晨报 碳酸锂 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 碳酸锂：市场情绪回温 盘面偏强运行 以伊冲突 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 原材料：程 鹏 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2026 年 2 月 4 日 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:昨日碳酸锂期货主力合约涨 4.63%收至 148100 元/吨。资金面主 力净空延续，多空比环比微增，注册仓单增至 33084 吨。现货端，SMM 电 碳均价 153500 元/吨，电工价差 3500 元/吨。从市场成交情况看，上游锂盐 厂散单出货意愿较低，表现清淡；下游部分材料厂则在价格相对低位积极 询 ...

晨报 铝锭 投资咨询业务资格： 以伊冲突 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:昨日沪铝深度回调一度跌停，贵金属抛售引发避险情绪，市场对 流动性宽松的预期落空,资金从大宗商 ...

以伊冲突 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 晨报 碳酸锂 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 碳酸锂：区间震荡企稳 警惕短期剧烈波动 投资咨询业务资格： 原材料：程 鹏 基本面来看，供应端，上周原料市场普涨；SMM 碳酸锂总周度开工率 49.5%（-1.49%），除盐湖外，其他工艺开工率均下降；SMM 总产量 21569 吨（-648 吨），环比-2.92%。需求端结构性分化显著。上周 SMM 铁锂产量 环比+1.0%，累库增加；三元产量环比-1.1%，逐渐去库；上周动力电芯产 量微降，截至 1 月 18 日，SMM 新能源车销量渗透率上升至 55.6%；储能 电芯表现强劲，产销两旺且库存低位。库存方面，上周 SMM 四地样本社会 库存环比-5.6%（-2450 吨），样本周度库存环比-1.3%（-1414 吨），总库 存天数增至 28.5 天，下游库存天数增至 10.8 天，上游及其他环节天数下降， 库存结构分化显著。 宏观政策层面，需求侧，汽车以旧换新补贴、电池出口退税政策多重 激励刺激终端消费与改善宏观流动性；供给侧，1 月 15 日，国家 ...

Report Summary - **Report Title**: [Huabao Futures] Weekly Report on the Non - ferrous Metal Industry Chain [1] - **Report Date**: February 2, 2026 - **Reporting Company**: Huabao Futures 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report Core Views - **Tin Ingot**: Fluctuations increase, and it is advisable to avoid participation in the short term. Later, focus on the resumption of production in Myanmar and the situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It will stabilize in a wide - range interval, and it is necessary to avoid risks of sharp fluctuations. Later, pay attention to policy implementation effects, marginal changes in supply and demand, inventory evolution trends, macro and regulatory risks, and cost - profit transmission [27]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 01 Week - to - Week Market Review - **Tin Ingot**: Last week, the main tin ingot contract hit a new high and then sharply corrected. As of Monday morning this week, it hit the daily limit down. Tin ingot prices have been highly volatile recently, affected by both a fragile supply side and capital games. High prices have curbed downstream consumption, and demand is expected to weaken before the holiday [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate market rose strongly last week. The main contract closed at 148,200 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 18.36%. On the spot side, the average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate rose 7.15% week - on - week to 170,900 yuan/ton. The price increase promoted upstream sales, and downstream demand was mainly for rigid needs. When the futures price fell to the spot price range, downstream inquiries increased, driving up the spot price [27]. 3.2 02 Variety Data 3.2.1 Tin Ingot - **Refined Tin - Production and Capacity Utilization**: In the week of January 30, the combined production of Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces was 0.336 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0022 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.1055 million tons. The combined capacity utilization rate was 69.34%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.45% and a year - on - year increase of 21.77% [12]. - **Tin Ingot - Inventory**: In the week of January 30, the total SHFE tin ingot inventory was 10,468 tons, a week - on - week increase of 748 tons and a year - on - year increase of 3,430 tons. The social inventory in different regions of China was 10,843 tons, a week - on - week increase of 165 tons and a year - on - year increase of 2,574 tons [15]. - **Tin Concentrate Processing Fees**: The processing fees in Yunnan (40%), Guangxi (60%), Hunan (60%), and Jiangxi (60%) remained flat week - on - week in the week of January 30, with year - on - year increases of 500 yuan/ton [17]. - **Tin Ore - Import Profit and Loss**: In the week of January 30, the import profit and loss level was 25,619.93 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3,570.44 yuan/ton and a year - on - year increase of 11,069.8 yuan/ton [18]. - **Spot - Average Price**: The average prices of 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan and 60% tin concentrate in Guangxi, Hunan, and Jiangxi all increased by 8,350 yuan/ton week - on - week in the week of January 30, with year - on - year increases of 179,350 yuan/ton [22]. 3.2.2 Lithium Carbonate - **Supply - Capacity Utilization**: Last week, the total weekly capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate was 49.5%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.9% and a year - on - year increase of 42.82%. The capacity utilization rates of different production methods showed varying trends [32]. - **Supply - Production**: The total weekly production of lithium carbonate last week was 21,569 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.92% (648 tons) and a year - on - year increase of 72.66%. Except for the increase in the production of lithium carbonate from salt lakes, the production of other raw material routes decreased week - on - week [33]. - **Demand - Cathode Materials**: The cathode material structure was differentiated. The weekly inventory of ternary precursor plants increased, the production of ternary materials decreased, and the production of lithium iron phosphate increased [40]. - **Demand - Terminal Market**: The total demand was under pressure, but energy storage performed strongly with healthy inventory reduction. The production of power cells decreased slightly, and the production and sales of energy storage cells increased significantly [45]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of lithium carbonate decreased, and the total sample inventory decreased. There were signs of inventory transfer from upstream to downstream [50]. - **Cost and Profit - Raw Material Market**: The prices of lithium raw materials such as spodumene, lepidolite, and amblygonite all increased last week [53].

