Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core Views - For building materials (成材), it is expected to run in a volatile and consolidating manner, with the price center moving down and showing weak performance. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the winter storage this year is sluggish, providing little support for prices [1][2]. - For aluminum ingots, the price is expected to run in a high - level range in the short term. The inventory trend is fluctuating during the off - season, and the upward space is limited by the off - season pressure on the demand side. Attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and downstream start - up rates [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Contents Building Materials - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises are expected to stop production for maintenance from mid - January, resuming around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5, and most others will stop around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [1][2]. - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2]. - Building materials prices continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low recently. The market sentiment is pessimistic, and there are few bright spots both macro - economically and industrially [2]. Aluminum Ingots - As of last Thursday, the total built - in production capacity of metallurgical alumina in China was 110.82 million tons/year, and the operating total production capacity was 88.63 million tons/year. The weekly alumina start - up rate decreased by 0.31 percentage points to 79.97%. By the end of June, the inventory in alumina enterprises increased by 81,000 tons [2]. - Affected by factors such as the high - temperature off - season, high aluminum prices, insufficient profit margins, and weak downstream demand, the start - up rate of the aluminum processing industry decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 58.7% last week [2]. - On July 10, 2024, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in the main consumption areas in China was 466,000 tons, a decrease of 12,000 tons from Monday and 8,000 tons from last Thursday. The inventory decreased in the short term due to more ingot casting in some areas and less arrival [2]. - The inventory trend is fluctuating during the off - season. The impact of the rainy season in Guinea is reflected in the ore price, but the off - season pressure on the demand side limits the upward space [3].

晨报 成材 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 7 月 10 日 成材：情绪降温 整理运行 逻辑：本周，唐山主流样本钢厂平均钢坯含税成本 2759 元/吨，周环 比下调 15 元/吨，与 7 月 9 日当前普方坯出厂价格 2910 元/吨相比，钢厂 平均盈利 151 元/吨，周环比增加 5 元/吨。据百年建筑调研，截至 7 月 8 日，样本建筑工地资金到位率为 58.98%，周环比上升 0.04 个百分点。其 中，非房建项目资金到位率为 60.46%，周环比下降 0.01 个百分点。 成材昨日延续震荡，整体波动不大，在经历反内卷和唐山限产对钢价 的推动后，市场交易逻辑向基本面回归。目前铁水产量高，下游需求偏弱。 在需求没有出现改善前，仍以逢高试空为主。 原材料：程 鹏 成材：情绪降温 整理运行 整理 投资咨询业 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The report suggests treating the situation with a strategy of testing short positions on rebounds [3] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Industry News - 33 construction companies jointly issued an "anti-involution" initiative to promote industry transformation and abandon "involutionary" competition [2] - Many provinces, including Hebei, Chongqing, Liaoning, Shanghai, Zhejiang, and Hubei, have a town old residential area renovation start rate of over 50% [2] - From June 30th to July 6th, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 1.9723 million square meters, a 36.6% week-on-week and 8.2% year-on-year decrease; the total transaction area of second-hand housing was 1.9685 million square meters, a 14.8% week-on-week and 4.4% year-on-year decrease [2] - In June, the sales of various excavators were 18,804 units, a 13.3% year-on-year increase, with domestic sales of 8,136 units (6.2% year-on-year increase) and exports of 10,668 units (19.3% year-on-year increase) [2] Market Situation of Steel Products - After the steel price increase last week, steel products have been consolidating in the first two trading days of this week [2] - Although information such as "anti-involution" and Tangshan production restrictions has pushed up prices, high daily average pig iron production, good steel mill profits, and weak downstream demand pose resistance to price increases [2] Investment Strategy - In the absence of effective improvement in demand, it is advisable to mainly test short positions on rebounds [2][3] Later Concerns - Macro policies and downstream demand conditions should be monitored [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating [1][2][3] Core Views - The finished products are expected to run in a volatile and consolidating manner, with the price center moving downward and running weakly [1][2] - The aluminum price is expected to run in a high - level range in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and downstream start - up [3] Summary by Related Contents Finished Products - Yunguizhou short - process construction steel enterprises' Spring Festival shutdown and maintenance time is mostly in mid - to late January, with a production resumption around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total construction steel output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills have or will shut down, with a daily production impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [1][2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2] - Finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, reaching a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the price center continues to move down. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing weak price support [2] Aluminum - Macroscopically, Trump escalated trade tensions on Monday, warning 14 countries of higher tariffs, but the effective date was postponed to August 1. The market is waiting for the Fed's latest policy meeting minutes [1] - Domestically, as of last Thursday, the total built - in production capacity of metallurgical - grade alumina was 110.82 million tons/year, the operating total capacity was 88.63 million tons/year, and the weekly start - up rate decreased by 0.31 percentage points to 79.97%. As of the end of June, the in - plant inventory of alumina enterprises increased by 81,000 tons [2] - Affected by factors such as the high - temperature off - season, high aluminum prices, insufficient profit margins, and weak downstream demand, the start - up rate of the aluminum processing industry decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 58.7% last week [2] - In the aluminum plate and strip field, enterprises actively reduced production due to insufficient orders and high inventory. In the aluminum cable field, July orders are pessimistic, but the delivery expectation of State Grid orders in the second half of the year is good. Aluminum profile enterprises have weak new orders and are under pressure due to intense processing fee competition [2] - On July 7, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 478,000 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons from last Thursday and 10,000 tons from last Monday. It is expected that the inventory of domestic aluminum ingots will increase steadily in early July [2] - Currently, the off - season inventory accumulation has initially appeared, the impact of the rainy season in Guinea is reflected in the ore price, but the off - season pressure on the demand side limits the upward space. Macro - risk pricing increases, and attention should be paid to domestic policy promotion [3]

原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 7 月 9 日 晨报 煤焦 煤焦：市场情绪反复 盘面震荡加剧 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 观点：近期市场情绪反复，基本面上焦煤供需压力稍有缓解，价格震 荡加剧，建议观望。 后期关注/风险因素：关注钢厂高炉开工变化、进口煤通关情况。 重要声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开的资料，我公司对信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证，也不保证包含的信 息和建议不会发生变更，我们已力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中观点、结论和建议仅供参考，投资者据此 做出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关。 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View of the Report - The market sentiment has been fluctuating recently. Fundamentally, the supply - demand pressure of coking coal has slightly eased, and the price volatility has intensified. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach. [4] Group 3: Summary of Relevant Content Macro - economic and Policy Impact - The US President Trump signed an executive order to extend the so - called "reciprocal tariff" suspension period from July 9 to August 1. He also threatened 14 countries with new tariff rates, which affected the market to run weakly. The end of the safety production month and the completion of the one - month inspection by the supervision team led to the resumption of production in some regional coal mines, cooling the bullish market sentiment. The meeting last Tuesday proposed anti - involution and capacity reduction, which, although mainly targeting the electric vehicle and photovoltaic industries, also disturbed the coal market sentiment due to the over - supply in the coal market, intensifying the price volatility of coking coal. [3] Fundamental Supply and Demand - **Supply**: Last week, coal mines in major production areas in Shanxi such as Changzhi and Linfen resumed production intensively, with a slight increase in output. However, there were still shortages in some phases and coal types. The daily average raw coal output of 523 coking coal mines was 1.88 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 30,000 tons. The daily average clean coal output was 739,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 100 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 27,000 tons. [4] - **Demand**: Recently, coking plants and steel mills have accelerated the replenishment of raw materials. The available days of coking coal inventory in the plants have increased from a low level. Coupled with the previous production cuts in coal mines, the inventory pressure of coking coal at the mine end has been relieved. The coking clean coal inventory at the mine end was 4.092 million tons, with a cumulative decrease of 896,000 tons in the past two weeks and a year - on - year increase of 1.26 million tons. [4] - **Import**: Recently, the customs clearance of Mongolian coal has remained at a relatively low level, and the port inventory has steadily decreased. From July 11th to 15th, the port will be temporarily closed due to the Mongolian Naadam Festival. [4]

02 本周有色行情预判 03 品种数据（铝、锌、锡） 【华宝期货】有色金属周报 华宝期货 2025.7.7 目录 01 有色周度行情回顾 周度行情回顾 | 品种 | | | 期货主力合约收盘价格 | | | 现货价格 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 2025.7.4 2025.6.27 | 周变动 | 周涨跌幅 | | | 2025.7.4 2025.6.27 | 周变动 | 周涨跌幅 | | 铜 | CU2508 | 79730 | 79920 | -190 | -0. 24% | 中国:平均价:铜:上海物贸 | 80425 | 80160 | 265 | 0. 33% | | 铝 | AL2508 | 20635 | 20580 | ככ | 0.27% | 中国:平均价:铝(A00):有色市场 | 20750 | 20940 | -190 | -0. 91% | | 锌 | ZN2508 | 22410 | 22410 | 0 | 0. 00% | 中国:价格:锌锭 ...

