Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "oscillation" [5] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Market risk appetite remains high, with most global stock markets rising and bond yields mostly increasing. The US dollar index has risen, non - US currencies have mixed performances, gold prices have fallen, and Brent crude oil prices have increased. The US's actions in Venezuela have short - term impacts on the market, and the geopolitical situation is heating up, which will lead to continued high volatility in the global market in the future [1][9][35] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Global Market This Week Overview - Market risk appetite is high. Most stock markets rise, bond yields mostly increase, and the US Treasury yield reaches 4.19%. The US dollar index rises 0.46% to 98.4. Non - US currencies have mixed performances. Gold prices fall 4.4% to $4332 per ounce, the VIX index slightly rises to 14.5, the spot commodity index falls, and Brent crude oil rises 0.9% to $60.8 per barrel [1][9] 2. Market Trading Logic and Asset Performance 2.1 Stock Market - Global stock markets mostly rise, with the US stock market falling and the A - share market slightly rising. The S&P 500 index falls 1.03%, the Shanghai Composite Index rises 0.13%, and the Hang Seng Index rises 2.01%. The Fed's December interest - rate meeting minutes show a large divergence between doves and hawks on the prospect of interest - rate cuts. The uncertainty of future interest - rate cuts and inflation risks affect the market. The end - of - year PMI in China exceeds expectations, and the first - batch of national subsidy funds in 2026 support the stock market [10][11][13] 2.2 Bond Market - Global bond market yields mostly increase, and the US Treasury yield reaches 4.19%. The 10 - year US Treasury yield rises to 4.19%. Factors such as limited future interest - rate hike space, expected inflation recovery, and the Fed's purchase of short - term bonds cause the 10 - year US Treasury yield to be more likely to rise. The Chinese 10 - year Treasury yield rises to 1.855%, and the Sino - US interest - rate differential inversion slightly widens [14][18][21] 2.3 Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index rises 0.46% to 98.4, and non - US currencies have mixed performances. The offshore RMB rises 0.49%, the euro falls 0.45%, the pound falls 0.3%, etc [26][28][29] 2.4 Commodity Market - Gold falls 4.4% to $4332 per ounce, and Brent crude oil rises 0.93% to $60.8 per barrel. After the New Year's Day holiday, precious metals correct, and the adjustment of the Bloomberg commodity index weight may bring short - term selling pressure. The situation in Venezuela causes supply - side disturbances in oil prices, and the spot commodity index falls [30][32] 3. Hot - Spot Tracking - The US launches a lightning strike on Venezuela. The military action is completed quickly, which is beneficial to the Trump administration. It may lead to a short - term strengthening of the US dollar index but does not change the medium - term downward trend. Geopolitical risks increase, and global market volatility will continue [34][35][36] 4. Next Week's Important Event Prompts - Key events include China's December CPI, the US December non - farm payrolls, ISM manufacturing PMI, and other important data releases. Maduro may appear in court in the US on the 5th [37]

周度报告-国债期货 [Table_Rank] 走势评级： 国债：震荡 报告日期： 2026 年 01 月 04 日 [Table_Summary] ★一周复盘：国债期货大幅下跌 本周（12.29-01.04）国债期货大幅下跌。周一，市场消息面平 静，市场较为担忧明年供给放量，长端品种大幅下跌，短端品 种相对稳定。周二，市场消息面平静，债市成交清淡，超长品 种期现均走强，曲线中端品种表现相对较弱。周三，12 月制造 业 PMI 超预期回升，国债期货快速下跌。午后市场情绪有所改 善，国债期货部分收复跌幅。截至 12 月 31 日收盘，两年、五 年、十年和三十年期国债期货主力合约结算价分别为 102.446、 105.730、107.825 和 111.380 元，分别较上周末变动-0.100、- 0.300、-0.455 和-1.470 元。 ★费率新规落地，但债市利空未出尽 费率新规落地，但债市利空未出尽 9-12 月，市场因担忧费率新规超预期，机构赎回意愿相对较 强，市场动辄出现大幅下跌，随着正式稿件的落地，债市应出 现快速上涨。但费率新规落地并不能扭转债市的空头情绪。近 期债市走弱的原因是较为复杂的，基本面 ...

