1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for Treasury bonds is "Oscillation" [5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the first half of the year, the economy exceeded market expectations, but the effectiveness of domestic policies is weakening, and the full - year economic growth rate is expected to be high in the front and low in the back. The bond market adjustment pressure is controllable, and there is a long - term bullish view on the bond market [1][2][3] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data Performance Differentiation - **Economic Data Overview**: In June, the industrial added - value increased by 6.8% year - on - year, exceeding expectations. The total retail sales of consumer goods (TRSCG) growth rate dropped to 4.8%. From January to June, the real estate development investment growth rate decreased to - 11.2%, and the infrastructure cumulative growth rate dropped to 8.9%. The GDP growth rate in the first half of the year was 5.3% [9][10] - **Production End**: In June, the industrial production was strong. The growth rate of the added - value of mining, manufacturing, and the production and supply of electricity, gas, and water was 6.1%, 7.4%, and 1.8% respectively. The service industry production growth rate was 6.0%, slightly down from the previous value. In the future, the high - speed growth of industrial production may not be sustainable, while the service industry production growth rate will remain at a high level [12][13][14] - **Demand End - Investment**: From January to June, the cumulative investment growth rate of the manufacturing industry was 7.5%, and the investment growth rate of infrastructure continued to decline. The real estate development investment growth rate was - 11.2%, showing an accelerated decline. In the future, the decline direction of manufacturing investment is certain, the infrastructure growth rate has a decline pressure, and the real estate industry depends on policies to stop the decline [20][25][27] - **Demand End - Consumption**: In June, the TRSCG increased by 4.8% year - on - year, and the growth rate declined again. It is expected that the TRSCG growth rate will decline slightly in the second half of the year [32][33] 3.2 Bond Market Outlook - In July, the bond market should be mainly oscillating. In the short - term, there may be some upward momentum, but it is difficult to break through the mid - June high. In the long - term, the bond market is still bullish. The strategy is to lay out long - term long positions on dips [3][36] - **Strategies**: Short - term oscillation, long - term bullish, focus on the strategy of laying out long - term long positions on dips; the opportunity for futures positive arbitrage has significantly decreased; the curve strategy should be on the sidelines for the time being [38][39]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View The report comprehensively analyzes various sectors including finance and commodities. In the financial sector, factors such as inflation data, trade agreements, and central bank policies influence the performance of assets like gold, the US dollar, and stocks. In the commodity sector, supply - demand dynamics, production data, and policy changes impact prices of metals, energy, and agricultural products. Overall, different assets are expected to have diverse trends such as some being in a short - term upward movement, some in a downward trend, and others in a state of oscillation [1][2][3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Nvidia is applying to resell H20 GPUs, and the US government assures to grant the license. US CPI rebounded in June, with inflation data influencing gold prices. Gold is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [13][14]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump reached a trade deal with Indonesia, lowering the tariff rate to 19%. US CPI data in June was in line with expectations, with inflation rising and the US dollar index expected to continue rising in the short term [15][16]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The Central Urban Work Conference was held, emphasizing the transformation of urban development. China's Q2 GDP growth was 5.2%. It is recommended to allocate various stock indices evenly [18][19]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Trump announced a trade deal with Indonesia, and US core CPI in June rose 2.9% year - on - year. The impact of tariffs is emerging, and the stock index is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to control positions carefully [21][23]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 3425 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. China's Q2 GDP growth was 5.2%, higher than expected. The bond market is expected to turn stronger gradually in the coming months [25][27]. 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - On July 15, the price difference between imported and domestic steam coal was presented. Due to high - temperature weather, coal prices are expected to remain strong in the short term [30]. 2.2 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Rio Tinto's Q2 iron ore production and shipment data were released. The iron ore price is expected to oscillate as the market sentiment eases [31]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - NOPA's June soybean crushing was higher than expected. The price of soybean meal is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to US soybean产区 weather and Sino - US relations [33][34]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Brazil's sugar export in the first two weeks of July decreased. Pakistan canceled a large - scale sugar import tender. The sugar price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the processing sugar quotation [35][38]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 15 decreased by 6.16% month - on - month. The oil market is expected to decline slightly, and a YP spread widening strategy can be considered [41]. 2.6 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - China's infrastructure investment in H1 increased by 4.6%. Steel prices are expected to have limited upward space, and a rebound hedging strategy is recommended for the spot market [42][44]. 2.7 Agricultural Products (Hogs) - New Hope's expected H1 2025 net profit increased. The hog price is expected to oscillate with an upward bias, and a strategy of buying on dips is recommended for the 09 contract [46][47]. 2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - Corn starch enterprises in different regions had different profit situations. The starch price is expected to be stable, and the CS - C spread has high uncertainty [48]. 