周度报告—工业硅/多晶硅 工业硅枯水期减产，多晶硅新一轮成交开始 [★Ta工bl业e_硅Summary] 本周新疆增开 1 台，云南减少 3 台，四川减少 2 台，内蒙古减 少 2 台，宁夏增加 1 台。北方大厂继续复工复产，南方个别硅 厂提前减产，预计 10 月底会有更明显的减量，预期云南开工 下降到 20 余台，四川开工下降至 35 台左右。SMM 工业硅社会 库存环比-0.3 万吨，样本工厂库存环比-0.03 万吨。多晶硅、有 机硅维持刚需采买，盘面下跌后，铝厂积极点货，华东华西地 区低品位工业硅货源紧俏、基差有所走强。更新平衡表后，预 计 11 月工业硅难以去库、12 月去库 1.5 万吨。 ★多晶硅 有 色 金 属 现货报价不变，实际成交方面，本周少量订单成交交付，新单 成交价格落在 52-53 元/千克，龙头一线厂家复投料价格维持 53 元/千克以上成交，低于该水平的价格不售。颗粒料价格 50- 51 元/千克。10 月多晶硅排产预计 13.8 万吨左右，考虑到枯水 期来临，龙头企业西南基地逐步减产，预计 11 月多晶硅排产 下降至 11.8 万吨。根据 SMM，截至 10 月 23 日，多晶硅企 ...

周度报告-黄金 资金获利了结，金价高位下挫 [走Ta势bl评e_级Ra：nk] 黄金：看跌 报告日期： 2025 年 10 月 26 日 ★投资建议： 短期金价缺乏上涨动力，需要注意回调风险，国际金价考察 4000 美元的支撑，沪金出现一定的抄底迹象，不过也未完全企稳。关 注中美贸易谈判进展，预计市场波动增加。 ★风险提示： 地缘政治风险缓和、美联储鹰派、流动性冲击，将引发黄金回调。 | 徐颖 | FRM | 宏观策略首席分析师 | | --- | --- | --- | | [Table_Analyser] 从业资格号： | | F3022608 | | 投资咨询号： | | Z0013609 | | Tel: | | 8621-63325888-1610 | | Email: | | ying.xu @orientfutures.com | [★Ta市bl场e_综Su述mm：ary] 伦敦金跌 3.3%至 4113 美元/盎司。10 年期美债收益率微降至 4%，通 胀预期 2.27%，实际利率微升至 1.73%，美元指数涨 0.53%至 98.9， 标普 500 指数上涨 1.92%，人民币震荡，沪金折价 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the alumina industry is "Oscillation" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The price of ores remains weak, and the supply of alumina stays at a high level. The alumina spot price declined last week, and the futures price is expected to show an oscillatory and weakening trend. Although supply cuts have begun, the situation of oversupply remains unchanged [1][2][14] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview - **Raw Materials**: Domestic ore prices remained stable last week. The含税 price of Shanxi 58/5 ore was 700 yuan/ton, Henan 58/5 was 658 yuan/ton, and Guizhou 60/6 was 596 yuan/ton. Challenges such as continuous rainfall, environmental inspections, and mine resource integration have limited domestic ore supply, increasing dependence on imports. The quote for Guinea resources is around CIF 72 dollars/ton, while downstream enterprises' procurement intention is at CIF 69 - 70 dollars/ton. There is no news of Shunda's resumption of production. Newly - arrived ores totaled 348.9 million tons, including 261.3 million tons from Guinea and 97.7 million tons from Australia. The reference price for the Cape ship market from Guinea to China is 24.5 dollars/ton [1][11] - **Alumina**: The spot price of alumina decreased last week. The ALD northern comprehensive price was 2800 - 2870 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton; the domestic weighted index was 2870 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton; the port price of imported alumina was 2820 - 2880 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton. The decline in the northern market slowed down, while that in the southern market expanded. The downstream's phased inquiry and purchase scale increased. There were two overseas spot transactions, which impacted the domestic market. The full cost of domestic alumina was 2877 yuan/ton, and the real - time profit was 76 yuan/ton. The operating capacity increased by 50 million tons to 9765 million tons, with an operating rate of 85.2% [2][12] - **Demand**: Domestic demand remained unchanged, and the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum will be stable in the next two months, with the current operating capacity at 4425.3 million tons. Overseas, the Nordural electrolytic aluminum plant in Iceland reduced production by 21.5 million tons due to electrical equipment failure, and the current operating capacity dropped to about 11 million tons. The latest overseas operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is 2955.1 million tons, a weekly decrease of 21.5 million tons [12] - **Inventory**: As of October 23, the national alumina inventory was 406.1 million tons, an increase of 4.4 million tons from last week. The inventory of large industrial chain groups was relatively stable, the inventory at the electrolytic aluminum end continued to rise, the bagged inventory at the alumina end increased slightly, the port inventory fluctuated temporarily, and the inventory in delivery warehouses, public warehouses, stations, and transit increased [13] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 