1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for styrene is "Oscillating" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Pure benzene valuation has shifted from continuous decline to an oscillating phase, and attention should be paid to whether the demand side can create an expected difference. Styrene's supply - demand structure is expected to weaken marginally in stages, with the variable being ethane supply. In the second half of the year, pure benzene's supply - demand is generally balanced, with BZN likely to first rebound and then bottom out again. Styrene's non - integrated profit margin may weaken quarter - on - quarter, and the idea of trading spreads should change from widening at low levels to range - bound operations [1][2][3] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1上半年核心交易逻辑在于纯苯估值压缩 - In the first half of 2025, styrene prices fluctuated. In the first quarter, driven by positive expectations, prices initially rose, but then supply increased and pure benzene demand was over - drawn, causing prices to decline. In the second quarter, styrene's supply - demand was not bad, but pure benzene's valuation continued to decline, and styrene's absolute price mainly followed oil price fluctuations [15][16] 3.2统苯估值压降的趋势何时能够反转? 3.2.1上半年纯苯估值承压下行的成因 - In the first half of 2025, pure benzene supply was abundant due to a significant increase in imports. The high import volume was caused by the weakening of the US Gulf pure benzene structure and the weakening of European chemical demand. Although pure benzene demand was not bad overall, the growth rate of non - styrene downstream demand slowed down, leading to poor seasonal de - stocking and making pure benzene a short - position target [22][24][26] 3.2.2因其生产特性问题,估值压降对纯苯供应挤出的力度相对较弱 - Due to the by - product nature of pure benzene production, the impact of valuation changes on supply is relatively weak. Petroleum benzene supply is stable, and marginal reduction mainly depends on disproportionation load reduction. The supply of hydro - benzene is also difficult to squeeze due to the by - product nature of its raw material, crude benzene. There are still new pure benzene production capacities to be released in the second half of the year [30][35][40] 3.2.3纯苯直接下游正在回归、后续将考验终端承接能力 - The weighted output of pure benzene's direct downstream is expected to increase, which will improve the supply - demand structure marginally. However, the sustainability of the improvement depends on the terminal's ability to absorb the products. Different downstream sectors of pure benzene will show differentiation in the second half of the year, with an estimated weighted demand growth rate of around 5.5% [47][49] 3.2.4纯苯下半年供需预期整体较为平衡,BZN或从持续下行转为震荡运行 - In the second half of the year, pure benzene's supply - demand is generally balanced, with an estimated supply growth rate of around 5.8% - 5.9% and a demand growth rate of around 5.5%. The BZN is expected to shift from continuous decline to an oscillating pattern, with a possible bottom - seeking after a short - term rebound. The lower limit of BZN is expected to be around $90 - 120/ton [54][55] 3.3上半年苯乙烯格局优于纯苯,但也推动部分长停装置回归压制远月预期 3.3.1苯乙烯供应面的压力下半年或继续增加 - In the first half of 2025, styrene supply was high in the first quarter and decreased in the second quarter due to maintenance. In the second half of the year, supply pressure is expected to increase as existing production resumes, long - shut - down plants restart, and new capacities are put into operation. The potential variable is the supply of ethane [60][61] 3.3.2上半年苯乙烯下游3S增量亮眼,下半年关注家电端贡献是否会边际转弱 - In the first half of 2025, styrene demand grew by about 13%, mainly driven by the growth of ABS and PS. The reasons include the low base in 2024 and the boost from national subsidies and early export rush. In the second half of the year, the contribution of the home appliance sector may weaken due to the possible adjustment of national subsidies and the pressure on home appliance exports. However, the export of intermediate products such as ABS and PS may offset some of the negative impact [67][70][73] 3.3.3地产端再度回归疲态、静待政策加码 - In the first quarter of 2025, the real estate market showed signs of recovery, but in the second quarter, it weakened again. The decline in the completion end of real estate has dragged down styrene demand. The progress of special bond acquisitions of idle land and the optimization of existing policies should be monitored [82][86][90] 3.3.4总结：下半年苯乙烯绝对价格或更多依赖成本端纯苯指引 - In the second half of the year, styrene's supply pressure will increase, and demand growth may slow down to 5% - 8%. The non - integrated profit margin is expected to weaken, and the absolute price of styrene is likely to be more influenced by pure benzene [94][95] 3.4投资建议 - For pure benzene, consider going long on BZN near the lower limit as the risk - reward ratio may be better. For styrene, change the trading strategy from widening spreads at low levels to range - bound operations, with the EB - BZ spread expected to be in the range of 1200 - 1500 yuan/ton (fluctuating with ethylene and pure benzene prices). Also, pay attention to the resolution of the ethane import issue [3][96][97]

Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "Bearish" [7] Core Views - In the second half of 2025, the stagflation pressure in the US will rise significantly, and the Fed will release liquidity to balance the economy, leading to a weaker US dollar with an expected weakening center around 95 [5][95] - The market volatility in the second half of the year will be significantly higher than that in the first half, so holding safe - haven assets is recommended [5][96] Summary by Directory 1. United States: Severe Economic Pressure and Worsening Treasury Bond Issues 1.1 Labor Market: Structural Resilience Persists, but Medium - term Weakness is Inevitable - In H1 2025, the US labor market's resilience exceeded expectations, with a high - level new employment center, slowing wage growth, and a low unemployment rate [17] - The labor market shows insensitivity to the economic cycle, and in the future, it may enter an "atypical recession" with a linear decline in employment and a possible sudden acceleration of weakness [19] - The Phillips curve may flatten in H2 due to inflation, and the labor market may resist inflation, increasing fluctuations [21][23] 1.2 The Prospect of US Economic Stagflation is Becoming More Apparent - The current decline in US inflation data is a reflection of past economic fundamentals. The potential pressure of reciprocal tariffs will push up inflation expectations, and the long - term inflation pressure will be significant [26] - The US economy's downward pressure is increasing, with the deterioration of the household sector's cash - flow and the long - standing problem of credit tightening [28][30] - The pressure of stagflation is shifting from expectation to reality. The end of the inventory - replenishment phase in the corporate sector and the intensification of reciprocal tariffs will exacerbate stagflation [36][37] 1.3 US Dollar: A Clearly Weakening Currency in H2 - In H1 2025, the market accepted the weak - dollar cycle as the high - growth of the US economy, the basis of the strong - dollar cycle, no longer exists [40] - The US Treasury bond issue will become more prominent in H2. The solution to the deficit problem requires liquidity injection, which will lead to a weaker US dollar [44][46] 2. Eurozone and Japan 2.1 Eurozone: Marginal Improvement in Economic Fundamentals - In 2025, the Eurozone's real GDP growth rebounded, inflation continued to decline, and the manufacturing industry recovered faster than the service industry, driving up the debt levels of residents and enterprises [48][57] - The EU's "Re - arming Europe Plan" with 800 billion euros in spending has changed the economic structure of the Eurozone, increasing manufacturing capacity [57] - The ECB will continue to cut interest rates, and fiscal policy will also be strengthened. The euro's appreciation trend will be enhanced [66] 2.2 Japan: Persistent Appreciation Trend - Japan's economic fundamentals have improved, with consumption driving GDP growth. However, there is a divergence between strong consumption and relatively weak industrial production [69][75] - From a fundamental perspective, the yen has a basis for appreciation, but a strong yen will bring challenges to foreign trade and liquidity. The Bank of Japan needs to make a choice on interest - rate policy [85][86] - Considering the US - Japan trade negotiation and market expectations, the yen is likely to appreciate, but the speed of appreciation needs to be controlled [86] 3. Global Macro: Embracing a More Uncertain Second Half - Trump's policies in 2025 have broken the strong - dollar cycle, and the de - globalization narrative has emerged, with the US Treasury bond issue coming to the fore [87] - The extreme and inconsistent policies are due to populism, which exposes the fragility of the US economy and leads to stagflation [87] - Geopolitical risks will rise in H2, which will have a short - term positive impact on the US dollar but a long - term negative impact. The US dollar will continue to weaken [91][92] 4. Investment Recommendations 4.1 The Weak - dollar Trend is Obvious - In H2 2025, the US stagflation pressure will rise, and the Fed will release liquidity, leading to a weaker US dollar with a center around 95 [5][95] 4.2 Continued Recommendation of Safe - haven Assets - In H2, market contradictions and conflicts will accelerate, increasing volatility. Holding safe - haven assets is recommended [5][96]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for copper is bullish [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The shortage at the raw material end continues, with limited cold material supplements, leading to a significant downward adjustment of the marginal growth of global copper mine production in 2025 to 280,000 - 380,000 metric tons. The pressure at the raw material