Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1][2][3] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of finished steel products are weak, and steel prices are undergoing adjustments. There is still potential for further adjustment, and it is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see approach [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Content General Situation of Steel Billets - In July, the total resource volume of national sample steel billet circulation enterprises was about 3.32 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of about 4% and a year - on - year increase of about 29%. At the beginning of August, some steel enterprises resumed production after blast furnace maintenance, and the steel billet profit was relatively good, driving up the steel billet delivery volume, which is expected to remain at about 44,000 tons per day, at a relatively high level. On August 4, the ex - factory tax - included price of common square billets in Qian'an, Tangshan increased by 20 yuan, reaching 3,050 yuan per ton [3] Situation of Finished Steel Products - Finished steel products rebounded slightly from the low level yesterday. After the macro - sentiment subsided, steel prices continuously declined, and the market refocused on the fundamental factors of steel. Currently, the supply of steel is still stronger than the demand. The daily average hot metal output, blast furnace operating rate, and steel mill profitability on the supply side are all relatively high, but the downstream demand is mediocre, affected by monthly real - estate data and the actual impact of the rainy season on construction sites [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The finished products are expected to run in a range-bound and consolidating manner, and attention should be paid to macro policies and downstream demand [4] - The aluminum price is expected to adjust in a short - term range, and attention should be paid to macro sentiment and downstream start - up [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - Yunnan - Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises' Spring Festival shutdown is from mid - January, with a resumption around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting 741,000 tons of production [3] - 6 short - process steel mills in Anhui: 1 stopped production on January 5th, most will stop around mid - January, with a daily production impact of about 16,200 tons [4] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of new commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% MoM decrease and a 43.2% YoY increase [4] - Finished products continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. In the weak supply - demand pattern, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and winter storage is sluggish [4] Aluminum - On the supply side, the port shipment in Guinea was suspended, driving up the alumina futures price slightly. In August, the operating capacity of alumina is expected to increase, and the demand for bauxite will grow [4] - From late June to July, the bauxite shipment volume from Guinea decreased. From August, the total import volume of bauxite from Guinea to China is expected to decline, and the domestic supply increment is limited [4] - From August, the inventory accumulation rate of Chinese bauxite is expected to slow down, and the inventory is expected to peak from August to September [4] - In July, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased by 1.05% YoY and 3.11% MoM. The operating capacity increased slightly due to the start - up of the second - phase replacement project in Shandong - Yunnan [4] - On August 4, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 564,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from last Thursday and 31,000 tons from last Monday [4] - Currently, the inventory is accumulating in the off - season, and the demand pressure limits the upside space. Short - term aluminum prices are expected to be range - bound [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Market speculation sentiment has cooled, and with exchange rule restrictions, coal prices are gradually returning to rationality. Fundamentals have improved, but short - term price fluctuations have intensified. It is recommended to wait and see [3] Summary by Related Catalog Market Conditions - Yesterday, coal - coke futures prices fluctuated sharply and closed higher in the late session. The spot market price was lagging behind the futures and remained relatively strong, with the 5th round of coke price increase implemented yesterday [2] Supply - side - Last week, coal production in Shanxi mines decreased, with some mines reducing output due to underground problems and completion of monthly tasks. Regarding the tracking of over - production issues, regions in Shanxi (except Lvliang) received documents and started verifying production. The impact on short - term coking coal output may be limited, but the long - term impact on coal mine production should be noted. The Australian coal import window closed again, and Mongolian coal customs clearance declined after a brief surge [2] Demand - side - Last week, the raw material replenishment actions of coking plants and steel mills slowed down slightly. The available days of coking coal inventory in factories stabilized after rising from a low level. Last week, the profitability rate of steel mills was 65.37%, a 1.73 - percentage - point increase from the previous week and a 58.88 - percentage - point increase year - on - year. The daily average pig iron output was 2.4071 million tons, a decrease of 15,200 tons from the previous week but an increase of 40,900 tons year - on - year [2]