年度报告——尿素 云图等 662 万吨/年产能，产能增速将维持在 8%附近。技改项目的 顺利推进则减少了煤制装置可出清量级，气头装置则需要更长时间 的负利润才能产生挤出效应，因此即使额外考虑产能置换及落后产 能淘汰预期，明年产能增速也将在 6%以上。而动力煤价格明年预计 持稳运行，煤制尿素装置开工或维持 90%附近。整体来看，我们预 计 2026 年全年尿素产量将达到 7650 万吨，同比增速约为 6.64%。 能 ★内需增长中枢下移，出口政策宽松力度亟待加码 源 化 工 今年尿素及其下游复合肥/三聚氰胺等的产销数据验证了我们此前 做出的尿素中长期需求增速下移判断，明年我们预期尿素需求增速 放缓至 3%左右。一方面，农业需求或延续温和增长，粮食作物种植 面积增长继续放缓，比价优势可提供的额外增量空间相对有限，增 量将主要源于高标准农田建设的逐步推进。另一方面，工业需求预 计不温不火，地产竣工端仍将对脲醛树脂等需求形成拖累，脱硝端 的替代潜力已消耗殆尽，且新能源对火电的结构性替代仍在深化。 而在国内供应过剩压力加大的背景下，通过加大出口调节力度来保 障国内尿素生产稳定、价格稳定将是极大概率事件，我们预计将继 续 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating of manganese silicon/silicon iron is "Oscillating" [7] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The ferroalloy industry will continue to face over - capacity in 2026, with planned new capacity additions. The industry's supply elasticity is high, and profit recovery will stimulate supply. Manganese ore cost provides some support for manganese silicon, and the demand for magnesium metal offers marginal support for silicon iron. With expected electricity price cuts in 2026, overall cost support will weaken, and ferroalloy prices are likely to remain weak [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. 2025 Ferroalloy Market Review - **Manganese Silicon**: The market showed a rise - then - fall pattern in 2025. In Q1, manganese ore price increases drove up costs and prices, followed by a decline due to increased supply and weak demand. In Q2, there was a rebound and then a fall. In Q3, prices strengthened with cost support, and in Q4, the market entered a weak - oscillating phase [14] - **Silicon Iron**: The market trended downwards in 2025. In Q1, weak demand and supply contraction led to a lack of price support. In Q2, cost reduction and weak demand pushed prices down. In Q3, cost increases drove up prices, and in Q4, the market declined again due to cost weakening and supply pressure [17] 2. Manganese Silicon: Continuous Capacity Expansion, Weakening Cost Support 2.1 Manganese Ore Support Limited, Electricity Price Declining - **Manganese Ore Supply Recovery, Limited Price Support**: In 2025, manganese ore prices first rose, then fell, and finally oscillated. The increase in Q1 was due to reduced Gabonese ore arrivals and concentrated cargo rights. After Q2, supply increased, and prices stabilized. China's manganese ore imports increased by 11% in 2025. In 2026, the supply increase will mainly come from South32's recovery, with an expected net import increase of 300,000 - 400,000 tons [25][26][35] - **Port Manganese Ore Inventory Rising from Low Levels**: In 2025, port inventory decreased in H1 and increased in H2. In 2026, inventory accumulation is expected to be limited. High ferromanganese slag production also affected inventory [41] - **Other Costs Weakening**: In 2026, coking coal prices are expected to have a bottom - up but limited - upside trend. Electricity prices are likely to decline due to the increase in new energy capacity, with a potential reduction of 2 - 3 cents per kWh in Northwest China [56] 2.2 New Capacity Coming into Operation - The manganese silicon industry is over - capacity, but low - electricity - price regions like Inner Mongolia have cost advantages, leading to continuous capacity expansion. In 2026, the planned new capacity is about 2.8632 million tons, and supply will increase [58] 2.3 Manganese Silicon Supply - Demand Summary and Balance Sheet - **Supply**: Supply will increase in 2026 due to new capacity in low - cost regions [72] - **Cost**: The cost - reduction pressure mainly comes from electricity prices, with a possible 2 - 3 cent per kWh reduction in Northwest China [72] - **Demand**: In 2026, steel demand is expected to be flat, and manganese silicon demand will be under pressure due to weak building material demand [72] - **Overall**: The 2026 manganese silicon market will have "increasing supply and stable demand", with a price range of 5,200 - 6,300 yuan/ton [73] 3. Silicon Iron: Increasing Supply, Weak Demand Support 3.1 Over - Capacity, Reduced Supply in High - Cost Regions - In 2025, silicon iron production decreased, with a "high - then - low" pattern. High - cost regions like Qinghai and Gansu reduced production. In 2026, new capacity of about 1.038 million tons is expected, mainly in cost - advantage regions [77][78] 3.2 Cost Reduction - In 2026, electricity prices are expected to decline by 2 - 3 cents per kWh in Northwest China. Lanthanum coke prices may also fall, leading to a lower cost center for silicon iron [83] 3.3 Steel Demand Stable, Export Declining, Magnesium Metal Supporting - **Export**: In 2025, silicon iron exports were