Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Aluminum: Macro remains strong, with the dual catalysis of domestic monetary easing and consumption new policies boosting risk appetite in the commodity market and strengthening demand expectations, causing aluminum prices to remain strong at high levels. However, the domestic off - season continues, inventories are gradually accumulating, and with downstream enterprises gradually on holiday approaching the Spring Festival, beware of high - price risks [11]. - Zinc: The strength of non - ferrous metals drives zinc prices to remain high. Medium - and long - term production increases still put pressure on the upside, but it takes time to materialize. The price is strong in the short - term range, and attention should be paid to macro - risk events and the trends of domestic and overseas inventories [13]. - Tin: Tin prices are operating at high levels [14]. - Lithium carbonate: There is an oscillatory game, with policy disturbances being the main factor, and the futures and spot markets are moving up in tandem [15]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 01. Weekly Review of Non - ferrous Metals Market No relevant content provided. 02. Forecast of This Week's Non - ferrous Metals Market - **Aluminum** - Logic: Last week, SHFE aluminum fluctuated strongly. Macroeconomically, the slowdown in US non - farm employment growth in December exceeded expectations, but the unemployment rate declined, boosting confidence in the economy avoiding recession. Fundamentally, domestic bauxite is in short supply in the north, and alumina plants' willingness to purchase bauxite at a premium is weak due to the continuous decline in alumina prices. The domestic bauxite price is expected to decline further. The import bauxite market has a divergence in the intended prices of buyers and sellers, with overall sluggish transactions. However, the long - term contract prices in the first quarter are generally stable, and the resumption of shipments in some mining areas supports future supply. Last week, the weekly operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises rebounded by 0.2 percentage points to 60.1%, showing a pattern of "alleviated supply - side disturbances and intensified demand - side suppression", and high aluminum prices are the core factor suppressing downstream consumption and industry operating rate recovery [11]. - Viewpoint: Macro remains strong, and the dual catalysis of domestic monetary easing and consumption new policies boosts risk appetite in the commodity market and strengthens demand expectations, causing aluminum prices to remain strong at high levels. However, the domestic off - season continues, inventories are gradually accumulating, and with downstream enterprises gradually on holiday approaching the Spring Festival, beware of high - price risks [11]. - **Zinc** - Logic: Last week, zinc prices fluctuated at high levels. The SMM Zn50 domestic weekly TC average price remained flat week - on - week, while the SMM imported zinc concentrate index decreased by 6.25 US dollars per dry ton. In January, the window for importing zinc concentrates in China remained open, and smelters' enthusiasm for purchasing domestic zinc concentrates decreased. The decline in domestic zinc concentrate processing fees has slowed down, but the supply - demand pattern has not improved significantly, and it will take time for processing fees to rebound. The operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises decreased by 1.83 percentage points to 49.90%. In terms of inventory, after the New Year's Day holiday, the center of zinc prices shifted significantly upward, and die - casting zinc alloy enterprises' purchasing enthusiasm was low, resulting in a decrease in raw material inventories and an obvious accumulation of finished product inventories. Terminal orders weakened, and new orders from enterprises were mostly concentrated on rigid - demand purchases. In addition, the price difference between copper and aluminum increased significantly, the zinc - aluminum price difference narrowed, and the zinc - copper price difference widened, leading to an increase in processing fees by die - casting zinc alloy enterprises [13]. - Viewpoint: The strength of non - ferrous metals drives zinc prices to remain high. Medium - and long - term production increases still put pressure on the upside, but it takes time to materialize. The price is strong in the short - term range, and attention should be paid to macro - risk events and the trends of domestic and overseas inventories [13]. - **Tin** - Logic: In November, the shortage of raw materials eased, with an increase in the import volume of tin concentrates from Myanmar and Congo (Kinshasa). The operating rate of domestic smelting enterprises remained at the current level, with limited probability of further increase. The downstream semiconductor market is stable, but industries such