1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for treasury bonds is "Oscillation" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, there are more negative factors in the market. It is recommended to shift from an oscillatory mindset to a moderately bearish one. The probability of the introduction of growth - stabilizing policies at the end of the year is increasing, and the stock market's performance has suppressed the bond market. The bond market may turn from oscillation to a downward trend, and long - term bonds will be weaker than short - term ones [2] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 One - Week Review and Outlook - **This Week's Trend Review**: From November 17 - 23, treasury bond futures fluctuated within a narrow range. Influenced by factors such as changes in US interest - rate cut expectations, geopolitical risks, stock - market trends, and policy news, the bond market showed different trends on each trading day. As of November 21, the settlement prices of the main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were 102.448, 105.855, 108.440, and 115.590 yuan respectively, with changes of + 0.002, + 0.005, + 0.050, and - 0.480 yuan compared to the previous weekend [11] - **Next Week's Outlook**: Policy expectations are likely to rise. The long - term bonds may change from oscillation to a weaker trend. It is necessary to closely monitor policy - expectation changes. The stock - market decline may not necessarily drive up treasury bonds. Long - term bonds will perform worse than short - term ones, and the 30Y - 10Y spread is expected to widen slightly [12][13][14] 3.2 Weekly Observation of Interest - Rate Bonds - **Primary Market**: This week, 76 interest - rate bonds were issued, with a total issuance of 4865.29 billion yuan and a net financing of 3431.71 billion yuan, down 2403.37 billion yuan and 471.51 billion yuan respectively from last week. The issuance of local - government bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased compared to last week [17] - **Secondary Market**: Treasury - bond yields showed a differentiated trend. As of November 21, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds changed by - 0.17bp, + 0.56bp, + 0.81bp, and + 1.20bp respectively. The 10Y - 1Y, 10Y - 5Y, and 30Y - 10Y spreads all widened [20] 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures - **Prices, Trading Volume, and Open Interest**: Treasury bond futures fluctuated within a narrow range. As of November 21, the trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures increased by 16241, 34025, 46731, and 37790 lots respectively compared to last week, while the open interests of 2 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year decreased, and that of 30 - year increased slightly [31][34] - **Basis and IRR**: The current basis levels of each variety are not high. With the increasing risk of bond - market adjustment, it is recommended to moderately focus on short - hedging strategies, especially using TL for short - hedging [38] - **Inter - delivery and Inter - variety Spreads**: As of November 21, the inter - delivery spreads of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures changed compared to last week. If the bond market weakens next week, the inter - delivery spreads may widen slightly [42][43] 3.4 Weekly Observation of the Funding Situation - The central bank's open - market operations achieved a net injection of 1354 billion yuan this week, and a net injection of 1234 billion yuan including treasury - cash. As of November 21, R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week changed compared to last week. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase decreased compared to last week [48][49][53] 3.5 Weekly Overseas Observation - As of November 21, the US dollar index rose 0.87% to 100.1527, the yield of 10Y US Treasury bonds dropped 8BP to 4.06%, and the 10Y Sino - US Treasury bond yield spread was inverted by 223.9BP [58] 3.6 Weekly Observation of High - Frequency Inflation Data - This week, industrial - product prices and agricultural - product prices both declined. As of November 21, the Nanhua Industrial Index, Metal Index, and Energy - Chemical Index decreased compared to last week, and the prices of pork, 28 key vegetables, and 7 key fruits also decreased [63] 3.7 Investment Suggestions - **Unilateral Strategy**: The bond market may turn from oscillation to a downward trend. It is recommended to focus on short - term short - selling strategies for long - term varieties [18] - **Cash - and - Carry Strategy**: It is recommended to moderately focus on short - hedging strategies, especially for long - term varieties [18] - **Yield - Curve Strategy**: As the market weakens, the yield curve will steepen. It is recommended to moderately focus on strategies such as shorting TL and going long on 3T [18] - **Inter - delivery Strategy**: The current inter - delivery spreads are oscillating and may widen slightly in the next few days [18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Crude oil: Oscillating [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Russia's supply has shown strong resilience, and its crude oil exports have remained stable this year. A short - term decline in domestic refinery processing volume will increase crude oil export demand. The sanctions imposed by the US and Europe on major Russian oil companies since October may lead to a short - term reduction in buyers' purchases of Russian oil. In the long run, if sanctions do not escalate further, trade flows may gradually recover with the establishment of new sales channels. However, if sanctions continue to escalate and some buyers withdraw, the limited potential buyer group will restrict trade flow space, increasing the risk of Russian supply disruptions. Currently, due to high uncertainties in the Russia - Ukraine situation, the market has not priced in the scenario of the US severely restricting Russian oil exports, so the risk premium of oil prices is relatively mild, and it is difficult to drive oil prices to rise continuously [4][58] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Russia's Domestic Energy Facilities Attacked, Crude Oil Export Demand Rises - In the first ten months of this year, Russia's exports of crude oil and petroleum products decreased slightly, mainly due to lower exports in the first half of the year compared to last year. The average seaborne crude oil export volume was about 3.46 million barrels per day, a year - on - year decrease of 50,000 barrels per day. Since July, due to attacks on refineries, the crude oil processing volume has decreased passively, and the crude oil export volume has been significantly higher than the seasonal level. In contrast, the decrease in processing volume has led to a continuous decline in petroleum product exports, reaching the lowest level since 2021, with an average of 2.28 million barrels per day in the first ten months, a year - on - year decrease of 160,000 barrels per day [13] - The seaborne crude oil trade flow is relatively stable, with buyers mainly concentrated in India, China, and Turkey, with seaborne export volumes of 1.76 million barrels per day, 1.18 million barrels per day, and 330,000 barrels per day respectively. Russia's seaborne crude oil exports to the EU and G7 countries have basically stopped since 2024. The trade flow of petroleum products is more dispersed, with Africa, Asia, and Turkey being the main export markets, and a small amount is exported to South America [15] - Since August, the number of drone attacks on Russian energy facilities has increased significantly, including