周度报告——商品期权 商品期权周报：2026 年第 8 周 期权市场情绪：当前沥青、白银、合成橡胶、玻璃成交量 PCR 位于历史高位，市场短期集中博弈下跌预期；烧碱、LPG 成 交量 PCR 处于近一年低位，市场集中博弈上涨预期；沥青、 合成橡胶、纸浆、PVC 持仓量 PCR 位于历史高位，市场对 下跌的博弈情绪已积累至较高水平；而棕榈油、菜油、白银、 黄金、多晶硅、铁矿石等持仓量 PCR 位于近一年低位，市场 对看涨的博弈情绪积累。 ★ 风险提示 模型风险、政策风险、末日轮极端行情 报告日期： 2026 年 2 月 23 日 ★ 商品期权市场活跃度 节前最后一周（2026.02.09-2026.02.13）商品期权市场成交活 跃度继续下滑，日均成交量为 663 万手，日均持仓量为 821 万手，环比变化分别为-22.34%和-11.72%。分品种来看，日均 成交活跃的品种主要包括白银（83 万手）、PTA（60 万手）、 玻璃（34 万手）。此外，成交量增长较为显著的品种为豆一 （+214%）、镍（+100%）。与此同时，成交量下降较为明 显的品种则有多晶硅（-94%）、燃油（-89%）、工业硅（-88%） ...

全球宏观及大类资产配置周报 东证衍生品研究院 宏观策略组 2026年2月24日 上海东证期货有限公司 目录 一、宏观脉络追踪 二、全球大类资产走势一览 三、大类资产周度展望 ——贵金属、外汇、美股、A股、国债 四、全球宏观经济数据跟踪 一、宏观脉络追踪 宏观脉络追踪 美伊局势进一步恶化，地缘政治风险居高不下。美伊双方在日内瓦如期举行了第二轮美伊谈判，双方立场仍 存在差距，在核问题上的分歧难以弥合，同时双方军事动作不断，特朗普考虑对伊朗进行军事打击以迫使伊 朗接受美方要求，地缘政治风险推动能源、贵金属等大宗商品震荡转强。美国经济数据呈现出滞胀态势，受 政府关门拖累GDP增速回落至1.4%，同时核心PCE超出预期，1月会议纪要也显示美联储官员内部分歧加 大，美联储维持观望态度。关税政策再生变数，最高法院推翻特朗普关税后，约有1750亿美元关税面临退 款，但特朗普立即寻求加征15%的临时对等关税并通过各类法条加征行业关税，关税政策不确定性加大， 市场避险情绪升温，短期波动难以降低。 春节假期期间中国权益资产表现疲弱，主要受到海外关税政策扰动以及美国科技公司盈利担忧的映射，节后 临近两会召开，将再度迎来宏观的混乱期， ...

周度报告——风险管理 期货技术分析周报：2026 年第 8 周 报告日期： 2026 年 2 月 24 日 ★商品期货 根据周度期货技术指标信号分析，贵金属板块黄金和白银以 震荡为主。有色板块中，镍和氧化铝显示看涨信号，多晶硅 和铝合金看跌，其余品种震荡。沪铜主力节前周线收近似十 字星，底部支撑仍存，但短期震荡，建议关注节后价格波动， 可在 10 万至 10.3 万元/吨区间逢低建仓。黑色板块热卷、铁 矿石、硅铁、焦煤看跌，欧线集运及剩余品种震荡；螺纹钢 短期震荡偏弱，日线空头排列，关注 3000-3040 元/吨支撑。 能源板块燃料油和低硫燃料油看涨，其余震荡。化工板块尿 素、烧碱、纯苯看涨，甲醇、苯乙烯、乙二醇看跌，其余品 种震荡；PTA 周线维持 5000-5400 元/吨震荡区间，短期震荡 为主。农产品板块玉米淀粉、鸡蛋、豆一、菜籽粕、玉米、 苹果、红枣看涨，棕榈油看跌，其余震荡；玉米主力短期震 荡，日线反弹但面临周线压力，支撑位 2220-2250 元/吨，压 力位关注周度 MA120。 ★金融期货 根据期货技术指标信号分析，股指期货方面，中证 500（IC） 显示看涨信号，但短期以震荡为主。周线 ...