221257 tons, a decrease of 5 tons from last week. The futures price of alumina continued to be weak. The price of Guinea ore in the fourth quarter is about 73 dollars, and the cash cost of alumina plants in Shanxi and Henan is 2900 - 3000 yuan/ton. Some alumina enterprises in these regions have started to incur losses, and supply cuts have begun, but the oversupply situation remains unchanged. The futures price is expected to show an oscillatory and weakening trend, and the downward space is being squeezed [14] 3.2 Weekly Summary of Key Events in the Industry Chain - The import profit of alumina has been narrowing. As of October 24, the Australian alumina quote was about 314 dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 dollars/ton from October 17. The estimated cost of reaching the northern ports in China is about 2865 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 5 yuan/ton. The import cost is basically the same as the domestic northern quote [15] - On October 24, a Yunnan electrolytic aluminum enterprise tendered to purchase 1 million tons of spot alumina at a delivered - to - plant price of 3060 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton from the previous tender on October 20 [15] - On October 23, a northwest aluminum plant tendered to purchase less than 1 million tons of spot alumina at a delivered - to - plant price of 3015 - 3020 yuan/ton, with a narrow fluctuation of about 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous tender on October 15 [15] 3.3 Monitoring of Key Data in the Upstream and Downstream of the Industry Chain 3.3.1 Raw Materials and Cost Side - Multiple charts are provided to show data such as the price of domestic and imported bauxite, domestic bauxite port inventory, port shipping volume of major bauxite - importing countries, sea - floating inventory of major bauxite - importing countries, domestic caustic soda price trend, domestic steam coal price trend, and alumina production costs in various provinces [16][19][22] 3.3.2 Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance - Multiple charts are presented to show data including domestic provincial alumina spot prices, imported alumina prices, domestic electrolytic aluminum spot prices, the futures price ratio of electrolytic aluminum to alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the weekly supply - demand balance of domestic alumina. A table also shows the historical data of alumina and electrolytic aluminum operating capacity and supply - demand differences from June to October 2025 [35][37][42] 3.3.3 Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Multiple charts are provided to show data such as the alumina inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants, the alumina inventory of alumina plants, domestic alumina yard/station/in - transit inventory, alumina port inventory, total domestic social alumina inventory, the quantity of alumina warehouse receipts and open interest on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the ratio of open interest to warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange [45][48][50]

周度报告——股指期货 四中全会提振科技产业预期 扫描二维码，微信关注"东证繁微"小程序 [★Ta一bl周e_复Su盘mm：a四ry]中全会提振科技预期 股 指 期 货 本周（10/20-10/24）以美元计价的全球股市收涨。MSCI 全球指 数涨 1.77%，其中新兴市场（+2.04%）>发达市场（+1.74%）> 前沿市场（+0.33%）。中国股市涨 3.95%领跑全球，瑞士股市跌 0.64%全球表现最差。中国权益资产大幅收涨，分市场看，A 股> 港股>中概股。A 股沪深京三市日均成交额 17975 亿元，环比上 周（21931 亿元)缩量 3956 亿元。A 股所有版块均上涨，其中创 业板指涨 8.05%表现最好，北证 50 涨幅 2.74%表现较差。本周 A 股中信一级行业中共 27 个上涨（上周 4 个），3 个下跌（上周 26 个）。领涨行业为通信（+11.56%），领跌行业为农林牧渔 （-1.59%）。利率方面，本周 10Y 国债收益率上行，1Y 上行， 利差收缩。ETF 资金流向方面，跟踪沪深 300 指数的 ETF 份额 本周减少 2.1 亿份，跟踪中证 500 的 ETF 份额减少 2.1 ...

周度报告-外汇期货 [★Ta本bl周e_全Su球mm市a场ry]概述 市场风险偏好反弹，股市多数上涨，债券收益率多数上行，美 债收益率微降至 4%。美元指数涨 0.5%至 98.9，非美货币多数贬 值，离岸人民币微涨 0.1%，欧元跌 0.23%，英镑跌 0.87%，日元 跌 1.49%，瑞郎跌 0.3%，韩元跌 1.2%，泰铢、比索、卢比收 跌，新西兰元、兰特、雷亚尔、澳元、加元收涨。金价跌 3.3% 至 4113 美元/盎司，VIX 指数降至 16.37，现货商品指数收跌， 布油大涨 9%至 66.5 美元/桶。 外 ★市场交易逻辑 d[Table_Title] 美国 CPI 不及预期，美元短期震荡 汇 期 货 美国政府延续停摆状态，政府关门对经济和就业市场的拖累开 始显现，经济数据的公布也受到影响，不确定性增加。美国劳 工部推迟公布的 9 月 CPI 数据略低于市场预期，CPI 同比从 2.9% 反弹至 3%，环比从 0.4%微降至 0.3%，核心 CPI 同比从 3.1%微 降至 3%，环比从 0.3%微降至 0.2%，由于政府关门 10 月 CPI 可 能无法按时公布，9 月通胀反弹主要受到能源成本 ...

