晨报 成材 成材：原料反弹 钢价跟涨 观点：短线观望，中线偏空。 后期关注/风险因素：宏观政策；下游需求情况。 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 原材料：程 鹏 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 4 月 2 日 逻辑：据 Mysteel 调研，截至今日（4 月 1 日）唐山地区全流程螺纹 钢厂 10 条轧线，仅有 1 条轧线在产，开工率下跌到 10%，日产 2000 吨左 右，为今年最低水平。4 月 1 日，76 家独立电弧炉建筑钢材钢厂平均成本 为 3400 元/吨。平均利润为-108 元/吨，谷电利润 ...

成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：宏观博弈 关注旺季验证 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 晨报 铝锭 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:昨日铝价偏弱整理。美国制造业在连续两个月扩张后，3 月出现 萎缩，而工厂投入物价指数达到近三年来的最高水平。与此同时，人们越 来越担心关税将导致消费者和生产者物价出现多大幅度的上涨，关注本周 非农数据指引。 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 右。2024 年 12 月 30 日-2025 年 1 月 5 日，10 个重点城市新建商品房成 交（签约）面积总计 223.4 万平方米，环比下降 40.3%，同比增长 43.2%。 成材昨日继续震荡下行， ...

负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 原材料：程 鹏 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 晨报 成材 成材：需求偏低迷 钢价震荡下行 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 成材昨日震荡下行，回吐上周涨幅，整体运行在偏空氛围中。上周钢 厂开工率和日均铁水产量延续升势，铁水已恢复到近 8 个月高位。与之对 应的下游需求表现平平，螺纹钢虽然仍在去库，但去库斜率放缓，低库存 优势正在减弱。目前仍处于需求验证阶段，但以当前下游情况后推，市场 呈偏悲观情绪。 观点：短线观望，中线偏空。 后期关注/风险因素：宏观政策；下游需求情况。 重要声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开的资料，我公司对信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证，也不保证包含的信 息和建议不会发生变更，我们已力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中 ...

1. Investment Rating for the Industry - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate sharply in the short - term due to high uncertainty of reciprocal tariffs. Although the risk of a sharp decline in iron ore prices is small, the supply - demand situation in April is expected to be more balanced with a relatively low inventory accumulation slope, and the price will be more affected by the price of finished steel products. It is recommended to short at high prices or sell call options. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - The current mainstream shipments are in the end - of - quarter rush period, with the shipment volume increasing month - on - month. In April, the overall supply is expected to increase month - on - month. Mainstream mines may have a seasonal decline after the end - of - quarter rush, usually with about one - week's month - on - month decrease in shipments. Non - mainstream mines remain relatively weak, and domestic mines are in a slow recovery stage. The supply in April is expected to be in an upward cycle, with significant increases both year - on - year and month - on - month, and the support from the supply side will further weaken. [2] Demand - The overall demand is in a recovery stage. In April, domestic iron ore demand still has some room for growth. The expected maximum daily pig iron output may reach 240,000 tons (Steel Union's data), a rise of about 1% from the current 237,000 tons per day, and the monthly average pig iron output may reach 239,000 tons per day, a 2.5% increase compared to March. A phased demand peak is expected to appear at the end of April or early May. [2] Inventory - Both the absolute and relative levels of factory inventory are lower than last year and show a downward trend. Port inventory has increased for two consecutive weeks. In April, with both supply and demand being strong, inventory is expected to rise, but the inventory accumulation slope is not high. However, the absolute inventory level is still relatively high, putting pressure on prices. [2] Finished Steel - The current domestic terminal demand remains resilient. The steel market contradictions are not prominent, and steel is expected to continue to see a slight reduction in inventory in April. Attention should be paid to the marginal decline rate of export growth, changes in finished steel prices, and steel mill profits. [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoint of the Report - The supply and demand of coking coal have both increased, and there is a phased trend of inventory increase. The futures market is dragged down by delivery games, and the overall coking coal and coke market will maintain a weak operation in the short term [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Market Performance**: Yesterday, the coking coal near - month 2504 contract closed at the daily limit down, and continued to decline sharply at night, dragging down the main contract to a new low in nearly eight years [2]. - **Market Policy**: The Dalian Commodity Exchange has added China Aluminum International Trade Group Co., Ltd. and Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co., Ltd. as group delivery warehouses for coking coal, and set up sub - warehouses in corresponding regions, which puts pressure on the coking coal delivery price. The exchange has also added a "equilibrium moisture" indicator to the coke futures delivery quality standard, increasing the wet - quenched coke delivery cost by 110 yuan/ton, enriching the deliverable resources and weakening the short - term rebound sentiment [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Five major steel products have entered the inventory destocking cycle. The profitability of steel mills is acceptable. Last week, the blast furnace operating rate continued to rise but at a slower pace than the previous week. The daily average pig iron output increased to 2.3728 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,200 tons and a year - on - year increase of 159,700 tons, driving the rigid demand for coke to improve. For coking coal, the coal mine operating rate increased last week, with the daily average output of coking coal reaching 759,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 22,000 tons. In terms of imports, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal rebounded in mid - March compared with early March, and the inventory in the port supervision area remained at a high level. The cumulative import volume of Mongolian coal in the first two months was 6.4426 million tons, with a significant year - on - year decrease of 17.03% [2].

