Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Core Viewpoints - The finished product is expected to be in a state of shock consolidation, and the aluminum price is expected to be in a short - term strong shock [3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Product - Yunnan - Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises are expected to affect a total of 741,000 tons of construction steel production during the Spring Festival shutdown; 6 short - process steel mills in Anhui, 1 stopped production on January 5, and most of the rest will stop around mid - January, with a daily impact of about 16,200 tons of production during the shutdown [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% month - on - month decrease and a 43.2% year - on - year increase [3] - The finished product continued to decline in shock yesterday, reaching a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment was pessimistic, the price center of gravity continued to move down, and the winter storage was sluggish this year, with weak price support [3] Aluminum - The news that Rio Tinto is considering closing the Tomago aluminum smelter boosts the aluminum price. The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity changes little. The supply of domestic bauxite is tight, the ore price rises slightly, and the decline of alumina price continues [3] - Last week, the operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises was flat at 62.4% month - on - month, a slight drop of 0.1% from last week, showing the characteristics of "stable in the peak season and differentiated internally" [3] - On October 27, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 626,000 tons, an increase of 8,000 tons from last Thursday and 1,000 tons from last Monday [3] - Overseas news affects market sentiment, the short - term fundamentals are stable, and the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. Follow - up attention should be paid to the inventory - consumption trend [4]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The macro - drive is positive, and the prices of the black series have rebounded. The supply - demand contradiction of iron ore is weak, but the pressure of profit contraction in the industrial chain and the structural contradiction of finished product inventory limit the upside of prices. However, the domestic demand is resilient, and the basis of iron ore has strengthened year - on - year and month - on - month, with improved market sentiment. It is expected that the price will continue to rebound, and the price will run in a range [2][3][4]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - Outer ore shipments increased slightly month - on - month, with stable shipments from Australia and a relative rebound in shipments from Brazil to a high - shipment range. The arrival volume dropped significantly for two consecutive weeks. Overall, the supply of outer ore increased steadily, and the immediate supply decreased significantly month - on - month, strengthening the support at the supply end [3]. Demand - Domestic demand continued to decline month - on - month due to environmental protection in Hebei causing some steel mills to shut down or reduce loads. Although the blast furnace operating rate increased this week, the molten iron output decreased. The loss range of steel mills expanded, and the profitability rate dropped to the lowest level of the year. The blast furnace operating rate and profitability rate continued to decline slowly, and considering the seasonal restocking cycle of steel mills, domestic iron ore demand is expected to remain resilient [4]. Inventory - The inventory level at the steel mill end increased slightly month - on - month as steel mills entered the seasonal restocking cycle. Due to the high arrival volume and a decline in the port clearance volume caused by weather, port inventories continued to accumulate month - on - month [4]. Price - The price will run in a range. The main contract of Dalian iron ore will be in the range of 785 - 820 yuan/ton, corresponding to an outer - market price of about 105 - 108 US dollars/ton [5]. Strategy - Adopt range operation and covered call options [5].

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Short - term coal and coke supply - demand has marginal fluctuations, remaining at a relatively high level overall with temporarily low inventory pressure. Attention should be paid to the impact of demand changes on market sentiment, and prices should be treated with cautious optimism [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Market Performance - Yesterday, coal and coke futures prices fluctuated violently. In the spot market, it was generally stable with a slight upward trend. The second round of coke price hikes was implemented, with a cumulative increase of 100 - 130 yuan/ton in two rounds, and some regional coke enterprises planned a third round of hikes [3] Supply Side - Last week, some coal mines in Shanxi's Lüliang and Linfen regions shut down due to safety reasons, and open - pit coal mines in Inner Mongolia's Wuhai region shut down for goaf treatment, leading to a decline in coal production. The daily average coking coal output of 523 coking coal mines was 76.1 million tons, a decrease of 1.8 million tons from the previous week and 1.7 million tons year - on - year [3] - From January to September, China's cumulative imports of Mongolian coking coal were 41.747 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.6716 billion tons, a decline of 3.8%. In August and September, the monthly import volume of Mongolian coking coal was around 6 billion tons, narrowing the year - on - year decline. In October, the daily average customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port was 12.8 million tons, a decrease of 4 million tons from September. It is expected that Mongolian coking coal imports in October will decline, and the annual import volume may be the same as last year [3] Demand Side - Demand is in the transition stage from peak season to off - season. Steel mills' profits have further shrunk, with the profitability rate dropping to 47.6%. The daily average hot metal output has slightly decreased to 23.99 million tons. As the peak demand season nears its end, the pressure on finished products is increasing, and hot metal output tends to decline. Attention should be paid to the transmission of pressure to the raw material end [3]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoint - The steel price is running at a low level and there is a short - term rebound [4] Group 3: Summary by Content Macro - Policy - The central bank governor mentioned implementing existing monetary policies and researching new ones [4] Company Performance - As of October 28, 13 listed building materials companies announced their Q1 - Q3 2025 performance, with a total revenue of 305.292 billion yuan and a total net profit of 8.608 billion yuan [4] - 9 companies were profitable, with China National Building Material having the highest net profit of 2.96 billion yuan [4] - 6 companies including Huaxin Cement and Tapai Group saw year - on - year growth in net profit [4] - 7 companies had revenues exceeding 10 billion yuan, with China National Building Material ranking first with 133.443 billion yuan [4] Market Situation - The finished product prices showed a trend of rising and then falling yesterday, maintaining a relatively strong operation [4] - The recent macro - market sentiment has warmed up, and environmental protection restrictions in some areas of Hebei have supported the prices [4] - Demand has changed little, and the weak real estate market restricts the price rebound space [4] Later Focus - Macro - policies and downstream demand conditions should be focused on [4]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report Short - term coal and coke supply - demand has marginal fluctuations and remains at a relatively high level overall. Inventory pressure is temporarily not significant, but attention should be paid to the impact of imported coal variables on the market. Prices should be treated with cautious optimism [4]. 3) Summary by Relevant Contents Market Performance - Yesterday, the coal and coke futures prices fluctuated strongly and approached the previous high, with relatively intense overall fluctuations. The spot market was generally stable with a slight upward trend, and the second round of coke price hikes was implemented, with a cumulative increase of 100 - 130 yuan/ton in two rounds [2][3]. Supply Side - Last week, some coal mines in Shanxi's Lvliang and Linfen regions were shut down due to safety reasons, and open - pit coal mines in Inner Mongolia's Wuhai and other areas were shut down for goaf treatment, resulting in a decline in coal production. The daily average clean coal output of 523 coking coal mines was 76.1 tons, a decrease of 1.8 tons compared to the previous week and 1.7 tons year - on - year [3]. - From January to September, China's cumulative imports of Mongolian coking coal were 41.747 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.6716 million tons, a decline of 3.8%. However, the imports in August and September were both at a high level of around 6 million tons, narrowing the year - on - year decline. The high - frequency data shows that the average daily customs clearance volume at the Ganqimao Port for Mongolian coal in October was 128,000 tons, a decrease of 40,000 tons compared to September. It is expected that Mongolian coking coal imports will decline in October, and the annual imports may be flat year - on - year [3]. Demand Side - The profit of steel mills has further shrunk, with the profitability rate dropping to 47.6%. The daily average pig iron output has slightly decreased to 2.399 million tons. As the demand approaches the end of the year, the pressure on finished products is increasing, and the pig iron output tends to decline. Attention should be paid to the transmission of pressure to the raw material side [3].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Views - For building materials, the view is that they will run in a range - bound consolidation, with the price center of gravity moving down and running weakly, and attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [3]. - For aluminum ingots, it is expected that the price will be strongly volatile in the short - term, gradually transition to the off - season, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment, macro - expectation changes, geopolitical crisis development, mine - end resumption, and consumption release [1][4]. 