原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 晨报 铝锭 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：美联储如期降息 库存小幅去化 成文时间： 2025 年 12 月 11 日 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 地址：北京市海淀区海淀大街 8 号 19 层 ☎ 400-700-6700 www.zgfcc.com 观点：预计价格短期偏强运行，关注宏观情绪和矿端消息。 后期关注/风险因素：关注宏观预期变动、地缘政治危机发展、矿端复 产情况、消费释放情况。 重要声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开的资料，我公司对信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证，也不保证包含的信 息和建议不会发生变 ...

晨报 成材 成材：基本面变化有限 钢价自低位反弹 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 原材料：程 鹏 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 12 月 11 日 逻辑：美联储货币政策委员会（FOMC）会后公布，降息 25 个基点，将 联邦基金利率目标区间下调至 3.50%–3.75%。这是美联储年内的第三次 降息，幅度均为 25 个基点。全球钢铁生产格局正在发生深刻变化，中日 韩因消费见顶，产量正处于下行区间，印度、东南亚、非洲和中东地区生 产呈现快速增长态势。预计 2026 年全球钢铁总供应微幅增长，增幅或在 ...

逻辑：本周在市场氛围本就偏弱的情况下，蒙煤策克口岸压力测试超 预期完成，加剧了市场偏悲观情绪，煤焦期价重心再度下移。现货市场总 体偏弱，进口蒙煤价格领跌，国内煤价跟跌；钢厂对焦炭价格完成首轮调 降，仍存提降预期。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 12 月 10 日 晨报 煤焦 煤焦：蒙煤高通关预期强化 盘面弱势震荡 投资咨询业务资格： 从基本面来看，预计焦煤供应维持相对稳定格局。国内焦煤矿生产受 保供的提振作用相对有限，在下游需求进入淡季的阶段下，焦煤产量难有 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The finished product is expected to move in a range-bound consolidation, with its price center shifting downward and showing a weak performance [1][2] - The short - term trend of lithium carbonate is expected to be range - bound, with a continued atmosphere of long - short game, and attention should be paid to marginal changes in supply and demand [1][3] Summary by Related Content Finished Product - Yunnan - Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises will stop production for maintenance from mid - January, and resume production around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons. Six short - process steel mills in Anhui, one stopped on January 5, most will stop in mid - January, and some after January 20, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [1][2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% month - on - month decrease and a 43.2% year - on - year increase [2] - The finished product price continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and this year's winter storage is sluggish, providing weak price support [2] Lithium Carbonate - Yesterday, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures LC2605 rose and then fell, closing at 92,800 yuan/ton, a 1.23% decline. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 92,750 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 50 yuan/ton, narrowing by 2,040 yuan/ton from the previous day. The trading and positions of the main contract declined slightly, and the long - short game continued but with reduced heat. The term structure shows "near - weak and far - strong" differentiation [1] - On the supply side, the resumption of Jiangxi Jianxiawo lithium mine is slow, and salt lake lithium extraction is restricted, with limited short - term supply increase. As of December 9, the lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) index was 1,165 US dollars/ton, and the production and theoretical delivery profits of purchased lithium spodumene and lithium mica are negative, which may support the bottom of the lithium carbonate futures price [2] - On the demand side, the weekly output of ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate decreased slightly, and inventory continued to decline. The weekly output of power batteries increased by 0.7%. It is predicted that the lithium iron phosphate operating rate in December will remain above 70%. The market expects the new energy vehicle purchase tax exemption policy to continue, and the overall inventory continues to decline, with downstream inventory rising slightly and terminal replenishment mainly for rigid demand [2] - The Ministry of Natural Resources has accelerated the lithium mine approval process, but the resumption of Jiangxi Jianxiawo lithium mine is still lagging, and the actual supply increase is limited. The positions of the main contract declined slightly, and the long - short game continued [3]

原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 12 月 10 日 晨报 成材 成材：弱需求叠加原料拖累 钢价向下调整 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 原材料：程 鹏 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 重要声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开的资料，我公司对信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证，也不保证包含的信 息和建议不会发生变更，我们已力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中观点、结论和建议仅供参考，投资者据此 做出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关。 地址：北京市海淀区海淀大街 8 号 19 层 ☎ 400-700-6700 www.zgfcc.com 逻辑： ...

