1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Financial Markets**: The Fed's internal divergence on the interest - rate cut path is significant. The market is closely watching the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm, and the prices of gold, the US dollar index, and other financial products are affected by the market's expectations of the Fed's policies and actual economic data [15][20]. - **Stock Index Futures**: The real estate sector was boosted by news on July 10, but the policy content is still uncertain. The real estate market needs coordinated efforts on both the supply and demand sides to stabilize. It is recommended to allocate various stock indices evenly [24][25]. - **Bond Market**: The re - balance of fundamentals and risk appetite is the core reason for the recent strength of the stock market and the weakness of the bond market. However, the sustainability of the current trading is not strong. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of laying out medium - term long positions on dips [30]. - **Commodity Markets**: Different commodities have different supply - demand situations. For example, the supply of natural gas has changed from short - supply to balance, and high prices are no longer sustainable; the soybean market is affected by production and export data; the copper market is affected by tariff policies [7][5][6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - **News**: Fed officials have different views on interest - rate cuts and balance - sheet reduction. Gold prices are oscillating and approaching the 60 - day moving average [14][15]. - **Investment Advice**: Gold prices are expected to oscillate in the short term, with the market focusing on the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm and tariff progress [16]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - **News**: The US and the EU have not reached a trade agreement, and the Fed is expected to manage the balance - sheet reduction [17][20]. - **Investment Advice**: The US dollar index is expected to oscillate in the short term [21]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - **News**: Policies to support employment and boost consumption have been introduced. The real estate sector rose on July 10 [22][24]. - **Investment Advice**: It is recommended to allocate various stock indices evenly [25]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - **News**: Fed officials have different views on interest - rate cuts, and the US stock market is affected by economic resilience and interest - rate cut expectations, but there are risks of correction [26][28]. - **Investment Advice**: Be aware of the risk of correction in the US stock market [28]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - **News**: The central bank conducted a 900 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation. The balance of fundamentals and risk appetite affects the stock and bond markets [30]. - **Investment Advice**: Long positions can be held, and attention should be paid to the strategy of buying on dips [31]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - **News**: Brazil's soybean production forecast remains unchanged, and exports are expected to decline in July. The USDA's weekly export sales report met expectations [32][33][34]. - **Investment Advice**: The prices of domestic and foreign futures are expected to oscillate temporarily. Pay attention to the USDA's monthly supply - demand report, the weather in US soybean - producing areas, and Sino - US relations [34]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - **News**: The export of Malaysian palm oil increased in early July, and the inventory increased in June. The market is affected by supply and demand [35][36]. - **Investment Advice**: The report has a limited negative impact on the market. The price of palm oil is expected to oscillate in the third quarter, and it is advisable to allocate long positions on dips [37]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - **News**: The Philippines and Pakistan have introduced policies to ensure sugar supply. Brazil's sugar production in the second half of June is expected to decline [38][39][40]. - **Investment Advice**: The domestic sugar market is expected to oscillate in the short term. Pay attention to the quotation of processed sugar and the resistance level of 5900 yuan [41][42]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - **News**: China's automobile production and sales increased in the first half of the year, and the inventory of steel products decreased slightly [43][44]. - **Investment Advice**: The steel market is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term, and it is recommended to adopt a hedging strategy on rallies [45]. 3.2.5 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - **News**: Indonesia's coal exports decreased in the first five months of 2025. High - temperature weather supports coal prices [46]. - **Investment Advice**: Coal prices are expected to remain stable in July [46]. 3.2.6 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - **News**: China has made breakthroughs in ore exploration in the first half of 2025, and iron ore prices have rebounded with the market sentiment [47][48]. - **Investment Advice**: Do not chase the high price. Pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling on rallies [48][49]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - **News**: The consumption of corn and corn starch in starch - sugar products has changed, and the market demand is not good [50]. - **Investment Advice**: The inventory cycle of starch changes quickly, and there is high uncertainty in the future [50]. 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn) - **News**: The inventory of corn processing enterprises has increased, and the market sentiment is weak, but the price remains stable under the influence of the macro - environment [51][52]. - **Investment Advice**: New - crop short positions can be lightly entered in advance, and continue to pay attention to import auctions and inventory [53]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - **News**: Trump plans to impose a 50% import tariff on copper, including semi - finished products. The LME inventory is an important observation indicator [54][57]. - **Investment Advice**: Shanghai copper is expected to be under pressure at high levels. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [57]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - **News**: The price limit and margin standards of polysilicon futures have been adjusted, and the price of silicon wafers has increased [58]. - **Investment Advice**: It is recommended to wait and see, as the market needs to observe whether the increased prices can be transacted [59]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - **News**: The inventory of industrial silicon decreased slightly on July 10. The production in different regions is expected to change [60]. - **Investment Advice**: Pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling on rallies and manage positions on the left side [61]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - **News**: The LME lead spread is at a discount, a lead smelter has resumed production, and the social inventory has increased [62][63][64]. - **Investment Advice**: Pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips and the Sell Put opportunity below. Consider the internal - external reverse arbitrage opportunity [64]. 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - **News**: The LME zinc spread is at a premium, the zinc mine tender price has been released, and the inventory has increased [65][66]. - **Investment Advice**: Wait and see in the short term. Manage positions for existing short positions and consider the opportunity of mid - term positive arbitrage [67]. 3.2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - **News**: Indonesia's nickel production in the first half of 2025 is far from the quota, and the supply - demand pressure of nickel is still large [68][69]. - **Investment Advice**: Nickel prices are expected to oscillate in a narrow range at a low level in the short term. Consider the opportunity of short - selling on rallies in the medium term [70]. 3.2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - **News**: China's power - battery loading volume increased in the first half of 2025. The market focus is on the demand side [71][72]. - **Investment Advice**: Pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips and positive arbitrage. Avoid short positions for now [72]. 3.2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - **News**: The weekly production of liquefied petroleum gas decreased, and the inventory increased [73][74]. - **Investment Advice**: The price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [75]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Natural Gas) - **News**: The US natural gas inventory increased week - on - week, and the market supply - demand situation has changed [76]. - **Investment Advice**: The Nymex natural gas price is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term [77]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - **News**: The price of caustic soda in Shandong has increased, and the supply and demand have changed [78]. - **Investment Advice**: It is difficult for the price to continue rising after the basis convergence [78]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - **News**: The price of imported wood pulp has shown a rising trend, and the futures price has also increased [79]. - **Investment Advice**: The upward space of pulp prices is limited due to the unchanged supply - demand situation [79]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - **News**: The price of PVC powder has increased, but the inventory has changed from decreasing to increasing [80][81]. - **Investment Advice**: The upward space of PVC prices is limited [81]. 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - **News**: The production and capacity utilization rate of styrene decreased slightly this week [82]. - **Investment Advice**: Wait for the valuation of pure benzene to converge before allocating far - month contracts [83]. 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - **News**: The downstream start - up rate of PTA has decreased, and the demand is weak in the off - season [84][85]. - **Investment Advice**: PTA prices are expected to oscillate slightly stronger in the short term [85]. 3.2.23 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - **News**: The export price of bottle chips has been adjusted, and the factory will implement production cuts in July [86][87]. - **Investment Advice**: Pay attention to the opportunity of expanding the processing fee of bottle chips by rolling on dips [87]. 3.2.24 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - **News**: The renewable energy power consumption responsibility weight for 2025 has been announced, which will affect the green certificate market [88]. - **Investment Advice**: The CEA price is expected to oscillate in the short term [89]. 3.2.25 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - **News**: The inventory of soda ash manufacturers has increased, and the market is oscillating at a low level [90]. - **Investment Advice**: Maintain the view of short - selling on rallies in the medium term [90]. 3.2.26 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - **News**: The inventory of float glass manufacturers has decreased slightly, and the price has increased [91][92]. - **Investment Advice**: Consider the long - glass and short - soda - ash cross - variety arbitrage strategy [92]. 3.2.27 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - **News**: MSC has adjusted its shipping services, and the spot market is mixed [93][94]. - **Investment Advice**: The container freight rate index is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [94].