Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the reports. Group 2: Core Views - The view on finished products is that they will operate in a volatile and consolidating manner [2]. - The view on aluminum ingots is that the price is expected to run at a high level in the short - term, and attention should be paid to macro sentiment and mine - end news [3]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Finished Products - Yungui region's short - process construction steel producers will stop production and conduct maintenance from mid - January, with an expected impact on the total building steel output of 741,000 tons during the shutdown, and the resumption time is expected to be from the 11th to the 16th day of the first lunar month [1]. - In Anhui Province, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5th, most of the rest will stop production around mid - January, and the daily impact on output during the shutdown is about 16,200 tons [2]. - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2]. - Finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, hitting a new low recently. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is also pessimistic, and the price center continues to move down. Winter storage is sluggish this year, providing little support for prices [2]. Aluminum Ingots - In September, the import volume of bauxite was 15.88 million tons, a 13.2% decrease from the previous period and a 37.5% increase year - on - year. The delivery volume from Guinea decreased by 14.9% to 10.49 million tons in September due to the impact of the rainy season on mining and shipping in July and August [2]. - Last week, the average operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises was 62.5%, a 1.4 - percentage - point decrease compared with the same period last year. The operating rate of aluminum plate and strip leading enterprises was stable at 68%, but due to the off - season expectation and Trump's tariff, the procurement was cautious, and the operating rate is expected to decline gradually. The operating rate of the aluminum cable industry was 64%, and it may continue to be weak and stable in the short term. The operating rate of the aluminum profile industry decreased slightly to 53.5%, and it is expected to be weak and stable in the short term [2]. - On October 20, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 625,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from last Thursday and 25,000 tons from last Monday [2]. Market Outlook - The finished products are expected to operate in a volatile and consolidating manner, and attention should be paid to macro policies and downstream demand [2]. - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to run at a high level in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro sentiment, geopolitical crisis development, mine - end resumption, and consumption release [3].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Short - term coal and coke supply increases while demand decreases, both are at relatively high levels. Attention should be paid to the impact of the increase in imported coal on the market. Market sentiment is easily disturbed by changes in macro - factors, and prices should be treated with cautious optimism [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Content - **Price Movement**: Yesterday, the futures prices of coal and coke fluctuated weakly, and the night - session prices rebounded slightly with relatively intense overall fluctuations. The spot market is generally stable with a slight upward trend. Some coke enterprises in certain regions have sent letters for the second round of coke price increases, but mainstream coke enterprises have not yet increased prices and are still in the game process [3]. - **Import Data**: China's coking coal imports have been increasing month - by - month. In September, imports were 10.9237 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.49% and a year - on - year increase of 5.41%. From January to September, cumulative imports were 83.5312 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.45% with the decline continuing to narrow. In September, imports of Mongolian coal were 6.0005 million tons, a month - on - month slight decrease of 0.24% and a year - on - year increase of 45.48%. From January to September, imports of Mongolian coal were 41.747 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8% with the decline significantly narrowing. The continuous increase in coking coal imports will put some pressure on coal prices [2][3]. - **High - frequency Data**: Since the resumption of Mongolian coal customs clearance after the National Day, the daily average coal clearance volume at Ganqimaodu is 151,200 tons, a decrease of 16,800 tons compared to September. The impact of changes in Mongolian coal imports needs to be continuously monitored [3]. - **Later Focus**: Concerns include changes in steel mill blast furnace start - up and coal mine resumption of production [4].

成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 晨报 铁矿石 铁矿石：铁矿石延续弱势 关注宏观政策增量 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 10 月 21 日 逻辑：昨日碳元素因供给端扰动，价格相对强势，成材价格短期有所企稳但整体价格重心 下移，铁矿石价格相对弱势，创出 7 月份高点以来新低。整体看，黑色系情绪依然偏弱，短期 关注国内宏观政策增量。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 负责人：赵 毅 供应方面：外矿发运环比小幅回升，其中澳洲力拓、FMG 发运回升相对显著，巴西发运相对 平稳。到港量创今年来新高后回归中位水平，整体看，供给端支撑力度仍持续减弱 ...

