能源化工期权 2025-09-11 能源化工期权策略早报 | 卢品先 | 投研经理 | 从业资格号：F3047321 | 交易咨询号：Z0015541 | 邮箱：lupx@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号：F03138607 | 电话：0755-23375252 | 邮箱：huangkh@wkqh.cn | | 李仁君 | 产业服务 | 从业资格号：F03090207 | 交易咨询号：Z0016947 | 邮箱：lirj@wkqh.cn | 能源化工期权策略早报概要：能源类：原油、LPG；聚烯烃类期权：聚丙烯、聚氯乙烯、塑料、苯乙烯；聚酯类期 权：对二甲苯、PTA、短纤、瓶片；碱化工类：烧碱、纯碱；其他能源化工类：橡胶等。 策略上：构建卖方为主的期权组合策略以及现货套保或备兑策略增强收益。 表1：标的期货市场概况 | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - The protein meal market is affected by factors such as US soybean demand, domestic inventory, and Brazilian planting. It is expected to fluctuate within a range, and it is recommended to buy at low costs and be cautious at high levels [3][5]. - The oil market is supported by factors such as the US biodiesel policy and low inventory in Southeast Asia. It is expected to be moderately bullish in the medium - term and is recommended to buy on dips [7][8]. - The sugar market is bearish both domestically and internationally. The downward space depends on Brazilian production from August to October [9][10]. - The cotton market has mixed factors of low inventory and weak consumption. Short - term prices are expected to continue to fluctuate [12][13]. - The egg market may be stable or rise in the short - term, but there is a risk of decline in the future. It is recommended to wait and see and buy on dips [15][17]. - The pig market is expected to be stable with narrow fluctuations. It is advisable to pay attention to the possibility of a rebound and short - selling opportunities [19][20]. 3. Summary by Category Protein Meal - **Important Information**: US soybean prices fell slightly on Wednesday due to demand concerns. Domestic soybean meal had high inventory pressure. Last week, downstream inventory days decreased, and oil - mill soybean inventory reached a five - year high. US soybean production areas may see a decline in the excellent - good rate, and Brazilian premiums rebounded [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to the cost performance after the stabilization of soybean import costs. The domestic soybean meal spot may start to destock in September. It is recommended to buy on dips within the cost range and be cautious about profit and supply pressure at high levels [5]. Oil - **Important Information**: From September 1 - 10, Malaysian palm oil exports decreased. In August, Malaysian palm oil inventory, production, and exports had different changes. Analysts predict that the US 2025/26 soybean production may be 42.71 billion bushels. Domestic oils fluctuated and declined on Wednesday [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Supported by multiple factors, the oil market is expected to be moderately bullish in the medium - term. It is recommended to buy on dips after a decline [8]. Sugar - **Important Information**: On Wednesday, Zhengzhou sugar futures rebounded slightly. In August, national sugar sales decreased, and industrial inventory increased. Brazil's sugar exports to China increased [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Both domestic and international sugar markets are bearish. The downward space of sugar prices depends on Brazilian production from August to October [10]. Cotton - **Important Information**: On Wednesday, Zhengzhou cotton futures continued to fluctuate weakly. As of September 5, the spinning and weaving factory operating rates, cotton commercial inventory, and US and Brazilian cotton export data had different changes [12]. - **Trading Strategy**: With mixed factors of consumption and inventory, short - term cotton prices are expected to continue to fluctuate [13]. Egg - **Important Information**: Most national egg prices rose, and the market had little inventory and good demand. Egg prices may be stable or rise today [15][16]. - **Trading Strategy**: Although there is a risk of decline in the future, it is recommended to wait and see and buy on dips [17]. Pig - **Important Information**: Domestic pig prices mainly fell yesterday. The breeding side may stabilize prices, and downstream demand is average. Pig prices may be stable with narrow fluctuations today [19]. - **Trading Strategy**: The supply in September is still bearish, but there are supporting factors. It is advisable to pay attention to the possibility of a rebound and short - selling opportunities [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The precious metals sector is recommended to maintain a buy-on-dip approach, with a focus on the upward potential of silver prices. The reference trading ranges are 809 - 850 yuan/gram for the main Shanghai Gold futures contract and 9526 - 11000 yuan/kilogram for the main Shanghai Silver futures contract [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The inflation data released in the US was significantly lower than expected, and the US labor market has weakened, increasing market expectations for the Fed's subsequent easing policies. It is believed that the Fed will conduct more than three interest rate cuts in the remaining interest rate meetings this year, which is more than the market expects [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - Shanghai Gold (Au) rose 0.21% to 835.16 yuan/gram, and Shanghai Silver (Ag) rose 0.47% to 9817.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX Gold fell 0.09% to 3678.80 dollars/ounce, and COMEX Silver rose 0.11% to 41.65 dollars/ounce. The US 10-year Treasury yield was 4.04%, and the US Dollar Index was 97.79 [2]. Inflation Data - The US August PPI year-on-year value was 2.6%, significantly lower than the expected 3.3% and the previous value of 3.3%. The month-on-month value was -0.1%, significantly lower than the expected 0.3% and the previous value of 0.7%. The US August core PPI year-on-year value was 2.8%, lower than the expected 3.5% and the previous value of 3.4%. The month-on-month value was -0.1%, lower than the expected 0.3% [2]. Labor Market Data - From April 2024 to March 2025, the US private - sector non - farm employment data was revised down by 880,000, and the government - sector employment was revised down by 31,000. The total non - farm employment was revised down by 911,000, significantly higher than the market expectation of 700,000, Besant's expectation of 800,000, and the previous value of 598,000 [3]. Key Data of Gold and Silver - For gold, on September 10, 2025, the COMEX closing price (active contract) was 3680.40 dollars/ounce, up 0.45%. The SHFE closing price (active contract) was 833.42 yuan/gram, down -0.13%. - For silver, on September 10, 2025, the COMEX closing price (active contract) was 41.65 dollars/ounce, up 0.71%. The SHFE closing price (active contract) was 9796.00 yuan/kilogram, down -0.51% [7].