refineries, pumping stations, and ports. The decrease in refinery processing volume has had a negative impact on petroleum product exports. Port safety is also crucial for supply stability, and any threat to port operations will increase the risk of supply disruptions [18][19] 3.2 Outlook for Russia's Crude Oil Supply and Trade Flow under the Escalation of Sanctions by the US and Europe 3.2.1 The US and Europe Expand Sanctions on Russian Oil Companies, and the Impact of Ship Sanctions Is Limited - In October 2025, the UK and the US successively announced sanctions on two major Russian oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, and their major subsidiaries. The EU also passed the 19th round of sanctions against Russia. The potential "secondary sanctions" risk may lead some buyers to reduce their purchases of Russian crude oil to avoid being sanctioned [24][25] - Russia's oil supply is concentrated in four major oil companies, accounting for 77%. Currently, the top four Russian oil companies have all been included in the US sanctions list. After Gazpromneft and Surgutneftegaz were sanctioned in January, their direct crude oil exports decreased significantly. Some new exporters that entered the market in May this year and Rosneft took over the export business, indicating that the market has found ways to adapt to sanctions and maintain trade flows [26] - The US, Europe, and other countries have continuously expanded sanctions on the "shadow fleet" transporting Russian oil, but the actual effect is limited. Although some ships continue to transport Russian oil after being sanctioned, the proportion of Russian crude oil transported by the "shadow fleet" has shown a downward trend [28][29] 3.2.2 New Obstacles for Buyers to Purchase Russian Oil, Focus on the Establishment of New Sales Channels - Indian and Turkish companies are highly sensitive to US sanctions. After the US imposed sanctions on Russian oil companies, Russia's exports to India and Turkey may face short - term volume reduction risks. India may have about 1 million barrels per day of Russian oil supply facing volume reduction or the need to change sellers, and maintaining imports depends on the establishment of new "compliant" sales channels [33][34][35] - Turkey imports about 300,000 barrels per day of Russian crude oil, facing a high risk of volume reduction. The EU has stopped most of its imports of Russian seaborne crude oil and petroleum products, but there are still some pipeline exports to Hungary and Slovakia, which may face increasing interruption risks in the future [41][43] 3.2.3 The Space for Russia to Adjust Its Crude Oil Trade Flow Again May Be Limited - If India or Turkey cannot maintain Russian crude oil imports through new sales channels, Russia may face difficulties in finding new buyers. The relatively high logistics cost of transporting Russian oil to China and the competition from other sensitive oils may limit the trade flow adjustment space. If the potential buyer group is limited, the risk of a decline in Russian supply will further increase [45][48] 3.3 Petroleum Products: The 18th Round of EU Sanctions Awaits Implementation, and the Regional Mismatch of Diesel Supports Crack Spreads - The EU's 18th round of sanctions against Russia will ban the import of petroleum products refined from Russian crude oil starting from January 21, 2026. The EU's new regulations on diesel imports may lead to changes in the diesel trade flow, and the EU may rely more on imports from the Middle East and the US in the future. This may intensify the competition for compliant resources and support crack spreads [54][57]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "oscillating" [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The US September non - farm payrolls far exceeded expectations, and the prospect of a December interest rate cut is unclear. The employment market has not significantly deteriorated, and the urgency for a rate cut is not strong. The December interest rate meeting is more likely to result in no rate cut and a dovish stance on the future rate - cut path [3][4][37] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 US September Non - farm Payrolls and Interest Rate Outlook - **Employment Data**: The US added 119,000 non - farm jobs in September, far exceeding the market expectation of 50,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, higher than expected, and the labor participation rate slightly rebounded to 62.4%. Hourly wage growth was 0.2% month - on - month and 3.8% year - on - year, with the month - on - month rate down from the previous value [3][10] - **Industry Breakdown**: New jobs mainly came from education and healthcare (59,000), leisure and hospitality (47,000), construction (19,000), and retail (14,000). Sectors such as transportation and warehousing, professional and business services, manufacturing, and the federal government continued to lay off workers [3] - **Interest Rate Meeting Outlook**: As the last employment report before the December interest rate meeting, the data's lag reduces its reference value. Market expectations for a rate cut have slightly increased [4][37] 3.2 Investment Recommendations - With a cumulative 50bp rate cut in 2025 and no further acceleration of the economic slowdown, most Fed officials prefer to pause the rate - cut rhythm. Precious metals will continue to consolidate, US Treasury yields will oscillate at recent highs, the US dollar index will oscillate with a slight upward bias, and high - valuation pressure on US stocks will be prominent, with short - term volatility remaining high [5][42]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The US September non - farm payrolls exceeded expectations, leading to significant changes in market risk preferences and various asset price fluctuations. The market is in a high - volatility state, and different industries face different situations and investment opportunities [2][16]. - In the bond market, November is mainly in a volatile state, but the probability of a decline in December is relatively high. In the commodity market, different products have different supply - demand situations and price trends [3][6]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee hinted at not supporting a rate cut in December. Fed Governor Cook warned of private credit risks. The US September non - farm payrolls added 119,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.4%. The short - term market volatility is difficult to reduce, and there may still be a decline [14][15][16]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Fed's Goolsbee is worried about premature and significant rate cuts. The US September non - farm payrolls data made the market's expectation of a December rate cut slightly increase, but it is still less than 50%. Gold prices are expected to continue to fluctuate, and there is a risk of correction [18][19]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Multiple Fed officials maintained a hawkish stance. The US September non - farm payrolls exceeded expectations, with new employment exceeding 100,000, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%. The dollar index is expected to oscillate at a high level [22][23]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Vice - Premier He Lifeng emphasized promoting foreign trade quality improvement. A - shares had a volume - shrinking adjustment. Market rumors of new real - estate stimulus policies may have a positive impact on the economy and prices if implemented. It is recommended not to add long positions in the short term [25][26][28]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The November LPR remained unchanged. The central bank conducted a 3000 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation. The probability of a decline in December is relatively high. It is recommended to short at the upper edge of the oscillation range [30][31][32]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The USDA weekly export sales report met expectations. US bio - fuel policy uncertainty increased, and CBOT soybeans declined. It is expected that soybean meal prices will oscillate, and attention should be paid to China's soybean purchases and South American weather [33][34]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The Trump administration is considering delaying the reduction of import bio - fuel incentives. Malaysian palm oil exports from November 1 - 20 decreased by 20.5% month - on - month. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse spread opportunity [35][36]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Hogs) - Wens Co., Ltd. shut down 7 pig farms for capacity adjustment. In the short - term, it is recommended to short LH2601 and LH2603, and in the long - term, pay attention to the opportunity to lay out LH2607 and far - month contracts at low prices [37][38]. 2.4 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 442,500 tons week - on - week. Although the current destocking is good, the subsequent inventory pressure is still large, and steel prices are expected to continue to oscillate [39]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The starch production rate slightly decreased, and inventory decreased. The rice - flour price difference is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to conduct band trading [41][42][43]. 2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The inventory of northern ports increased, and the inventory of southern ports decreased. Corn prices are expected to remain high and oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [45]. 2.7 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The power plant's winter storage is coming to an end. Coal prices are expected to stabilize in the short term, and attention should be paid to actual temperature and daily consumption in December [46]. 2.8 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - US Steel announced a $3 billion expansion project. Iron ore prices are expected to maintain a weak oscillation, and attention should be paid to policy changes [47]. 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The "Chengdu Declaration" was released. Polysilicon prices are expected to return to an oscillation state, and attention should be paid to interval trading opportunities [48][49][51]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The "anti - involution" of silicone drove up the industrial silicon futures price, but it is actually a negative factor. It is recommended to stop profiting from short positions in a timely manner [52][53][54]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The social inventory of lead ingots first increased and then decreased. It is recommended to short at high prices in the short term and wait and see for arbitrage and internal - external trading [55][56]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The domestic social inventory of zinc decreased. LME zinc oscillated upward. It is recommended to manage positions well in the short term and pay attention to buying opportunities on dips in the medium term [57][59][60]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - China's refined nickel imports decreased significantly in October. Nickel prices are expected to remain weak in the short term, and attention should be paid to Indonesia's supply adjustment [61][62][63]. 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Liontown's lithium concentrate auction price was higher than the spot price. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted the trading fees and limits of lithium carbonate futures. It is recommended to short at high prices in the short term [64][65][66]. 2.15 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA price increased by 1.51% on November 20. The CEA price has a strong upward driving force [67][68]. 2.16 Energy Chemicals (Natural Gas) - US natural gas inventory decreased by 14 Bcf week - on - week. Nymex natural gas faces a downward risk [69][70]. 2.17 Energy Chemicals (PX) - PX prices were relatively strong. It is recommended to adjust in the short term and try to go long at low prices in the long term [71][72]. 2.18 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The terminal operating rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang remained stable. PTA is expected to accumulate a small amount of inventory at the end of the year. It is recommended not to chase the rise unilaterally and to lay out long positions in far - month contracts and 5 - 9 positive spreads at low prices [73][75][76]. 2.19 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp in the spot market was weakly adjusted. It is expected that the subsequent market will oscillate [77]. 2.20 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - CMA CGM and AD Ports will expand the Khalifa Port terminal. The container freight rate market is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to pay attention to low - buying opportunities for the 02 contract at the lower edge of the oscillation range [78][79][80].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed's latest interest rate meeting minutes show that most officials tend not to cut rates, meaning a December rate cut is highly unlikely, and the market risk appetite remains volatile while the US dollar rebounds [1][12][19]. - Against the backdrop of the Ministry of Finance's early allocation of part of the 2026 budget for urban affordable housing projects, the Shanghai Composite Index closed slightly higher with reduced trading volume, but the market style is chaotic and risk - averse trading persists. It is recommended to reduce long positions [2][22]. - The bond market failed to break through the upper limit of the trading range and had adjustment pressure. With the stock market strengthening slightly, Treasury bond futures declined. It is advisable to view the market from a volatile perspective [3][25]. - The EPA's re - emphasis on increasing RVO has boosted the rebound of edible oils, but the short - term supply pressure remains unrelieved. For industrial silicon, it is advisable to take profit on previous long positions and look for short - selling opportunities on price rallies [4]. - EIA commercial crude oil inventories decreased, and oil prices declined with a reduction in risk premium [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - NVIDIA's Q3 revenue accelerated by 62% year - on - year, and its Q4 revenue guidance also exceeded expectations. However, the Fed's internal officials have significant differences on a December rate cut, and the market's rate - cut expectation remains low. It is recommended to wait for the release of non - farm payroll data to see the market's new direction [11][12][13]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The Fed's meeting minutes show serious internal differences. Gold prices fluctuated and closed higher, but in the short term, there is a lack of direct positive factors for a new wave of upward movement. It is expected that gold prices will fluctuate widely around $4000, with increased long - short competition [14][15]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The Trump administration is trying to promote a cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine. The Fed's meeting minutes show that most officials tend not to cut rates, so a December rate cut is unlikely. The US dollar index is expected to rebound [16][17][19]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The Ministry of Finance has advanced the allocation of part of the 2026 budget for urban affordable housing projects. The Shanghai Composite Index closed slightly higher with reduced trading volume, and technology stocks underperformed. It is recommended to reduce long positions instead of chasing the market [21][22][23]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 310.