晨报 成材 成材：月度宏观数据偏弱 钢价弱势运行 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1452 号 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 成文时间： 2025 年 10 月 21 日 成材：月度宏观数据偏弱 钢价弱势运行 逻辑：国家统计局数据显示：2025 年 9 月，中国粗钢产量 7349 万吨， 同比下降 4.6%；生铁产量 6605 万吨，同比下降 2.4%；钢材产量 12421 万吨，同比增长 5.1%。1-9 月，中国粗钢产量 74625 万吨，同比下降 2.9%； 生铁产量 64586 万吨，同比下降 1.1%；钢材产量 110385 万吨，同比增长 5.4%。1-9 月份，全国房地产开发投资 67706 亿元，同比下降 13.9%；其 中，住宅投资 52046 亿元，下降 12.9%。1-9 月份，房地产开发企业房屋 施工面积 648580 万平方米，同比下降 9.4%。其中，住宅施工面积 452165 万平方 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term supply of coal and coke increases while demand decreases, but both are at relatively high levels, and the fundamental contradiction is not prominent; market sentiment is easily disturbed by macro - factor changes, and prices should be treated with cautious optimism [3] Summary by Related Content Market Performance - Yesterday, the futures prices of coal and coke rose first and then fell, and the night - session prices weakened further, with relatively sharp fluctuations in coking coal. The spot market was generally stable with a slight upward trend, and some coke enterprises in certain regions have sent letters for the second round of coke price increases [2] Fundamental Analysis - The output of clean coal has been continuously rising. Last week, the daily average output of clean coal was 779,000 tons, an increase of 27,000 tons compared with the previous week. The mine end also had a slight inventory increase, but due to downstream inventory replenishment before the festival, the current mine - end inventory level is low. After the festival, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal has steadily recovered, with a current daily average of 155,000 tons. The change in Mongolian coal imports needs continuous attention [2] - Last week, the profitability of coke enterprises shrank, which supported their confidence in price - holding. Most coke enterprises maintained a normal production rhythm, with a capacity utilization rate of about 74%. However, the inventory pressure of downstream steel products still exists, especially the inventory of sheet metal has been continuously rising. Last week, some steel enterprises in certain regions issued notices simultaneously, indicating that due to the increase in raw material prices and the decrease in finished - product prices, steel mill profits were in the red. Last week, the daily average pig - iron output dropped to 2.4095 million tons, a decrease of 5,900 tons compared with the previous week; the overall profitability rate of steel mills was about 55% [3] Later Concerns - Pay attention to changes in the blast - furnace start - up of steel mills and the resumption of production in coal mines [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The finished product is expected to move in a volatile and consolidated manner, with its price center shifting downward and showing a weak trend [1][3] - The aluminum ingot price is expected to remain high in the short - term, with inventory slightly decreasing [1][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - Yunnan - Guizhou region's short - process construction steel enterprises' Spring Festival shutdown from mid - January is expected to affect 741,000 tons of construction steel output. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5, and most others will stop around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during shutdown [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of new commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] - The finished product continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand and pessimistic market sentiment, the price center keeps moving down. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing weak price support [3] Aluminum - The US government shutdown has lasted 20 days, delaying key economic data release and creating a data vacuum before the Fed's policy meeting [2] - The domestic alumina operating capacity is at a high level. Shanxi reduced production by 400,000 tons due to rainy - season supply issues, but there is still an oversupply. Some high - cost enterprises are in the red, but the industry as a whole still has a profit margin. The spot market is in a state of loose supply, and the alumina price is expected to remain weak [3] - Last week, the average operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises was 62.5%, a 1.4 - percentage - point decrease from the same period last year. Different sectors such as aluminum plate and strip, cable, and profile have different operating rate trends and face various challenges [3] - On October 20, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 625,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from last Thursday and 25,000 tons from last Monday [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For aluminum, the macro sentiment still provides support, and it is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the near future. Attention should be paid to the guidance of inventory consumption