贵金属日报 2026-01-26 贵金属 钟俊轩 贵金属研究员 从业资格号：F03112694 交易咨询号：Z0022090 电话：0755-23375141 邮箱： zhongjunxuan@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 沪金涨 1.66 %，报 1121.16 元/克，沪银涨 6.32 %，报 25650.00 元/千克；COMEX 金报 5023.10 美元/盎司，COMEX 银报 104.73 美元/盎司； 美国 10 年期国债收益率报 4.24%，美元指数报 97.17 ； 美国三季度 PCE 物价指数季度环比年化值为 2.8%，低于预期的 3.5%，三季度核心 PCE 物价指 数季度环比年化值为 2.9%，符合预期及前值。美国 11 月核心 PCE 物价指数同比值为 2.8%，符 合预期。美国 1 月标普全球制造业 PMI 为 51.9，低于预期的 52，1 月标普全球服务业 PMI 为 52.5，低于预期的 52.8，综合 PMI 为 52.8，低于预期的 53。当前 CME 利率观测器显示，当前 市场定价联储今年分别在 6 月以及 10 月进行 25 个基点的降息操作。 【策略观点】 金银价格 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, aluminum prices first declined and then rebounded. Trump's threat to impose tariffs on Europe once suppressed market sentiment, but then the sentiment eased. SHFE aluminum rose 1.4% this week, and LME aluminum rose 0.9%. Currently, domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum bar inventories continue to accumulate, and high prices still suppress downstream demand. However, in the context of the off - season, this does not constitute a major negative for prices. There was concentrated delivery of LME aluminum, but the inventory remained at a relatively low level. Coupled with the high premium of US aluminum spot, the support for aluminum prices remains strong. Driven by the relatively loose policy environment at home and abroad and the continuous record - high of precious metals, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. The operating range of the SHFE aluminum main contract is expected to be 24,000 - 25,000 yuan/ton; the operating range of LME aluminum 3M is expected to be 3,120 - 3,220 US dollars/ton [12][13] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply Side**: As of the end of December 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was about 4,459.8 million tons, with a 1.9% year - on - year increase in production in December. January's production is expected to increase month - on - month. In December, overseas electrolytic aluminum production was 2.581 million tons, a 3.6% month - on - month and 2.2% year - on - year increase. The domestic molten aluminum ratio in December 2025 decreased by 0.8% month - on - month and is expected to decline further in January [12] - **Inventory & Spot**: According to MYSTEEL data, on Thursday this week, the aluminum ingot inventory was 768,000 tons, an increase of 19,000 tons from last Thursday. The bonded area inventory was 48,000 tons, a decrease of 7,000 tons from last Thursday. The total aluminum bar inventory was 229,000 tons, an increase of 16,000 tons from last Thursday. The global LME aluminum inventory was 507,000 tons, an increase of 22,000 tons from last week. The spot basis of domestic East China aluminum ingots strengthened, and the LME market's Cash/3M changed from premium to discount [12] - **Imports and Exports**: In December 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were 189,000 tons, a 29.5% month - on - month and 17.2% year - on - year increase. The cumulative imports from January to December were 2.538 million tons, an 18.8% year - on - year increase. In December, the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 545,000 tons, a 4.4% month - on - month decrease; the cumulative exports from January to December were 6.134 million tons, an 8.0% year - on - year decrease. Recently, the spot import loss of SHFE aluminum has narrowed [12] - **Demand Side**: According to SMM research, the comprehensive operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing this week increased by 0.7% to 60.9% compared with last week. Among them, the operating rates of aluminum cables and aluminum profiles rebounded month - on - month, while those of primary aluminum alloys, aluminum sheets and strips, and aluminum foils remained flat. In terms of demand, there is a seasonal recovery in food packaging foils and pharmaceutical foils before the Spring Festival, and orders from sub - sectors such as photovoltaics, automobiles, and batteries provide support. However, high aluminum prices continue to suppress the terminal's purchasing willingness, and downstream enterprises mainly replenish inventory on a just - in - time basis [12] 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: SHFE aluminum rose 1.4% to 24,290 yuan/ton this week (as of Friday afternoon's closing), and LME aluminum rose 0.9% to 3,173.5 US dollars/ton [23] - **Term Spread**: The contango of SHFE aluminum's first - to - third contract narrowed compared with last week [29] - **Spot Basis**: The discounts in East China, South China, and Central China narrowed compared with last week. The Central China spot was relatively strong. The LME aluminum Cash/3M changed from premium to discount [33][40][42] 3. Profit and Inventory - **Electrolytic Aluminum Smelting Profit**: The primary aluminum smelting profit increased compared with last week and is at a historical high [52] - **Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory**: Aluminum ingot inventory on Thursday this week was 768,000 tons, an increase of 19,000 tons from last Thursday. The bonded area inventory was 48,000 tons, a decrease of 7,000 tons from last Thursday. The total aluminum bar inventory was 229,000 tons, an increase of 16,000 tons from last Thursday. The global LME aluminum inventory was 507,000 tons, an increase of 22,000 tons from last week, still at a relatively low level in recent years. In December 2025, the proportion of aluminum from India in LME aluminum ingot inventory decreased to 39.5%, and the total inventory decreased [57][60][65][68] 4. Cost Side - **Bauxite Price**: Domestic and overseas bauxite prices remained unchanged compared with last week [73] - **Alumina Price**: Domestic alumina prices decreased by 10 yuan/ton compared with last week, and import prices decreased by 2 US dollars/ton [77] - **Electrolytic Aluminum Smelting Cost**: The anode price remained unchanged compared with last week, and the thermal coal price decreased by 10 yuan/ton compared