1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Domestic macro - narrative is positive with rising expectations of incremental monetary policy. The fundamentals of the industrial chain have improved, there is a demand for iron ore replenishment, and supply is entering the off - season. However, the price increase is limited by the industrial chain profit. It is expected to be mainly volatile in the short term [2][3]. - The expected high - price range is 810 - 820 yuan/ton, corresponding to the outer - disk (FE02) price of about 105.5 - 107.5 US dollars/ton. The strategy is range operation and covered call options [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Macro - aspect - Domestic monetary and fiscal policies are in an active reserve period. The start of the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle boosts commodities. The industrial chain is in a weak - balance stage with prices maintaining a narrow - fluctuation trend. This is because the inventory pressure at the finished - product end is continuously relieved, the industrial chain valuation rebounds, the strong spot price of iron ore supports the market, and steel mills have entered the replenishment cycle [2]. Supply - The year - end phased volume - rush of mainstream mines' shipments has ended, and the weekly shipment volume has dropped significantly. Outer - mine shipments will enter the seasonal off - season, and domestic ore supply is also in the off - season. Overall, the supply - side support is getting stronger [2]. Demand - Domestic demand is continuously rising slightly. The profitability of steel mills has rebounded after the decline in carbon - element prices. There are both blast - furnace overhauls and restarts. Some overhauled blast furnaces in Hebei and Shanxi will restart at the end of the month. In general, domestic steel - mill demand has a short - term upward trend, and the pre - holiday replenishment cycle is about to start, with replenishment demand expected to be continuously released [3]. Inventory - The imported inventory at the steel - mill end has increased month on month, but it is still at the lowest level in the same period in recent years. Attention should be paid to when the full - scale replenishment of US - dollar goods by steel mills will start. Port inventory has been continuously accumulating due to the relatively high arrival volume, and it is expected that port inventory will continue to accumulate in December [3].

晨报 煤焦 煤焦：宏观预期提振情绪 盘面震荡反弹 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 地址：北京市海淀区海淀大街 8 号 19 层 ☎ 400-700-6700 www.zgfcc.com 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2026 年 1 月 7 日 逻辑：近日央行工作会议强调，坚持稳中求进工作总基调，继续实施 适度宽松的货币政策，发挥增量政策和存量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和 跨周期调节力度；把促进经济高质量发展、物价合理回升作为货币政策的 重要考量，灵活高效运用降准降息等多种货币政策工具。刺激黑色金属板 块情绪回暖。昨日， ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, and the price of aluminum ingots is expected to be strong in the short term [2][4][5] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Finished Products - The production enterprises of short - process construction steel in the Yunnan - Guizhou region will have a shutdown and maintenance period during the Spring Festival from mid - to late January, with an expected impact on the total output of construction steel of 741,000 tons [3] - In Anhui Province, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills has stopped production on January 5th, and most of the remaining steel mills will stop production around mid - January, with a daily impact on output of about 16,200 tons [4] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [4] - The price of finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, reaching a new low in the recent period. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is also pessimistic, leading to a continuous downward shift of the price center [4] - The winter storage this year is sluggish, providing weak support for prices [4] Aluminum Ingots - Yesterday, Shanghai Aluminum showed a strong performance. Macroscopically, Fed officials had different statements, and the federal funds rate futures market still believes that the probability of the Fed keeping the interest rate unchanged at the next meeting from January 27th to 28th is about 82% [3] - As of January 6, 2026, the SMM imported bauxite index was reported at $67.65 per ton, a decrease of $0.41 per ton from the previous trading day, mainly due to the decline in the intended transaction price of both buyers and sellers compared with the previous period [4] - The average CIF price of SMM Guinea bauxite was reported at $65 per ton, a decrease of $2.5 per ton from the previous trading day [4] - In the domestic bauxite market, the tight supply in the north and the continuous weakening of alumina prices are in a game. Currently, alumina plants have a low willingness to purchase bauxite at a premium, and the domestic bauxite