on the price direction [10] - For zinc, the short - term price has certain support following the overall non - ferrous metals at a high level, but the medium - and long - term supply increase still exerts upward pressure. Attention should be paid to the transmission from the mine end to the smelting end, and be vigilant against macro - risk events [13] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Colorful Weekly Market Review - Copper: The closing price of the futures main contract on October 17, 2025 was 84,390, down 1,520 (-1.77%) from October 10. The spot price was 84,835, down 1,840 (-2.12%) [7] - Aluminum: The closing price of the futures main contract on October 17, 2025 was 20,910, down 70 (-0.33%) from October 10. The spot price was 20,960, down 60 (-0.29%) [7] - Zinc: The closing price of the futures main contract on October 17, 2025 was 21,815, down 455 (-2.04%) from October 10. The spot price was 21,856, down 854 (-3.76%) [7] - Tin: The closing price of the futures main contract on October 17, 2025 was 280,750, down 5,600 (-1.96%) from October 10. The spot price was 281,250, down 7,000 (-2.43%) [7] - Nickel: The closing price of the futures main contract on October 17, 2025 was 121,160, down 1,020 (-0.83%) from October 10. The spot price was 122,780, down 1,080 (-0.87%) [7] 3.2 This Week's Non - Ferrous Market Forecast 3.2.1 Aluminum - Logic: Last week, the aluminum price remained high. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October and again in December. The shutdown of the US federal government has hindered the release of key macro - economic data. Domestically, the operating capacity of alumina is at a high level, and the supply surplus pressure still exists. As winter storage approaches, the spot procurement enthusiasm of some aluminum plants has increased, but the overall spot market is still in a state of loose supply. The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises was 62.5% last week, down 1.4 percentage points from the same period last year. As of October 20, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 625,000 tons, down 2,000 tons from last Thursday and 25,000 tons from last Monday [9] - Viewpoint: The macro sentiment still provides support, and it is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the near future. Attention should be paid to the guidance of inventory consumption on the price direction [10] - Later attention/market risks: Pay attention to the development of the geopolitical crisis, the implementation of macro - policies, the situation of supply increase, and the release of consumption [11] 3.2.2 Zinc - Logic: Last week, the zinc price回调 downward. The processing fee of domestic zinc concentrates continued to decline. The SMM Zn50 domestic weekly TC average price decreased by 100 yuan/metal ton to 3,400 yuan/metal ton, and the SMM imported zinc concentrate index increased by 0.25 US dollars/dry ton to 118.75 US dollars/dry ton. The galvanizing operating rate last week was 58.05%, up 11.21 percentage points from the previous week. As of October 20, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 165,300 tons, an increase of 2,200 tons from October 13 and 2,600 tons from October 16 [13] - Viewpoint: The short - term price has certain support following the overall non - ferrous metals at a high level, but the medium - and long - term supply increase still exerts upward pressure. Attention should be paid to the transmission from the mine end to the smelting end, and be vigilant against macro - risk events [13] - Later attention/market risks: Pay attention to the implementation of macro - policies, the release of mine - end production, and the release of consumption [12] 3.3 Variety Data 3.3.1 Aluminum - Bauxite: - Price: The price of domestic high - grade bauxite in Henan in the week of October 17 was 650 yuan/ton, unchanged from the week of October 10; the price of domestic low - grade bauxite in Henan was 580 yuan/ton, unchanged from the week of October 10; the average price of the imported bauxite index was 74.45 US dollars/ton, down 0.39 from the week of October 10 [17] - Arrival and departure volume: The arrival volume at ports in the week of October 17 was 3743,700 tons, up 878,500 tons from the week of October 10; the departure volume at ports was 406,390 tons, up 24,130 tons from the week of October 10 [20] - Alumina: - Price and cost - profit: The domestic price in Henan in the week of October 17 was 2,905 yuan/ton, down 45 from the week of October 10; the full cost was 2,851.5 yuan/ton, down 25.1 from the week of October 10; the profit in Shanxi was - 60.06 yuan/ton, down 32.72 from the week of October 10 [23] - Electrolytic aluminum: - Total cost: The total cost in the week of October 17 was 16,144.6 yuan/ton, down 68.1 from the week of October 10 [27] - Regional price difference: The price difference between Foshan and SMM A00 aluminum in the week of October 17 was - 110 yuan/ton, down 40 from the week of October 10 [27] - Operating rate: The operating rate of aluminum cables in the week of October 16 was 64, unchanged from the week of October 9; the operating rate of aluminum foil was 72.3, unchanged from the week of October 9; the operating rate of aluminum