1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Overall**: The black - series market has entered a high - level consolidation period due to the disappointment of policy increment expectations from important domestic meetings. The market trading focus has returned to the industrial fundamentals [12]. - **Steel Products**: The short - term market fluctuations are large, and it is recommended to wait and see. Attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [9]. - **Iron Ore**: In the short term, it will operate within a range. After the disappointment of policy expectations, the market will enter a policy vacuum period, and the price will fluctuate at a high level. The i2601 contract price is expected to be in the range of 745 yuan/ton - 780 yuan/ton, and the outer - market FE09 contract price is in the range of 98.5 - 103 US dollars/ton [12]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The market speculation sentiment has cooled down, and the short - term price fluctuations have intensified. It is recommended to wait and see. Attention should be paid to coal production data, the sustainability of high daily iron - water production of steel mills, and changes in imported coal clearance [13]. - **Ferroalloys**: After important meetings, the market sentiment has cooled down. The alloy price is expected to follow the black - metal market trend, and the short - term fluctuation range may increase. Attention should be paid to steel procurement and supply - side policy implementation [14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Market Review - **Futures Prices**: The prices of most varieties in the black - series futures market declined last week. For example, the price of rebar RB2510 dropped from 3356 yuan/ton on July 25th to 3203 yuan/ton on August 1st, a decrease of 4.56%. The price of coking coal JM2601 dropped from 1318.5 yuan/ton to 1092.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17.14% [7]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of most varieties also showed a downward trend. For example, the price of HRB400E Φ20 rebar in Shanghai dropped from 3430 yuan/ton to 3360 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.04%. The price of Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade coke dropped from 1430 yuan/ton to 1380 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.50% [7]. 3.2 This Week's Black - Series Market Forecast - **Steel Products** - **Logic**: The macro - sentiment has a greater impact on the market. The blast - furnace utilization rate and daily iron - water output of 247 steel mills decreased slightly, while the average capacity utilization rate and operating rate of 90 independent electric - arc furnace steel mills increased. The fundamentals of steel products are neutral to bearish, and the market is mainly influenced by macro and market sentiment [9]. - **View**: Wait and see due to large short - term fluctuations [9]. - **Attention Points**: Macro - policies and downstream demand [9]. - **Iron Ore** - **Logic**: The policy expectations have failed to materialize. On the supply side, the support from external mines is gradually weakening, and the supply may increase in the medium term. On the demand side, the daily iron - water output has declined, but the demand still has some resilience. The inventory is expected to be stable or increase slightly in the short term [12]. - **View**: It will operate within a range in the short term, and the price will fluctuate at a high level [12]. - **Attention Points**: Military parade production - restriction policies, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, and the supply recovery speed [11]. - **Coking Coal and Coke** - **Logic**: The market speculation sentiment has cooled down. The coal - coke futures prices have oscillated and declined. The production of some Shanxi coal mines has decreased, and the demand for coking coal still has some resilience. The inventory is affected by factors such as production and demand [13]. - **View**: Wait and see due to intensified short - term price fluctuations [13]. - **Attention Points**: Coal production data, the sustainability of high daily iron - water production of steel mills, and changes in imported coal clearance [13]. - **Ferroalloys** - **Logic**: The market sentiment has cooled down. On the supply side, the production of silicon - manganese and silicon - iron has increased. On the demand side, the demand for silicon - manganese has increased slightly, while the demand for silicon - iron has decreased. The inventory situation of the two is different. The cost side has certain support [14]. - **View**: The price will follow the black - metal market trend, and the short - term fluctuation range may increase [14]. - **Attention Points**: Tariff policy changes, domestic macro - policies, terminal demand, steel mill profits and production, and domestic production - restriction policies [14]. 