will be the core beneficiaries [3][122]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market Tracking - The report shows the one - week price changes of related sectors and listed companies, including the closing prices and one - week price change percentages of many vehicle manufacturers and power battery and material companies [12][15]. 3.2产业链数据跟踪 3.2.1 China New Energy Vehicle Market Tracking - **Sales and Exports**: Information on China's new energy vehicle sales, penetration rate, domestic sales, and exports is presented through relevant charts [16][18][20]. - **Inventory Changes**: Charts show the monthly new additions of new energy passenger vehicle channel inventory and manufacturer inventory [25][26]. - **Delivery Volume of Chinese New Energy Vehicle Enterprises**: The monthly delivery volumes of many new energy vehicle companies such as Leapmotor, Li Auto, XPeng, and NIO are presented [29][30][35]. 3.2.2 Global and Overseas New Energy Vehicle Market Tracking - **Global Market**: Charts show global new energy vehicle sales, penetration rate, and sales of EV and PHV [40][41][43]. - **European Market**: Information on European new energy vehicle sales, penetration rate, and sales of EV and PHV in countries like the UK, Germany, and France is presented [45][46][51]. - **North American Market**: Charts show North American new energy vehicle sales, penetration rate, and sales of EV and PHV [59][60][62]. - **Other Regions**: Information on new energy vehicle sales, penetration rate, and sales of EV and PHV in regions like Japan, South Korea, and Thailand is presented [63][64][67]. 3.2.3 Power Battery Industry Chain - Information on power battery loading volume (by material), export volume (by material), weekly average price of battery cells, and costs of cell materials is presented. It also includes data on the operating rates and prices of various battery materials such as ternary materials, phosphoric acid iron lithium, and negative electrode materials [79][81][84]. 3.2.4 Other Upstream Raw Materials - The daily prices of rubber, glass, steel, and aluminum are presented [100][101][102]. 3.3 Hot News Summaries 3.3.1 Industry Dynamics: China - In 2026, the implementation details of the car trade - in subsidy were introduced. The subsidy method changed from fixed - amount subsidy to subsidy based on the proportion of the new car's selling price, with the subsidy cap remaining unchanged [107]. - Four departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly issued the "Implementation Plan for the Digital Transformation of the Automobile Industry", proposing two - stage development goals and six key tasks [109]. - According to the Passenger Car Association, from December 1 - 28, the new energy retail sales increased by 5% year - on - year, and the cumulative retail sales since this year increased by 18% year - on - year [110]. 3.3.2 Enterprise Dynamics - BYD's sales in December 2025 were 420,398 vehicles. In 2025, its annual sales of pure - electric vehicles exceeded Tesla's for the first time, ranking first globally [112]. - Geely Auto's sales in December 2025 were 236,817 vehicles. It announced a sales target of 3.45 million vehicles in 2026 [113][115]. - Chery Group's sales in December 2025 were 244,928 vehicles. In 2026, it aims to have a sales growth rate 10 - 20 percentage points higher than the industry average [116][118]. - Xiaomi Auto's delivery volume in December 2025 exceeded 50,000 vehicles, and its delivery target in 2026 is 550,000 vehicles. It also plans to launch four new models in 2026 [119]. 3.4 Industry Views - From December 1 - 28, 2025, the retail growth rate of the domestic passenger car market was - 17%, and the new energy growth rate was + 5%. As of December 28, 2025, the cumulative annual growth rates were 4% and 18% respectively. Self - owned brands such as BYD and Geely remained strong, and exports became a new growth point [120]. - The US new energy vehicle market declined in November 2025, while the European and other regions showed growth. Overall, the development space of new energy vehicles in non - US regions is optimistic [121]. 3.5 Investment Suggestions - China's new energy vehicle market penetration rate has rapidly increased, and exports have become a new growth point. Non - US regions have good development prospects, and self - owned brands with certain advantages will be the core beneficiaries [122].