Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term (1 - 3 months), medium - term (3 - 6 months), and long - term (6 - 12 months) ratings for both industrial silicon and polycrystalline silicon are "oscillation" [1][5] Core Viewpoints - The cancellation of VAT export tax rebates for photovoltaic products from April 1, 2026, will lead to a significant rush of exports in Q1 2026, but it is a negative factor for demand in the whole - year perspective. After the rush - export period, the entire industrial chain will face greater pressure [2][11][12] - In the short term, leading polycrystalline silicon enterprises will maintain price - holding strategies, but the possibility of price - testing at lower prices by second - and third - tier enterprises increases. Polycrystalline silicon prices may oscillate between 50,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton [2][16] - The supply - demand situation of industrial silicon depends on the demand side. In the short term, industrial silicon may operate between 8,000 - 9,200 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to interval operation opportunities [3][18][19] Summary by Directory 1. Industrial Silicon/Polycrystalline Silicon Industry Chain Prices - The Si2605 contract of industrial silicon decreased by 145 yuan/ton week - on - week to 8,715 yuan/ton. The SMM spot price of East China oxygen - blown 553 remained flat at 9,250 yuan/ton, and the price of Xinjiang 99 remained flat at 8,700 yuan/ton. The PS2605 contract of polycrystalline silicon decreased by 6,620 yuan/ton week - on - week to 51,300 yuan/ton. The average transaction price of N - type re - feeding materials from the Silicon Industry Association increased by 5,300 yuan/ton week - on - week to 59,200 yuan/ton [9][10] 2. Polycrystalline Silicon - There were many industry news this week, including rumors of production cuts by leading polycrystalline silicon enterprises, the market supervision department's interview with the photovoltaic industry association and leading enterprises, and the cancellation of VAT export tax rebates for photovoltaic products from April 1, 2026 [11] - It is expected that there will be a significant rush of exports of photovoltaic products in Q1 2026. The expected domestic component production in Q1 2026 is revised upwards to 125GW, a 31% increase from the previous expectation. After April 2026, the annual component export volume is expected to decline by 5 - 10%, and the annual component production will be reduced to about 468GW, a 3% decrease from the previous expectation [12] - During the rush - export window period, downstream sectors have the hope of price increases, but in the whole - year view, the profit pressure on downstream enterprises is greater. After the window period, the cancellation of the export tax rebate will intensify the losses of component enterprises [13] - During the rush - export window period, polycrystalline silicon prices still depend on the price alliance. After the window period, the entire industrial chain will face greater pressure [14] 3. Industrial Silicon - This week, the number of furnaces in Xinjiang increased by 1, Shaanxi increased by 1, and Qinghai decreased by 1. Yunnan's operation rate remained low. An integrated large - scale enterprise may cut industrial silicon production in Sichuan to zero by the end of the month [17] - The improvement of the supply - demand situation of industrial silicon depends on the demand side. The reduction of polycrystalline silicon production is expected to match that of industrial silicon, having no marginal impact on the supply - demand of industrial silicon. The organic silicon price is expected to rise further, and the supply side may adjust due to the cancellation of export tax rebates. The supply and demand of industrial silicon will be in a tight balance from January to February, and there will be significant inventory accumulation after March if the Xinjiang large - scale enterprise resumes production [18] 4. Hot News Compilation - On January 9, the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced the cancellation of VAT export tax rebates for photovoltaic products from April 1, 2026 [20] - A leading enterprise raised the silicon wafer quotation, but no other silicon wafer enterprises followed, and downstream battery enterprises did not accept the price increase. Market sentiment is becoming more wait - and - see [20] 5. High - frequency Data Tracking of the Industrial Chain 5.1 Industrial Silicon - Relevant data charts include China's oxygen - blown 553 spot price, 99 - silicon spot price, national and regional industrial silicon weekly output, and social and factory inventories [22][24][28] 5.2 Organic Silicon - Relevant data charts include China's DMC spot price, weekly profit, factory inventory, and weekly output [30][31] 5.3 Polycrystalline Silicon - Relevant data charts include China's polycrystalline silicon spot price, weekly gross profit, factory weekly inventory, and enterprise weekly output [36][39] 5.4 Silicon Wafers - Relevant data charts include China's silicon wafer spot price, factory weekly inventory, and enterprise weekly output, as well as profit calculations [41][43][45] 5.5 Battery Cells - Relevant data charts include China's battery cell spot price, export factory weekly inventory, and enterprise monthly output, as well as profit calculations [46][47][49] 5.6 Components - Relevant data charts include China's component spot price, component finished - product inventory, and enterprise monthly output, as well as profit calculations [53][56][58]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the gold industry is "Oscillation" [1] Core Viewpoints - The rise in geopolitical risks has led to increased uncertainty, causing precious metals, especially gold, to surge. However, short - term factors such as index rebalancing and margin adjustments may lead to price fluctuations, and the short - term decline risk should be noted. The medium - and long - term bull market pattern remains unchanged [1][2][3] - It is recommended to wait for a pullback before making long - position allocations [4] Summary by Directory 1. Gold High - Frequency Data Weekly Changes - The internal basis (spot - futures) decreased by 0.39 yuan/gram, a change rate of 12.3%. The internal - external futures price difference (internal - external) decreased by 11.94 yuan/gram, a change rate of - 289.0%. The Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory decreased by 51 kg, a change rate of - 0.1%. COMEX gold inventory decreased by 91,052 ounces, a change rate of - 0.25%. SPDR ETF holdings decreased by 0.57 tons, a change rate of - 0.05%. CFTC gold speculative net long positions decreased by 2,617 lots, a change rate of - 2.1%. The U.S. Treasury yield decreased by 0.01%, a change rate of - 0.2%. The U.S. 10 - year break - even interest rate increased by 0.0219%, a change rate of 0.97%. The S&P 500 index increased by 108 points, a change rate of 1.6%. The VIX volatility index remained unchanged, a change rate of - 0.1%. The gold cross - market arbitrage trading decreased by 0.1, a change rate of - 1.3%. The U.S. 10 - year real interest rate decreased by 