as new energy vehicles and home appliances are gradually entering the off - season. Recently, the sharp increase in tin prices is mainly due to the significant increase in the risk appetite of the metal market led by precious metals and non - ferrous metals, and the price volatility of tin has increased significantly [14]. - Viewpoint: Tin prices are operating at high levels [14]. - **Lithium Carbonate** - Logic: Last week, the lithium carbonate contract fluctuated significantly in the range, with the main contract rising 17.96% week - on - week to 143,420 yuan per ton. The spot price also increased. On the supply side, raw material prices rose sharply, the operating rate decreased slightly but production increased slightly, and there were significant differences in production processes. On the demand side, the production of cathode materials and power cells decreased slightly, but inventories were depleted, and the high penetration rate of new energy vehicles supported demand. In terms of inventory, the total inventory increased slightly, with significant differences in different links. In terms of cost and profit, the whole industry chain turned profitable, and the profit elasticity of lithium mica was high. Macroeconomic policies formed synergistic benefits, and short - term regulatory tightening measures were taken [15]. - Viewpoint: There is an oscillatory game, with policy disturbances being the main factor, and the futures and spot markets are moving up in tandem [15]. 03. Variety Data Aluminum - **Bauxite** - Price: The price of domestic high - grade bauxite in Henan remained unchanged week - on - week at 620 yuan per ton in the week of January 9, and decreased by 50 yuan year - on - year; the price of domestic low - grade bauxite in Henan remained unchanged week - on - week at 550 yuan per ton, and decreased by 50 yuan year - on - year; the average price of imported bauxite index was 67.61 US dollars per ton in the week of January 9, down 0.74 US dollars week - on - week and 40.65 US dollars year - on - year [20]. - Arrival and Departure Volume: The arrival volume at ports was 4.0423 million tons in the week of January 9, down 483,800 tons week - on - week and 186,500 tons year - on - year; the departure volume at ports was 5.8804 million tons, up 1.1296 million tons week - on - week and 2.5927 million tons year - on - year [25]. - **Alumina** - Price, Cost, and Profit: The domestic price in Henan was 2,670 yuan per ton in the week of January 12, down 20 yuan week - on - week and 2,610 yuan year - on - year; the full cost was 2,714.3 yuan per ton in the week of January 9, down 59.6 yuan week - on - week and 734 yuan year - on - year; the profit in Shanxi was - 171.67 yuan per ton in the week of January 9, up 27.14 yuan week - on - week and down 2,036.16 yuan year - on - year [28]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum** - Total Cost: The total cost was 16,197.37 yuan per ton in the week of January 9, up 59.19 yuan week - on - week and down 5,054.46 yuan year - on - year [30]. - Regional Price Difference: The price difference between Foshan and SMM A00 aluminum was 90 yuan per ton in the week of January 9, up 150 yuan week - on - week and 30 yuan year - on - year [30]. - **Downstream Processing of Electrolytic Aluminum** - Operating Rate: The operating rate of aluminum cables was 59.6 in the week of January 8, up 2 week - on - week and down 0.4 year - on - year; the operating rate of aluminum foil was 70.7, up 1.4 week - on - week and down 3.3 year - on - year; the operating rate of aluminum sheets and strips was 65, up 2 week - on - week and down 1.6 year - on - year; the operating rate of aluminum profiles was 48.8, down 1.9 week - on - week and up 13.3 year - on - year; the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy was 58.4, down 0.2 week - on - week and up 3.4 year - on - year; the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy was 58, down 2 week - on - week and up 4.9 year - on - year [36][37]. - **Inventory** - Bonded - area Inventory: The bonded - area inventory in Shanghai was 41,000 tons in the week of January 8, up 2,700 tons week - on - week and down 3,800 tons year - on - year; the total bonded - area inventory was 55,400 tons, up 1,200 tons week - on - week and 1,400 tons year - on - year [42]. - Social Inventory: The social inventory was 730,000 tons in the week of January 12, up 46,000 tons week - on - week and 271,000 tons year - on - year [42]. - Weekly Outbound Volume of Aluminum Ingots in Major Consumption Areas: The weekly outbound volume was 66,100 tons in the week of January 5, down 33,500 tons week - on - week and 59,000 tons year - on - year [42]. - SHFE Inventory: The SHFE inventory was 143,828 tons in the week of January 9, up 14,010 tons week - on - week and down 34,646 tons year - on - year [43]. - LME Inventory: The LME inventory was 497,825 tons in the week of January 8, down 11,425 tons week - on - week and 