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The trading volume of the commodity options market increased slightly this week, with an average daily trading volume of 8.17 million lots and an average daily open interest of 7.17 million lots, showing week - on - week changes of +10.16% and +5.30% respectively. Investors are advised to focus on potential market opportunities in actively traded varieties [1][7]. - The underlying futures of commodity options showed mixed price movements. Some varieties with high weekly increases include nickel (+4.81%), glass (+2.84%), and soybeans No. 1 (+2.74%); those with high weekly decreases include lithium carbonate (-6.85%), silver (-6.74%), and tin (-4.62%) [2][14]. - Most commodity options' implied volatility increased weekly. For varieties with implied volatility at a historical high, investors should be wary of one - sided risks and consider short - volatility opportunities; for those at a historical low, buying options has a higher cost - performance ratio [2][14]. - The PCR of trading volume and open interest of different varieties reflects different market sentiment. Some varieties have a concentrated short - term bearish or bullish sentiment [2][14]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Commodity Options Market Activity - The average daily trading volume of the commodity options market this week was 8.17 million lots, and the average daily open interest was 7.17 million lots, with week - on - week changes of +10.16% and +5.30% respectively [1][7]. - The actively traded varieties in terms of daily average trading volume this week included silver (1.11 million lots), PTA (0.64 million lots), and p - xylene (0.64 million lots) [1][7]. - Five varieties had a trading volume increase of over 100%, with significant growth in p - xylene (+292%), pure benzene (+122%), and cotton (+107%) [1][7]. - Varieties with a significant decline in trading volume were pulp (-74%), rebar (-59%), and bitumen (-57%) [1][7]. - The varieties with high average daily open interest this week were glass (0.54 million lots), soda ash (0.48 million lots), and cotton (0.38 million lots). Ethylene glycol had a rapid week - on - week increase in open interest (+118%) [1][7]. 2. This Week's Main Data Review of Commodity Options 2.1 Underlying Price Movements - Varieties with high weekly increases included nickel (+4.81%), glass (+2.84%), and soybeans No. 1 (+2.74%) [2][14]. - Varieties with high weekly decreases included lithium carbonate (-6.85%), silver (-6.74%), and tin (-4.62%) [2][14]. 2.2 Market Volatility - Most commodity options' implied volatility increased weekly, and 45 varieties' current implied volatility was above the 50th percentile of the past year [2][14]. - Varieties with implied volatility at a historical high included silver, nickel, aluminum, copper, pulp, cotton, and plastic. Those at a historical low included iron ore and soybean oil [2][14]. 2.3 Options Market Sentiment - The trading volume PCR of lithium carbonate, tin, and apple was at a historical high, indicating a concentrated short - term bearish sentiment. The trading volume PCR of zinc, polypropylene, live pigs, cotton, and methanol was at a one - year low, indicating a concentrated bullish sentiment [2][14]. - The open interest PCR of lithium carbonate, silver, and p - xylene was at a historical high, while that of alumina, plastic, ethylene glycol, zinc, and aluminum was at a one - year low, reflecting different levels of bullish and bearish sentiment [2][14]. 3. Key Data Overview of Main Varieties - This chapter presents key data of main varieties, including trading volume, volatility, and options market sentiment indicators. Detailed data of more varieties can be found on the Dongzheng Fanwei official website (https://www.finoview.com.cn/) [19]. 3.1 Energy - Relevant data charts such as total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of crude oil are provided [21][22]. 3.2 Chemicals - **PTA**: Data charts of total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR are provided [27][33]. - **Caustic Soda**: Data charts of total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR are provided [36][38]. - **Glass**: Data charts of total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR are provided [43][44]. - **Soda Ash**: Data charts of total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR are provided [49][51]. 3.3 Precious Metals - Data charts of total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of silver are provided [58][59]. 3.4 Ferrous Metals - **Iron Ore**: Data charts of total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR are provided [72][68]. - **Manganese Silicide**: Data charts of total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR are provided [74][75]. 3.5 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Data charts of total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR are provided [81][87]. - **Aluminum**: Data charts of total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR are provided [90][93]. 3.6 Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: Data charts of total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR are provided [97][100]. - **Palm Oil**: Data charts of total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR are provided [103][104]. - **Cotton**: Data charts of total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR are provided [109][110].

1. Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The price of iron ore is supported by pre - holiday restocking by steel mills due to low raw material inventories and stable molten iron production, but the market remains cautious about the recovery of terminal demand after the Spring Festival. The price lacks continuous driving force and is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the short term, with attention needed on the sustainability of post - holiday restocking and changes in the steel mill start - up rhythm [3]. - The overall market situation shows a relatively loose supply - demand relationship. The expectation of winter restocking provides short - term resilience, but high inventories restrict the upward space. There are significant differences in short - term trends due to the game between the expectation of winter restocking and high inventory pressure [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Supply - **Global Shipment Volume**: This week, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3,677.10 tons, a week - on - week increase of 212.60 tons (+6.14%); Australian shipments were 2,113.70 tons, a week - on - week increase of 163.10 tons (+8.36%); Brazilian shipments were 945.90 tons, a week - on - week increase of 81.80 tons (+9.47%); the combined shipment volume of Australia and Brazil was 3,059.60 tons, a week - on - week increase of 244.90 tons (+8.70%) [3][36]. - **Four Major Mines' Shipment Volume**: The report presents the shipment volume data and trends of four major mines (BHP, Rio Tinto, FMG, and Vale) in different time periods [44][45][48]. - **Freight Rates**: The freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao dropped to $8.91/ton, a week - on - week decrease of $1.45/ton (-13.99%); the freight rate from Brazil to Qingdao was $23.62/ton, a week - on - week decrease of $0.68/ton (-2.80%) [56]. - **Iron Ore Arrival**: This week, the arrival volume of iron ore at 45 ports in China was 2,601.40 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 45.30 tons (-1.71%) [58]. - **Domestic Mines**: The capacity utilization rate of 266 domestic mines was 57.90%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.86% (-1.46%); the daily output of iron concentrate was 36.56 tons/day, a week - on - week decrease of 0.54 tons/day (-1.46%) [60]. 3.2 Demand - **Steel Enterprise Production**: The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills in the country was 85.26%, a week - on - week increase of 0.32% (+0.38%); the daily average molten iron output was 227.43 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.85 tons (+0.38%); the profit - making ratio of steel mills was 38.10%, a week - on - week increase of 0.87% (+2.34%) [70]. - **Sintered Powder and Furnace Charge Ratio**: The daily average consumption of domestic sintered powder was 7.82 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.02 tons (-0.26%); the daily average consumption of imported sintered powder was 60.70 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.39 tons (-0.64%) [72]. - **Global Steel Output**: The report shows the production data and trends of global blast furnace pig iron, crude steel, and China's blast furnace pig iron and crude steel in different time periods [80][82][84][87]. - **Port Despatch**: The report presents the seasonal data and trends of 45 - port despatch volume and the daily average despatch volume of Qingdao Port [92][94]. 3.3 Inventory - **Port Inventory**: The iron ore inventory at 45 ports in China was 15,970.89 tons, a week - on - week increase of 112.23 tons (+0.71%); the iron ore inventory at 47 ports in China was 16,721.79 tons, a week - on - week increase of 101.83 tons (+0.61%) [96]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: The imported ore inventory of 247 sample steel mills was 8,946.54 tons, a week - on - week increase of 86.35 tons (+0.97%); the imported sintered powder inventory was 1,261.72 tons, a week - on - week increase of 55.47 tons (+4.60%) [105]. 