Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report Core Views - **成材**: Expected to be in a state of shock consolidation, with the price center moving down and showing weak operation [1][2] - **铝锭**: The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term, and it is necessary to pay attention to macro - sentiment and mine - end news [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **成材** - **Production Impact**: Yunnan - Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises are expected to affect 741,000 tons of construction steel production during the Spring Festival shutdown. In Anhui, 1 short - process steel mill has stopped production on January 5, and most others will stop around mid - January, with a daily production impact of about 16,200 tons [1][2] - **Real Estate Transaction**: From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2] - **Price Trend**: Yesterday, the price continued to decline in shock, hitting a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the winter storage is sluggish, with weak price support [2] **铝锭** - **Macro - environment**: In September, the US consumer price increase was lower than expected, and the Fed may cut interest rates again this week. Domestically, the macro - sentiment is positive [1] - **Raw Material Supply**: The supply of domestic bauxite remains tight, but due to the continuous decline of alumina prices and high absolute inventory, the increase in domestic ore prices is limited [2] - **Downstream Processing**: The overall start - up rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing enterprises shows the characteristics of "stable in the peak season and differentiated internally". The start - up rates of different products vary, with some rising slightly and some falling [2] - **Inventory Situation**: On October 23, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 618,000 tons, a decrease of 7,000 tons from Monday and 9,000 tons from last Thursday [2] - **Price Trend**: Affected by repeated overseas interference events, the short - term fundamentals are stable, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. Pay attention to the inventory - consumption trend [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint Short - term coal - coke supply - demand has marginal fluctuations and remains at a relatively high level overall, with temporary low inventory pressure. Attention should be paid to the impact of imported coal variables on the market, and prices should be treated with cautious optimism [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Information Market Performance - Last week, coal - coke futures prices fluctuated strongly with an upward trend and large volatility. The spot market was generally stable, and the scope of the second round of coking price increases expanded but had not been finalized [3]. Supply Side - Some coal mines in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia stopped production due to safety and governance issues last week, leading to a decline in coal production. The daily average clean coal output of 523 coking coal mines was 76.1 million tons, a decrease of 1.8 million tons from the previous week and 1.7 million tons year - on - year [3]. Demand Side - Steel mills' profits further shrank, with the profitability rate dropping to 47.6%. The daily average hot metal output slightly decreased to 239.9 million tons. As demand nears the end of the year, the pressure on finished products increases, and hot metal output tends to decline [3]. Import Data - China's coking coal imports have been increasing monthly. In September, imports were 10.9237 million tons, a 7.49% month - on - month increase and a 5.41% year - on - year increase. From January to September, cumulative imports were 83.5312 million tons, a 6.45% year - on - year decrease with a narrowing decline. In September, Mongolian coal imports were 6.0005 million tons, a 0.24% month - on - month decrease but a 45.48% year - on - year increase. From January to September, imports were 41.747 million tons, a 3.8% year - on - year decrease with a significantly narrowing decline [4].

Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View - Recent macro - drivers are positive, leading to an overall increase in black - series prices. Although the supply - demand contradiction of iron ore itself is weak, the pressure of profit contraction in the industrial chain and the structural contradiction of finished product inventory limit the upward price movement. However, due to strong domestic demand resilience, a strengthening basis of iron ore, and improved market sentiment, the price is expected to continue to rebound [2][3]. - The price of iron ore will fluctuate within a range. The main contract of Dalian iron ore will be in the range of 760 - 800 yuan/ton, corresponding to an outer - market price of about 103 - 107 US dollars/ton [3]. 3) Summary by Related Contents Logic - The equity and commodity markets have warmed up. Sino - US trade relations are expected to ease as trade consultations will be held from October 24th to 27th in Malaysia and a new round of trade negotiations on issues like rare earths, fentanyl, and soybeans may take place around the APEC meeting. Domestically, the 15th Five - Year Plan focuses on technological self - reliance, new - quality productivity, consumption boosting, and high - quality real estate development, which boosts market sentiment [3]. Supply - Outer - mine shipments have increased slightly month - on - month. Shipments from Rio Tinto and FMG in Australia have increased significantly, while those from Brazil are relatively stable. After reaching a new high this year, the arrival volume has returned to the median level. Overall, the support from the supply side continues to weaken [3]. Demand - Domestic demand has declined month - on - month, mainly due to environmental protection measures in Hebei causing some steel mills to shut down or reduce loads. Although the blast furnace operating rate has increased this week, iron - water production has decreased. With the continuous decline of finished product prices, the loss range of steel mills has expanded, and the profitability rate has dropped to the lowest level this year. The blast furnace operating rate and profitability rate are falling due to environmental protection and weak terminal demand, but the decline slope is not steep. Considering the seasonal replenishment cycle of steel mills, domestic iron ore demand still shows resilience [3]. Inventory - The inventory level at steel mills has increased slightly month - on - month as they enter the seasonal replenishment cycle. With the arrival volume at a high level in the same period and the decline of port clearance volume due to weather, port inventory has continued to accumulate [3]. Strategy - Adopt interval operation and use covered call options [4].

