Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The market expectation of lithium carbonate has warmed up, and the disk has stabilized in shock. It is recommended to hold a light position and wait and see before the Spring Festival, as there are still many uncertainties [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - The main contract of lithium carbonate futures closed at 137,340 yuan/ton, with the trading volume dropping to 295,200 lots and the open interest increasing to 345,900 lots. The net short position of the main funds continued, and the long - short ratio of the net position increased month - on - month. The daily inventory of lithium carbonate on the GZFE increased by 940 lots to 35,537 lots. The average price of SMM electric carbon was 136,000 yuan/ton, and the price difference between electric and industrial carbon was 3,500 yuan/ton. The Spring Festival stockpiling is almost over, with most enterprises having a low psychological purchase price, being cautious and waiting and seeing, and the market inquiry and trading being relatively light [3]. Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: Last week, the raw material market generally declined. The SMM total weekly operating rate was 47.29% (-2.21%), and the operating rates of all processes except lithium mica decreased. The SMM weekly total output was 20,744 tons (-825 tons) [4]. - **Demand**: Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials decreased slightly month - on - month, and the inventory was destocked. As of January 18, the penetration rate of new energy vehicle sales increased to 55.6%, remaining at a relatively high level. The energy - storage battery cells performed strongly, with both production and sales booming and low inventory [4]. - **Inventory**: According to SMM data, last week, the social inventory of the four - place samples increased by 3.73% month - on - month to 43,050 tons, the weekly inventory of the samples decreased by 2,019 tons to 105,463 tons, the total inventory days increased to 30 days, and the downstream inventory days increased to 11.8 days (+9.26% month - on - month), showing passive inventory accumulation, structural differentiation, and poor transmission [4]. Macro - policy Analysis - **Demand - side**: Multiple incentives such as subsidies for trading in old cars for new ones and tax rebates for battery exports stimulate terminal consumption and improve macro - liquidity [5]. - **Supply - side**: On January 15, the National Development and Reform Commission proposed to introduce management measures for the comprehensive utilization of new energy vehicle power batteries, which will improve the recycling threshold and eliminate backward production capacity, optimize the domestic supply structure in the long term, and raise the cost support center [5]. - **Industrial Planning**: The industrial planning of Qinghai Salt Lake, the key points of energy - storage during the 15th Five - Year Plan period, and a series of deployments of the Central Economic Work Conference form synergistic benefits to support the long - term supply - demand balance [5]. - **Macro - environment**: The central bank's structural interest rate cut indirectly strengthens the long - term macro - positive atmosphere [5].

晨报 铝锭 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：淡季库存积累 价格区间震荡 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:昨日沪铝区间震荡。宏观上美联储洛根表示，美联储的政策立场 恰到好处；美联储的政策立场可能接近中性水平，既不刺激也不抑制经济 活动。 以伊冲突 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万 ...

晨报 碳酸锂 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 碳酸锂：弱现实与成本下行博弈，盘面震荡整理 以伊冲突 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 原材料：程 鹏 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 基本面来看，供应端上周来看，原料市场普跌，SMM 总周度开工率 47.29%（-2.21%），除锂云母外，其他工艺开工率均下降；SMM 周度总产 量 20744 吨（-825 吨）。需求端上周数据显示，铁锂、三元产量环比微降， 库存去化；截至 1 月 18 日，SMM 新能源车销量渗透率上升至 55.6%，保 持相对高位；储能电芯表现强劲，产销两旺且库存低位。库存端 SMM 数据 ...