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. The bond market failed to break through the upper limit of the trading range and had adjustment pressure. With the stock market strengthening slightly, Treasury bond futures declined. It is recommended to view the market from a volatile perspective [24][25][26]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - USDA reported that private exporters sold 330,000 tons of soybeans to China, and a 30,000 - ton shipment of Argentine soybean meal cleared customs in China. It is expected that futures prices will likely remain range - bound, and attention should be paid to China's soybean purchases from the US and weather conditions in South American production areas [27][28][29]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The import cost of 24 - degree palm oil in South China has risen significantly. The EPA's re - emphasis on RVO has boosted the rebound of edible oils, but the short - term supply pressure remains. It is recommended to pay attention to the resistance level of 9000 yuan/ton [30][31]. 3.2.3 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The workload of construction machinery increased in October, and the retail and wholesale of passenger cars from November 1 - 16 showed different trends. Steel prices are in a volatile pattern, and it is recommended to view them from a volatile perspective [32][33][34]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Jujubes) - The price of jujubes in Xinjiang has slightly declined. The futures market is volatile. It is recommended to operate with caution and pay attention to upstream procurement [35][36]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The operating rate of corn starch has slightly decreased, and inventory has been reduced. It is expected that the price difference between 01 futures and rice flour will fluctuate, and it is advisable to conduct band trading [37][38]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The spot corn market shows a pattern of strength in the south and weakness in the north. In the short term, the near - month contracts may not experience a significant decline. It is recommended to wait and see, and look for short - selling opportunities on rallies for 03 and 05 contracts when the situation becomes clear [39][40][41]. 3.2.7 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The 2026 medium - and long - term coal contracts have been signed, with the supply guarantee ratio and long - term contract price basically the same as in 2025. It is expected that coal prices will continue to fluctuate around 800 yuan [42]. 3.2.8 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The production and sales of air conditioners in December are expected to decline. The fundamentals of iron ore remain stable with a volatile trend. Although the supply pressure is high and port inventories are increasing, the risk of a sharp decline is reduced [43]. 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Hogs) - Tangrenshen terminated a fixed - increase project. In the short term, it is advisable to short - sell LH2601 and LH2603 on price rallies, and in the long term, pay attention to the opportunity to build long positions for LH2607 and distant - month contracts at low prices [44][45]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - From January to October 2025, solar power generation increased. The polysilicon spot price depends on the game between policy and fundamentals. It is expected to return to a volatile market, and attention should be paid to range - trading opportunities [46][48]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - Organic silicon manufacturers plan to jointly reduce production and adjust prices. Although the price of industrial silicon has risen, the reduction in organic silicon production is negative for industrial silicon. It is recommended to take profit on previous long positions and look for short - selling opportunities on price rallies [49][52][53]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead market shows a downward trend, and the trading volume of domestic lead contracts has decreased. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on price rallies and remain on the sidelines for arbitrage and cross - border trading [54]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc market is volatile, and domestic social inventories have decreased. It is recommended to manage positions well for long positions, continue to hold positive - spread arbitrage positions, and manage positions for cross - border arbitrage [55][56]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - A nickel - related transaction has occurred. The nickel market is fundamentally weak and technically bearish. In the short term, the price may continue to decline or rebound depending on production cuts. In the medium term, attention should be paid to Indonesia's supply - contraction actions [57][58][59]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Sigma has adjusted its lithium mine production. The lithium carbonate market has strong short - term support, but the demand is expected to weaken from the end of the year to Q1 2026. It is not recommended to chase long positions, and short - selling opportunities on price rallies can be considered [61][62][63]. 3.2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - EIA commercial crude oil inventories decreased, and oil prices declined. It is expected to maintain a short - term volatile trend [64][65]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Asphalt) - The capacity utilization rate of domestic heavy - traffic asphalt has decreased, and the supply has tightened. The market is in a situation of both supply and demand decline, and the price is expected to be volatile in the short term [66][67]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Methanol) - China's methanol port and production enterprise inventories have decreased, but the port inventory decline is due to low arrivals. It is recommended to hold short positions and add short positions on price rebounds, with a profit - taking target around 2000 yuan/ton [68][69]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - South Korea's pure benzene exports from November 1 - 10 showed certain trends. The styrene market is affected by external factors, and it is recommended to view it from a volatile perspective in the short term [70][71]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong has been slightly adjusted. The supply is high, and the demand is weak. The short - term market is expected to remain weak, and attention should be paid to whether supply reduction will occur due to profit compression [72][73][74]. 3.2.21 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - Germany will impose a 23% tax on Chinese cross - border small packages. The container freight market is currently weak, but with the approaching long - term contract season, the price may be supported. It is recommended to view the market from a volatile range perspective and look for short - long opportunities for the 02 contract on price dips [75][76].