周度报告-国债期货 PMI 不及预期，但债市难大幅走强 [Table_Rank] 走势评级： 国债：震荡 报告日期： 2026 年 02 月 01 日 | 张粲东 | 宏观策略高级分析师 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格号： [Table_Analyser] | F3085356 | | 投资咨询号： | Z0018866 | | Tel: | 63325888-1610 | | Email: | candong.zhang@orientfutures.com | 97 102 107 112 117 122 100.5 101.5 102.5 103.5 104.5 105.5 106.5 107.5 108.5 109.5 25/09 25/10 25/11 25/12 26/01 2年期国债期货 5年期国债期货 10年期国债期货 30年期国债期货（右轴） 元 元 [Table_Summary] ★一周复盘：国债期货走势分化 本周（01.26-02.01）国债期货走势分化。周一，市场消息面较为 平静，资金面小幅收敛，短端品种表现较弱。股市震荡偏弱， 此前表现较强的部分板块调整幅度相对较大，长端 ...

日度报告——综合晨报 美国再次面临政府停摆危机，白酒股大涨带 动沪指走强 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2026-01-30 宏观策略（股指期货） 白酒股大涨带动沪指走强 受地产消息面影响，传统蓝筹股大涨，带动沪指走高，近期市 场投机情绪对冲了国家队的抛压，但近期地缘动荡，后续行情 仍然有较大的不确定性。仍建议均衡配置。 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 特朗普：在与国会一起努力避免政府停摆 综 合 特朗普表态努力避免政府停摆，市场风险偏好走弱，美元指数 走低。特朗普最新的表态努力避免政府停摆，美国政府停摆问 题暂时解决。 晨 黑色金属（焦煤/焦炭） 报 吕梁市场炼焦煤线上竞拍价格上涨 短期来看，供应高位同时下游补库结束，整体市场情绪回落， 短期震荡运行。 有色金属（铜） 嘉能可 2025 年铜产量下滑 11% 宏观因素多变，美股科技股下挫叠加美国政府停摆担忧，引发 市场风险偏好反复变化，预计铜价震荡将阶段加剧。 能源化工（液化石油气） 沙特阿美公司 2026 年 2 月 CP 出台 二月 cp 丙烷官方价格小幅高开 5 美金，没有太超市场预期，环 比 1 月官方价格涨 20 美金，跟随 FE 价格 I ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Gold**: After a short - term acceleration in precious metals, beware of the risk of a phased reversal [13] - **Foreign Exchange Futures (US Dollar Index)**: The US dollar index rebounds in the short term [17] - **US Stock Index Futures**: During the earnings season, US stocks are more volatile and are expected to remain in a high - level shock [22] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: It is more cost - effective to short after the market's upward momentum fades [25] - **Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil)**: In the short term, still treat it with a shock mindset, and if the price rebounds, conduct spot hedging at high prices [30] - **Black Metals (Steam Coal)**: The coal price is expected to be strongly supported [31] - **Black Metals (Iron Ore)**: The ore price is expected to remain weakly volatile in a shock [33] - **Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke)**: In the short term, it will operate weakly in a shock [35] - **Agricultural Products (Cotton)**: Zhengzhou cotton has increased positions and risen sharply, and there is still a risk of shock and repetition in the future [41] - **Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal)**: Under the threat of the Argentine weather, the internal and external futures prices may fluctuate strongly. Closely monitor the South American weather and production forecast adjustments [43] - **Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil)**: Pay attention to the support levels of domestic palm oil at 9400 - 9500 yuan and Malaysian palm oil at 4300 ringgit. In the short term, focus on the de - stocking range of Malaysian palm oil in January, the specific details of the US 45Z review, and the domestic market's acceptance of Australian rapeseed oil [45] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate)**: Still view it with a bullish mindset, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips after the trading volume and volatility stabilize, but pay attention to position control and risk management [48] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Copper)**: Unilateral and arbitrage strategies suggest waiting and seeing, and the copper price is expected to remain in a high - level shock [52] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Lead)**: Unilaterally, gradually pay attention to the opportunity to stop losses on short positions; for arbitrage, suggest waiting and seeing [57] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc)**: Unilaterally, be cautious about chasing long, continue to hold previous long positions, and manage positions well; for arbitrage, wait and see in terms of month - spread and internal - external spreads [60] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Tin)**: In the short term, it is expected to maintain a wide - range shock. Focus on the implementation of supply recovery expectations and the improvement of consumption [64] - **Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil)**: Pay attention to changes in geopolitical conflicts in the short term [66] - **Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas)**: It is expected to fluctuate strongly due to ongoing geopolitical disturbances [68] - **Energy and Chemicals (Asphalt)**: The asphalt price fluctuates strongly [69] Core Views - The Fed's January interest - rate meeting kept the interest - rate level unchanged, with an increased marginal optimism about the economy, rising market risk appetite, and a rebound in the US dollar index [17] - Gold prices are rising strongly and accelerating, with increased market volatility. The Fed's interest - rate meeting was as expected, and while the employment market is stable, there is an upward risk of inflation [12] - Steel prices continue to fluctuate, recently showing weakness, with no obvious trend - driven factors. The seasonal weakening of building materials demand suppresses steel prices, but the fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and the valuation is not high, so there is limited downward space [29] - For zinc, the zinc concentrate production of Fresnilloplc in 2025 increased and decreased. Be cautious about chasing long, and previous long positions can be held. Short - term operation is difficult, and position management is recommended [4][59] - The utilization rate of domestic heavy - traffic asphalt production capacity has decreased. Due to the scarcity of low - price heavy - crude oil resources, the rebound of asphalt is relatively strong, but the pre - holiday stocking pace has slowed down, and the actual demand support is weak [5] Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The Fed kept the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% - 3.75%, in line with market expectations. Two Fed governors opposed the decision and supported a 25 - basis - point rate cut [10] - Trump warned Iran, and the situation in Iran remains uncertain, driving gold prices up. The Fed's monetary policy will maintain a wait - and - see attitude in the short term, and short - term precious - metal fluctuations increase [12] 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures (US Dollar Index)) - The US Treasury Secretary defended the Justice Department's investigation of Powell, emphasizing that independence does not mean no responsibility [14] - Trump threatened Iran and urged it to negotiate a nuclear agreement. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged, with a more cautious attitude towards potential future rate adjustments. The US dollar index rebounded in the short term [15][17] 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Tesla's Q4 earnings were higher than expected, but its annual revenue declined for the first time. Meta's Q4 results, Q1 guidance, and annual capital expenditure exceeded expectations. Microsoft's capital expenditure reached a record high, but the growth rate of its cloud business slowed down [18][19][20] - The Fed continued to suspend rate cuts in January, and future rate cuts are still the benchmark path. Large - tech company earnings support market risk appetite, but the market is sensitive to the slowdown of cloud business. US stocks are expected to remain in a high - level shock during the earnings season [21] 1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 377.