end will further reduce processing fees and impact downstream industries. - The processing profit of the smelting industry continues to deteriorate, with an initial risk of industry - wide losses. The scope of active production cuts overseas is expanding, and the market is focusing on domestic smelting trends. The marginal growth of global refined copper production in 2025 is expected to be 500,000 - 600,000 metric tons. - The marginal growth of traditional demand is weakening, the new - energy demand is slowing down, while the demand from emerging industries is growing strongly. The marginal growth of global copper demand in 2025 is adjusted down to 700,000 - 800,000 metric tons. - Macro factors center around the weakening of the US dollar, and policies from various countries are expected to stimulate the economy. The fundamentals are in a stalemate, with greater potential for supply constraints. In a low - inventory state, the regional balance needs time to recover. It is recommended to focus on structural market trends, with the low point of copper prices in the second half of the year unlikely to break through 74,000 yuan/ton, and the high point may exceed 83,000 yuan/ton [2][3][4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Raw Material End 3.1.1 Copper Concentrate - In Chile, the copper supply is in a recovery cycle. From January to April, the cumulative copper production increased by 3.5% year - on - year to 1.752 million metric tons, with an absolute increase of 59,000 metric tons. The government expects a 3% increase in production in 2025 to 5.672 million metric tons, but there are uncertainties. Large - scale projects like Escondida have significant production increases, while some mines like Collahuasi and Anglo American Sur have lower - than - normal production [19][21] - In Peru, the copper mine is in a restorative growth period. From January to April, the cumulative copper production increased by 4.9% year - on - year to 887,000 metric tons, with an absolute increase of about 41,000 metric tons. The government expects the annual production to be around 2.8 million metric tons. Some projects have production differentiations, and the government's policies to stimulate production have limited effects for now [29][31] - In the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the copper production was in a high - growth period but has faced challenges this year. Geopolitical issues, infrastructure weaknesses, and resource nationalism have affected production. The output of the Kamoa - Kakula project has been significantly reduced, and the production forecast for 2025 has been greatly lowered [34][35][36] - In China, copper production has been in a recovery phase since 2022 but is constrained by factors such as ore grade decline and aging mines. The marginal growth of global copper mine production in 2025 is estimated to be 250,000 - 350,000 metric tons, with different trends in different regions [37][40] - From a company perspective, the production of major mining companies in 2024 increased by 3.3% to 17.05 million metric tons. In 2025, the growth is expected to be 2.1% to 17.41 million metric tons, mainly due to disruptions in African mines [42][43] - Regarding new projects, the marginal contribution of new global copper mines before 2028 is decreasing. Policy instability and external environment changes are the main risks for project delays or cancellations [46] 3.1.2 Recycled Materials - Overseas, due to the shortage of copper concentrate, smelters are relying more on cold materials. European smelters are competing for scrap copper, and India is increasing scrap copper imports. The US has new scrap - copper - based processing enterprises, and its scrap copper export ratio is expected to decline [50][52] - In China, smelters' demand for cold materials has increased, but supply has been restricted. From January to May, scrap copper imports decreased by nearly 2% year - on - year to 962,000 physical tons, mainly due to tariff policies and overseas demand. Domestic scrap copper supply is also constrained by fiscal and tax policies and profit margins. The supply of anode copper has also decreased [55][59] 3.1.3 Conclusions and Thoughts - The marginal growth of global copper mine production in 2024 was 530,000 - 550,000 metric tons, and it is adjusted down to 280,000 - 380,000 metric tons in 2025. The copper raw material gap in China is expected to widen in 2025, and copper prices can regulate cold material supply. Attention should be paid to domestic and overseas policies [62][63] 3.2 Smelting End 3.2.1 Domestic Market - The shortage of copper concentrate has led to a decline in processing fees. If the long - term processing fee is set at a low level, Chinese smelters may face industry - wide losses. Sulfuric acid price increases have provided some support, but there are uncertainties. The planned production increase of major listed smelters in 2025 is to 8.5 million tons, but raw material shortages may limit