plates and strips was 68, unchanged from the week of October 9; the operating rate of aluminum profiles was 53.5, down 0.1 from the week of October 9; the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy was 58.4, up 0.4 from the week of October 9; the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy was 58.6, down 0.3 from the week of October 9 [29][30] - Inventory: The bonded area inventory in Shanghai in the week of October 16 was 60,300 tons, down 5,000 tons from the week of October 9; the total bonded area inventory was 80,300 tons, down 7,000 tons from the week of October 9; the social inventory in the week of October 20 was 625,000 tons, down 25,000 tons from the week of October 13; the weekly outbound volume of aluminum ingots in major consumption areas in the week of October 13 was 145,000 tons, unchanged from the week of September 29; the SHFE inventory in the week of October 17 was 122,028 tons, down 2,749 tons from the week of October 10; the LME inventory in the week of October 16 was 491,225 tons, down 17,600 tons from the week of October 9 [35][36] - Spot: - Basis: The basis for the current month in the week of October 17 was 65 yuan/ton, up 65 from the week of October 10; the basis for the main contract was 40 yuan/ton, up 40 from the week of October 10; the basis for the third - continuous contract was 25 yuan/ton, up 40 from the week of October 10 [41] - Monthly spread: The spread between the current month and the main contract in the week of October 17 was - 25 yuan/ton, down 25 from the week of October 10; the spread between the current month and the third - continuous contract was - 40 yuan/ton, down 25 from the week of October 10 [42] 3.3.2 Zinc - Zinc concentrate: - Price and processing fee: The price of domestic zinc concentrates in the week of October 17 was 16,924 yuan/metal ton, down 210 from the week of October 10; the domestic processing fee was 3,400 yuan/metal ton, down 100 from the week of October 10; the imported processing fee was 118.75 US dollars/dry ton, up 0.2 from the week of October 10 [49] - Production profit, import profit and loss, and inventory: The enterprise production profit in the week of October 17 was 4,024 yuan/metal ton, down 260 from the week of October 10; the import profit and loss was - 2,255.38 yuan/ton, down 177.47 from the week of October 10; the inventory of imported zinc concentrates at Lianyungang in the week of October 17 was 140,000 physical tons, unchanged from the week of October 10 [52] - Refined zinc: - Inventory: The social inventory of zinc ingots in SMM seven regions in the week of October 20 was 165,300 tons, up 2,200 tons from the week of October 13; the bonded area inventory of zinc ingots in the week of October 16 was 8,000 tons, unchanged from the week of October 9; the SHFE refined zinc inventory in the week of October 17 was 109,627 tons, up 2,677 tons from the week of October 10; the LME zinc inventory in the week of October 16 was 38,025 tons, up 75 tons from the week of October 9 [55] - Galvanized: - Output: The output in the week of October 16 was 336,490 tons, up 58,860 tons from the week of October 9 [58] - Operating rate: The operating rate in the week of October 16 was 58.05, up 11.22 from the week of October 9 [58] - Inventory: The raw material inventory in the week of October 16 was 13,910 tons, down 1,650 tons from the week of October 9; the finished product inventory was 366,800 tons, down 3,700 tons from the week of October 9 [58] - Zinc: - Basis: The basis for the current month of SMM 0 zinc ingots in the week of October 17 was 35 yuan/ton, down 45 from the week of October 10; the basis for the main contract was 35 yuan/ton, up 5 from the week of October 10; the basis for the third - continuous contract was - 55 yuan/ton, down 25 from the week of October 10 [61] - Monthly spread: The spread between the current month and the main contract in the week of October 17 was 0 yuan/ton, up 50 from the week of October 10; the spread between the current month and the third - continuous contract was - 90 yuan/ton, up 20 from the week of October 10 [65]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Steel Products**: Steel prices are expected to operate at a low level with short - term downward pressure. Attention should be paid to the narrowing of the spread between hot - rolled and rebar [9]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of iron ore will operate within a range, with the main contract of Dalian iron ore futures between 760 - 800 yuan/ton, corresponding to an external market price of approximately 103 - 107 US dollars/ton [10]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: In the short term, the supply of coking coal and coke increases while the demand decreases, but they are still at a relatively high level. The price should be treated with cautious optimism [11]. - **Ferroalloys**: The supply of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon remains loose, and the demand shows no obvious improvement. The alloy prices are expected to be under pressure and operate weakly [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Market Review - **Futures and Spot Prices**: From October 10 to October 17, 2025, the closing prices of most futures and spot varieties in the black industry chain changed. For example, the RB2601 contract of rebar decreased from 3103 to 3037 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.13%; the HC2601 contract of hot - rolled coil decreased from 3285 to 3204 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.47%. However, the J2601 contract of coke increased from 1666.5 to 1676 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.57% [7]. 