2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The成交 rate of the corn auction on July 15 decreased. Corn prices are expected to oscillate, and short positions on new - crop corn can be considered [49][51]. 2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead spread was presented. The lead price is expected to have support at the moving average, and long positions can be considered on dips [52]. 2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - A zinc smelter in central China plans to conduct maintenance in August. The zinc price is expected to be under pressure, and short - selling opportunities can be considered [54][55]. 2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Lockheed Martin plans to restart seabed mining. China's copper production increased. The copper price is expected to be under pressure in the short term [57][59]. 2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Indonesia and the EU have no disputes over nickel mining policies. The nickel price is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term, and short - selling opportunities can be considered [61][63]. 2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Sayona's lithium project drilling results were positive. Lithium carbonate is expected to be strong in the short term, and long positions on dips can be considered [64]. 2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The EU plans to expand the CBAM scope. The CEA price is expected to oscillate in the short term [66]. 2.16 Energy and Chemicals (PX) - On July 15, the PX price declined. The PX price is expected to oscillate slightly stronger in the short term [68]. 2.17 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - The PTA spot price declined, and the basis was stable. The PTA price is expected to oscillate slightly stronger in the short term [70][72]. 2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - A styrene plant in Shandong resumed production. The styrene price is expected to oscillate downward, and potential layout opportunities should be observed [73]. 2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - Bottle chip factories are implementing production cuts. The bottle chip price is expected to have a short - term relief in supply pressure, and opportunities to expand the processing margin can be considered [74][77]. 2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong increased sporadically. The caustic soda price is expected to have difficulty rising further after the basis has been adjusted [77][78]. 2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The imported wood pulp price was stable. The pulp price is expected to have limited upward space as the supply - demand situation remains unchanged [79][80]. 2.22 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC powder market was slightly weaker. The PVC price is expected to have limited upward space as the fundamentals are weakening [81][82]. 2.23 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The float glass price in the Shahe market was stable. The glass price is expected to have a trading range of [900, 1100] yuan/ton, and a long - glass short - soda ash strategy is recommended [83][84]. 2.24 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash market in North China was stable. The soda ash price is expected to be sold short on rallies in the medium term [85][86]. 2.25 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - OPEC's June production increased, and China's June crude oil processing volume rebounded. The crude oil price is expected to oscillate in the short term [87][88]. 2.26 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - Shipping companies adjusted their US - East routes. The container freight rate is expected to have short - selling opportunities for the EC2510 contract and 10 - 12 reverse spread opportunities [90][92].

1. Report Summary - The report analyzes the financial and commodity markets on July 15, 2025, covering macro - strategies, commodities, and shipping. It provides news, analysis, and investment advice for each sector. 2. Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content 3. Core Views - China's economic data shows positive trends, with June exports increasing by 5.8% and imports by 1.1%. The overall economic situation has improved, and comprehensive policies to address "involution" are gradually taking effect [21][20] - Trump's tariff threat against Russia is less effective, and the US dollar index continues to rebound [14][15] - The short - term bond market is weak, but there is long - term optimism, suggesting to buy mid - term long positions on dips [27][28] - The steel price remains volatile, supported by "anti - involution" policies, but caution is needed when chasing long positions [43] - The price of palm oil may correct, suggesting to buy long positions on dips or hedge with short positions on other oils [36] 4. Summary by Category 4.1 Financial News and Reviews - **Macro - strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - Dollar Index)**: Hasset is a leading candidate for the next Fed Chair. Trump is open to EU trade talks and threatens Russia with 100% tariffs. The dollar index is expected to strengthen in the short term [13][14][15] - **Macro - strategy (US Stock Index Futures)**: Trump threatens Russia with high tariffs, and the EU may impose counter - tariffs on $72 billion of US goods. Market volatility may increase, and the index valuation center may move up [16][17][18] - **Macro - strategy (Stock Index Futures)**: Comprehensive policies to address "involution" are gradually taking effect, and China's June exports and imports are showing positive growth, which is expected to boost market sentiment [20][21] - **Macro - strategy (Treasury Bond Futures)**: Social financing data is strong, and the bond market is weak in the short term but optimistic in the long term. It is recommended to buy mid - term long positions on dips [27][28] 4.2 Commodity News and Reviews - **Black Metal (Steam Coal)**: High summer temperatures increase coal consumption, and coal prices are expected to remain strong in the short term [29] - **Black Metal (Iron Ore)**: Iron ore prices are stable, with mild fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see [30] - **Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal)**: US soybean growth conditions are better than expected, and domestic oil mills' soybean meal inventory is rising. The market is concerned about US tariff policies and NOPA's monthly report [31][32] - **Agricultural Products (Palm Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Kernel Oil)**: Indian palm oil imports have increased significantly, and domestic palm oil inventory is rising. There is a risk of correction in the short term, and it is recommended to buy long positions on dips [34][35][36] - **Agricultural Products (Cotton)**: India has sold more than half of its MSP - purchased cotton. China's textile exports are mixed, and the downstream industry is in a downturn, which may limit the upward momentum of cotton prices [37][39][40] - **Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil)**: Steel prices are volatile, and "anti - involution" policies support prices in the short term. It is recommended to be cautious when chasing long positions [43] - **Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke)**: Coking coal prices are rising, mainly driven by macro factors. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [45][46] - **Agricultural Products (Corn Starch)**: Corn starch prices are slightly down, and demand is loosening. The uncertainty of CS - C in the future is high [47] - **Agricultural Products (Corn)**: Corn imports are down year - to - date, and spot prices are falling. It is recommended to pay attention to import auctions and inventory [48][49] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Copper)**: Luoyang Molybdenum's profit is expected to increase significantly in the first half of the year. The US tariff policy and inflation data will affect copper prices, which are expected to be volatile in the short term [52][55] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Lead)**: The lead market is in a state of both supply and demand increase, and prices are expected to rise. It is recommended to buy on dips and pay attention to the investigation in Gansu [56][57] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate)**: Yichun's policy has increased supply uncertainty, and lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [59] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc)**: Zinc fundamentals are weakening, but the short - term macro sentiment is strong. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and protect previous short positions [63][64] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel)**: Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate in a low - level range in the short term and decline in the medium - term [66][67] - **Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil)**: Trump pressures Russia to cease fire, and oil prices are expected to fluctuate [68] - **Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas)**: The domestic market is weak, and prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [70][72] - **Energy Chemicals (Asphalt)**: Asphalt prices are expected to rise slightly [73] - **Energy Chemicals (PX)**: PX prices have rebounded, and the medium - long - term de - stocking pattern continues. It is recommended to pay attention to the implementation of maintenance plans [74][75] - **Energy Chemicals (PTA)**: PTA prices are expected to fluctuate slightly stronger in the short term [78][79] - **Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda)**: The caustic soda market is rising, but it may be difficult to continue rising [80][81] - **Energy Chemicals (Paper Pulp)**: Pulp prices are driven up by the market, but the upward space is limited [82][83] - **Energy Chemicals (PVC)**: PVC prices are rebounding, but the upward space is limited [84] - **Energy Chemicals (Urea)**: Urea exports are accelerating, and the market is expected to fluctuate [86][87] - **Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips)**: Bottle chip factories are implementing production cuts, and it is recommended to buy on dips to expand processing fees [89] - **Energy Chemicals (Styrene)**: The pure benzene market is expected to improve in July - August, but the downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to wait for a safer valuation [91] - **Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate)**: China's imports and exports are growing, and the SCFIS (European Line) index is rising. The futures valuation center of the European line may move up [93][94]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report focuses on the high - frequency data tracking of the European Line, including loading rates, ship schedules, capacities, port congestion, and ship - schedule delays. It shows that the European Line's loading rates are at a relatively high level with minor fluctuations, ship schedules are affected by various factors leading to delays, port congestion is a significant issue in Asia and Europe, and future capacity has some planned and potential changes [7][10][16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Directory 3.1 European Line Loading Rate - W28 European Line fleet's average loading rate from Chinese ports was 91.7%, a slight increase of 0.4% from the previous period. Due to ship - schedule delays, the sample collection volume was lower than average [7]. - W27 European Line fleet's loading rate from Asian ports was 97.2%, a slight decrease of 0.4% from the previous period. The loading difference between Asian and Chinese ports was about 5.9%, higher than the average from April to May [7]. - OA's Chinese - port loading rate was 94.3%, remaining unchanged; PA and MSC's was 90.6%, also unchanged; Gemini's was 87.9%, increasing by 1 point [7]. 3.2 European Line Ship Schedule and Capacity - W30 - W31 weekly capacities were 277,000 TEU and 325,000 TEU respectively. The average weekly capacity in August was 305,000 TEU, slightly higher than July's 291,000 TEU. The average capacity in the first half of August (W33 - 34) was 299,000 TEU, and in the second half was 318,000 TEU. The average weekly capacity in September was 289,000 TEU [12]. - There were 6 ship - schedule delays from W28 to W29, including 1 from Gemini, 2 from OA, and 3 from MSC. There were also 2 voyages with potential issues [12]. - Due to the continuous pressure on Asian and European port operations, the risk of ship - schedule delays in subsequent weeks is still high, especially from W29 - W32 [10]. 3.3 European Line - Related Port Congestion Data - In China, the superposition of the typhoon season and the export peak will continue to put pressure on domestic ports. The average in - port duration of ships in Qingdao, Yangshan, Ningbo, and Yantian ports has increased [16]. - In Southeast Asia, the port - congestion pressure has rebounded after a brief easing, especially in Port Klang. The average in - port time of ships in Singapore is 1.3 days, and in Port Klang is 2.3 days [16]. - In Europe, problems such as summer vacations, labor shortages, railway shutdowns in Germany, and low water levels in the Rhine will gradually appear in the next two months, and European ports will face increasing congestion pressure. Currently, the overall congestion level is lower than the same period last year [16]. 