121,450 tons year - on - year [43]. - **Spot and Basis** - Spot: SMM A00 aluminum [46]. - Basis: The basis for the current month was - 425 yuan per ton in the week of January 9, up 65 yuan week - on - week and down 210 yuan year - on - year; the basis for the main contract was - 300 yuan per ton, up 165 yuan week - on - week and down 25 yuan year - on - year; the basis for the third - consecutive contract was - 390 yuan per ton, up 130 yuan week - on - week and down 85 yuan year - on - year [49]. - **Monthly Spread of SHFE Aluminum** - Spread: The spread between the current month and the main contract was 125 yuan per ton in the week of January 9, up 100 yuan week - on - week and 130 yuan year - on - year; the spread between the current month and the third - consecutive contract was 35 yuan per ton, up 65 yuan week - on - week and 150 yuan year - on - year [50]. Zinc - **Zinc Concentrate** - Price and Processing Fee: The price of domestic zinc concentrate was 20,755 yuan per metal ton in the week of January 12, up 135 yuan week - on - week and 657 yuan year - on - year; the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee was 1,500 yuan per metal ton in the week of January 9, remaining unchanged week - on - week and down 450 yuan year - on - year; the imported zinc concentrate processing fee was 37.5 US dollars per dry ton, down 6.25 US dollars week - on - week [58]. - Production Profit, Import Profit and Loss, and Inventory: The enterprise production profit was 7,668 yuan per metal ton in the week of January 9, up 598 yuan week - on - week and 42 yuan year - on - year; the import profit and loss was 398.7 yuan per ton, up 419.85 yuan week - on - week and 142 yuan year - on - year; the inventory of imported zinc concentrate in Lianyungang was 110,000 physical tons in the week of January 9, down 20,000 tons week - on - week and up 10,000 tons year - on - year [61]. - **Refined Zinc Inventory** - Social Inventory of Zinc Ingots: The SMM seven - region social inventory of zinc ingots was 118,300 tons in the week of January 12, up 3,500 tons week - on - week and 57,300 tons year - on - year [65]. - Bonded - area Inventory of Zinc Ingots: The bonded - area inventory was 3,300 tons in the week of January 8, remaining unchanged week - on - week and down 2,200 tons year - on - year [65]. - SHFE Refined Zinc Inventory: The SHFE refined zinc inventory was 73,852 tons in the week of January 9, up 4,059 tons week - on - week and 52,812 tons year - on - year [65]. - LME Zinc Inventory: The LME zinc inventory was 107,450 tons in the week of January 8, up 1,125 tons week - on - week and down 109,450 tons year - on - year [65]. - **Galvanized** - Production: The production was 313,970 tons in the week of January 8, down 1,510 tons week - on - week and 4,520 tons year - on - year [69]. - Operating Rate: The operating rate was 54.39 in the week of January 8, up 1.41 week - on - week and 0.67 year - on - year [69]. - Inventory: The raw material inventory was 12,480 tons in the week of January 8, down 1,485 tons week - on - week and 1,335 tons year - on - year; the finished product inventory was 373,000 tons, up 10,100 tons week - on - week and down 20,300 tons year - on - year [69]. - **Basis of Zinc: SMM 0 Zinc Ingot** - Spot: SMM 0 zinc ingot [70]. - Basis: The basis for the current month was 110 yuan per ton in the week of January 9, up 190 yuan week - on - week and down 325 yuan year - on - year; the basis for the main contract was 60 yuan per ton, up 15 yuan week - on - week and down 565 yuan year - on - year; the basis for the third - consecutive contract was - 20 yuan per ton, down 5 yuan week - on - week and 720 yuan year - on - year [73]. - **Monthly Spread of SHFE Zinc** - Spread: The spread between the current month and the main contract was - 50 yuan per ton in the week of January 9, down 175 yuan week - on - week and 240 yuan year - on - year; the spread between the current month and the third - consecutive contract was - 130 yuan per ton, down 195 yuan week - on - week and 395 yuan year - on - year [74]. Tin - **Refined Tin** - Production and Operating Rate: The combined production of refined tin in Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces was 0.3362 million tons in the week of January 9, down 0.003 million tons week - on - week and up 0.0337 million tons year - on - year; the combined operating rate was 69.38% in the week of January 9, down 0.62 percentage points week - on - week and up 6.96 percentage points year - on - year [83]. - **Tin Ingot Inventory** - SHFE Tin Ingot Inventory: The total SHFE tin ingot inventory was 6,935 tons in the week of January 9, down 1,001 tons week - on - week and up 582 tons year - on - year [86]. - Social Inventory of Tin Ingots in China by Region: The social inventory of tin ingots in China by region was 7,478 tons in the week of January 9, down 1,042 tons week -