热点报告——外汇期货 美国 1 月非农远超预期， 短期降息预期降温 货 总体而言，1 月非农大幅超出市场预期，新增就业和薪资环比增速 均有所回升，缓解了对于就业市场恶化的担忧。但是 2025 年全年 新增就业人数大幅下修 89.8 万人，仅靠单月数据仍难以判断就业 市场已扭转下行趋势，另外 2 月非农引入人口控制调整可能导致失 业率的大幅修正。数据公布后，短期降息的必要性显著降低，降息 预期推迟，1 月大概率继续暂停降息，2025 年内预计降息 1-2 次， 预计首次降息时间推迟至 6-7 月。 ★投资建议： 近期市场继续消化沃什当选新任美联储主席带来的冲击，降息+缩 表的政策主张引发市场对于未来流动性收紧的担忧，但是短期经济 韧性和通胀黏性限制降息空间，长期美债供给挤压美联储缩表空 间，未来政策落地过程中仍面临多重掣肘。地缘政治风险也仍未消 除，市场波动仍难以降低。前期大幅上涨的贵金属和有色板块在剧 烈下跌后震荡整理，美元指数冲高回落，美债收益率曲线进一步走 陡。科技巨头的巨额资本支出也引发市场对于美国科技股财务健康 的担忧，美股延续高位震荡。 ★风险提示： 经济下行压力超预期，美联储货币政策宽松不及预期， ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Macro - Strategy**: 1) In January, inflation data indicated continuous price recovery. The logic of going long on inflation was initially strengthened, and IC was dominant. 2) Gold prices fluctuated and closed higher. The US January non - farm employment report was better than expected, but the sustainability of the employment market's recovery needed to be observed. Market expectations for interest rate cuts were postponed to July. 3) The US January non - farm payrolls exceeded expectations, and short - term interest rate cut expectations were postponed again. US stocks were expected to maintain high - level fluctuations. 4) The rebound of PPI in January exceeded market expectations. The bond market was expected to remain strong in the short term, but the odds of chasing the rise were limited. Consider shorting when the upward momentum weakened [1][2][3][20]. - **Commodities**: 1) Steel prices were expected to continue the oscillating pattern before the Spring Festival. 2) Coking coal and coke prices were expected to maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term. 3) The USDA February report had a neutral - to - bearish impact on cotton. ICE cotton prices were expected to maintain a weak oscillating pattern at a low level. Zheng cotton was expected to oscillate around the Spring Festival. 4) The palm oil market was expected to oscillate in the short term. Consider going long on dips if Malaysia's market remained weak. 5) The fundamentals of lithium carbonate were improving. After the Spring Festival, it was expected to see both supply and demand increase. Consider going long on dips. 6) For lead, consider mid - term long positions. 7) For zinc, adopt a wait - and - see approach before the Spring Festival and use double - buying for unilateral operations. 8) Crude oil prices were expected to remain oscillating and strong in the short term. 9) LPG prices were expected to be strongly oscillating. 10) For asphalt, adopt a cautious wait - and - see approach [23][26][31][34][38][40][45][48][50][51]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro - Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - In January, CPI increased by 0.2% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 1.4% year - on - year. The logic of going long on inflation was initially strengthened, and the CSI 500 index was dominant. It was recommended to continue holding the long - stock - index strategy [10][11]. 3.1.2 Macro - Strategy (Gold) - The Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusted the automatic conversion standard for silver hedging positions. Gold prices fluctuated and closed higher. The US January non - farm employment report was better than expected, and market expectations for interest rate cuts were postponed to July. It was recommended to reduce positions for the Spring Festival [13][14]. 3.1.3 Macro - Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US January non - farm payrolls exceeded expectations, and short - term interest rate cut expectations were postponed again. US stocks were expected to maintain high - level fluctuations [17][18]. 3.1.4 Macro - Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - In January, CPI was lower than expected, and PPI was better than expected. The bond market was expected to remain strong in the short term, but the odds of chasing the rise were limited. Consider shorting when the upward momentum weakened [19][20][21]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Mexico launched an anti - dumping sunset review investigation on Chinese seamless steel pipes. Steel prices were expected to continue the oscillating pattern before the Spring Festival. It was recommended to adopt an oscillating mindset and pay attention to risks with light positions before the Spring Festival [22][23][24]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The import coking coal forward market was stable and slightly strong. The spot market was expected to remain stable before the Spring Festival, and the futures market was expected to oscillate [25][26][27]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - The USDA February report had a neutral - to - bearish impact on cotton. ICE cotton prices were expected to maintain a weak oscillating pattern at a low level. Zheng cotton was expected to oscillate around the Spring Festival. It was recommended to hold light positions to avoid risks during the long holiday [28][30][31]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The palm oil market was expected to oscillate in the short term. Consider going long on dips if Malaysia's market remained weak. If planning to hold positions for the holiday, it was recommended to use options strategies [33][34][35]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The first part of the national standard for vehicle - use solid - state batteries was planned to be released in July 2026. The fundamentals of lithium carbonate were improving. After the Spring Festival, it was expected to see both supply and demand increase. Consider going long on dips [36][37][38]. 