晨报 铝锭 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：铝水比例提高 关注旺季库消 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 本报告中的信息均来源于公开的资料，我公司对信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证，也不保证包含的信 息和建议不会发生变更，我们已力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中观点、结论和建议仅供参考，投资者据此 做出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关。 地址：北京市海淀区海淀大街 8 号 19 层 ☎ 400-700-6700 www.zgfcc.com 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 9 月 9 日 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大 ...

从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 晨报 铝锭 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：非农不及预期 海外降息情绪升温 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 2025 年 9 月 8 日 观点：预计价格短期高位震荡，关注宏观情绪和矿端消息。 后期关注/风险因素：关注宏观预期变动、地缘政治危机发展、矿端复 产情况、消费释放情况。 重要声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开的资料，我公司对信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证，也不保证包含的信 息和建议不会发生变更，我们已力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中观点、结论和建议仅供参考，投资者据此 做出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关。 地址：北京市海淀区海淀大街 8 号 19 层 ☎ 400-700-6700 www.zgfcc.com 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127 ...

晨报 成材 成材：供应增长 钢价底部运行 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 9 月 8 日 逻辑：上周，14 个省份的钢厂涉及产线检修、复产，其中检修产线 17 条，环比增 15 条，复产产线 2 条，按照轧机日均产量测算，产线检修影 响产量 32.68 万吨。预计本周产线检修影响产量 27.04 万吨。上周，247 家钢厂高炉开工率 80.4%，环比减少 2.80 个百分点；高炉炼铁产能利用 率 85.79%，环比减少 4.23 个百分点；日均铁水产量 228.84 万 ...

晨报 煤焦 煤焦：需求存压 价格震荡运行 投资咨询业务资格： 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 9 月 8 日 逻辑：上周，煤焦期货价格整体先跌后涨。09 合约进入交割月，在 买交割意愿不强的影响下，期货价格由升水向平水甚至贴水回归，带动其 他合约价格走弱。现货端，部分煤矿点高价资源成交乏力，价格稳中有降； 河北地区钢厂开始对焦炭进行提降，湿熄焦炭下调 50 元/吨、干熄焦炭下 调 55 元/吨，计划 2025 年 9 月 8 日零点执行。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 煤矿端，上周受阅兵影响山西多地煤矿集中停产检修，煤产量下降明 显，523 家煤矿日均精煤产量 69.3 万吨，环比下降 6.0 万吨，同比下降 9.7 万吨。不过煤矿检修时间多在 2-3 天左右，预计本周主产地炼焦煤产 量将会快速回升。由于减产影响，矿端库存下降。 原材料：程 鹏 需求方面，上周钢厂减产预期落地，247 家钢厂高炉日均铁水产量 228.84 万吨，环比下降 11.29 万吨，同比增加 6.23 万吨，整体铁水减产 力度以 ...

Group 1 - Report industry investment rating: Not provided Group 2 - The core view of the report: The production cut expectations at both the supply and demand ends of coking coal and coke have been realized, and production will gradually resume in the short term, but the resumption process remains to be observed; the market sentiment is generally cooling down, and prices are under pressure [3] Group 3 Market condition summary - Yesterday, the overall prices of coking coal and coke futures first declined and then rose, with a slight increase during the night session. As the 09 contract entered the delivery month, the futures prices moved from premium to flat or even discount due to weak willingness to buy for delivery, dragging down the prices of other contracts. On the spot side, the high - priced resources of some coal mines had weak trading, with prices stable or slightly lower. Hebei steel mills started to lower coke prices, with wet - quenched coke down 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke down 55 yuan/ton, to be implemented at 0:00 on September 8, 2025 [2] Supply situation - Since this week, affected by the military parade, many coal mines in Shanxi have carried out centralized maintenance, mostly for 2 - 3 days. The regional and large - scale shutdown of coal mines, combined with the cancellation of night shifts in some areas, led to a significant decline in production. However, as most coal mines had short shutdown times and many resumed production on September 4, the coking coal production in the main producing areas is expected to recover rapidly next week [2] Demand situation - This week, the steel mill production cut expectations were realized. The average daily hot metal output of 247 steel mill blast furnaces was 228.84 tons, a decrease of 11.29 tons compared to the previous week and an increase of 6.23 tons year - on - year. The production cut was more obvious in the Tangshan market. Most steel mills resumed production on September 4, with a few delaying the resumption. In the short term, hot metal production tends to recover, but according to past experience, it is usually difficult for production to return to pre - cut levels after a decline in the second half of the year, especially in the fourth quarter, and raw material demand will face challenges later [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The price of finished steel products is expected to move in a sideways consolidation pattern, with its price center of gravity shifting downwards and showing a weak trend. Attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [1][2]. - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term. The "Golden September" effect is gradually emerging, and attention should be paid to macro - expectations, geopolitical crises, mine resumption, and consumption release [1][2][3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Steel Products - In the Yunnan - Guizhou region, short - process construction steel producers will stop production for maintenance from mid - January, and