Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - For building materials, it is expected to run in a volatile and consolidating manner, with the price center shifting downward and running weakly [1][3] - For aluminum ingots, it is expected that the price will undergo short - term high - level adjustments, and attention should be paid to macro sentiment and mining end news [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Building Materials - Yunnan and Guizhou regions' short - process construction steel producers' Spring Festival shutdown and maintenance time is mostly in mid - to late January, and the resumption time is expected to be around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, which is expected to affect the total construction steel output by 741,000 tons during the shutdown period. In Anhui Province, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills started shutting down on January 5, and most of the other steel mills will shut down around mid - January, with some expecting to shut down after January 20, affecting the daily output by about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous week and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] - Building materials continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, reaching a new low recently. In the pattern of weak supply and demand and with a pessimistic market sentiment, the price center continued to shift downward. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing little support for prices [3] Aluminum - Yesterday, the aluminum price was in high - level consolidation. After the Fed's expected interest rate cut, the US dollar first declined and then rose. Powell's remarks provided support for the US dollar index [2] - The fundamentals of alumina remain in an oversupply pattern, with high domestic operating capacity, an open import window, and high domestic inventory on the supply side. On the demand side, electrolytic aluminum plants' raw material inventory is high, and spot purchasing is negative [3] - The demand side of aluminum has shown signs of recovery. The overall operating rate of domestic leading aluminum downstream processing enterprises last week increased by 0.4 percentage points to 62.1% week - on - week, and the "Golden September" effect is strengthening [3] - As of September 18, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 638,000 tons, up 1,000 tons from Monday and 13,000 tons from last Thursday. Although the出库 performance has improved in September, the premium and discount are still under pressure, and whether the inventory decline inflection point can occur in late September needs further observation [3] Overall for Metals - The macro interest rate cut expectation has been fulfilled as scheduled. As it is transitioning to the "Golden September and Silver October" period, there is support from both the macro and fundamentals. However, after the macro "boot" has landed, it is expected that the price will have room for a short - term high - level correction, and subsequent attention should be paid to the inventory - consumption trend [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The iron ore price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillating trend. The supply of iron ore is steadily increasing, while the demand is falling from its peak under the backdrop of a significant decline in blast furnace profits. The medium - term supply - demand relationship is shifting from slightly tight to balanced, but the pre - holiday restocking demand will support the price in the short term [3]. - The market has fully priced in the Fed's interest rate cuts, and the focus of market trading is expected to shift to real - world factors [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - The shipment of foreign mines has rebounded month - on - month, reaching a new high this year. Shipments from Australia, Brazil, and non - mainstream regions have all significantly increased. The arrival volume is slightly higher than that of the same period last year. As the high - volume shipments arrive at ports, supply - side pressure is expected to gradually emerge, and the support from the supply side is continuously weakening [3]. Demand - With the end of environmental protection restrictions in North China, domestic demand has returned to previous levels. The daily average pig iron output this period is 240.55 (a month - on - month increase of 11.71). Although the steel mill profitability rate has been continuously declining, it is still at a high level compared to the same period in the past five years. The blast furnace profit has declined from its high and is approaching the break - even level, while the short - process steelmaking is in a state of full - scale loss. Near the National Day holiday, steel mills have a concentrated restocking demand, and the inventory level is low, so the short - term restocking demand may support the iron ore price [3]. Inventory - The daily consumption at the steel mill end has increased with the resumption of production in multiple regions, and the inventory level has slightly increased but is lower than that of last year. In the middle and late ten - day period, as the pre - holiday restocking phase begins, the steel mill inventory will seasonally increase. Attention should be paid to whether the restocking intensity during the National Day holiday exceeds expectations. The port inventory has continued to increase slightly this period. With the lifting of environmental protection restrictions, the port clearance volume has significantly increased, and the pre - holiday restocking in China will drive the inventory level down [3]. Price - The price is expected to oscillate within a range. The reference range is 790 - 820 yuan/ton, corresponding to 105 - 108 US dollars/ton