成材：弱驱动下 钢价窄幅整理 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 原材料：程 鹏 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 晨报 成材 逻辑：本周，唐山主流样本钢厂平均钢坯含税成本 3083 元/吨，与 11 月 12 日普方坯出厂价格 2930 元/吨相比，钢厂平均亏损 153 元/吨，周环 比增加 2 元/吨。据百年建筑调研，截至 11 月 11 日，样本建筑工地资金 到位率为 59.76%，周环比下降 0.06 个百分点。其中，非房建项目资金到 位率为 61.06%，周环比下降 0.16 个百分点。河北邯郸市 2025 年 11 月 12 日 18 时启动重污染天气Ⅱ级应急响应，预计 11 月 16 日左右解除。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 成材近期低位整理，近几个交易日在窄区间内盘整，波动不大。在宏 观趋于平静后，市场缺乏新的驱动。前钢材下游需 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The finished products are expected to run in a volatile and consolidating manner, with the price center moving downward and showing a weak trend [1][2] - The aluminum price is expected to run strongly in the short - term, with the macro support being strong and the pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic continuing, but the downstream is weakening and the pressure of inventory accumulation is increasing in the short - term [1][3] Summary by Relevant Content Finished Products - The short - process construction steel enterprises in the Yunnan - Guizhou region will stop production and conduct maintenance from mid - to late January during the Spring Festival, and are expected to resume production between the 11th and 16th day of the first lunar month, with an estimated impact on the total construction steel output of 741,000 tons during the shutdown period [1] - In Anhui Province, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5, and most of the remaining steel mills will stop production and have holidays around mid - January, with an estimated daily impact on output of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown period [2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a month - on - month decrease of 40.3% and a year - on - year increase of 43.2% [2] - The finished products continued to fluctuate downward yesterday, reaching a new low in the recent period. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is also pessimistic, resulting in a continuous downward shift of the price center. The winter storage this year is sluggish, providing little support for prices [2] - The later focus includes macro - policies and downstream demand [2] Aluminum - Domestically, the output of bauxite has decreased. Although the mine enterprises in Shanxi and Henan that were shut down due to environmental protection policies and the rainy season previously are now eligible for resumption, they still need government approval. Some compliant mines are expected to resume production on a small scale before the end of the year. With sufficient imported supplies, some mining enterprises have increased the proportion of imported high - temperature ore to maintain output, and the price of domestic bauxite is expected to remain stable in the short term [2] - Last week, the operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises was 61.6%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous week. The operating rate of aluminum cables decreased by 2 percentage points, and the operating rate of the aluminum profile industry dropped to 52.6%. The operating rates of aluminum strip and aluminum foil leading enterprises also decreased slightly. The overall operating rate is expected to continue to shrink [2] - On November 13, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 621,000 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons from Monday and 1,000 tons from last Thursday [2] - Overseas, affected by high import tariffs and global supply shortages, the premium of the US spot market aluminum price has reached a record high [2] - The aluminum price is expected to run strongly in the short term, with strong macro - support and a pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic continuing. However, with the arrival of the off - season, the downstream is weakening and the pressure of inventory accumulation is increasing. Later, attention should be paid to the inventory - consumption trend and the high - level pressure [3] - The later focus includes changes in macro - expectations, the development of geopolitical crises, mine resumption, and consumption release [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The finished products are expected to run in a volatile and consolidating manner, with the price center of gravity moving downward and showing a weak operation [1][2]. - The aluminum ingot market is expected to maintain a pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic, with prices remaining at a high level. In the short - term, it is expected to be in a high - level shock, and prices are expected to be strong in the short - term [1][2][3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 成材 (Finished Products) - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel producers will have a shutdown and maintenance period from mid - January, with a resumption around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, one of the 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5, and most others will stop around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [1][2]. - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% week - on - week decrease and a 43.2% year - on - year increase [2]. - The finished products continued to decline yesterday, hitting a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand and pessimistic market sentiment, the price center of gravity continued to move down, and this year's winter storage is sluggish, providing weak price support [2]. 