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The market volatility remains high, and it is recommended to wait and see for the market to choose a direction. Gold is in a volatile trend, and there is a risk of decline in the short - term. The US dollar index is expected to weaken. The bond market will continue to fluctuate. For various commodities, they are mostly in a state of shock, and investment decisions should be made according to specific market conditions [14][17][25][42] - Large technology companies are expanding their AI infrastructure through complex financing structures, but the market is cautious. The market is concerned about the information of the next Fed Chairman. If the candidate is dovish, it may boost the market's expectation of interest - rate cuts and improve risk appetite [13] Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Trump has selected a candidate for the next Fed Chairman, and Besent plans to submit a recommendation to Trump after Thanksgiving. Microsoft, NVIDIA, and Anthropic have established a strategic partnership. Anthropic will buy $30 billion worth of Azure computing power, Microsoft will invest $5 billion, and NVIDIA will invest $10 billion. The market is cautious about large technology companies' expansion of AI infrastructure, and it is recommended to wait and see [12][13][14] 1.2 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US 11 - month NAHB housing market index is 38. Fed's Barkin agrees with Powell that a December interest - rate cut is not a foregone conclusion. Gold prices first declined and then rebounded, breaking through the $4000 mark. The Fed's cautious attitude towards monetary policy suppresses market sentiment. There is still room for long - short game on whether to cut interest rates in December. Gold is in a short - term volatile and weak trend, and there is a risk of decline [15][16][17] 1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The unemployment rate of 16 - 24 - year - old labor force (excluding students) in October is 17.3%. Beijing supports the issuance of eligible consumer infrastructure REITs. Affected by Sino - Japanese relations and the weakening of US AI guidance, the domestic market is sold off. It is recommended to reduce long positions [18][19][20] 1.4 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump threatens to revoke ABC's TV license and says he is interviewing candidates for the next Fed Chairman. The latest ADP employment data shows that the US labor market is weakening, the market risk appetite is decreasing, and the US dollar is weakening. It is expected that the most tightening stage of liquidity may have passed [21][22][23] 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducts a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 407.5 billion yuan, with a net investment of 370 million yuan. The bond market continues to fluctuate narrowly. The power to break the deadlock in the bond market is insufficient, and it will continue to fluctuate. It is appropriate to short - sell at high positions. The inter - period spread may widen slightly [25][26][27] 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - As of November 15, 2025/26, 325 sugar mills in India have started crushing, with an increase of 181 year - on - year. The ISO predicts a global sugar supply surplus of 1.63 million tons in the 2025/26 season. China's sugar imports in October are 750,000 tons, exceeding market expectations. It is expected that the import volume will decrease in November - December. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [28][29][31] 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Palm oil industry experts are optimistic about the plantation industry. China's palm oil imports in October are 220,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.7%. The market is bullish on palm oil prices due to supply shortages and biodiesel demand. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing long positions and pay attention to the 9000 pressure level [32][33] 2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Last week, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills decreased slightly. Brazil's soybean sowing is 69% complete. NOPA members' soybean crushing volume in October reached a record high. The cost of domestic imported soybeans has increased, but the increase in China's procurement of US soybeans reduces the possibility of domestic soybean shortages. The soybean meal futures price is weaker than the external market. It is recommended to pay attention to China's actual procurement of US soybeans and South American production expectations [34][36][37] 2.4 Agricultural Products (Jujube) - The price of jujubes in Xinjiang has been adjusted downwards. The futures price of jujubes has risen for two consecutive days. The acquisition of jujubes in Xinjiang is coming to an end. It is recommended to operate cautiously and pay attention to the upstream acquisition situation [38][39] 2.5 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - In October, the production of China's four major household appliances decreased year - on - year, and the export of steel plates decreased year - on - year. The price of steel has rebounded in shock. The contradiction in the fundamentals of finished steel has not been fundamentally alleviated. The upward space of steel prices is limited. It is recommended to treat steel prices with a shock mentality [40][42][43] 2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The price difference between corn starch and cassava starch makes the substitution advantage of corn starch slightly appear. The profit of deep - processing enterprises has declined slightly, but the downstream acceptance of price increases has increased. The 01 futures price difference has been repaired. It is recommended to conduct band operations [44][46] 2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The domestic corn price is consolidating at a high level. The price in the Northeast is stable, the price in North China is stable, and the price in the sales area has increased slightly. The spot price is firm, and the futures price has fallen after rising. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and pay attention to the grain sales progress in North China and the wheat auction situation [46][47] 2.8 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The price of coking coal in the East China market is stable and strong. The supply is in a tight - balance state, and the downstream coking profit is deteriorating. The spot sentiment has回调, and the coal price increase has narrowed. The supply recovery is slow. The coking coal market is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [48][49] 2.9 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The inventory of steam coal in Beigang has increased slightly. The increase in coal prices may end, and it may fluctuate at a high level after the inventory turns around. The actual thermal power consumption in November is average. It is necessary to pay attention to the actual winter consumption in December to determine whether coal prices will rise again [49][50] 2.10 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Genmin has obtained approximately A$25.7 million in financing for the African Baniaka iron ore project. Iron ore prices are in a shock market. The supply is high, and the downstream steel production is declining moderately. It is expected that the molten iron will decline at a rate of about 10,000 tons per week from mid - November to mid - December. It is expected to continue the shock market [51] 