high. In 2026, exports may decline due to high tariffs and potential competition from Ukraine [92] - **Magnesium Metal**: In 2026, the demand for magnesium alloy is expected to increase, providing some support for silicon iron, but the proportion is small [92] - **Steel**: In 2026, steel demand is expected to be stable, having a neutral impact on silicon iron demand [93] 3.4 Silicon Iron Supply - Demand Summary and Balance Sheet - **Supply**: New capacity will be concentrated in cost - advantage regions, with an expected increase in 2026 [96] - **Cost**: Electricity and coal prices are expected to decline, weakening cost support [96] - **Demand**: Exports may decline, and magnesium metal demand will provide limited support. Steel demand will be stable [96] - **Overall**: In 2026, the silicon iron market may have increasing supply and demand, with a price range of 5,000 - 6,000 yuan/ton [97]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for cotton is "Bullish" [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply-demand outlook for the cotton market is tightening, and the cotton market is expected to fluctuate upward. In 2026, the ICE cotton price is expected to be volatile and bullish, with an estimated operating range of 60 - 80 cents per pound. The Zhengzhou cotton market is also generally optimistic, with an estimated range of 13,300 - 16,500 yuan per ton [1][2][165][167] Summary According to the Directory 1. 2025: Trade War and Strong Demand Caused Volatility in Zhengzhou Cotton, with a Strong Domestic and Weak Overseas Performance - In 2025, Zhengzhou cotton showed a wide - range volatile trend. The trade war intensified the fluctuations, but strong domestic demand provided support. The main contract price of Zhengzhou cotton operated between 12,300 - 14,300 yuan per ton, while the overseas market was generally weak, operating between 60 - 70 cents per pound [14] - From January to March, Zhengzhou cotton was relatively resistant to decline compared to the overseas market, and the internal - external price difference widened. The overseas market was weak due to the expected supply - demand loosening and trade war concerns [14] - From April to May, trade policy changes led to increased volatility in both domestic and overseas markets. Zhengzhou cotton first fell and then rose, and the internal - external price difference first narrowed and then expanded [15] - From June to August, rapid domestic commercial inventory depletion and a strong commodity atmosphere drove up Zhengzhou cotton, while the overseas market was weak [15] - In September, the expectation of increased Xinjiang cotton production led to a decline in Zhengzhou cotton, and the internal - external price difference narrowed [16] - From October to December, Zhengzhou cotton continued to rise, and the internal - external price difference widened further. The overseas market was under pressure due to weak export demand and seasonal supply pressure [16] 2. International Cotton Fundamental Situation 2.1 United States - **25/26 Season**: The supply of US cotton was relatively loose. The planting area decreased by 16.8% to 9.3 million acres, the yield decreased slightly by 1% to 3.107 million tons, and the ending inventory increased by 12.5% to 980,000 tons. The export signing progress was slow, but there is a possibility of improvement in the second half of the season [20][29][30] - **26/27 Season**: The planting area is expected to decrease by about 3.3% to around 9 million acres. The yield is estimated to be between 2.94 - 3.31 million tons. The supply - demand pattern is expected to tighten, and the ICE cotton price is estimated to operate between 60 - 80 cents per pound [34][35][45] 2.2 India - **25/26 Season**: The production is expected to be stable at around 5.225 million tons, but there is a possibility of downward adjustment. The consumption may be revised downwards due to trade issues. CCI's large - scale purchases will increase import demand [50][51][53] - **26/27 Season**: The planting area is expected to decline due to low cotton - grain price ratios and flood - damaged farmer incomes [62] 2.3 Brazil - The 26/27 season's planting and production are expected to decline slightly. As of December 20, 2025, the planting progress was 16.9%, 3 percentage points slower than the previous year. Different institutions have different estimates of the production decline, generally around 5 - 10% [65][66][67] 2.4 Global - **25/26 Season**: The global cotton supply - demand is in a loose balance, with production slightly increasing by 0.4% to 26.081 million tons and consumption slightly decreasing