Group 1: Overall Report Information - The report is dated October 24, 2025 [2] Group 2: Steel Products (Chengcai) - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: Steel products are expected to oscillate and consolidate, with prices moving downward and the center of gravity shifting lower due to a weak supply - demand situation and pessimistic market sentiment, and a lackluster winter storage season [1][3] - **Summary**: - Yunnan - Guizhou short - process construction steel producers will shut down for maintenance from mid - January, resuming around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting 741,000 tons of production [2] - In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped on January 5, most will stop in mid - January, and some after January 20, with a daily production impact of about 16,200 tons [3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of new commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% week - on - week decrease and a 43.2% year - on - year increase [3] - Later concerns include macro policies and downstream demand [3] Group 3: Aluminum Products - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: Aluminum prices are expected to be strong in the short term, with high - level fluctuations. The short - term fundamentals are stable, but macro overseas events affect market sentiment [1][4] - **Summary**: - On October 23, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic main consumption areas was 618,000 tons, down 7,000 tons from Monday and 9,000 tons from last Thursday [3] - The overall开工 rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing enterprises was 62.4%, with some sectors showing different trends [3] - The market is waiting for the US September CPI data, with an expected 0.4% month - on - month increase in overall CPI and a 0.3% increase in core CPI [2] - Later concerns include macro expectations, geopolitical crises, mine resumption, and consumption release [4]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View Short - term coal - coke supply - demand has marginal fluctuations and remains at a relatively high level. Attention should be paid to the impact of imported coal variables on the market. Market sentiment is easily disturbed by macro - factor changes, and prices should be treated with cautious optimism [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content Supply - side - Yesterday, coal - coke futures prices continued the rebound trend with intense fluctuations. The spot market was generally stable, and the second round of coking price increase was still in the negotiation process. Supply - side news pushed up coal prices [3]. - Due to the political turmoil in Mongolia, the customs clearance at the Ganqimaodu Port was affected, and the recent clearance volume decreased, supporting the coal price [3]. - In the domestic market, some coal mines in Shanxi's Lvliang and Linfen stopped production due to safety reasons this week, and open - pit coal mines in Inner Mongolia's Wuhai stopped production for goaf treatment. The coal output declined. The daily average coking coal output of 523 coking coal mines this week was 76.1 million tons, a decrease of 1.8 million tons from the previous week and 1.7 million tons year - on - year [3]. Demand - side - The profit of steel mills further shrank, with the profitability rate dropping to 47.6%. The daily average hot metal output slightly decreased to 2.399 billion tons. As the demand nears the end of the year, the pressure on finished products increases, and the hot metal output tends to decline. Attention should be paid to the transmission of pressure to the raw material end [3]. Import Data - China's coking coal imports have been increasing month - by - month. In September, the import volume was 10.9237 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.49% and a year - on - year increase of 5.41%. From January to September, the cumulative import volume was 83.5312 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.45% with the decline rate continuously narrowing [3]. - In September, the import of Mongolian coal was 6.0005 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.24% and a year - on - year increase of 45.48%. From January to September, the import of Mongolian coal was 41.747 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8% with the decline rate significantly narrowing [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry is rated as having a short - term rebound potential while operating at a low level [3] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The industry is operating at a low level with a short - term rebound potential. Later, attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Market Background - According to an agreement between China and the US, a Chinese delegation will hold economic and trade consultations with the US in Malaysia from October 24th to 27th [2] Production Data - Steel Union's weekly data shows that rebar production increased by 5.91 million tons to 207.07 million tons, hot - rolled coil production increased by 0.62 million tons to 322.46 million tons, and the total production of five major steel products increased by 8.37 million tons to 865.32 million tons [2] - National Bureau of Statistics data shows that China's rebar production in September was 14.75 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.9%; the