晨报 铝锭 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：库存维持积累 关注美联储会议 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 观点：预计价格短期高位震荡，关注宏观情绪和矿端消息。 后期关注/风险因素：关注宏观预期变动、地缘政治危机发展、矿端复 产情况、消费释放情况。 重要声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开的资料，我公司对信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证，也不保证包含的信 息和建议不会发生变更，我们已力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中观点、结论和建议仅供参考，投资者据此 做出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关。 地址：北京市海淀区海淀大街 8 号 19 层 ☎ 400-700-6700 www.zgfcc.com 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z00201 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Aluminum: Macro funds' bullish sentiment on prices remains, but environmental controls and bad weather have slowed the inventory accumulation mid - week. Aluminum prices are expected to remain strong at high levels in the short term. Attention should be paid to the development of macro events and downstream feedback [12]. - Zinc: Affected by the volatility of non - ferrous metals, zinc prices are relatively strong. In the medium - and long - term, the supply increase exerts pressure on the upside, but it will take time to materialize. Zinc prices will run at a high level in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro - risk events and inventory trends at home and abroad [14]. - Tin: Tin prices are at a high level, and it is advisable to avoid participation in the short term [15]. - Lithium Carbonate: It will fluctuate in a high - level range, with a game between "strong expectations" and "weak reality". Policy expectations and supply disruptions support the price bottom [16]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 01 Colorful Weekly Market Review - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The report shows the closing prices, weekly changes, and weekly price changes of the main futures contracts and spot prices of copper, aluminum, zinc, tin, and nickel from January 16th to January 23rd, 2026. For example, the main copper futures contract (CU2603) rose 0.57%, while the average copper spot price in Shanghai Wumaohu decreased 0.80% [9]. 3.2 02 This Week's Non - Ferrous Market Forecast - **Aluminum**: Macro factors such as geopolitical frictions and tariff uncertainties put pressure on the US dollar. On the fundamental side, some northern mining areas have staged production cuts due to weather, and the domestic ore price is expected to remain stable. The overall aluminum processing industry shows a pattern of stable operation with local fluctuations. Aluminum prices are expected to remain strong at high levels in the short term [12]. - **Zinc**: SMM Zn50 domestic weekly TC average price remained flat, and the SMM imported zinc concentrate index decreased. The supply of domestic zinc concentrates continues to weaken, and the overall supply - demand pattern in February is expected to remain unchanged. The galvanizing industry shows a "first - up - then - down" trend. Zinc prices will run at a high level in the short term [14]. - **Tin**: In December 2025, China's tin concentrate imports increased. The smelting plants in Yunnan and Jiangxi are operating at a high level, but there is limited room for further improvement. The demand is stable, and the market is optimistic about the semiconductor and new - energy vehicle industries after the festival. Tin prices are at a high level, and short - term participation should be avoided [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Last week, the lithium carbonate market rose strongly. The supply side is contracting comprehensively, the demand side has kinetic energy conversion and prominent structural contradictions, the inventory structure has deteriorated significantly, and the profit structure has prominent contradictions. It will fluctuate in a high - level range, with a game between "strong expectations" and "weak reality" [16]. 