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse - repurchase operations on January 28, with a net investment of 1.4 billion yuan. The central bank's short - term interest - rate control thinking is clearer [23] - The bond market will enter a shock in the short term, but the shock is expected to be short - lived. It is more cost - effective to short after the market's upward momentum fades [23][25] 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Many real - estate companies are no longer required by regulatory authorities to report the "three red lines" indicators monthly. In 2025, China started the renovation of 27,100 old urban residential areas, exceeding the annual plan. The production volume of three major white - goods in February 2026 decreased compared with the same period last year [26][27][29] - Steel prices continue to fluctuate, with the weakening of building materials demand suppressing prices. The fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and the valuation is not high, so the steel price is expected to maintain a shock pattern. Pay attention to the pre - holiday winter - stocking and spot - futures arbitrage operations of traders [29] 2.2 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - On January 28, the price of steam coal in the northern port market was stable. Some traders expect the coal price to rise, and there was a small amount of demand at the end of the month, but the actual transaction is limited [31] - The steam - coal price has stabilized since January and is expected to be strongly supported in the short term due to the seasonal decline in supply and high demand in February [31] 2.3 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - In 2025, Vale's iron - ore production reached the highest level since 2018. In Q4, iron - ore production increased by 6% year - on - year, while pellet production decreased by 9% [32] - Iron - ore prices are expected to remain weakly volatile in a shock before and after the Spring Festival due to concerns about plate orders and the end of raw - material replenishment [32] 2.4 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The price of coking coal in the Changzhi market remained stable. Most coal mines maintained normal production, and downstream coke enterprises' replenishment was basically completed. The first round of coke price increase is still in the game stage [34] - In the short term, the coking - coal market will operate weakly in a shock due to high supply and the end of downstream replenishment [34] 2.5 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - As of January 24, 2026, the cotton - planting progress in Brazil reached 60.6%, accelerating significantly year - on - year. As of January 23, the inspection volume of US cotton accounted for 96.9% of the estimated annual output, with a slower progress year - on - year [36][37] - The sales rate of Xinjiang cotton is higher than that of the previous year, and cotton enterprises are more willing to support the basis. Zhengzhou cotton increased positions and rose sharply, but there is still a risk of shock and repetition in the future due to factors such as the narrowing of the cotton - yarn price difference and the approaching Spring Festival [40] 2.6 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - It is estimated that the domestic soybean - crushing volume in February will decrease year - on - year. The estimated arrival of imported soybeans at domestic oil mills in February is about 5.005 million tons, and the estimated arrivals in March and April are 4.8 million tons and 9.5 million tons respectively [42][43] - The hot and dry weather in Argentina threatens soybean production, and the CBOT soybean and soybean - meal futures prices have risen. The domestic soybean - meal spot market is stable, and the internal and external futures prices may fluctuate strongly under the threat of the Argentine weather [43] 2.7 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Argentina is experiencing continuous high - temperature and drought weather, which may lead to a decline in the 2025/26 crop yield [44] - The oil market continued to rise. The drought in Argentina may affect the new - crop soybean yield and support the FOB price of Argentine soybean oil. Pay attention to the support levels of palm oil and relevant factors such as the de - stocking of Malaysian palm oil and the domestic acceptance of Australian rapeseed oil [45] 2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Tianci Materials' annual production capacity of lithium hexafluorophosphate is about 110,000 tons, and it plans to expand the production capacity in the future [46] - The lithium - carbonate market is in a high - level shock, and the core issue is the downward price transmission. The demand supports the price, but the industrial negative feedback needs time to materialize. It is recommended to view it with a bullish mindset and pay attention to long - on - dip opportunities [47][48] 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - The owners of Turkey's largest open - pit copper mine have hired Goldman Sachs to handle the sale. Grupo Mexico plans to invest billions of dollars in multiple projects in the next decade, and its 2026 copper production plan is 1.028 million tons [50][52] - In the short term, the copper price is likely to operate in a high - level shock due to the volatile US dollar, marginal improvement in domestic demand, and weakening downstream replenishment demand [52] 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The fog in Henan affected the arrival of waste batteries, and a large - scale smelting enterprise reduced production by 30%. The LME lead was at a discount of $47.43 per ton on January 27 [53][54][56] - The lead market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Although the reduction of secondary smelters is expanding, there is no clear upward driving force, and the lead price may bottom - seek in the short term [56] 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - On January 27, the LME zinc was at a discount of $30.81 per ton. Fresnilloplc's zinc - concentrate production in 2025 was 105,900 tons, a 9% year - on - year decrease, and its production guidance for 2026 is 85,000 - 95,000 tons [58] - The zinc price rose due to the influence of the aluminum price. The overseas energy price increased, and the February smelting production is expected to decline. Be cautious about chasing long, hold previous long positions, and manage positions well [59][60] 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - India significantly reduced the tariff on EU cars, and the price of LPDDR memory used in iPhone increased. On January 27, the LME tin was at a discount of $244 per ton [61][62][63] - The supply - side recovery of tin is uncertain, the demand is weak, and the price is expected to maintain a wide - range shock in the short term. Pay attention to the implementation of supply recovery and consumption improvement [63][64] 2.13 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The US EIA crude - oil