3.3 Product Data - **Steel Products** - **Rebar**: Last week, the output was 211.06 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 0.9 tons), the apparent demand was 203.41 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 13.17 tons), and the total inventory increased by 7.65 tons [16]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Last week, the output was 322.79 tons (a week - on - week increase of 5.3 tons), the apparent demand was 320 tons (a week - on - week increase of 4.76 tons), and the total inventory increased by 2.79 tons [33]. - **Iron Ore** - **Port Inventory**: The total inventory of imported ore at 45 ports was 13657.90 tons last week, a week - on - week decrease of 132.48 tons [47]. - **Steel Mill Inventory and Consumption**: The inventory of 247 steel mills was 9012.09 tons, a week - on - week increase of 126.87 tons, and the daily consumption was 299.46 tons/ day, a week - on - week decrease of 1.64 tons [55]. - **Global Shipment**: The global total shipment was 3200.9 tons last week, a week - on - week increase of 91.8 tons [69]. - **Coking Coal and Coke** - **Inventory**: The total inventory of coke was 915.4 tons last week, a week - on - week decrease of 2.83 tons; the total inventory of coking coal was 2493.29 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 37.96 tons [98][106]. - **Profit and Utilization Rate**: The average profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises was - 45 yuan last week, a week - on - week increase of 9 yuan, and the capacity utilization rate was 73.7%, a week - on - week increase of 0.2% [115]. - **Ferroalloys** - **Spot Price**: The price of semi - carbonate manganese ore in Tianjin Port was 35 yuan/dry ton - degree last week, a week - on - week increase of 0.5 yuan; the price of silicon - manganese was 5720 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan; the price of silicon - iron was 5500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week [131]. - **Production and Demand**: The output of silicon - manganese was 190820 tons last week, a week - on - week increase of 4340 tons; the demand for silicon - manganese was 123715 tons, a week - on - week increase of 45 tons [137][144]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of silicon - manganese was 164000 tons on August 1st, a week - on - week decrease of 41000 tons; the inventory of silicon - iron was 65590 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3460 tons [148].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For aluminum, due to high macro uncertainty, prices are expected to adjust within a range in the short - term, and future developments in news and downstream off - season conditions should be monitored [9][10] - For zinc, short - term policy sentiment has basically been released, and medium - to long - term supply increases will put pressure on prices, leading to high - level adjustments [12][13] - For tin, the downward pressure is increasing [15] Summary by Catalog 01. Colored Weekly Market Review - The closing prices of futures main contracts and spot prices of various non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, zinc, tin, nickel) declined last week. For example, the copper futures main contract CU2509 fell by 850 yuan, a week - on - week decline of 1.07%, and the spot price of copper in Shanghai Wumei dropped by 1210 yuan, a week - on - week decline of 1.52% [7] 02. This Week's Colored Market Forecast Aluminum - **Logic**: Last week, aluminum prices rose and then fell. Macroscopically, Fed Chairman Powell was hawkish on monetary policy on Wednesday, and the market increased bets on interest rate cuts after the employment data was released on Friday. Fundamentally, in July 2025, the average fully - costed value of China's electrolytic aluminum industry was 16,261 yuan/ton, down 1.7% month - on - month and 5.8% year - on - year. In August, alumina's support for costs emerged. The supply of bauxite is expected to decline while demand increases, and the inventory accumulation rate of bauxite in China is expected to slow down in August, with a turning point in inventory in August - September. In July, China's electrolytic aluminum production increased year - on - year and month - on - month, and the operating capacity increased slightly. As of August 4, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in major domestic consumption areas increased [9] - **Viewpoint**: High macro uncertainty, short - term price range adjustment, and attention to news and downstream off - season conditions [10] Zinc - **Logic**: Last week, zinc prices weakened. The Shanghai - London ratio rebounded slightly and fluctuated below 8.1, and the zinc ingot import window remained closed. In the spot market, the processing fees of zinc concentrates in many domestic regions were finalized at the beginning of the month, and the raw material inventory of smelters remained high. The import of zinc ore was at a loss, and smelters mainly purchased domestic zinc ore. The operating rate of die - cast zinc alloy decreased. The raw material inventory increased slightly, and the finished product inventory decreased. As of August 4, the domestic zinc