晨报 铁矿石 铁矿石：黑色系持续调整 矿价短期区间运行 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 价格：价格区间震荡运行。i2509 合约价格区间 785 元/吨~810 元/吨。外盘 FE09 合约价 格区间 101~104 美金/吨。 2025 年 8 月 1 日 后期关注/风险因素："反内卷"政策细则、发运回升速度、终端需求韧性 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 逻辑：昨天黑色系整体下挫，成材以及碳元素下跌明显，铁矿石价格相对平稳，主要原因 一方面是会议政策增量预期落空，"反内卷"表述弱化；二是美联储鹰派表述，美元出现大幅 升值，利空大宗商品，美联储政策利率第五次按兵不 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a wait - and - see approach [4] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the steel products industry are weak, and steel prices are undergoing a correction. The market is mainly influenced by macro factors and sentiment, with large price fluctuations. It is recommended to mainly observe the market [2][3][4] Group 3: Summary by Related Contents Steel Inventory - This week, the total steel inventory was 13.5189 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.01539 million tons. Among them, the steel mill inventory was 0.40952 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.0001 million tons; the social inventory was 0.94237 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.01529 million tons [3] - The inventory of steel billets in major warehouses and ports in Tangshan was 1.223 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.0552 million tons and a 12.22% increase compared to the same period last year [3] Production Line Operation - Among the 87 section steel production lines in Tangshan, 27 were actually in operation, with an overall start - up rate of 45.76%, a 5.08% decrease from last week. The capacity utilization rate of profiles was 46.12%, a 0.80% increase from last week [3] Steel Price - On July 31, the ex - factory tax - included price of common square billet resources in Qian'an, Tangshan was cumulatively reduced by 100 yuan, reaching 3080 yuan per ton [3] Market Situation - During the research period, the steel market trend slowed down week - on - week, trading activity decreased, there was more wait - and - see attitude at high prices, and inventory continued to accumulate slightly. Some domestic trade resources at ports were still being shipped for export [3] - In terms of weekly data, both supply and demand of rebar decreased and inventory increased, while for hot - rolled steel, both supply, demand, and inventory increased. The weekly fundamentals were neutral to weak [3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Views - For building materials, the view is that it will operate in a range - bound and consolidating manner, with a downward - moving price center and a pessimistic market sentiment in a supply - demand weak situation. For aluminum, it is expected to operate in a short - term range, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and downstream start - up [2][3]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Building Materials - **Production Disruptions**: Yunnan - Guizhou short - process building steel producers' Spring Festival shutdown is expected to affect 741,000 tons of building steel output. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills, 1 stopped production on January 5, and most others will stop around mid - January, with an estimated daily output impact of 16,200 tons during the shutdown [1][2]. - **Real Estate Transaction**: From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% week - on - week decrease and a 43.2% year - on - year increase [2]. - **Market Situation**: Building materials prices continued to decline, hitting a new low. In the supply - demand weak pattern, market sentiment is pessimistic, and winter storage is sluggish, with weak price support [2]. Aluminum - **Alumina**: As of Thursday, the total built - in capacity of metallurgical alumina in China is 110.32 million tons/year, and the operating capacity is 90.92 million tons/year. The weekly alumina operating rate increased by 2.02 percentage points to 82.41%. There are both restored and newly - added maintenance capacities in the South, and some northern alumina plants increased their operating capacity due to profit [2]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: In July, China's electrolytic aluminum output increased by 1.05% year - on - year and 3.11% month - on - month. The operating capacity increased slightly in July, mainly due to the start - up of the second - phase replacement project in Shandong - Yunnan. On July 31, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in major consumption areas was 544,000 tons, an increase of 11,000 tons from Monday and 34,000 tons from last Thursday. The weekly出库 volume was 92,500 tons, a significant decrease of 15,700 tons from the previous week, reaching a new low this year [2]. - **Market Outlook**: In the off - season, inventory is accumulating, and demand pressure restricts the upside. Short - term aluminum prices are expected to be range - bound, and attention should be paid to the inventory - consumption trend [3].