3) Summary by Related Content Building Materials - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process building steel producers will have a shutdown and maintenance period during the Spring Festival from mid - January, with a resumption around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills has stopped production on January 5, and most others will stop around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [2][3]. - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3]. - Building materials continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand, market sentiment is pessimistic, and winter storage is sluggish, providing little price support [3]. Aluminum - As of October 27, the SMM imported bauxite index was $73.16 per ton, down $0.4 from the previous day due to high imported ore inventory. Domestic bauxite supply is tight, but price increases are limited due to falling alumina prices and high absolute inventory [3]. - Last week, the operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises was flat at 62.4% week - on - week, down 0.1% from the previous week. Different sectors showed different trends: the operating rate of aluminum sheet and strip decreased by 1 percentage point to 67.0%, aluminum cable increased by 0.4% to 64.4%, aluminum profile increased slightly to 53.7%, aluminum foil decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 71.9%, and recycled aluminum remained at 58.6% [3]. - As of October 27, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 626,000 tons, an increase of 8,000 tons from last Thursday and 1,000 tons from last Monday [3]. - Macro overseas interference affects market sentiment. The short - term fundamentals are stable, and it is expected that the price will remain high and volatile. Pay attention to the inventory - consumption trend [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The industry is operating at a low level with a short - term rebound potential [3] Group 3: Summary of Relevant Information Macro - economic Data - From January to September 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China was 5373.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.2%. The ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry turned from loss to profit, with a profit of 973.4 billion yuan [2] Downstream Construction Projects - A survey of 36 downstream construction units showed that only 38.89% of enterprises have new projects in Q4 2025, and new projects will be concentrated in Q1 2026. Most enterprises' existing project scales are stable, but they face significant financial pressure and are cautious in procurement, keeping raw material inventory low [2] Market Performance -成材 rebounded yesterday, with a morning decline and an afternoon rally. After Sino - US consultations, a preliminary consensus was reached, improving the macro - level and boosting risk sentiment. Since Monday, some areas in Hebei have implemented a weather level - II emergency response, supporting the price of 成材 [2] Later Concerns - Macro policies and downstream demand conditions should be focused on [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Aluminum: With obvious support from macro - sentiment, it is expected to fluctuate strongly in the near term. Attention should be paid to downstream feedback at high prices [10][11] - Zinc: In the short term, the price will follow the overall non - ferrous metals to operate at a high level, but medium - and long - term supply increase will put pressure on the upside. Attention should be paid to the transmission from the mine end to the smelting end, and be vigilant against macro - risk events [13] - Tin: In the short term, there is a situation of weak supply and demand, and the tin price will be strongly sorted [15] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 01有色周度行情回顾 - Copper (CU2512): The closing price of the futures main contract on October 24, 2025, was 87,720, a weekly increase of 3,330 or 3.95% compared to October 17. The spot price was 86,370, a weekly increase of 1,535 or 1.81% [8] - Aluminum (AL2512): The closing price of the futures main contract on October 24, 2025, was 21,225, a weekly increase of 315 or 1.51% compared to October 17. The spot price was 21,130, a weekly increase of 170 or 0.81% [8] - Zinc (ZN2512): The closing price of the futures main contract on October 24, 2025, was 22,355, a weekly increase of 540 or 2.48% compared to October 17. The spot price was 21,818, a weekly decrease of 38 or - 0.17% [8] - Tin (SN2512): The closing price of the futures main contract on October 24, 2025, was 284,300, a weekly increase of 3,550 or 1.26% compared to October 17. The spot price was 282,750, a weekly increase of 1,500 or 0.53% [8] - Nickel (NI2512): The closing price of the futures main contract on October 24, 2025, was 122,150, a weekly increase of 990 or 0.82% compared to October 17. The spot price was 123,240, a weekly increase of 460 or 0.37% [8] 3.2 02本周有色行情预判 Aluminum - Logic: Last week, the aluminum price fluctuated strongly. Macroscopically, the increase in US consumer prices in September was lower than expected, and the Fed is still expected to cut interest rates again this week. Domestically, the macro - sentiment is positive. Fundamentally, the supply of domestic bauxite remains tight, and the price has increased slightly. The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing enterprises is stable in the peak season with internal differentiation. As of October 27, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas increased [10] - Viewpoint: It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the near term, and attention should be paid to downstream feedback at high prices [11] - Later attention: Geopolitical crisis development, macro - policy implementation, supply increase, and consumption release [12] Zinc - Logic: Last week, the zinc price was strong. The import of zinc ore is still significantly loss - making, and domestic zinc ore is in short supply. The operating rate of galvanizing decreased last week. The inventory of zinc ingots decreased due to downstream enterprises' cautious purchasing. The overall domestic inventory increased, with different trends in different regions [13] - Viewpoint: In the short term, the price will follow the overall non - ferrous metals to operate at a high level, but medium - and long - term supply increase will put pressure on the upside. Attention should be paid to the transmission from the mine end to the smelting end, and be