Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and downstream start - up rates [2][4] - The price of finished products is expected to move in a range and be sorted out, and attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises are expected to affect a total of 741,000 tons of construction steel production during the Spring Festival shutdown. Anhui's 6 short - process steel mills have different shutdown times, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous week and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] - The price of finished products continued to decline in oscillation yesterday, reaching a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the price center continues to move down. This year's winter storage is sluggish, and the price support is weak [3] Aluminum Ingots - Yesterday, the aluminum price fluctuated within a range. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased, and the June retail sales data increased by 0.6%. Fed Governor Kugler said that the Fed should not cut interest rates "for some time" [2] - As of Thursday this week, the total built - in production capacity of metallurgical alumina in China was 110.32 million tons/year, and the operating total production capacity was 89.07 million tons/year. The weekly alumina start - up rate increased by 0.82 percentage points to 80.74% [3] - Affected by factors such as the high - temperature off - season, high aluminum prices, insufficient profit margins, and weak downstream demand, the start - up rate of the aluminum processing industry decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 58.6% last week [3] - On July 17, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in the domestic mainstream consumption areas was 492,000 tons, a decrease of 9,000 tons from Monday and an increase of 26,000 tons from last Thursday. Since the end of June, the reduction of aluminum rod production has led to an expected decrease in the proportion of aluminum water in July, an increase in ingot casting volume, and a significant increase in the supply of aluminum ingots [3] - The current off - season inventory is fluctuating, and the off - season pressure on the demand side limits the upward space. Macro - risk pricing is increasing, and attention should be paid to the promotion of domestic policies [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - Recently, under the influence of a bullish market sentiment and a slight relief in supply - demand pressure, both the futures and spot markets have strengthened in resonance. The short - term market should be treated as a volatile rebound [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Market Performance - Yesterday, the prices of coal and coke futures fluctuated and trended stronger. On the spot side, the first - round price increase of coke was 70 - 95 yuan/ton, and the mainstream steel mills have accepted a price increase of 50 - 55 yuan/ton, with a still existing price - increase expectation in the market. The price of coking coal also maintained a rebound trend [2] Fundamental Analysis - This week, coal mines in the main production areas of Shanxi continued the resumption of production, but the overall process was still slow. Downstream procurement enthusiasm was high, and the demand for replenishment and speculation was concentratedly released. Coal resources were in short supply, and most pre - sale orders were signed for more than half a month. The pressure of high supply and high inventory in coal mines was significantly reduced, and coal prices were likely to rise and difficult to fall in the short term. This week, the daily output of raw coal from 523 coking coal sample mines was 1.929 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 11,000 tons; the raw coal inventory was 6.153 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 276,000 tons; the clean coal inventory was 3.391 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 381,000 tons [2] Demand - side Situation - Recently, coking plants and steel mills have accelerated their raw material replenishment. The available days of coking coal inventory in factories have rebounded from a low level. The average daily hot metal output of steel mill blast furnaces has rebounded to 2.4244 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 26,300 tons [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - International macro uncertainty weakens and risk preference rises. Short - term domestic macro expectations strengthen, and the market trading focus may gradually shift to trading strong reality and strong expectations. With the decline in foreign ore shipments and short - term high - level decline in arrivals leading to inventory depletion, and demand remaining at a relatively high level, the short - term iron ore futures price is expected to fluctuate strongly in a range. Later, attention should be paid to whether hot metal production rebounds unexpectedly and policy increments from the Politburo meeting [3] - The price will fluctuate strongly in a range. The price range of the i2509 contract is 760 yuan/ton - 790 yuan/ton, and the price range of the outer - market FE08 contract is 99 - 105 US dollars/ton [3] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Contents Logic - Rio Tinto released its second - quarter report yesterday, with a year - on - year increase of 5.36% in production and a year - on - year decrease of 0.53% in sales. Its shipping completion rate is low, and the expectation of reaching the lower limit of the annual target remains unchanged, with the shipping volume expectation revised down compared to the beginning of the year. The market has gradually accepted Trump's TACO deal, the marginal impact of Sino - US tariffs has weakened, and with the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, the market risk preference has become more positive, boosting the valuation of commodities. Domestic monetary and fiscal policies have taken effect in advance, and there are still strong expectations for incremental policies, which have a positive impact on iron ore prices [1] Supply - Recently, foreign ore shipments have entered a phased decline cycle. After the end - of - fiscal - year volume rush of Australian BHP and FMG mines, they entered the maintenance period in early July, while Brazilian shipments remained at a relatively medium - to - high level. Short - term arrivals are expected to decline from the high level, reducing the near - end supply pressure. However, the recent rebound of the outer - market price to 100 US dollars/ton may stimulate an increase in non - mainstream ore supply if the price remains high [1] Demand - The domestic daily average hot metal output has declined slightly for two consecutive weeks, with the current daily average hot metal output at 239.81 (a month - on - month decrease of 1.04). But the current profitability rate of steel mills is high, and the blast furnace profit is relatively good. Coupled