with last week [81] 5. Supply Side - **Alumina**: In December 2025, the monthly alumina production was 8.003 million tons, an increase of 162,000 tons from November and an 8.7% year - on - year increase. The annual alumina production in 2025 was 90.647 million tons, a 10.1% year - on - year increase. The production in January 2026 is expected to remain high [86] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: As of the end of December 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was about 4,460.8 million tons. In December, the electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.9% month - on - month and 1.9% year - on - year. The operating capacity in January 2026 is expected to be relatively stable. In December 2025, overseas electrolytic aluminum production was 2.581 million tons, a 3.6% month - on - month and 2.2% year - on - year increase, and the annual production increased by about 2.8% year - on - year [89] - **Molten Aluminum Ratio**: This week, the aluminum bar processing fee first increased and then decreased. In December 2025, the domestic molten aluminum ratio decreased by 0.8% month - on - month. The casting volume of electrolytic aluminum ingots increased by 13.4% month - on - month and decreased by 7.7% year - on - year. This week, the molten aluminum ratio of domestic electrolytic aluminum enterprises decreased slightly, and it is expected to decline further in January 2026 [92] - **Provincial Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: In December 2025, the electrolytic aluminum production in each province increased month - on - month compared with November [97] 6. Demand Side - **Aluminum Products Production and Outbound Volume**: In December 2025, China's aluminum products production was 6.136 million tons, a 0.5% year - on - year increase; the cumulative production from January to December was 67.504 million tons, a 0.5% year - on - year decrease. As of January 19, 2026, the daily outbound volume of aluminum ingots was 124,000 tons, an increase from last week [101] - **Downstream Operating Rate**: In December 2025, the operating rates of aluminum profiles and aluminum sheets and strips decreased month - on - month, while those of primary aluminum alloy ingots and aluminum rods increased month - on - month. The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased. This week, the price difference between aluminum ingots and aluminum alloys widened by 5 yuan/ton to 816 yuan/ton [107][110][113] - **Terminal Demand**: According to the production scheduling reports of the three major white goods released by Industry Online, the production schedule of household air conditioners in January 2026 is 18.51 million units, an 11% increase compared with the actual production in the same period last year, turning from a decline to an increase year - on - year; the production schedule of refrigerators is 7.92 million units, a 3.6% increase compared with the actual production in the same period last year; the production schedule of washing machines is 8.1 million units, a 1.8% slight decrease compared with the actual production in the same period last year. In December 2025, the real - estate data continued to be weak, and the production and sales of automobiles weakened marginally. The production schedule of photovoltaic modules in January 2026 is expected to improve [117] 7. Imports and Exports - **Primary Aluminum Imports**: In December 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were 189,000 tons, a 29.5% month - on - month and 17.2% year - on - year increase. The cumulative imports from January to December were 2.538 million tons, an 18.8% year - on - year increase. This week, the spot import loss of aluminum ingots narrowed [122] - **Aluminum Ingot Import Sources**: In December 2025, aluminum ingot imports mainly came from Russia, Indonesia, India, Australia, etc., with the import volume from Russia increasing to 76% [125] - **Aluminum Products Exports and Recycled Aluminum Imports**: In December 2025, the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 545,000 tons, a 4.4% month - on - month decrease; the cumulative exports from January to December were 6.134 million tons, an 8.0% year - on - year decrease. In December 2025, the recycled aluminum imports were 194,000 tons, an increase of 31,000 tons month - on - month; the cumulative imports from January to December were 2.015 million tons, a 13.1% year - on - year increase [128] - **Bauxite and Alumina Imports and Exports**: In December 2025, China's bauxite imports were 14.673 million tons, with the proportion of imported ore at 72.5%. The cumulative bauxite imports from January to December were 200.532 million tons, a 26.3% year - on - year increase. In December 2025, China's alumina exports were 206,000 tons, a 9.3% year - on - year increase. The cumulative alumina exports from January to December were 2.548 million tons, a 42.7% year - on - year increase [131]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Pre - festival stocking sentiment has boosted the spot price increase beyond expectations. Near - month contracts are driven to fluctuate strongly, but the overall supply is still abundant. As the demand side is about to meet expectations, near - month contracts with post - festival attributes may mainly fluctuate. Future attention should be paid to the pressure after the rebound. The far - end has a long - term positive expectation due to peak production capacity, but after early profit, the implementation path is still uncertain. Pay attention to the selling pressure after over - valuation [11][12] - The trading strategy suggests a wait - and - see or range - trading approach for near - month contracts, and short - selling on rebounds for the 05 - 07 contracts [13] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Spot Market**: Last week, domestic egg prices were generally strong. Supported by Spring Festival stocking demand, traders' purchasing enthusiasm increased, the