Group 1: Report Investment Rating - The report suggests short - term observation for both the finished product and raw material sectors [3] Group 2: Core View - Macro - level positive news has continuously emerged, significantly boosting market sentiment, while the industry's fundamentals are relatively average, especially with little change in downstream demand [3] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Data Cost and Profit - On July 21, the average cost of 76 independent electric arc furnace construction steel mills was 3,317 yuan/ton, a 24 - yuan/ton increase compared to last Friday; the average profit was - 69 yuan/ton, and the off - peak electricity profit was 34 yuan/ton, a 15 - yuan/ton increase compared to last Friday [3] Steel Price - On July 21, the ex - factory tax - included price of ordinary billet resources in Qian'an, Tangshan increased by 20, reaching 3,060 yuan/ton [3] Shipbuilding Data - From January to June 2025, China's shipbuilding completion volume was 24.13 million deadweight tons, a 3.5% year - on - year decrease; the new order volume was 44.33 million deadweight tons, an 18.2% year - on - year decrease; as of the end of June, the order backlog was 234.54 million deadweight tons, a 36.7% year - on - year increase [3] Market Performance - Over the weekend, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced that it would introduce a growth - stabilizing plan, and the China Iron and Steel Association stated that it would study and establish a new capacity governance mechanism. The black series started to rise on Friday night and continued the upward trend yesterday. Both rebar and hot - rolled coils reached new highs since the rebound, with an increase in trading volume and open interest [3]

晨报 铁矿石 铁矿石： "反内卷"政策驱动加强 矿价短期偏强运行 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 供应方面：短期供给端支撑增强，近期外矿发运仍处于季节性回落周期，其中澳洲 BHP、 FMG 矿山财年冲量后在 7 月份进入检修期，巴西发运保持相对中位偏高水平；短期到港量保持 高位持续回落，即近端供给压力将保持相对减弱，现实端供给压力减弱，但近期外盘价格回升 至 100 美金/吨，若价格持续高位或刺激非主流矿供应增加。 原材料：程 鹏 需求方面：国内日均铁水量止降回升，本期日均铁水产量 242.44（环比+2.63），当前钢 厂盈利率水平较高且高炉利润水平相对可观，叠加短流程全面深度亏损、铁水性价比仍较高， 预计短期铁矿石需求仍保持韧性，国内高需求对价格形成 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the overall non - ferrous metals, macro uncertainties remain high. Domestic policies boost the entire non - ferrous metals market in the short term, and prices are expected to run strongly in the short term. Follow - up attention should be paid to the development of news and downstream off - season conditions [9][10] - For aluminum, the short - term domestic macro situation significantly boosts the alumina price. Although the overall supply of alumina is relatively loose, the spot price in the southwest region is supported. The alumina spot price is expected to gradually peak, and attention should be paid to subsequent arrivals [9] - For zinc, domestic policies boost short - term prices, but medium - to - long - term supply increases still put pressure on the upper limit. Attention should be paid to the development of news [12][13] - For tin, it shows a short - term oscillatory and strong trend, but the downward pressure increases in the medium term [15] Summary by Directory 01 Non - ferrous Weekly Market Review - **Futures and Spot Prices**: From July 11 to July 18, 2025, the closing prices of copper, aluminum, zinc, nickel futures main contracts decreased, with weekly declines of 0.03%, 0.89%, 0.38%, and 0.73% respectively; the tin futures main contract price increased by 0.23%. Spot prices of copper, zinc, tin, and nickel decreased, with weekly declines of 0.04%, 0.34%, 0.28%, and 0.60% respectively; the aluminum spot price remained unchanged [7] 02 This Week's Non - ferrous Market Forecast Aluminum - **Logic**: Overseas tariff policies and personnel change rumors make risk assets cautious, while domestic "anti - involution" policies drive up industrial metals. Domestically, short - term macro factors boost alumina prices. Demand in the southwest region increases due to upcoming electrolytic aluminum capacity replacement projects, and supply may decrease due to upcoming maintenance. Nationally, alumina supply is relatively loose, and the increase in electrolytic aluminum plant inventories may put pressure on the alumina spot price [9] - **Viewpoint**: Prices are expected to run strongly in the short term, and follow - up attention should be paid to news and downstream off - season conditions [10] - **Follow - up Concerns**: Geopolitical crisis development, macro policy implementation, supply increase, and consumption release [11] Zinc - **Logic**: Domestic zinc ore processing fees remain stable, and imported zinc ore processing fees increase. The galvanizing start - up rate rises, and zinc ingot inventories increase. The die - casting zinc alloy start - up rate decreases, raw material inventories slightly increase, and finished product inventories decrease. Domestic inventories decrease overall [12] - **Viewpoint**: Domestic policies boost short - term prices, but medium - to - long - term supply increases put pressure on the upper limit. Attention