with the full - scale deep losses of short - process steelmaking and the still - high cost - effectiveness of hot metal, the short - term demand for iron ore is expected to remain resilient, and the slight decline in demand has a weak impact on prices [1] Inventory - Due to the continuous rise in iron ore prices recently, steel mills have replenished their stocks to some extent, and their imported ore inventory has increased month - on - month. As the arrivals have continued to decline month - on - month, port inventories have decreased for two consecutive weeks. It is expected that the overall inventory will gradually accumulate slightly later, but the inventory accumulation pressure is weak [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the finished product, short - term observation is recommended, and try shorting at high prices after a rise [2] - For raw materials, the view is to take a short - term wait - and - see approach or try shorting on rebounds [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Product - In early July, the average daily output of crude steel from key steel enterprises was 2.097 million tons, a 1.5% decrease from the previous period; the steel inventory was 15.07 million tons, a 2.4% decrease from the previous ten - day period and a 4.6% decrease from the same ten - day period last month [2] - This week, the average含税 cost of steel billets from mainstream sample steel mills in Tangshan was 2,775 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 16 yuan/ton. Compared with the current ex - factory price of common square billets of 2,950 yuan/ton on July 16, the average profit of steel mills was 175 yuan/ton [2] - The finished product continued to adjust and consolidate yesterday. After continuous rebounds, steel prices slowed down in the past two trading days. The latest real - estate data was weak, and demand restrained prices. There are still important domestic meetings recently, and the rebound driven by sentiment is not over [2] Raw Materials - The view is to take a short - term wait - and - see approach or try shorting on rebounds [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The price of finished steel is expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, and attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [4] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to move within a range in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and downstream start - up [5] Summary by Relevant Contents Finished Steel - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises are expected to stop production during the Spring Festival from mid - January, and resume production around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons [3] - Six short - process steel mills in Anhui, one stopped production on January 5, most others will stop around mid - January, and some expect to stop after January 20, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [3][4] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% month - on - month decrease and a 43.2% year - on - year increase [4] - Finished steel prices continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the price center of gravity continues to move down [4] Aluminum Ingot - Macroscopically, the US PPI data in June was unexpectedly lower than expected, affected by the decline in service prices, and the market also focuses on the US fiscal and debt prospects and the pressure on Powell [3] - As of last Thursday, the total built - in production capacity of metallurgical alumina in China was 110.82 million tons/year, the operating total production capacity was 88.57 million tons/year, and the weekly start - up rate decreased by 0.05 percentage points to 79.92% [4] - Guinea requires 50% of bauxite exports to be transported by ships flying the Guinean flag, and its bauxite exports have increased by 37% year - on - year as of 2025. As of the end of June, alumina enterprises' in - plant inventory increased by 81,000 tons [4] - Affected by factors such as the high - temperature off - season, high aluminum prices, insufficient profit margins, and weak downstream demand, the start - up rate of the aluminum processing industry decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 58.6% last week [4] - On July 17, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 492,000 tons, a decrease of 9,000 tons from Monday and an increase of 26,000 tons from last Thursday [4] - Since the end of June, the reduction of aluminum rod production has led to an expected decrease in the proportion of aluminum water in July, an increase in ingot casting volume, and a significant increase in the supply of aluminum ingots [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The international macro uncertainty weakens and the risk preference rises. In the short term, the domestic macro expectation is enhanced. The market trading focus may gradually shift to the strong reality and strong expectation. With the decrease in foreign ore shipments and the short - term high - level decline in arrivals leading to inventory depletion, and the demand remaining at a relatively high level, the short - term iron ore futures price is expected to oscillate strongly in a range. Later, attention should be paid to whether the hot metal production rebounds beyond expectations and the incremental policies from the Politburo meeting. The price is expected to oscillate strongly in a range, with the i2509 contract price ranging from 760 yuan/ton to 790 yuan/ton and the outer - disk FE08 contract price ranging from 99 to 105 US dollars/ton [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Logic - Yesterday, the market declined slightly, and the incremental expectation of real - estate policies was disappointed. However, the economic data in the first half of the year was good, showing strong economic resilience. The market has gradually accepted the Trump TACO transaction, and the impact of Sino - US tariffs has weakened marginally. With the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut, the market risk preference has become positive, boosting the valuation of commodities. The domestic monetary and fiscal policies have taken effect in advance, with existing policies providing support and strong expectations for incremental policies. The macro - environment has a positive impact on iron ore prices [3] Supply - Recently, foreign ore shipments have entered a phased decline cycle. Australian mines BHP and FMG entered the maintenance period in early July after the fiscal - year volume rush, while Brazilian shipments remained at a relatively medium - to - high level. The short - term arrivals are expected to decline from the high level, reducing the near - end supply pressure. However, the outer - disk price has rebounded to 100 US dollars/ton. If the price remains high, it may stimulate an increase in non - mainstream ore supply [3] Demand - The domestic daily average hot metal output has