shipping speed in the production areas accelerated, and supply decreased. The market supply - demand relationship continued to tighten, supporting the egg price increase. There was a reduction in culled chickens during the week, and the chicken age rebounded. However, as egg prices reached a phased high, some areas' egg prices may decline slightly [11] - **Replenishment and Culling**: In December, the replenishment increased slightly by 0.1% month - on - month to 79.18 million, with a year - on - year decline of 13.9%. The replenishment sentiment continued to be sluggish, but with the improvement of market expectations, the chick price started to rise, indicating a slight improvement. Due to the previous low egg prices and continuous breeding losses, culling chickens increased, leading to a decline in chicken age. During the pre - Spring Festival stocking season, egg prices rose more than expected, and the breeding end returned to profitability, slowing down culling, and the chicken age stopped falling and rebounded to 490 days [11] - **Inventory and Trend**: As of the end of December, the inventory of laying hens was 1.344 billion, lower than the previous value and slightly lower than expected. The main reasons were the gradual decline in newly - laid hens and the higher - than - expected culling of chickens. However, the absolute quantity was still large, with a month - on - month decrease of 80 million compared to November and a year - on - year increase of 5% compared to 1.28 billion in December last year. It is expected that the inventory will gradually peak and decline in the future, dropping further to 1.286 billion by May next year, with a decline of 4.3%. The relative supply will gradually decrease, but the absolute supply is still relatively high [11] - **Demand Side**: As the Spring Festival approaches, the shipping speed in the downstream market continues to improve. However, as prices reach a high level, and with migrant workers returning home and external sales gradually turning into domestic sales, some traders' attitudes have become more cautious, and the purchase volume may decrease. The egg demand this week may first increase and then decrease [11] - **Trading Strategy**: Near - month contracts: wait - and - see or range - trading approach; 05 - 07 contracts: short - selling on rebounds, with a profit - loss ratio of 2:1 and a recommended cycle of 1.5 months, driven by inventory, spot, and seasonality, with a two - star recommendation [13] 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Spot Trend**: Last week, domestic egg prices were generally strong, supported by Spring Festival stocking demand. The supply - demand relationship tightened, and egg prices rose. Some areas' egg prices may decline slightly as they reach a high level. For example, the price of large - sized eggs in Heishan increased by 0.3 yuan to 3.5 yuan per catty, and in Guantao, it increased by 0.23 yuan to 3.56 yuan per catty [20] - **Basis and Spread**: Affected by the spot price increase, the basis has been significantly repaired. After the spot price rebounded, the near - month contracts were stronger, and the spread was more favorable for positive arbitrage [23] - **Culled Chicken Price**: As egg prices rebounded from a low level and breeding became profitable, farmers were reluctant to sell, and the culled chicken price and chicken age rebounded [26] - **Chick and Pullet Price**: With the improvement of market expectations, the chick price has started to rise [33] 3.3. Supply Side - **Laying Hen Replenishment**: In December, the replenishment increased slightly by 0.1% month - on - month to 79.18 million, with a year - on - year decline of 13.9%. The replenishment sentiment has improved slightly [33] - **Culled Chicken Slaughter**: Due to previous low egg prices and losses, culling chickens increased, and the chicken age declined. During the pre - Spring Festival stocking season, egg prices rose, and culling slowed down, with the chicken age rebounding to 490 days [36] - **Inventory and Trend**: As of the end of December, the inventory of laying hens was 1.344 billion, lower than expected. It is expected to gradually decline in the future, dropping to 1.286 billion by May next year, but the absolute supply is still high [38][41] 3.4. Demand Side - As the Spring Festival approaches, the downstream shipping speed is improving, but as prices rise and sales channels change, some traders are more cautious, and egg demand may first increase and then decrease this week [46] 3.5. Cost and Profit - The cost is lower year - on - year and rising month - on - month. After the spot price increase, the breeding profit has clearly recovered to the normal seasonal level [51] 3.6. Inventory Side - The inventory is basically at a normal or slightly higher seasonal level [56]

万林新（联系人） 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0020771 工业硅延续震荡；多晶硅成交清 淡，观望为主 工业硅&多晶硅周报 从业资格号：F03133967 2026/01/24 陈张滢（黑色建材组） 从业资格号：F03098415 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 多晶硅 02 期现市场 05 有机硅 03 工业硅 06 硅铝合金及出口 周度要点小结 ◆ 需求： 百川盈孚口径下多晶硅周度产量为2.04万吨，环比延续下行。 百川盈孚口径DMC产量4.29万吨，环比-0.07万吨。 1-12月，铝合金累计产量1929.70万吨，累计同比+315.60万吨或+19.55%。 1-12月，我国工业硅累计净出口70.84万吨，累计同比+1.35万吨或+1.94%。 ◆ 库存：截至2026/1/23，百川盈孚统计口径工业硅库存51.78万吨，环比+0.74万吨。其中，工厂库存26.20万吨，环比-0.10万吨；市场库存 19.10万吨，环比持平；已注册仓单库存6.49万吨，环比+0.84万吨。 产业链示意图 01 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 截至2026/1/ ...

万林新（联系人） 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0020771 事故扰动铁水复产，矿价震荡反复 铁矿石周报 从业资格号：F03133967 2026/01/24 陈张滢（黑色建材组） 从业资格号：F03098415 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 供给端 02 期现市场 05 需求端 03 库存 06 基差 01 周度评估及策略推荐 黑色产业链示意图 周度要点小结 ◆ 供应：全球铁矿石发运总量2929.8万吨，环比减少251.1万吨。澳洲巴西铁矿发运总量2246.6万吨，环比减少359.8万吨。澳洲发运量1688.0 万吨，环比减少243.6万吨，其中澳洲发往中国的量1389.7万吨，环比减少262.4万吨。巴西发运量558.6万吨，环比减少116.2万吨。中国47 港到港总量2897.7万吨，环比减少117.3万吨；中国45港到港总量2659.7万吨，环比减少260.7万吨。 ◆ 需求：日均铁水产量228.1万吨，环比上周增加0.09万吨。高炉炼铁产能利用率85.51%，环比上周增加0.03个百分点；钢厂盈利率40.69%， 环比上周增加0.8 ...

