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煤焦:供需均下滑价格震荡运行
Hua Bao Qi Huo· 2025-11-10 03:24
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term domestic coal mine production has not recovered, supporting the market's confidence in price support; demand is in a slow decline trend, and attention should be paid to the transmission of pressure to the raw material end. The coking coal price should focus on the pressure at the 1320 yuan/ton level [3] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs Market Performance - Last week, the coking coal and coke futures prices fluctuated, generally performing stronger than steel and ore. The spot market was generally stable with a slight upward trend, domestic coal prices rose again, the third round of coke price increases was gradually implemented, and some coke enterprises in certain regions started the fourth round of price increases [3] Supply Side - Last week, coal mines in Shanxi further reduced production, with the most obvious reduction in the Lvliang area. State - owned large mines in the Liulin area began to control production independently, and the output decreased significantly. The daily average output of clean coal dropped to 73.8 tons, a decrease of 2000 tons from the previous week and 4600 tons year - on - year. The output decline stimulated the market's increasing bullish sentiment [3] Demand Side - The profit of steel mills continued to shrink, and the profitability rate dropped below 40%. The daily average hot metal output dropped to 2342200 tons, a decrease of 2140 tons from the previous week. The current profitability level will not lead to large - scale production cuts by steel mills for the time being, and attention should be paid to the change in profitability and steel mills' production cut actions in the future [3]
华宝期货晨报铝锭-20251107
Hua Bao Qi Huo· 2025-11-07 03:15
1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Report's Core View - The finished products are expected to move in a sideways consolidation manner, with a continued downward trend in price, and the price center of gravity continues to shift downward due to the weak supply - demand pattern and pessimistic market sentiment. The winter storage this year is sluggish, providing weak support for prices [1][2]. - The price of aluminum is expected to be strong in the short - term, showing a high - level shock. Attention should be paid to the macro - sentiment, mine - end news, inventory - consumption trends, and high - level pressure [1][2][3]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Finished Products - Yunnan - Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises will have a shutdown and maintenance period during the Spring Festival, with an estimated impact on the total construction steel output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills has stopped production on January 5, and most of the others will stop around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [1][2]. - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2]. - The finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, reaching a new low. The market sentiment is pessimistic, and the winter storage is sluggish, with weak price support [2]. 3.2 Aluminum - Macroscopically, US data shows a weak labor market, increasing the expectation of the Fed to cut interest rates again this year. The market is concerned about the impact of Trump's trade policy and the risks related to the long - term government shutdown [1]. - The alumina market has a continuous supply - demand relaxation pattern, with spot prices under pressure. Industry profitability has shrunk, and some high - cost enterprises face operational pressure. Environmental policies may restrict production during the heating season and carbon emission verification [2]. - Downstream electrolytic aluminum enterprises have weak procurement willingness, mainly for rigid - demand replenishment. Raw material inventory has accumulated to 3.202 million tons, and the total industry inventory has increased by 92,000 tons to a historical high of 4.599 million tons [2]. - The weekly starting rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises is 61.6%, a 0.6 - percentage - point decrease from last week. The starting rates of aluminum cables, profiles, strips, and foils have all declined [2]. - On November 6, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 622,000 tons. In November, the pressure of weak inventory accumulation increases, which may have a negative impact on aluminum prices [2].