declined slightly for two consecutive weeks, with the current daily average hot metal output at 239.81 (a week - on - week decrease of 1.04). But the current profitability rate of steel mills is high, and the blast - furnace profit is considerable. Coupled with the deep losses in the short - process steelmaking and the still - high cost - performance of hot metal, the short - term demand for iron ore is expected to remain resilient, and the slight decline in demand has a weak impact on prices [3] Inventory - Due to the continuous rise in iron ore prices, steel mills have replenished their stocks to some extent, and their imported ore inventory has increased week - on - week. As the arrivals have continued to decline week - on - week, the port inventory has decreased for two consecutive weeks. It is expected that the overall inventory will gradually accumulate slightly in the later period, but the pressure of inventory accumulation is weak [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report [1][2][3] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The report suggests short - term observation or short - selling on rebounds. It recommends short - term waiting and then trying short positions when prices rise [1][2][3] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Information Production and Sales Data - In June 2025, China's crude steel output was 83.18 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.2% [2] - On July 15, the average cost of 76 independent electric arc furnace construction steel mills was 3,287 yuan/ton, with no change compared to the previous day, and the average profit was a loss of 93 yuan/ton, while the valley - electricity profit was 10 yuan/ton [2] - In June 2025, 137,570 forklifts of various types were sold, a year - on - year increase of 23.1%. From January to June 2025, a total of 739,334 forklifts were sold, a year - on - year increase of 11.7% [2] Market Performance and Suggestions - The finished steel market fluctuated yesterday and declined in the afternoon. Steel prices rebounded due to anti - involution, but the recently announced real estate data is still poor, and weak demand remains the main factor dragging down prices. In the short term, demand is unlikely to pick up seasonally. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and try short positions on rebounds [2] Factors to Watch - Future factors to watch include macro - policies, supply - side production cuts, and downstream demand [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move in a range with a downward trend and weak operation [1] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to move in a range in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and downstream start - up [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises' Spring Festival shutdown is expected to affect 741,000 tons of construction steel production [2] - In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills have different shutdown plans, with a daily production impact of about 16,200 tons during shutdown [3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of new commercial housing in 10 key cities decreased 40.3% month - on - month and increased 43.2% year - on - year [3] - Finished products continued to decline yesterday, with prices hitting new lows. In the context of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and winter storage is sluggish [3] Aluminum - In the US, consumer price inflation in June reached a five - month high, which may lead the Fed to wait and see before September [2] - As of last Thursday, the national alumina operating rate decreased by 0.05 percentage points to 79.92%, with some enterprises in Shandong and Guangxi under maintenance [3] - Guinea requires 50% of bauxite exports to be transported by its own ships, and its bauxite exports have increased 37% in 2025 [3] - As of the end of June, alumina enterprise inventories increased by 81,000 tons [3] - Last week, the aluminum processing industry's operating rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 58.6% [3] - On July 14, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic main consumption areas increased by 35,000 tons compared with last Thursday [3] - Since the end of June, the reduction of aluminum rod production has led to an expected decrease in the proportion of molten aluminum in July, and the supply of aluminum ingots has increased significantly [3] - The decline in aluminum prices on Monday was due to the short - term impact of concentrated arrivals over the weekend [3]

Report Investment Rating - No information provided Core View - Recently, supported by the bullish market sentiment and a slight relief in supply - demand pressure, both futures and spot prices have strengthened in resonance. Short - term technical corrections on the market should be noted [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Conditions - On July 15, coal - coke futures prices fluctuated. On the spot side, steel mills in some regions have accepted the first round of coke price hikes [3] - In June, the output of industrial raw coal above designated size in China was 420 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.0%, with the growth rate 1.2 percentage points slower than that in May. The daily output was 14.04 million tons. From January to June, the output was 2.4 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. In June, the coke output was 41.7 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.6% and a year - on - year increase of 0.14%. From January to June, the cumulative coke output was 248.87 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.33% [3] Fundamental Analysis - Last week, coal mines in the main production areas of Shanxi continued the resumption of production, but the overall resumption process was relatively slow. The regional, phased and structural supply - demand mismatch of coking coal was not effectively alleviated. With the rising macro - expectations and the release of speculative demand, coking coal prices continued to rise, and the mine pit - mouth inventory continued to decline significantly [4] - From July 11th to 15th, due to the Naadam Festival in Mongolia, the border ports were temporarily closed and are expected to gradually resume on the 16th [4] - On the demand side, recently, coking plants and steel mills have accelerated the replenishment of raw materials, and the available days of coking coal inventory in the plants have rebounded from a low level. However, the hot metal output last week dropped below 2.4 million tons. Attention should be paid to the steel mills' production reduction [4]

晨报 成材 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 原材料：程 鹏 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 7 月 15 日 逻辑：中钢协：初步统计，全国在产电炉数量 300 多座，产能近 2 亿吨，电炉钢产量占粗钢产量的比例近几年都在 10%左右，装备和技术水 平大幅提升，生产效率和产品质量都迈入了新台阶。海关总署最新数据显 示，6 月中国出口钢材 967.8 万吨，较上月减少 90.0 万吨，环比下降 8.5%； 1-6 月累计出口钢材 5814.7 万吨，同比增长 9.2%。7 月 14 日，76 家独立 电弧 ...