Report on Float Glass 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View Last week, the overall market sentiment was weak. Affected by insufficient orders from downstream deep - processing enterprises, low inventory - stocking willingness, and seasonal factors approaching the Spring Festival, terminal demand was weak. Most regions saw a slight accumulation or stability in inventory, and the overall de - stocking rhythm lacked sustainability. Currently, the float glass market lacks substantial positive drivers, and market participants are mostly in a wait - and - see attitude. It is expected that the short - term market will continue to show a narrow - range oscillating trend, with the main contract reference range of 1000 - 1175 yuan/ton [13][14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Evaluation and Strategy Recommendation - **Price**: As of January 23, 2026, the spot market price of float glass was 1010 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main glass contract was 1057 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 29 yuan/ton; the basis was - 47 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 19 yuan/ton [13][19]. - **Cost and Profit**: The weekly average profit of producing float glass with natural gas as fuel was - 158.69 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 5.71 yuan/ton; the low - end price of Henan LNG market was 3850 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged week - on - week. The weekly average profit of producing float glass with coal as fuel was - 65.11 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3.90 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of producing float glass with petroleum coke as fuel was - 1.78 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 5.71 yuan/ton [13][29][32]. - **Supply**: As of January 23, 2026, the weekly output of national float glass was 105.52 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.29 tons; the number of operating production lines was 212, remaining unchanged week - on - week, and the operating rate was 71.62%. The downstream deep - processing orders of float glass were 9.3 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.70 days; the operating rate of Low - e glass was 44.10%, remaining unchanged week - on - week [13][37][40]. - **Demand**: According to WIND data, from January to December 2025, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 88101.37 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 8.70%; in December, the single - month sales area of commercial housing was 9399.63 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 16.57%. According to CAAM data, in December, the production and sales of automobiles were 329.60/327.22 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year decrease of 2.09%/6.20%; from January to December, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles were 3453.10/3440.00 million vehicles [13][43][46]. - **Inventory**: As of January 23, 2026, the in - factory inventory of national float glass was 5321.58 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week increase of 20.28 million heavy boxes; the in - factory inventory in the Shahe area was 188.48 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week decrease of 1.84 million heavy boxes [13][51]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Glass Basis**: As of January 23, 2026, the spot market price of float glass was 1010 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main glass contract was 1057 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 29 yuan/ton; the basis was - 47 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 19 yuan/ton [19]. - **Glass Inter - month Spread**: As of January 23, 2026, the 01 - 05 spread of glass was 159 yuan/ton (+318), the 05 - 09 spread was - 105 yuan/ton (+2), the 09 - 01 spread was - 54 yuan/ton (-320), and the open interest reached 155.73 million lots [22]. 3.3 Profit and Cost - **Float Glass Profit and Cost**: The weekly average profit of producing float glass with natural gas as fuel was - 158.69 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 5.71 yuan/ton; the low - end price of Henan LNG market was 3850 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged week - on - week. The weekly average profit of producing float glass with coal as fuel was - 65.11 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3.90 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of producing float glass with petroleum coke as fuel was - 1.78 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 5.71 yuan/ton [29][32]. 3.4 Supply and Demand - **Glass Output and Operating Rate**: As of January 23, 2026, the weekly output of national float glass was 105.52 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.29 tons; the number of operating production lines was 212, remaining unchanged week - on - week, and the operating rate was 71.62% [37]. - **Glass Demand**: As of January 23, 2026, the downstream deep - processing orders of float glass were 9.3 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.70 days; the operating rate of Low - e glass was 44.10%, remaining unchanged week - on - week. From January to December 2025, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 88101.37 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 8.70%; in December, the single - month sales area of commercial housing was 9399.63 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 16.57%. In December, the production and sales of automobiles were 329.60/327.22 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year decrease of 2.09%/6.20%; from January to December, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles were 3453.10/3440.00 million vehicles [40][43][46]. 3.5 Inventory As of January 23, 2026, the in - factory inventory of national float glass was 5321.58 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week increase of 20.28 million heavy boxes, and the previous forecast value was 5050.8 million heavy boxes. The de - stocking market did not appear as expected. As the demand from processing plants came to an end, it was more difficult to reduce the factory inventory, and the estimated inventory for this week was 5300 million heavy boxes; the in - factory inventory in the Shahe area was 188.48 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week decrease of 1.84 million heavy boxes [51]. Report on Soda Ash 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View Last week, the supply - demand pattern of the soda ash market was generally loose. The supply side remained abundant, and the purchasing mentality of downstream enterprises became more cautious. However, the inventory of glass factories was low, and the pre - holiday restocking demand increased. The trading volume at the Shahe and Hebei delivery warehouses was more than 30,000 tons. Overall, the current market lacks substantial positive drivers, the futures market maintains a