整理 投资咨询业务资格： 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 铁矿石： 供应持续高增 建议空配为主 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 晨报 铁矿石 需求方面：国内铁矿石需求主要取决于钢厂利润水平以及钢材库存去化程度，由于今年气温 偏高，工地开工或提前，市场对需求仍有一定乐观预期。短期来看，终端需求出现超预期增长概 率偏低，后期关注钢材库存去化节点以及复工强度。从季节性规律来看，铁水进入回升周期，后 期更多关注回升速度以及高度，从当前钢厂利润水平以及需求预期来看，回升速度保持相对平缓。 原材料：程 鹏 库存方面：钢厂端节后仍存在补库需求，但补库强度和持续性仍取决于终端需求复苏情况； 从当前疏港水平来看，港口库存仍将处于累积状态，叠加现货价格走弱，预期短期港口库存累积 压力仍保持高压态势。同时，注意贸易受限库存的潜在抛售风险。 原材料： 冯艳成 观点：短期宏观预期偏弱，铁矿石供需矛盾持续积累，供给同比保持高增，铁矿石需求仍受 产业链利润限制，建议空配为主。 价格：预期区间在 93~100 美元/吨（6 ...

晨报 煤焦 煤焦：蒙煤通关恢复 盘面弱势震荡 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 逻辑：节后首个交易日，黑色金属板块整体走弱，煤焦跌幅居前，价 格迫近近期震荡区间下沿，夜盘价格短暂冲高后回落。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 从基上面来看，假期期间国内煤矿停产放假范围较大，煤矿产量骤减， 市场成交稀少，询盘报盘冷清，市场活跃度降至冰点。2 月 23 日当周数 据显示，原煤、精煤日产 108.6 万吨、45.9 万吨，分别较节前下降 72.2 万吨、28.4 万吨。目前煤矿已进入复产周期，预计本周产量将显 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no specific investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand of lithium carbonate has returned to a tight balance, and the price is expected to run strongly within a certain range [5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Contents Market Conditions - The closing price of the main contract of lithium carbonate futures was 164,120 yuan/ton, with shrinking trading volume, slightly increasing positions, and a decreasing long - short ratio. The inventory of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange increased by 96 lots to 38,855 lots. The average price of SMM electric carbon was 152,000 yuan/ton, and the price difference between electric carbon and industrial carbon was 3,500 yuan/ton. The market trading was light. Upstream lithium salt factories continued the strategy of惜售 and price support, with only a few manufacturers making small - volume shipments. Downstream enterprises had weak purchasing sentiment on the first day after the holiday, and most had completed raw material procurement for February before the Spring Festival, still maintaining the idea of buying on dips, with only a few enterprises having rigid - demand restocking actions [3] Fundamentals Supply - Before the Spring Festival, the price of spodumene concentrate (CIF) increased slightly, while that of mica decreased slightly. The SMM weekly operating rate was 46.02% (-1.27%), and the operating rates of all processes except lithium mica decreased. The SMM weekly total output was 20,184 tons (-560 tons), and the supply shrank slightly [4] Demand - The demand performance was differentiated. The production of lithium iron phosphate increased while inventory decreased, and both the production and inventory of ternary materials decreased. As of February 8, the penetration rate of new energy vehicle sales dropped to 36.3%, at a relatively low level. In January, the total production of power + energy - storage batteries was 168.0 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 16.7% and a year - on - year increase of 55.9%; the sales volume was 148.8 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 25.4% and a year - on - year increase of 85.1%. The production and sales of energy - storage cells were booming, and the inventory was at a low level, which was a structural highlight [4] Inventory - Before the Spring Festival, the SMM four - location sample social inventory increased by 3,160 tons to 46,210 tons. The sample weekly total inventory decreased to 102,932 tons, and the total inventory days decreased to 29.6 days, returning to a tight - balance pattern [4] Macro - policy Demand - side - Subsidies for trading in old cars for new ones and export tax rebates for batteries directly stimulate terminal consumption and improve macro - liquidity [5] Supply - side - In January, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the management measures for the comprehensive utilization of new energy vehicle power batteries, which raised the recycling threshold, eliminated backward production capacity, optimized the domestic supply in the long term, and raised the cost support center [5] Industry Planning - The development of Qinghai salt lakes, the key points of energy - storage in the 15th Five - Year Plan, and a series of deployments of the Central Economic Work Conference form synergy to support the long - term supply - demand balance [5] International Aspect - On February 20, the US Supreme Court ruled that the IEEPA tariff was illegal, and the White House imposed a 15% temporary tariff. The tariff on energy - storage cells decreased from 48.4% to 43.4%, and the export profit improved marginally, which was beneficial to demand within the window period [5]

