1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Oscillation [1] - Polysilicon: Oscillation [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Industrial silicon prices have a clearer lower limit, and it is more cost - effective to go long on dips. Polysilicon is expected to return to a volatile market, with the main contract operating between 51,000 - 56,000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to range - trading opportunities [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - The Si2601 contract of industrial silicon decreased by 200 yuan/ton week - on - week to 9020 yuan/ton. The spot price of East China oxygen - blown 553 increased by 50 yuan/ton to 9500 yuan/ton, and the price of Xinjiang 99 remained flat at 8850 yuan/ton. The PS2601 contract of polysilicon increased by 830 yuan/ton to 54045 yuan/ton. The average transaction price of N - type re -投料 of polysilicon remained flat at 53200 yuan/ton [9] 3.2 Organic Silicon "Anti - involution", Silicon Wafer Enterprises Jointly Support Prices - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures main contract of industrial silicon fluctuated weakly. Southwest China may have further furnace shutdowns during the dry season. The social inventory decreased by 0.6 million tons week - on - week, and the sample factory inventory increased by 0.06 million tons. The balance sheet shows a slight inventory build - up in November and a de - stocking of about 1 million tons in December, but "anti - involution" in organic silicon may affect December's de - stocking [11] - **Organic Silicon**: The price of organic silicon increased. The industry reached a consensus on production cut and price support. The overall enterprise start - up rate was 73.62%, the weekly output was 48,700 tons (a 1.67% increase), and the inventory was 42,100 tons (a 3.22% decrease). The success of "anti - involution" depends on production cut implementation [12] - **Polysilicon**: The futures main contract of polysilicon fluctuated. The spot mainly delivered previous orders. Considering the dry season, the production schedule in November is expected to drop to 115,000 tons. As of November 13, the factory inventory was 267,000 tons (an increase of 0.8 million tons). The spot price depends on the game between policy and fundamentals. It is expected to remain flat in November [13] - **Silicon Wafer**: The price of silicon wafers was volatile. After a price cut on Tuesday, several enterprises jointly raised prices on Thursday. The production cut is not obvious, with a production schedule of 57 - 58GW in November. As of November 13, the inventory was 18.42GW (an increase of 0.9GW). The price is expected to fluctuate [14] - **Battery Cell**: The price of battery cells continued to decline. Indian demand shifted, and domestic demand also decreased. As of November 10, the inventory was 5.81GW (an increase of 1.96GW). The production schedule in November is 57.4GW. The price may loosen further [15] - **Component**: The component price was basically stable. Some high - power component quotes increased. The demand declined, and the production schedule in November is expected to be 44.4GW (a decrease of 1GW). There are concerns about a significant decline in December's production schedule [16] 3.3 Investment Suggestions - **Industrial Silicon**: After hedging, short - term price drops are unlikely to cause production cuts. The price needs to break through 10,000 yuan/ton to increase supply. It is more cost - effective to go long on dips [3] - **Polysilicon**: The spot price is expected to remain stable in November. The futures may return to a volatile market, with the main contract operating between 51,000 - 56,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to range - trading opportunities [3] 3.4 Hot News Summaries - **Silicon Wafer Enterprises Jointly Support Prices**: Several silicon wafer enterprises jointly raised prices to support "anti - involution" competition. The actual transaction depends on downstream acceptance [18] - **Positive Results in Photovoltaic Industry Self - regulation**: The self - regulation of the photovoltaic industry has achieved positive results. Product prices are gradually stabilizing, and the situation where polysilicon prices are below cost has improved [18] - **Statement on Online False News**: The association is promoting industry self - regulation and "anti - involution" work. Online rumors are false information [19] 3.5 Industry Chain High - frequency Data Tracking - **Industrial Silicon**: It includes data on spot prices, weekly production in different regions, social inventory, and sample factory inventory [21][24][26][28] - **Organic Silicon**: It includes data on DMC spot prices, weekly profits, factory inventory, and weekly production [32][34] - **Polysilicon**: It includes data on spot prices, weekly gross profits, factory weekly inventory, and enterprise weekly production [36][40] - **Silicon Wafer**: It includes data on spot prices, profit calculations, factory weekly inventory, and enterprise weekly production [41][43][44] - **Battery Cell**: It includes data on spot prices, profit calculations, export factory weekly inventory, and enterprise monthly production [49][51][54][55] - **Component**: It includes data on spot prices, profit calculations, finished product inventory, and enterprise monthly production [57][59][60][61]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend rating for lithium carbonate is "oscillation" [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week (11/10 - 11/14), lithium salt prices increased with rising positions. The closing prices of LC2511 and LC2601 rose by 6.5% and 6.1% respectively, and the spot average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 5.9%. Lithium hydroxide prices also edged up [1]. - The main reason for the significant increase in the lithium price center last week was concentrated on Monday. Currently, the position volume remains high, and on Friday, some long - position holders took profits, causing the market to oscillate at a high level. The core logic for long - position holders to increase positions at high levels is the strong - reality trading under continuous strong demand and accelerated inventory reduction, as well as the expected cost increase of Jiangxi mica mines after paying the mining right transfer income. There are large differences in the market's expectations for the resumption of production rhythm. Attention should be paid to potential resumption information after the publicity period [2][15]. - In the short term, the lithium price is expected to remain oscillating at a high level, and range operation can be maintained. In the medium term, one can look for opportunities to short at high levels after the demand weakens month - on - month and the project resumption rhythm becomes clear [2][15][16] Summary According to the Catalog 1. Chile's October Shipment and Market Supply Game - In October, Chile's lithium salt shipments and Australian ore exports increased marginally after the lithium price rose. The market's game on supply has intensified [2][15] 2. Week - on - Week Industry News Review - Ganfeng Lithium: The joint development of the PPGS lithium salt lake project with LAR in Argentina has made key progress, and the "Environmental Impact Assessment Report" has been obtained. The project plans to submit a large - scale investment promotion system application in the first half of 2026. The project has about 15.07 million tons of LCE proven + controlled resources, with a designed annual production capacity of about 150,000 tons of LCE, to be built in three phases [17]. - Brazil's lithium concentrate exports in October decreased by 85% month - on - month, mainly because Sigma Lithium, the largest lithium spodumene producer in the country, did not export during this period. However, exports this year have increased by about 54% year - on - year [17]. - Core Lithium has increased the ore reserves of Grants and cut the project's capital expenditure by 35 - 45 million Australian dollars. The revised plan also advances the production time of the first batch of ore and increases the Grants ore reserves by 33% [18]. - Rio Tinto has shelved its controversial Jadar lithium project in Serbia, which involves an investment of $2.95 billion and will enter the "maintenance" state [18]. - The pilot program for conditional exemption of road transportation of power and energy - storage lithium batteries has been officially launched, which will effectively release compliant transportation capacity and solve the contradiction between the "zero - inventory" production model and the shortage of transportation capacity [19] 3. Key High - Frequency Data Monitoring of the Industry