0.05%, a change rate of - 2.4% [10] 2. Financial Market - Related Data Tracking 2.1 U.S. Financial Market - The U.S. overnight secured financing rate was 3.64%. Oil prices rose 7.3%, and the U.S. inflation expectation was 2.23%. The U.S. dollar index rose 0.7%, and the U.S. Treasury yield dropped to 4.16%. The S&P 500 index fell 1.03%, and the VIX index was 14.5 [16][18] 2.2 Global Financial Markets - Stocks, Bonds, Currencies, and Commodities - Developed - country stock markets mostly rose, with the S&P 500 rising 1.57%. Developing - country stock markets mostly rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 3.82%. Real interest rates dropped slightly to 1.88%, and the gold price rose 4.1%. The spot commodity index closed up, and the U.S. dollar index rose 0.7%. U.S. and German bonds declined, with a U.S. - German yield spread of 1.3%. The UK Treasury yield was 4.37%, and the Japanese bond yield was 2.09%. The euro depreciated 0.7%, the pound depreciated 0.39%, the yen depreciated 0.67%, and the Swiss franc depreciated 1.11%. The U.S. dollar index rose 0.72% to 99.1, and most non - U.S. currencies depreciated [21][24][26][29][32] 3. Gold Trading - Level Data Tracking - Gold speculative position data showed that the SPDR Gold ETF holdings dropped slightly to 1064 tons. The RMB exchange rate fluctuated, and the Shanghai gold remained at a discount. Gold and silver prices rose, and the gold - silver ratio dropped to 56.2 [34][37] 4. Weekly Economic Calendar - Monday: G7 Finance Meeting; Tuesday: U.S. December CPI, Japan closed for a day; Wednesday: China's December import and export data, U.S. November retail sales; Thursday: Federal Reserve Beige Book; Friday: U.S. January NAHB Housing Market Index [38]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for alumina is "oscillation" [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of domestic bauxite has declined, while the supply of alumina has changed little. The alumina market is in an oversupply cycle, with prices expected to transition to a bottom - oscillating phase [1][2][15] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview - **Raw Materials**: Last week, the price of domestic bauxite dropped significantly. The delivered - tax price of 58/5 grade ore in Shanxi decreased to 665 yuan/ton, a reduction of 33 yuan/ton. The import price of 45/3 grade bauxite from Guinea was 65.5 dollars/dry ton. Shunda Mining plans to ship 15 vessels in January and produce 25 - 30 million tons this year. Sinohydro plans to produce 15 million tons this year. During the period, 3.324 million tons of new ore arrived, including 2.242 million tons from Guinea and 1.081 million tons from Australia. The reference price of Cape ships from Guinea to China is 21 dollars/ton [2][12] - **Alumina**: The spot price of alumina decreased last week. The northern comprehensive price of ALD was 2600 - 2680 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week; the domestic weighted index was 2661.7 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.8 yuan/ton. The port price of imported alumina was 2700 - 2740 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton. There were 6 public alumina transactions overseas this week, totaling 180,000 tons, and 3 vessels will be shipped to China later. As of last week, the full cost of domestic alumina was 2657 yuan/ton, and the real - time profit was 57 yuan/ton. The national alumina supply was relatively stable, with a built - in capacity of 114.62 million tons, an operating capacity of 95.85 million tons (an increase of 150,000 tons compared to before the festival), and an operating rate of 83.6%. In terms of demand, the new capacity of the second phase of Inner Mongolia Huomeihongjun Zhalv is being gradually put into production, and the overall operating capacity of the enterprise has increased to 870,000 tons. The domestic operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is 44.413 million tons, a weekly increase of 5,000 tons. There is no change in overseas demand, and the latest overseas operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is 29.781 million tons, unchanged from last week [3][13] - **Inventory**: As of Thursday (January 8th), the national alumina inventory was 4.935 million tons, an increase of 84,000 tons compared to last week. The inventory increase of electrolytic aluminum enterprises slowed down. The inventory of alumina enterprises continued to increase slightly, and the inventory in yards/platforms/in - transit/delivery warehouses also increased [14] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 159,642 tons, an increase of 1,824 tons compared to last week. The alumina futures price oscillated. The alumina industry remains in an oversupply situation, and the inventory continues to accumulate. Considering the current supply and demand, the price previously over - declined. With the introduction of policy expectations, the price rebounded from the bottom, but the industry is still in an oversupply cycle, and the market is expected to transition to a bottom - oscillating phase [15] 2. Alumina Theoretical Import Profit Narrowed - **Northern Import Loss**: As of Friday (January 9th), the price of Australian alumina was about 310 dollars/ton, a 3 - dollar increase compared to December 31st. The estimated cost of reaching northern Chinese ports was about 2736 yuan/ton, a 16 - yuan increase compared to the previous period. The theoretical northern import loss was about 96 yuan/ton. However, due to the rise of the alumina futures market, some merchants turned to overseas to purchase delivery products to lock in profits [16] - **Market Contradictions**: The structural and liquidity contradictions in the alumina market are significantly deviated. Some aluminum plants with high inventories do not purchase on the spot market, and some normal - tendering aluminum plants have stopped tendering temporarily and are watching. Spot - purchasing aluminum plants follow the market or offer firm prices with significant discounts. In recent industrial transactions, 10,000 tons of alumina were traded in Shandong at a price of 2570 yuan/ton, with a discount of about 30 yuan/ton compared to the website quotation and a discount of about 165 yuan/ton compared to the 2602 contract [16] - **Futures Rise and Spot Cooling**: The alumina futures price continued to rise, but the spot market trading atmosphere cooled down compared to before the New Year's Day holiday. The market trading volume was less than 10,000 tons. Traders had previously sold a large amount of spot to futures - cash merchants, and the latter's purchasing volume was approaching the upper limit. Since December 26th, 2025, futures - cash merchants have purchased about 250,000 - 300,000 tons of spot, including about 40% of delivery products and 60% of non - standard products. Currently, futures - cash merchants mainly trade at the 2602 contract price, with quotes in Shandong at 20 yuan/ton lower than the 02 contract, in Henan at 50 yuan/ton higher than the 02 contract, and in Shanxi at 30 yuan/ton higher than the 02 contract [17] 3. Key Data Monitoring of the Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream - **Raw