Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core View The industry will experience range - bound oscillations, with the strong game - playing pattern continuing. Attention should be focused on marginal changes in costs, supply, and demand [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Performance - Yesterday, the main lithium carbonate contract showed wide - range oscillations, with prices fluctuating between 155,000 yuan/ton and 173,400 yuan/ton, closing at 161,940 yuan/ton. Trading volume slightly shrank to 589,000 lots, and open interest slightly decreased to 453,000 lots. The net short position of the main force in the capital market continued, and the long - short ratio decreased by 3.8% month - on - month. Market sentiment was cautious, and the number of warehouse receipts increased to 27,200 lots. The average price of SMM electric carbon was 163,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the main contract was 1,060 yuan/ton [3]. - In terms of market transactions, upstream lithium salt manufacturers preferentially fulfilled long - term agreements, and their willingness to sell spot orders was low, with some manufacturers quoting high prices. The proportion of spot purchases by downstream material manufacturers increased during long - term agreement negotiations. The weakening of the afternoon market led to a recovery in inquiry and transactions, and overall transactions moderately increased [3]. Fundamental Analysis - **Supply side**: Last week, raw material prices increased by more than 9% month - on - month, continuing the upward trend and strengthening cost support. The total weekly operating rate of SMM lithium carbonate decreased by 1.05% month - on - month. The operating rates of spodumene and salt lakes decreased slightly, while those of lithium mica and recycling increased slightly. SMM's total output increased by 0.5% month - on - month, and production capacity was further released [4]. - **Demand side**: There was a significant structural differentiation. Last week, the production of SMM lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials decreased by 3.3% and 1.3% month - on - month respectively, with inventory destocking. The production of SMM power cells slightly decreased, while SMM new energy vehicle sales and penetration reached new highs. Slight growth in the production scheduling of energy - storage cells supported demand [4]. - **Inventory**: Last week, the weekly inventory of the SMM sample increased by 0.3% month - on - month, showing the first sign of inventory accumulation. The total inventory days slightly increased to 28 days [4]. Policy Impact - In 2026, subsidies for car trade - ins, the Fed's interest rate cuts, the industrial plan for Qinghai salt lakes, the key points of the "15th Five - Year Plan" for energy storage, and a series of arrangements from the Central Economic Work Conference jointly provided favorable support for long - term supply - demand balance [4]. - On January 4th, the State Council's "Solid Waste Comprehensive Management Action Plan" strengthened constraints on the supply side, which may exacerbate short - term supply shortages. On January 9th, the two departments announced a reduction in the battery export tax - refund policy, which may trigger short - term export rush demand [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The central bank's positive statements in its meeting have boosted market sentiment. After the new year, the production of coal, coke, and steel enterprises has recovered. The downstream's pre - holiday restocking of raw materials supports the upstream's price - holding confidence. The short - term market price fluctuates sharply, and cautious operation is recommended [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - Yesterday, the coal and coke futures prices fluctuated, maintaining high volatility. In the spot market, the trading atmosphere in the coking coal market has been active recently, with the order volume at the mine mouth rebounding. Coal prices in many places have rebounded from low levels, and the quoted price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal at the port has increased by more than 100 yuan/ton. Some coking plants in Inner Mongolia have started to raise coke prices, with dry - quenched coke up 55 yuan/ton, to be implemented from January 15 [2] Import Data - In December 2025, China imported 58.597 million tons of coal and lignite, a month - on - month increase of 33% and a year - on - year increase of 11.9%, hitting a record high for monthly imports. The annual cumulative import was about 490 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.6% [2] Fundamental Situation - After the new year, coal mines have gradually resumed production. This week, the production of coking raw coal and clean coal has increased to 1.978 million tons and 0.768 million tons respectively. The raw coal inventory at mines has increased, while the clean coal inventory has further decreased. The downstream coke and steel enterprises have also resumed production and maintained a certain procurement rhythm for raw materials [2] - Last week, the daily customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port was 164,600 tons, 37,400 tons higher than the same period last year, and the port inventory remained relatively high [2] Demand Situation - In the past two weeks, the profitability rate of steel mills has expanded, and the average daily hot metal output of blast furnaces has stopped falling and rebounded. In the week of January 9, it was 2.295 million tons, an increase of 20,700 tons from the previous week and an increase of 51,300 tons compared with the same period last year. It is expected to show a steady and slight upward trend in the short term, and the steel mills' restocking rhythm for raw materials is expected to accelerate in the later stage, supporting the upstream's price - holding confidence [2]