should be paid to the development of news [13] - **Follow - up Concerns**: Macro policy implementation, mine production release, and consumption release [14] Tin - **Logic**: The resumption of production in Myanmar is slow, resulting in a shortage of raw materials for domestic smelters. Downstream demand is in the off - season, and orders in various sectors decline. Tin prices are supported at the bottom but face pressure at the top. An increase in supply may put pressure on prices [15] - **Viewpoint**: Short - term oscillatory and strong, with increasing downward pressure in the medium term [15] - **Follow - up Concerns**: Resumption of production in Congo (Kinshasa), Myanmar, and Malaysia; trade policies of various countries [15] 03 Variety Data Aluminum - **Bauxite**: Domestic high - grade bauxite prices in Henan remain unchanged week - on - week; domestic low - grade bauxite prices in Henan remain unchanged week - on - week; imported bauxite average prices decrease week - on - week. The port arrival volume increases week - on - week, and the departure volume decreases week - on - week [19][23] - **Alumina**: Domestic prices in Henan increase week - on - week, the full cost decreases week - on - week, and the profit in Shanxi increases week - on - week [26] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The total cost increases week - on - week, and the regional price difference decreases week - on - week. The start - up rates of some products change, and the inventory of electrolytic aluminum in different regions and forms shows different trends [28][32][38] - **Spot and Basis**: The basis of SMM A00 aluminum and SMM A00 aluminum in Foshan increases week - on - week, and the monthly spread of Shanghai aluminum shows different changes [44][47][48] Zinc - **Zinc Concentrate**: Domestic zinc concentrate prices decrease week - on - week, domestic zinc concentrate processing fees remain unchanged week - on - week, and imported zinc concentrate processing fees increase week - on - week. Enterprise production profits decrease week - on - week, import losses decrease week - on - week, and imported zinc concentrate inventories remain unchanged week - on - week [55][58] - **Refined Zinc**: Social inventories of zinc ingots increase week - on - week, bonded area inventories remain unchanged week - on - week, and inventories in the Shanghai Futures Exchange and LME increase week - on - week [61] - **Galvanizing**: Production decreases week - on - week, the start - up rate increases week - on - week, raw material inventories increase week - on - week, and finished product inventories increase week - on - week [64] - **Basis and Monthly Spread**: The basis of SMM 0 zinc ingot decreases week - on - week, and the monthly spread of Shanghai zinc increases week - on - week [67][71] Tin - **Refined Tin**: The combined output of Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces increases week - on - week, and the combined start - up rate also increases week - on - week [75] - **Tin Ingot Inventory**: SHFE tin ingot inventories and Chinese regional social inventories of tin ingots increase week - on - week [78] - **Tin Concentrate Processing Fees**: Processing fees in different regions remain unchanged week - on - week [80] - **Import Profit and Loss and Spot Price**: The import profit and loss level of tin ore increases week - on - week, and the average spot prices of tin concentrates in different regions decrease week - on - week [81][86]

【华宝期货】黑色产业链周报 华宝期货 2025.7.21 目录 01 周度行情回顾 02 本周黑色行情预判 03 品种数据（成材、铁矿石、煤焦） 01 周度行情回顾 | 品种 | | | 期货主力合约收盘价格 | | | 现货价格 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2025.7.18 | 2025.7.11 | 价格变动 | 涨跌幅 | | 2025.7.18 | 2025.7.11 | | 涨跌幅 | | 螺纹钢 | RB2510 | 3147 | 3133 | 14 | 0.45% | HRB400E: Φ20:汇总价格:上海 | 3250 | 3220 | 30 | 0.93% | | 热轧卷板 | HC2510 | 3321 | 3273 | 48 | 1.47% | Q235B: 5.75*1500*C: 市场价: 上海 | 3340 | 3300 | 40 | 1.21% | | 铁矿石 | 60521 | 785 | 764 | 21 | 2.75% | 日照港P ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The report suggests that with the continuous recovery of external demand, rising risk appetite, and the strengthening of short - term domestic macro - expectations and industrial policy drivers, the market focus may shift to trading a strong reality and strong expectations. With reduced foreign ore shipments, declining arrivals at ports leading to inventory depletion, and relatively high demand, the short - term iron ore futures prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. The i2509 contract price is expected to be in the range of 790 yuan/ton - 835 yuan/ton, and the outer - disk FE08 contract price is expected to be in the range of 100.5 - 106 US dollars/ton. Later, attention should be paid to the incremental policies of the Politburo meeting [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Logic - Last week, the market mainly traded the grand narrative logic of "anti - involution" to break low prices, leading to a collective increase in the prices of the black series. Despite the off - season for terminal demand, the