晨报 铁矿石 铁矿石：宏观政策预期落空 矿价短期区间运行 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 重要声明： 近期黑色系市场主要交易"反内卷"破除低价的宏大叙事逻辑，成材价格与原材料价格共 振大幅上行，但短期宏观政策增量减弱以及产业政策预期降低，叠加美联储降息预期弱化，预 计黑色系将进入调整。 供应方面：短期供给端支撑边际减弱，外矿发运将逐步进入季节性回升周期，其中澳洲 BHP、 FMG 矿山检修期结束后发运回升，巴西发运保持相对中位偏高水平；短期到港量保持高位持续 回落，即现实端供给压力偏弱，但当前价格回升至 100 美金/吨，若价格持续高位或刺激非主流 矿中期供应增加。 原材料：程 鹏 需求方面：国内日均铁水量小幅下降，本期日 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The finished products are expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, with the price center shifting downward and running weakly [1][2] - The aluminum ingot price is expected to run at a high level in the short term, with short - term price range - bound operation and subsequent attention to the inventory - consumption trend [2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - Yungui region's short - process construction steel enterprises' Spring Festival shutdown and maintenance time is mostly in mid - to late January, with a resumption around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total building steel output of 741,000 tons during the shutdown. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills started to shut down on January 5, and most of the rest will shut down around mid - January, with an estimated daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [1][2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2] - The finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, reaching a new low recently. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the winter storage this year is sluggish, with weak price support [2] Aluminum Ingots - Macroscopically, the Fed maintained the interest rate unchanged at the meeting, which was in line with market expectations and the fifth consecutive decision to maintain the interest rate this year. Powell said it was too early to say whether the Fed would cut the federal funds rate in September as the financial market expected [1] - The alumina market remains in an oversupply situation. Domestic bauxite supply is limited in the short term, and prices are expected to remain stable. Imported bauxite inventories at ports and alumina plants are high. Although the alumina futures price has risen, the oversupply pattern is hard to change, and the spot price growth is slow. The bauxite price is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term [2] - As of July 31, the domestic mainstream consumption area's electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory was 544,000 tons, an increase of 11,000 tons from Monday and 34,000 tons from last Thursday. The domestic aluminum ingot inventory has lost its advantage of being at a three - year low. The weekly出库 volume of aluminum ingots in major domestic consumption areas was 92,500 tons, a significant decrease of 15,700 tons from the previous period, reaching a new low this year [2] - Since late July, due to the decrease in the proportion of molten aluminum, the domestic aluminum ingot supply pressure remains high, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. The current off - season inventory accumulation and demand - side pressure limit the upward space. Short - term aluminum prices are expected to be range - bound [2][3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Report's Core View - Steel prices are expected to have increased short - term volatility and overall strong performance [2] 3) Summary by Content - On July 30, the China Metal Materials Circulation Association issued an initiative to resist "involution - style competition" and promote the scientific and orderly development of the steel circulation industry, advocating fair competition based on product quality, service value, and technological innovation [1] - This week, the average hot - metal cost of mainstream sample steel mills in Tangshan was 2097 yuan/ton (ex - tax), and the average billet cost was 2843 yuan/ton (tax - included), up 35 yuan/ton week - on - week. Compared with the current billet price of 3180 yuan/ton, the average profit per ton of steel mills was 337 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton week - on - week [1] - From July 1 - 27, the retail sales of the national passenger vehicle market were 1.445 million units, a 9% increase compared to the same period last July, a 19% decrease compared to the same period last month. The cumulative retail sales since the beginning of this year were 12.346 million units, a 11% increase year - on - year [1] - Yesterday, finished products first rose and then fell. At night, they reached a new high during the rebound, and then fluctuated and declined in the morning. Currently, the downstream demand for finished products is weak, especially for building materials in the off - season, and rainfall in many places has a great impact on construction sites. However, the macro - sentiment is strong, and anti - involution policies support prices [1]