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The positive statements in the central bank meeting boosted market sentiment. After the start of the year, the production of coal, coke and steel enterprises has recovered. The pre - holiday replenishment of raw materials by downstream enterprises supports the price - holding confidence of upstream enterprises. The short - term futures price fluctuates sharply, and cautious operation is recommended [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Market Performance - Last week, the ferrous metal sector generally rose, with coking coal rising more than 7%. The central bank emphasized promoting high - quality economic development and reasonable price recovery, strengthening the expectation of loose monetary policy and stimulating the sentiment of the ferrous metal sector with relatively low valuation to warm up [3] Supply Side - After the start of the year, coal mines have gradually resumed production. Last week, the output of coking raw coal and clean coal rebounded to 1899000 tons and 734000 tons respectively. The raw coal inventory at the mine end increased, while the clean coal inventory decreased. The daily customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port last week was 164600 tons, 37400 tons higher than the same period last year, and the port inventory remained at a relatively high level [3] Demand Side - In the past two weeks, the profit rate of steel mills has slightly expanded. The daily average hot metal output of blast furnaces stopped falling and rebounded. In the week of January 9th, it was 2.295 million tons, an increase of 20700 tons compared with the previous week and 51300 tons compared with the same period last year. It is expected to show a steady and small increase in the short - term, and the raw material replenishment rhythm of steel mills is expected to accelerate later [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate futures market is expected to operate strongly, and attention should be paid to market sentiment, cost, and marginal changes in supply and demand [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Performance - Last week, the main contract of lithium carbonate fluctuated widely during the day, closing at 143,420 yuan/ton. Trading volume dropped significantly to 469,000 lots, and open interest slightly decreased to 510,900 lots. Trading sentiment cooled significantly. The net short position of the main funds continued, the long - short ratio slightly increased, and the warehouse receipts slightly decreased to 25,360 lots. The basis of the main contract narrowed to - 3,420 yuan/ton [2] 3.2 Spot Market Performance - The average price of SMM electric carbon was 140,000 yuan/ton. Price increases promoted upstream scattered orders, and downstream had rigid demand. When the futures price fell to the spot price range, downstream inquiries were active, and the increase in transactions drove up the spot price [2] 3.3 Supply - Side Situation - Last week, raw material prices increased by more than 9% week - on - week, strengthening cost support. The total weekly operating rate of SMM lithium carbonate decreased by 1.05% week - on - week. The operating rates of spodumene and salt lakes decreased slightly, while those of lepidolite and recycling increased slightly. The total output increased by 0.5% week - on - week, and production capacity was further released [3] 3.4 Demand - Side Situation - There was significant structural differentiation on the demand side. Last week, the output of SMM iron - lithium and ternary batteries decreased by 3.3% and 1.3% respectively week - on - week, with inventory destocking. The output of SMM power cells decreased slightly, the sales and penetration rate of SMM new energy vehicles reached new highs, and the production schedule of energy - storage cells increased slightly to support demand [3] 3.5 Inventory Situation - Last week, the SMM sample weekly inventory increased by 0.3% week - on - week, showing signs of inventory accumulation for the first time. The total inventory days increased slightly to 28 days [3] 3.6 Policy Factors - In 2026, policies such as automobile trade - in subsidies, Fed rate cuts, Qinghai salt - lake industry plans, 14th Five - Year Plan for energy - storage, and a series of deployments from the Central Economic Work Conference formed coordinated benefits to support long - term supply - demand balance. In the short term, regulations have been tightened. On January 4, the "Solid Waste Comprehensive Management Action Plan" may intensify short - term supply shortages. On January 9, the reduction of the battery export tax - rebate policy may trigger short - term export rush demand [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Group 2: Core View of the Report - The steel price is expected to move in a low - level consolidation [3]. Group 3: Summary based on Report Content Steel Demand - In December 2025, the actual steel procurement volume of construction enterprises was 6.6% lower