inventory of finished products did not accumulate. The significant increase in finished product prices led to an expansion of long - process steel mill profits, and the loss situation of short - process steel mills improved but remained in full - scale losses. The expectation of an annual surplus of iron ore was revised, with the supply - side growth rate falling short of expectations, high domestic demand, and relatively low short - term accumulation pressure on port inventories. Iron ore is in a pattern of strong reality and strong expectations [2]. Supply - Recently, foreign ore shipments have entered a periodic decline cycle. Australian BHP and FMG mines entered the maintenance period in early July after the fiscal - year volume rush, while Brazilian shipments remained at a relatively medium - high level. The short - term arrival volume is expected to decline from a high level, reducing the near - end supply pressure. However, the recent rebound of the outer - disk price to 100 US dollars/ton may stimulate an increase in non - mainstream ore supply if the price remains high [2]. Demand - The daily average molten iron output in China has stopped falling and rebounded, with the current daily average molten iron output at 242.44 (a month - on - month increase of 2.63). With a high profitability rate of steel mills and considerable blast furnace profits, combined with the full - scale deep losses of short - process steel mills and the high cost - effectiveness of molten iron, the short - term demand for iron ore is expected to remain resilient, and high domestic demand strongly supports the price [2]. Inventory - The daily consumption of imported ore at the steel mill end has increased, and the inventory level has continued to decline. With the continuous rise in iron ore prices, the expectation of steel mills to replenish inventory is strong. The arrival volume has declined from a high level, and the port clearance volume has rebounded in tandem with the molten iron output. The port inventory has slightly increased this period, and the inventory is expected to remain stable or decline slightly later [2]. Price - The price is expected to fluctuate strongly. The price range of the i2509 contract is 790 yuan/ton - 835 yuan/ton, and the price range of the outer - disk FE08 contract is 100.5 - 106 US dollars/ton [2].

从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 晨报 铝锭 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：政策提振工业金属 铝库存走势反复 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 观点：预计价格短期偏强运行，关注宏观情绪和下游开工。 后期关注/风险因素：关注宏观预期变动、地缘政治危机发展、矿端复 产情况、消费释放情况。 重要声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开的资料，我公司对信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证，也不保证包含的信 息和建议不会发生变更，我们已力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中观点、结论和建议仅供参考，投资者据此 做出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关。 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 以伊冲突 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The report suggests short - term waiting and considering short - selling after a price increase [1][2][3] Group 3: Summary According to Related Information Macro Policy - The Party Group of the Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development emphasizes putting urban renewal in a more prominent position, accelerating the construction of a new real - estate development model, and promoting the transformation of urban villages and dilapidated buildings [2] Supply - side Information - Last week, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.46%, a 0.31 - percentage - point increase from the previous week; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.89%, a 0.99 - percentage - point increase; the daily average pig iron output was 2.4244 million tons, a 26,300 - ton increase [2] - The average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills in the country was 51.79%, a 1.43 - percentage - point increase from the previous week and a 6.81 - percentage - point increase year - on - year; the operating rate was 65.08%, a 1.49 - percentage - point increase [2] - Under the anti - involution policy, the market is positive about industries with over - supply, and the sentiment in the steel market is also positive. The output of the five major steel products decreased slightly last week, but steel mills' profits increased, and the operating rate and daily average pig iron output were high [2] Demand - side Information - The actual demand drags down the upward movement of steel prices and even exerts downward pressure. The real - estate market remains sluggish and is difficult to improve in the short term, and the downstream of consumer steel products shows signs of slowing growth [2] Later Concerns - Macro policies, supply - side production cuts, and downstream demand conditions should be focused on [3]