Chain 3.1 Resource End: Lithium Concentrate Spot is Strong - The spot price of lithium concentrate is strong, with the spot average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) reaching $1,006/ton on 11/14/25, a month - on - month increase of 8.5% [13][20] 3.2 Lithium Salt: Intensified Game of Resumption Disturbance - The game of resumption disturbance in the lithium salt market has intensified. Last week, the production of lithium carbonate was 21,545 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11 tons, mainly contributed by salt lake production, while the production of mica and spodumene decreased marginally. The weekly inventory was 120,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3,481 tons. The capacity utilization rate of salt factories is only 60%. After the increase in spodumene port inventory, domestic production is expected to increase marginally [2][15] 3.3 Downstream Intermediates: Ternary and Lithium Cobalt Oxide Continue to be Strong - Ternary and lithium cobalt oxide continue to be strong. In September, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 50%. The prices of downstream intermediate products such as ternary materials and lithium cobalt oxide have shown an upward trend. For example, the spot average price of ternary material 523 increased by 4.4% month - on - month, and the spot average price of ternary material 622 increased by 9.5% month - on - month [10][13] 3.4 Terminal: The Penetration Rate of New Energy Vehicles in September Reached 50% - In September, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 50%. The installed capacity of power batteries maintained high growth, and the production and sales of new energy vehicles also showed a good growth trend [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The financial data in October was mostly below expectations, with the household sector deleveraging again and the M1 growth rate turning downward. However, the bond market had fully anticipated this, and it remained in a volatile range [2]. - Multiple Federal Reserve officials made hawkish statements, leading to a liquidity crunch in the market, a significant decline in risk appetite, and a short - term rebound of the US dollar [13]. - In the commodity market, different products showed various trends. For example, the strong reality and weak expectations coexisted in the lithium carbonate market, and the methanol market had a reduced probability of extreme market conditions [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Multiple Federal Reserve officials, including Beth Hammack, emphasized high inflation and the need to maintain restrictive policies. This led to a liquidity crunch, a decline in risk appetite, and a short - term rebound of the US dollar [13]. - Investment advice: The US dollar index is expected to rebound in the short term [14]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Fed officials were more cautious about future interest rate cuts due to the non - release of economic data. Their overall hawkish statements increased the yield of US Treasury bonds, reduced market risk appetite, and led to greater long - short games in technology stocks, dragging down the index performance [16]. - Investment advice: The US stocks are expected to fluctuate at high levels in the short term, and a mostly bullish approach should be maintained [17]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - In October, M2 increased by 6.2% year - on - year, and the A - share market was booming, but the poor financial data in October and the real - estate adjustment might limit the stock market's rebound space [18][19]. - Investment advice: Allocate evenly among long positions in various stock indices [20]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The financial data in October was weak, which was beneficial to the bond market. However, the bond market had already anticipated this, and it remained in a narrow - range volatile state. The stock - bond seesaw effect was present, but the stock market was unlikely to drive the bond market to fall continuously [22]. - Investment advice: Adopt a volatile trading strategy [23]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The NOAA reported that La Nina might last until the Northern Hemisphere winter. The USDA's weekly export sales report met expectations, and CONAB predicted record - high soybean production and exports in Brazil's 25/26 season [24][26]. - Investment advice: Closely monitor the USDA's monthly supply - demand report, especially the adjustments to US soybean yield and exports [26]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Indonesia's palm oil replanting target for small farmers was unlikely to be achieved. Indonesia will start B50 road tests in early December and plans to implement the B50 policy in the second half of next year, which may reduce palm oil exports [27][28]. - Investment advice: The B50 policy will support market sentiment in the short term, but the high inventory will limit the upside of the 01 contract. Consider long positions in the 05 contract [29]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - The CAI lowered India's cotton production forecast for the 25/26 season. The international cotton market was weak, and the market had a bearish expectation for the upcoming USDA report [30][32]. - Investment advice: The Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to fluctuate in the short term (13300 - 13800). Wait for a pull - back to go long in the long term [34]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - The purchase price of red dates in Xinjiang decreased slightly. The futures price of the main contract CJ601 fell, and the supply was increasing while the demand was weak [35][36]. - Investment advice: Wait and see until the harvest is completed, and focus on the price negotiation and purchase progress in the production area [36]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Hogs) - A major shareholder of Muyuan released 64.2 million shares from pledge. The inventory accumulation continued, but whether it would lead to a weak peak season was uncertain. The price might stabilize and rebound with the entry of second - fattening pigs, but the price decline pressure in the fourth quarter was still large [37]. - Investment advice: The near - term contracts may strengthen with the increase in curing demand. Sell on rallies for the 1 and 3 contracts and consider long positions in the far - term contracts on dips [38]. 3.2.6 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The spot market of imported Australian steam coal was stable. The port coal price was firm, but the pit - mouth price decreased. The 2026 long - term contract price is expected to be 675 yuan, and the coal price is expected to remain high in winter but face resistance at 900 yuan [39]. - Investment advice: The port price is expected to be stable at a high level, and the price may fluctuate around 800 yuan. Monitor the long - term contract negotiation in December and temperature changes [39]. 3.2.7 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Usiminas' iron ore production and sales increased in the third quarter. The fundamentals were weak, with high hot - rolled coil inventory and weak year - end orders. The steel mills' demand for raw materials was under pressure [40]. - Investment advice: Given the weak fundamentals, the raw material side is still under pressure, but the rate of decline is slow [40]. 3.2.8 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - India imposed anti - dumping duties on Vietnamese alloy and non - alloy hot - rolled steel plates. The steel price rebounded slightly, but the overall demand was average, and the high inventory of hot - rolled coils limited the price rebound [41][45]. - Investment advice: Adopt a volatile trading strategy for steel prices in the short term [46]. 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The consumption of corn and corn starch in starch sugar products increased slightly. The starch price followed the raw material price, and the futures price spread between rice and starch strengthened slightly [47][49]. - Investment advice: The 01 futures price spread has recovered to some extent. Expect short - term fluctuations and consider band trading [49]. 