3.2 This Week's Black Market Forecast 3.2.1 Steel Products - **Logic**: The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills decreased slightly, and the average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills increased. The steel products market oscillated and declined last week, and the downstream weakness improved limitedly. The Sino - US trade friction affected market sentiment, and important domestic meetings and Sino - US economic and trade consultations are worth noting [9]. - **Viewpoint**: Low - level operation, short - term downward pressure, and attention to the narrowing of the spread between hot - rolled and rebar [9]. 3.2.2 Iron Ore - **Logic**: The macro - level meeting is expected to focus on new - quality productivity and consumption. The supply of foreign mines decreased slightly, the arrival volume will return to the median level, the domestic demand decreased but remained high, the steel mill inventory decreased slightly, and the port inventory increased [10]. - **Viewpoint**: The price will operate within a range, with the main contract of Dalian iron ore futures between 760 - 800 yuan/ton, corresponding to an external market price of approximately 103 - 107 US dollars/ton [10]. 3.2.3 Coking Coal and Coke - **Logic**: The futures prices of coking coal and coke first declined and then rose last week, affected by Sino - US trade policies and anti - involution expectations. The spot market was stable and slightly strong, and some coke enterprises planned a second price increase. The coal mine output increased, the imported coal volume increased monthly, the coke enterprise profit contracted, and the steel mill profit was in deficit [11]. - **Viewpoint**: In the short term, the supply increases while the demand decreases, but they are still at a relatively high level. The price should be treated with cautious optimism [11]. 3.2.4 Ferroalloys - **Logic**: Overseas, the US government shutdown affected economic data and Fed policy decisions. Domestically, the demand improvement expectation was weak. The supply of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon was relatively loose, the demand decreased, the inventory increased, and the cost support was stable [12]. - **Viewpoint**: The alloy prices are expected to be under pressure and operate weakly. Attention should be paid to domestic macro - policies and the progress of Sino - US economic and trade consultations [12]. 3.3 Variety Data 3.3.1 Steel Products - **Rebar**: The output last week was 201.16 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.24 tons; the apparent demand was 219.75 tons, a week - on - week increase of 73.74 tons. The total inventory was 641.04 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 18.59 tons [14][21]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The output last week was 321.84 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.45 tons; the apparent demand was 315.55 tons, a week - on - week increase of 24.58 tons. The total inventory was 419.19 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.29 tons [24][29]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - **Port Inventory**: The total import ore port inventory (45 ports) last week was 14278.27 tons, a week - on - week increase of 253.77 tons [41]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: The inventory of 247 steel enterprises last week was 8982.73 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 63.46 tons [48]. - **Global Shipment**: The global total shipment last week was 3207.5 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 71.5 tons [54]. 3.3.3 Coking Coal and Coke - **Coke Inventory**: The total coke inventory (coke enterprises + steel mills + ports) last week was 891.85 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 17.84 tons [74]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: The total coking coal inventory (coke enterprises + steel mills + coal mines + ports + coal washing plants) last week was 2599.21 tons, a week - on - week increase of 87.92 tons [82]. 3.3.4 Ferroalloys - **Spot Price**: The price of semi - carbonate manganese ore in Tianjin Port last week was 33.5 yuan/dry ton degree, a week - on - week decrease of 0.3 yuan [106]. - **Output**: The silicon - manganese output of 187 independent enterprises last week was 208810 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4585 tons [110]. - **Demand**: The demand for silicon - manganese of five major steel types last week was 121113 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 960 tons [114]. - **Inventory**: The silicon - manganese inventory of 63 independent enterprises on October 17 was 262500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20000 tons [117].