price is expected to have some downward space [4] - In the imported bauxite market, there are still differences in the intended transaction prices of both buyers and sellers recently. The long - term contract prices in the first quarter are generally stable, and the resumption of shipments in some mining areas also provides support for the long - term supply [4] - Last week, the operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises decreased by 1 percentage point to 59.9% compared with the previous week. The operating rate of aluminum foil remained stable, while other processed materials declined to varying degrees [4] - Since mid - December, domestic aluminum ingot inventories have started to accumulate, breaking through the two integer thresholds of 600,000 tons and 650,000 tons. The cumulative inventory increase at the end of December compared with the inventory on December 18 was close to 15% [4] - The continuous inventory accumulation of domestic aluminum ingots is mainly due to the superposition of four factors: "increased arrival of supply, weak digestion on the demand side, industrial structure adjustment, and high aluminum prices suppressing consumption" [4] - Driven by the boost of macro - sentiment and the fermentation of geopolitical risks, the price is strong at a high level. However, the domestic off - season continues, inventories are gradually accumulating, and downstream enterprises are gradually on holiday approaching the Spring Festival. Be vigilant against the high - price risk and pay attention to the continuity of macro - enthusiasm and downstream feedback [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report [1][2][3] Core Views of the Report - The price of finished products is expected to move downward with a weak trend and fluctuate and consolidate [1][2] - The market for lithium carbonate remains hot, and its price is expected to fluctuate upward in a range, focusing on marginal changes in supply and demand [1][3] Summary by Relevant Catalog Finished Products - Yunnan - Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises are expected to affect a total output of 741,000 tons of construction steel during the Spring Festival shutdown from mid - January, and the resumption time is around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills, 1 stopped production on January 5th, and most of the rest will stop production around mid - January, with an estimated daily output impact of 16,200 tons during the shutdown [1][2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2] - The price of finished products continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, market sentiment is pessimistic, and the price center of gravity continues to move downward. This year's winter storage is sluggish, and the price support is weak [2] Lithium Carbonate - Yesterday, the lithium carbonate futures opened more than 4% higher, hit an 8.99% daily limit in the afternoon and closed at that level. The main contract closed at 137,940 yuan/ton, with trading volume shrinking to 304,200 lots and open interest increasing to 535,000 lots. The main net short position pattern continued, and the long - short ratio decreased slightly [1] - On the spot side, the average price of electric carbon was 127,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the main contract was - 10,440 yuan/ton, maintaining a negative basis pattern. After the price increase, the market is in a state where upstream suppliers are reluctant to sell and downstream buyers are afraid of high prices [1] - In terms of fundamentals, last week, the weekly operating rate and weekly output of SMM lithium carbonate both increased by 1.2% month - on - month, and the supply side further released production capacity. The cost - side support continued to strengthen, and the price of upstream raw materials continued to rise [2] - There is a significant structural differentiation on the demand side. The demand for lithium iron phosphate is strong, with high year - on - year production growth and inventory reduction, benefiting from cost - effective terminal models and energy storage demand. The demand for ternary materials is weak, with a year - on - year decline in cell production and inventory accumulation in the material sector. The sales and penetration rate of new energy vehicles at the terminal have reached a high level, providing strong support for lithium carbonate demand [2] - In terms of inventory, last week, the SMM sample's total weekly inventory decreased by 0.15% month - on - month, and the de - stocking slope slowed down. The total inventory days remained at 26.1 days, the same as last week. The inventory structure shifted from the production and consumption ends to the trading end, and the tight inventory pattern remained unchanged [2] - At the policy level, the 2026 automobile trade - in subsidy policy, the Fed's interest rate cut, the Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Plan, the 