1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased significantly, while the arrivals increased slightly, with overall supply remaining flat. Steel production decreased significantly this week, and blast furnaces continued to cut production, with expected further reduction in hot metal. Port inventories declined slightly, while steel mill inventories increased slightly, and the port clearance volume weakened. - Overall, supply tightened last week, and demand continued to slow down, with no obvious change in the supply - demand balance. Short - term domestic anti - involution signals are still fermenting, coupled with the expectation of the resurgence of shantytown renovation, which warms up the short - term sentiment. However, in the later stage, the logic of inventory accumulation of building materials in the off - season may still be traded, and there is still room for iron ore prices to correct. - Affected by the warm short - term sentiment, it is expected that iron ore will operate at a high level [2][35]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Price Performance 3.1.1 Futures and Spot Trends Review - Futures market: As of July 10, the price of the iron ore main contract I2509 rebounded this week, closing at 763.5 yuan/ton, with a position of 659,900 lots, an increase of 20,500 lots [6]. - Spot market: This week, the spot prices of imported ores at ports rebounded overall. The price of 64.5% Karara fines at Qingdao Port decreased by 15 yuan/ton to 835 yuan/ton, while the prices of 62.5% BRBF, 61.5% PB fines, 61% Jinbuba fines, and 56.5% Super Special fines increased by 25 yuan/ton, 25 yuan/ton, 25 yuan/ton, and 20 yuan/ton respectively. Among domestic ores, the price of 64% iron concentrate powder in Shahe remained at 750 yuan/ton, while the prices of 66% iron concentrate powder in Tangshan and 65% iron concentrate powder in Anshan increased by 9 yuan/ton and 5 yuan/ton respectively [7]. 3.1.2 Spread Changes - Spot variety spreads: This week, the overall correction range of imported ore prices was relatively consistent, with relatively small spread changes. For example, the spread between Karara fines and PB fines increased by 8 yuan/ton, the spread between PB fines and Super Special fines decreased by 9 yuan/ton, and the spread between BRBF and PB fines decreased by 3 yuan/ton [11][12]. - Futures - spot and futures inter - monthly spreads: This week, the main 2509 contract of iron ore had a premium of 13.5 yuan/ton over the 61.5% PB fines spot at Qingdao Port, an increase of 5.5 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. The spread between 2509 - 2601 was 28 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton compared with the previous week; the spread between 2601 - 2605 was 19.2 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.5 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [15]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Situation Analysis 3.2.1 Supply - Overseas ore shipments and domestic arrivals: As of July 4, the weekly shipment from Australia was 1.5852 million tons, and that from Brazil was 0.5789 million tons, with a total of 2.1641 million tons, a 13.6% decrease compared with the previous week. Overseas ore shipments have continuously declined from historical highs, and China's future iron ore supply will decrease significantly [22]. - Domestic mine capacity utilization rate: As of June 27, the capacity utilization rate of 126 domestic mines was 62.93%, a decrease of 1.57% compared with the previous week [23]. - Iron ore freight rates: The freight rate from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao (BCI - C3) was 18.47 US dollars, a decrease of 0.3 US dollars compared with the previous week, and the freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao (BCI - C5) was 7.38 US dollars, an increase of 0.24 US dollars compared with the previous week [24]. 3.2.2 Demand - As of July 11, the profitability rate of 247 steel mills slightly increased to 59.74%. However, the blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.31 percentage points to 83.15% compared with the previous week, and the iron - making capacity utilization rate also decreased by 0.39% to 89.9%. The daily average hot metal output continued to decline by 10,400 tons to 239,810 tons this week, reaching the lowest level in 3 months, with the year - on - year increase remaining stable at 0.64%. Although the weekly hot metal output weakened, it was still at a high level in the same period, and steel mills maintained small - scale replenishment. The daily consumption of imported ores by the current sample steel mills was 298,490 tons, a decrease of 23,200 tons compared with the previous week; the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 30.08 days, an increase of 0.43 days compared with the previous week [25][28]. 3.2.3 Inventory - Overseas ore arrivals from the previous rush continued to arrive, but the port operation efficiency was limited. The number of vessels waiting at ports increased by 11 to 103 this week, reaching a two - and - a - half - month high. Steel mills' enthusiasm for picking up goods remained strong. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports nationwide was 13.76589 million tons, a decrease of 112,510 tons compared with the previous week, approaching the lowest level in 14 months. The daily average port clearance volume was 3.1951 million tons, an increase of 2,200 tons; the number of vessels at ports was 99, an increase of 8. - This week, the inventory of imported iron ore in steel mills decreased by 23,200 tons to 298,490 tons compared with the previous week, approaching the lowest level in 3 months, but still higher year - on - year. Steel mills continued small - scale replenishment, and the total inventory of imported iron ore in steel mills increased by 61,070 tons to 8.97964 million tons compared with the previous week. The inventory - to - consumption ratio increased to 30.08 days, reaching a new high since May [29]. 3.3 Summary and Investment Suggestions - This week, the shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased significantly, while the arrivals increased slightly, with overall supply remaining flat. Steel production decreased significantly this week, and blast furnaces continued to cut production, with expected further reduction in hot metal. Port inventories declined slightly, while steel mill inventories increased slightly, and the port clearance volume weakened. - Overall, supply tightened last week, and demand continued to slow down, with no obvious change in the supply - demand balance. Short - term domestic anti - involution signals are still fermenting, coupled with the expectation of the resurgence of shantytown renovation, which warms up the short - term sentiment. However, in the later stage, the logic of inventory accumulation of building materials in the off - season may still be traded, and there is still room for iron ore prices to correct [35].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views - **Stainless Steel**: Policy to address "involution - style" competition and eliminate backward production capacity stabilizes the market, and a slight reduction in July's steel mill production schedule also helps. However, high inventory and capacity pressure remain. With weak downstream consumption and high - cost dynamic decline, it will follow a weak fundamental pattern after short - term macro - driven sentiment fades, with an operating range of 12,000 - 13,000 yuan [2]. - **Nickel**: At a low valuation, short - term industry policies support a bottom - stabilizing. Short - term focuses are on Indonesian mining policy changes and the US employment market. In the long run, the contradiction between profit contraction and capacity expansion will lead to large inventory de - stocking and capacity optimization pressure. The short - term price will run in the weak range of 120,000 - 125,000 yuan [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Pure Nickel & Stainless Steel - **Basis**: The fluctuation amplitude weakens, and the spot - futures price difference narrows. Stainless steel prices are flat compared to last week, with futures at a 50 - yuan discount. Refined nickel prices dropped by 1,000 yuan, and futures are at par [7][9]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of the entire industrial chain is at a historical high. The nickel ore end has moderate inventory, while downstream nickel - iron, stainless steel, and refined nickel inventories are all high. The social total inventory of stainless steel is 1.1675 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.93% [10][11]. - **Production Profit**: Although prices are low and production profits are shrinking, some steel mills' processes still have profits [14]. - **Output and Export**: In June, production decreased but remained at a high historical level, and external demand was strong. Refined nickel's domestic exchange inventory has been transferred overseas, and the proportion of LME nickel from Chinese brands is increasing. Stainless steel warehouse receipts are decreasing due to weak spot markets [17][19]. - **Domestic and Overseas Inventory**: Refined nickel's domestic exchange inventory is transferred overseas, and the proportion of LME nickel from Chinese brands is expanding. Stainless steel warehouse receipts are decreasing due to weak spot markets [19]. 3.2 Nickel - Iron - **Price**: The price of high - nickel iron in the market is 905 - 915 yuan/nickel, a 5 - yuan decrease from last week. The nickel ore price at the mining end is firm, and the cost of Indonesian nickel ore has weakened [27]. - **Production Profit**: Overseas imported nickel - iron profits remain high, while domestic nickel - iron steel mills face pressure from upstream and downstream, with immediate profits showing full - scale losses. Indonesian nickel - iron profits have also decreased. From January to May 2025, China's nickel - iron import volume was 4.516 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.882 million tons or 24.3% [30]. - **Output and Import - Export**: In 2025, the import volume of nickel - iron remains high. From January to May, the total import volume was 4.516 million tons, with 4.404 million tons from Indonesia, a year - on - year increase of 25.6% [32]. 3.3 Nickel Intermediates - **Price**: The total inventory of chromium ore at national ports is 2.994 million tons. South African chromium ore inventory accounts for 85% of the total, a 1% increase from last week [36]. - **Production Profit**: The cost of producing nickel sulfate from nickel hydroxide has increased, and the immediate profit loss has intensified. The cost of producing nickel sulfate from nickel beans has also increased, and the production immediate profit loss has intensified [39]. - **Output**: The production of nickel sulfate from Indonesian MHP and high - ice nickel has increased [41][43]. - **Import Volume**: The import volume data of nickel ore, nickel sulfate, MHP, and high - ice nickel are presented in the report [47][49]. 