晨报 煤焦 从基本面来看，精煤产量处于持续回升过程中，上周精煤日均产量为 77.9 万吨，环比前一周增加 2.7 万吨，矿端亦有小幅增库，但由于节前 下游补库，当前矿端库存水平处于低位。进口煤量逐月回升，9 月份煤炭 进口约 4600 万吨，刷新年内单月进口量最高值，1-9 月累计进口 3.46 亿 吨，同比下降 11.7%，降幅持续收窄，炼焦煤进口量同步逐月回升。蒙煤 方面，节后通关量稳步回升，目前日均通关 15.5 万吨，此前传闻国庆后 蒙煤通关要通过自动化装卸提高运力，需持续关注蒙煤进口变化。 成 材：武秋婷 原材料：程 鹏 煤焦：盘面震荡运行 关注宏观预期变化 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoint - The iron ore market is relatively weak, and short - term attention should be paid to domestic macro - policy increments. The price of iron ore will fluctuate within a range, and the strategy is to conduct range operations and use covered call options [2][5]. 3) Summary by Relevant Contents Market Situation - The black - series carbon elements were relatively strong yesterday, the price of finished products stabilized, while the iron ore price was relatively weak, and the sentiment of the black - series market remained weak [3]. Supply - The overseas ore shipment decreased slightly month - on - month. The shipment of Rio Tinto in Australia decreased significantly, while that in Brazil was relatively stable. The arrival volume reached a new high this year, and the support from the supply side continued to weaken [3]. Demand - Domestic demand decreased month - on - month but remained at a high level, still supporting the iron ore price. The blast furnace overhauls mainly occurred in Hebei, Shanxi, Jiangsu, and Shandong. The daily average pig iron output in this period was 2.4095 million tons (month - on - month - 0.59), basically the same as the average level in August. High demand still supported the iron ore price to some extent [4]. Inventory - The inventory level at the steel mill decreased slightly month - on - month, and the daily consumption of imported ore at steel mills decreased due to production cuts. Steel mills were about to enter the seasonal inventory accumulation stage. The port inventory continued to accumulate month - on - month due to the continuous increase in arrival volume [4].

从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 晨报 铝锭 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：基本面稳健运行 铝价维持高位 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 2025 年 10 月 17 日 宏观海外干扰事件反复影响市场情绪，短期基本面表现稳健，预计价 格持高位震荡，后续关注库消走势。 观点：预计价格短期偏强震荡，关注宏观情绪和矿端消息。 后期关注/风险因素：关注宏观预期变动、地缘政治危机发展、矿端复 产情况、消费释放情况。 重要声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开的资料，我公司对信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证，也不保证包含的信 息和建议不会发生变更，我们已力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中观点、结论和建 ...

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the content [1][2][3][4] Core Viewpoint - The supply and demand of coking coal and coke remain relatively stable, with no prominent fundamental contradictions. Market sentiment is easily influenced by macro - factor changes, so prices should be treated with cautious optimism [4] Summary by Related Content Market Performance - Yesterday, the futures prices of coking coal and coke rebounded fluctuately, with coking coal leading the gains, and the night - session continued the strong trend. The spot market is generally stable with a slight upward trend, and some coke enterprises in certain regions plan to raise coke prices [3] Supply - side Situation - The output of clean coal is in a continuous recovery process. This week, the daily average output of clean coal is 77.9 thousand tons, an increase of 2.7 thousand tons compared with the previous week. Mines have a slight increase in inventory, and the current inventory level at the mine end is low due to pre - holiday downstream restocking. The monthly import volume of coal is rising. In September, about 46 million tons of coal were imported, setting a new high for the monthly import volume this year. From January to September, the cumulative import was 346 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.7% with the decline continuously narrowing. The import volume of coking coal is also rising month by month. After the holiday, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal has steadily recovered, with a current daily average of 15.5 thousand tons. The change in Mongolian coal imports needs continuous attention [3] Demand - side Situation - This week, the profitability of coke enterprises has shrunk, which supports their confidence in price - holding. Most coke enterprises maintain a normal production rhythm with a capacity utilization rate of about 74%. Downstream steel still has inventory pressure, especially the inventory of plates is constantly rising. Some steel enterprises in certain regions announced that due to the rise in raw material prices and the decline in finished product prices, steel mill profits are in the red. This week, the daily average pig iron output dropped to 2.4095 million tons, a decrease of 0.59 thousand tons compared with the previous week, and the overall profitability rate is about 55% [3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - Steel prices are operating at a low level, with short - term downward pressure. Attention should be paid to the narrowing of the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [2]. 