14th Five - Year Plan for Energy Storage, and the series of deployments of the Central Economic Work Conference jointly support the long - term supply - demand balance. In the short term, regulatory tightening is clear, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange has taken measures such as trading limits to deal with price fluctuations [3] - On January 4, the State Council issued the "Solid Waste Comprehensive Management Action Plan", and the news of mine resumption has an impact. The upward driving force still exists, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes in supply and demand [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The industry is expected to experience low - level consolidation [3] Group 3: Summary Based on Core Content Policy and Industry Data - The Ministry of Commerce and eight other departments jointly issued a green consumption promotion action with 20 specific measures in 7 aspects including enriching green product supply and supporting new - energy vehicle purchases, and encouraging the purchase of certified green smart home appliances [2] - In December 2025, the average transaction price of newly built commercial residential buildings in 100 cities was 17,084 yuan per square meter, with a month - on - month increase of 0.28% and a year - on - year increase of 2.58%. The average price of second - hand residential buildings in 100 cities was 13,016 yuan per square meter, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.97% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.36% [2] Market Conditions of Finished Products - Yesterday, finished products fluctuated and declined. The weak downstream demand remained unchanged, and the decline of raw material coking coal also led to the decline of finished product prices. It showed characteristics of weak supply and demand, and the macro - market had limited impact on prices [2] Future Outlook - The finished products are expected to run in a low - level consolidation later [3] - Future attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [3]

从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 晨报 煤焦 煤焦：焦煤期权即将上市 短期期价表现仍偏弱 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 成文时间： 2026 年 1 月 6 日 逻辑：昨日，煤焦期货价格震荡下行，领跌黑色金属板块，夜盘延续 弱势。现货方面，上周钢厂完成对焦价的第 4 轮调降，自 11 月底至此焦 价累计下跌 200-220 元/吨。焦企利润被持续压缩，个别地区焦企有提涨 计划。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 近期大商所发布焦煤期权上市交易有关事项，焦煤期权自 2026 年 1 月 16 日（周五）起上市交易，当日 8:55-9: ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific investment ratings provided in the report Core Views of the Report - The price center of finished products is moving downward, and they are operating weakly, with an expected trend of oscillating consolidation [1][3] - Lithium carbonate is expected to oscillate upward, and attention should be focused on marginal changes in supply and demand [1][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises will have a shutdown and maintenance period during the Spring Festival from mid - to late January, with an expected resumption around the 11th - 16th day of the first lunar month, and a total impact on construction steel output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills, 1 has shut down on January 5, and most others will shut down around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total contracted area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a month - on - month decrease of 40.3% and a year - on - year increase of 43.2% [3] - Finished products continued to decline oscillatingly yesterday, reaching a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand, market sentiment is pessimistic, and this year's winter storage is sluggish, providing weak support for prices [3] Lithium Carbonate - Yesterday, the lithium carbonate futures were running at a high level. The main contract closed at 129,980 yuan/ton, with trading volume continuously shrinking to 343,600 lots and open interest increasing to 515,300 lots. The net short position of the main force continued. The average price of electric carbon in the spot market was 119,500 yuan/ton, with a negative basis of - 10,480 yuan/ton. The proportion of long - term agreements between upstream and downstream decreased this year. Upstream lithium salt plants are more willing to sell spot orders, while downstream cathode material plants plan to shut down for maintenance during the Spring Festival and mainly adopt a wait - and - see attitude in purchasing [2] - In terms of fundamentals, the weekly operating rate and output of SMM lithium carbonate both increased by 1.2% week - on - week last week, with further release of production capacity. The cost - side support is strengthening, and upstream raw material prices continue to rise. There is a significant structural differentiation on the demand side. The demand for lithium iron phosphate is strong, with high year - on - year production growth and