1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Overall Viewpoint**: The report analyzes the black - chain industry, including various products such as steel products, iron ore, coal - coke, and ferroalloys. It points out that different products have different market trends, with overall market conditions affected by factors like supply - demand relationships, production capacity utilization, and macro - policies [9][10][13]. - **Specific Product Viewpoints**: - **Steel Products**: The steel market shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with steel prices expected to oscillate at a low level. The overall trend is weak [9]. - **Iron Ore**: In the short term, iron ore prices are expected to oscillate at a high level, supported by pre - holiday restocking. The price of the main contract (2601 contract) is expected to range between 790 - 820 yuan/ton, corresponding to an external market FE10 price of about 105 - 108 US dollars/ton [10]. - **Coal - Coke**: In the short term, the rapid resumption of production at both the supply and demand ends of coal - coke, especially the rapid increase in hot metal production, supports the rigid demand for raw materials. Pre - holiday restocking by downstream industries is expected to boost market sentiment [12]. - **Ferroalloys**: The market has entered the traditional peak season, but the short - term demand is still not up to expectations. The market sentiment is cautious. Ferroalloys maintain a situation of strong supply and weak demand, with inventory pressure increasing, and prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Market Review - **Futures and Spot Prices**: From September 5th to September 12th, 2025, the prices of various products showed different trends. For example, the price of the RB2601 contract of rebar decreased by 16 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.51%, and the spot price of HRB400E: Φ20 in Shanghai decreased by 20 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.62%. The price of the HC2601 contract of hot - rolled coil increased by 24 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.72%, and the spot price in Shanghai increased by 20 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.59% [7]. 3.2 This Week's Black Market Forecast - **Steel Products**: The supply is strong and the demand is weak. Last week, the scale of steel mill maintenance decreased significantly, and the scale of resumption of production increased. The daily average hot metal output increased, but the downstream demand was weak, dragging down steel prices. The overall trend is weak [9]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply is expected to increase steadily. Although the demand has increased in the short term due to pre - holiday restocking, in the medium term, the supply - demand relationship is changing from tight to balanced. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level [10]. - **Coal - Coke**: The futures prices oscillated last week, with a slight weekly decline. The coking coal market is generally weak, but there are expectations for pre - National Day restocking. The rapid increase in hot metal production supports the demand for raw materials, and pre - holiday restocking is expected to boost market sentiment [12]. - **Ferroalloys**: The demand is not up to expectations for the time being. The supply is relatively high, and the inventory is increasing. The prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [13]. 3.3 Product Data 3.3.1 Steel Products - **Rebar**: Last week, the output was 211.93 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.75 tons; the apparent demand was 198.07 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.00 tons. The total inventory was 653.86 tons, a week - on - week increase of 13.86 tons [15][23]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Last week, the output was 325.14 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10.90 tons; the apparent demand was 326.16 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20.80 tons. The total inventory was 373.32 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.02 tons [29][33]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - **Port Inventory**: This week, the total import ore port inventory was 13849.47 tons, a week - on - week increase of 24.15 tons; the port Australian ore inventory was 5806.51 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 69.51 tons; the port Brazilian ore inventory was 5228.22 tons, a week - on - week increase of 109.26 tons [44]. - **Steel Mill Inventory and Consumption**: This week, the inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 8993.05 tons, a week - on - week increase of 53.18 tons; the daily consumption was 296.65 tons/day, a week - on - week increase of 15.98 tons [54]. 