债市情绪有所回暖 国债周报 2026/01/24 蒋文斌（宏观金融组） 0755-23375128 jiangwb@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F3048844 交易咨询号：Z0017196 程靖茹（联系人） chengjr@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03133937 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 流动性 02 期现市场 05 利率及汇率 03 主要经济数据 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 流动性：本周央行进行11810亿元逆回购操作，有9515亿元逆回购到期，本周净投放2295亿元，DR007利率收于1.49%。 ◆ 利率：1、最新10Y国债收益率收于1.83%，周环比-1.12BP；30Y国债收益率收于2.29%，周环比-1.50BP；2、最新10Y美债收益率4.24%，周环 比+0.00BP。 ◆ 小结：基本面看，12月经济数据显示生产端有所回暖，外需方面出口数据超预期，其中非美市场和高技术行业出口维持高增，为工增提供了 有力支撑。需求端而言，前期政策边际效应减弱使得耐用品消费放缓，投资增速延续下滑，地产拖累和居民消费信心不足依然存在。经济恢 复动能持续性 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the sentiment in the commodity market has warmed up, with the Wenhua Industrial Products Index rising by 2.69%. Lithium carbonate has rebounded continuously, breaking through last week's high. Currently, the "rush to export" of batteries supports the off - season demand. The domestic production of lithium salt plants has reached a short - term high after maintenance, and the SMM domestic lithium carbonate inventory continues to decline. In the short term, there are many disturbances in the mining end, and the supply uncertainty is strong. The overall commodity market fluctuates greatly. The rapid rise of lithium prices hides the risk of correction. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position. Attention should be paid to the market atmosphere, demand policies, downstream purchasing willingness, and changes in the position on the disk [12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - On January 23, the evening quotation of the Five - Mineral Steel Union Lithium Carbonate Spot Index (MMLC) was 174,830 yuan, with a weekly increase of 8.16%. The average price of MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was 175,250 yuan. On the same day, the closing price of LC2605 on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 181,520 yuan, with a weekly increase of 7.55% [12]. - On January 22, the weekly output of domestic lithium carbonate reported by SMM was 22,217 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.7%. In December 2025, China imported 23,989 tons of lithium carbonate, a month - on - month increase of 8.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.5%. In 2025, the total import volume of lithium carbonate in China was about 243,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. In December 2025, Chile exported 11,704 tons of lithium carbonate to China, a month - on - month decrease of 20.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.4% [12]. - From January 1 - 18, the retail sales of the new - energy passenger vehicle market nationwide were 312,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 16% compared with the same period in January last year and a 52% decrease compared with the same period last month. The cumulative retail sales this year were 312,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 16%. From January 1 - 18, the wholesale volume of new - energy vehicles by national passenger vehicle manufacturers was 348,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 23% compared with the same period in January last year and a 46% decrease compared with the same period last month. The cumulative wholesale volume this year was 348,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 23%. The first quarter is a critical window period for "rush to export" of batteries, and the off - season demand is expected to increase. The decline in material production scheduling is narrower than previously expected [12]. - On January 22, the weekly inventory of domestic lithium carbonate was reported at 108,896 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 783 tons (-0.7%). The inventory days of lithium carbonate were about 27.8 days. On January 23, the registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange were 28,886 tons, a weekly increase of 6.2% [12]. - The change in lithium salt prices is transmitted upstream. On January 23, the quotation of SMM Australian imported SC6 lithium concentrate was 2,150 - 2,400 US dollars per ton, with a weekly increase of 9.11%. In December, the domestic import of lithium concentrate was 628,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.2% and a month - on - month decrease of 7.3%. In 2025, the domestic import of lithium concentrate was 6.209 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.0%. In 2025, the import of lithium concentrate from Australia increased by 8.0% year - on - year, and the import of lithium concentrate from Africa increased by 14.3% year - on - year. The supply of high - cost hard - rock mines is accelerating, and the import of lithium mines is significantly supplemented [12]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - On January 23, the evening quotation of the Five - Mineral Steel Union Lithium Carbonate Spot Index (MMLC) was 174,830 yuan, with a weekly increase of 8.16%. The average price of MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was 175,250 yuan. On the same day, the closing price of LC2605 on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 181,520 yuan, with a weekly increase of 7.55% [20]. - The average discount price in the exchange - standard electric carbon trading market is - 1,000 yuan (referring to the main contract LC2605). The net short position of the main seats of the lithium carbonate contract has increased [23]. - The price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 3,500 yuan. The price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide is 10,000 yuan [26]. 