调研报告—铝合金 、smingfTable_Title] 华东再生铝调研： 废料紧缺给予强支撑，仓单或为博弈核心 | | | 报告日期： 2025 年 7 月 22 日 [Table_Summary] ★关键调研结论及分析 废铝采购较为紧张，主要受制于以下三点：a）进口受限：美国 "232"调查豁免废铝关税，精废价差快速扩大，美国虹吸全球 废铝资源。此外，马来堵港、泰国环境污染等因素导致市场加剧 失衡格局。b）国内废铝增量有限，但需求扩增：部分铝板带箔 厂为降本逐渐提升废铝比例，而近两年废铝报废高峰尚未来临。 c）结构上部分大厂仅采购大型带票回收商：因废铝回收端市场 集中度较低，废铝市场对买方存在信息不对称壁垒，部分大厂为 规避采购风险仅接受大型带票打包厂货源，造成可采范围较小。 开工情况：调研企业开工率高于行业平均（行业平均低于 50%）， 具备 50-60%以上的铝液直供比例，最长铝液直供运输可达 300km。其中 ADC12 生产占比差异较大，范围在产量的 20-50% 左右。销售方面，企业下游订单均以长协为主，普遍有账期。 成本：税负方面，江苏及上海的企业综合税负预计高出安徽 2 个百分点，但部分企业 ...

重点集装箱港口及关键枢纽监测20250722 东证衍生品研究院 黑色与航运部 兰淅 从业资格号：F03086543 投资咨询号：Z0016590 数据点评 • 亚洲港口： 洋山港、外高桥远洋型集装箱船周均等泊时间/在泊时间分别为23.5小时/24.4小时、32.7小时/18.1小时，最新在锚/在泊集装 箱船数量达到18艘/29艘、25艘/29艘；宁波港远洋型集装箱船周均等泊时间/在泊时间为12.5时/24.0小时，最新在锚/在泊集装箱船数量 为13艘/33艘。青岛远洋型集装箱船周均等泊时间/在泊时间为25.5小时/23.0小时；新加坡港远洋型集装箱船周均等泊时间/在泊时间为 1.5小时/29.8小时，最新在锚/在泊集装箱船数量为3艘/50艘，巴生港周均等泊时间/在泊时间为12.1时/27.7小时，最新在锚/在泊集装箱 船数量为8艘/22艘。台风季和出口旺季叠加下，国内港口运营将持续承压。洋山平均周转时长约1.9天、宁波港约1.5天、盐田港约1.3天。 华南地区受台风影响港口大面积关停，华东地区持续受大风天气影响，短期港口拥堵面临恶化风险。巴生港拥堵环比改善，但仍处于高位； 随着中转需求增加，东南亚港口拥堵或持 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Trade policy uncertainty is rising in the short - term, with the dollar index expected to decline; the stock market is in a capital - driven market with abundant liquidity, and the bond market will remain volatile until substantial bullish factors such as interest rate cuts materialize [15][18][21]. - In the commodity market, different products have different trends. For example, power coal prices are expected to remain high in the short - term but face seasonal pressure after August; the price of some metals and energy - chemical products is affected by supply - demand, policies, and other factors [3][41]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US Treasury Secretary said trade negotiations are progressing steadily. Gold prices have risen strongly, and the short - term trend is volatile, facing a directional choice [11][12]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - Dollar Index) - The US Republican accused the Fed Chairman of perjury, and the White House said Trump may issue more tariff letters before August 1. The dollar index is expected to decline in the short - term [13][15][16]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The 7 - month LPR remained unchanged, and the State Council announced the "Housing Rental Regulations". It is recommended to allocate various stock indexes evenly [17][18][19]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project started, and the central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation. Before interest rate cuts and other substantial bullish factors, the bond market will remain volatile. It is recommended to sell long positions when the futures rebound and continue to allocate medium - term long positions at low prices [20][21]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills is approaching 1 million tons, and the excellent rate of US soybeans has slightly decreased. The short - term futures price is expected to be volatile [22][23]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The export of Malaysian palm oil decreased from July 1 - 20, while the production increased. It is not recommended to over - short palm oil. Wait for the price to fall and then consider long positions [24][25][28]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - The import of syrup and premixed powder decreased in June, and the net short position of ICE raw sugar decreased. The short - term Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to the resistance level of 5900 [29][30][32]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The daily output of Indonesia's Dexin Steel exceeded 20,000 tons, and the investment in water conservancy construction increased in the first half of the year. Steel prices are strong in the short - term, but risks should be vigilant after August [33][34][36]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The export of corn starch decreased significantly in June. Starch enterprises are expected to continue to operate at a loss or with low profits, and the opening rate is expected to remain low [37]. 3.2.6 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal market in Wuhai is strong. The short - term coking coal futures price is expected to be volatile, waiting for changes in the supply side [38][39]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The auction volume of imported corn decreased on July 22. It is recommended to hold a small number of short positions in new - crop corn and look for opportunities to add positions on rebounds [40]. 