Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Weibo, indicating a potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months [2][12]. Core Insights - Weibo's total revenue for 1Q24 decreased by 4% YoY to US$395 million, with non-GAAP net income down by 4% YoY to US$107 million, but ahead of consensus estimates due to better control of operating expenses [2][3]. - Advertising revenue is expected to remain flat YoY in 2Q24, primarily due to a decline in the cosmetics and beauty vertical, although management anticipates a recovery in the ad business in 2H24, supported by improved consumer sentiment and the upcoming Olympic event [2][3]. - The target price has been lowered to US$17.00 from US$18.80, reflecting a discount to peers' average valuation [2][3]. Revenue and Profitability - Total revenue forecasts for FY24-26 have been reduced by 2%, mainly due to shrinking ad budgets from cosmetics and beauty brands [2][3]. - The adjusted net profit for FY24E is projected at US$447 million, with a slight decline of 0.7% YoY, while FY25E and FY26E are expected to grow by 10.1% and 5.7% respectively [3][6]. - Non-GAAP operating profit margin improved to 31.8% in 1Q24, attributed to a 10% YoY reduction in total operating expenses [2][3]. Advertising Revenue Performance - Advertising revenue declined by 5% YoY to US$339 million in 1Q24, with the cosmetics and beauty vertical being the primary contributor to this decline [2][3]. - Despite the challenges in the cosmetics sector, domestic beauty brands saw over 50% growth in ad revenue in 1Q24, while other verticals like online games and 3C products experienced double-digit growth [2][3]. User Metrics and Strategy - Monthly Active Users (MAUs) decreased by 1% YoY to 588 million, while Daily Active Users (DAUs) remained flat at 255 million [2][3]. - The company is focusing on acquiring high-quality users through optimized channel investments, which is expected to increase the percentage of high-ARPU users [2][3]. Financial Position - As of March 31, Weibo had cash and cash equivalents of US$2.1 billion, sufficient to cover upcoming senior notes due in July 2024 and shareholder return initiatives [2][3]. - The company is expected to maintain a relatively stable cash position, with projected cash at the end of FY24E at US$2.6 billion [10].

行业点评 半导体 - 英伟达有望保持长期增长 英伟达于5月22日公布2025财年一季度财报。公司本季度收入为260亿美元，同比增长262%，环比增长 17.8%（上季度环比增长22.0%），较彭博一致预期的247亿美元高出5.5%。公司数据中心收入持续增长， 本季度达到226亿美元，同比增长426.7%，环比增长22.6%（上季度环比增长26.8%）。管理层预计二季度 收入约280亿美元，同比增长107.3%，环比增长7.5%。该指引比彭博一致预期的268亿美元高出4.4%。英伟 达股价于盘后交易时段上涨，涨幅超过5%，突破1,000美元大关。 公司本季度GAAP毛利率为78.4%，与上季度的76.0%和去年同期的64.6%相比，实现稳步增长。管理层预计 2025财年二季度的毛利率为74.8%，与此前预期一致。除强劲的一季度业绩和二季度指引外，英伟达宣布增 加股息，并将以10:1的比例进行拆股。预计此举将对公司股价产生积极影响。 本次业绩会亮点: AI需求持续增长，目前仍处于供不应求的状态。来自云服务供应商、企业及主权国家等的AI需求强劲。计算机 正在从被动接收指令向主动理解、推理和提供解决方案变革，应用场景 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Topsports, with a target price (TP) adjusted down to HKD 6.78 from the previous HKD 9.23, reflecting a 23.5% downside from the current price of HKD 5.49 [1][2]. Core Insights - The report expresses cautious optimism regarding Topsports' performance in the upcoming quarters, despite a challenging high base and macroeconomic conditions. It anticipates potential catalysts for recovery in FY25E, even if growth is below expectations [1][2]. - Retail sales growth for Topsports was slow in 4Q24, with expectations of continued pressure in 1Q25E due to high bases from new product launches. However, healthier inventory levels and reduced retail discount pressures are noted [1][2]. - The report highlights the potential for online sales growth acceleration and improved offline sales as key factors for recovery, alongside investments in brand marketing for the Paris Olympics [1][2]. Financial Summary - Revenue for FY24A is reported at RMB 28.933 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 6.9%. For FY25E, revenue is projected to reach RMB 31.072 billion, reflecting a growth rate of 7.4% [2][11]. - Net profit for FY24A is reported at RMB 2.213 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 20.5%. The net profit for FY25E is expected to be RMB 2.532 billion, indicating a growth of 14.4% [2][11]. - The gross profit margin is expected to remain stable at around 42.0% for FY25E, while the net profit margin is projected