3) Summary by Related Content - **Production Data**: According to weekly data from Steel Union, rebar production decreased by 22,400 tons to 2.0116 million tons, hot - rolled coil production decreased by 14,500 tons to 3.2184 million tons, and the total production of the five major steel products decreased by 63,600 tons to 8.5695 million tons [1]. - **Inventory Data**: Rebar total inventory decreased by 185,900 tons to 6.4105 million tons, hot - rolled coil total inventory increased by 62,900 tons to 4.1919 million tons, and the total inventory of the five major steel products decreased by 184,600 tons to 15.8226 million tons [1]. - **Apparent Demand Data**: Rebar apparent demand increased by 737,400 tons to 2.1975 million tons, hot - rolled coil apparent demand increased by 245,800 tons to 3.1555 million tons, and the total apparent demand of the five major steel products increased by 1.3996 million tons to 8.7541 million tons [1]. - **Steel Mill Operating Rate**: The operating rate of 29 section steel production enterprises in Tangshan was 40%, and the capacity utilization rate was 47.48%. It is expected that some section steel mills in Tangshan will resume production on October 17th, and the operating rate will rise significantly [1]. - **Sales Policy**: On October 16th, Guangdong Zhongnan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd., Yangchun New Iron & Steel Co., Ltd., and Zhuhai Yueyufeng Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. issued a notice on price - limited sales [1]. - **Market Situation**: After reaching a new low yesterday, steel products rebounded slightly. In terms of variety fundamentals, rebar's apparent demand increased rapidly and there was a slight inventory reduction, so its fundamentals were stronger than that of hot - rolled coil. Overall, the demand for steel products remained sluggish, with no improvement in the real estate market and a slowdown in the automotive and home appliance industries. Recent Sino - US trade frictions also led to a negative macro - market. Under the resonance of macro and fundamentals, steel prices were running weakly [1].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report Recently, the disturbances from macro and industry - related policies have intensified, leading to a significant increase in price volatility. Overall, the supply - demand contradiction of iron ore itself is weak. The pressure of产业链 profit contraction and the structural contradiction of finished product inventory limit the upside potential of the price. There is real - world pressure on the upside of the iron ore price, but the high domestic molten iron production supports the price. With the current port clearance and arrival levels, the pressure of port inventory accumulation in October is not significant, so there is support on the downside. The price will fluctuate within a range [3][4]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - External ore shipments decreased slightly on a month - on - month basis. Among them, the shipment decline of Rio Tinto in Australia was relatively significant, while the shipment from Brazil was relatively stable. The arrival volume reached a new high this year. Overall, the support from the supply side continued to weaken [3]. Demand - Domestic demand decreased on a month - on - month basis but remained at a high level, supporting the iron ore price. The blast furnace steel mills continued a slight downward trend this period. Blast furnace复产 occurred in the Hebei region, which was the planned resumption of production after the previous maintenance of blast furnaces. The maintained blast furnaces were mainly concentrated in Hebei, Northeast China, and Inner Mongolia, mainly for short - term maintenance. It is expected that they can resume production within two or three weeks. The average daily molten iron output this period was 241.54 tons (month - on - month - 0.27), and the domestic demand was higher than the average level in August (240.5). Overall, the high molten iron production supported the iron ore price [4]. Price and Strategy - The price will fluctuate within a range. The strategy is to conduct range - bound operations and use covered call options [4].

