晨报 煤焦 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 7 月 28 日 逻辑：上周，受煤炭市场核查超产相关政策影响，市场看涨情绪激增， 焦煤期货价格大幅拉升，周涨幅超 35%，上周五夜盘价格开始回落。现货 市场跟随偏强，焦价完成第 3 轮提涨，周末期间焦企开始第 4 轮提涨。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 7 月份以来，"反内卷""稳增长"等一系列利多消息刺激，叠加基 本面供需有所改善，国家能源局核查煤矿超产，市场看涨情绪爆发，煤价 连续涨停式拉涨，上周五盘后，交易所发布 JM2509 合约的单日开仓量不 得超过 500 手，夜盘焦煤价格大幅回落。 煤焦：交易所下调焦煤单日开仓 盘面震荡加剧 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-626885 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The成材is expected to move in a range with consolidation, while the aluminum price is expected to be strong in the short - term within a range, with the成材price showing a downward trend and the aluminum price facing a slow inventory accumulation situation [1][2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs 1.成材 - Yungui region's short - process construction steel enterprises are expected to affect a total of 741,000 tons of construction steel production during the Spring Festival shutdown. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills have different shutdown plans, with a daily production impact of about 16,200 tons [1][2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, with a month - on - month decrease of 40.3% and a year - on - year increase of 43.2% [2] - The成材price continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the winter storage is sluggish, with the price expected to move in a range with consolidation [1][2] - Later, attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [2] 2. Aluminum (including raw materials and aluminum ingots) - As of last Thursday, the national metallurgical - grade alumina had a total built - in production capacity of 110.32 million tons/year and a total operating capacity of 89.57 million tons/year, with the weekly operating rate up 0.45 percentage points to 81.19%. The alumina market remains in an oversupply situation [2] - The supply of domestic bauxite is limited, and the price is expected to remain stable. The inventory of imported bauxite is high, and the price is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term. Future price trends depend on factors such as the rainy season in Guinea, alumina operating capacity, and profitability [2] - As of July 24, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 510,000 tons, showing an increase. The reduction in aluminum rod production since the end of June has led to an increase in the proportion of aluminum ingot casting, and the arrival of goods is the core driver of inventory accumulation in the off - season [2] - In the current off - season, the inventory is slowly accumulating, and the demand pressure limits the upside. The aluminum price is expected to be strong in the short - term within a range, and later attention should be paid to the macro - expectations, geopolitical crises, mine resumption, and consumption release [2][3]

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The continuous rise in the futures price of coking coal has released the bullish sentiment, but the follow - up increase of downstream products is significantly weaker than that of coking coal, which may suppress the rebound rhythm of coal prices. It is recommended to be cautious and pay attention to the adjustment risk of the market [3] - Later, pay attention to the changes in the blast furnace operation of steel mills and the resumption of production of coal mines [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content Market Situation - Yesterday, the futures price of coking coal continued to rise and closed at the daily limit at the end of the session. The spot market followed suit strongly, and some coke enterprises started the third round of coke price increase. After the market rally, the futures price was significantly higher than the spot price [2] - Since July, a series of positive news has stimulated the market, and the improvement of the fundamental supply - demand situation has led to an outbreak of bullish sentiment. After the continuous rise of coal prices, the resistance to further upward movement has increased [2] Fundamental Analysis - The main coal - producing areas continue the resumption of production. Although there are still sporadic production stoppages and reductions in some areas, the overall output continues to increase slightly. The speculative replenishment demand in the market is concentratedly released, and coking coal in some producing areas is in short supply. The mine - end inventory continues to decline [3] - On the demand side, recently, coking plants and steel mills have accelerated the replenishment of raw materials. The available days of coking coal inventory in factories have rebounded from a low level. This week, the average daily hot metal output of steel mill blast furnaces remained at about 2.42 million tons, supporting the demand for raw materials [3]

