1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Powell's latest remarks suggest that the Fed needs to cut interest rates again and stop balance - sheet reduction, indicating a non - changing trend of monetary policy easing and a weakening US dollar index [14]. - On October 14, the stock market closed lower again with significant trading volume. Due to the lag and long - tail effects of the tariff war and more upcoming negotiations, the situation needs to be observed [2]. - Sino - US trade relations are an incremental positive for the bond market. If the equity market is confirmed to be in high - level consolidation, the bond market will see a slight upward trend [3]. - Steel prices continue to be weak, with iron ore price declines bringing cost - side risks. There is still inventory pressure on finished products, and caution is advised regarding steel prices [4]. - In the short term, lithium prices may show a combination of strong reality and weak expectations, with narrow - range fluctuations. It is advisable to focus on short - selling opportunities on price rallies [5]. - The IEA monthly report slightly lowers the global demand growth forecast, and concerns about oversupply have pushed oil prices down [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump announced the end of the war, but the path to peace in the Middle East remains fragile. The US government shutdown has entered its 14th day, and the White House vows to continue layoffs [12][13]. - Powell suggests that the Fed may cut interest rates by 25 basis points later this month and stop balance - sheet reduction in the coming months. This indicates a non - changing trend of monetary policy easing and a weakening US dollar index [14]. - Investment advice: Expect the US dollar index to weaken [15]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The National Development and Reform Commission issued a management method to support energy - saving and carbon - reduction renovations in key industries [16]. - The Premier of the State Council held an economic situation symposium. On October 14, the stock market closed lower with significant volume. Due to the tariff war uncertainties and more upcoming negotiations, the situation needs to be observed [17][18]. - Investment advice: Allocate evenly among stock indices [19]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Powell leaves the door open for interest rate cuts and may stop balance - sheet reduction in the future. Fed Governor Bowman expects two more interest rate cuts by the end of the year [20][21]. - Goldman Sachs' Q3 revenue reached a record high for the same period. Fed officials' dovish remarks support market sentiment, and the 10 - month interest rate meeting is expected to cut rates [22]. - Investment advice: Given the lingering tariff threat, pay attention to negotiation progress and look for opportunities to enter the market on dips [23]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 600 billion yuan of 6 - month (182 - day) outright reverse repurchase operations on October 15 and 91 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on October 14 [24][25]. - Sino - US trade relations are positive for the bond market. However, factors such as the stock market adjustment rhythm, policy expectations, and the fund fee rate new regulations may affect the bond market. - Investment advice: Hold existing long positions, be cautious about adding new long positions. There will be opportunities to buy on dips after the fund fee rate new regulations are implemented [26]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal market in Hebei is stable. Coal mine production is stable, and high iron - water production supports coking coal demand. However, the steel market still faces supply - demand pressure, and short - term steel prices may be under pressure [27]. - Investment advice: In the short term, the coking coal fundamentals are weak. Pay attention to future demand [28]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - ANEC predicts that Brazil's soybean exports in October will be 731 million tons. The estimated soybean crushing volume of NOPA members in September is 186.34 million bushels. CONAB predicts an increase in Brazil's soybean production and exports in the 25/26 season [29][30][31]. - Investment advice: The domestic and international futures prices are expected to remain weak and volatile. Pay attention to Brazilian weather, Sino - US relations, and whether the M2601 contract can find support at 2900 [31]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - In Xinjiang, the purchase price of cottonseed in the northern region has stabilized, and the "fixed - price" sales model is becoming more popular. The global textile industry is facing challenges, and China's textile and clothing exports from January to September decreased by 0.3% year - on - year [32][33][34]. - Investment advice: In the short term, Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be weak and volatile. Pay attention to new cotton purchases, Sino - US relations, and macro - level dynamics [35]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Indonesia is considering regulating palm oil exports to meet B50 demand, which may reduce global edible oil supply [36]. - Investment advice: The B50 policy in Indonesia will cause supply shortages. Unless the policy fails, it is advisable to buy on dips [37]. 3.2.5 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The world steel demand in 2025 is expected to be about 1.75 billion tons, and it will rebound by 1.3% in 2026. In early October, the daily output of crude steel by key steel enterprises was 2.032 million tons, and the inventory increased [38][39]. - Investment advice: In the short term, adopt a weak - volatility mindset, short on price rebounds, or wait for price drops [41]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - The price of red dates in the Guangzhou Ruyifang market is stable. The futures price of the main contract slightly declined. The Xinjiang production area is in the drying - on - the - tree period, and the demand in distribution areas is stable [42][43]. - Investment advice: Before the main trading logic becomes clear, it is advisable to wait and see. Pay attention to price negotiations and purchase progress in the production area [43]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - On October 14, 2025, the theoretical profits of corn starch enterprises in Heilongjiang, Jilin, Hebei, and Shandong were 12 yuan/ton, 56 yuan/ton, 69 yuan/ton, and 57 yuan/ton respectively, with an increase in losses [44]. - Investment advice: Continue to look for opportunities to narrow the spot rice - flour price spread in the long - term. If the deterioration of the real - world fundamentals is slow, the 11 - contract rice - flour price spread may still have room for upward correction [44]. 