weak oscillating trend, which further affects the spot market and market sentiment. It is expected that the short - term soda ash market will continue to operate weakly, with the main contract reference range of 1120 - 1260 yuan/ton [62][63]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Evaluation and Strategy Recommendation - **Price**: As of January 23, 2026, the spot market price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1150 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 8 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main soda ash contract was 1185 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 8 yuan/ton; the basis was - 35 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 15 yuan/ton [62][68]. - **Cost and Profit**: As of January 23, 2026, the weekly average profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 168.3 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged week - on - week; the weekly average profit of the combined - soda process was - 108 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 4 yuan/ton. The price of steam coal arriving at Qinhuangdao Port was 693 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 11 yuan/ton; the low - end price of Henan LNG market was 3850 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged week - on - week [62][79][82]. - **Supply**: As of January 23, 2026, the weekly output of soda ash was 77.17 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.36 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 86.42%. The output of heavy soda ash was 41.29 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.09 tons; the output of light soda ash was 35.88 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.27 tons [62][90][93]. - **Demand**: As of January 23, 2026, the weekly output of national float glass was 105.52 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.29 tons; the number of operating production lines was 212, remaining unchanged week - on - week, and the operating rate was 71.62%. The apparent consumption of soda ash in December reached 2.95 million tons [62][96]. - **Inventory**: As of January 23, 2026, the in - factory inventory of soda ash was 1.5212 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0538 million tons; the available inventory days were 12.61 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.45 days. The in - factory inventory of heavy soda ash was 69.67 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.13 tons; the in - factory inventory of light soda ash was 82.45 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.25 tons [62][101][104]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Soda Ash Basis**: As of January 23, 2026, the spot market price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1150 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 8 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main soda ash contract was 1185 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 8 yuan/ton; the basis was - 35 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 15 yuan/ton [68]. - **Soda Ash Inter - month Spread**: As of January 23, 2026, the 01 - 05 spread of soda ash was 100 yuan/ton (+176), the 05 - 09 spread was - 62 yuan/ton (+3), the 09 - 01 spread was - 38 yuan/ton (-179), and the open interest reached 155.73 million lots [71]. 3.3 Profit and Cost - **Soda Ash Profit**: As of January 23, 2026, the weekly average profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 168.3 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged week - on - week; the weekly average profit of the combined - soda process was - 108 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 4 yuan/ton [79]. - **Raw Material Cost**: The price of steam coal arriving at Qinhuangdao Port was 693 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 11 yuan/ton; the low - end price of Henan LNG market was 3850 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged week - on - week. The price of raw salt in the northwest region was 215 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged week - on - week; the price of synthetic ammonia in Shandong was 2270 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 55 yuan/ton [82][85]. 3.4 Supply and Demand - **Soda Ash Output**: As of January 23, 2026, the weekly output of soda ash was 77.17 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.36 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 86.42%. The output of heavy soda ash was 41.29 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.09 tons; the output of light soda ash was 35.88 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.27 tons [90][93]. - **Soda Ash Demand**: As of January 23, 2026, the weekly output of national float glass was 105.52 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.29 tons; the number of operating production lines was 212, remaining unchanged week - on - week, and the operating rate was 71.62%. The apparent consumption of soda ash in December reached 2.95 million tons [96]. 3.5 Inventory As of January 23, 2026, the in - factory inventory of soda ash was 1.5212 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0538 million tons; the available inventory days were 12.61 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.45 days. The previous forecast value was 1.5727 million tons, and the de - stocking speed was slightly faster than expected; it is expected that the inventory will continue to decrease this week, with the estimated value of 1.48 million tons. The in - factory inventory of heavy soda ash was 69.67 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.13 tons; the in - factory inventory of light soda ash was 82.45 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.25 tons [101][104].

偏弱震荡， 维持观望 白糖周报 2026/01/24 13352843071 yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 杨泽元（农产品组） CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 03 国内市场情况 02 价差走势回顾 基本面评估 | 白糖基本面评估 | | 价差 | | | | 成本 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 基差 | 月差 | 产销区价差 | 原白价差 | 糖醇价差 | 成本 | | 数值 | 110元/吨 | 郑糖5-9：-15元/ 吨 | -110元/吨 | 94美元/吨 | -2.29美分/磅 | （3月合约）配额内： 4097元/吨 | | | | 原糖3-5：0.41 美分/磅 | | | | （3月合约）配额外： 5089元/吨 | | 多空评分 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0.5 | +0 | | 简评 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 产区价格走强 | 变化不大 | 原糖价格继续倒挂乙 醇价格 | 变化不大 | | 小结 | 短线观望。 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - This week, the prices of gold and silver were extremely strong, hitting new all - time highs. The price increase is driven by concerns about the stability of the US dollar credit and the Fed's monetary policy, and the upward trend has a solid macro - driving force. It is recommended to go long on dips in the precious metals strategy. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 1074 - 1300 yuan/gram, and that for the main contract of Shanghai Silver is 22612 - 28000 yuan/kilogram [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Market Outlook - **Weekly Summary**: This week, domestic markets saw Shanghai Gold rise 8.07% to 1115.64 yuan/gram and Shanghai Silver rise 11.04% to 24965.00 yuan/kilogram by Friday's daytime close. COMEX Gold rose 7.85% to 4983.10 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX Silver rose 11.98% to 103.26 US dollars/ounce. The 10 - year US Treasury yield was reported at 4.24%, and the US dollar index fell 1.88% to 97.51 [11]. - **Dollar Credit Impact**: The "island - grabbing storm" of the US regarding Greenland has severely damaged the US dollar's credit. European pension funds and a Canadian teacher retirement fund announced the reduction of US Treasury holdings. The long - term US Treasury demand has weakened, and gold, as a substitute for US Treasury bonds, has increased in allocation value. Poland's central bank approved a 150 - ton gold purchase plan [11]. - **Inflation and Economic Data**: The US Q3 PCE price index's quarterly - on - quarterly annualized value was 2.8%, lower than the expected 3.5%. The core PCE price index's quarterly - on - quarterly annualized value was 2.9%, in line with expectations. The US January S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 51.9, lower than the expected 52, and the service PMI was 52.5, lower than the expected 52.8. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in June and October [11]. - **Market Outlook**: The strong performance of gold and silver prices reflects concerns about the US dollar's credit and the Fed's monetary policy stability. The tightness of the silver spot market cannot be alleviated by the outflow of COMEX inventory. It is recommended to go long on dips, with the Shanghai Gold main contract's reference range at 1074 - 1300 yuan/gram and the Shanghai Silver main contract's at 22612 - 28000 yuan/kilogram [11]. 2. Market Review - **Price Changes**: This week, Shanghai Gold rose 8.07% to 1115.64 yuan/gram, Shanghai Silver rose 11.04% to 24965.00 yuan/kilogram, COMEX Gold rose 7.85% to 4983.10 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX Silver rose 11.98% to 103.26 US dollars/ounce [30]. - **Position Changes**: Shanghai Gold's total open interest rose 4.9% to 366,300 lots, and COMEX Gold's total open interest as of the latest report period rose 0.1% to 528,000 lots. Shanghai Silver's total open interest fell 0.36% to 708,800 lots, and COMEX Silver's total open interest as of the latest report period rose 0.33% to 152,000 lots [33][36]. - **ETF Holdings**: As of January 23, the total holdings of gold ETFs within the LSEG statistical scope were 2377.2 tons, and the total holdings of foreign - market silver ETFs were 29634.5 tons [41]. 3. Interest Rates and Liquidity - **US Treasury Yields**: The spread between the 10 - year and 2 - year US Treasury bonds and the yields of short - term US Treasury bonds are presented in the figures. The 10 - year US Treasury yield is also shown in relation to the real interest rate and inflation expectations [52][55]. - **Fed's Balance Sheet**: The Fed's balance sheet shows changes in assets and liabilities. For example, the Fed's holdings of securities increased by 19.77 billion US dollars, and the total liabilities increased by 28.79 billion US dollars [56]. 4. Macroeconomic Data - **CPI and PCE**: The US December CPI year - on - year value was 2.7%, in line with expectations, and the month - on - month value was 0.3%, also in line with expectations. The core CPI year - on - year value was 2.6%, lower than the expected 2.7%, and the month - on - month value was 0.2%, lower than the expected 0.3% [64]. - **Employment**: As of the week ending January 17, the number of initial jobless claims in the US was 200,000, lower than the expected 210,000 [67]. - **PMI and PPI**: The US December ISM manufacturing PMI was 47.9, lower than the expected 48.3 and the previous value of 48.2. The ISM non - manufacturing PMI was 54.4, higher than the expected 52.3 and the previous value of 52.6 [70]. - **New Home Data**: The annualized value of new home starts in the US in October was 1.246 million units, lower than the expected 1.325 million units and the previous value of 1.291 million units. The annualized value of building permits was 1.412 million units, higher than the expected 1.35 million units [73]. 5. Precious Metals Spreads - **Gold Basis**: The outer - market gold basis (London spot gold - COMEX gold) and the inner - market gold basis (AuT+D - SHFE gold) are presented, showing their respective changes [12]. - **Silver Basis**: The outer - market silver basis (London spot silver - COMEX silver) and the inner - market silver basis (AgT+D - SHFE silver) show their changes [12]. - **Internal - External Spreads**: The internal - external spreads of gold (Shanghai Gold and COMEX Gold) and silver (Shanghai Silver and COMEX Silver) are presented in the figures [83][85]. 6. Precious Metals Inventories - **Silver Inventories**: The combined silver inventories of the Shanghai Gold Exchange, the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and COMEX, as well as the inventories of the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the Shanghai Gold Exchange, are presented in the figures. The COMEX and LBMA silver inventories also show their trends [90][93]. - **Gold Inventories**: The COMEX and LBMA gold inventories are presented in the figures, showing their trends [95][97].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report suggests that the current valuation of methanol is relatively low, and its outlook for the next year is expected to improve marginally, with limited downside potential. Despite short - term negative pressures, the recent geopolitical instability in Iran has created certain geopolitical expectations, making it feasible to buy on dips, and this view is maintained from last week [16] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment - **Market Trend**: A chart of the methanol index is shown, but no specific trend analysis in text is provided [13] - **Factor Assessment and Strategy**: In terms of supply, overseas methanol production starts to slow down seasonally, while domestic production remains high; in terms of trade flow, the previous high - volume overseas shipments are arriving at ports, and current overseas shipments are seasonally decreasing, with a neutral outlook. In terms of demand, the operating rates of MTO, olefins, and formaldehyde remain high, but the low valuation of MTO lacks obvious driving forces, and downstream users are hesitant about the current methanol price, limiting its upside, also with a neutral outlook. Regarding inventory, the reduction of port inventory at high levels has slowed down, and it is expected to accumulate again later; factory inventory remains stable, with a neutral - to - bearish outlook. For cost, the replenishment of thermal coal has fallen short of expectations, and its price has started to decline from a high level; oil and gas prices maintain