in the overseas market [4]. Strategy - The recommended strategy is range - bound trading and using covered call options [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings mentioned in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of finished products is expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, with the price center moving downward and weak operation [1][3] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to remain high in the short - term, with macro and fundamental factors resonating [1][4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs For Finished Products - Yungui region's short - process construction steel enterprises' Spring Festival shutdown will affect 741,000 tons of construction steel production; Anhui's 6 short - process steel mills' shutdown will affect about 16,200 tons of daily output [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities decreased by 40.3% month - on - month and increased by 43.2% year - on - year [3] - Finished products continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, market sentiment is pessimistic, and winter storage is sluggish this year [3] For Aluminum - Macroscopically, the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut is rising, and the dollar is under selling pressure. The market expects a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut on Wednesday [2] - Domestically, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remains high, the industry's start - up rate increased slightly month - on - month, and the aluminum water ratio is expected to rise slightly [3] - The spot price of alumina runs narrowly, the immediate cost of electrolytic aluminum changes little, and the weekly cost decreases. The demand shows signs of recovery, and the overall start - up rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.4 percentage points to 62.1% last week [3] - On September 15, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas increased by 1.2 tons compared with last Thursday and 0.6 tons compared with last Monday. Whether the de - stocking inflection point can appear in mid - September needs further observation [3]

Report Investment Rating - No information provided Core View - The resumption of production at both the supply and demand ends of coking coal and coke is progressing rapidly, especially the rapid rebound of molten iron, which supports the rigid demand for raw materials. However, attention should be paid to the implementation of recent environmental protection and production restriction measures by steel mills. The market is expected to fluctuate [2][3]. Summary by Directory Market Situation - Overseas interest rate cut expectations are strong, and there is a strong atmosphere of "anti - involution" in China. The prices of coking coal and coke futures showed a strong trend yesterday. After the market, there was news of an environmental protection and production restriction plan in Tangshan, causing the night session to open high and close low. Tangshan's steel and coking enterprises have started environmental protection and production restrictions. Steel mills have shut down 40% of their blast furnaces, and coking enterprises have extended the coking time by 30%. The current overall operating rate of coking plants in the Tangshan market is around 75%. Steel mills have received the production restriction notice, but the specific implementation plan is still to be discussed [2]. Coal Mine End - After some coal mines reduced prices, sales improved. The market still expects inventory replenishment before the National Day. Last week, coal production gradually recovered. The daily average clean coal output of 523 coal mines was 728,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 35,000 tons. Due to the impact of production cuts and improved sales after price cuts, the mine - end inventory decreased [3]. Demand Side - The resumption of production at steel mills is fast. Last week, the daily average molten iron output unexpectedly rebounded to 2.4055 million tons, an increase of 117,100 tons from the previous week, returning to the level before production restrictions. Currently, the profitability rate of steel mills is 60.17%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.87 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 54.11 percentage points. Finished products are in a continuous inventory accumulation process, and the profits of steel mills have narrowed, which may limit the upward space of molten iron production, and the demand for raw materials will face a test in the later stage [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - The performance of finished products is expected to be weak with a downward - shifting center of gravity, showing an oscillatory and consolidating trend [1][2] - Aluminum ingot prices are expected to be supported by macro - expectations, with short - term price strength. Attention should be paid to inventory consumption during the peak season [1][2][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Finished Products - Yunnan - Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises' Spring Festival shutdown will affect a total of 741,000 tons of construction steel output; Anhui short - process steel mills' shutdown will affect a daily output of about 16,200 tons [1][2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities decreased by 40.3% month - on - month and increased by 43.2% year - on - year [2] - Finished products prices continued to decline, and the market was pessimistic under the pattern of weak supply and demand. Winter storage was sluggish this year, providing little price support [2] Aluminum Ingot - Aluminum prices were strong yesterday. Investors are waiting for the Fed to resume interest rate cuts, and Trump called for faster monetary policy easing. China's