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - On November 17, the LME 0 - 3 lead showed a discount of $16.88/ton. The LME inventory decreased, and the cash spread increased. The Shanghai lead continued to decline in shock. It is recommended to short at high positions in the short - term and wait and see for arbitrage and internal - external trading [52][53] 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - On November 17, the LME 0 - 3 zinc showed a premium of $104.97/ton. The LME inventory increased, and the cash spread decreased. The Shanghai zinc may enter a high - level shock adjustment stage. It is recommended to hold short positions in the short - term, pay attention to medium - term positive arbitrage opportunities, and short - term internal - external reverse arbitrage opportunities [54] 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Rainbow Mining is considering a joint - venture copper mine with Newmont in Papua New Guinea. Freeport plans to resume large - scale production of its Indonesian copper mine in the second quarter of next year. The short - term macro factors are negative for copper prices, but the fundamentals provide support. It is recommended to lay out long positions at low positions in the medium - term and wait and see for arbitrage [55][57][58] 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Hunan Yueneng starts the construction of a 20,000 - ton battery recycling and 30,000 - ton lithium carbonate project. The lithium carbonate market has strong short - term support, but the power demand is expected to weaken from the end of this year to the first quarter of next year. It is not recommended to chase long positions. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high positions after the demand weakens and project resumption is clear [59][60][61] 2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Ramu's Q3 production report shows an increase in nickel and cobalt production and sales. The nickel market is technically weak, and the high - level inventory of pure nickel continues to accumulate. The price of nickel may continue to be weak in the short - term or repair the valuation according to the reduction of smelting production. It is necessary to pay attention to Indonesia's supply - contraction measures in the medium - term [62][63][64] 2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The API US crude oil inventory has increased. Oil prices have rebounded, possibly affected by the expected short - term sanctions on Russian supply. The US inventory level is still relatively low. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [65][66][67] 2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - On November 18, the CEA closing price was 61.76 yuan/ton, up 1.53%. The new quota allocation plan may reverse the carbon market supply - demand structure, and the CEA price has strong upward momentum. Pay attention to the release of demand [67][68] 2.18 Energy and Chemicals (LLDPE) - The polyethylene social sample inventory has decreased slightly. The PE fundamentals are lackluster. If there is a rebound, it is recommended to short. If there is no further negative news, the price will fluctuate in the future. It is recommended to wait and see [69] 2.19 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The price of PVC powder in the domestic market is weakly sorted. The PVC futures price is down, and the inventory is high. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is suppressed. It is recommended to short on rebounds for near - month contracts and pay attention to long - term layout opportunities for far - month contracts after the price drops excessively [70][72] 2.20 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - Shipping companies have jointly opened a new route from the Far East to the Red Sea. The spot market is weak, and the supply pressure in December is high. The 02 contract lacks the power to rise sharply, but with the approaching of the long - term contract season, the shipping companies' price - holding agreement may strengthen. It is recommended to treat the current market with a shock - range mentality [73][74]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's port congestion situation continues to improve, with port turnover times at historical low levels. Southeast Asian ports have also seen a significant improvement in congestion, and the operational fluctuations have converged [2]. - The negative impact of previous strikes on European ports has basically been cleared, but there are still concerns. There is a risk of strikes in Belgium in late November, and the railway at Hamburg Port remains closed, posing a risk of increased congestion [2]. - North American ports are operating well [2]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Data Review - **Asian Ports**: - In Yangshan Port, the weekly average waiting time/berthing time for ocean - going container ships is 0 hours/23.9 hours, with 2 ships at anchor/8 ships berthed. In Waigaoqiao, it's 0 hours/20.7 hours, with 12 ships at anchor/24 ships berthed. In Ningbo Port, it's 0 hours/23.1 hours, with 7 ships at anchor/21 ships berthed. In Qingdao, it's 0 hours/66.1 hours. In Singapore Port, it's 0 hours/29.5 hours, with 6 ships at anchor/48 ships berthed. In Port Klang, it's 0 hours/26.7 hours, with 7 ships at anchor/27 ships berthed [2]. - The average turnover times are about 1.0 days in Yangshan, Ningbo, and Yantian Ports. The average time in port is 1.2 days in Singapore Port and 1.1 days in Port Klang [2]. - **European Ports**: - In Rotterdam, Antwerp, Hamburg, and Bremen, the weekly average waiting time/berthing time for ocean - going container ships are 0 hours/43.4 hours, 0 hours/40.3 hours, 1.1 hours/44.0 hours, 0 hours/39.0 hours respectively. The numbers of ships at anchor/berthed are 6 ships/29 ships, 10 ships/15 ships, 0 ships/13 ships respectively. In Valencia, it's 0 hours/33.4 hours, with 7 ships at anchor/10 ships berthed [2]. - The average time in port is about 1.7 days in Antwerp, 1.8 days in Rotterdam, 1.8 days in Hamburg, and 1.6 days in Bremen [2]. - **North American Ports**: - In Long Beach, Los Angeles, and Tacoma, the weekly average waiting time/berthing time for ocean - going container ships are 0 hours/94.7 hours, 0 hours/97.1 hours, 0 hours/94.0 hours respectively. In Long Beach and Los Angeles, there are 0 ships at anchor and 19 ships berthed. In New York, Savannah, and Norfolk, it's 0 hours/36.6 hours, 0 hours/34.0 hours, 0 hours/22.7 hours respectively. In New York, there are 0 ships at anchor/8 ships berthed. In Houston Port, it's 0 hours/62.0 hours [2]. Asian Port Dynamic Tracking - The data shows the scale of container ships in port in China and Southeast Asia, including the number of ships at anchor and berthed in different ports over time. It also presents the average waiting time, berthing time, and total time in port for ocean - going container ships in Southeast Asian and Chinese container ports [9][10][17]. European Port Dynamic Tracking - The report shows the scale of container ships in port in Europe, including the number of ships at anchor and berthed in different ports in Northwest Europe and the Mediterranean/Black Sea regions over time. It also presents the average waiting time, berthing time, and total time in port for ocean - going container ships in Northwest European and Mediterranean container ports [20][21][28]. North American Port Dynamic Tracking - The data shows the scale of container ships in port in North America, including the number of ships at anchor and berthed in different ports in North America over time. It also presents the average waiting time, berthing time, and total time in port for ocean - going container ships in American container ports [38][39][40]. Large - Ship Arrival and Key Hub Monitoring - It monitors the arrival of large - scale container ships in Yangshan Port, Ningbo Port, and Singapore Port, divided by different ship sizes. It also tracks the arrival of 1.2w + container ships of different alliances in Asia, Northwest Europe, and the Mediterranean regions. Additionally, it monitors the passage of container ships through the Cape of Good Hope, Suez Canal, and Panama Canal [47][50][52].