3.4 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market**: - **Main Contract Situation and Basis**: The price of the main contract fluctuated strongly, with a settlement price of 789.50 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 15.50 yuan/ton (+2.00%); the basis was 41.83 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 15.00 yuan/ton (+55.90%); the Platts Iron Ore Price Index was 108.50 dollars/dry ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.70 dollars/dry ton (+0.65%); the ratio of rebar to iron ore in the main contract was 3.961 [7]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The inter - month spread structure continued to be in contango, with the 9 - 1 spread at 36.50 yuan/ton, the 1 - 5 spread at 15.50 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread at 21.00 yuan/ton [9]. - **Spot Market**: - **Iron Ore Spot Price**: The report shows the price trends of various iron ore products such as the Platts Iron Ore Index, port spot prices, and Tangshan 66% iron concentrate powder [20][21]. - **Price Difference between Lump Ore and Powder Ore**: The report presents the price difference trends between different types of lump ore and powder ore [23][26]. - **Price Difference between Different Grades**: The report shows the price difference trends between different grades of iron ore [29][31]. 3.5 Other Information - **Weekly Focus on Iron Ore**: It includes important news and industrial chain dynamics, such as the suspension of the expansion project of Brazil's Samarco mine due to environmental permit issues and various macro - news [4]. - **Summary of Market Views**: There are 5 bullish views, 7 neutral views, and 3 bearish views this week; last week, there were 5 bullish views, 7 neutral views, and 1 bearish view. The core of the divergence lies in the game between the expectation of winter restocking and high inventory pressure under the relatively loose supply - demand situation [6]. - **Profit Situation**: The profit of Tangshan rebar was - 105.04 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 21.96 yuan/ton (-17.29%); the profit of Tangshan hot - rolled coil was - 118.58 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 21.69 yuan/ton (-15.46%) [112].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, all bond futures contracts closed down, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts falling by 0.36%, 0.11%, 0.07%, and 0.03% respectively. The December manufacturing PMI exceeded market expectations, causing bond futures to decline. For commodity factors, overall returns were still positive last week, but due to external market disturbances, the volatility of commodity factor returns has increased. It is recommended that investors focus on commodity factors with long - term expected return capabilities and adopt a balanced allocation approach to prevent risks [6][29]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Treasury Bond Futures Market Review - Last week, all bond futures contracts closed down. The 30 - year main contract fell 0.36%, the 10 - year main contract fell 0.11%, the 5 - year main contract fell 0.07%, and the 2 - year main contract fell 0.03%. The basis of each variety was differentiated, and the basis of the CTD bonds of the 10 - year and 30 - year bonds on the 31st was lower than the historical average of the same maturity. The December manufacturing PMI exceeded market expectations, with both supply and demand expanding simultaneously and new kinetic energy showing strong performance, leading to a decline in bond futures [6]. - In 2025, for the 10 - year treasury bond, the Sharpe ratios of the basis factor, risk assets, and member positions were 1.68, 1.93, and 0.59 respectively; for the 5 - year treasury bond, the Sharpe ratios of high - frequency capital flow, intraday volume - price, risk assets, member positions, and basis factor were 2.51, 2.27, 1.71, 1.33, and 0.78 respectively; for the 2 - year treasury bond, the Sharpe ratios of high - frequency capital flow, basis factor, intraday volume - price, and member positions were 2.45, 1.82, 1.59, and 0.82 respectively [6][21][22]. 3.2 Commodity CTA Factor and Tracking Strategy Performance 3.2.1 Commodity Factor Performance - In the last week of 2025, domestic commodities fluctuated greatly, with a relatively balanced number of rising and falling varieties. Gold, lithium carbonate, polysilicon, and tin fell by more than 3%, while silver had large fluctuations but was almost flat for the week. Nickel, glass, and methanol rose by more than 3%. The overall return of commodity factors was still positive, with term structure, volume - price trend, and long - term spot value factors showing profitability. The return of the position - trading volume ranking factor, which reflects market trading sentiment, decreased significantly last week, and the return of the volatility factor also decreased slightly. Due to external market disturbances, the volatility of commodity factor returns has increased. It is recommended that investors focus on commodity factors with long - term expected return capabilities, avoid actively increasing trading cycles and predicting directions, and adopt a balanced allocation approach to prevent risks [29][31][32]. 