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the Non - ferrous Metals Daily Report on September 11, 2025, from Wukuang Futures [1] Group 2: Copper - **Market Performance**: LME copper rose 0.96% to $10012/ton, and SHFE copper main contract closed at 80190 yuan/ton. The US PPI data was weaker than expected, and the US bond yield declined, leading to the rise of copper prices [2] - **Industry Situation**: LME copper inventory decreased by 225 to 155050 tons, with a cancellation warrant ratio of 14.0% and a Cash/3M discount of $56/ton. In China, SHFE copper warehouse receipts slightly increased to 19,000 tons. The spot premium in Shanghai decreased, while the inventory in Guangdong decreased and the procurement volume increased. The import of SHFE copper was slightly in the red, and the Yangshan copper premium increased. The refined - scrap copper price difference was 1620 yuan/ton, and the supply - demand of recycled copper was affected by policy adjustments [2] - **Price Outlook**: The market is hesitating between recession and interest - rate cut trading. If recession trading comes first, the attitude at the actual interest - rate meeting is expected to be dovish. Overseas copper mine supply is disturbed, and domestic copper production declines marginally. Although current consumption is weak, copper prices are expected to remain strong. The operating range of SHFE copper main contract is 79500 - 80800 yuan/ton, and that of LME copper 3M is 9900 - 10100 dollars/ton [2] Group 3: Aluminum - **Market Performance**: Aluminum prices fluctuated. LME aluminum fell 0.21% to $2622/ton, and SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 20830 yuan/ton. The position of SHFE aluminum weighted contract increased by 0.7 to 542,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts slightly increased to 65,000 tons [4] - **Industry Situation**: Domestic three - place aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 0.2 to 473,000 tons, and the aluminum bar inventory in Foshan and Wuxi decreased by 0.2 to 85,500 tons. The aluminum bar processing fee rebounded, but the market trading was average. The spot in East China was at a discount of 30 yuan/ton to the futures, and the discount widened. LME aluminum inventory remained unchanged, and the cancellation warrant ratio was 22.7%, with a Cash/3M premium of $2.92/ton [4] - **Price Outlook**: Aluminum prices are in a game between macro - expectations and fundamental realities. Overseas interest - rate cut expectations and the resilience of aluminum product exports provide support, but the weak improvement in domestic terminal demand restricts the upside. The key is to focus on the fulfillment of peak - season demand and inventory trends. If inventory turns, aluminum prices may rise further. The operating range of SHFE aluminum main contract is 20700 - 20960 yuan/ton, and that of LME aluminum 3M is 2600 - 2650 dollars/ton [4] Group 4: Lead - **Market Performance**: The SHFE lead index fell 0.74% to 16804 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell $15 to $1977/ton [5] - **Industry Situation**: The lead industry shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The supply of lead concentrates and waste lead - acid batteries is tight, restricting the smelter's production. The continuous losses of secondary lead have led to production cuts in Anhui. Downstream consumption is weaker than in previous years, and dealers' finished - product inventory is at a historical high [5] - **Price Outlook**: The supply of lead ingots is marginally narrowing, providing some support. However, if the commodity sentiment weakens and secondary smelting recovers, lead prices still face significant downside risks [5] Group 5: Zinc - **Market Performance**: The SHFE zinc index rose 0.34% to 22211 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S rose $13.5 to $2871/ton [7] - **Industry Situation**: Zinc ore and zinc ingots remain in surplus, with inventory accumulation. The TC of zinc concentrates is rising, and the domestic supply is loose. The downstream enterprise's operating rate has not improved significantly. After long - term destocking in the LME market, the LME zinc warrant is at a low level, and the LME zinc monthly spread has increased. The pattern of weak domestic and strong overseas markets is intensifying, and the SHFE - LME ratio is accelerating downward [7] - **Price Outlook**: Some institutional and foreign - capital seats regard zinc as a short - allocation variety in non - ferrous metals, with high consensus on shorting. It is expected to show a low - level oscillating pattern with limited short - term downside [7] Group 6: Tin - **Supply**: The resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, is slow. Yunnan is still facing a severe shortage of tin mines, with smelters' raw - material inventory generally less than 30 days and a low operating rate. Some smelters plan to conduct maintenance in September, and the refined tin production in September is expected to decline by 29.89% month - on - month [8] - **Demand**: The downstream is in the off - season, with weak traditional consumption areas. Although AI computing power has increased some tin demand, it has limited impact on overall demand [8] - **Price Outlook**: The off - season demand is weak, but the short - term supply decline is significant. Tin prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [8] Group 7: Nickel - **Market Performance**: Nickel prices oscillated. The US PPI data cooled unexpectedly, and the US dollar index initially fell and then recovered [10] - **Industry Situation**: The profit of nickel - iron plants has improved but is still low. The stainless - steel plants' production in August and September is expected to increase, supporting the nickel - iron price. The supply of intermediate products is short, and the demand from some electric - nickel and nickel - sulfate producers provides price support [10] - **Price Outlook**: The short - term macro - environment is positive, and the expectation of interest - rate cuts may drive non - ferrous metals, including nickel, to strengthen. In the long - term, the US easing expectation and China's anti - involution policy will support nickel prices. It is recommended to go long on dips. The operating range of SHFE nickel main contract this week is 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton, and that of LME nickel 3M is 14500 - 16500 dollars/ton [10] Group 8: Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The Wukuang Steel Union's lithium carbonate spot index (MMLC) fell 2.73% to 71,237 yuan. The LC2511 contract closed at 70,720 yuan, down 2.99% [12] - **Industry Situation**: The resumption of the Jiaxiaowo mine may reverse the supply - demand repair expectation, suppressing lithium prices. In September, the domestic lithium carbonate is expected to continue destocking [12] - **Price Outlook**: The spot strength may support the bottom. The reference operating range of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate 2511 contract is 68,600 - 72,500 yuan/ton [12] Group 9: Alumina - **Market Performance**: On September 10, 2025, the alumina index rose 0.14% to 2934 yuan/ton, and the position decreased by 0.4 to 391,000 lots [14] - **Industry Situation**: The spot price in Shandong decreased by 10 to 3020 yuan/ton, with a premium of 105 yuan/ton over the 10 - contract. The overseas MYSTEEL Australia FOB price remained at $337/ton, and the import window is open. The futures warehouse receipts decreased by 0.78 to 121,900 tons [14] - **Price Outlook**: Overseas ore supply is improving, and the over - capacity in the smelting segment is difficult to change in the short term. The expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut may drive the non - ferrous sector to strengthen. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference operating range of the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2850 - 3250 yuan/ton [14] Group 10: Stainless Steel - **Market Performance**: The stainless - steel main contract closed at 12915 yuan/ton, down 0.27%. The position decreased by 2037 to 285,900 lots [17] - **Industry Situation**: The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi remained stable. The raw - material prices also remained unchanged. The social inventory decreased by 2.71%, and the 300 - series inventory decreased by 2.09% [17] - **Market Outlook**: The stainless - steel spot market is oscillating narrowly, with price differentiation. The 304 cold - rolled price is stable with light trading, while the 304 hot - rolled price has increased slightly due to tight supply [17] Group 11: Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Performance**: The AD2511 contract rose 0.22% to 20350 yuan/ton, and the weighted contract position increased by 0.23 to 11,700 lots [19] - **Industry Situation**: The downstream is gradually transitioning from the off - season to the peak season. The cost is strongly supported by the increased supply disturbance of domestic and overseas scrap aluminum. The exchange has lowered the margin ratio, increasing market activity [19] - **Price Outlook**: Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to remain high in the short term [19] Group 12: Data Summary - The report also provides daily data on non - ferrous metals, including LME and SHFE inventory, inventory changes, warrant cancellation ratio, cash - 3M spread, SHFE position, position changes, spot premium, and import - export data [22]

黑色建材日报 2025-09-11 钢材 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3109 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 14 元/吨（-0.44%）。当日注册仓单 242240 吨, 环比增加 8223 吨。主力合约持仓量为 186.7674 万手，环比增加 88845 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天 津汇总价格为 3210 元/吨, 环比减少 10/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3230 元/吨, 环比减少 10 元/吨。 热轧板卷 主力合约收盘价为 3342 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 7 元/吨（-0.20%）。 当日注册仓单 24459 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 131.3659 万手，环比 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends in various sectors. In the macro - financial sector, the stock index may face short - term adjustment pressure but has a long - term bullish outlook; the bond market is expected to be volatile in the short term. In the non - ferrous metals sector, most metals have their own supply - demand and price characteristics, with some expected to be strong and others to be weak. In the black building materials sector, steel prices are under pressure due to weak demand, while iron ore shows a relatively strong trend. In the energy and chemical sector, different products have different supply - demand and price trends. In the agricultural products sector, prices of various products are affected by factors such as supply, demand, and seasonality [3][6][23] - The "anti - involution" policy has an impact on the market, but its real - world implementation and effectiveness will determine whether it can drive the market to continue the upward trend similar to the supply - side structural reform. The market also needs to pay attention to the Fed's interest - rate decision and the recovery of peak - season demand [29][30] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Financial 3.1.1 Stock Index - News: In August, global hedge funds' net buying of Chinese stocks reached a new high since September 2024; Tesla is finalizing the Optimus V3 design; the US PPI in August increased by 2.6% year - on - year, lower than the expected 3.3%, and decreased by 0.1% month - on - month, lower than the expected 0.3%; Oracle's stock price soared due to a $455 billion order [2] - Transaction Logic: After the previous continuous rise, high - level hot sectors such as AI have shown differences recently. The market risk preference has decreased, and the short - term index faces adjustment pressure. However, in the long - term, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and the idea is mainly to buy on dips [3] 3.1.2 Treasury Bonds - Market: On Wednesday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS all declined. In August, the CPI was flat month - on - month and decreased by 0.4% year - on - year, while the core CPI increased by 0.9% year - on - year. The PPI was flat month - on - month and decreased by 2.9% year - on - year. The Ministry of Finance will tender and re - issue 35 billion yuan of 20 - year ultra - long - term special treasury bonds on September 17. The central bank conducted 304 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on Wednesday, with a net investment of 74.9 billion yuan [4] - Strategy: The manufacturing PMI in August improved but was still below the boom - bust line. The central bank is expected to maintain loose funds. The rise in market risk preference suppresses the bond market sentiment, and the bond market is expected to be volatile in the short term [5][6] 3.1.3 Precious Metals - Market: Shanghai gold rose 0.21% to 835.16 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver rose 0.47% to 9817 yuan/kg. COMEX gold fell 0.09% to $3678.8/ounce, and COMEX silver rose 0.11% to $41.65/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.04%, and the US dollar index was 97.79 [7] - Outlook: The US inflation data in August was significantly lower than expected, and the labor market weakened. It is expected that the Fed will cut interest rates more than three times in the remaining meetings of this year. It is recommended to buy on dips in the precious metals sector, especially focusing on the rise of silver prices [7][8] 3.2 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.2.1 Copper - Market: The US PPI data was weaker than expected, and copper prices rose. LME copper rose 0.96% to $10012/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 80190 yuan/ton. The LME copper inventory decreased, and the domestic copper inventory and basis showed different trends [10] - Outlook: The market is hesitating between recession and interest - rate cut trading. Overseas copper mine supply has some disturbances, and domestic copper production has decreased marginally. Copper prices are expected to continue to be strong, with the Shanghai copper main contract running in the range of 79500 - 80800 yuan/ton and LME copper 3M in the range of 9900 - 10100 dollars/ton [10] 3.2.2 Aluminum - Market: Aluminum prices fluctuated. LME aluminum fell 0.21% to $2622/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 20830 yuan/ton. The domestic aluminum inventory decreased, and the basis and market atmosphere showed different trends [11] - Outlook: Aluminum prices are oscillating between macro expectations and fundamental realities. Overseas interest - rate cut expectations and the resilience of aluminum product exports provide support, but the weak improvement in domestic terminal demand restricts the upward space. Pay attention to the peak - season demand and inventory trends. The domestic main contract is expected to run in the range of 20700 - 20960 yuan/ton, and LME aluminum 3M in the range of 2600 - 2650 dollars/ton [11] 3.2.3 Zinc - Market: The zinc market shows an over - supply situation. The zinc ore and zinc ingot inventories are increasing, the TC