month - on - month at 667 million tons; the planned steel procurement volume in January was 578 million tons, with a possible significant month - on - month decline in actual procurement volume [2]. - In December 2025, the domestic retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 1.337 million, a year - on - year increase of 2.6% and a month - on - month increase of 1.2%; the cumulative retail sales from January to December were 12.809 million, a 17.6% increase [2]. Steel Supply - Last week, the average capacity utilization rate of 95 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 56.91%, a 1.76 - percentage - point increase; the average start - up rate was 72.97%, a 4.34 - percentage - point increase [2]. - Last week, the blast furnace start - up rate of 247 steel mills was 79.31%, a 0.37 - percentage - point increase; the profit rate was 37.66%, a 0.44 - percentage - point decrease; the daily average hot metal output was 2.295 million tons, a 20,700 - ton increase [2]. Steel Price Movement - Last week, the finished steel price first rose and then fell. The increase in raw materials during the week drove up the steel price, but due to weak fundamentals (slight increase in supply and low demand), the steel price oscillated and declined, performing weaker than raw materials. The macro - market was calm with limited impact on prices [2].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The positive statements from the central bank meeting have boosted market sentiment. Attention should be paid to the intensity of downstream raw material replenishment before the festival. The price is fluctuating sharply, so cautious operation is required [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Content Market Performance - Yesterday, the ferrous metal sector generally rose, with coking coal and coke closing at the daily limit and maintaining an upward trend in the night session [3] Market Driving Factors - The central bank emphasized promoting high - quality economic development and reasonable price recovery, strengthening the expectation of loose monetary policy and boosting the sentiment of the relatively undervalued ferrous metal sector [3] Supply Side - There was concentrated year - end production reduction and maintenance in major coal - producing areas at the end of last year. After the new year, coal mines resumed production. This week, the production of raw coal and clean coal rebounded to 1.899 million tons and 734,000 tons respectively [3] - Recently, the customs clearance of Mongolian coal has slightly decreased, but the port inventory is still relatively high. The rumor about some coal mines in Yulin being removed from the supply - guarantee list and having their production capacity reduced mainly affects thermal coal, with limited impact on coking coal supply [3] Demand Side - The profitability rate of steel mills has slightly expanded in the past two weeks, and the daily average hot - metal output of blast furnaces has stopped falling and rebounded. In the week of January 2nd, it was 227,430 tons, a week - on - week increase of 850 tons and a year - on - year increase of 2,230 tons. It is expected to show a steady and slight upward trend in the short term, and the steel mills' raw material replenishment rhythm is expected to accelerate later [3] Inventory - The accumulation speed of mine - end inventory has slowed down this week [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The price of finished products will move in a range-bound manner, with the price center shifting downward and showing a weak trend. The price of aluminum ingots is expected to remain high in the short term. Attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and mine - end news [1][2][3] Summary by Related Content Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises will stop production during the Spring Festival from mid - January, with a resumption around the 11th - 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5th, and most others will stop around mid - January, with a daily impact of about 16,200 tons [1][2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2] - The price of finished products continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. The market sentiment is pessimistic under the weak supply - demand pattern, and winter storage is sluggish this year, providing little price support [2] Aluminum Ingots - Yesterday, Shanghai aluminum was strong at a high level. The US December non - farm payrolls data was lower than expected, which led to an increase in the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut [1] - In the spot market, downstream procurement in East China is active due to low basis; trading sentiment in the Central Plains has improved, but there is little market supply; the South China market is hot, with tight arrivals, inventory reduction, and strong bullish sentiment among holders [2] - Last week, the operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises dropped by 1 percentage point to 59.9%. Aluminum foil operating rate remained stable, while other processing materials declined to varying degrees [2] - Since mid - December, domestic aluminum ingot inventory has started to accumulate, breaking through 600,000 tons and 650,000 tons. The inventory at the end of December increased by nearly 15% compared to December 18. The inventory accumulation is due to the combination of increased supply arrivals, weak demand digestion, industrial structure adjustment, and high prices suppressing consumption [2] - Macro - sentiment boosts the price, but the domestic off - season continues with inventory accumulation. Attention should be paid to high - price risks, macro - heat sustainability, and downstream feedback [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report predicts that the price of lithium carbonate will experience range - bound fluctuations, and it is necessary to focus on marginal changes in supply and demand [2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Performance - Yesterday morning, the main lithium carbonate contract opened more than 7% higher, reaching 147,000 yuan/ton, then fell back to around 140,000 yuan/ton, with 420,000 lots traded and 506,500 lots in open interest, showing an increase in volume and a decrease in open interest [3]. - The net short position of the main funds continued, the long - to - short ratio slightly decreased, and some funds took profits [3]. - The average price of SMM electric carbon was 133,500 yuan/ton, the basis of the main contract narrowed, but it was still at a negative basis [3]. Supply and Demand Fundamentals - **Supply**: Last week, the weekly operating rate and weekly output of SMM lithium carbonate both increased by 1.2% month - on - month, with further release of production capacity, and the cost - side support continued to strengthen as upstream raw material prices continued to rise [4]. - **Demand**: There was a significant structural differentiation in demand. The demand for lithium iron phosphate was strong, with high year - on - year production growth and inventory depletion, benefiting from cost - effective terminal models and energy storage demand. The demand for ternary materials was weak, with a year - on - year decline in cell production and inventory accumulation in the material sector. The sales and penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached new highs, providing a solid support for lithium carbonate demand [4]. Inventory - Last week, the total weekly inventory of the SMM sample decreased by 0.15% month - on - month, and the inventory depletion slope slowed down. The total inventory days remained at 26.1 days, the same as the previous week. The inventory structure shifted from the production and consumption ends to the trading end, and the tight inventory pattern remained unchanged [4]. Policy - In 2026, the subsidy for car trade - ins, the Fed's interest rate cuts, the industrial plan for Qinghai salt lakes, the key points of energy storage in the 15th Five - Year Plan, and a series of deployments from the Central Economic Work Conference formed a coordinated positive effect to support long - term supply - demand balance [4]. - In the short term, regulatory tightening was clear, and measures such as trading limits on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange were taken to stabilize price fluctuations [4]. - On January 4th, the issuance of the "Solid Waste Comprehensive Management Action Plan" by the State Council, combined with news of mine复产, still provided upward price drive, but market sentiment ebbed, and some funds took profits [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Domestic macro - narrative is positive with rising expectations of incremental monetary policy. The fundamentals of the industrial chain have improved, there is a demand for iron ore replenishment, and supply is entering the off - season. However, the price increase is limited by the industrial chain profit. It is expected to be mainly volatile in the short term [2][3]. - The expected high - price range is 810 - 820 yuan/ton, corresponding to the outer - disk (FE02) price of about 105.5 - 107.5 US dollars/ton. The strategy is range operation and covered call options [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Macro - aspect - Domestic monetary and fiscal policies are in an active reserve period. The start of the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle boosts commodities. The industrial chain is in a weak - balance stage with prices maintaining a narrow - fluctuation trend. This is because the inventory pressure at the finished - product end is continuously relieved, the industrial chain valuation rebounds, the strong spot price of iron ore supports the market, and steel mills have entered the replenishment cycle [2]. Supply - The year - end phased volume - rush of mainstream