1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy - chemical sector includes energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others. Strategies suggest constructing option combination strategies mainly as sellers, along with spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [3][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - Various energy - chemical option underlying futures have different price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes. For example, the latest price of crude oil (SC2511) is 483, with a rise of 1 and a rise - fall rate of 0.25%, trading volume of 2.70 million lots (a decrease of 0.85 million lots), and open interest of 2.03 million lots (an increase of 0.12 million lots) [4]. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - Different option varieties have different volume and open interest PCR values and their changes, which can be used to analyze the strength and turning points of the option underlying market. For instance, the volume PCR of crude oil is 0.97 (a decrease of 0.01), and the open interest PCR is 0.70 (a decrease of 0.04) [5]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of different option varieties can be seen from the strike prices of the maximum open interest of call and put options. For example, the pressure level of crude oil is 600 and the support level is 470 [6]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility of different option varieties shows different characteristics. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of crude oil is 29.06%, the weighted implied volatility is 30.14% (a decrease of 0.77%), and the annual average is 35.85% [7]. 3.5 Strategies and Recommendations for Different Option Varieties 3.5.1 Energy - related Options (Crude Oil, LPG) - **Crude Oil**: - **Fundamentals**: Geopolitical short - term disturbances, long - term supply - demand negatives, and concerns about employment and the economy. - **Market Analysis**: Weak and bearish overall since July. - **Option Factors**: Implied volatility around the mean, open interest PCR below 0.80, pressure level at 600, and support level at 470. - **Strategies**: Construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy for volatility, and a long - collar strategy for spot hedging [8]. - **LPG**: - **Fundamentals**: Loose domestic supply, low summer demand. - **Market Analysis**: Weak and bearish since July. - **Option Factors**: Implied volatility back to the mean, open interest PCR around 0.60, pressure level at 4500, and support level at 4200. - **Strategies**: Similar to crude oil, construct a short - biased option combination strategy and a long - collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. 3.5.2 Alcohol - related Options (Methanol, Ethylene Glycol) - **Methanol**: - **Fundamentals**: Domestic production increased, capacity utilization rose. - **Market Analysis**: Weak and bearish overall. - **Option Factors**: Implied volatility below the mean, open interest PCR below 0.80, pressure level at 2350, and support level at 2275. - **Strategies**: Construct a bear - spread strategy for direction, a short - biased option combination strategy for volatility, and a long - collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: - **Fundamentals**: Main port inventory decreased. - **Market Analysis**: Weak with pressure. - **Option Factors**: Implied volatility below the mean, open interest PCR below 0.60, pressure level at 4450, and support level at 4350. - **Strategies**: Construct a short - volatility strategy and a long - collar strategy for spot hedging [11]. 3.5.3 Polyolefin - related Options (Polypropylene, PVC, Plastic, Styrene) - **Polypropylene**: - **Fundamentals**: Increased maintenance losses. - **Market Analysis**: Weak and bearish. - **Option Factors**: Implied volatility below the mean, open interest PCR around 0.60, pressure level at 7300, and support level at 6900. - **Strategies**: A long - collar strategy for spot hedging [11]. 3.5.4 Rubber - related Options (Rubber, Synthetic Rubber) - **Rubber**: - **Fundamentals**: Tire production load decreased. - **Market Analysis**: Gradually recovering. - **Option Factors**: Implied volatility around the mean, open interest PCR below 0.60, pressure level at 18000, and support level at 15750. - **Strategies**: Construct a neutral - biased call + put option combination strategy [12]. 3.5.5 Polyester - related Options (PX, PTA, Short - fiber, Bottle - chip) - **PTA**: - **Fundamentals**: Stable supply - demand, low inventory and processing fees. - **Market Analysis**: Weak and bearish. - **Option Factors**: Implied volatility above the mean, open interest PCR around 0.60, pressure level at 5000, and support level at 4500. - **Strategies**: Construct a short - biased option combination strategy [12]. 3.5.6 Alkali - related Options (Caustic Soda, Soda Ash) - **Caustic Soda**: - **Fundamentals**: Some devices' load changes. - **Market Analysis**: Weak with pressure. - **Option Factors**: High - level implied volatility, open interest PCR below 0.80, pressure level at 3000, and support level at 2480. - **Strategies**: A long - collar strategy for spot hedging [13]. - **Soda Ash**: - **Fundamentals**: Supply recovery, price weakening. - **Market Analysis**: Weak and consolidating at a low level. - **Option Factors**: High - level implied volatility, open interest PCR below 0.60, pressure level at 1640, and support level at 1160. - **Strategies**: Construct a short - volatility combination strategy and a long - collar strategy for spot hedging [13]. 