to improve slightly to 8.1% [2][11]. Inventory and Sales Performance - Inventory days have decreased significantly by 13 days to 136 days, indicating improved inventory management [6]. - Direct retail sales grew by 9% in FY24, while wholesale sales declined by 3%. E-commerce sales are expected to grow by 21%, significantly outpacing offline sales growth [6][11]. Market Position and Valuation - The current trading price of Topsports is at a P/E ratio of 12 times, which is below its four-year average of 13 times, suggesting potential undervaluation [1][2]. - The report notes a dividend yield of 7% for FY25E, providing a protective cushion for investors [1][2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for NetEase (NTES US) with a target price of **$131.5**, slightly adjusted from the previous target of **$130.5** [4][5] Core Views - NetEase's Q1 2024 revenue grew **7% YoY** to **RMB 26.9 billion**, in line with expectations, while non-GAAP net income grew **12% YoY** to **RMB 8.5 billion**, **2% above consensus**, driven by better-than-expected performance in gaming and music businesses [4] - The report is optimistic about **game revenue growth re-accelerating in 2H24E**, supported by a strong pipeline of new games, including *Where Winds Meet* (July 2024) and *Marvel Rivals* (3Q24E) [4] - Non-gaming businesses, particularly cloud music and Youdao, showed **quality growth**, with cloud music revenue up **4% YoY** to **RMB 2.03 billion** and Youdao revenue up **20% YoY** to **RMB 1.39 billion** [4] - Gross profit margin (GPM) improved by **3.9 percentage points YoY** to **63.4%**, driven by strong expansion in gaming and music GPM [4] - Operating profit margin (OPM) is expected to increase from **26.8% in FY23** to **28.6% in FY24E** and **29.7% in FY25E**, supported by GPM expansion and efficiency improvements [4] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is projected to grow from **RMB 103.5 billion in FY23** to **RMB 126.9 billion in FY26E**, with a **CAGR of 7.1%** [4][14] - Adjusted net income is expected to grow from **RMB 32.6 billion in FY23** to **RMB 39.3 billion in FY26E**, with a **CAGR of 6.4%** [4][14] - Gross margin is forecasted to improve from **60.9% in FY23** to **64.2% in FY26E**, while operating margin is expected to rise from **26.8% in FY23** to **30.8% in FY26E** [4][14] Valuation - The **Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP)** valuation method is used, with the target price of **$131.5** comprising: - **Online gaming business**: **$122.2** (92.9% of total valuation), based on **14x 2024E EV/EBIT** [19] - **Cloud music business**: **$3.0** (2.3% of total valuation), based on **2.9x 2024E EV/Revenue** [8] - **Youdao business**: **$2.0** (1.5% of total valuation), based on **2.8x 2024E EV/Revenue** [1] - **Innovative businesses**: **$2.3** (1.8% of total valuation), based on **1.2x 2024E EV/Revenue** [20] - **Net cash**: **$2.0** [8] Industry Comparison - NetEase's gaming business valuation multiple (**14x 2024E EV/EBIT**) is in line with industry peers such as Tencent (**17x**) and Electronic Arts (**16x**) [26] - The cloud music business valuation multiple (**2.9x 2024E EV/Revenue**) is comparable to Spotify (**3.3x**) and Tencent Music Entertainment (**5.3x**) [26]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price (TP) raised to HKD 25.39 from the previous HKD 23.77, indicating a potential upside of 34% from the current price of HKD 18.94 [2][3][17]. Core Insights - The company reported a strong first quarter with revenue and net profit growth of 27% and 101% year-on-year, respectively, driven by improved gross profit margins (GPM) and a better revenue mix [2][12]. - The company aims to deliver 120 electric vehicles (EVs) annually, up from a previous target of 100, and plans to expand its retail strategy significantly in China [2][12]. - The report anticipates continued growth in smartphone market share, AIoT sales strength, and overseas internet revenue, contributing to profit growth through FY24E - FY26E [2][12][13]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from HKD 270,970 million in FY23A to HKD 337,161 million in FY24E, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 24.4% [3][16]. - Adjusted net profit is expected to increase from HKD 19,273 million in FY23A to