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed is divided on future interest rate cuts, with market risk appetite difficult to repair, and the market is waiting for non - farm payroll data and NVIDIA's earnings report. [13] - Gold prices are in a downward trend, and the market's expectation of a December rate cut by the Fed is decreasing. [16] - The US dollar shows a short - term volatile trend as the market focuses more on hawkish statements. [21] - The domestic stock market is in a volatile adjustment, and the market's risk - aversion sentiment has increased. [24] - The bond market is slightly stronger but is likely to remain in a volatile pattern in the short term. [27] - Most commodity markets show volatile trends, with different supply - demand situations and price trends in various sectors. [28][32][34] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Fed officials are divided on future interest rate cuts. Market risk appetite is difficult to repair, and it is recommended to wait and see. [13][14] 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US November New York Fed Manufacturing Index is higher than expected. Gold prices continue to fall, and it is recommended to observe whether the $4000 mark can be held. [15][16][17] 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump's statement on Venezuela and Waller's support for a rate cut. The Fed is divided, and the US dollar shows a short - term volatile trend. [18][20][21] 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The domestic stock market is in a volatile adjustment, with a slight reduction in trading volume. It is recommended to stop buying long positions and consider reducing exposure if the market continues to correct. [23][24][25] 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducts a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation. The bond market is slightly stronger but is likely to remain in a volatile pattern. It is recommended to adopt a volatile mindset. [27][28] 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Palm oil inventory increases, and exports decline. It is recommended to wait and see and be cautious about bottom - fishing. [28][29][30] 3.2.2 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Steel prices rebound, but the fundamental contradiction is not fundamentally alleviated. It is recommended to adopt a volatile mindset. [32][33] 3.2.3 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - International steam coal prices are strong. Coal prices are supported but difficult to break through the 900 - yuan mark. [34] 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - Deep - processing enterprise profits decline slightly. It is recommended to conduct band operations. [36] 3.2.5 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - A Canadian mining company acquires an iron ore project. Iron ore prices are in a volatile pattern with support from downstream valuation and pressure from fundamentals. [37][38] 3.2.6 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal market in East China is strong. Short - term fundamentals change little, and prices are in a volatile pattern. [39][40] 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - Xinjiang red dates are almost off the tree. The futures price is slightly up, and it is recommended to focus on price competition and acquisition progress in the production area. [40][41] 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Corn prices rise. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines and pay attention to the grain - selling progress in North China and wheat auctions. [42][43] 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - A company's US battery factory plans to start production. Polysilicon prices are expected to remain stable in November, and it is recommended to focus on range - trading opportunities. [44][45][46] 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - An organic silicon industry meeting may determine production - cut targets. It is recommended to go long on industrial silicon at low prices. [47][48] 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - Lead inventory increases before delivery. It is recommended to short at high prices and wait and see for arbitrage and cross - border trading. [49][50] 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - A company's zinc concentrate production increases. Zinc prices may enter a high - level volatile adjustment stage. It is recommended to hold short positions, focus on medium - term positive arbitrage, and short - term cross - border arbitrage. [52][53][54] 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - A gold company plans to split, and a copper mine in Congo has an accident. Copper prices are expected to be in a wide - range volatile pattern, and it is recommended to go long at low prices and wait and see for arbitrage. [55][56][57] 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - LME nickel inventory increases. Nickel prices are under pressure in the short term, and it is necessary to focus on Indonesia's supply - contraction measures. [58][59][60] 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - A company submits a lithium project feasibility study report. Lithium carbonate prices are expected to be strong in the short term, but it is not recommended to chase the rise. [61][62] 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Sanctions on Russian oil companies may have a long - term negative impact. Oil prices are in a short - term volatile pattern. [63][64] 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - Asphalt inventory decreases. Prices are expected to be stable and weak in the short term. [64][65] 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The caustic soda market in Shandong has a downward - moving trading center. The market is expected to be in a weak volatile pattern. [66][67] 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - A pesticide standardization committee is established. Urea prices are in a volatile pattern, and the 01 contract is expected to operate in the range of 1560 - 1760 yuan/ton. [68][69][70] 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - Pure benzene inventory in East China ports increases. It is recommended to wait and see for pure benzene and styrene. [71][72][74] 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash market in Shahe has a general trend. The short - term market is expected to be volatile, and a bearish view is taken in the medium term. [75] 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - Float glass prices in the Shahe market fall. The market is in a multi - empty game, and it is recommended to wait and see. [76] 3.2.23 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - CMA CGM releases its Q3 results. The 12 - 02 spread has converged, and the market is expected to return to fundamental logic. [77][78][79]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The shipping industry for the European route is rated as "bearish" in 2025 [6] Core Viewpoints - The continuous development of the China-Europe Railway Express