Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - The industry is rated to be in low - level operation [3] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The report focuses on the steel industry, with the government taking measures to address price competition. There are changes in production costs, capacity utilization, and supply - demand and inventory. The market shows a slight price rebound after the festival, and the overall situation is relatively stable with weak actual terminal performance [1][2] Group 3: Summary According to Content Policy - The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued an announcement on governing price disorderly competition and maintaining a good market price order, guiding relevant institutions to investigate and evaluate the average industry cost [2] Cost - A survey of 91 blast - furnace steel mills in the country showed that the average含税 cost of rebar at the end of September was 3,106 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 37 yuan/ton, with a loss of 60 yuan/ton [2] Production Capacity - The average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric - arc furnace steel mills in the country this week was 51.07%, a month - on - month increase of 0.23 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.01 percentage points; the average operating rate was 67.06%, a month - on - month increase of 1.19 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.8 percentage points [2] Supply - Demand and Inventory - The supply of five major steel products this week was 863,310 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3,760 tons, a decrease of 0.4%; the total inventory was 1,600,720 tons, a week - on - week increase of 127,860 tons, an increase of 8.7%; the weekly consumption was 751,430 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 32.8% in building materials consumption and a month - on - month decrease of 7.8% in plate consumption [2] Market Performance - After the festival, the first - day performance of finished products fluctuated, with two varieties closing in the red but with small increases. The market was calm during the festival. The significant decline in the apparent demand of the five major steel products on a weekly basis was mainly due to the holiday. The overall supply - demand and inventory situation was relatively stable, and the actual terminal performance was weak. After the release of the government's price competition governance announcement, the night - trading of the black series was generally strong [2] Future Concerns - Macro - policies and downstream demand conditions should be monitored [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The rating for the building materials industry is "Oscillatory consolidation" [3]. - The rating for the aluminum industry is "Expected to be strong in the short - term and oscillatory, pay attention to macro - sentiment and mining news" [4]. 2. Core Views - For building materials, in a pattern of weak supply and demand, with pessimistic market sentiment, the price center continues to decline. The winter storage this year is sluggish, and the price is expected to oscillate and consolidate. Later, attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [3]. - For aluminum, in the short - term, due to the continuous overseas interest - rate cut expectation, the favorable macro - atmosphere and stable fundamentals, the price is expected to remain oscillating at a high level. Attention should be paid to the inventory - consumption trend [4]. 3. Summary according to Content For building materials - **Production suspension situation**: Yungui region's short - process construction steel enterprises will suspend production from mid - January, with an expected impact on the total production of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5, most will stop around mid - January, and some will stop after January 20, affecting the daily output by about 16,200 tons [2][3]. - **Real - estate transaction data**: From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase from the same period last year [3]. - **Market situation**: Building materials prices continued to decline and reached a new low. With weak supply and demand and pessimistic sentiment, the price center moved down. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing little support for prices [3]. For aluminum - **Production data**: In September, domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased by 1.14% year - on - year and decreased by 3.18% month - on - month. In September, the proportion of molten aluminum increased slightly, and in the first week of October, the overall start - up rate of aluminum processing adjusted seasonally with obvious internal differentiation [3]. - **Sub - sectors of aluminum processing**: The start - up rate of aluminum cables decreased due to logistics and price factors, but orders are strong and are expected to recover. The start - up rate of aluminum profiles decreased slightly, with weak new orders for building profiles and differentiated performance of industrial materials and photovoltaic frames. The start - up rate of aluminum sheets and strips decreased by 1 percentage point, affected by capital and accounts receivable. The start - up rate of aluminum foil decreased slightly, with stable demand for industrial products but weakening peak - season momentum [3]. - **Inventory situation**: On October 9, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in major domestic consumption areas was 649,000 tons, an increase of 57,000 tons from September 29 and 32,000 tons from September 25. The destocking in September was less than expected, and the premium of electrolytic aluminum may face pressure in the early post - festival period. In October, some northern enterprises expect to increase the proportion of molten aluminum, and the ingot - casting volume is expected to remain low, supporting the aluminum price [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoint of the Report - The supply and demand of coking coal and coke remain relatively high. The peak demand season