HKD 22,974 million in FY24E, representing a growth of 19.2% [3][16]. - The adjusted earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from RMB 0.77 in FY23A to RMB 0.92 in FY24E, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 19.0x for FY24E [3][16]. Segment Performance - Smartphone revenue is expected to reach HKD 185,020 million in FY24E, with a year-on-year growth of 18% [12][16]. - AIoT and lifestyle products are projected to generate HKD 93,264 million in FY24E, reflecting a growth of 16% [12][16]. - Internet services are anticipated to contribute HKD 32,856 million in FY24E, with a year-on-year growth of 9% [12][16]. Valuation and Catalysts - The report assigns a valuation multiple of 15x FY24E P/E for the smartphone, AIoT, and internet businesses, while the EV business is valued at 0.75x FY25E P/S [17]. - Upcoming catalysts include progress in EV deliveries and growth in smartphone market share [2][17].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Ke Holdings with a target price adjusted to $22.00 from the previous $23.00, reflecting a potential upside of 16.6% from the current price of $18.87 [2][3]. Core Insights - The report highlights a rebound in sentiment and a gradual recovery in the fundamentals of Ke Holdings, despite a 19% year-over-year decline in revenue to RMB 16.4 billion in Q1 2024. This decline was less severe than expected, aided by stronger-than-anticipated growth in new business revenues [2][6]. - The existing home transaction (EHT) gross transaction value (GTV) fell by 32% year-over-year to RMB 453 billion, while new home transaction (NHT) GTV dropped 45% to RMB 152 billion. However, the report anticipates a recovery in GTV starting in Q2 2024, driven by supportive policies [2][6]. - New business segments, particularly home renovation and furniture, showed significant growth, with revenues reaching RMB 2.4 billion in Q1 2024, a 71% increase year-over-year. The management expects operational efficiency to improve in 2024, leading to a reduction in net loss margins from -10% in 2023 to -5% in 2024 [2][6]. Financial Summary - For FY24E, total revenue is projected to be RMB 90.2 billion, reflecting a 15.9% year-over-year growth. Adjusted net profit is expected to be RMB 9.4 billion, with a decrease of 13.1% compared to the previous year [7][9]. - The report outlines a gradual improvement in profitability metrics, with gross profit margins expected to stabilize around 26.1% in FY24E, while operating profit margins are projected at 5.6% [9][10]. - The company has committed to enhancing shareholder returns, having allocated $220 million for stock buybacks in Q1 2024, representing approximately 1% of its market capitalization [2][6]. Market Outlook - The report suggests that recent policy changes regarding down payment ratios and mortgage rates may stimulate real estate sales, although challenges remain due to high housing inventory and a long-term demographic outlook that may not support significant price recovery [2][6]. - The anticipated total GMV for Ke Holdings in Q2 2024 is projected at RMB 79.6 billion, with a 2% year-over-year increase, and total revenue expected to reach RMB 21.5 billion, a 10% increase [2][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for Bilibili (BILI US) with a target price of **$20.50** per ADS, implying a 49.2% upside from the current price [2][5] Core Views - Bilibili reported **Q1 revenue growth of 12% YoY** to RMB 5.67 billion, in line with expectations, while adjusted net loss narrowed by **56% YoY** to RMB 456 million, better than expected due to stronger-than-expected GPM expansion [2] - The company is on track to achieve **non-GAAP operating breakeven in Q3 2024**, supported by robust GPM expansion and efficiency improvements [2][3] - FY24 adjusted net loss forecast has been revised down to **RMB 710 million** from RMB 896 million, reflecting improved operating leverage and efficiency gains [2] Revenue Breakdown - **Advertising revenue** grew **31% YoY** to RMB 1.67 billion in Q1, driven by strong performance-based advertising growth (over 50% YoY). Q2 advertising revenue is expected to grow **27% YoY** [3] - **VAS revenue** increased **17% YoY** to RMB 2.53 billion in Q1, supported by resilient live streaming and innovative VAS services. Q2 VAS revenue is expected to