周度报告-国债期货 多重因素扰动，债市暂略偏弱 [Table_Summary] ★一周复盘：国债期货震荡下跌 国 债 期 货 本周（10.20-10.26）国债期货震荡下跌。周一，受周五特朗普对 华表态示弱的影响，市场风险偏好有所改善，国债期货震荡下 跌。周二，上午有消息称特朗普计划明年初访华，股票市场表 现较强，债市震荡偏弱。午后受中小银行下调存款利率消息影 响，市场宽货币预期上升，国债期货震荡上涨。周三，国债期 货早盘冲高回落，午后降息预期一度上升，国债期货再度冲 高，但市场情绪随即回落，国债转而走弱。周四，上午国债期 货窄幅震荡，午后市场较为期待四中全会相关政策，股市拉 升，国债期货下跌。周五，中美贸易摩擦进一步缓和预期升 温，介绍二十届四中全会精神的新闻发布会重点提及了产业升 级、科技创新等工作，市场风险偏好上升，国债期货震荡下 跌。截至 10 月 24 日收盘，两年、五年、十年和三十年期国债期 货主力合约结算价分别为 102.334、105.615、108.015 和 115.030 元，分别较上周末变动-0.044、-0.160、-0.250 和-0.700 元。 ★多重因素扰动，债市暂略偏弱 展 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings were provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold is in a corrective phase, with potential for further downside but increasing interest from bottom - fishing funds. The market is awaiting the results of Sino - US negotiations and APEC meetings, as well as US CPI data [12]. - The stock market was boosted by expectations of incremental policies from the Fourth Plenary Session, but trading volume declined slightly. Industrial policies will remain the focus, and there is a need to strengthen domestic demand expansion [2]. - The decline in US banking reserves provides a basis for the Fed to stop shrinking its balance sheet, leading to an increase in market risk appetite and a volatile US dollar [16]. - Intel's improved financial results have boosted the technology sector, and Sino - US trade negotiations have increased market risk appetite. However, the negotiation process may be bumpy, and market volatility may remain high [22]. - The bond market may face short - term downward pressure, but the risk of continuous decline is low. After November, there is potential for the bond market to rise. Investors are advised to look for opportunities to buy on dips [25]. - The price of cotton is affected by factors such as new cotton listings, downstream orders, and Sino - US trade negotiations. The upside space is limited [30]. - Concerns about palm oil supply in Indonesia have led to a rebound in prices, and investors are advised to buy on dips [33]. - The pig market is expected to experience seasonal demand improvement, but the supply surplus will continue until the first quarter of next year. Investors are advised to look for short - selling opportunities in the near - term contracts [34]. - The price of red dates is in a volatile state, and investors are advised to wait and see, focusing on price negotiations and acquisition progress in the production areas [38]. - The price of thermal coal is expected to be strongly supported due to the approaching cold wave in the north [40]. - The price of iron ore is expected to remain weakly volatile, with a seasonal increase in supply and pressure on demand [41]. - The price of steel products is expected to be volatile, with inventory reduction alleviating concerns about oversupply but limited demand restricting the upside space [44]. - The price of copper is supported by short - term macro - sentiment improvement but limited by fundamentals in the short term. Investors are advised to buy on dips [49]. - The price of lead is expected to remain high and volatile. Investors can consider short - selling on rallies, as well as mid - term spread and cross - market arbitrage opportunities [53]. - The price of zinc is expected to be in a wide - range volatile state. Investors are advised to wait and see, and consider mid - term positive spread arbitrage opportunities [58]. - The price of nickel is expected to have upward potential. Investors can look for opportunities to buy on dips and consider option strategies [61]. - The price of lithium carbonate is supported by inventory reduction during the peak season, but further upward movement depends on supply - side disruptions. Short - term range trading is recommended, and attention should be paid to arbitrage opportunities [64]. - The price of liquefied petroleum gas is expected to remain volatile in the short term [67]. - The price of asphalt is expected to fluctuate greatly due to the game between geopolitical support for oil prices and weak fundamentals [68]. - The price of methanol is currently supported by cost and downstream factors, but the fundamentals have not improved. If the price rises further, there may be short - selling opportunities [72]. - The price of natural gas is in a bearish pattern, and the current rebound is expected to be short - lived. Investors are advised to wait and see [73]. - The supply - demand pattern of caustic soda is weak, but the large discount on the futures market and potential demand pulses from new alumina capacity may limit the downside. Short - selling should be cautious [76]. - The price of PVC is expected to remain in a low - level volatile state, with limited further downward space [78]. - The price of styrene has rebounded due to supply disruptions and rising oil prices. Attention should be paid to the negative feedback from downstream industries and the potential reduction of the pure benzene - oil price spread [80]. - The price of soda ash is supported by coal prices in the short term, but the upside is limited by new capacity. The downward space depends on coal price fluctuations and new capacity launches [82]. - The price of float glass has risen slightly due to coal - price - driven bullish sentiment, but the market is under pressure due to continuous inventory accumulation and weak demand [83]. 