成材:周度基本面变化不大,钢价震荡运行-20251107
Hua Bao Qi Huo· 2025-11-07 03:15
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel price of finished products fluctuated and rebounded slightly, with macro - positive factors ending and the price returning to its fundamentals. The real - estate market remained sluggish, and the industry fundamentals changed little, so the steel price was still under pressure. The raw material price was expected to run in a callback mode [1] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Finished Products - Supply: The supply of five major steel products was 856,740 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 18,550 tons or 2.1% [1] - Inventory: The total inventory was 1,503,570 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10,190 tons or 0.67% [1] - Consumption: The weekly consumption was 866,930 tons, a decrease of 5.4%. Among them, the building material consumption decreased by 7.2% week - on - week, and the plate consumption decreased by 0.2% week - on - week [1] - Furnace Operation: In the Fenwei region, 13 steel production enterprises had 23 actually - operating blast furnaces, 1 less than before, with an operating rate of 67.65%. The actual iron production of blast furnaces was 70,250 tons, 1,150 tons less than last week, and the capacity utilization rate was 72.31% [1] Raw Materials - The view was that the price would run in a callback mode [1]
2025年11月有色金属分析报告:逐步过渡传统淡季,关注内外价差波动
Hua Bao Qi Huo· 2025-11-06 08:59
1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the Fed's "rate cut + halt to balance - sheet reduction" signals a major shift in post - pandemic monetary policy. A December rate cut is likely, but future policies will be more flexible and uncertain. Domestically, China's economy in the first three quarters was in line with expectations, with strong resilience. Despite challenges like weak consumption and investment, policies will support the economy to achieve the annual growth target [4][56][57]. - For aluminum, the Fed's expected December rate cut and domestic fiscal support are macro factors. Fundamentally, the Guinea rainy - season impact on ore shipments may support alumina prices, but the alumina supply remains loose. Demand is transitioning to the off - season, and inventory accumulation pressure is increasing. The monthly price has a support level around 20,500 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 21,500 - 21,800 yuan/ton [4][105]. - For zinc, the external - strong and internal - weak pattern will continue. In November, zinc prices are expected to fluctuate in the range of 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton. Supply may decline, and the domestic refined zinc surplus may ease. Demand is entering the off - season, with the real estate sector weak and the auto and home - appliance sectors providing support [8][9]. - For tin, the supply at the mine end remains tight, and the recovery of production in Myanmar is slow. The semiconductor and auto industries support tin demand. The supply - demand situation is weak on both sides, and tin prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [9][10]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro: The Fed Cuts Rates as Expected, and Domestic Demand Still Faces Pressure Market Operation Logic - **US**: In October, the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points and ended balance - sheet reduction. Manufacturing was in a slump, service industry growth slowed, the labor market cooled, and the CPI fell more than expected. Future policies are expected to be more flexible and uncertain, and a December rate cut is likely [19][20][24]. - **Eurozone**: In October, the economy showed "enhanced stage expansion and intensified structural differentiation." The service industry PMI reached a 1 - and - a - half - year high, inflation fell slightly, but the manufacturing recession continued. The labor market was stable, and inflation showed "overall cooling and core stability" [26][28][29]. - **China**: In the first three quarters, the economy grew steadily. Investment declined, consumption slowed, and exports showed strong resilience. The price index showed some repair, and the PMI indicated overall stable production and operation but a weak manufacturing demand [34][44][50]. Market Trend Judgment - Overseas, the Fed's policy shift is significant, and future policies are uncertain. The eurozone economy depends on the service industry in the short - term and needs to solve multiple challenges in the long - term. - Domestically, the economy in the first three quarters was in line with expectations. In the fourth quarter, Sino - US relations are easing, and fiscal policies will support the economy to achieve the annual target [56][57][58]. Later Concerns/Risk Factors Overseas economic trends, monetary policy changes, US tariff policy evolution, domestic incremental policies, and terminal demand [60]. 