晨报 煤焦 煤焦：矿端库存下降明显 盘面震荡运行 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 针对超产问题追踪，山西核查煤矿超产持续深入推进中。上周山西除 吕梁外其他区域陆续收到文件并开始执行核查产量，目前已有多座煤矿自 发减产压产，叠加临近 9 月阅兵，安监形势严峻，预计短期煤矿增量有限。 本周 523 座炼焦煤样本矿山数据，原煤日产 188.3 万吨，环比减少 5.3 万吨。其中山西原煤日产 105.9 万吨，环比减少 3.8 万吨。 焦煤结构性库存压力得到明显缓解。目前 523 家煤矿原煤库存 476.5 万吨，较 6 月高点下降 224.5 万吨；精煤库存 245.7 万吨，较 6 月高点下 降 254.3 万吨。需求端，本周焦化厂、钢厂对于原料补库动作有所放缓， 厂内焦煤库存可用天数低位回升后趋稳，本周钢厂日均铁水产量 240.32 万吨，环比上周减少 0.39 万吨，同比去年增加 8.62 万吨。 原材料：程 ...

负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 原材料：程 鹏 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 8 月 8 日 晨报 成材 成材：情绪趋缓 整理运行 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 观点：仍有调整，观望为主。 后期关注/风险因素：宏观政策；供给侧减产情况；下游需求情况。 重要声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开的资料，我公司对信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证，也不保证包含的信 息和建议不会发生变更，我们已力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中观点、结论和建议仅供参考，投资者据此 做出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关。 地址：北京市海淀区海淀大街 8 号 1 ...

晨报 铁矿石 铁矿石：市场情绪偏谨慎 短期矿价区间运行 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 库存方面：钢厂端进口矿日耗保持高位，由于铁矿石价格持续上涨，钢厂端持续补库；因 到港量回落至中位偏低水平，本期港口库存下滑显著，对后市，随着发运回升以及铁水边际减 弱，预计短期库存整体趋于平稳或小幅回升趋势。 观点：短期宏观进入空窗期，黑色系整体维持高位盘整周期。外矿供给支撑边际减弱，8 月份外矿发运逐步回升，但基于当前高炉高利润以及终端需求淡季不淡特征，预计短期国内需 求维持保持相对高位水平，铁矿石供需阶段性平衡，港口库存趋向于平稳或小幅上升，预计短 期铁矿石盘面价格高位震荡运行。 有色金属：于梦雪 价格：价格区间震荡运行。i2601 合约价格区间 745 元/吨~780 元/吨，外盘 FE09 合约价 格区间 98.5~103 美金/吨。 后期关注/风险因素：阅兵限产政策、美联储降息预期、供给回升速度 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号： ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint Market speculation sentiment has cooled, and coal prices are gradually returning to rationality. However, short - term fundamental improvements support coal prices to run strongly, and price fluctuations remain intense. It is recommended to participate with caution [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Market Performance - Yesterday, coal and coke futures prices fluctuated strongly, with increased intraday volatility. Coking coal spot prices remained strong, and coke prices were stable after the fifth round of price hikes [2]. Supply - Side Situation - In response to over - production issues, Shanxi's verification of coal mine over - production is being deepened. Many coal mines have voluntarily reduced production, and with the approaching September parade and strict safety supervision, short - term coal mine production increases are limited [2]. - This week, the daily output of raw coal from 523 coking coal sample mines was 1.883 million tons, a decrease of 53,000 tons compared to the previous week. Among them, the daily output of raw coal in Shanxi was 1.059 million tons, a decrease of 38,000 tons compared to the previous week [2]. Inventory Situation - The structural inventory pressure has been significantly alleviated. The raw coal inventory of 523 coal mines is 476500 tons, a decrease of 224500 tons from the high in June; the clean coal inventory is 245700 tons, a decrease of 254300 tons from the high in June [3]. Demand - Side Situation - Last week, coking plants and steel mills slowed down their raw material replenishment. The available days of coking coal inventory in factories stabilized after rising from a low level. Currently, steel mills have a good profit margin, production remains at a relatively high level, and the daily average pig iron output is over 2.4 million tons, supporting raw material demand [3]. Later Concerns - Pay attention to changes in steel mill blast furnace starts and coal mine resumption of production [3]

Group 1: Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1][2][3] Group 2: Core View - The steel price is still expected to adjust, and it is advisable to wait and see [3] Group 3: Summary by Content - **Cost and Profit**: This week, the average tax - free hot metal cost of mainstream sample steel mills in Tangshan was 2,118 yuan/ton, and the average tax - included billet cost was 2,868 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton week - on - week. Compared with the ex - factory price of common billets on August 6th (3,090 yuan/ton), the average profit of steel mills was 222 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan/ton week - on - week [2] - **Fund Availability**: As of August 5th, the fund availability rate of sample construction sites was 58.5%, down 0.2 percentage points week - on - week. The fund availability rate of housing construction projects was 51.14%, remaining flat week - on - week [2] - **Market Situation**: Driven by the rise in coking coal prices, the finished products rose slightly during the day yesterday with a slight intraday increase. Currently, the overall steel market still has stronger supply than demand. Supply - side indicators such as daily hot metal output, blast furnace operating rate, and steel mill profitability are relatively