Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Core Views - For stainless steel, short - term factors include price increases by Indonesian and Chinese steel mills, a flat term structure, and stable raw material prices and production schedules, with a support level at 12,500 - 12,900 yuan. The future market change depends on the transfer of the main position to the 2601 contract [1]. - For沪镍, in the short - term, there is doubt about the September interest - rate cut and the recent decline with increased positions. In the long - term, it focuses on whether the anti - involution market can improve the fundamentals. The support level is 118,000 - 120,000 yuan [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Pure Nickel & Stainless Steel - **Market Trend**: The market is strengthening, and the discount range is expanding [6]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of the entire industrial chain is at a historical high. The inventory of refined nickel has been transferred overseas, and the proportion of LME nickel from Chinese brands is increasing. The stainless - steel warehouse receipts are decreasing [9][10][20]. - **Production Profit**: The overall production profit has recovered, and some steel - mill processes still have profits [12]. - **Production and Export**: Although the production in July decreased, it remained at a high historical level, and external demand was strong [16]. 2. Ferronickel - **Price**: The price of nickel ore is firm, and the high - nickel ferronickel market price is 920 - 935 yuan/nickel, up 5 yuan from last week [27]. - **Production Profit**: Overseas imported ferronickel remains at a high level. Domestic ferronickel steel mills are under pressure from upstream and downstream, with full - scale losses in immediate profits. The profit of Indonesian ferronickel has also decreased. From January to July 2025, China's total ferronickel imports were 6.393 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.244 million tons or 24.2% [30]. 3. Nickel Intermediate Products - **Price**: The price of nickel ore is firm, and the cost of nickel ore has weakened. The high - nickel ferronickel market price has increased [27]. - **Production Profit**: The cost of producing nickel sulfate from nickel hydroxide and nickel beans has increased, and the loss of immediate profit has intensified [38]. - **Production**: The production of nickel sulfate, Indonesian MHP, and high - ice nickel is presented in the report. - **Import Volume**: The import volumes of nickel ore, nickel sulfate, MHP, high - ice nickel, and nickel matte are shown in the report. 4. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - **Global Stainless - Steel Production**: The report provides data on China's and Indonesia's stainless - steel production, capacity, import, export, and apparent consumption from 2018 to 2024, as well as global stainless - steel production [50]. - **China's Primary Nickel Supply**: Data on China's primary nickel supply, including pure nickel production, net import, ferronickel production, net import, nickel - sulfate production, net import, and nickel - intermediate product net import, are given [50].

铁矿石周度策略报告 铁水高位难降，支撑铁矿价格 核心观点： 本周澳巴发运回落，到港同步走低，整体供应环比收紧；需求方面，铁水产量小幅回升，但幅度不大，铁矿 需求仍显韧性；库存来看，疏港是大幅回升，港口库存小幅增加，钢厂库存基本持平。 综合来看，近期铁矿供应收紧，需求同步韧性足，供需基本面目前平稳。短期内，钢厂利润有望维持在良好 水平，因此短期铁水产量难以深降，对价格有支撑。但仍需警惕宏观政策的不确定性对铁水韧性的影响，预计短 期矿价维持区间震荡。操作上建议铁矿 2601 合约多单继续持有，参考支撑位 750 元/吨。 后市展望：短期高位震荡盘整，长期趋势向上 | 铁矿 | 观点 | 分析 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供应 | 偏多 | 截至 8 月 8 日，澳大利亚周发货 1518.3 万吨，巴西周发货量 730.5 万吨，合计 2248.8 万吨，环比-3%。 | | 需求 | 偏多 | 随着钢厂铁水产量的攀升，本周样本钢厂进口矿日耗回升 0.37 万吨至 298.52 万 吨，而且铁矿价格短线下挫令钢厂采购加速，本周钢厂内进口量库存大增 123.06 万吨 至 9136.4 万吨，创自 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - This week, the inventory of the five major steel products increased by 406,100 tons to 1.41597 million tons, reaching a three - month high. The social and steel mill inventories both increased by nearly 3% week - on - week. Specifically, rebar was the only product with a week - on - week production decline. Its steel mill inventory decreased by 2.41%, social inventory decreased by 6.81%, and total inventory decreased by 5.5%. However, its apparent demand dropped by nearly 10% to 189,940 tons, a record low for the same period in recent years. The social inventory of hot - rolled coils decreased, and the apparent demand increased by 85,400 tons or 2.79% to 314,750 tons [2]. - Overall, this week's industrial data was poor, with obvious characteristics of the off - season demand. Seasonal factors such as high temperatures and heavy rainfall suppressed the consumption of building materials. The apparent demand for the five major steel products decreased significantly, and the inventory accumulation speed of steel products accelerated slightly. In the short term, the steel market shows a pattern of stable supply and weak demand. The supply - demand contradiction of steel is still not strong, and at the same time, raw material prices are firm, providing cost support. It is expected that steel prices will fluctuate at a relatively high level. In terms of operation, it is recommended to go long with a light position on dips. For the rebar 2510 contract, the first support range is 3100 - 3150 [2]. - In the future, steel prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate at a high level, and the long - term upward trend remains unchanged [2]. Summary by Directory Market Review and Price Performance 1.1 Futures and Spot Trends Review - Futures market: This week, the main rebar RB2510 contract fluctuated slightly, closing at 3,189 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan/ton week - on - week, with a position of 1.6365 million lots, an increase of 8,300 lots. The main hot - rolled coil HC2510 contract also fluctuated slightly, closing at 3,432 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton week - on - week, with a position of 1.2918 million lots, a decrease of 136,700 lots [5]. - Spot market: This week, the spot price of rebar moved down. As of August 14, the price of HRB400E 20MM in Beijing decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 3,290 yuan/ton compared with last week. The spot price of hot - rolled coils also moved down. As of August 14, the price of Benxi Steel 5.75*1500*C:Q235B in Tianjin increased by 20 yuan/ton to 3,420 yuan/ton compared with last week [6]. 