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The container shipping index (European Line) futures have the economic logic basis to be used as a hedging tool for Company B, and can hedge the spot price. The futures price can effectively reflect the fluctuation trend of the spot freight rate, and the spot and futures prices are positively correlated [1][27]. - The supply of the European Line is relatively loose. The peak freight rate in the peak season from July to August is expected to move forward slightly compared with the previous expectation. After that, the downward slope of the freight rate will mainly depend on the scale of blank sailings in August. From September to October, the market will gradually enter the off - season, and the freight rate may decline faster. Considering the Spring Festival in 2026, the peak of the year - end peak season will probably appear in mid - January. Overall, it will maintain a volatile and weak pattern, and attention should be paid to the potential disturbances of geopolitical risks [2]. - To prevent price risk events after locking the forward freight rate with customers, it is recommended that Company B buy container shipping index (European Line) futures contracts when the price drops, and close the futures positions after purchasing the shipping space, so as to make up for the losses caused by the cost increase with the profits in the futures account. It is recommended to buy futures for hedging at low prices for the sold orders [3]. - The hedging business of enterprises requires the close cooperation of multiple departments, and there should be a scientific decision - making process and strict risk control measures [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Feasibility Analysis of Company B's Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Hedging - **Risk Exposures in Different Links of the Shipping Industry Chain**: Upstream shipping companies face the risk of falling forward freight rates and can use selling hedging; mid - stream freight forwarders have two - way risk exposures and can use both buying and selling hedging according to the order cycle; downstream foreign trade enterprises face the risk of rising freight rates and can use buying hedging [14]. - **Analysis of Company B's Risk Exposures**: Company B's risk exposure comes from the time difference between "locking orders and booking cabins", with a large scale of 2500 FEU, concentrated time windows around June and September, complex driving factors dominated by geopolitics, and far - reaching multi - dimensional business conduction effects [17][23]. - **Feasibility Analysis of Company B's Futures Hedging**: The correlation between the WCI Shanghai - Rotterdam container freight rate and the settlement price of the active contract month of the container shipping index (European Line) futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 0.7487, indicating that the futures contract can be used as a hedging tool for Company B, but basis risk should be noted [27]. 3.2. Fundamental Analysis of Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures - **Exceeding Expectations in Demand in the First Half of the Year and Return to Seasonal Normalcy**: From January to April, China's container shipping volume exported to Europe increased by 9% cumulatively. The substitution effect of Asian production capacity for European local production capacity is the core driving force for the strong growth of China - Europe trade. In the short term, China - Europe trade still has support, but the growth rate of cargo volume may converge in the second and third quarters [28]. - **Moderate Increase in the Pressure of Excess Supply on the European Line**: In the second half of the year, the pressure of new ship deliveries remains high. The upper and lower limits of the European Line's weekly capacity have increased, and the market has shifted from oligopoly to oligopolistic competition. The tariff issue between China and the United States may have an impact on the European Line, and port congestion has a limited impact on the supply side [37][42][56]. - **Market Outlook for the Second Half of 2025**: It is expected that the peak freight rate in the peak season from July to August will move forward slightly, and the downward slope of the freight rate after that will depend on the scale of blank sailings in August. From September to October, the freight rate may decline faster. The peak of the year - end peak season will probably appear in mid - January. The European Line will maintain a volatile and weak pattern, and geopolitical risks should be noted [70]. 3.3. Company B's Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Hedging Plan - **Calculation of the Optimal Hedge Ratio**: The optimal hedge ratio is 0.83, and the hedging efficiency can reach 74.2%. The container shipping index (European Line) futures hedging can transfer 61.7% of the risk, and the residual risk mainly comes from the delay in the convergence of spot and futures prices, basis mutations caused by policy shocks, and liquidity premium fluctuations [76][88][101]. - **Impact of Value - Added Tax on Container Freight Rates**: In the hedging operation, the impact of value - added tax is crucial. Company B's value - added tax treatment needs to be comprehensively judged according to the nature of the service, the way of contract signing, and whether it meets the tax - exemption policy. The subsequent plan does not consider the impact of value - added tax [103]. - **Impact of Container Freight Rate Basis**: The container freight rate basis fluctuates significantly, and its core driving factors include supply - demand imbalance, macro and policy shocks, and seasonal demand fluctuations. Basis risk affects the hedging effect, and Company B can optimize the hedging strategy from three aspects [109][110][112]. - **Futures Hedging Strategy**: It is recommended that Company B buy container shipping index (European Line) futures contracts at low prices for the sold orders. For the 400 - 500 FEU in July, it can choose EC08 and EC10 contracts, and the theoretical minimum hedging funds required are about 401.32 million yuan, with a total recommended deposit of about 892.32 million yuan [114][115]. - **Ending Method of Hedging**: The container shipping index (European Line) futures contracts use cash settlement. The hedging position can be closed through reverse operations in the futures market [116]. 3.4. Company B's Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Hedging Risk Control System - **Decision - Making Process of Hedging**: In the market analysis stage, it is necessary to evaluate macro variables, focus on the supply - demand structure of the industry, and combine technical analysis and quantitative tools to verify macro and fundamental conclusions [117]. - **Risk Control Measures for Hedging**: No specific content provided in the given text.

