晨报 煤焦 成文时间： 2025 年 11 月 19 日 逻辑：昨日煤焦期价震荡下行，焦煤近月合约跌幅超 4.0%，夜盘延 续弱势，贴水现货运行，弱交割逻辑拖累近月价格。现货市场总体弱稳， 个别煤种价格回调。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 煤焦：市场情绪偏弱 盘面承压运行 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 从基本面来看，上周山西多地煤矿产量恢复，短期煤矿仍有增产预期， 而下游采购节奏放缓，采购积极性下滑，虽然多数煤矿库存压力不大，但 煤矿原煤库存止降回升，后期煤价上涨将稍显乏力。精煤日均产量 75. ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recently, iron ore has rebounded from its bottom. The main reasons are the marginal improvement in the supply - demand relationship and inventory data of rebar, the recovery of hot metal production due to the weakening impact of environmental protection restrictions in North China, and the relatively high basis of iron ore, which provides a basis for price rebound [3] - In the short - term, there is a lack of macro - drivers. The peak of foreign ore supply has passed, and the shipping volume and arrival volume are expected to decline gradually. On the demand side, the hot metal production fluctuates in the short - term but will show a downward trend this year. The inventory will tend to accumulate, but the inventory level at the steel mill is low, and the basis rate and internal - external price difference are large. The current price is expected to be at a neutral position and will mainly fluctuate within a range [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - The weekly shipping volume of foreign ores has been increasing continuously on a week - on - week basis, with significant increases in shipments from Australia and Brazil, but the arrival volume has dropped significantly on a week - on - week basis. According to seasonal patterns and the shipping targets of major mines this year, the peak of foreign ore supply may have passed, and the supply pressure may decline on a week - on - week basis later [3] Demand - Domestic demand has increased on a week - on - week basis. After the lifting of production restrictions in Hebei, it has returned to full production. In this period, 7 blast furnaces were newly overhauled and 5 were restarted. Blast furnace overhauls mainly occurred in Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, Jiangxi, etc. due to weak demand and losses; blast furnace restarts mainly occurred in Southwest, Northeast, Hebei, and Henan. The blast furnace in Southwest restarted after a long - term shutdown and is expected to be shut down for maintenance by the end of the year, while other regions restarted after the end of scheduled overhauls. Overall, the blast furnace operating rate and profitability have been continuously declining due to environmental protection and weak terminal demand, but the decline rate is not high. With steel mills entering the seasonal restocking cycle, domestic iron ore demand is expected to remain resilient [3] Price - The price operates within a range. The main contract of Dalian iron ore futures is in the range of 765 - 790 yuan/ton, corresponding to an external market price of about 103.5 - 105.0 US dollars/ton [3] Strategy - Adopt range - bound operations and sell call options [3]

成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 晨报 煤焦 煤焦：盘面承压运行 关注需求变化 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 观点：短期国内煤矿产量小幅修复，蒙煤通关量回升显著；需求小幅 波动，注意淡季压力向原材料端的传导。焦煤价格尚在 1100-1300 元/吨 区间内运行。 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 11 月 18 日 从基本面来看，上周山西多地煤矿产量恢复，短期煤矿仍有增产预期， 而下游采购节奏放缓，采购积极性下滑，虽然多数煤矿库存压力不大，但 煤矿原煤库存止降回升，后期煤价上涨将稍显乏力。精煤日均产量 75.7 万吨，环比前一周增加 1.9 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating [1][3][4] Group 2: Core Views - The view on finished products is that they will operate in a range - bound consolidation, with the price center of gravity moving down and weak operation, and the market is pessimistic in the context of weak supply and demand, and this year's winter storage is sluggish [1][3] - The view on aluminum ingots is that the price is expected to adjust at a high level in the short term, with the downstream being differentiated in the off - season and the price under pressure for adjustment. The market presents a structurally differentiated trend [1][3][4] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Finished Products - In the Yungui region, short - process construction steel enterprises will stop production for maintenance from mid - January, and the resumption time is expected to be around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills has stopped production on January 5, and most of the others will stop around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] - In the context of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, the price center of gravity moves down, and this year's winter storage is sluggish, with weak price support [3] Aluminum Alumina - The alumina market has a continuous supply - surplus pattern, the decline of spot prices has slowed but not stopped, and the industry profit is shrinking. Some high - cost enterprises in the Jin and Yu regions are facing losses, resulting in a 17,000 - ton week - on - week decrease in production. The total inventory has reached 4.793 million tons, intensifying the supply - demand contradiction [3] Aluminum Water and Downstream - The SMM weekly aluminum water ratio last week was 77.25%, a 0.5 - percentage - point decrease from the previous period. Some sectors are in the transition from peak to off - season, and the aluminum price increase has put pressure on downstream processing fees, leading to production cuts in some processing enterprises [3] - The overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.4 percentage points to 62% last week. The SMM expects the operating rate of the aluminum downstream processing industry to show a differentiated trend in the short term, with grid orders supporting the slight recovery of aluminum cables, while aluminum sheets, strips, and foils are likely to decline due to environmental protection and the off - season [3] - On November 17, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 646,000 tons, an increase of 25,000 tons from last Thursday and 19,000 tons from last Monday [3] Price Outlook - Macro factors have a mixed impact, and the market still expects a tightening of overseas supply. However, with the arrival of the off - season in China, the downstream is weakening, and the pressure of inventory accumulation is increasing. The price is expected to have a short - term correction space [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views - The finished products are expected to run in a volatile and consolidating manner, with the price center of gravity moving downward and running weakly [1][3] - The aluminum ingot price is expected to remain high in the short - term, with the price facing pressure when rising due to downstream differentiation in the off - season [1][4] 3. Summary by Related Content Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises will have a shutdown and maintenance period during the Spring Festival from mid - January, with an expected impact on the total construction steel output of 741,000 tons. Six short - process steel mills in Anhui, one started to shut down on January 5, and most of the rest will shut down around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% week - on - week decrease and a 43.2% year - on - year increase [3] - The finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, hitting a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the winter storage is sluggish this year, providing little price support [3] Aluminum Ingots - Last week, Shanghai aluminum showed a relatively strong performance. The US dollar index fell for two consecutive weeks, and the longest - running government shutdown in US history ended on Thursday, resulting in a lack of key economic data for policy - making [2] - Domestically, the supply of electrolytic aluminum remains stable. Overseas, the resumption of production in Guinea's mines is difficult, and there is an expectation of supply tightening due to the approaching heating season in the north [3] - Last week, the SMM weekly aluminum water ratio was 77.25%, a 0.5 - percentage - point decrease. The overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.4 percentage points to 62%. The SMM expects the operating rate of the aluminum downstream processing industry to show a differentiated trend in the short term [3] - On November 13, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in the domestic mainstream consumption areas was 621,000 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons compared to Monday and 1,000 tons compared to last Thursday. The premium of the US spot aluminum price has reached a record high [3] - There is a strong positive macro - atmosphere, and the expected tightening of overseas supply gives funds the motivation to go long. However, the off - season is coming, and the downstream is weakening, with increased inventory pressure [4]

煤焦：焦价提涨陆续落地 盘面震荡运行 晨报 煤焦 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从基本面来看，上周山西多地煤矿产量恢复，短期煤矿仍有增产预期， 而下游采购节奏放缓，采购积极性下滑，虽然多数煤矿库存压力不大，但 煤矿原煤库存止降回升，后期煤价上涨将稍显乏力。精煤日均产量 75.7 万吨，环比前一周增加 1.9 万吨，同比下降 3.3 万吨。进口端，上周 （11.10-11.15）甘其毛都口岸蒙煤日均通关量 17.45 万吨，较前一周下 降 2.07 万吨，总体仍保持相对高位，口岸监管区呈现增库趋势。需求端， 钢厂利润延续收缩趋势，盈利率降至 40%以下，近期唐山地区阶段性限产 政策解除，促使铁水产量回升，上周日均铁水产量回升至 236.88 万吨，较 前一周增加 2.66 万吨，后期关注钢厂盈利情况及钢厂生产节奏变化。 原材料：程 鹏 观点：短期国内煤矿产量小幅修复，蒙煤通关量回升显著；需求小幅 波动，注意淡 ...

Group 1 - Report industry investment rating: Callback operation [3] - Core view of the report: The weekly fundamentals of finished products changed little, and steel prices consolidated. The prices will run in a callback. Pay attention to macro - policies and downstream demand in the later stage [1][2][3] Group 2 - Summary according to relevant content: The market supervision department will strengthen anti - monopoly and anti - unfair competition law enforcement. This week, the supply of five major steel products was 8.3438 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 223,600 tons, a decline of 2.6%; the total inventory was 14.7734 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 262,300 tons, a decline of 1.7%. The weekly apparent consumption of five major steel products was 8.606 billion tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.7%; among them, building material consumption decreased by 1.3%, and plate consumption decreased by 0.4%. In early November 2025, the average daily output of crude steel of key steel enterprises was 1.926 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.0%; the steel inventory was 15.49 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.9% compared with the previous ten - day period and a decrease of 2.5% compared with the same ten - day period last month. The finished products continued to consolidate yesterday with little fluctuation. The weekly data released by Steel Union was neutral, with both output and apparent demand decreasing. As the weather gets colder, the downstream market is weak. Rebar still has support at the 3000 level. Steel prices are consolidating in a narrow range [2]

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - Short - term domestic coal mine production shows a slight recovery, and the Mongolian coal customs clearance volume has significantly increased; demand fluctuates slightly, and attention should be paid to the transmission of off - season pressure to the raw material end. The coking coal price is still operating within the range of 1100 - 1300 yuan/ton [3] Group 3: Summary According to the Content Market Performance - Yesterday, the coking coal and coke futures prices fluctuated weakly. In the spot market, steel mills in some regions accepted the fourth round of coke price increases [3] Production and Supply - This week, coal mine production in many parts of Shanxi has recovered, and there is still an expectation of short - term coal mine production increase. The daily output of clean coal is 75.7 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.9 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 3.3 tons. Last week (11.3 - 11.8), the average daily customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port increased to 19.52 tons, an increase of 3.09 tons compared with the previous week, and the port supervision area shows an inventory increase trend [3] Demand - The profit of steel mills continues to shrink, and the profitability rate drops below 40%. This week, the daily average pig iron output has rebounded to 236.88 tons, an increase