热点报告—锌 [★Ta宏bl观e_面Su：mm宏a观ry]利多阶段性出清，关税缓和递延需求走弱预期 关税缓和有几率带动锌终端需求发动新一轮抢出口，需求走弱预 期将有所递延。但即便排除关税，海外反倾销举措、买单出口等 因素依然会对锌下游出口形成压制。国内降准降息落地后，到下 一次联储降息前或存在政策真空期，宏观利多基本阶段性出清。 利多阶段性出清，基本面拐点将至 ★供应端：国内供应维持偏强释放预期 有 色 金 1Q25 海外出矿表现较好，大型项目和新项目增复产相对顺利， 部分海外炼厂进行主动减产，后续或有更多锌矿能流入国内。按 现有原料库存来估算，即便炼厂维持 4 月高位产量，矿端也难在 三季度中期前出现明显紧缺。在原料充裕和利润修复的双重支撑 下，炼厂具有较强的开工动能，预计 5 月下旬锌锭产量将有所修 复，且比价打开时间和幅度略超预期，后续或有更多进口锌流入。 属 ★需求端：内需承压预期递延而非消除 宏观来看，目前锌需求处于季节性走弱过程中。中观来看，新增 专项债实际发行规模和速度不及预期，基建实物工作量表现偏弱 且后续增量有限，关税缓和对耐用消费品的提振仍需持续观察。 微观来看，下游厂商受关税缓和刺激和担 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Geneva economic and trade talks between China and the US reached a tariff consensus, with both sides significantly reducing tariff levels, leading to a notable increase in market risk appetite [1][17]. - The progress of Sino - US trade negotiations has had a wide - ranging impact on various financial and commodity markets, including changes in prices and market sentiment [2][5]. - The long - term bullish logic of the bond market remains unchanged, and the impact of the easing of trade conflicts is mainly concentrated on the expected level [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Fed official Goolsbee believes tariffs will still cause stagflation. Gold prices continued to decline by over 3%, as the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations exceeded expectations, geopolitical military conflicts weakened, and market risk aversion eased [2][12]. - Short - term gold prices are under pressure and are expected to have further downward space [14]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump's "grand tax - cut bill" plans to cut taxes by over $4 trillion in the next decade and reduce spending by at least $1.5 trillion. Trump hinted at possibly participating in the Russia - Ukraine leaders' talks [15][16]. - The US dollar index is expected to rise in the short term due to the Sino - US tariff consensus and increased market risk appetite [17][18]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Fed Governor Kugler believes that Trump's tariff policy may still push up inflation and drag down economic growth. The Sino - US economic and trade joint statement significantly reduced bilateral tariff levels [19][21]. - The short - term strength of US stocks is supported by the easing of tariff negotiations, but there may be fluctuations in the subsequent negotiation process [21]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The Sino - US economic and trade talks made significant progress, and the central bank conducted 43 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations [22][23]. - The long - term bullish logic of the bond market remains unchanged. It is recommended to adopt a strategy of buying on dips [23][24]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - The USDA May report shows that the ending stocks of US cotton in 25/26 will increase slightly, and the global ending stocks will remain flat, with a bearish impact on the international cotton market [4][27]. - After the Sino - US consultations, Zhengzhou cotton may fluctuate after a short - term bullish boost. It is necessary to pay attention to the progress of domestic cotton commercial inventory depletion and Sino - US trade negotiations [29]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The USDA May report shows that the ending stocks of US soybeans in 25/26 are significantly lower than expected, and the soybean planting rate is higher than expected. The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills has increased [30][31]. - The easing of Sino - US relations will lead to a situation of weak domestic and strong foreign markets, and soybean meal spot prices will remain under pressure [32]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The spot price of corn starch remains high and firm. It is recommended to wait and see due to the complex influencing factors of the CS - C spread [33]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The spot prices of wheat and corn have risen. It is recommended to hold long positions in the 07 contract and positive spreads in 7 - 9 and 7 - 11 contracts [34][35]. 3.2.5 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The price of coking coal in the Changzhi market fluctuates. The short - term price of coking coal may stabilize with the improvement of the macro - environment, but the medium - and long - term fundamentals remain unchanged [36][37]. 3.2.6 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The Sino - US trade negotiation progress drove up steel prices. The sales volume of excavators in April increased year - on - year, and the production and sales of automobiles from January to April exceeded 10 million for the first time [5][39]. - Steel prices are expected to continue the rebound pattern in the near future, and it is recommended to avoid short positions in the short term [41][42]. 3.2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - High - grade silver - copper ore was discovered in Ireland's Ballywire multi - metal mine. Yunnan Copper plans to buy a 40% stake in Liangshan Mining [42][43]. - The Sino - US tariff reduction is beneficial to copper prices, but the weakening fundamentals will limit the increase. Short - term copper prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level [6][45]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The social inventory of lead ingots shows a slight downward trend. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to high - level internal - external positive spreads [48][49]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The production of zinc by Zijin Mining in the first quarter decreased, while New Century's zinc concentrate production increased. The inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions increased [50][52]. - Zinc has the value of short - selling allocation. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds and high - level option selling opportunities [53]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - There are rumors that leading enterprises plan to control production and support prices. It is recommended to pay attention to changes in the supply side and the possibility of demand exceeding expectations from May to June [55][56]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The production of 97 - grade silicon continues to decrease. It is recommended to partially stop profits on previous short positions and not to buy on the left side [57]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The installed capacity of power batteries in April increased year - on - year. Short - term fundamentals are mixed, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds in the medium - and long - term [58][59]. 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Indonesian nickel enterprises are preparing for the potential impact of the Philippine nickel ore export ban. The price of nickel is expected to fluctuate within the range of 122,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton [60][62]. 3.2.14 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The reduction of China's import tariffs on the US has a positive impact on the international LPG market. Long - term FEI price increase momentum may be insufficient, and policy changes should be closely monitored [64]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Iraq may cut oil exports slightly. The improvement of market risk appetite supports short - term oil prices, but supply - side risks still exist [65][66]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The spot price of PTA increased, and the basis strengthened. PTA is expected to be volatile and strong in the short term [67][68]. 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The inventory accumulation of asphalt has slowed down. The futures price of asphalt is expected to rise in an oscillatory manner [69][70]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The sowing progress of spring crops in Sichuan is over half. The urea market is expected to focus on exports, and the 9/1 spread is in a positive spread pattern in the short - to - medium - term [71][73]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The inventory of styrene in East China ports decreased. Short - term styrene may continue to rebound, and the medium - term depends on the recovery of 3S orders [74][76]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong is rising, and the inventory is low. The short - term caustic soda futures price is expected to be strong [77][78]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp shows a differentiated trend. The reduction of Sino - US tariffs may drive the pulp futures price to rebound [79][81]. 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The price of PVC in the domestic market slightly decreased. The reduction of Sino - US tariffs may drive the PVC price to rebound [82][83]. 3.2.23 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotes of bottle chip factories have increased. Due to supply pressure, the processing fee of bottle chips is expected to remain low [84][86]. 3.2.24 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The inventory of soda ash manufacturers decreased slightly. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium - term and pay attention to the impact of maintenance on the 09 contract in the short - term [87]. 3.2.25 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in the Guangdong market remained stable. The glass futures price is expected to remain low, and attention should be paid to real - estate policy changes [88].