3.3.3 Coal - Coke - **Coke Inventory**: Last week, the total coke inventory (coke enterprises + steel mills + ports) was 906.21 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10.95 tons [84]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: Last week, the total coking coal inventory (coke enterprises + steel mills + coal mines + ports + coal washing plants) was 2483.41 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 62.28 tons [98]. 3.3.4 Ferroalloys - **Spot Prices**: Last week, the price of semi - carbonated manganese ore in Tianjin Port was 33.8 yuan/dry ton degree, a week - on - week increase of 0.3 yuan; the spot price of ferromanganese in Inner Mongolia was 5650 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 30 yuan; the spot price of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia was 5280 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 30 yuan [121]. - **Production and Demand**: Last week, the output of 187 independent ferromanganese enterprises was 214130 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1295 tons; the demand for ferromanganese in five major steel products decreased by 1.09% week - on - week [129][133].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Aluminum: With macro - level interest rate cut expectations and support from the peak season, aluminum prices are expected to be mainly strong in the near term, with strengthened downside support. Attention should be paid to the Fed meeting this week [9]. - Zinc: In the short term, focus on macro - sentiment. With interest rate cut expectations and the "Golden September and Silver October" season, zinc prices are expected to fluctuate. However, medium - to long - term supply increases will put pressure on the upside [11]. - Tin: In the short term, the tin market shows a situation of weak supply and demand [13]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 01. Colorful Weekly Market Review - Copper: The closing price of the futures main contract on September 12, 2025, was 81,060, up 920 (1.15%) from September 5. The average price of copper in Shanghai Wumaomarket was 80,990, up 1,025 (1.28%) [7]. - Aluminum: The closing price of the futures main contract on September 12, 2025, was 21,120, up 425 (2.05%) from September 5. The average price of A00 aluminum in the non - ferrous market was 21,050, up 370 (1.79%) [7]. - Zinc: The closing price of the futures main contract on September 12, 2025, was 22,305, up 150 (0.68%) from September 5. The price of zinc ingots was 22,236, up 430 (1.97%) [7]. - Tin: The closing price of the futures main contract on September 12, 2025, was 273,950, up 1,490 (0.55%) from September 5. The average price of tin in Shanghai Wumaomarket was 273,250, up 1,000 (0.37%) [7]. - Nickel: The closing price of the futures main contract on September 12, 2025, was 121,980, up 670 (0.55%) from September 5. The average price of 1 nickel was 123,430, up 1,390 (1.14%) [7]. 02. This Week's Colorful Market Forecast - **Aluminum** - Logic: Last week, aluminum prices were strong. Macroeconomic factors such as a surge in US initial jobless claims and moderate inflation increase may lead the Fed to restart interest rate cuts. Fundamentally, domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity remains high, the industry's start - up rate increased slightly, the aluminum - water ratio is expected to rise slightly, the cost is stable, and downstream demand is recovering. As of September 15, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 637,000 tons, and the de - stocking inflection point needs further observation [9]. - View: Expected to be mainly strong in the near term [9]. - **Zinc** - Logic: Last week, zinc prices fluctuated. The SMM Zn50 weekly TC average price decreased, and domestic zinc mine production profits were compressed. Smelters have strong production enthusiasm due to high profits. The galvanizing start - up rate increased, and zinc ingot inventories increased. The domestic consumption lacks obvious "peak season" characteristics [10]. - View: Expected to fluctuate in the short term, with medium - to long - term supply pressure [11]. - **Tin** - Logic: In July, China's tin ore imports decreased year - on - year and month - on - month. Myanmar's tin production progress is slow. Supply shortages in Yunnan and Jiangxi have led to a decline in smelter start - up rates. Downstream demand is average, showing a situation of weak supply and demand [13]. - View: Short - term weak supply and demand [13]. 