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **成材**: The price of finished products is expected to move in a range-bound consolidation. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with a pessimistic market sentiment, leading to a continuous downward shift in the price center. The winter storage this year is sluggish, providing limited support to prices. Attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [4]. - **铝锭**: The price of aluminum ingots is expected to remain high in the short - term and fluctuate. The short - term fundamentals are stable, but the market sentiment is affected by repeated overseas macro - interference events. Attention should be paid to macro - expectations, geopolitical crises, mine resumption, and consumption release [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **成材** - **Production Disruption**: In the Yungui region, short - process construction steel enterprises will stop production for maintenance from mid - January, with a resumption around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting 74.1 million tons of construction steel production. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5th, and most others will stop around mid - January, with a daily production impact of about 16,200 tons [3][4]. - **Real Estate Transaction**: From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous week and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [4]. - **Market Performance**: The price of finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, reaching a new low. The market is in a pattern of weak supply and demand, with pessimistic sentiment and low winter storage, resulting in a downward - shifting price center [4]. **铝锭** - **Macro Environment**: The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in the October meeting and again in December. The U.S. federal government shutdown has hindered the release of key macro - economic data, increasing market uncertainty about the U.S. economy [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: In October, the commissioning and resumption of replacement and technological transformation projects are expected to increase aluminum ingot production. Domestic alumina production capacity is at a high level, with a 400,000 - ton reduction in Shanxi due to the rainy season, but the supply surplus pressure remains. The overall alumina industry still has a profit, and the spot market is in a state of loose supply. The average开工率 of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises is 62.5%, a 1.4 - percentage - point decrease from the same period last year, and different sub - industries face various challenges [4]. - **Inventory**: On October 16, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 627,000 tons, a decrease of 23,000 tons from Monday and 22,000 tons from last Thursday [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel price is running at a low level, with short - term downward pressure. Attention should be paid to the narrowing of the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China will be held from October 20th to 23rd in Beijing, mainly to study the suggestions for formulating the 15th Five - Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development and analyze the current economic situation and deploy the economic work for the second half of the year [2] - On October 18th, He Lifeng held a video call with the US Treasury Secretary and Trade Representative, and both sides agreed to hold a new round of China - US economic and trade consultations as soon as possible [2] Production Data - Last week, 13 provincial steel mills had production line maintenance and resumption. There were 3 maintenance lines, a decrease of 6 compared with the previous week, and 8 resumption lines, an increase of 1 compared with the previous week. The production affected by maintenance was 215,300 tons last week and is expected to be 63,800 tons this week [2] - The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills last week was 90.33%, a decrease of 0.22 percentage points from the previous week and an increase of 2.34 percentage points year - on - year. The daily average hot metal output was 2.4095 million tons, a decrease of 5,900 tons from the previous week and an increase of 65,900 tons year - on - year [2] - The average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills nationwide last week was 53.2%, an increase of 2.13 percentage points from the previous week and an increase of 1.32 percentage points year - on - year. The average operating rate was 68.85%, an increase of 1.79 percentage points from the previous week and a decrease of 0.73 percentage points year - on - year [2] Price and Market Analysis - The finished steel prices fluctuated and declined last week, hitting new lows. Rebar was close to 3,000, and hot - rolled coil once fell below 3,200. After the holiday, the fundamentals of steel changed little, and the weak downstream situation improved limitedly. The weekly fundamentals were neutral to weak. Sino - US trade frictions affected market sentiment and caused the steel price to decline. Attention should be paid to Sino - US economic and trade consultations and domestic important meetings [2]