inventory depletion. The demand for ternary materials is weak, with a year - on - year decline in cell production and inventory accumulation in the material sector. The sales and penetration rate of new energy vehicles at the terminal reached a new high, providing strong support for lithium carbonate demand. The total inventory of SMM samples decreased by 0.15% week - on - week last week, with a slower depletion slope. The total inventory days remained at 26.1 days, and the inventory structure shifted from the production and consumption ends to the trading end, with the tight inventory pattern remaining unchanged [3] - Policy - wise, the 2026 car trade - in subsidy policy, Fed rate cuts, Qinghai Salt Lake industry plan, energy storage "15th Five - Year" key points, and a series of deployments of the Central Economic Work Conference jointly support long - term supply - demand balance. In the short term, regulatory tightening is clear. On January 4, the State Council issued the "Solid Waste Comprehensive Management Action Plan", and combined with the news of mine resumption, the futures price may oscillate upward [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **成材**: Expected to run in a volatile and consolidating manner, with the price center shifting downward and showing weak performance. The market sentiment is pessimistic due to the weak supply - demand pattern, and the low - key winter storage has limited price support. The later focus is on macro - policies and downstream demand [1][3]. - **铝锭**: The price is expected to be strong in the short term. Macro - expectations boost the price, but it is necessary to be vigilant about the high - price risks during the domestic off - season with accumulating inventory. Attention should be paid to macro - guidance, macro - expectation changes, geopolitical crisis development, mine - end resumption, and consumption release [1][2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **成材** - **Production and Supply**: Yunnan - Guizhou region's short - process construction steel enterprises will have a shutdown and maintenance period during the Spring Festival (mid - to late January for shutdown and around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month for resumption), which is expected to affect the total construction steel output by 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills started to shut down on January 5, and most of the others will shut down around mid - January, with an estimated daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [2][3]. - **Real Estate Market**: From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3]. - **Market Performance**: The price continued to decline in a volatile manner, reaching a new low recently. The market sentiment is pessimistic under the weak supply - demand pattern, and the low - key winter storage has limited price support [3]. **铝锭** - **Macro - factors**: The market is concerned about key economic data that may affect the Fed's policy and global market trends. The US dollar is weakening, and geopolitical risks have led to a demand for hedging. Coupled with the domestic production capacity ceiling and short - term domestic consumption policy boost on the first day after the holiday, aluminum prices are strengthening [2]. - **Supply - side**: Newly - invested electrolytic aluminum projects in China and Indonesia are ramping up production, and the daily output is increasing. A new electrolytic aluminum project in Inner Mongolia was successfully energized on December 20, and the daily output is expected to continue to grow in the short term [3]. - **Cost and Profit**: In December, the average fully - taxed total cost of the Chinese electrolytic aluminum industry increased by 0.7% month - on - month and decreased by 23.3% year - on - year. Although the total cost increased, the cost increase was lower than the aluminum price increase, and the profit margin expanded. In December, 100% of the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was profitable [3]. - **Downstream Demand**: Last week, the operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises decreased by 1 percentage point to 59.9%. The operating rate of aluminum foil remained stable, while other processed materials declined to varying degrees [3]. - **Inventory**: Since mid - December, domestic aluminum ingot inventory has started to accumulate, breaking through the 600,000 - ton and 650,000 - ton marks. By the end of December, the cumulative inventory increase was nearly 15% compared with the inventory on December 18. The inventory accumulation is due to the combination of four factors: increased supply - side arrivals, weak demand - side digestion, industrial - structure adjustment, and high aluminum prices suppressing consumption [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Aluminum: Supported by macro - sentiment and new geopolitical crises, prices are strong at high