铝锭 (Aluminum Ingot) - Macroscopically, since mid - September, the US dollar has continued to rebound, with traders more optimistic about the US economic growth prospects, and many Fed officials are cautious about further interest rate cuts due to inflation concerns [1]. - Domestically, the output of bauxite has decreased. Although mines in Shanxi and Henan affected by environmental policies and the rainy season can resume production with government approval, some compliant mines may resume production on a small scale by the end of the year. With sufficient imported sources, some miners increase the proportion of imported high - temperature ore to maintain output, and domestic bauxite prices are expected to remain stable [2]. - Last week, the operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises was 61.6%, a 0.6 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week. The operating rate of aluminum cables decreased by 2 percentage points, and the aluminum profile operating rate dropped to 52.6%. The operating rates of aluminum strip and foil leading enterprises also decreased slightly. The overall operating rate is expected to continue to shrink [2]. - On November 10, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 627,000 tons, up 5,000 tons from last Thursday and flat from last Monday. In November, the pressure of weak inventory accumulation increases, which is expected to have a negative impact on aluminum prices [2]. - Overseas, due to high import tariffs and tight global supply, the premium of the US spot aluminum market has reached a record high [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term domestic coal mine production has not recovered, while the Mongolian coal customs clearance volume has significantly increased; demand is in a slow decline trend, and attention should be paid to the transmission of pressure to the raw material end. Coking coal prices are still operating within the range of 1100 - 1300 yuan/ton [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Situation - Yesterday, the coking coal and coke futures prices oscillated and declined, and the downward trend continued at night. The National Development and Reform Commission organized a video conference on energy supply guarantee for the 2025 - 2026 heating season, emphasizing strengthening coal production organization and transportation guarantee. The spot market is generally stable with a slight upward trend, domestic coal prices have risen again, and the fourth round of coke price increase is still in the negotiation process [3] Fundamental Analysis - **Supply Side**: Last week, coal mines in Shanxi further reduced production, with the most obvious reduction in the Lvliang area. State - owned large mines in the Liulin area began to control production independently, and the output decreased significantly. The daily average output of clean coal dropped to 73.8 tons, a decrease of 2 tons from the previous week and 4.6 tons year - on - year. On the import side, from November 3rd to 8th, the daily average customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port increased to 19.52 tons, an increase of 3.09 tons compared with the previous week, and the inventory in the port supervision area showed an increasing trend [3] - **Demand Side**: Steel mills' profits continued to shrink, and the profitability rate dropped below 40%. The daily average hot metal output decreased to 234.22 tons, a decrease of 2.14 tons from the previous week. The recent decline in hot metal is related to the significant narrowing of profits and the environmental protection restrictions in Tangshan. Currently, the profitability level will not lead to large - scale production cuts by steel mills, and the phased restrictions in Tangshan have been lifted. Later, attention should be paid to the changes in steel mills' profitability and production rhythm [3] Group 4: Later Concerns - Pay attention to the changes in steel mills' blast furnace start - up and the resumption of coal mine production [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic and international macro environments are in a vacuum. The core focus of the fundamentals is on the domestic demand side. The supply side generally shows a steady increase. In the short - term, it is a seasonal production cut, and overall, the demand is in a marginal decline. However, the inventory level at the steel mill end is low, and the basis rate and internal - external price difference are large. The current price is expected to be at a relatively low level. In the short - term, there is no need to be overly pessimistic. Overall, the price center is expected to move down but