high, while downstream demand is average, affected by monthly real - estate data and the rainy - season impact on construction sites. On the other hand, macro - level policies still drive up prices [2] - **Later Concerns**: Macro policies, supply - side production reduction situation, and downstream demand situation [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The finished products are expected to move in a range-bound manner, with the price center shifting downward and showing a weak trend. The aluminum ingots are expected to show a short-term strong and volatile trend, with the price mainly moving at a high level in the short term, and subsequent attention should be paid to the inventory-to-consumption trend [1][2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Finished Products - The short - process construction steel enterprises in the Yunnan - Guizhou region will have a shutdown and maintenance period during the Spring Festival from mid - to late January, and the resumption time is expected to be around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, with an estimated impact on the total construction steel output of 741,000 tons during the shutdown. In Anhui Province, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5, and most of the remaining mills will stop production around mid - January, with an estimated daily impact on output of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [1][2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a month - on - month decrease of 40.3% and a year - on - year increase of 43.2% [2] - The finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, reaching a new low in the recent period. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is also pessimistic, leading to a continuous downward shift of the price center. The winter storage this year is sluggish, providing weak support for prices [2] Aluminum - Macroscopically, after the July employment data was weaker than expected, traders bet that the number of Fed rate cuts this year would exceed previous expectations, and the US dollar weakened. The domestic new - issue Cailian Press "C50 Wind Direction Index" shows that the market expects that government bonds in July will support the year - on - year increase in new social financing, and the substitution effect may turn the new loan scale negative, but the growth rate is still high [1] - In terms of the supply side of aluminum, the port shipping in Guinea was suspended due to the previous mining rights issue, which drove the alumina futures price up slightly, but the impact on futures is relatively limited. In August, the operating capacity of alumina is expected to increase month - on - month, and the demand for bauxite will grow. Xinjiang Zhonghe's 2.4 - million - ton alumina project is expected to be completed and put into production in the first half of 2026. Affected by the rainy season, the shipping volume of Guinea's bauxite decreased from late June to July, and the total amount of bauxite imported from Guinea by China is expected to decline starting from August, while the increase in domestic bauxite supply is limited. The inventory accumulation of bauxite in China is expected to slow down gradually starting from August, and the total bauxite inventory is expected to reach an inflection point from August to September [2] - In July, the domestic electrolytic aluminum output increased by 1.05% year - on - year and 3.11% month - on - month. The operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum increased slightly month - on - month in July, mainly due to the commissioning of the second - phase replacement project of Shandong - Yunnan's electrolytic aluminum. As of August 7, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in the domestic mainstream consumption areas was 564,000 tons, unchanged from Monday and up 20,000 tons from last Thursday [2] - Currently, the inventory is accumulating in the off - season, and the off - season pressure on the demand side limits the upward space. Be vigilant about the increased pricing of macro risks. The rate - cut expectation provides short - term support for prices. Pay attention to the promotion of domestic policies. The aluminum price is expected to mainly move at a high level in the short term, and subsequent attention should be paid to the inventory - to - consumption trend [3] Later Concerns - For finished products, pay attention to macro policies and downstream demand [2] - For aluminum, pay attention to changes in macro expectations, the development of geopolitical crises, the resumption of production at the mine end, and the release of consumption [4]