vigilant against macro - risk events [13] - Later attention: Macro - policy implementation, mine - end production release, and consumption release [13] Tin - Logic: In September 2025, the domestic tin ore import volume decreased month - on - month and increased year - on - year. Indonesia's closure of illegal tin mines and the slow resumption of production in Myanmar have led to a tight supply situation. The domestic production and operating rate have rebounded, but the processing fee of smelters remains low. Downstream consumption in emerging fields is okay, but traditional sectors are cooling down [15] - Viewpoint: In the short term, there is a situation of weak supply and demand, and the tin price will be strongly sorted [15] - Later attention: Myanmar's resumption of production and countries' trade policies [15] 3.3 03品种数据（铝、锌、锡） Aluminum - Bauxite: The price of domestic high - grade bauxite in Henan increased week - on - week and year - on - year; the price of domestic low - grade bauxite in Henan increased week - on - week and year - on - year; the average price index of imported bauxite decreased week - on - week and year - on - year. The port arrival and departure volumes increased week - on - week and year - on - year [19][22] - Alumina: The domestic price in Henan decreased week - on - week and year - on - year; the full cost decreased week - on - week and year - on - year; the profit in Shanxi decreased week - on - week and year - on - year [25] - Electrolytic aluminum: The total cost decreased week - on - week and year - on - year; the regional price difference increased week - on - week and year - on - year. The operating rates of different downstream processing sectors showed different trends. The inventory in different regions and types also had different changes. The basis and monthly spread also changed [29][32][38] Zinc - Zinc concentrate: The price of domestic zinc concentrate increased week - on - week and decreased year - on - year; the domestic processing fee remained unchanged week - on - week and increased year - on - year; the imported processing fee decreased week - on - week. The enterprise production profit increased week - on - week and decreased year - on - year; the import profit and loss decreased week - on - week and year - on - year; the inventory of imported zinc concentrate in Lianyungang increased week - on - week and year - on - year [52][55] - Refined zinc: The social inventory of zinc ingots decreased week - on - week and increased year - on - year; the bonded - area inventory decreased week - on - week and year - on - year; the inventory of refined zinc in SHFE decreased week - on - week and increased year - on - year; the LME inventory decreased week - on - week and year - on - year [58] - Galvanizing: The output increased week - on - week and year - on - year; the operating rate decreased week - on - week and increased year - on - year; the raw material inventory decreased week - on - week and increased year - on - year; the finished - product inventory increased week - on - week and decreased year - on - year [61] - Zinc basis and monthly spread: The basis and monthly spread of zinc changed week - on - week and year - on - year [64][68] Tin - Refined tin: The combined output of Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces increased week - on - week and year - on - year; the combined operating rate increased week - on - week and year - on - year [73] - Tin ingot: The total inventory of SHFE tin ingots increased week - on - week and decreased year - on - year; the social inventory of tin ingots in different regions of China decreased week - on - week and year - on - year [76] - Tin concentrate processing fee: The processing fees in different regions remained unchanged week - on - week and decreased year - on - year [77] - Tin ore import profit and loss: The import profit and loss level decreased week - on - week and increased year - on - year [79] - Spot price: The average prices of tin concentrate in different regions increased week - on - week and year - on - year [83]

Report Overview - Report Title: "Black Industry Chain Weekly Report" [1] - Report Date: October 27, 2025 [2] - Report Issuer: Huabao Futures 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - **Overall Black Market**: The black market is expected to operate at a low level with a short - term rebound. The macro - environment has improved, and steel production restrictions support price rebounds. However, attention should be paid to macro policies and downstream demand [9]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate within a range. The supply is increasing, and the demand is slightly decreasing, but the pressure on inventory accumulation is within an acceptable range. The price of the main contract of Dalian iron ore is expected to be in the range of 760 - 785 yuan/ton, corresponding to an external market price of about 103 - 105 US dollars/ton [10]. - **Coal and Coke**: The short - term supply and demand of coal and coke fluctuate marginally, and the inventory pressure is temporarily not large. The price should be treated with cautious optimism. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production in the coal - coke - steel industry and changes in imported coal customs clearance [11]. - **Ferroalloys**: The supply of ferroalloys remains relatively loose, and the price is expected to be under pressure and decline weakly. Attention should be paid to domestic macro - policies, terminal demand, steel mill profits, production, and domestic production restrictions [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Market Review - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The prices of most black futures and spot products showed different degrees of changes last week. For example, the price of the main contract of hot - rolled coil increased by 1.44%, and the price of the main contract of coke increased by 4.86% [7]. 