3.2.8 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The social electricity consumption increased by 5.4% in June. The steam coal price is expected to remain high in the short - term, but seasonal pressure should be noted after August [41][42]. 3.2.9 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The investment in water conservancy construction increased in the first half of the year. The long - term upward pressure on iron ore prices is limited, and short - term fluctuations may intensify [43][44]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The export of Chinese photovoltaic modules decreased in June. It is recommended to go long at low prices, and the price is expected to run at a low level within the price limit [45][46][47]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The export of industrial silicon increased in June. The short - term industrial silicon is expected to be strong, and attention should be paid to the resumption of production of large factories in Xinjiang [48][49]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - The import of copper ore, scrap copper, and refined copper changed in June. The copper price is expected to be volatile and strong, and it is recommended to wait and see [50][52][54]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Lifezone released a feasibility study report on its nickel project. The short - term nickel price may be strong, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities in the medium - term [55][56][57]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The import of lithium carbonate and lithium spodumene decreased in June, and Yichun Yinli will conduct maintenance. It is recommended to stop profiting from long positions and consider reverse arbitrage [58][60][62]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead spread was at a discount on July 18, and the export of lead - acid batteries decreased in June. It is recommended to buy at low prices in the short - term [63][64][65]. 3.2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The export of die - cast zinc alloy and galvanized sheets increased, and the import of zinc concentrate increased in the first half of the year. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and pay attention to positive arbitrage opportunities in the near - month spread [66][67][69]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The FOB price of Middle - East frozen LPG decreased. The fundamentals are weak, and there is insufficient upward driving force [70][71][72]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Turkey will terminate the Iraq oil pipeline agreement in July 2026. The short - term crude oil price is expected to fluctuate within a range [73][74]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong decreased locally on July 21. It is difficult for the caustic soda price to continue rising [75][77][78]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp increased. The upward space of the pulp price is limited due to unchanged supply - demand [79][80]. 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The price of PVC powder increased. The PVC price may have limited upward movement due to inventory accumulation [81]. 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Asphalt) - The inventory of asphalt refineries decreased. It is recommended to wait and see as the asphalt price needs oil price as a driving force [82][83]. 3.2.23 Energy and Chemicals (PX) - The PX price increased slightly on July 21. The short - term PX price is expected to be volatile and strong [84]. 3.2.24 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - The spot basis of PTA decreased significantly. The PTA price may be strong in the short - term following the domestic commodity market [85][86]. 3.2.25 Energy and Chemicals (Urea) - The export of urea increased in June. The urea price may be slightly strong, oscillating around 1700 [87][88]. 3.2.26 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - The port inventory of styrene increased. The short - term styrene price is affected by macro factors, and the pure benzene price is expected to oscillate and repair [89][90]. 3.2.27 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotation of bottle chip factories increased slightly. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to expand the processing fee of bottle chips by going long at low prices [90][91]. 3.2.28 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The inventory of soda ash manufacturers decreased. It is risky to short - sell in the short - term, and wait for policy guidance [92][93]. 3.2.29 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in Hubei increased on July 21. It is recommended to consider the cross - variety arbitrage strategy of going long on glass and short on soda ash [94].

