晨报 成材 成材：受原料拖累 钢价回调 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 逻辑：中钢协：2025 年 7 月，重点统计钢铁企业共生产粗钢 6680 万 吨,同比下降 3.2%，日产 215.48 万吨，环比下降 5.6%。据奥维云网(AVC) 线下市场监测数据显示，7 月彩电线下零售额规模同比增长 13.6%；冰箱 同比增长 15.7%；洗衣机同比增长 15.7%；空调同比增长 36.5%8 月 18 日， Mysteel 统计 76 家独立电弧炉建筑钢材钢厂平均成本为 3352 元/吨，日 环比减少 3 元/吨，平均利润为-76 元/吨，谷电利润为 25 元/吨，日环比 减少 7 元/吨。8 月 18 日，唐山迁安普方坯资源出厂含税下调 20，报 3050。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 成材昨日震荡回落，双 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The price of finished products is expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, with the price center shifting downward and running weakly [1][3]. - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to fluctuate in a short - term range, and the market presents a mild recovery trend [3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - In the context of weak supply and demand and pessimistic market sentiment, the price of finished products continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. The winter storage this year is sluggish, providing limited price support. The view is that it will move in a volatile and consolidating manner. Later, attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [3]. - Yunguizhou region's short - process construction steel enterprises will have a shutdown and maintenance period during the Spring Festival from mid - January, with an estimated impact on the total construction steel output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5, and most of the rest will stop around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [2]. - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a month - on - month decrease of 40.3% and a year - on - year increase of 43.2% [3]. Aluminum - As of last Thursday, the total built - in production capacity of metallurgical - grade alumina in China was 110.32 million tons/year, and the total operating production capacity was 91.79 million tons/year. The weekly alumina start - up rate increased by 0.63 percentage points to 83.20% compared with last week [3]. - Last week, the overall start - up rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.8 percentage points to 59.5% week - on - week, showing a mild recovery. In some sub - fields, the start - up rate increased, while the recycled aluminum start - up rate decreased slightly. It is expected that some fields will continue to pick up in late August, and the traditional peak season may further drive demand [3]. - On August 18, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 607,000 tons, an increase of 19,000 tons compared with last Thursday and 20,000 tons compared with last Monday [3]. - Macro - level interest - rate cut expectations support the price. It is expected to run in a range in the near future, and later attention should be paid to the macro - expectations, geopolitical crises, mine resumption, and consumption release [4].

原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 晨报 铁矿石 铁矿石：宏观预期偏向于积极 短期矿价区间运行 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 逻辑：上周中美关税政策落地，国内短期宏观进入空窗期，市场更多关注美联储降息预期。 黑色系受终端需求走弱影响（螺纹表需超预期下滑）整体较为弱势，叠加交易所对焦煤投机氛 围再度抑制（限仓并提高手续费），铁矿石价格跟随回落。但当前高炉高利润以及短流程谷电 再度陷入亏损，预计短期国内需求维持保持相对高位水平，且供给端回升压力并不大，铁矿石 供需阶段性平衡，港口库存趋向于平稳。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 负责人 ...

Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to oscillate and consolidate, and attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [4] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to be in a short - term range oscillation, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and mine - end news [6] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to operate at a high level in the near future, and then pay attention to the inventory - consumption trend [5] Summary by Related Content Finished Products - Yungui region's short - process construction steel enterprises' Spring Festival shutdown and maintenance time is mostly in mid - to late January, and the resumption time is expected to be around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, with an estimated impact on the total construction steel output of 741,000 tons during the shutdown period [3] - In Anhui Province, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5th, and most of the remaining steel mills will stop production around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown period [4] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [4] - The price of finished products continued to oscillate downward yesterday, reaching a new low in the recent period. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is also pessimistic, leading to a continuous downward shift of the price center of gravity [4] Aluminum - Last week, the aluminum price was operating at a high level. Macro data kept the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September unchanged, and traders were waiting for the result of the "Putin - Trump meeting". The US dollar jumped on Thursday and gave back most of the gains on Friday [3] - As of last Thursday, the total built - in production capacity of metallurgical - grade alumina in China was 110.32 million tons per year, and the total operating production capacity was 91.79 million tons per year. The weekly operating rate of alumina increased by 0.63 percentage points to 83.20% [4] - Last week, the overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.8 percentage points to 59.5%, showing a mild recovery trend. In sub - fields, the operating rates of primary aluminum alloy, aluminum plate and strip, aluminum cable, aluminum profile, and aluminum foil increased, while that of recycled aluminum decreased slightly [4] - On August 18, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 607,000 tons, an increase of 19,000 tons from last Thursday and 20,000 tons from last Monday [4]

