宏观策略（股指期货） 国资委：央企要着眼开辟增长"第二曲线" 日度报告——综合晨报 美国政府结束部分停摆状态，股指盘中 V 型 反转 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2026-02-04 受消息面扰动，股指盘中 V 型反转。在宏观空窗期、且叠加贵 金属风波宣泄后，股市以题材、概念为主的结构牛模式再度回 归。 宏观策略（黄金） 美国政府结束部分停摆状态 综 合 黄金大幅反弹收复前日失地，市场恐慌式下跌阶段结束，在触 碰到 60 日均线后亦有抄底资金介入，短期金价步入震荡阶段。 美联储官员陆续发表讲话，米兰表示还需降 100bp。 晨 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 报 米兰称今年需降息逾一个百分点 美军击落伊朗无人机，地缘局势持续高温，市场风险偏好走低， 美元指数震荡。 农产品（豆油/菜油/棕榈油） 印度：1 月份棕榈油进口量激增 51% 印度 1 月棕榈油进口预计大幅增加，1 月马棕高频数据延续减产 预测 能源化工（原油） 美国 API 原油库存大幅下降 油价反弹，美伊摩擦事件导致风险溢价略回升。 航运指数（集装箱运价） 吉大港彻底停摆 弱现实与地缘扰动因素交织，预计短期 04 合约波动幅度仍将较 大建 ...

日度报告——综合晨报 美国制造业 PMI 超预期，沪指险守 4000 点 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2026-02-03 宏观策略（黄金） 美联储博斯蒂克：预计 2026 年不会降息 金价周一延续跌势，白银跌停，市场继续消化沃什被提名为美 联储主席带来的利空，同时交易所上调保证金比例也在给市场 降温，日内黄金价格一度触碰 60 日均线，而后出现反弹。 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 美国 1 月 ISM 制造业 PMI 创 2022 年 2 月以来最快 美国制造业 PMI 超预期，诗词风险偏好回升，美元指数走强。 综 宏观策略（股指期货） 合 A 股剧烈调整，沪指险守 4000 点 晨 报 除贵金属板块外，顺周期原材料分列跌幅榜前几名，而上述板 块同属"通胀上行、大宗涨价、经济修复"这一逻辑串起来的 一致性交易。逻辑松动后，上述板块全部大跌，拖累股市。 农产品（豆油/菜油/棕榈油） ITS：1 月 1-31 日棕榈油出口量环比增加 17.93% 1 月马棕出口数据增长，印尼 2025 年棕榈油出口同比大幅增长 有色金属（铅） 铅锭五地社会较 1 月 29 日增加约 600 吨 油价下跌，伊朗与美国 ...

周度报告——光伏玻璃 库存继续高位去化，但短期光伏玻璃价格难涨 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2026 年 2 月 2 日 ★光伏玻璃基本面周度表现（截至 2026/1/30 当周）： 截至 1 月 30 日，国内光伏玻璃 2.0mm 镀膜（面板）主流价格 为 10.5 元/平方米，环比上周持平；3.2mm 镀膜主流价格为 16.5 元/平方米，亦环比上周持平。 上周国内光伏玻璃供给量小幅下滑，有一座窑炉冷修，涉及产能 250 吨/天。目前光伏玻璃在产产能降至 86960 吨/天，产能利用 率为 66.12%。预计本周光伏玻璃产线无变化。 能 源 化 工 上周虽然光伏玻璃厂家出货加速，但多以春节备货为主。1 月份 为传统需求淡季，虽有光伏出口退税取消政策影响，但由于 2025 年三季度市场已经提前消费部分预期导致下游组件厂家抢出口 情绪不高，排产增量不大。展望二月份，虽然抢出口的影响依然 存在，但由于银价高涨、春节物流成本和人工成本增加等原因， 二月份组件排产不高。 上周光伏玻璃厂家继续去库，在光伏出口退税取消政策的影响 下，需求量有所提升，一方面是下游抢出口，另一方面是随着春 节临近，下游加大光伏玻璃 ...