combined with the downstream's remaining restocking space supports the confidence of the raw material market to hold prices firm. In the short term, the futures market will maintain a wide - range volatile operation [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Coal and Coke Market - On the first trading day after the holiday, the futures prices of coking coal and coke rebounded with oscillations and closed in the green. Driven by downstream restocking during the holiday, the first round of coke price increase was completed. The price of tamped dry - quenched coke increased by 55 yuan/ton, and tamped wet - quenched coke increased by 50 yuan/ton [2] - After the first - round price increase of coke, the profits of coke enterprises have improved. Most coke enterprises maintain a normal production rhythm, with a capacity utilization rate of around 75%. Although the transportation capacity in the main production areas was slightly affected during the holiday and logistics was relatively slow, coke shipments were in an orderly manner without blockages [2] - Steel mills' operations remain at a relatively high level, with the daily average pig iron output maintained at around 2.42 million tons, which supports the demand for raw materials [2] Coking Coal Market - The coking coal market is generally stable, with individual mine prices adjusting downward from high levels. Currently, the inventory pressure at the coal mine end is not obvious, supporting relatively firm prices [3] - The fourth - quarter long - term contract price of Mongolian coking coal at the pithead has increased from 53.54 - 54.35 US dollars to 57.3 - 58.15 US dollars, an increase of about 7%, with the warehouse - delivery equivalent price at about 770 - 800 yuan/ton. It is rumored that after the National Day, Mongolian coal customs clearance will increase the transportation capacity through automated loading and unloading, with the daily customs clearance volume increasing from the previous upper limit of 1,500 to 2,000, and a one - month trial operation after the National Day, which needs continuous tracking [3]

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Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The price of finished products is expected to move in a sideways consolidation, while the price of aluminum ingots is expected to be strong in the short - term and fluctuate, with attention paid to macro - sentiment and mine - end news [2][4][5] 3) Summary by Related Contents Finished Products - The production of short - process construction steel enterprises in the Yunnan - Guizhou region during the Spring Festival shutdown is expected to affect a total of 741,000 tons of construction steel output, and 6 short - process steel mills in Anhui Province will also have varying degrees of shutdown, with a daily impact of about 16,200 tons of output [3][4] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [4] - The price of finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, reaching a new low in the recent period. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is also pessimistic, and the price center of gravity continues to move down. This year's winter storage is sluggish, and the price support is not strong [4] - The finished products are expected to move in a sideways consolidation, and attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [4] Aluminum Ingots - During the holiday, non - ferrous metals in the external market generally rose, and LME aluminum was strong. The US government shutdown has entered the eighth day, and Fed officials believe that the risks in the US job market have increased enough to support interest rate cuts, but many policymakers are still vigilant about high inflation [3] - In September, the domestic electrolytic aluminum output increased by 1.14% year - on - year and decreased by 3.18% month - on - month. The aluminum - water ratio of domestic electrolytic aluminum plants rebounded slightly. The comprehensive PMI index of aluminum processing increased by 2.4 percentage points to 55.7%. Different sub - sectors showed structural differentiation [4] - On October 9, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in the domestic mainstream consumption areas was 649,000 tons, an increase of 57,000 tons compared with September 29 and an increase of 32,000 tons compared with September 25. The destocking in September was less than expected, and the premium of electrolytic aluminum is expected to face certain pressure in the early post - holiday period. In October, the aluminum - water ratio of some northern enterprises is expected to increase, and the ingot casting volume is expected to remain low, which will support the aluminum price [4] - With the continuous expectation of overseas interest rate cuts, the short - term macro - favorable atmosphere and the stable fundamentals, the price is expected to remain high and fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the inventory - consumption trend. The price of aluminum ingots is expected to be strong in the short - term and fluctuate, and attention should be paid to macro - expectations, geopolitical crises, mine - end resumption, and consumption release [4][5]