从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2026 年 1 月 14 日 晨报 煤焦 煤焦：现货跟涨 盘面高位震荡 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 后期关注/风险因素：关注焦钢对原料补库节奏变化、煤矿复产情况。 重要声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开的资料，我公司对信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证，也不保证包含的信 息和建议不会发生变更，我们已力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中观点、结论和建议仅供参考，投资者据此 做出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关。 地址：北京市海淀区海淀大街 8 号 19 层 ☎ 400-700-6700 ww ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For building materials, it is expected to operate in a range-bound consolidation [4] - For aluminum ingots, the price is expected to be strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and mining - related news [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Building Materials - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process steel mills will stop production for maintenance from mid - January, and resume production around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons [3][4] - Six short - process steel mills in Anhui: one started to stop production on January 5th, most will stop around mid - January, and a few after January 20th, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [4] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of new commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [4] - Building materials prices continued to decline and reached a new low. The market sentiment is pessimistic due to the weak supply - demand situation and lack of highlights. Winter storage is sluggish and provides weak support for prices [4] Aluminum Ingots - Macroscopically, the overall inflation rate in the US in December remained unchanged, and the core indicator annual rate was lower than expected. Traders increased bets on "earlier Fed rate cuts" [3] - High aluminum prices suppress downstream purchasing demand, and the overall trading sentiment of buyers declined compared to the previous trading day [4] - The supply shortage of domestic bauxite has eased, alumina plants' bauxite inventories have increased, the spot price of alumina is under pressure, and the intended purchase price of domestic bauxite by alumina plants is falling [4] - The intended transaction price of imported bauxite has decreased, the market is quiet, and some alumina plants are cautious in their procurement plans [4] - Last week, the weekly operating rate of domestic leading aluminum processing enterprises increased by 0.2 percentage points to 60.1%, but the overall situation is "supply - side disturbances ease, demand - side suppression intensifies" [4] - High aluminum prices have generally suppressed the entire industrial chain. Downstream enterprises delay purchases and digest inventories, resulting in insufficient new orders [4] - The operating rate of aluminum processing is expected to remain weakly volatile in the short term [4] - On January 12, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic main consumption areas was 730,000 tons, an increase of 46,000 tons from the previous Monday [4] - Macro performance is strong. The logic of the monetary easing cycle driven by the Fed's rate - cut expectation remains unchanged. Domestic monetary easing and consumption policies boost market risk appetite and demand expectations, but beware of high - price risks [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific industry investment rating [1][2][3][4] 2. Core Viewpoints - The price of lithium carbonate is expected to be in a high - level range - bound, and investors should be vigilant about potential price corrections. Attention should be focused on marginal changes in cost, supply, and demand [4] 3. Summary by Key Points Market Performance of Lithium Carbonate - The main contract of lithium carbonate continued its strong trend after opening yesterday, with the disk price hitting the daily limit of 174,600 yuan/ton and closing at 166,980 yuan/ton. Trading volume increased to 608,200 lots, and open interest decreased to 460,300 lots. The net short position of the main force in the capital market continued, and the number of warehouse receipts increased to 26,900 lots [3] - The average price of SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate in the spot market was 159,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the main contract was - 7,480 yuan/ton [3] Supply - Side Analysis - Last week, raw material prices increased by more than 9% week - on - week, strengthening cost support [4] - The total weekly operating rate of SMM lithium carbonate decreased by 1.05% week - on - week. The operating rates of spodumene and salt - lake lithium decreased slightly, while those of lithium - mica and the recycling end increased slightly. The total output of SMM lithium carbonate increased by 0.5% week - on - week, and production capacity was further released [4] Demand - Side Analysis - There was significant structural differentiation on the demand side. Last week, the production of SMM lithium - iron phosphate and ternary materials decreased by 3.3% and 1.3% week - on - week respectively, and inventory was destocked. The production of SMM power cells decreased slightly, while SMM new - energy vehicle sales and penetration rate reached new highs, and the production schedule of SMM energy - storage cells increased slightly, supporting demand [4] Inventory Situation - Last week, the weekly inventory of the SMM sample increased by 0.3% week - on - week, showing the first sign of inventory accumulation. The total inventory days increased slightly to 28 days [4] Policy Impact - In 2026, policies such as car trade - in subsidies, the Fed's interest - rate cuts, the Qinghai Salt - Lake Industry Plan, the key points of energy - storage development during the 14th Five - Year Plan, and a series