晨报 铝锭 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:昨日沪铝高位运行。宏观上因美联储内部分歧引发了对今年再次 降息前景的怀疑，而风险厌恶情绪则使投资者寻求美元避险，带动美元指 数走强。尽管美联储上周下调利率，但美联储主席鲍威尔暗示，这可能是 今年最后一次降低借贷成本。 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 右。2024 年 12 月 30 日-2025 年 1 月 5 日，10 个重点城市新建商品房成 交（签约）面积总计 223.4 万平方米，环比下降 40.3%，同比增长 43.2%。 成材昨日继续震荡下行，价格再创近期新低。在供需双弱的格局下， 市场情绪同样偏悲观，导致价格重心持续下移。无论从宏观上还是产业上， 市场近期均无太多亮点。且今年冬储偏低迷，对价格支撑不强。 观点：震 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - With the weakening of macro - drivers, the trading of the black series will return to the real - world situation. The price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate within a range this week as the overall supply - demand of iron ore tends to accumulate inventory, but the inventory accumulation pressure is within an expectable range, and the current domestic basis is still relatively high with a large price difference between domestic and foreign markets [3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Situation - Last week, the black series rebounded collectively, with raw material prices rising more significantly due to positive macro - drivers such as the Fed's interest rate cut, better - than - expected Sino - US trade negotiation results, and the release of the 15th Five - Year Plan. However, in the short term, it will enter a policy vacuum period. The Fed's interest rate cut has fully realized its positive impact, and hawkish statements have curbed market optimism. The 15th Five - Year Plan focuses more on new - quality productivity, with limited and long - term boost to steel demand. Although the adjustment of Sino - US tariff policies may maintain export resilience, the reality of weak supply and demand in domestic manufacturing data is difficult to improve [3] Supply - Overseas iron ore supply is increasing steadily, but the supporting strength is continuously weakening. In October, the weekly average shipment from Australia and Brazil was 27.32 million tons, a 2% month - on - month increase. From January to October, the weekly average shipment was 25.46 million tons, a 0.8% year - on - year increase. It is expected that the import volume in October will remain at a high level. In November, due to seasonal maintenance of Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipment ports, the supply is expected to decline by 10 million tons month - on - month but still have an increase of over 3 million tons year - on - year. Due to the high shipment in October, the arrival volume in November is expected to remain at an absolute high level, basically flat month - on - month and an increase of over 10 million tons year - on - year [3] Demand - Domestic demand has been declining month - on - month mainly because of the temporary tightening of environmental protection in Hebei, which led some steel mills to shut down or reduce their loads. This week, although the blast furnace operating rate increased, the molten iron output decreased. In addition, due to the continuous decline in finished product prices, the loss range of steel mills has further expanded, and the profitability rate has dropped to the lowest level of the year. Overall, the blast furnace operating rate and profitability rate are continuously declining due to environmental protection and weak terminal demand, but the decline slope is not steep. Coupled with steel mills entering the seasonal restocking cycle, domestic iron ore demand is expected to remain resilient [3] Inventory - The inventory level at the steel mill end has rebounded slightly month - on - month as steel mills enter the seasonal restocking cycle. Due to the high arrival volume at the same period and the decline in port clearance volume due to weather reasons, the port inventory has been continuously accumulating month - on - month [3] Price and Strategy - The price will fluctuate within a range. The main contract of Dalian iron ore futures will be in the range of 760 - 810 yuan/ton, corresponding to an overseas price of about 100 - 107 US dollars/ton. The strategy is to conduct range operations and use covered call options [5]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The macro - atmosphere supports market sentiment. In the short term, the supply - demand of coal and coke fluctuates marginally and remains at a relatively high level overall. The inventory pressure is temporarily not significant. The prices should be treated with cautious optimism, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the previous high level [3]. 3) Summary According to Relevant Content - **Market Conditions** - The upward trend of coal and coke futures prices slowed down due to the weak prices of steel and ore, and the prices fluctuated near the upper edge of the 1100 - 1300 oscillation range. The spot market was generally stable with a slight upward trend. The second round of coke price increase was implemented, and many coke enterprises started the third round of price increase, which may be implemented this week [3]. - The Fed cut interest rates as expected last week, and the China - US trade negotiation progressed smoothly with reduced frictions. The 15th Five - Year Plan in China was released beyond market expectations, enhancing market risk appetite and supporting the recovery of market sentiment [3]. - **Fundamentals - Supply** - On the domestic side, some coal mines in Shanxi resumed production last week, but the number of shut - down coal mines in Lvliang increased, and the production of a large mine in Xingxian stopped, dragging down the overall production data. The daily average output of coking coal last week was 75.8 million tons, a slight decrease of 0.3 million tons compared with the previous week [3]. - On the import side, the daily average customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port last week rebounded to 16.43 million tons, an increase of 5.6 million tons compared with the previous week, returning to a relatively high level [3]. - **Fundamentals - Demand** - The profit of steel mills continued to shrink, and the profitability rate dropped to about 45%. However, the current profitability rate would not lead to large - scale production cuts of steel mills for the time being. The daily average pig iron output last week dropped to 236.36 million tons, a decrease of 3.55 million tons compared with the previous week, mainly due to environmental protection pressure in some areas of Hebei [3]. - As the peak demand season was approaching the end, the pressure on finished products increased, and the pig iron output tended to decline. Attention should be paid to the transmission of pressure to the raw material end [3].