3.2 Aluminum: Off - season Downstream Start - up Cools, but High - level Support Remains Market Operation Logic - **Cost Side**: In October, domestic bauxite prices rose slightly, and overseas prices fell. The supply of domestic bauxite was tight, and the impact of the Guinea rainy season on imports was still being felt. In 2025, the supply of imported bauxite may increase, but the spot resources may still be tight. In October, the output of alumina increased, but the profit was compressed. In November, the market is expected to remain in surplus, and prices will be under pressure. In October, the cost of electrolytic aluminum decreased, and it is expected to continue to decline slightly in November [64][72][77]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: In October, production increased, and the aluminum - water ratio rose. In November, winter environmental protection restrictions may affect production, and the aluminum - water ratio is expected to decline. Import losses are large, and the net import volume may exceed last year [80][82]. - **Scrap Aluminum**: In October, the refined - scrap price difference widened, and the PMI of the recycled aluminum industry declined but remained above the boom - bust line. In November, demand is expected to be boosted, and the industry PMI may continue to expand. The substitution of recycled aluminum for primary aluminum is gradually emerging [86]. - **Demand Side**: In October, the aluminum processing PMI fell below the boom - bust line. Different sectors have different performances. Demand is transitioning to the off - season. The real estate market is still weak, but the auto market is growing well. In November, the State Grid's order bidding may accelerate, but terminal demand needs to be released [88][91][98]. - **Supply - Demand Balance and Inventory**: Near the end of October, the supply increased, and demand was weak. In November, the inventory may change from de - stocking to stocking, which will have a negative impact on prices [100]. Market Trend Judgment The Fed is likely to cut rates in December, and domestic fiscal policies will support the economy. Fundamentally, the Guinea rainy - season impact may support alumina prices, but the supply is still loose. Demand is in the off - season, and inventory accumulation pressure is increasing. The monthly price has a support level around 20,500 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 21,500 - 21,800 yuan/ton [105]. Later Concerns/Risk Factors Macro - policy games, overseas events, ore - end resumption and shipment, inventory trends, and actual terminal demand [107]. 3.3 Zinc: The External - strong and Internal - weak Pattern Continues, Pay Attention to the Upper Pressure Market Operation Logic - **Market Trend in October**: Zinc prices fluctuated higher after a correction. Overseas prices were stronger than domestic ones. The market was boosted by overseas rate cuts and low LME inventories in the short - term, but faced long - term surplus pressure [110]. - **Zinc Concentrate**: Domestic zinc concentrate production is expected to decline in the fourth quarter. Overseas production increased significantly in the first half of 2025 and is expected to continue to increase in the second half. In October, processing fees declined, and import losses increased. Port inventories are at a high level in recent years, and the raw - material inventory days of smelters have decreased [113][115][122]. - **Refined Zinc**: In October, production increased but was lower than expected. In November, production is expected to decline due to factors such as raw - material shortages and profit compression. Zinc ingot imports are at a low level, and the domestic inventory increase pressure may ease. Overseas LME inventories are at a low level, supporting prices [124][127][130]. - **Zinc Consumption**: The traditional consumption season was under - performing. Galvanized sheet exports may decline in October. The real estate market is still weak, and the impact on zinc demand is limited. The auto market is growing well but may cool slightly in the fourth quarter [132][137][139]. Market Trend Judgment The external - strong and internal - weak pattern will continue. In November, zinc prices are expected to fluctuate in the range of 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton [9]. Later Concerns/Risk Factors No relevant content provided. 3.4 Tin: The Probability of Overseas Supply Increase Rises, and the Price Center of Gravity Faces Downward Risk Market Operation Logic - **Mine End**: The supply at the mine end is still tight, and the resumption of production in Myanmar is slow. The arrival volume from Congo (Kinshasa) and Australia will increase in October. - **Smelting**: After the September shutdown and maintenance, refined tin production increased in October, but raw - material shortages in some provinces led to low processing fees. - **Downstream Demand**: The semiconductor industry supports tin demand, and the auto market has grown rapidly but may slow down at the end of the year. Market Trend Judgment The supply - demand situation is weak on both sides, and tin prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [9][10]. Later Concerns/Risk Factors No relevant content provided.
2025年11月份黑色金属分析报告:淡季需求承压,黑金驱动不足
Hua Bao Qi Huo· 2025-11-06 08:58