3.2.2 Tracking Strategy Performance - **CWFT Strategy**: Annualized return of 9.2%, Sharpe ratio of 1.58, Calmar of 1.05, maximum drawdown of - 8.81%, recent weekly return of 0.75%, and year - to - date return of 4.52%. Last week, it held 24 varieties with a net position of 22.1%, total position return of - 0.2%, and a winning rate of 45.8%. This week, it holds 24 varieties with a net position of 20.8%, and one variety needs to be rolled over, with a total turnover capital ratio of 18.7% [30][37]. - **C_frontnext & Short Trend Strategy**: Annualized return of 11.3%, Sharpe ratio of 1.72, Calmar of 1.69, maximum drawdown of - 6.72%, recent weekly return of 0.08%, and year - to - date return of 3.94%. Last week, it held 24 varieties with a net position of - 8.2%, total position return of - 0.2%, and a winning rate of 58.3%. This week, it holds 24 varieties with a net position of 9.9%, and one variety needs to be rolled over, with a total turnover capital ratio of 64.8% [30][39]. - **Long CWFT & Short CWFT Strategy**: Annualized return of 12.1%, Sharpe ratio of 1.36, Calmar of 0.92, maximum drawdown of - 13.07%, recent weekly return of 1.94%, and year - to - date return of 0.73%. Last week, it held 24 varieties with a net position of 65.2%, total position return of 0.2%, and a winning rate of 50.0%. This week, it holds 24 varieties with a net position of 60.7%, and one variety needs to be rolled over, with a total turnover capital ratio of 25.4% [30][41]. - **CS XGBoost Strategy**: Annualized return of 6.0%, Sharpe ratio of 1.00, Calmar of 0.36, maximum drawdown of - 16.76%, recent weekly return of - 0.17%, and year - to - date return of - 9.21%. Last week, it held 24 varieties with a net position of 0.0%, total position return of - 0.1%, and a winning rate of 45.8%. This week, it holds 24 varieties with a net position of 0.0%, and one variety needs to be rolled over, with a total turnover capital ratio of 51.3% [30][43]. - **RuleBased TS Sharp - combine Strategy**: Annualized return of 11.9%, Sharpe ratio of 1.55, Calmar of 1.43, maximum drawdown of - 8.26%, recent weekly return of - 0.24%, and year - to - date return of 10.15%. Last week, it held 46 varieties with a net position of 5.0%, total position return of - 0.6%, and a winning rate of 37.0%. This week, it holds 46 varieties with a net position of 30.9%, and two varieties need to be rolled over, with a total turnover capital ratio of 50.6% [30][44]. - **RuleBased TS XGB - combine Strategy**: Annualized return of 11.9%, Sharpe ratio of 2.07, Calmar of 2.64, maximum drawdown of - 4.49%, recent weekly return of 0.04%, and year - to - date return of 8.27%. Last week, it held 46 varieties with a net position of - 4.6%, total position return of - 0.1%, and a winning rate of 39.1%. This week, it holds 46 varieties with a net position of - 10.9%, and two varieties need to be rolled over, with a total turnover capital ratio of 45.0% [30][46]. - **CS strategies, EW combine Strategy**: Annualized return of 12.6%, Sharpe ratio of 1.78, Calmar of 1.70, maximum drawdown of - 7.38%, recent weekly return of 0.88%, and year - to - date return of - 2.11% [30]. - Among the above six strategies, the Long CWFT & Short CWFT strategy performed best last week with a return of 1.94%, and the CWFT strategy performed best since 2025 with a return of 4.52%. The equal - weighted composite strategy of the above cross - sectional strategies (equal - weighted weekly returns) has an annualized return of 12.6%, a Sharpe ratio of 1.78, a Calmar of 1.70, a maximum drawdown of - 7.38%, a recent weekly return of 0.88%, and a year - to - date return of - 2.11% [51].

周度报告—工业硅/多晶硅 新疆大厂减产落地，多晶硅成交中枢上移 | [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] | | 工业硅：震荡/多晶硅：震荡 | | 孙伟东 | 有色金属首席分析师 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2026 年 | 1 月 4 | 日 | 从业资格号: | F3035243 | | [★Ta工bl业e_硅Summary] | | | | 投资咨询号: | Z0014605 | | | | | | Tel: | 8621-63325888 | | 根据铁合金在线，本周新疆减产 | 16 | | 台，其中包括新疆大厂西 | Email: | weidong.sun@orientfutures.com | 联系人 从业资格号: F03130556 肖嘉颖 分析师 （有色金属） Email： jiaying.xiao@orientfutures.com [★Ta工bl业e_硅Summary] 根据铁合金在线，本周新疆减产 16 台，其中包括新疆大厂西 部基地因环保停炉 12 台，预计春节后复产，关注实际情况。 