by 0.3% to 25.824 million tons [70] - **26/27 Season**: The global planting area is expected to decrease by about 5%, and the production is estimated to decline by 800,000 - 1.5 million tons. The consumption is expected to increase slightly by about 1.2% (310,000 tons), resulting in a supply - demand shortage of 800,000 - 1.5 million tons [73] 2.5 Summary and Market Outlook of the International Cotton Market - The market focus will gradually shift to the 26/27 season. The global economic recovery is expected to improve cotton demand, and the supply - demand situation in the 26/27 season is expected to tighten. The ICE cotton price is estimated to operate between 60 - 80 cents per pound [82][85][86] 3. Domestic Cotton Fundamental Situation 3.1 25/26 Season Xinjiang Cotton - The output is expected to increase, with the estimated output between 7.3 - 7.5 million tons. The seed - cotton purchase price was stable, and the ginning mills' processing and sales progress was fast [87][91][94] 3.2 2026 Xinjiang Cotton Planting Area - It is likely to be reduced, but the reduction幅度 is uncertain. Policy regulation and farmers' planting willingness are the key factors [95][97][99] 3.3 Commercial Inventory - Although the domestic cotton production increased in the 25/26 season, the commercial inventory was basically the same as the previous year. The market is worried about a repeat of the supply shortage in the 24/25 season [101][102] 3.4 Imports - **Cotton**: The import quota is expected to be strictly controlled in the 25/26 season, with an estimated commercial import volume of about 1.1 million tons [104] - **Cotton Yarn**: The import volume is expected to increase by more than 300,000 tons, depending on the future internal - external cotton price difference [105] 3.5 Downstream Textile Industry - The industry is highly competitive, with low profits. The cotton - yarn social inventory is relatively healthy, but there are blockages in the downstream weaving mills and their subsequent sectors [110][113][119] 3.6 Terminal Textile and Apparel - **Export**: The export of textile and apparel is resilient. The demand from Belt and Road countries stabilizes textile exports, and the export to the US and the EU is expected to improve in 2026 [127][134][139] - **Domestic Demand**: It is expected to maintain a moderate growth trend, supported by policy but also affected by factors such as the real - estate market and industry competition [157] 3.7 Domestic Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - **25/26 Season**: The supply - demand is expected to be in a tight balance, with an estimated output of about 7.7 million tons, an import of about 1.1 million tons, and a consumption of 8.6 - 8.7 million tons [160] - **26/27 Season**: The supply - demand gap is expected to widen, and the state may need to issue additional import quotas or conduct state reserve sales [162] 4. Summary and Outlook - Internationally, the supply - demand outlook is tightening, and the ICE cotton price is expected to be volatile and bullish in 2026, with an estimated range of 60 - 80 cents per pound [165] - Domestically, the Zhengzhou cotton market is generally optimistic in 2026, with an estimated range of 13,300 - 16,500 yuan per ton. Attention should be paid to factors such as inventory depletion, imports, and consumption [167] 5. Strategy Recommendations - **Unilateral**: It is recommended to take a long position on dips [4][170] - **Arbitrage**: Consider the 5 - 9 reverse spread, but the weakening space of the spread is expected to be limited [4][170]

年度报告-烧碱 供需趋弱，成本托底 [走Ta势bl评e_级Ra：nk] 报告日期： ★供应：2026 年烧碱实际落地新产能预计有限，产量低速增长 能 源 2026 年烧碱计划投产产能依旧较多，但考虑到废盐处理及液氯消 化等问题，装置投产不确定性仍大，预计 2026 年烧碱产能增速或 仅在 3.3%附近。产量跟随产能投放节奏实现增长，但增速可能低 于产能投放速度。一方面，当前氯碱行业开工率已处于较高水平， 继续提升空间不大；另一方面，从氯碱平衡角度看，若烧碱长期维 持高开工，作为联产品的液氯将会面临下游需求承接不足所带来的 阶段性出货不畅压力，进而制约烧碱开工负荷。此外，考虑到下游 氧化铝对烧碱需求预计见顶，若未来氯碱利润恶化，企业生产积极 性受挫，氯碱工厂存在降负生产可能。我们预计 2026 年烧碱行业 平均开工负荷或有所下移，全年产量增速大致维持在 2.2%左右。 化 ★需求：氧化铝供应过剩压制烧碱内需弹性，出口增速放缓 工 2026 年仍是氧化铝投产大年，全年增产计划高达 1495 万吨/年。