晨报 碳酸锂 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 碳酸锂：延续区间震荡，聚焦供需边际 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:昨日碳酸锂期货主力合约区间震荡收 164820 元/吨。资金面主力 净空延续，多空比环比下降，仓单微增 245 吨至 30211 吨。现货端，SMM 电碳均价 168000 元/吨。短期市场情绪于博弈特征明显，市场成交呈现分化 态势：上游散单报价有所收缩，出货意愿趋于谨慎；下游材料厂则出于刚 需及二月备货考虑，在价格相对低位时散单采购增加。市场整体询价与成 交活跃度有所提升，供需双方在当前价位下呈阶段性博弈。 原材料：程 鹏 基本面来看，供应端，上周原料市场分化，海外锂辉石持稳微涨，国 内现货锂矿回调。本周 SMM 碳酸锂总周度开工率 49.5%（-1.49%），除盐 湖外，其他工艺开工率均下降；SMM 总产量 21569 吨（-648 吨），环比-2.92%。 需求端结构性分化显著。本周 SMM 铁锂产量环比+1.0%，累库增加；三元 产量环比-1.1%，逐渐去库；上周动力电芯产量微降，截至 1 月 18 日，SMM 新能源车销量渗透率上升至 55.6%，储能电芯排产小幅增长托底需求，表现 强 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for raw materials is low-level consolidation [2] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The supply of finished steel products is increasing while the demand is decreasing, and steel prices are consolidating. The raw materials are expected to move in a low-level consolidation [1][2] - The rebound of finished steel products was driven by coking coal. The five major steel products showed an increase in supply and a decrease in demand, mainly due to holiday factors. The sentiment in other sectors of commodities is bullish, but currently has limited impact on the black sector. The macro market has been calm recently, providing no trend guidance for prices. Attention should be paid to the weekly fundamental changes [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Finished Steel Products - This week, the supply of the five major steel products was 8.2317 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 35,800 tons or 0.4%. The total inventory was 12.7851 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 214,300 tons or 1.7%. The weekly apparent consumption was 8.0174 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.0% [2] - A survey of 95 independent electric arc furnace steel mills on their Spring Festival shutdowns showed that most shutdowns are concentrated in February. The largest number of shutdowns, 44 mills or 47.83%, will occur from February 1st to February 8th. The remaining 9 mills will shut down after February 8th, with the latest on February 15th [2] Raw Materials - The view is that raw materials will move in a low-level consolidation [2]

晨报 铝锭 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：市场情绪波动 价格高位宽幅震荡 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:昨日沪铝高位偏强。宏观上美联储将联邦基金利率目标区间维持 在 3.5%至 3.75%之间，符合市场普遍预期。市场对美元可能贬值的担忧再 起，其影响超过了美国财长贝森特重申强势美元政策的表态。 以伊冲突 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 个别钢厂预 ...

晨报 铝锭 成文时间： 以伊冲突 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:昨日沪铝向上冲高，主要是美伊地缘冲突升级对铝产品贸易端形 成显著扰动，并且在贵金属市场限仓背景下，资金出现向基本金属板块分 流的趋势，而国内氧化铝厂近期减产预期升高，进一步推高整体市场看多 情绪。宏观上美联储结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率 目标区间维持在 3.5%至 3.75%之间，符合市场普遍预期。 右。2024 年 12 月 30 日-2025 年 1 月 5 日，10 个重点城市新建商品房成 交（签约）面积总计 223.4 万平方米，环比下降 40.3%，同比增长 43.2%。 成材昨日继续震荡下行，价格再创近期新低。在供需双弱的格局下， 市场情绪同 ...