Materials and Cost**: The report presents data on domestic and imported bauxite prices, domestic bauxite port inventory, port shipping volume of major bauxite - importing countries, sea - floating inventory of major bauxite - importing countries, domestic caustic soda price trends, domestic thermal coal price trends, and alumina production costs in each province [18][20][26] - **Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance**: It shows data on alumina spot prices in each province, imported alumina prices, domestic electrolytic aluminum spot prices, and the futures price ratio of electrolytic aluminum to alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange. It also provides a table of the weekly supply - demand balance of domestic alumina from August 2025 to January 2026 [33][40][43] - **Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: The report includes data on alumina inventory in electrolytic aluminum plants, alumina plants, domestic yards/platforms/in - transit, ports, and the total social inventory of alumina, as well as the warehouse receipt volume and holding volume of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange [46][50][55]

Group 1: Investment Rating - The走势 rating for lithium carbonate is "oscillation" [1] Group 2: Core Views - Last week (1/5 - 1/9), lithium salt prices continued to rise. LC2601's closing price increased by 15.6% week - on - week to 139,000 yuan/ton, and LC2605's closing price rose by 18% to 143,000 yuan/ton. SMM's average spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 18.1% and 18.2% respectively [2][12] - On January 9th, two departments announced a reduction in the VAT export tax - rebate rate for battery products from 9% to 6% from April 1st, 2026, to December 31st, 2026, and the cancellation of the VAT export tax rebate from January 1st, 2027. This will lead to a short - term rush to export batteries, increasing battery production and benefiting lithium carbonate. In the long run, it reflects the country's "anti - involution" policy. Lithium salt prices are expected to remain strong [3][13] - The second "anti - involution" meeting in the terminal battery industry aims to rectify irrational behaviors such as blind capacity construction and low - price competition. Cell prices may be more likely to rise than fall, facilitating the price - passing mechanism in the lithium - battery industry chain [3][13] - Inventory data shows off - season accumulation, but the production schedules of cathode factories have been revised upwards by multiple third - party institutions, indicating that the feature of non - weak demand in the off - season is becoming stronger [3][13][14] - Currently, high market sentiment and the rush to export strengthen the expectation of non - weak demand in the off - season. Lithium salt prices may continue to rise, showing a tendency to be more likely to rise than fall. Existing long positions can be held, while new long positions need to be carefully protected [3][14] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Policy Stimulates Short - term Battery Export Rush, Lithium Salt Demand Not Weak in Off - season - Lithium salt prices continued to rise last week. LC2601 and LC2605 closing prices, as well as SMM's average spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, all increased significantly. The electric - industrial price difference widened, and the price discount of battery - grade lithium hydroxide to battery - grade lithium carbonate narrowed [2][12][13] 2. Weekly Industry News Review - Zhongkuang Resources' 30,000 - ton high - purity lithium salt technical renovation project was ignited for trial operation on January 2nd, 2026. After the project is put into production, the company will have a total annual production capacity of 71,000 tons of battery - grade lithium salt [15] - Two lithium iron phosphate listed companies confirmed price increases of 1,500 - 2,000 yuan/ton [15] - The first batch of price negotiations for lithium iron phosphate in the new year has landed. Most customers have accepted a processing fee increase of 1,000 yuan/ton, and there are two options for lithium carbonate settlement [16] - On January 9th, 2026, the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced adjustments to the VAT export tax - rebate policy for battery products [13][16] 3. Key High - frequency Data Monitoring of the Industry Chain 3.1 Resource End: Lithium Concentrate Prices Rise with the Market - Lithium concentrate prices follow the upward trend of the market [17] 3.2 Lithium Salt: Slight Increase in Production, Marginal Inventory Accumulation under Off - season Pressure - Lithium salt production increased slightly, and inventory accumulated marginally during the off - season [19] 3.3 Downstream Intermediates: Cathode Material Prices Expected to Rise Continuously - Cathode material prices are expected to continue rising [45] 3.4 Terminal: Anti - involution in the Battery Industry, Focus on the Upward Momentum of Cell Prices - The battery industry's anti - involution efforts may drive up cell prices [59]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for treasury bonds is "Oscillating" [4] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Treasury bond futures fluctuated and declined this week. Although there may be a short - term rebound next week, the medium - term outlook remains bearish. The bearish macro - and micro - level logics for treasury bonds, especially ultra - long bonds, are long - term, so it's necessary to be cautious when betting on a rebound [1][2][13] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. One - Week Review and Views 1.1 This Week's Trend Review - From January 5th to 11th, treasury bond futures fluctuated and declined. Various factors such as changes in stock markets, commodity markets, central bank policies, and inflation data affected the daily trends of treasury bond futures. By January 9th, the settlement prices of the main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were 102.338, 105.570, 107.775, and 110.870 yuan respectively, down 0.108, 0.160, 0.050, and 0.510 yuan from last weekend [1][11] 1.2 Next Week's View - There may be a short - term rebound in the bond market next week, but the adjustment pressure remains in the medium term. Factors that may trigger a rebound include stock market adjustments, rising expectations of reserve requirement ratio cuts, and weak economic indicators. However, the factors suppressing the bond market are long - term, and there won't be a major opportunity for the bond market to strengthen in the short term [13][14] 2. Weekly Observation of Interest - Bearing Bonds 2.1 Primary Market - This week, 58 interest - bearing bonds were issued, with a total issuance volume of 763.234 billion yuan and a net financing amount of 349.184 billion yuan. The net financing amount of treasury bonds, local government bonds, and inter - bank certificates of deposit all increased [17][18][20] 2.2 Secondary Market - Treasury bond yields rose. By December 31st, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds were 1.44%, 1.65%, 1.88%, and 2.31% respectively, up 6.46, 2.10, 3.03, and 3.50 basis points