煤焦：供应逐步增加 盘面弱势震荡 晨报 煤焦 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 地址：北京市海淀区海淀大街 8 号 19 层 ☎ 400-700-6700 www.zgfcc.com 成文时间： 2026 年 1 月 20 日 逻辑：本周煤焦期价延续震荡偏弱走势运行；现货市场兑现期市上涨 预期，近日国内低硫主焦上涨 110 元/吨，蒙煤原煤累计上涨 112 元/吨； 多地焦企计划调涨焦价，但尚在博弈过程中。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 从基本面来看，煤整体供应较为旺盛。开年之后煤矿迎来陆续复产， 上周炼焦原煤、精 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests that the lithium carbonate market will be in a state of shock consolidation, with a focus on marginal changes in cost and supply - demand [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - Yesterday, the main contract of lithium carbonate closed at 147,260 yuan/ton, trading volume decreased to 329,000 lots, and open interest slightly decreased to 411,000 lots. The net short position of the main funds continued, and the warehouse receipts increased slightly by 240 tons to 27,698 tons. The average price of SMM electric carbon in the spot market was 151,000 yuan/ton. Upstream suppliers' willingness to sell scattered orders decreased, with some lithium salt plants showing reluctance to sell. Downstream material manufacturers mostly maintained the rhythm of on - demand procurement, and some enterprises remained cautiously wait - and - see. There is an increase in domestic regulatory uncertainty, and short - term sharp fluctuations should be watched out for [2]. Fundamental Analysis Supply - Last week, the raw material price increased by more than 17% month - on - month, strengthening the cost support. The SMM total weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate was 52.7% (+0.98%), with the operating rates of spodumene and salt lakes increasing slightly month - on - month, and those of lepidolite and recycling decreasing slightly. The SMM total output was 22,605 tons (+70 tons), and the supply was stabilizing at a high level [3]. Demand - There was a significant structural differentiation in demand. Last week, the production of SMM lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials decreased slightly month - on - month, and the inventory was destocked. The production of SMM power cells decreased slightly. As of January 11, the penetration rate of new - energy vehicle sales decreased month - on - month, while the production schedule of energy - storage cells increased slightly to support the demand [3]. Inventory - Last week, the SMM sample weekly inventory was destocked again, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.24% (-263 tons). The total inventory days remained at 28 days, the upstream inventory days increased to 5 days, and the downstream inventory days slightly decreased to 13.8 days, showing a significant inventory structure differentiation [3]. Macroeconomic Policy Demand - side - In 2026, multiple incentives such as automobile trade - in subsidies, Fed rate cuts, and battery export tax - rebate policies will stimulate terminal consumption and improve macro - liquidity [4]. Supply - side - On January 15, the National Development and Reform Commission proposed to introduce management measures for the comprehensive utilization of new - energy vehicle power batteries, which will raise the recycling threshold and eliminate backward production capacity, optimizing the domestic lithium carbonate supply structure in the long term and raising the cost support center [4]. Industry Planning - The Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Plan, the key points of the "14th Five - Year Plan" for energy storage, and a series of deployments from the Central Economic Work Conference form a synergistic positive effect, supporting the long - term balance of supply and demand [4]. Macroeconomic Environment - The central bank's structural interest - rate cuts indirectly strengthen the long - term macro - positive atmosphere [4].