cumulative production from January to September was 143.387 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1% [2] Inventory Data - Rebar total inventory decreased by 18.94 million tons to 622.11 million tons, hot - rolled coil total inventory decreased by 4.27 million tons to 414.92 million tons, and the total inventory of five major steel products decreased by 27.41 million tons to 1554.85 million tons [2] Apparent Demand Data - Rebar apparent demand increased by 6.26 million tons to 226.01 million tons, hot - rolled coil apparent demand increased by 11.18 million tons to 326.73 million tons, and the total apparent demand of five major steel products increased by 17.32 million tons to 892.73 million tons [2] Market Performance and Influencing Factors - Rebar and hot - rolled coil had a small rebound yesterday. The weekly fundamentals were relatively stable, with both supply and demand increasing and inventory decreasing, which had a limited impact on prices [2] - The recent increase in coking coal and coke at the raw material end drove steel prices from the cost side, and the China - US economic and trade consultations were also beneficial to the commodity market at the macro level [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - side support for iron ore continues to weaken, while domestic demand remains at a high level and supports the price. Although the overall supply - demand contradiction of iron ore is weak, the pressure of profit contraction in the industrial chain and the structural contradiction of finished product inventory limit the upward price. With high domestic hot - metal production, the price has support. Based on the current port clearance and arrival levels, the pressure of port inventory accumulation in October is not large, and there is a possibility of price rebound if market sentiment improves. The price of iron ore will oscillate within a certain range [3][4][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Environment - The iron ore price continued its narrow - range oscillation yesterday, and short - term attention should be paid to macro - incremental drivers. The market expects the US federal government to end the shutdown this week, and with the approaching APEC meeting at the end of the month, Sino - US trade relations are expected to ease. The 14th Five - Year Plan will be announced today, and the market has positive expectations for domestic macro - policy directions. The sentiment of the black series is still weak, and the inventory pressure of finished products and the low level of steel mill profits suppress the sector's valuation [3] Supply - The shipment of foreign mines increased slightly on a month - on - month basis, with the shipment increases of Rio Tinto and FMG in Australia being relatively significant, while the shipment from Brazil was relatively stable. After reaching a new high this year, the arrival volume returned to the median level, and overall, the supply - side support continued to weaken [3] Demand - Domestic demand continued to decline on a month - on - month basis but remained at a high level, still supporting the iron ore price. Blast furnace overhauls mainly occurred in Hebei, Shanxi, Jiangsu, and Shandong. In Hebei, it was mainly due to insufficient sinter supply, while in other regions, it was due to poor finished product sales and weakening profits. The daily average hot - metal output in this period was 240.95 tons (month - on - month - 0.59), basically the same as the average level in August (240.5). Overall, the blast furnace operating rate and profitability remained relatively high, and high demand still supported the iron ore price [4] Inventory - The inventory level at steel mills decreased slightly on a month - on - month basis, and the daily consumption of imported ore by steel mills declined due to production cuts. Steel mills are about to enter the seasonal inventory accumulation stage. Due to the arrival volume being at a high level in the same period, port inventory continued to accumulate on a month - on - month basis [4] Price - The price will oscillate within a range. The main contract of Dalian iron ore will be in the range of 760 - 800 yuan/ton, corresponding to an overseas price of about 103 - 107 US dollars/ton [5] Strategy - Conduct range operations and use covered call options [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - In the short term, the supply and demand of coking coal and coke have marginal fluctuations and are generally at a relatively high level. Attention should be paid to the impact of the increase in imported coal on the market. Market sentiment is easily disturbed by changes in macro - factors, and prices should be treated with cautious optimism. [2][3] Summary by Relevant Content Market Conditions - Yesterday, the futures prices of coking coal and coke rebounded with fluctuations, basically recovering the decline of the previous day, and the overall fluctuation was relatively intense. The spot market was generally stable, and the second round of coke price increase had not been implemented and was still in the game process. [2] Production Situation - This week, some coal mines in Lvliang and Linfen, Shanxi stopped production due to safety reasons, and some open - pit coal mines in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia stopped production due to goaf treatment problems, resulting in a