grow **16% YoY** [3] - **Mobile gaming revenue** declined **13% YoY** to RMB 983 million in Q1 but is expected to grow **5% YoY** in Q2, driven by strong performance of legacy games and new game launches [3] User and Ecosystem Growth - Average DAU grew **9% YoY** to 102.4 million in Q1, with average daily time spent increasing **9% YoY** to 105 minutes [3] - Bilibili expanded collaborations with e-commerce platforms, with management expecting **over 30% YoY growth** in total e-commerce advertising budgets during the 618 shopping festival, which is expected to drive Q2 advertising revenue growth [3] Profitability and Margins - Gross margin expanded **6.6 ppts YoY** and **2.2 ppts QoQ** to **28.3%** in Q1, driven by favorable revenue mix shifts and effective cost control. Q2 gross margin is expected to further improve to **29.4%** [3] - Adjusted net loss margin improved **12.5 ppts YoY** to **-7.8%** in Q1, with the company on track to achieve non-GAAP operating breakeven in Q3 2024 [3] Financial Forecasts - FY24 revenue is forecasted at **RMB 25.49 billion**, with gross profit expected to reach **RMB 7.64 billion** (30.0% gross margin). Adjusted net loss is projected at **RMB 710 million** [9] - FY25 revenue is expected to grow to **RMB 27.66 billion**, with gross profit reaching **RMB 8.99 billion** (32.5% gross margin). Adjusted net profit is forecasted at **RMB 1.16 billion** [9] SOTP Valuation - The **SOTP-derived target price of $20.50** includes: - **Advertising business** valued at $8.5 (41.3% of total valuation), based on 15x 2024E PE [11] - **VAS business** valued at $7.5 (36.7% of total valuation), based on 2.0x 2024E PS [11] - **Mobile gaming business** valued at $4.3 (20.8% of total valuation), based on 15x 2024E PE [11] Peer Comparison - Bilibili's valuation multiples are compared to peers in online gaming and advertising, with average PE multiples of **18x** for online gaming and **15x** for online advertising [12] - In the online video segment, Bilibili's PS multiple is compared to peers like iQiyi and Mango Excellent Media, with average PS multiples of **2.0x** for FY24E and **1.8x** for FY25E [13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for the company, with a target price of US$131.50, representing a potential upside of 38.8% from the current price of US$94.74 [4][5]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue increase of 7% year-over-year to RMB26.9 billion in 1Q24, aligning with estimates. Non-GAAP net income grew by 12% year-over-year to RMB8.5 billion, exceeding consensus estimates due to strong performance in the games and music business [5]. - The forecast for FY24-26 non-GAAP net income has been raised by 2-5% to reflect better-than-expected gross profit margin (GPM) expansion [5]. - Game revenue is expected to accelerate in the second half of 2024, supported by a strong game pipeline, despite potential short-term volatility from game adjustments and competition [5]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for FY24E, FY25E, and FY26E are RMB111.2 billion, RMB119.4 billion, and RMB126.9 billion, respectively, with a slight decrease of 0.7% from previous estimates [1]. - Gross profit is expected to reach RMB70.3 billion in FY24E, with a gross margin of 63.2%, reflecting a 1.5% increase from prior estimates [1]. - Adjusted net profit is projected at RMB33.9 billion for FY24E, with an adjusted net margin of 30.5% [1]. - The company’s cash flow from operations is expected to grow from RMB35.3 billion in 2023A to RMB34.9 billion in 2024E, indicating strong operational efficiency [3]. Growth and Profitability - Revenue growth rates are projected at 7.5% for FY24E, 7.3% for FY25E, and 6.3% for FY26E, with adjusted net profit growth rates of 4.1%, 7.3%, and 7.9% for the same periods [19]. - The overall gross profit margin is anticipated to improve to 63.4% in 1Q24, driven by strong GPM expansion in the games and music sectors [5]. Valuation - The sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation methodology indicates a valuation of US$122.2 billion for the online game business, which constitutes 92.9% of the total valuation [26]. - The valuation for the Cloud Music business is estimated at US$3.0 billion, based on a multiple of 2.9x 2024E EV/revenue, aligning with industry averages [6][27].