of 2.66 tons compared with the previous week. The phased production restriction policy in the Tangshan area has been lifted recently, which promotes the rebound of pig iron output [3] Price - The coking coal price is still operating within the range of 1100 - 1300 yuan/ton [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, with its price center continuing to shift downward in a weak supply - demand situation and low winter storage [1][2] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to be strong in the short - term, running at a high level with fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the macro - sentiment, mine - end news, and high - level pressure [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises will have a shutdown and maintenance period from mid - January, with a resumption around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total of 741,000 tons of construction steel production [1] - Six short - process steel mills in Anhui: one stopped production on January 5, most will stop around mid - January, and a few after January 20, affecting a daily output of about 16,200 tons [2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% week - on - week decrease and a 43.2% year - on - year increase [2] - The price of finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner, reaching a new low. With weak supply and demand and pessimistic market sentiment, the price center shifted downward. Winter storage was sluggish this year, providing weak price support [2] Aluminum Ingots - Shanghai aluminum showed a strong performance. With the US government reopening, the US dollar fell, and traders were waiting for economic data [1] - Domestically, the supply of electrolytic aluminum was stable. Overseas, an aluminum plant in Iceland cut production due to electrical equipment failure, and a plant in Mozambique might cut or stop production due to an energy agreement issue, leading to an expected supply tightening [2] - This week, the SMM weekly aluminum - water ratio was 77.25%, a 0.5 - percentage - point week - on - week decrease. The overall starting rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises rose 0.4 percentage points to 62%, showing a structural differentiation [2] - On November 13, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 621,000 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons from Monday and 1,000 tons from last Thursday [2] - The premium of the US spot aluminum price reached a record high due to high import tariffs and global supply tightness [2] - With a positive macro - environment and expected overseas supply tightening, a large amount of funds flowed into Shanghai aluminum futures, driving up the price. The pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic continued. However, with the arrival of the off - season, the downstream was weakening, and the pressure of inventory accumulation was increasing [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic and international macro environment is in a vacuum, with the core focus of the fundamentals on the domestic demand side. The supply side remains stable with a slight increase. Currently in the seasonal production - reduction period, overall demand is on a marginal decline. However, considering the low inventory level at the steel - mill end, large basis rate, and significant internal - external price difference, the current price is expected to be at a relatively low level. In the short term, there's no need to be overly pessimistic. Overall, the price is expected to move down but remain range - bound [2]. - The price is expected to operate within a range. The main contract of Dalian Iron Ore Futures is expected to be in the range of 750 - 785 yuan/ton, corresponding to an external market price of about 100.5 - 104.5 US dollars/ton. The strategy is to conduct range operations and sell put options [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - External iron ore shipments declined on a week - on - week basis but remained at a high level year - on - year, with the supply - side support remaining weak. As of the week ending November 10, the total global iron ore shipments were 3,069.0 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 144.8 million tons. The total shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2,548.6 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 210.6 million tons. From the perspective of the 5 - week average shipments, the global iron ore shipments were 3,242.3 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 216 million tons. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2,797.6 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 295.3 million tons [2]. Demand - The loss - making range of domestic blast - furnace steel mills continues to expand. In addition, environmental protection restrictions in Handan have been tightened, leading to an increase in the number of blast - furnace overhauls. Multiple regions such as Shanxi, Shaanxi, Jiangsu, and Northeast China have seen a decline in demand and losses. Although the number of blast - furnace restarts in North China has increased, due to the sintering restriction policy in North China, the blast - furnace operating rate has increased while the molten iron output has decreased. Overall, domestic iron ore demand has shown a trend of decline due to environmental protection factors and shrinking production profits, which is in line with the seasonal production - reduction pattern. There is also an expectation of seasonal production cuts by steel mills in regions such as Xinjiang in the later stage. It is likely that the molten iron output will continue to decline slowly [2]. Inventory - Under the pattern of strong supply and weak demand, the inventory at domestic ports has continued to accumulate. In the short term, the pressure on the supply side remains, and although the decline rate of the demand side may slow down, it is still in a downward cycle. As of November 7, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports across the country was 14,898.83 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 356.35 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 370.23 million tons [2].