Group 1 - The investment rating of the report is not mentioned [1][2][3] Group 2 - The core view of the report is that after the new year, the productivity of coal, coke and steel enterprises has increased, and the upstream's confidence in price support is supported by the downstream's inventory replenishment of raw materials before the festival. The short - term price increase of the futures market is weak, and cautious operation is recommended [3] Group 3 - **Market performance**: Last week, the futures prices of coal and coke fluctuated weakly, while the spot market was generally strong. Domestic low - sulfur coking coal rose by 110 yuan/ton, and Mongolian raw coal rose by 112 yuan/ton in total. After individual coking plants in Inner Mongolia raised coke prices last week, coking enterprises in Hebei and Shanxi issued price increase letters, planning to implement them this week [2] - **Fundamentals** - **Supply**: After the new year, coal mines have resumed production one after another. Last week, the output of coking raw coal and clean coal increased to 1.978 million tons and 768,000 tons respectively. The raw coal inventory at the mine end continued to increase, while the clean coal inventory further decreased. The daily customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port last week was 195,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 31,200 tons and a year - on - year increase of 48,800 tons. The port inventory remained at a relatively high level [3] - **Demand**: The profitability rate of steel mills has recovered to about 40%. The blast furnace operating rate decreased slightly last week due to maintenance. The daily average pig iron output was 2.2801 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 14,900 tons and a year - on - year increase of 35,300 tons. Steel mills continued to replenish raw material inventories, and the available days of in - plant inventory increased steadily [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoint - The report predicts that the price of lithium carbonate will stabilize in a volatile manner, and investors should focus on marginal changes in cost, supply, and demand [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - Last week, the main contract of lithium carbonate showed a volatile downward trend, hitting the daily limit of 146,200 yuan/ton multiple times, with an intraday decline of about 9%. Trading volume increased to 592,000 lots, and open interest slightly decreased to 416,000 lots. The net short position of the main force in the capital market continued, and the long - short ratio decreased by 3.8% month - on - month. Market sentiment was cautious, and the number of warehouse receipts increased slightly to 27,500 lots. The SMM average price of electric carbon was 158,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the main contract was 11,800 yuan/ton [3] - In the spot market, the upstream's reluctance to sell increased, with a low willingness to sell scattered orders, and some manufacturers suspended quotations and actively stockpiled. The downstream's purchasing willingness increased due to lower prices and rigid demand. Overall market inquiries and traders' willingness to sell both increased [3] Fundamental Analysis Supply - Last week, raw material prices increased by more than 17% month - on - month, strengthening cost support. The total weekly operating rate of SMM lithium carbonate was 52.7% (+0.98%). The operating rates of spodumene and salt lakes increased slightly, while those of lithium mica and recycling decreased slightly. The total output was 22,605 tons (+70 tons), and the supply stabilized at a high level [4] Demand - There was significant structural differentiation in demand. Last week, the output of SMM lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials decreased slightly, and inventory was destocked. The output of SMM power cells decreased slightly. As of January 11, the penetration rate of new - energy vehicle sales decreased month - on - month, and the production schedule of energy - storage cells increased slightly to support demand [4] Inventory - Last week, the weekly inventory of SMM samples was destocked again, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.24% (-263 tons). The total inventory days remained at 28 days. The upstream inventory days increased to 5 days, and the downstream inventory days decreased slightly to 13.8 days, showing significant inventory structure differentiation [4] Macroeconomic Policy - On the demand side, in 2026, multiple incentives such as car trade - in subsidies, Fed rate cuts, and battery export tax - rebate policies will stimulate terminal consumption and improve macro - liquidity. On the supply side, on January 15, the National Development and Reform Commission proposed to introduce management measures for the comprehensive utilization of new - energy vehicle power batteries, which will improve recycling thresholds and eliminate backward production capacity, optimizing the domestic lithium carbonate supply