from last weekend. The spreads of 10Y - 1Y, 10Y - 5Y, and 30Y - 10Y all widened [23][24][25] 3. Treasury Bond Futures 3.1 Price, Trading Volume, and Open Interest - Treasury bond futures fluctuated and declined. By January 9th, the settlement prices of the main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures changed compared to last weekend. The trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures this week were 42,234, 70,459, 86,203, and 125,268 lots respectively, with changes of - 35, - 8,144, - 14,320, and - 103 lots from last week. The open interests were 76,124, 166,548, 245,351, and 181,430 lots respectively, with changes of - 2,902, + 814, + 3,386, and + 13,012 lots from last week [31][34] 3.2 Basis and IRR - This week, the IRR of each variety generally declined, and the opportunity for cash - and - carry arbitrage strategies is not obvious. Recommended cash - and - carry strategies include laying out short - hedging strategies after the market rebounds and moderately paying attention to widening the basis strategy [38] 3.3 Inter - Delivery and Inter - Variety Spreads - By January 9th, the inter - delivery spreads of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures contracts 2603 - 2606 were - 0.042, + 0.005, + 0.090, and - 0.140 yuan respectively, with changes of + 0.002, - 0.005, + 0.085, and + 0.070 yuan from last weekend [44] 4. Weekly Observation of the Funding Situation - From January 5th to 9th, the central bank conducted 102.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with 1.3236 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1.2214 trillion yuan. The funding rates such as R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week all declined. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase increased [46][47][50] 5. Weekly Overseas Observation - The US dollar index strengthened slightly, and the yield of 10Y US treasury bonds fluctuated within a narrow range. By January 9th, the US dollar index rose 0.69% to 99.14 compared to last weekend, and the yield of 10Y US treasury bonds was 4.18%, down 1 basis point from last weekend. The Sino - US 10Y treasury bond yield spread was inverted by 229.9 basis points [56][57] 6. Weekly Observation of High - Frequency Inflation Data - This week, industrial product prices rose across the board, and agricultural product prices showed mixed trends. By January 9th, the South China Industrial Product Index, Metal Index, and Energy and Chemical Index all increased compared to last weekend. The prices of pork, 28 key vegetables, and 7 key fruits also changed compared to last weekend [60][62] 7. Investment Recommendations - It is recommended to pay attention to the short - selling strategy on rallies. Specific strategies include not chasing the high in the short - term rebound next week, paying attention to short - hedging strategies, moderately paying attention to steepening the yield curve strategy after the long - end varieties strengthen, and moderately paying attention to widening the basis strategy [2][15][19]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "oscillation" [2] Core View - The December non - farm payrolls in the US fell short of expectations, and the job market continued to cool. The new employment center continued to decline, but the unemployment rate dropped again, and the overall downward risk was still controllable. The market's expectation for interest rate cuts remained cautious after the data was released, with a high probability of a pause in rate cuts in January, and 1 - 2 rate cuts within 2026 likely to occur in the second half of the year [3][4][39] Summary by Relevant Catalog US 12 - month Non - farm Payrolls and Job Market Analysis - Non - farm payroll data: In December, non - farm payrolls added 50,000 jobs, less than the market expectation of 60,000. The average monthly new jobs in the past 12 months were 48,000, and the new employment center further declined. The new employment numbers in October and November were revised down by a total of 76,000. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.4%, lower than the market expectation and the previous value, and the labor participation rate marginally declined to 62.4%. The hourly wage growth rate was 0.3% month - on - month, up from the previous value and in line with expectations, and 3.8% year - on - year, higher than expectations and the previous value [3][9] - Sector - specific employment: New employment mainly came from leisure and hospitality (47,000), education and healthcare (41,000), and government (13,000). All industries in the production sector laid off workers, and the manufacturing industry was still under pressure due to high interest rates. The drag on employment from the government sector eased, and the service industry maintained employment resilience [3] - Private service employment: Private service employment added 58,000 jobs, up from the previous value. However, the retail industry laid off 25,000 workers for the third consecutive month, and the employment structure continued to deteriorate [19] - Government employment: In December, government employment increased by 13,000, with federal government employment increasing slightly by 2,000. Since January 2025, federal government employment has decreased by 277,000, a decline of 9.2%, and the subsequent drag on the job market from the government sector may ease [19] - Service industry employment: The end - of - year consumer demand rebounded, and employment in the catering service industry increased. The ISM service PMI in December rebounded significantly to 54.4, and the employment sub - index rose to 52, indicating that the service employment market remained resilient [23] - Production sector employment: The production sector continued to lay off workers, with a reduction of 21,000 jobs in December. The ISM manufacturing PMI in December further declined to 47.9, and the traditional manufacturing industry was still suppressed in a high - interest - rate environment [26] - Job vacancies: In November, the number of job vacancies dropped to 7.15 million, lower than expectations and the previous value. The service industry's job vacancies decreased significantly, while the production sector's job vacancies increased slightly [30] - Wage growth: In December, wage growth rebounded marginally, with a month - on - month growth rate of 0.3% and a year - on - year growth rate of 3.8% higher than expectations. Most industries saw a rebound in wage growth, except for construction, professional and business services, and education and healthcare [34] - Working hours: In December, the average weekly working hours were 34.2 hours, slightly lower than expectations and the previous value. Most industries saw a decline in working hours, and the overall economic situation was stable [36] Investment Recommendations - Geopolitical risks have increased recently, with the Trump administration's military actions in Venezuela and its interest in Greenland's sovereignty. This has triggered short - term market risk - aversion sentiment, providing support for the US dollar index and precious metals. Economic data is mixed, and the market's expectation for the new Fed chair is divided between Hassett and Waller. The expectation for interest rate cuts remains cautious, with the US Treasury yield oscillating upwards and the US stock market oscillating at a high level [5][44]

Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a bullish rating for nickel [1] Core Viewpoints - The report believes that Indonesia's determination to reduce nickel supply cannot be ignored, but the quantity may be slightly relaxed from the "250 million wet tons". Under the neutral assumption, the global nickel ore production in 2026 is expected to reach 3.712 million metal tons, a year-on-year decrease of 10%, while Indonesia's nickel ore production will be about 2.2 million metal tons, a year-on-year decrease of 18.4%. The stainless steel sector is expected to contribute a stable year-on-year positive growth of about 4% in 2026, and the ternary demand is expected to increase by 8% year-on-year. The report suggests paying attention to the opportunity of buying on dips unilaterally, and being cautious about chasing long positions. For internal and external arbitrage, it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of laying out internal and external reverse arbitrage (positive arbitrage) when the import loss is relatively high (low). For inter - period arbitrage, pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunity under the deep C structure [2][4][5] Summary by Directory 1. Mining End - Indonesia's RKAB approval quota has been guiding the price trend of the nickel market. In late 2025, it was revealed that the government planned to cut the nickel ore mining quota to about 250 million tons in 2026. However, implementing this quota may face difficulties, so it is assumed that the annual quota is 300 million tons for calculation. Under this assumption, the global nickel ore production in 2026 will reach 3.712 million metal tons, a year-on-year decrease of 10%, and Indonesia's nickel ore production will be about 2.2 million metal tons, a year-on-year decrease of 18.4% [15][31][32] - The supply supplement from the Philippines may be limited, and the average grade of its nickel ore is decreasing. The resumption of production of Australian nickel mines has harsh conditions, and the cost before shutdown has increased [21][26] 2. Smelting End 2.1 Nickel Iron & Intermediate Products - In the absence of raw material restrictions, the low - cost production capacity (HPAL + oxygen - enriched side - blowing) in the smelting end is expected to increase by 120,000 and 50,000 metal tons respectively in 2026, and gradually replace the high - cost RKEF conversion to ferronickel. However, under the assumption of a 300 - million - ton RKAB, the RKEF conversion may not be completed in 2026. It is estimated that the output of RKEF conversion to ferronickel will decrease by 50,000 metal tons year - on - year to 244,000 metal tons, while HPAL and OESBF will increase by 20,000 and 7,000 metal tons respectively [3] - The cost of Indonesian NPI integration is about $10,650 per metal ton for the full cost and about $9,950 per metal ton for the cash cost. In 2026, the output of Indonesian NPI is expected to increase by 60,000 metal tons year - on - year to 1.755 million metal tons [34][40] - In 2025, the output of RKEF conversion to ferronickel decreased significantly year - on - year, while the oxygen - enriched side - blowing production of ferronickel increased significantly. In 2026, the output of oxygen - enriched side - blowing ferronickel is expected to increase to 114,000 metal tons, a year - on - year increase of 50,000 metal tons, and the output of RKEF conversion to ferronickel is expected to decrease to about 130,000 metal tons [45][47] - The demand for MHP is strong, and its price performance is excellent. In 2026, the output of Indonesian MHP is expected to increase by 1.2 million metal tons year - on - year to 5.8 million metal tons [52][59] 2.2 Primary Nickel - In 2025, China's refined nickel production increased significantly year - on - year, and the output of nickel sulfate increased slightly. In 2026, if there is no supply - side contraction, the inventory pressure of refined nickel will be similar to that in 2025 [63] 3. Demand End 3.1 Stainless Steel - The demand for stainless steel is restricted by the real estate market, and the growth rate of traditional demand is limited. However, the sales of household appliances are driven by the trade - in policy, and the shipbuilding and machinery manufacturing industries also show good growth, supporting the consumption of stainless steel in the hot - rolled field. In 2026, the nickel consumption of China's stainless steel is expected to increase by 4% year - on - year to about 1.562 million metal tons, and the global nickel consumption is expected to be about 2.388 million metal tons [79][98] 3.2 New Energy - In 2025, China's new energy vehicle production and sales increased significantly year - on - year, and the penetration rate continued to rise. In 2026, affected by the reduction of purchase tax incentives, the growth rate of the new energy vehicle market may decline, but there is still policy support. It is estimated that the wholesale sales of new energy vehicles in China will increase by 16% year - on - year to 19.206 million vehicles. The new energy commercial vehicle is expected to increase by 44% year - on - year to 1.3 million vehicles [101][102][108] - In 2025, the sales of new energy vehicles in Europe increased significantly year - on - year. In 2026, with the support of subsidy policies, the high - growth trend is expected to continue, with an estimated year - on - year increase of 26.6% to 4.942 million vehicles. In the United States, affected by policy changes, the sales of new energy vehicles are expected to decline in 2026 [112][113][115] - In 2025, China's ternary precursor production increased slightly year - on - year, and the capacity utilization rate was less than 50%. In 2026, the demand for ternary materials is expected to increase by about 8% year - on - year to 405,000 metal tons. In the long term, technologies such as quaternary batteries and solid - state batteries may bring new growth potential to the demand for nickel [123][131][135] 4. Investment Suggestions 4.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet and Market Outlook - Under the assumption that RKAB does not significantly limit, the supply surplus in 2026 will be basically the same as that in 2025, about 380,000 - 390,000 metal tons, and the accumulation of visible inventory may be about 200,000 metal tons. If RKAB gives about 300 million tons, the supply surplus will be about 50,000 - 60,000 metal tons, and the visible inventory may show a downward trend [141] 4.2 Investment Suggestions - It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips unilaterally, and be cautious about chasing long positions. The pyrometallurgical cost can be used as the cost support below the market. If the Indonesian quota is gradually released and appears loose in the middle of the year, the price range may move down, and the cost of integrated hydrometallurgy can be used as the anchor. If the RKAB quota is 300 million tons, the core price range is 125,000 - 140,000 yuan/ton; if there is no significant limit, the core price range will move down to 100,000 - 130,000 yuan/ton [144]