3.2.8 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - In September, brown coal imports were 46 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.3%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative coal imports decreased by 11.1% year - on - year [45][46]. - Investment advice: Due to supply reduction, strong thermal power demand, and winter storage, steam coal prices are unlikely to fall significantly in the short term, and there is strong support around 700 yuan/ton [46]. 3.2.9 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Rio Tinto's Pilbara iron ore production in Q3 2025 was 84.1 million tons. Iron ore prices may fluctuate narrowly between 100 - 110 US dollars due to insufficient finished - product demand and stable iron - water production [47]. - Investment advice: Iron ore is expected to fluctuate narrowly between 100 - 110 US dollars. Maintain a volatility - market mindset [47]. 3.2.10 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Domestic corn prices are weak. The futures price of the main contract has fallen below 2100 and then rebounded. The basis is expected to weaken, and the futures price may gradually outperform the spot price [48]. - Investment advice: Hold existing short positions and closely monitor market sentiment. Do not enter long positions too early for a rebound [49]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - South Korea's OCI acquires a Vietnamese silicon wafer factory. The spot price of polysilicon is stable, and the production in October is expected to increase. The prices of silicon wafers and battery cells are stable, and the component price may fluctuate [50][51][52]. - Investment advice: The progress of platform companies may cause market fluctuations. It is advisable to consider going long on the PS2512 contract when it is at a discount to the spot. Look for reverse - arbitrage opportunities between the PS2511 - PS2512 contracts at around - 2000 yuan/ton [53]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - Dongyue Silicon Materials' net profit in the first three quarters of 2025 is expected to decline significantly. The start - up of northern silicon plants is increasing, while southern plants may reduce production. There may be seasonal inventory accumulation and depletion, but the supply - demand contradiction is not obvious [54]. - Investment advice: It is more advisable to go long on industrial silicon at low prices, but be cautious about chasing up [55]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - On October 13, the LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount of 45.35 US dollars/ton. The Shanghai lead futures price fluctuated downward, and the LME lead price was weak. The domestic lead - ingot import window opened briefly, and the social inventory decreased [56]. - Investment advice: For single - side trading, look for opportunities to buy on dips and beware of delivery risks. For arbitrage, look for positive - arbitrage opportunities in the month - spread and short - term internal - external reverse - arbitrage opportunities [56]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - On October 13, the LME 0 - 3 zinc was at a premium of 201.6 US dollars/ton. The zinc - ingot export window has opened, and the LME inventory has increased. The domestic demand improvement is limited [57][58]. - Investment advice: For single - side trading, it is advisable to wait and see. For arbitrage, look for medium - term positive - arbitrage opportunities and maintain a positive - arbitrage mindset for internal - external trading, and take profits on positive - arbitrage positions in batches on dips [58]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - In September, the combined production of power and other batteries in China increased by 35.4% year - on - year. Currently, the lithium carbonate market is in the peak - season inventory - depletion phase, but the supply is expected to remain high, and the demand may face a decline [59]. - Investment advice: In the short term, lithium prices may fluctuate narrowly. It is advisable to focus on short - selling opportunities on price rallies and look for reverse - arbitrage opportunities between the LC2511 - 2512 contracts [59]. 3.2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - A fire occurred at an HPAL project in Indonesia, but it does not affect the project progress. Short - term macro factors are volatile. The nickel ore price is expected to rise in Q4, and the refined nickel may face inventory accumulation pressure in Q4 [60][61]. - Investment advice: Consider going long on nickel after macro risks stabilize [61]. 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The IEA monthly report slightly lowers the global demand growth forecast, and concerns about oversupply have pushed oil prices down [6]. - Investment advice: Oil prices are expected to be weak and volatile in the short term [63]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - On October 14, the CEA closing price was 55.82 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.33% from the previous day. The carbon market trading volume has not increased significantly, and the price is under pressure [63]. - Investment advice: The CEA price is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term [64]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - On October 14, the price of high - concentration caustic soda in Shandong decreased. The supply has increased, and the demand is average [66]. - Investment advice: Due to the weakening of the Shandong spot price and the poor performance of the macro - economy and coal market, be cautious about bottom - fishing [66]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - On October 14, the domestic PVC powder market price decreased, and the trading volume was weak. The supply pressure is increasing due to new capacity releases, and the demand is pessimistic due to anti - dumping measures [67][68]. - Investment advice: The PVC fundamentals are weak, and the inventory is accumulating. The price is expected to remain weak and volatile in the short term, with limited room for further decline [68]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - Bottle - chip factory export prices continue to decline. Polyester raw material prices have fallen, and bottle - chip factories have lowered their prices. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, but it may accumulate in Q4 [69][71]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the resumption of factory production and new capacity releases. The supply - demand contradiction may increase in Q4, putting pressure on processing fees [71]. 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - On October 14, the soda ash market in Shahe was volatile. The futures price decreased due to the overall risk - appetite decline in the commodity market. The new capacity of Yuangxing's Phase II project is delayed, but the supply is high, and the demand is average [72]. - Investment advice: In the medium - term, maintain a short - selling mindset on price rallies and pay attention to new capacity releases [72]. 