3.5.7 Urea Options - **Fundamentals**: Weak supply - demand, slow new - order transactions. - **Market Analysis**: Weak and fluctuating at a low level. - **Option Factors**: Implied volatility around the historical mean, open interest PCR below 0.60, pressure level at 1900, and support level at 1640. - **Strategies**: Construct a short - biased option combination strategy and a long - collar strategy for spot hedging [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai Composite Index, large-cap blue-chip stocks, small and medium-cap stocks, and ChiNext stocks showed a market trend of gradually declining in the bullish direction, then rebounding and rising [3]. - The implied volatility of financial options gradually increased and fluctuated at a relatively high level of the mean [3]. - For ETF options, it is suitable to construct a bullish buyer strategy and a bull spread strategy of call options; for index options, it is suitable to construct a bullish seller strategy, a bull spread strategy of call options, and an arbitrage strategy between the synthetic long futures of options and the short futures [3]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Market Short - Comments - The Shanghai Composite Index, large - cap blue - chip stocks, small and medium - cap stocks, and ChiNext stocks showed a market trend of decline after rising in the bullish direction and then rebounded and rose [3]. 3.2 Financial Market Important Indexes | Index Name | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Trading Volume (billion yuan) | Volume Change (billion yuan) | PE | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index | 3,807.29 | - 19.55 | - 0.51% | 9,178 | - 1,081 | 16.31 | | Shenzhen Component Index | 12,510.60 | - 156.24 | - 1.23% | 12,007 | - 1,921 | 29.69 | | SSE 50 | 2,928.63 | - 11.25 | - 0.38% | 1,392 | - 145 | 11.75 | | CSI 300 | 4,436.26 | - 31.31 | - 0.70% | 5,629 | - 1,208 | 13.90 | | CSI 500 | 6,928.97 | - 63.15 | - 0.90% | 3,948 | - 606 | 33.21 | | CSI 1000 | 7,226.03 | - 85.01 | - 1.16% | 4,319 | - 636 | 45.81 | [4] 3.3 Option - Underlying ETF Market - Various ETFs showed different price changes and trading volume changes, with most showing price declines and some showing significant trading volume increases or decreases [5]. 3.4 Option Factors - Volume and Position PCR - Different option varieties had different volume and position PCR values and their changes, which can be used to analyze the strength and turning points of the option - underlying market [6]. 3.5 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Points - For different option varieties, the pressure points and support points were determined from the perspective of the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options [8]. 3.6 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility of different option varieties showed different levels and changes, with some maintaining at a relatively high level and some showing significant changes [10]. 3.7 Strategy and Suggestions 3.7.1 Overall Strategy - The financial options sector is divided into large - cap blue - chip stocks, small and medium - sized boards, and the ChiNext board. Strategies are provided for selected varieties in each sector [12]. 3.7.2 Sector - Specific Strategies - **Financial Stocks Sector (SSE 50ETF, SSE 50)**: The SSE 50ETF showed a bullish trend with support below. Implied volatility was above the mean, and the position PCR indicated a sideways market. Strategies included a short - volatility seller strategy and a long - spot covered call strategy [13]. - **Large - Cap Blue - Chip Stocks Sector (SSE 300ETF, Shenzhen 300ETF, CSI 300)**: These showed a bullish trend with large fluctuations. Implied volatility was above the mean, and the position PCR indicated a sideways - bullish market. Strategies included a bull spread strategy of call options, a short - volatility strategy, and a long - spot covered call strategy [13]. - **Large - and Medium - Sized Stocks Sector (Shenzhen 100ETF)**: It showed a bullish trend. Implied volatility was above the mean, and the position PCR indicated a sideways - strong market. Strategies included a bull spread strategy of call options, a short - volatility strategy, and a long - spot covered call strategy [14]. - **Small and Medium - Sized Stocks Sector (SSE 500ETF, Shenzhen 500ETF, CSI 1000)**: These showed a bullish trend with large fluctuations. Implied volatility was above the mean, and the position PCR indicated a sideways - bullish market. Strategies included a bull spread strategy of call options, a short - volatility strategy for some, and a long - spot covered call strategy [14][15]. - **ChiNext Board (ChiNext ETF, Huaxia Kechuang 50ETF, E Fund Kechuang 50ETF)**: The ChiNext ETF showed a bullish trend with high - level fluctuations. Implied volatility was at a relatively high historical level, and the position PCR indicated a bullish trend. Strategies included a bull spread strategy of call options, a short - volatility strategy, and a long - spot covered call strategy [15]. 3.8 Option Charts - The report provided various option charts for different option varieties, including price trends, trading volume, open interest, PCR, implied volatility, and other information, which can be used for in - depth analysis of the option market [16 - 119].