铁矿石：经贸会谈符合预期 矿价短期区间运行 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 晨报 铁矿石 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 价格：价格区间震荡偏强运行。i2509 合约价格区间 785 元/吨~810 元/吨。外盘 FE09 合约 价格区间 101~104 美金/吨。 逻辑：昨日成材增仓上行，焦煤触底回升，铁矿石价格相对平稳。中美第三轮经济贸易会 谈结果基本符合市场预期，美国对等关税（24%暂停）+基础关税（10%）以及我方反制关税措施 均展期 90 天，短期关税影响将进一步弱化。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 负责人：赵 毅 重要声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开的资料，我公司对信息的准确 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term fluctuations of steel prices will increase, and the overall trend will be relatively strong [1][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Real Estate Market - From July 21st to 27th, the total transaction (signed) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 1.4137 million square meters, with a month - on - month increase of 34.1%; the total transaction (signed) area of second - hand housing was 2.1341 million square meters, with a month - on - month increase of 5.8% [2] Home Appliance Industry - The latest production scheduling report of three major white goods released by Industry Online shows that the total scheduled production of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in August 2025 is 26.97 million units, a 4.9% decrease compared to the actual production in the same period last year [2] Steel Industry - On July 29th, the average cost of 76 independent electric arc furnace construction steel mills was 3,343 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 1 yuan/ton; the average profit was - 21 yuan/ton, and the valley - electricity profit was 79 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 7 yuan/ton [2] - Market news indicates that there will be restrictions on pollutant emissions in six provinces in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region and surrounding areas before the September military parade. Affected by this news, steel prices rebounded significantly, basically recovering the previous day's decline. Currently, the fundamentals of steel have not changed much, and the market trend is mainly dominated by macro factors and market sentiment [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - After continuous surges in the futures market, market sentiment has been released. Coupled with exchange rule restrictions, coal prices lack upward momentum. In the short term, price fluctuations will intensify, and it is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach [4] 3. Summary by Related Content Market Performance - Yesterday, market sentiment gradually cooled. Coal and coke futures prices hit the daily limit during the session, and the weak trend continued at night. The spot market remained stable for the time being, and quotes for some port resources adjusted downward following the futures market. Last weekend, coke producers initiated the fourth round of coke price hikes, and some steel mills have accepted them [3] - Since July, a series of positive news such as "anti - involution" and "stable growth" have stimulated the market. Coupled with improved supply - demand fundamentals and the National Energy Administration's inspection of coal mine over - production, the market sentiment to buy has exploded, and coal prices have soared continuously, with suspected excessive speculation. Last Friday after the session, the exchange adjusted the opening limits for coking coal. The daily opening volume of the JM2509 contract was reduced from no more than 2000 lots to no more than 500 lots [3] Fundamental Analysis - In terms of fundamentals, coal mines in major production areas have continued the复产 rhythm. Although there are still sporadic production suspensions and cuts in some areas, overall production has continued to increase slightly. The speculative replenishment demand in the market has been concentratedly released, and coking coal in some production areas is in short supply, with mine - end inventories continuously decreasing [4] - On the demand side, recently, coking plants and steel mills have accelerated their raw material replenishment. The available days of coking coal inventory in factories have rebounded from a low level. Last week, the average daily hot metal output of steel mill blast furnaces remained at around 2.42 million tons, supporting raw material demand [4]

Group 1 - Report industry investment rating: Not provided Group 2 - Core view: Short - term fluctuations increase [1][3] Group 3 - National Bureau of Statistics data shows that from January to June, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide was 343.65 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8%. Among them, the profit of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased 13.7 times year - on - year [2] - Last week, the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.81%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.08 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.20 percentage points; the daily average pig iron output was 2.4223 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.21 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 2.62 million tons [2] - The average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills nationwide was 55.49%, a month - on - month increase of 3.7 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 10.98 percentage points. The average operating rate was 72.02%, a month - on - month increase of 6.94 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.76 percentage points [2] - The finished products pulled back yesterday. Both rebar and hot - rolled coils closed with bare - headed medium negative lines, making a large retracement of the gains since last Tuesday. Driven by a series of macro - level positive factors such as anti - involution and the Yarlung Zangbo Hydropower Station, the black series had a large increase, with coking coal leading the rise and finished products following [2] - After the Dalian Commodity Exchange imposed trading limits on coking coal after the market on Friday, coking coal hit the daily limit on Monday, and the finished products also had a large decline. Currently, the fundamentals of steel are average, the weak demand situation remains unchanged, and prices still have room for adjustment due to the huge recent increase in related varieties. However, the macro - level sentiment has changed significantly, and there will still be fluctuations in prices [2] Group 4 - Later concerns: macro - level policies; supply - side production reduction; downstream demand [3]