3.2 This Week's Black Market Forecast - **Logic**: The utilization rate of blast furnace iron - making capacity of 247 steel mills decreased slightly last week. The macro - environment improved, and Hebei launched a heavy - pollution weather emergency response, which is beneficial to the fundamentals of steel in the short term [9]. - **Viewpoint**: The black market is expected to operate at a low level with a short - term rebound. - **Later Attention**: Macro policies and downstream demand. 3.3 Variety Data 3.3.1 Finished Products - **Rebar** - **Production and Apparent Demand**: Last week, the production was 207.07 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 5.91 million tons; the apparent demand was 226.01 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 6.26 million tons [14]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory was 622.11 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 18.94 million tons [21]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil** - **Production and Apparent Demand**: Last week, the production was 322.46 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.62 million tons; the apparent demand was 326.73 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 11.18 million tons [25]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory was 414.92 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 4.27 million tons [29]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - **Supply**: The overseas ore shipment increased slightly week - on - week, and the arrival volume decreased rapidly for two consecutive weeks after reaching a new high this year [10]. - **Demand**: The domestic demand decreased week - on - week. The blast furnace operating rate increased, but the molten iron output decreased. The loss range of steel mills expanded, and the profitability rate dropped to the lowest level of the year [10]. - **Inventory**: The steel mill inventory increased slightly, and the port inventory continued to accumulate [10]. - **Price Forecast**: The price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 760 - 785 yuan/ton for the main contract of Dalian iron ore [10]. 3.3.3 Coal and Coke - **Supply**: Some coal mines in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia stopped production due to safety and mining area governance issues last week, and the coal production decreased [11]. - **Demand**: The profit of steel mills decreased, and the molten iron output decreased slightly [11]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of coke and coking coal increased slightly [82][89]. - **Price**: The second - round price increase of coke has not been finalized, and the price of coking coal is expected to be treated with cautious optimism [11]. 3.3.4 Ferroalloys - **Supply**: The production and operating rate of silicon - manganese and silicon - iron enterprises showed different degrees of changes, but the overall supply was still relatively loose [12]. - **Demand**: The weekly demand for silicon - manganese and silicon - iron of five major steel types increased slightly, but the demand may weaken in the future [12]. - **Inventory**: The silicon - manganese inventory continued to increase, and the silicon - iron inventory decreased slightly [12]. - **Cost**: The cost support of silicon - manganese and silicon - iron was relatively stable [12]. - **Price Forecast**: The price is expected to be under pressure and decline weakly [12].

Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core View - The steel price is running at a low level and there is a short - term rebound potential. The later stage should focus on macro - policies and downstream demand [3]. Group 3: Summary Based on Logical Content - After the Sino - US consultations, initial consensus has been reached, the macro - level has improved, and risk sentiment has recovered [2]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has publicly solicited opinions on the "Implementation Measures for Capacity Replacement in the Iron and Steel Industry (Draft for Comment)". It is strictly prohibited to increase the total steel production capacity in key areas, transfer steel production capacity from non - key areas to key areas, and transfer steel production capacity between different key areas. The capacity replacement ratio of ironmaking and steelmaking in each province (autonomous region, municipality) is not less than 1.5:1 [2]. - Since 12:00 on October 27, Hebei's Tangshan, Langfang, Handan, and Baoding have launched a level - II emergency response for heavy pollution weather. Some steel mills in Tangshan have received notices to extend the sintering machine production restriction time until the end of October, and blast furnaces are to be shut down by 30% according to capacity. As of October 24, the daily average hot metal output of steel mills in Tangshan was 39.69 tons. If the blast furnace is restricted by 30%, the daily average hot metal output will be affected by 9.1 tons, and a total of 40.95 tons of hot metal output will be affected in 4.5 days [2]. Group 4: Summary of Market Conditions - Last week, the finished product market fluctuated and the price rebounded slightly. The initial consensus after the Sino - US consultations improved the macro - level and increased risk sentiment. The level - II emergency response in some areas of Hebei since Monday is expected to affect the hot metal output by 40.95 tons, which will support the finished product price [2].