Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2) Core Views - For building materials (成材): Expected to move in a range with a downward - shifting center of gravity, and run in a weak and volatile manner. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with pessimistic market sentiment, and this year's winter storage is sluggish, providing little price support. The view is for volatile consolidation [1][3]. - For aluminum ingots: The price is expected to run in a short - term range. In the short term, the fundamentals are stable, but macro - overseas interference events repeatedly affect market sentiment. The price is currently in a high - level shock, and future attention should be paid to the inventory - consumption trend [4]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Building Materials - Production suspension impact: Yunnan - Guizhou short - process building steel enterprises' production suspension during the Spring Festival is expected to affect a total of 741,000 tons of building steel production. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5, and most of the rest will stop production around mid - January, with a daily production impact of about 16,200 tons during the suspension period [2][3]. - Real estate transaction data: From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3]. - Market situation: The price continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, reaching a new low recently. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with no significant highlights in the near term, and this year's winter storage is sluggish, providing little support for prices [3]. - Later focus: Macro - policies and downstream demand [3]. Aluminum - Supply - side situation: After entering October, due to the peak season of downstream processed materials demand, the proportion of direct aluminum water supply is expected to increase, resulting in low aluminum ingot production and reduced market supply, which supports the aluminum price [3]. - Demand - side situation: In early October, the overall performance of the aluminum processing industry was in line with seasonal characteristics, but there was obvious internal differentiation. The overall industry showed resilience, but the "Golden September and Silver October" in the demand side was lackluster, and the high aluminum price and order differentiation restricted the short - term upward space of the operating rate. High prices will gradually suppress downstream purchasing, leading to a marginal weakening of demand and limiting the upward space of aluminum prices [3]. - Inventory data: On October 13, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 650,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons from last Thursday and 58,000 tons from last Monday [3]. - Later focus: Macro - expectations, geopolitical crises, mine resumption, and consumption release [4].

晨报 成材 成材：受宏观扰动 钢价震荡走低 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 本报告中的信息均来源于公开的资料，我公司对信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证，也不保证包含的信 息和建议不会发生变更，我们已力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中观点、结论和建议仅供参考，投资者据此 做出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关。 地址：北京市海淀区海淀大街 8 号 19 层 ☎ 400-700-6700 www.zgfcc.com 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 10 月 15 日 逻辑：2 中钢协：2025 年 10 月上旬，重点钢企粗钢日产 203.2 万吨， 环比增 7.5%；钢材库存量 1588 万吨，环比 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - Iron ore's supply - demand contradiction is weak. The pressure of profit contraction in the industrial chain and the structural contradiction of finished product inventory limit the upward price ceiling, while the positive domestic macro - narrative provides support for the price floor. The price will fluctuate in the short - term, with the main contract of Dalian iron ore futures trading between 780 - 805 yuan/ton, corresponding to an external market price of about 104 - 107 US dollars/ton. The recommended strategy is interval operation and covered call options [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - External ore shipments decreased slightly month - on - month. Rio Tinto's shipments from Australia dropped significantly, while those from Brazil were relatively stable. The arrival volume reached a new high this year, and the support from the supply side continued to weaken [3] Demand - Domestic demand decreased month - on - month but remained at a high level, supporting the iron ore price. The daily average pig iron output this period was 241.54 tons (month - on - month - 0.27), higher than the average level in August (240.5). High pig iron production supported the iron ore price. The blast furnace operation rate in steel mills continued to decline slightly, with blast furnace restarts occurring in Hebei, and the blast furnaces under maintenance were mainly concentrated in Hebei, Northeast China, and Inner Mongolia for short - term maintenance, expected to resume production in two or three weeks [3] International Situation - Trump announced a 100% additional tariff on Chinese goods and export controls on key software and Boeing parts, but the possibility of the US raising tariffs by 100% is extremely low. It is expected that the two sides will restart communication on issues such as port service fees and rare - earth export controls, and related frictions may be alleviated periodically [3]

Group 1 - Report industry investment rating: Not provided Group 2 - Core view: The market is operating at a low level, with short - term downward pressure. Attention should be paid to the narrowing of the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [3] Group 3 Industry background - The Ministry of Transport will charge special port fees for US - related ships starting from October 14, 2025, which is a just measure to safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese industries and enterprises and the fair competition environment of international shipping [2] - In the first three quarters of this year, China's goods trade imports and exports reached 33.61 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4%. In September, the imports and exports were 4.04 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8% [2] Steel export and import data - In September 2025, China exported 1046.5 tons of steel, an increase of 95.5 tons from the previous month and a month - on - month increase of 10.0%. From January to September, the cumulative steel exports were 8795.5 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.2% [2] - In September, China imported 54.8 tons of steel, an increase of 4.8 tons from the previous month and a month - on - month increase of 9.6%. From January to September, the cumulative steel imports were 453.2 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.6% [2] Market performance - The prices of finished products fell yesterday, and both rebar and hot - rolled coil reached new recent lows. The market was more affected by Sino - US trade disputes, and the market risk sentiment cooled down [2] - During the National Day holiday, the fundamentals of finished products were relatively calm, and the weak downstream terminals continued to suppress steel prices. There was a slight differentiation between rebar and hot - rolled coil, with hot - rolled coil under more pressure [2] Outlook - The market will operate at a low level with short - term downward pressure, and attention should be paid to the narrowing of the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [3] - Key factors to watch in the later stage include macro - policies and downstream demand [3]

晨报 铝锭 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：宏观不确定性干扰 关注库消走势 投资咨询业务资格： 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:昨日沪铝高位运行。宏观美国总统特朗普的措辞有所转变，缓和 了持续紧张的贸易关系，但不确定性仍强，关注情绪扰动。 以伊冲突 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 右。2024 年 12 月 30 日-2025 年 1 月 5 日，10 个重点城市新建商品房成 交（签约）面积总计 223.4 万平方米，环比下降 40.3%，同比增长 43.2%。 成材昨日继续震荡下行，价格再创近期新低。在供需双弱的格局下， 市场情绪同样偏悲观，导致价格重心持续下移。无论从宏观上还是产业上， 市场近期均无太多亮点。且今年冬储偏低迷，对价格支撑不强。 观点：震荡整理运行。 ...