of zinc concentrate is rising, and the domestic supply is loose. The LME market has a low inventory of zinc warrants, and the contango is rising. The pattern of weak domestic and strong overseas is intensifying [12] - Outlook: The zinc market is expected to be in a low - level oscillating pattern with limited short - term decline space [12] 3.2.4 Lead - Market: The lead industry shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The shortage of raw materials restricts the production of smelters, and the downstream consumption is weak. The lead ingot supply has decreased marginally, but there is still a risk of price decline if the market sentiment weakens [13] - Outlook: The lead price has certain support at the bottom, but there is a large downward risk if the commodity sentiment weakens and the smelting recovers [13] 3.2.5 Nickel - Market: The nickel price fluctuated. The profit of nickel - iron plants has improved but is still at a low level. The demand for nickel - iron from stainless steel plants provides support. The supply of intermediate products is tight, and the demand from some enterprises provides price support [14] - Outlook: The short - term macro environment is positive, and the expectation of interest - rate cuts may drive the rise of non - ferrous metals. Although the supply of refined nickel is in an over - supply situation, the long - term support from the US loose expectation and domestic anti - involution policy is strong. It is recommended to buy on dips, with the Shanghai nickel main contract running in the range of 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton and LME nickel 3M in the range of 14500 - 16500 dollars/ton [14] 3.2.6 Tin - Market: Tin prices rebounded slightly. The supply of tin mines in Myanmar is recovering slowly, and domestic smelter production is affected. The downstream demand is in the off - season, and the inventory has increased slightly [15] - Outlook: Tin prices are expected to be volatile in the short term due to the weak demand in the off - season and the significant short - term decline in supply [15] 3.2.7 Lithium Carbonate - Market: The price of lithium carbonate decreased. The resumption of production of the Jiaxiaowo mine may change the supply - demand situation. The domestic lithium carbonate is expected to be destocked in September, and the spot strength may support the bottom [16] - Outlook: Pay attention to the market atmosphere and industrial information. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate 2511 contract is expected to run in the range of 68600 - 72500 yuan/ton [16] 3.2.8 Alumina - Market: The alumina index rose 0.14% to 2934 yuan/ton. The domestic and overseas prices and basis showed different trends, and the futures inventory decreased [17][18] - Outlook: Overseas ore supply is improving, and the over - capacity pattern in the smelting section is difficult to change in the short term. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation may drive the non - ferrous metals sector to be strong. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, with the domestic main contract AO2601 running in the range of 2850 - 3250 yuan/ton [18] 3.2.9 Stainless Steel - Market: The stainless steel main contract closed at 12915 yuan/ton, down 0.27%. The spot price was stable, and the inventory decreased [19] - Outlook: The stainless steel market shows a pattern of narrow - range oscillation, with different price trends for different products. The overall market trading atmosphere is weak, and the cold - rolled steel trading is particularly sluggish [19] 3.2.10 Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market: The AD2511 contract rose 0.22% to 20350 yuan/ton. The spot price increased, and the inventory increased slightly [20] - Outlook: The downstream of the cast aluminum alloy is gradually transitioning from the off - season to the peak season. The cost support is strong, and the market activity is increasing. The price is expected to remain high in the short term [20] 3.3 Black Building Materials 3.3.1 Steel - Market: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased. The rebar main contract closed at 3109 yuan/ton, down 0.44%, and the hot - rolled coil main contract closed at 3342 yuan/ton, down 0.20%. The inventory increased, and the demand was weak [22][23] - Outlook: The steel market is in a weak situation. The demand is still weak in the peak season, and the steel price may decline further if the demand cannot be effectively repaired [23] 3.3.2 Iron Ore - Market: The iron ore main contract (I2601) closed at 805 yuan/ton, with no change. The supply decreased, the demand decreased, and the inventory increased [24][25] - Outlook: The iron ore price is expected to be oscillating and strong in the short term. Pay attention to the recovery of steel mill production and the peak - season demand [25] 3.3.3 Glass and Soda Ash - Glass - Market: The glass price decreased slightly. The domestic glass inventory increased, and the downstream demand was not significantly improved [26] - Outlook: The glass price is expected to be oscillating in the short term. In the long term, it will follow the macro sentiment, and the price may rise if there are substantial policies in the real estate sector [26] - Soda Ash - Market: The soda ash price was stable. The inventory increased slightly, and the downstream demand was cautious [27] - Outlook: The soda ash price is expected to be oscillating in the short term. In the long term, the price center is expected to rise, but the upward space is limited due to the weak downstream demand [27] 3.3.4 Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Market: The manganese silicon main contract (SM509) rose 0.27%, and the ferrosilicon main contract (SF511) rose 0.14%. The spot prices were stable, and the basis showed different trends [28] - Outlook: The manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices are expected to be oscillating. It is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to the pressure and support levels [28] 3.3.5 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial Silicon - Market: The industrial silicon main contract (SI2511) rose 3.03%. The spot prices were stable, and the basis showed different trends [32] - Outlook: The industrial silicon price is expected to be oscillating in the short term. Pay attention to the news drive and risk control [32][33] - Polysilicon - Market: The polysilicon main contract (PS2511) fell 1.19%. The spot prices decreased slightly, and the basis was negative [34] - Outlook: The polysilicon price is in a pattern of "weak reality, strong expectation". The price is expected to be volatile, and pay attention to the risk control [34][35] 3.4 Energy and Chemicals 3.4.1 Rubber - Market: NR and RU oscillated weakly, following the trend of industrial products such as coking coal [37] - Outlook: The rubber price may rise due to the rainy weather in Thailand. The mid - term view is bullish, and the short - term view is neutral, suggesting waiting and seeing or quick - in and quick - out operations [37][38][39] 3.4.2 Crude Oil - Market: The INE main crude oil futures rose 0.58% to 486.2 yuan/barrel. The US EIA data showed that the crude oil and refined product inventories increased [40][41] - Outlook: The oil price is currently