3. Summaries by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - News: Sino - US trade negotiations will be held in Malaysia from October 24 - 27 [12]. - Comment: Gold prices rebounded slightly but are still in a corrective phase. The market is awaiting negotiation results and APEC meetings, as well as US CPI data. - Investment Advice: Gold is expected to be in an oscillatory phase with potential for further downside. Observe the support at the $4000 level [12]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - News: US Senate Democrats blocked a Republican bill to pay military and federal employees during the government shutdown; US banking reserves decreased to $2.93 trillion; Trump plans to expand drug - fighting targets to land [13][14][15]. - Comment: The decrease in US banking reserves provides a basis for the Fed to stop shrinking its balance sheet, leading to increased market risk appetite and a volatile US dollar [16]. - Investment Advice: The US dollar index is expected to be volatile [17]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - News: Sino - US will hold trade talks in Malaysia from October 24 - 27; the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee released its communique [18][19]. - Comment: The stock market was boosted by policy expectations, but trading volume declined slightly. Industrial policies will be the focus, and domestic demand expansion needs to be strengthened [2]. - Investment Advice: Allocate evenly among stock indices [20]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - News: Sino - US will hold trade talks; Intel's Q3 revenue increased by 3% year - on - year, and it returned to profitability [22]. - Comment: Intel's results improved the technology sector, and Sino - US negotiations increased market risk appetite. However, the negotiation process may be bumpy, and market volatility may remain high [22]. - Investment Advice: The US stock market will be volatile in the short term due to Sino - US negotiation news but should be treated with a bullish outlook overall [23]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - News: The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee released its communique; the central bank conducted 7 - day reverse repurchase operations worth 212.5 billion yuan [24]. - Comment: The bond market may face short - term downward pressure, but the risk of continuous decline is low. After November, there is potential for the bond market to rise [25]. - Investment Advice: Look for opportunities to buy on dips [26]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - News: EU clothing import growth declined in August; CCI cotton procurement in India is accelerating; Xinjiang cotton purchase prices are rising [27][29][30]. - Comment: The price of cotton is affected by new cotton listings, downstream orders, and Sino - US trade negotiations. The upside space is limited [30]. - Investment Advice: The upside space of Zhengzhou cotton is limited. Monitor new cotton acquisitions, downstream orders, and Sino - US negotiations [31]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - News: The Indonesian military seized palm plantations, affecting 30% of the country's palm oil - growing area [32]. - Comment: Concerns about palm oil supply in Indonesia have led to a rebound in prices [33]. - Investment Advice: Buy on dips [33]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - News: Wens Co., Ltd. reported a net profit of 5.256 billion yuan in the first three quarters; Tangrenshen is implementing its production plan [33][34]. - Comment: Seasonal demand improvement may lead to a short - term rebound in pig prices, but the supply surplus will continue until the first quarter of next year [34]. - Investment Advice: Look for short - selling opportunities in the near - term contracts and continue to monitor the reverse spread strategy [35]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - News: The price of red dates in Hebei's Cui'erzhuang market is stable; Xinjiang red dates are in the drying stage, and the acquisition price will be determined in the next week [36][37]. - Comment: The price of red dates is in a volatile state, and the main trading logic is not clear [38]. - Investment Advice: Wait and see, and focus on price negotiations and acquisition progress in the production areas [39]. 3.2.5 Black Metals (Thermal Coal) - News: National railway coal shipments reached 1.553 billion tons from January to September [40]. - Comment: The price of thermal coal is expected to be strongly supported due to the approaching cold wave in the north [40]. - Investment Advice: The price of thermal coal is expected to be strongly supported [40]. 3.2.6 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - News: FMG's iron ore production in Q3 2025 was 50.8 million tons, with a 7% quarterly decline and a 6% annual increase [41]. - Comment: The price of iron ore is expected to remain weakly volatile, with a seasonal increase in supply and pressure on demand [41]. - Investment Advice: The price of iron ore is expected to remain weakly volatile and is relatively weak in the sector [41]. 3.2.7 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - News: China's rebar production in the first three quarters was 143.387 million tons; the inventory of five major steel products decreased by 2.741 million tons last week [42][43]. - Comment: The price of steel products is expected to be volatile, with inventory reduction alleviating concerns about oversupply but limited demand restricting the upside space [44]. - Investment Advice: Adopt a volatile trading strategy for steel prices [45]. 3.2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Alumina) - News: Century Aluminum's smelter in Iceland shut down temporarily due to a power equipment failure, affecting about 2 million tons of alumina demand annually [45]. - Comment: The overseas smelter shutdown has affected alumina demand, and the market is under pressure [45]. - Investment Advice: Wait and see [46]. 