晨报 铝锭 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：关税政策重创市场情绪 铝价向下回调 投资咨询业务资格： 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:上周铝价偏弱调整，受美国"对等关税"超预期引发的市场对全 球贸易冲突升级以及全球经济衰退担忧的影响，市场风险偏好大幅降温并 引发了市场大规模抛售。虽然铝产品受 232 条款关税约束无需缴纳新关税， 但政策对全球贸易影响深远，对终端消费的利空预计逐步体现。 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 右。2024 年 12 月 30 日-2025 年 1 月 5 日，10 个重点城市新建商品房成 交（签约）面积总计 223.4 万平方米，环比下降 40.3%， ...

晨报 煤焦 煤焦：关税政策冲击市场情绪 盘面弱势运行 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 逻辑：近期美国政府关税政策超市场预期，我国对此加以反制，关税 扰动加剧，市场情绪将受冲击，黑色金属板块震荡偏弱。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 从基本面来看，五大材进入库存去化周期，且当前钢厂盈利率尚可， 上周高炉开工延续回升，日均铁水产量增至 238.73 万吨，环比上周增加 1.45 万吨，同比去年增加 15.15 万吨，焦炭刚性需求向好。焦煤方面， 上周煤矿开工率提升，焦精煤日均产量 76.9 万吨，环比增加 1.0 万吨，同 比增加 4.1 万吨；进口端，3 月中旬蒙煤通关量较上旬回升，口岸监管区 库存仍在高位，月度数据显示，蒙煤前 2 月累计进口量 644.26 万吨，同 比降幅较明显，达 17.03%。 原材料：程 鹏 观点：关税政策扰动加剧，市场情绪受到冲击。盘面亦受交割博弈拖 累，短期煤焦整体维持低位震荡 ...

工业硅：供需格局尚未扭转，硅价继续弱势震荡 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 晨报 工业硅 供给端：内蒙、云南、陕西、宁夏和山东在产硅企开工暂稳，前期计划减 产尚未落地，企业库存累积。北方市场货源充裕，期现商报价积极，市场对替 代品，即再生硅和 97 硅询价渐起，但成交一般。粉单招标价格再度下滑，有机 硅方面在减产操作下，需求难以持稳。 成 材：武秋婷 需求端：当前多晶硅价格暂稳，下游仍为按需采购，对硅料需求尚未出现 明显增长，当前复投料报 37-39 元/千克，致密料报价 35-38 元/千克，菜花料 报价 32-34 元/千克，N 型料价格 41-43 元/千克。有机硅 DMC 报价整体持稳， 主流成交价参考至 14000-14500 元/吨(净水送到)，主流生产装置陆续启动弹性 生产调节。而需求端受制于终端消费疲软，下游仅按需采购并伺机压价，市场 交投活跃度依赖刚性需求维持。铝合金锭价格平稳，合金锭市场依旧维持弱需 求，市场交投氛 ...

晨报 铁矿石 铁矿石：对等关税利空 价格偏弱运行 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 4 月 3 日 供应方面：本期主流发运属于季末冲量期，发运量环比回升，4 月份供应端整体预期环比 增加，其中主流矿山存在季未冲量后的季节性下滑预期，一般存在 1 周左右发运环比减量，非 主流保持相对偏弱，国产矿处于缓慢回升阶段，预计供给端将处于回升周期，供给端支撑力度 进一步减弱。 成 材：武秋婷 需求方面：需求整体处于回升阶段，根据当前钢厂利润水平以及下游需求变动情况来看，4 月份国内铁矿石需求仍存在一定上升空间，预期铁水最高或上升至 240 万吨/日( ...

晨报 铝锭 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：宏观政策干扰 铝价回调去库良好 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:昨日铝价偏弱整理。据新华社报道，美国总统特朗普 2 日在白宫 签署关于所谓"对等关税"的行政令，宣布美国对贸易伙伴加征 10%的"最 低基准关税"并对某些贸易伙伴征收更高关税。对全球贸易紧张局势升级 对美国经济影响的担忧，以及一系列弱于预期的美国数据，加剧了经济衰 退的担忧，美元走弱。 右。2024 年 12 月 30 日-2025 年 1 月 5 日，10 个重点城市新建商品房成 交（签约）面积总计 223.4 万平方米，环比下降 40.3%，同比增长 43.2%。 成材昨日继续震荡下行，价格再创近期新低。在供需双弱的格局下， ...