晨报 煤焦 煤焦：市场情绪反复 盘面震荡运行 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 地址：北京市海淀区海淀大街 8 号 19 层 ☎ 400-700-6700 www.zgfcc.com 成文时间： 2025 年 8 月 18 日 逻辑：上周，交易所收紧焦煤 2601 合约开仓限制，并提高日内交易 手续费，平抑市场情绪，焦煤价格冲高回落，随后震荡幅度减弱。周末期 间美国特朗普政府宣布扩大对钢铁和铝进口征收 50%关税的范围，预计在 情绪上对盘面形成冲击。现货端，部分煤矿点高价资源成交乏力，价格出 现回调；焦 ...

负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 煤焦：焦炭第 6 轮提涨落地 盘面承压运行 投资咨询业务资格： 晨报 煤焦 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 近日大商所发布对焦煤期货的交易限额通知，非期货公司会员或者客 户在焦煤期货 JM2601 合约上单日开仓量不得超过 1,000 手，在焦煤期货 JM2509 合约上单日开仓量不得超过 500 手，在焦煤期货其他合约上单日 开仓量不得超过 2,000 手。另外，对焦煤 01 合约的日内投机交易手续费 率由成交额的万分之 1 调整为万分之 2。交易规则收紧促使焦煤市场情绪 有所降温。 基本面上，煤矿核查超产政策正在推进中，叠加临近 9 月大阅兵，安 监形势严峻，短期煤矿生产以稳为主。焦煤结构性库存压力得到明显缓解， 但随着煤价抬升，下游采购节奏已有所放缓，本周矿端库存低位企稳。据 Mysteel 调研，预计下周煤矿仍大概率延续复产节奏，但在多重因素扰动 之下，煤矿增产进度缓慢，且疲软的增产进度极易受到突发事件的冲击而 中断。本 ...