undervalued, and the fundamental support is strong. If the geopolitical premium re - emerges, the oil price may rise further. It is recommended to be long on crude oil [41] 3.4.3 Methanol - Market: The methanol 01 contract rose 9 yuan/ton. The domestic supply increased, the overseas supply was at a high level, and the demand showed different trends [42] - Outlook: The short - term reality is weak, but the market expectation has changed. It is recommended to buy on dips and consider the 1 - 5 positive spread [42] 3.4.4 Urea - Market: The urea 01 contract fell 14 yuan/ton. The supply decreased, and the demand was weak [43] - Outlook: The urea price is expected to be in a range - bound operation. It is recommended to buy on dips [43] 3.4.5 Styrene - Market: The spot price of styrene decreased, and the futures price increased. The BZN spread is at a low level, and the cost and supply - demand sides show different trends [44][45] - Outlook: The BZN spread is expected to repair, and the styrene price may rebound after the inventory reaches the inflection point [44] 3.4.6 PVC - Market: The PVC01 contract rose 10 yuan. The cost was stable, the supply increased, and the demand was weak [46][47] - Outlook: The PVC market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand and high valuation. It is recommended to short on rallies, but beware of the impact of anti - involution sentiment [47] 3.4.7 Ethylene Glycol - Market: The EG01 contract fell 3 yuan. The supply decreased marginally, the demand increased, and the inventory increased [48] - Outlook: The ethylene glycol inventory is expected to increase in the medium term, and the valuation may decline [48] 3.4.8 PTA - Market: The PTA01 contract rose 20 yuan. The supply decreased marginally, the demand increased, and the inventory decreased [49] - Outlook: The PTA market is in a pattern of de - stocking. It is recommended to buy on dips following PX, paying attention to the peak - season terminal performance [49] 3.4.9 p - Xylene - Market: The PX11 contract rose 44 yuan. The supply increased, the demand increased, and the inventory decreased [50] - Outlook: The PX price is expected to be oscillating. It is recommended to buy on dips following crude oil, paying attention to the peak - season demand [50][51] 3.4.10 Polyethylene (PE) - Market: The PE futures price decreased. The cost support exists, the supply is limited, and the demand is expected to increase [52] - Outlook: The PE price is expected to oscillate upward [52] 3.4.11 Polypropylene (PP) - Market: The PP futures price decreased. The supply pressure is large, and the demand is in a seasonal rebound [53] - Outlook: The PP market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the inventory pressure is high. It is recommended to buy on dips the LL - PP2601 contract [53] 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Live Pigs - Market: The domestic pig price continued to decline. The supply is expected to be high in September, but there are potential support factors such as consumption and stockpiling [55] - Outlook: The pig price is expected to be in a narrow - range adjustment. It is recommended to pay attention to the low - level rebound and short - selling opportunities after the rebound, and continue the far - month reverse spread strategy [55] 3.5.2 Eggs

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The report maintains the view of overweighting crude oil from last week, believing that the current oil price is relatively undervalued, and the fundamentals will support the current price. If the geopolitical premium re - opens, the oil price will have more upside potential [2] Summary by Category Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: INE's main crude oil futures rose 2.80 yuan/barrel, or 0.58%, to 486.20 yuan/barrel [1] - **Inventory Data**: US EIA weekly data showed that US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 3.94 million barrels to 424.65 million barrels, a 0.94% increase; SPR increased by 0.51 million barrels to 405.22 million barrels, a 0.13% increase; gasoline inventories increased by 1.46 million barrels to 220.00 million barrels, a 0.67% increase; diesel inventories increased by 4.72 million barrels to 120.64 million barrels, a 4.07% increase; fuel oil inventories increased by 1.30 million barrels to 21.21 million barrels, a 6.51% increase; aviation kerosene inventories increased by 0.47 million barrels to 43.27 million barrels, a 1.11% increase [1] Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On September 10, the 01 - contract rose 9 yuan/ton to 2407 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 20 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 112 [4] - **Analysis**: Domestic production has further increased, coal prices have slightly declined, and corporate profits are generally good. Overseas production has returned to a year - on - year high, and there is still import pressure. The port MTO load has slightly increased, and profits have continued to improve, but traditional demand is still weak. It is expected that the decline space is limited, and attention can be paid to long - position opportunities at low prices and 1 - 5 positive spreads [4] Urea - **Market Quotes**: On September 10, the 01 - contract fell 14 yuan/ton to 1669 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 9 [6] - **Analysis**: As the spot price weakens, corporate profits have further declined, and the production start - up rate has significantly decreased, reducing supply pressure. However, demand is weak, and port inventories are rising. It is expected that the price will move within a range, and it is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities at low prices [6] Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU fluctuated weakly, following the trend of industrial products such as coking coal. Thai standard mixed rubber was priced at 15000 (0) yuan, STR20 was reported at 1845 (- 5) dollars, and STR20 mixed was at 1855 (+ 5) dollars [9][12] - **Analysis**: Bulls believe that rubber production in Southeast Asia, especially in Thailand, may be limited, the seasonality of rubber usually turns upward in the second half of the year, and China's demand is expected to improve. Bears believe that macro - expectations are uncertain, demand is in the off - season, and the positive impact of supply may be less than expected. It is recommended to take a long - term bullish view, but a neutral view in the short - term, either waiting and watching or making quick trades [10][12] PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC01 contract rose 10 yuan to 4857 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4650 (0) yuan/ton, the basis was - 207 (- 10) yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 302 (+ 6) yuan/ton [14] - **Analysis**: The comprehensive corporate profit is at a high level this year, with high valuation pressure, low maintenance volume, and high production. Domestic demand is at a five - year low, and export expectations have weakened after the determination of India's anti - dumping tax rate. It is recommended to pay attention to short - position opportunities at high prices, but also beware of short - term upward movements [14] Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price fell, while