Report Information - Report Title: Key Container Ports and Critical Hubs Monitoring 20250709 [1] - Research Institute: Orient Securities Derivatives Research Institute - Department: Black and Shipping Department - Analyst: Lan Xi - Qualification Number: F03086543 - Investment Consulting Number: Z0016590 Core Viewpoints - In Asia, the superposition of typhoon season and export peak season will continue to put pressure on domestic port operations. The average stay time of ships in Qingdao and Yangshan Port is increasing, and port congestion in South China has slightly worsened. Congestion in Southeast Asia has significantly improved, and port operations are expected to cool down. [4] - In Europe, the previous strikes have continuously affected the operation of Antwerp Port. High - temperature weather, low Rhine water levels, and German railway construction have led to high utilization rates of German port yards and slow ship operations. Summer vacations and labor shortages will increase the risk of congestion in European ports. [4] - In North America, the scale of ships in the ports of the western United States has slightly increased, but the overall congestion is controllable, and the stay time of ships in ports has not significantly extended. [4] Data Summary 1. Port Ship Stay Time | Port Region | Latest Period (hours) | Month - on - Month Change (hours) | Year - on - Year Change (hours) | Monthly Average (hours) | Last Year's Same Period (hours) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Yangshan, China | 53.8 | 4.3 | 24.2 | 49.5 | 29.6 | | Ningbo, China | 42.0 | 1.9 | 4.5 | 40.1 | 37.6 | | Singapore, Southeast Asia | 35.3 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 31.4 | 33.9 | | Port Klang, Southeast Asia | 27.1 | - 22.1 | - 45.3 | 49.2 | 72.3 | | Busan, South Korea | 27.3 | - 4.1 | - 5.1 | 31.4 | 32.4 | | Rotterdam, Northwest Europe | 51.5 | - 6.2 | - 6.2 | 57.7 | 57.7 | | Hamburg, Northwest Europe | 68.6 | 10.1 | 8.9 | 58.6 | 59.8 | | Felixstowe, Northwest Europe | 55.1 | - 4.0 | - 1.0 | 59.1 | 56.1 | | Valencia, Mediterranean | 38.8 | - 3.9 | - 8.9 | 42.7 | 47.8 | | Piraeus, Mediterranean | 53.6 | - 5.0 | 4.4 | 58.5 | 49.2 | | Long Beach, Western US | 101.7 | - 6.9 | - 2.1 | 108.6 | 103.8 | | Los Angeles, Western US | 108.1 | 6.8 | 10.4 | 101.3 | 97.7 | | New York, Eastern US | 48.2 | 4.9 | - 15.1 | 43.3 | 63.3 | | Savannah, Eastern US | 49.0 | 3.3 | - 25.5 | 45.7 | 74.5 | | Santos, South America | 71.5 | 25.4 | - 32.3 | 46.1 | 103.7 | [7] 2. Port Ship Quantity and Waiting/Staying Time - **Asia**: Yangshan Port, Waigaoqiao, Ningbo Port, Qingdao, Singapore Port, and Port Klang have different numbers of ships at anchor/berth and average waiting/staying times. For example, Yangshan Port's average waiting/staying times are 29.6 hours/24.9 hours, and the latest number of ships at anchor/berth is 7/23. [4] - **Europe**: Ports such as Rotterdam, Antwerp, Hamburg, Bremen, and Valencia also have corresponding data. For example, Rotterdam's average waiting/staying times are 12.9 hours/41.4 hours, and the latest number of ships at anchor/berth is 3/29. [4] - **North America**: Ports like Long Beach, Los Angeles, Tacoma, New York, Savannah, Norfolk, and Houston have their own data. For example, Long Beach's average waiting/staying times are 0 hours/116.2 hours, and the number of ships at anchor/berth is 2/26. [4] 3. Large - Ship Arrival and Key Hub Monitoring - The arrival situations of large - scale container ships at ports such as Yangshan Port, Ningbo Port, and Singapore Port are monitored, including different ship - size categories (e.g., 1.2 - 1.7w and 1.7w+). [37] - The arrival situations of 1.2w+ container ships of different alliances (Gemini, OA, PA + MSC) at ports in Asia, Northwest Europe, and the Mediterranean are also monitored. [40][45] - The passage situations of container ships through key hubs such as the Cape of Good Hope, Suez Canal, and Panama Canal are presented, including the number of ships and container