周度报告——新能源汽车 2025 年第 18 周（2025 年 4 月 28 日至 5 月 4 日），乘用车 零售 42.0 万辆，同比增长 17.6%；新能源乘用车零售 20.3 万辆， 同比增长 38.4%；新能源渗透率为 48.4%，同比去年同期 41.2% 提高了 7.2 个百分点，环比上周 53.0%下落了 4.6 个百分点。 今年以来，乘用车累计零售 687.4 万辆，同比增长 4.0%；新 能源乘用车累计零售 334.7 万辆，同比增长 32.5%；累计新能源 渗透率为 48.7%。 能 ★ 重点新能源车企销量分析 源 与 新 材 料 车企层面来看，2025 年第 18 周，比亚迪周销量 6.5 万辆， 在乘用车市场的占有率约为 15.5%，在新能源汽车市场中占有率 约为 32.0%。其他新能源销量较高的车企包括：吉利汽车 2.2 万 辆、上汽通用五菱 1.2 万辆、长安汽车 1.1 万辆、奇瑞汽车 0.7 万辆、特斯拉（中国）销量 0.7 万辆。在新势力梯队中，理想汽 车销量约 1.1 万辆，问界销量约 0.7 万辆，零跑、小米、小鹏销 量约 0.6 万辆，蔚来销量约 0.5 万辆，埃安销量约 ...