晨报 成材 成材：弱需求下 钢价延续震荡寻底 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2026 年 2 月 10 日 逻辑：商务部召开汽车企业座谈会，研究汽车流通消费有关工作。2026 年，我国将优化实施汽车以旧换新，开展汽车流通消费改革试点，完善行 业管理制度，多措并举推动汽车消费扩容提质。据乘联分会，2025 年轻 型商用车完成 290.1 万辆，同比增长 6.5%，2026 年全年销量小幅微增 0.3%，全年销量有望达到 291.1 万辆左右。2 月 9 日，76 家独立电弧炉建 筑钢材钢厂平均成本为 3358 元/吨，环比上周五减少 20 元/吨，平均利润 亏损 83 元/吨，谷电利润为 24 元/吨。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 成材昨日震荡走弱，价格整体波幅不大，但继续向下创出近期新低。 下游需求低迷仍是拖累钢价的关键。随着春节假期临近，现货端逐步进入 假期节奏。节前或仍有资金 ...

负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 晨报 煤焦 煤焦：情绪偏低迷 盘面弱势震荡 投资咨询业务资格： 成文时间： 2026 年 2 月 10 日 逻辑：昨日，煤焦期货价格震荡小幅收涨，夜盘价格再度走弱。近日 钢矿整体走势偏弱，叠加季节性淡季，抑制煤焦反弹高度。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 从基上面来看，上周国内煤矿陆续开始停产放假，据 Mysteel 调研， 云南、山西晋中等地煤矿放假较早，产量下滑较为明显，本周农历腊月二 十三左右，将进入民营煤矿放假高峰期，停产煤矿激增，产量将大幅下滑。 上周原煤、精煤日产 192.5 万吨、75.5 万吨，分别环比下降 5.3 万吨、 1.6 万吨。煤减量预期对煤价存在一定支撑，不过减产基本符合往年规律， 下游已提前备货，不具备持续上涨驱动。进口端，上周蒙煤甘其毛都口岸 日通关量略有下降。需求端，钢厂生产相对平稳，日均铁水产量维持 228 万吨左右。 原材料：程 鹏 观点：当前煤焦供需矛盾一般，黑色金属市场整体情绪偏弱，价格偏 弱是运行，节前最后一周，注意持仓风险控制。 后期关注/风险因素：关注焦 ...

【华宝期货】有色金属周报 华宝期货 2026.2.9 目录 01 有色周度行情回顾 02 本周有色行情预判 03 品种数据（铝、锌、锡、碳酸锂） 以上内容谨代表个人观点，投资者据此做出的任何投资决策与华宝期货有限公司和作者无关，据此入市交易，风险自负！投资有风险，入市需谨慎！ 周度行情回顾 以上内容谨代表个人观点，投资者据此做出的任何投资决策与华宝期货有限公司和作者无关，据此入市交易，风险自负！投资有风险，入市需谨慎！ | 品种 | | | 期货主力合约收盘价格 | | | 现货价格 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2026. 2.6 | 2026. 1. 30 | 周变动 | 周张跌幅 | | 2026.2.6 | 2026. 1. 30 | 周变动 | 周张跌幅 | | 铜 | CU2603 | 100100 | 103680 | -3280 | -3. 45% | 中国:平均价:铜:上海物贸 | 100350 | 104460 | -4110 | -3.93% | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall black market is expected to operate in a low - level consolidation. Steel products show a seasonal situation of weak supply and demand, and there may still be capital outflows before the Spring Festival, leading to a decrease in market trading volume. The macro - level is calm and has little impact on prices [12]. - For iron ore, it is recommended to mainly short - allocate. The macro - level driving force has weakened, the supply - demand contradiction has continued to accumulate in the short term, and the price is restricted by the industrial chain profit. The strategy is to conduct range operations and sell out - of - the - money call options [13]. - For coal and coke, the current supply - demand contradiction in the market is general, and the inventory pressure is not large, providing some support for prices. However, due to the off - season effect, there is no continuous upward driving force, and prices fluctuate with market sentiment. Prudent operation is required [14]. - For ferroalloys, before the Spring Festival, the market trading is cold. The alloy fundamentals remain in a situation of weak supply and demand, and there is still inventory pressure. It is expected that the prices will follow the black market and fluctuate within a narrow range before the Spring Festival [16] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Market Review - The closing prices of most futures and spot products in the black industry chain decreased from January 30 to February 6, 2026, except for the scrap steel whose price index increased by 0.61%. For example, the futures price of rebar RB2605 decreased by 1.63%, and the spot price of HRB400E: Φ20 in Shanghai decreased by 0.92% [8] 3.2 This Week's Black Market Forecast Overall Market - Logic: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills increased, and the average daily hot - metal output also increased. The average capacity utilization rate of 94 independent electric - arc furnace steel mills decreased. As the Spring Festival approaches, the spot market enters the holiday mode, showing a seasonal situation of weak supply and demand. There may be capital outflows before the festival, and the macro - level has little impact on prices [12]. - View: Low - level consolidation [12] Iron Ore - Logic: Macroscopically, the short - term inflation expectation has declined, and the employment has weakened marginally. The domestic economic recovery shows a pulsed characteristic. In terms of supply, although the external ore shipment is in the off - season, it is higher than the same period in previous years. The domestic ore supply is also in the off - season. In terms of demand, the domestic demand has slightly recovered, but the steel mill's profitability is weak, and the terminal