throughput. [42]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Short - term price trend is expected to be volatile [16] - Stock Index Futures: Suggest balanced allocation of various stock indices [19] - US Dollar: Short - term volatility is expected [23] - US Stock Index Futures: Be cautious about the risk of correction [26] - Treasury Bond Futures: Long positions can be held, and trading positions should be treated with a volatile mindset [29] - Soybean Meal: Domestic and foreign futures prices are expected to be volatile in the short - term [31] - Live Pigs: Mainly operate with range - bound trading [34] - Rebar/HRC: On the spot side, it is recommended to hedge on rallies [38] - Corn Starch: Future uncertainty is high [39] - Corn: New crop short positions can consider entering the market lightly in advance [42] - Thermal Coal: Prices are expected to remain flat in July [43] - Iron Ore: Look for short - selling opportunities around $100 [44] - Coking Coal/Coke: Pay attention to the sustainability of demand, and the upside space may be limited [46] - Copper: The market is expected to decline in the short - term, with a short - term bearish strategy [50] - Lead: Look for buying opportunities on pullbacks and consider short - put opportunities [52] - Zinc: Look for opportunities to short on rallies and manage positions well [56] - Nickel: In the short - term, it is expected to trade in a narrow range at a low level, and look for short - selling opportunities on rallies in the medium - term [58] - Lithium Carbonate: Pay attention to buying on dips and positive arbitrage opportunities [62] - LPG: Prices are expected to remain weakly volatile with insufficient upward drivers [66] - Crude Oil: Short - term range - bound trading is expected [69] - Styrene: Look for short - selling opportunities on rallies and consider medium - term positive arbitrage opportunities [72] - Caustic Soda: The short - term market is expected to be volatile [74] - Pulp: The market is expected to be volatile [77] - PVC: The subsequent market may have limited upside [78] - Bottle Chips: Look for opportunities to expand processing margins by buying on dips [80] - PX: Short - term volatility adjustment, and the medium - term gap will widen [82] - PTA: Short - term price volatility adjustment, and pay attention to the impact of PX maintenance in the medium - term [84] - Soda Ash: Maintain a view of short - selling on rallies in the medium - term [85] - Float Glass: Consider long glass and short soda ash cross - variety arbitrage [86] - Container Freight Rate: The central price of the market may move up further [87] 2. Core Viewpoints - The market is significantly affected by Trump's tariff policies, which impact the inflation expectations of the Federal Reserve, the risk appetite of the market, and the confidence in terminal demand growth [22][49] - The inflation data in June deviated slightly from expectations, with CPI exceeding expectations and PPI falling short. The overall price level is still low, and the upstream price decline is obvious, but it has little impact on market risk preference [28] - In the commodity market, different varieties have different supply - demand situations. Some are affected by seasonal factors, some by production and inventory changes, and some by policy adjustments [33][43][62] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The 10 - year US Treasury auction data is good, and the Fed's meeting minutes show reduced economic uncertainty. Gold prices oscillated and closed higher, supported near the 60 - day moving average. Short - term gold prices are expected to be volatile [14][15][16] 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The State Council issued new policies to support stable employment. The stock market rose and then fell, with cooling market sentiment but still high trading volume. The core factors are the uncertainty of overseas tariff policies and the mismatch between corporate profit growth and valuation [17][18][19] 