the resumption time is expected to be between the 11th and 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5, and most of the rest will stop around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [1][2]. - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2]. - The price of finished steel products continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand, market sentiment is pessimistic, and winter storage is sluggish, providing little support for prices [2]. Aluminum Ingots - Macroscopically, the market is volatile, and investors are focusing on the key employment report on Friday. Previous data shows a softening labor market, strengthening the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut this month. The increase in initial jobless claims last week exceeded expectations, indicating a cooling labor market [1]. - On the supply side, the replacement capacity continues to be released, and the weekly output increased slightly to 847,300 tons. On the cost side, the full cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is 16,618 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 36 yuan/ton, and the average industry profit narrowed to around 3,991 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 84 yuan/ton [2]. - On the demand side, the overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 1 percentage point to 61.7%. The "Golden September" effect is emerging, and each sector is recovering well. The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy increased slightly by 0.2% to 56.6%, the operating rate of aluminum plate and strip leading enterprises increased by 1.2 percentage points to 68.6%, and the operating rate of the aluminum cable industry increased by 1 percentage point to 64.8% [2]. - As of September 4, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 626,000 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons from Monday and 6,000 tons from last Thursday [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is that the steel industry is expected to operate in a volatile and weak manner [3] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The steel price rebounded slightly due to the raw material drive, with both supply and demand decreasing and inventory rising this week. The supply decline was mainly affected by the parade, and with recent resumptions of production in many places, the supply is expected to increase. However, the demand has changed little and is difficult to reverse in the short - term, leading to the price continuing to run weakly [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Contents - **Production Data**: According to the weekly data from Steel Union, the production of rebar decreased by 18,800 tons to 2.1868 million tons, the production of hot - rolled coils decreased by 105,000 tons to 3.1424 million tons, and the total production of the five major steel products decreased by 239,600 tons to 8.6065 million tons [2] - **Inventory Data**: The total inventory of rebar increased by 166,100 tons to 6.4 million tons, the total inventory of hot - rolled coils increased by 88,800 tons to 3.7434 million tons, and the total inventory of the five major steel products increased by 328,200 tons to 15.007 million tons [2] - **Apparent Demand Data**: The apparent demand for rebar decreased by 21,400 tons to 2.0207 million tons, the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils decreased by 153,600 tons to 3.0536 million tons, and the apparent demand for the five major steel products decreased by 299,400 tons to 8.2783 million tons [2] - **Production Resumption in Tangshan**: Starting from September 4th, independent section steel mills in Tangshan gradually resumed normal production. As of the morning of September 4th, the survey showed that the operating rate of 29 section steel production enterprises in Tangshan was 49%, an increase of 14% compared to before the resumption [2] - **Later Concerns**: Macro policies; supply - side production reduction situation; downstream demand situation [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The external macro - narrative is more positive, and there are still incremental expectations for domestic monetary and fiscal policies in the medium - term, which support the valuation of the black series. In the short - term, terminal demand is weakening, iron ore supply is steadily rising, demand is falling from a high level, and the overall supply - demand relationship is shifting from tight to balanced. Short - term iron ore lacks upward drivers and is expected to follow the sector. The price will fluctuate within a range [2][3]. Group 3: Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Supply - Outer - mine shipments maintain a high growth rate. Australian and Brazilian shipments have been higher than the historical average for three consecutive weeks, Vale's shipments reached a five - year high, and non - mainstream shipments have been higher than last year's level for four consecutive weeks. The arrival volume is slightly lower than last