3.2.23 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - On October 14, the float glass price in the Shahe market decreased. The glass futures price continued to fall, mainly due to the delay in the coal - to - gas conversion of several coal - fired production lines in Shahe [73]. - Investment advice: The glass market shows a lack of peak - season strength. Due to supply - side uncertainties, single - side trading is risky. It is recommended to look for arbitrage opportunities by going long on glass and short on soda ash when the price spread widens [74]. 3.2.24 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - In September 2025, China's fertilizer imports were 122,400 tons, and exports were 5.438 million tons. From January to September, imports decreased by 6.7% year - on - year, and exports increased by 45.4% year - on - year [75]. - Investment advice: Due to weather - related demand delays, pay attention to whether the demand in Northeast China can be released. When the 2601 contract falls below 1600 yuan/ton, gradually close out short - selling positions. Reserve entities are advised to continue with a dispersed purchasing strategy [77].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report The report offers a comprehensive analysis of various financial and commodity markets, presenting insights into market trends, influencing factors, and corresponding investment suggestions. It takes into account factors such as policy changes, supply - demand dynamics, and geopolitical events to assess market conditions and risks [1][2][3]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Gold prices soared over 3% to above $4100, reaching a new high. The market's bullish sentiment was high, with funds flowing into gold. The short - term market sentiment dominated the trend, and market volatility increased as gold prices entered uncharted territory [13]. - Investment advice: Gold prices are strong in the short term, and market volatility intensifies [14]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Fed official Anna Paulson hinted at two more 25 - basis - point rate cuts this year, believing that tariffs have a controllable impact on inflation. This dovish stance led to a short - term weakening of the US dollar index [16]. - Investment advice: The US dollar is expected to weaken in the short term [17]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - On Monday, the A - share market showed three unexpected features: a sharp gap - down opening, shrinking trading volume despite strong dip - buying意愿, and significant divergence between the Sci - tech Innovation and ChiNext boards. - Investment advice: Balance the allocation of various stock index contracts to cope with the rapidly rotating market [21]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Fed official Paulson supports two more 25 - basis - point rate cuts this year. The AI sector remains the main driving force for the index's rise [22][23]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the negotiation progress and look for opportunities to enter the market on dips [24]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - China's September import and export growth exceeded expectations. The stock market's bullish sentiment remained unchanged, and it is expected that the bond market will fluctuate in the short term [27]. - Investment advice: The bond market will fluctuate in the short term. After the new regulations on fund fees are implemented, there will be opportunities to buy on dips [28]. 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Overnight, the external market fell more than 3%. However, as Brazil's peak crushing season passes and the Northern Hemisphere enters a new crushing season, the downward space for ICE raw sugar is not optimistic [32]. - Investment advice: Due to the impact of the external market decline, Zhengzhou sugar is in a weak downward trend, but it is not recommended to short aggressively [33]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - China's September soybean imports reached a record high for the same period. As of October 10, soybean inventory continued to rise, but soybean meal inventory decreased due to the drop in oil mill operating rates during the holiday [36]. - Investment advice: It is expected that the prices of domestic and foreign futures will fluctuate temporarily. Continue to monitor the planting situation of new Brazilian soybeans and the development of Sino - US relations [37]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - From October 1 - 10, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 6.59% month - on - month. The domestic palm oil inventory decreased by 0.83% month - on - month but was still higher than last year [39][40]. - Investment advice: Look for opportunities to buy palm oil on dips, and pay attention to Indonesia's biodiesel policy and October production [40]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - On October 13, the price of red dates in the Hebei Cuierzhuang market stabilized. The futures price of the main contract CJ601 closed slightly higher [41]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see. Focus on the price negotiation in the production area and the acquisition progress [42]. 2.5 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - India's coal production in September decreased year - on - year. Although coal prices rebounded in the short term, the seasonal weakness from October to November is difficult to change [44]. - Investment advice: Coal prices are expected to continue to decline [44]. 2.6 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - India's GPIL plans to expand its iron ore mine. Short - term policy factors may support ore prices, but terminal demand is weak, and the short - term upward space is limited [45]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to short - term policy impacts, but the short - term upward space is limited [46]. 2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - Corn starch companies' theoretical profits have turned positive. It is expected that the spot rice - flour price difference will continue to narrow in the long - term [47]. - Investment advice: Consider short - term opportunities to short the spot rice - flour price difference [47]. 2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn) - On October 13, domestic corn prices continued to decline. The corn market has entered the production - area pricing stage, and the current price is unlikely to have bottomed out [48]. - Investment advice: Hold existing short positions and avoid early entry for long positions [48]. 