3.2.10 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The corn inventory of processing enterprises decreased. The spot and futures prices were strong, but there might be selling pressure later. The 07 and 09 contracts are expected to be bullish in the long term [49][50]. - Investment advice: There is uncertainty in the new - season supply - demand. The spot and futures prices may fall later. Wait for a pull - back to go long in the 07 and 09 contracts [50]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead inventory decreased, and the cash - to - three - month spread widened. The SHFE lead price fluctuated. The delivery volume will be reflected in the warehouse receipts, and the deep - decline possibility is low before the warehouse receipt risk is resolved [52]. - Investment advice: For the industry, consider short - selling at high levels. Observe the virtual - to - real ratio of the 12 and 01 contracts. For arbitrage, wait and see. Consider positive arbitrage between domestic and foreign markets [53]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc cash - to - three - month spread was at a premium, and the domestic zinc inventory decreased. The short - term price fluctuation of SHFE zinc followed the macro trend, and the LME inventory change should be monitored [56]. - Investment advice: For the short - term, observe if the short - selling trend is established and consider short - selling at high levels. Consider positive arbitrage in the medium - term. Be cautious with short - term foreign - domestic reverse arbitrage [56]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The LME nickel inventory decreased slightly. The raw material price was expected to be stable and strong, and the refined nickel inventory accumulation slowed down [57]. - Investment advice: The market has a consistent expectation of nickel oversupply. Wait and see in the short term and consider long positions after the inventory accumulation inflection point [58]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Rio Tinto shelved the Jadar lithium project in Serbia. The strong reality and weak expectations coexisted. The inventory decline accelerated in the short term, but the supply may increase in the future [59][60]. - Investment advice: Expect a strong and volatile market in the short term and consider range trading. Look for short - selling opportunities at high levels in the medium - term when the demand weakens and the project restart progress is clear [61]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA price decreased slightly, and the trading volume remained high. The rigid demand during the compliance peak supported the carbon price, but the overall supply - demand structure was loose [62]. - Investment advice: The CEA has strong short - term support [63]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Methanol) - China's methanol production and capacity utilization decreased slightly this week. The probability of extreme market conditions for the 01 contract decreased significantly [64]. - Investment advice: Holders of short positions can take profits at around 2100 yuan/ton. If the price rebounds without a fundamental reversal, short positions can be re - established [6]. 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The supply of caustic soda increased, and the demand was stable. The low - concentration caustic soda price was stable, and the high - concentration caustic soda price increased slightly [66]. - Investment advice: The fundamentals of caustic soda have little change, with overall supply - demand being relatively loose. Expect short - term fluctuations [68]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC powder market price weakened slightly. The futures price fluctuated, and the inventory decreased slightly. The cancellation of India's BIS certification has limited positive effects [69][70]. - Investment advice: Adopt a short - selling strategy on rebounds for near - term contracts. Consider long - term layout for far - term contracts after a significant price decline [71]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp increased. The futures price of pulp rose, and the market focused on the reduction of low - price warehouse receipts after December [72]. - Investment advice: The pulp futures are relatively strong in the near term. Monitor the warehouse receipt registration. If a large number of warehouse receipts are registered, the upward risk of the futures price will increase [73]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - China's styrene production and capacity utilization increased this week. The price of styrene rebounded, mainly due to the concentrated short - covering of crowded short positions [74][75]. - Investment advice: Monitor whether short positions will take profits in advance. Adopt a wait - and - see attitude in the short term [76]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash manufacturer's inventory changed little this week. The futures price rebounded due to cost increases. The near - term contracts are relatively strong, but the far - term contracts may be under pressure with new capacity coming online [77]. - Investment advice: The near - term contracts have some support, and the downward space depends on coal price fluctuations and new capacity release. Adopt a bearish approach in the medium - term [78]. 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The float glass manufacturer's inventory changed little this week, with regional differences. The futures price rebounded due to the strength of soda ash [79]. - Investment advice: The market has intense long - short games and large price fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see [79]. 3.2.23 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - The Port of Long Beach will develop a new container terminal. The focus of the European line is on the implementation of the December price increase and the adjustment at the EC2502 delivery date [80]. - Investment advice: The market fluctuates greatly. Pay attention to risk management and consider long positions on dips for the 02 contract [80].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold prices are oscillating above $4,100, with signs of bottom - fishing allocation. The end of the US government shutdown and the potential December interest - rate cut will be points of long - short game. Short - term gold will continue to oscillate [2][11]. - The market for stock index futures is in weak oscillation. The implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy and the full release of 500 billion yuan in new policy - based financial instruments have an impact on the market. It is recommended to evenly allocate long positions in various stock indices [13][14]. - The US labor market is slowing down, causing the dollar index to decline in the short term [3][17]. - The performance of US stock index futures is mixed. CoreWeave's Q3 revenue exceeded expectations, but the full - year revenue forecast was lowered. The 10 - month ADP private - sector employment decreased by 45,000. The market is expected to be volatile at a high level, and a bullish approach is recommended [19][20]. - The bond market for treasury bond futures lacks a clear direction. It is recommended to pay appropriate attention to strategies such as positive arbitrage and widening basis spreads [23][24]. - For agricultural products like soybeans, the market expects the US soybean yield to be lowered. Brazilian soybean exports in November are expected to increase. It is recommended to pay attention to the USDA monthly supply - demand report [26][28]. - For black metals such as coking coal and coke, the spot price of coking coal is supported, but the iron - water decline and high downstream inventory put pressure on the market. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [4][29]. - For agricultural products like edible oils, palm oil needs to pay attention to November high - frequency data, and rapeseed oil can continue to focus on the 1 - 5 positive spread [30][31]. - For red dates, the purchase price in the production area has slightly decreased. It is recommended to wait and see until the harvest is completed [32][33]. - For steel products, steel prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. It is recommended to adopt an oscillating mindset [35][37]. - For cotton, the price in Brazil has reached a 16 - year low. The cotton market in China is expected to oscillate in the short term and be cautiously bullish in the long term [37][40]. - For live pigs, the fourth - quarter price decline pressure is large. It is recommended to short on sharp rebounds and buy far - month contracts at low prices [43][44]. - For thermal coal, the coal price is expected to remain high in winter but difficult to break through the 900 - yuan pressure level [45][46]. - For iron ore, the price is expected to oscillate weakly, waiting for demand improvement [47][48]. - For polysilicon, it has entered the critical point of policy - and fundamental - face game. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices [49][51]. - For industrial silicon, it is recommended to buy at low prices and take profits at high positions [53][54]. - For lead, the industrial sector can look for short - selling hedging opportunities at high positions in the medium term [56][57]. - For zinc, observe the short - term short - selling trend and consider positive spread arbitrage opportunities [58]. - For nickel, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and look for long - buying opportunities after the inventory accumulation inflection point [60]. - For lithium carbonate, it is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term and look for short - selling opportunities at high prices in the medium term [61][64]. - For crude oil, it is expected to maintain an oscillating trend in the short term [66][67]. - For carbon emissions, the short - term support for CEA is strong [67][68]. - For pulp, the upward risk of the pulp market is increasing [69][70]. - For container freight rates, it is recommended to consider long - buying opportunities for the 02 contract at low prices [72]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US continues to implement the trade negotiation agreement. The global largest gold ETF's holdings increased by 4.3 tons. Gold prices oscillated above $4,100. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [10][11]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The central bank released the Q3 2025 China Monetary Policy Implementation Report, emphasizing a moderately loose monetary policy. 500 billion yuan in new policy - based financial instruments have been fully released. The market is in weak oscillation. It is recommended to evenly allocate long positions in various stock indices [13][14]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The French central bank expects the economy to grow slightly in Q4. The US labor market is slowing down, causing the dollar index to decline in the short term [16][17]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - CoreWeave's Q3 revenue exceeded expectations, but the full - year revenue forecast was lowered. The 10 - month ADP private - sector employment decreased by 45,000. The market is expected to be volatile at a high level, and a bullish approach is recommended [19][20]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank carried out a 403.8 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation. The bond market lacks a clear direction. It is recommended to pay appropriate attention to strategies such as positive arbitrage and widening basis spreads [23][24]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Brazil exported 117.7 million tons of soybeans in the first week of November. The market expects the US soybean yield to be lowered to 53.1 bushels per acre. It is recommended to pay attention to the USDA monthly supply - demand report [26][28]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The online auction price of coking coal in Changzhi Qinyuan increased. The spot price of coking coal is supported, but the iron - water decline and high downstream inventory put pressure on the market. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [29]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The US soybean crushing profit decreased. The palm oil market needs to pay attention to November high - frequency data, and the rapeseed oil market can continue to focus on the 1 - 5 positive spread [30][31]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - The purchase price of red dates in the production area has slightly decreased. It is recommended to wait and see until the harvest is completed [32][33]. 3.2.5 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - China's automobile production and sales increased in October. Thailand imposed anti - dumping duties on Chinese H - shaped hot - rolled steel. Steel prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [34][35]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - Brazilian cotton prices reached a 16 - year low. The cotton market in China is expected to oscillate in the short term and be cautiously bullish in the long term [37][40]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Live Pigs) - Zhongliang Jiajikang's live - pig sales volume increased by 25% in October. The fourth - quarter price decline pressure is large. It is recommended to short on sharp rebounds and buy far - month contracts at low prices [41][44]. 3.2.8 Black Metals (Thermal Coal) - The price difference between imported and domestic thermal coal exists. The coal price is expected to remain high in winter but difficult to break through the 900 - yuan pressure level [45][46]. 3.2.9 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - CSN's Q3 iron ore sales reached a record high. The iron - ore price is expected to oscillate weakly, waiting for demand improvement [47][48]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Many silicon wafer enterprises reduced prices. Polysilicon has entered the critical point of policy - and fundamental - face game. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices [49][51]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The Inner Mongolia Xingfa industrial silicon project is progressing orderly. It is recommended to buy at low prices and take profits at high positions [52][54]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead inventory increased. The industrial sector can look for short - selling hedging opportunities at high positions in the medium term [55][57]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc cash - to - three - month spread increased. Observe the short - term short - selling trend and consider positive spread arbitrage opportunities [58]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Indonesia plans to lower the 2026 nickel production target. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and look for long - buying opportunities after the inventory accumulation inflection point [59][60]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Brazil's lithium concentrate exports decreased significantly in October. Lithium carbonate is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term and look for short - selling opportunities at high prices in the medium term [61][64]. 3.2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - US sanctions on a Russian oil company may affect European countries' inventory replenishment. Crude oil is expected to maintain an oscillating trend in the short term [65][67]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA price increased. The short - term support for CEA is strong [67][68]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp increased. The upward risk of the pulp market is increasing [69][70]. 3.2.19 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - Hapag - Lloyd will impose a peak - season surcharge. It is recommended to consider long - buying opportunities for the 02 contract at low prices [71][72].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The shipping situation on the European route shows various trends in terms of loading rates, shipping schedules, and port congestion. The loading rates fluctuate among different alliances and departure regions, and there are also changes in shipping capacity and ship - schedule delays [6][11][16] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. European Route Loading Rate Tracking - W45 European - bound fleet's average loading rate for ships departing from China was 91.1%, a slight decrease of 0.4% from the previous period. The loading rate for ships departing from Asia in W44 was 98.2%, a slight increase of 0.5% from the previous period [7] - For different alliances, OA China - departure loading rate was 91.6%, a 3.7% decline; PA and MSC China - departure loading rate was 91.4%, a slight 0.2% decrease; Gemini China - departure loading rate was 90.2%, a 5.0% increase [7] 3.2. European Route Shipping Schedule and Capacity - In November, the monthly average weekly shipping capacity was 29.7 million TEU, 19% higher than the average level of 25.0 million TEU in the same period last year. Only in W46 was the supply low at 21.2 million TEU, and it will recover to 31.4 million TEU in the second half of November [11] - In December, the monthly average weekly shipping capacity was 30.3 million TEU, with 4 TBN remaining [11] - There were some changes in shipping schedules, such as route changes and TBN adjustments for certain voyages [11] 3.3. Ship - Schedule Delays and Spot Market Overview - In W45, 3 ships' schedules were postponed to W46, with 0 from Gemini and OA, and 3 from MSC and PA. The operation of Chinese ports is returning to normal [15] - The SCFIS (European route) index closed at 1504.80 points, a 24.5% increase from the previous period. The actual departure capacity of Shanghai Port on the European route in W45 was 28.96 million TEU, with 13% from the delayed schedules in W43 [16] 3.4. Ship - Schedule Delay Observation and Early Warning - There were ship - schedule delays in different weeks for various alliances, with specific ships being delayed for different days and postponed to different weeks. Early warnings were issued for some routes in certain alliances, such as the AE1 route in Gemini [28][31] 3.5. Relevant Port Congestion Data - In China, the average turnaround time at Yangshan Port was about 0.9 days, at Ningbo Port about 1.1 days, and at Yantian Port about 1.0 days. The congestion situation at Chinese ports continued to improve [35] - In Southeast Asia, the port operation fluctuations have converged, and the congestion situation has improved significantly. The average time of ships in port at Singapore Port was 1.3 days, and at Port Klang was 1.2 days [35] - In Europe, although the congestion scale at ports was still relatively high, the ship - turnaround efficiency has basically returned to normal levels, and the impact on the return journey of European - route ships has been greatly reduced [35]