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The metal sector is divided into non - ferrous metals, precious metals, and black metals. Different trading strategies are recommended for various metal options based on their market conditions, including directional, volatility, and spot hedging strategies [2][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The latest prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes of various metal futures contracts are presented. For example, the latest price of copper (CU2510) is 79,600, down 110 (-0.14%), with a trading volume of 5.07 million lots and a decrease of 4.02 million lots, and an open interest of 17.49 million lots and a decrease of 0.34 million lots [3]. 3.2 Option Factor - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The volume and open interest PCR data of different metal options are provided. For instance, the volume PCR of copper options is 0.46, down 0.06, and the open interest PCR is 0.71, down 0.01 [4]. 3.3 Option Factor - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of different metal options are analyzed. For example, the pressure level of copper is 82,000 and the support level is 80,000 [5]. 3.4 Option Factor - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility data of different metal options are given. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of copper is 10.64%, and the weighted implied volatility is 15.30%, down 0.19% [6]. 3.5 Strategy and Recommendations 3.5.1 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: - Fundamental analysis shows stable inventories in Shanghai and LME, and increasing inventories in COMEX. - Market analysis indicates a bullish trend with support at the bottom. - Option factor research shows that implied volatility fluctuates around the historical average, and the open interest PCR indicates some pressure above. - Strategies include constructing a short - volatility seller option portfolio and a spot hedging strategy [7]. - **Aluminum/Alumina**: - Aluminum fundamentals show inventory changes. The market is in a bullish trend. - Option factors show that implied volatility is below the historical average, and the open interest PCR indicates strong support below. - Strategies include a bullish spread option strategy, a short - neutral call + put option portfolio strategy, and a spot collar strategy [9]. - **Zinc/Lead**: - Zinc fundamentals involve TC prices and inventory data. The market shows a downward trend after reaching a high. - Option factors show that implied volatility is below the historical average, and the open interest PCR indicates increasing pressure above. - Strategies include a short - neutral call + put option portfolio strategy and a spot collar strategy [9]. - **Nickel**: - Nickel fundamentals show price and supply - related information. The market is in a wide - range shock with downward pressure. - Option factors show that implied volatility is at a relatively high level, and the open interest PCR indicates increasing short - selling power. - Strategies include a short - bearish call + put option portfolio strategy and a spot covered call strategy [10]. - **Tin**: - Tin fundamentals show inventory and processing fee information. The market is in a short - term high - level shock with downward pressure. - Option factors show that implied volatility is at a relatively low level, and the open interest PCR indicates a range - bound market. - Strategies include a short - volatility strategy and a spot collar strategy [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: - Lithium carbonate fundamentals show production and inventory changes. The market is in a downward trend with high volatility. - Option factors show that implied volatility has risen rapidly to a high level, and the open interest PCR is below 0.6. - Strategies include a short - bearish call + put option portfolio strategy and a spot hedging strategy [11]. 3.5.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: - Gold fundamentals show an increase in foreign exchange reserves. The market is in a bullish trend. - Option factors show that implied volatility is around the historical average, and the open interest PCR indicates strong support below. - Strategies include a bullish spread option strategy, a short - bullish volatility seller option portfolio strategy, and a spot hedging strategy [12]. 3.5.3 Black Metals - **Rebar**: - Rebar fundamentals show capacity utilization data. The market is in a weak consolidation with downward pressure. - Option factors show that implied volatility is at a relatively high level, and the open interest PCR indicates strong short - selling pressure above. - Strategies include a short - bearish call + put option portfolio strategy and a spot covered call strategy [13]. - **Iron Ore**: - Iron ore fundamentals show inventory and consumption data. The market is in a range - bound shock with support at the bottom. - Option factors show that implied volatility is above the historical average, and the open interest PCR is around 1.0. - Strategies include a short - neutral call + put option portfolio strategy and a spot collar strategy [13]. - **Ferroalloys**: - Manganese silicon fundamentals show production data. The market is in a weak bearish trend. - Option factors show that implied volatility has risen rapidly to a high level, and the open interest PCR is below 0.6. - Strategies include a short - volatility strategy [14]. - **Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon**: - Industrial silicon fundamentals show supply and demand information. The market is in a volatile recovery with downward pressure. - Option factors show that implied volatility has risen to a relatively high level, and the open interest PCR is below 0.6. - Strategies include a short - volatility call + put option portfolio strategy and a spot hedging strategy [14]. - **Glass**: - Glass fundamentals show supply and demand data. The market is in a weak trend with downward pressure. - Option factors show that implied volatility is at a relatively high level, and the open interest PCR is above 1.0. - Strategies include a short - volatility call + put option portfolio strategy and a spot collar strategy [15].