3.3 Supply Side - On January 22, the weekly output of domestic lithium carbonate reported by SMM was 22,217 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.7%. In December 2025, the domestic lithium carbonate output was 99,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.0% and a year - on - year increase of 42.4%. The annual output increased by 43.6% year - on - year [31]. - In December, the output of lithium carbonate from lithium spodumene was 60,850 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.4% and a year - on - year increase of 48.7%. The annual output increased by 70.3% year - on - year. In December, the output of lithium carbonate from lithium mica was 13,350 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.6% and an annual increase of 17.4% year - on - year [34]. - In December, the output of lithium carbonate from salt lakes increased by 3.1% month - on - month to 14,990 tons, with an annual increase of 15.1% year - on - year. In December, the output of lithium carbonate from the recycling end was 10,010 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.9% and an annual increase of 27.3% year - on - year [37]. - In December 2025, China imported 23,989 tons of lithium carbonate, a month - on - month increase of 8.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.5%. In 2025, the total import volume of lithium carbonate in China was about 243,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. In December 2025, Chile exported 11,704.02 tons of lithium carbonate to China, a month - on - month decrease of 20.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.4% [40]. 3.4 Demand Side - The battery field dominates the lithium demand. In 2024, the global consumption accounted for 87%. The main growth point of future lithium salt consumption still depends on the growth of the lithium - battery industry, while the proportion of traditional application fields is limited and the growth is weak. The proportion of lithium used in fields such as ceramic glass, lubricants, flux powders, air conditioners, and medicine is only 5% [44]. - From January 1 - 18, the retail sales of the new - energy passenger vehicle market nationwide were 312,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 16% compared with the same period in January last year and a 52% decrease compared with the same period last month. The cumulative retail sales this year were 312,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 16%. From January 1 - 18, the wholesale volume of new - energy vehicles by national passenger vehicle manufacturers was 348,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 23% compared with the same period in January last year and a 46% decrease compared with the same period last month. The cumulative wholesale volume this year was 348,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 23% [47]. - In 2025, about 3.77 million new - energy vehicles were sold in Europe, a year - on - year increase of 30.5%. In 2025, about 1.6 million new - energy vehicles were sold in the United States, a year - on - year increase of 1.4% [50]. - According to the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, in December, the total output of power and energy - storage batteries in China was 201.7 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 14.4% and a year - on - year increase of 62.1%. From January to December, the cumulative output of power and energy - storage batteries in China was 1,755.6 GWh, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 60.1%. In December, the domestic power - battery loading volume was 98.1 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 4.9% and a year - on - year increase of 35.1%. From January to December, the cumulative domestic power - battery loading volume was 769.7 GWh, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 40.4% [53]. - In 2025, the domestic output of lithium iron phosphate increased by 58.8% year - on - year, and the domestic output of ternary materials increased by 23.5% year - on - year. The first quarter is a critical window period for "rush to export" of batteries, and the off - season demand is expected to increase. The decline in material production scheduling is narrower than previously expected [56]. 3.5 Inventory - On January 22, the weekly inventory of domestic lithium carbonate was reported at 108,896 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 783 tons (-0.7%). The inventory days of lithium carbonate were about 27.8 days. On January 23, the registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange were 28,886 tons, a weekly increase of 6.2% [63]. - Driven by the "rush to export" demand, the inventory of cathode materials has decreased. The inventories of power batteries and energy - storage batteries are at a low level in recent years [66]. 3.6 Cost Side - The change in lithium salt prices is transmitted upstream. On January 23, the quotation of SMM Australian imported SC6 lithium concentrate was 2,150 - 2,400 US dollars per ton, with a weekly increase of 9.11% [73]. - In December, the domestic import of lithium concentrate was 628,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.2% and a month - on - month decrease of 7.3%. In 2025, the domestic import of lithium concentrate was 6.209 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.0%. In 2025, the import of lithium concentrate from Australia increased by 8.0% year - on - year, and the import of lithium concentrate from Africa increased by 14.3% year - on - year. The supply of high - cost hard - rock mines is accelerating, and the import of lithium mines is significantly supplemented [76].