mines' shipments has ended, and the weekly shipment volume has dropped significantly. Outer - mine shipments will enter the seasonal off - season, and domestic ore supply is also in the off - season. Overall, the supply - side support is getting stronger [2]. Demand - Domestic demand is continuously rising slightly. The profitability of steel mills has rebounded after the decline in carbon - element prices. There are both blast - furnace overhauls and restarts. Some overhauled blast furnaces in Hebei and Shanxi will restart at the end of the month. In general, domestic steel - mill demand has a short - term upward trend, and the pre - holiday replenishment cycle is about to start, with replenishment demand expected to be continuously released [3]. Inventory - The imported inventory at the steel - mill end has increased month on month, but it is still at the lowest level in the same period in recent years. Attention should be paid to when the full - scale replenishment of US - dollar goods by steel mills will start. Port inventory has been continuously accumulating due to the relatively high arrival volume, and it is expected that port inventory will continue to accumulate in December [3].

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Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, and the price of aluminum ingots is expected to be strong in the short term [2][4][5] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Finished Products - The production enterprises of short - process construction steel in the Yunnan - Guizhou region will have a shutdown and maintenance period during the Spring Festival from mid - to late January, with an expected impact on the total output of construction steel of 741,000 tons [3] - In Anhui Province, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills has stopped production on January 5th, and most of the remaining steel mills will stop production around mid - January, with a daily impact on output of about 16,200 tons [4] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [4] - The price of finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, reaching a new low in the recent period. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is also pessimistic, leading to a continuous downward shift of the price center [4] - The winter storage this year is sluggish, providing weak support for prices [4] Aluminum Ingots - Yesterday, Shanghai Aluminum showed a strong performance. Macroscopically, Fed officials had different statements, and the federal funds rate futures market still believes that the probability of the Fed keeping the interest rate unchanged at the next meeting from January 27th to 28th is about 82% [3] - As of January 6, 2026, the SMM imported bauxite index was reported at $67.65 per ton, a decrease of $0.41 per ton from the previous trading day, mainly due to the decline in the intended transaction price of both buyers and sellers compared with the previous period [4] - The average CIF price of SMM Guinea bauxite was reported at $65 per ton, a decrease of $2.5 per ton from the previous trading day [4] - In the domestic bauxite market, the tight supply in the north and the continuous weakening of alumina prices are in a game. Currently, alumina plants have a low willingness to purchase bauxite at a premium, and the domestic bauxite price is expected to have some downward space [4] - In the imported bauxite market, there are still differences in the intended transaction prices of both buyers and sellers recently. The long - term contract prices in the first quarter are generally stable, and the resumption of shipments in some mining areas also provides support for the long - term supply [4] - Last week, the operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises decreased by 1 percentage point to 59.9% compared with the previous week. The operating rate of aluminum foil remained stable, while other processed materials declined to varying degrees [4] - Since mid - December, domestic aluminum ingot inventories have started to accumulate, breaking through the two integer thresholds of 600,000 tons and 650,000 tons. The cumulative inventory increase at the end of December compared with the inventory on December 18 was close to 15% [4] - The continuous inventory accumulation of domestic aluminum ingots is mainly due to the superposition of four factors: "increased arrival of supply, weak digestion on the demand side, industrial structure adjustment, and high aluminum prices suppressing consumption" [4] - Driven by the boost of macro - sentiment and the fermentation of geopolitical risks, the price is strong at a high level. However, the domestic off - season continues, inventories are gradually accumulating, and downstream enterprises are gradually on holiday approaching the Spring Festival. Be vigilant against the high - price risk and pay attention to the continuity of macro - enthusiasm and downstream feedback [5]