production. The marginal growth of China's refined copper production in 2025 is expected to be 600,000 - 700,000 metric tons [70][77][83] 3.2.2 Overseas Market - In Chile, the decline in refined copper production is significant, with an expected 10% decrease in 2025. Similar situations exist in Mexico. Overseas smelters are showing a trend of production cuts, mainly due to raw material constraints and processing fee decreases. The risk of a decline in overseas refined copper production in 2025 is increasing [86][91][92] 3.2.3 Conclusions and Thoughts - The marginal growth of global refined copper production in 2024 was 650,000 - 700,000 metric tons, and it is expected to be 500,000 - 600,000 metric tons in 2025. The transfer of the raw material shortage to smelters takes time. Attention should be paid to the impact of sulfuric acid prices and cold materials on smelters [94][95] 3.3 Demand End 3.3.1 Macro Level - From an economic cycle perspective, the global economy is in a transition from "recession" to "recovery," with different economic situations in different countries. The US economy shows signs of stagflation, and the Fed's monetary policy shift is uncertain. The US dollar's credit cycle is weakening, and copper's financial attributes are expected to increase [97] - From a manufacturing cycle perspective, the global manufacturing PMI is around 50, and the recovery will be more differentiated. Tariff policies are the core external factor affecting manufacturing [102] - In the long - term, the US fiscal deficit is expected to expand, and the US dollar will continue to depreciate. Copper will play a more important role in resource currency, and investment in copper will provide support [102] 3.3.2 Traditional Demand: China - In the power industry, grid investment is expected to grow steadily, with a focus on UHV projects and distribution network upgrades. Power source investment growth is slowing down, but there may be new drivers in 2026. Overseas exports of electrical equipment have been strong, but are affected by external policies [106][112][115] - In the home appliance industry, domestic air - conditioner sales and production increased in the first four months of 2025. Domestic sales may decline in the third quarter, while overseas sales are relatively strong but face risks from tariff policies. High inventory levels may limit production [117][119] - In the real estate industry, policies are being strengthened, but the industry is still in a bottom - building phase and will drag down copper demand this year, with a possible return to positive demand in 2026 - 2027 [120][121] - In the transportation industry, domestic automobile production is growing strongly, with new - energy vehicles as the main growth driver. However, it is affected by policy subsidies and consumer income expectations. China's automobile exports are facing bottlenecks [122][124] - The marginal growth of China's traditional copper demand in 2024 was 255,000 - 475,000 metric tons, and it is adjusted down to 132,000 - 392,000 metric tons in 2025, with risks in the second half of the year [132] 3.3.3 Traditional Demand: Overseas - In the US, policies have increased inflation expectations and economic uncertainties. The real estate and durable - goods consumption markets show a downward trend but not a significant decline. The US government's policies on power infrastructure and renewable energy will drive copper demand growth [133][136][137]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for US stocks is "volatile" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US economy shows signs of stagflation, and the prospects of fiscal and monetary policies are gradually becoming clear. Although Trump's policies have had less - than - expected impacts, they have changed the market trading logic. The stagflation risk persists, and the path to a soft - landing through interest rate cuts has become more complicated. The high valuation of US stocks is being challenged [1][19]. - Corporate earnings are expected to weaken, but the growth rate remains resilient. The market has continuously lowered its earnings expectations, but it is still estimated that the annual earnings growth rate can reach 9%. The valuation expansion space is limited due to high macro - environment uncertainty [2][69]. - In the third quarter, US stocks still face pressure, with the downside risk higher than the upside risk. However, with the implementation of macro - policies, there is a chance for US stocks to rise in a volatile manner in the second half of the year. It is recommended to use valuation as an anchor and seize the opportunity to allocate assets at low prices during macro - event shocks [3][72] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 2025H1 US Stock Market Review: Macro - Policy Games Increase Market Volatility - In early 2025, after Trump took office, the market traded around his policy paths. In the first quarter, the focus was on reducing government spending, which