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The short - term index faces adjustment pressure, but the medium - and long - term strategy for the capital market is to buy on dips [3] - The bond market is expected to be in a short - term shock pattern, and interest rates have downward space in the medium - and long term [6] - The precious metals sector is recommended to maintain a strategy of buying on dips, with a focus on the upward potential of silver prices [8] - Most non - ferrous metals are affected by various factors such as supply and demand, policies, and macro - economic conditions, and their prices show different trends [10][12][13] - The steel market is under pressure due to weak demand and high inventory, while the iron ore price is expected to be volatile in the short term [25][27] - Glass and soda ash prices are expected to be volatile in the short term, with the price center of soda ash likely to rise in the medium - and long term [28][29] - The prices of manganese silicon and silicon iron are expected to follow the black - sector sentiment and are recommended for a wait - and - see approach [32] - Industrial silicon and polysilicon prices are affected by supply - demand and market sentiment, with uncertain trends [34][36] - The rubber market has different views from bulls and bears, and the medium - term strategy is bullish while the short - term is neutral [39][41] - The oil market is recommended for long - position allocation, as the fundamentals support the current price [42] - Methanol, urea, and other chemical products have different supply - demand situations, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed [43][44] - In the agricultural product market, the prices of pigs, eggs, and other products are affected by supply and demand, and different trading suggestions are given [56][57] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro - financial Category Stock Index - News includes the expected resumption of production at Ningde Times' lithium mine, Hangzhou's AI industry plan, the registration of Zhongke Cambrian's stock issuance, and the downward revision of US non - farm employment data [2] - The short - term index faces adjustment pressure due to the divergence in high - level hot sectors and shrinking trading volume, but the medium - and long - term strategy is to buy on dips [3] Treasury Bond - On Tuesday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS all declined. News includes the market regulator's约谈 of food - delivery platforms and Japan's possible adjustment of long - term bond purchases [4] - The bond market is expected to be in a short - term shock pattern, and interest rates have downward space in the medium - and long term, but the stock - bond seesaw effect needs attention [6] Precious Metals - The prices of Shanghai gold and silver show different trends. The downward revision of US non - farm employment data strengthens the expectation of the Fed's easing policy [7] - The precious metals sector is recommended to maintain a strategy of buying on dips, with a focus on the upward potential of silver prices [8] Non - ferrous Metals Category Copper - The copper price is volatile due to the downward revision of US employment data and supply disruptions. The domestic copper production is expected to decline marginally, and the copper price has strong support [10] Aluminum - The aluminum price rises due to factors such as the increase in oil prices and LME cancelled warrants. The price is expected to fluctuate between macro - expectations and fundamental realities [12] Zinc - The zinc market shows an over - supply situation, with the domestic supply being loose and the downstream demand weak. The short - term price is expected to be in a low - level shock pattern [13] Lead - The lead industry has a situation of weak supply and demand. The supply is expected to narrow marginally, and the price has some support, but there is also a risk of decline [14][15] Nickel - The nickel price is affected by macro - factors and industry fundamentals. The short - term strategy is to buy on dips, as the price has limited downward space and potential upward momentum [16] Tin - The tin price follows the decline of the non - ferrous sector. Supply is tight, and demand is weak. The short - term price is expected to be volatile [17] Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate declines. The expected resumption of production at Ningde Times' lithium mine may suppress the price [18] Alumina - The alumina index declines. The short - term strategy is to wait and see, as the price is affected by factors such as overseas ore supply and the Fed's interest - rate policy [20] Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel price shows a narrow - range shock pattern. The 304 cold - rolled price is stable, while the 304 hot - rolled price rises slightly due to supply shortages [21] Casting Aluminum Alloy - The price of casting aluminum alloy is expected to remain high in the short term, as the market is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season and cost support is strong [22] Black Building Materials Category Steel - The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil decline. The steel market is under pressure due to weak demand, high inventory, and strong raw - material prices [24][25] Iron Ore - The iron - ore price rises. The supply is affected by port maintenance, and the demand is affected by steel - mill production. The short - term price is expected to be volatile [26][27] Glass and Soda Ash - The glass price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, and its long - term trend depends on policy and demand. The soda - ash price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the price center likely to rise in the medium - and long term [28][29] Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron - The prices of manganese silicon and silicon iron are in a range - bound pattern. They are expected to follow the black - sector sentiment, and the short - term strategy is to wait and see [30][32] Industrial Silicon - The industrial - silicon price is expected to be volatile. It is affected by supply - demand and market sentiment, and the price trend is uncertain [34] Polysilicon - The polysilicon price declines. The market is in a "weak reality, strong expectation" situation, and the price is affected by capacity - integration policies and downstream price - passing progress [35][36] Energy and Chemical Category Rubber - The NR and RU prices decline. The market has different views from bulls and bears. The medium - term strategy is bullish, while the short - term is neutral [38][39][41] Crude Oil - The oil price rises. The market maintains a long - position allocation strategy, as the fundamentals support the current price [42] Methanol - The methanol price declines. The supply pressure is high in the short term, but the market expectation is changing, and the strategy is to buy on dips [43] Urea - The urea price declines. The supply pressure is relieved, but the demand is weak. The price is expected to be in a range - bound pattern, and the strategy is to buy on dips [44] Styrene - The styrene price shows a situation where the spot price is stable and the futures price declines. The long - term BZN spread is expected to repair, and the price may rebound after the inventory decline [45] PVC - The PVC price declines. The market has a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the strategy is to short on rallies with caution [47] Ethylene Glycol - The ethylene - glycol price declines. The supply is high, and the inventory is expected to increase in the medium term. The short - term valuation is supported, but there is a downward pressure in the medium term [48] PTA - The PTA price declines. The supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is improving. The strategy is to follow PX and buy on dips [49][50] p - Xylene - The p - xylene price declines. The load is high, and the downstream demand is improving. The valuation is neutral - low, and the strategy is to follow crude oil and buy on dips [51] Polyethylene PE - The PE price is stable. The market expects favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance, and the price is expected to oscillate upward [52] Polypropylene PP - The PP price declines. The supply pressure is high, and the demand is weak. The strategy is to buy on dips for the LL - PP2601 contract [53][54] Agricultural Products Category Live Pig - The domestic pig price continues to decline. The supply is expected to be high in September, but there are potential supporting factors. The strategy is to pay attention to low - level rebounds and short - sell after rebounds [56] Egg - The egg price is mostly stable. The supply is large, but the supply pressure decreases marginally. The strategy is to wait and see, and consider short - term long - positions after price declines [57] Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - The prices of US soybeans and domestic soybean meal decline. The supply of global protein raw materials is excessive, and the market is expected to be in a range - bound pattern. The strategy is to buy on dips at the low end of the cost range [58][60] Edible Oil - The prices of domestic edible oils decline. The demand and low inventory in Southeast Asia provide support, but the high inventory and valuation in the domestic market suppress the buying sentiment. The strategy is to buy on dips after price declines [62][63] Sugar - The Zhengzhou sugar price oscillates. The domestic and foreign markets are mostly bearish, and the sugar price is expected to decline, but the downward space depends on the Brazilian production [64] Cotton - The Zhengzhou cotton price declines. The downstream consumption is average, and there is an expectation of a good harvest. The short - term cotton price is expected to be volatile [65][66]

有色金属日报 2025-9-10 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 铜 有色金属小组 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 美国向下修正就业数据，美元指数走强，矿端供应扰动下铜价震荡，昨日伦铜收涨 0.1%至 9916 美元 /吨，沪铜主力合约收至 79600 元/吨。产业层面，昨日 LME 铜库存减少 550 至 155275 吨，注销仓单 比例下滑至 14.1%，Cash/3M 贴水 78 美元/吨。国内方面，昨日上期所铜仓单微 ...