levels. However, with the domestic off - season continuing, inventories gradually accumulating, and downstream industries going on holiday approaching the Spring Festival, be vigilant about high - price risks and focus on macro - sentiment [13]. - Zinc: Geopolitical crises trigger hedging demand, and the strength of non - ferrous metals drives up zinc prices. In the medium - to - long - term, supply increases will put pressure on the upside, but it will take time to materialize. Prices are strong within a short - term range, and attention should be paid to macro - risk events and internal and external inventory trends [14]. - Tin: Tin prices are in a high - level consolidation [15]. - Lithium Carbonate: It shows an upward trend in fluctuations, with cost support and a tight balance between supply and demand driving the price movements [16][17]. Summary According to Different Catalogs 01 Colorful Weekly Market Review - **Futures and Spot Prices**: For copper (CU2602), the futures price decreased by 0.49% week - on - week, while the spot price increased by 1.45%. For aluminum (AL2602), the futures price rose by 2.32% week - on - week, and the spot price increased by 2.09%. For zinc (ZN2602), the futures price increased by 0.45% week - on - week, and the spot price rose by 1.86%. For tin (SN2602), the futures price decreased by 4.62% week - on - week, and the spot price dropped by 2.25%. For nickel (NI2602), the futures price increased by 4.81% week - on - week, and the spot price rose by 5.34% [9]. 02 This Week's Non - Ferrous Market Forecast - **Aluminum** - **Logic**: Last week, Shanghai aluminum fluctuated strongly. Macro - concerns about key economic data, trade wars, and Fed independence persisted. Geopolitical crises boosted prices. Fundamentally, in December, China's electrolytic aluminum cost increased, but the cost increase was lower than the price increase, expanding profit margins. The downstream processing industry's开工 rate declined, and domestic aluminum ingot inventories have been increasing since mid - December due to multiple factors [13]. - **Viewpoint**: Prices are strong at high levels but beware of risks [13]. - **Follow - up Concerns**: Geopolitical crisis development, macro - policy implementation, supply increase, and consumption release [13]. - **Zinc** - **Logic**: Last week, zinc prices fluctuated strongly. The Shanghai - London ratio recovered, and the zinc ingot import window remained closed. Overseas, the Fed's meeting minutes supported further interest rate cuts, and copper and precious metals drove up the price of LME zinc. On the demand side, the galvanizing start - up rate decreased, and zinc inventories in galvanizing enterprises declined. The bonded - area inventory remained stable [14]. - **Viewpoint**: Zinc prices are driven up by non - ferrous metals, with medium - to - long - term supply pressure [14]. - **Follow - up Concerns**: Macro - policy implementation, mine - end production release, and consumption release [14]. - **Tin** - **Logic**: In November 2025, China's tin ore imports showed a complex trend. Indonesia's refined tin exports increased. Myanmar's supply accelerated, and downstream demand weakened, leading to inventory accumulation [15]. - **Viewpoint**: Tin prices are in high - level consolidation [15]. - **Follow - up Concerns**: Myanmar's resumption of production and the situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate** - **Logic**: Last week, the lithium carbonate contract fluctuated greatly. On the supply side, raw material prices rose, and production capacity increased steadily. On the demand side, there was a significant structural differentiation. Social inventories increased, and the overall inventory was still tight. The profit pattern was also differentiated [17]. - **Viewpoint**: It shows an upward trend in fluctuations, with cost support and a tight balance between supply and demand driving the price movements [16][17]. - **Follow - up Concerns**: Raw material price fluctuations, production capacity release rhythm, terminal demand, market sentiment, funds, and policy changes [17]. 03 Variety Data Aluminum - **Bauxite** - **Price**: Domestic high - grade bauxite in Henan remained unchanged week - on - week, with a year - on - year decrease of 50 yuan/ton; domestic low - grade bauxite also remained unchanged week - on - week, with a year - on - year decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the average import price index decreased by 1.98 week - on - week and 37.44 year - on - year [22]. - **Arrival and Departure Volumes**: The arrival volume at ports increased by 1.87 week - on - week and 15.79 year - on - year; the departure volume decreased by 56.57 week - on - week and increased by 46.53 year - on - year [27]. - **Alumina**: The domestic price in Henan decreased by 5 week - on - week and 2940 year - on - year. The full cost decreased by 18.3 week - on - week and 622.1 year - on - year, and the profit in Shanxi decreased by 5 week - on - week and 2638.3 year - on - year [30]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum** - **Total Cost**: The total cost decreased by 68.58 week - on - week and 5256.98 year - on - year [32]. - **Regional Price Difference**: The price difference between Foshan and SMM A00 aluminum increased by 20 week - on - week and decreased by 210 year - on - year [32]. - **Downstream Processing**: The start - up rates of various downstream products, such as aluminum cables, aluminum foil, etc., showed different degrees of change [38][39]. - **Inventory**: Different types of inventories, including bonded - area, social, and exchange inventories, changed in different directions [44][45]. - **Spot and Basis**: The basis of different contracts decreased week - on - week and year - on - year [51]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The spreads between different contracts increased week - on - week and year - on - year [52]. Zinc - **Zinc Concentrate** - **Price and Processing Fee**: The domestic zinc concentrate price increased by 812 week - on - week and decreased by 6 year - on - year. The domestic processing fee decreased by 100 week - on - week and 350 year - on - year, and the import processing fee decreased by 3.64 week - on - week [62]. - **Production Profit, Import Profit and Loss, and Inventory**: The enterprise production profit increased by 196 week - on - week and decreased by 1682 year - on - year. The import loss decreased by 14.44 week - on - week and increased by 677.97 year - on - year. The import zinc concentrate inventory in Lianyungang increased by 1 week - on - week and 4 year - on - year [66]. - **Refined Zinc Inventory**: Different types of refined zinc inventories, such as social, bonded - area, and exchange inventories, changed in different directions [69]. - **Galvanizing**: The production decreased, the start - up rate decreased, the raw - material inventory decreased, and the finished - product inventory decreased [73]. - **Zinc Basis and Inter - month Spread**: The basis and spreads of different contracts changed week - on - week and year - on - year [77][78]. Tin - **Refined Tin Production and Start - up Rate**: The combined production of Yunnan and Jiangxi increased by 0.0012 week - on - week, and the combined start - up rate increased by 0.25 week - on - week [87]. - **Tin Ingot Inventory**: SHFE tin ingot inventory and social inventory decreased week - on - week and increased year - on - year [90]. - **Tin Concentrate Processing Fee**: The processing fees in different regions remained unchanged week - on - week and decreased year - on - year [93]. - **Tin Ore Import Profit and Loss**: The import profit and loss level increased by 25281.48 week - on - week and 27442.54 year - on - year [94]. - **Spot Average Price**: The average prices of tin concentrates in different regions decreased by 8300 week - on - week and increased by 81950 year - on - year [101]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Index**: The prices of various lithium carbonate products, including the main contract, SMM index, and different grades, showed different degrees of change week - on - week and year - on - year [104]. - **Supply Side** - **Raw Material Market**: The prices of all types of raw materials increased significantly both week - on - week and year - on - year, strengthening cost support [106][107]. - **Start - up Rate**: The overall start - up rate of lithium carbonate increased, with different changes in different production methods [109][113]. - **Production**: The total production and production of different production methods of lithium carbonate increased, except for lithium - mica - produced lithium carbonate [115]. - **Demand Side** - **Downstream Cathode Materials**: The inventory and production of ternary and iron - lithium materials changed in different ways [122]. - **Terminal Market**: The sales volume of domestic passenger cars and new - energy vehicles increased, and the production of power cells showed different trends for different types [126]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory increased, sample inventory de - stocking slowed down, and the overall inventory was still tight [138]. - **Cost and Profit**: The profit pattern of lithium carbonate was significantly differentiated, with the opening of the delivery arbitrage window and increasing import profit [140][142].

【华宝期货】黑色产业链周报 华宝期货 2026.1.5 以上内容谨代表个人观点，投资者据此做出的任何投资决策与华宝期货有限公司和作者无关，据此入市交易，风险自负！投资有风险，入市需谨慎！ 目录 01 周度行情回顾 02 本周黑色行情预判 03 品种数据（成材、铁矿石、煤焦、铁合金） 以上内容谨代表个人观点，投资者据此做出的任何投资决策与华宝期货有限公司和作者无关，据此入市交易，风险自负！投资有风险，入市需谨慎！ 01 周度行情回顾 | 品种 | | | 期货主力合约收盘价格 | | | 现货价格 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2025.12.31 | 2025.12.26 | | 价格变动 | 2025.12.31 | | 2025.12.26 | 价格变动 | 涨跌幅 | | 螺纹钢 | RB2605 | 3122 | 3118 | 4 | 0.13% | HRB400E: Φ20: 汇总价格: 上海 | 3300 | 3290 | 10 | 0.30% | | 热轧卷板 ...