2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The US government stopped a large - scale solar project. The spot price of polysilicon is expected to remain stable in October. The PS2511 contract is significantly discounted, and light - position long positions can be considered [52]. - Investment advice: Consider light - position long positions in the PS2511 contract and pay attention to the PS2511 - PS2512 reverse arbitrage opportunity [52]. 2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The US imposed high tariffs on Angolan industrial silicon. The price floor of industrial silicon is more definite, and it is recommended to buy on dips [54]. - Investment advice: Consider buying industrial silicon on dips, but be cautious when chasing up [54]. 2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - As of October 13, the social inventory of lead ingots decreased. Due to short - term supply - demand mismatch, Shanghai lead may fluctuate upward [56]. - Investment advice: Look for buying opportunities on pullbacks and beware of delivery risks [56]. 2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - As of October 13, the domestic zinc inventory increased. The global visible inventory is rising marginally. The Shanghai zinc is expected to fluctuate widely [57]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see. Consider medium - term positive arbitrage opportunities [58]. 2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - The accident at El Teniente copper mine will affect production until 2026. The short - term copper price is likely to fluctuate upward [63]. - Investment advice: Buy copper on pullbacks and wait and see for arbitrage [63]. 2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Indonesia requires nickel mining companies to submit 2026 production plans. Nickel ore prices are expected to rise in Q4. It is recommended to buy on dips after sentiment is released [67]. - Investment advice: Look for opportunities to buy nickel on dips after sentiment is released [67]. 2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Australia is considering a key minerals agreement with the US. The short - term lithium price may fluctuate narrowly. It is recommended to short on rallies [70]. - Investment advice: Short lithium carbonate on rallies and pay attention to the LC2511 - 2512 reverse arbitrage opportunity [70]. 2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - Trump's tariff statement brought uncertainty. The profit of PDH is unsustainable. It is recommended to short the PDH profit on the right - hand side [74]. - Investment advice: Look for opportunities to short the PDH profit on the right - hand side [74]. 2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - OPEC's September crude oil production increased. The short - term market sentiment has recovered, but the upward space is limited [75]. - Investment advice: The short - term upward space for crude oil prices is limited [76]. 2.18 Energy and Chemicals (PX) - On October 13, the PX price fell. It is expected to follow the oil price and fluctuate downward [77]. - Investment advice: PX is expected to fluctuate downward following the oil price [79]. 2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Asphalt) - In September, domestic asphalt production increased. The supply - demand fundamentals are unlikely to have a continuous mismatch [81]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see [82]. 2.20 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - On October 13, the PTA spot price declined. The short - term PTA price is expected to fluctuate downward, and the PTA - oil price spread may widen passively [83]. - Investment advice: PTA is expected to fluctuate downward, and the PTA - oil price spread may widen passively [85]. 2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Methanol) - On October 13, the methanol price in Taicang increased. The short - term methanol price is likely to rise but with limited upward space [86]. - Investment advice: The short - term methanol price is likely to rise, but the upward space is limited [86]. 2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - As of October 13, the inventory of styrene in Jiangsu ports decreased. It is not recommended to expand the styrene - benzene spread [87]. - Investment advice: Do not expand the styrene - benzene spread [87]. 2.23 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - On October 13, bottle chip factories lowered their export prices. The supply - demand contradiction may accumulate in the fourth quarter [91]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the factory's resumption of production and the new device's commissioning [91]. 2.24 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - On October 13, the price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong increased locally. It is necessary to be cautious when bottom - fishing [94]. - Investment advice: Be cautious when bottom - fishing caustic soda [94]. 2.25 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - On October 13, the price of imported wood pulp showed differentiation. The pulp market is expected to fluctuate downward [96]. - Investment advice: The pulp market is expected to fluctuate downward [96]. 2.26 Energy and Chemicals (Urea) - The utilization rate of compound fertilizer production capacity decreased. It is not recommended to be overly bearish on urea after the UR2601 contract falls below 1600 yuan/ton [100]. - Investment advice: Do not be overly bearish on urea after the UR2601 contract falls below 1600 yuan/ton [100]. 2.27 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - On October 13, the PVC powder market price fluctuated slightly. Pay attention to macro changes [101]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to macro changes [101]. 2.28 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - As of October 13, the inventory of soda ash manufacturers increased. It is recommended to short soda ash on rallies [102]. - Investment advice: Short soda ash on rallies and pay attention to supply - side disturbances [102]. 2.29 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - On October 13, the price of float glass in the Shahe market decreased. It is recommended to consider the arbitrage opportunity of going long on FG2601 and shorting SA2601 [105]. - Investment advice: Consider the arbitrage opportunity of going long on FG2601 and shorting SA2601 [105].

周度报告——光伏玻璃 工 国庆假期后，市场并未迎来需求的快速复苏。与往年"金九银十" 传统旺季表现不同，今年国庆后光伏玻璃需求端恢复缓慢。一方 面是组件厂家光伏玻璃原料库存较高，进入 10 月，组件厂家以 消化现有库存为主，新增采购较少；另一方面是组件厂家存在明 显的压价预期，倾向于通过控制订单释放节奏来向光伏玻璃厂家 争取更有利的价格条件，从而导致市场需求未能完全释放，也进 一步加剧了光伏玻璃企业的出货压力。 光伏玻璃厂家库存环比节前大幅上涨，增幅超出市场预期。随着 后期市场预期转向悲观，行业库存可能进一步攀升，光伏玻璃行 业将再度面临高库存压力。 由于成本端继续走弱，节后光伏玻璃行业盈利状况继续小幅好 转，目前行业毛利率约为 3.27%。 ★ 供需分析： [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025 年 10 月 13 日 ★光伏玻璃基本面周度表现（截至 2025/10/11 当周）： 截至 10 月 11 日，国内光伏玻璃 2.0mm 镀膜（面板）主流价格 为 13 元/平方米，环比节前持平；3.2mm 镀膜主流价格为 21 元 /平方米，亦环比节前持平。 能 源 化 目前光伏玻璃新产线的投产节奏开始放 ...