从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 晨报 铁矿石 铁矿石：焦煤带动市场情绪 短期矿价区间运行 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 观点：短期宏观进入空窗期，黑色系整体维持高位盘整周期。外矿供给支撑边际减弱，8 月份外矿发运逐步回升，但基于当前高炉高利润以及终端需求淡季不淡特征，预计短期国内需 求维持保持相对高位水平，铁矿石供需阶段性平衡，港口库存趋向于平稳或小幅上升，预计短 期铁矿石盘面价格高位震荡运行。 有色金属：于梦雪 2025 年 8 月 6 日 逻辑：昨日黑色系集体上行，主因是焦煤价格再度大幅上涨带动板块走强，受安全新规执 行即将落地，市场对煤矿安全监管趋严预期增加，整体看原材料端焦煤供给因素 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View -成材价格震荡整理运行，后期关注宏观政策和下游需求情况 [4] -铝价预计短期区间调整，需关注宏观情绪和下游开工 [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1.成材 - 云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节停产检修预计影响总产量74.1万吨，安徽省短流程钢厂停产期间日度影响产量1.62万吨左右 [4] - 2024年12月30日 - 2025年1月5日，10个重点城市新建商品房成交面积环比下降40.3%，同比增长43.2% [4] - 成材昨日震荡下行，价格创新低，在供需双弱格局下市场情绪悲观，价格重心下移，冬储低迷对价格支撑不强 [4] 3.2.铝锭 - 宏观上市场关注美联储人事变动，可能使其转向更鸽派，昨日铝价区间震荡 [3] - 几内亚港口发运被叫停带动氧化铝期货价格小幅上行，8月氧化铝运行产能预计环比增加，铝土矿需求增长 [4] - 6月底至7月几内亚铝土矿发运量降低，预计8月中国自几内亚进口铝土矿总量下滑，国产铝土矿供应增量有限 [4] - 8月开始中国铝土矿库存累库幅度预计放缓，8 - 9月库存总量预计出现拐点 [4] - 7月国内电解铝产量同比增长1.05%，环比增长3.11%，8月4日国内主流消费地电解铝锭库存56.4万吨，较上周四增长2.0万吨，较上周一上涨3.1万吨 [4] - 当前淡季库存累库，需求端压力限制上行空间，警惕宏观风险计价加码，关注国内政策推进 [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - Market speculation sentiment has cooled, coal prices are gradually returning to rationality, but short - term fundamental improvements support coal prices to run strongly, and price fluctuations remain severe. It is recommended to participate with caution [4] Group 3: Summary According to the Report Market Performance - Yesterday, the prices of coal and coke futures fluctuated strongly, with intensified intraday fluctuations. The spot market price performance lagged behind the futures, maintaining a strong operation, and the fifth round of coke price increase was fully implemented [3] Supply Side - Regarding the tracking of over - production issues, last week, regions in Shanxi except Lvliang received documents and started to verify production. The document may not cause an obvious reduction in short - term coking coal production, but the medium - and long - term impact on coal mine production should be noted. Recently, some coal mines have faced suspension for rectification and fines due to their 2024 raw coal output exceeding the approved capacity by 33%. With the approaching September military parade, the safety supervision situation is severe, and it is expected that the short - term coal mine increment is limited [3] Inventory Status - The structural inventory pressure has been significantly alleviated. Currently, the raw coal inventory of 523 coal mines is 4.83 million tons, a decrease of 2.18 million tons from the high point in June; the clean coal inventory is 2.48 million tons, a decrease of 2.52 million tons from the high point in June [4] Demand Side - Last week, the raw material replenishment actions of coking plants and steel mills slowed down. The available days of coking coal inventory in the plants stabilized after rising from a low level. Currently, the profitability rate of steel mills is acceptable, production remains at a relatively high level, and the daily average pig iron output is over 2.4 million tons, which supports the demand for raw materials [4] Future Focus - Pay attention to changes in the blast furnace start - up of steel mills and the resumption of coal mine production [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoint - The steel price is expected to undergo adjustments, and it is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see approach [4] Summary According to Related Content Cost and Profit - On August 5, the average cost of 76 independent electric arc furnace construction steel mills was 3312 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 4 yuan/ton, the average profit was - 31 yuan/ton, and the valley - electricity profit was 70 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 7 yuan/ton [3] Real Estate Transaction Data - From July 28 to August 3, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 1.467 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 3.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.7%; the total transaction (signing) area of second - hand housing was 1.9959 million square meters, a month - on - month decrease of 6.5% and a year - on - year increase of 4.7% [3] Market Situation - Benefiting from the limit - up of coking coal on the raw material side, the finished products continued to rebound yesterday. The market continues to waver between macro anti - involution and industry fundamentals, and steel prices fluctuate repeatedly in the short term [3] Fundamental Situation - Currently, the overall supply of steel is stronger than demand. On the supply side, the daily average pig iron output, blast furnace operating rate, and steel mill profitability are all relatively high, but downstream demand is mediocre, affected by monthly real estate data and the actual impact of the rainy season on construction sites [3] Later Concerns - Macro policies, supply - side production cuts, and downstream demand [4]