maintain a range - bound oscillation [3] - The price will operate within a range. The main contract of iron ore futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange will be in the range of 750 - 785 yuan/ton, corresponding to the foreign market price of about 100.5 - 104.5 US dollars/ton. The strategy is range operation and selling put options [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macroeconomic and Policy - Both domestic and international macro environments are in a vacuum. The pricing of industrial products has returned to their own fundamentals. Under the weak reality environment, the black series is generally under pressure, and the pattern of strong external and weak internal is expected to continue. The next policy game window is the Central Economic Work Conference in December. The 14th Five - Year Plan focuses on new - quality productivity, and the old kinetic energy is mainly for support, so domestic - demand commodities lack policy drive [2] Supply - The overseas iron ore shipment has decreased month - on - month but remains at a high level year - on - year. The support from the supply side remains weak. As of the week ending November 10, the global iron ore shipment was 30.69 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.448 million tons. The total shipment from Australia and Brazil was 25.486 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.106 million tons. The 5 - week average shipment of global iron ore was 32.423 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.16 million tons. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 27.976 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.953 million tons [2] Demand - The loss range of domestic blast furnace steel mills continues to expand. The environmental protection restrictions in Handan have been tightened, and the number of blast furnace overhauls has increased. In many regions such as Shanxi, Shaanxi, Jiangsu, and the Northeast, due to the decline in demand and losses, although the number of blast furnace restarts in North China has increased, the blast furnace operating rate has increased under the sintering restriction policy in North China, but the molten iron output has decreased. Overall, the domestic iron ore demand has shown a trend decline due to environmental protection factors and the contraction of production profits, which is in line with the seasonal production cut rule. Later, there is still an expectation of seasonal production cuts in steel mills in regions such as Xinjiang, and the molten iron output is likely to maintain a slow decline [2] Inventory - Under the pattern of strong supply and weak demand, the domestic port inventory continues to accumulate. In the short - term, the pressure on the supply side remains, and the decline rate of the demand side may slow down but is generally in a downward cycle. As of November 7, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports in the country was 148.9883 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.5635 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 3.7023 million tons [2]

Report Title - Coal and Coke: Increase in Mongolian Coal Clearance, Prices Fluctuate [1][2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - In the short term, the domestic coal mine output has not recovered, which supports the market's confidence in price support; the demand is in a slow decline trend, and attention should be paid to the transmission of pressure to the raw material end. The coking coal price should focus on the previous high pressure [3] Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Performance - Yesterday, the futures prices of coal and coke fluctuated, and weakened at night. The spot market was generally stable with a slight upward trend. Domestic coal prices rose again, the third round of coke price increases was gradually implemented, and some coke enterprises in certain regions started the fourth round of price increases [3] Fundamental Analysis - **Supply Side**: Last week, coal mines in Shanxi further reduced production, with the most obvious reduction in the Lvliang area. State - owned large mines in the Liulin area began to control production independently, and the output declined significantly. The daily average output of clean coal dropped to 73.8 thousand tons, a decrease of 2 thousand tons compared with the previous week and 4.6 thousand tons compared with the same period last year [3] - **Import**: From November 3rd to 8th, the daily average clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port increased to 195.2 thousand tons, an increase of 30.9 thousand tons compared with the previous week, and the inventory in the port supervision area showed an increasing trend [3] - **Demand Side**: The profit of steel mills continued to shrink, and the profitability rate dropped below 40%. The daily average pig iron output dropped to 234.22 thousand tons, a decrease of 2.14 thousand tons compared with the previous week. The recent decrease in pig iron output was affected by the significant narrowing of profits and the