3.2.6 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - High - grade base metal mineralization was discovered in Queensland. Lead was currently in a situation of weak supply and demand. Consider mid - term long positions [39][40][41]. 3.2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Some projects of Chihong Zinc & Germanium had progress. Zinc prices were mainly oscillating. Adopt a wait - and - see approach before the Spring Festival and use double - buying for unilateral operations [42][43][45]. 3.2.8 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - OPEC's January production decreased by 440,000 barrels per day. Crude oil prices were expected to remain oscillating and strong in the short term [47][48][49]. 3.2.9 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - EIA propane weekly data showed certain changes. LPG prices were expected to be strongly oscillating [50]. 3.2.10 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The domestic heavy - traffic asphalt capacity utilization rate decreased. The asphalt market was expected to be light before the Spring Festival. It was recommended to adopt a cautious wait - and - see approach [50][51][52].

日度报告——综合晨报 美联储再度强调独立性，中国央行继续适度 宽松 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2026-02-11 宏观策略（股指期货） 《求是》发文加快培育未来产业 A 股缩量窄幅震荡，科技股依然领先。港股近期止跌回升，或迎 来右侧配置机会。总体看国内权益风险可控，春季躁动可期。 宏观策略（黄金） 美联储洛根：货币政策独立性是根本 综 金价震荡收跌，白银走弱。节前资金逐渐减仓流出贵金属，美 联储官员讲话捍卫独立性，叠加货币政策短期步入观望阶段， 缺乏增量刺激。美国 1 月零售销售数据意外走弱。 合 宏观策略（国债期货） 晨 央行发布 2025 年第四季度中国货币政策执行报告 报 市场消息面较为平静，股市波动不大，资金面略显收敛，国债 期货窄幅震荡。短期市场存在上涨动力，不过追涨性价比不高， 待市场上涨动力趋缓后关注做空机会。 黑色金属（螺纹钢/热轧卷板） 16 家车企公布 1 月产销数据，12 家销量同比增长 钢价延续弱势震荡，节前基本面压力加大，各品种累库压力上 升，加上订单情况一般，市场情绪疲弱，均对钢价形成压制。 但市场谨慎情绪也降低了节后风险，关注是否有低估机会。 农产品（棉花） 棉纱产销 ...

Report Information - Report Title: "Oriental Line Shipping Pulse 2026W07" [3] - Author: Lan Xi - Department: Black and Shipping Department of Orient Securities Derivatives Research Institute - Qualification Numbers: F03086543 (从业资格号), Z0016590 (投资咨询号) Core Findings Loading Rate - In week W6, the average loading rate of the European line fleet departing from China ports reached 93.6%, a 2.2% increase from the previous period (91.4%) [10]. - In week W5, the loading rate of the European line fleet departing from Asian ports was 96.8%, remaining basically flat compared to the previous period (96.7%) [10]. - For different alliances, the OA alliance's China - departing loading rate was 95.9%, up 2.2% from the previous period; the PA + MSC alliance's China - departing loading rate was 94.9%, with a slight 0.5% increase, and its Asian - departing loading rate in week W5 reached 98.6%; the Gemini alliance's China - departing loading rate was 88.9%, up 3.6% from the previous period [10]. Shipping Capacity - The average weekly shipping capacity from late February (weeks W8 - W9) was 224,300 TEUs, slightly lower than the 239,000 TEUs average during the same Spring Festival period last year [13]. - The monthly average weekly shipping capacity in March was 301,000 TEUs, significantly higher than the 258,000 TEUs average during the same period last year. Starting from mid - March, the shipping capacity increased significantly, with the average weekly shipping capacity from weeks W11 - W13 reaching 327,000 TEUs [13]. Shipping Schedule and Index - In week W6, 6 sailings were postponed to week W7, including 1 from Gemini, 1 from OA, and 4 from MSC and PA. The overall operation of Chinese ports was normal. In Shanghai Port, 6 sailings in week W6 were postponed to week W7, and 1 sailing skipped a port [20]. - The SCFIS (European Line) index closed at 1657.94 points, a 7.5% decrease from the previous period [20]. - The actual departing shipping capacity from Shanghai Port on the European line in week W6 was 211,400 TEUs, of which 36% were postponed sailings from week W5. By alliance, the weights of Gemini, OA, PA + MSC, and MSC were 21%, 42%, 23%, and 14% respectively [20]. Port Congestion - In Chinese ports, the average turnaround time at Yangshan Port was about 1.7 days, at Ningbo Port about 2.4 days, and at Yantian Port about 1.3 days. With the approaching Spring Festival, the pressure on domestic ports is expected to gradually ease [23]. - In Southeast Asian ports, the pressure has significantly eased compared to the previous period. The average time ships spent in port at Singapore Port was 1.2 days, and at Port Klang was 1.3 days [23]. - In European ports, the pressure has slightly eased compared to the previous period. However, due to continuous low - temperature and snowfall weather, the port operation outlook remains uncertain. The average time ships spent in port at Antwerp was about 1.5 days, at Rotterdam 2.3 days, at Hamburg 3.5 days, and at Bremen 1.4 days [23].