【华宝期货】黑色产业链周报 华宝期货 2026.2.2 以上内容谨代表个人观点，投资者据此做出的任何投资决策与华宝期货有限公司和作者无关，据此入市交易，风险自负！投资有风险，入市需谨慎！ 目录 01 周度行情回顾 02 本周黑色行情预判 03 品种数据（成材、煤焦、铁合金） 以上内容谨代表个人观点，投资者据此做出的任何投资决策与华宝期货有限公司和作者无关，据此入市交易，风险自负！投资有风险，入市需谨慎！ 01 周度行情回顾 | 品种 | | | 期货主力合约收盘价格 | | | 现货价格 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | BOOKSONOMIC | | 2026.1.30 | 2026.1.23 | 价格变动 | 涨跌幅 | | 2026.1.30 | 2026.1.23 | 价格变动 | | | 螺纹钢 | RB2605 | 3128 | 3142 | -14 | -0.45% | HRB400E: Φ20: 汇总价格: 上海 | 3250 | 3270 | -20 | -0.61% ...

板块成交额变化 (%) 120 – 100 80 60 40 20 0 -20 - 7 板块资金流向 (%) 4 - 2 - 0 E -2 - -4 - -6 - -8 -10 – R xXIIII) joidi #A TRINGS ste: Net Mights Bro Aty 1978 18 REDITERS THE PE AFFER WND 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 沪 沪 沪 集 锌 锡 铜 点击 架 媒 部 锰 铁 硅 焦 热 焦 螺 不 硅 绒 煤 煤 轧 炭 纹 锈 硅 壁 塑 铁 煤 机 炭 纹 锈 塑 钢 钢 钢 钢 钢 n > U (亿元) (%) 4 2 0 T -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 沪 沪 沪 沪 沪 沪 沪 金 银 铝 镍 锌 锡 铜 沪 锰 铁 硅 焦 热 焦 螺 不 铅 硅 矿 铁 煤 轧 炭 纹 锈 铝 硅 矿 铁 煤 轧 炭 纹 锈 板 LS > C 载 現 阿 (%) 150 120 90 60 30 0 -30 沪 沪 沪 沪 沪 沪 沪 沪 沪 铝 铝 铁 硅 焦 热 焦 螺 下 玻 金 银 铝 镍 锌 锡 铜 铝 硅 ...