environmental protection production - restriction policy in the Tangshan area [3] Later Concerns - Pay attention to the changes in the blast furnace start - up of steel mills and the resumption of production of coal mines [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Aluminum: Macro sentiment provides strong support, with a persistent pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic markets and high prices. However, downstream demand weakens during the off - season, increasing the pressure of inventory accumulation. Later, attention should be paid to the development of geopolitical crises, the implementation of macro policies, supply expansion, and consumption release [14]. - Zinc: In the short term, prices follow the overall non - ferrous metals trend and remain at a high level. But in the long - term, supply expansion exerts upward pressure. Attention should be paid to the transmission from the mining end to the smelting end, and be vigilant about macro - risk events and LME inventory trends [16]. - Tin: Supply is tight, and tin prices are consolidating strongly. Later, attention should be paid to the resumption of production in Myanmar and the trade policies of various countries [17]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 01. Color Weekly Market Review - Copper: The closing price of the futures main contract on November 7, 2025, was 85,940 yuan, down 1070 yuan (- 1.23%) from October 31. The spot price was 85,995 yuan, down 1570 yuan (- 1.79%) [9]. - Aluminum: The closing price of the futures main contract on November 7, 2025, was 21,625 yuan, up 325 yuan (1.53%) from October 31. The spot price was 21,580 yuan, up 280 yuan (1.31%) [9]. - Zinc: The closing price of the futures main contract on November 7, 2025, was 22,720 yuan, up 365 yuan (1.63%) from October 31. The spot price was 22,768 yuan, up 248 yuan (1.10%) [9]. - Tin: The closing price of the futures main contract on November 7, 2025, was 283,510 yuan, down 400 yuan (- 0.14%) from October 31. The spot price was 283,750 yuan, down 500 yuan (- 0.18%) [9]. - Nickel: The closing price of the futures main contract on November 7, 2025, was 119,440 yuan, down 1150 yuan (- 0.95%) from October 31. The spot price was 121,290 yuan, down 980 yuan (- 0.80%) [9]. 02. This Week's Non - Ferrous Market Forecast Aluminum - Logic: Last week, aluminum prices fluctuated strongly. Macroeconomically, the US Treasury bond yield declined slightly with the government shutdown, and the non - farm payroll report was not released. Fundamentally, in October, China's bauxite production decreased by 2.25% month - on - month and 6.96% year - on - year. Although some mines can resume production, they need government approval. Some mines increase the proportion of imported high - temperature ore. The domestic downstream processing enterprise's starting rate decreased, and the inventory increased slightly [13]. Zinc - Logic: Last week, zinc prices remained at a high level. The average weekly TC of domestic SMM Zn50 decreased by 200 yuan/metal ton, and the SMM imported zinc concentrate index decreased by 4.17 dollars/dry ton. The galvanizing starting rate decreased by 2.4 percentage points. Downstream enterprises were cautious in purchasing due to high prices, and the inventory increased slightly [16]. Tin - Logic: In October, domestic tin ingot production increased to 16,090 tons. In September, domestic tin ore imports decreased by 15.13% month - on - month. Myanmar's resumption of production was slow, and Indonesia's export speed slowed down. Domestic production and starting rates increased, but processing fees remained low. Semiconductor consumption was good, while traditional sectors cooled down [17]. 03. Variety Data Aluminum - Bauxite: - Price: The price of domestic high - grade bauxite in Henan remained unchanged at 660 yuan/ton week - on - week; the price of domestic low - grade bauxite in Henan remained unchanged at 590 yuan/ton week - on - week; the average price index of imported bauxite was 72.8 dollars/ton, down 0.35 dollars week - on - week [22]. - Arrival and departure volume: The arrival volume at ports was 3.1232 million tons, down 649,600 tons week - on - week; the departure volume was 3.991 million tons, down 742,400 tons week - on - week [23]. - Alumina: The domestic price in Henan remained unchanged at 2865 yuan/ton week - on - week; the full cost was 2905 yuan/ton, down 15.4 yuan week - on - week; the profit in Shanxi was - 94.41 yuan/ton, up 25.73 yuan week - on - week [28]. - Electrolytic aluminum: - Total cost: 16,113.5 yuan/ton, up 70.44 yuan week - on - week [33]. - Regional spread: The spread between Foshan and SMM A00 aluminum was - 120 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan week - on - week [33]. - Downstream processing: The starting rates of aluminum cables, foils, strips, profiles, primary aluminum alloys, and recycled aluminum alloys showed different degrees of change, with some decreasing and some increasing or remaining unchanged [36][37]. - Inventory: The bonded - area inventory in Shanghai was 46,500 tons, down 2800 tons week - on - week; the total bonded - area inventory was 65,500 tons, down 2800 tons week - on - week; the social inventory was 627,000 tons, unchanged week - on - week; the weekly outbound volume of aluminum ingots in major consumption areas was 112,300 tons, down 18,400 tons week - on - week; the SHFE inventory was 113,335 tons, down 239 tons week - on - week; the LME inventory was 549,225 tons, down 8825 tons week - on - week [42][43]. - Spot: The basis of SMM A00 aluminum for the current month was - 10 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan week - on - week; for the main contract, it was - 85 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan week - on - week; for the third - consecutive contract, it was - 90 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan week - on - week [48]. - Inter - monthly spread of Shanghai Aluminum: The spread between the current month and the main contract was - 75 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan week - on - week; between the current month and the third - consecutive contract, it was - 80 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan week - on - week [49]. Zinc - Zinc concentrate: - Price and processing fee: The price of domestic zinc concentrate was 18,206 yuan/metal ton, up 688 yuan week - on - week; the domestic processing fee was 2850 yuan/metal ton, down 400 yuan week - on - week; the imported processing fee was 98.37 dollars/dry ton, down 4.17 dollars week - on - week [58]. - Production profit, import profit and loss, and inventory: The enterprise production profit was 5206 yuan/metal ton, up 688 yuan week - on - week; the import profit and loss was - 2305.84 yuan/ton, down 47.67 yuan week - on - week; the inventory of imported zinc concentrate in Lianyungang was 160,000 physical tons, up 30,000 tons week - on - week [61]. - Refined zinc inventory: The SMM seven - region social inventory of zinc ingots was 159,600 tons, down 2100 tons week - on - week; the bonded - area inventory was 3800 tons, down 400 tons week - on - week; the SHFE refined zinc inventory was 100,208 tons, down 3208 tons week - on - week; the LME zinc inventory was 34,900 tons, down 400 tons week - on - week [64]. - Galvanizing: The production was 318,270 tons, down 24,350 tons week - on - week; the starting rate was 55.13%, down 2.41 percentage points week - on - week; the raw material inventory was 13,080 tons, up 420 tons week - on - week; the finished - product inventory was 359,000 tons, down 8000 tons week - on - week [68]. - Zinc basis: The basis of SMM 0 zinc ingot for the current month was - 20 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan week - on - week; for the main contract, it was - 80 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan week - on - week; for the third - consecutive contract, it was - 120 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan week - on - week [72]. - Inter - monthly spread of Shanghai Zinc: The spread between the current month and the main contract was - 60 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan week - on - week; between the current month and the third - consecutive contract, it was - 110 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan week - on - week [73]. Tin - Refined tin: - Production and starting rate: The combined production of Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces was 3350 tons, up 20 tons week - on - week; the combined starting rate was 69.13%, up 0.41 percentage points week - on - week [83]. - Tin ingot inventory: The total SHFE tin ingot inventory was 5992 tons, up 73 tons week - on - week; the social inventory in Chinese regions was 7033 tons, up 349 tons week - on - week [86]. - Tin concentrate processing fee: The processing fees in Yunnan (40%), Guangxi (60%), Hunan (60%), and Jiangxi (60%) remained unchanged week - on - week [89]. - Tin ore import profit and loss: The import profit and loss level was 11,635.53 yuan/ton, down 2907.46 yuan week - on - week [90]. - Spot average price: The average prices of 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan and 60% tin concentrate in Guangxi, Hunan, and Jiangxi decreased by 700 yuan/ton week - on - week [96].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Overall Viewpoint**: The black industry is facing a complex situation with different trends in various sub - sectors.