晨报 铝锭 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：逐步过渡淡季 关注宏观指引 投资咨询业务资格： 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 宏观降息落地，价格高位支撑明显，短期基本面表现稳健，预计价格 持高位震荡，后续关注库消走势以及高位压力情况。 观点：预计价格短期偏强震荡，关注宏观情绪和矿端消息。 2025 年 11 月 4 日 后期关注/风险因素：关注宏观预期变动、地缘政治危机发展、矿端复 产情况、消费释放情况。 重要声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开的资料，我公司对信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证，也不保证包含的信 息和建议不会发生变更，我们已力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中观点、结论和建议仅供参考，投资者据此 做出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关。 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The macro atmosphere supports market sentiment. In the short term, the supply and demand of coal and coke have marginal fluctuations, generally remaining at a relatively high level. The inventory pressure is temporarily low. The prices should be treated with cautious optimism, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the previous high level [4]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Content Market Performance - Last week, the futures prices of coal and coke fluctuated strongly, and the spot market was generally stable and strong. The second round of coke price increase was implemented, and many coke enterprises started the third round of increase, which may be implemented this week [3]. Macro Environment - Last week, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates as expected, and the Sino - US trade negotiation progressed smoothly with eased frictions. The 15th Five - Year Plan in China was released beyond market expectations, which enhanced market risk appetite and supported the recovery of market sentiment [3]. Fundamental Situation Supply - Domestically, coal mines in the main production areas of Shanxi that stopped or reduced production during the National Day basically returned to normal last week, with output quickly recovering. The coking coal output rose to 779,000 tons, an increase of 27,000 tons compared with the previous week. From the import side, high - frequency data showed that the average daily customs clearance volume at the Ganqimaodu Port of Mongolian coal rose to 164,300 tons last week, an increase of 56,000 tons compared with the previous week, returning to a relatively high level [3]. Demand - Steel mill profits continued to shrink, and the profitability rate dropped to about 45%. However, from past experience, the current profitability rate will not lead to large - scale production cuts by steel mills for the time being. The decline in hot metal output last week was mainly due to environmental protection pressure in some areas of Hebei, where steel mills cut production. The average daily hot metal output dropped to 2.3636 million tons, a decrease of 35,500 tons compared with the previous week. As the peak demand season approaches the end, the pressure on finished products is increasing, and the hot metal output tends to decline. Attention should be paid to the transmission of pressure to the raw material side [3]

有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 晨报 铝锭 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：铝水比例回升 下游淡季效应显现 投资咨询业务资格： 以伊冲突 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 地址：北京市海淀区海淀大街 8 号 19 层 ☎ 400-700-6700 www.zgfcc.com 成文时间： 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 证监许可【201 ...