3.4 European Line Ship - Schedule Delays and Warnings - There are multiple ship - schedule delays in W28 - W32 for different alliances such as OA, Gemini, and MSC&PA. For example, in W29, many ships in different routes of these alliances were late - departing, and the departure times were postponed [18][20]. - Warnings are issued for different routes of each alliance in W29 - W34, such as AE1, AE3 for OA; FAL3, CES, NE3 for Gemini; and FE4, FE6 for MSC&PA [20][23][25].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of July 11, 2025, the mainstream prices of 2.0mm and 3.2mm coated photovoltaic glass remained flat week-on-week, hitting record lows with intensified market competition [1][8]. - Last week, one photovoltaic glass production line was cold - repaired, and the industry supply continued to shrink. However, the reduction speed slowed down, and future supply reduction expectations were low. Some manufacturers continued the low - price strategy [1][11]. - The industry demand is weak, and overall orders can't maintain long - term production - sales balance. Some downstream players are stocking at low prices, but the impact on the market is small [1][20]. - The industry inventory is rising and is expected to continue rising due to weak short - term demand recovery and oversupply [1][22]. - The industry's gross profit continued to decline last week, and the loss deepened. Some enterprises are accelerating order - taking at low prices [1][27]. - The future price trend depends on the manufacturers' production reduction rhythm. If the reduction accelerates, prices may stop falling; otherwise, there is still room for price decline [2][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Photovoltaic Glass Weekly Outlook - Supply: One production line was cold - repaired last week, supply continued to shrink, reduction speed slowed, and future reduction expectations were low. Some manufacturers used the low - price strategy [1][7][11]. - Demand: Orders are insufficient to maintain production - sales balance. Some downstream players are stocking at low prices, with limited market impact [1][7][20]. - Inventory: Inventory is rising and is expected to continue due to weak demand recovery and oversupply [1][7][22]. - Cost - profit: Gross profit declined last week, and losses deepened. Some enterprises are accelerating order - taking at low prices [1][7][27]. - Price trend: Future price trend depends on production reduction rhythm. Faster reduction may lead to price stabilization; otherwise, prices may fall further [2][7]. 2. Domestic Photovoltaic Glass Industry Chain Data Overview 2.1 Photovoltaic Glass Spot Price - As of July 11, 2025, the mainstream price of 2.0mm coated (panel) photovoltaic glass was 10.5 yuan/square meter, and that of 3.2mm coated was 18 yuan/square meter, both flat week - on - week, hitting record lows [1][8]. 2.2 Supply - side - One production line was cold - repaired last week, supply continued to shrink, reduction speed slowed, and future supply reduction expectations were low. Some manufacturers continued the low - price strategy [1][11]. 2.3 Demand - side - Industry demand is weak, and overall orders can't maintain long - term production - sales balance. Some downstream players are stocking at low prices, but the impact on the market is small [1][20]. 2.4 Inventory - side - The industry inventory is rising and is expected to continue rising due to weak short - term demand recovery and oversupply [1][22]. 2.5 Cost - profit - side - The industry's gross profit continued to decline last week, and the loss deepened. Some enterprises are accelerating order - taking at low prices [1][27]. 2.6 Trade - side - From January to May 2025, China's photovoltaic glass export volume increased by 6.1% compared with the same period in 2024 [36].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided in the content. 2. Report's Core View The report analyzes the impact of various events on different financial and commodity markets. Key events include Trump's proposed 30% tariffs on Mexico and the EU, policy changes in the US and China, and supply - demand dynamics in multiple industries. These events lead to different market trends and investment outlooks in various sectors, such as financial futures, commodities like metals, energy, and agricultural products [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Trump announced a 30% tariff on the EU and Mexico starting August 1st. Gold showed strong performance on Friday due to increased market risk aversion. However, the strength is less than in April because of the strong US dollar and lower uncertainty. Gold is expected to be strong in the short - term but remain in a volatile range [12][13]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The EU extended the suspension of counter - measures to negotiate with the US. Trump's tariff policy is expected to increase short - term market risk aversion, causing the US dollar index to rise. The US dollar is expected to continue rising in the short - term [15][16][17]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - China and the US strengthened communication, and the Chinese government promoted a long - cycle assessment mechanism for insurance funds. The A - share market is over - valued, and the index is expected to oscillate at a high level. It is recommended to allocate various stock indices evenly [20][21]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - New tariff threats may delay the Fed's interest rate cut and make the inflation outlook unclear. Trump's 30% tariff on Mexico and the EU may lead to market risk aversion. US stock indices are expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to control positions carefully [22][23]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations. The bond market is expected to oscillate in the short - term. It is recommended that trading desks moderately buy Treasury bonds and sell them after the futures rebound [25][26][27]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metal (Steam Coal) - On July 11th, the price of steam coal in the northern port market remained stable. High temperatures increased power plant demand, and port inventories decreased. Coal prices are expected to remain strong in the short - term [28]. 