Report Information - Report Title: Key Container Ports and Critical Hub Monitoring 202511 [1] - Researcher: Lan Xi from the Black and Shipping Department of Orient Securities Derivatives Research Institute [1] - Qualification Numbers: F03086543 (从业资格号), Z0016590 (投资咨询号) [1] Core Views - Chinese port congestion continues to improve, with the turnover time last week dropping to a recent low; Southeast Asian port operation fluctuations have converged, and congestion has improved significantly [2] - Antwerp and Rotterdam strikes have ended, and the backlog of goods is being processed. Although port congestion remains high, ship turnover efficiency has basically returned to normal, and the impact on the return journey of European line vessels has been greatly reduced [2] - North American ports are operating well [2] Data Review Asian Ports - Yangshan, Waigaoqiao, Ningbo, Qingdao, Singapore, and Port Klang have different average waiting and berthing times for ocean - going container ships, with the latest number of ships at anchor/berthed also varying. Yangshan, Ningbo, and Yantian have average turnover times of about 0.9 days, 1.1 days, and 1.0 days respectively. Singapore and Port Klang have average ship - in - port times of 1.3 days and 1.2 days respectively [2] - Comparing the latest data of key Asian ports with month - on - month and year - on - year data, most ports show a decrease in the average in - port time [6] European Ports - Rotterdam, Antwerp, Hamburg, Bremen, and Valencia have different average waiting and berthing times for ocean - going container ships, with the latest number of ships at anchor/berthed varying. Antwerp and Rotterdam have average ship - in - port times of about 1.5 days and 2.5 days respectively, Hamburg 1.7 days, and Bremen 1.2 days [2] - Comparing the latest data of key European ports with month - on - month and year - on - year data, there are different degrees of changes in the average in - port time [6] North American Ports - Long Beach, Los Angeles, Tacoma, New York, Savannah, Norfolk, and Houston have different average waiting and berthing times for ocean - going container ships. North American ports are operating well [2] - Comparing the latest data of key North American ports with month - on - month and year - on - year data, there are different degrees of changes in the average in - port time [6] Port Dynamic Tracking Asian Ports - There are data on the scale of container ships in ports, the number of container ships at anchor and berthed in some ports, and the average in - port, waiting, and berthing times of ocean - going container ships in Southeast Asian and Chinese ports [9][13][18] European Ports - There are data on the scale of container ships in European ports, the number of container ships at anchor and berthed in some ports, and the average in - port, waiting, and berthing times of ocean - going container ships in Northwest European and Mediterranean ports [21][22][25] North American Ports - There are data on the number of container ships at anchor and berthed in some North American ports, the scale of container ships in North American ports, and the average in - port, waiting, and berthing times of ocean - going container ships in US ports [33][36][39] Large - Ship Arrival and Key Hub Monitoring - There are data on the arrival of large - scale container ships at Yangshan, Ningbo, and Singapore ports, and the arrival of 1.2w+ container ships of different alliances in Asian, Northwest European, and Mediterranean ports [43][46][49] - There are data on the passage of container ships through the Cape of Good Hope, Suez Canal, and Panama Canal [50][51][52]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold prices are expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term, but whether they can continue to rise and start the next wave of the market remains to be observed [12]. - The US dollar is expected to weaken in the short - term [16]. - For stock indices, a balanced long - position allocation is recommended [20]. - US stock index futures should be treated with a bullish mindset [26]. - The bond market is expected to be in a state of oscillation, and short - term trading is not recommended to chase long positions [29]. - For various commodities, different investment suggestions are given according to their respective fundamentals, such as short - term bullish or bearish outlooks, and strategies like long or short positions at appropriate times [32][35][39] etc. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Fed Governor Milan believes a 50 - basis - point rate cut in December is appropriate, and at least a 25 - basis - point cut is needed. Gold prices rose nearly 3% due to expectations of the Fed's potential balance - sheet expansion and Trump's proposed fiscal expansion. Buying funds entered the market around $4000. Gold is expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term, but the sustainability of the upward trend needs further observation [12]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Switzerland is close to reaching a deal with the US to reduce its export tariff to 15%. Trump supports the Senate's agreement to end the government shutdown. The US dollar index is expected to weaken in the short - term due to the relief of market tightness and the recovery of risk appetite [13][14][16]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The A - share market was strong driven by consumer stocks. New policies on consumption have been introduced this year, but the sustainability of the traditional consumer stocks' rally remains to be seen. A balanced long - position allocation for stock indices is recommended [17][19][20]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Some Fed officials have different views on interest - rate cuts. Trump is trying to reduce tariffs on Switzerland and India. The Senate passed a temporary appropriation bill. The US stock index futures should be treated with a bullish mindset [21][23][25][26]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, resulting in a net injection of funds. Inflation data has a limited negative impact on the bond market. The bond market is in a state of oscillation, and short - term trading is not recommended to chase long positions [27][28][29]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Last week, domestic soybean oil mills' soybean inventory increased, while soybean meal inventory decreased. Brazilian soybean sowing progress is slower than last year. Soybean meal prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the USDA's monthly supply - demand report and China's soybean procurement and South American weather [30][32]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The Simandou Iron Ore project is about to be put into production. Steel prices are oscillating slightly upward, but there is no obvious trend. The valuation of steel prices is not high, but there is still fundamental pressure. Steel prices are expected to remain weakly oscillating in the short - term [33][34][35]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Pakistan's sugar mills will start crushing on November 15. The 25/26 sugar - crushing season in Guangxi is expected to start on November 15, postponed by 7 days. India allows 150,000 tons of sugar exports in the 25/26 season. Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to oscillate in the short - term, and a long - short spread strategy for the 1 - 5 contracts can be considered [36][38][39]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - On November 10, the import market of steam coal had a dull trading performance. Coal prices have risen sharply since November, supported by seasonal demand. However, there is also regulatory pressure above 800 yuan. Attention should be paid to the risk of price corrections [40][41]. 