特朗普已对于美联储主席人选做出决定，这意味着货币政策加 速时机接近，美元短期承压。 宏观策略（黄金） CME 上调贵金属保证金 日度报告——综合晨报 特朗普称必须拥有整个格陵兰，CME 上调贵金 属保证金 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2026-01-09 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 特朗普：必须"拥有"整个格陵兰 综 金价波动加大最 v 型反弹收涨，白银收跌，8-14 日 Bloomberg 商 品指数权重调整带来贵金属的抛压尚未交易充分，但地缘政治 风险引发的避险情绪仍在。 合 宏观策略（股指期货） 晨 A 股窄幅震荡，成交小幅缩量 报 金融股出现明显调整，监管层面或有为市场降温的倾向。但市 场仍仅小幅收跌，微盘股再度强势。我们维持市场仍处于慢牛 格局的判断，近期宏观利空基本被消化。 黑色金属（螺纹钢/热轧卷板） Mysteel 五大品种库存周环比增加 21.77 万吨 由于需求的季节性回落，加之元旦假期和钢厂复产的原因，五 大品种库存转而出现回升。短期黑色虽受外围金属强势带动， 但基本面风险犹存。 有色金属（铜） S&P：AI 将使铜需求到 2040 年增长 50% 市场乐观情绪因为宏观预期 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index)**: Maintain a volatile outlook [15] - **Macro Strategy (Gold)**: Short - term, beware of continued correction risks, consider going long on the gold - silver ratio [20] - **Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures)**: Expected to run strongly with a volatile trend, maintain a bullish view [25] - **Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures)**: Continue to hold long - term strategies [27] - **Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures)**: Market is weak, not recommended to bet on oversold rebounds; if there is a rebound, consider short - selling opportunities [30] - **Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil)**: Short - term sentiment dominates, steel prices may rebound further, but still need to beware of risks [34] - **Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke)**: Short - term trends are less related to fundamental changes, focus on capital sentiment and policy news [37] - **Black Metal (Steam Coal)**: Prices expected to remain stable in January [40] - **Black Metal (Iron Ore)**: Prices expected to remain strong in the next two weeks [41] - **Agricultural Products (Cotton)**: Be cautious of the risk of price drops due to capital withdrawal [46] - **Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal)**: Futures prices have rebounded from lows, pay attention to state - reserve sales and customs policies; the May contract lacks a basis for continuous sharp increases under a bumper South American harvest [47] - **Agricultural Products (Hogs)**: Unilateral: Go short on near - term contracts on significant rebounds; Arbitrage: Maintain a reverse arbitrage strategy [51] - **Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil)**: If the MPOB report is not overly bearish and high - frequency data shows continued production cuts and increased exports, consider long positions on the May contract; for rapeseed oil, be cautious due to policy uncertainties [54] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon)**: Consider avoiding short positions for the time being. When the price rises above 9000 RMB/ton, consider short positions based on industry hedging conditions [58] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Lead)**: Both unilateral and arbitrage strategies suggest a wait - and - see approach [62] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc)**: Unilateral: Be cautious about chasing up prices, and take profits on previous long positions in batches; Arbitrage: Wait and see for both monthly spreads and internal - external spreads [65] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon)**: The industry pattern may change significantly. Consider buying put options to participate in the market [69] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Copper)**: Unilateral: Wait patiently for opportunities to buy on dips; Arbitrage: Wait and see [73] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate)**: The market is sensitive to positive information, prices are expected to remain strong, but be cautious about chasing up [76] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel)**: Closely observe short - term capital intentions, and set acceptable stop - losses when going long [77] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Tin)**: Pay attention to supply recovery and demand improvement, beware of price drops when the capital enthusiasm fades [81] - **Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil)**: Market concerns about oversupply continue to suppress oil prices [83] - **Energy and Chemicals (Asphalt)**: Prices expected to be volatile [85] - **Energy and Chemicals (Styrene)**: Temporarily treat the market as volatile in the short term [89] - **Energy and Chemicals (PTA)**: Short - term volatile adjustment, consider going long on dips [92] - **Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash)**: In the capacity expansion cycle, maintain a bearish view in the medium term, recommend short - selling on the far - month contracts [94] - **Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass)**: The FG contract is expected to fluctuate between 900 - 1250 RMB/ton in 2026, recommend short - selling on rallies. Pay attention to potential supply - side changes [97] 2. Core Views - The US ADP employment showed moderate growth, indicating a mild downward trend in the labor market, and the US dollar index fluctuated [14] - Gold prices fluctuated and declined, the precious metals sector corrected, and funds shifted between commodity sectors [18] - The Shanghai Composite Index recorded 14 consecutive positive days. A - shares continued to rise with increasing trading volume. Despite market concerns about regulatory cooling, the market still has strong momentum due to abundant domestic liquidity and a bullish pattern [27] - International steam coal prices were stable with a slight upward trend. Although there were news of capacity reduction in Yulin, overall supply was expected to remain stable in 2026 due to new mine production and weak demand, and coal prices were expected to be stable in January [40] - The BMI predicted that the merger and acquisition boom in the mineral metals industry would continue in 2026. Macro factors supporting copper prices may weaken, and short - term fundamentals may suppress copper price increases, with copper prices likely to shift to a volatile pattern [73] - US EIA commercial crude oil inventories decreased, but gasoline and refined oil inventories increased significantly, and oil prices fluctuated weakly [82] 3. Summaries by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump plans to ban Wall Street from investing in single - family homes, aiming to reduce housing prices, which may impact private equity owners and homebuilder stocks [12] - US ADP private - sector employment increased by 41,000 in December, mainly driven by the service industry, indicating a mild recovery in the labor market. The US dollar index is expected to remain volatile [13][14][15] 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Gold) - US ADP employment in December was 41,000, slightly lower than expected. The ISM non - manufacturing PMI in December was 54.4, higher than expected [16][17] - China's official gold reserves increased by 300,000 ounces in December 2025. Gold prices fluctuated and declined, the precious metals sector corrected, and short - term precious