3.3 03 Variety Data 3.3.1 Aluminum - **Bauxite**: The prices of domestic high - and low - grade bauxite in Henan remained unchanged week - on - week; the average price index of imported bauxite decreased. The port arrival volume increased, while the departure volume decreased [21][24]. - **Alumina**: The domestic price in Henan decreased, the full cost decreased, and the profit in Shanxi increased [27]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The total cost decreased, and the regional price difference increased. The downstream processing industry's overall operating rate showed a mixed trend, with some rising and some remaining stable. The inventory in the bonded area decreased, the social inventory increased, and the inventory in the futures exchange also changed [29][36][41]. - **Spot and Basis**: The basis of SMM A00 aluminum decreased week - on - week, and the monthly spread also changed [47][48]. 3.3.2 Zinc - **Zinc Concentrate**: The price of domestic zinc concentrate decreased, the domestic processing fee remained unchanged, and the imported processing fee decreased. The enterprise production profit decreased, the import loss increased, and the imported zinc concentrate inventory in Lianyungang increased [57][60]. - **Refined Zinc**: The social inventory of zinc ingots decreased, the bonded area inventory remained unchanged, the inventory in the futures exchange changed [63]. - **Galvanizing**: The output and operating rate increased, and the raw material and finished - product inventories increased [67]. - **Basis and Monthly Spread**: The basis of SMM 0 zinc ingot decreased, and the monthly spread changed [71][75]. 3.3.3 Tin - **Refined Tin**: The combined output and operating rate of Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces increased [82]. - **Tin Ingot Inventory**: The SHFE tin ingot inventory and the Chinese regional social inventory increased [85]. - **Tin Concentrate Processing Fee**: The processing fees in different regions remained unchanged week - on - week and increased year - on - year [88]. - **Tin Ore Import Profit and Loss**: The import profit and loss level increased [89]. - **Spot Price**: The average prices in different regions increased [95]. 3.3.4 Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the main contract increased, the trading volume decreased, the open interest increased, and the basis decreased significantly [98]. - **Supply Side**: The overall operating rate and output decreased, with significant declines in the lithium - spodumene and recycling - material routes [100][105]. - **Demand Side**: The cathode material industry generally increased production and accumulated inventory, and the demand transmission was blocked. The total demand on the terminal side was under pressure, but energy storage showed strong performance [113][118]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory decreased slightly, the smelters and downstream accumulated inventory, and the social inventory increased [119]. - **Cost and Profit**: The raw - material market showed a differentiated trend, with overseas lithium - spodumene prices rising slightly and domestic lithium - ore prices generally falling back. The production and import profits were differentiated, and the delivery profit improved but was still under pressure [126][129].

【华宝期货】黑色产业链周报 华宝期货 2026.1.26 以上内容谨代表个人观点，投资者据此做出的任何投资决策与华宝期货有限公司和作者无关，据此入市交易，风险自负！投资有风险，入市需谨慎！ 目录 01 周度行情回顾 02 本周黑色行情预判 03 品种数据（成材、煤焦、铁合金） 以上内容谨代表个人观点，投资者据此做出的任何投资决策与华宝期货有限公司和作者无关，据此入市交易，风险自负！投资有风险，入市需谨慎！ 01 周度行情回顾 02 本周黑色行情预判 以上内容谨代表个人观点，投资者据此做出的任何投资决策与华宝期货有限公司和作者无关，据此入市交易，风险自负！投资有风险，入市需谨慎！ 成材：驱动不强 钢价整理运行 以上内容谨代表个人观点，投资者据此做出的任何投资决策与华宝期货有限公司和作者无关，据此入市交易，风险自负！投资有风险，入市需谨慎！ Ø 逻辑：上周，247家钢厂高炉炼铁产能利用率85.51%，环比上周增加0.03个百分点 ；钢厂盈利率40.69%，环比上周增加0.86 个百分点；日均铁水产量 228.1万吨，环比上周增加0.09万吨。上周，全国94家独立电弧炉钢厂平均产能利用率57.94%，环 比下降0. ...