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the Fed's "rate cut + halt to balance sheet reduction" signals a major shift in post - pandemic monetary policy. A December rate cut is likely, but future policies will be more flexible and uncertain due to internal US disputes, data gaps from government shutdowns, and inflation stickiness [1][54] - The eurozone economy shows "strengthened stage expansion and intensified structural differentiation." Short - term resilience depends on the service sector, while long - term growth faces challenges such as manufacturing drag, external tariff impacts, and insufficient policy coordination [2][54] - Domestically, the economy in the first three quarters met expectations, showing strong resilience and vitality. Despite pressure on consumption and investment, policies ensure stable growth. Sino - US relations are easing, and fiscal stimulus in Q4 will support the economy [2][55] - The real estate market is neutral to bearish as front - end indicators are declining, and it lacks conditions for a quick recovery [6][84] - Steel exports exceeded 10 million tons in September, with plate leading the growth. Exports are expected to remain above 9 million tons per month in Q4 [7][84] - Steel inventories are higher than usual after the National Day, and if the current destocking rate continues, there will be inventory pressure in November and December, weighing on steel prices [7] - Annual crude steel production may be around 950 million tons, a reduction of 50 million tons, with a decline in rebar production and an increase in hot - rolled coil production [7] - The auto market has grown rapidly this year, especially the new - energy vehicle sector, but high - base growth will be difficult in the second half of the year [7] - The home appliance market benefited from policies in the peak season but faces a decline in year - end production scheduling and uncertain exports in Q4, with only a slight annual increase [7] - In November, steel prices are under pressure, with limited room for a sharp decline, and are likely to move lower and then consolidate at a low level [7][85] - In October, the iron ore market had a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern, with macro factors driving prices up. In November, trading will return to the real - world situation as macro drivers weaken [12][114] - Iron ore supply pressure may ease in November. Demand will continue to decline, and inventory accumulation may slow down or slightly decline. Prices are expected to trade in a range [12][115] - In October, the coking coal and coke market rebounded. In November, as supply increases steadily, demand faces seasonal decline, and inventory may accumulate, the market's fundamental support may weaken [15][16] Group 3: Summary by Directory Part 1: Macro - Fed Cuts Rates as Expected, Domestic Demand Remains Under Pressure - **Market Operation Logic** - **US**: In October, the US economy was under pressure with manufacturing and services "double - pressured." The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points and ended balance sheet reduction. Manufacturing was in long - term contraction, services growth slowed sharply, the labor market cooled, and inflation fell more than expected [21][25] - **Eurozone**: In October, the eurozone economy showed "strengthened stage expansion and intensified structural differentiation." Services drove economic expansion, while manufacturing recovery was weak. The labor market was stable, and inflation was cooling overall [27][29] - **Domestic**: In Q3, China's GDP grew steadily, with the service sector driving growth. Investment declined, consumption slowed, and exports showed resilience. Price indices showed some recovery, and the PMI indicated stable production [32][50] - **Market Trend Judgment** - Overseas, the Fed's policy shift and future uncertainties will impact the global financial market. The eurozone's economic future depends on key variables. Domestically, Sino - US relations are easing, and fiscal stimulus in Q4 will support the economy [54][55] - **Later Concerns/Risk Factors** - Overseas economic trends, monetary policy changes, US tariff policy evolution, domestic incremental policies, and terminal demand [57] Part 2: Finished Products - Demand Suppresses Prices, Steel Prices Weakly Operate - **Market Operation Logic** - **Real Estate**: The real estate market is neutral to bearish for building materials as investment, sales, and other indicators are declining, and the market is slow to recover [59][60] - **Exports**: In September, steel exports exceeded 10 million tons again, with high - value - added plates leading. Exports are diversifying, and Q4 exports are expected to remain above 9 million tons per month [64] - **Inventory**: Steel inventories are accumulating, which will pressure prices in November and December if the current destocking rate continues [66] - **Crude Steel Production**: Crude steel production is decreasing, and annual production may be around 950 million tons, with rebar production falling and hot - rolled coil production rising [7][70] - **Automobile Market**: The automobile market is growing rapidly, especially the new - energy vehicle sector. However, high - base growth will be difficult in the second half of the year [71][74] - **Home Appliance Market**: Home appliance production scheduling is declining in November. Exports are showing differentiation, and the market may slow down in Q4 with a slight annual increase [75][82] - **Market Trend Judgment** - Steel prices in November are under pressure, with limited room for a sharp decline, and are likely to move lower and then consolidate at a low level [85] - **Later Concerns/Risk Factors** - Changes in US trade policy and the introduction of