日度报告——综合晨报 美财长对日谈判释放良好信号，四部门规范 新能源车竞争秩序 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-07-21 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 美财长劝说特朗普：别动美联储主席！ 综 当前股市情绪火热，尽管有基本面走弱的压力，但市场依旧以 快速轮动的方式寻找低估板块并快速将之拉高。在无更多宏观 利空下，市场易涨难跌。 合 宏观策略（黄金） 晨 美国财长对日美谈判释放良好信号 报 周五金价震荡收涨，市场关注美国对外关税谈判进展，美国财 长对日美谈判表态乐观，近期对中美谈判也释放积极信号，市 场风险偏好维持高位，导致黄金难以突破上涨。 有色金属（多晶硅） 东方希望关于抵制多晶硅行业网络不实信息的声明 逢低做多或更具备安全边际，关注企业套保意愿。 航运指数（集装箱运价） 贝森特劝说特朗普不要替换鲍威尔，因此预计美联储主席风波 暂告段落，市场风险偏好回升，美元指数高位震荡。 宏观策略（股指期货） 四部门部署进一步规范新能源汽车产业竞争秩序工作 华南码头停摆 目前 08-10 价差率扩大至 28%、基本贴近 30%的经验性折价率 ， 若现货持续超预期、可适当考虑情绪带动下 10 合约再度冲高 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for methanol is "Bullish" [7] Core Viewpoint - The report believes that methanol will likely be in a relatively strong position in the second half of 2025. Supply - side production is less likely to exceed expectations, and there are still factors disturbing the supply such as environmental protection restrictions and geopolitical issues. On the demand side, although the prices and profits of downstream products are expected to face pressure, the high - operation rate of MTO and the synergistic effect of integrated plants will support the overall operation rate. Potential geopolitical disturbances and concerns about Iranian natural gas supply may affect imports and port inventories, leading to a bullish outlook [5]. Summary by Directory 1. First - half Review - In the first half of 2025 (before the Israel - Iran conflict), methanol futures prices showed an overall downward trend, mainly due to upstream cost collapse and demand - side concerns. The domestic coal price dropped from 760 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to around 620 yuan/ton at the end of June, compared with around 850 yuan/ton in the same period last year. Methanol downstream demand was weak, with the traditional demand sectors like dimethyl ether, MTBE, and BDO having a downward - trending operation rate. MTO, although with a high operation rate, was in a loss state [16]. 2. Supply - In the second half of the year, the cost side will have limited incremental impact on the overall fundamentals. Coal prices are expected to remain low, so the profit of coal - to - methanol is likely to stay high, and the operation rate will probably remain strong. The market capacity growth rate in the second half of the year is expected to be limited (about 3 - 5%). Although the probability of maintenance increases, the operation rate will still be at a high level. It is expected that the production growth rate of methanol in the second half of the year will be 4% [21][24][25]. 3. Demand - The profit of MTO is likely to face long - term pressure and fall into a difficult situation. However, MTO may continue to maintain a high operation rate in the second half of the year due to the synergistic effect of integrated plants. Traditional downstream industries have their profits compressed, which may cause a certain decline in the operation load. For example, dimethyl ether is in the stage of capacity replacement and clearance, formaldehyde is in a situation of oversupply, and MTBE has a high inventory pressure. In emerging demand, DMC's demand support may strengthen in the third quarter, and the demand for methanol as fuel is expected to expand [32][43][51]. 4. Imports - In the second half of the year, many factors may limit the overall increase in imports. Considering the uncertainty of the regional situation, seasonal gas restrictions, and plant load - reduction expectations at the end of the year, the import volume may remain at a historical low. Under the neutral assumption of geopolitical conflict alleviation, the import volume in the second half of the year is expected to reach about 6.5 million tons; under the extreme assumption of Iran completely restricting supply, the import volume may be about 3 million tons [70]. 5. Inventory - The inland inventory is expected to remain at a historical low in the second half of the year due to the increased probability of centralized maintenance and limited new capacity release. The port inventory may decline under the pressure of the import side, and the overall inventory accumulation expectation is limited. It is predicted that the year - end social inventory will be at a historical low of 2.16 million tons [74][78]. 