成材：关注周度基本面变化 钢价整理运行 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 晨报 成材 观点：低位盘整运行。 后期关注/风险因素：宏观政策；下游需求情况。 重要声明： 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 原材料：程 鹏 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2026 年 1 月 29 日 逻辑：本周，唐山主流样本钢厂平均铁水不含税成本和平均钢坯含税 成本继续小幅下降，钢企亏损有所减少，较上周减少 17 元/吨，但是整体 仍然处于亏损的状态。住建部数据显示，2025 年 1-12 月份，全国新开工 改造城镇老旧小区 2.71 万个、499 万户，共完成投资 13 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Recently, the overall supply of coking coal and coke has increased month - on - month, and downstream replenishment is nearing the end. The upward driving force for coal prices is not strong. It is expected that the short - term market will fluctuate, and cautious operation is recommended [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - Yesterday, the futures prices of coking coal and coke rebounded slightly and fluctuated at night. In the spot market, some steel mills in Xingtai, Tianjin, Shijiazhuang, and Tangshan regions raised the price of wet - quenched coke by 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton, effective from 0:00 on January 30th, and this round of price increases is gradually being implemented. This week, the price of coking coal has been generally weak and stable [2] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Supply side**: Near the Spring Festival, some regional coal mines have reduced production due to safety inspections and underground conditions. This week, the production of raw coal and clean coal was 1.978 million tons and 0.771 million tons respectively. It is expected that private mines will gradually stop or reduce production during the holiday next week, and the overall production will decrease significantly. However, recently, downstream coking and steel enterprises have been actively transporting for order inventory, and the inventory at the mine end has decreased slightly, which is in line with seasonal patterns. In terms of imports, last week, the daily customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port was 158,800 tons, a decrease of 37,000 tons compared with the previous week and 32,400 tons compared with the same period last year, and the port inventory remains at a relatively high level. The overall arrival volume of seaborne coal in January decreased compared with that in December last year [2] - **Demand side**: The profitability rate of steel mills is acceptable, currently about 40%. Affected by a steel mill accident, the growth of the daily average pig iron production has slowed down. Last week, it was 2.281 million tons, a slight increase of 90 tons compared with the previous week and an increase of 26,500 tons compared with the same period last year [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoint - Recently, the overall supply of coal and coke has increased month-on-month, and the downstream replenishment is nearing the end, so the driving force for coal price increase is not strong. It is expected that the short-term market will fluctuate, and cautious operation is recommended [3] 3. Summary of Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - Yesterday, the ferrous metal sector generally declined, with coal and coke leading the decline, and the night session continued to be weak. In the spot market, the price of domestic medium and low sulfur coking coal increased by 20 - 100 yuan/ton last week and remained weakly stable this week. The price of imported Mongolian No. 5 raw coal decreased by 50 yuan/ton last week, while the forward price of Australian coal increased by 18 US dollars/ton. The increase of coke price is still under game [3] Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: This month, coal mines have increased production to cope with the output contraction caused by the Spring Festival holiday, which is in line with the seasonal pattern of previous years. It is expected that private coal mines will gradually stop production next week. Last week, the output of raw coal and clean coal in coking coal mines increased to 1.994 million tons and 770,000 tons respectively. The raw coal inventory at the mine end continued to increase, and the clean coal inventory changed from decreasing to slightly increasing. The import volume of Mongolian coal decreased last week, and the port inventory remained at a relatively high level. The overall arrival volume of seaborne coal in January decreased compared with that in December last year [3] - **Demand**: The profitability rate of steel mills is acceptable, currently about 40%. Affected by a steel mill accident, the growth of daily average pig iron output has slowed down. Last week, it was 2.281 million tons, a slight increase of 0.09 million tons compared with the previous week and an increase of 2.65 million tons compared with the same period last year. The procurement of raw materials by downstream coking and steel enterprises is still slow, and the available days of in-plant raw material inventory are generally lower than the same period of previous years. The auction failure rate in the market has increased significantly this week [3]

成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 晨报 成材 成材：随板块波动 价格震荡偏弱 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 原材料：程 鹏 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 后期关注/风险因素：宏观政策；下游需求情况。 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 重要声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开的资料，我公司对信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证，也不保证包含的信 息和建议不会发生变更，我们已力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中观点、结论和建议仅供参考，投资者据此 做出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关。 地址：北京市海淀区海淀大街 8 号 19 层 ☎ 400-700-6700 www.zgfcc.com 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2 ...

晨报 碳酸锂 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 碳酸锂：高位震荡调整，聚焦供需边际 以伊冲突 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:昨日碳酸锂期货主力合约呈震荡下行态势，日内跌幅达 6.56%， 收 165680 元/吨。资金面主力净空延续，多空比环比下降，仓单微增 490 吨至 28646 吨。现货端，SMM 电碳均价 181500 元/吨。锂价冲高时上游散 单放量，随后快速下跌触发锂盐厂惜售；下游早盘观望，跌势中部分采购 意愿上升，市场活跃度提升，备库逐步启动。 原材料：程 鹏 基本面来看，供应端，上周原料市场呈分化走势，海外锂辉石持稳微 涨，国内现货锂矿普遍回调。上周 SMM 碳酸锂总周度开工率 50.99% （-1.7%），受检修计划影响各工艺路线开工率环比下降；SMM 总产量 22217 吨（-388 吨），供应量微降。需求端结构性分化显著。上周 SMM 铁锂、 三元增产累库，动力电芯产量微降，截至 1 月 18 日，SMM 新能源车销量 渗透率上升至 55.6%，储能电芯排产小 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply of coal and coke has increased recently, the downstream replenishment is approaching the end, and the upward driving force of coal prices is not strong. It is expected that the short - term market will fluctuate, and cautious operation is recommended [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Performance - Yesterday, the futures prices of coal and coke closed slightly higher, but fell back again at night, maintaining a volatile trend overall. In the spot market, last week, the prices of domestic medium - and low - sulfur main coking coal rose by 20 - 100 yuan/ton, the price of imported Mongolian No. 5 raw coal fell by 50 yuan/ton, and the forward price of Australian coal rose by 18 US dollars/ton. The current round of coke price increase has not been fully implemented and is still in the negotiation process [2] Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: Coal supply is relatively strong. This month, coal mines are resuming production one after another, which conforms to the seasonal pattern of previous years. Last week, the production of raw coal and clean coal in coking coal mines increased to 1.994 million tons and 770,000 tons respectively. The raw coal inventory at the mine end continued to increase, and the clean coal inventory changed from decreasing to a slight increase. The daily customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port last week was 158,800 tons, a decrease of 37,000 tons compared with the previous week and 32,400 tons compared with the same period last year, and the port inventory remained at a relatively high level. The overall arrival volume of seaborne coal in January decreased compared with December last year [2] - **Demand**: The profitability rate of steel mills is acceptable, currently about 40%. The blast furnace operating rate remained stable, and the daily average pig iron output was 2.281 million tons, a slight increase of 90 tons compared with the previous week and an increase of 26,500 tons compared with the same period last year [2]