demand is in the seasonal off - season. The steel mill's restocking is coming to an end, and the port inventory is at a high level [13]. - View: Short - allocate mainly, conduct range operations and sell out - of - the - money call options [13] Coal and Coke - Logic: The coal and coke futures prices first rose and then fell due to the false rumor of production quota cuts in Indonesia. Recently, the overall trend of steel and ore has been weak, and the off - season restricts the rebound height. The domestic coal mines are starting to shut down for the holiday, and the output is expected to decline significantly. However, the downstream has stocked up in advance, and there is no continuous upward driving force [14]. - View: The supply - demand contradiction is general, and the inventory pressure is not large, providing support for prices. But due to the off - season, there is no continuous upward driving force, and prices fluctuate with market sentiment. Prudent operation is required [14] Ferroalloys - Logic: Overseas, the US manufacturing PMI has entered the expansion range, but the geopolitical situation in the Middle East is tense. Domestically, the three major PMI indices have declined. The prices of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon futures have slightly declined. In terms of supply, the output and operating rate of ferromanganese have slightly shrunk, and those of ferrosilicon have slightly increased. In terms of demand, the demand from steel mills has weakened, and the restocking is coming to an end. In terms of inventory, the inventory of ferromanganese has increased, and that of ferrosilicon has decreased slightly. In terms of cost, the manganese ore price is expected to remain firm, and the cost of ferrosilicon is well - supported [17]. - View: Before the Spring Festival, the market trading is cold. The alloy fundamentals remain in a situation of weak supply and demand, and there is still inventory pressure. It is expected that the prices will follow the black market and fluctuate within a narrow range before the Spring Festival [17] 3.3 Variety Data 3.3.1 Finished Products - **Rebar** - Production: The weekly output last week was 191.68 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 8.15 and a year - on - year increase of 7.88. The long - process output was 162.81 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.81 and a year - on - year decrease of 18.79. The short - process output was 28.87 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.34 and a year - on - year increase of 26.67 [20][23]. - Apparent demand: Last week, it was 147.64 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 28.76 and a year - on - year increase of 16.09 [20]. - Inventory: The social inventory was 365.92 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 39.52 and a year - on - year decrease of 119.45. The steel mill inventory was 153.65 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.52 and a year - on - year decrease of 66.36. The total inventory was 519.57 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 44.04 and a year - on - year decrease of 185.81 [27]. - Basis: In Shanghai, the basis for January was 62 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 23 and a year - on - year increase of 72; for May, it was 143 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 21 and a year - on - year increase of 88; for October, it was 96 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 23 and a year - on - year increase of 96 [38]. - **Hot - rolled Coil** - Production: The weekly output last week was 309.16 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.05 and a year - on - year decrease of 14.97 [31]. - Apparent demand: Last week, it was 305.54 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.87 and a year - on - year increase of 7.11 [31]. - Inventory: The social inventory was 280.45 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.12 and a year - on - year decrease of 36.92. The steel mill inventory was 78.75 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.50 and a year - on - year decrease of 18.20. The total inventory was 359.20 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.62 and a year - on - year decrease of 55.12 [35]. - Basis: In Shanghai, the basis for January was - 44 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 22 and a year - on - year increase of 34; for May, it was - 1 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 17 and a year - on - year decrease of 4; for October, it was - 19 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 22 and a year - on - year increase of 18 [45] 3.3.2 Iron Ore - Imported ore port inventory (45 ports): The total inventory this week was 17140.71 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 118.45 and a year - on - year increase of 1748.18. The Australian ore inventory was 7903.27 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 104.08 and a year - on - year increase of 1155.26. The Brazilian ore inventory was 5536.43 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 47.54 and a year - on - year decrease of 427.29 [49]. - 247 steel mills' imported ore inventory/consumption: The inventory was 10316.64 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 348.05 and a year - on - year increase of 821.90. The inventory - to - sales ratio was 36.55, a week - on - week increase of 1.07 and a year - on - year increase of 3.36. The daily consumption was 282.24 million tons/day, a week - on - week increase of 1.28 and a year - on - year decrease of 2.93 [60]. - 247 steel mills' operating rate/profitability: The blast furnace operating rate was 79.53%, a week - on - week increase of 0.53 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.55 percentage points. The iron - making utilization rate was 85.69%, a week - on - week increase of 0.22 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.07 percentage points. The profitability rate was 39.39%, unchanged from the previous week and a year - on - year decrease of 12.13 percentage points [64]. - Global shipments (19 ports): The total global shipment this week was 2535.3 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 559.3 and a year - on - year increase of 200.4. The shipment from Australia and Brazil to the world was 1881.1 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 585.4 and a year - on - year decrease of 17.0 [68] 3.3.3 Coal and Coke - Coke inventory: The total inventory (coke enterprises + steel mills + ports) last week was 976.2 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 15.53 and a year - on - year decrease of 48.7. The independent coke enterprises' inventory was 82.7 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.7 and a year - on - year decrease of 74.0 [93]. - Coking coal inventory: The total inventory (coke enterprises + steel mills + coal mines + ports + coal washing plants) last week was 2998.56 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 84.18 and a year - on - year increase of 80.0 [100]. - Independent coke enterprises' average profit per ton of coke: Last week, it was - 10 yuan, a week - on - week increase of 45 and a year - on - year increase of 17 [105]. - Independent coke enterprises' capacity utilization rate and daily coke output: The capacity utilization rate last week was 72.2%, a week - on - week increase of 0.3 and a year - on - year decrease of 0.8. The daily coke output was 63.1 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.3 and a year - on - year decrease of 1.93 [109] 3.3.4 Ferroalloys - Spot prices: On February 6, the price of semi - carbonate manganese ore in Tianjin Port was 36 yuan/dry ton degree, unchanged from the previous week and a year - on - year decrease of 5. The spot price of ferromanganese in Inner Mongolia was 6520 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 820 and a year - on - year increase of 120. The spot price of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia was 5370 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 40 and a year - on - year decrease of 680 [132]. - Manganese ore inventory: In the week of January 30, the total port inventory was 435.7 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 10.9 and a year - on - year increase of 42.3. The inventory in Tianjin Port was 332.5 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.5 and a year - on - year decrease of 4.8 [136]. - Output: The weekly output of ferromanganese was 190995 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1400 and a year - on - year decrease of 2345. The weekly output of ferrosilicon was 