04 需求端 过剩格局难改， 宏观乐观情绪支撑期价 氧化铝周报 2026/01/24 王梓铧（联系人） 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0015924 从业资格号：F03130785 吴坤金（有色金属组） 从业资格号：F3036210 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估 01 周度评估 周度要点小结 ◆ 期货价格：截至1月23日下午3时，氧化铝指数周内下跌0.95%至2719元/吨，持仓增加1.4万手至71.7万手。本周氧化铝价格先跌后涨，供应过剩格局导致价格承压，"反内卷"预 期叠加乐观的宏观情绪为价格提供支撑。基差方面，山东现货价格报2555元/吨，贴水02合约8元/吨。月差方面，连1-连3月差收盘录得-48元/吨。 ◆ 现货价格：本周各地区氧化铝现货价格延续下跌趋势，广西、贵州、河南、山东、山西和新疆地区现货价格分别下跌10元/吨、下跌10元/吨、下跌10元/吨、下跌10元/吨、下跌 10元/吨、持平。累库趋势持续，多数地区现货价格仍然承压。 ◆ 库存：周内氧化铝社会总库存累库9.4万吨至548.7万吨，其中电解铝厂内库存、氧化铝厂内库存、在途库存、港口库存 ...

镍铁涨价趋势延续， 继续看好估值上行 不锈钢周报 2026/01/24 陈逸 （联系人） cheny40@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0015924 从业资格号：F03137504 吴坤金（有色金属组） 从业资格号：F3036210 0755-23375125 04 需求端 02 期现市场 05 库存 03 供给端 06 成本端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度要点小结 ◆ 期现市场：据MYSTEEL，01月23日无锡不锈钢冷轧卷板均价报14600元/吨，环比+1.74%；山东7%-10%镍铁出厂价为1035元/镍，环比+1.97%； 废不锈钢均价报9450元/吨，环比-0.53%。不锈钢主力合约周五下午收盘价14725元/吨，环比+3.15%。 ◆ 供给：据MYSTEEL，01月国内冷轧不锈钢排产145.86万吨。12月粗钢产量为282.84万吨，环比-22.02万吨，1-12月累计同比6.48%。据 MYSTEEL样本统计，12月300系不锈钢粗钢产量预计达140.43万吨，环比-0.14%；12月300系冷轧产量73.6万吨，环比+6.96%。 ◆ 需求 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - This week, crude oil fluctuated repeatedly following geopolitical situations. US inventories entered the inventory accumulation window, but refinery demand remained, and the fundamentals did not decline. - In terms of supply and demand changes, US commercial crude oil inventories increased, and Iraq in the Middle East stated it would increase exports. - At the macro - political level, the IMF raised its economic forecast, and the IEA also raised its crude oil demand forecast, expecting a global demand growth rate of 930,000 barrels per day in 2026, slightly higher than 850,000 barrels per day in 2025. Politically, the US - Iran relationship remained in a stalemate, and the US Energy Secretary said he would visit Venezuela in the coming weeks. - Satellite maps show that the Caribbean Islands (excluding Cuba) imported at least about 230,000 barrels per day of Venezuelan crude oil. Venezuela's oil has flowed back to Caribbean storage tanks for the first time in years, creating conditions for refineries in the US, Europe, and Asia to obtain heavy - sulfur crude oil. It is believed that with the US Energy Secretary's planned visit to Venezuela, Venezuela's production increase is in progress, with an expected step - by - step and slow growth. At the same time, it is judged that the internal unrest in Iran and the US - Iran relationship will enter a state of low - intensity frictions, and Iran's production capacity has passed the peak black - box test. Against the backdrop of one increase (Venezuela) and one shortfall (Iran), there is still a bottom for oil prices. From a medium - to - long - term perspective, it is still cost - effective to go long when the price is in the shale oil break - even range [15]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Assessment & Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: This week, crude oil fluctuated with geopolitical situations. US inventories entered the accumulation phase, but refinery demand remained, and fundamentals did not decline [15]. - **Supply - Demand Changes**: US commercial crude oil inventories increased, and Iraq planned to increase exports [15]. - **Macro - Political Situation**: The IMF raised the economic forecast, and the IEA raised the crude oil demand forecast. Politically, the US - Iran relationship was in a stalemate, and the US Energy Secretary planned to visit Venezuela [15]. - **View Summary**: Venezuela's production increase is in progress, and the US - Iran relationship will enter a state of low - intensity frictions. Oil prices have a bottom, and it is cost - effective to go long in the shale oil break - even range [15]. 