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The Fed's meeting minutes show differences among officials in inflation expectations. Trump announced new tariff letters. The US dollar is expected to be volatile in the short - term [21][22][23] 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The EU is urging the US to lift tariffs. The Fed's meeting minutes show differences in interest rate expectations. The US stock market is at a position with insufficient pricing of negative factors, and there is a risk of correction [24][25][26] 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - In June, CPI exceeded expectations and PPI fell short. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations. The bond market is expected to be volatile in the short - term, and long positions can be held [27][28][29] 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The USDA will release the July supply - demand report. Market concerns about trade wars and US soybean exports are increasing. Domestic soybean meal spot is weak. Short - term prices are expected to be volatile [30][31] 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Live Pigs) - New Wufeng's pig sales increased in the first half of the year. In July, the supply is still high, and the demand is gradually recovering, with intensified long - short competition. It is recommended to trade within a range [32][33][34] 3.2.3 Black Metals (Rebar/HRC) - The passenger car market retail sales increased in June. Peru imposed anti - dumping duties on Chinese wire rods. Steel prices are expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to hedge on rallies [35][36][38] 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - Corn starch production and operating rates decreased this week, and inventory increased. The demand is in the off - season, and future uncertainty is high [39] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Port corn inventories decreased. Market sentiment is weak, and it is recommended to short new crop corn lightly in advance [40][41][42] 3.2.6 Black Metals (Thermal Coal) - Due to high - temperature weather, coal demand increased. Although production and transportation were affected by rain, prices are expected to remain flat in July [43] 3.2.7 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - A Russian company invested in an iron ore project. Ore prices rebounded with the black market, but the upside is limited. Look for short - selling opportunities around $100 [44] 3.2.8 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal market in the southwest is stable. The market is affected by macro factors, and the upside space may be limited [45][46] 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - A mining company's copper production increased. Argentina adjusted mining policies. Chile is waiting for US communication on copper tariffs. Copper prices are expected to decline in the short - term [47][48][50] 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead spread is in contango. A lead mine may enter the Chinese market in the third - quarter. Lead prices are expected to rise gradually, and look for buying opportunities on pullbacks [51][52] 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc spread is in contango. A zinc mine plans to expand production. Zinc prices are expected to be volatile, and look for short - selling opportunities on rallies [53][55][56] 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - An Indonesian company acquired a nickel mine stake. Nickel prices are expected to trade in a narrow range at a low level in the short - term, and look for short - selling opportunities on rallies in the medium - term [57][58] 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - New lithium ore was discovered in Hunan, and a lithium project in Zimbabwe restarted. Lithium carbonate prices are expected to rise, and pay attention to buying on dips and positive arbitrage opportunities [60][61][62] 3.2.14 Energy Chemicals (LPG) - India