华宝期货 2025.10.13 目录 01 周度行情回顾 02 本周黑色行情预判 03 品种数据（成材、铁矿石、煤焦、铁合金） 【华宝期货】黑色产业链周报 01 周度行情回顾 | 品种 | | | 期货主力合约收盘价格 | | | 现货价格 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CONOMO: 010 | | 2025.10.10 | 2025.9.30 | | 价格变动 | | 2025.10.10 | 2025.9.30 | | 价格变动 | | 螺纹钢 | RB2601 | 3103 | 3072 | 31 | 1.01% | HRB400E: Φ20:汇总价格:上海 | 3230 | 3230 | 0 | 0.00% | | 热轧卷板 | HC2601 | 3285 | 3253 | 32 | 0.98% | Q235B: 5.75*1500*C: 市场价: 上海 | 3340 | 3330 | 10 | 0.30% | | 铁矿石 | 12601 | 795 | 780.5 | ...

华宝期货 2025.10.13 【华宝期货】有色金属周报 周度行情回顾 | 品种 | | | 期货主力合约收盘价格 | | | 现货价格 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 2025.10.10 2025.9.30 | 周变动 | 周涨跌幅 | | | 2025.10.10 2025.9.30 | 周变动 | 周涨跌幅 | | 铜 | CU2511 | 85910 | 83110 | 2800 | 3. 37% | 中国:平均价:铜:上海物贸 | 86675 | 83030 | 3645 | 4. 39% | | 品 | AL2511 | 20980 | 20680 | 300 | 1. 45% | 中国:平均价:铝(A00):有色市场 | 21020 | 20730 | 290 | 1. 40% | | 锌 | ZN2511 | 22270 | 21825 | 445 | 2. 04% | 中国:价格:锌锭(0#,Zn99. 995,国产,进口) | 22710 | 215 ...

晨报 成材 成材：宏观影响增强 短期承压 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 10 月 13 日 逻辑：商务部新闻发言人就近期中方相关经贸政策措施情况答记者问 时表示，中国的出口管制不是禁止出口，对符合规定的申请将予以许可。 中方事先已就措施可能对产供链产生的影响进行了充分评估，并确信相关 影响非常有限。如果美方一意孤行，中方也必将坚决采取相应措施，维护 自身正当权益。上周，247 家钢厂高炉炼铁产能利用率 90.55%，环比上周 减少 0.10 个百分点；钢厂盈利率 56.28%，环比上周减少 0.43 个百分点； 日均铁水产量 241.54 万吨，环比上周减少 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Report's Core View - The view on finished products is that they will operate in a state of shock consolidation, with the price center moving down and showing weak operation [1][3]. - The view on aluminum ingots is that the price is expected to undergo short - term shock adjustment, and it is necessary to pay attention to macro - sentiment and mining - end news. In the short term, it is expected to maintain high - level shock, and then pay attention to the inventory - consumption trend [4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Finished Products - In the Yunnan - Guizhou region, short - process construction steel enterprises' shutdown and maintenance during the Spring Festival are mostly from mid - January, and the resumption time is expected to be around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, with an estimated impact on the total construction steel output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills started to shut down on January 5, and most of the rest will shut down around mid - January, with a daily impact on output of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [3]. - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3]. - The finished products continued to decline in shock yesterday, reaching a new low recently. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and this year's winter storage is sluggish, with weak price support [3]. - Later, it is necessary to pay attention to macro - policies and downstream demand [3]. Aluminum Ingots - In September, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased by 1.14% year - on - year and decreased by 3.18% month - on - month. In October, the overall performance of the aluminum processing industry was in line with seasonal characteristics but showed obvious internal differentiation [3]. - The aluminum cable and wire production rate declined, but the orders from the power grid and photovoltaic sectors were still strong. The aluminum profile production rate decreased slightly, with the new orders for construction profiles being weak. The aluminum plate and strip production rate decreased to 68.0%, and the aluminum foil production rate decreased slightly [3]. - On October 13, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in the domestic mainstream consumption areas was 650,000 tons, an increase of 1000 tons from last Thursday and 58,000 tons from last Monday [3]. - Later, it is necessary to pay attention to changes in macro - expectations, the development of geopolitical crises, the resumption of production at the mining end, and the release of consumption [4].

晨报 煤焦 煤焦：宏观因素扰动 盘面震荡偏弱 投资咨询业务资格： 逻辑：节后煤焦期价震荡反弹，周五夜盘再度走弱。近期中美关税冲 突风险上升，对于煤焦出口虽无明显的直接影响，但市场情绪受到扰动， 增加了价格下行风险概率。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 10 月 13 日 重要声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开的资料，我公司对信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证，也不保证包含的信 息和建议不会发生变更，我们已力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中观点、结论和建议仅供参考，投 ...