Group 1: Report's Core View - The supply and demand sides of coking coal and coke remain at a relatively high level. The peak demand season and the downstream's inventory replenishment space support the price - holding confidence in the raw material market. The short - term futures market will maintain a wide - range volatile operation [3][4] Group 2: Industry Analysis Coke Market - During the National Day holiday, the coking coal and coke market was generally stable with a slight upward trend. Driven by downstream inventory replenishment, coke completed the first round of price increase at the beginning of the month. The price of tamping dry - quenched coke increased by 55 yuan/ton, and that of tamping wet - quenched coke increased by 50 yuan/ton [3] - After the first - round price increase of coke, coke enterprises' profits improved. Most coke enterprises maintained a normal production rhythm, with a capacity utilization rate of about 75%. Although the transportation capacity in the main production areas was slightly affected during the holiday and logistics was relatively slow, coke shipments were in an orderly manner [3] - Steel mills'开工 remained at a relatively high level, with the daily average pig iron output maintaining at about 2.42 million tons, which supported the demand for raw materials [3] Coking Coal Market - The coking coal market was generally stable, with individual mine prices experiencing high - level corrections. The current inventory pressure at the coal mine end was not obvious, which supported the relatively firm price [4] - Regarding imported coal, the fourth - quarter long - term contract price of Mongolian coal at the pithead increased from 53.54 - 54.35 US dollars to 57.3 - 58.15 US dollars, an increase of about 7%, with the equivalent warehouse price of about 770 - 800 yuan/ton. It was rumored that after the National Day, Mongolian coal customs clearance would increase the transportation capacity through automated loading and unloading, increasing the daily customs clearance volume from the previous upper limit of 1,500 to 2,000, with a one - month trial operation after the National Day, which needed continuous tracking [4]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The finished products are expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, with the price center shifting downward and showing a weak trend [2][3]. - The aluminum ingot price is expected to remain high in the short - term, and attention should be paid to macro sentiment and mine - end news. Before the holiday, it is expected to oscillate at a high level, and later, the inventory - consumption trend should be monitored. Be vigilant about long - holiday risks [2][4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - The short - process construction steel enterprises in the Yunnan - Guizhou region will stop production for maintenance from mid - January to the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui Province, one of the 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5th, and most of the others will stop around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [2][3]. - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3]. - The finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, reaching a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and this year's winter storage is sluggish, providing little support for prices [3]. - Future factors to watch include macro policies and downstream demand [3]. Aluminum Ingots - The aluminum market supply has increased slightly due to the ramping - up of replacement capacity, and the supply - demand pattern is improving marginally. The aluminum processing comprehensive PMI index in September increased by 2.4 percentage points to 55.7% [3]. - Different aluminum sub - industries show different performances. The aluminum plate and strip industry PMI is in the expansion range, the aluminum foil industry PMI reaches 62.5%, the building profile industry PMI is below the boom - bust line, the aluminum cable industry PMI rises to 53.8%, the primary aluminum alloy PMI is above the boom - bust line, and the recycled aluminum industry PMI rebounds to 61.2% [3]. - With the decline in aluminum prices, processing plants have some stocking demand for the double festivals, and social inventories have decreased. On September 29, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in the main domestic consumption areas was 592,000 tons, a decrease of 25,000 tons from last Thursday and 46,000 tons from last Monday [3]. - Future factors to watch include changes in macro expectations, the development of geopolitical crises, mine - end resumption of production, and consumption release [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply and demand of coking coal and coke are both increasing. The peak demand season and pre - holiday restocking by downstream enterprises support the price - holding confidence in the raw material market. The futures market maintains a wide - range volatile operation, and investors should pay attention to position - holding risks before the holiday [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - In the past two days, the prices of coking coal and coke futures have been fluctuating weakly, driving the overall sector to weaken. On the spot market, coal prices in many places have remained stable after a continuous small - scale rebound. Due to increased costs, coke enterprises in many places plan to raise coke prices for the first time [2] Fundamental Analysis - Tangshan is affected by environmental protection policies and requires enterprises to prepare for hard emission - reduction measures before the end of September. However, most of the production restrictions are voluntary, and the actual implementation of production cuts is average. The daily average pig iron output last week increased by 13,400 tons to 2.4236 million tons, and the consumption of raw materials remains at a high level. Steel mills are generally profitable, and in the short - term, as the National Day holiday approaches, the downstream restocking enthusiasm is high, and the inventory of coking coal and coke is further transferred from upstream to downstream [2] Supply - side Situation - At the coal mine end, the production of previously resumed coal mines in Linfen, Shanxi has returned to normal, and the output has continued to rise. Coupled with the increased production of a large mining group in Qinyuan, Changzhi, the output has increased significantly. The daily average output of clean coal last week was 772,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 26,000 tons. It is expected that the output of coal mines in the main producing areas of Shanxi will not fluctuate much this week, but some coal mines have reported that there will be a short - term shutdown for maintenance during the National Day holiday, and the output may decline slightly during this period [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the macro - economic