plans to increase LPG imports from the US. US C3 inventory increased. LPG prices are expected to be weakly volatile [63][64][66] 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Kazakhstan plans to maintain current production until the end of the year. US EIA crude inventory increased. Oil prices are expected to trade in a range in the short - term [67][68][69] 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - Styrene port inventory increased. Pure benzene is expected to reduce inventory in July - August, but downstream profit margins have decreased. Look for short - selling opportunities on rallies [69][70][72] 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The caustic soda market in Shandong is stable. The decline in caustic soda prices has basically ended, and the market is expected to be volatile in the short - term [73][74] 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp is mostly stable. The market is expected to be volatile [75][77] 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - PVC prices rose, but the fundamentals are weakening. The subsequent market may have limited upside [78] 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - Bottle chip factory prices are stable. The industry plans to reduce production in July, and pay attention to opportunities to expand processing margins [79][80] 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (PX) - PX prices rebounded slightly. In the short - term, it will be volatile, and the medium - term gap will widen [81][82] 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - PTA spot basis is stable. Demand is under pressure in the short - term, and pay attention to the impact of PX maintenance in the medium - term [83][84] 3.2.23 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - Soda ash prices are volatile. With high inventory levels, it is recommended to short on rallies in the medium - term [85] 3.2.24 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - Float glass prices are stable. The market is expected to be volatile, and a long - glass short - soda - ash arbitrage strategy is recommended [86] 3.2.25 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - Container freight rates are expected to rise, but there are also negative factors [87]

日度报告——综合晨报 特朗普称 8 月 1 日加征关税不会延期，且威 胁对铜加税 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-07-09 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 特朗普放话称 8 月 1 日关税最后期限不会延期 特朗普表态关税期限不会延期，这使得市场风险偏好受到一定 影响，市场预期有所变化， 宏观策略（美国股指期货） 特朗普称将实施 50%铜关税、药品和半导体关税在望 行业关税压力加大，与日本、欧盟谈判不确定性仍存，美股盘 中窄幅震荡。 综 农产品（豆油/菜油/棕榈油） 合 印度尼西亚：受关税威胁影响 对美国棕榈油出口预计下滑 晨 消息面扰动频发，棕榈油大幅增产上行 报 黑色金属（铁矿石） Ferrexpo 二季度铁矿石生产承压运行 尽管工业品情况较高，但黑色现实基本面压力下难以推动大幅 反弹。进入淡季之后，终端钢坯和长材累库速度有所加快。短 期矿价维持震荡，关注焦煤估值修复力度。 有色金属（多晶硅） 今日市场多晶硅预期价格大幅上调 政策端博弈性强，操作风险高，建议观望。 | 黄玉萍 | 资深分析师 | （农产品） | | --- | --- | --- | | 从业资格号： [Table_Ana ...

套利月报-化工 6 月以来，能源端大幅波动。受伊以冲突的影响，国际原油价格 剧烈波动，先是从 65 美元/桶快速飙升至接近 80 美元/桶，随后 又大幅回落至 67 美元/桶；国内动力煤价格在经历了前期的持续 下滑后终于在夏季高温天迎来了企稳。同期，化工整体走势基本 跟随原油大幅波动。 能 源 化 工 6 月化工库存涨跌互现。其中 PTA、烧碱、PVC、短纤和 EG 去 库较为明显，瓶片和尿素累库相对明显。6 月化工估值变化有限。 其中 EB 和 PX 估值扩张相对明显，主要还是受益于原油的大幅 波动。6 月化工产量环比涨跌互现。其中比较值得关注的是 PX 和 EB，在利润修复的背景下，其产量持续扩张。前 5 月多数化 工品表需走势分化。其中玻璃、纯碱和 PVC 表需负增长相对明显。 而 EB、MEG、尿素和 PE 表需则呈现出大幅增长的态势。 ★跨品种套利 玻璃-纯碱 09 套利：光伏玻璃减产已在进行中，后续纯碱需求将 有所承压。而供应已明显收缩且持续高基差的玻璃或相对抗跌。 建议关注多玻璃空纯碱套利。 瓶片-PTA-乙二醇跨品种套利：瓶片行业自律减产已在进行中， 目前来看长期加工费低于企业现金流不可持续， ...

日度报告——综合晨报 美国总统特朗普宣布关税再度延期 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-07-08 宏观策略（美国股指期货） 特朗普公布对日韩及其他 12 个国家的关税，截止日期为 8 月 关税期限再度延期，但谈判进展缓慢，市场维持避险情绪，三 大股指录得下跌。 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） Kevin Warsh：美联储应降息 关税不会导致通胀 特朗普再度开启极限关税施压，全球市场风险偏好走低，美元 指数反弹，避险资产回升。 综 宏观策略（国债期货） 合 央行开展了 1065 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作 晨 报 资金面均衡是支撑债市走强的最核心因素，看多债市的观点仍 未发生变化，但债市直接突破或存在难度。 农产品（豆粕） 美豆优良率持平于 66% 美豆优良率 66%，和前一周持平，周度出口检验报告符合市场 预期，市场密切关注美国与各国关税谈判情况。国内进口大豆 到港充裕、油厂保持高开机令豆粕库存加速累积。 黑色金属（螺纹钢/热轧卷板） 今年以来全球新船订单总量同比下降 54% 钢价震荡小幅回落，短期基本面虽然较为坚挺，但部分现货需 求来自前期空单回补。此外市场对于外需风险的关注度依然较 高，叠 ...