晨报 煤焦 煤焦：稳增长预期升温 盘面震荡偏强运行 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 观点：近期在市场看涨氛围烘托下，叠加供需压力稍有缓解，期现货 实现共振走强，短期盘面或维持震荡偏强运行。 后期关注/风险因素：关注钢厂高炉开工变化、煤矿复产情况。 重要声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开的资料，我公司对信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证，也不保证包含的信 息和建议不会发生变更，我们已力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中观点、结论和建议仅供参考，投资者据此 做出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关。 地址：北京市海淀区海淀大街 8 号 19 层 ☎ 400-700-6700 www.zgfcc.com 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - International macro uncertainty weakens and risk preference rises, combined with a short - term increase in domestic macro expectations. The market trading focus may gradually shift to "strong reality + strong expectation". With the decrease in foreign ore shipments and the high - level decline of arrivals leading to inventory depletion, and demand remaining at a relatively high level, it is expected that the short - term iron ore futures price will fluctuate within a range with a strong upward trend. Later, attention should be paid to the incremental policies of the Politburo meeting [2] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Logic - The market has gradually accepted the Trump TACO deal, and the marginal impact of Sino - US tariffs has weakened. With the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, the market risk preference becomes positive, which boosts the valuation of commodities. In China, monetary and fiscal policies are taking effect in advance, with existing policies providing support and strong expectations for incremental policies. The macro - environment has a positive impact on iron ore prices, and short - term macro expectations dominate price movements, combined with a reversal of fundamental expectations [2] Supply - Recent foreign ore shipments have entered a phased decline cycle. Australian BHP and FMG mines entered the maintenance period in early July after the fiscal - year volume rush, while Brazilian shipments remained at a relatively medium - to - high level. Short - term arrivals are expected to decline from the high level, reducing the near - end supply pressure. However, the recent rebound of the overseas price to $100/ton may stimulate an increase in non - mainstream ore supply if the price remains high [2] Demand - China's daily average hot metal production has stopped falling and rebounded, with the current daily average hot metal output at 242.44 (a month - on - month increase of 2.63). The current profitability rate of steel mills is relatively high, and the blast furnace profit is considerable. Coupled with the deep losses of the short - process steelmaking and the high cost - effectiveness of hot metal, the short - term demand for iron ore is expected to remain resilient, and the high domestic demand strongly supports the price [2] Inventory - Steel mills' daily consumption of imported ore has increased, and the inventory level has continued to decline. With the continuous rise of iron ore prices recently, the expectation of steel mills to replenish inventory is strong. Arrivals have declined from the high level, while the port clearance volume and hot metal output have increased simultaneously. The port inventory has slightly increased this period, and it is expected that the inventory will generally remain stable or decline slightly later [2] Price - The price will fluctuate with a strong upward trend [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of rebar and hot - rolled coils in the steel products sector are differentiated, with the overall market in consolidation. The market shows a slightly strong trend due to optimistic sentiment under anti - involution, but the actual downstream situation remains sluggish with a low probability of short - term reversal. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and try short positions on rallies [2]. - For raw materials, the view is to wait and see in the short term or try short positions on rebounds [2]. 3) Summary by Related Content Steel Products - Production: According to Steel Union's weekly data, rebar production decreased by 76,000 tons to 2.0906 million tons, hot - rolled coil production decreased by 20,000 tons to 3.2114 million tons, and the total production of five major steel products decreased by 45,300 tons to 8.6819 million tons [2]. - Inventory: Rebar total inventory increased by 28,900 tons to 5.4326 million tons, hot - rolled coil total inventory decreased by 26,500 tons to 3.4291 million tons, and the total inventory of five major steel products decreased by 19,200 tons to 13.3766 million tons [2]. - Apparent Demand: Rebar apparent demand decreased by 153,300 tons to 2.0617 million tons, hot - rolled coil apparent demand increased by 12,800 tons to 3.2379 million tons, and the apparent demand of five major steel products decreased by 29,600 tons to 8.7011 million tons [2]. - Market Performance: Steel products rebounded slightly yesterday. The fundamentals of rebar and hot - rolled coils are different. Rebar's apparent demand decreased significantly and inventory started to accumulate, while hot - rolled coils' inventory decreased slightly and apparent demand increased slightly, resulting in hot - rolled coils performing stronger than rebar [2].