Group 1 - Report's investment rating for the industry: Not provided Group 2 - The core view of the report: Steel prices are running at a low level, facing short - term downward pressure, and attention should be paid to the narrowing of the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar. The industry fundamentals remain sluggish, and steel prices are weakly operating under the resonance of macro and fundamentals [1][3] Group 3 - Summary based on related content: - Policy and international situation: The US threatens to impose a 100% tariff on China, and the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs responds that this is not the right way to get along with China. Hebei Province issues measures to support key industries' environmental performance, and steel industry leading enterprises may not reduce or reduce the proportion of crude steel production [2] - Cost and profit: The average hot - metal cost of Tangshan's mainstream sample steel mills is 2247 yuan/ton, and the average billet cost is 3006 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan/ton week - on - week. Compared with the billet price on October 15th, the average loss per ton of steel mills is 86 yuan [2] - Real estate data: The total sales of 17 key real - estate enterprises from January to September 2025 are 1055.724 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 14.6%. In September, the sales are 113.85 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 5% and a month - on - month increase of 1.7% [2] - Engineering machinery data: In September, the monthly operating rate of China's main engineering machinery products is 55.2%, a year - on - year decrease of 9.08 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 0.06 percentage points. The operating rate of excavators is 54.5% [2] - Market performance: Steel prices continued to hit new lows yesterday. Rebar is approaching 3000, and hot - rolled coils are approaching 3200 [2]

晨报 铝锭 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：海外情绪多变 库存小幅去化 投资咨询业务资格： 以伊冲突 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 后期关注/风险因素：关注宏观预期变动、地缘政治危机发展、矿端复 产情况、消费释放情况。 重要声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开的资料，我公司对信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证，也不保证包含的信 息和建议不会发生变更，我们已力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中观点、结论和建议仅供参考，投资者据此 做出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关。 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of iron ore has dropped significantly, and short - term fluctuations have intensified. Although recent policy disturbances have increased, the supply - demand contradiction of iron ore itself is weak. The pressure of shrinking industrial chain profits and the structural contradiction of finished product inventory limit the upside of prices, but high domestic hot - metal production supports the price. The price will run in a range, and the inventory accumulation pressure at ports in October is not large [2][3][4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Reasons for price decline - The sharp drop in iron ore price is mainly due to the escalation of Sino - US trade frictions, which reduces market risk appetite and causes a collective decline in the black series. Also, the market has over - expected the impact of the US ship "special port fee" policy, while the proportion of US ship iron ore transportation is low and the increase in transportation cost is limited [3] Supply - The overseas ore shipment has decreased slightly month - on - month. The shipment of Rio Tinto in Australia has decreased significantly, while that of Brazil is relatively stable. The arrival volume has reached a new high this year, and the support from the supply side continues to weaken [3] Demand - Domestic demand has decreased month - on - month but remains at a high level. The daily average hot - metal output this period is 241.54 tons (month - on - month - 0.27), higher than the average level in August (240.5). Although the blast furnace steel mills have continued a slight decline, high hot - metal production supports the iron ore price [4] Price - The price will run in a range. The main contract of Dalian iron ore futures will be in the range of 780 - 805 yuan/ton, corresponding to an external market price of about 104 - 107 US dollars/ton [4] Strategy - Adopt range operation and covered call options [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply and demand of coking coal and coke remain relatively stable, with no prominent fundamental contradictions. However, market sentiment is easily disturbed by macro - factors, causing prices to run under pressure [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Contents Market Situation - Recently, the futures prices of coking coal and coke have been oscillating weakly. Although the risk of Sino - US tariff conflicts has no obvious direct impact on coking coal and coke exports, it disturbs market sentiment and increases the probability of price decline [2] - After the first round of coke price increase was implemented, the profits of coke enterprises have been repaired. Most coke enterprises maintain a normal production rhythm, with a capacity utilization rate of around 75%. During the holiday, the transportation capacity in the main production areas was slightly affected, but the overall coke shipment was in order [2] - Steel mills'开工 remains at a relatively high level, with the daily average pig iron output maintaining above 2.4 million tons, which supports the demand for raw materials [2] Coking Coal Market - The coking coal market is generally stable, with individual mine prices adjusting downward from high levels. Currently, the inventory pressure at the coal mine end is not obvious, supporting relatively firm prices [3] - The monthly import volume of coal is increasing. In September, coal imports were about 46 million tons, setting a new high for the single - month import volume this year. From January to September, the cumulative imports were 346 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.7%, and the decline continued to narrow. The import volume of coking coal also increased month by month [3] - It is rumored that after the National Day, Mongolia will increase the transportation capacity of coal through automated loading and unloading, adjusting the daily customs clearance volume from the previous upper limit of 1,500 to 2,000. It will be in trial operation for one month after the National Day, and the specific situation needs continuous tracking [3] Later Concerns - Pay attention to the changes in the blast furnace operation of steel mills and the resumption of coal mines [3]