周度报告——光伏玻璃 供应端持续减产，光伏玻璃行业深陷亏损 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025 年 7 月 7 日 ★光伏玻璃基本面周度表现（截至 2025/7/4 当周）： 截至 7 月 4 日，国内光伏玻璃 2.0mm 镀膜（面板）主流价格为 10.5 元/平米，环比上周下跌；3.2mm 镀膜主流价格为 18 元/平 米，环比上周持平。当前光伏玻璃价格创历史新低，市场竞争加 剧。 能 随着行业价格持续下行，利润大幅亏损倒逼光伏玻璃厂家开始加 速减产。基于行业呼吁，龙头企业于七月初带头行动。上周有五 条光伏玻璃产线冷修，一个窑炉堵口。预计本周行业减产将持续， 计划减产窑炉 1-2 座，不排除有计划外减产的情况。 源 化 上周需求端订单表现一般，周初厂家发货节奏较缓，新月需求并 不乐观。短期需求端难以有较快恢复，供大于需局面将延续。 工 目前光伏玻璃行业库存持续上行，虽然行业减产仍在继续，但由 于需求端短期难以有较快恢复，供大于需局面依然存在，本周库 存预计将继续上行。 上周行业毛利润继续下滑，亏损程度进一步加深。近期行业累库 压力逐步加剧，部分企业低价加速抢单出货，光伏玻璃利润水平 持续下滑。 ★ ...

热点报告——纯苯 纯苯期货合约要点及上市策略建议 ★纯苯期货合约要点及交割注意事项 ①为了与交割单位对应，便于交割入出库时更容易组合成整车、船 运输（纯苯主流罐车容量 30 吨/车，船 3000 吨/船或 6000 吨/船）， 纯苯期货合约交易单位（30 吨/手）大幅大于苯乙烯期货合约，注意 套保比例问题。②纯苯主力合约为连续换月，与 PX 主力合约 1/5/9 存在差异，芳烃内部套利时注意远月流动性。③纯苯交割质量中的 结晶点要求为大于等于 5.45℃（对应石油苯-545）。煤制加氢苯所有 指标如果均符合交割质量标准，也可以作为标准交割品参与交割。 ④江浙沪为基准交割地，山东贴水 50 元/吨，福建、广东升贴水为 0， 天津、河北、安徽贴水 120 元/吨，辽宁贴水 200 元/吨。 能 ★纯苯上市策略建议 源 化 工 ①绝对价格维度：按照新交所对应纯苯远月合约锚定，折算明年 3 月华东纯苯价格约在 5900 元/吨附近；但若按照当前国内华东纯苯现 货价格+远月纸货升水结构测算，则对应华东远月价格或在6000-6100 元/吨附近，但按目前区域升贴水看，盘面与华东存在折价可能。当 下市场主流预期为纯苯格局边 ...

日度报告——综合晨报 中国住建部称将更大力度推动房地产市场止 跌回稳 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-07-07 宏观策略（黄金） 美国财长贝森特：贸易谈判的最后阶段出现僵局 周五金价震荡微跌，美国独立日休市海外市场交易较为清淡， 市场聚焦关税暂缓期到期后美国对等关税落地情况，9 日前仍有 谈判在推进，主要是欧盟和日本还未与美国达成协议。 宏观策略（股指期货） 住建部：更大力度推动房地产市场止跌回稳 综 合 近期股市情绪持续升温，新题材涌现，使得市场顶住高估压力 持续上涨。这种单边堰塞湖的状态，后续需要基本面回升来夯 实行情。此外海外关税扰动仍不可忽视 晨 宏观策略（国债期货） 报 央行开展了 340 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作 展望下周，预计资金面仍然偏松，债市做多动能继续积累，但 长端品种突破尚需等待。 农产品（豆油/菜油/棕榈油） Mysteel 数据：全国主要油厂大豆压榨预估调查统计 45Z 税收抵免通过，关注 7 月 8 日听证会。 黑色金属（螺纹钢/热轧卷板） 6 月下旬重点钢企钢材库存量 1545 万吨 反内卷政策预期带动钢价偏强，基本面仍有支撑，五大品种库 存并未进一步累积。但随着 ...