Report Overview - **Report Title**: [Huabao Futures] Weekly Report on the Black Industry Chain [1] - **Report Date**: July 7, 2025 [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - **Overall**: The market conditions of various varieties in the black industry chain are complex. There are opportunities for price rebounds in some varieties, but there are also risks affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, policies, and seasons. It is recommended to operate with caution and pay attention to relevant influencing factors [9][10][11] - **Specific Varieties**: - **成材**: Recommend a strategy of shorting on rebounds [9] - **Coal and Coke**: The price volatility intensifies, and the supply - demand pressure of coking coal eases slightly [10] - **Ferroalloys**: The supply - demand pattern tends to be loose, and prices are expected to follow the black market trend without more independent market trends [11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 01 周度行情回顾 - **Futures and Spot Prices**: From June 27 to July 4, 2025, the prices of most varieties in the black industry chain showed an upward trend. For example, the futures price of rebar RB2510 increased from 2995 to 3072, with a rise of 2.57%, and the spot price increased by 2.92%. However, the prices of some varieties such as coking coal and ferrosilicon decreased slightly [7] 3.2 02 本周黑色行情预判 - **成材** - **Logic**: Last week, the operating rates of blast furnaces and electric arc furnaces decreased, and the daily output of molten iron decreased. The steel price rebounded due to the anti - involution storm and production restrictions in some steel mills in Tangshan. However, it is currently the off - season of demand, and factors such as high temperature and rainfall may affect the height of the rebound [9] - **View**: Short on rebounds [9] - **Later Concerns**: Macroeconomic policies and downstream demand [9] - **Coal and Coke** - **Logic**: After the end of the safety production month and the inspection, some coal mines resumed production, which cooled the bullish sentiment. The anti - involution and capacity - reduction policies also disturbed the market sentiment, and the price volatility intensified [10] - **View**: The market sentiment is volatile recently, the supply - demand pressure of coking coal eases slightly, and the prices of coal and coke fluctuate more violently [10] - **Later Concerns**: Coal production data, the sustainability of high daily output of molten iron in steel mills, and changes in imported coal clearance [10] - **Ferroalloys** - **Logic**: The central government's policy to regulate low - price competition in enterprises affected the market. On the supply side, the production and operating rates of silicon - manganese and ferrosilicon increased; on the demand side, the demand increased slightly last week but may weaken in the future; on the inventory side, silicon - manganese inventory accumulated slightly, and ferrosilicon inventory decreased slightly; on the cost side, the cost support of silicon - manganese increased, and that of ferrosilicon was stable [11] - **View**: The macro - environment has warmed up, and the supply - demand pattern of ferroalloys tends to be loose. Prices are expected to follow the black market trend. Pay attention to supply - side disturbances and environmental protection requirements [11] - **Later Concerns**: Tariff policy evolution, domestic macro - policies, terminal demand, steel mill profits and production, and domestic production restrictions [11] 3.3 03 品种数据 3.3.1 成材 - **Rebar** - **Production and Apparent Demand**: Last week, the production was 221.08 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.24 million tons; the apparent demand was 224.87 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.96 million tons [13] - **Inventory**: The total inventory was 545.21 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.79 million tons [20] - **Basis**: In Shanghai, the basis for the 10 - month contract was 98 yuan/ton last Friday, a week - on - week increase of 13 yuan/ton [34] - **Hot - Rolled Coil** - **Production and Apparent Demand**: Last week, the production was 328.14 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.9 million tons; the apparent demand was 324.37 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.88 million tons [26] - **Inventory**: The total inventory was 344.93 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.77 million tons [31] - **Basis**: In Shanghai, the basis for the 10 - month contract was 49 yuan/ton last Friday, a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/ton [41] 3.3.2 煤焦 - **Coke** - **Inventory**: The total inventory was 930.72 million tons last week, a week - on - week decrease of 10.17 million tons [49] - **Profit and Production**: The average profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises was - 52 yuan last week, a week - on - week decrease of 6 yuan; the daily output was 64.4 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1 million tons [64] - **Basis**: The basis for the 1 - month contract of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade coke was - 193 yuan/ton last Friday, a week - on - week increase of 11 yuan/ton [71] - **Coking Coal** - **Inventory**: The total inventory was 2566.65 million tons last week, a week - on - week decrease of 4.11 million tons [56] - **Production**: The daily output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines was 73.9 million tons last week, a week - on - week increase of 0.1 million tons [65] - **Basis**: The basis for the 1 - month contract of Meng 5 clean coal was - 96 yuan/ton last Friday, a week - on - week increase of 17 yuan/ton [74] 3.3.3 铁合金 - **Spot Price**: The price of manganese ore in Tianjin Port increased by 0.5 yuan/dry ton degree week - on - week; the spot price of silicon - manganese in Inner Mongolia remained flat week - on - week; the spot price of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia decreased by 20 yuan/ton week - on - week [80] - **Inventory**: The inventory of 63 independent silicon - manganese sample enterprises was 22.23 million tons on July 4, a week - on - week increase of 0.05 million tons; the inventory of 60 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 6.7 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.244 million tons [11] - **Production and Demand**: The production of silicon - manganese and ferrosilicon increased week - on - week; the weekly demand for silicon - manganese and ferrosilicon of the five major steel varieties increased by 0.72% and 0.63% respectively week - on - week [11]

Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Views - The steel products are expected to move in a range with a downward - trending center of gravity and operate weakly. The aluminum ingot price is expected to move in a range in the short - term, with attention to macro sentiment and downstream开工 [2][5]. 3) Summary by Content Steel Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel producers will have a shutdown for maintenance from mid - January, with an expected impact on the total output of 741,000 tons during the shutdown. Six short - process steel mills in Anhui Province are also shutting down, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [3]. - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [4]. - The steel products continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand and pessimistic market sentiment, the price center of gravity has continued to move down. This year's winter storage is sluggish and provides little support for prices. The market is expected to operate in a range with a downward - trending center of gravity [4]. Aluminum - Last week, the aluminum price was strong. The US non - farm payrolls in June increased by 147,000, higher than the expected 110,000. After the non - farm data exceeded expectations, the market expects a 93% probability of unchanged interest rates in July, still expecting two rate cuts this year starting from September [3]. - As of last Thursday, the total built - in capacity of metallurgical alumina in China was 110.82 million tons/year, and the operating capacity was 88.63 million tons/year. The weekly alumina operating rate decreased by 0.31 percentage points to 79.97%. As of the end of June, the inventory in alumina enterprises increased by 81,000 tons [4]. - Affected by factors such as the high - temperature off - season, high aluminum prices, insufficient profit margins, and weak downstream demand, the weekly operating rate of the aluminum processing industry decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 58.7%. Different sectors face different challenges [4]. - On July 7, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in the mainstream consumption areas in China was 478,000 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons from last Thursday and 10,000 tons from last Monday. It is expected that the inventory will increase steadily in early July [4]. - The initial signs of inventory accumulation in the off - season have emerged. The impact of the rainy season in Guinea is gradually reflected in the ore price, but the off - season pressure on the demand side limits the upward space. The aluminum price is expected to move in a range in the short - term [5].

晨报 煤焦 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 7 月 7 日 逻辑：上周，安全生产月结束，叠加督导组完成为期一个月的进驻巡 视，部分区域煤矿逐步复产，影响市场多头情绪降温，但周二会议提出反 内卷和去产能，虽然主要针对的产业是电动汽车和光伏，但因煤炭市场供 给较为过剩，再次对市场情绪形成扰动，促使煤焦价格震荡加剧。后续关 注具体政策措施的落地。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 煤焦：供需压力稍有缓解 盘面震荡加剧 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 后期关注/风险因素：关注钢厂高炉开工变化、进口煤通关情况。 重要 ...