但 由于电解铝产能天花板已基本达到，随着新产能投放氧化铝供应过 剩加剧，未来面临较大的减产风险，或给烧碱价格带来负 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Financial Market**: A - shares are in a narrow - range consolidation with weakened upward momentum, but the early release of 62.5 billion yuan in consumer product national subsidy funds in 2026 may boost consumption in Q1, and the market is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend without volume contraction. The Fed's December meeting minutes show increased internal differences on interest rate cuts, leading to a decline in market risk appetite and a stronger US dollar index. The bond market is still dominated by institutional behavior, and the risk of a rapid market decline cannot be completely resolved until the allocation of ultra - long bonds is significantly strengthened [1][3][21]. - **Commodity Market**: Steel prices continue to fluctuate, lacking a clear driving force before the New Year's Day holiday. Short - term callback pressure is expected for lithium carbonate, but there are mid - term opportunities to go long on dips. Oil prices are fluctuating strongly, with Venezuela reducing production due to blockades and an increase in the number of US oil rigs [4][5][6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Gold prices had a weak rebound, but gave back gains after the release of the Fed meeting minutes. Silver had a significant rebound, but its sustainability is weak due to pre - holiday position - reducing. The Fed meeting shows large internal differences, with little change in the market's interest rate cut expectations in 2026. Gold lacks continuous upward momentum in the short term, and there is a risk of a phased decline after the holiday [11]. - Investment advice: Reduce positions before the holiday and beware of the risk of decline due to increased short - term volatility in precious metals [12]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - South Korea's inflation slowed in December 2025, with an average inflation rate of 2.1%. The Fed's December meeting minutes show increased differences among officials on interest rate cuts, leading to a decline in market risk appetite and a stronger US dollar index [13][15]. - Investment advice: The US dollar is expected to strengthen in the short term [16]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US 20 - city housing price index rose 1.31% year - on - year in October, slightly higher than expected. The Fed plans to purchase about 220 billion US dollars of Treasury bills in the next 12 months. The US stock index is oscillating at a high level, and the market risk appetite remains high due to optimistic expectations of future liquidity release [17][18]. - Investment advice: Adopt a bullish approach [19]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The early release of 62.5 billion yuan in consumer product national subsidy funds in 2026 may boost consumption in Q1. A - shares are in a narrow - range consolidation, and the market is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend without volume contraction [20][21]. - Investment advice: Allocate evenly in long positions of various stock indices [22]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The 12 - month manufacturing PMI is expected to be weak. The bond market is still dominated by institutional behavior, and the risk of a rapid market decline cannot be completely resolved until the allocation of ultra - long bonds is significantly strengthened. There is a need to be cautious when gambling on a rebound from oversold conditions [24][25]. - Investment advice: Be cautious when gambling on a rebound from oversold conditions [26]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Steel prices continue to fluctuate, lacking a clear driving force before the New Year's Day holiday. The pressure on finished products is moderate, and there is no inventory accumulation. The pressure on the decline of hot metal is limited. Attention should be paid to export changes at the beginning of the year, and a volatile approach is recommended in the short term [29]. - Investment advice: Adopt a volatile approach to steel prices and hold light positions before the holiday [30]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The price of coking coal in the central - southern market is running weakly and steadily. The supply of coking coal is shrinking, and the demand is slightly increasing. The price of coke is under pressure, and the futures may follow the weak oscillation. - Investment advice: Coal and coke are expected to fluctuate in the short term. Pay attention to inventory replenishment and the recovery of hot metal [31]. 