钟俊轩 昨夜公布的美国非农修正数据低于预期，美国劳动力市场的弱化得到确认，进一步加大了市场 对于联储后续宽松政策的预期。 贵金属研究员 从业资格号：F03112694 交易咨询号：Z0022090 电话：0755-23375141 邮箱： zhongjunxuan@wkqh.cn 美国劳工统计局数据指出，在 2024 年 4 月至 2025 年 3 月的区间内，美国私人部门非农就业数 据下修 88 万人，政府部门就业下修 3.1 万人。总体非农共计下修 91.1 万人，大幅高于市场预 期的 70 万人、贝森特预计的 80 万人以及前值的 59.8 万人。 报 3661.80 美元/盎司，COMEX 银跌 0.12 %，报 41.29 美元/盎司； 美国 10 年期国债收益率 报 4.08%，美元指数报 97.75 ； 市场展望： 贵金属日报 2025-09-10 贵金属 此外，参议院银行委员会将在当地时间周三就美联储理事米兰的提名进行投票。预计委员会将 通过投票并将该事项交由参议院进行集体表决。因此，米兰大概率在下周议息会议前正式就任 联储理事，并将具备投票权。米兰是特朗普经济政策团队的重要成员，米兰的就任将 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market has entered the peak season, but demand is weak, with steel mill profits gradually shrinking and the weak characteristics of the futures market deepening. If demand cannot be effectively repaired, prices may further decline. The raw material side is more stable than the finished product side, and attention should be paid to the potential impact of safety inspections and environmental protection restrictions. It is recommended to focus on the recovery rhythm of terminal demand and the support of the cost side for finished product prices [4]. - The speculation about the "Anti - involution" policy in the commodity market is more of a price rebound due to emotional fluctuations after prices fall to a phased low. Whether it can continue to rise depends on the actual implementation and effect of the policy. The trading focus of the black sector before mid - October will be on the verification of real - end demand. There is a risk of demand decline, which will put pressure on prices [10][11]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3123 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton (-0.28%) from the previous trading day, with registered warehouse receipts increasing by 10,517 tons and the main contract position decreasing by 19,825 lots. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3349 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton (-0.08%), with registered warehouse receipts unchanged and the main contract position increasing by 5579 lots. In the spot market, rebar prices in Tianjin decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled coil prices in Lecong increased by 10 yuan/ton [3]. - **Market Analysis**: The overall atmosphere in the commodity market is good, but the finished product prices are under pressure. The policy of Guinea may lead to tight supply of raw materials. Rebar apparent demand is weak, and the inventory accumulation pressure increases; hot - rolled coil production reduction is large, apparent demand decreases significantly, and the overall demand is neutral to weak, with inventory continuously rising. If demand cannot be effectively repaired, prices may further decline [4]. Iron Ore - **Price and Position Data**: The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 805.00 yuan/ton, up 1.64% (+13.00), with the position increasing by 29,080 lots to 541,200 lots. The weighted position was 853,600 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 799 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 44.96 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.29% [6]. - **Market Analysis**: Affected by the news from Guinea, the iron ore futures market rose in the morning and then fell back. Overseas iron ore shipments decreased significantly, and the recent arrival volume decreased slightly. The average daily molten iron output decreased by 112,900 tons. The inventory of ports increased, and the inventory of steel mills decreased. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [7]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Price and Position Data**: The main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) closed down 0.03% at 5838 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, with a premium of 52 yuan/ton over the futures. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF511) closed down 0.07% at 5620 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Tianjin was 5750 yuan/ton, with a premium of 130 yuan/ton over the futures [9]. - **Market Analysis**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are in a range - bound pattern. The short - term speculative arbitrage space is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see. The "Anti - involution" policy may bring price fluctuations, but the trading focus in the future will be on the verification of real - end demand. The fundamentals of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are not ideal, and they are likely to follow the sentiment of the black sector [9][10][11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price and Position Data**: The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2511) closed at 8410 yuan/ton, down 1.41% (-120), with the weighted position decreasing by 5663 lots to 491,242 lots. The main contract of polysilicon (PS2511) closed at 53,520 yuan/ton, down 3.93% (-2190), with the weighted position decreasing by 18,889 lots to 311,131 lots [13][15]. - **Market Analysis**: The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate, and it is affected by downstream capacity integration and "Anti - involution" sentiment. Polysilicon is in a "weak reality, strong expectation" pattern, and the short - term price is affected by capacity integration policies and downstream price - passing progress. Attention should be paid to risk control [14][16]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Price and Inventory Data**: The spot price of glass in Shahe increased by 22 yuan to 1173 yuan, and in Central China increased by 20 yuan to 1090 yuan. The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 63.05 million weight cases, up 0.77% month - on - month. The spot price of soda ash was 1180 yuan, down 20 yuan. The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.8231 million tons, up 0.05% [18][19]. - **Market Analysis**: The price of glass is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and it follows the macro - sentiment in the long term. The price of soda ash is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the price center may gradually rise in the long term, but the increase is limited by the demand side [18][19].