成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：春节下游走弱 市场偏谨慎 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 晨报 铝锭 以伊冲突 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 右。2024 年 12 月 30 日-2025 年 1 月 5 日，10 个重点城市新建商品房成 交（签约）面积总计 223.4 万平方米，环比下降 40.3%，同比增长 43.2%。 成材昨日继续震荡下行，价格再创近期新低。在供需双弱的格局下， 市场情绪同样偏悲观，导致价格重心持续下移。无论从宏观上还是产业上， 市场近期均无太多亮点。且今年冬储偏低迷，对价格支撑不强。 观点：震荡整理运行。 后期关注/风险因素：宏观政策；下游需求情况。 成 材：武秋婷 原材料：程 鹏 原材料： 冯艳成 有色金属：于梦雪 基本面来看,当前国产铝土矿货源较为充足，短期价格持稳 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core View of the Report - The report suggests that the finished products will fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to the 3000 support level for rebar [3]. 3) Summary According to Related Contents - **Production Data**: Affected by the Spring Festival holiday, the production of rebar decreased by 225,200 tons to 1.6916 million tons, hot - rolled coil production decreased by 14,000 tons to 3.0776 million tons, and the total production of five major steel products decreased by 258,400 tons to 7.9406 million tons [2]. - **Inventory Data**: The total inventory of rebar increased by 652,500 tons to 5.8482 million tons, the total inventory of hot - rolled coil increased by 115,700 tons to 3.7077 million tons, and the total inventory of five major steel products increased by 1.0398 million tons to 14.4173 million tons [2]. - **Apparent Demand Data**: The apparent demand for rebar decreased by 437,300 tons to 1.0391 million tons, the apparent demand for hot - rolled coil decreased by 93,500 tons to 2.9619 million tons, and the apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 705,800 tons to 6.9008 million tons [2]. - **Market Situation**: The finished products were still trading in a narrow range yesterday. As the Spring Festival approaches, the spot market is gradually entering the holiday mode. There may still be capital outflows before the festival, leading to a decline in market trading. The macro situation is calm and has little impact on prices [3]. - **Later Concerns**: Macro - policies and downstream demand conditions should be monitored [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Supply and demand have returned to a tight balance. Due to the uncertainty during the Spring Festival, it is recommended to hold a light position and wait and see before the festival [5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Contents Market Performance - Yesterday, the price of the main contract of lithium carbonate futures rose significantly to 149,420 yuan/ton, with a slight decrease in trading volume and open interest; the daily inventory of lithium carbonate on the GZFE increased to 37,282 lots. The SMM average price of electric carbon in the spot market was 142,500 yuan/ton, with an electrician price difference of 3,500 yuan/ton. The spot market sentiment was cautious despite the strong futures market [3] Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: Last week, raw material prices in the market generally declined. This week, the SMM total weekly operating rate was 46.02% (-1.27%), and the operating rates of all processes except lithium mica decreased. The SMM weekly total output was 20,184 tons (-560 tons). There were also information disturbances on the supply side, and the sentiment of ethnic resource nationalism increased, providing some resonance support to the overall market sentiment [3][4] - **Demand**: Last week's data showed that the production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials decreased slightly month - on - month, and inventory was destocked. As of January 18, the penetration rate of new energy vehicle sales in the SMM data rose to 55.6%, remaining at a relatively high level. In January, the total production of power and energy storage batteries in China was 168.0 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 16.7% and a year - on - year increase of 55.9%; sales were 148.8 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 25.4% and a year - on - year increase of 85.1%. Energy storage cells performed strongly, with both production and sales booming and low inventory [4] - **Inventory**: According to SMM data, last week, the social inventory of the four - location sample increased by 3.73% week - on - week to 43,050 tons. This week, the total sample weekly inventory decreased to 102,932 tons, and the total inventory days decreased to 29.6 days, returning to a tight - balance pattern [4] Macro - policy and Environment - **Demand - side**: Multiple incentives such as subsidies for car trade - ins and export tax rebates for batteries stimulate terminal consumption and improve macro - liquidity [5] - **Supply - side**: On January 15, the National Development and Reform Commission proposed to introduce management measures for the comprehensive utilization of new energy vehicle power batteries, which will improve the recycling threshold and eliminate backward production capacity, optimizing the domestic supply structure and raising the cost support center in the long term [5] - **Industrial Planning**: The industrial planning of Qinghai Salt Lake, the key points of the "15th Five - Year Plan" for energy storage, and a series of deployments at the Central Economic Work Conference form synergistic benefits, supporting long - term supply - demand balance [5] - **Macro Environment**: The central bank's structural interest rate cut indirectly strengthens the long - term macro - positive atmosphere [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current supply - demand contradiction of coal and coke is general. The overall sentiment in the ferrous metal market is weak, and prices are running weakly. In the last week before the Spring Festival, attention should be paid to controlling position risks [3] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Market Performance - Yesterday, coal and coke futures prices continued to run in a weak and volatile manner, with a reduced amplitude, and the prices were close to the lower edge of the recent volatile range. Due to the seasonal off - season, the market trading sentiment cooled down, and the overall trend of the ferrous metal sector was weak [3] Fundamental Analysis - This week, the scope of domestic coal mine shutdowns for holidays expanded, and market activity further cooled down. Coke and steel enterprises basically completed their inventory replenishment, and traders began to take holidays. The market trading atmosphere was cold, and the auction price continued to decline. Due to the supply contraction caused by coal mine holidays and the low procurement demand of coke and steel enterprises, the market was characterized by weak supply and demand, and the upstream pit - mouth inventory changed little [3] - This week, the daily production of raw coal and clean coal was 1.808 million tons and 743,000 tons respectively, a week - on - week decrease of 118,000 tons and 12,000 tons respectively [3] - At the import end, the daily customs clearance volume at the Ganqimaodu Port for Mongolian coal decreased slightly last week. According to the bilateral agreement between China and Mongolia, the three major ports will be closed during the 2026 Spring Festival, from the first to the fourth day of the first lunar month (February 17 - 20), and will be normally closed on February 15 and February 22 (Sundays) [3] - On the demand side, the blast furnace operation rate of steel mills increased steadily. This week, the average daily pig iron output increased to about 2.305 million tons [3]

晨报 煤焦 成文时间： 2026 年 2 月 12 日 逻辑：昨日，煤焦期货价格延续弱势震荡运行，价格靠近近期震荡区 间下沿。近日季节性淡季，市场交投情绪降温，黑色金属板块整体走势偏 弱。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 从基上面来看，本周国内煤矿停产放假范围扩大，市场活跃度进一步 降温，焦钢企业补库基本完成，贸易商开始放假休市，市场成交氛围冷清， 竞拍价格继续下探。由于煤矿放假供应收缩，而焦钢采购需求低迷，市场 供需双弱，上游坑口库存变化不大。本周原煤、精煤日产 180.8 万吨、74.3 万吨，分别环比下降 11.8 万吨、1.2 万吨。进口端，上周蒙煤甘其毛都 口岸日通关量略有下降，根据中蒙两国双边协定，2026 年春节期间三大 口岸闭关，正月初一至初四（2 月 17 日至 20 日）闭关四天，2 月 15 日、 2 月 22 日周日正常闭关。需求端，钢厂生产相对平稳，日均铁水产量维 持 228 万吨左右。 成 材：武秋婷 原材料：程 鹏 观点：当前煤焦供需矛盾一般，黑色金属市场整体情绪偏弱，价格偏 弱势运行，节前最后一周，注意持仓风险控制。 煤焦：交投情绪降温 盘面弱势震荡 投资咨询业务资格： 负责 ...

晨报 铝锭 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：长假前市场谨慎 关注宏观波动 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2026 年 2 月 12 日 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:昨日沪铝区间震荡。宏观上非农就业者上个月增加了 13 万人， 失业率下降至 4.3%，就业数据表现强于预期，促使交易员下调对美联储今 年降息幅度的预期。 以伊冲突 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 个别钢 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2) Core View of the Report - The price of finished steel products is in a small - range shock consolidation, with a doji candlestick in price, and the weak downstream demand is the key factor dragging down steel prices. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, the spot market is gradually entering the holiday rhythm, and there may still be funds leaving the market, leading to a decline in market trading. The macro - level is calm and has little impact on prices. The raw materials are expected to run weakly in a shock, and attention should be paid to the 3000 support level for rebar. [2][4] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Finished Steel Products - As of February 11, 2026, only two domestic hot - rolled strip steel producers have introduced winter storage preferential policies, both for internal agreement customers and surrounding strategic customers, and the rest of the steel mills have not introduced such policies and will follow the usual sales policies during the Spring Festival. This week, the average tax - free hot - metal cost and the average tax - included billet cost of mainstream sample steel mills in Tangshan have decreased slightly, and the loss per ton of steel mills has increased by 10 yuan compared with the ex - factory price of common billets at 2,900 yuan/ton. [3] - The price of finished steel products is in small - range shock consolidation, and the weak downstream demand drags down prices. As the Spring Festival approaches, the spot market enters the holiday rhythm, with possible fund outflows and reduced trading. The macro - level is calm and has little impact on prices. [2][4] Raw Materials - The raw materials are expected to run weakly in a shock, and attention should be paid to the 3000 support level for rebar. The later - stage concerns are macro policies and downstream demand. [4]