四川减产 3 台，枯水期仅 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for lithium carbonate is "Oscillation" [1] Core Viewpoints - In January, there is a pressure of inventory accumulation, and attention should be paid to the short - term callback risk. The lithium salt prices showed a strong trend last week (12/22 - 12/26), with significant price increases in futures and spot prices. However, the week of (12/29 - 12/31) saw a high - level callback in lithium salt futures prices, while the spot prices continued to rise. The SMM weekly inventory reduction amplitude continued to slow down, with upstream and downstream continuing to reduce inventory and the trading link accumulating inventory. In January, both supply and demand are expected to weaken marginally. Downstream cathode material factories have announced production cuts, which may lead to inventory accumulation and short - term price corrections. For trading strategies, early long positions can be gradually closed for profit, and in the medium term, the idea of buying on dips can still be adopted [2][11][12] Summary by Directory 1. January Faces Inventory Accumulation Pressure, Pay Attention to Short - Term Callback Risk - **Price Changes**: In the week of 12/22 - 12/26, LC2601 and LC2605 futures prices increased by 16.5% and 17.2% respectively. SMM battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate spot prices increased by 14.6% and 14.9% respectively. In the week of 12/29 - 12/31, LC2601 and LC2605 futures prices decreased by 6.1% and 6.8% respectively, while SMM battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate spot prices increased by 5.9% and 5.7% respectively. The prices of lithium hydroxide also showed corresponding changes [2][11] - **Fundamentals**: The SMM weekly inventory reduction amplitude continued to slow down, with a reduction of 168 tons. The supply side increased by 259 tons in weekly production. In January 2026, lithium salt production is expected to decrease by 1230 tons to 97,970 tons. Downstream cathode material factories plan to cut production, with ternary cathode production expected to decline by 4.43% and lithium - iron cathode production by 10.03% in January, which may lead to inventory accumulation [3][12] 2. Weekly Industry News Review - **Sichuan Gongchuang Lithium - New Energy Project**: The 10.5 - billion - yuan lithium - battery project of Sichuan Gongchuang Lithium - New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. was approved, with a planned annual production of 140,000 tons of battery - grade lithium carbonate [13] - **Shengxin Lithium Energy's Acquisition**: Shengxin Lithium Energy plans to acquire a 30% stake in Qicheng Mining for 2.08 billion yuan, aiming to increase its control over Huirong Mining, which owns the Murong lithium mine with 989,600 tons of Li2O resources [13] - **Zijin Mining's Production Plan**: Zijin Mining expects its net profit in 2025 to be between 51 billion and 52 billion yuan, with a lithium carbonate equivalent output of about 25,000 tons. In 2026, it plans to produce 120,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent [14] 3. Key High - Frequency Data Monitoring of the Industrial Chain 3.1 Resource End: Lithium Concentrate Prices Rise with the Market - Lithium concentrate prices increased, with the lithium spodumene concentrate spot average price (6%, CIF China) rising from $1,490/ton to $1,548/ton, a 3.9% increase [12] 3.2 Lithium Salt: Slight Increase in Production, Marginal Slowdown in Inventory Reduction Slope - **Production**: SMM weekly production increased by 259 tons, with contributions from different sources such as salt lakes, spodumene, mica, and recycling [3][12] - **Inventory**: The SMM weekly inventory reduction amplitude slowed down, with upstream and downstream reducing inventory and the trading link accumulating inventory [3][12] 3.3 Downstream Intermediates: Lithium Iron Phosphate Prices Expected to Continue Rising - The spot average prices of lithium iron phosphate (power - type and energy - storage type) increased, and it is expected that the prices will continue to rise [12] 3.4 Terminal: High - Growth in Power Battery Installations - China's power battery installations maintained a high - growth trend, and the new energy vehicle production and sales also showed positive year - on - year growth [54][56]

周度报告-黄金 多头获利了结，贵金属高位回落 [走Ta势bl评e_级Ra：nk] 黄金：震荡 报告日期： 2026 年 1 月 4 日 [★Ta市bl场e_综Su述mm：ary] 伦敦金跌 4.4%至 4332 美元/盎司。10 年期美债收益率升至 4.19%， 通胀预期 2.26%，实际利率微升至 1.93%，美元指数涨 0.46%至 98.4， 标普 500 指数跌 1.03%，人民币升值破 7，沪金维持折价。 贵 金 属 贵金属冲高回落，白银剧烈波动，国际银价一度上涨至 82 美元/ 盎司后下跌至 72.8 美元/盎司，当周收跌 8.2%。随着 12 月交割月 的结束白银短期逼空行情告一段落，CME 一周两度上调黄金、白 银等贵金属保证金，上海期货交易所亦小幅上调贵金属保证金， 交易所降温意图明显，多头在元旦假期前获利了结离场。1 月 8-14 日，Bloomberg 商品指数迎来年度权重调整，由于 2025 年贵金属 涨幅显著高于能源、农场品等其他大宗商品，贵金属权重需要被 动降低，跟踪该指数的基金也需要相应做出调整，短期会给贵金 属带来抛压，波动预计仍会增加，但不改变长期趋势。 基本面维度关注即将公 ...