晨报 成材 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成材：缺乏驱动 盘整运行 逻辑：上周，247 家钢厂高炉产能利用率 84.93%，环比上周减少 0.99 个百分点；钢厂盈利率 35.93%，环比持平；日均铁水产量 226.55 万吨， 环比减少 2.65 万吨。全国 90 家独立电弧炉钢厂平均产能利用率 54.34%， 环比上升 1.57 个百分点。据乘联分会初步推算，12 月狭义乘用车零售总 市场预计为 230 万辆左右，环比微增 3.4%，同比下降 12.7%，其中新能源 零售可达 138 万辆左右，渗透率 6 ...

Report Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The finished product is expected to fluctuate and consolidate, and the price of aluminum ingots is expected to operate at a high level in the short term [2][3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Finished Products - Yungui region's short - process construction steel enterprises will have a shutdown and maintenance period during the Spring Festival (from mid - January to around the 11th - 16th day of the first lunar month), affecting 741,000 tons of construction steel production [2] - In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel plants has stopped production on January 5th, most will stop around mid - January, with daily output affected by about 16,200 tons [3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] - The finished product price continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low recently, with a downward - moving price center due to weak supply - demand and pessimistic market sentiment, and the winter storage is sluggish this year [3] Aluminum Ingots - Yesterday, Shanghai aluminum fluctuated at a high level. In November, the US CPI increased by 2.7% year - on - year, lower than 3% in September, and the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in January has slightly increased [2] - The new production capacity of domestic and Indonesian electrolytic aluminum is steadily released, and the weekly output has increased. The weekly operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 61.5% [3] - The primary aluminum alloy industry's operating rate remained at 60%, the same as last week; the aluminum plate and strip operating rate was stable at 65.0% but under pressure; the aluminum cable operating rate decreased by 0.4% to 62%; the aluminum profile operating rate decreased by 1.4 percentage points to 51.6% [3] - On December 15, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 596,000 tons, an increase of 12,000 tons from last Thursday and 1,000 tons from last Monday [3]

晨报 煤焦 煤焦：铁水产量继续下滑 盘面反弹仍有压力 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 12 月 19 日 逻辑：近日受市场情绪回暖影响，煤焦期货价格异动上涨，成交量放 大，但持仓增量不大，价格反弹可能更多在于前期空头持仓的逐步兑现利 润。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 短期基本面变化不大，本周主产地个别煤矿倒面结束以及为追赶年度 产能任务增产，产量小幅回升。但目前是煤矿年终检修高发期，短期产量 增加幅度或有限，随着下游焦钢企业陆续开始补库，炼焦煤成交有所回暖。 焦煤进口端仍处高位，继续对 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The finished products are expected to move downward with a weak trend and operate in a volatile and consolidating manner, while lithium carbonate is expected to stabilize in a range-bound manner, and attention should be paid to marginal changes in supply and demand [1][2][3] Summary by Relevant Content Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel producers will stop production for maintenance from mid - January, with a resumption around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting 741,000 tons of total output. Six Anhui short - process steel mills will have one stop on January 5th and most around mid - January, with an estimated daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [1][2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% MoM decrease and a 43.2% YoY increase [2] - The finished products continued to decline and hit a new low. In the weak supply - demand situation, the price center moved down due to pessimistic market sentiment. This year's winter storage is sluggish and provides weak price support. The outlook is for volatile consolidation [1][2] Lithium Carbonate - The main lithium carbonate contract closed at 106,160 yuan/ton, with slightly reduced trading volume, slightly increased positions, and a continued net - short position of the main force. The average price of electric carbon was 97,750 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 8,410 yuan/ton. Market transactions rely on a small number of enterprises' rigid - demand purchases, with few actual deals [1] - As of December 18, the weekly production rate of lithium carbonate was 51.4%, a 0.21% MoM increase, and the output was 22,045 tons, a 0.21% MoM increase. The spodumene process was the core growth factor. The 10,000 - ton/year spodumene production line of Jiangxi Qiangyu New Energy was ignited on December 18 [2] - As of December 18, affected by weakening demand from battery cell manufacturers and maintenance of some lithium iron phosphate plants, the output of lithium iron phosphate decreased by 2.2% MoM. The inventories of ternary and lithium iron phosphate continued to decline [2] - In November, the production of new - energy vehicles and automotive lithium - ion batteries increased YoY. As of December 7, the sales of new - energy vehicles increased significantly YoY and the penetration rate increased MoM, showing short - term adjustment but long - term resilience [2] - As of December 18, the weekly inventory of the SMM sample decreased by 0.9% MoM to 110,400 tons, continuing the destocking trend with a slower slope. The total inventory days decreased by 1.1% MoM to 26.2 days. Although there was inventory accumulation in other links, the overall inventory was still tight, supporting prices [2] - The Fed's interest - rate cuts, the Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Plan, and the arrangements of the Central Economic Work Conference are positive for the long - term supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate. The market sentiment is affected by the tight supply - demand balance, overseas resource/restart news, and domestic lithium mine capacity dynamics, leading to continued capital games [3]