全球宏观及大类资产配置周报 东证衍生品研究院 宏观策略组 2026年2月2日 上海东证期货有限公司 目录 一、宏观脉络追踪 二、全球大类资产走势一览 三、大类资产周度展望 ——贵金属、外汇、美股、A股、国债 四、全球宏观经济数据跟踪 一、宏观脉络追踪 宏观脉络追踪 | | 截至2026/01/30 | 近三个月走势 | 近一周涨跌幅 | 当月涨跌幅 | 年初至今涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 发达国家 | 标普500 | | 0.34% | 1.37% | 1.37% | | | 德国DAX | | -1.45% | 0.20% | 0.20% | | | 日经225 | | -0.97% | 5.93% | 5.93% | | | 英国富时100 | | 0.79% | 2.94% | 2.94% | | | 法国CAC40指数 | | -0.20% | -0.28% | -0.28% | | | 韩国KOSPI综合指数 | | 4.70% | 23.97% | 23.97% | | | 加拿大标普/TSX指数 | | -3.69% | 0.66% ...

日度报告——综合晨报 特朗普提名沃什出任美联储主席，贵金属剧 烈波动 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2026-02-02 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 特朗普称希望与伊朗"能够达成协议" 特朗普对于伊朗的态度暗昧不清，市场地缘风险短期回落，市 场风险偏好走低。 宏观策略（国债期货） 中国 1 月官方制造业 PMI 不及预期 PMI 虽不及预期，但潜在利空因素仍然较多，后续市场震荡转 弱的概率较高。 综 宏观策略（黄金） 合 唐纳德•特朗普提名凯文•沃什出任美联储主席 晨 报 周五贵金属剧烈波动，黄金大跌白银暴跌，特朗普提名凯文沃 什为下任美联储主席，由于其鹰派的历史，市场预期后续货币 政策将采取降息+缩表的模式，短期流动性释放预期下降。 农产品（棉花） 截至 1 月 22 日当周，25/26 年度美棉周度签约量环比同比大降 至 4.62 万吨，但装运有所提速。25/26 美棉出口签约进度仍落后， 后续出口情况仍需持续跟踪。 能源化工（原油） 欧佩克+原则上同意三月份继续暂停原定增产计划 油价略偏强，中东地缘冲突风险支撑油价。 航运指数（集装箱运价） 2025 年完成港口货物吞吐量 183.4 亿吨 ...

