1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the text 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term iron ore supply - demand contradictions continue to accumulate, the support of restocking demand for prices weakens, supply is in the off - season but with high year - on - year growth, price height is restricted by industrial chain profits, the short - term price peak has appeared, and it is recommended to short on rebounds. [3] - The operation strategy is range trading and covered call options. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Logic - Recently, the off - season characteristics of the black series are obvious and the macro - expectations are weak. Iron ore is affected by the expected increase in supply and the decrease in demand due to sudden safety incidents. Coupled with the weakening of restocking demand, the price has fallen from a high level. [2] Supply - Current overseas ore shipments have entered the off - season. Weekly shipments have declined for three consecutive weeks, and before mid - February, they will continue to weaken month - on - month but be higher than the same period last year due to the low base last year. Domestic ore supply is also in the off - season. The supply side is in a seasonally contracting phase, but the supply support needs to decline more than expected to increase. As of January 19, the global iron ore shipment volume was 29.298 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.511 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 7 million tons. The shipment volume of 19 ports in Australia and Brazil was 21.64 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.692 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 4.28 million tons. [2] Demand - Domestic demand has declined slightly but is still at the highest level in the same period of the past five years. The profitability of steel mills has stabilized after the decline in carbon element prices, and steel inventories have not shown a more - than - seasonal accumulation. Overall, domestic steel mill demand is stable in the short term, and restocking demand is in the middle stage with a weakening marginal support. The Baotou Steel accident has a substantial impact on demand, and there is an expectation of further strengthening safety supervision. [2] Inventory - Steel mill - end imported ore inventory has risen for four consecutive weeks. The pre - Spring Festival seasonal restocking of steel mills is in the second half, and the restocking support is weakening. Port inventory is still accumulating due to the relatively high arrival volume. It is expected that with the decline in arrival volume and the increase in restocking demand, the pressure of port inventory accumulation will ease. [2]

以伊冲突 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 晨报 铝锭 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：宏观情绪缓和 铝价高位震荡 投资咨询业务资格： 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 右。2024 年 12 月 30 日-2025 年 1 月 5 日，10 个重点城市新建商品房成 交（签约）面积总计 223.4 万平方米，环比下降 40.3%，同比增长 43.2%。 成材昨日继续震荡下行，价格再创近期新低。在供需双弱的格局下， 市场情绪同样偏悲观，导致价格重心持续下移。无论从宏观上还是产业上， 市场近期均无太多亮点。且今年冬储偏低迷，对价格支撑不强。 观点：震荡整理运行。 后期关注/风险因素：宏观政策；下游需求情况。 成 材：武秋婷 原材料：程 鹏 原材料： 冯艳成 基本面来看,截至 1 月 21 日，SMM 进口铝土矿指数报 65.85 美元/吨， 较上一交易日下跌 0.01 美元/吨；SMM 几内亚 FOB ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoint of the Report The overall supply of coking coal and coke has increased recently, the restocking pace of downstream enterprises is average, the spot market for coking coal and coke lacks rebound momentum, and some coal varieties have seen price declines. The futures market lacks upward drivers, and cautious operation is recommended. [3] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Market Performance**: This week, ferrous metals generally declined, with coking coal and coke futures prices leading the decline, and the weak trend continued in the night session yesterday. The spot market has stabilized after the increase, and the price of Meng 5 raw coal has turned down this week, with a decline of over 50 yuan/ton. Many coking enterprises plan to raise coke prices, but the price increase is still in the negotiation process and has not been fully implemented. [2] - **Import Data**: According to customs data, in December 2025, the import of coking coal was 13.7698 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.31% and a year - on - year increase of 28.57%, setting a new monthly import record. The annual import volume was 118.6257 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.6269 million tons, a decline of 2.97%. [2] - **Fundamentals** - **Supply**: The overall coal supply is relatively strong. After the new year, coal mines have gradually resumed production. This week, the output of coking raw coal and clean coal increased to 1.994 million tons and 0.77 million tons respectively. The raw coal inventory at the mine end has increased, while the clean coal inventory has further decreased. The downstream coking and steel enterprises have also resumed production and maintained a certain procurement rhythm, but the overall rhythm is still slow. At the import end, the daily customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port last week was 195,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 31,200 tons and a year - on - year increase of 48,800 tons. The port inventory remains relatively high. [3] - **Demand**: The