1.2 Spread Changes - Futures - spot spread: This week, the basis of the main rebar RB2510 contract against the HRB400E 20MM spot in Shanghai was 131 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. The basis of the main hot - rolled coil HC2510 contract against the 5.5*1500*C:Q235B:Ansteel spot in Shanghai was 18 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [11]. - Inter - monthly spread: This week, the spread between RB2601 and RB2510 was 78 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. The spread between HC2601 and HC2510 was - 6 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [12]. - Rebar - hot - rolled coil spread: This week, the spread between HC2510 and RB2510 was 243 yuan/ton, an increase of 28 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. The spread between HC2601 and RB2601 was 159 yuan/ton, an increase of 16 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [13]. Supply and Demand Analysis 2.1 Supply - This week, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills surveyed by Mysteel was 83.59%, a decrease of 0.16 percentage points week - on - week and an increase of 4.75 percentage points year - on - year. The profitability rate of steel mills was 65.8%, a decrease of 2.60 percentage points week - on - week and an increase of 61.04 percentage points year - on - year. The daily average pig iron output was 2.4066 million tons, an increase of 34,000 tons week - on - week and an increase of 118,900 tons year - on - year [21]. - The weekly output of the five major steel products totaled 871,630 tons, an increase of 2,420 tons week - on - week. Among them, rebar was the only product with a week - on - week production decline [21]. - The profitability rate of 247 steel mills decreased by 2.6% to 65.8%, the blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.16% to 83.59%, the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate increased by 0.13 percentage points to 90.22% week - on - week, and the daily average pig iron output increased slightly by 34,000 tons to 2.4066 million tons, with the year - on - year increase expanding to 5.2% [21]. 2.2 Demand - The State Council has approved a hydropower project in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River with a total investment of 1.2 trillion yuan. The project has officially started, and the future demand for steel in infrastructure construction is promising. In addition, the truce period for Sino - US tariffs has been extended by 90 days, and the tariffs on China remain the same as before. There are signs of easing in Sino - US trade frictions, and there are expectations of future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. It is expected that the path for the realization of the off - season logic will be less smooth, and demand will maintain a certain level of resilience [32]. 2.3 Inventory - This week, the social inventory of steel in major cities across the country was 990,840 tons, an increase of 28,340 tons week - on - week. The inventory of steel mills by variety was 425,130 tons, an increase of 12,270 tons week - on - week. The total inventory of social and steel mills was 1.41597 million tons, an increase of 40,610 tons week - on - week. The overall inventory is at a low level for the same period, and steel mills are in a relative de - stocking stage, transferring inventory downstream. However, the overall de - stocking trend has ended, and inventory has begun to accumulate [38]. 2.4 Profit - This week, the profitability rate of 247 steel mills decreased by 2.6% to 65.8%, the blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.16% to 83.59%, the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate increased by 0.13 percentage points to 90.22% week - on - week, and the daily average pig iron output increased slightly by 34,000 tons to 2.4066 million tons, with the year - on - year increase expanding to 5.2% [46]. - The supply and circulation of scrap steel were tight this week, and price support remained. However, the improvement in downstream terminal demand during the off - season was limited, and the upward trend of steel prices gradually slowed down. The spreads between rebar and scrap steel and between hot - rolled coils and scrap steel first expanded and then narrowed, and the profitability of steel mills also began to decline slightly. As a result, the daily average crude steel output of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills across the country decreased by 0.86% week - on - week. However, as of August 15, the average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills across the country increased by 0.49% to 57.39%, and the average operating rate increased by 1.49% to 76.39% [48]. 