initially worried the market about a potential recession. However, the actual reduction was far less than expected. Since April, the threat of reciprocal tariffs has affected market sentiment, but the market recovered quickly as tariff negotiations eased [14]. - Although Trump's policies had less - than - expected implementation, they changed the market trading logic. The emergence of DeepSeek weakened the US's technological monopoly, shaking the "American Exceptionalism" and challenging the high valuation of US stocks [19] 3.2 2025H2 US Macroeconomic Outlook 3.2.1 The US Economy Shows Stagflation Characteristics - The US economy is likely to experience mild stagflation in the second half of the year, with the economy continuing to decline and inflation rising. The stock market has not fully priced in the economic downturn [20]. - Hard economic data has not deteriorated significantly, but soft data has been under pressure. Trade policy uncertainties have increased short - term fluctuations in soft data, leading to deviations in private - sector investment and consumption behavior. Consumer and business confidence have been affected, and the "import - rush" effect has overdrafted future consumption and investment capabilities [23]. - Consumer confidence and inflation expectations have fluctuated with trade policies. Although consumer spending has not declined significantly, the growth rate of durable - goods consumption has slowed down after the "import - rush" effect faded. The employment market is gradually weakening, and corporate investment and inventory growth are expected to decline [25][34][43] 3.2.2 The Prospects of Fiscal and Monetary Policies are Gradually Becoming Clear - The effective tariff rate in the US has declined but remains at a high level. After the expiration of the tariff suspension in July, the tariff policy will become clearer. Whether the tariff is extended or implemented, it will help reduce market uncertainty [56]. - The US fiscal policy is still in an expansionary phase. The "Great Beauty Act" is expected to increase the deficit in the next decade. The US government's debt - ceiling issue may lead to an increase in bond supply in the third quarter, increasing the risk of a simultaneous decline in stocks and bonds [58][59][60]. - The Federal Reserve is likely to adopt a cautious approach in the third quarter, waiting to assess the impact of macro - policies on inflation and growth. The market still expects the Fed to cut interest rates, but the rate - cut trading will be more complicated in the second half of the year due to rising inflation [64] 3.3 2025H2 Outlook for US Stock Indexes 3.3.1 Corporate Earnings Expectations Weaken, but Growth Rate Remains Resilient - Affected by the macro - environment, the earnings growth rate of US stocks has reversed its upward trend. The market expects the earnings growth rate to fall to single - digit levels in the next three quarters. However, the performance of corporate earnings in the first quarter was acceptable [67]. - The technology, communication services, utilities, and pharmaceutical sectors have maintained an EPS growth rate of over 10%. The technology sector is still the main driver of net profit growth. Although the market has continuously lowered its earnings expectations, EPS has maintained an upward trend, providing support for the stock index [69] 3.3.2 Valuation Space is Limited and Difficult to Expand Significantly - Since the beginning of the year, the valuation levels of the three major stock indexes have moved away from historical extremes. However, due to high macro - environment uncertainty, the valuation is unlikely to expand significantly. The static valuation is expected to range between 22 and 26 times [70] 3.4 Investment Suggestions - In the third quarter, US stocks still face pressure from tariff negotiations, fiscal policy uncertainties, geopolitical risks, and increased bond supply. The downside risk is higher than the upside risk. - In the second half of the year, with the implementation of macro - policies, there is a chance for US stocks to rise in a volatile manner. It is recommended to use valuation as an anchor and allocate assets at low prices during macro - event shocks. In a pessimistic scenario, the S&P 500 is expected to be supported around 5100; in a neutral scenario, it will operate around 6050; and in an optimistic scenario, it can reach 6400 [3][72][73]

日度报告——综合晨报 鲍威尔称不排除提前降息可能，沪指首收复 3400 点 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-06-25 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 鲍威尔国会听证会证词：有条件等一等，再考虑利率行动 鲍威尔国会表态较为鹰派，对于短期降息预期进行否定，这意 味着美联储 7 月降息可能性不高，美元短期震荡。 宏观策略（股指期货） 沪指首收复 3400 点 综 受以伊战争缓和挺火的影响，股市风险偏好回升，上证指数放 量上涨，新兴概念崛起。展望后市，高风险偏好或仍将维持， 高位震荡格局延续。 合 农产品（豆油/菜油/棕榈油） 晨 GAPKI：印尼 4 月棕榈油期末库存增加至 304 万吨 报 印尼 4 月大幅累库，油脂市场持续回调。 有色金属（铅） 6 月 23 日【LME0-3 铅】贴水 24.26 美元/吨 需求即将来到旺季前期的验证节点，在需求未得到充分验证前， 供应侧扰动对铅价的驱动或仍为间歇性，仍需关注月底下游大 厂后续排产。 能源化工（原油） API 原油库存下降 | 黄玉萍 | 资深分析师 | （农产品） | | --- | --- | --- | | 从业资格号： [Table_A ...