6. Investment Advice - Methanol prices are expected to show a relatively strong and volatile performance. On the supply side, the high operation rate of coal - to - methanol is expected to continue, but the maintenance expectation may affect futures prices. On the demand side, although the profit of MTO and traditional downstream industries is under pressure, the high operation rate of MTO and the synergistic effect of integrated plants will support the overall operation rate. Considering potential geopolitical disturbances and seasonal factors, imports are likely to remain low, and port inventory accumulation is limited. The price is expected to be supported during the third - quarter maintenance period, with the lower support around 2300 yuan and the upper limit around 2600 yuan [81].

日度报告——综合晨报 美国 6 月零售额环比增加超预期，五大钢材 品种延续小幅去库 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-07-18 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 美国 6 月零售额环比增 0.6%超预期 最新的美国 6 月零售数据环比增速 0.6%超预期，表明美国经济 韧性继续存在，短期美元指数进修维持震荡。 宏观策略（国债期货） 央行开展了 4505 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作 市场行情整体较为寡淡，走款结束后预计资金面边际转松，但 债市上涨空间也有限，近期整体震荡。 综 宏观策略（股指期货） 合 财政部、税务总局降低超豪华小汽车消费税征收门槛 晨 报 A 股继续演绎题材轮动多点开花的局面，指数继续上涨。当前依 然是易涨难跌的格局。等待更多宏观利多信号来夯实。 黑色金属（螺纹钢/热轧卷板） 6 月份中国钢筋产量为 1658.3 万吨 本周五大品种延续小幅去库态势，卷板去库略有加速，螺纹季 节性走弱态势更为明显。不过基本面压力不大，加之补库需求 尚未完成，对短期钢价仍有支撑。8 月需验证外需的变化。 农产品（豆油/菜油/棕榈油） 马来西亚：MPOB 公布 8 月毛棕榈油出口关税上调至 9% 利多消 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about the report industry investment ratings in the provided content. Core Views of the Report - The short - term gold price is in a volatile state, and the dollar index is expected to weaken in the short term. The stock market needs to observe the Politburo meeting's positioning of the domestic economy and forward - looking policies. The CBOT soybeans rose due to private sales and the Indonesia - US agreement, and the market is concerned about US tariff policies. Various commodities have different price trends and influencing factors, such as steel prices oscillating weakly, coal prices remaining seasonally strong, and copper prices potentially under short - term pressure [11][15][18][25]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - US June PPI annual rate was 2.3%, the lowest since September 2024, and the monthly rate was 0%. Gold fluctuated sharply due to the news of Trump potentially firing Powell. The fundamentals lack positive factors for gold, and the short - term gold price is in a volatile range. Investment advice is that the short - term gold price will oscillate with increased volatility [10][11][12]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - Dollar Index) - Fed officials believe the current restrictive monetary policy is appropriate. The Fed's Beige Book shows a slight economic uptick with high uncertainty. Trump denied firing Powell, but the dollar index is expected to weaken in the short term [13][15][16]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The State Council executive meeting studied policies to strengthen the domestic cycle. On July 17, the stock market was flat at a high level with low trading volume. The market needs to observe the Politburo meeting's stance. Investment advice is to allocate stock indices evenly [18][19]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - US banks' performance grew steadily, but the investment banking business was under short - term pressure. The Fed's Beige Book showed a slight economic increase. The market's risk appetite is supported, but risks from Trump's policies exist. The stock index is expected to oscillate, and investors should control their positions carefully [20][22][23]. 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Private exporters sold 120,000 tons of soybeans, and Indonesia will buy $4.5 billion of US agricultural products, causing CBOT soybeans to rise. The market is concerned about US tariff policies. The domestic and foreign futures prices are oscillating, and the market should monitor US soybean production area weather and tariff policies [24][25][26]. 