the futures price rose, and the basis weakened. The BZN spread is at a relatively low level in the same period, with large upward correction space [16] - **Analysis**: The cost - side pure benzene production is in a neutral and volatile state, and the supply is still abundant. The supply - side ethylbenzene dehydrogenation profit has increased, and the production start - up rate of styrene has continued to rise. The port inventory has continued to decline significantly. In the long - term, the BZN spread may be repaired, and the styrene price may rebound after the inventory decline inflection point [16][17] Polyolefins Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The main contract closed at 7226 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton, the spot price was 7220 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis was - 6 yuan/ton, strengthening by 3 yuan/ton [19] - **Analysis**: There is only 400,000 tons of planned production capacity left, and the overall inventory is declining from a high level. The seasonal peak season may be coming, and the demand - side agricultural film raw material procurement has started. In the long - term, the price may fluctuate upward [19] Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The main contract closed at 6948 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton, the spot price was 6955 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis was 7 yuan/ton, strengthening by 1 yuan/ton [20] - **Analysis**: There is still 1.45 million tons of planned production capacity, with high supply pressure. The downstream production start - up rate has rebounded seasonally from a low level. The overall inventory pressure is high, and there is no prominent short - term contradiction. It is recommended to go long on the LL - PP2601 contract at low prices [20] Polyester PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX11 contract rose 44 yuan to 6770 yuan, the PX CFR rose 2 dollars to 838 dollars, and the basis was 94 yuan (- 22) [22] - **Analysis**: The PX production load is at a high level, and although the downstream PTA has many unexpected maintenance in the short - term, the PX inventory accumulation is not large due to new PTA device production. The terminal and polyester data are gradually improving, and the valuation has limited downward space. It is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities following crude oil at low prices during the peak season [22][23] PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA01 contract rose 20 yuan to 4698 yuan, the East China spot price rose 20 yuan to 4625 yuan, and the basis was - 63 yuan (0) [24] - **Analysis**: The supply - side unexpected maintenance has increased, and the inventory accumulation pattern has turned into de - stocking, but the processing fee is suppressed. The demand - side polyester fiber inventory pressure is low, and the downstream and terminal production start - up rates have improved, but the terminal recovery speed is slow. It is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities following PX at low prices [24] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG01 contract fell 3 yuan to 4319 yuan, the East China spot price fell 15 yuan to 4439 yuan, and the basis was 117 yuan (- 15) [25] - **Analysis**: Overseas and domestic maintenance devices have gradually started, and the production start - up rate has reached a high level. The domestic supply is high. In the short - term, the port inventory is expected to be low due to less arrival volume, but it will turn into inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter. The valuation is currently relatively high year - on - year, and there is downward pressure in the medium - term [25]

Report Overview - The report is a 2025-09-10 agricultural products morning report from Wukuang Futures, covering soybeans, oilseeds, sugar, cotton, eggs, and pigs [1]. Soybeans and Soybean Meal Market Situation - On Tuesday, U.S. soybeans fell slightly due to demand concerns. The domestic soybean meal market declined under high inventory pressure. Domestic soybean meal trading was fair, with high pick-up volumes. East China spot prices dropped by 10 yuan/ton, and the basis remained at 01-100 [2]. - Last week, downstream inventory days decreased by 0.08 days to 8.8 days. Oil mill soybean inventories reached a five-year high, and soybean meal inventories increased slightly. According to MYSTEEL, 2.3 million tons of soybeans were crushed last week, and 2.26 million tons are expected to be crushed this week [2]. Outlook - U.S. soybean production areas may see less rainfall in the next two weeks, and the soybean good-to-excellent rate may continue to decline. Pay attention to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) report on soybean yields [2]. - In Brazil, the premium decreased and then rebounded. Overall, the USDA's previous significant reduction in planting area is bullish for CBOT soybeans, but the upward momentum of soybean import costs under the background of global protein raw material oversupply needs to be tested [2]. Trading Strategy - Soybean import costs have recently been weak and stable. Pay attention to the cost performance after stabilization. The domestic soybean meal market has high pick-up volumes, and the spot market may start to destock in September, supporting oil mill crushing margins [4]. - In the future, pay attention to whether the improvement of the U.S. soybean market and the Brazilian planting season can improve the current oversupply situation. Regarding crushing margins, pay attention to whether the pick-up volume can be sustained. It is expected that soybean meal will fluctuate within a range. It is recommended to buy on dips at the lower end of the cost range and be cautious about crushing margins and supply pressure at the upper end [4]. Oils Important Information - According to a Malaysian independent inspection agency, Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1-10 increased by 23.67%. Exports are expected to increase by 16.5%-21.3% in the first 15 days, 13.61%-17.5% in the first 20 days, 10.9%-16.4% in the first 25 days, and 10.2% for the whole month [6]. - SPPOMA data shows that Malaysia's palm oil production from August 1-15 increased by 0.88% month-on-month, is expected to increase by 0.3% in the first 20 days, decrease by 1.21% in the first 25 days, and decrease by 2.65% for the whole month [6]. - Analysts expect the U.S. 2025/26 soybean production to be 4.271 billion bushels, with a range of 4.205-4.347 billion bushels. The USDA previously estimated 4.292 billion bushels in August [6]. Market Situation - On Tuesday, China's three major oils oscillated and declined. Stable demand from importing countries, low inventories in Southeast Asia, and unstable supply from Indonesia provide continuous bullish factors. Recent commodity corrections, high domestic oil inventories, and high oil valuations suppress buying sentiment. Foreign investors slightly reduced their long positions in oils on Tuesday. The domestic spot basis is stable at a low level [7]. Trading Strategy - The U.S. biodiesel policy draft exceeded expectations, Southeast Asian palm oil production potential is insufficient, Indian and Southeast Asian vegetable oil inventories are low, and the expected