unexpected domestic macro - stimulus policies [87] Part 3: Iron Ore - Macro Enters a Vacuum Period, Market Returns to Reality - **Market Operation Logic** - **Market Review**: In October, the iron ore market had a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern, with macro factors driving prices up. The industry reality was weak, but macro expectations were positive [12][89] - **Supply**: In October, imports increased for four consecutive months, and domestic production declined. In November, supply pressure may ease due to Australian mine maintenance and weak prices [92][101] - **Demand**: In October, domestic demand weakened, and exports had limited growth. In November, demand will continue to decline, and restocking demand may support prices [102] - **Inventory**: In October, port inventory accumulated due to strong supply and weak demand. In November, inventory accumulation may slow down or slightly decline [107] - **Market Trend Judgment** - As macro drivers weaken in November, the iron ore market will return to reality. Prices are expected to trade in the range of 760 - 800 yuan/ton for the main contract of Dalian iron ore futures, corresponding to about 100 - 105 US dollars/ton for the overseas market [114][116] - **Later Concerns/Risk Factors** - Stability of overseas ore shipments, domestic policy increments, and the speed of steel mill profit decline [118] Part 4: Coking Coal and Coke - Prices Trade in a Range, Pay Attention to Demand Resilience - **Market Operation Logic** - **Market Review in October 2025**: In October, coking coal and coke prices rebounded due to a warm macro - environment and fundamental support [121][123] - **Coking Coal**: Coal production may increase steadily in November. Imports are rising, but demand may decline seasonally, and inventory may accumulate [124][130] - **Coke**: The coke market follows the coking coal market. The key lies in demand, and if steel mills' profits deteriorate further, it will limit price rebounds [16] - **Market Trend Judgment** - In November, the coking coal and coke market's fundamental support may weaken, and prices will trade in a range [16] - **Later Concerns/Risk Factors** - Production rhythm of coking coal, coke, and steel, changes in imported coal volume, and demand negative - feedback pressure transmission [16]
煤焦:煤矿产量下降价格表现坚挺
Hua Bao Qi Huo· 2025-11-06 02:42
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The short - term domestic coal mine production has not recovered, which supports the market's confidence in holding prices; the demand is in a slow decline trend, generally still at a relatively high level, and the inventory pressure is temporarily not large. The coking coal price should focus on the pressure at the 1320 yuan/ton level [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Performance - Yesterday, the coking coal and coke futures prices rebounded in a volatile manner, and the night - session continued the rebound trend, performing stronger than steel and ore. The spot market was generally stable with a slight upward trend, domestic coal prices rose again, and the third round of price increases for coke was gradually implemented [3] Policy Changes - The Dalian Commodity Exchange recently issued an announcement on publicly soliciting opinions on adjusting the coking coal delivery quality standard. The overall content change is not significant, mainly adjusting the premium and discount ranges of the reaction strength and sulfur content after coking coal is made into coke. The new delivery quality standard does not affect the current existing contracts [3] Fundamental Situation - This week, coal mines in Shanxi further reduced production, with the most obvious reduction in the Lvliang area. State - owned large mines in the Liulin area began to control production independently, and the output declined significantly. The daily average output of clean coal dropped to 73.8 million tons, a decrease of 2 million tons compared with the previous week and 4.6 million tons year - on - year. The decline in output stimulated the market's bullish sentiment [4] Demand Side - The profit of steel mills continued to shrink, and the profitability rate dropped to about 45%. However, from past experience, the current profitability rate will not lead to large - scale production cuts by steel mills for the time being. Later, attention should be paid to changes in profitability and production - cut actions of steel mills [4] Later Concerns - Pay attention to changes in the blast furnace start - up of steel mills and the resumption of production of coal mines [4]
华宝期货晨报铝锭-20251106
Hua Bao Qi Huo· 2025-11-06 02:42
晨报 铝锭 成材:重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭:下游开工回落 累库压力加大 投资咨询业务资格: 以伊冲突 负责人:赵 毅 从业资格号:F3059924 投资咨询号:Z0002978 电话:010-62688526 从业资格号:F3078638 投资咨询号:Z0018248 电话:010-62688555 从业资格号:F3038114 投资咨询号:Z0014834 电话:010-62688541 地址:北京市海淀区海淀大街 8 号 19 层 ☎ 400-700-6700 www.zgfcc.com 逻辑:云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬,复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右,停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂,1 家钢厂已 于 1 月 5 日开始停产;其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假, 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:昨日沪铝高位运行。宏观上美国 ADP 就业报告周三显示,10 月美 国民间就业岗位增加 4.2 万个,高于此前预估的 2.8 万个。10 月其非制造 业采购经理人指数(PMI)升至 52.4,高于 ...