周度报告——风险管理 期货技术分析周报：2025 年第 42 周 报告日期： 2025 年 10 月 13 日 ★有色及贵金属板块 根据技术指标信号，贵金属板块黄金出现看跌信号，白银震 荡为主；有色金属板块铝合金看涨，沪镍、多晶硅和不锈钢 看跌。碳酸锂 LC2511 预计在 71300-76800 元/吨区间波动， 围绕 MA60 均线震荡。铜铝均呈震荡格局，铜铝在 R3 附近 阻力较强。黄金白银虽保持上升趋势，但黄金高位震荡，白 银临近超买，需密切关注阻力位突破情况。 ★黑色及航运板块 | 吴奇翀 | 产业咨询资深分析师 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格号： | F03103978 | | 投资咨询号： | Z0019617 | | Tel： | 8621-63325888 | | Email： | qichong.wu@orientfutures.com | 联系人 | 宋静 | 产业咨询分析师 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格号： | F03130547 | | Tel： | 8621-63325888 | | Email： | jing.song@orientfutures.c ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes various sectors including finance and commodities, influenced by factors such as trade frictions, geopolitical events, and supply - demand dynamics. Trade frictions between the US and China, especially Trump's tariff statements, have a significant impact on market risk preferences, asset prices, and supply - demand relationships in different industries. Geopolitical events like the situation in the Middle East also affect relevant markets. Each sector has its own unique supply - demand characteristics and price trends, and investment strategies vary accordingly [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Trump plans to impose an additional 100% tariff on Chinese goods and strict export controls on software, which makes the gold price rise and increases market uncertainty. The short - term gold price is expected to be strong, but there are also factors such as profit - taking and liquidity shocks [12][13]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump's softened stance on tariffs reduces the risk of the US - China trade war, and the market risk preference rebounds. The short - term US dollar index is expected to fluctuate [14][15][16]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The intensification of tariff disturbances and the uncertainty of Sino - US relations lead to a decline in market risk preference. It is necessary to closely monitor the progress of subsequent negotiations. If the two sides' attitudes ease, it may be a good buying opportunity [17][18][19]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The escalation of Sino - US trade frictions puts pressure on the short - term risk preference of A - shares. It is recommended to reduce positions and wait for the progress of Sino - US relations [20][21][22]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducts 4090 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. If the new regulations on fund fees are not considered, the treasury bond futures are expected to gradually strengthen. After the implementation of the new regulations, there may be opportunities to buy at low prices [23][24][25]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metal (Steam Coal) - Coastal power groups release procurement demand for imported steam coal in November, but the cost of traders is high. The short - term price rebound cannot change the seasonal weakness of coal prices from October to November [26][27]. 3.2.2 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - BHP accepts RMB settlement for iron ore trade. Although there is short - term support, the pressure on the demand side should be noted due to the weakening terminal demand [28]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The export volume of Malaysian palm oil from October 1 - 10 increased. Due to the new tariff statement by Trump, the oil market is expected to open lower this week. After the market stabilizes, long positions can be considered [29][30]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Domestic sugar production and sales data show that the destocking of old sugar slows down. The short - term upward momentum of Zhengzhou sugar is restricted, but the downside space is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate [34][35]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - Affected by weather and Sino - US trade frictions, the picking progress of Xinjiang cotton slows down, and the upper space of Zhengzhou cotton is limited in the short term. It is necessary to pay attention to the acquisition of new cotton and Sino - US relations [39][40]. 3.2.6 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The inventory of steel products increases during the holiday, and the actual pressure on finished products exists. The steel price is expected to continue the weak and volatile pattern in the near future. It is recommended to operate lightly and short on rebounds [43][44]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The proportion of drought - affected areas in US soybean production areas increases, and the sowing progress of Brazilian soybeans is good. The Sino - US trade war escalates, and the futures price is expected to show a pattern of strong domestic and weak foreign. It is necessary to pay attention to Sino - US relations and the situation of Brazilian new crops [45][46][48]. 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The price of new - season corn is weak. The corn market will enter the stage of production - area pricing. It is recommended to hold short positions and not enter long positions prematurely [50][51]. 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The inventory of corn starch enterprises increases. The spot rice - flour price difference is expected to shrink in the long - term, and the futures price difference may fluctuate at a low level [52]. 3.2.10 Agricultural Products (Jujube) - Jujube is in the transition period between old and new production seasons. The market will focus on the speculation of the opening price, and it is necessary to pay attention to the price game and acquisition progress in the production area [55]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - The resources of some copper mines increase. The short - term copper price is under pressure, but the medium - term expectation is good. It is recommended to buy on dips and wait and see for arbitrage [56][58][59]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Ford delays purchasing lithium metal. The short - term price of lithium carbonate is supported, but the long - term supply is expected to increase. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to the reverse spread [60][61]. 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The discount of LME lead increases, and the domestic social inventory of lead decreases. The short - term price of Shanghai lead may fluctuate upward. It is recommended to buy on dips and pay attention to delivery risks [62][63]. 