2.5 Raw Material Prices - This week, the prices of major raw materials moved up. Among them, the price of Tangshan steel billets decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 3,089 yuan/ton, and the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Tangshan increased by 50 yuan/ton to 1,420 yuan/ton [56]. Summary and Investment Suggestions - This week, the inventory of the five major steel products increased by 40,610 tons to 1.41597 million tons, reaching a three - month high. The social and steel mill inventories both increased by nearly 3% week - on - week. Specifically, rebar was the only product with a week - on - week production decline. Its steel mill inventory decreased by 2.41%, social inventory decreased by 6.81%, and total inventory decreased by 5.5%. However, its apparent demand dropped by nearly 10% to 189,940 tons, a record low for the same period in recent years. The social inventory of hot - rolled coils decreased, and the apparent demand increased by 85,400 tons or 2.79% to 314,750 tons [59]. - Overall, this week's industrial data was poor, with obvious characteristics of the off - season demand. Seasonal factors such as high temperatures and heavy rainfall suppressed the consumption of building materials. The apparent demand for the five major steel products decreased significantly, and the inventory accumulation speed of steel products accelerated slightly. In the short term, the steel market shows a pattern of stable supply and weak demand. The supply - demand contradiction of steel is still not strong, and at the same time, raw material prices are firm, providing cost support. It is expected that steel prices will fluctuate at a relatively high level. In terms of operation, it is recommended to go long with a light position on dips. For the rebar 2510 contract, the first support range is 3100 - 3150 [59].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the inventory of the five major steel products increased by 153,900 tons to 1.35189 million tons, ending a four - week decline and reaching a seven - week high. The social inventory increased by 153,900 tons, and the steel mill inventory increased slightly by 1,000 tons. Specifically, the social inventory of rebar increased by 111,700 tons, while the steel mill inventory decreased by 35,200 tons. The weekly output decreased slightly, and the apparent demand decreased by 6.08% or 131,700 tons to 2.0341 million tons, the lowest in five months. The output increase of hot - rolled coils was greater than the inventory increase, and the apparent demand rebounded by 47,600 tons to 3.2 million tons. The apparent demand for cold - rolled and medium - thick plates fluctuated relatively little [2]. - Currently, the proportion of industrial logic is gradually increasing, and policy expectations are decreasing. After important events such as Sino - US tariff negotiations, the Politburo meeting, and the US interest - rate meeting have concluded, market sentiment has significantly cooled. In the short term, prices have entered a period of volatile consolidation, but the upward trend is expected to remain unchanged, although the momentum has slowed. In the later stage, attention should be paid to whether terminal demand can show better - than - expected performance [2]. - In the short term, the market will experience volatile consolidation, while in the long term, the upward trend remains unchanged [2]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Market Review and Price Performance 3.1.1 Futures and Spot Trend Review - Futures market: This week, the main RB2510 rebar contract retraced, closing at 3,205 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 89 yuan/ton, with a position of 1.816 million lots, a decrease of 90,000 lots. The main HC2510 hot - rolled coil contract slightly retraced, closing at 33,902 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 66 yuan/ton, with a position of 1.4339 million lots, a decrease of 73,800 lots [5]. - Spot market: This week, the spot price of rebar moved lower. As of July 31, the price of HRB400E 20MM in Beijing decreased by 60 yuan/ton to 3,270 yuan/ton compared with last week. The spot price of hot - rolled coils also moved lower. As of July 31, the price of Benxi Steel 5.75*1500*C:Q235B in Tianjin decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 3,370 yuan/ton compared with last week [6]. 3.1.2 Spread Changes - Futures - spot spread: This week, the basis of the main RB2510 rebar contract compared with the HRB400E 20MM spot in Shanghai was 165 yuan/ton, a change of +91 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. The basis of the main HC2510 hot - rolled coil contract compared with the 5.5*1500*C:Q235B:Ansteel spot in Shanghai was 40 yuan/ton, a change of +57 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [11]. - Inter - monthly spread: This week, the RB2601 - RB2510 spread was 56 yuan/ton, a change of +13 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. The HC2601 - HC2510 spread was 7 yuan/ton, a change of - 4 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [12]. - Rebar - hot - rolled coil spread: This week, the HC2510 - RB2510 spread was 185 yuan/ton, a change of +34 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. The HC2601 - RB2601 spread was 136 yuan/ton, a change of +17 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [13]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Situation Analysis 3.2.1 Supply - This week, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills surveyed by Mysteel was 83.46%, unchanged from last week and 2.18 percentage points higher than last year. The steel mill profitability rate was 65.37%, an increase of 1.73 percentage points from last week and 58.88 percentage points higher than last year. The daily average pig iron output was 2.4071 million tons, a decrease of 15,200 tons from last week but an increase of 40,900 tons compared with last year [20]. - The total weekly output of the five major steel products was 867,420 tons, a week - on - week increase of 450 tons. The increase was mainly in cold - and hot - rolled coils, while the output of other varieties decreased to varying degrees [20]. - The profitability rate of 247 steel mills continued to increase to 65.37%, reaching a high in more than nine months. The blast furnace operating rate remained unchanged at 83.46% for the third consecutive week. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate decreased to 90.24%, and the daily average pig iron output continued to decline by 15,200 tons to 2.4071 million tons, but the year - on - year increase still reached 1.73% [20]. 