3.2.3 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - Coal prices are stabilizing in the short term. The downstream daily consumption is average, and the port inventory is slightly decreasing. Overall, coal prices are still weak [32]. - Investment advice: The overall coal price is weak due to limited demand and high absolute inventory [33]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Iron ore continues to oscillate, with strong overall support but limited upward space. The inventory of steel mills' raw materials is low, and there is short - term support due to the expected slight increase in hot metal and pre - holiday inventory replenishment by downstream [34]. - Investment advice: There is short - term support due to low raw material inventory in steel mills, expected increase in hot metal, and pre - holiday inventory replenishment [34]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - The second - phase expansion project of Julong Copper Mine has successfully carried out a joint trial run. Zijin Mining's net profit in 2025 is expected to increase by 59% - 62% year - on - year. Short - term macro concerns are alleviated, and the domestic inventory is rising. - Investment advice: Copper prices are expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, and it is recommended to go long on dips. Wait and see for arbitrage [37]. 3.2.6 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Zhongwei Co., Ltd. has locked in the supply of 500 - 600 million wet tons of nickel ore resources. Indonesia plans to reduce the RKAB quota of nickel ore, and there may be a tax on cobalt at the mine end. The current price is close to the full cost of NPI, and there are factors restricting price increases. - Investment advice: The market is expected to return to oscillation. If the RKAB quota is only 250 million tons, there is still significant upward space [40]. 3.2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Zijin Mining plans to achieve an output of 120,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent in 2026. There may be short - term callback pressure, and mid - term opportunities to go long on dips can be considered [41][42]. - Investment advice: There is short - term callback pressure, and pay attention to mid - term opportunities to go long on dips [44]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The lead price is oscillating at a high level, with an increase in LME inventory and a marginal decrease in social inventory. The supply and demand are both weak, and the upward space of the lead price is limited. - Investment advice: Wait and see for both unilateral and arbitrage trading [46]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The zinc product tariff in 2026 remains unchanged. The zinc price is oscillating strongly, mainly driven by macro sentiment. The short - term demand is recovering, and the mid - term price is still likely to rise. - Investment advice: Look for opportunities to buy on dips for unilateral trading. Wait and see for calendar spread arbitrage and adopt a reverse arbitrage approach for cross - market arbitrage [48][49]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - Nvidia has invested 5 billion US dollars in Intel. The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand is weak. - Investment advice: There may be short - term adjustments, and pay attention to mid - term opportunities to go long on dips [53]. 3.2.11 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Venezuela is reducing oil production due to US blockades, and the number of US oil rigs is increasing. Oil prices are oscillating strongly, supported by risk premiums [56]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to geopolitical conflicts in the short term [57]. 3.2.12 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The price of carbon emissions is rising, mainly due to the potential quota carry - over demand of some enterprises in newly entered industries. The short - term market risk is high [58]. - Investment advice: The short - term market risk is high [59]. 3.2.13 Energy and Chemicals (Methanol) - Trump threatens to strike Iran if it rebuilds its nuclear program. The methanol price is rising, and a bullish approach is recommended [60]. - Investment advice: Adopt a bullish approach with a target price of around 2250 yuan/ton [61][62]. 3.2.14 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash price in the southwest market is stable. The supply is increasing, and the demand is average. The inventory of glass factories is high, and it is expected to accumulate in the future [63]. - Investment advice: Adopt a bearish approach in the medium term and short the far - month contracts on rallies [64]. 3.2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The float glass price in the Shahe market is flat. The glass futures price is rising due to rumors of environmental protection requirements for fuel transformation. There is uncertainty in the implementation of the transformation [65][66]. - Investment advice: The FG contract is expected to fluctuate between 900 - 1250 yuan/ton in 2026. Short on rallies and pay attention to the potential impact of fuel transformation on supply [67].