2. Macro & Geopolitical - **Short - Term High - Frequency Macro Indicators**: Include the US ISM manufacturing PMI, the Citigroup G10 economic surprise index, the US 10 - year inflation expectation, and the US long - short - term spread, all related to WTI oil prices [44]. - **Medium - Term Macro Forecast Indicators**: Such as the euro - zone investment confidence index, the US investment confidence index, and GDP growth rate forecasts of major countries, which are related to oil consumption [48][49]. - **Geopolitical Indicators**: The Middle East geopolitical risk index and the high - frequency export statistics of sensitive oil - producing countries (Iran, Libya, Venezuela, and Russia) are related to WTI oil prices [55]. 3. Oil Product Spreads - **Forward Curve**: Analyzed the WTI crude oil forward curve, the near - far structure of various crude oils, and the M1/M4 month - spread of WTI crude oil [59]. - **Inter - Regional Spreads**: Studied the spreads between Brent/WTI, Brent/Dubai, INE/WTI, and MRBN/WTI [62]. - **Product Spreads**: Analyzed the forward curve of LGO diesel, the near - far structure of refined oils, and the spreads between RB/HO and LGO/RB [65][66]. - **Crack Spreads**: Examined the crack spreads of gasoline, diesel, high - sulfur fuel oil, and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore, Europe, and the US [72][75][78]. 4. Crude Oil Supply - **OPEC & OPEC+ Supply**: OPEC has a series of production policies, including production cuts and increases. The production and supply situations of OPEC 12 countries and OPEC+ major member countries are also presented [84][86]. - **US Supply**: The US has various policies and actions related to oil supply, such as changes in SPR funds, sanctions on other countries, and policies on oil well and rig operations [114][115]. - **Other Supply**: The production situations of Canada, Norway, Brazil, and China are included [123]. 5. Crude Oil Demand - **US Demand**: Covers refinery operations, direct and derived demands for crude oil, and micro - level demand indicators [129][134][146]. - **China Demand**: Includes direct and derived demands for crude oil, refinery operations, and micro - level demand indicators [151][156][164]. - **European Demand**: Analyzed refinery operations and direct and derived demands for crude oil [170][174]. - **Indian Demand**: Focused on refinery operations and direct and derived demands for crude oil [180]. - **Other Demand**: Such as the average daily speeds of different types of oil tankers and the oil transportation quality model [184][187]. 6. Crude Oil Inventory - **US Inventory**: Includes commercial crude oil inventory, inventory available days, and inventories in different regions, as well as gasoline, diesel, fuel oil, and aviation kerosene inventories [194][196][198]. - **China Inventory**: Covers port inventories, gasoline, and diesel inventories [203][206][209]. - **European Inventory**: Analyzed the ARA inventory and the inventories of 16 European countries [214][219][222]. - **Singapore Inventory**: Includes gasoline, diesel, fuel oil, and total refined oil inventories [226]. - **Fujairah Inventory**: Covers gasoline, diesel, fuel oil, and total refined oil inventories [231]. - **Marine Inventory**: Analyzed the floating storage of refined oils and crude oil at sea [236][240][244]. 7. Meteorological Disasters - **Meteorological Disasters in Crude Oil Supply Areas**: Include storm models in the US Gulf of Mexico and the Middle East, as well as wildfire probability models in Canada and rainstorm & thunderstorm in the US Gulf of Mexico [249][255]. 8. Alternative Data - **Crude Oil Alternative Data**: Such as the in - transit supply of crude oil by sea, the crude oil transportation demand model, the shipping freight in the Arabian Sea, and the probability of the Hormuz Strait being blocked [261].