3.2.2 Demand - Recently, the State Council approved the construction of a hydropower project in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River with a total investment of 1.2 trillion yuan, indicating good prospects for future infrastructure steel demand. - On the 31st, the third round of Sino - US economic and trade negotiations ended, and both sides agreed to extend the tariff truce period originally due to expire on August 12 by 90 days. The tariffs on China remained the same as before. There are signs of easing in Sino - US trade frictions and expectations of future Fed rate cuts. It is expected that the path for the implementation of the off - season logic will be less smooth, and demand will maintain a certain level of resilience. Currently, the demand for hot - rolled coils is still stronger than that for rebar, and this pattern is expected to continue for some time due to the arrival of the seasonal off - season for building materials [30]. 3.2.3 Inventory - This week, the social inventory of steel products in major cities across the country was 942,370 tons, a week - on - week increase of 152,900 tons. The inventory of steel mills by variety was 409,520 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,000 tons. The total inventory of social and steel mills was 1.35189 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 153,900 tons. The overall inventory is at a low level compared with the same period, and steel mills have significantly reduced their inventory, transferring it downstream, continuing a certain de - stocking trend [36]. 3.2.4 Profit - The profitability rate of 247 steel mills continued to increase to 65.37%, reaching a high in more than nine months. The blast furnace operating rate remained unchanged at 83.46% for the third consecutive week. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate decreased to 90.24%, and the daily average pig iron output continued to decline by 15,200 tons to 2.4071 million tons, but the year - on - year increase still reached 1.73% [47]. - With the recovery of profits, electric - arc furnace steel mills continued to increase production and resume production, resulting in a significant increase in the operating rate and capacity utilization rate. However, due to poor steel sales, the overall recovery amplitude narrowed. As of July 30, the average operating rate of 87 independent electric - arc furnace steel mills in the country increased by 2.19% to 74.21%, and the capacity utilization rate increased by 1.56% to 57.05%, both reaching an eight - week high [47]. 3.2.5 Raw Material Prices - Affected by domestic policies this week, the prices of major raw materials fluctuated significantly. The price of Tangshan steel billets decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 3,097 yuan/ton, and the price of 61.5% PB powder decreased by 17 yuan/ton to 765 yuan/ton [56]. 3.3 Summary and Investment Suggestions - This week, the inventory of the five major steel products increased by 153,900 tons to 1.35189 million tons, ending a four - week decline and reaching a seven - week high. The social inventory increased by 153,900 tons, and the steel mill inventory increased slightly by 1,000 tons. Specifically, the social inventory of rebar increased by 111,700 tons, while the steel mill inventory decreased by 35,200 tons. The weekly output decreased slightly, and the apparent demand decreased by 6.08% or 131,700 tons to 2.0341 million tons, the lowest in five months. The output increase of hot - rolled coils was greater than the inventory increase, and the apparent demand rebounded by 47,600 tons to 3.2 million tons. The apparent demand for cold - rolled and medium - thick plates fluctuated relatively little [60]. - Currently, the proportion of industrial logic is gradually increasing, and policy expectations are decreasing. After important events such as Sino - US tariff negotiations, the Politburo meeting, and the US interest - rate meeting have concluded, market sentiment has significantly cooled. In the short term, prices have entered a period of volatile consolidation, but the upward trend is expected to remain unchanged, although the momentum has slowed. In the later stage, attention should be paid to whether terminal demand can show better - than - expected performance [60].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - The U.S. biodiesel policy is favorable for the vegetable oil market, which may support the prices of CBOT soybeans and U.S. soybean oil. Due to the continued additional tariffs on U.S. soybeans and the rising premium of Brazilian soybeans, the import of soybeans in China is expected to be tight in the fourth quarter, and soybean oil has upward potential [2][13][23]. - The current situation of palm oil is that Malaysia has a high inventory while Indonesia has a decreasing inventory. The implementation of Indonesia's B40 plan is expected to increase industrial consumption, but the export data of Malaysian palm oil shows weak demand. The pattern of high inventory and high production of palm oil is difficult to change, lacking upward momentum [3][16][24]. - Affected by the current situation of weak supply and demand, rapeseed oil is expected to continue its wide - range oscillation pattern [3][22][24]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review In July, the trends of oils and fats were divergent. Palm oil continued to rise, soybean oil first declined and then rose, and rapeseed oil maintained a wide - range oscillation. The U.S. biodiesel policy and Indonesia's B40 plan boosted the prices of palm oil and international oils, while the improvement of China - Australia trade relations put pressure on rapeseed oil prices [9]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Analysis - **U.S. Biodiesel Policy Benefits**: The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's proposed biofuel blending rules for 2026 - 2027 are favorable for the industrial demand of