a weak oscillation with expected limited volatility, with a neutral outlook. The overall strategy is to buy on dips [16] 2. Spot and Futures Market - **Basis and Spread**: Charts of the methanol term structure, Jiangsu methanol price, methanol 01 basis, and methanol 1 - 5 spread are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [20][22][24] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Charts of the trading volume and open interest of the methanol 01 contract, as well as the total trading volume and open interest of methanol, are shown, but no specific analysis is provided [29][32] 3. Profit and Inventory - **Raw Material Prices**: Charts of IPE UK natural gas, NYMEX natural gas, and thermal coal prices in Ordos and Qinhuangdao are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [43][45] - **Production Profit**: Charts of the profit calculations for coal - based methanol production in Inner Mongolia, Southwest gas - based methanol production, and other regions are shown, but no specific analysis is provided [48][49] - **Port Inventory**: Charts of port inventory, East China port inventory, South China port inventory, and methanol social inventory are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [54][56] - **Regional Inventory**: Charts of factory inventory, factory inventory in the northwest region, East China regional inventory, and Ningbo port inventory are shown, but no specific analysis is provided [62][63] 4. Supply Side - **Shipping Schedule Monitoring**: Charts of global methanol shipments and arrivals, Middle East shipments, and Asia - Pacific arrivals are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [70] - **Upstream Production and Operating Rate**: Charts of domestic and overseas methanol operating rates and weekly production are shown, but no specific analysis is provided [76][74] - **Import Volume**: Charts of import volume, imports from Iran, Oman, and Saudi Arabia are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [78][81] - **Arrival Volume**: Charts of the arrival volume in East China, South China, and the whole of China are shown, but no specific analysis is provided [86][88] - **International Spread**: Charts of import profit, spreads between China and Southeast Asia, the US Gulf, and Europe are presented, with the regional spread showing weak ports and strong inland areas. Also, charts of freight rates are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [94][96][106] 5. Demand Side - **Methanol - to - Olefins**: Charts of olefin operating rates, Jiangsu and Zhejiang MTO operating rates, and the profits of Fude and Xingxing are presented, as well as the production profits of various PP production processes, MTO - related spreads. However, no specific analysis is provided [114][118][121] - **Traditional Downstream**: Charts of the capacity utilization rate of 1,4 - butanediol, the operating rates and profits of DMF, DMC, acetic acid, formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, MTBE, and the inventory of downstream methanol users are presented. Also, charts of the price ratios of methanol to related products are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [130][133][157] 6. Options - Related - **Methanol Options**: Charts of methanol option open interest, trading volume, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [161] 7. Industry Structure Diagram - **Methanol Industry Chain and Research Framework**: Charts of the methanol industry chain and the methanol research framework analysis mind - map are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [165][167]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Although the visible inventory of lead ore has further increased and is higher than the same period in previous years, the high by - product profit suppresses the further decline of lead concentrate TC. The primary smelting start - up rate has slightly declined but remains at a high level, while the secondary smelting start - up rate has increased marginally. The finished product inventories of primary and secondary smelting plants and the social inventory of lead ingots have all increased, indicating a weak industrial situation. However, it is worth noting that the lead price has declined with the ebb of the non - ferrous metal sentiment. After the winter temperature drops, the transportation of waste batteries is blocked, the raw materials for secondary smelting have tightened, and the secondary smelting profit calculated based on spot orders is marginally under pressure. It is expected that the surplus of lead ingots will decrease marginally [11] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment - Price Review: Last Friday, the Shanghai Lead Index closed down 0.23% at 17,106 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 103,000 lots. As of 15:00 last Friday, LME Lead 3S fell 6 to 2,026 dollars/ton compared with the same period of the previous day, with a total position of 167,200 lots. The average price of SMM 1 lead ingots was 16,950 yuan/ton, the average price of secondary refined lead was 16,825 yuan/ton, the refined - scrap price difference was 125 yuan/ton, and the average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,025 yuan/ton [11] - Domestic Structure: The futures inventory of lead ingots on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 28,000 tons. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets on January 22 was 34,200 tons, an increase of 4,800 tons from January 19. The domestic primary basis was - 140 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - month contract was - 60 yuan/ton. Overseas Structure: The LME lead ingot inventory was 218,400 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 31,400 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was - 45.02 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 127.1 dollars/ton. Cross - market Structure: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen Shanghai - London ratio was 1.219, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was 201.44 yuan/ton [11] - Industrial Data: At the primary end, the port inventory of lead concentrate was 49,000 tons, and the factory inventory was 493,000 tons. The import TC of lead concentrate was - 150 dollars/dry ton, and the domestic TC of lead concentrate was 250 yuan/metal ton. The primary smelting start - up rate was 66.9%, and the factory inventory of primary lead ingots was 40,400 tons. At the secondary end, the waste lead inventory was 93,000 tons, the secondary smelting start - up rate was 49%, and the factory inventory of secondary lead ingots was 22,800 tons. At the demand end, the start - up rate of lead - acid batteries was 70.77% [11] 2. Primary Supply - Import Data: In December 2025, the net import of lead concentrate was 149,200 physical tons, with a year - on - year change of 24.63% and a month - on - month change of 35.87%. From January to December, the cumulative net import of lead concentrate was 1,425,300 