年度报告-油脂 潮退的寂静，于暮色中等待风起 [T走ab势le_评R级ank：] 菜油：震荡，豆油：看涨，棕榈油：看涨 报告日期： 2025 年 12 月 30 日 [Table_Summary] ★行情回顾 油脂市场在今年年初回调后，全年始终维持偏高位运行。上半 年，棕榈油冲高回落后走弱，豆油以跟随为主，波动较小，菜 油则受到政策影响走势偏强。6 月中旬，受到美国生物燃料政策 的利多影响，国内油脂市场跟随美豆油与马棕油走强，菜油也 在持续震荡后再度受到政策影响走高，一度突破 10000 元。四季 度产地供应压力激增，叠加生物燃料政策的不确定性增加，油 脂市场在棕榈油的领跌下全线回调。 农 ★行情展望 产 品 2026 年，油脂市场的核心驱动力依旧在国际贸易关系与生物燃 料政策，伴随美国生物燃料政策逐步确定，我们仍倾向于油脂 市场整体价格中枢有望上移。 棕榈油：2026 年产量预计小幅下滑，印尼的生物柴油政策格外 重要。在节省巨额外汇情况下，印尼政府有动力持续推进生柴 政策，而基金问题也可通过上调税率解决，关注点在于 NPSO 部门的政策调整，我们对印尼生柴政策持中性偏乐观的态度。 豆油：后续美国生物燃料政策 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Short - fiber: Oscillating [6] - Bottle chips: Oscillating [6] 2. Report's Core Viewpoints - In 2026, the new production capacity pressure of short - fiber is higher than that of bottle chips. Short - fiber's traditional demand growth is gentle and difficult to break through under the current situation, while its export is expected to maintain high growth. The annual supply - demand pattern of short - fiber will change from destocking to stockpiling, and its processing fee repair space is limited, expected to oscillate between 850 - 1300 yuan/ton. The bottle - chip industry will enter a new stage of "slower production and stable demand growth", with gradually easing supply - demand contradictions and a possible slight upward shift of the processing fee center, but the repair space is restricted [2][3][100][101]. - From a strategic perspective, pay attention to the inter - monthly reverse arbitrage opportunities before the new short - fiber production capacity is put into operation, the inter - monthly positive arbitrage opportunities during the peak demand season of bottle chips, and the phased opportunity of going long on PR and shorting on PF [4][102]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 2025 Short - fiber/Bottle - chip Trend Review - In 2025, the absolute prices of short - fiber and bottle chips followed the polyester raw materials and trended weakly, with the price center lower than that in 2024. The short - fiber processing fee remained strong throughout the year, while the bottle - chip processing fee center declined under pressure [14]. - In Q1, the spot and futures prices of short - fiber and bottle chips followed the raw materials to rise and then fall. Short - fiber factories coordinated production cuts to support prices, and bottle - chip factories reduced production to relieve inventory pressure, resulting in a slight repair of the processing fee [14]. - In Q2, the US trade policy adjustment caused pulse - like fluctuations in the polyester industry chain prices. After that, the industrial logic dominated. Short - fiber processing fees weakened, and bottle - chip processing fees quickly weakened and fluctuated near historical lows [15]. - In H2, the absolute prices of short - fiber and bottle chips followed the cost to decline weakly. Short - fiber inventory continued to be destocked and the processing fee remained firm, while bottle - chip industry leaders jointly reduced production, and the processing fee repaired moderately [15]. 3.2 Short - fiber: New Production Capacity Pressure Resurfaces, and Processing Fee Repair May Be Hindered 3.2.1 Supply Side: New Production Capacity to Be Put into Operation, Supply Pressure Low in the First Half and High in the Second Half - In 2025, the new short - fiber production capacity was 390,000 tons/year, with a year - on - year growth of 4.1%. The short - fiber output increased rapidly through the continuous load - increase of existing capacity, with an annual output of about 8.97 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.7%. By the end of the year, the industry load reached 97.5% [21]. - In 2026 and 2027, there are plans to put into operation 800,000 tons/year and 1 million tons/year of new short - fiber production capacity respectively, with growth rates of 8% and 9.3%. In 2026, the supply pressure may be low in the first half and high in the second half [29][31]. 3.2.2 Demand Side: Traditional Demand Grows Steadily, and Short - fiber Export Volume Is Expected to Remain High - In 2025, short - fiber exports accounted for 18.7% of the total output and digested about 41% of the new production. Spinning is still the most important application area in traditional downstream demand [32]. - **Traditional downstream demand**: The growth rate of traditional downstream demand has slowed down, and the price - bearing capacity is weak. The total production of cloth and yarn has remained stable in recent years. The downstream enterprises are in a difficult cash - flow situation and are cautious about replenishing raw materials, which squeezes the short - fiber profit space [35][36]. - **Short - fiber export**: In the first 10 months of 2025, the short - fiber export volume increased by 29.6% year - on - year. The overseas short - fiber production capacity gap is large, and the anti - dumping impact of some countries is limited. Export may be the most important way to digest new short - fiber production in 2026 [39][42]. 