of arrangements from the Central Economic Work Conference jointly support the long - term balance of supply and demand [4] - On January 4th, the State Council's "Solid Waste Comprehensive Management Action Plan" strengthened constraints on the supply side, which may intensify short - term supply shortages. On January 9th, the two departments announced a reduction in the battery export tax - refund policy, which may trigger short - term export - rush demand [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - Fed's easing cycle starts, but short - term rate - cut probability is low. Domestic macro narrative is positive, with rising expectations for incremental monetary policy, and industrial chain fundamentals improve. Short - term iron ore supply - demand contradiction needs to accumulate. Iron ore restocking demand supports spot prices, and supply enters the off - season. However, price increase is limited by the industrial chain profit, and the restocking demand drive has entered the realization period. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term. The short - term price has risen too much, the basis has shrunk significantly, and the upward space of finished product prices is limited. It is not recommended to chase high. The recommended strategy is interval operation and covered call options [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Logic - Domestic monetary and fiscal policies are in the active reserve period, and the market has high expectations for incremental policies in the Two Sessions (starting on March 4). On January 6, the central bank emphasized using various monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement cuts and interest rate cuts. In December, the manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, returning to the expansion range for the first time since April, with policy pre - setting guiding the marginal improvement of corporate sentiment and policy expectations [1] Supply - Current overseas ore shipments enter the off - season. Weekly shipments have declined for two consecutive weeks. According to seasonal patterns, before mid - February, overseas ore shipments will continue to decline month - on - month but be higher than last year due to the low base caused by the hurricane in Australia last year. Domestic ore supply is also in the off - season. As of January 12, Mysteel's total global iron ore shipments were 31.809 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 328,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 3.653 million tons. The total shipments of 19 ports in Australia and Brazil were 25.332 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.333 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.457 million tons [1] Demand - Domestic demand has rebounded for three consecutive weeks and is at the highest level in the same period of the past five years. Steel mill profitability has stabilized after the decline in carbon element prices, and steel inventory has not shown excessive seasonal accumulation. Domestic steel mill demand is expected to continue to rise in the short term, and the pre - festival restocking cycle has gradually started, with restocking demand expected to continue to be released [1] Inventory - Steel mill imports inventory has risen for three consecutive weeks, with the pre - Spring Festival seasonal restocking cycle starting, but the inventory is still at the lowest level in the same period of the past five years. Later restocking demand will support the spot price. Port inventory continues to accumulate due to relatively high arrivals. It is expected that the pressure on port inventory accumulation will ease with the decline in arrivals and the increase in restocking demand [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The central bank's positive statements at the meeting have boosted market sentiment. After the start of the new year, the production of coal, coke, and steel enterprises has recovered. The pre - holiday replenishment of raw materials by downstream enterprises supports the upstream's confidence in price - holding. The short - term futures price fluctuates sharply, and cautious operation is recommended [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Aspects Market Performance - Yesterday, the coking coal futures price fluctuated strongly, with a daily increase of over 3%. However, the price dropped at night, basically erasing the daily gain. On the spot side, coal prices in many places have rebounded from the low level recently. The quotation of Mongolian No. 5 coal at the port has increased by 113 yuan/ton. Some coking plants in Inner Mongolia have started to raise the coke price, with the dry - quenched coke price increased by 55 yuan/ton, and the increase is planned to be implemented on January 15th. The coal - coke market has been strong recently due to the warming market sentiment and the downstream's seasonal replenishment [3] Fundamental Situation - After the start of the new year, coal mines have gradually resumed production. Last week, the production of coking raw coal and clean coal rebounded to 189.9 million tons and 73.4 million tons respectively. The raw coal inventory at the mine end has increased, while the clean coal inventory has decreased. This is mainly because downstream coking and steel enterprises have also resumed production and maintained a certain procurement rhythm for raw materials [3] - At the import end, the daily customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port last week was 16.46 million tons, 3.74 million tons higher than the same period last year, and the port inventory remained relatively high [3] - On the demand side, the profitability rate of steel mills has expanded in the past two weeks, and the daily average pig iron output of blast furnaces has stopped falling and rebounded. In the week of January 9th, it was 229.5 million tons, an increase of 2.07 million tons compared with the previous week and 5.13 million tons compared with the same period last year. It is expected to show a steady and small - scale recovery in the short term. Later, the raw material replenishment rhythm of steel mills is expected to accelerate, which will support the upstream's confidence in price - holding [3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The report suggests that the lithium carbonate market will experience high - level fluctuations, and investors should be vigilant about price corrections, focusing on cost and marginal changes in supply and demand [3]. 