structure and raising the cost support center in the long term [5] - Industrial planning, such as the Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Plan and the "15th Five - Year Plan" for energy storage, along with a series of deployments from the Central Economic Work Conference, will form a coordinated positive impact, supporting long - term supply - demand balance. The central bank's structural interest - rate cuts will indirectly strengthen the long - term macro - positive atmosphere [5]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report predicts that the material will experience low - level consolidation [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content - **Macro - Policy Background**: Premier Li Qiang chaired a State Council executive meeting to discuss measures to boost consumption, including improving long - term mechanisms, formulating the "15th Five - Year" consumption expansion plan, and the urban and rural residents' income increase plan [3]. - **Steel Mill Operation Data**: Last week, the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 85.48%, a decrease of 0.56 percentage points from the previous week; the steel mill profitability rate was 39.83%, an increase of 2.17 percentage points from the previous week; the daily average pig iron output was 2.2801 million tons, a decrease of 14,900 tons from the previous week. The average capacity utilization rate of 94 independent electric arc furnace steel mills nationwide was 57.99%, an increase of 1.09 percentage points from the previous week and 13.86 percentage points from the same period last year [3]. - **Market Performance**: The material fluctuated sideways last week with a small range. The fundamentals were stable with obvious off - season characteristics. With the temperature drop in many domestic areas this week, the terminal demand for building materials further weakened, and the macro - market had limited impact on prices [3]. - **Later Concerns**: The report suggests paying attention to macro - policies and downstream demand [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The成材 is expected to move in a range-bound consolidation [3] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to remain high in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro sentiment and mine - end news [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Content For成材 - Yunnan - Guizhou region's short - process construction steel producers will stop production for maintenance from mid - to late January and resume around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting 741,000 tons of construction steel output [2] - In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5th, and most others will stop around mid - January, with daily output affected by about 16,200 tons [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] - The成材 continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and winter storage is sluggish, so the price center continues to move down [3] For Aluminum - Last week, the price of Shanghai Aluminum pulled back from a high. The market believes that the Fed will not cut interest rates in January, while in China, there is still strong macro - positive sentiment [2] - The supply of domestic bauxite was stable last week. The supply shortage in the north is expected to gradually ease, and the inventory of alumina plants increased by 703,600 tons. The price of domestic ore is expected to decline [3] - The operating rates of domestic aluminum downstream processing sectors were divided last week, with a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points to 60.2%. High aluminum prices are suppressing downstream consumption, and the operating rate is expected to be weak in the short term [3] - On January 19, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in major domestic consumption areas was 749,000 tons, an increase of 19,000 tons from last Monday [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The central bank's positive statements in the meeting boosted market sentiment. After the new year, the production of coal, coking, and steel enterprises has recovered. The downstream's pre - holiday replenishment of raw materials supports the upstream's confidence in maintaining prices. The short - term price of the futures market fluctuates sharply, so cautious operation is recommended [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Content Market Performance - Yesterday, the coal and coking futures prices oscillated with high volatility. On the spot market, the quoted price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal at the port increased by over 100 yuan/ton. Some coking plants in Inner Mongolia started to raise the coke price, with the price of dry - quenched coke increased by 55 yuan/ton, but the mainstream coking enterprises have not issued official letters yet. On January 16, coking coal options were officially listed on the Dalian Commodity Exchange [2] Fundamental Analysis - After the new year, coal mines have gradually