industrial growth in August supported aluminum demand [1] - Domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity remained high, with a slight increase in the industry's operating rate. The proportion of molten aluminum is expected to rise slightly [2] - Alumina prices fluctuated narrowly, and the immediate cost of electrolytic aluminum changed little. Although the weekly cost decreased, the demand improved, and the overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing enterprises rose by 0.4 percentage points to 62.1% [2] - On September 15, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas increased. The inflection point of inventory reduction in September needs further observation [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The coal and coke futures prices fluctuated strongly overall yesterday and continued to rise at night due to the strong overseas interest - rate cut expectation and the strong domestic "anti - involution" atmosphere. The spot - end has completed 2 rounds of coke price cuts. The supply and demand sides of coal and coke are in a fast resumption process, especially the rapid recovery of hot metal, which supports the rigid demand for raw materials. Coupled with the positive macro signals boosting market sentiment, the market is expected to run with an upward bias [2][3][4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Market Logic - Overseas interest - rate cut expectation is strong, and the domestic "anti - involution" atmosphere is thick. The coal and coke futures prices fluctuated strongly yesterday and continued to rise at night. The mainstream steel mills adjusted the coke purchase price, and the coke price has completed 2 rounds of cuts [3] Coal Mine Situation - The coking coal market remains weak, with transaction prices mainly falling and low downstream purchasing enthusiasm. However, some coal mines have better sales after price cuts, and the market still expects pre - National Day restocking. Last week, coal production gradually recovered, with the daily average clean coal output of 523 coal mines reaching 72.8 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.5 tons. Due to production cuts and better sales after price cuts, the mine - end inventory decreased [4] Demand Situation - Steel mills are resuming production rapidly, with the daily average hot metal output last Sunday exceeding expectations and rising to 240.55 tons, an increase of 11.71 tons from the previous week, returning to the pre - restriction level. Currently, the steel mill profitability rate is 60.17%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.87 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 54.11 percentage points. The finished products are in a continuous inventory accumulation process, and the steel mill profits have narrowed, which may limit the upward space of hot metal and test the raw material demand in the later stage [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Overall Viewpoint**: The report analyzes the black - chain industry, including various products such as steel products, iron ore, coal - coke, and ferroalloys. It points out that different products have different market trends, with overall market conditions affected by factors like supply - demand relationships, production capacity utilization, and macro - policies [9][10][13]. - **Specific Product Viewpoints**: - **Steel Products**: The steel market shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with steel prices expected to oscillate at a low level. The overall trend is weak [9]. - **Iron Ore**: In the short term, iron ore prices are expected to oscillate at a high level, supported by pre - holiday restocking. The price of the main contract (2601 contract) is expected to range between 790 - 820 yuan/ton, corresponding to an external market FE10 price of about 105 - 108 US dollars/ton [10]. - **Coal - Coke**: In the short term, the rapid resumption of production at both the supply and demand ends of coal - coke, especially the rapid increase in hot metal production, supports the rigid demand for raw materials. Pre - holiday restocking by downstream industries is expected to boost market sentiment [12]. - **Ferroalloys**: The market has entered the traditional peak season, but the short - term demand is still not up to expectations. The market sentiment is cautious. Ferroalloys maintain a situation of strong supply and weak demand, with inventory pressure increasing, and prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Market Review - **Futures and Spot Prices**: From September 5th to September 12th, 2025, the prices of various products showed different trends. For example, the price of the RB2601 contract of rebar decreased by 16 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.51%, and the spot price of HRB400E: Φ20 in Shanghai decreased by 20 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.62%. The price of the HC2601 contract of hot - rolled coil increased by 24 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.72%, and the spot price in Shanghai increased by 20 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.59% [7]. 3.2 This Week's Black Market Forecast - **Steel Products**: The supply is strong and the demand is weak. Last week, the scale of steel mill maintenance decreased significantly, and the scale of resumption of production increased. The daily average hot metal output increased, but the downstream demand was weak, dragging down steel prices. The overall trend is weak [9]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply is expected to increase steadily. Although the demand has increased in the short term due to pre - holiday restocking, in the medium term, the supply - demand relationship is changing from tight to balanced. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level [10]. - **Coal - Coke**: The futures prices oscillated last week, with a slight weekly decline. The coking coal market is generally weak, but there are expectations for pre - National Day restocking. The rapid increase in hot metal production supports the demand for raw materials, and pre - holiday restocking is expected to boost market sentiment [12]. - **Ferroalloys**: The demand is not up to expectations for the time being. The supply is relatively high, and the inventory is increasing. The prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [13]. 3.3 Product Data 3.3.1 Steel Products - **Rebar**: Last week, the output was 211.93 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.75 tons; the apparent demand was 198.07 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.00 tons. The total inventory was 653.86 tons, a week - on - week increase of 13.86 tons [15][23]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Last week, the output was 325.14 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10.90 tons; the apparent demand was 326.16 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20.80 tons. The total inventory was 373.32 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.02 tons [29][33]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - **Port Inventory**: This week, the total import ore port inventory was 13849.47 tons, a week - on - week increase of 24.15 tons; the port Australian ore inventory was 5806.51 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 69.51 tons; the port Brazilian ore inventory was 5228.22 tons, a week - on - week increase of 109.26 tons [44]. - **Steel Mill Inventory and Consumption**: This week, the inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 8993.05 tons, a week - on - week increase of 53.18 tons; the daily consumption was 296.65 tons/day, a week - on - week increase of 15.98 tons [54]. 3.3.3 Coal - Coke - **Coke Inventory**: Last week, the total coke inventory (coke enterprises + steel mills + ports) was 906.21 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10.95 tons [84]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: Last week, the total coking coal inventory (coke enterprises + steel mills + coal mines + ports + coal washing plants) was 2483.41 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 62.28 tons [98]. 3.3.4 Ferroalloys - **Spot Prices**: Last week, the price of semi - carbonated manganese ore in Tianjin Port was 33.8 yuan/dry ton degree, a week - on - week increase of 0.3 yuan; the spot price of ferromanganese in Inner Mongolia was 5650 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 30 yuan; the spot price of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia was 5280 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 30 yuan [121]. - **Production and Demand**: Last week, the output of 187 independent ferromanganese enterprises was 214130 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1295 tons; the demand for ferromanganese in five major steel products decreased by 1.09% week - on - week [129][133].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Aluminum: With macro - level interest rate cut expectations and support from the peak season, aluminum prices are expected to be mainly strong in the near term, with strengthened downside support. Attention should be paid to the Fed meeting this week [9]. - Zinc: In the short term, focus on macro - sentiment. With interest rate cut expectations and the "Golden September and Silver October" season, zinc prices are expected to fluctuate. However, medium - to long - term supply increases will put pressure on the upside [11]. - Tin: In the short term, the tin market shows a situation of weak supply and demand [13]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 01. Colorful Weekly Market Review - Copper: The closing price of the futures main contract on September 12, 2025, was 81,060, up 920 (1.15%) from September 5. The average price of copper in Shanghai Wumaomarket was 80,990, up 1,025 (1.28%) [7]. - Aluminum: The closing price of the futures main contract on September 12, 2025, was 21,120, up 425 (2.05%) from September 5. The average price of A00 aluminum in the non - ferrous market was 21,050, up 370 (1.79%) [7]. - Zinc: The closing price of the futures main contract on September 12, 2025, was 22,305, up 150 (0.68%) from September 5. The price of zinc ingots was 22,236, up 430 (1.97%) [7]. - Tin: The closing price of the futures main contract on September 12, 2025, was 273,950, up 1,490 (0.55%) from September 5. The average price of tin in Shanghai Wumaomarket was 273,250, up 1,000 (0.37%) [7]. - Nickel: The closing price of the futures main contract on September 12, 2025, was 121,980, up 670 (0.55%) from September 5. The average price of 1 nickel was 123,430, up 1,390 (1.14%) [7]. 02. This Week's Colorful Market Forecast - **Aluminum** - Logic: Last week, aluminum prices were strong. Macroeconomic factors such as a surge in US initial jobless claims and moderate inflation increase may lead the Fed to restart interest rate cuts. Fundamentally, domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity remains high, the industry's start - up rate increased slightly, the aluminum - water ratio is expected to rise slightly, the cost is stable, and downstream demand is recovering. As of September 15, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 637,000 tons, and the de - stocking inflection point needs further observation [9]. - View: Expected to be mainly strong in the near term [9]. - **Zinc** - Logic: Last week, zinc prices fluctuated. The SMM Zn50 weekly TC average price decreased, and domestic zinc mine production profits were compressed. Smelters have strong production enthusiasm due to high profits. The galvanizing start - up rate increased, and zinc ingot inventories increased. The domestic consumption lacks obvious "peak season" characteristics [10]. - View: Expected to fluctuate in the short term, with medium - to long - term supply pressure [11]. - **Tin** - Logic: In July, China's tin ore imports decreased year - on - year and month - on - month. Myanmar's tin production progress is slow. Supply shortages in Yunnan and Jiangxi have led to a decline in smelter start - up rates. Downstream demand is average, showing a situation of weak supply and demand [13]. - View: Short - term weak supply and demand [13]. 