Group 1 - Report industry investment rating: Not mentioned Group 2 - Core view: After the rebound, the market will consolidate in the short term [3] Group 3 - Relevant logic: The Minister of Housing and Urban - Rural Development, Ni Hong, proposed to reform and improve real estate development, financing, and sales systems and promote the ready - made housing sales system. From January to September, 24,300 urban old community renovation projects were newly started, and 11 regions completed the annual plan. Last week, the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 88.61%, a decrease of 1.33 percentage points; the steel mill profitability rate was 45.02%, a decrease of 2.60 percentage points; the daily average hot metal output was 2.3636 million tons, a decrease of 35,400 tons. The average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 52.99%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points week - on - week and a decrease of 1.36 percentage points year - on - year; the average start - up rate was 68.83%, an increase of 0.97 percentage points week - on - week and a decrease of 2.7 percentage points year - on - year [2] - Market performance: Steel products rose first and then fell last week, with the overall center of gravity moving up. The rise was mainly due to macro - level benefits such as the consensus reached in Sino - US economic and trade consultations. After the macro - level benefits were realized, the fundamentals of the varieties changed little. Although some steel mills in Hebei were restricted due to environmental protection, the weekly supply - demand and inventory changes were neutral, and the low - level downstream situation limited the increase in steel prices [2] - Later concerns: Macro policies and downstream demand conditions [3]

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Group 1: Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views - The finished products are expected to move in a range-bound manner [3] - The price of aluminum is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro sentiment and mining news [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - Yungui region's short - process construction steel enterprises will have a shutdown and maintenance period during the Spring Festival from mid - January, with an estimated impact on the total construction steel output of 741,000 tons [2] - In Anhui Province, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills has stopped production on January 5th, and most of the rest will stop production around mid - January, with a daily impact on output of about 16,200 tons [3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] - The finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, reaching a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the price center of gravity continues to move down. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing weak price support [3] Aluminum - Yesterday, Shanghai Aluminum showed strong performance. Macroscopically, Powell said on Wednesday that policy differences within the Fed and lack of federal government data may make another interest rate cut this year unlikely, giving some support to the US dollar [2] - Overseas news that Rio Tinto is considering closing the Tomago aluminum smelter has a certain boosting effect on aluminum prices. The change in domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is limited. The supply of domestic bauxite remains tight, and the ore price has risen slightly, but the increase is limited due to the falling alumina price and high absolute inventory of bauxite [3] - In October, the comprehensive PMI index of aluminum processing decreased by 6.8 percentage points to 48.9%, falling below the boom - bust line. Most aluminum processing industries' PMI in October dropped significantly to the contraction range, mainly affected by weakening terminal demand and high aluminum prices [3] - Entering November, the weak inventory accumulation pressure of domestic aluminum ingots increases, which is expected to have a negative feedback effect on subsequent aluminum prices. As of Thursday, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 619,000 tons, a 1,000 - ton increase from last Thursday and a 22,000 - ton increase compared with the same period last year [3] Non - ferrous Metals - With the implementation of macro interest rate cuts, the high - level price support is obvious, and the short - term fundamentals are stable. It is expected that the price will remain in a high - level shock. Attention should be paid to the inventory - consumption trend and high - level pressure [4]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The steel price of finished products continued to rebound, with prices trending strongly. The recent macro - market sentiment has warmed up, and the upcoming meeting between Chinese and US leaders, along with environmental production restrictions in some areas of Hebei, provided support to the prices. Demand remained relatively stable, while the real - estate sector was weak. - Raw materials are expected to operate at a low level with a short - term rebound potential [1]. 3) Summary According to Relevant Content - **Macro - economic Situation**: The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75% - 4.00% for the second time this year and will end the balance - sheet reduction from December 1st. The Chinese and US leaders are to hold a meeting, which has improved the macro - market sentiment [1]. - **Cost and Profit of Steel Mills**: This week, the average含税 cost of steel billets of mainstream sample steel mills in Tangshan was 3033 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 30 yuan/ton. Compared with the ex - factory price of 3000 yuan/ton of common square billets on October 29th, the average loss of steel mills was 33 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fund Availability of Construction Sites**: As of October 28th, the fund availability rate of sample construction sites was 59.7%, a week - on - week increase of 0.08 percentage points. The fund availability rate of housing construction projects was 52.81%, a week - on - week increase of 0.05 percentage points [1]. - **Market Performance of Finished Products and Raw Materials**: Finished products continued to rebound yesterday with strong prices. Raw materials are in a low - level operation with a potential short - term rebound [1].