晨报 成材 成材：关注周度需求变化 整理运行 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 地址：北京市海淀区海淀大街 8 号 19 层 ☎ 400-700-6700 www.zgfcc.com 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 4 月 3 日 逻辑：本周，唐山主流样本钢厂平均钢坯含税成本 2946 元/吨，与 4 月 2 日当前普方坯出厂价格 3050 元/吨相比，钢厂平均盈利 104 元/吨， 周环比增加 4 元/吨。百年建筑调研，截至 4 月 1 日，样本建筑工地资金 到位率为 57.95%，周环比上升 0.08 个百分点。其中，非房建项目资金到 位率为 59.74%，周环比上升 0.04 个百分点。4 月 2 日，M ...

晨报 煤焦 煤焦：煤矿提产 盘面弱势震荡 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 后期关注/风险因素：关注钢厂高炉开工变化、进口煤通关情况。 重要声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开的资料，我公司对信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证，也不保证包含的信 息和建议不会发生变更，我们已力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中观点、结论和建议仅供参考，投资者据此 做出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关。 地址：北京市海淀区海淀大街 8 号 19 层 ☎ 400-700-6700 www.zgfcc.com 成文时间： 2025 年 4 月 3 日 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The反复 US tariff policy has triggered market concerns and affected market risk appetite, while the cautious adjustment of the Fed's monetary policy has also impacted the commodity market. However, the positive support of domestic policies and the continuous recovery of market demand have provided support for commodity prices. Future attention should be paid to the US tariff policy and the risk of price fluctuations in the commodity market caused by unexpected changes in the Fed's monetary policy [4][48]. - For aluminum, the macro - overseas policy is still in a state of game, and there are uncertainties in overseas tariff policies. The domestic economy is expected to maintain a stable and progressive development trend. In the short term, with macro - support and the peak season resonance, aluminum prices are expected to remain in a high - level range in the second quarter [4][102]. - For zinc, in the second quarter, the supply and demand of zinc are expected to increase. In April, it may be supported by the phased recovery of demand, but in the long - term, zinc prices may face greater pressure from the continuous supply surplus. It is expected that zinc prices will fluctuate weakly in the second quarter [8]. - For tin, due to frequent problems in overseas mines and the slowdown of the recovery of the supply side, tin prices are expected to remain high in the second quarter [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Macro: The US Tariff Window is Approaching, Focus on the Evolution of Domestic and Overseas Demand Market Operation Logic - **US**: The manufacturing industry has re - entered the contraction range, with the March ISM manufacturing PMI at 49, down 1.3 points from the previous month. The labor market shows signs of a mild slowdown, and inflation pressure has eased but remains resilient. The Fed's monetary policy adjustment will be more cautious, and it is expected that the Fed will continue to suspend interest rate cuts at the May FOMC meeting [18][19][21]. - **Eurozone**: The economic growth momentum is still weak. Although inflation is on a downward trend, the ECB will carefully balance economic growth and inflation risks. The April ECB meeting may suspend interest rate cuts but may release a clearer easing signal, and the probability of a rate cut in June has increased [23][25][26]. - **China**: The economy started smoothly with policies taking the lead. From January to February, infrastructure investment increased significantly, manufacturing investment remained at a high level, and the decline in real estate development investment narrowed. The consumer market showed a mild recovery, and financial data showed strong social financing but weak credit. The domestic price level maintained a mild upward trend [31][33][48]. Market Trend Judgment - Overseas, the Fed's monetary policy adjustment will be more cautious, and the ECB will also balance economic growth and inflation risks. Domestically, the economy continues to recover, but attention should be paid to the impact of US tariff policies and insufficient domestic demand. The US tariff policy and the Fed's monetary policy changes may cause price fluctuations in the commodity market [47][48]. Later Concerns/Risk Factors - Overseas economic trends, monetary policy changes, the evolution of the US tariff policy, overseas geopolitical risks, domestic incremental policies, and terminal demand [50]. 3.2 Aluminum: Expectations are Gradually Verified, Focus on Further Guidance Market Operation Logic - **Price Trend in Q1 2025**: In January, aluminum prices fluctuated strongly and then moved in a range. In February, they oscillated strongly with a slightly higher center of gravity. In March, they first rose and then fell [52][53]. - **Cost Side**: The price of bauxite is stable, and the supply of imported bauxite is expected to increase. The price of alumina is under pressure due to new production capacity. The cost of electrolytic aluminum has increased due to the rise in auxiliary materials [58][65][68]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The production of electrolytic aluminum increased in March, and the import window is closed. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is expected to rise slightly in April [71][73]. - **Scrap Aluminum**: The price difference between refined and scrap aluminum narrowed slightly. The import of scrap aluminum increased, but the terminal consumption of the recycled aluminum market was sluggish [76]. - **Demand Side**: The aluminum processing industry entered the expansion range in March. The terminal demand was divided, with strong demand in the power grid, new energy vehicles, and photovoltaic sectors, but weak demand in the real estate construction sector [80][86][92]. - **Supply - Demand Balance and Inventory**: In March, the domestic social inventory decreased during the peak season, which supported the price. However, the high - level operation of aluminum prices affected the spot supply - demand pattern of the aluminum industry chain [97]. Market Trend Judgment - Macro - overseas policies are still in a game, and there are uncertainties in overseas tariff policies. The domestic economy is expected to develop steadily. In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to remain in a high - level range in the second quarter, with support at 19,500 - 19,800 and pressure at 21,000 - 21,300 [102]. Later Concerns/Risk Factors - Macro - policy game, overseas event interference, mine resumption and shipping, inventory trends, and actual terminal demand [104]. 3.3 Zinc: Short - Term Positive Demand Expectations Provide Support, but Zinc Prices Remain Under Pressure in the Medium - to - Long Term Market Operation Logic - **Market Trend in Q1 2025**: In the first quarter, zinc prices fluctuated in a range with a lower center of gravity. In January, they weakened due to weakening fundamental support. In February, they moved in a range. In March, they were boosted by macro and peak - season expectations [106][108][109]. - **Zinc Concentrate**: The production of zinc concentrate is expected to increase, but the overall supply may not recover significantly in 2025. The processing fee continued to rise, indicating that the tight situation of the ore has eased. The import volume increased in the first two months, and the port inventory has improved [112][114][117]. - **Refined Zinc**: The profit of zinc smelters has been continuously repaired, and production enthusiasm has increased. The import window is closed, and there is an expectation of a reduction in imports in the second quarter [121][123]. - **Zinc Consumption**: Policy support is expected to boost zinc consumption growth, and attention should be paid to changes in the supply - demand relationship [8]. Market Trend Judgment - In the second quarter, the supply and demand of zinc are expected to increase. In April, it may be supported by the phased recovery of demand, but in the long - term, zinc prices may face greater pressure from the continuous supply surplus. It is expected that zinc prices will fluctuate weakly in the second quarter, with a reference price range of 22,500 - 24,500 yuan/ton [8]. 3.4 Tin: Tight Supply at the Mine End, Tin Prices Remain High Market Operation Logic - **Domestic Refined Tin**: The production of domestic refined tin increased, but the processing fee has dropped to a low level in recent years due to the tight supply of mines [8]. - **Overseas Supply**: Frequent problems in overseas mines, such as the possible delay of the resumption of production in Myanmar and the suspension of the Bisie mine in the DRC, have affected the global supply and pushed up tin prices [8]. - **Downstream Demand**: The semiconductor industry continues to grow, and the automotive and home appliance markets are optimistic. The overall demand is warm but may not exceed expectations [8]. Later Concerns/Risk Factors - There is no specific information provided in the given content about the later concerns/risk factors for tin.