domestic oils. The demand for soybean oil in biofuels is increasing, and the future domestic crushing demand for U.S. soybeans is expected to grow. The export tax cuts in Argentina may stimulate soybean exports, and the high premium of Brazilian soybeans and the continued additional tariffs on U.S. soybeans support the price of soybean oil. Although the soybean oil inventory is currently high, the seasonal inventory inflection point is approaching in August, which also supports the price [10][13][15]. - **Palm Oil Supply - Demand Pattern is Loose**: In June, Malaysian palm oil continued to accumulate inventory, and the export data in July was not ideal. It is expected to maintain a pattern of high inventory and high production in the third quarter. In Indonesia, the implementation of the B40 plan is expected to increase industrial consumption, but overall, the upward momentum of palm oil is weak [16][17][24]. - **Rapeseed Oil Continues the Oscillation Pattern**: The new rapeseed production in Canada is expected to decrease, and the export demand is strong, making ICE rapeseed prices strong. The improvement of China - Australia trade relations may lead to an increase in the import of Australian rapeseed, which is negative for the domestic rapeseed market. The anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed has not ended, and the trend of reducing rapeseed imports and increasing rapeseed oil imports is expected to continue. Rapeseed oil is expected to continue its wide - range oscillation [20][22][24]. 3.3 Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - Due to the continued additional tariffs on U.S. soybeans and the rising premium of Brazilian soybeans, the import of soybeans in China is expected to be tight in the fourth quarter, and soybean oil has upward potential [2][13][23]. - The high - inventory and high - production pattern of palm oil is difficult to change, lacking upward momentum [3][16][24]. - Rapeseed oil is expected to continue its wide - range oscillation pattern [3][22][24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean import in China is expected to be tight in the fourth quarter, and the cost of imported soybeans is increasing, so there is an upward space for soybean oil [2][3][12] - The pattern of high inventory and high production of palm oil is difficult to change, and it lacks upward momentum [3][16][24] - Rapeseed oil is expected to continue the wide - range shock pattern due to the current situation of weak supply and demand [3][20][24] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Market Review - In July, the trends of oils and fats were differentiated. Palm oil continued to rise, soybean oil first declined and then rose, and rapeseed oil maintained a wide - range shock [9] - The U.S. biodiesel policy is beneficial to the consumption of vegetable oils, and the increase in U.S. soybean oil drives up the international oil prices. The implementation of Indonesia's B40 plan boosts the palm oil price, while the improvement of China - Australia trade relations puts pressure on the rapeseed oil price [9] 3.2. Supply and Demand Analysis 3.2.1. U.S. Biodiesel Policy Benefits - The U.S. biodiesel policy is beneficial to the industrial demand of domestic oils and fats. The demand for domestic soybean crushing in the U.S. is expected to increase, which supports the CBOT soybean and U.S. soybean oil prices [10][12] - Argentina's reduction of export withholding tax on soybeans and their by - products may stimulate exports. The high premium of Brazilian soybeans and the continued levy of tariffs on U.S. soybeans in China increase the cost of imported soybeans in China and support the soybean oil price [12] - As of July 25, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions in China decreased slightly compared with the previous week and the same period last year. With the arrival of August, the seasonal inventory inflection point is coming, which strongly supports the soybean oil price [15] 3.2.2. Loose Supply - Demand Pattern of Palm Oil - In June, Malaysian palm oil continued to accumulate inventory, and the export data in July were not ideal. It is expected that the pattern of high inventory and high production will continue in the third quarter, and the supply - demand pattern will become looser [16] - Indonesia's B40 plan is being implemented as scheduled, and the new industrial consumption demand of palm oil is expected to be strong, which supports the price. However, overall, the upward momentum of palm oil is weak [17][23][24] 3.2.3. Rapeseed Oil Continues the Shock Pattern - The new rapeseed production in Canada is expected to decrease, and the export demand is strong, so the ICE rapeseed has been running strongly recently [18][20] - The improvement of China - Australia trade relations may lead to an increase in the import of Australian rapeseed, which is negative for the domestic rapeseed market [20] - The anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed has not concluded, and the trend of reducing rapeseed import and increasing rapeseed oil import is expected to continue. The rapeseed oil inventory in coastal oil mills has increased slightly, but the de - stocking process is expected to continue, and rapeseed oil is expected to continue the wide - range shock pattern [22] 3.3. Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - Due to the tight supply expectation of imported soybeans in the fourth quarter and the increase in import costs, there is an upward space for soybean oil [2][3][23] - The pattern of high inventory and high production of palm oil is difficult to change, and it lacks upward momentum [3][16][24] - Rapeseed oil is expected to continue the wide - range shock pattern due to the current weak supply and demand situation [3][20][24]