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - News: A French highway tested the "charging - while - driving" technology for electric vehicles; Vale plans to invest 70 billion reais to expand copper production [47][48]. - Comment: The price of copper is supported by short - term macro - sentiment improvement but limited by fundamentals in the short term [49]. - Investment Advice: Buy on dips [49]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - News: The number of car trade - in subsidy applications in 2025 exceeded 10 million; Qingyuan offers a 500 - yuan subsidy for electric bicycle trade - ins [50][51]. - Comment: The price of lead is expected to remain high and volatile. Investors can consider short - selling on rallies, as well as mid - term spread and cross - market arbitrage opportunities [53]. - Investment Advice: Short - sell on rallies, and consider mid - term spread and cross - market arbitrage opportunities [53]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - News: Boliden's Q3 2025 lead - zinc concentrate production increased; the number of car trade - in subsidy applications in 2025 exceeded 10 million [55][56]. - Comment: The price of zinc is expected to be in a wide - range volatile state. Investors are advised to wait and see, and consider mid - term positive spread arbitrage opportunities [58]. - Investment Advice: Wait and see, and consider mid - term positive spread arbitrage opportunities [58]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - News: Australia's Western Mines Group is conducting a general study on its Mulga Tank nickel project [59]. - Comment: The price of nickel is expected to have upward potential. Investors can look for opportunities to buy on dips and consider option strategies [61]. - Investment Advice: Look for opportunities to buy on dips and consider option strategies [61]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - News: Do - fluoride plans to ship 30GWh of lithium batteries in 2026; EVE Energy's power battery shipments in the first three quarters of 2025 were 34.59GWh [62][63]. - Comment: The price of lithium carbonate is supported by inventory reduction during the peak season, but further upward movement depends on supply - side disruptions. Short - term range trading is recommended, and attention should be paid to arbitrage opportunities [64]. - Investment Advice: Short - term range trading, and pay attention to arbitrage opportunities [64]. 3.2.14 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - News: China's weekly liquefied petroleum gas production decreased by 2.65% week - on - week; the inventory rate decreased by 0.39 percentage points [65][66]. - Comment: The price of liquefied petroleum gas is expected to remain volatile in the short term [67]. - Investment Advice: The price is expected to remain volatile in the short term [67]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - News: China's weekly asphalt production decreased by 110,000 tons week - on - week, a 2% decline [68]. - Comment: The price of asphalt is expected to fluctuate greatly due to the game between geopolitical support for oil prices and weak fundamentals [68]. - Investment Advice: Wait and see [69]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Methanol) - News: Iran's Kimiya methanol plant restarted [70]. - Comment: The price of methanol is currently supported by cost and downstream factors, but the fundamentals have not improved. If the price rises further, there may be short - selling opportunities [72]. - Investment Advice: Wait and see. If the price rises further, there may be short - selling opportunities [72]. 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Natural Gas) - News: US natural gas inventory increased by 87Bcf week - on - week [73]. - Comment: The price of natural gas is in a bearish pattern, and the current rebound is expected to be short - lived [73]. - Investment Advice: Wait and see [74]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - News: The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong decreased locally; the overall开工 load rate increased slightly [75]. - Comment: The supply - demand pattern of caustic soda is weak, but the large discount on the futures market and potential demand pulses from new alumina capacity may limit the downside. Short - selling should be cautious [76]. - Investment Advice: Short - selling should be cautious [76]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - News: The price of PVC in the domestic market was slightly volatile, and the overall开工 load rate decreased [77][78]. - Comment: The price of PVC is expected to remain in a low - level volatile state, with limited further downward space [78]. - Investment Advice: The price is expected to remain in a low - level volatile state, with limited further downward space [78]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - News: China's weekly styrene production decreased by 124,000 tons week - on - week, a 3.65% decline [79]. - Comment: The price of styrene has rebounded due to supply disruptions and rising oil prices. Attention should be paid to the negative feedback from downstream industries and the potential reduction of the pure benzene - oil price spread [80]. - Investment Advice: Monitor the negative feedback from downstream industries and the potential reduction of the pure benzene - oil price spread [80]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - News: The inventory of soda ash manufacturers decreased slightly on Thursday compared to Monday [81]. - Comment: The price of soda ash is supported by coal prices in the short term, but the upside is limited by new capacity. The downward space depends on coal price fluctuations and new capacity launches [82]. - Investment Advice: The downward space depends on coal price fluctuations and new capacity launches. Continue to monitor [82]. 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - News: The inventory of float glass manufacturers continued to increase, with a 3.64% week - on - week increase [83]. - Comment: The price of float glass has risen slightly due to coal - price - driven bullish sentiment, but the market is under pressure due to continuous inventory accumulation and weak demand [