year, and supply pressure is expected to gradually increase [2]. Demand - China's daily average pig iron output has slightly declined to 240.13 (a week - on - week decrease of 0.62). The steel mill profitability rate is continuously falling, and blast furnace profits are approaching the break - even point. With the parade - related production restrictions in North China, although the full - scale loss of short - process steelmaking protects iron ore demand to some extent, the support from domestic demand for prices is weakening [2]. Inventory - The daily consumption of imported ore at steel mills has declined but remains high. The steel mill inventory has decreased due to more maintenance in North China. The port inventory has slightly decreased, and with high daily consumption and high pig iron output, the inventory is expected to remain stable in the short - term, with no significant pressure to accumulate [2]. Price - The price will fluctuate within a range. The main contract of Dalian iron ore (2601 contract) will be in the range of 760 - 790 yuan/ton, corresponding to an external market FE10 price of about 101 - 104 [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Coal production has decreased temporarily, but the reduction is not sustainable and is expected to resume production soon; the overall market sentiment is cooling, and prices are under pressure [4] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Market Performance - Yesterday, coal and coke futures prices were generally weak and volatile, and the weakness continued at night. The 09 contract entered the delivery month. With weak buying and delivery intentions, the futures price changed from premium to flat or even discount, dragging down the prices of other contracts. On the spot side, the high - priced resources at some coal mines had weak transactions, and prices were stable with a downward trend. Last week, coke enterprises in Hebei started the 8th round of price increase, but mainstream steel mills had no response, while some regional steel mills planned price cuts, and the market entered a game period [3] Supply Side - This week, affected by the military parade, many coal mines in Shanxi concentrated on shutdown and maintenance, mostly for 2 - 3 days. The regional and large - scale shutdown of coal mines and the cancellation of night shifts in some areas led to a significant decline in production. However, since most coal mines had a short shutdown time, many coal mines resumed production on September 4, and it is expected that the coking coal production in the main producing areas will recover rapidly next week [3] Demand Side - The profitability rate of steel mills has remained above 60%, and the willingness for self - reduction is low. During the military parade, there was an expectation of production reduction for blast furnaces of steel mills around Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei. From the survey, the production - limiting period was mainly from August 31 to September 3, with a production - limiting range of about 40%, significantly lower than the previous similar major events. The production - limited steel mills are expected to resume production one after another after the 4th [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry is rated as having an oscillatory and weakly downward trend [3] Report's Core View - The steel price of finished products is expected to run in an oscillatory and weakly downward manner, with supply pressure increasing after enterprises resume production post - parade, while downstream demand remains weak [1][2][3] Summary by Related Content Construction Funds and Steel Mill Costs - As of September 2, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites was 59.4%, a week - on - week increase of 0.18 percentage points, and that of housing construction projects was 51.39%, a week - on - week increase of 0.44 percentage points. The average含税 cost of steel billets of mainstream sample steel mills in Tangshan this week was 2,971 yuan/ton, an increase of 8 yuan/ton week - on - week, resulting in an average loss of 21 yuan/ton compared with the ex - factory price of 2,950 yuan/ton on September 3 [2] Steel Mill Orders - As of August 31, the steel billet hand - held order volume of sample steel mills was 1.267 million tons, a 27% increase (270,000 tons) from the previous survey. In terms of order receipt, domestic trade orders were 668,000 tons, an increase of 128,000 tons, and direct export orders were 599,000 tons, an increase of 142,000 tons [2] Construction Site Construction Dynamics - A total of 66 traders, sub - terminals, and downstream enterprises in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region stopped work from late August to September 4, and are expected to resume work on the afternoon of September 3 and September 4 [2] Market Performance of Finished Products - Finished products continued to be weak yesterday. Both rebar and hot - rolled coils closed with small negative lines, with the overall center of gravity shifting downward [2]