晨报 成材 成材：情绪回升 钢价反弹 逻辑：中钢协：7 月中旬，重点钢企粗钢平均日产 214.1 万吨，环比 增长 2.1%；钢材库存量 1566 万吨，环比上一旬增长 3.9%，比上月同旬下 降 3.4%。国家发展改革委、市场监管总局就《中华人民共和国价格法修 正草案（征求意见稿）》公开征求意见，其中提出，完善低价倾销的认定 标准，规范市场价格秩序，治理"内卷式"竞争；完善价格串通、哄抬价 格、价格歧视等不正当价格行为认定标准。本周，五大品种钢材产量 866.97 万吨，环比下降 0.1%；钢材总库存 1336.5 万吨，环比下降 0.1%； 钢材消费量为 868.13 万吨，其中建材消费增 2.7%，板材消费降 1.7%。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 成 材：武秋婷 受益于反内卷宏观利好，黑色系延续涨势，成材继续创反弹新高。昨 日的周度数据上，螺纹钢表需出现较大上升，其他材基本面无太大变化。 近期的市场情绪带动钢价波动加大，叠加月底的国内会议，短期或仍偏强 运行。 观点：偏强运行。 本报告中的信息均来源于公开的资料，我公司对信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证，也不保证包含的信 息和建议不会发生变更，我 ...

晨报 铝锭 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：资金情绪有所降温 库存小幅积累 投资咨询业务资格： 以伊冲突 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:昨日铝价高位震荡。宏观上海外关税相继确认且低于早前，不确 定风险降低，有利于海外需求恢复；国内"反内卷"相关政策带动工业金 属上涨，长期"促销费、稳增长"的基调不变，但资金情绪有所降温，价 格高位反复。 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 右。2024 年 12 月 30 日-2025 年 1 月 5 日，10 个重点城市新建商品房成 交（ ...