inventory decreased in the week ending January 23. Trump threatened Iran again, and the market is pricing in the risk of escalating tensions in the Middle East [65] - Oil prices are rising in a shock, and the short - term market focus is on geopolitical situations, with a possibility of further increase [65] 2.14 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - As of January 23, the EIA propane/propylene inventory decreased by 4.7 million barrels. The increase in exports was the main reason for the inventory reduction, and the price was strong due to geopolitical disturbances [67] - Due to ongoing geopolitical disturbances, the price of liquefied petroleum gas is expected to fluctuate strongly [68] 2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Asphalt) - From January 22 - 28, 2026, the utilization rate of domestic asphalt production capacity decreased. The BU futures price rose stronger than crude oil due to the scarcity of low - price heavy - crude oil resources, but the pre - holiday stocking slowed down, and the actual demand support was weak [68] - The asphalt price is expected to fluctuate strongly, and pay attention to the post - holiday raw - material procurement [68][69]

特朗普最新表态对于弱势美元较为满意，市场风险偏好上升， 美元指数明显走弱。 宏观策略（股指期货） 12 月规上工企利润同比增 5.3% 综 A 股震荡缩量上涨，市场仍有一定韧性，但逻辑主线近期较为混 乱，投机情绪主导行情。未来随着监管层持续加码，我们认为 风格差异或将收敛。仍建议均衡配置各股指多头。 日度报告——综合晨报 美元走弱，金价再创新高 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2026-01-28 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 美国消费者信心跌至 2014 年以来低点 合 宏观策略（黄金） 晨 CME 调整白银保证金 报 金价再度上涨创新高，主要受到美元指数大跌的驱动，一方面 是市场对美元信用的担忧持续强化，对黄金储备需求增加。一 方面是日本有联合干预外汇市场的预期，美元大跌利多黄金 有色金属（锡） Alphamin 2025 年锡矿产量 18,576 吨 印尼拟出台锡的最低成本价格机制 能源化工（原油） API 美国原油库存下降 油价上涨，因供应扰动因素支撑油价。 未获得东证期货书面授权，任何人不得对本报告进行任何形式的发布、复制。本报告的信息均来源于 公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作 ...

1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Trump's statement that he does not rule out the possibility of reaching a diplomatic agreement with Iran has led to a short - term decline in risk - aversion sentiment and an increase in market risk appetite. The dollar index is expected to fluctuate in the short term [11]. - The upcoming policy to promote service consumption may have an impact on the A - share market. The market is currently in a state of rapid rotation, and the overall risk is controllable. It is recommended to continue holding long positions in stock index futures [17]. - The long - term bearish logic of the bond market remains unchanged. Although there is a short - term rebound, it is advisable to short after the upward momentum fades [20]. - The steel market is expected to be volatile in the short term, and it is advisable to hedge on rallies. The coking coal market is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term. The动力煤 market is expected to have strong price support. The iron ore market is expected to be weak in February [23][25][27][28]. - The soybean meal futures price is expected to remain volatile, and attention should be paid to weather conditions in South American production areas. The vegetable oil market is affected by various factors, and it is not recommended to take unilateral positions in rapeseed oil. Attention can be paid to arbitrage strategies [29][33]. - The lead price is expected to remain in low - level consolidation. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on rallies. The zinc price can be considered for buying on dips, with caution in chasing up. The lithium carbonate price is likely to be prone to rising and difficult to fall, and long - biased strategies can be adopted with attention to risk control [34][40][45]. - The copper price is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and it is advisable to stay on the sidelines in the short term. The tin price is expected to have wide - range fluctuations in the short term. Attention should be paid to supply recovery and consumption improvement [49][53]. - Oil prices are affected by geopolitical situations. Attention should be paid to changes in the Middle East geopolitical situation. The asphalt price is expected to be volatile and strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to geopolitical changes [54][57]. - The urea price is expected to enter a consolidation phase in the short term, with a possible further correction around the Spring Festival. Low - buying opportunities for the 05 contract can be considered after the relative valuation provides a safety margin [60]. - The styrene price may deviate from the industrial logic in the short term due to the intensification of short - squeeze sentiment. It is recommended to shift from low - buying to cautious waiting. The PVC price may be relatively strong in the short term, but the upward space may be limited. The caustic soda near - month contract's rebound height is expected to be limited, while the far - month contract can be considered for light - position long - side layout on dips [63][65][67]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump will raise the tariff rate on a variety of South Korean goods to 25% due to the South Korean Congress's failure to approve and implement the previous trade agreement [10]. - Trump does not completely rule out the possibility of resolving the Iranian issue through diplomacy, leading to a short - term decline in risk - aversion sentiment and an increase in market risk appetite. The dollar index is expected to fluctuate in the short term [11]. - Investment advice: The dollar index is expected to fluctuate in the short term [12]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Trump announced an increase in the tariff rate on South Korean goods to 25%. - The US durable goods orders in November increased by 5.3% month - on - month, exceeding market expectations, mainly driven by aircraft orders. The market risk appetite has marginally improved. - Investment advice: During the earnings season, US stocks are expected to be more volatile and maintain high - level consolidation [16]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Policies to promote service consumption are即将推出. The A - share market is in a state of rapid rotation, with overall controllable risk. - Investment advice: Continue to hold long positions in stock index futures [18]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 150.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 780 million yuan on the day. - The long - term bearish logic of the bond market remains unchanged. Although there is a short - term rebound, it is advisable to short after the upward momentum fades. - Investment advice: Short the bonds after the upward momentum fades [21]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Policies to optimize consumer goods replacement and promote the consumption of large - scale durable goods such as automobiles will be implemented. - Steel prices are expected to fluctuate. It is advisable to hedge on rallies in the short term. - Investment advice: Adopt a volatile trading strategy and hedge on rallies [24]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal market in Lvliang is fluctuating, with prices rising and falling. The market is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term. - Investment advice: The coking coal market is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term [25]. 