ingot inventory increased [12] - **Viewpoint**: Short - term policy sentiment released, medium - to long - term supply increase putting pressure on prices, high - level adjustment of zinc prices [13] Tin - **Logic**: Myanmar's Wa State is actively resuming production, and the market expects an increase in tin ore output. The production and operating rates of refined tin in Yunnan and Guangxi have recovered to some extent, but the raw material supply and inventory are still low, and processing fees remain at a low level. Downstream performance has weakened compared to the first half of the year, showing a situation of weak supply and demand [15] - **Viewpoint**: Increasing downward pressure [15] 03. Variety Data Aluminum - **Bauxite**: The price of domestic high - grade bauxite in Henan remained unchanged week - on - week; the price of domestic low - grade bauxite in Henan remained unchanged week - on - week; the average price index of imported bauxite increased week - on - week. The arrival and departure volumes of bauxite at ports increased week - on - week [19][22] - **Alumina**: The domestic price in Henan remained unchanged week - on - week, the full cost increased week - on - week, and the profit in Shanxi decreased week - on - week [25] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The total cost decreased week - on - week, and the regional price difference increased week - on - week. The operating rates of downstream processing sectors had different changes, and the inventory in bonded areas decreased, while the social inventory increased. The inventory in exchanges increased, and the basis and monthly spreads also changed [27][32][37] Zinc - **Zinc Concentrate**: The price of domestic zinc concentrate decreased week - on - week, the domestic processing fee remained unchanged week - on - week, and the import processing fee increased week - on - week. The enterprise production profit decreased week - on - week, the import loss decreased week - on - week, and the inventory of imported zinc concentrate in Lianyungang increased week - on - week [54][55] - **Refined Zinc**: The social inventory of zinc ingots increased week - on - week, the bonded area inventory increased week - on - week, the inventory of refined zinc in SHFE increased week - on - week, and the LME inventory decreased week - on - week [59] - **Galvanized**: The production decreased week - on - week, the operating rate decreased week - on - week, the raw material inventory decreased week - on - week, and the finished product inventory increased week - on - week [62] - **Zinc Basis and Monthly Spreads**: The basis and monthly spreads of zinc showed different changes week - on - week [65][66] Tin - **Refined Tin**: The combined output of Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces increased week - on - week, and the combined operating rate increased week - on - week [72] - **Tin Ingot Inventory**: The SHFE tin ingot inventory and China's regional social inventory increased week - on - week [75] - **Tin Concentrate Processing Fees**: The processing fees in Yunnan, Guangxi, Hunan, and Jiangxi remained unchanged week - on - week [77] - **Tin Ore Import Profit and Loss**: The import profit and loss level increased week - on - week [78] - **Spot Average Prices**: The average prices of 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan and 60% tin concentrate in Guangxi, Hunan, and Jiangxi decreased week - on - week [82]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The finished products are expected to run in a volatile and consolidating manner, and the aluminum price is expected to adjust within a short - term range [4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - Yungui region's short - process construction steel enterprises are expected to affect a total of 741,000 tons of construction steel output during the Spring Festival shutdown from mid - January. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills started to shut down on January 5, and most of the rest will shut down around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [3][4] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [4] - The finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, reaching a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the price center of gravity continues to move down. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing little support for prices. The view is that it will run in a volatile and consolidating manner [4] Aluminum Ingots - In July 2025, the average fully - taxed cost of China's electrolytic aluminum industry was 16,261 yuan/ton, a 1.7% decrease from the previous period and a 5.8% decrease year - on - year. In August, alumina's support for costs will be evident [4] - In August, the operating capacity of alumina is expected to increase month - on - month, and the demand for bauxite will grow. The supply of bauxite from Guinea is expected to decline starting in August, and the inventory accumulation rate of bauxite in China is expected to slow down, with the inventory likely to reach an inflection point from August to September [4] - In July, China's electrolytic aluminum output increased by 1.05% year - on - year and 3.11% month - on - month. On August 4, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in