profitability rate of steel mills is acceptable, rising to about 40%. The blast furnace operating rate decreased slightly last week, mainly due to maintenance. The daily average pig iron output was 2.2801 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 14,900 tons and a year - on - year increase of 35,300 tons. [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint - Short - term iron ore supply - demand contradictions continue to accumulate, the support of restocking demand for prices weakens, supply is in the off - season but shows high year - on - year growth, price highs are restricted by industrial chain profits, and the restocking demand drive has entered the realization period. It is expected that the short - term price peak has appeared, and it is recommended to mainly short on rebounds [2]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Supply - Current overseas ore shipments are in the off - season, with weekly shipments declining for three consecutive weeks. Before mid - February, overseas ore shipments will continue to weaken month - on - month but be higher than the same period last year due to the low base caused by the hurricane in Australia last year. Domestic ore supply is also in the off - season. As of January 19, the total global iron ore shipments were 29.898 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.511 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 7.004 million tons. The total shipments of 19 ports in Australia and Brazil were 21.64 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.692 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 4.28 million tons [1]. Demand - Domestic demand has slightly declined but remains at the highest level in the same period of the past five years. The profitability of steel mills has stabilized after the decline in carbon element prices, and steel inventories have not shown super - seasonal accumulation. Overall, domestic steel mill demand is stable in the short term, restocking demand is in the middle stage, and its marginal support is weakening. The Baotou Steel accident has a substantial impact on demand, and there is an expectation of further upgrading of safety production supervision [1]. Inventory - Steel mill imports of iron ore inventory have increased for four consecutive weeks, and the pre - Spring Festival seasonal restocking of steel mills is in the second half, with the restocking support weakening. Port inventories continue to accumulate due to relatively high arrivals. It is expected that as arrivals decline and restocking demand increases, the pressure on port inventory accumulation will ease [1]. 4. Strategy - Interval operation and covered call options [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - Recently, the overall supply of coal and coke has increased month-on-month, the downstream replenishment rhythm is average, the spot market of coal and coke has a weak rebound, and individual coal types have turned down. The futures market lacks upward drivers, so it is necessary to operate cautiously [2] Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Performance - This week, ferrous metals generally declined, and the prices of coal and coke futures led the decline. The night session yesterday continued the weak trend; the spot market was stable after rising, and the price of Mongolian 5 raw coal turned down this week, with a decline of 45 yuan/ton [2] Production Data - In December 2025, the coke output was 42.74 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.04%; the annual cumulative output was 502.222 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.34%, and the output hit a new historical high [2] Supply Side - The overall supply of coal is relatively strong. After the new year, coal mines have gradually resumed production. Last week, the output of coking raw coal and clean coal increased to 1.978 million tons and 768,000 tons respectively (the statistical sample increased). The raw coal at the mine end continued to increase in inventory, and the clean coal inventory was further depleted. On the import side, the daily customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port last week was 1.958 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 312,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 488,000 tons, and the port inventory remained at a relatively high level [2] Demand Side - The profitability of steel mills is acceptable, rising to about 40%; the blast furnace operating rate decreased slightly last week, mainly due to maintenance. The daily average pig iron output was 2.2801 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 14,900 tons and a year-on-year increase of 35,300 tons [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - The price of lithium carbonate is expected to remain high, but short - term volatility risks should be watched out for, and attention should be focused on marginal changes in cost and supply - demand [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Performance - The main contract of lithium carbonate futures showed a volatile upward trend yesterday, with an intraday increase of nearly 9% and closing at the daily limit price of 160,500 yuan/ton. The net short position of the main force in the capital market continued, the long - short ratio decreased month - on - month, and the warehouse receipts decreased slightly by 17 tons to 27,671 tons. The