半年度报告-国债期货 因势利导，进退有度 国 债 期 债市对于经济形势已有充分认识，研究基本面的主要意义是判 断债市是否会出现趋势性转熊的风险。下半年，美国的财政政 策力度并未很强，在贸易摩擦的影响下，滞胀压力会逐渐显性 化。国内方面，外需和内需均存在着自发走弱的压力，财政发 力必要性凸显。财政以托底、转型为主，其应在 Q3 中后期 Q4 中前期温和发力，最终经济增速先降后升，波动整体不大。供 强于求的问题难以在短期内解决，通胀水平偏低运行。基本面 利多国债的格局不会发生变化，下半年中前期的利多会更明显 一点，但由于经济增速波动不大，通胀进一步下降的概率也不 高，基本面对于债市的进一步利多也有限。 货 ★货币与债市估值：相似的政策节奏，不同的心态与估值 货币政策与资金面对于债市的影响更为直接，其决定了债市的 节奏。稳汇率压力明显下降的背景下，货币政策整体的基调是 适度宽松的，8-9 月降息概率较高，流动性整体会处于偏宽松的 状态上，但是若利率快速下行，央行或将提示利率风险。Q3 政 策节奏和往年类似，但债市和过去今年存在多方面的差异：一 是心态更趋谨慎；二是负债端扰动不时出现，机构行为不如往 年积极；三是市场 ...

半年度报告——股指期货 波动压平下寻找结构性机会 [★Ta2b0l2e5_S下um半m年a国ry]内经济展望：经济平稳增长 股 外需：出口增速下滑但存在韧性。美国对华关税不确定性大，且 自身需求收缩。但非美国家对中国出口支撑加大将形成对冲。 内需：经济新动能扩张和老动能走弱并存。政策如何发力成为下 半年看点。财政政策更侧重消费、生育、养老补贴等方向以及新 质生产力投资扩容。货币政策预计仍旧是跟随式降息且更侧重结 构性货币政策工具。消费方面存在补贴加码的需求。而地产转弱 拖累经济，下半年需加大止跌回稳的政策呵护力度。 通胀：看点仍在供给侧。若能加快转型升级、优化产业布局、加 指 强市场监管，则有望在四季度低基数下实现跌幅收窄。 期 ★2025 下半年 A 股展望：上有顶下有底，行情呈结构性 货 今年是典型的风险偏好驱动市场上行的一年。国内科技新兴产业 的爆发为这一过程加速，国家队等救市资金的入场形成了负β截 断效应，支撑了高风险偏好资金的持续活跃。当前 A 股各指数的 估值水平已经不低，且盈利预期依然在低位徘徊，故指数上行存 在压力。在居民存款入市的初始阶段，我们预计下半年 A 股市场 延续分化特征，即大盘指数 ...

半年度报告——金融工程 国债期货套保、择时与套利策略表现 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025 年 6 月 24 日 ★ 市场概况与策略回顾 2025 年国债期货成交持仓方面的主要变化为超长国债期货 成交量的大幅上行与两年期国债期货持仓量的大幅上行，短 久期国债期货成交持仓比显著下降成为今年主要套保品种。 金 融 工 套保组合表现：不同品种国债期货空头套保效果均好于买入 并持有基准，最优套保组合为高久期现券加低久期国债期货 套保组合。套保效果方面，国债 5-7 年指数使用 TS 套保组合 净值达到年化收益 7.1%,，夏普比率 4.26，最大回撤仅 0.2%， TF 套保组合年化收益 3.4%，T 套保组合年化收益 2.0%，均 由于买入并持有的年化收益 1.5%。不同品种套保效果横向比 较 TS 的套保效果最优，其原因前期曲线走陡以及 TS 空头久 期中性基差 carry 相对较高。 程 择时与套利策略表现：跨品种套利策略今年上半年表现较 佳，择时策略整体表现一般，其中超长债表现相对更优。基 于等权配置套利策略与择时策略，2025 年上半年组合最大回 撤有效控制在 1.1%以内，显著改善了择时策略在 ...