3.2.3 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The FOB price of Indonesian Q3800 Panamax steam coal is maintained at $50 - 51 per ton. The price is expected to have strong support in the short term. - Investment advice: The steam coal price is expected to have strong support due to seasonal supply decline and high demand in February [27]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The iron ore market of MGX Resources showed a divergence in production and sales in the fourth quarter. The iron ore price is expected to be weak in February. - Investment advice: The iron ore price is expected to be weak in February [28]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The soybean meal inventory of oil mills decreased last week. The futures price is expected to remain volatile. - Investment advice: The soybean meal futures price is expected to remain volatile, and attention should be paid to weather conditions in South American production areas [30]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The palm oil production in Malaysia from January 1 - 25 decreased by 14.81% month - on - month, and exports increased by 7.97% month - on - month. The rapeseed oil market is affected by the uncertainty of China - Canada relations. - Investment advice: It is not recommended to take unilateral positions in rapeseed oil. Attention can be paid to arbitrage strategies [33]. 3.2.7 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount of $44.56 per ton on January 23. The domestic lead ingot inventory increased. The lead price is expected to remain in low - level consolidation. - Investment advice: Look for short - selling opportunities on rallies and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage [36]. 3.2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - South 32's zinc concentrate production in Q4 2025 increased by 25% quarter - on - quarter, and 29Metals' zinc production in Q4 increased by 72% quarter - on - quarter. The domestic zinc ingot inventory decreased. - Investment advice: Buy on dips for unilateral positions, with caution in chasing up. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage [40]. 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange will introduce overseas traders to lithium carbonate futures and options. Sigma Lithium sold 100,000 tons of high - purity lithium ore concentrate powder. - Investment advice: Adopt a long - biased strategy, look for low - buying opportunities after the position volume and volatility stabilize, and pay attention to risk control [45]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - The roadblock in the Escondida copper mining area in Chile has been lifted. Zangge Mining's subsidiary's copper mine phase - II project was put into operation. - Investment advice: The copper price is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and it is advisable to stay on the sidelines in the short term. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage [49]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Tin) - The LME 0 - 3 tin was at a discount of $245 per ton on January 23. The exchange strengthened risk prevention and control. The tin price is expected to have wide - range fluctuations in the short term. - Investment advice: The tin price is expected to have wide - range fluctuations in the short term. Pay attention to supply recovery and consumption improvement [53]. 3.2.12 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The Tengiz oil field in Kazakhstan is preparing to resume production. Oil prices are affected by geopolitical situations. - Investment advice: Pay attention to changes in the Middle East geopolitical situation [55]. 3.2.13 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The asphalt refinery inventory decreased, while the social inventory increased. The asphalt price is expected to be volatile and strong in the short term. - Investment advice: The asphalt price is expected to be volatile and strong in the short term. Pay attention to geopolitical changes [57]. 3.2.14 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate increased. The urea price is expected to enter a consolidation phase in the short term, with a possible further correction around the Spring Festival. - Investment advice: The urea price is expected to enter a consolidation phase in the short term. Consider low - buying the 05 contract after the relative valuation provides a safety margin [60]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The styrene inventory in East China ports increased. The styrene price may deviate from the industrial logic in the short term due to short - squeeze sentiment. - Investment advice: Shift from low - buying to cautious waiting for styrene. The far - end expectation game of pure benzene may not end [63]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The domestic PVC powder market price increased. The PVC export tax - rebate policy will be cancelled on April 1. The PVC price may be relatively strong in the short term, but the upward space may be limited. - Investment advice: The PVC price may be relatively strong in the short term, but the upward space may be limited [65]. 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The caustic soda price in Shandong decreased. The caustic soda market has high supply, weak demand, and high inventory. The near - month contract's rebound height is expected to be limited, while the far - month contract can be considered for light - position long - side layout on dips. - Investment advice: The near - month contract's rebound height is expected to be limited. The far - month contract can be considered for light - position long - side layout on dips [67].

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry | Asset Category | Rating | | --- | --- | | Gold | Oscillation | | US Dollar | Bearish | | US Stocks | Oscillation | | A-Shares | Oscillation | | Treasury Bonds | Oscillation | [28] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas markets face high geopolitical risks, with persistent concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve and the fiscal sustainability of developed economies. The risk aversion sentiment remains high, and the market is expected to maintain high volatility. The US and Japan's potential joint intervention in the foreign exchange market increases the downward pressure on the US dollar index, while the yen appreciates significantly [5]. - In the domestic market, although most of the economic data in December were below market expectations, the annual economic growth rate reached the 5% target. Policies such as investment and national subsidies at the beginning of the year are taking effect, and some domestic demand - related data have the potential for marginal improvement. The bond market remains under bearish pressure, while the stock market continues its slow - bull pattern but faces regulatory cooling in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Context Tracking - Geopolitical risks continue to ferment, including the sovereignty dispute over Greenland and concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve. The expansionary fiscal policy expectations in Japan challenge the country's fiscal discipline, leading to a rise in global sovereign bond yields [5]. - In the domestic market, the economic data in December were mostly disappointing, but the full - year economic growth target was achieved. Policies are being implemented, and there is potential for marginal improvement in domestic demand - related data [5]. 