3) Summary by Related Content Market Performance - The main contract of lithium carbonate reached the daily limit at 156,060 yuan/ton yesterday, with the limit - down order volume remaining above 20,000 lots, trading volume of 68,500 lots, and open interest slightly decreasing to 506,700 lots. The net short position of the main force in the capital market continued, and the warehouse receipts slightly increased to 25,970 lots. The SMM average price of electric carbon was 152,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the main contract narrowed to - 4,060 yuan/ton [2]. - The sharp price increase significantly affected the spot market sentiment. Upstream lithium salt producers were more willing to sell and quote, and some quotes were higher than the futures price. Downstream procurement and inquiry activities increased, and the proportion of spot purchases in long - term contract negotiations increased compared to last year. The market generally expects the price to continue rising [2]. Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: Last week, the raw material price increased by more than 9% month - on - month, strengthening cost support. The total weekly operating rate of SMM lithium carbonate decreased by 1.05% month - on - month, with a slight decline in the operating rates of spodumene and salt lakes, and a slight increase in the operating rates of lithium mica and recycling. The total output increased by 0.5% month - on - month, and production capacity was further released [3]. - **Demand**: There was a significant structural differentiation in demand. Last week, the production of SMM lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials decreased by 3.3% and 1.3% month - on - month respectively, with inventory depletion. The production of SMM power cells slightly decreased, while the sales and penetration rate of SMM new energy vehicles reached new highs, and the production schedule of energy - storage cells increased slightly to support demand [3]. - **Inventory**: Last week, the SMM sample weekly inventory increased by 0.3% month - on - month, showing signs of inventory accumulation for the first time, and the total inventory days slightly increased to 28 days [3]. Policy Impact - In 2026, the subsidy for automobile trade - ins, the Fed's interest rate cut, the Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Plan, the key points of energy - storage during the 15th Five - Year Plan, and a series of arrangements of the Central Economic Work Conference formed a coordinated positive effect to support long - term supply - demand balance. In the short term, regulatory tightening was clear, and measures such as trading limits on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange were used to stabilize price fluctuations [3]. - On January 4, the State Council's "Solid Waste Comprehensive Management Action Plan" strengthened the constraints on the supply side, which may intensify the supply shortage in the short term. On January 9, the two departments announced a reduction in the battery export tax - rebate policy, which may trigger a rush for export demand in the short term [3].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment rating provided for the industry in the report Group 2: Core Views - The price center of finished products will move down and run weakly, with an expected trend of oscillating consolidation [1][3] - Aluminum prices will remain high in the short - term, with an expected short - term strong performance, but high - price risks should be watched out for [1][4] Group 3: Summary by Category Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises will stop production for maintenance from mid - January, and resume production around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons [2] - In Anhui Province, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5th, and most others will stop around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% month - on - month decrease and a 43.2% year - on - year increase [3] - Finished products continued to decline yesterday, with the price hitting a new low. The market sentiment is pessimistic, and winter storage is sluggish, providing weak price support [3] Aluminum - Macroscopically, the US dollar is weakening. The Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at the January 27 - 28 meeting, but the market still expects two more rate cuts later this year [2] - For domestic mines, the supply shortage has eased, alumina plants' bauxite inventories are accumulating, and the intended purchase price is falling, with further downward space expected [3] - For imported mines, the intended transaction price has declined, the market is quiet, and alumina plants' procurement plans are cautious [3] - Last week, the weekly operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises rose 0.2 percentage points to 60.1%. The overall pattern is "supply - side disturbances ease, demand - side suppression intensifies", and high aluminum prices suppress consumption and operating rate recovery [3] - On January 12, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 730,000 tons, a 46,000 - ton increase from the previous Monday [3] - The macro - performance is strong. The logic of the Fed's interest - rate cut - driven monetary easing cycle remains unchanged. Domestic monetary easing and consumption policies have boosted market sentiment and demand expectations, keeping aluminum prices high [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black market is expected to experience low-level consolidation. The steel market has a supply-demand mismatch, with supply slightly increasing and demand remaining weak. The iron ore market is likely to fluctuate at a high level, supported by the approaching steel mill replenishment cycle and supply entering the off - season. The coking coal and coke market has seen production resumption after the new year, and downstream pre - holiday replenishment may support prices. The ferroalloy market is expected to have narrow - range fluctuations due to weak terminal demand and a lack of driving factors [12][13][14][15] Summary by Catalog 01 Week - ly Market Review - Futures and spot prices of various black commodities have different changes. For example, the closing price of the RB2605 rebar futures contract on January 9, 2026, was 3144, up 22 from December 31, 2025, with a 0.70% increase; the spot price of HRB400E: Φ20 in Shanghai was 3290, down 10 from December 31, 2025, with a 0.30% decrease [8] 02 This Week's Black Market Forecast Overall Black Market - Logic: The average capacity utilization rate and average operating rate of independent electric - arc furnace steel mills and blast furnaces have increased. The steel product market is affected by a supply - demand mismatch, with supply slightly increasing and demand weak. The macro - market has limited impact on prices. - Viewpoint: Low - level consolidation [12] Iron Ore - Logic: Domestic monetary policy expectations are rising, and the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle boosts commodities. The supply is entering the off - season, and demand is expected to increase with the approaching pre - holiday replenishment cycle. - Viewpoint: High - level fluctuations in the short term. Do not chase high prices. Adopt interval operations and sell out - of - the - money call options [13] Coking Coal and Coke - Logic: The central bank's emphasis on loose monetary policy boosts market sentiment. Coal market production - cut rumors have limited impact on coking coal supply. After the new year, coal mines are resuming production, and downstream demand is expected to increase. - Viewpoint: Be cautious due to sharp short - term price fluctuations [14] Ferroalloys - Logic: Overseas and domestic macro - environments have different impacts. The supply of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese has different trends, and demand is in a weak recovery state with high inventory pressure. - Viewpoint: Narrow - range fluctuations [15] 03 Variety Data Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - Rebar: The weekly output last week was 191.04 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 8.37 million tons. The apparent demand was 174.96 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 15.09 million tons. The total inventory was 438.11 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 20.26 million tons [18][29] - Hot - rolled coil: The weekly output last week was 305.51 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 1.62 million tons. The apparent demand was 308.34 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 7.25 million tons. The total inventory was 368.13 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 58.23 million tons [30][35] Iron Ore - Imported ore port inventory (45 ports): The total inventory this week was 16275.26 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 1272.30 million tons. The port daily handling volume was 323.27 million tons per day, with a year - on - year decrease of 3.0 million tons [49] - 247 steel mills' imported ore inventory/consumption: The inventory was 8989.59 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 869.34 million tons. The daily consumption was 283.28 million tons per day, with a year - on - year increase of 2.45 million tons [61] - Global shipments (19 ports): The total global shipments this week were 3180.9 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 365.3 million tons [69] Coal and Coke - Coke total inventory: Last week, it was 915.9 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 41.99 million tons. - Coking coal total inventory: Last week, it was 2783.9 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 355.02 million tons. - Independent coking enterprises' average profit per ton of coke: Last week, it was - 45 yuan, with a year - on - year decrease of 29 yuan [94][102][111] Ferroalloys - Spot prices: On January 9, the price of semi - carbonate manganese ore in Tianjin Port was 35.5 yuan per dry - ton degree, with a year - on - year increase of 1.8 yuan. The spot price of ferromanganese in Inner Mongolia was 5700 yuan per ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 150 yuan. The spot price of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia was 5300 yuan per ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 700 yuan [134] - Inventory: On January 2, the total port inventory of manganese ore was 438.9 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 59.2 million tons [137] - Production: The weekly output of ferromanganese last week was 191030 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 10255 tons. The weekly output of ferrosilicon was 9.91 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.55 million tons [140][143] - Demand: The weekly demand for ferromanganese in five major steel products last week was 115899 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 89 tons. The weekly demand for ferrosilicon was 18508.8 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 107 tons [145]