周度报告——股指期货 大宗压力显现，股指高位巨震 | | | [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] 股指：震荡 报告日期： 2026 年 2 月 1 日 [★Ta一bl周e_复Su盘mm：a贵ry]金属冲高回落，题材股连续回调 股 指 期 货 本周（01/26-01/30）以美元计价的全球股市收涨。MSCI 全球指 数涨 0.65%，其中新兴市场（+1.80%）>发达市场（+0.50%）> 前沿市场（-0.13%）。韩国股市涨 8.0%跑赢全球，加拿大股市 跌 2.03%全球表现最差。中国权益资产下跌，分市场看，港股>A 股>中概股。A 股沪深京三市日均成交额 30636 亿元，环比上周 （27991 亿元)缩量 2644 亿元。A 股宽基指数多数下跌，其中上 证 50 指数涨 1.13%表现最好，北证 50 指数跌 3.59%表现较弱。 本周 A 股中信一级行业中共 10 个上涨（上周 20 个），20 个下 跌（上周 10 个）。涨幅最大的行业为石油石化（+6.92%），跌 幅最大的行业为国防军工（-7.60%）。利率方面，本周 10Y 国债 收益率下行，1Y 上行，利差缩小。ETF 资金流向方面，跟踪沪 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "Shock" rating for lithium carbonate [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The high - level adjustment of the market and the implementation of the energy storage capacity price mechanism. The price of lithium carbonate is expected to be more likely to rise than fall due to demand support and mining end disturbances. It is advisable to take a bullish approach and look for opportunities to go long at low levels after the trading volume and volatility stabilize [1][2] - The introduction of the national - level policy on the grid - side independent new - type energy storage capacity price mechanism is favorable for the energy storage yield and installed capacity, and may increase the tolerance of energy storage for lithium carbonate prices. However, the rise in lithium carbonate prices may put pressure on the power end [2][14] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1.盘面高位调整，储能容量电价机制落地 - This week (1/23 - 1/30), lithium salt prices dropped significantly. The closing price of LC2605 decreased by 18.4% to 148,200 yuan/ton. The spot average prices of SMM battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 6.1% and 6.3% to 160,500 and 157,000 yuan/ton respectively. The price of lithium hydroxide also fluctuated accordingly [11] - On the supply side, Sigma Lithium's mining restart is on schedule, expected to be completed in January 2026. From late January to February, some lithium salt plants have annual maintenance plans. SMM predicts that the lithium carbonate output in February will be 81,930 tons, a 16% month - on - month decrease [1][12] - On the demand side, the downstream cell production schedule in February decreased month - on - month. In February, the lithium battery production schedule was 172GWh, a 12% month - on - month decrease. Among them, lithium iron phosphate was 139GWh, a 10% month - on - month decrease; ternary was 26.5GWh, a 15% month - on - month decrease; power was 105GWh, a 12% month - on - month decrease; energy storage was 57GWh, a 9% month - on - month decrease [1][12] - This week, the total inventory of the SMM lithium carbonate sample decreased by 1,414 tons month - on - month. It is expected that lithium carbonate will continue to reduce inventory in February. Currently, the upstream inventory is only 5 days, the mid - stream inventory has decreased to 12.7 days, and the downstream inventory has increased to 10.8 days [1][12] - After the sharp drop in the market on Friday, there were many limit - down orders. The pre - holiday stockpiling demand was largely released, and it is expected that the pre - holiday stockpiling demand will moderately weaken [1][12] - On January 30, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Energy Bureau issued a notice to establish a grid - side independent new - type energy storage capacity price mechanism, which will be promoted nationwide. It is estimated that a capacity price of 165 yuan/kilowatt can increase the energy storage IRR by 4 - 5pct, and energy storage demand may be more optimistic [2][13][14] 3.2.周内行业要闻回顾 - The lithium carbonate futures and options of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange will introduce overseas traders, which helps the industry chain enterprises manage risks and promotes the pricing model to shift to the "Chinese price" [16] - India plans to introduce incentives to encourage enterprises to build lithium - nickel processing plants [17] - The rise in lithium prices has brought potential opportunities for Develop's Pioneer Dome project, and the company is evaluating various development plans [17] 3.3.产业链重点高频数据监测 3.3.1.资源端：锂精矿价格随盘面波动 - Lithium concentrate prices fluctuate with the market [19] 3.3.2.锂盐：盘面高位回落，基差波动较大 - The lithium salt market has fallen from a high level, and the basis has fluctuated greatly [22] 3.3.3.下游中间品：成本驱动下游价格上涨 - The prices of downstream intermediate products are rising driven by costs [47] 3.3.4.终端：关注产业链负反馈情况 - Attention should be paid to the negative feedback of the industrial chain at the terminal [58]

金工策略周报 东证衍生品研究院金工首席分析师：李晓辉（商品CTA、商品指数） 从业资格号： F03120233 投资咨询号： Z0019676 东证衍生品研究院金工高级分析师：徐凡（国债期货、基本面量化） 从业资格号： F03107676 投资咨询号： Z0022032 （一）国债期货量化策略 东证衍生品研究院金工高级分析师：徐凡（国债期货、基本面量化） 从业资格号： F03107676 交易咨询号： Z0022032 ★国债期货行情简评： Ø ★国债期货日频择时策略： ★风险提示： 量化模型基于历史数据构建，市场环境变化或导致模型信号失效。 Ø 上周各期债表现分化，30年期主力合约收跌-0.33%，十年期主力合约涨0.11%，五年期主力合约 涨0.01%，两年期主力合约收跌-0.02% Ø 上周各品种基差分化，十债CTD券为250018，30号基差收于0.05元左右，与历史平均水平持平； 三十年期CTD券为210005，30号基差收于0.27元，高于历史基差的平均水平。 Ø 期债受到金银铜等商品的影响较小，上周表现震荡偏弱。随着1月的经济数据逐渐公布，预计通胀 等数据不弱，同时市场对春节和两会的股市上涨有所 ...