3.2 Global Overview of Major Asset Trends 3.2.1 Equity Market - Global stock markets fluctuated and adjusted this week, with mixed performance. In developed countries, the S&P 500 fell 0.35%, the German DAX fell 1.57%, and the Nikkei 225 fell 0.17%, while the South Korean KOSPI rose 3.08%. In emerging markets, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.84%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 0.36%, and the Brazilian IBOVESPA rose 8.53% [7][8]. - The performance of MSCI indices was differentiated, with emerging markets > frontier markets > global markets > developed markets [8]. 3.2.2 Currency Market - The US dollar index weakened rapidly, depreciating 1.88% to 97.5. The RMB exchange - rate index appreciated slightly, and the RMB against the US dollar continued to appreciate 0.07%. Most emerging - market currencies and developed - market currencies appreciated, such as the Mexican peso (1.44%), the Brazilian real (1.49%), the euro (1.95%), and the yen (1.49%) [9][10]. 3.2.3 Bond Market - The yields of ten - year government bonds in major developed countries rose significantly, mainly due to concerns about Japan's radical fiscal policy. The yield of US Treasury bonds remained unchanged at 4.24%, the yield of UK Treasury bonds rose 7bp, and the yield of Japanese Treasury bonds rose 6bp. In emerging - market countries, the yield of Chinese Treasury bonds fell 1bp to 1.83%, the yield of Indian Treasury bonds fell 1bp, and the yield of Brazilian Treasury bonds fell 12bp [15][16]. 3.2.4 Commodity Market - The global commodity market oscillated and rose this week, with energy and precious - metal prices leading the increase. WTI crude oil rose 3.48%, natural gas rose 17%, COMEX gold rose 8.3%, and silver rose 14.8%. In the domestic commodity market, most commodities rose, with precious metals > non - ferrous metals > energy and chemicals > industrial products > agricultural products > black metals [22][26]. 3.3 Weekly Outlook for Major Assets 3.3.1 Precious Metals - Gold is expected to oscillate. Geopolitical tensions drive funds into precious metals, but after a rapid rise, gold price volatility is expected to increase. It is recommended to wait for a pullback before making long - positions [28][30]. - The speculative net long - positions in Comex gold futures rebounded slightly, the holdings of SPDR Gold ETF increased slightly to 1,086 tons, and the positions of Shanghai gold futures rose to around 360,000 lots. The silver price showed a frothy trend, and attention should be paid to the risk of a market reversal [40]. 3.3.2 Foreign Exchange - The US dollar is bearish. Geopolitical risks are rising, and the process of de - dollarization is accelerating, leading to a short - term weakness in the US dollar [28][41]. 3.3.3 US Stocks - US stocks are expected to oscillate. Geopolitical conflicts still have the risk of fermentation. With the approaching of the January FOMC meeting and the earnings season of technology giants, market sentiment is expected to remain cautious, and the volatility of the US stock market may further increase [28][44]. 3.3.4 A - Shares - A - shares are expected to oscillate. The domestic stock market continues to face a pattern of differentiation. The core contradiction is between the bottom - up bull - market expectations and the top - down regulatory cooling. The regulatory authorities may take more strict and precise measures to limit excessive speculation, and the market may continue to oscillate at a high level [28][58]. 3.3.5 Treasury Bonds - Treasury bonds are expected to oscillate. The bond - market rebound may not be over, but the long - term bearish logic remains unchanged. The net financing of government bonds will decrease next week, and the market news will be calm, but risks such as an unexpected increase in the manufacturing PMI still need to be vigilant [28][61]. 3.4 Global Macroeconomic Data Tracking 3.4.1 Overseas High - Frequency Economic Data - The US economy remains resilient, with the GDPNow model estimating a Q4 growth rate of 5.4% and the red - book retail sales growing 5.5% year - on - year. The employment market also remains stable, with the number of continued unemployment claims falling to 1.849 million and the number of initial claims remaining at 200,000 [77]. - The liquidity in the US banking - system is expected to improve, the credit spread of high - yield corporate bonds is oscillating and falling, and the market's expectation of interest - rate cuts has changed little. The probability of a pause in interest - rate cuts in January has risen to 95.6%, and it is expected that there will be only 1 - 2 interest - rate cuts in 2026, more likely in the second half of the year [84]. - In December, the US CPI increased 2.7% year - on - year as expected, and the core CPI increased 2.6% year - on - year, the lowest level since March 2021 and lower than expected. The PPI rebounded to 3% in November, mainly driven by energy prices, and the core PCE increased 2.8% year - on - year in November, in line with market expectations [87]. 3.4.2 Domestic High - Frequency Economic Data - The real - estate market remains weak, with only a seasonal rebound in second - hand housing transactions. The market is still waiting and seeing, and the follow - up of new policies in Shanghai and Shenzhen is slow [93]. - As of January 23, the R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week were 1.54%, 1.49%, 1.40%, and 1.49% respectively, with slight changes from the previous weekend. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase this week was 8.57 trillion yuan, slightly less than last week, and the overnight trading volume accounted for 90.49%, slightly higher than the previous week [96]. - In December, the economic data showed a pattern of overall weakness, with supply stronger than demand and domestic demand weaker than external demand. The growth rate of industrial added value, exports, and service production increased, while the growth rate of social retail sales, fixed - asset investment, and real - estate investment decreased [97]. - In December, the financial data showed that the private sector, especially the household sector, had a low willingness to borrow actively. However, there were also some positive changes, such as an increase in short - term and medium - long - term loans of the enterprise sector, an increase in the issuance scale of enterprise bonds, and a slight increase in entrusted loans [102]. - In December, the PPI increased - 1.9% year - on - year, and the CPI increased 0.80% year - on - year, both showing a recovery trend. In the future, inflation is expected to continue to rise due to policy support and rising commodity prices [109]. - In December, the year - on - year growth rates of exports and imports exceeded expectations, with exports growing 6.6% and imports growing 5.7%. In the future, exports are expected to maintain their resilience, and imports are expected to recover moderately [115].