3.2.2 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - In June, the monthly operating rate of China's construction machinery decreased. Iron ore prices rebounded, but the 100 - dollar key level is difficult to break through. It is recommended to wait and see [29][30]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - In the 28th week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was lower than expected, and it is expected to increase in the 29th week. After the release of the double - monthly reports, the oil market will enter the next stage of expected trading. Different oils have different investment suggestions [31][32]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Analysts estimated that the US soybean crushing volume in June decreased by 4% from May but increased by 5.5% year - on - year. USDA raised the end - of - season soybean inventory. The price of soybean meal is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and the basis is expected to remain weak [33][34][36]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Brazil's port sugar - waiting ships increased, and its 2025 sugarcane production is expected to decline. Pakistan is seeking to purchase 30 - 500,000 tons of sugar. The international sugar price is expected to stabilize and weakly rebound in the short - term, but the upside is limited [37][38][39]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - Xinjiang's cotton topping work is basically completed. USDA's July report raised the end - of - season cotton inventory in the US and globally. ICE cotton prices are expected to oscillate at a low level, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be strong in the short - term [42][44][45]. 3.2.7 Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal market in Lvliang is strong, and the expectation of a coke price increase is rising. The short - term rise is mainly affected by macro factors, and it is recommended to wait and see [47][48]. 3.2.8 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The retail and wholesale of passenger cars in early July showed different trends, and the dealer inventory coefficient increased. The steel price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term. It is recommended to be cautious about going long and use a hedging strategy for spot [53][54]. 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The price difference between tapioca starch and corn starch widened slightly. Corn starch inventory increased, and the future is uncertain [55]. 3.2.10 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The成交 rate of imported corn auctions decreased. If the inventory and auction data continue to be bearish, the spot price in the northern port may decline slightly, and it is recommended to short new - crop contracts in advance [56][57]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Osisko may expand a copper deposit in Quebec, and Codelco's copper production increased by 9% in the first half of the year. The global macro - expectation risk is rising, and the copper price may be under pressure in the short - term [58][60][61]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Philippine nickel ore exports to Indonesia are expected to increase. The nickel price is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short - term, and it is recommended to short on rallies in the medium - term [62][63][64]. 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - China's lithium carbonate production increased in June and is expected to rise in July. The lithium carbonate price is expected to be strong in the short - term and may decline in the medium - term [65][66]. 3.2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Wuxi Suntech found a new trustee. Polysilicon companies raised their quotes. The price is expected to be bullish in general but may correct in the short - term [67][68][69]. 3.2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - Yunnan's industrial silicon production increased during the flood season, and Xinjiang's production decreased. The industrial silicon price has strong resistance to decline, and it is recommended to short on rallies [70][71][72]. 3.2.16 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - A central China lead smelter resumed production. The lead price is expected to rise in the long - term, and it is recommended to buy on dips in the short - term [73][74][75]. 3.2.17 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - LME zinc inventories decreased, and the 0 - 3 spread increased. The zinc price is expected to be mainly affected by macro factors in the short - term, and it is recommended to manage positions carefully [76][78][79]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The EUA futures price decreased on July 11th. The EU carbon price is expected to be strong in the short - term [80][82]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Russia plans to compensate for over - production from August to September. IEA lowered the global crude oil demand growth forecast. The oil price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [82][83][84]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - Bottle chip factories' export quotes are mostly stable, and they plan to cut production in July. It is recommended to look for opportunities to expand processing fees by buying on dips [85][87]. 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong increased slightly. The caustic soda price is expected to have difficulty rising further [87][88]. 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp increased. The pulp price is expected to have limited upside due to unchanged supply - demand [89]. 3.2.23 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC market is consolidating. PVC prices are expected to have limited upside due to deteriorating fundamentals [90]. 3.2.24 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash market is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium - term [91]. 3.2.25 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in Shahe increased. The glass price is expected to have a large fluctuation range, and it is recommended to use an arbitrage strategy [92][93]. 3.2.26 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - Ningbo - Zhoushan Port ranked seventh in the global shipping center. The EC2508 futures price is expected to oscillate between 1950 - 2050 in the short - term [94][95].