晨报 碳酸锂 以伊冲突 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 右。2024 年 12 月 30 日-2025 年 1 月 5 日，10 个重点城市新建商品房成 证监许可【2011】14 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The product is in a low - level operation, with the fundamentals remaining weakly stable and moving in a low - level consolidation [1][3] Group 3: Summary of Key Data - In November 2025, the national production of crude steel was 69.87 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.9%, with a daily output of 2.329 million tons/day and a month - on - month increase of 0.3%; the production of pig iron was 62.34 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.7%, with a daily output of 2.078 million tons/day and a month - on - month decrease of 1.7%; the production of steel was 115.91 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.6%, with a daily output of 3.8637 million tons/day and a month - on - month increase of 1.0% [2] - From January to November 2025, the national cumulative production of crude steel was 892 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.0%, with a cumulative daily output of 266,970 tons; the production of pig iron was 774 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%, with a cumulative daily output of 231,750 tons; the production of steel was 1.333 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.0%, with a cumulative daily output of 399,030 tons [2] Group 4: Market Situation and Impact - Recently, the environmental protection production restrictions in Beijing, Hebei, and Tianjin in late December have attracted market attention. In Tianjin, most local steel strand factories have received environmental protection production restriction notices, with a 50% production restriction. However, due to recent demand issues, the steel strand manufacturers' production capacity utilization is about 60%, so this production restriction has little impact on them [2] - The product continued the previous day's narrow - range consolidation yesterday, with little change in fundamentals. Weak demand restricts the rebound of steel prices, and the support at the bottom of rebar at 3000 still exists. The domestic meeting last week had no overly unexpected policies, and there is a lack of drivers at the macro level. Currently, rebar has support at the 3000 mark, and attention should also be paid to the support strength of the raw material end [2] Group 5: Later Concerns - Macro policies and downstream demand conditions [3]

晨报 铝锭 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：价格高位震荡 关注宏观情绪 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:昨日沪铝偏强震荡。宏观上美联储内部对利率路径仍有分歧表 态，国内年底政策情绪支撑，关注更多宏观数据指引。 以伊冲突 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停 ...

晨报 煤焦 成文时间： 2025 年 12 月 18 日 逻辑：昨日煤焦期货价格窄幅震荡，夜盘受市场消息配合价格再度反 弹，国家发改委等部门发布《煤炭清洁高效利用重点领域标杆水平和基准 水平(2025 年版)》，将燃煤发电供热煤耗，煤制天然气等纳入范围，完 善煤炭清洁高效利用标杆水平，有待跟进政策的实际影响。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 煤焦：政策提振市场情绪 盘面震荡运行 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 短期基本面变化不大，本周主产地个别煤矿倒面结束以及为追赶年度 产能任务增产，产量小幅回升。 ...

成文时间： 2025 年 12 月 17 日 晨报 煤焦 煤焦：基本面表现仍弱 盘面承压运行 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 逻辑：昨日煤焦期货价格先抑后扬，尾盘收涨。现货市场总体弱稳， 市场竞拍流拍率稳步下降；焦炭价格完成 2 轮调降后暂稳。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 从基本面来看，煤矿持续减产以及下游补库逐步启动，上周矿端累库 速度放缓，部分煤矿降价之后销售好转。但由于市场情绪依旧消极，煤价 承压，行情止跌企稳仍需等待下游补库需求集中释放。焦煤进口端仍处高 位，继续对国内煤价形成压制，其中 ...

晨报 碳酸锂 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 证监许可【2011】1452 号 负责人：赵 毅 逻辑:昨日碳酸锂主力合约LC2605收盘至10.06万元/吨，价格震荡企稳， 成交量小幅下降 1.4%，但持仓放量，主力净空格局延续。截至收盘，SMM 数 据显示电碳均价 95，850 元/吨，主力合约基差收窄至-4，750 元/吨。上游 出货意愿提升，下游购货积极性下降。 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 右。2024 年 12 月 30 日-2025 年 1 月 5 日，10 个重点城市新建商品房成 交（签约）面积总计 223.4 万平方米，环比下降 40.3%，同比增长 43.2%。 成 ...