成材:关注周度数据,钢价低位运行-20251106
Hua Bao Qi Huo· 2025-11-06 02:42
Group 1 - Report industry investment rating: Callback operation [3] Group 2 - The core view of the report: The steel price is running at a low level, and the callback is running. After the macro - positive news, the steel price returns to its own fundamentals, and the current steel price still faces pressure [1][2][3] Group 3 Trade policy - Since 13:01 on November 10, 2025, the measure of imposing additional tariffs on imported goods originating from the United States has been adjusted. The 24% additional tariff rate on the United States will continue to be suspended for one year, and the 10% additional tariff rate on the United States will be retained [2] Steel production - As of November 5, 14 out of 89 blast furnaces of 23 sample steel enterprises in Tangshan were under maintenance. Some enterprises planned to moderately reduce production, with an average daily impact on hot metal of about 39,100 tons. The capacity utilization rate was 83.19%, an increase of 0.28% from last week and a decrease of 5.07% from the same period last year [2] - In late October 2025, key steel enterprises produced 19.99 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 1.817 million tons, a 9.8% decrease in daily output month - on - month. The steel inventory was 14.63 million tons, a decrease of 1.95 million tons or 11.8% from the previous ten - day period [2] Cost and profit - This week, the average tax - included cost of billets of mainstream sample steel mills in Tangshan was 3,081 yuan/ton, an increase of 48 yuan/ton week - on - week. Compared with the ex - factory price of 2,910 yuan/ton of common billets on November 5, the average loss of steel mills was 171 yuan/ton [2] Market performance - The finished steel bottomed out and rebounded yesterday. The main contract of rebar once fell to around 3,000. Rebar gave back all the gains since late October, while hot - rolled coils performed slightly stronger [2] Market situation - After the Sino - US trade consultations and the "15th Five - Year Plan" suggestions, the macro - positive news has come to an end, and the steel price has returned to its own fundamentals. The current real estate market continues to be sluggish, and the industry fundamentals have not changed much, so the steel price still faces pressure [2] Later attention - Later, attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [3]
华宝期货成材晨报-20251105
Hua Bao Qi Huo· 2025-11-05 02:54
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of finished steel products are weak, and steel prices are under pressure. After the macro - level positive factors from Sino - US trade consultations and the "15th Five - Year Plan" suggestions ended, steel prices returned to their own fundamentals. The current real - estate situation is still sluggish according to statistical data, and the weekly fundamentals last week were neutral with no unexpected supply - demand changes. The weak downstream situation exerts pressure on steel prices [2][3] - The raw materials are expected to move in a downward - correction pattern [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Production - Some steel mills in Shanxi have proposed shutdown and maintenance plans. One steel mill's blast furnace is planned to shut down for maintenance this weekend, with a daily output impact of about 0.70 thousand tons. Three steel mills are tentatively planned for maintenance in December, with a daily output impact of about 1.35 thousand tons. In October, a total of 33 national construction steel production enterprises carried out production - cut maintenance, affecting the construction steel output by 1.762 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.12%, including an impact on rebar output of 1.3108 million tons [3] Real - Estate Market - From October 27th to November 2nd, the total transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 1.7436 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 3% and a year - on - year decrease of 35.9% [3]
煤焦:焦价三轮提涨落地,关注需求变化
Hua Bao Qi Huo· 2025-11-05 02:50
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoint of the Report The macro - driving force has weakened, the sector is oscillating weakly; in the short term, the supply - demand of coal and coke has marginal fluctuations, generally remaining at a relatively high level, with no significant inventory pressure, and the price is oscillating in the range of 1080 - 1320 [3]. 3) Summary According to Relevant Contents Market Situation - Affected by the weak prices of steel and ore, the futures prices of coal and coke followed the downward trend, and the prices fell after reaching the upper limit of the 1080 - 1320 oscillation range. The spot market is generally stable with a slight upward trend, and the third round of coke price increases has been gradually implemented, with a cumulative increase of 150 - 165 yuan/ton [2]. - The DCE issued an announcement on publicly soliciting opinions on adjusting the coking coal delivery quality standard. The overall content has little change, mainly adjusting the premium and discount range of the reaction strength and sulfur content after coking coal is made into coke, and the new standard further aligns the mainstream delivery mines with Shanxi coal, having no impact on the current existing contracts [2]. Fundamental Data - Last week, the daily average output of coking coal from domestic coal mines was 75.8 tons, a slight decrease of 0.3 tons compared with the previous week [3]. - At the import end, the daily average clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port last week rebounded to 16.43 tons, an increase of 5.6 tons compared with the previous week, returning to a relatively high level [3]. - The steel mill profit continued to shrink, and the profitability rate dropped to about 45%. Historically, the current profitability rate will not lead to large - scale production cuts by steel mills. The daily average pig iron output last week dropped to 236.36 tons, a decrease of 3.55 tons compared with the previous week, mainly due to environmental protection pressure in some areas of Hebei [3]. Later Concerns - With the approaching end of the peak demand season, the pressure on finished products is increasing, and the pig iron output tends to decline. Attention should be paid to the transmission of pressure to the raw material end [3]. - Later, attention should be paid to the changes in the blast furnace start - up of steel mills and the resumption of production in coal mines [3].