is changing the traditional China-Europe logistics pattern, evolving from a supplementary role to a competitive force against the shipping system, especially on European routes [10] - The substitution effect of the China-Europe Railway Express on European route shipping will deepen, and the "asymmetric substitution" relationship between the two needs close attention, which may significantly impact European route cargo volume [5][48][49] Summary by Directory 1. Network Development Promotes Comprehensive Competitiveness Improvement - In 2024, the westbound channel's annual departures exceeded 11,000 trains, with container transport volume reaching 1.14 million TEUs, up 12.9% and 12.5% year-on-year respectively, higher than the global shipping trade's 2.3% annual growth rate. As of 2024, the freight volume of the China-Europe Railway Express accounted for 6.3% of the total Asia-Europe shipping trade volume [11] - The "Three Channels and Five Ports" network layout provides systematic advantages. The westbound channel undertakes over 70% of the transport tasks, the middle channel plays a diversion role in winter, and the eastbound channel connects Northeast China with European Russia and Nordic countries. The newly opened west 2 channel saw explosive growth in 2024 [15] - The five ports have evolved into comprehensive hubs, and the "one-time inspection, full-line clearance" mode improves cross-border transport efficiency. The domestic and overseas networks cover many cities, shortening the delivery time to European inland areas by 7 - 10 days compared to shipping [18][23] 2. Differentiated Substitution Effect Driven by Price Factors - There is an asymmetric substitution relationship between the China-Europe Railway Express and shipping. When shipping prices rise sharply, high-value goods requiring high transport timeliness and supply chain stability will shift to the railway, as seen during the 2020 - 2021 pandemic and the 2024 Red Sea crisis [24] - The asymmetric nature lies in that the impact of rising shipping prices on the demand for the railway express is much greater than the impact of railway price adjustments on the return of shipping demand. This is due to the different core demands and cost - accounting logics of the two customer groups [29][31] 3. Multi - Dimensional Market Penetration and Structural Characteristics - In terms of cargo value, high - value products prefer the China-Europe Railway Express due to their high requirements for transport timeliness and reliability, while low - value commodities mainly use shipping. The proportion of high - value goods transported by railway in EU imports from China is about 5%, compared to 3% for low - value goods [32] - Geographically, the time - saving advantage of the railway express is more prominent for inland countries in Central and Eastern Europe. The difference in implicit costs between regions further strengthens the sensitivity of high - value goods to shipping price fluctuations [33][39] 4. Continuous Evolution of Structural Adjustment and Development Trends - The proportion of low - value goods in the China-Europe Railway Express's cargo structure is rising, while that of high - value goods is slightly falling, and the gap between them is narrowing. Geopolitical risks and falling shipping prices have slowed the shift of high - value goods to the railway [42] - The growth of low - value goods' railway transport demand is driven by policy subsidies, the "rail - sea - rail" multimodal transport mode of the west 2 channel, and the optimization of the railway express's operation mode [44] 5. Summary and Outlook - In 2024, the China-Europe Railway Express's cargo volume accounted for 6.3% of the total Asia - Europe trade volume, indicating it has become an important force affecting the China - Europe logistics pattern. Its relationship with shipping is shifting from simple complementarity to a "complementary - competitive" dynamic balance [48] - The substitution effect of the China - Europe Railway Express on European route shipping will deepen. The railway express's internal structural adjustment will continue, and the market shares of high - and low - value goods will become more balanced [48] - When European route shipping prices rise by over 50%, 3 - 5% of the cargo is expected to shift to the railway, with high - value goods' transfer ratio possibly reaching 8 - 10%. The China - Europe Railway Express's penetration in the Mediterranean coastal European inland areas will increase, and its unit transport cost is expected to decrease by 10 - 15% in the next three years [49]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamental performance of the photovoltaic glass industry remains weak. Although the market price is temporarily stable, there may be further adjustments in the future. The industry's gross profit margin has turned negative, and the supply - demand gap is expected to widen [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Photovoltaic Glass Weekly Outlook - Supply: Last week, one production line started feeding materials and one was ignited, increasing the overall supply. The current in - production capacity is 89,380 tons per day with a capacity utilization rate of 68.35%. One production line is expected to undergo cold repair this week, reducing capacity by 1,200 tons per day [1][7]. - Demand: Last week, the industry demand was weak, and many photovoltaic glass enterprises couldn't achieve production - sales balance. Component manufacturers are using previously stocked glass, and November and December are seasonal off - peak demand months, so short - term demand will continue to decline [1][7]. - Inventory: Last week, the inventory of photovoltaic glass manufacturers continued to increase. With supply rising and demand expected to fall, the industry's supply - demand gap is expected to widen [1][7]. - Gross Profit Margin: Last week, the gross profit margin of the photovoltaic glass industry turned negative, currently about - 0.96% [2][7]. 3.2 Domestic Photovoltaic Glass Industry Chain Data 3.2.1 Photovoltaic Glass Spot Price - As of November 14, the mainstream price of domestic 2.0mm coated (panel) photovoltaic glass was 13 yuan per square meter, unchanged from last week; the mainstream price of 3.2mm coated glass was 19.5 yuan per square meter, also unchanged from last week [1][8]. 3.2.2 Supply - side - Last week, one production line started feeding materials and one was ignited, increasing the overall supply. The current in - production capacity is 89,380 tons per day with a capacity utilization rate of 68.35%. One production line is expected to undergo cold repair this week, reducing capacity by 1,200 tons per day [1][7][11]. 3.2.3 Demand - side - Last week, the industry demand was weak, and many photovoltaic glass enterprises couldn't achieve production - sales balance. Component manufacturers are using previously stocked glass, and November and December are seasonal off - peak demand months, so short - term demand will continue to decline [1][7][20]. 3.2.4 Inventory - side - Last week, the inventory of photovoltaic glass manufacturers continued to increase. With supply rising and demand expected to fall, the industry's supply - demand gap is expected to widen [1][7][23]. 3.2.5 Cost - profit side - Last week, the gross profit margin of the photovoltaic glass industry turned negative, currently about - 0.96% [2][7][26]. 3.2.6 Trade - side - From January to September 2025, China's photovoltaic glass exports increased by 19.7% compared with the same period in 2024. The export of photovoltaic glass remains prosperous, and overseas installation demand is strong [34].