Investment Rating - Maintain BUY rating for Beike with a target price of US$22.00, down from the previous US$23.00, indicating a potential upside of 16.6% from the current price of US$18.87 [2][3]. Core Insights - Beike reported a 19% year-over-year decline in revenue for Q1 2024, totaling RMB16.4 billion, but this was better than both the forecast and consensus estimates due to strong performance in new business segments [2]. - The company is expected to see growth in Gross Transaction Value (GTV) starting from Q2 2024, driven by supportive policies and a rebound in market sentiment [2]. - Beike's core business continues to gain market share, supported by its established ACN ecosystem, while new business areas like home renovation and rental services are growing rapidly [2]. - The management has committed approximately US$220 million for share repurchase, representing about 1% of the market cap, to enhance shareholder returns [2]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, Beike's existing home transaction GTV fell 32% year-over-year to RMB453 billion, while new home transactions dropped 45% to RMB152 billion, compared to a 50% decline for the top 100 developers [2]. - The company generated RMB2.4 billion in revenue from home renovation and furnishing, marking a 71% year-over-year increase [2]. - Forecasts for Q2 2024 include total GTV of RMB796 billion, up 2% year-over-year, and total revenue of RMB21.5 billion, up 10% year-over-year [2]. Earnings Summary - Revenue projections for Beike are set to increase from RMB77.8 billion in FY23 to RMB90.2 billion in FY24, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 15.9% [6]. - Adjusted net profit is expected to reach RMB6.9 billion in FY24, down from RMB10.8 billion in FY23, indicating a decline of 13.1% [6]. - The company anticipates a gradual recovery in profitability, with adjusted net profit margins stabilizing around 10.4% in FY24 [8]. Market Outlook - Recent policy changes regarding down payment ratios and mortgage interest rates are expected to provide a marginal boost to property sales, although the impact may be less significant than in previous downturns [2]. - The overall property market is projected to show positive signs of recovery in the latter half of 2024, supported by demand-side easing and financing policy implementations [5].

Investment Rating - Maintain BUY rating with a target price of US$20.50, implying a 49.2% upside from the current price of US$13.74 [4][2]. Core Insights - Bilibili reported a 12% year-over-year increase in total revenue to RMB5.67 billion in 1Q24, aligning with estimates, while adjusted net loss narrowed by 56% year-over-year to RMB456 million, outperforming expectations [2]. - The company remains on track to achieve non-GAAP operating breakeven in 3Q24, supported by gross margin expansion and operational efficiency improvements [2]. - Advertising revenue surged by 31% year-over-year to RMB1.67 billion, driven by strong performance-based ads, with expectations for continued growth [2]. - Value-added services (VAS) revenue grew by 17% year-over-year to RMB2.53 billion, bolstered by live-streaming and innovative services [2]. - Mobile games revenue declined by 13% year-over-year to RMB983 million, but a recovery of 5% year-over-year is anticipated in 2Q24 due to new game launches [2]. Revenue and Profitability Forecasts - Revenue projections for FY24E are set at RMB25.49 billion, with adjusted net loss expected to narrow to RMB710 million [3][7]. - Gross margin is forecasted to improve to 30.0% in FY24E, with operating margin expected to reach -8.1% [7][12]. - Adjusted net profit is projected to turn positive by FY25E, reaching RMB1.16 billion [3][12]. User and Ecosystem Development - Average daily active users (DAUs) increased by 9% year-over-year to 102.4 million, with average daily time spent on the platform rising to 105 minutes [2]. - The e-commerce ecosystem is expanding, with management expecting a 30% year-over-year increase in total e-commerce ad budgets during the 618 shopping festival [2]. Valuation Breakdown - The target price of US$20.50 is derived from a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation, with contributions from advertising (US$8.5), VAS (US$7.5), and mobile games (US$4.3) [8][9].