metals still face downward risks [18][19] 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US Energy Secretary will "indefinitely" control Venezuelan oil sales. The US 12 - month ISM services PMI reached a new high in more than a year, but the employment market demand continued to cool down. The US stock market is expected to be volatile and strong [21][22][24][25] 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The Shanghai Composite Index recorded 14 consecutive positive days. A - shares were in a bullish sentiment with increasing trading volume. The market has strong momentum due to abundant liquidity [26][27] 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank will conduct a 1.1 - trillion - yuan repurchase operation. The bond market is affected by commodity price increases. The overall bond market logic is bearish, and short - selling on rebounds is recommended [28][29][30] 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - In December, the retail sales of passenger cars decreased by 13% year - on - year, and the wholesale sales decreased by 10% year - on - year. Steel prices rebounded due to the strong performance of metal prices. Short - term steel prices may continue to rise due to market sentiment, but the actual supply - demand situation is difficult to improve significantly [31][32][33][34] 3.2.2 Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke) - The price of coking coal in the Linfen market remained stable. The recent sharp increase in coking coal futures was mainly driven by macro capital rotation and news sentiment, with limited connection to fundamentals. The short - term trend is mainly affected by capital and sentiment [35][36][37] 3.2.3 Black Metal (Steam Coal) - International steam coal prices were stable with a slight upward trend on January 7. Although there were capacity reduction news in Yulin, overall supply was expected to remain stable in 2026, and coal prices were expected to be stable in January [38][40] 3.2.4 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - The third - stage expansion of the Tonkolili iron ore project in Sierra Leone is advancing. Iron ore prices are expected to remain strong in the next two weeks due to the expected increase in iron - making water production and the low inventory of steel mills [41] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - The US cotton planting area in 2026 may slightly decrease. The new cotton import quota policy has stimulated the domestic import cotton market, but the large inflow of imported cotton and yarn may impact the domestic market. Zhengzhou cotton futures may face a risk of price drops due to capital withdrawal [42][43][45][46] 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Brazil exported 3.383 million tons of soybeans in December. China is still purchasing US soybeans. The price of domestic soybean meal futures has rebounded from lows, but the May contract lacks a basis for continuous sharp increases under a bumper South American harvest [47] 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Hogs) - The sales volume of hogs of some companies increased in December. The hog futures market has a short - term high - level shock, but the medium - term fundamentals are weak, and short - selling on rebounds is recommended [48][50][51] 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 4.64% in December. Indonesia may confiscate 5 - million - hectare palm plantations in 2026. The short - term trend of the oil market depends on MPOB data and high - frequency data [52][53][54] 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - An organic silicon industry meeting may discuss measures to boost market confidence. The price of industrial silicon followed the increase of coking coal. In the long term, the oversupply pattern of industrial silicon is difficult to change [55][56][57][58] 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead price had a high - level correction, and the domestic waste battery supply was tight. The lead price is expected to be volatile and strong in the short term [59][60][61][62] 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc price fluctuated and corrected. The short - term zinc price may follow macro fluctuations, and the medium - term price is likely to be easy to rise and difficult to fall [63][64][65] 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - There are rumors of production cuts by leading polysilicon companies, and the market is concerned about antitrust issues. The polysilicon industry pattern may change significantly, and buying put options is recommended [66][67][68][69] 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - The BMI predicted that the merger and acquisition boom in the mineral metals industry would continue in 2026. The short - term copper price is likely to shift to a volatile pattern, and waiting for opportunities to buy on dips is recommended [70][73] 3.2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - A company plans to invest 3.688 billion yuan in a lithium ore project. The lithium carbonate market is sensitive to positive information, and prices are expected to remain strong, but be cautious about chasing up [74][75][76] 3.2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - LME nickel inventory increased significantly. The nickel price has been strong due to supply reduction expectations, but be cautious when going long and set stop - losses [76][77] 3.2.16 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand is weak. Pay attention to supply recovery and demand improvement, and beware of price drops when the capital enthusiasm fades [78][79][80][81] 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - US EIA commercial crude oil inventories decreased, but gasoline and refined oil inventories increased significantly, and oil prices fluctuated weakly [82][83] 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Asphalt) - The capacity utilization rate of domestic asphalt refineries decreased. The asphalt price is expected to be volatile [84][85] 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - The inventory of styrene in the East China main port decreased. The market is concerned about the impact of the new naphtha consumption tax policy on the cost of olefins and aromatics. The short - term market is expected to be volatile [86][87][88][89] 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - The PTA spot basis was strong. The short - term PTA market is in a volatile adjustment stage, and going long on dips is recommended [90][91][92] 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The price of soda ash in the Shahe area was stable. The soda ash futures price increased due to macro sentiment. In the capacity expansion cycle, the medium - term trend of soda ash is bearish [93][94] 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in the Hubei market was stable. The glass futures price increased due to market sentiment. The supply - side changes in 2026 may affect the glass market, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [95][96][97]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided in the given content Core Views - The global