resumed production. This week, the production of coking raw coal and clean coal increased to 1.978 million tons and 768,000 tons respectively (due to the increase in the statistical sample this week). The raw coal inventory at mines continued to increase, while the clean coal inventory further decreased. This is mainly because downstream coking and steel enterprises have also resumed production and maintained a certain purchasing rhythm for raw materials. Last week, the daily customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port was 164,600 tons, 37,400 tons higher than the same period last year, and the port inventory remained at a relatively high level. This week, the blast furnace operating rate decreased slightly. The daily average pig iron output was 2.2801 million tons, a decrease of 14,900 tons compared with last week and an increase of 35,300 tons compared with last year. This week, the purchasing rhythm of steel mills has slowed down [3]

晨报 碳酸锂 成文时间： 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:昨日碳酸锂主力合约震荡收至 163320 元/吨，市场交投活跃度有 所下降，成交缩量至 43.1 万手、持仓微减至 44.4 万手。资金面主力净空延 续，多空比环比微增，市场情绪偏向谨慎，仓单环比微增至 2.72 万手。现 货端，SMM 电碳均价 159000 元/吨，主力合约基差-4320 元/吨。市场成交 来看，上游散单出货意愿低，部分企业仍以交付长协订单为主，厂家报价 偏高；下游材料厂长协谈判中散单采购占比提升，市场询价与成交活跃度 有所增强。 基本面来看，供应端，上周原料价格环比涨幅超 9%，强化成本支撑。 本周 SMM 碳酸锂总周度开工率 52.7%（+0.98%），锂辉石、盐湖开工率环 比微增，锂云母、回收端开工率环比微降；SMM 总产量 22605 吨（+70 吨）， 供应量高位趋稳。需求端结构性分化显著。本周 SMM 铁锂、三元产量环比 微降，且库存去化；上周 SMM 动力电芯产量微降，截至 1 月 11 日，SMM 新能源车销量渗透率环比下降，储能电芯排产小幅增长托底需求。库存方 面，本周 SMM 样本周度库存再度去化，环比- ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views -成材预计震荡整理运行，价格重心下移且偏弱运行，市场情绪悲观，冬储低迷对价格支撑不强 [2][4] -铝锭预计价格短期高位运行，宏观推动暂缓、基本面支撑偏弱，但资金看涨情绪未冷却，需关注宏观情绪和矿端消息 [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 成材 -云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节停产检修时间多在1月中下旬，复产预计在正月十一至十六，停产预计影响总产量74.1万吨；安徽省6家短流程钢厂，1家1月5日停产，多数1月中旬左右停产，个别1月20日后停产，停产日度影响产量1.62万吨左右 [3][4] - 2024年12月30日 - 2025年1月5日，10个重点城市新建商品房成交面积总计223.4万平方米，环比降40.3%，同比增43.2% [4] -成材昨日震荡下行创近期新低，供需双弱格局下市场情绪悲观，价格重心下移，冬储低迷对价格支撑不强 [4] - 观点为震荡整理运行，后期关注宏观政策和下游需求情况 [4] 铝锭 -宏观上美国就业市场稳健，市场预计美联储1月27 - 28日会议维持利率不变，特朗普决定暂不对关键矿物征关税，资金对白银、铜、铝等看多情绪降温 [3] -北方铝土矿复产初期生产节奏慢，国产矿石供应偏紧格局有望逐步缓解，两会后生产节奏预计加快；南方国产矿生产无明显变动；截至本周四氧化铝厂铝土矿库存环比增加70.36万吨；氧化铝价格走弱，氧化铝厂对铝土矿溢价采购意愿低，预计国产矿价格仍有下行空间 [4] -本周国内铝下游加工各版块龙头企业开工率分化，受春节临近成品备库需求影响，开工率环比微升0.2个百分点至60.2%，高位铝价抑制下游消费与行业开工回升 [4] - 1月12日国内主流消费地电解铝锭库存73万吨，较上周一同比上涨4.6万吨 [4] - 观点为预计价格短期高位运行，关注宏观预期变动、地缘政治危机发展、矿端复产情况、消费释放情况 [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The price of finished products is expected to fluctuate and consolidate, with its center of gravity moving downward and a weak operation [1][3] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to remain high in the short - term, but there are risks at high prices [1][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises are expected to affect a total output of 741,000 tons of construction steel during the Spring Festival shutdown from mid - January to around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month [2] - Six short - process steel mills in Anhui: one started to shut down on January 5, most will shut down around mid - January, and some individual mills will shut down after January 20, with a daily impact on production of about 16,200 tons [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] - The price of finished products continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low recently. In the pattern of weak supply and demand and pessimistic market sentiment, the price center has been moving down. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing weak support for prices [3] Aluminum - As of January 14, the SMM imported bauxite index was reported at $67.33/ton, a decrease of $0.09/ton from the previous trading day. The SMM Guinea FOB average price and CIF average price were flat compared with the previous trading day [3] - The tight supply of domestic bauxite has eased, and alumina plants' bauxite inventories have continued to accumulate. With the pressure on the alumina spot price, the intended transaction price of domestic bauxite for alumina plants has continued to decline. Imported bauxite's intended transaction price has also declined, and the market is lightly traded [3] - Last week, the weekly operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.2 percentage points to 60.1%. The operating rates of various sectors of aluminum processing are differentiated, showing a pattern of "eased supply - side disturbances and intensified demand - side suppression". High aluminum prices have restricted downstream consumption and the recovery of the industry operating rate [3] - As of January 12, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 730,000 tons, an increase of 46,000 tons from the previous Monday [3] - The macro performance is strong. Driven by the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and domestic monetary easing and consumption policies, aluminum prices remain high. However, it is in the domestic off - season, and inventories are gradually accumulating [4]