投资咨询业务资格： 晨报 铝锭 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：淡季施压上方空间 关注美联储会议 以伊冲突 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 12 月 10 日 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 证监许可【2011】1452 号 负责人：赵 毅 逻辑:昨日沪铝高位调整。宏观上就业市场数据好于预期，凸显出在美联储 预期降息之前劳动力市场仍有韧性，决策者可能会强调通胀风险，这可能制约进 一步的宽 ...

晨报 铝锭 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：降息预期强烈 关注需求延续 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 2025 年 12 月 9 日 以伊冲突 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:昨日沪铝高位震荡。宏观上市场几乎已经消化了美联储将降息的 预期，分析师预计美联储将"鹰派降息"，其声明措辞、中位数预测、以 及主席鲍威尔的新闻发布会都将暗示进一步降息的门槛提高。国内工信部 筹划"十五五"工作，强调促进工业平稳增长、保障重点产业链安全及整 治"内 ...

晨报 煤焦 煤焦：蒙煤通关高位 盘面偏弱运行 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 12 月 9 日 逻辑：昨日煤焦期价震荡下行，夜盘价格维持弱势，弱交割逻辑影响 下，焦煤 01 合约跌幅居前。现货市场总体偏弱，国内煤价补跌；钢厂对 焦炭价格完成首轮调降，仍存提降预期。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 从基本面来看，预计焦煤供应维持相对稳定格局。国内焦煤矿生产受 保供的提振作用相对有限，在下游需求进入淡季的阶段下，焦煤产量难有 显著增幅；但进口端仍处高位，继续对国内煤价形成压制，其中上周蒙煤 甘 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The price of building materials is expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, with a downward shift in the price center and weak operation [2][4]. - The price of lithium carbonate is expected to be in a short - term strong volatile state, and it is necessary to pay attention to macro - sentiment and mine - end news [4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Building Materials - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises will have a shutdown and maintenance period during the Spring Festival from mid - January, with a resumption around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, which is expected to affect a total output of 741,000 tons of construction steel. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills started to shut down on January 5th, and most of the rest will shut down around mid - January, with an estimated daily output reduction of about 16,200 tons for some mills [2][3]. - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3]. - The building materials market is in a pattern of weak supply and demand, with pessimistic market sentiment, a low - key winter storage, and a lack of macro and industrial highlights, leading to a continuous downward shift in the price center [4]. Lithium Carbonate - On Monday, lithium carbonate showed signs of a rebound. The main contract LC2605 closed at 94,840 yuan/ton, up 1.76%, with a basis of - 2,090 yuan/ton in a contango structure. The trading volume and open interest increased to varying degrees, and the long - short game intensified [2]. - Supported by the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and domestic new - energy policies, but constrained by inventory pressure and cautious downstream procurement, it may maintain a high - level consolidation in the short term [2]. - According to SMM data, last week's output was 21,900 tons, a 0.34% increase from the previous period. The resumption of lithium mines in Jiangxi is slow, and salt - lake lithium extraction is restricted, resulting in limited supply increments [3]. - In terms of demand, the production schedule in the energy - storage field is strong, but the demand for power batteries is seasonally weak, and terminal car companies' procurement is cautious. However, the possible continuation of the new - energy vehicle purchase - tax exemption policy boosts market confidence [3]. - The Ministry of Natural Resources has accelerated the lithium - mine approval process, but the resumption of the Jiangxi Jianxiawo lithium mine is still lagging, and the actual supply increment is limited [4]. - Some lithium - iron - phosphate enterprises are considering price increases, but downstream acceptance of high prices is low, and spot purchases are mainly for rigid needs [4]. - The open interest of the main contract has increased sharply, and speculative funds are active. Attention should be paid to possible regulatory measures by the exchange [4].

晨报 铁矿石 铁矿石： 需求加速回落 关注宏观驱动 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 需求方面：国内需求加速回落，主要原因是终端需求不足，钢厂年度检修增加，需求季节性 回落以及高炉盈利率处于三年同期低位，偏弱现实将限制价格上方高度。据 Mysteel 调研显示本 期新增 12 座高炉检修，6 座高炉复产，高炉检修主要发生在新疆、山西、江苏、四川、湖南、湖 北等地区，主要因为下游需求下滑，钢厂进行年度检修，检修时长多在 20 天以上，个别高炉检修 时长在 100 天以上:高炉复产发生在河北、东北地区，主要为高炉检修结束之后，下游需求尚可， 按计划复产。 原材料：程 鹏 原材料： 冯艳成 库存方面：钢厂端进口库存保持偏低水平，本期小幅回升，高价 ...