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Oscillation; Polysilicon: Oscillation [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The production plan of large factories in Xinjiang will have a significant impact on the fundamentals of industrial silicon. The failure of large factories in Xinjiang to resume production as expected has led to a marginal improvement in the fundamentals of industrial silicon. For polysilicon, in response to the government's "anti - involution" policy, polysilicon enterprises have raised their offers, but the actual transactions are yet to be seen. The price increase of polysilicon depends on the implementation of production cuts and the price increase of downstream products [2][3] - For industrial silicon, it is recommended to pay attention to the short - selling opportunities on rebounds and wait for right - hand signals. For polysilicon, although it is generally bullish, short - term callback risks should be noted, and attention can be paid to the 8 - 9 positive spread arbitrage opportunities [4][17] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - This week, the Si2509 contract of industrial silicon increased by 435 yuan/ton to 8415 yuan/ton. The SMM spot price of East China oxygen - blowing 553 increased by 100 yuan/ton to 8850 yuan/ton, and the price of Xinjiang 99 increased by 250 yuan/ton to 8300 yuan/ton. The PS2508 contract of polysilicon increased by 5820 yuan/ton to 41330 yuan/ton. According to the Silicon Industry Association, the transaction price of N - type re - feeding material this week increased by 2400 yuan/ton to 37100 yuan/ton [10] 3.2 Xinjiang Large Factories' Resumption of Production Falling Short of Expectations, and Attention to the Implementation of PV Anti - Involution Industrial Silicon - This week, the main contract of industrial silicon futures rose significantly. The weekly output was 72,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.31%. The SMM industrial silicon social inventory decreased by 0.1 million tons month - on - month, and the sample factory inventory decreased by 2.6 million tons month - on - month. If the large factory maintains 48 furnaces in operation, industrial silicon may have a monthly de - stocking of 60,000 tons. If it resumes full production at the eastern base, it may have a monthly inventory build - up of 30,000 tons. The market transaction price of 99 silicon powder rose to about 9000 - 9100 yuan/ton [12] Organic Silicon - This week, the price of organic silicon bottomed out and rebounded. The overall enterprise operating rate this week was 70.9%, the weekly output was 46,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.64%, and the inventory was 48,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.41% [12][13] Polysilicon - This week, the main contract of polysilicon futures continued to rise sharply. The quoted price of N - type polysilicon re - feeding material ranges from 43 to 49 yuan/kg, but there are no actual transactions yet. It is expected that the polysilicon production schedule in July will increase to 110,000 tons, and it will enter a monthly inventory build - up state. As of July 10, the inventory of Chinese polysilicon factories was 276,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.4 million tons [13] Silicon Wafers - This week, the quoted price of silicon wafers was significantly increased, but there were no market transactions yet. The production schedule in July is expected to be 52GW, a month - on - month decrease of more than 10%. As of July 10, the silicon wafer factory inventory was 18.13GW, a month - on - month decrease of 1.09GW [14] Battery Cells - This week, the quoted price of battery cells was significantly increased. The production schedule of battery cells in July is expected to be 54GW, still in an oversupply state. As of July 7, the inventory of Chinese photovoltaic battery export factories was 12.86GW, a month - on - month increase of 1.33GW [15] Components - This week, the component price was stalemate. The 7 - month component production schedule is expected to be 45GW. The difficulty in component price increase lies in its lag and the preferential issues in downstream actual procurement [16] 3.3 Investment Recommendations Industrial Silicon - It is recommended to pay attention to the short - selling opportunities on rebounds of industrial silicon. Observing right - hand signals such as large factories' resumption of production and warehouse receipt registration may be safer [17] Polysilicon - Generally, a bullish view is taken on polysilicon, but short - term callback risks should be noted. It is recommended to pay attention to the 8 - 9 positive spread arbitrage opportunities [17] 3.4 Hot News Collation - From the settlement on July 14, 2025, the daily price limit of polysilicon futures contracts will be adjusted to 9%, the speculative trading margin standard will be adjusted to 11%, and the hedging trading margin standard will be adjusted to 10% [18] - Hongyuan Green Energy intends to participate in the pre - reorganization of Wuxi Suntech. Its subsidiary will cooperate with Wuxi Suntech for production and operation management [18] - Runyang's Yunnan base resumed full - load production in 10 days, breaking the industry record [18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report rates the short - term (1 - 3 months), medium - term (3 - 6 months), and long - term (6 - 12 months) trends of lithium carbonate as "oscillating", with an amplitude of - 5% - +5% [51]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, lithium salt prices showed a strong and oscillating trend. In the short term, lithium carbonate is expected to continue to oscillate strongly due to the better - than - expected demand in the off - season, the rapid increase of ore prices following the market, and the slow generation of new warehouse receipts. In the long term, the market may return to a downward channel under the pressure of over - supply [2][3]. - The supply - side pressure is limited. During the rebound, the profit margin of the lithium salt processing link did not significantly increase, and the import pressure has decreased in the past two months. The focus of market competition lies in the demand side, and the trading situation in the spot market needs to be continuously monitored [3]. - It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunities of buying at low prices and positive spreads in the short term, while waiting for a more suitable time to enter the market for medium - term short positions [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Disk Turns to Oscillation and Consolidation, and Downstream Buying Orders Are Gradually Released - Last week (07/07 - 07/11), lithium salt prices showed a strong and oscillating trend. The closing prices of LC2507 and LC2509 changed by - 1.2% and +1.6% respectively. The spot average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 2.3% and 2.4% respectively. The decline of lithium hydroxide narrowed. The price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate widened to 0.63 million yuan/ton [2][12]. - The market rebounded rapidly to the 65,000 - yuan level and then oscillated narrowly between 64,000 - 65,000 yuan. Due to the lag in price adjustment by third - party quotation agencies, the downstream's fear of purchasing increased, and the basis weakened. After the market entered the oscillation phase, downstream inquiries and transactions increased, indicating that the demand in the off - season was better than expected [2]. - Looking forward, the supply - side pressure is limited. The profit window of the lithium salt processing link has not significantly opened, and the import pressure has decreased. The focus of market competition is on the demand side [3]. 