晨报 铁矿石 铁矿石： 需求驱动趋弱 逢高空配为主 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 逻辑：近期黑色系淡季特征明显且宏观预期较弱，铁矿石受供给端回升预期以及需求端因突 发安全事件影响而减弱，叠加补库需求驱动逐步减弱，价格高位回落。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 供应方面：当前外矿发运进入发运淡季，周度发运量连续三周环比回落，根据季节性规律， 在 2 月中旬之前，外矿发运将保持环比走弱态势但整体会高于去年同期，主因是去年同期澳洲受 飓风影响导致发运基数偏低；国产矿供给同样处于淡季，整体看，供给端步入季节性环比收缩阶 段，但供给端支撑力度提升则需要出现超预期下滑。 成 材：武秋婷 需求方面：国内需求小幅回升，钢厂盈利水平小幅回升但低于去年同 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The report believes that lithium carbonate will operate strongly at a high level, and attention should be focused on cost and marginal changes in supply and demand [2][4] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Lithium Carbonate Futures and Spot Market - Last week, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures closed at 181,520 yuan/ton. The net short position of the main funds continued, the long - short ratio decreased month - on - month, and the warehouse receipts decreased slightly by 730 tons to 28,156 tons. The average price of SMM electric carbon was 171,000 yuan/ton. The trading market was active last week. In the spot market, upstream producers were more willing to sell, with some still holding back supply. Downstream buyers had a mix of inventory building and waiting, and scattered purchases slowed down after the price increase. Overall, transactions were mainly based on demand [2] Supply and Demand Fundamentals - **Supply side**: Last week, the raw material market showed a differentiated trend. Overseas lithium spodumene remained stable with a slight increase, while domestic spot lithium ore prices generally declined. The total weekly operating rate of SMM lithium carbonate was 50.99% (- 1.7%), and the operating rate of each process route decreased month - on - month due to maintenance plans. The total output was 22,217 tons (- 388 tons), with a slight decrease in supply [3] - **Demand side**: There was a significant structural differentiation. Last week, the output of SMM lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials decreased slightly month - on - month, and inventories were reduced. The output of SMM power cells decreased slightly. As of January 18, the penetration rate of new energy vehicle sales increased to 55.6%, and the production schedule of energy - storage cells increased slightly to support demand [3] - **Inventory**: Last week, the social inventory of the four - place sample of SMM increased by 2% (+ 860 tons) month - on - month, the sample weekly inventory decreased slightly by 0.7% (- 783 tons) month - on - month, and the total inventory days were 27.8 days. The inventory days of the upstream and downstream increased to 5.1 days and 9.6 days respectively, and the inventory days of other links decreased to 13.1 days, showing a significant differentiation in the inventory structure [3] Macro - policy Level - **Demand side**: Multiple incentives such as subsidies for car trade - ins and battery export tax rebates stimulate terminal consumption and improve macro - liquidity - **Supply side**: On January 15, the National Development and Reform Commission proposed to introduce management measures for the comprehensive utilization of new energy vehicle power batteries, which will improve the recycling threshold and eliminate backward production capacity, optimize the domestic supply structure in the long term, and raise the cost support center - **Industrial planning**: The industrial plan for Qinghai Salt Lake, the key points of the "15th Five - Year Plan" for energy storage, and a series of deployments at the Central Economic Work Conference have formed synergistic benefits to support long - term supply - demand balance. The central bank's structural interest rate cut indirectly strengthens the long - term macro - positive atmosphere [4]

Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report [1][2][3][4][5] 2) Core Views - For building materials, the price is expected to move in an oscillatory and consolidative manner, with the focus shifting downward and showing a weak performance [2][4] - For aluminum ingots, the price is expected to be strong at a high level in the short - term, showing a strong oscillatory trend [2][5] 3) Summary by Related Contents Building Materials - **Production Suspension**: Yunnan - Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises will have a production suspension during the Spring Festival from mid - January, with a resumption around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills, 1 stopped production on January 5th, and most of the rest will stop around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [3][4] - **Real - estate Transaction**: From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [4] - **Market Situation**: The price of building materials continued to decline oscillatory yesterday, reaching a new low. In a situation of weak supply and demand, market sentiment is pessimistic, with low enthusiasm for winter storage and weak price support [4] - **Later - stage Concerns**: Macro - policies and downstream demand [4] Aluminum Ingots - **Macroeconomic Factors**: Due to frictions between the US and NATO on the Greenland issue, sanctions on Iran, concerns about the Fed's independence, and uncertainties in tariffs, the US dollar is under pressure, and the overall non - ferrous metals are running strongly [3][5] - **Supply - side Situation**: In the north, some mining areas have reduced production due to weather. In the Henan Xin'an area, bauxite production was suspended due to blizzards and is now gradually resuming. The supply of ore has decreased by about 80% and is gradually recovering. In the south, domestic ore production is stable, and the price of domestic ore is expected to remain stable in the short - term [4] - **Industry Operation**: The overall aluminum processing start - up rate was 60.9%, up 0.7 percentage points from last week. Different sub - industries have different situations, with some affected by environmental protection, weather, etc. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic main consumption areas reached 777,000 tons on January 26, an increase of 28,000 tons from last Monday [4] - **Price Outlook**: The price of aluminum is expected to be strong at a high level in the short - term, and attention should be paid to macro - events, geopolitical crises, mine resumption, and consumption release [5]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - Recently, the overall supply of coal and coke has increased month - on - month, the downstream replenishment intensity is average, the coal and coke spot market has weak rebound, and some coal types have turned to decline. The futures market lacks upward drivers, so investors should operate with caution [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Market Performance - Last week, the coal and coke futures prices first declined and then rose, with a slight weekly decline. The spot market rose and then stabilized, with Mongolian 5 raw coal leading the decline by about 50 yuan/ton. Coke enterprises planned to raise coke prices, but downstream resistance was strong, and the price increase was still in the game and not fully implemented [2] Supply Side - Coal supply is generally strong. This month, coal mines have gradually resumed production. Last week, the output of coking raw coal and clean coal increased to 1.994 million tons and 770,000 tons respectively. The raw coal at mines continued to increase in inventory, and the clean coal changed from inventory decline to a small increase. Downstream coke and steel enterprises slowed down the raw material procurement rhythm [2] - In the import aspect, last week, the daily customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port was 158,800 tons, a decrease of 37,000 tons compared with the previous week. The port inventory remained at a relatively high level. The overall arrival volume of seaborne coal in January decreased compared with December last year [2] - In December 2025, imported coking coal was 13.7698 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.31% and a year - on - year increase of 28.57%, reaching a record high for a single - month import volume. The annual import volume was 118.6257 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.6269 million tons, a decline of 2.97%. Among them, Mongolian coal imports in December were 6.7175 million tons, and the cumulative annual imports were 60.0739 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.2816 million tons, an increase of 5.8% [2] Demand Side - The profitability rate of steel mills is acceptable, rising to about 40%. Last week, the blast furnace operating rate remained stable, and the daily average pig iron output was 2.281 million tons, a slight increase of 90,000 tons compared with the previous week and an increase of 265,000 tons compared with the same period last year [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The report believes that the finished steel will be in a low - level consolidation operation [4] Group 3: Summary According to the Logic Section - In December 2025, the crude steel output of 70 countries/regions included in the World Steel Association's statistics was 139.6 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.7%. The global crude steel output in 2025 was 1.8494 billion tons [3] - In mid - January, the average daily output of key steel enterprises' crude steel was 1.979 million tons, a 0.9% decrease from the previous period; the steel inventory was 16.13 million tons, a 7.3% increase from the previous ten - day period and a 0.8% increase from the same period last month [3] - Last week, the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 85.51%, an increase of 0.03 percentage points from the previous week; the steel mill profitability rate was 40.69%, an increase of 0.86 percentage points from the previous week; the daily average hot metal output was 2.281 million tons, an increase of 0.09 million tons from the previous week [3] - Last week, the average capacity utilization rate of 94 independent electric arc furnace steel mills in the country was 57.94%, a decrease of 0.05 percentage points from the previous week and an increase of 41.18 percentage points year - on - year [3] - The finished steel fluctuated last week, first falling and then rising. The late - week rebound was driven by the raw material end, and the steel price continued to consolidate in the low - level range. The market drive is not strong, and the weak demand characteristics put some pressure on the price. The macro - market has been relatively calm recently, providing no trend guidance for the price [3] Group 4: Summary According to the View Section - The finished steel will be in a low - level consolidation operation [4] - Later, attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is expected to operate