3.2.5 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Grange's iron ore production and sales increased in the third quarter. Iron ore prices are in a weak oscillation. The supply pressure is moderately high, and the inventory is expected to accumulate seasonally in November - December. The valuation space is difficult to open in the short - term [42]. 3.2.6 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal price in the East China market is running strongly. The supply is in a tight - balance state, and the fourth round of coke price increases is underway. The coking coal market is expected to be difficult to fall in the short - term, but the decline in hot - metal production and high downstream inventory may put pressure on the market [43][44]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - MPOB data shows that Malaysia's palm oil inventory increased in October. The oil market rebounded slightly due to the release of the data. Palm oil prices are expected to oscillate after a small - scale rebound in November. Attention should be paid to the weather from December to early next year. Opportunities for long positions in the 05 contract and 1 - 5 spread short - positions can be considered [45][46][47]. 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - Corn starch enterprises in different regions have different levels of theoretical profits. Corn prices are rising, and starch prices are stable. Enterprises are expected to maintain profitability, and the开机 rate is expected to increase. A band - trading strategy is recommended [48]. 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Corn prices are strong. Farmers' willingness to sell is weak, and the supply - demand situation is slightly tight. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short - term and rebound in the long - term. Caution is needed for far - month contracts [49]. 3.2.10 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - The purchase price of red dates in the production area has been slightly reduced. The futures price of the main contract has fallen. It is recommended to wait and see until the harvesting is completed and pay attention to the price negotiation and purchase progress in the production area [50][51]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The government issued a guidance on promoting new - energy consumption and regulation. The polysilicon market is entering a critical point of policy - and fundamental - based games. If the progress of platform companies fails to meet expectations, the spot price may fall. A short - position strategy at high prices can be considered [52][53][54]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - A shareholder of Hesheng Silicon Industry plans to reduce its shareholding. With the arrival of the dry season, the production in Yunnan and Sichuan has decreased. A long - position strategy at low prices can be considered, but profit - taking at high prices is necessary [55][56]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead is at a discount, and the inventory of lead ingots is increasing. The supply and demand of lead are expected to remain strong in the short - term. The industry can consider short - position hedging at high prices [57][58]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Domestic zinc concentrate production decreased in November. The LME zinc is at a premium, and the domestic inventory has slightly increased. The industry can consider short - position hedging at medium - term highs, and a long - short spread strategy can be considered [59][60][61]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Sumitomo's nickel - bean production increased. The raw - material price is expected to remain stable and strong. The inventory accumulation of refined nickel is slowing down. Attention can be paid to long - position opportunities after the inventory accumulation inflection point [62][63]. 3.2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Ganfeng Lithium's PPGS lithium - salt lake project obtained an environmental assessment report. The lithium - carbonate market is in a game between strong current reality and weak future expectations. It is expected to be strongly oscillating in the short - term, and a short - position strategy at high prices can be considered in the medium - term [64][65][66]. 3.2.17 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - A Congolese mine suspended operations due to a leakage incident. A company applied for a US seabed - mining license. The valuation of an Ecuadorian copper mine is $4.6 billion. Copper prices are expected to rise in the short - term, and a long - position strategy can be considered, but large - scale increases are limited [67][68][70]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Two Indian state - owned enterprises bought 5 million barrels of oil from the US and the Middle East. Oil prices are oscillating, and the recovery of market risk appetite provides some support [70][71]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The pulp market is relatively strong recently, but the risk of further upward movement has increased as European pulp can now be registered as warehouse receipts [73]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The caustic - soda market in Shandong is stable. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is moderate. The market is expected to oscillate in the short - term [74][75][76]. 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC powder market price is weakly sorted. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is limited. A short - position strategy at rebounds for near - month contracts and a long - position strategy for far - month contracts after price over - decline can be considered [77][78]. 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Urea) - The capacity - utilization rate of compound fertilizers is stable. Urea prices rebounded due to new export - quota policies and replenishment demand. Urea prices are expected to oscillate within a certain range [79][80][81]. 3.2.23 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - A new styrene device of Guoen was put into operation. The fundamental upward drive of pure benzene and styrene is limited. A wait - and - see attitude is recommended [82][83][84]. 3.2.24 Energy and Chemicals (Asphalt) - Asphalt refinery inventory increased, while social inventory decreased. The asphalt market is weakly oscillating, and it is waiting for the winter - storage policy [85][86][87]. 3.2.25 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - Soda - ash manufacturers' inventory decreased slightly. Soda - ash prices rose due to cost support and production suspension of some enterprises. In the short - term, the downward space of soda - ash prices depends on coal - price fluctuations and new - capacity commissioning. A bearish view is recommended in the medium - term [88]. 3.2.26 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in the Shahe market decreased. The glass market is bearish due to weak production and sales after price increases last week. It is recommended to wait and see [89][90]. 3.2.27 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - Maersk has no intention to return to the Red Sea in the short - term. The SCFIS (Europe route) index increased. The container - freight - rate market is expected to oscillate in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the spot price and booking situation [91][92].