3.2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc inventory decreases, and the 0 - 3 spread strengthens. The short - term zinc price is expected to fluctuate widely. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and pay attention to positive spreads for arbitrage [64][65]. 3.2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - GCL Technology obtains capital injection. The spot price of polysilicon may be stable. It is recommended to try long positions lightly and pay attention to the reverse spread [66][70]. 3.2.16 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - An industrial silicon project in Angola is put into operation. The fundamental contradiction of industrial silicon is not obvious. It is recommended to go long on dips with caution [71][72]. 3.2.17 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Indonesia adjusts the RKAB approval system. The global nickel inventory increases, but the nickel price has support at the bottom. It is recommended to go long at low prices at the beginning of the week [73][75][76]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The EU carbon price rises slightly. The investment fund's long position increases. The carbon price is expected to fluctuate strongly [77][79]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The number of US oil rigs decreases. The short - term oil price may be greatly affected by macro factors [80][81]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (PX) - The PX price falls. The short - term PX price is expected to adjust weakly [82][84]. 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong rises locally. It is necessary to be cautious when bottom - fishing [85][87]. 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - The PTA spot price moves down. The short - term PTA price is expected to adjust weakly [88][90]. 3.2.23 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp is stable. The pulp market is expected to fluctuate weakly [91][92]. 3.2.24 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC powder price is sorted out narrowly. It is necessary to pay attention to macro changes [93]. 3.2.25 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The bottle chip factory reduces production. The supply - demand contradiction may accumulate in the fourth quarter, and the processing fee is under pressure [95]. 3.2.26 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash price is stable. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to supply disturbances [96][98]. 3.2.27 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The float glass price is stable. It is recommended to pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of going long on glass 2601 and short on soda ash 2601 [99][100]. 3.2.28 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - China will charge additional fees for US ships. The container freight rate index fluctuates. It is recommended to trade with a volatile mindset and pay attention to long and short opportunities [101][104].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for lithium carbonate is "Oscillating" [5] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the holiday, lithium salt prices fluctuated within a narrow range. The fundamentals provide short - term support for prices but cannot independently drive prices up. In the future, the supply side is expected to remain high or even increase, while the demand side faces downward pressure. In the short term, it is a combination of strong reality and weak expectations. It is recommended to focus on short - selling opportunities on rallies and the reverse spread opportunity of LC2511 - 2512 [2][3][12][13] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Continued Inventory Reduction During the Peak Season, Focus on Project Restart Progress - Post - holiday (09/26 - 10/10) lithium salt prices had a narrow - range oscillation. LC2510's closing price remained flat at 72,700 yuan/ton, LC2511's closing price decreased by 0.2% to 72,700 yuan/ton. SMM's average spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.1% to 73,600 and 71,300 yuan/ton respectively. The price of lithium hydroxide slightly declined. The average prices of SMM's coarse - grained and micron - sized battery - grade lithium hydroxide decreased by 0.5% to 73,500 and 78,500 yuan/ton respectively. The price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate narrowed to near zero [11][12] - Currently in the peak - season inventory reduction period, last week's domestic lithium carbonate weekly production slightly increased to 20,600 tons, and inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 135,000 tons compared to September 25th. In October, downstream production schedules continued to increase month - on - month, and with a slight decrease in imports, domestic lithium carbonate is expected to continue inventory reduction, but the reduction rate is lower than the same period last year [12] 2. Review of Weekly Industry News - Zangge Mining's wholly - owned subsidiary obtained the Real Estate Ownership Certificate (Mining Right) and Mining License, adding associated minerals such as lithium ore, which is significant for ensuring potassium salt supply, developing lithium resources, and enhancing the company's competitiveness [14] - The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs will implement export controls on lithium batteries and related items with a weight - energy density of 300Wh/kg or more starting from November 8, 2025 [14] - Ford postponed purchasing lithium from Liontown due to the decline in electric vehicle sales, and the future delivery volume will be halved [15] 3. Monitoring of Key High - Frequency Data in the Industry Chain 3.1 Resource End: Spot Quotes of Lithium Concentrate Remained Stable - The spot price of lithium concentrate remained stable, with the average spot price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) at 839 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2.1% month - on - month [12] 3.2 Lithium Salts: The Market Trended Weakly and Oscillated - The closing price of the main lithium carbonate futures contract on GFEX (LC2511) decreased by 0.2% month - on - month to 72,740 yuan/ton [12] 3.3 Downstream Intermediate Products: Quotes Slightly Declined - The prices of downstream intermediate products such as lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials showed different trends, with some prices slightly decreasing and some increasing [12] 3.4 Terminal: The Installation Proportion of Lithium Iron Phosphate in August Further Increased - In August, the installation proportion of lithium iron phosphate in power