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for liquefied petroleum gas is "oscillating" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the Asian LPG market will remain relatively loose. The Far - East FEI price is expected to oscillate at a low level within a certain range, and the domestic PG price is also expected to follow the range - bound oscillation. The market needs to improve downstream chemical profits to stimulate additional demand and achieve re - balance of the trade flow. Otherwise, the US propane inventory may break through the historical high at the end of 2026 [4][5][114] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2025 Liquefied Petroleum Gas Market Review - In 2025, the liquefied petroleum gas market was greatly affected by unexpected macro and geopolitical events, with significantly amplified volatility and reduced weight of fundamental pricing. In different quarters, various events such as cold snaps, tariff wars, and regional conflicts had different impacts on the market price and trade flow [16][17][22] Trade Pattern Remains Unchanged, and Export Volume is Expected to Increase Steadily - **US**: In 2025, the US LPG production increased, mainly from associated gas and NGL. The export growth rate slowed down due to tariff disturbances and closed arbitrage windows. In 2026, with the expansion of terminal capacity, the export volume is expected to increase by about 7.3% [30][33][40] - **Middle East**: In 2025, the LPG export volume in the Middle East increased, mainly driven by Iran and Iraq. In 2026, the export volume is expected to increase by 3.5% due to the commissioning of gas fields and the high - base effect of crude oil production [50][51][55] Asian Chemical Demand Growth Slows Down - **Southeast Asia**: In 2025, the combustion demand in Southeast Asia, especially in India, Indonesia, and Vietnam, increased. In 2026, India's import growth is expected to slow down, while Indonesia and the Philippines' combustion demand will maintain a stable growth rate [65][66][75] - **PDH**: In 2025, China's PDH capacity increased, but the growth rate slowed down. In 2026, the new effective capacity is relatively limited, and the industry's operating rate is expected to increase slightly, corresponding to a demand increment of about 115 tons [76][80][81] - **Cracking Devices**: In 2025, China's new cracking capacity squeezed out the old - fashioned devices in Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. In 2026, the cracking devices in these regions are not expected to have further incremental demand for LPG. In China, the cracking demand for LPG is expected to decrease by about 50 tons due to tariff and economic factors [87][88][98] Supply - Demand Balance Summary - **China**: In 2026, China's LPG market is expected to see a simultaneous increase in supply and demand, with a slightly looser fundamental situation. The domestic production is expected to increase by 1.5% to 5420 tons, and the import volume is expected to increase by about 125 tons [100][108] - **Global Trade Flow**: There is a supply - demand mismatch in the global LPG trade flow. About 365 tons of supply needs to find new outlets. It is necessary to improve the economy of chemical demand to stimulate additional demand and achieve re - balance [110] Investment Recommendations - The Far - East FEI price is expected to oscillate at a low level within a certain range, and the domestic PG price is expected to oscillate within the range of 3700 - 4700 yuan/ton. Strategies such as C3/C4 price ratio, MB propane reverse - arbitrage, and expanding the spread between the US Gulf and the Far - East can be considered [5][114][115]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - The labor market's downward pressure is increasing, and the US dollar is expected to weaken in the short term [2][16] - The US stock market is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations, and the bond market has upward momentum but also faces adjustment pressure [20][22] - Most commodities show different trends, with some in a weak or strong oscillation state, and the prices of some are affected by supply and demand, policies, and geopolitical factors [25][34][53] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Gold prices oscillated and closed higher, benefiting from the sharp decline of the US dollar index and the existence of certain risk - aversion sentiment. The market's expectation of a March interest - rate cut is about 20%. It is expected that the overall trend of precious metals will be oscillatory before the Spring Festival. It is recommended to reduce positions [12][13] 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Hasset stated that employment data will decline, and the downward pressure on the labor market is increasing. The US dollar is expected to weaken in the short term [14][16][17] 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Google plans to raise about $20 billion through issuing US dollar bonds. The short - term situation of the US stock market is a mix of long and short factors, and it is expected to maintain high - level oscillations [19][20] 1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 113 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 38 billion yuan on the day. The bond market has upward momentum, but the probability of an interest - rate cut in the short term is low. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities after the upward momentum weakens [21][22][23] 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Steel prices continue the weak oscillation pattern. Before the Spring Festival, the fundamental pressure increases, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to treat steel prices with an oscillatory mindset and pay attention to risks with a light position before the festival [25][26] 2.2 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The price of steam coal at Beigang is relatively stable. The Indonesian policy has some impact, but the coal price is seasonally strong, with the policy mainly strengthening the bottom and the upward elasticity being limited [27][28][29] 2.3 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Iron ore prices are still weak and oscillatory. The iron - making process is moderately resuming production, and it is necessary to wait for the order situation in March after the Spring Festival [30] 2.4 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The palm oil inventory has increased. Before the release of the MPOB report, the market is in a wait - and - see state. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of MPOB data and control positions to avoid risks [31] 2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Private exporters sold 264,000 tons of soybeans to China. The CBOT soybeans are oscillating strongly, but the soybean meal inventory in oil mills has reached a record high for the same period. It is expected that the futures price will maintain an oscillation, and the soybean meal will be weaker than the external market [32][33][34] 2.6 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate are improving in reality, but the futures market is greatly affected by macro - sentiment and capital flow. After the Spring Festival, it is expected that the supply and demand will both increase, and the price center may rise significantly. It is recommended to take a bullish approach and pay attention to buying opportunities at low prices [37][38][39] 2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - The macro - negative sentiment is gradually digested by the market, but the short - term fundamentals limit the price increase. It is expected that the price will oscillate widely in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [42][43] 2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The lead market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The price is oscillating, and the decline space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to mid - term long - position opportunities [44][45] 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The zinc market is oscillating. The zinc ore production expectation may change. Before the Spring Festival, the operation difficulty is high. It is recommended to use call options instead for unilateral operations and wait and see for arbitrage [47][48] 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - The semiconductor industry's revenue is expected to reach $1 trillion in 2026. The supply of tin is expected to ease, but there are still uncertainties. The demand is weak. It is expected that the price will oscillate widely [49][51][52] 2.11 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Venezuela's oil production has rebounded. The oil price is oscillating upward, and the risk premium is expected to support the oil price. It is necessary to pay attention to the follow - up negotiations between the US and Iran [53][54] 2.12 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas - LPG) - Due to the geopolitical situation in Iran, the LPG price is expected to oscillate strongly [55][56] 2.13 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The asphalt inventory has increased, and the market trading atmosphere is weak. The demand has basically stagnated. It is necessary to pay attention to the changes in the geopolitical situation [56][57] 2.14 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The supply of urea is relatively abundant, and the demand fluctuation is not obvious. Before and after the Spring Festival, the urea price may oscillate and adjust. It is not recommended to continue to allocate more at the current price [59][60] 2.15 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The pure benzene inventory in East China ports has increased. The styrene market is entering the supply elasticity test stage. The current bullish trading of the styrene futures has temporarily ended. It is recommended to reduce the risk exposure before the festival [61][62] 2.16 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - Affected by the Spring Festival and geopolitical factors, the container freight rate is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [63][64]

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