晨报 煤焦 煤焦：盘面震荡偏强 关注限产政策落地 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 8 月 13 日 逻辑：昨日，焦煤期货价格延续震荡上行走势，价格突破前高。现货 端，部分矿点高价资源成交乏力，价格出现回调；焦炭第 6 轮提涨遇阻， 在环保限产的消息影响下，出现提降预期。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 近日，关于 9.3 阅兵环保限产的消息不断，唐山限产通知:为保障阅 兵，独立轧钢企业自 8 月 16 日至 25 日根据气象条件研判随时进行停产， 各企业做好停产准备。25 ...

负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 8 月 13 日 晨报 铝锭 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：矿端消息提振价格 海外降息预期升温 投资咨询业务资格： 宏观降息预期支撑价格，关注国内政策推进，基本面矿端消息提振短 期铝价格，预计近期高位偏强为主，后续关注库消走势，淡季及实际影响 预计仍给到上方压力。 观点：预计价格短期偏强震荡，关注宏观情绪和矿端消息。 后期关注/风险因素：关注宏观预期变动、地缘政治危机发展、矿端复 产情况、消费释放情况。 重要声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开的资料，我公司对信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证，也不 ...

晨报 成材 成材：原料上涨 钢价跟涨 逻辑：8 月 12 日，中美双方发布《中美斯德哥尔摩经贸会谈联合声明》。 美方承诺继续调整对中国商品（包括香港特别行政区和澳门特别行政区商 品）加征关税的措施，自 8 月 12 日起继续暂停实施 24%的对等关税 90 天。 中方自 8 月 12 日起继续暂停实施 24%对美加征关税以及有关非关税反制 措施 90 天。8 月 12 日，76 家独立电弧炉建筑钢材钢厂平均成本为 3353 元/吨，日环比增加 9 元/吨，平均利润亏损 39 元/吨，谷电利润为 62 元/ 吨。8 月 4 日-8 月 10 日，10 个重点城市新建商品房成交（签约）面积总 计 130.8 万平方米，环比下降 10.8%，同比下降 4.5%，降幅收窄。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 成 材：武秋婷 周末唐山限产消息，叠加原料焦煤继续上涨，钢价延续震荡上行。目 前行业基本面一般，主要是下游需求偏弱，且目前正值雨季，下游短时间 内难有起色。市场情绪在经过上一轮上涨后有降温，但随着阅兵临近，宏 观层面和京津冀限产预期下，钢价仍有反弹势能。 原材料：程 鹏 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号： ...

从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 晨报 铁矿石 铁矿石：中美关税政策落地 短期矿价区间运行 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 供应方面：外矿发运将逐步进入季节性回升周期但整体环比增速偏低，其中澳洲 BHP、FMG 矿山检修期结束后发运并未快速回升，本期巴西发运整体维持中位偏高水平；由于 7 月份发运 环比回落，预计 8 月份短期到港量整体依旧偏低，实际供给端压力并不突出。 成 材：武秋婷 需求方面：国内日均铁水量连续三周回落且降幅扩大，本期日均铁水产量 240.32（环比 -0.39），当前钢厂盈利率水平持续上升且高炉利润水平相对可观，短流程再度陷入全面亏损， 短期铁矿石需求仍保持韧性，国内高需求对价格形成较强支撑，后期需关注铁水能否维持高位。 原材料：程 鹏 库存方面：钢 ...

投资咨询业务资格： 晨报 铝锭 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：淡季开工承压 价格区间运行 成文时间： 2025 年 8 月 12 日 当前淡季库存累库，需求端淡季压力限制上行空间。降息预期短期支 撑价格，关注国内政策推进，短期铝价预计高位运行为主，后续关注库消 走势。 观点：预计价格短期震荡运行，关注宏观情绪和下游开工。 后期关注/风险因素：关注宏观预期变动、地缘政治危机发展、矿端复 产情况、消费释放情况。 以伊冲突 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停 ...

【华宝期货】有色金属周报 华宝期货 2025.8.11 目录 01 有色周度行情回顾 02 本周有色行情预判 03 品种数据（铝、锌、锡） 周度行情回顾 | 品种 | | | 期货主力合约收盘价格 | | | 现货价格 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2025. 8. 8 | 2025. 8. 1 | 周变动 | 周涨跌幅 | | | 2025.8.8 2025.8.1 | 周变动 | 周涨跌幅 | | 铜 | CU2509 | 78490 | 78400 | 90 | 0. 11% | 中国:平均价:铜:上海物贸 | 78505 | 78325 | 180 | 0. 23% | | 品 | AL2509 | 20685 | 20510 | 175 | 0. 85% | 中国:平均价:铝(A00):有色市场 | 20630 | 20490 | 140 | 0. 68% | | 锌 | ZN2509 | 22515 | 22320 | 195 | 0. 87% | 中国:价格: ...