9.92 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.07 and a year - on - year decrease of 1.11 [139][141]. - Demand: The weekly demand for ferromanganese from five major steel products was 116059 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1161 and a year - on - year increase of 2251. The weekly demand for ferrosilicon was 18497.7 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 261 and a year - on - year increase of 621 [143]. - Inventory: On February 6, the inventory of ferromanganese was 377800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3500 and a year - on - year increase of 227300. The inventory of ferrosilicon was 66860 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1040 and a year - on - year decrease of 9380 [147]

晨报 煤焦 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2026 年 2 月 9 日 煤焦：煤产量季节性下滑 盘面震荡运行 逻辑：上周，煤焦期货价格受印尼削减生产配额传闻刺激，价格拉涨， 但随后削减信息被官方认定为无效信息，煤焦期货价格先扬后抑。近日钢 矿整体走势偏弱，叠加季节性淡季，抑制煤焦反弹高度。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 投资咨询业务资格： 从基上面来看，上周国内煤矿陆续开始停产放假，据 Mysteel 调研， 云南、山西晋中等地煤矿放假较早，产量下滑较为明显，本周农历腊月二 十三左右，将进入民营煤矿放假 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The price of finished products is expected to move downward with a weak trend and fluctuate and consolidate. The price of aluminum ingots is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment [1][2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises will stop production for maintenance from mid - January, and resume production around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting 741,000 tons of construction steel output. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5, and most others will stop around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2] - Finished products continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the price center continues to move down. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing weak price support [2] Aluminum Ingots - Last week, Shanghai aluminum pulled back from its high. The US threat to impose tariffs on countries involved in Iranian trade will disrupt global trade flows and suppress risk appetite. The central bank carried out reverse repurchases to supplement liquidity, alleviating the panic in the domestic commodity market [2] - Domestically, Shanxi's bauxite production has resumed actively, with sufficient supply and falling prices. For imported ore, the intended transaction price has decreased, and the market is quiet. Some alumina plants are cautious in purchasing [2] - In January, China's electrolytic aluminum output increased by 2.7% year - on - year and 0.5% month - on - month. Last week, the comprehensive aluminum processing operating rate was 57.9%, a 1.5 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week, with significant differentiation among sectors [2] - The operating rate of leading aluminum plate and strip enterprises rose to 66.0%, but will decline after the completion of pre - holiday stocking. The operating rate of leading aluminum foil enterprises rose to 71.4% and will maintain a high level. The operating rate of aluminum cables dropped to 58% and will further decline. The operating rate of aluminum profiles dropped to 36.0%, but the demand for photovoltaic profiles is strong [2] - As of February 9, the social inventory of aluminum ingots reached 857,000 tons, a 40,000 - ton increase from last Monday. As the price drops, attention should be paid to downstream feedback, but it is expected that there will be no obvious improvement before the Spring Festival [2] Market as a Whole - Short - term market sentiment has eased, the linkage between precious metals and non - ferrous metals is still strong, and market trading sentiment is cautious. Prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro - expectations, geopolitical crises, mine resumption, and consumption release [3]

晨报 成材 成材：供需双弱 成材偏弱整理 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 成文时间： 2026 年 2 月 9 日 逻辑：上周，247 家钢厂高炉开工率 79.53%，环比增加 0.53 个百分 点，同比增加 1.55 个百分点；日均铁水产量 228.58 万吨，环比增加 0.60 万吨，同比增加 0.14 万吨。河北 6 市启动重污染天气Ⅱ级应急响应。石 家庄、唐山、保定、廊坊、衡水、沧州于 2 月 8 日启动重污染天气Ⅱ级应 急响应。河南冬储政策陆续出台，主流锁价 3040 元/吨，后结算模式延至 3 月底，部分钢厂选择自储或按需发货。商家冬储意愿偏低，普遍备货 1000-2000 吨，节后需求复苏预期较弱，市场整体谨慎观望。据中国工程 机械工业协会对挖掘机主要制造企业统计，2026 年 1 月销售各类挖掘机 18708 台，同比增长 49.5%。其中：国内销量 8723 台，同比增长 61.4%； 出口量 998 ...