average price of SMM electric carbon in the spot market was 152,500 yuan/ton. Upstream suppliers were less willing to sell scattered orders, and downstream material factories mostly maintained the rhythm of purchasing as needed and watched cautiously [1] Supply and Demand Fundamentals - **Supply**: Last week, the raw material price increased by more than 17% month - on - month, strengthening the cost support. The total weekly operating rate of SMM lithium carbonate was 52.7% (+0.98%), the operating rates of spodumene and salt lakes increased slightly month - on - month, while those of lithium mica and recycling decreased slightly. The total output of SMM was 22,605 tons (+70 tons), and the supply was stabilizing at a high level [2] - **Demand**: There was a significant structural differentiation in demand. Last week, the output of SMM lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials decreased slightly month - on - month, and the inventory was cleared. The output of SMM power cells decreased slightly. As of January 11, the penetration rate of new energy vehicle sales decreased month - on - month, and the production schedule of energy - storage cells increased slightly to support demand [2] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of SMM's four - location samples increased by 3.1% (+1,290 tons) month - on - month, the sample weekly inventory was cleared again, with a month - on - month decrease of - 0.24% (-263 tons). The total inventory days remained at 28 days, the upstream inventory days increased to 5 days, and the downstream inventory days decreased slightly to 13.8 days, showing a significant inventory structure differentiation [2] Macro - level Factors - **Demand - side**: Multiple incentives such as subsidies for car trade - ins and battery export tax rebates stimulated terminal consumption and improved macro - liquidity [3] - **Supply - side**: On January 15, the National Development and Reform Commission proposed to introduce management measures for the comprehensive utilization of new energy vehicle power batteries, which would improve the recycling threshold and eliminate backward production capacity, optimize the domestic supply structure in the long term, and raise the cost support center [3] - **Industrial Planning**: The industrial planning of Qinghai Salt Lake, the key points of the "15th Five - Year Plan" for energy storage, and a series of deployments of the Central Economic Work Conference formed synergistic benefits to support long - term supply - demand balance [3] - **Macro - environment**: The central bank's structural interest rate cut indirectly strengthened the long - term macro - positive atmosphere. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted the trading system again, which might restrain the price fluctuation range in the short term, but the potential impact on liquidity and volatility in extreme market conditions should be watched out for [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The price of finished products is expected to fluctuate and consolidate, and the price of aluminum is expected to have a short - term high - level consolidation [2][3][4] Summary by Related Content Finished Products - Yunnan - Guizhou short - process steel enterprises' Spring Festival shutdown is expected to affect 741,000 tons of building steel output, and Anhui short - process steel enterprises' shutdown will affect about 16,200 tons of daily output [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of new commercial housing in 10 key cities decreased by 40.3% month - on - month and increased by 43.2% year - on - year [3] - The price of finished products continued to decline, and the market sentiment was pessimistic. The winter storage was sluggish, providing weak support for prices. It will run in an oscillating and consolidating manner [2][3] Aluminum - Macro - level: The market is nervous about Trump's new tariff threat to Europe, which will negatively impact the aluminum demand expectation. China's policy supports the domestic market [2] - Fundamental: Snow in Henan affected transportation, weakening processing enterprise demand. New electrolytic aluminum projects in China and Indonesia are ramping up production. The supply of domestic bauxite is gradually improving, and its price may decline. The downstream processing enterprise start - up rate increased slightly but is expected to be weak in the short term. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots increased by 19,000 tons to 749,000 tons on January 19 [2][3] - The aluminum price is expected to have a short - term high - level consolidation, and attention should be paid to macro - events and downstream feedback [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - Short - term iron ore supply - demand contradictions still need to accumulate. The restocking demand supports the spot price, and supply enters the off - season. However, the price increase is limited by industrial chain profits, and the restocking demand drive has entered the realization period. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [1] - The recommended strategy is range operation and covered call options [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - Current overseas ore shipments have entered the off - season, with weekly shipments declining for three consecutive weeks. According to seasonal patterns, before mid - February, overseas ore shipments will continue to weaken month - on - month but be higher than last year due to the low base caused by the hurricane in Australia last year. Domestic ore supply is also in the off - season. Overall, the supply side is in a seasonally shrinking phase, but a more significant supply - side support requires an unexpected decline. As of January 19, Mysteel's global iron ore shipments totaled 29.298 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.511 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 7.004 million tons. The total iron ore shipments from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil were 21.64 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.692 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 4.28 million tons [1] Demand - Domestic demand has slightly declined but remains at the highest level in the same period of the past five years. The profitability of steel mills has stabilized after the decline in carbon element prices, and steel inventories have not shown an over - seasonal accumulation. Overall, domestic steel mill demand remains stable in the short term, the restocking demand is in the middle stage, and its marginal support is weakening [1] Inventory - Steel mill's imported ore inventory has increased for four consecutive weeks, and the pre - Spring Festival seasonal restocking by steel mills is in the second half, with the restocking support weakening. Port inventories continue to accumulate mainly due to the relatively high arrival volume. It is expected that as the arrival volume declines and restocking demand increases, the pressure on port inventory accumulation will ease [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The report predicts that the price of finished steel products will experience a period of low-level consolidation [4] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs Economic Data in 2025 - China's GDP increased by 5.0% year-on-year, reaching 140.19 trillion yuan; the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size grew by 5.9%, 0.1 percentage points faster than the previous year; the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7%, 0.2 percentage points faster than the previous year; fixed - asset investment decreased by 3.8%, with real estate development investment dropping by 17.2% [3] - At the end of 2025, China's population was 140,489,000. The number of births was 792,000, and the number of deaths was 1,131,000, resulting in a population decrease of 339,000 [3] Steel Production and Export Data in 2025 - China's crude steel production was 960.81 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.4%; pig iron production was 836.04 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.0%; steel production was 1,446.12 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.1% [3] - China's cumulative exports of steel bars were 19.15 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 42.4% [3] Market Situation of Finished Steel Products - Finished steel products fluctuated and declined yesterday. The supply - demand contradiction was not prominent, showing obvious off - season characteristics. With temperature drops in many parts of China this week, the terminal demand for building materials further weakened. The macro market was calm, having limited impact on prices [3] Later Concerns - Macro - policies and downstream demand conditions [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move in a range-bound manner, and the price of aluminum is expected to remain high in the short term [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Finished Products - Yungui region's short - process construction steel enterprises will have a total production reduction of 74.1 tons during the Spring Festival shutdown. Anhui's 6 short - process steel mills will have a daily production reduction of 1.62 tons during the shutdown [1] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities decreased by 40.3% week - on - week and increased by 43.2% year - on - year [1] - Finished products continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and winter storage is sluggish, with weak price support [1] Aluminum - Macro - level tariff threats from the US to Europe will negatively impact aluminum demand expectations, while China's GDP growth and industrial added - value growth provide long - term support for aluminum demand [1] - Newly - invested electrolytic aluminum projects in China and Indonesia are ramping up production, and the daily output is increasing. The supply of domestic bauxite is gradually improving, and the inventory of alumina plants has increased by 70.36 tons [1] - The price of alumina is falling, and the willingness of alumina plants to purchase bauxite at a premium is low, so the price of domestic bauxite may decline [1] - The operating rates of domestic aluminum downstream processing enterprises are differentiated, with a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points to 60.2%. High aluminum prices suppress downstream consumption and the expansion of inventory - building willingness [1] - On January 19, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in mainstream consumption areas increased by 1.9 tons compared to last Monday [1] - Due to macro uncertainties and weak fundamentals, but strong bullish sentiment from funds, aluminum prices are expected to remain high in the short term [2]