physical tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 15.11%. In December 2025, the net import of silver concentrate was 239,300 physical tons, with a year - on - year change of 89.27% and a month - on - month change of 31.21%. From January to December, the cumulative net import of silver concentrate was 1,931,000 physical tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 13.6% [15] - Production Data: In December 2025, China's lead concentrate production was 126,300 metal tons, with a year - on - year change of 4.04% and a month - on - month change of - 7.54%. From January to December, the total production of lead concentrate was 1,658,200 metal tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 9.89%. In December 2025, the net import of lead - containing ores was 185,200 metal tons, with a year - on - year change of 51.34% and a month - on - month change of 33.42%. From January to December, the cumulative net import of lead - containing ores was 1,627,700 metal tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 14.39% [17] - Total Supply: In December 2025, the total supply of lead concentrate in China was 311,500 metal tons, with a year - on - year change of 27.78% and a month - on - month change of 13.11%. From January to December, the cumulative supply of lead concentrate was 3,285,900 metal tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 12.07%. In October 2025, the overseas lead ore production was 256,800 tons, with a year - on - year change of - 3.39% and a month - on - month change of 6.60%. From January to October, the total production of lead ore was 2,407,700 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of - 2.35% [19] - Inventory and TC: The port inventory of lead concentrate was 49,000 tons, and the factory inventory was 493,000 tons. The import TC of lead concentrate was - 150 dollars/dry ton, and the domestic TC of lead concentrate was 250 yuan/metal ton [21][23] - Smelting: The primary smelting start - up rate was 66.9%, and the factory inventory of primary lead ingots was 40,400 tons. In December 2025, China's primary lead production was 332,700 tons, with a year - on - year change of 1.56% and a month - on - month change of 1.56%. From January to December, the total production of primary lead ingots was 3,847,200 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 6.32% [26] 3. Secondary Supply - Raw Materials and Production: The waste lead inventory at the secondary end was 93,000 tons. The secondary smelting start - up rate was 49%, and the factory inventory of secondary lead ingots was 22,800 tons. In December 2025, China's secondary lead production was 354,500 tons, with a year - on - year change of 10.3% and a month - on - month change of - 5.04%. From January to December, the total production of secondary lead ingots was 3,962,900 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.52% [31][33] - Trade and Total Supply: In December 2025, the net export of lead ingots was - 28,600 tons, with a year - on - year change of 111.23% and a month - on - month change of 25.65%. From January to December, the cumulative net export of lead ingots was - 146,700 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of - 22.13%. In December 2025, the total domestic supply of lead ingots was 715,800 tons, with a year - on - year change of 8.04% and a month - on - month change of - 1.09%. From January to December, the cumulative domestic supply of lead ingots was 7,956,800 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.72% [35] 4. Demand Analysis - Battery Demand: At the demand end, the start - up rate of lead - acid batteries was 70.77%. In December 2025, the apparent domestic demand for lead ingots was 719,800 tons, with a year - on - year change of 5.09% and a month - on - month change of - 0.44%. From January to December, the cumulative apparent domestic demand for lead ingots was 7,969,100 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.27% [40] - Battery Exports: In December 2025, the net export volume of lead - containing lead - acid batteries was 1,664,900 units, with a year - on - year change of - 35.22% and a month - on - month change of 8.81%. From January to December, the total net export of batteries was 213 million units, with a cumulative net export year - on - year change of - 13.06% [43] - Inventory: In December 2025, the finished product inventory days of lead - acid batteries in factories increased from 20.9 days to 21.5 days, and the inventory days of lead - acid batteries in dealers increased from 40.7 days to 43.6 days [45] - Terminal Demand: In the two - wheeled vehicle sector, although the decline in electric bicycle production directly dragged down the new installation demand, the continuous growth of delivery scenarios such as express delivery and takeaway drove the improvement of the new installation consumption of electric two - and three - wheeled vehicles. In the automobile sector, the contribution of lead demand is expected to maintain stable growth. Although new energy vehicles are gradually replacing lead - acid start - up batteries, the high stock of existing vehicles still provides support for lead consumption. In the base station sector, the increasing number of communication base stations and 5G base stations drives the steady increase in the demand for lead - acid batteries [50][52][55] 5. Supply - Demand Inventory - Domestic Balance: In December 2025, the domestic supply - demand gap of lead ingots was a shortage of 4,000 tons. From January to December, the cumulative domestic supply - demand gap of lead ingots was a shortage of 12,400 tons [64] - Overseas Balance: In October 2025, the overseas refined lead supply - demand gap was a surplus of 5,400 tons. From January to October, the cumulative overseas refined lead supply - demand gap was a surplus of 98,400 tons [67] 6. Price Outlook - Domestic Structure: The futures inventory of lead ingots on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 28,000 tons. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets on January 22 was 34,200 tons, an increase of 4,800 tons from January 19. The domestic primary basis was - 140 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - month contract was - 60 yuan/ton [72] - Overseas Structure: The LME lead ingot inventory was 218,400 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 31,400 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was - 45.02 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 127.1 dollars/ton [74] - Cross - Market Structure: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen Shanghai - London ratio was 1.215, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was 192.55 yuan/ton [77] - Position: The net long position of the top 20 in Shanghai Lead decreased, the net long position of investment funds in LME Lead increased, and the net short position of commercial enterprises increased. From the perspective of positions, it is short - term bearish [80]