【华宝期货】黑色产业链周报 华宝期货 2025.8.11 目录 01 周度行情回顾 02 本周黑色行情预判 03 品种数据（成材、煤焦、铁合金） 01 周度行情回顾 | 品种 | | | 期货主力合约收盘价格 | | | 现货价格 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2025.8.8 | | 2025.8.1 | | 2025.8.8 | 2025.8.1 | 价格变动 | | | 螺纹钢 | RB2510 | 3213 | 3203 | 0.31% 10 | HRB400E: Φ20:汇总价格:上海 | 3340 | 3360 | -20 | -0.60% | | 热轧卷板 | HC2510 | 3428 | 3401 | 27 0.79% | Q235B:5.75*1500*C:市场价:上海 | 3450 | 3410 | 40 | 1.17% | | 铁矿石 | 12509 | 790 | 783 | 7 0.89% | 日照港PB粉 | 770 | 768 | 2 | 0.26% | | ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core Views - The finished products are expected to move in a range-bound manner, with the price center shifting downward and showing a weak trend. Attention should be paid to macro policies and downstream demand [1][3]. - The aluminum ingot price is expected to fluctuate in the short term. It is currently in the off - season with inventory accumulation, and the upward space is limited by the off - season demand pressure. Short - term support comes from the interest rate cut expectation. Focus on macro sentiment, downstream start - up, and the trend of inventory - consumption ratio [3][4]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - In the Yunnan - Guizhou region, short - process construction steel production enterprises' shutdown and maintenance time during the Spring Festival is mostly in mid - to late January, and the resumption time is expected to be between the 11th and 16th day of the first lunar month, with an expected impact on the total construction steel output of 741,000 tons during the shutdown period. In Anhui Province, among 6 short - process steel mills, 1 has stopped production since January 5, and most of the others will stop production around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 1620 tons during the shutdown [2][3]. - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3]. - The finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, reaching a new low recently. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, market sentiment is pessimistic, and the price center continues to shift downward. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing weak price support [3]. Aluminum Ingots - Last week, the aluminum price was at a high level. The rising expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut on the macro - level boosted the basic metals, while the US imposing tariffs on India and the India - Russia aluminum cooperation agreement increased the funds' risk - aversion sentiment [2]. - In terms of supply, the operating output of electrolytic aluminum increased slightly and steadily. The total weekly cost of the electrolytic aluminum industry was 16,738 yuan/ton, and the industry still had high profits. In August, the operating capacity of alumina is expected to increase month - on - month. The bauxite shipment volume from Guinea decreased from late June to July, and the total imported bauxite from Guinea is expected to decline starting from August, while the increase in domestic bauxite supply is limited [3]. - Last week, the operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 58.7%. Different aluminum product sectors have different operating rate trends. For example, the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy continued to rise, the aluminum cable operating rate remained stable, the aluminum profile and aluminum foil operating rates decreased slightly, and the operating rate of recycled aluminum leading enterprises remained stable [3]. - On August 11, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 587,000 tons, an increase of 23,000 tons compared with last Thursday and last Monday. Due to uneven arrivals, there were phased fluctuations in inventory data. In the off - season, high aluminum prices may further damage consumption, and the inventory will continue to accumulate in the short term [3].

晨报 煤焦 煤焦：盘面震荡运行 关注限产政策 投资咨询业务资格： 山西核查煤矿超产持续深入推进中。上周山西除吕梁外其他区域陆续 收到文件并开始执行核查产量，目前已有多座煤矿自发减产压产，叠加临 近 9 月阅兵，安监形势严峻，预计短期煤矿增量有限。焦煤结构性库存压 力得到明显缓解。目前 523 家煤矿原煤库存 476.5 万吨，较 6 月高点下降 224.5 万吨；精煤库存 245.7 万吨，较 6 月高点下降 254.3 万吨。需求端， 本周焦化厂、钢厂对于原料补库动作有所放缓，厂内焦煤库存可用天数低 位回升后趋稳，上周钢厂日均铁水产量 240.32 万吨，环比上周减少 0.39 万吨，同比去年增加 8.62 万吨。 原材料：程 鹏 观点：短期基本面改善支撑煤价偏强运行，价格波动仍剧烈，建议谨 慎参与。 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the reports. Group 2: Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move in a weak and downward trend, with a focus on macro - policies and downstream demand, and is likely to have an oscillatory consolidation operation [1][3] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to be high in the short - term, with an oscillatory trend. Attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and downstream start - up, as well as macro - expectation changes, geopolitical crisis development, mine - end resumption, and consumption release [1][4] Group 3: Summary by Industry Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises will have a shutdown and maintenance period from mid - January, with a production resumption around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total of 741,000 tons of construction steel production during the shutdown [3] - Six short - process steel mills in Anhui Province: one started to shut down on January 5, most will shut down around mid - January, and a few will shut down after January 20, affecting a daily output of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% month - on - month decrease and a 43.2% year - on - year increase [3] - The price of finished products continued to decline oscillatively, reaching a new low recently. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, market sentiment is pessimistic, and winter storage is sluggish, providing weak price support [3] Aluminum - In August, the operating capacity of alumina is expected to increase month - on - month, and the demand for bauxite will grow. Xinjiang Zhonghe's 2.4 million - ton alumina project is expected to be completed and put into production in the first half of 2026 [3] - From late June to July, the bauxite shipments from Guinea decreased due to the rainy season. The total bauxite imports from Guinea to China are expected to decline starting in August, and the increase in domestic bauxite supply is limited [3] - The weekly starting rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 58.7%. Different sub - industries have different trends: primary aluminum alloy continues to recover but with cautious production scheduling; aluminum cable starting rate remains stable at 61.8% and is expected to rise slightly in mid - August; aluminum profile starting rate decreased slightly to 49.5%; aluminum foil starting rate decreased slightly to 68.4% and is expected to continue to shrink; the starting rate of recycled aluminum leading enterprises remains stable at 53.1% but faces downward pressure [3] - As of August 7, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 564,000 tons, unchanged from Monday and an increase of 20,000 tons from last Thursday. Current off - season inventory accumulation and demand pressure limit the upward space [3][4]