日度报告——综合晨报 欧盟批准对俄罗斯新一轮制裁，巴西新年度 大豆产量继续增加 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-10-23 宏观策略（黄金） 欧盟批准对俄罗斯第 19 轮制裁 金价跌势放缓考察 20 日均线支撑，地缘政治风险的反复导致黄 金盘中波动加剧，欧盟批准对俄罗斯的新一轮制裁推动黄金小 幅反弹，但反弹空间有限，金价尚未企稳。 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 美国政府仍停摆，国际市场上重点关注巴西产区天气及中美关 系，预计内外盘期价暂时仍将维持震荡。 有色金属（铜） 南方铜业公司旗下 Tía María 铜矿项目获得批准 宏观因素短期复杂多变，且基本面因素短期对价格有阶段抑制， 预计铜价将继续高位宽幅震荡，策略上建议关注逢低买入机会。 特朗普称取消与普京在布达佩斯的会面 综 特朗普最新表态取消和普京的会面，表明目前俄乌冲突仍将持 续，短期市场风险偏好走低，美元指数震荡。 合 宏观策略（美国股指期货） 晨 美联储考虑将银行资本金要求从 19%降至最低 3% 报 市场风险偏好降低，三大股指均录得下跌，科技和周期板块跌 幅领先，市场转向避险交易。 农产品（豆粕） Abiove 预测巴西新年度大豆 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Expected to decline further, with prices entering a phase of long - short competition and increased market volatility [13][14] - US Dollar Index: Expected to strengthen [17][18] - US Stock Index Futures: Expected to improve risk appetite, but with continued high volatility, recommended to take a bullish approach and buy on dips [20] - Treasury Bonds: In the short - term, trading should be cautious. Later, opportunities to buy on dips for medium - term long positions can be sought [22][23] - Sugar: Expected to show weak oscillations, not recommended to short aggressively [28] - Soybean Meal: Expected to remain weak in the short term [30] - Steel: Recommended to approach prices with an oscillatory mindset [32][33] - Vegetable Oils: Recommended to wait for market drivers and take a short - term wait - and - see approach or hold light long positions [34] - Corn Starch: The price difference between rice and flour in contracts 01 and 03 is expected to have limited room for further narrowing [35] - Corn: Short - term recommended to wait and see, not advisable to short [37] - Red Dates: Recommended to wait and see, focus on price competition in production areas and downstream consumption [40] - Thermal Coal: Prices are expected to strengthen due to supply - demand resonance [41] - Iron Ore: Overall trend is expected to be weak, but short - term decline may not be smooth [42] - Polysilicon: Maintain the view that spot prices will not decline in October. Consider buying on dips when the futures price is at a discount to the spot price, and pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities for PS2511 - PS2512 [47] - Industrial Silicon: Buying on dips may be more cost - effective [49] - Lithium Carbonate: Short - term recommended for range trading, mid - term focus on short - selling opportunities after peak demand [51] - Lead: Unilateral trading should be observed with an oscillatory mindset, and mid - term positive arbitrage opportunities between domestic and foreign markets can be considered [53] - Zinc: Unilateral trading recommended to wait and see, focus on mid - term positive arbitrage opportunities, and maintain a positive arbitrage approach for domestic - foreign trading [56] - Crude Oil: Expected to show weak oscillations in the short term [61] - Carbon Emissions: CEA is expected to show weak oscillations in the short term [63] - Methanol: Recommended to wait and see [66] - Pulp: Expected limited upside space for the futures price [68] - Caustic Soda: Not recommended to short aggressively [70][71] - Styrene: The market will oscillate, and attention should be paid to the negative feedback from downstream products of pure benzene [74] - Container Freight Rates: Short - term recommended to approach the market with an oscillatory mindset, not advisable to buy on the rise [76] 2. Core Views - The formulation of a 12 - point peace plan for the Russia - Ukraine conflict by Europe and Ukraine has weakened short - term market risk - aversion sentiment, leading to a stronger US dollar index, but there are still uncertainties in the Russia - Ukraine situation [17] - The decline in gold prices is mainly due to the joint statement of European leaders on supporting a cease - fire in Russia - Ukraine, a softening of Trump's stance on tariffs, and the news of a possible visit to China, which has reduced risk - aversion demand. Gold prices are expected to continue to decline [13] - Multiple small and medium - sized banks have lowered deposit rates, and the bond market is expected to strengthen with oscillations after the implementation of the 14th Five - Year Plan policies [22] - The soybean meal market is trading on the expectation of improved Sino - US relations, and combined with weak supply - demand fundamentals, it is expected to remain weak [30] - Steel prices are oscillating, lacking a clear trend. Due to inventory pressure and average demand recovery, prices are expected to continue to oscillate weakly [32] - The polysilicon market has factors such as production cuts by leading enterprises and limited inventory pressure on non - leading enterprises. Spot prices are expected to remain stable [46] - The industrial silicon market has a clearer price floor due to cost factors, and buying on dips may be more cost - effective [49] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - European leaders' joint statement on supporting a cease - fire in Russia - Ukraine and Trump's related remarks have led to a more than 5% drop in gold prices. Gold prices are expected to continue to decline due to reduced risk - aversion demand and short - term