晨报 煤焦 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 7 月 24 日 逻辑：昨日，焦煤期货价格延续涨势，尾盘涨停收盘。钢矿价格反弹 表现乏力，将对煤价上涨形成压力。现货市场维持偏强，焦炭第 2 轮提涨 陆续落地。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 7 月份以来，一系列利多消息刺激，叠加基本面供需有所改善，市场 看涨情绪爆发。7 月初中央财经委员会明确反对行业内卷化竞争，首次释 放"激发合理涨价与优化产能"的政策信号；7 月 18 日工信部新闻发布 会宣布，将在煤炭、钢铁、化工、有色等十大重点领域推行"稳增长与去 产能"协同政策；本周流传的国家能源局发布煤炭超产核查文件进一步引 爆行情。煤价连续拉涨后，继续上行阻力增加。 原材料：程 鹏 从基本面来看，主产地煤矿延续复产节奏，部分区域虽仍有零星停产、 减产，但整体产量仍继续小幅增长，市场投机补库需求集中释放，部分产 地焦煤呈现供不应求态势。需求端，近期焦化厂 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move in a volatile and weak manner, with the focus shifting downward [1][2] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to be relatively strong in the short - term, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and downstream starts [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Finished Products - During the Spring Festival, short - process construction steel enterprises in Yunnan and Guizhou regions are expected to affect the total output of construction steel by 74.1 tons, and 6 short - process steel mills in Anhui will also have production cuts, with a daily output reduction of about 1.62 tons for some [1][2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities decreased by 40.3% month - on - month and increased by 43.2% year - on - year [2] - The price of finished products continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and winter storage is sluggish, so the price support is weak [2] Aluminum - From January to June, China's cumulative import of bauxite increased by 34% year - on - year. With some enterprises starting maintenance in late July, the operating capacity of alumina may decline, while the demand in the southwest region will increase due to the commissioning of some electrolytic aluminum capacity replacement projects. However, the supply of alumina is still relatively loose overall [2] - As of July 21, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 49.80 tons, with fluctuations. The reduction of aluminum rod production at the end of the month led to an increase in ingot production, and the increase in supply was the core driver of inventory accumulation in the off - season [2] - Macro risks are increasing, and short - term policy boosts the metal price. The short - term aluminum price is expected to be relatively strong in the range, and attention should be paid to the inventory - consumption trend [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is trading on the positive expectations under the policy orientation of "anti - involution" and "stable growth". The unexpected release of the over - production verification policy has led to the continued release of market excitement, driving the futures and spot prices to run strongly in resonance. However, attention should be paid to the technical correction risk after the rapid rise of the market [3] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Market Performance - Yesterday, the prices of coal and coke futures rose strongly, with multiple contracts hitting consecutive daily limits. The night - session near - month coking coal contract continued to hit the daily limit. The spot market was also strong, and the second round of coke price increases was being gradually implemented [2] Policy Factors - The market spread that the National Energy Administration recently issued a document on organizing and carrying out the verification of coal mine production. The verification covers production coal mines in 8 provinces (autonomous regions) including Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, etc. The most concerned content in the verification is whether the annual raw coal output in 2024 exceeded the announced production capacity and whether the monthly raw coal output from January to June 2025 exceeded 10% of the announced production capacity. This policy will standardize the production behavior of coal mining enterprises and further stimulate the rise of coal prices [2] Fundamental Factors - Last week, coal mines in the main production areas of Shanxi continued the resumption rhythm, but the overall resumption process was still slow. Downstream procurement enthusiasm was high, and the demand for replenishment and speculation was concentratedly released. The pressure of high supply and high inventory of coal mines was significantly reduced, and coal prices were prone to rise and difficult to fall in the short term. On the demand side, coking plants and steel mills have accelerated their raw material replenishment. The available days of coking coal inventory in the plants have rebounded from a low level, and the average daily hot metal output of steel mill blast furnaces has rebounded to 2.4244 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.0263 million tons [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Group 2: Core Views - The finished products are expected to move in a shock and consolidation manner [3] - Alumina spot prices are expected to gradually peak, and aluminum ingot prices are expected to be strong in the short - term range, focusing on the inventory - consumption trend [3][4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - Yungui region's short - process construction steel enterprises' Spring Festival shutdown time is mostly in mid - to late January, with a predicted impact on building steel production of 741,000 tons during the shutdown. In Anhui Province, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills started to shut down on January 5, and most of the rest will shut down around mid - January. The daily output affected during the shutdown is about 16,200 tons [3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] - The finished products continued to decline in shock yesterday, with prices hitting a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand and pessimistic market sentiment, the price center continued to move down, and this year's winter storage is sluggish, providing weak price support [3] Aluminum Ingot - Macroscopically, domestic "anti - involution" policies drove industrial metals up, and the long - term tone of "promoting consumption and stabilizing growth" remains unchanged, while overseas macro uncertainties still exist [2] - Some enterprises will start maintenance in late July, which may lead to a decline in the local alumina operating capacity. Some electrolytic aluminum capacity replacement projects in the southwest region are about to be put into production, driving up the demand for alumina in the region. However, from a national perspective, alumina supply is still relatively loose, and the weekly inventory of alumina in national electrolytic aluminum plants has increased by about 25,800 tons this week, which is expected to put pressure on the spot price [3] - On July 21, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 498,000 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons from last Thursday and a decrease of 3,000 tons from last Monday. The reduction of aluminum rods at the end of the month led to a decrease in the expected proportion of aluminum water in July, an increase in ingot casting volume, and a significant increase in the supply of aluminum ingots. The increase in arrivals became the core driver of inventory accumulation in the off - season, but the recent inventory performance has been fluctuating [3] - The off - season inventory fluctuates, and the pressure on the demand side in the off - season limits the upward space. With the increase in macro - risk pricing, attention should be paid to the promotion of domestic policies. Driven by short - term policies, metal prices have risen. Aluminum prices are expected to be strong in the short - term range, and follow - up attention should be paid to the inventory - consumption trend [4]

晨报 煤焦 煤焦：乐观情绪释放 盘面震荡偏强运行 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 重要声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开的资料，我公司对信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证，也不保证包含的信 息和建议不会发生变更，我们已力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中观点、结论和建议仅供参考，投资者据此 做出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关。 地址：北京市海淀区海淀大街 8 号 19 层 ☎ 400-700-6700 www.zgfcc.com 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 7 月 22 日 逻辑：昨日，煤焦期货价格强势上涨，焦煤多个合约涨停，夜盘延续 偏强走势。近日工信部表示，将实施新一轮钢铁等十大重点行业稳增长 ...