2.2 Ferrous Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The steel price is oscillating weakly. The probability of over - expected policy stimulus is low. The steel price is expected to oscillate in the short term. Investment advice is to use a rebound hedging strategy for the spot market [27][28][29]. 2.3 Ferrous Metals (Steam Coal) - High - temperature weather supports coal consumption, and the coal price is expected to remain seasonally strong [30]. 2.4 Ferrous Metals (Iron Ore) - The iron ore price is oscillating at a high level. The supply is not expected to increase significantly this year, and the demand is under pressure. The price is difficult to break through the $100 resistance level [31][32]. 2.5 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The Middle East will impose tariffs on Chinese lead - acid battery enterprises. The lead price is falling, but the price center of Shanghai lead is expected to rise. Investment advice includes looking for short - term buying opportunities and considering internal - external inverse arbitrage [33][34][35]. 2.6 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Vedanta's zinc concentrate production increased in Q2 2025. The zinc price oscillated widely. The zinc market is under pressure, and investment advice includes short - term short - selling, positive arbitrage in the long - term month spread, and internal - external positive arbitrage [36][38]. 2.7 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Zimbabwe plans to build a lithium ore processing plant. The supply side of lithium carbonate has uncertainties. The price is expected to be strongly oscillating in the short term. Investment advice is to look for short - term long - buying and positive arbitrage opportunities [39][40]. 2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Kazakhstan will restrict non - ferrous metal exports and resume gallium production. The copper price may be under short - term pressure. Investment advice is to take a bearish approach for single - side trading and wait and see for arbitrage [41][45]. 2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Indonesia will shorten the mining quota period from 2026. The nickel price is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term and decline in the medium term. Investment advice is to look for short - selling opportunities [46][47]. 2.10 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The PDH unit of Guoheng stopped due to a malfunction. US C3 inventory increased, and the domestic market is weakly oscillating with insufficient upward momentum [48][49][50]. 2.11 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - EIA commercial crude oil inventory decreased, but gasoline and refined oil inventories increased. The oil price fell slightly. The short - term oil price is expected to oscillate [51][52][53]. 2.12 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong remained stable. The supply increased, and the demand was good. It is difficult for the price to continue rising [54][55]. 2.13 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp is weakening. The upward space of the pulp price is limited [56]. 2.14 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The price of PVC powder decreased. The PVC market followed the rebound but has limited upward potential due to inventory changes [57][58]. 2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - Bottle chip factories are implementing production cuts. The supply pressure will be relieved, and investors can look for opportunities to expand processing fees [59][60]. 2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash market is weakly stable. The supply is high, and the demand is average. Investment advice is to short - sell at high prices in the medium term [61]. 2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass decreased slightly. The glass market is weak, and investment advice includes considering cross - variety arbitrage [62][63]. 2.18 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - The Port of Long Beach will expand. The freight rate of the European line's 10 - contract retreated after rising. The 08 - contract's oscillation range moved up, but there are potential negative factors [64][65].