库存稳步回升，锡价高 位震荡 锡周报 2026/01/24 刘显杰（联系人） 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0015924 从业资格号：F03130746 吴坤金（有色金属组） 从业资格号：F3036210 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 供给端 02 期现市场 05 需求端 03 成本端 06 供需平衡 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 成本端：12月国内进口锡精矿增量明显，原料端供应紧缺有所缓解。2025年12月我国进口锡精矿实物量17637吨，折金属5191.6吨，环比增 长13.3%，同比增长40.2%。主要进口国看，非洲地区进口总量2375吨，减少11.1%；缅甸993吨，增长14.3%；澳大利亚912吨，增长91.5%； 南美地区进口总量426吨，增长118.5%。 ◆ 供给端：云南地区冶炼厂开工率维持高位，本周开工率为88%，与上周基本持平，但受原料供应偏紧制约，进一步提升空间有限。江西地区 仍受废料供应不足影响，粗锡供应偏紧，精锡产量延续偏低水平。整体来看，在原料约束尚未明显缓解的背景下，国内冶炼厂开工以 ...

供给扰动预期升温， 黑色系延续底部震荡 钢材周报 2026/01/24 0755-23375155 zhaoh3@wkqh.cn 陈张滢（黑色建材组） 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 赵航 （联系人） 从业资格号：F03133652 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 成本端 02 期现市场 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度小结 ◆ 供应：本周铁水产量为228.1万吨，受到包钢爆炸事件影响，部分钢厂产量受到影响，产量略低于上周预期。螺纹钢产量为 199.55 万吨， 环比 +4.86%，同比 +14.60%，产量出现明显回升。长流程产量为 166.26 万吨，环比 +6.35%，同比 -1.26%，在利润尚可的背景下阶段性 回升；短流程产量为 33.29 万吨，环比 -1.97%，同比大幅增长，整体仍处于相对高位但边际略有回落。铁水产量为 228.10 万吨，环比 持平，同比 +1.18%，高炉端整体运行相对平稳。利润方面，钢厂盈利率为 40.69%，较前期小幅改善。华东地区螺纹高炉利润约 65 元/吨， 处于中性偏低水平；谷电利润为 44 元/吨，较前期有所收 ...