半年度报告——天然气 供应再创新高，需求难以承接 | [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] | TTF/JKM/HH:看跌 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 年 6 | 月 | 24 | 日 | [★Ta美bl国e_天Su然mm气a市ry]场——供应再创新高，气电反向驱动： 能 我们最新的平衡表显示 2025 年美国天然气市场并不会存在严重的 供需缺口，直接变成平衡了，原因是气价的大幅上涨刺激了供应的 迅速回归。不仅美国的干气产量在 2025 年创新高，加拿大的天然 气产量也在 2025 年显著回升。高气价不仅导致供应大幅增加，同 时也导致了煤气逆向转换，即煤电对气电形成反向替代。在煤代气 和可再生电力的双重挤压之下，气电需求难以续写此前不断创历史 新高的神话，开始掉头向下。 ★投资建议： 源 ★欧洲需求疲软，累库斜率大幅向上： 与 碳 中 和 除了取暖季，尤其是 2 月需求较好之外，其他时间需求并不强势， 甚至在 2 季度，总量需求还不及 2024 年同期。分领域来看，气电 需求上升更多是由风电和水电不足所致，而并非来自于总量需求增 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The cease - fire between Israel and Iran has led to a significant drop in oil prices and a weakening of the US dollar index, while increasing market risk appetite [2][6]. - Gold prices are under pressure due to the cease - fire and the potential for a July interest rate cut [3][17][18]. - Different commodity markets show various trends. For example, the agricultural product market has inventory changes, the black metal market has weak demand, and the energy - chemical market is affected by geopolitical factors and supply - demand relationships [4][32][56]. 3. Summaries by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The National Federation of Industry and Commerce Automobile Dealers Chamber of Commerce called for optimizing rebate policies and shortening the rebate settlement cycle [13]. - Vice - Premier He Lifeng attended a political consultative meeting and emphasized economic reform tasks [14]. - The Deputy Minister of Finance met with the China - US Chamber of Commerce delegation to discuss Sino - US economic and trade relations [15]. - Investment advice: Balance asset allocation [16]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Bowman supports a July interest rate cut if inflation is under control [17]. - Trump announced a phased full - scale cease - fire between Israel and Iran [17]. - Gold prices are weakening, with a risk of decline due to reduced geopolitical tensions and the potential for a rate cut [18][19]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru aims to win a majority in the Senate election and ensure energy supply [20]. - A Fed official supports a July interest rate cut [20]. - Trump announced a temporary cease - fire between Israel and Iran, leading to a weakening of the US dollar index [21]. - Investment advice: Expect the US dollar index to decline in the short term [21]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The preliminary US S&P Global Services PMI in June was 53.1, and the manufacturing PMI was 52 [22]. - Iran's attack on a US military base was less than expected [23]. - Fed Vice - Chair Bowman hinted at a possible July interest rate cut [24]. - Investment advice: Expect US stocks to oscillate weakly [24]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 2205 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations [25]. - Yield is approaching the previous low, and institutions with floating profits may take profit. The bond market is expected to oscillate weakly at the beginning of the week and strengthen later [25]. - Investment advice: Long - position holders can continue to hold, and consider buying on dips [26]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Brazil exported 903 million tons of soybeans in the first three weeks of June, with a lower daily average export volume than last year [27]. - The good - quality rate of US soybeans remained the same as the previous week [28]. - Domestic oil mills' soybean meal inventory continued to rise [29]. - Investment advice: The market lacks a basis for a sharp rise, with short - term prices oscillating. Focus on US soybean weather and Sino - US relations [29]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Malaysian palm oil production increased by 2.5% from June 1 - 20 [30]. - Palm oil and soybean oil inventories in China increased [30][31]. - The bullish sentiment in the vegetable oil market has weakened, and the increase in palm oil production may lead to inventory accumulation [31]. - Investment advice: Consider buying put options, and beware of the impact of geopolitical factors on the vegetable oil market [31]. 3.2.3 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - Port steam coal inventories are increasing, and the market has weak demand [32]. - Coal prices have slightly rebounded, and the demand for power plants has seasonally recovered [33]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to weather and port transaction conditions [33]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - From January to May, power grid project investment reached 204 billion yuan [33]. - Iron ore prices are oscillating, with weak demand in the off - season and limited price rebound [33]. - Investment advice: Expect iron ore prices to remain weak [34]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The by - product market of corn starch has a complex situation, with some prices stable and others showing signs of decline [35]. - Investment advice: Observe the market, as the CS - C spread is complex [35]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Corn prices in Northeast China have risen [36]. - Investment advice: Observe old - crop contracts, and consider shorting new - crop contracts at high prices [36]. 3.2.7 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Malaysia cancelled anti - dumping duties on steel from South Korea and Vietnam [36]. - Five major construction central enterprises' new contract value in the first five months exceeded 2.9 trillion yuan [37]. - Steel prices are oscillating, with weak demand in the off - season and uncertain future trends [37]. - Investment advice: Short - term steel prices will oscillate, and consider hedging on price rebounds [38]. 