03. Variety Data Aluminum - **Bauxite** - Price: The price of domestic high - grade bauxite in Henan was 650 yuan/ton in the week of September 12, up 10 week - on - week and 15 year - on - year; the price of domestic low - grade bauxite in Henan was 580 yuan/ton, up 10 week - on - week and 30 year - on - year; the average price of imported bauxite index was 75.48 US dollars/ton, down 0.05 week - on - week and 1.13 year - on - year [17]. - Arrival and departure volume: The arrival volume at ports in the week of September 12 was 4254,500 tons, up 858,700 week - on - week and 1,310,700 year - on - year; the departure volume was 4673,100 tons, up 1,038,000 week - on - week and 1,462,300 year - on - year [20]. - **Alumina** - Price and cost - profit: The domestic price in Henan was 3,060 yuan/ton in the week of September 12, down 80 week - on - week and 905 year - on - year; the full cost was 2,902 yuan/ton, up 0.8 week - on - week and 41.3 year - on - year; the profit in Shanxi was 43.39 yuan/ton, down 89.49 week - on - week and 1,026.97 year - on - year [23]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum** - Cost and price difference: The total cost was 16,427.69 yuan/ton in the week of September 12, down 143.57 week - on - week and 1,139.54 year - on - year; the regional price difference between Foshan and SMM A00 aluminum was - 60 yuan/ton, up 10 week - on - week and 30 year - on - year [25]. - Start - up rate: The start - up rates of aluminum cable, aluminum foil, aluminum plate and strip, aluminum profile, primary aluminum alloy, and recycled aluminum alloy showed different changes in the week of September 11 [29][30]. - Inventory: The bonded area inventory in Shanghai was 69,500 tons in the week of September 11, down 5,600 week - on - week and up 33,200 year - on - year; the total bonded area inventory was 92,500 tons, down 3,600 week - on - week and up 46,000 year - on - year; the social inventory was 637,000 tons in the week of September 15, up 6,000 week - on - week and down 111,000 year - on - year; the weekly outbound volume of aluminum ingots in major consumption areas was 107,600 tons, down 13,800 week - on - week and up 3,900 year - on - year; the SHFE inventory was 128,499 tons in the week of September 12, up 4,421 week - on - week and down 150,672 year - on - year; the LME inventory was 485,275 tons in the week of September 11, up 600 week - on - week and down 339,075 year - on - year [35][36]. - Basis: The basis of SMM A00 aluminum in different periods and regions showed different changes in the week of September 12 [41][44]. - Monthly spread: The monthly spread of Shanghai Aluminum in different periods showed different changes in the week of September 12 [45]. Zinc - **Zinc Concentrate** - Price and processing fee: The price of domestic zinc concentrate was 16,878 yuan/metal ton in the week of September 12, up 72 week - on - week and down 3,784 year - on - year; the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee was 3,850 yuan/metal ton, down 50 week - on - week and up 2,400 year - on - year; the import zinc concentrate processing fee was 98.75 US dollars/dry ton, up 2.5 week - on - week [52]. - Production profit, import profit and loss, and inventory: The enterprise production profit was 3,878 yuan/metal ton in the week of September 12, up 218 week - on - week and down 3,376 year - on - year; the import profit and loss was - 2,149.17 yuan/ton, down 560.21 week - on - week and down 2,627.64 year - on - year; the import zinc concentrate inventory in Lianyungang was 160,000 physical tons, up 30,000 week - on - week and up 130,000 year - on - year [55]. - **Refined Zinc** - Inventory: The zinc ingot social inventory in SMM's seven regions was 160,600 tons in the week of September 15, up 8,500 week - on - week and up 46,100 year - on - year; the zinc ingot bonded area inventory was 8,000 tons in the week of September 11, unchanged week - on - week and up 2,500 year - on - year; the SHFE refined zinc inventory was 94,649 tons in the week of September 12, up 7,617 week - on - week and up 9,037 year - on - year; the LME zinc inventory was 50,525 tons in the week of September 11, down 3,525 week - on - week and down 181,900 year - on - year [58]. - **Galvanizing** - Production, start - up rate, and inventory: The production in the week of September 11 was 332,345 tons, up 43,245 week - on - week and down 10,010 year - on - year; the start - up rate was 56.06%, up 5.98 week - on - week and down 1.68 year - on - year; the raw material inventory was 13,860 tons, up 1,190 week - on - week and up 1,270 year - on - year; the finished product inventory was 375,700 tons, down 21,200 week - on - week and down 56,500 year - on - year [61]. - **Zinc Basis and Monthly Spread** - Basis: The basis of SMM 0 zinc ingot in different periods showed different changes in the week of September 12 [64]. - Monthly spread: The monthly spread of Shanghai Zinc in different periods showed different changes in the week of September 12 [68]. Tin - **Refined Tin** - Production and start - up rate: The combined production of Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces was 0.138 million