3.2.3 Supply - Demand Pattern Changes from Destocking to Stockpiling, Pay Attention to Industrial Coordination and Regulation - Assuming a 20% growth rate of short - fiber exports and a 5% growth rate of domestic demand in 2026, the short - fiber production is expected to grow by 6.88%, and the supply - demand pattern will change from destocking to stockpiling, with a cumulative stock of 100,000 tons throughout the year [44]. - The upward space for short - fiber processing fees in 2026 is limited. The processing fees are expected to oscillate between 850 - 1300 yuan/ton, with a pattern of high in the first half and low in the second half. The coordination willingness of leading enterprises will support the bottom of processing fees [47]. 3.3 Bottle Chips: Supply - Demand Contradictions Tend to Ease, and the Processing Fee Center May Move Slightly Upward 3.3.1 Supply Side: New Production Capacity Pressure Eases, and Industry Operation Rate May Be Revised Upward - In 2025, the new domestic bottle - chip production capacity was 1.55 million tons/year, and the capacity base at the end of the year was expected to be 21.47 million tons/year, a year - on - year increase of 5.1%. The output from January to November was about 16.05 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13% [50][51]. - In 2026, the new bottle - chip production capacity cycle is basically ending, with only 700,000 tons/year of new production capacity planned to be put into operation, and the capacity growth rate is expected to be 3.3%. The low processing fee restricts the actual supply, and the industry operation rate has great upward elasticity [56][58]. 3.3.2 Demand Side: Few Bright Spots, and the Overall Growth Rate May Slow Down - **Domestic demand**: In 2025, the domestic demand for bottle chips was expected to reach 9.3 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.9%. In 2026, domestic demand is expected to grow moderately, with limited demand pull from the soft - drink industry due to factors such as high base and lightweight packaging [63][66][67]. - **Export**: In the first 11 months of 2025, bottle - chip exports increased by 12.2% year - on - year. In 2026, bottle - chip exports are expected to have incremental space due to the expanding overseas supply - demand gap and the limited impact of trade frictions on the total export volume [79][82][90]. 3.3.3 Limited Supply - Demand Contradictions, Pay Attention to the Operation of Existing Devices - When the bottle - chip production growth rate is around 7.2%, the annual supply - demand difference in 2026 may be basically the same as that in 2025. The industry operation rate has an upward space of 3% - 4%. However, once the industry profit recovers, the supply elasticity will increase significantly [96]. 3.4 Investment Recommendations - **Fundamental analysis**: Short - fiber's traditional demand growth is gentle, and exports are expected to maintain high growth. In 2026, new production capacity will be put into operation, and the supply - demand pattern will change from destocking to stockpiling. The processing fee repair space is limited, and the absolute price will oscillate with the raw materials. The bottle - chip industry will enter a new stage of "slower production and stable demand growth", with gradually easing supply - demand contradictions and limited processing fee repair space [100][101]. - **Strategy analysis**: In 2026, pay attention to the inter - monthly reverse arbitrage opportunities before the new short - fiber production capacity is put into operation, the inter - monthly positive arbitrage opportunities during the peak demand season of bottle chips, and the phased opportunity of going long on PR and shorting on PF [102].

年度报告——铜 革故鼎新，迭创新高 | [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] | | | 铜：看涨 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 | 年 | 12 | 月 | 30 | 日 | [Table_Analyser] | [★Ta原bl料e_端Summary] 矿端紧缺加剧，冷料补充有限，预计 2026 年全球铜矿产量边际 增长至 30-45 万金属吨。极端天气频发、地缘政策潜变、资源民 族主义抬头、矿石品位下降及水资源紧张、社区问题不稳及罢 工潜在威胁已经构成"系统性扰动风险"。 ★冶炼端 有 色 金 加工利润继续恶化，产能限制风险抬升，冶炼主动降负荷范围 扩大，2026 年全球精铜产量边际增长恐低于 50 万吨。明年将更 多围绕减产预期博弈，盘面及结构均会受到影响。海外供给生 态更为脆弱，间接影响铜元素进口。副产品收益继续观察。 ★需求端 需求新周期悄然开启，"旧动能不弱，新动能更强"，乐观预 计 2026 年全球铜需求边际增速超过 4%。新能源需求与国内传统 需求阶段被低估风险上升，明年存在阶 ...