situation at home and abroad, as well as the market conditions of aluminum, zinc, and tin in the fourth quarter of 2025. Overseas, the US economic growth momentum is weakening, and the eurozone shows a mild recovery. Domestically, the economy is in a state of fluctuating recovery, and domestic demand needs policy support. In the non - ferrous metals market, the prices of different metals are affected by various factors such as supply, demand, and macro - policies, and each has different price trends and investment outlooks [4][55][56]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro: Fed Restarts Preventive Rate Cut, Domestic Economy Awaits Policy Drive Market Operation Logic - **US**: Economic growth momentum is weakening, with the manufacturing sector in a contraction zone and the service sector being the main economic support. The labor market is deteriorating, inflation is showing a slight rebound, and the Fed cut interest rates in September. The market expects a high probability of a rate cut in October, but future policies will depend on employment and inflation data [19][20][21]. - **Eurozone**: The manufacturing sector is under pressure again, while the service sector drives a mild economic recovery. Inflation is stable, and the ECB kept interest rates unchanged in September [28][29][30]. - **Domestic**: Investment growth momentum is insufficient, with infrastructure, manufacturing, and real estate investment facing challenges. Consumption shows weakening recovery momentum, but may pick up in the fourth quarter. Exports and imports maintain stable growth, and prices are expected to gradually recover [35][40][45]. Market Trend Judgment - Overseas: The US economic growth momentum is weakening, and the eurozone is in a mild recovery. The Fed may cut interest rates in October, and the ECB will be cautious about further rate cuts [55]. - Domestic: Investment growth momentum is declining, but infrastructure and manufacturing investment may stabilize and grow in the fourth quarter. Consumption may recover mildly, and exports and imports are expected to continue to grow. Prices are expected to gradually recover [56]. Later Concerns/Risk Factors Overseas economic trends, monetary policy changes, US tariff policy evolution, overseas geopolitical risks, domestic incremental policies, and terminal demand conditions [59]. Aluminum: Peak Season Drives Inventory Reduction, Focus on the Strength of "Silver October" Market Operation Logic - **Price Trend in Q3 2025**: The price of Shanghai aluminum fluctuated. In July, it first rose and then fell; in August, it remained high; in September, it rose first and then fell [61][62]. - **Cost Side**: Bauxite prices may show a weak - oscillation trend in the short term, and alumina prices are expected to continue to decline. The cost of electrolytic aluminum is expected to decline slightly [66][72][76]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The operating capacity remains high, and the import loss is expanding [78][80]. - **Scrap Aluminum**: The price difference between refined and scrap aluminum has narrowed, and the industry is greatly affected by policies [82]. - **Demand Side**: The processing end shows a phased recovery, and the terminal demand is differentiated. The real estate market is still in adjustment, while the power, automotive, and other industries support demand [87][90][94]. - **Supply - Demand Balance and Inventory**: Inventory has decreased, providing support for aluminum prices [96]. Market Trend Judgment In the short term, aluminum prices are strongly supported at high levels during the peak season, but there is room for adjustment after the peak season. The price range in the fourth quarter is expected to be between 19,800 - 20,000 for support and 21,000 - 21,500 for resistance [100]. Later Concerns/Risk Factors Macro - policy games, overseas event disturbances, mine resumption and shipping conditions, inventory trends, and actual terminal demand performance [102]. Zinc Ingot: High Supply Meets Structural Demand, Inventory Pressure Needs to be Verified in Peak Season Market Operation Logic - **Price Trend in Q3 2025**: Zinc prices first rose and then fell. In the off - season, supply pressure was high, and demand was weak. In September, prices were supported by the peak season and interest - rate cut expectations but then adjusted [104][106][107]. - **Zinc Concentrate**: New production capacity is being released, and the resource shortage is gradually easing. Domestic and foreign processing fees are expected to diverge, and the import loss is expanding [108][112][116]. Market Trend Judgment In October, zinc prices are expected to continue to fluctuate, with a reference range of 21,500 - 22,500 yuan/ton [8]. Later Concerns/Risk Factors No specific information provided in the given text. Tin Ingot: Probability of Overseas Supply Increase, Risk of Price Center Decline Market Operation Logic - **Supply Side**: The resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State is the key factor. The delay in mining progress has affected smelter operations, and processing fees are at a low level [9]. - **Demand Side**: The semiconductor, automotive, and home appliance industries support tin demand, but the growth rate may slow down in the fourth quarter [9]. Market Trend Judgment Tin prices may decline from high - level oscillations in the fourth quarter, mainly depending on the increase in production in Myanmar's Wa State [9]. Later Concerns/Risk Factors No specific information provided in the given text.

——2025 年 4 季度黑色金属分析报告 宏观：美联储重启预防式降息 国内经济仍待政策驱动 核心观点： 负责人：赵 毅 宏观/成材：武秋婷 海外方面，受全球需求疲软、贸易摩擦及供应链重构影响，美国经济增长动能有所 放缓。制造业表现疲软，并未出现反转信号，但服务业相对强劲成为经济增长的主要引 擎，劳动力市场增长近乎停滞，下行风险上升，通胀水平呈小幅反弹趋势，核心通胀粘 性仍较强，且关税政策不确定性或继续推高通胀压力。市场普遍预期美联储 10 月份降 息概率仍然较高，但未来路径将继续紧密跟踪就业和通胀数据。欧元区制造业收缩态势 加剧，而服务业则成为稳定经济的关键力量，整体通胀率符合欧洲央行通胀目标，核心 通胀率则保持坚挺，潜在价格压力仍存。欧元区经济整体呈现温和复苏态势，通胀走势 也总体可控，美欧贸易协议达成也在一定程度上降低了贸易不确定性，在此背景下，欧 央行对再度降息将保持谨慎态度。市场对欧央行 10 月降息的预期也存在不确定性。 黑色季报 4 季度 弱现实主导盘面 供给端仍存扰动 原材料： 冯艳成 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号： 国内方面，投资端，基础设施投资和制造业投资增速均延续回落趋势，对整体投资 支 ...