3.2. Weekly Review of Industry News - Hunan Chenzhou discovered 490 million tons of lithium ore. The Jijiaoshan mining area in Linwu County, Chenzhou City, Hunan Province, discovered a super - large altered granite - type lithium deposit, with 490 million tons of lithium ore and 1.31 million tons of lithium oxide resources [16]. - Premier restarted the Zulu lithium project in Zimbabwe. After improving the recovery rate and grade of spodumene concentrate, Premier African Minerals restarted the operation of the Zulu lithium - tantalum project in Zimbabwe on July 6, with an estimated mineral resource of 526,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent and 1,025 tons of tantalum pentoxide [16]. - In the first half of the year, the cumulative installed capacity of power batteries in China increased by 47.3% year - on - year. In June 2025, the installed capacity of power batteries in China was 58.2GWh, a month - on - month increase of 1.9% and a year - on - year increase of 35.9%. From January to June, the cumulative installed capacity was 299.6GWh, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 47.3% [17]. - The previously restarted production capacity continued to be released, and the output of lithium carbonate increased in June. In June, the domestic lithium carbonate output was 74,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.7%. The planned output for July is 79,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.1% [17]. 3.3. Monitoring of Key High - Frequency Data in the Industry Chain 3.3.1. Resource End: The Spot Quotation of Lithium Concentrate Continued to Rebound - The spot average price of lithium concentrate showed an upward trend [18]. 3.3.2. Lithium Salt: The Market Oscillated at a High Level - The closing price of the main lithium carbonate futures contract and the term structure showed certain fluctuations [21]. 3.3.3. Downstream Intermediates: Quotes Slightly Increased - The prices of downstream intermediate products such as lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and cobalt acid lithium showed a slight upward trend [13]. 3.3.4. Terminal: China's New Energy Vehicles Continued to Reduce Inventory in June - In June, the new energy vehicle market in China continued the inventory reduction trend, and relevant indicators such as production, sales, and penetration rate were monitored [41].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "oscillating" [5] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Market risk appetite has cooled, with most stock markets rising, bond yields mostly increasing, and the US dollar index strengthening. The upcoming US tariffs and the Fed's independence issues are causing market uncertainty and potential volatility [1][2] - The US is imposing high reciprocal tariffs on multiple countries, aiming to pressure trade partners into reaching agreements. The US dollar may remain strong in the short - term, but faces downward pressure in the medium - term, and market risk aversion is expected to rise [35][36] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Global Market Overview This Week - Market risk appetite cooled. Most stock markets rose, bond yields mostly increased, with the US Treasury yield reaching 4.41%. The US dollar index rose 0.69% to 97.8, and most non - US currencies depreciated. Gold prices rose 0.6% to $3355 per ounce, the VIX index dropped to 16.4, and the spot commodity index rose, with Brent crude oil up 2.4% to $72.4 per barrel [1][8] 2. Market Trading Logic and Asset Performance 2.1 Stock Market - Global stock markets mostly rose, with US stocks falling and A - shares rising. The S&P 500 dropped 0.31%, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.09%. The upcoming US tariffs and the Fed's independence issues may cause the stock market to face downward pressure and adjustment risks [9][10] 2.2 Bond Market - Global bond yields mostly increased, with the 10 - year US Treasury yield rising to 4.41%. Eurozone government bonds mostly increased, and emerging - market bond yields mostly rebounded. The US bond supply pressure is not fully reflected, but inflation pressure is increasing, and bond yields are expected to continue rising [13][16][19] 2.3 Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index rose 0.69% to 97.8, and most non - US currencies depreciated. The offshore RMB fell 0.12%, the euro dropped 0.77%, the pound fell 1.16%, the yen declined 2.05%, and the Swiss franc dropped 0.33%. The Brazilian real and the South African rand fell more than 2%, and the South Korean won, New Zealand dollar, Canadian dollar, etc. also declined [25][28] 2.4 Commodity Market - Spot gold rose 0.6% to $3355 per ounce. The upcoming US tariffs increased market risk aversion, and gold prices are expected to remain high with potential increased volatility. Brent crude oil rose 2.4% to $72.4 per barrel. The crude oil supply - demand pattern is weak, but the US tariff on copper imports caused Comex copper to strengthen, and the commodity spot index rose [29][32] 3. Hotspot Tracking - The US reciprocal tariffs are back, and market volatility has intensified. The US is imposing high tariffs on multiple countries, and the trade negotiation progress is slow. The US dollar may be strong in the short - term, and market risk aversion is expected to rise [33][35][36] 4. Next Week's Important Events - China's June foreign trade and financial data, the second - quarter GDP, the US June CPI, PPI, retail sales, the Fed's Beige Book, Japan's June CPI, and the US July University of Michigan consumer confidence index and inflation expectations will be released [37]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for treasury bonds is "oscillation" [6] 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, risk appetite has rebounded, but in the long - term, the bond market is still bullish. Although the recent trend of treasury bonds is relatively weak, the logic of activities like "transfer trade" is not sustainable. The long - term fundamental situation remains unchanged. Once risk appetite starts to decline and there are incremental positive factors, the bond market will strengthen non - linearly. Therefore, it is recommended to lay out medium - term long positions on dips [2][14][16] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 One - Week Review and Views 3.1.1 This Week's Trend Review - From July 7th to July 13th, treasury bond futures oscillated and adjusted. On Monday, with a calm market news and slightly tightened funding, treasury bond futures oscillated narrowly, and the 30Y interest rate rose slightly due to the news of ultra - long special treasury bond issuance. On Tuesday, as trade conflict intensity was within market expectations, rising certificate of deposit (CD) rates and a strong stock market led to an oscillating decline in treasury bond futures. On Wednesday, the stock market weakened while long - term treasury bond futures strengthened, and the short - term ones were relatively weak with a flattening yield curve. On Thursday, the market sentiment improved marginally in the morning but then the stock market soared, causing the bond market to weaken. In the afternoon, the expectation of real - estate stabilizing policies led to a plunge in treasury bond futures. On Friday, with balanced funding, the bond market fluctuated with the stock market. As of July 11th, the settlement prices of the main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were 102.412, 105.975, 108.815, and 120.510 yuan respectively, down 0.096, 0.275, 0.295, and 0.690 yuan from last weekend [1][12] 3.1.2 Next Week's View - The market is still difficult to strengthen next week. With the arrival of the tax period, the funding will marginally tighten, and the expected strong economic data in June and high risk appetite will suppress the bond market. However, in the long - run, it is advisable to lay out medium - term long positions on dips. Strategies include holding long positions, paying attention to positive arbitrage opportunities in treasury bond futures, and stopping profit on the strategy of steepening the yield curve first and then looking for new opportunities [2][14][15][16] 3.2 Weekly Observation of Interest - Rate Bonds 3.2.1 Primary Market - This week, 70 interest - rate bonds were issued with a total issuance of 69 billion yuan and a net financing of 46.2369 billion yuan, up 17.6781 billion and 8.579 billion yuan respectively from last week. 45 local government bonds were issued with a total issuance of 23.179 billion yuan and a net financing of 11.0229 billion yuan, up 15.9651 billion and 8.858 billion yuan respectively. 454 CDs were issued with a total issuance of 42.713 billion yuan and a net financing of - 8.339 billion yuan, up 18.416 billion and down 8.057 billion yuan respectively [20] 3.2.2 Secondary Market - Treasury bond yields rose. As of July 11th, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds were 1.40%, 1.53%, 1.66%, and 1.87% respectively, up 4.28, 3.41, 2.05, and 1.95 basis points from last weekend. The 10Y - 1Y, 10Y - 5Y, and 30Y - 10Y spreads narrowed. The yields of 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year policy - bank bonds were 1.50%, 1.61%, and 1.71% respectively, up 5.03, 4.51, and 3.13 basis points from last weekend [30] 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures 3.3.1 Price, Trading Volume, and Open Interest - Treasury bond futures oscillated and adjusted. As of July 11th, the settlement prices of the main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were 102.412, 105.975, 108.815, and 120.510 yuan respectively, down 0.096, 0.275, 0.295, and 0.690 yuan from last weekend. The trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures this week were 38,238, 66,066, 72,274, and 98,226 lots respectively, up 7,022, 7,450, 1,993, and 16,442 lots from last weekend. The open interests were 124,636, 202,629, 244,640, and 150,356 lots respectively, with changes of - 673, + 9,156, + 4,737, and + 6,317 lots from last weekend [38][43] 3.3.2 Basis and Implied Repo Rate (IRR) - Positive arbitrage opportunities were not obvious this week. With balanced and loose funding, the basis of futures oscillated narrowly. The IRR of the cheapest - to - deliver (CTD) bonds of each main contract was around 1.8%, and the current CD rate was slightly higher than 1.6%, resulting in relatively few positive arbitrage opportunities [48] 3.3.3 Inter - Delivery and Inter - Variety Spreads - As of July 11th, the inter - delivery spreads of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures between the 2509 and 2512 contracts were - 0.100, - 0.105, - 0.040, and + 0.180 yuan respectively, with changes of + 0.024, - 0.020, + 0.045, and + 0.050 yuan from last weekend. The far - term contracts adjusted more this week [53] 3.4 Weekly Observation of Funding - The central bank net - withdrew 22.65 billion yuan through reverse repurchase operations this week. As of July 11th, R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week were 1.51%, 1.47%, 1.33%, and 1.48% respectively, up 0.86, 0.58, 2.80, and 5.20 basis points from last weekend. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase was 8.21 trillion yuan, up 0.61 trillion yuan from last week, and the overnight proportion was 89.57%, slightly lower than last week [57][60][63] 3.5 Weekly Overseas Observation - The US dollar index strengthened slightly, and the 10Y US treasury bond yield rose slightly. As of July 11th, the US dollar index rose 0.91% to 97.8731 from last weekend, the 10Y US treasury bond yield was 4.43%, up 8 basis points from last weekend, and the yield spread between Chinese and US 10Y treasury bonds was inverted by 276.7 basis points [67] 3.6 Weekly Observation of High - Frequency Inflation Data - Industrial product prices rose this week. As of July 11th, the Nanhua Industrial Product Index, Metal Index, and Energy and Chemical Index were 3,612.73, 6,281.86, and 1,679.68 points respectively, up 55.22, 65.52, and 29.21 points from last weekend. Agricultural product prices also rose, with the prices of pork, 28 key vegetables, and 7 key fruits at 20.60, 4.42, and 7.45 yuan/kg respectively, up 0.02, 0.08, and 0.15 yuan/kg from last weekend [70] 3.7 Investment Suggestions - It is recommended to lay out medium - term long positions on dips [71]