周度报告——光伏玻璃 政策刺激作用初显，光伏玻璃价格持稳运行 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2026 年 1 月 26 日 ★光伏玻璃基本面周度表现（截至 2026/1/23 当周）： 截至 1 月 23 日，国内光伏玻璃 2.0mm 镀膜（面板）主流价格 为 10.5 元/平方米，环比上周持平；3.2mm 镀膜主流价格为 16.5 元/平方米，亦环比上周持平。 上周国内光伏玻璃供应量保持稳定，无产线冷修或点火，厂家堵 窑量亦无新增。目前国内光伏玻璃在产产能 87210 吨/天，产能 利用率 66.31%。预计本周行业供给量继续保持稳定。 能 源 化 受益于光伏出口退税取消政策的利多刺激，光伏玻璃厂家出货情 况有所转好，但整体提振幅度偏小，一方面是因为上周大雪天气 影响了物流，另一方面是下游抢出口节奏力度明显偏弱，对光伏 玻璃消费端的提振效果不及预期。 工 上周光伏玻璃厂家继续去库，由于政策利好提振，光伏玻璃厂家 出货有所转好，库存继续下降。预计本周市场供给维持稳定，行 业存在继续降库预期。 上周光伏玻璃行业毛利率约为-19.04%，目前光伏玻璃市场再度 进入低价竞争阶段，行业亏损较为严重。 ★ 供需分 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The dollar index is expected to weaken in the short - term due to increased domestic conflicts over illegal immigration in the US [11][12]. - US stocks are expected to maintain high - level volatility during the earnings season, with increased volatility [16][17]. - Precious metals are likely to see increased short - term volatility, and investors should be aware of the risk of a pullback after a continuous sharp rise [20]. - The bond market is experiencing a short - term rebound, and it is more cost - effective to short after the upward momentum fades [21][22]. - The stock index long - position strategy should be continued [23][24]. - Coking coal is expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term as supply is at a high level and downstream restocking has ended [25][26]. - Steel prices are expected to be volatile before the Spring Festival, and it is recommended to hedge inventory at high prices if there is a price rebound [31]. - Palm oil is likely to be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short - term, and the price of soybean oil is expected to be supported before the US biofuel policy is released [35]. - The outlook for soybean meal exports is not optimistic, and the 5 - month contract is likely to be weak if there are no major abnormalities in South American production [37][38]. - The domestic sugar market is expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term due to seasonal supply pressure and limited demand [42]. - Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be adjusted in a volatile manner before the Spring Festival, with long - term bullish views unchanged [47]. - Copper prices are likely to be volatile in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and look for opportunities to go long at low prices in the medium - term [51]. - Lead prices are expected to be in low - level volatility, and it is recommended to wait and see both unilaterally and in arbitrage [53][54]. - Zinc prices are expected to remain in high - level volatility, and it is recommended to wait and see unilaterally, pay attention to long - position opportunities in the far - month contracts for arbitrage, and wait and see in the domestic - foreign arbitrage [57]. - Lithium carbonate prices are likely to be easy to rise and difficult to fall, and a bullish strategy is recommended with attention to position control and risk management [60][61]. - Tin prices are expected to be in wide - range volatility in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the implementation of supply recovery expectations and consumption recovery [65]. - Nickel prices are expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall, and it is recommended to look for opportunities to go long at low prices [66][67]. - EU carbon prices are expected to be strong in the short - term [68][69]. - Oil prices are expected to be supported by short - term geopolitical conflicts and supply disruptions [71][72]. - The bottle - chip market is expected to see a mild recovery in processing fees around the Spring Festival [76]. - The container shipping index is expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term [78]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Europe is estimated to need $1 trillion to restructure its defense industry. The shooting of a US citizen by ICE has intensified domestic conflicts over illegal immigration, causing the dollar index to weaken. The Trump administration is expected to maintain a tough stance on illegal immigration, and market volatility will remain high. The dollar index is expected to weaken in the short - term [9][11][12]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The final value of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in the US in January was 56.4, reaching a five - month high. The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in January was 51.9. The US economy shows resilience, and the Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates in the short - term. The market is worried about the Fed's independence, and US stocks are expected to maintain high - level volatility during the earnings season [13][14][16]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US is expected to obtain "sovereignty" over the area where the US military base on Greenland is located. The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in January was 51.9. The New York Federal Reserve Bank conducted a "rate check" on the US dollar/yen exchange rate. Precious metals continued to rise strongly on Friday, reaching a new high. The market is trading on the safe - haven and de - dollarization needs caused by the tense situation between the US and Europe. The sharp rise of the yen and the fall of the dollar after the US and Japan jointly signaled to intervene in the foreign exchange market boosted the precious metals. However, the short - term market is dominated by sentiment and funds, and the risk is increasing. Precious metals are likely to see increased short - term volatility, and investors should be aware of the risk of a pullback [18][19][20]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 125 billion yuan, with a net investment of 38.3 billion yuan. The bond market continued to strengthen, mainly due to the alleviation of previous concerns. However, there are still long - term negative factors, and it is more cost - effective to short after the upward momentum fades [21][22]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The CSRC issued a guidance on the performance comparison benchmark for public funds. Due to strong bullish expectations, funds flowed into small - cap stocks, causing market differentiation. The regulatory authorities are expected to take stricter and more precise measures to limit excessive speculation, and the market is likely to remain in high - level volatility. It is recommended to continue to hold the long - position strategy for the stock index [23][24]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal price in the Changzhi market remained stable. The supply in some areas increased slightly, while the downstream restocking ended, and the market sentiment declined. Coking coal is expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term [25][26]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The global crude steel output in 2025 was 1.849 billion tons. In mid - January 2026, the daily output of key steel enterprises decreased slightly, and the inventory increased. Before the Spring Festival, steel prices are expected to be volatile and may rebound slightly. It is recommended to hedge inventory at high prices if there is a price rebound [27][29][31]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The EU plans to gradually phase out soybean biofuels. The establishment of the Southeast Asian Sustainable Aviation Fuel Council. The actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills increased, and the estimated volume for the next week is higher. The palm oil market is supported by inventory reduction and Ramadan expectations, and the price of soybean oil is expected to be supported before the US biofuel policy is released [32][34][35]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The US weekly soybean export sales reached the highest level of the year. The domestic oil mill soybean crushing volume increased, and it is expected to remain high. The outlook for soybean meal exports is not optimistic, and the 5 - month contract is likely to be weak if there are no major abnormalities in South American production [36][37][38]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - The amount of sugar waiting to be shipped at Brazilian ports increased. The sugar production in the central and southern regions of Brazil decreased in the second half of December. The domestic sugar market is under seasonal supply pressure, and the demand is limited. It is expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term [39][41][42]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - The import of Indian cotton yarn decreased, while the import of polyester - cotton blended yarn increased. The EU's clothing import rebounded in November 2025, and the import from China increased. The US cotton export signing reached a new high, but the export progress is still behind. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be adjusted in a volatile manner before the Spring Festival, with long - term bullish views unchanged [43][44][47]. 3.2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Chilean contractor protests blocked access to mines. Tibet Julong Copper's second - phase project was put into operation. The Chilean Mining Association warned that it will take several years for copper supply to increase. The short - term macro factors support copper prices, but the fundamental factors may suppress price increases. Copper prices are likely to be volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and look for opportunities to go long at low prices in the medium - term [48][50][51]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead spread was at a discount. The production of primary lead was stable, the profit of secondary lead refineries narrowed, and the consumption of lead batteries was weak. The social inventory increased, and lead prices are expected to be in low - level volatility. It is recommended to wait and see both unilaterally and in arbitrage [52][53][54]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - A gold mine in Mexico was temporarily shut down. The LME zinc spread was at a discount, and MMG's zinc ore output in the fourth quarter of 2025 increased. The zinc concentrate port inventory increased, the smelting profit improved slightly, and the demand was affected by multiple factors. Zinc prices are expected to remain in high - level volatility. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally, pay attention to long - position opportunities in the far - month contracts for arbitrage, and wait and see in the domestic - foreign arbitrage [55][56][57]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The retail and wholesale volume of new - energy passenger vehicles in the first 18 days of January 2026 decreased year - on - year. Lithium carbonate prices rose sharply last week. The demand is strong, and the inventory is low. It is recommended to take a bullish strategy with attention to position control and risk management [58][60][61]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - The first domestic satellite computing power module was launched. The LME tin spread was at a discount, and the inventory increased. The import of tin concentrate in December increased year - on - year. The supply is expected to increase in 2026, but there are uncertainties. The demand is weak, and tin prices are expected to be in wide - range volatility in the short - term [62][63][65]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The port logistics of the Indonesian Qing Shan Industrial Park was suspected of monopoly. The nickel ore production quota in Indonesia is expected to be adjusted, and the global primary nickel gap is expected to be more than 100,000 metric tons. The raw material price rose, and the demand for nickel salt increased. Nickel prices are expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall, and it is recommended to look for opportunities to go long at low prices [66][67]. 3.2.13 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The closing price of the EUA main contract decreased. The EU carbon price remained high and volatile last week. The CoT data helped boost the market. The carbon price is expected to be strong in the short - term [68][69]. 3.2.14 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The production of a Kazakhstani oil field was delayed due to a power failure and export problems. The number of US oil rigs increased. The oil price rose on Friday, supported by the risk of supply disruptions and the increase in diesel cracking spreads [70][71][72]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotation of bottle - chip factories continued to rise. The polyester raw material price rose strongly, and the bottle - chip factory quotation increased. The market trading atmosphere was fair, and the downstream was cautious. The industry operating rate decreased, and the inventory pressure was transferred smoothly. The processing fee is expected to recover mildly around the Spring Festival [73][75][76]. 3.2.16 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - Wildfires and rough seas restricted the operation of some ports in Chile. The short - term market is weak, and the European - line futures are expected to be weakly volatile. Attention should be paid to whether the index will be higher due to container dumping and late ship departures [77][78].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no specific industry investment rating provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Based on technical indicator signal analysis of futures, different trends are shown in various sectors. In the precious metals sector, silver, platinum, and palladium show bearish signals, while gold remains volatile. In the non - ferrous sector, zinc, tin, lithium carbonate, and aluminum alloy are bullish, and Shanghai lead is bearish, with the rest being volatile. In the black and shipping sector, hot - rolled coils, wire rods, coking coal and coke, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon are bullish, and European line container shipping is volatile. In the energy and chemical sector, LPG is bullish, and many varieties in the chemical sector such as rubber series, ethylene glycol, methanol, and PTA are bullish. In the agricultural products sector, peanuts and logs are bullish, and sugar, eggs and other varieties are bearish. In the stock index futures, CSI 1000 is bullish, CSI 500 is volatile, and SSE 50 and CSI 300 are bearish. In the treasury bond futures, 2 - year treasury bonds are bullish, and 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds are mainly volatile [1][2]. Summary by Directory 1. Non - ferrous and Precious Metals Sector - Precious metals: Silver, platinum, and palladium show bearish signals, and gold shows a volatile signal. Non - ferrous metals: Zinc, tin, lithium carbonate, and aluminum alloy show bullish signals, Shanghai lead shows a bearish signal, and the rest of the varieties are mainly volatile [8][9]. - For Shanghai copper, it maintained high - level volatility this week. The weekly line is bullish, and the daily line shows a balance between bulls and bears. If it continues to rise at the beginning of next week and the MACD forms a golden cross, it is expected to break through; otherwise, continue to wait and see [11]. 2. Black and Shipping Sector - Hot - rolled coils, wire rods, coking coal and coke, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon show bullish signals, and the rest of the varieties are mainly volatile. European line container shipping shows a volatile signal [17][18]. - For rebar, it has been in a downward channel with a gradually rising center of gravity since October 2021. This week, it showed a "V" shape and is currently in low - level volatility. The MACD is expected to form a golden cross above the zero - axis, and the price may rebound within the range, but it does not form a strong trend [21]. 