成材 is expected to run at a low level, coal - coke prices need to pay attention to the previous high pressure, and ferroalloys are predicted to have a narrow - range shock and consolidation trend [12][13][14][15]. - **Specific Sub - sector Views** - **成材**：回归基本面逻辑，低位运行，后期需关注宏观政策和下游需求情况 [12][13]. - **Coal - Coke**：Short - term domestic coal mine production has not recovered, supporting the market's confidence in maintaining prices, but demand is in a downward trend. Pay attention to the steel - mill profit situation and production reduction actions [14]. - **Ferroalloys**：Recently, the macro - driving force has weakened. The market trading logic is dominated by the weak reality. The supply - demand contradiction in the alloy market is accumulating, and prices are under pressure but supported by costs, with a narrow - range shock expected [15]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 01 周度行情回顾 - **Futures and Spot Prices** - **螺纹钢**：The futures price of RB2601 dropped from 3106 to 3034, a decrease of 2.32%, and the spot price of HRB400E: Φ20 in Shanghai decreased from 3230 to 3190, a decrease of 1.24% [8]. - **热轧卷板**：The futures price of HC2601 dropped from 3308 to 3245, a decrease of 1.90%, and the spot price of Q235B:5.75*1500*C in Shanghai decreased from 3330 to 3260, a decrease of 2.10% [8]. - **铁矿石**：The futures price of 12601 dropped from 800 to 760.5, a decrease of 4.94%, and the spot price of Rizhao Port PB powder decreased from 803 to 773, a decrease of 3.74% [8]. - **焦炭**：The futures price of J2601 dropped from 1777 to 1756.5, a decrease of 1.15%, and the spot price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade coke ex - warehouse price increased from 1560 to 1570, an increase of 0.64% [8]. - **焦煤**：The futures price of JM2601 dropped from 1286 to 1270, a decrease of 1.24%, and the spot price of Jiexiu medium - sulfur main coking coal ex - factory price increased from 1350 to 1420, an increase of 5.19% [8]. - **锰硅**：The futures price of SM2601 dropped from 5772 to 5760, a decrease of 0.21%, and the spot price of FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia decreased from 5660 to 5620, a decrease of 0.71% [8]. - **硅铁**：The futures price of SF2601 increased from 5500 to 5526, an increase of 0.47%, and the spot price of 72%FeSi in Inner Mongolia decreased from 5250 to 5220, a decrease of 0.57% [8]. - **废钢**：The Mysteel scrap steel price index decreased from 2442.24 to 2438.17, a decrease of 0.17% [8]. 3.2 02 本周黑色行情预判 - **成材** - **Logic**：Last week, the profitability rate of 247 steel mills decreased by 5.19% to 39.83%, the blast furnace operating rate increased by 1.38% to 83.13%, the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.8% to 87.81%, and the daily average pig iron output decreased by 2.14 tons to 234.22 tons. The impact of steel - mill maintenance on construction steel production increased. After the macro - level positive factors faded, steel prices returned to the fundamental logic, with weak downstream demand and high inventory pressuring prices [13]. - **Viewpoint**：Run at a low level [13]. - **Later Concerns**：Macro - policies and downstream demand [13]. - **Coal - Coke** - **Logic**：Last week, the coal - coke futures prices fluctuated with a slightly lower center of gravity. The spot market was generally stable with a slight upward trend, and the third round of coke price increases was implemented, with some areas starting the fourth round. Shanxi coal mines further reduced production, and the demand was also declining as steel - mill profits continued to shrink [14]. - **Viewpoint**：Pay attention to the previous high pressure of coal - coke prices [14]. - **Later Concerns**：The resumption process of coal - coke - steel production and changes in imported coal clearance [14]. - **Ferroalloys** - **Logic**：The macro - situation has an impact, with the US government shutdown and China's policy window period. The demand in the off - season is weakening. On the supply side, the production and operating rates of silicon - manganese and silicon - iron enterprises have different trends; on the demand side, the demand from steel mills is decreasing; on the inventory side, the inventory of both is increasing; on the cost side, there is some support [15]. - **Viewpoint**：Prices are expected to have a narrow - range shock and consolidation trend [15]. - **Later Concerns**：Domestic macro - policies, terminal demand, steel - mill profits and production, and domestic production - restriction situations [15]. 3.3 03 品种数据 3.3.1 成材 - **螺纹钢** - **Production and Apparent Demand**：Last week, the production was 208.54 tons, a decrease of 4.05 tons compared to the previous week; the apparent demand was 218.52 tons, a decrease of 13.67 tons compared to the previous week [18]. - **Long - and Short - Process Production**：The long - process production was 179.29 tons, a decrease of 3.79 tons compared to the previous week; the short - process production was 29.25 tons, a decrease of 0.26 tons compared to the previous week [24]. - **Inventory**：The social inventory was 425.70 tons, a decrease of 5.11 tons compared to the previous week; the steel - mill inventory was 166.84 tons, a decrease of 4.87 tons compared to the previous week; the total inventory was 592.54 tons, a decrease of 9.98 tons compared to the previous week [28]. - **Basis**：In Shanghai, the basis for January was 156 yuan/ton last Friday, an increase of 32 yuan compared to the previous week; in Beijing, the basis for January was 236 yuan/ton last Friday, an increase of 72 yuan compared to the previous week [44][47]. - **热轧** - **Production and Apparent Demand**：Last week, the production was 318.16 tons, a decrease of 5.40 tons compared to the previous week; the apparent demand was 314.30 tons, a decrease of 17.59 tons compared to the previous week [35]. - **Inventory**：The social inventory was 333.02 tons, an increase of 4.09 tons compared to the previous week; the steel - mill inventory was 77.43 tons, a decrease of 0.23 tons compared to the previous week; the total inventory was 410.45 tons, an increase of 3.86 tons compared to the previous week [40]. - **Basis**：In Shanghai, the basis for January was 15 yuan/ton last Friday, a decrease of 7 yuan compared to the previous week [51]. 