3.4 Supply and Consumption of Nickel - **Supply**: The total supply of primary nickel in 2024 was 2.464 million tons, with a monthly value of 206,800 tons in a certain month. The total supply of stainless steel from China and Indonesia in 2024 was 4.581 million tons [52]. - **Consumption**: The consumption of primary nickel in China in 2024 was 2.5524 million tons [52].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - This week, the inventory of the five major steel products decreased slightly by 0.35 million tons to 13.3958 million tons, showing a continuous slight decline. Among them, the social inventory decreased slightly, while the steel mill inventory increased slightly by 0.42%. In terms of production, the output of the five major products decreased by 124,000 tons week-on-week. Only the output of medium and heavy plates increased month-on-month, while the output of rebar and wire rods both decreased by more than 2% month-on-month, indicating that the effects of the production restriction policy are gradually emerging. The inventory showed mixed trends, but the apparent demand for the five major products decreased month-on-month, with wire rods and cold-rolled products leading the decline [2]. - In general, steel prices are still prone to pressure during the off-season. The relatively positive factor is that the inventory is at a low level, and there are not many real contradictions. Moreover, recent policy benefits have fermented, and steel mills have increased their production cut efforts. The subsequent reduction in steel production will gradually become apparent, and the industrial fundamentals will improve. Coupled with the strong cost support from raw materials, it is expected that steel prices will maintain a relatively strong operating trend in the short term. The previous low points may become history, but the upside potential still needs to be observed. Attention should be paid to policy developments [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Price Performance 3.1.1 Futures and Spot Price Trends - Futures market: This week, the main rebar contract RB2510 rose significantly, closing at 3,132 yuan/ton, up 47 yuan/ton week-on-week, with a position of 2.23 million lots, a decrease of 7,200 lots. The main hot-rolled coil contract HC2510 also rose significantly, closing at 3,262 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan/ton week-on-week, with a position of 1.5971 million lots, an increase of 1,800 lots [5]. - Spot market: This week, the spot price of rebar shifted upward. As of July 11, the price of HRB400E 20MM in Beijing decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 3,150 yuan/ton compared with last week. The spot price of hot-rolled coils shifted downward. As of July 11, the price of Benxi Steel 5.75*1500*C:Q235B in Tianjin increased by 50 yuan/ton to 3,180 yuan/ton compared with last week [6]. 3.1.2 Spread Changes - Futures-spot spread: This week, the basis of the main rebar contract RB2510 compared with the HRB400E 20MM spot in Shanghai was 67 yuan/ton, a change of -31 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. The basis of the main hot-rolled coil contract HC2510 compared with the 5.5*1500*C:Q235B:Ansteel spot in Shanghai was 18 yuan/ton, a change of -31 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [10]. - Inter-month spread: This week, the spread between RB2601 and RB2510 was 28 yuan/ton, a change of +7 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. The spread between HC2601 and HC2510 was 10 yuan/ton, a change of +1 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [11]. - Rebar-hot rolled coil spread: This week, the spread between HC2510 and RB2510 was 139 yuan/ton, a change of +10 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. The spread between HC2601 and RB2601 was 121 yuan/ton, a change of +4 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [12]. 3.2 Supply and Demand Analysis 3.2.1 Supply - This week, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills surveyed by Mysteel was 83.15%, a decrease of 0.31 percentage points week-on-week and an increase of 0.65 percentage points year-on-year. The profitability rate of steel mills was 59.74%, an increase of 0.43 percentage points week-on-week and an increase of 22.94 percentage points year-on-year. The daily average pig iron output was 2.3981 million tons, a decrease of 10,400 tons week-on-week and an increase of 15,200 tons year-on-year [19]. - This week, the total weekly output of the five major steel products was 8.7272 million tons, a decrease of 124,400 tons week-on-week. The effects of the production restriction policy are gradually emerging. Only the output of medium and heavy plates increased month-on-month, while the output of rebar and wire rods both decreased by more than 2% month-on-month [19]. 