over - rise [13] 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The 12 - point peace plan for the Russia - Ukraine conflict has weakened short - term market risk - aversion sentiment, causing the US dollar index to strengthen. However, there are uncertainties in the Russia - Ukraine situation, and the US dollar is expected to oscillate in the short term [17] 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Nvidia's discussion of providing loan guarantees for OpenAI has increased market concerns. With uncertainties in Sino - US negotiations and a cautious market before the earnings season, risk appetite has declined. The market is expected to improve but with high volatility [20] 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - Multiple small and medium - sized banks have lowered deposit rates, and the central bank has conducted reverse repurchase operations. The bond market is expected to strengthen with oscillations after the implementation of the 14th Five - Year Plan policies [22] 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - China's imports of syrup and sugar premix have decreased, Brazil's sugar exports in October have increased, and the price of gasoline in Brazil has been lowered. The domestic sugar market is expected to show weak oscillations [24][26][28] 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Argentina's soybean exports in September increased, and the US soybean export inspection volume increased week - on - week but decreased year - on - year. The soybean meal market is trading on the expectation of improved Sino - US relations and is expected to remain weak [29][30] 3.2.3 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The EU has made an anti - dumping final ruling on Chinese steel crawler tracks, and China's automobile exports in September have increased. Steel prices are oscillating, lacking a clear trend, and are expected to continue to oscillate weakly [31][32] 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Malaysia's palm oil production from October 1 - 20 increased. The oil market is oscillating, and it is recommended to wait for market drivers [34] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The theoretical profits of corn starch enterprises in different regions vary. The price difference between rice and flour in contracts 01 and 03 is expected to have limited room for further narrowing [35] 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Domestic corn prices are mainly rising, but the upward trend has slowed. Spot prices are expected to decline, while futures prices may enter an oscillatory bottom - building phase [36][37] 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - The price of red dates in the Hebei Cuierzhuang market has fluctuated slightly. The fundamentals have not changed significantly, and it is recommended to wait and see [40] 3.2.8 Black Metals (Thermal Coal) - The price of thermal coal in the northern port market is strong. Due to supply - demand resonance, prices are expected to strengthen [41] 3.2.9 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - BHP's iron ore production in the third quarter of 2025 decreased. Iron ore prices are oscillating weakly, and the overall trend is expected to be weak [42] 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - China's solar power generation in September increased. The polysilicon market has factors such as production cuts by leading enterprises and limited inventory pressure on non - leading enterprises. Spot prices are expected to remain stable [43][46] 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - Some polysilicon bases are shutting down, affecting the industrial silicon market. The price floor is clearer, and buying on dips may be more cost - effective [48][49] 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Sigma Lithium plans to increase lithium concentrate production. The inventory of lithium carbonate is decreasing, and prices are expected to be supported in the short term [50] 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead price is oscillating, and the domestic lead market has a short - term supply - demand mismatch. It is recommended to observe unilaterally and consider positive arbitrage between domestic and foreign markets [52][53] 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Silvercorp's zinc production in Q2 2025 decreased. The LME zinc price is rising, and the domestic zinc market has a stable supply - demand situation. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally and consider positive arbitrage [54][55] 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The US plans to purchase 100 million barrels of crude oil for strategic reserves, and API crude oil inventories have decreased. Oil prices are expected to show weak oscillations [57][60][61] 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA price in the carbon emissions market is oscillating weakly. The supply - demand structure is balanced and loose, and prices are expected to be lower than last year [62][63] 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Methanol) - China's methanol imports in September were high. Due to a temporary shutdown of an Iranian methanol plant, futures prices have rebounded, but it is recommended to wait and see [64][66] 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp is mostly stable, and the paper pulp futures price is relatively strong. However, due to poor supply - demand fundamentals, the upward space is limited [67][68] 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong is mostly stable. The supply is sufficient, and demand is stable. It is not recommended to short aggressively [69][71] 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - A new styrene plant has started production, and there are many maintenance rumors in the industry. The market is oscillating, and attention should be paid to downstream negative feedback [72][74] 3.2.21 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - HPL will increase freight rates from the Far East to multiple destinations. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is not recommended to buy on the rise [75][76]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a comprehensive overview of the global commodity ETF market, including its development history, market structure, user groups, and application scenarios. It also compares the Chinese and overseas commodity ETF markets, highlighting the gaps and potential for development in the Chinese market. Commodity ETFs have become a core financial tool for investors to gain exposure to commodity risks, driven by factors such as inflation hedging and portfolio diversification [1][2][3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity ETF Development History 3.1.1 Overseas Commodity ETF Development History - **Stage 1 (Late 1990s - Early 2000s)**: The development of commodity ETFs began in the late 20th to early 21st century. Early products used futures contracts as underlying assets, and precious metals became the breakthrough for early commodity ETFs. In 2003, Australia launched the Gold Bullion Securities (GBS), and in 2004, the US launched the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), the first large - scale and widely - adopted commodity ETF [13][14]. - **Stage 2 (2005 - 2010s)**: Commodity ETFs entered a period of rapid development with diversified product targets. The global financial crisis in 2008 led to an increase in the asset scale of gold ETFs and the diversification of commodity ETF structures, including the emergence of ETN [16][17]. - **Stage 3 (2015 - Present)**: The commodity ETF market has become more diversified. Theme - based commodity ETFs have developed rapidly, and there is a clear differentiation in investor preferences between institutional and retail investors [19]. 3.1.2 Chinese Commodity ETF Development History - **Stage 1 (2013 - 2014)**: China's commodity ETFs started late but developed rapidly. The first domestic gold ETF was launched in 2013, and several other gold ETFs were launched in 2014 [23]. - **Stage 2 (2019 - Present)**: The domestic commodity ETF market has become more diversified, covering non - precious metal sectors such as agricultural products, industrial metals, and energy [24]. 3.2 Commodity ETF Market Structure and Current Situation 3.2.1 Generalized and Narrow - Sense Commodity ETFs Generalized commodity ETFs include narrow - sense commodity ETFs (funds), commodity ETCs (physical collateral certificates), and commodity ETNs (unsecured bonds). Narrow - sense commodity ETFs can be further divided into physical, equity, and futures - based types [27]. 3.2.2 Market Scale The commodity ETF market has been growing in recent years, but its overall scale accounts for a relatively small proportion of the global ETF market. The market is highly concentrated regionally, with the US and Europe leading in terms of scale [37][40]. 3.2.3 Classification Scale Characteristics - **By Fund Type**: Narrow - sense commodity ETFs and commodity ETCs have seen stable growth in quantity and asset scale, while commodity ETNs have shown high volatility. The US is the main market for narrow - sense commodity ETFs and commodity ETNs, and Europe is the main market for commodity ETCs [42][50]. - **By Investment Target**: Asset allocation in generalized commodity ETFs is mainly concentrated in precious metals. In commodity ETNs, the composite index and energy play important roles [53][55]. 3.2.4 Concentration Characteristics and Top Products The asset scale of commodity ETFs is highly concentrated. Commodity ETCs and agricultural - themed generalized commodity ETFs have the highest concentration. The top 20 products are mainly precious - metal - based ETFs, showing concentration in fund type, asset target, and listing region [77][80][81]. 3.3 Commodity ETF User Groups and Application Scenarios 3.3.1 Investor Structure Overview Institutional investors' holding scale in the global generalized commodity ETF market has been growing steadily, while the holding ratio has remained relatively stable. Institutional investors prefer precious metals and composite index ETFs, narrow - sense commodity ETFs, and large - scale products. There are significant regional differences in investor structure [86][92][104]. 3.3.2 Investor Allocation Logic and Demand Scenarios - **Core Financial Tool**: Commodity ETFs are used for industry rotation investment, event - driven trading, theme investment, and earning roll - over returns [2]. - **Inflation Hedging**: Commodity ETFs are used to hedge inflation and are an important part of asset allocation during high - inflation periods [132][133]. - **Portfolio Diversification**: Commodity ETFs have low correlations with traditional financial assets, which can reduce portfolio volatility and enhance returns [145]. - **Currency Risk Hedging and Hedging**: Commodity ETFs can be used for currency risk hedging and hedging operations, especially suitable for small and medium - sized enterprises [149]. 3.4 Comparison of Chinese and Overseas Commodity ETFs The Chinese commodity ETF market has made great progress but still lags behind mature markets in terms of product coverage, strategy design, investor structure, and market liquidity. The Chinese market mainly consists of traditional passive products and a retail - dominated investor structure, with great potential for development [3].