能源化工日报 2025-09-10 2025/09/10 原油早评 能源化工组 行情方面：INE 主力原油期货收涨 6.60 元/桶，涨幅 1.39%，报 482.80 元/桶；相关成品油主 力期货高硫燃料油收涨 31.00 元/吨，涨幅 1.13%，报 2766.00 元/吨；低硫燃料油收涨 23.00 元/吨，涨幅 0.68%，报 3385.00 元/吨。 数据方面：中国原油周度数据出炉，原油到港库存去库 0.43 百万桶至 209.84 百万桶，环比去 库 0.21%；汽油商业库存累库 0.87 百万桶至 89.09 百万桶，环比累库 0.99%；柴油商业库存 去库 0.21 百万桶至 102.30 百万桶，环比去库 0.21%；总成品油商业库存累库 0.66 百万桶至 191.39 百万桶，环比累库 0.35%。 刘洁文 甲醇、尿素分析师 从业资格号：F03097315 交易咨询号：Z0020397 0755-23375134 liujw@wkqh.cn 我们认为尽管地缘溢价已经全部消散，OPEC 虽做增产但量级极低，因而我们维持 OPEC 此举是 对市场进行压力测试的观点。当前油价已经出现相对低估， ...

能源化工研究 | 原油 一、 我们为何认为 OPEC 近期有保价态度，以及市场在增产会议后亦出现反弹。 专题报告 2025-09-09 原油：油价已经极具中期配置性价比 报告要点： 油价自以伊冲突后持续走低，美国总统期间频繁发表地缘声明，油价跟随美方对于俄乌冲突的 表态来回波动。市场逐渐脱敏后，原油开始回归弱势基本面定价，以国际油价 WTI 原油为例： WTI 原油开始回归至$60/桶~$62/桶区间波动，期间伴随委内瑞拉与美国的边境摩擦，但由于 OPEC 会议临近，虽未能对油价单边价格起到绝对助推作用，但中/重质油裂差随之持续走强。 此前我们认为本轮 OPEC 的增产概率偏低，因而油价不具较大下行风险。9 月 7 日 OPEC 会议表 示，"原则上"同意十月份 13.7 万桶/日的增产计划，OPEC 各能源部官员表态均显示出模棱两 可的态度，13.7 万桶/日的"微量"增产计划反映出 OPEC 内部对于保价的谨慎态度，但又迫于 油价长期弱势预期和政治压力的增产渴望。此次 OPEC 的增产决议虽略超我们此前的预期，但 仍然符合我们对 OPEC 内部态度的判断，因而我们认为油价向下空间仍旧有限。 徐绍祖 能化研 ...

农产品早报 2025-09-09 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 电话：028-86133280 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜品研究员 周一美豆小幅上涨，逢低买盘及 USDA 月报前调整仓位推动，USDA 销售报告显示中国仍然未进口美豆。 国内豆粕盘面小幅反弹，因中美贸易谈判乐观情绪暂时消退。周一国内豆粕成交较好，提货处于高位， 华东现货小幅上涨 20 元/吨，基差 01-100 跌 10。上周下游库存天数下降 0.08 天至 8.8 天，油厂大豆库 存大幅累库至五年同期最高，豆粕小幅累库。据 MYSTEEL 统计上周国内压榨大豆 230 万吨，本周预计 压榨 226 万吨。 杨泽元 白糖、棉花研究员 美豆产区未来两周降雨量偏少，大豆优良率可能维持下滑趋势，关注近期 USDA 报告美豆单产表现。巴 西方面，升贴水回落后震 ...