batteries further increased, and relevant data on new energy vehicle production, sales, and penetration rate were also presented [41]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Oscillation [1][5] - Polysilicon: Oscillation [1][5] 2. Core Views of the Report - Industrial silicon has seasonal inventory accumulation and depletion, but the fundamental contradictions are not obvious compared to the industry inventory of over 1 million tons. After hedging, short - term price drops are unlikely to cause production cuts, and prices need to exceed 10,000 yuan/ton to bring significant supply increments. The lower limit of industrial silicon prices may be clearer, and it is advisable to go long at low prices with caution [2][4][12] - The progress of platform companies in the polysilicon sector has fallen short of expectations, leading to a decline in the market. However, it may be premature to declare their failure. The judgment that spot prices will not fall in October is maintained. The PS2511 contract is significantly at a discount, and the PS2512 contract is basically at par. It is advisable to consider going long with a light position and pay attention to the PS2511 - PS2512 reverse arbitrage opportunity around - 2000 yuan/ton [4][14][19] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - The Si2511 contract of industrial silicon increased by 45 yuan/ton to 8,685 yuan/ton compared to before the holiday. The spot price of East China oxygen - blown 553 remained at 9,450 yuan/ton, and the price of Xinjiang 99 silicon remained at 8,950 yuan/ton. The PS2511 contract of polysilicon decreased by 2,395 yuan/ton to 48,965 yuan/ton compared to before the holiday [10][11] 3.2 Industrial Silicon Supply - Demand and Market Conditions - Compared to the end of September, Xinjiang added 3 furnaces, and Yunnan reduced 1 furnace. Northern large - scale factories are increasing production, while some southern silicon factories are starting to reduce production slightly and may significantly cut production at the end of October. It is expected that the number of operating furnaces in Yunnan will drop to more than 20, and in Sichuan to around 35. The SMM industrial silicon social inventory increased by 0.2 million tons compared to before the holiday, and the sample factory inventory increased by 0.54 million tons. Downstream demand is for essential purchases. If the eastern base of Xinjiang large - scale factories opens 50 furnaces, the industrial silicon may accumulate about 40,000 tons of inventory from September to October and deplete about 50,000 tons during the dry season from November to December. If 60 furnaces are opened, it will be difficult to deplete inventory in November and only a small amount in December [2][12] 3.3 Organic Silicon Market Conditions - The price of organic silicon remained flat this week. Some production facilities are under maintenance. The overall enterprise operating rate is 71.95%, the weekly output is 47,600 tons (a decrease of 1.04% month - on - month), and the inventory is 42,900 tons (a decrease of 1.61% month - on - month). The operating rate has declined, supply has shrunk, and with the support of previous order fulfillment, monomer factories' inventory has been digested to some extent. Enterprises are more willing to hold prices, and the price is expected to oscillate with an upward bias [12][13] 3.4 Polysilicon Market Conditions - The spot price of dense material from first - tier manufacturers remained at 55 yuan/kg, and that from second - and third - tier manufacturers was 52 - 53 yuan/kg. The new order price of granular material was 51 yuan/kg. In September, the average transaction price of first - tier dense material was 51 - 52 yuan/kg, and a small number of orders reached 53 yuan/kg before the National Day. The large - scale transactions in October have not started yet. The production schedule for October has been further increased to 138,000 tons. There are rumors that the south - western base of leading enterprises will gradually reduce production during the dry season at the end of October. As of October 9, the factory inventory of polysilicon enterprises was 240,000 tons (an increase of 14,000 tons month - on - month), mainly concentrated in leading enterprises. As of September 30, the polysilicon inventory of silicon wafer enterprises was 222,000 tons (an increase of 14,000 tons month - on - month), reaching 2 - 2.5 months' supply. Although production restrictions have not been implemented, sales restrictions are still in place, making the monthly supply - demand situation tighter than shown in the balance sheet. Considering the inventory distribution and production pressure in downstream sectors, the spot price of polysilicon may remain flat [3][14] 3.5 Silicon Wafer Market Conditions - The price of silicon wafers remained stable this week. The mainstream transaction prices of M10/G12R/G12 silicon wafers remained at 1.35/1.40/1.70 yuan/piece. The production schedule for October was 55.68GW (a decrease of 3.4GW month - on - month). As of October 9, the inventory of silicon wafer factories was 16.78GW (an increase of 0.55GW month - on - month). The inventory is within a reasonable range, and future prices are expected to remain stable [15] 3.6 Battery Cell Market Conditions - The price of battery cells remained stable this week. The mainstream transaction prices of M10/G12R/G12 battery cells remained at 0.32/0.29/0.31 yuan/watt. Benefiting from domestic centralized demand, some battery manufacturers raised the price of G12 battery cells to 0.32 yuan/W. As of October 9, the inventory of Chinese photovoltaic battery export factories was 5.97GW (an increase of 2.93GW month - on - month). Due to the National Day holiday, the inventory has accumulated but is still under control. The domestic centralized orders are acceptable. India announced the final anti - dumping "suggested" tax rate on imported batteries and components from China on September 29, with a planned three - year levy period starting in 1 - 3 months. To avoid taxes, the Indian market may continue to stockpile batteries, and short - term battery exports are expected to increase again and remain high until the end of the year [16] 3.7 Component Market Conditions - The price of components remained basically stable this week. Centralized components mainly fulfilled previous orders, with the mainstream delivery price ranging from 0.63 to 0.69 yuan/watt. The delivery price for large - scale customers of distributed projects was between 0.66 and 0.69 yuan/watt, and a small number of transactions were above 0.7 yuan/watt. As of September 