Report Overview 1) Industry Investment Rating - No clear industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move down with a weak trend, and the aluminum price is expected to run at a high level. The finished products are expected to be in a state of shock and consolidation, while the aluminum price is expected to have short - term range fluctuations [1][3][4]. 3) Summary by Related Content Finished Products - Yunnan - Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises' Spring Festival shutdown is from mid - January, with an expected impact on the total output of 741,000 tons. Anhui's 6 short - process steel mills have different shutdown times, with a daily impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [2][3]. - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities decreased by 40.3% month - on - month and increased by 43.2% year - on - year [3]. - The price of finished products continued to decline, hitting a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand and pessimistic market sentiment, the price center continued to move down. Winter storage was sluggish this year, with weak price support [3]. - The view is that the finished products will run in a state of shock and consolidation, and later attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [3]. Aluminum - Macro - level: The US data on Thursday triggered market concerns about the inflation and the interest - rate cut process. Traders tend to expect a 25 - basis - point cut next month and another 25 - basis - point cut in October [2]. - Fundamentals: As of Thursday, the national metallurgical alumina's total built capacity is 110.32 million tons/year, and the total operating capacity is 91.79 million tons/year. The weekly operating rate increased by 0.63 percentage points to 83.20%. The domestic aluminum downstream processing enterprises' operating rate increased slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 58.7%. The aluminum cable operating rate remained stable at 61.8%. The total output of aluminum rods in July was 360,500 tons, a decrease of 29,600 tons from June. The operating rate of aluminum rod manufacturers was only 53.2%, a decrease of 6.89% month - on - month and 6.7% year - on - year [3]. - Inventory: On August 14, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 588,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons from Monday and 24,000 tons from last Thursday [3]. - Outlook: The macro - level interest - rate cut expectation supports the price. The short - term aluminum price is boosted by mine - end news. It is expected to run at a high level in the near future. The 8 - month aluminum rod supply - demand pattern is expected to improve, but attention should be paid to macro - sentiment, mine - end news, etc. [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term fluctuations are significant, and it is advisable to try long positions on pullbacks. Later, attention should be paid to macro - policies, supply - side production cuts, and downstream demand [4]. Group 3: Summary by Content Steel Production and Inventory - According to Steel Union's weekly data, the output of rebar decreased by 0.73 million tons to 2.2045 million tons, the output of hot - rolled coils increased by 0.7 million tons to 3.1559 million tons, and the total output of five major steel products increased by 2.42 million tons to 8.7163 million tons. The total inventory of rebar increased by 30.51 million tons to 5.8719 million tons, the total inventory of hot - rolled coils increased by 0.84 million tons to 3.5747 million tons, and the total inventory of five major steel products increased by 40.61 million tons to 14.1597 million tons [3]. Steel Apparent Demand - The apparent demand for rebar decreased by 20.85 million tons to 1.8994 million tons, the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils increased by 8.54 million tons to 3.1475 million tons, and the apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 14.72 million tons to 8.3102 million tons [3]. Production Line Operation in Tangshan - Among the 87 section steel production lines in Tangshan, 31 were actually in operation, with an overall operating rate of 52.54%, a 10.17% increase from last week, and a capacity utilization rate of 48.34%, a 6.82% increase from last week [3]. Steel Price Movement - The decline in raw fuels continues to drive down the price of finished steel. The rapid accumulation of the inventory of five major steel products and the decrease in apparent demand lead to weak performance of steel prices during the day session. The weekly fundamentals of rebar are weaker than those of hot - rolled coils, with a decline of nearly 2%, and the main contract fell below 3200. The weak downstream situation is difficult to improve in the short term. The market is mainly dominated by macro - sentiment in the short term, and the expectation of production restrictions in Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei still exists [3].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2) Core Views - The finished products are expected to move in a range-bound manner with a downward shift in the price center and weak performance, and the focus should be on macro policies and downstream demand [2][4]. - The aluminum ingot market is in a off - season with a slight accumulation of inventory. The price is expected to be in a short - term range - bound oscillation, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and mining - end news [2][5]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises will have a shutdown and maintenance period from mid - January, with a production impact of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills will also shut down, affecting daily production by about 16,200 tons [3][4]. - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [4]. - The price of finished products continued to decline, reaching a new low. The market sentiment is pessimistic due to the weak supply - demand situation, and winter storage is sluggish, providing little price support [4]. Aluminum and Related Products - On August 10, the Shanxi Natural Resources Department adjusted the registration authority for some mineral transfers, which boosted the alumina futures. However, alumina is in an oversupply situation, and the price is under pressure [4]. - The impact on domestic bauxite supply from non - resumption of domestic mines is currently minimal, and the development of the news should be continuously monitored [4]. - Last week, the operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.1 percentage points to 58.7%. The aluminum cable operating rate remained stable at 61.8%, and it is expected to rise slightly in mid - August [4]. - In July, the total output of aluminum rods was 360,500 tons, a decrease of 29,600 tons from June. The operating rate was 53.2%, a 6.89% month - on - month and 6.7% year - on - year decrease. The supply - demand situation is expected to improve in August [4]. - On August 14, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 588,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons from Monday and 24,000 tons from last Thursday [4].

负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 成文时间： 2025 年 8 月 14 日 晨报 煤焦 煤焦：交易所调整交易规则 盘面波动加剧 投资咨询业务资格： 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 重要声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开的资料，我公司对信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证，也不保证包含的信 息和建议不会发生变更，我们已力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中观点、结论和建议仅供参考，投资者据此 做出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关。 地址：北京市海淀区海淀大街 8 号 19 层 ☎ 400-700-6700 www.zgfcc.com 逻辑：昨日，焦煤期货价格震荡回 ...