B50 policy in Indonesia support the oil price center. Oils are currently in a state of balanced or slightly loose supply and demand, with a tight outlook. Before the inventories in consuming and producing regions are fully accumulated and there is no negative feedback from consumer demand, oils are expected to oscillate strongly in the medium term. Given the current high valuations, observe high-frequency data and adopt a strategy of buying on dips after a decline [9]. Sugar Key Information - On Tuesday, Zhengzhou sugar futures oscillated. The January contract closed at 5,518 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton or 0.16% from the previous trading day. Spot prices in Guangxi remained unchanged, while those in Yunnan were stable. Processing sugar factory quotes decreased by 0-20 yuan/ton. The basis between Guangxi spot and the Zhengzhou sugar main contract (sr2601) was 352 yuan/ton [11]. - In August, China's sugar sales were 450,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 160,000 tons and a month-on-month decrease of 200,000 tons. The national industrial inventory was 1.16 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 60,000 tons. Brazil exported 840,000 tons of sugar to China in August, a month-on-month increase of 390,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 250,000 tons [11]. Trading Strategy - Domestically, increased imports, poor sales data in major producing areas in August, and expected production increases in Guangxi in the new season are bearish factors. Internationally, Brazil's central-southern region had a significant year-on-year increase in sugar production in the first half of August. Overall, the sugar price is expected to decline. The downward space depends on the international market. If Brazil's production continues to increase from August to October, the raw sugar price may continue to fall, and the domestic sugar price may reach new lows. Otherwise, the raw sugar price may oscillate or rebound slightly, and the domestic sugar price trend will be more complex [12]. Cotton Key Information - On Tuesday, Zhengzhou cotton futures continued to decline slightly. The January contract closed at 13,835 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton or 0.36% from the previous trading day. The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B dropped by 87 yuan/ton to 15,335 yuan/ton. The basis between the CCIndex 3128B and the Zhengzhou cotton main contract (CF2601) was 1,500 yuan/ton [14]. - As of September 5, the spinning mill operating rate was 66%, a 0.1 percentage point increase from the previous week and a 4.1 percentage point decrease from the same period last year. The weaving mill operating rate was 37.4%, a 0.2 percentage point increase from the previous week and a 13.9 percentage point decrease from the same period last year. The weekly commercial cotton inventory was 1.42 million tons, a decrease of 130,000 tons from the previous week and 410,000 tons from the same period last year [14]. - As of August 28, the cumulative U.S. cotton export contracts for the 2025/26 season were 852,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 179,100 tons. The weekly export contracts were 55,900 tons, a year-on-year increase of 20,300 tons. Brazil exported 10,500 tons of raw cotton to China in August, a year-on-year decrease of 8,000 tons and a month-on-month increase of 1,000 tons [14]. Trading Strategy - Fundamentally, although it is the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season, downstream consumption remains weak, and there are expectations of a bumper harvest in the new season. However, domestic cotton inventories are at a historically low level, creating a balance between bullish and bearish factors. Technically, the short-term Zhengzhou cotton price has encountered strong selling pressure after a rebound, and the cotton price is expected to continue to oscillate in the short term [15]. Eggs Spot Information - Most domestic egg prices were stable, with a few increasing. The average price in major producing areas rose slightly by 0.01 yuan to 3.40 yuan/jin. The prices in Heishan and Guantao remained unchanged. The market had a small inventory of eggs, and consumer demand in major sales areas was average. Dealers were moderately active in purchasing, and trading was stable. Egg prices are expected to remain mostly stable with a few increases [17]. Trading Strategy - The supply base is still large, and there is a large inventory of cold-stored eggs. After a short-term increase, the spot price is expected to decline. However, the supply pressure will decrease after a large number of laying hens are culled, and the storage conditions will improve after the temperature drops. If the spot price decline is less than expected, it may trigger reverse stocking, limiting the decline of spot and futures prices. It is recommended to wait and see, and consider short-term long positions if there is significant position building after a decline [18]. Pigs Spot Information - Domestic pig prices continued to decline. The average price in Henan dropped by 0.21 yuan to 13.6 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan dropped by 0.09 yuan to 13.27 yuan/kg. After continuous declines, farmers may have a short-term intention to support prices, but there is no positive change in downstream demand. Slaughterhouses may purchase at lower prices. Pig prices are expected to be stable or decline slightly today, with a narrowing decline [20]. Trading Strategy - The theoretical and planned slaughter volume is large, and the supply in September is expected to be bearish. However, potential supporting factors such as consumption, weight gain, and state purchases are accumulating. The spot price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range, lacking the basis for a significant increase or decrease. The market has already priced in the large supply, and the futures price, especially the near-term contract, has declined significantly and is at a discount to the spot price. It is not cost-effective to short aggressively. The strategy should focus on potential rebounds due to consumption factors and short opportunities after rebounds. The reverse spread strategy for the far-term contract remains valid [21].