3. Energy and Chemical Sector - In the energy sector, LPG shows a bullish signal, and the rest of the varieties are volatile. In the chemical sector, rubber series, ethylene glycol, offset printing paper, methanol, PTA, p - xylene, PVC, propylene, pulp, staple fiber, and bottle chips show bullish signals, and the rest of the varieties are volatile [26][27]. - For PTA, the weekly line has broken through the adjustment center, with a long - position arrangement of moving averages and a golden cross in MACD, indicating short - term upward momentum. Pay attention to the pressure in the range of 5300 - 5500 yuan/ton [31]. 4. Agricultural Products Sector - Peanuts and logs show bullish signals, sugar, eggs, live pigs, and soybean meal show bearish signals, and the rest of the varieties are mainly volatile [38][39]. - For sugar, the weekly line is in a downward channel. Recently, it has been running along the lower edge of the channel, and the daily - line MACD shows a death cross. Be vigilant about the risk of decline [44]. 5. Stock Index Futures Sector - CSI 1000 futures show bullish signals, CSI 500 futures show volatile signals, and SSE 50 and CSI 300 futures show bearish signals [50][51]. - The weekly line of IC CSI 500 futures rose 5.45% this week, with a long - position arrangement of moving averages and the Bollinger Bands expanding. The daily line shows that the price continues to rise above the MA5, indicating that the upward momentum still exists [53][54]. 6. Treasury Bond Futures Sector - 2 - year treasury bond futures are mainly bullish, and 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures are mainly volatile [57][61]. - The T 10 - year treasury bond futures have a slightly elevated center of gravity this week. The daily line shows that the price has stood above the MA60 and MA120, and the MACD maintains a golden cross. The price is running near the upper track of the Bollinger Bands. It is expected to be volatile or slowly repair upwards. Pay attention to the support at 107.06 - 107.39 and the resistance at 108.5 - 108.7 [64].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week (January 19 - 23, 2026), the trading activity in the commodity options market slightly declined, with the average daily trading volume at 8.15 million lots and the average daily open interest at 8.62 million lots, showing a week - on - week change of - 8.60% and - 0.35% respectively. Investors are recommended to focus on potential market opportunities in actively traded varieties. [1][7] - The underlying assets of commodity options mainly rose this week. Some commodity options' implied volatility increased on a weekly basis. There were different expectations of market trends in different varieties based on volume PCR and open - interest PCR data. [2][17][18] Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Commodity Options Market Activity - The trading activity in the commodity options market slightly declined this week. The average daily trading volume was 8.15 million lots, and the average daily open interest was 8.62 million lots, with a week - on - week change of - 8.60% and - 0.35% respectively. - Actively traded varieties included silver (810,000 lots), styrene (660,000 lots), and PTA (440,000 lots). Five varieties had a trading volume increase of over 100%, with significant growth in p - xylene (+165%), log (+163%), and synthetic rubber (+154%). The varieties with a significant decline in trading volume were crude oil (-66%), soybean No. 2 (-51%), and staple fiber (-51%). - The varieties with high average daily open interest were soybean meal (600,000 lots), cotton (560,000 lots), and glass (500,000 lots). The varieties with a rapid week - on - week increase in open interest were tin (+65%), industrial silicon (+46%), and caustic soda (+43%). [1][7] 2. This Week's Main Data Review of Commodity Options 2.1. Underlying Asset Price Movements - The underlying assets of commodity options mainly rose this week. The varieties with high weekly increases included lithium carbonate (+24.16%), silver (+11.04%), and synthetic rubber (+9.44%); the varieties with high weekly declines included glass (-3.54%), live pigs (-3.46%), and caustic soda (-3.04%). [2][17] 2.2. Market Volatility - Some commodity options' implied volatility increased on a weekly basis. 49 varieties' current implied volatility was above the 50th percentile of the past year. The varieties with a large week - on - week increase in implied volatility included synthetic rubber (+22.91pct), gold (+8.63pct), and ethylene glycol (+8.34pct). The varieties with implied volatility at a historical high included synthetic rubber, styrene, nickel, and plastic, and investors were advised to beware of unilateral risks and focus on short - volatility opportunities. The varieties with implied volatility at a historical low included peanuts and rapeseed meal, where buying options were more cost - effective. [2][17] 2.3. Options Market Sentiment - Currently, the volume PCR of lithium carbonate and propylene is at a historical high, indicating a short - term concentrated bearish expectation in the market. The volume PCR of cotton, manganese silicon, ferrosilicon, and iron ore is at a one - year low, indicating a concentrated bullish expectation in the market. The open - interest PCR of silver and lithium carbonate is at a historical high, indicating a high level of bearish sentiment in the market. The open - interest PCR of ethylene glycol, soybean meal, caustic soda, and palm oil is at a one - year low, indicating an accumulation of bullish sentiment in the market. [2][18] 3. Key Data Overview of Major Varieties This chapter mainly presents the key data of major varieties, including trading volume, volatility, and options market sentiment indicators. More detailed data on various varieties can be found on the Dongzheng Finoview official website (https://www.finoview.com.cn/). [22] 3.1. Energy No specific data summary provided, but relevant charts and data sources are mentioned, including those related to trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and volume PCR of crude oil. [23][25][27] 3.2. Chemicals - **PTA**: Relevant charts and data sources are provided for trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and volume PCR. [28][29][35] - **Caustic Soda**: Similar to PTA, relevant charts and data sources for trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and volume PCR are presented. [37][38][39] - **Glass**: The same as above, with relevant charts and data sources for various indicators. [43][44][45] - **Soda Ash**: Relevant information on trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and volume PCR is provided. [49][50][52] 3.3. Precious Metals Relevant information on trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and volume PCR of silver is presented, along with data sources. [58][59][61] 3.4. Ferrous Metals - **Iron Ore**: Information on trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and volume PCR, as well as data sources, is provided. [66][68][70] - **Manganese Silicon**: Similar to iron ore, relevant information and data sources are given. [73][74][75] 3.5. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Information on trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and volume PCR, along with data sources, is presented. [81][84][85] - **Aluminum**: Similar to copper, relevant information and data sources are provided. [87][88][90] 3.6. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: Information on trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and volume PCR, along with data sources, is provided. [93][95][98] - **Palm Oil**: Similar to soybean meal, relevant information and data sources are given. [100][101][102] - **Cotton**: Information on trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and volume PCR, along with data sources, is presented. [108][109][111]