逢高空配 尿素周报 2026/01/24 徐绍祖 （能源化工组） 从业资格号：F03115061 交易咨询号：Z0022675 严梓桑 （联系人） 0755-23375123 yanzs@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03149203 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估 05 需求端 02 期现市场 06 期权相关 03 利润库存 07 产业结构图 04 供给端 01 周度评估 行情走势 图1：尿素指数 1,800.0 2,000.0 2,200.0 2,400.0 2,600.0 2,800.0 3,000.0 2025-01-01 2025-01-08 2025-01-15 2025-01-22 2025-01-29 2025-02-05 2025-02-12 2025-02-19 2025-02-26 2025-03-05 2025-03-12 2025-03-19 2025-03-26 2025-04-02 2025-04-09 2025-04-16 2025-04-23 2025-04-30 2025-05-07 2025-05-14 2025-05-21 2025-05-28 2025-06- ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From January 16 to 23, 2026, the price of the main palladium contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange rose 3.73% to 497.95 yuan/gram, and the price of the main platinum contract rose 10.96% to 685.9 yuan/gram. The strong performance of gold and silver prices this week drove the strong performance of platinum group metals. The suspension of tariffs did not ease the tight spot market of platinum group metals. The overseas platinum group metal lease rates remained high. Against the backdrop of the overall setback of the US dollar's credit, it is recommended to maintain a long - term thinking in platinum and palladium strategies, and platinum group metal prices still have room to rise [10][9]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Market Outlook - **Price Changes**: From January 16 to 23, 2026, the price of the main palladium contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange rose 3.73% to 497.95 yuan/gram, and the price of the main platinum contract rose 10.96% to 685.9 yuan/gram. This week, the price of the main NYMEX platinum contract rose 14.79% to 2773.2 US dollars per ounce, and the price of the main NYMEX palladium contract rose 9.73% to 2047 US dollars per ounce [10][9]. - **Inventory Changes**: As of January 23, the CME platinum inventory was 20.71 tons, an increase of 975.6 kilograms this week. The CME palladium inventory rose 166 kilograms to 6.73 tons [9]. - **Lease Rates**: As of January 23, the one - month implied lease rate for spot platinum was 15.14%, and the one - month implied lease rate for palladium was 7.62%, both at the highest levels in the same period in the past five years [9]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Against the backdrop of the overall setback of the US dollar's credit, it is recommended to maintain a long - term thinking in platinum and palladium strategies, and platinum group metal prices still have room to rise [9]. 3.2. Market Review - **Platinum Price**: The price of the main NYMEX platinum contract rose 14.79% to 2773.2 US dollars per ounce, and the total open interest as of the latest reporting period on January 20 was 79009 lots. As of January 23, the spot price of platinum on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 681.5 yuan/gram. Affected by the adjustment of the import VAT exemption policy, the premium of domestic platinum significantly rebounded [17][23]. - **Palladium Price**: The price of the main NYMEX palladium contract rose 9.73% to 2047 US dollars per ounce, and the total open interest as of the latest reporting period on January 20 was 19167 lots [20]. - **Lease Rates**: As of January 23, the one - month implied lease rate for spot platinum was 15.14%, and the one - month implied lease rate for palladium was 7.62% [24]. - **CFTC Net Positions**: In the week of January 20, the net long position of NYMEX platinum managed funds decreased from 7536 lots to 4906 lots. The current net position of palladium managed funds is a net short of 255 lots [27][30]. 3.3. Inventory and ETF Position Changes - **Platinum ETF Position**: As of January 23, the total position of major overseas platinum ETFs was 76.02 tons [41]. - **Palladium ETF Position**: As of January 23, the total position of major overseas palladium ETFs was 15.56 tons [44]. - **Platinum Inventory**: The US platinum exchange inventory remained at a high level. As of January 23, the CME platinum inventory was 20.71 tons, an increase of 975.6 kilograms this week [48]. - **Palladium Inventory**: The CME palladium inventory continued to rise, reaching 6.73 tons as of January 23 [53]. 3.4. Supply and Demand - **Platinum Supply**: The platinum production forecast of the world's top 15 mines shows that the platinum production of the top 15 mines in 2026 will reach 124.24 tons, a 2.5% decrease from 127.47 tons in 2025 [59]. - **Palladium Supply**: The production data of the world's top 10 palladium mines shows that the production of the top 10 palladium mines in 2026 will reach 147.73 tons, a 1.1% decrease from 149.37 tons in 2025 [61]. - **Platinum Imports in China**: As of November, China's cumulative platinum imports reached 91.64 tons, a slight 4.82% year - on - year decrease [64]. - **Palladium Imports in China**: The cumulative palladium imports were 31.21 tons, a 19.71% year - on - year increase [67]. 