周度报告——光伏玻璃 5 月份新月价格较 4 月有一定幅度下滑，行业低价产品较前期有 所增多。随着后续供需差进一步扩大，光伏玻璃价格仍存在下行 风险。 供增需减背景下，光伏玻璃价格走弱 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025 年 5 月 12 日 ★光伏玻璃基本面周度表现（截至 2025/5/9 当周）： 截至 5 月 9 日，国内光伏玻璃 2.0mm 镀膜（面板）主流价格为 13.5 元/平米，环比上周下跌；3.2mm 镀膜主流价格为 21.5 元/ 平米，亦环比上周下跌。 五一假期期间有一条产线保窑，暂不出产品。预计本周有 1-2 条 前期新投产线将引头子出玻璃，行业产量呈上行趋势。目前来看， 短期内暂无企业存在新投产计划。 能 源 五一假期后组件端表现偏弱，随着光伏抢装需求快速退潮，5 月 组件排产计划迎来下调，行业进入深度调整期，对于光伏玻璃消 费相应减少。 化 工 进入 5 月份，随着光伏玻璃供给量回升至高位，而需求较 4 月整 体有所下滑，供需差进一步加大，行业库存开始呈上行趋势。预 计本周行业需求难有好转，且不排除组件端持续减产的可能，光 伏玻璃厂家走货压力或进一步加大。 ★ 供需分析： ...

日度报告——综合晨报 中美贸易谈判预计取得进展，美联储强调稳 定通胀重要性 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-05-12 宏观策略（黄金） 4 月中国 CPI 同比降 0.1%，PPI 同比降 2.7% 综 合 在散户交投活跃度高涨、消息面驱动的背景下，通胀压力和企 业业绩压力被市场忽视。当前市场估值水平已经修复至历史中 值附近，已经难言便宜，行情持续冲高将逐渐积累风险。 晨 宏观策略（美国股指期货） 报 美联储威廉姆斯强调稳定通胀重要 中美关税谈判达成共识，有望进行进一步谈判，对短期风险偏 好构成支持，美国股指期货涨幅近 1%。 黑色金属（动力煤） 2025 年 3 月日本煤炭进口 1237.98 万吨 中美贸易谈判取得进展 金价周五走势震荡表现偏弱，中美高层贸易谈判取得进展推动 金价周一开盘走低，关税问题和地缘军事冲突短期存在改善空 间，黄金短期仍有回调空间。 宏观策略（股指期货） 五一后，港口动力煤库存爆仓，煤价再度失守，港口 5500K 报 价约 645 元，前期 650 元支撑位跌破。关注 5 月份后火电日耗增 速以及国内煤矿开工率变化，或在此轮急跌后供 农产品（玉米） 中央气象台 5 ...

金工策略周报 东证衍生品研究院金融工程组 2025年5月11日 王冬黎 金融工程首席分析师（国债期货） 从业资格号： F3032817 投资咨询号： Z0014348 Email: dongli.wang@orientfutures.com 常海晴 金融工程高级分析师(股指期货) 从业资格号：F03087441 投资咨询号：Z0019497 Email: haiqing.chang@orientfutures.com 李晓辉 金融工程首席分析师（CTA） 从业资格号： F03120233 投资咨询号： Z0019676 Email: Xiaohui.li01@orientfutures.com 联系人 徐凡 金融工程分析师(FOF、基本面量化) 从业资格号： F03107676 Email: qinxuan.fan@orientfutures.com 股指期货量化策略跟踪 常海晴 金融工程高级分析师(股指期货) 从业资格号：F03087441 投资咨询号：Z0019497 Email: haiqing.chang@orientfutures.com 2 主要内容 ★股指期货行情简评： 3 市场呈现上涨趋势。分 ...