核心观点： 本周五大材库存微降 1.16 万吨至 1336.5 万吨，为连续第 4 周小幅下降。其中，社会库存环比 增加，钢厂库存创春节以来最低。具体来看，螺纹钢社会库存增加 2.81 万吨，钢厂库存则减少 7.43 万吨，周产量增加 2.9 万吨，表观需求回升 5%或 10.41 万吨至 216.58 万吨；热卷产量下降，但库 存增加，表需减少 2.64%或 8.55 万吨至 315.24 万吨，此外，线材和冷轧表需降超 2%，中厚板表需 微增。 综合来看，目前产业逻辑占比较低，政策预期主导行情，"反内卷"和"雅江工程"驱动，叠 加"超产煤矿停产整改"对原料的成本支撑，钢价短期高位盘整，上涨趋势不变，但动能有所放缓， 后期重点关注政策情况。 钢材周度策略报告 上涨趋势不变，动能有所放缓 后市展望：短期震荡盘整，长期上涨趋势不变 | 钢材 | 观点 | 分析 | | --- | --- | --- | | 五大材产量 | 偏多 | 本周 Mysteel 统计分五大材产量周度产量合计为 866.97 万吨，环比-1.22 万吨。 | | | | "反内卷"政策信号效果逐渐显现。 | | 五大材库存 | 偏空 | ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating for the Industry No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The outlook for US soybean oil consumption is positive due to bio - diesel policies, leading to a relatively strong performance in US soybean oil. However, the price of CBOT soybeans is under pressure because of favorable growing conditions for US soybeans. In China, high oil - mill operating rates have increased soybean oil supply, causing continuous inventory accumulation and limiting the upside potential of soybean oil prices [2]. - GAPKI data shows that Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased by 4.27% month - on - month in May, driven by increased demand from India and China. But ASA data indicates that the export of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 15.2% month - on - month in the first half of July, suggesting a recent weakening in exports. In China, the rapid recovery of import profits for near - term shipments has led to active purchasing and an increase in domestic palm oil inventory. The supply - demand pattern of Malaysian palm oil is widening, which may limit the upside of palm oil prices [2]. - Due to the improvement in China - Australia trade relations, future imports of Australian rapeseed will increase domestic rapeseed supply, putting pressure on rapeseed oil prices. However, domestic rapeseed oil is expected to continue de - stocking. Current demand for rapeseed oil is low, maintaining a pattern of weak supply and demand and mainly following the trends of other oils [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry News - The growing conditions for US soybeans are good, putting pressure on the price of CBOT soybeans. Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased by 4.27% month - on - month in May due to strong export demand, but the export of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 15.2% month - on - month in the first 25 days of July [5]. - As of the week ending July 20, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 68%, lower than the market expectation of 71% and the previous week's 70%, but the same as the same period last year. Indonesia's palm oil inventory in May decreased to 2.9 million tons, a 4.27% month - on - month decrease. Its export volume of palm oil and refined products reached 2.66 million tons, a nearly 50% increase from April and a 35.64% year - on - year increase. The production of crude palm oil in May was 4.17 million tons, lower than April's 4.48 million tons but a 7.2% increase from last year. The export volume of Malaysian palm oil products from July 1 - 25, 2025, was 896,484 tons, a 15.2% decrease compared to the same period in June [6]. Soybean Oil - According to Steel Union research, last week, the actual soybean oil production of sample oil mills was 438,000 tons, with an operating rate of 64.81%. The operating rate is expected to decline this week. As of July 18, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions of China was 1.0918 million tons, a 4.04% week - on - week increase. Terminal consumption is weak, and the basis is weak. The supply pressure limits the upside of soybean oil prices [9]. Palm Oil - As of July 18, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions of China was 591,400 tons, a 5.04% month - on - month increase and a 23.49% year - on - year increase. Indonesia's biodiesel consumption has reached 7.42 million kiloliters this year, completing 47.5% of the 2025 quota. The new industrial consumption expectation has made palm oil prices run strongly. However, the supply - demand pattern of Malaysian palm oil is widening, which may limit the upside of palm oil prices [12]. Rapeseed Oil - As of July 18, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 59,000 tons, an increase of 22,000 tons from the previous period. The rapeseed oil inventory of major coastal oil mills was 92,500 tons, a decrease of 400 tons from last week. Due to tight raw material supply, oil mills are expected to maintain a low operating rate. The improvement in China - Australia trade relations will increase the supply of imported rapeseed, putting pressure on rapeseed oil prices [15]. Vegetable Oil Price Spread - The improvement in China - Australia trade relations and the expected increase in Australian rapeseed imports will lead to an increase in rapeseed supply. Rapeseed oil is relatively weak in the oil and fat sector [18]. 4. Next Week's Focus - USDA weekly crop growth report; Malaysian palm oil export report and production report [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The inventory of the five major steel products decreased slightly by 1.92 million tons to 13.3766 million tons this week, marking the third consecutive week of slight decline. Among them, the social inventory increased month - on - month, and the steel mill inventory reached the lowest level since the Spring Festival. Specifically, the social inventory of rebar increased by 2.97%, the steel mill inventory decreased by 4.3%, the weekly output decreased by 3.51%, and it was the only variety with a month - on - month decline in apparent demand among the five major steel products, with a decline of 6.92%. The output of wire rods increased, the total inventory decreased, and the apparent demand increased by 6.3% month - on - month. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coils increased slightly, and the apparent demand for cold - rolled and medium - thick plates increased by 2.96% and 2.1% respectively. - Currently, the industrial logic accounts for a relatively low proportion, and the "anti - involution" expectation is still fermenting. Although the molten iron output has rebounded, the supply of rebar has significantly declined, and the output of plate products has also decreased simultaneously. The supply continues to shrink, and coupled with the inventory accumulation being lower than expected, it is expected that steel prices will maintain a relatively strong short - term operation trend. The previous low point may become history, but the upward height still needs to be observed, and policy conditions should be closely monitored. The outlook for the future is oscillating and slightly strengthening. [2][59] 3. Summary According to the Directory Market Review and Price Performance 1.1 Futures and Spot Trends Review - Futures market: This week, the main contract of rebar RB2510 rose significantly, closing at 3,133 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 10 yuan/ton, with a position of 2.1269 million lots, a decrease of 103,100 lots. The main contract of hot - rolled coils HC2510 also rose significantly, closing at 3,292 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 30 yuan/ton, with a position of 1.61031 million lots, an increase of 132,000 lots. - Spot market: This week, the spot price center of rebar moved up. As of July 17, the price of HRB400E 20MM in Beijing increased by 20 yuan/ton to 3,170 yuan/ton compared with last week. The spot price center of hot - rolled coils moved down. As of July 17, the price of Benxi Steel 5.75*1500*C:Q235B in Tianjin increased by 20 yuan/ton to 3,200 yuan/ton compared with last week. [5][6] 1.2 Spread Changes - Futures - spot spread: This week, the basis of the main rebar contract RB2510 compared with the HRB400E 20MM spot in Shanghai was 84 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The basis of the main hot - rolled coil contract HC2510 compared with the 5.5*1500*C:Q235B:Ansteel spot in Shanghai was 28 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1 yuan/ton. - Inter - monthly spread: This week, the spread between RB2601 and RB2510 was 46 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 18 yuan/ton. The spread between HC2601 and HC2510 was 16 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 9 yuan/ton. - Rebar - hot - rolled coil spread: This week, the spread between HC2510 and RB2510 was 159 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 19 yuan/ton. The spread between HC2601 and RB2601 was 129 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 10 yuan/ton. [10][11][12] Supply and Demand Analysis 2.1 Supply - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills surveyed by Mysteel this week was 83.46%, a week - on - week increase of 0.31 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.83 percentage points. The profitability rate of steel mills was 60.17%, a week - on - week increase of 0.43 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 28.14 percentage points. The daily average molten iron output was 2.4244 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 26,300 tons and a year - on - year increase of 27,900 tons. - The total weekly output of the five major steel products counted by Mysteel this week was 8.6819 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 45,300 tons. The effect of the "anti - involution" policy signal is gradually emerging, and the reduction of rebar and hot - rolled coils is obvious. [19] 2.2 Demand - Recently, the US government has targeted 14 countries and imposed a "tariff bomb." US President Trump posted multiple letters on social media, stating that starting from August 1, import products from 14 countries will be subject to tariffs ranging from 25% to 40%. The tariffs on China remain the same as before. Against the background of the current rush to export, the demand for hot - rolled coils is still stronger than that for rebar. Coupled with the arrival of the seasonal off - season demand for building materials, this pattern is expected to continue for some time. There are signs of easing in the Sino - US trade friction and expectations of future Fed rate cuts. The path for the realization of the off - season logic in the future is expected to be less smooth, and the demand will maintain a certain level of resilience. [2][30] 2.3 Inventory - The social inventory of steel products in major cities across the country counted by Mysteel this week was 9.2211 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 81,000 tons. The inventory of steel mills by variety was 4.1555 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 100,200 tons. The total inventory of social and steel mills was 13.3766 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 19,200 tons. The overall inventory is at a low level compared with the same period, and the steel mills have significantly reduced their inventory, transferring it downstream and continuing a certain de - stocking trend. [2][34] 2.4 Profit - This week, the price of rebar rose. The average cost of electric arc furnace construction steel mills was 3,287 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 25 yuan/ton. The increase in rebar prices in many regions was greater than that of scrap steel. The average profit of steel mills was - 92 yuan/ton, and the average profit during off - peak electricity hours was 11 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 15 yuan/ton. Some electric arc furnace steel mills have turned from losses to profits and have actively chosen to resume production or increase production time to improve production saturation. [2][47] 2.5 Raw Material Prices - This week, the prices of major raw materials generally stabilized and rebounded. Among them, the price of Tangshan billets increased by 4 yuan/ton to 2,993 yuan/ton, and the price of 61.5% PB powder increased by 20 yuan/ton to 768 yuan/ton. [56] Summary and Investment Suggestions - The inventory of the five major steel products decreased slightly by 1.92 million tons to 13.3766 million tons this week, marking the third consecutive week of slight decline. Among them, the social inventory increased month - on - month, and the steel mill inventory reached the lowest level since the Spring Festival. Specifically, the social inventory of rebar increased by 2.97%, the steel mill inventory decreased by 4.3%, the weekly output decreased by 3.51%, and it was the only variety with a month - on - month decline in apparent demand among the five major steel products, with a decline of 6.92%. The output of wire rods increased, the total inventory decreased, and the apparent demand increased by 6.3% month - on - month. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coils increased slightly, and the apparent demand for cold - rolled and medium - thick plates increased by 2.96% and 2.1% respectively. - Currently, the industrial logic accounts for a relatively low proportion, and the "anti - involution" expectation is still fermenting. Although the molten iron output has rebounded, the supply of rebar has significantly declined, and the output of plate products has also decreased simultaneously. The supply continues to shrink, and coupled with the inventory accumulation being lower than expected, it is expected that steel prices will maintain a relatively strong short - term operation trend. The previous low point may become history, but the upward height still needs to be observed, and policy conditions should be closely monitored. [2][59]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report 2. Core Views - **Pigs**: Future two months are a seasonally tight supply period for pigs due to winter piglet diseases, and the July pig slaughter plan is reduced, which supports the pig market. However, the overall supply this year is relatively strong, with the national sow inventory in May at 40.42 million heads, only 0.38 million heads less than the peak in November last year, and still above the basic capacity of 39 million heads, limiting the upward movement of pig prices [2] - **Eggs**: Eggs are in a traditional seasonal off - season with weakening consumption demand. The high - temperature and high - humidity weather is unfavorable for egg storage, reducing channel purchasing willingness. Newly - laying hens are at a high - production stage. Although farmers have a high willingness to cull due to large losses, the supply - side capacity reduction has just begun, and the reversal point has not arrived. Egg prices have a rebound demand at low levels but are still in a bearish trend, showing a weak and volatile pattern [7] - **Soybean Meal**: As of the week ending July 13, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 70%, higher than market expectations and the previous week, and also at a relatively high level over the years. Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production is expected to be 169.5 million tons. The confirmed high - yield expectations in South America suppress the futures price to fluctuate weakly [9] - **Corn**: The spot price in the main production areas has weakened, and under the continuous decline of the futures price, traders' willingness to hold prices has weakened, and their willingness to sell at low prices has increased. Deep - processing enterprises are pressing prices for purchases. The corn inventory in the four northern ports, a barometer of inventory, has continued to decline from a historical high, and the inventory of feed and deep - processing enterprises has also decreased. Affected by the import corn auction, the spot price has loosened, and the adjustment of the futures price on the disk continues [11] 3. Summaries by Directory 3.1 Farming Capacity - **Pigs**: The sow inventory is in a green area, indicating a loose capacity [17] - **Eggs**: The laying - hen inventory is at a historical high, with loose capacity [17] 3.2 Farming - end Demand - **Pigs**: The pig slaughtering start - up rate is running weakly [21] - **Eggs**: The downstream consumption is average [21] 3.3 Replenishment Prices - **Pigs**: The average price of piglets has been fluctuating weakly recently [24] - **Eggs**: The price of chicken chicks is high [24] 3.4 Basis - **Pigs**: Due to loose capacity and weak expectations, the futures price is weaker than the spot price, and the basis is oscillating at a high level [27] - **Eggs**: The basis shows a weak and volatile trend [27] - **Soybean Meal**: As the arrival of goods increases, the basis is falling [30] - **Corn**: The basis is running weakly [30] 3.5 Production Profits - **Pigs**: Pig - farming profits are weakly oscillating [33] - **Eggs**: Laying - hen farming profits are weakly oscillating [33] - **Soybeans**: The soybean crushing profit is currently running weakly [43] - **Corn**: The starch - corn price difference is weakly oscillating [43] 3.6 Inventory - **Soybeans**: With the increasing arrival of goods, soybean inventory is at a high level, and soybean meal inventory is accumulating due to the recovery of the startup rate [36] - **Corn**: The deep - processing inventory has slightly declined due to less arrivals and strong price - holding willingness of traders; the overall inventory of feed enterprises has also slightly decreased this week [40] 3.7 Industry Terms - **Old Rice**: Usually stored in reserve warehouses for a long time, it can be used for processing fuel ethanol or feed, with a relatively low price. It is a good substitute for corn in feed use, and the auction rhythm of old rice has a certain regulatory effect on the corn market price [44] - **Secondary Fattening**: Farmers buy healthy pigs that have reached the normal slaughter weight (usually 200 - 250 pounds), fatten them for a period to increase their weight to 350 pounds or more, and then sell them to earn the price difference. This model has become popular after African swine fever [44]