3.2.2 Demand - Last week, the US government imposed a "tariff bomb" on 14 countries. US President Trump posted several letters on social media, stating that starting from August 1, import products from 14 countries will be subject to tariffs ranging from 25% to 40%. The tariffs on China remain the same as before. Against the background of the current rush to export, the demand for hot-rolled coils is still stronger than that for rebar. Coupled with the arrival of the seasonal off-season demand for building materials, this pattern is expected to continue for some time. There are signs of easing in the Sino-US trade friction and expectations of future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. It is expected that the implementation path of the off-season logic will be less smooth, and demand will maintain a certain level of resilience [28]. 3.2.3 Inventory - This week, the social inventory of steel products in major cities across the country was 9.1401 million tons, a decrease of 21,200 tons week-on-week. The inventory of steel mills by variety was 4.2557 million tons, an increase of 17,700 tons week-on-week. The total social + steel mill inventory was 13.3958 million tons, a decrease of 350 tons week-on-week. The overall inventory is at a low level compared to the same period, continuing a certain de-stocking trend [33]. 3.2.4 Profit - This week, the profitability rate of 247 steel mills surveyed by Mysteel increased slightly to 59.74%. The cost of electric arc furnace steel mills increased slightly by 15 yuan/ton to 3,262 yuan/ton. The steel price trend was relatively strong, and the price increase of rebar in many regions was greater than that of scrap steel. Profits have rebounded. The average profit of steel mills was -107 yuan/ton, and the valley electricity profit was -4 yuan/ton, an increase of 14 yuan/ton week-on-week [44]. 3.2.5 Raw Material Prices - This week, the prices of major raw materials generally stabilized and rebounded. Among them, the price of Tangshan billet increased by 24 yuan/ton to 2,983 yuan/ton, and the price of 61.5% PB powder increased by 23 yuan/ton to 748 yuan/ton [53]. 3.3 Summary and Investment Suggestions - This week, the inventory of the five major steel products decreased slightly by 0.35 million tons to 13.3958 million tons, showing a continuous slight decline. Among them, the social inventory decreased slightly, while the steel mill inventory increased slightly by 0.42%. In terms of production, the output of the five major products decreased by 124,000 tons week-on-week. Only the output of medium and heavy plates increased month-on-month, while the output of rebar and wire rods both decreased by more than 2% month-on-month, indicating that the effects of the production restriction policy are gradually emerging. The inventory showed mixed trends, but the apparent demand for the five major products decreased month-on-month, with wire rods and cold-rolled products leading the decline [56]. - In general, steel prices are still prone to pressure during the off-season. The relatively positive factor is that the inventory is at a low level, and there are not many real contradictions. Moreover, recent policy benefits have fermented, and steel mills have increased their production cut efforts. The subsequent reduction in steel production will gradually become apparent, and the industrial fundamentals will improve. Coupled with the strong cost support from raw materials, it is expected that steel prices will maintain a relatively strong operating trend in the short term. The previous low points may become history, but the upside potential still needs to be observed. Attention should be paid to policy developments [56].

Monetary Policy Tools - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has implemented various monetary policy tools to achieve its objectives, including open market operations, reserve requirement ratios, and medium-term lending facilities (MLF) [42] - In 2023, the PBOC conducted 12 MLF operations, with a total balance of 70,750 billion yuan by the end of the year, and the MLF interest rate was maintained at 2.50% [45] - The reserve requirement ratio was reduced by 0.25 percentage points in March and September 2023, and by 0.5 percentage points in February 2024, providing approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity [47] Market Impact - The 1-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remained at 3.45%, while the 5-year LPR was reduced by 25 basis points to 3.95% in February 2024, aimed at promoting investment and domestic demand [61] - The PBOC's open market operations saw significant net injections, with a net injection of 13,400 billion yuan in the week ending January 21, 2024 [61] - The PSL (Pledged Supplemental Lending) balance increased by 3,500 billion yuan in December 2023 and by 1,500 billion yuan in January 2024, indicating a strong focus on supporting key economic sectors [61] Structural Policy Tools - Structural monetary policy tools, such as targeted lending facilities, are designed to provide financial support to specific sectors, including agriculture and small enterprises [22] - The PSL has been a significant tool for long-term financing, with total disbursements exceeding 3.6 trillion yuan from 2014 to 2019, and approximately 630 billion yuan in 2022 [26] Economic Context - The PBOC's monetary policy aims to stabilize expectations, support economic recovery, and maintain reasonable liquidity levels in the financial system [37] - The implementation of monetary policy is influenced by fiscal, industrial, and regulatory policies, highlighting the need for a coordinated approach to economic management [22]