周度报告—碳酸锂 、smingfTable_Title] 资源端暂无有效抵抗， 盘面增仓屡创新低 [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] 碳酸锂：震荡 报告日期： 2025 年 5 月 11 日 [Table_Summary] ★资源端暂无有效抵抗，盘面增仓屡创新低 有 上周锂盐价格加速下挫。LC2505 收盘价环比-4%至 6.30 万元/吨， LC2507 收盘价环比-4.5%至 6.30 万元/吨；SMM 电池级（99.5%）、 工业级（99.2%）碳酸锂现货均价环比-4.0%、-3.9%至 6.53、6.36 万元/吨；溧阳中联金碳酸锂近月合约收盘价环比-3.5%至 6.4 万 元/吨。周内氢氧化锂价格亦偏弱运行，SMM 粗颗粒及微粉型电 池级氢氧化锂均价环比-1.9%、-1.8%至 6.63、7.15 万元/吨。电工 价差环比略收窄至 0.17 万元/吨。电池级氢氧化锂较电池级碳酸 锂价格由此前的贴水转为升水 0.1 万元/吨。 色 金 属 据智利海关，4 月智利共出口碳酸锂及氢氧化锂 2.44 万吨，环比 +6%，同比-15%；其中对中国出口 1.55 万吨，环比-6.3%，同比 -32%。1-4 月 ...

周度报告-玉米&玉米淀粉 [Table_Title] 价格上涨尚未引发大量新增供应，库存预计将 持续趋紧 | [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] | 玉米&玉米淀粉：看涨 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 月 日 | 年 | 5 | 11 | [Table_Analyser] | ★[Ta玉ble米_Summary] 一周复盘：深加工企业保持亏损、提价促收的状态，但到车依旧未 能有效增加，其原料库存依旧下滑。东北外流量继续增加，北港库 存继续下滑，不过由于今年做套保的贸易商明显增加，北港库存下 降偏慢，玉米仓单也增加明显。华北地区在经历了较长时间的干旱 之后，河南发布干热风预警，小麦受干旱的影响或升级。 下周观点： 农 产 品 现货的上涨尚未引发大量的新增供应，产需缺口预计仍未缩减，现 货预计将继续走强。在更多支撑库存结转偏紧的碎片化证据出现之 前，套保压力以及拍卖的担忧或会抑制期货价格的上涨势头。已入 场的 07 多单、7-9 正套、7-11 正套策略建议继续持有。若进口拍卖 启动，数量预计不会超预期，主要关注其成交 ...

周度报告-黄金 贸易问题短期缓和，黄金冲高回落 | [走Ta势bl评e_级Ra：nk] | | | 黄金：看跌 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 | 年 | 5 月 | 11 | 日 | [★Ta市bl场e_综Su述mm：ary] 伦敦金反弹 2.6%至 3325 美元/盎司。10 年期美债收益率 4.38%，通 胀预期 2.31%，实际利率微升至 2.06%，美元指数涨 0.31%至 100.3， 标普 500 指数跌 0.47%，离岸人民币小跌，沪金维持较高溢价。 贵 金 属 金价波动增加，关税问题仍然是市场交易核心所在，特朗普表示将 对美国以外生产的电影加征 100%关税，叠加地缘军事冲突升温，国 内资金节后抄底增加，推动黄金再度突破 3400 美元/盎司。但随后 美联储 5 月利率会议按兵不动表态偏鹰，以及英国和美国达成贸 易协议，黄金高位回落，日内波动幅度加大。中美高层瑞士举行 会谈，此前的关税无法正常贸易，因而双方均有降低关税到能贸 易的水平的意愿，关税问题边际上存在改善空间，短期对黄金不 利，但中长期维度贸易不会 ...

周度报告——商品期权 商品期权周报：商品隐波高位回落 报告日期： 2025 年 5 月 11 日 ★ 商品期权市场活跃度 | 吴奇翀 | 产业咨询资深分析师 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格号： | F03103978 | | 投资咨询号： | Z0019617 | | Tel： | 8621-63325888 | | Email： | qichong.wu@orientfutures.com | 联系人： 本周（2025.5.5-2025.5.9）商品期权市场成交较节前有所恢复， 日均成交量为 551.51 万手，日均持仓量为 780.00 万手，环比 变化分别为+21.28%和+18.18%。分品种来看，本周日均成交 活跃的品种主要包括 PTA（70 万手）、纯碱（40 万手）、玻 璃（40 万手）。此外，本周共有 5 个品种成交增长超过 100%， 成交量增长较为显著的品种为多晶硅（+376%）、烧碱 （+151%）以及碳酸锂（+146%）。与此同时，成交量下降 较为明显的品种则有对二甲苯（-99%）。从持仓量数据来看， 本周日均持仓量较高的品种为豆粕（74 万手）、玻璃（70 万手）和纯碱 ...