3.2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Silicon wafer prices are falling, and the polysilicon market has weak demand [39][40]. - Investment advice: Consider short - term shorting and long - term going long, and pay attention to the 08 - 09 positive spread opportunity [41]. 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The number of operating 97 - high - silicon factories has decreased [42]. - Industrial silicon production is increasing, with weak demand and expected price oscillations at a low level [42]. - Investment advice: Consider shorting on price rebounds and pay attention to supply - side changes [43]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME0 - 3 lead is at a discount, and lead ingot inventory has decreased [44][45]. - Lead supply may decrease marginally, and demand is in the off - season [45]. - Investment advice: Observe in the short term and consider buying on dips [46]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME0 - 3 zinc is at a discount, and zinc ingot inventory has decreased [47]. - Zinc prices are oscillating, with an expected oversupply in the fundamentals [47]. - Investment advice: Consider shorting at high prices, and pay attention to spread trading opportunities [48]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - An Indonesian nickel - iron plant may be acquired [49][50]. - Nickel prices are under pressure due to weak demand and expected oversupply [51]. - Investment advice: Observe in the short term and consider shorting on rallies in the medium term [51]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Zhuhai Guanyu received a nomination notice from Dongfeng Nissan [52]. - Lithium carbonate futures prices are under pressure, and new positions are increasing [52]. - Investment advice: Do not chase short positions, consider partial profit - taking for old short positions, and pay attention to the 9 - 11 positive spread opportunity [53]. 3.2.14 Energy - Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The FOB price of Middle - East frozen LPG has increased [55]. - The market's risk premium for LPG is expected to decline [56]. - Investment advice: Expect the LPG futures price to decline [57]. 3.2.15 Energy - Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Iran agreed to a cease - fire, leading to a sharp drop in oil prices [58]. - Investment advice: Oil prices will give back the risk premium [59]. 3.2.16 Energy - Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The caustic soda market in Shandong is weakening, with general sales [60]. - Supply is stable, and demand is weak [61][62]. - Investment advice: The downside space of the caustic soda futures is limited [63]. 3.2.17 Energy - Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp has partially stopped falling and rebounded [64]. - Investment advice: The price increase of pulp futures is expected to be limited [64]. 3.2.18 Energy - Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC powder market price is fluctuating slightly [65]. - Investment advice: The impact of the Middle - East geopolitical issue on PVC prices is expected to be limited [65]. 3.2.19 Energy - Chemicals (PX) - PX prices have slightly increased, and the de - stocking pattern continues [66][67]. - Investment advice: Expect PX prices to oscillate strongly in the short term [68]. 3.2.20 Energy - Chemicals (PTA) - PTA spot prices have decreased, and the basis has weakened [69]. - PTA supply and demand are generally balanced, with a slightly positive outlook [70]. - Investment advice: Expect PTA prices to oscillate strongly in the short term [71]. 3.2.21 Energy - Chemicals (Asphalt) - Asphalt refinery inventories have decreased [72]. - Asphalt prices are affected by oil prices and demand, with an upward risk [72]. - Investment advice: Expect asphalt prices to oscillate upward [73]. 3.2.22 Energy - Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash market is in a weak oscillation [74]. - Investment advice: Consider shorting soda ash at high prices in the medium term [74]. 3.2.23 Energy - Chemicals (Float Glass) - Float glass prices in the Shahe market have slightly adjusted [75]. - With the arrival of the off - season, glass demand will decline, and prices may fall [76]. - Investment advice: The spot price of float glass may decline, and the futures price may be affected by market sentiment [76]. 3.2.24 Energy - Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - Bottle chip factory quotes are mostly stable, with some transactions [77][79]. - Bottle chip production is expected to decrease in July, alleviating supply pressure [79]. - Investment advice: Consider expanding the processing margin of bottle chips on dips and beware of raw material price fluctuations [79]. 3.2.25 Energy - Chemicals (Styrene) - Pure benzene port inventory has increased [80]. - Styrene supply is recovering, and demand is relatively stable [82]. - Investment advice: Styrene's own driving force is limited, and pay attention to the supply and demand of pure benzene and oil price fluctuations [82]. 3.2.26 Energy - Chemicals (Urea) - The agricultural sector is deploying soybean and oilseed production work [83]. - Urea prices in the domestic market are weakening, with different supply situations in different regions [84]. - Investment advice: The urea futures market may change from a rebound to a weak consolidation, affected by geopolitical and export policies [85].