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information available 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand gap in the photovoltaic glass industry is expected to widen further, and there is downward pressure on prices. The short - term demand for photovoltaic glass will decline, while the supply is on an upward trend. The inventory of manufacturers may face high - pressure again, and the price may decline slightly later [1][2][6] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Photovoltaic Glass Weekly Outlook - Supply: A production line with a capacity of 1,200 tons per day was unexpectedly cold - repaired last week, causing a decline in supply. The current in - production capacity is 88,130 tons per day, with a capacity utilization rate of 67.40%. Overall, the actual supply shows an upward trend [6][10] - Demand: Short - term demand for photovoltaic glass will decline. Component manufacturers are using previously stocked glass, and November and December are seasonal off - peak demand months. The supply - demand gap is expected to widen [6][19] - Inventory: The inventory of photovoltaic glass manufacturers continued to increase last week. With rising supply and falling demand, manufacturers may face high - inventory pressure again [6][22] - Price: The current price may be temporarily stable, but there may be a slight decline later due to the widening supply - demand gap [2][6] 3.2 Domestic Photovoltaic Glass Industry Chain Data Overview 3.2.1 Photovoltaic Glass Spot Price - As of November 7, the mainstream price of 2.0mm coated (panel) photovoltaic glass was 13 yuan per square meter, unchanged from last week; the mainstream price of 3.2mm coated glass was 19.5 yuan per square meter, down from last week [7] 3.2.2 Supply - side - A production line with a capacity of 1,200 tons per day was unexpectedly cold - repaired last week, causing a decline in supply. The current in - production capacity is 88,130 tons per day, with a capacity utilization rate of 67.40%. The actual supply shows an upward trend [10] 3.2.3 Demand - side - Short - term demand for photovoltaic glass will decline. Component manufacturers are using previously stocked glass, and November and December are seasonal off - peak demand months. The supply - demand gap is expected to widen [19] 3.2.4 Inventory - side - The inventory of photovoltaic glass manufacturers continued to increase last week. With rising supply and falling demand, manufacturers may face high - inventory pressure again [22] 3.2.5 Cost - profit side - Last week, due to the decline in costs, the industry's gross profit margin rebounded to about 0.64% [25] 3.2.6 Trade - side - From January to September 2025, China's photovoltaic glass exports increased by 19.7% compared with the same period in 2024. The export market remains prosperous, and overseas installation demand is strong [33]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Short - term, the price is in a correction trend, pay attention to the risk of decline [12] - US Dollar Index: Short - term, it is expected to fluctuate [16] - US Stock Index Futures: Short - term, the pessimistic sentiment may ferment, the market will fluctuate and adjust, but maintain a bullish view overall [19] - Treasury Bond Futures: Short - term, the bond market will fluctuate, it is recommended to observe more and trade less [23] - Stock Index Futures: Allocate long positions in each stock index evenly [26] - Thermal Coal: The price is strongly supported, but there is regulatory pressure above 800 yuan, pay attention to the risk of price correction [27] - Iron Ore: The price center is gradually weakening, and it is expected to be weak in the short - term [31] - Palm Oil and Soybean Oil: For palm oil, the MPOB report is crucial; for soybean oil, focus on US bio - fuel policies and US soybean purchases [34] - Sugar: The Zhengzhou sugar futures will be mainly volatile in the short - term, and the 1 - 5 contract long spread can be held [39] - Cotton: In the short - term, it will fluctuate between 13300 - 13600 - 13800; in the long - term, it is cautiously bullish, wait for the opportunity to go long on dips [44] - Bean Meal: It is currently in a situation of "cost support below and supply - demand suppression above", and pay attention to actual soybean purchases and South American production forecasts [47] - Steel: In the short - term, consider the steel price to be in a weak and volatile trend [51] - Corn Starch: In the medium - long term, the spot rice - flour price difference is expected to shrink, it is recommended to trade in bands [53] - Red Dates: The market is in intense game, operate cautiously, and focus on the price game and purchase progress in the producing areas [56] - Corn: The 01 contract is expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term, and rebound in the medium - long term; do not be overly optimistic about the far - month contracts [58] - Copper: Unilaterally, it is recommended to go long on dips; for arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see [63] - Polysilicon: In November, it enters the critical point of policy and fundamentals game. Consider shorting on rallies [66] - Industrial Silicon: It is more cost - effective to go long on dips, and take profit at high levels [68] - Lithium Carbonate: In the short - term, it will fluctuate within a range; in the medium - term, consider shorting on rallies [74] - Nickel: Pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips after the inflection point of inventory accumulation [78] - Lead: Industrially, consider shorting on rallies in the medium - term; for spreads, wait and see; for internal - external spreads, consider long internal - short external spreads [80] - Zinc: Industrially, consider shorting on rallies in the medium - term, but wait and see in the short - term; for spreads, consider long spreads in the medium - term; for internal - external spreads, it has a certain profit - loss ratio [81] - EU Carbon Emissions: The EU carbon price will fluctuate in the short - term [83] - Crude Oil: The oil price is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [86] - PTA: In the short - term, the futures will be volatile and strong, but be cautious about the upside space [88] - Bottle Chip: Consider shorting the far - month processing margin on rallies, and the absolute price follows the polyester raw materials [92] - Urea: It will fluctuate within the range of 1580 - 1780 yuan/ton, and adjust according to the actual spot feedback [94] - Container Freight Rate: In the short - term, the market will fluctuate, and continuously monitor the spot price changes [96] 2. Core Views - The US government shutdown shows signs of resolution, which may boost market risk appetite and weaken the US dollar index. The US stock index futures market sentiment has recovered, but the consumer confidence index has declined [14][16][19] - China's October export growth rate decreased significantly, but it is expected to have resilience in the future. The bond market is currently in a volatile state, and positive spread strategies can be considered [20][22][23] - Various commodities have different market situations. For example, the iron ore price is weakening, the palm oil market is waiting for the MPOB report, and the copper market is affected by macro - expectations and inventory structures [28][33][62] 3. Summaries by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - In October, China's gold reserves increased by about 0.93 tons. The US consumer confidence index declined in November, inflation expectations slightly rose, and the short - term gold price continued to fluctuate [10][11] 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The Fed needs to weigh various factors in the next interest - rate decision. The potential agreement to end the US government shutdown is being reached, and the US dollar index is expected to weaken in the short - term [13][15][16] 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The Fed should act cautiously as the interest rate approaches the neutral level. The US government shutdown shows signs of resolution, but the consumer confidence index is close to a record low. The short - term market will fluctuate and adjust [17][18][19] 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - China's October inflation data was slightly better than expected, but the export growth rate decreased significantly. The bond market is worried about the fund fee rate new regulations, and it is currently in a volatile state [20][22][23] 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - China has suspended some export control measures. The A - share market has shown a stable volume and rising price, and it is recommended to evenly allocate long positions in each stock index [24][25][26] 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metal (Thermal Coal) - In November, the thermal coal price has risen, and it is expected to be strong, but there is regulatory pressure above 800 yuan [27] 3.2.2 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - A South African iron ore mine will be temporarily closed, but it will not affect global supply. The iron ore price is weakening, and the inventory is expected to increase [28][29][31] 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Brazil's soybean planting progress is slower than last year and the five - year average. The palm oil market is waiting for the MPOB report, and the soybean oil market is concerned about US bio - fuel policies [32][33][34] 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Brazil's sugar export reached a new high in October. The new sugar production in Guangxi will start later, and the Zhengzhou sugar futures will be mainly volatile in the short - term [36][38][39] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - China's