Report Title - Focused Container Port and Key Hub Monitoring 20250716 [1] Report Author - Lan Xi from the Black and Shipping Department of Orient Securities Derivatives Research Institute [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - In Asia, the superposition of typhoon season and export peak will continue to put pressure on domestic port operations, and the congestion pressure in Southeast Asian ports has rebounded after a brief easing [2]. - In Europe, issues such as summer vacations, labor shortages, railway shutdowns in Germany, and low water levels in the Rhine will gradually emerge in the next two months, causing European ports to face continuous pressure of increased congestion [2]. - In North America, the scale of ships in US ports has slightly increased, but the overall congestion level is still controllable, with a slight increase in the duration of ships in ports on the west coast and no significant change on the east coast [2]. Summary by Directory Data Review - **Asia Ports** - Yangshan Port: The weekly average waiting time/berthing time of ocean - going container ships is 18.2 hours/24.9 hours, with 23/32 ships at anchor/berthing. The average turnover time is about 2 days [2]. - Ningbo Port: The weekly average waiting time/berthing time is 14.3 hours/25.4 hours, with 17/39 ships at anchor/berthing. The average turnover time is about 2 days [2]. - Qingdao Port: The weekly average waiting time/berthing time is 34.5 hours/42.1 hours, and the average turnover time exceeds 3 days [2]. - Singapore Port: The weekly average waiting time/berthing time is 2.2 hours/30.1 hours, with 2/42 ships at anchor/berthing. The average time in port is 1.3 days [2]. - Port Klang: The weekly average waiting time/berthing time is 19.6 hours/34.8 hours, with 8/20 ships at anchor/berthing. The average time in port is 2.3 days [2]. - **European Ports** - Rotterdam, Antwerp, Hamburg, and Bremen: The weekly average waiting time/berthing time of ocean - going container ships are 14.4 hours/49.4 hours, 19.0 hours/36.3 hours, 11.2 hours/43.1 hours, and 28.1 hours/47.4 hours respectively, with 3/21, 3/20, 2/18 ships at anchor/berthing [2]. - Valencia: The weekly average waiting time/berthing time is 2.7 hours/40.9 hours, with 7/8 ships at anchor/berthing [2]. - The average time in port of Antwerp, Rotterdam, Hamburg, and Bremen are about 2.6 days, 2.5 days, 2.2 days, and 2.8 days respectively [2]. - **North American Ports** - Long Beach, Los Angeles, and Tacoma: The weekly average waiting time/berthing time of ocean - going container ships are 0 hours/127.2 hours, 6.6 hours/123.4 hours, and 15.7 hours/84.0 hours respectively. There are 0 ships at anchor in Long Beach and Los Angeles, and 19 ships berthing [2]. - New York, Savannah, and Norfolk: The weekly average waiting time/berthing time are 1.3 hours/46.0 hours, 13.3 hours/31.2 hours, and 6.7 hours/23.4 hours respectively. There is 1/10 ship at anchor/berthing in New York [2]. - Houston Port: The weekly average waiting time/berthing time is 0 hours/51.0 hours [2]. Data Overview - The latest average time in port of various ports, monthly and annual comparisons are presented. For example, Yangshan Port's latest time in port is 44.0 hours, with a monthly decrease of 9.0 hours and an annual increase of 19.1 hours [6]. Asian Port Dynamic Tracking - Data on the scale of container ships in ports, the number of ships at anchor and berthing, and the average time in port of ocean - going ships in Asian ports are provided [10][17] European Port Dynamic Tracking - Data on the scale of container ships in ports, the number of ships at anchor and berthing, and the average time in port of ocean - going ships in European ports are provided [20][26] North American Port Dynamic Tracking - Data on the scale of container ships in ports, the number of ships at anchor and berthing, and the average time in port of ocean - going ships in North American ports are provided [36][40] Large Ship Arrival and Key Hub Monitoring - Data on the arrival of large - scale container ships at key ports such as Yangshan, Ningbo, and Singapore, and the arrival of 12,000 + container ships of different alliances in Asia, Northwest Europe, and the Mediterranean are provided [44][47] - Data on the passage of container ships through the Cape of Good Hope, Suez Canal, and Panama Canal are provided [50][51]