tons in the week of September 12, down 0.1 week - on - week and down 0.0375 year - on - year; the combined start - up rate was 28.48%, down 20.63 week - on - week and down 7.74 year - on - year [73]. - **Tin Ingot** - Inventory: The SHFE tin ingot total inventory was 7,897 tons in the week of September 12, up 124 week - on - week and down 1,602 year - on - year; the Chinese regional tin ingot social inventory was 9,389 tons, up 108 week - on - week and down 1,419 year - on - year [76]. - **Tin Concentrate** - Processing fee: The processing fees of tin concentrate in different regions and grades were flat week - on - week and down year - on - year in the week of September 12 [78]. - Import profit and loss: The import profit and loss level of tin ore was 8,842.8 yuan/ton in the week of September 11, down 14,028.26 week - on - week and down 7,146.94 year - on - year [79]. - **Spot** - Average price: The average prices of 40% and 60% tin concentrates in different regions increased week - on - week and year - on - year in the week of September 12 [84].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market has fully priced in the Fed's interest rate cut. It is expected that the market trading focus will shift to real - world factors. With the arrival of the peak season for domestic terminals, the market will trade more based on the fundamental changes of the black - series commodities. In the short term, iron ore supply is steadily increasing, and demand is falling from a high level under the backdrop of a significant decline in blast furnace profits. The medium - term supply - demand relationship is changing from tight - balance to balance, but the pre - holiday restocking demand will still support prices. It is expected that iron ore prices will mainly maintain a high - level oscillating trend [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - External ore shipments have significantly declined, mainly due to a sharp drop in Vale's shipments and non - mainstream shipments, while Australian shipments are relatively stable. The arrival volume is slightly lower than the same period last year. As the previous high - volume shipments continue to arrive at ports, the pressure on the supply side is expected to gradually emerge, and overall, the support from the supply side is continuously weakening [2] Demand - With the end of environmental protection restrictions in North China, domestic demand has recovered to the previous level. The daily average pig iron output this period is 240.55 (a month - on - month increase of 11.71). Although the steel mill profitability rate has been continuously declining, it is still at a high level compared to the same period in the past five years (only lower than 2021). After the high - level blast furnace profits have declined, they are approaching the break - even level, and the short - process steelmaking is in a state of full - scale losses. Near the National Day holiday, steel mills have a concentrated restocking demand, and their inventory levels are low. The short - term restocking demand may support iron ore prices [3] Inventory - The daily consumption at the steel mill end has increased simultaneously with the resumption of production in multiple regions. The inventory level has increased slightly but is lower than the same period last year. In the middle and late part of the month, as the pre - holiday restocking period begins, the steel mill inventory will seasonally increase. Later, attention should be paid to whether the National Day restocking intensity exceeds expectations. This period, the port inventory has continued a slight increasing trend. With the lifting of environmental protection restrictions, the out - port volume has significantly increased. At the same time, the pre - holiday restocking in China will drive the inventory level down [3] Price - Iron ore prices are oscillating within a certain range [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply and demand of coking coal and coke are recovering rapidly, especially the rapid rebound of hot metal, which supports the rigid demand for raw materials. Attention should be paid to the pre - holiday replenishment actions of downstream enterprises [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Market Performance - Last week, the coking coal and coke futures prices fluctuated overall and closed slightly lower on a weekly basis. On the spot side, the transaction of high - priced resources at some coal mines was weak, and the prices remained stable with a slight decline. Last Friday, steel mills started the second round of price cuts for coke, planning to implement it this week [3] Supply Side - The coking coal market remained weak, with transaction prices mainly falling. The enthusiasm of downstream buyers remained weak. However, after some coal mines