从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：外围宏观不确定性大 铝价偏弱调整 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 晨报 铝锭 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 4 月 1 日 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:昨日铝价偏弱运行。在关税搅得全球经济不得安宁之际，高盛将 美国经济衰退的概率 ...

从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 晨报 工业硅 工业硅：库存高位供给过剩，硅价继续弱势震荡 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 本报告中的信息均来源于公开的资料，我公司对信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证，也不保证包含的信 息和建议不会发生变更，我们已力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中观点、结论和建议仅供参考，投资者据此 做出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关。 地址：北京市海淀区海淀大街 8 号 19 层 ☎ 400-700-6700 www.zgfcc.com 逻辑：本周工业硅现货市场价格弱势运行行情持续低迷，部分厂家暂不报 价。目前华东通 553#硅 10200-10400 元/吨，华东 421 硅 ...

晨报 铝锭 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：价格区间调整 关注高价位下游反馈 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 地址：北京市海淀区海淀大街 8 号 19 层 ☎ 400-700-6700 www.zgfcc.com 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 3 月 31 日 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:上周铝价区间调整。数据显示，美国 2 月份核心通胀 ...

晨报 煤焦 煤焦：情绪受挫 价格反弹乏力 观点：供需两端均处于回升态势，库存有阶段性转增趋势，关注铁水 产量回升能否持续，短期煤焦整体维持低位震荡。 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 后期关注/风险因素：关注钢厂高炉开工变化、进口煤通关情况。 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 3 月 31 日 逻辑：上周，焦炭期价跟随钢矿小幅反弹，周五再度回落；焦煤整体 表现仍弱。上周，大商所调整焦炭期货交割质量标准，增设"平衡水分" 指标，新交割规则下，焦炭交割仍采用干基计价，对于全水分是扣重指标， 同时对平衡水分＞1%的设置贴水 110 元/吨，湿熄焦和干熄焦依然都可以 作为交割品，但湿熄焦的交割成本将在原基础上增加 110 元/吨，相当于 增加了干熄焦的交割经济 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The current oversupply situation in the industrial silicon market has not been reversed, the futures contract valuation is low, the production cut rumors have not been fully implemented, the inventory remains at a high level, and the silicon price will continue to fluctuate weakly [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Price - The spot market price of industrial silicon has been weak this week, with the price of East China Tong 553 silicon at 10,200 - 10,400 yuan/ton and East China 421 silicon at 10,000 - 11,200 yuan/ton. The closing price of the main industrial silicon futures contract si2505 is 9,855, up 0.36%, with the main contract reducing positions by 8,102 lots, a position of 229,300 lots, and a trading volume of 7.991 billion yuan [1] Supply Side - The capacity recovery in the southwest region is slow, with some silicon plants delaying their resumption plans and even reducing operating capacity. In the northwest region, there is a differentiated situation, with leading enterprises announcing production cut plans, and the shutdown scope of small and medium - sized silicon enterprises is expanding due to cost pressure [1] Demand Side - The price of polysilicon is stable this week, with silicon material enterprises showing a strong willingness to hold prices. The current prices of different types of polysilicon are: re - feeding material at 37 - 39 yuan/kg, dense material at 35 - 38 yuan/kg, cauliflower material at 32 - 34 yuan/kg, and N - type material at 41 - 43 yuan/kg. The earthquake in Myanmar affected the production of some polysilicon enterprises. The organic silicon market has a strong price - holding sentiment, with the mainstream transaction price at 14,000 - 14,500 yuan/ton. The price of aluminum alloy ingots is stable, and the demand in the alloy ingot market remains weak [1] Inventory - On March 28, the industrial silicon warehouse receipt inventory was 69,791 lots, an increase of 469 lots in a single week, and the warehouse receipt inventory remains at a high level [1]