03. Variety Data Aluminum - **Bauxite** - Price: The price of domestic high - grade bauxite in Henan was 650 yuan/ton in the week of September 12, up 10 week - on - week and 15 year - on - year; the price of domestic low - grade bauxite in Henan was 580 yuan/ton, up 10 week - on - week and 30 year - on - year; the average price of imported bauxite index was 75.48 US dollars/ton, down 0.05 week - on - week and 1.13 year - on - year [17]. - Arrival and departure volume: The arrival volume at ports in the week of September 12 was 4254,500 tons, up 858,700 week - on - week and 1,310,700 year - on - year; the departure volume was 4673,100 tons, up 1,038,000 week - on - week and 1,462,300 year - on - year [20]. - **Alumina** - Price and cost - profit: The domestic price in Henan was 3,060 yuan/ton in the week of September 12, down 80 week - on - week and 905 year - on - year; the full cost was 2,902 yuan/ton, up 0.8 week - on - week and 41.3 year - on - year; the profit in Shanxi was 43.39 yuan/ton, down 89.49 week - on - week and 1,026.97 year - on - year [23]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum** - Cost and price difference: The total cost was 16,427.69 yuan/ton in the week of September 12, down 143.57 week - on - week and 1,139.54 year - on - year; the regional price difference between Foshan and SMM A00 aluminum was - 60 yuan/ton, up 10 week - on - week and 30 year - on - year [25]. - Start - up rate: The start - up rates of aluminum cable, aluminum foil, aluminum plate and strip, aluminum profile, primary aluminum alloy, and recycled aluminum alloy showed different changes in the week of September 11 [29][30]. - Inventory: The bonded area inventory in Shanghai was 69,500 tons in the week of September 11, down 5,600 week - on - week and up 33,200 year - on - year; the total bonded area inventory was 92,500 tons, down 3,600 week - on - week and up 46,000 year - on - year; the social inventory was 637,000 tons in the week of September 15, up 6,000 week - on - week and down 111,000 year - on - year; the weekly outbound volume of aluminum ingots in major consumption areas was 107,600 tons, down 13,800 week - on - week and up 3,900 year - on - year; the SHFE inventory was 128,499 tons in the week of September 12, up 4,421 week - on - week and down 150,672 year - on - year; the LME inventory was 485,275 tons in the week of September 11, up 600 week - on - week and down 339,075 year - on - year [35][36]. - Basis: The basis of SMM A00 aluminum in different periods and regions showed different changes in the week of September 12 [41][44]. - Monthly spread: The monthly spread of Shanghai Aluminum in different periods showed different changes in the week of September 12 [45]. Zinc - **Zinc Concentrate** - Price and processing fee: The price of domestic zinc concentrate was 16,878 yuan/metal ton in the week of September 12, up 72 week - on - week and down 3,784 year - on - year; the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee was 3,850 yuan/metal ton, down 50 week - on - week and up 2,400 year - on - year; the import zinc concentrate processing fee was 98.75 US dollars/dry ton, up 2.5 week - on - week [52]. - Production profit, import profit and loss, and inventory: The enterprise production profit was 3,878 yuan/metal ton in the week of September 12, up 218 week - on - week and down 3,376 year - on - year; the import profit and loss was - 2,149.17 yuan/ton, down 560.21 week - on - week and down 2,627.64 year - on - year; the import zinc concentrate inventory in Lianyungang was 160,000 physical tons, up 30,000 week - on - week and up 130,000 year - on - year [55]. - **Refined Zinc** - Inventory: The zinc ingot social inventory in SMM's seven regions was 160,600 tons in the week of September 15, up 8,500 week - on - week and up 46,100 year - on - year; the zinc ingot bonded area inventory was 8,000 tons in the week of September 11, unchanged week - on - week and up 2,500 year - on - year; the SHFE refined zinc inventory was 94,649 tons in the week of September 12, up 7,617 week - on - week and up 9,037 year - on - year; the LME zinc inventory was 50,525 tons in the week of September 11, down 3,525 week - on - week and down 181,900 year - on - year [58]. - **Galvanizing** - Production, start - up rate, and inventory: The production in the week of September 11 was 332,345 tons, up 43,245 week - on - week and down 10,010 year - on - year; the start - up rate was 56.06%, up 5.98 week - on - week and down 1.68 year - on - year; the raw material inventory was 13,860 tons, up 1,190 week - on - week and up 1,270 year - on - year; the finished product inventory was 375,700 tons, down 21,200 week - on - week and down 56,500 year - on - year [61]. - **Zinc Basis and Monthly Spread** - Basis: The basis of SMM 0 zinc ingot in different periods showed different changes in the week of September 12 [64]. - Monthly spread: The monthly spread of Shanghai Zinc in different periods showed different changes in the week of September 12 [68]. Tin - **Refined Tin** - Production and start - up rate: The combined production of Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces was 0.138 million tons in the week of September 12, down 0.1 week - on - week and down 0.0375 year - on - year; the combined start - up rate was 28.48%, down 20.63 week - on - week and down 7.74 year - on - year [73]. - **Tin Ingot** - Inventory: The SHFE tin ingot total inventory was 7,897 tons in the week of September 12, up 124 week - on - week and down 1,602 year - on - year; the Chinese regional tin ingot social inventory was 9,389 tons, up 108 week - on - week and down 1,419 year - on - year [76]. - **Tin Concentrate** - Processing fee: The processing fees of tin concentrate in different regions and grades were flat week - on - week and down year - on - year in the week of September 12 [78]. - Import profit and loss: The import profit and loss level of tin ore was 8,842.8 yuan/ton in the week of September 11, down 14,028.26 week - on - week and down 7,146.94 year - on - year [79]. - **Spot** - Average price: The average prices of 40% and 60% tin concentrates in different regions increased week - on - week and year - on - year in the week of September 12 [84].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market has fully priced in the Fed's interest rate cut. It is expected that the market trading focus will shift to real - world factors. With the arrival of the peak season for domestic terminals, the market will trade more based on the fundamental changes of the black - series commodities. In the short term, iron ore supply is steadily increasing, and demand is falling from a high level under the backdrop of a significant decline in blast furnace profits. The medium - term supply - demand relationship is changing from tight - balance to balance, but the pre - holiday restocking demand will still support prices. It is expected that iron ore prices will mainly maintain a high - level oscillating trend [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - External ore shipments have significantly declined, mainly due to a sharp drop in Vale's shipments and non - mainstream shipments, while Australian shipments are relatively stable. The arrival volume is slightly lower than the same period last year. As the previous high - volume shipments continue to arrive at ports, the pressure on the supply side is expected to gradually emerge, and overall, the support from the supply side is continuously weakening [2] Demand - With the end of environmental protection restrictions in North China, domestic demand has recovered to the previous level. The daily average pig iron output this period is 240.55 (a month - on - month increase of 11.71). Although the steel mill profitability rate has been continuously declining, it is still at a high level compared to the same period in the past five years (only lower than 2021). After the high - level blast furnace profits have declined, they are approaching the break - even level, and the short - process steelmaking is in a state of full - scale losses. Near the National Day holiday, steel mills have a concentrated restocking demand, and their inventory levels are low. The short - term restocking demand may support iron ore prices [3] Inventory - The daily consumption at the steel mill end has increased simultaneously with the resumption of production in multiple regions. The inventory level has increased slightly but is lower than the same period last year. In the middle and late part of the month, as the pre - holiday restocking period begins, the steel mill inventory will seasonally increase. Later, attention should be paid to whether the National Day restocking intensity exceeds expectations. This period, the port inventory has continued a slight increasing trend. With the lifting of environmental protection restrictions, the out - port volume has significantly increased. At the same time, the pre - holiday restocking in China will drive the inventory level down [3] Price - Iron ore prices are oscillating within a certain range [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply and demand of coking coal and coke are recovering rapidly, especially the rapid rebound of hot metal, which supports the rigid demand for raw materials. Attention should be paid to the pre - holiday replenishment actions of downstream enterprises [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Market Performance - Last week, the coking coal and coke futures prices fluctuated overall and closed slightly lower on a weekly basis. On the spot side, the transaction of high - priced resources at some coal mines was weak, and the prices remained stable with a slight decline. Last Friday, steel mills started the second round of price cuts for coke, planning to implement it this week [3] Supply Side - The coking coal market remained weak, with transaction prices mainly falling. The enthusiasm of downstream buyers remained weak. However, after some coal mines cut prices, sales improved. The market still expected pre - National Day replenishment. Last week, coal production gradually recovered, with the daily average clean coal output of 523 coal mines reaching 728,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 35,000 tons. Affected by production cuts and improved sales after price cuts at some coal mines, mine - end inventories decreased [3] Demand Side - The resumption of production in steel mills was relatively fast. Last week, the daily average hot metal output unexpectedly rebounded to 2.4055 million tons, an increase of 117,100 tons from the previous week, returning to the level before the production limit. Currently, the profitability rate of steel mills is 60.17%, a decrease of 0.87 percentage points from last week and an increase of 54.11 percentage points compared with last year. Finished products are in a continuous inventory accumulation process, and the profits of steel mills have narrowed, which may limit the rebound space of hot metal. In the later stage, the demand for raw materials will face a test [4]