晨报 铁矿石 铁矿石： 宏观驱动减弱 逢高空配为主 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 2 月 2 日 逻辑：宏观方面，美联储下任主席沃什偏鹰派，引发贵金属以及有色商品出现阶段性回落； 国内方面，1 月份 PMI 数据再度回落至荣枯线以下，国内经济复苏呈现脉冲式特征，扩大内需 政策仍需继续发力。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 负责人：赵 毅 供应方面：当前外矿发运整体仍处于发运淡季，本期周度发运量小幅环比回升，根据季节 性规律，在 2 月中旬之前，外矿发运将保持环比走弱态势，但当前外矿发运水平高于近五年同 期且远高于去年同期水平，主因是外矿发运稳定性较高且去年同期澳洲受飓风影响导致发运基 数偏低；国产矿供给同样处于淡季，整体看，供给端步入季节性环比收缩阶段，但供给端支撑 力度提升则需要出现超预期下滑。 成 材：武秋婷 需求方面：国内需求小幅回落但高于去年同期，主因是国内钢厂检修后常规复产增多，但 钢材价格走弱导致钢厂利润水平环比回落，且钢厂盈利水平低于去年同期，终端需求处于季节 性淡季，预计短期铁 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoint - The current coal and coke market has general supply - demand contradictions and low inventory pressure, which support prices to some extent. However, due to the off - season influence, there is a lack of continuous upward driving force, and prices also fluctuate with market sentiment [2] Summary by Related Content Market Performance - Last week, the coal and coke futures prices first declined and then rose, closing slightly higher on a weekly basis. In the spot market, the coke price completed the first round of increase, and the coking coal market price was generally weak and stable [2] - The Indian government declared coking coal as a key strategic mineral last week, and the real - estate sector in the stock market rose, releasing the market's bullish sentiment and providing a good atmosphere for the strengthening of black - series futures [2] Fundamental Situation - As the Chinese New Year approaches, some regional coal mines reduced production due to safety inspections and underground conditions last week. The production of raw coal and clean coal was 1.978 million tons and 0.771 million tons respectively [2] - According to Mysteel's research, coal mines are expected to start taking holidays on February 5th, with holidays ranging from 2 to 62 days and an average of 10.1 days, similar to last year. The planned production cuts and shutdowns of coal mines involve a capacity of about 744 million tons, affecting 1.868 million tons of raw coal production [2] - On the demand side, steel mill production is relatively stable, with the daily average hot metal output maintained at around 2.28 million tons [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The lithium carbonate market is expected to stabilize in a range, with a focus on the tight supply - demand balance [1][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Performance - Last week, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures showed a volatile downward trend, closing at the daily limit of 148,200 yuan/ton. The net short position of the main funds continued, the持仓 structure was divided, market divergence increased, the advantage of long - positions concentrated towards the top, and overall gaming intensified. Registered warehouse receipts increased by 420 tons to 30,211 tons. The SMM average price of electric carbon was 160,500 yuan/ton. Upstream lithium salt producers' willingness to sell single orders continued to weaken, while some downstream material factories had a strong willingness to purchase at relatively low prices, and market inquiries and transactions were active [1] Fundamentals - **Supply**: Last week, the raw material market generally rose. The SMM total weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate was 49.5% (-1.49%), and the operating rates of all processes except for salt lakes decreased. The SMM total output was 21,569 tons (-648 tons), a month - on - month decrease of 2.92% [2] - **Demand**: There was a significant structural differentiation in demand. Last week, the SMM lithium iron phosphate output increased by 1.0% month - on - month with increased inventory accumulation; the ternary output decreased by 1.1% month - on - month with gradually decreasing inventory. The output of power cells decreased slightly last week. As of January 18, the penetration rate of new energy vehicle sales by SMM rose to 55.6%. Energy - storage cells performed strongly, with both production and sales booming and low inventory [2] - **Inventory**: Last week, the SMM four - location sample social inventory decreased by 5.6% (-2,450 tons) month - on - month, the sample weekly inventory decreased by 1.3% (-1,414 tons) month - on - month. The total inventory days increased to 28.5 days, the downstream inventory days increased to 10.8 days, and the inventory days of upstream and other links decreased, showing a significant inventory structure differentiation [2] Macro - policy - **Demand - side**: Multiple incentives such as automobile trade - in subsidies and battery export tax - rebate policies stimulate terminal consumption and improve macro - liquidity [3] - **Supply - side**: On January 15, the National Development and Reform Commission proposed to introduce management measures for the comprehensive utilization of new energy vehicle power batteries, which will improve the recycling threshold and eliminate backward production capacity, optimizing the domestic supply structure in the long - term and raising the cost support center [3] - **Industrial planning**: The Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Plan, the key points of the "15th Five - Year Plan" for energy storage, and a series of deployments in the Central Economic Work Conference form synergistic benefits to support long - term supply - demand balance [3] - **Macro - environment**: The central bank's structural interest rate cut indirectly strengthens the long - term macro - positive atmosphere [3]

成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 晨报 煤焦 煤焦：利多氛围支撑 盘面阶段性反弹 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 原材料：程 鹏 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2026 年 1 月 30 日 逻辑：昨日煤焦期价震荡偏强，连续两日收涨，夜盘高开高走。现货 市场，河北天津地区部分钢厂落实焦价首轮提涨；焦煤市场价格整体弱稳 运行。昨日印度政府宣布将炼焦煤作为关键战略性矿产，印度是全球仅有 的钢铁产业持续增长且对炼焦煤进口依赖度较大的国家，预计未来印度将 继续是全球焦煤需求的关键驱动力。此外近日受"多家房企已不被监管部 门要求每月上报'三条红线'指标"等消息刺 ...