decline in coal production. The average daily output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines this week was 761,000 tons, a decrease of 18,000 tons from the previous week and 17,000 tons from the same period last year. [2] Import Situation - According to customs data, China's coking coal imports have been increasing month by month. In September, the import volume was 1.09237 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.49% and a year - on - year increase of 5.41%. From January to September, the cumulative import volume was 8.35312 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.45% with the decline continuing to narrow. Among them, the import of Mongolian coal in September was 600,050 tons, a slight month - on - month decrease of 0.24% and a year - on - year increase of 45.48%. From January to September, the import of Mongolian coal was 4.1747 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8% with the decline significantly narrowing. After the National Day, the average daily customs clearance volume of coal at Ganqimaodu was 151,200 tons, a decrease of 16,800 tons compared with September. The continuous increase in coking coal imports will put some pressure on coal prices. [3] Future Focus - Pay attention to the changes in the macro - expectations' impact on market sentiment during the Fourth Plenary Session this week, the changes in the blast furnace operation rate of steel mills, and the resumption of coal mines. [2][3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the given content. 2) Core View of the Report - The steel price is operating at a low level and faces short - term downward pressure. Later, attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [4]. 3) Summary by Related Contents - **Production Situation**: In October, some steel mills in Northeast China resumed production, but their winter production enthusiasm was low. In Liaoning, 2 steel mills have resumed production, 1 will resume at the end of the month, 1 will resume in early November, and 2 are undetermined; 1 in Jilin has resumed production, and 2 in Heilongjiang have both resumed production. Additionally, 3 Liaoning steel mills will conduct another overhaul. Currently, the daily average output in Northeast China has decreased by 44,000 tons, and there are 19 overhauled production lines [3]. - **Cost and Profit**: This week, the average tax - free hot metal cost of mainstream sample steel mills in Tangshan was 2,245 yuan/ton, and the average tax - included billet cost was 3,003 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 3 yuan/ton. Compared with the factory price of common billets of 2,940 yuan/ton on October 22, steel mills had an average loss of 63 yuan/ton [3]. - **Funds in Construction Projects**: As of October 21, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites was 59.62%, a week - on - week increase of 0.18 percentage points. Among them, the capital availability rate of non - housing construction projects was 61.06%, a week - on - week increase of 0.06 percentage points; the capital availability rate of housing construction projects was 52.76%, a week - on - week increase of 0.77 percentage points [3]. - **Market Performance**: The finished steel rebounded slightly yesterday, with the price still at the current level and little fluctuation. The industry's fundamentals are relatively calm, and demand restricts price increases. If there are no incremental policies in relevant meetings, steel prices will still face pressure [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The report believes that the steel products market is operating at a low level and faces short - term downward pressure. It also suggests paying attention to macro - policies and downstream demand in the later stage [4] Group 3: Summary According to the Content Steel Production Data - In September, key steel enterprises produced 62.86 million tons of crude steel, a year - on - year decrease of 1.0%, with a daily output of 2.0953 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.1%. They produced 58.43 million tons of pig iron, a year - on - year decrease of 0.9%, with a daily output of 1.9476 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.7% [3] Overseas Trade Frictions - The European Commission issued an anti - dumping affirmative final ruling on steel crawler tracks originating from China, with an anti - dumping duty of 62.5%. Thailand's anti - dumping and counter - subsidy sub - committee issued an anti - circumvention affirmative final ruling on special iron pipes and steel pipes originating from China [3] Real Estate Transaction Data - From October 13th to 19th, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 1.6386 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 63.7%. The total transaction (signing) area of second - hand housing was 2.1837 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 70.5% [3] Market Performance - Steel products fluctuated and consolidated yesterday. During the day session, they rose first and then fell, and both varieties closed with a doji star, with little fluctuation. The macro data showed limited improvement in the real estate market, still putting pressure on building materials. Overseas trade frictions also put pressure on the export of steel plates. Attention should be paid to China - US economic and trade consultations and domestic important meetings [3]