3.5. Monthly Spread and Cross - Market Spread - **NYMEX Platinum Monthly Spread**: Relevant charts show the price differences between different months of NYMEX platinum, such as the 1 - 4 spread, 4 - 7 spread, 7 - 10 spread, and 10 - 1 spread [83][85]. - **NYMEX Palladium Monthly Spread**: Relevant charts show the price differences between different months of NYMEX palladium, such as the 3 - 6 spread, 6 - 9 spread, 9 - 12 spread, and 12 - 3 spread [92][96]. - **Cross - Market Spread**: Charts show the price differences between the London spot platinum price and the NYMEX platinum price, as well as the London spot palladium price and the NYMEX palladium price [97].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The negative feedback in the real - end has limited impact, and nickel prices are expected to fluctuate strongly at high levels. In the short term, nickel prices are likely to follow market risk preferences, and it is recommended to wait and see [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Resource end**: Nickel ore prices rose significantly this week due to the impact of the rainy season in the Philippines and the strengthening of LME nickel prices. In the Philippines, rainfall led to a near - halt in mining and barge shipping, tightening supply and supporting domestic ore prices. China's port inventory further decreased to 7.36 million tons. In Indonesia, the supply and demand of wet - process ore were stable with prices unchanged, while the price of 1.6% grade nickel ore at the factory increased to $54 - 56 per wet ton [11]. - **Nickel iron**: The price of high - nickel pig iron in China continued to rise sharply this week. The average price of SMM 10 - 12% high - nickel pig iron increased by 25 yuan per nickel point to 1,042.5 yuan per nickel point (ex - factory tax - included). The price is expected to remain strong in the short term [11]. - **Intermediate products**: Nickel intermediate products maintained a pattern of "tight supply + high coefficient" this week. The high price suppressed downstream acceptance, and nickel salt/electrolytic nickel plants purchased on a need - basis and actively sought alternative raw materials. The supply of high - grade nickel matte was also tight with a firm coefficient, but transactions were restricted by high prices [11]. - **Refined nickel**: Nickel prices first weakened and then strengthened this week. The Shanghai Nickel main contract 2602 closed at 148,010 yuan per ton on Friday, up 2.52% for the week. The LME 3M contract was reported at $18,850 per ton, up 4.07% for the week. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see [11]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures price trends**: The report presents the price trends of nickel futures contracts, including the LME 3 - month nickel and the active nickel contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange [15]. - **Spot premium and discount**: It shows the average premium and discount of 1 Jinchuan nickel and 1 imported nickel to the Shanghai Nickel contract, as well as the LME nickel spot premium and discount [18][21]. - **Secondary nickel prices**: The report includes the price of nickel iron, the price of nickel sulfate, and the premium of nickel sulfate relative to nickel beans [23]. 3.3. Cost Side - **Nickel ore**: It shows data on Philippine nickel ore exports, domestic nickel ore imports, port inventories, and prices in Indonesia and the Philippines [28][30][32]. - **Nickel iron**: Data on the monthly production of nickel iron in Indonesia and China, as well as the production profit situation, are presented [34][36]. - **Intermediate products**: Information on the production of Indonesian MHP and high - grade nickel matte, domestic imports of MHP and nickel matte, and the price and coefficient of intermediate products is provided [38][40][42]. 3.4. Refined Nickel - **Supply**: In December 2025, the national refined nickel production was 29,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 666 tons compared to October. The report also shows the monthly production and enterprise operating rate of domestic refined nickel [46][48]. - **Demand**: It presents data on domestic stainless - steel production, social inventory, and the terminal demand of the manufacturing and real estate industries [49][51]. - **Import and export**: The report shows the domestic refined nickel import volume and import profit and loss [53]. - **Inventory**: It includes domestic refined nickel inventory and the LME's regional inventory [55]. - **Cost**: Data on the production cost and profit margin of domestic refined nickel by different raw materials and processes are provided [58]. 3.5. Nickel Sulfate - **Supply**: The report shows the production and net import volume of nickel sulfate in China [62]. - **Demand**: It presents data on the installed capacity of ternary power batteries and the production of ternary precursors in China [65]. - **Cost and price**: Information on the production cost, price, and profit margin of battery - grade nickel sulfate from different raw materials is provided [67]. 3.6. Supply - Demand Balance - The report provides a detailed table of the global and Chinese nickel supply - demand balance from 2024Q1 to 2026Q4, including production, consumption, supply - demand gaps, and inventory changes [71].