策略报告-农产品 农产品月度策略跟踪（第 5 期） [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025 年 7 月 16 日 [★Ta策bl略e_S推um荐mary] 豆粕：不论中美关系如何，进口大豆成本易涨难跌，且预 计豆粕库存在 8 月见顶后供需面将逐渐改善，豆粕价格运 行中枢上行。关注 M2509、M2601 逢低做多的机会，中线 持有，若出现突发事件，两者跌破 2850、2950 则止损离场。 农 油脂：美生物燃料的驱动预计将持续抬高棕榈油长期价格 中枢，而基本面驱动则暂告一段落，随着 7 月逐步增产与 印度 6 月高进口的落地，近期利多基本出尽，预计棕榈油 将迎来小幅回调，短期可考虑适当空配 09 合约，但不建议 长期持有，中长期依旧建议逢低做多为主，可选择 01 合约 进行视时机多配。 产 品 玉米：新作因季节性卖压而下跌的概率较大，11、01 合约 宜以逢高沽空思路对待，只是旧作的价格和产需缺口表现， 将影响新作下跌的拐点以及幅度。近期的拍卖及库存数据 表明，旧作产需缺口不及预期的可能性提升，若旧作缺口 大幅下修，则新作下跌的拐点预计将提前来临，且跌幅预 计也较大，因此新作空单可考虑适当提前入场。 棉 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for stock index futures is "oscillation" [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The economic data in June 2025 was mixed. Although the Q2 GDP growth exceeded expectations, the demand declined significantly in June, with negative month - on - month growth in social retail and fixed - asset investment. Constraints on China's economic rebound are accumulating, including declining resident income, deteriorating real estate, and deepening deflation. For the stock market, due to the negative beta truncation effect of the national team's entry into the market, funds continue to drive the stock index up. It is recommended to allocate each stock index evenly to cope with the rapidly rotating market [1][2][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 June Economic Data Analysis - **GDP situation**: The real GDP in Q2 increased by 5.2% year - on - year, exceeding market expectations. The Q2 GDP had a 1.1% quarter - on - quarter growth, better than last year. However, the nominal GDP growth rate in Q2 was only 3.94%, a 0.65% decline from Q1. Low prices are still eroding the real growth rate [8] - **Supply - demand situation**: On the supply side, the industrial added value and service production index in June maintained a growth rate of about 6%. On the demand side, the year - on - year growth rates of social retail and fixed - asset investment in June were 4.8% and - 0.1% respectively, lower than market expectations and showing a decline from the previous month. The month - on - month growth rates were negative, at a poor level compared to historical data. Consumption growth highly depends on subsidies, and the fiscal impulse from the early issuance of national debt is fading [12] - **Real estate situation**: In June, the real estate investment growth rate was - 12.9%. The new construction area and sales area and amount all showed negative growth, and housing prices were accelerating their decline. The total capital source of real estate enterprises was still in a low - level shock. The real estate market has been deteriorating since Q2, and policies are needed to stop the decline [20] - **Resident income situation**: In Q2, the growth rate of per - capita disposable income of residents was 5.08%, a 0.47% decline from Q1. Except for the increase in transfer net income, other income sources such as wage income and business net income declined. The pressure on domestic consumption will increase in the second half of the year [27] - **Industrial capacity utilization situation**: The industrial capacity utilization rate in Q2 was 74%, a 0.1% decline from Q1. The mining and public utility industries were the main drags, while the manufacturing industry increased slightly. Some industries such as electronic information manufacturing and electrical equipment manufacturing saw an increase in capacity utilization, which may be related to export and investment [31] 3.2 Investment Suggestions - Although theoretically a GDP growth rate of about 4.7% in the second half of the year can achieve the full - year target, there are accumulating unfavorable factors for the economic rebound. It is necessary to increase the subsidy for consumer goods replacement and the efforts to stabilize the real estate market. For the stock market, unless there is a major change in US tariffs on China or a rapid decline in China's economic growth in Q3, the market may still ignore the fundamentals and remain in a high - level oscillation. It is recommended to evenly allocate each stock index to cope with the rapidly rotating market [2][35]