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The current stainless - steel market is a mix of bullish and bearish factors in the short term. It is recommended to focus on low - level trading opportunities during the market fluctuations. A strategy of buying on dips with a light position is advisable, while keeping an eye on future stainless - steel consumption and PMI inflation data [27]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Situation - The "anti - involution" theme in the market has little impact on stainless steel. Instead, the market has seen wide - range fluctuations due to the riots in Indonesia. With little change in the fundamentals, the cost - effectiveness of single - sided trading strategies for stainless steel is low. The current futures - spot price spread is near zero, and the near - month arbitrage space is very limited. The market does not reflect the optimistic expectations for the peak season, and there is still a lack of upward momentum for the market [2][6]. - From the actual consumption side, the demand for stainless steel has not improved significantly, and the restocking market has not started as expected [3][23]. Supply and Demand - On the spot side, stainless steel faces a structural shortage. Since the second quarter, the hot - rolled production has been steadily declining slightly, leading to a supply shortage. Recently, due to the "September 3rd Parade", some steel mills have reduced or suspended production, further exacerbating the supply - demand mismatch for hot - rolled products. In contrast, the production of 300 - series cold - rolled stainless steel has reached new highs, with sufficient market supply, and the planned production for September is expected to continue to increase [6]. - The expired warehouse receipts of stainless steel in September were 4,800 tons, and in October, they increased to 10,000 tons, which exerts some pressure on the futures market. However, the current futures price is close to the spot price, attracting some traders to increase their purchasing willingness. The delivery volume in August reached 39,000 tons, and it is expected to rise further from September to October [13]. Inventory - The overall inventory data is showing a downward trend. The current social inventory of crude steel is maintained at a reasonable level of around 1 million tons. The market's willingness to pick up goods has marginally improved, and traders are actively selling goods, which has accelerated the inventory clearance. For cold - rolled products, the high monthly production of 300 - series stainless steel brings some inventory accumulation pressure, but the extent of inventory accumulation is generally controllable [18]. Cost - The prices of key raw materials such as ferronickel and ferrochrome have stabilized and rebounded. The first - round tender price for high - nickel ferronickel in September released by Tsingshan Group is 955 yuan per nickel (including tax at the hatch bottom, N>11%), which further strengthens the cost support [23]. - The chromite market continues to strengthen. The recent strike at Turkish ports has severely disrupted chromite logistics, especially affecting the supply to the European market. In addition, the power supply problem in South Africa has not been resolved, and the operating rates of major local chromite producers have significantly declined, further intensifying the global chromite supply shortage [23]. Outlook - Although the "anti - involution" atmosphere in the commodity market has subsided, stainless steel, as a non - hot - spot variety, shows certain trading value at the current time. In the medium to long term, stainless steel prices are affected by both the domestic real - estate cycle and the commodity inflation cycle. The industry is currently at a low - value level, and the valuation is in the process of recovering from oversold to neutral, which is expected to resonate with the phased recovery of the real - estate industry [27].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall performance of agricultural products shows a weak and volatile trend. Oil and fat - related agricultural products are weakly volatile, while some products like eggs have unique price trends. It is recommended to construct option portfolio strategies mainly based on sellers, as well as spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - Multiple agricultural product futures show price fluctuations. For example, the latest price of soybean No.1 (A2511) is 3,937, down 34 (-0.86%); the latest price of egg (JD2510) is 3,060.00, up 56.00 (1.86%) [3] 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Position PCR - Different agricultural product options have different PCR values. For instance, the volume PCR of soybean No.1 is 0.50 with a change of 0.01, and the position PCR is 0.42 with a change of 0.01 [4] 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - From the perspective of option factors, different agricultural product options have corresponding pressure and support levels. For example, the pressure level of soybean No.1 is 4,500 and the support level is 3,900 [5] 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility of various agricultural product options varies. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of soybean No.1 is 10.17%, and the weighted implied volatility is 12.67% with a change of - 0.17% [6] 3.5 Option Strategies and Recommendations 3.5.1 Oil and Oilseed Options - **Soybean No.1 and No.2**: In terms of fundamental analysis, the US soybean good - rate has increased, and the Brazilian soybean CNF premium, import cost, and crushing profit have decreased. The soybean No.1 shows a weak and volatile trend. Option strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination strategy for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [7] - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal**: The supply of soybean meal is abundant, and the price is under pressure. Option strategies include constructing a bear spread strategy for direction, a short - biased call + put option combination strategy for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9] - **Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, and Rapeseed Oil**: The production and inventory of palm oil in Malaysia have changed. Palm oil shows a bullish and high - level volatile trend. Option strategies include constructing a long - biased call + put option combination strategy for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10] - **Peanut**: The peanut market is in a traditional off - season, with weak trading. It shows a weak and volatile trend. Option strategies include constructing a bear spread strategy for direction and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11] 3.5.2 Agricultural By - product Options - **Pig**: The pig market shows a weak trend. Option strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option combination strategy for volatility and a covered call strategy for spot [11] - **Egg**: The egg market is in a high - supply and low - demand situation, showing a weak and bearish trend. Option strategies include constructing a bear spread strategy for direction, a short - biased call + put option combination strategy for volatility [12] - **Apple**: The apple market shows a warming - up trend. Option strategies include constructing a long - biased call + put option combination strategy for volatility [12] - **Jujube**: The jujube market shows a short - term decline trend. Option strategies include constructing a short - biased strangle option combination strategy for volatility and a covered call strategy for spot [13] 3.5.3 Soft Commodity Options - **Sugar**: The sugar market shows a weak and bearish trend. Option strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option combination strategy for volatility and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [13] - **Cotton**: The cotton market shows a short - term weak trend. Option strategies include constructing a long - biased call + put option combination strategy for volatility and a covered call strategy for spot [14] 3.5.4 Grain Options - **Corn and Starch**: The corn market shows a weak and bearish rebound trend. Option strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option combination strategy for volatility [14]