3.3.2 煤焦 - **Inventory** - **Coke**：The total inventory (coke enterprises + steel mills + ports) was 887.01 tons last week, a decrease of 13.09 tons compared to the previous week [60]. - **Coking Coal**：The total inventory (coke enterprises + steel mills + coal mines + ports + coal - washing plants) was 2622.17 tons last week, an increase of 34.32 tons compared to the previous week [68]. - **Production and Related Data** - **Coke**：The average profit per ton of independent coke enterprises was - 22 yuan last week, an increase of 10 yuan compared to the previous week; the capacity utilization rate was 72.3%, a decrease of 1.1% compared to the previous week; the daily average coke production was 63.6 tons, a decrease of 1.0 ton compared to the previous week [76]. - **Coking Coal**：The daily average clean - coal production of 523 coking coal mines was 73.8 tons last week, a decrease of 2.0 tons compared to the previous week; the daily average pig - iron output of 247 steel mills was 234.22 tons, a decrease of 2.14 tons compared to the previous week [77]. - **Price Ratios and Basis** - **Price Ratios**：The ratio of coke January to coking coal January was 1.38 last Friday, unchanged compared to the previous week [82]. - **Basis**：For the basis of coke in Rizhao Port, the basis for January was - 68 yuan/ton last Friday, an increase of 31 yuan compared to the previous week [86]. 3.3.3 铁合金 - **Spot Prices** - **Manganese Ore**：The price of semi - carbonate manganese ore (Mn36%, South African origin) in Tianjin Port was 33.8 yuan/dry - ton degree last Friday, unchanged compared to the previous week [99]. - **Silicon - Manganese**：The spot price in Inner Mongolia was 5620 yuan/ton last Friday, a decrease of 40 yuan compared to the previous week [99]. - **Silicon - Iron**：The spot price in Inner Mongolia was 5220 yuan/ton last Friday, a decrease of 30 yuan compared to the previous week [99]. - **Inventory** - **Manganese Ore**：The total port inventory in the week of October 31 was 431.4 tons, a decrease of 11.3 tons compared to the previous week [102]. - **Silicon - Manganese**：The inventory of 63 independent silicon - manganese enterprises on November 7 was 319500 tons, an increase of 5000 tons compared to the previous week [116]. - **Silicon - Iron**：The inventory of 60 independent silicon - iron enterprises on November 7 was 78690 tons, an increase of 6700 tons compared to the previous week [116]. - **Production** - **Silicon - Manganese**：The weekly production of 187 independent silicon - manganese enterprises last week was 201880 tons, a decrease of 5845 tons compared to the previous week [104]. - **Silicon - Iron**：The weekly production of 136 independent silicon - iron enterprises last week was 11.41 tons, an increase of 0.09 tons compared to the previous week [107]. - **Demand** - **Silicon - Manganese**：The demand from five major steel types last week was 121113 tons, a decrease of 3379 tons compared to the previous week [112]. - **Silicon - Iron**：The demand from five major steel types last week was 19813.7 tons, a decrease of 462 tons compared to the previous week [112]. - **Import and Production** - **Manganese Ore**：The import volume in September was 308.49 tons, a decrease of 11.51% compared to the previous month [122]. - **Silicon - Manganese**：The production in October was 91.57 tons, an increase of 1.92% compared to the previous month [122]. - **Silicon - Iron**：The production in October was 50.53 tons, an increase of 3.5% compared to the previous month [122]. - **Steel - Mill Purchase Prices** - **Silicon - Manganese**：Hebei Iron and Steel's purchase price for silicon - manganese 6517 in October was 5820 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan compared to the previous month [125]. - **Silicon - Iron**：Hebei Iron and Steel's purchase price for silicon - iron FeSi75 - B in October was 5660 yuan/ton, a decrease of 140 yuan compared to the previous month [125].

晨报 铝锭 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 11 月 10 日 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:上周沪铝偏强运行。宏观上美国公债收益率在华盛顿政府继续关 门的情况下小幅走低，由于停摆非农就业报告依旧未能发布。 以伊冲突 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 右。2024 年 12 月 30 日-2025 年 1 月 5 日，10 个重点城市新建商品房成 交（签约）面积总计 223.4 万平方米，环比下降 40.3%，同比增长 43.2%。 成材昨日继续震荡下行，价格再创近期新低。在供需双弱的格局下， 市场情绪同样偏悲观，导致价格重心持续下移。无论从宏观上还是产业上， 市场近期均无太多亮点 ...

成材：回归基本面逻辑 偏弱震荡 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 11 月 10 日 晨报 成材 逻辑：上周，247 家钢厂盈利率较上周下降 5.19%至 39.83%，同比减 少 19.91 个百分点；高炉开工率环比增加 1.38%至 83.13%；高炉炼铁产能 利用率减少 0.8%至 87.81%；日均铁水产量降 2.14 万吨至 234.22 万吨。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 成材上周以震荡回落为主，螺纹钢价格在跌至 3000 整数关口后有支 撑，热卷跌至 ...