黑色季报 2 季度 盘面缺乏有效驱动 关注需求兑现节奏 ——2025 年 2 季度黑色金属分析报告 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1452 号 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号： F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 宏观：美国关税窗口临近 关注国内外需求演变 核心观点： 宏观/成材：武秋婷 原材料：程 鹏 海外方面，美国近期经济数据表现偏弱，制造业重返萎缩区间，消费者信心指数 不及预期，就业市场也出现温和放缓迹象，虽然通胀压力有所缓解，但韧性依然偏强， 经济增长动能有所减弱，在通胀韧性与经济增长放缓压力并存背景下，美联储货币政 策调整将更为谨慎，我们预计美联储 5 月议息会议将继续暂停降 ...

从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 晨报 铁矿石 铁矿石：盘面受消息刺激 短期波动加剧 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 本报告中的信息均来源于公开的资料，我公司对信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证，也不保证包含的信 息和建议不会发生变更，我们已力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中观点、结论和建议仅供参考，投资者据此 做出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关。 地址：北京市海淀区海淀大街 8 号 19 层 ☎ 400-700-6700 www.zgfcc.com 逻辑：昨日原材料焦炭、铁矿石均出现脉冲式拉升，原材料表现强于成材，整体看一方面 是螺纹在谷电成本附近获得支撑，铁水仍在回升周期，叠 ...