geopolitical risk is potentially rising due to Trump's consideration of using force to seize Greenland, leading to short - term volatility in the US dollar index [1][15] - Gold prices continue to rise, and there is an increased willingness to go long on commodities. However, there are risks of short - term market fluctuations and precious metal corrections [2][12][13] - A - shares are extremely strong at the beginning of the year, and the market has entered a bullish phase. It is recommended to hold long positions in the short term [3][22][23] - The steel market is expected to continue its range - bound pattern in the short term due to insufficient accumulation of contradictions [4][29][30] - The overall market sentiment for lithium carbonate is more sensitive to bullish information, and the price is expected to remain strong, but caution is needed when chasing long positions [5][46][47] - Oil prices have fallen, with a decline in US API crude oil inventory but a significant increase in gasoline and diesel inventories [6][58][59] Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Trump and his team are discussing plans to acquire Greenland, and Fed official Milan expects data to support further interest rate cuts [11][12] - Gold prices continue to rise, and there is increased enthusiasm for short - term market speculation. The probability of a January interest rate cut is low, and attention should be paid to the next Fed chair selection and the adjustment of the Bloomberg commodity index weights [12] - It is recommended to be aware of the risk of precious metal corrections in the short term and consider going long on the gold - silver ratio [13] 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US will support Ukraine if it is attacked by Russia again, and Trump warns of potential impeachment if he loses the mid - term elections. Trump is considering using the military to seize Greenland [14][15] - The global geopolitical risk is potentially rising, and the US dollar index will fluctuate in the short term [15] - It is expected that the US dollar will fluctuate in the short term [16] 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Trump's government is discussing plans to acquire Greenland, and there are differences among Fed officials regarding future interest rate cuts [17][18][19] - Short - term geopolitical risks remain, and the market reaction is limited. Future Fed decisions will mainly depend on data trends [19] - It is expected that the US stock market will fluctuate strongly, and a bullish approach should be maintained [20] 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, and A - shares are extremely strong at the beginning of the year [21][22] - The market has entered a bullish phase, and trading volume is the key indicator. It is recommended to hold long positions in the short term [22][23] 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank carried out a 162 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, resulting in a net withdrawal of 2963 billion yuan on the day [25] - The bond market is in a headwind situation, and it is recommended not to bet on oversold rebounds. Short - selling opportunities can be considered if there is a rebound [26][27] 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Handan lifted the emergency response to heavy pollution weather [28] - Steel prices are expected to continue their range - bound pattern in the short term due to insufficient accumulation of contradictions and potential pressure on finished product inventories [29] - A range - bound approach is recommended for steel prices in the short term [30] 2.2 Black Metal (Steam Coal) - The price of steam coal in the northern port market was stable with a slight upward trend on January 6 [31] - Short - term coal prices are expected to continue their weak and volatile pattern, and attention should be paid to daily consumption and pre - holiday start - up changes [31] 2.3 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - Fenix Resources' quarterly iron ore shipments reached a new high [31] - The iron ore price is expected to have strong short - term support but limited upside [32] 2.4 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 31.12% from January 1 - 5, while production decreased by 34.48% [33][34] - There are preliminary signs of supply pressure relief, but there is still high uncertainty. It is recommended to lightly position long on the 05 contract in advance and add positions gradually after clear bullish signals [34] 2.5 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Sugar production data from different regions in China shows a mixed picture, with overall weak demand [35][36][37] - The Zhengzhou sugar futures main contract is expected to be range - bound. Attention should be paid to the start of pre - holiday stocking demand and sugar mill production and sales progress [38] 2.6 Non - Ferrous Metal (Lead) - On January 5, the LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount of $45.52 per ton [39] - Lead prices are expected to maintain a volatile and slightly bullish pattern, and it is recommended to wait and see both for single - side and arbitrage strategies [39][40] 2.7 Non - Ferrous Metal (Zinc) - On January 5, the LME 0 - 3 zinc was at a discount of $36.3 per ton, and Vedanta's fourth - quarter zinc concentrate production increased by 8% year - on - year [41] - Zinc prices are expected to maintain a volatile and slightly bullish pattern in the short term. It is recommended to be cautious when chasing long positions and to take partial profits on previous long positions [43][44] 2.8 Non - Ferrous Metal (Lithium Carbonate) - The first batch of price negotiations for lithium iron phosphate in the new year has landed [45] - The lithium carbonate price is expected to remain strong, but caution is needed when chasing long positions [46][47] 2.9 Non - Ferrous Metal (Copper) - Ukraine will ban the export of metal scrap starting from 2026, and Codelco's 2025 copper production increased slightly [48][49] - Macro factors support copper price increases, but short - term fundamentals are weakening. It is recommended to buy on dips for single - side trading and wait and see for arbitrage [50][51] 2.10 Non - Ferrous Metal (Nickel) - Indonesian mining companies can produce 25% of their 2026 planned output in Q1 [52] - It is recommended to pay attention to buying opportunities on dips for single - side trading and continue to hold previously recommended option strategies [54][55] 2.11 Non - Ferrous Metal (Tin) - On January 5, the LME 0 - 3 tin was at a discount of $30.01 per ton [56] - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and demand is weak. Attention should be paid to supply recovery and demand improvement, and beware of price drops due to the fading of capital enthusiasm [57][58] 2.12 Energy Chemical (Crude Oil) - US API crude oil inventory decreased, but refined product inventories increased significantly [58] - Attention should be paid to geopolitical risk disturbances [60] 2.13 Energy Chemical (Carbon Emissions) - On January 6, the CEA closing price was 74.63 yuan per ton [61] - The CEA price is expected to remain volatile [62]