cut prices, sales improved. The market still expected pre - National Day replenishment. Last week, coal production gradually recovered, with the daily average clean coal output of 523 coal mines reaching 728,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 35,000 tons. Affected by production cuts and improved sales after price cuts at some coal mines, mine - end inventories decreased [3] Demand Side - The resumption of production in steel mills was relatively fast. Last week, the daily average hot metal output unexpectedly rebounded to 2.4055 million tons, an increase of 117,100 tons from the previous week, returning to the level before the production limit. Currently, the profitability rate of steel mills is 60.17%, a decrease of 0.87 percentage points from last week and an increase of 54.11 percentage points compared with last year. Finished products are in a continuous inventory accumulation process, and the profits of steel mills have narrowed, which may limit the rebound space of hot metal. In the later stage, the demand for raw materials will face a test [4]

Group 1: Report on Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core View of the Report - The steel price of finished products is expected to run weakly with fluctuations [3]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Contents Production Status - Last week, the scale of maintenance of construction steel mills significantly decreased and the scale of resumption of production increased. There were 5 maintenance production lines, 12 less than the previous week, and 8 resumption production lines, 6 more than the previous week. The production affected by production line maintenance was 257,800 tons last week, and it is expected to be 189,600 tons this week [2]. - The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.18%, a week - on - week increase of 4.39 percentage points. The steel mill profitability rate was 60.17%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.87 percentage points. The daily average hot metal output was 2.4055 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 117,100 tons [2]. - The average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills nationwide was 55.26%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.48 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 18.52 percentage points [2]. Price and Market Situation - The price of Tangshan Qian'an common billet was stable at 3,010 yuan/ton last weekend [2]. - Finished products fluctuated and declined last week, with a rebound during Friday's trading session, but the whole week was mainly characterized by downward fluctuations to a recent low. After the military parade, the previously shut - down production capacity gradually recovered, and the hot metal output increased rapidly last week. The demand side changed little, showing a characteristic of strong supply and weak demand, which is expected to continue in the short term [2]. Later Concerns - Macro policies, supply - side production reduction situation, and downstream demand situation should be focused on [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move in a range-bound manner, with the price center shifting downward and showing a weak trend [1][2] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to be strong in the short term, with macro and fundamental factors resonating, and the overseas interest rate cut expectation to be fulfilled [1][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel producers will have a shutdown and maintenance period from mid - January, with a resumption around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 1 short - process steel mill stopped production on January 5, and most others will stop around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [1][2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2] - The price of finished products continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand, market sentiment is pessimistic, and winter storage is sluggish, providing little price support [2] Aluminum Ingot - Last week, the aluminum price rose strongly. Due to the surge in the number of initial jobless claims in the US and moderate inflation, the Fed may resume interest rate cuts. The market generally expects a 25 - basis - point rate cut on September 17 [1] - The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity remains high, with the industry's operating rate increasing slightly. The aluminum - water ratio is expected to rise slightly. The alumina spot price moves narrowly, and the electrolytic aluminum's immediate cost changes little [2] - The overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.4 percentage points to 62.1% last week. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas decreased by 6,000 tons from Monday and 1,000 tons from last Thursday. Whether the inventory decline inflection point can occur in mid - September needs further observation [2] - With the macro interest rate cut expectation to be fulfilled and the transition to the peak season, macro and fundamental factors are favorable, and the price is expected to be supported and run at a high level recently. Attention should be paid to the inventory - consumption trend [3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoint The supply and demand sides of coal and coke have implemented production cuts, but most of the production cut cycles are short. Attention should be paid to the resumption process. The market sentiment is generally cooling down but still fluctuating, and prices are under pressure and oscillating [3][4]. 3) Summary by Related Content Market Performance - Yesterday, coal and coke futures prices oscillated, and there was a rapid rise near the close of the night session. On the spot side, the high - priced resources of some coal mines had weak sales, and prices were stable with a slight decline. The first round of coke price reduction has been implemented [3]. Supply Side - Last week, due to the military parade, many coal mines in Shanxi stopped production for maintenance, leading to a significant decline in coal production. This week, production is gradually recovering. The daily average coking coal output of 523 coal mines this week is 72.8 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.5 million tons. Mine - end inventory has decreased [3]. Demand Side - Last week, the steel mill production cut expectation was realized. The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills' blast furnaces was 228.84 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11.29 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 6.23 million tons. Most steel mills resumed production on September 4, and short - term hot metal output tends to rise. However, due to factors such as continuous inventory accumulation of finished products and narrowing steel mill profits, raw material demand will face challenges later [4].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating provided in the report. 2) Core Views -成材预计震荡整理运行，关注宏观政策和下游需求情况 [3] -铝锭预计价格短期偏强震荡，关注宏观情绪和矿端消息 [4] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs **成材** -云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节停产检修预计影响总产量74.1万吨，安徽省6家短流程钢厂停产期间日度影响产量1.62万吨左右 [2] -2024年12月30日 - 2025年1月5日，10个重点城市新建商品房成交面积环比下降40.3%，同比增长43.2% [3] -成材昨日震荡下行，价格创新低，供需双弱，市场情绪悲观，冬储低迷，价格重心下移 [3] **铝锭** -昨日铝价偏强震荡，8月美国PPI意外环比下跌，市场预计美联储本月降息25个基点概率为90% [2] -上周国内铝下游加工龙头企业整体开工率环比上升1个百分点至61.7%，各版块复苏态势向好 [3] -9月8日国内主流消费地电解铝锭库存63.10万吨，较上周四增长0.5万吨，较上周一上涨0.8万吨 [3] -宏观降息预期即将兑现，当下过渡到金九银十，宏观与基本面利好共振，预计价格支撑力度加大 [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "oscillating weakly" [2] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The steel price is expected to continue oscillating weakly, as the current low demand with no short - term improvement and the rising production may put pressure on the price, and the market lacks new drivers, following the industry's fundamental logic [1][2] Group 3: Summary According to the Content Cost and Profit - This week, the average含税 cost of steel billets of mainstream sample steel mills in Tangshan is 2991 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton week - on - week. Compared with the ex - factory price of common billets of 2990 yuan/ton on September 10th, the average loss of steel mills is 1 yuan/ton [1] - On September 10th, the average cost of 76 independent electric arc furnace construction steel mills is 3342 yuan/ton, with an average profit loss of 145 yuan/ton and a valley - electricity profit loss of 49 yuan/ton [1] Real Estate Sales - As of September 10th, according to Mysteel statistics, the total sales of 16 key real - estate enterprises from January to August 2025 are 868.862 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 17%. The total sales in August are 106.451 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 4.5% and a month - on - month increase of 20.2% [1] Market Situation - After the military parade, both supply and demand have recovered. Currently, the low demand and the rising production may bring more pressure on the price [1] Later Concerns - Later concerns include macro policies, supply - side production reduction, and downstream demand [2]

晨报 铁矿石 铁矿石：供给端消息扰动 短期高位震荡 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 供应方面：外矿发运显著回落，主要原因是淡水河谷发运以及非主流回落明显，澳洲发运 相对稳定。到港量水平略低于去年同期，随着前期高发运量持续到港，预计供给端压力将逐步 体现，整体看，供给端支撑力度持续减弱。 原材料：程 鹏 需求方面：国内日均铁水量因华北限产环比显著下滑，本期日均铁水产量 228.84（环比 -11.29），当前钢厂盈利率持续回落且高炉利润水平趋近盈亏平衡水平，虽然短流程再度陷入 全面亏损对铁矿石需求存在一定程度保护，但整体看国内需求对价格支撑力度边际减弱。 库存方面：因华北地区检修增多，钢厂端进口矿日耗以及库存环比回落，后期关注十一补 库力度；本期港口库存小幅累积，后期需关注钢厂日耗以及高铁水回升幅度（能否回升至 235 以上），此将决定后期库存累积速率。 观点：市场对美联储降息定价较为充分，预计市场交投重心将侧重于交易现实，随着国内 终 ...