in a volatile and upward - trending manner, with a focus on cost and marginal changes in supply and demand [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - The main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated within a range and closed at 168,780 yuan/ton. The net short position of the main funds continued, the long - short ratio decreased month - on - month, and the warehouse receipts increased slightly by 230 tons to 28,886 tons. The average price of SMM electric carbon was 164,500 yuan/ton [1] Supply - side Situation - Last week, raw material prices increased by over 17% month - on - month, strengthening cost support. This week, the total weekly operating rate of SMM lithium carbonate was 50.99% (-1.7%), and the operating rates of various process routes decreased month - on - month due to maintenance plans. The total production of SMM was 22,217 tons (-388 tons), with a slight decrease in supply [2] Demand - side Situation - There was a significant structural differentiation on the demand side. Last week, the production of SMM iron - lithium and ternary materials decreased slightly month - on - month, and inventory was destocked. The production of SMM power cells decreased slightly. As of January 18, the penetration rate of SMM new - energy vehicle sales rose to 55.6%, and the production schedule of energy - storage cells increased slightly to support demand [2] Inventory Situation - The sample social inventory in four regions of SMM increased by 3.1% (+1,290 tons) month - on - month, the sample weekly inventory was destocked again, decreasing slightly by 0.7% (-783 tons) month - on - month. The total inventory days were 27.8 days, with the upstream and downstream inventory days increasing to 5.1 days and 9.6 days respectively, and the inventory days in other links decreasing to 13.1 days. The inventory structure showed significant differentiation [2] Macro - policy Situation - On the demand side, multiple incentives such as subsidies for car trade - ins and battery export tax rebates stimulate terminal consumption and improve macro - liquidity. On the supply side, on January 15, the National Development and Reform Commission proposed to introduce management measures for the comprehensive utilization of new - energy vehicle power batteries, which will optimize the domestic supply structure and raise the cost support center in the long term. Industrial plans such as the Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Plan, the key points of the "15th Five - Year" plan for energy storage, and a series of deployments in the Central Economic Work Conference form synergistic benefits to support long - term supply - demand balance. The central bank's structural interest rate cuts indirectly strengthen the long - term macro - positive atmosphere [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoint - Recently, the overall supply of coking coal and coke has increased month - on - month, the downstream replenishment intensity is average, the spot market for coking coal and coke has a weak rebound, and individual coal types have turned down. The futures price lacks upward drivers, so cautious operation is recommended [4] 3. Summary by Related Contents Market Performance - The decline of coking coal and coke futures prices has slowed down, with prices fluctuating slightly. The spot market has stabilized after the increase. This week, the price of Meng 5 raw coal has turned down, with a decline of over 50 yuan/ton. Coking enterprises in many places plan to raise coke prices, but it's still in the negotiation process and not fully implemented [3] Import Data - In December 2025, the import of coking coal was 13.7698 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.31% and a year - on - year increase of 28.57%, reaching a record high for a single - month import volume. The annual import volume was 118.6257 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.6269 million tons, a decline of 2.97%. Among them, the import of Mongolian coal in December was 6.7175 million tons, and the cumulative annual import was 60.0739 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.2816 million tons, an increase of 5.8% [3] Fundamental Situation - **Supply**: The overall supply of coal is relatively strong. After the start of the new year, coal mines have gradually resumed production. This week, the output of coking raw coal and clean coal has increased to 1.994 million tons and 0.77 million tons respectively. The raw coal at the mine end has continued to increase in inventory, and the clean coal has changed from inventory reduction to a slight inventory increase. The downstream coking and steel enterprises have a slow procurement rhythm for raw materials. At the import end, the daily customs clearance volume at the Ganqimaodu Port for Mongolian coal last week was 0.1958 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.0312 million tons and an increase of 0.0488 million tons compared with the same period last year. The port inventory remains at a relatively high level [4] - **Demand**: The profitability rate of steel mills is acceptable, rising to about 40%. This week, the blast furnace operating rate remained stable, and the daily average pig iron output was 2.281 million tons, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.0009 million tons and an increase of 0.0265 million tons compared with the same period last year [4]