29, the inventory of Chinese photovoltaic component finished products was 33.6GW (a decrease of 1.6GW month - on - month). Some leading enterprises reduced production, and the domestic production schedule for October was 45.66GW (a decrease of 2.1GW month - on - month). The rush to install to meet the 14th Five - Year Plan target supports demand in October, but considering the poor tendering situation this year, the component demand from November to December may be pessimistic. Components are under pressure from rising raw material costs and price increases of auxiliary materials such as glass and adhesive films. With policy support, component prices will eventually rise, but terminal demand may decline. It is expected that component prices will oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the introduction of demand - side policies [17] 3.8 Investment Suggestions - Industrial silicon: It is advisable to go long at low prices with higher probability of success but be cautious when chasing long positions [4][18][19] - Polysilicon: Consider going long with a light position and pay attention to the PS2511 - PS2512 reverse arbitrage opportunity around - 2000 yuan/ton [4][19] 3.9 Hot News - GCL Technology completed the first batch of subscriptions. The second batch will be completed on November 7th and 19th. After two rounds, it will receive approximately 5.446 billion Hong Kong dollars (about 5 billion yuan). The funds will be used for polysilicon capacity adjustment, R & D and production of silane gas and related materials, capital structure optimization, and general working capital [20] - The 15,000 - ton/year industrial silicon project in Angola has been fully put into operation. The second - phase project plans to invest 100 million US dollars to produce 200,000 tons of industrial silicon and various alloy materials, and the construction of the first 4 furnaces has started [21] - The US will impose a 68.45% tariff on industrial silicon imports from Angola starting from October 1st, and also impose high tariffs on imports from other countries [21]

周度报告—氧化铝 、smingfTable_Title] 供应过剩成本下行， 氧化铝价格维持偏弱走势 | [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] | 氧化铝：震荡 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 年 | 2025 10 | 月 | 12 | 日 | [Table_Summary] ★ 供应过剩成本下行，氧化铝价格维持偏弱走势 有 色 金 属 原料：上周国内矿石价格暂稳，山西矿 58/5 的含税报价 700 元/ 吨，河南的 58/5 的含税价格为 658 元/吨, 贵州 60/6 铝土矿的到 厂含税价格维持 596 元/吨。环保检查、矿山资源整合等因素一 直在进行，加剧国产矿开采面临的挑战。同时，降雨对矿山开采 影响同样十分显著。国产矿供应短时难以改善，内陆矿石供给进 一步依赖进口矿。进口方面，当前几内亚铝土矿（45/3 规格） 报价约为 72-73 美元/干吨。SMB 四季度报价再跌 1 美元/吨，国 内矿商报价暂无调整，但议价空间扩大。天气转好后的几内亚矿 石发运恢复趋势较为显著。此前因采矿证被吊销暂停出货的矿 企，目前仍处等 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the gold industry is "Oscillation" [1] Core Viewpoints - The price of gold has reached a new high due to multiple positive factors, including the U.S. government shutdown, escalating Sino - U.S. trade frictions, and a weakening U.S. employment market. However, after reaching a new high, the volatility of gold has increased, and there are also some factors that may cause short - term fluctuations [2][3] - In the short term, the price of gold will be in a high - level oscillation, with increased market volatility, and the domestic gold will remain at a discount [4] Summary by Directory 1. Gold High - Frequency Data Weekly Changes - The domestic basis (spot - futures) decreased by 27.3%, and the internal - external futures price difference (internal - external) decreased by 47.5%. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange remained unchanged, while the COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.42%. The SPDR ETF holding volume increased by 0.22%, and the CFTC gold speculative net long position decreased by 1.2% [11] - The U.S. Treasury bond yield decreased by 1.9%, the U.S. dollar index increased by 1.13%, the SOFR decreased by 1.7%, the U.S. 10 - year breakeven inflation rate increased by 0.72%, the S&P 500 index decreased by 2.4%, and the VIX volatility index increased by 30.1% [11] - The gold cross - market arbitrage trading decreased by 0.7%, and the U.S. 10 - year real interest rate decreased by 1.3% [11] 2. Financial Market - Related Data Tracking 2.1 U.S. Financial Market - The U.S. overnight secured financing rate is 4.13%. Oil prices decreased by 2.8%, and the U.S. inflation expectation is 2.35% [17] - The U.S. dollar index increased by 1.28%, and the U.S. Treasury bond yield decreased to 4.03%. The S&P 500 index decreased by 2.43%, and the VIX index increased to 21.66 [19] - The real interest rate decreased to 1.76%, and the gold price increased by 3.4%. The spot commodity index closed down, and the U.S. dollar index increased by 1.28 [20] 2.2 Global Financial Market - Stocks, Bonds, Currencies, and Commodities - Most developed - country stock markets declined, with the S&P 500 index down 2.43%. Most developing - country stock markets also declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.37% [21] - U.S. and German bonds declined, with a U.S. - German yield spread of 1.42%. The yield of UK Treasury bonds is 4.72%, and that of Japanese bonds is 1.688% [24] - The euro depreciated by 1.06%, the pound depreciated by 0.9%, the yen depreciated by 2.52%, and the Swiss franc depreciated by 0.48%. The U.S. dollar index increased by 1.28% to 98.9, and most non - U.S. currencies depreciated [26][29] 3. Gold Trading - Level Data Tracking - The data on the net long position of gold speculation was suspended due to the government shutdown. The SPDR gold ETF holding volume rebounded to 1017 tons [32] - The RMB exchange rate fluctuated, and the discount of Shanghai gold widened. Gold and silver prices rose, and the gold - silver ratio dropped to 78.5 [34] 4. Weekly Economic Calendar - Monday: China's September import - export, credit, and social financing data - Tuesday: U.S. September NFIB Small Business Optimism Index - Wednesday: China's September CPI - Thursday: U.S. September retail sales, October NAHB Housing Market Index, and the Fed's Beige Book on Economic Conditions - Friday: U.S. September new housing starts and building permits [35]

周度报告-外汇期货 d[Table_Title] 中美贸易风波再起，美元高位震荡 [★Ta本bl周e_全Su球mm市a场ry]概述 市场风险偏好下降，股市多数下跌，债券收益率多数下行，美 债收益率回落至 4.03%。美元指数涨 1.28%至 98.9，非美货币悉 数贬值，离岸人民币跌 0.12%，欧元跌 1.06%，英镑跌 0.9%，日 元跌 2.52%，瑞郎跌 0.48%，雷亚尔跌 3.44%，新西兰元、澳 元、贬值约 2%，兰特、韩元、比索 泰铢跌超 1%，金价涨 3.4% 至 4018 美元/盎司，VIX 指数回升至 21.66，现货商品指数收 跌，布油跌 2.8%至 64.48 美元/桶。 外 ★市场交易逻辑 汇 期 货 美国政府在 10 月 1 日正式停摆，两党目前仍然未能就支出达成 一致，15 日军队发薪日成为关键时间节点，随着政府停摆时间 的延长，两党面临的压力都在增加，同时美国 9 月非农就业报 告和首申数据未能如期公布，经济也将受到拖累。中美贸易摩 擦再度升级，中国宣布对稀土出口进行管制后，美国总统特朗 普表示 11 月 1 日起要对中国商品再度加征 100%关税，即将到来 的 APEC 会 ...