周度报告-黄金 特朗普提名美联储新任主席，黄金重挫 | [走Ta势bl评e_级Ra：nk] | 黄金：看跌 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2026 年 | 2 | 月 | 1 日 | [★Ta市bl场e_综Su述mm：ary] 伦敦金跌 1.9%至 4894 美元/盎司。10 年期美债收益率升至 4.24%， 通胀预期 2.34%，实际利率微升至 1.93%，美元指数跌 0.62%至 96.99， 标普 500 指数涨 0.34%，人民币弱势震荡，沪金溢价扩大。 贵 金 属 贵金属剧烈波动，伊朗局势反反复复，特朗普施压伊朗并警告可 能严重袭击，避险情绪推动资金涌入贵金属，叠加日元升值美元 指数大跌，黄金大涨至 5600 美元/盎司再创历史新高，期权隐含 波动率上涨至 40%以上，市场做多情绪发挥到极致。但随后利空 开始发酵，美联储 1 月利率会议如期按兵不动，会议声明显示就 业市场逐渐企稳，通胀仍然面临上行风险，短期美联储降息意愿 下降，鲍威尔讲话也没有给到更多鸽派信号，本次会议偏空。美 国财长表示一直奉行强势美元政策，否认将干预日元汇率， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "oscillating" [5] 2. Core View of the Report - The market risk appetite is fluctuating, with most stock markets rising and most bond yields rebounding. The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair has significant impacts on the market. His policy preference of rate - cuts plus balance - sheet reduction has suppressed market risk appetite, but in the long - term, it is positive for the US stocks. The short - term market is highly volatile, and asset prices are expected to oscillate in the next few months [1][2][10][11][32] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Global Market Overview This Week - Market risk appetite is wavering. Most stock markets are up, and most bond yields are rising, with the US Treasury yield reaching 4.24%. The US dollar index drops 0.62% to 96.99, and most non - US currencies appreciate. Gold prices fall 1.9% to $4894 per ounce, the VIX index rises to 17.4, the spot commodity index closes up, and Brent crude oil rises 6.8% to $72.7 per barrel [1][5][9] 3.2 Market Trading Logic and Asset Performance 3.2.1 Stock Market - Global stock markets mostly rise, with the S&P 500 up 0.34% and the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.44%. The Fed's January interest - rate meeting keeps rates unchanged. Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair suppresses market risk appetite, but in the long - run, it is positive for US stocks. The US government's partial shutdown has little overall impact. The domestic stock market is more volatile, and it is expected to be weakly oscillating [10][11][13] 3.2.2 Bond Market - Most global bond yields slightly decline, while the US Treasury yield rises to 4.24%. Warsh's policy preference may steepen the US Treasury yield curve, but the government shutdown causes the yield to fall. After the shutdown ends, the yield is expected to rise. The weakening of the US dollar index eases the pressure on emerging - market bond markets. The 10 - year Chinese Treasury yield oscillates slightly down to 1.81%, and the bond market is expected to be slightly strong in the short - term [14][18][21] 3.2.3 Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index drops 0.62% to 96.99, and most non - US currencies appreciate. The offshore RMB falls 0.13%, while the euro, pound, yen, and Swiss franc rise, and some other currencies also have different performances [24][26] 3.2.4 Commodity Market - Gold falls 1.9% to $4894 per ounce, and there is still short - term downward space. Brent crude oil rises 6.8% to $72.7 per barrel. The commodity spot index closes up, but commodities are under short - term pressure [27][29] 3.3 Hot - spot Tracking - The nomination of Warsh as Fed Chair causes the US dollar to strengthen in the short - term. The market may have over - interpreted his impact on monetary policy. In practice, the main policy orientation is likely to be rate - cuts, and asset prices are expected to oscillate in the next few months [3][32] 3.4 Next Week's Important Event Reminder - Monday: US January ISM Manufacturing PMI - Tuesday: Reserve Bank of Australia interest - rate meeting decision; US December JOLTs job openings - Wednesday: US Treasury quarterly refunding announcement; US ISM Non - Manufacturing PMI - Thursday: Bank of England interest - rate meeting decision; ECB interest - rate meeting decision - Friday: US January non - farm payrolls report [33]