major consumption areas was 564,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from last Thursday and 31,000 tons from last Monday [4] - Currently in the off - season, inventory is accumulating, and the off - season pressure on the demand side limits the upside space. The short - term aluminum price is expected to move within a range, and subsequent attention should be paid to the inventory - consumption trend [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The steel price is expected to continue adjusting, and it is recommended to wait and see. [4] Group 3: Summary According to Related Content Policy Information - On August 1st, the list of "two major" construction projects worth 800 billion yuan for this year has been fully issued, and the central budget - internal investment of 735 billion yuan has been basically issued. [3] Production Capacity Utilization - Last week, the blast - furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.24%, a decrease of 0.57 percentage points from the previous week and an increase of 1.37 percentage points year - on - year. The daily average pig iron output was 2.4071 million tons, a decrease of 15,200 tons from the previous week and an increase of 40,900 tons year - on - year. [3] - The average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills nationwide was 57.05%, an increase of 1.56 percentage points from the previous week and an increase of 15.11 percentage points year - on - year. The average operating rate was 74.21%, an increase of 2.18 percentage points from the previous week and an increase of 12.75 percentage points year - on - year. [3] Market Performance and Influencing Factors - The price of finished steel rose first and then fell last week with large fluctuations. In terms of weekly fundamentals, the supply and demand of rebar both decreased and inventory increased, while the supply, demand, and inventory of hot - rolled steel all increased. The fundamentals are slightly bearish, but market sentiment has a greater impact on the market. [3] - The Politburo meeting last week was relatively calm, with no unexpected statements on anti - involution and real estate, which put pressure on the previously excited market. Recent market trends are greatly affected by macro factors and sentiment, with large price fluctuations. [3] Later Concerns - Macro policies, supply - side production reduction, and downstream demand conditions should be focused on. [4]

Group 1: Plate Capital Flow - The plate capital flow is presented in a percentage chart [1] Group 2: Plate Turnover Change - The plate turnover change is shown in a percentage chart [2] Group 3: Futures Main Contract Price Change - The price change of futures main contracts is presented in a percentage chart [3][4] Group 4: Variety Daily Trading Volume Change - The daily trading volume change of varieties is shown in a percentage chart [5][6] Group 5: Variety Turnover - The turnover of varieties is presented in a chart with values in billions of yuan [7][8] Group 6: Daily Capital Change - The daily capital change is presented in a percentage chart and a chart with values in billions of yuan [10][11] Group 7: Position Value - The position value is mentioned but no details are provided [12] Group 8: Variety Daily Speculation Degree - The daily speculation degree of varieties is presented in a chart [13][14] Group 9: Historical Volatility - The historical volatility is mentioned but no details are provided [16]

1. Market Data Overview - The report presents various data related to the financial market, including sector fund flows, trading volume changes, futures contract price movements, and more [1][2][3] 2. Sector - Related Data - Sector fund flows are presented in percentage terms, showing the direction of capital movement in different sectors [1] - Sector trading volume changes are also presented in percentage, indicating the fluctuations in trading activity [2] 3. Futures - Related Data - Futures main contract price changes are shown, covering different types of futures such as 5 - year and 10 - year treasury bond futures [3][4] - Daily trading volume changes of various futures and commodity varieties are presented in percentage [5][6] - The trading volume of different varieties is also provided, with some values in billions of yuan [7][8] 4. Commodity - Related Data - The daily trading volume changes of commodities like beans, cotton, sugar, etc. are shown in percentage [6] - The trading volume of commodities is presented, with some data in billions of yuan [8] - The daily capital changes of some commodities are presented in percentage [9][10] - The holding amount of certain commodities is also part of the report [12] - The daily speculation degree of different varieties is presented, with some data presented in a graphical form [13][14] - The historical volatility of some commodities is also mentioned [16]

晨报 铁矿石 铁矿石：黑色系持续调整 矿价短期区间运行 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 价格：价格区间震荡运行。i2509 合约价格区间 785 元/吨~810 元/吨。外盘 FE09 合约价 格区间 101~104 美金/吨。 2025 年 8 月 1 日 后期关注/风险因素："反内卷"政策细则、发运回升速度、终端需求韧性 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 逻辑：昨天黑色系整体下挫，成材以及碳元素下跌明显，铁矿石价格相对平稳，主要原因 一方面是会议政策增量预期落空，"反内卷"表述弱化；二是美联储鹰派表述，美元出现大幅 升值，利空大宗商品，美联储政策利率第五次按兵不 ...