textile and clothing export decreased in October. The cotton picking progress is fast, and the Zhengzhou cotton futures will fluctuate in the short - term and be cautiously bullish in the long - term [40][42][44] 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Bean Meal) - China has restored the soybean import qualification of three US companies. The domestic soybean import is abundant, and the oil mill's开机 rate is expected to rise [45][46][47] 3.2.7 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Some areas in Hebei have lifted the heavy - pollution weather emergency response. The steel price is in a weak and volatile state, and more market - oriented production cuts are needed [48][50][51] 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The starch sugar industry's开机 rate has increased. The starch enterprise is profitable, and the inventory pressure is acceptable [52] 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - The red date price in the Hebei market is weak and stable. The new jujubes are about to be harvested, and the market game is intense [54][56] 3.2.10 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The feed enterprise's corn inventory days have increased, and the deep - processing enterprise's inventory has decreased slightly. The 01 contract is expected to be weak in the short - term and rebound in the medium - long term [57][58] 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Chile's copper export increased in October. The copper price is affected by macro - expectations and inventory structures, and it is recommended to go long on dips [59][62][63] 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - A company has reduced its stake in Tianhe光能. The polysilicon spot price is under pressure, and it is recommended to short on rallies in November [64][65][66] 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The Sichuan and Yunnan silicon enterprises'开机 rate is weak. The industrial silicon price may fluctuate, and it is recommended to go long on dips [67][68] 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - A company has won a large lithium project contract. The lithium demand is strong, but the supply is also increasing. The short - term price will fluctuate, and consider shorting on rallies in the medium - term [69][72][74] 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Indonesia plans to complete the feasibility study of 18 downstream projects in December and has stopped approving some nickel intermediate product plants. The nickel price is affected by market sentiment and fundamentals, and pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips [75][77][78] 3.2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead is at a discount. The recycled lead industry is in the stage of large - scale resumption of production, and the short - term supply and demand will be strong. Consider shorting on rallies in the medium - term [79][80] 3.2.17 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc is at a premium. The LME zinc may face a short - squeeze risk, and the domestic zinc inventory has decreased. Consider shorting on rallies in the medium - term [81] 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The EU carbon price is affected by weather and power - price policies and will fluctuate in the short - term [82][83] 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The US oil rig count remains unchanged. The US will exempt Hungary from sanctions on importing Russian oil. The oil price is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [84][85][86] 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - The PTA spot price has increased, and the futures market is affected by supply - side factors. The short - term futures will be volatile and strong, but be cautious about the upside space [87][88] 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chip) - The bottle chip factory's export price is stable. The supply is stable, the demand is in the off - season, and consider shorting the far - month processing margin on rallies [91][92] 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Urea) - India has issued a new urea import tender. The urea futures have rebounded due to export policy changes and replenishment demand. It will fluctuate within a certain range [93][94] 3.2.23 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - The new - shipbuilding market is active. The SCFI index has declined, and the container freight rate will fluctuate in the short - term, and monitor the spot price changes [95][96]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock index futures market is experiencing an upward trend with sector - specific contributions to the rise. The basis of stock index futures has weakened, and the deep discount pattern of IC and IM is expected to continue. For the bond futures market, the IRR of bond futures has declined, and the cross - period spread is oscillating strongly. The interest rate timing signal predicts a decline in interest rates. In the commodity market, the performance of various commodity factors and tracking strategies varies, and the overall commodity trend may be highly volatile due to external macro - factors [3][4][58]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index Futures Market Review - The market is oscillating upwards. Different sectors contribute to the rise of different stock index futures, such as banks and electronics for the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, and power equipment and banks for the CSI 300 [3]. - The trading volume of each variety has decreased month - on - month, and the basis has weakened. IH maintains a premium, IF a shallow discount, and IC and IM a deep discount [4]. Strategy Recommendations - **Basis Strategy**: When the market sentiment drives the discount to converge, pay attention to the opportunity to build positions for cross - period positive arbitrage. The roll - over strategy recommends going long on the near - term contract and short on the far - term contract [4]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Last week, cross - period arbitrage strategies made profits, with the annualized basis rate, positive arbitrage, and momentum factors earning 0.4%, 0.9%, and 0.8% respectively (6 - times leverage). The cross - variety arbitrage time - series synthetic strategy lost 0.3% last week. The latest signal recommends an empty position for the IC/IF pair and 100% long IM and short IC [5]. - **Timing Strategy**: The daily timing strategies generally made profits last week, with the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 losing 0.6%, and the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 earning 1.1%, 1.1%, and 1.5% respectively. The timing model is bullish on the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 and bearish on the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 [6]. Roll - over Return - The roll - over return of stock index futures varies by year and period. For example, in 2025, the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 had a - 0.4% return for the current - month roll - over to the next - month contract [26]. Bond Futures Weekly Strategy Focus - **Basis and Cross - Period**: The IRR of bond futures has declined this week, and the cross - period spread is oscillating strongly. The positive arbitrage space is limited, and it is expected to maintain an oscillating trend [58]. - **Interest Rate Timing and Hedging Signal**: The interest rate timing signal predicts a decline in interest rates, with macro, production, inventory, and price factors all being bearish. High - duration varieties are recommended for hedging [58][59]. - **Futures Timing Strategy**: The multi - factor timing strategy signal is neutral, with the basis factor and high - frequency factor being bullish and the spread factor and volume - price factor being bearish [58]. - **Futures Cross - Variety Arbitrage Strategy**: The latest signals of the bond futures cross - variety arbitrage strategies TS - T and T - TL are neutral [58]. Commodity CTA Factor Performance - Last week, the performance of various commodity factors varied. The term - structure factors had an average increase of 0.2%, and some volume - price trend and position factors also rose. The value factor Val_halfyear had a large decline. The overall commodity trend may be highly volatile due to external macro - factors, and medium - to long - term trend - following CTA strategies may face risks [73][75]. Tracking Strategy Performance - Different tracking strategies have different performance indicators. For example, the CWFT strategy has an annualized return of 9.2%, a Sharpe ratio of 1.58, and a Calmar ratio of 1.05 [73].