Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the Container Shipping Daily on November 10, 2025, focusing on the container shipping industry [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - The market's bullish sentiment has weakened, some long - positions have been continuously reduced, and the market has been declining. The 2512 main contract closed at 1812.0 on November 7, with a decline of 1.79%, a trading volume of 17,100 lots, and an open interest of 25,900 lots, a decrease of 2,525 lots from the previous day [3] - The SCFIS and NCFI freight rate indices showed mixed trends. For example, the SCFIS (European route) on November 3 was 1208.71 points, down 7.9% from the previous period, while the SCFIS (US West route) was 1267.15 points, up 14.4% [2] - In October, the eurozone's manufacturing PMI was 45.9, the service PMI was 51.2, and the composite PMI was 49.7. In the US, the service PMI was 55.2, the manufacturing PMI was 52.2, and the composite PMI was 54.8. China's manufacturing PMI in October was 49.0%, and the composite PMI output index was 50.0% [2][3] - Sino - US tariffs have been extended, and the negotiation has not made substantial progress. The tariff issue has shown a marginal effect, and the current core is the trend of spot freight rates [3] Group 3: Strategies Short - term Strategy - The main contract remains weak, and the far - month contracts are strong, which is in line with the bottom - building judgment. Risk - preferring investors were advised to build positions in the EC2512 contract below 1500 (with a profit margin of over 300 points), and all positions have been advised to take profit. Attention should be paid to the subsequent market trend, and it is not recommended to hold positions without stop - loss [4] Arbitrage Strategy - Given the volatile international situation, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [4] Long - term Strategy - All contracts have been advised to take profit when the price rises, and then wait for the price to stabilize after the correction before judging the subsequent direction [4] - The daily trading limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 has been adjusted to 18%, the company's margin has been adjusted to 28%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts from 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [4] Group 4: Future Focus - Future attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views of the Report - The market's bullish sentiment has weakened, some long positions have continued to reduce their holdings, and the market has continued to decline. It is necessary to pay attention to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [3] - The core issue is the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the process of bottoming out. It is recommended to participate lightly or wait and see [3] Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Conditions - On November 3, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1208.71 points, a 7.9% decrease from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US West route was 1267.15 points, a 14.4% increase from the previous period [2] - On November 7, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 1053.62 points, a 4.24% decrease from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 911.73 points, a 5.58% decrease from the previous period; the NCFI for the US West route was 1349.1 points, a 7.14% decrease from the previous period [2] - On November 7, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced a price of 1495.10 points, a decrease of 3.6 points from the previous period; the SCFI European route price was 1323 USD/TEU, a 1.6% decrease from the previous period; the SCFI US West route was 2212 USD/FEU, a 16.4% decrease from the previous period [2] - On November 7, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1058.17 points, a 3.6% increase from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1366.85 points, a 3.3% increase from the previous period; the CCFI for the US West route was 814.14 points, a 5.4% increase from the previous period [2] - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in October was 45.9, the expected value was 45.1, and the previous value was 45; the preliminary value of the service PMI was 51.2, the expected value was 51.5, and the previous value was 51.4; the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 49.7, the expected value was 49.7, and the previous value was 49.6; the Sentix investor confidence index in October was -9.2, and the predicted value was -8.5 [2] - In October, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month; the composite PMI output index was 50.0%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month [2] - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global service PMI in October was 55.2, the expected value was 53.5, and the previous value was 54.2; the preliminary value of the manufacturing PMI was 52.2, the expected value was 52; the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 54.8, the expected value was 53.1, and the previous value was 53.9 [3] - The Sino-US tariff extension negotiation has not made substantial progress. The tariff war has gradually evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries. Currently, the spot price has slightly decreased [3] - On November 7, the main contract 2512 closed at 1812.0, a decrease of 1.79%, with a trading volume of 17,100 lots and an open interest of 25,900 lots, a decrease of 2525 lots from the previous day [3] Strategies - Short-term strategy: The main contract remains weak, and the far-month contracts are relatively strong, which is in line with the bottoming-out judgment. Risk-takers have been advised to try to build positions in the EC2512 contract below 1500 (with a profit margin of over 300 points), and all positions have been advised to take profits. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, do not hold losing positions, and set stop-losses [4] - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of international turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try lightly [4] - Long-term strategy: All contracts have been advised to take profits when the price rises, wait for the price to stabilize after the correction, and then judge the subsequent direction [4] - The daily price limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 has been adjusted to 18% [4] - The margin of the company for contracts 2508 - 2606 has been adjusted to 28% [4] - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [4]

Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillatory adjustment [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillatory [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: Oscillatory [2] - Glass: Oscillatory [2] - Soda ash: Oscillatory [2] - CSI 500: Rebound [4] - CSI 1000: Rebound [4] - 2-year treasury bond: Oscillatory [4] - 5-year treasury bond: Oscillatory [4] - 10-year treasury bond: Upward [4] - Gold: High-level oscillation [4] - Silver: High-level oscillation [4] - Logs: Weakly oscillatory [6] - Pulp: Bottom rebound [6] - Offset paper: Oscillatory [6] - Soybean oil: Range-bound operation [6] - Palm oil: Range-bound operation [6] - Rapeseed oil: Range-bound operation [6] - Soybean meal: Oscillatory [6] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillatory [6] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillatory [7] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillatory [7] - Live pigs: Oscillatory and bullish [7] - Rubber: Oscillatory [9] - PX: Wait-and-see [9] - PTA: Oscillatory [9] - MEG: Wide-range oscillation [9] - PR: Wait-and-see [9] - PF: Wait-and-see [9] Core Views - The black industry is affected by macro and fundamental factors, with the main line of "loose supply, low demand, and port inventory accumulation" for iron ore; coal and coke are supported by fundamentals but face the core contradiction of low steel mill profits; rolled steel and rebar need to rely on production reduction and anti-"involution" policies to stop the decline [2] - The financial market has different trends in stock index futures/options, treasury bonds, and precious metals. The stock market is affected by factors such as policy effects and capital flows, and the bond market shows a short-term consolidation and medium-term upward trend. Precious metals are influenced by factors such as central bank gold purchases, interest rate policies, and geopolitical risks [3][4] - The light industry products market has different trends in logs, pulp, and paper products. Logs face supply pressure and weakening demand, pulp is expected to rebound from the bottom, and double-offset paper is expected to oscillate [6] - The agricultural products market is affected by factors such as policy adjustments, weather conditions, and supply and demand relationships. The prices of oils and fats are expected to operate in a range, and the prices of livestock products are expected to be oscillatory and bullish [6][7] - The soft commodities and polyester market are affected by factors such as weather, production capacity, and cost. The prices of rubber are expected to oscillate widely, and the prices of polyester products are expected to oscillate or wait and see [9] Summary by Directory Black Industry - Iron ore: The total arrival volume at 47 ports in China reached 33.141 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 59%. The iron water continued to decline from a high level, and the port inventory continued to increase. The pattern of oversupply was difficult to reverse [2] - Coking coal and coke: The overseas Fed's interest rate cut was implemented, and the domestic 14th Five-Year Plan exceeded market expectations. The coking coal raw coal inventory dropped to the lowest level of the year, and the supply of coking coal in the main producing areas was continuously tight. The market's core contradiction was the extremely low profit level of steel mills [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: The macro good news landed, and the black price returned to the fundamentals. The static valuation of rebar was low, and the steel price stop falling depended on the implementation of production reduction and anti-"involution" policies [2] - Glass: The news of the coal-to-gas conversion and cold repair of production lines in Shahe fermented. The real estate completion continued to decline during the peak season, and the glass demand was weak. The enterprise inventory continued to increase [2] Financial Market - Stock index futures/options: The previous trading day, the CSI 300 index recorded -0.31%, the SSE 50 index recorded -0.21%, the CSI 500 index recorded -0.24%, and the CSI 1000 index recorded -0.13%. The refined chemical and chemical raw material sectors showed net capital inflows, while the software and Internet sectors showed net capital outflows [2] - Treasury bonds: The yield of the 10-year Treasury bond due increased by 1bp, and the central bank carried out a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 141.7 billion yuan. The net withdrawal of funds on the same day was 213.4 billion yuan. The bond market showed a short-term consolidation and medium-term upward trend [4] - Precious metals: Gold's pricing mechanism is shifting from the traditional focus on real interest rates to central bank gold purchases. It is affected by factors such as currency attributes, financial attributes, and geopolitical risks. Silver is expected to oscillate at a high level [4] Light Industry Products - Logs: The average daily shipment volume of logs at ports decreased, and the demand was expected to weaken. The import volume increased seasonally, and the port inventory was expected to continue to accumulate. The spot market price was stable, and the market was waiting and watching [6] - Pulp: The spot market price was strong, but the cost support for the pulp price weakened. The papermaking industry's profitability was low, and the demand was poor. The pulp price was expected to rebound from the bottom [6] - Double-offset paper: The spot market price was stable. The new production capacity in South China was increasing, and the supply pressure remained. The market was expected to be cautious, and the price was expected to oscillate [6] Agricultural Products - Oils and fats: The US government shutdown led to a lack of official data guidance. The palm oil production in Malaysia was expected to increase, and the inventory continued to rise. The domestic soybean supply was abundant, and the demand was weak. The oil prices were expected to operate in a range [6] - Meals: The adjustment of China's tariff policy on the US improved the short-term market sentiment, but the fundamentals were still cautious. The soybean harvest in the US was completed, and the soybean planting rate in Brazil was lower than last year and the average. The domestic oil mill operating rate recovered to a high level, and the soybean meal supply increased [6] - Live pigs: The average transaction weight of live pigs decreased slightly. Retail investors had a bullish expectation and held back sales. The slaughtering enterprise's purchase average weight increased slightly. The settlement price of live pigs increased, and the market was expected to be oscillatory and bullish [7] Soft Commodities and Polyester - Rubber: The raw material supply in Yunnan was stable, and the acquisition price decreased slightly. The glue production in Hainan was lower than expected. The cup glue price in Thailand continued to rise. The demand side's production capacity utilization rate increased, and the inventory continued to decline. The rubber price was expected to oscillate widely [9] - PX: The production increase atmosphere continued, and the oil price rebound was still weak. The short-term supply of PX increased, and the short-term PXN spread had limited room for further rebound [9] - PTA: The medium- and long-term oil price was expected to be weak, and the cost support was weakened. The PTA supply decreased marginally, but there were new device trials. The overall supply and demand improved, but the cost side was uncertain [9] - MEG: The arrival volume was expected to continue to rise, and the domestic production load recovered. The overall supply was at a high level. The demand side's polyester load was temporarily resilient, but there were concerns in the future. The future supply and demand were expected to be in surplus [9] - PR: The raw material support was limited, and the supply and demand pattern remained stalemate. The polyester bottle chip market was likely to maintain a narrow-range oscillation [9] - PF: The demand side performance was average, but the PX - PTA end had strong bottom support. The polyester staple fiber market was expected to oscillate narrowly [9]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings for Different Industries - **Black Industry**: Iron ore - oscillating; Coal and coke - rebounding; Rebar and rolled steel - oscillating; Glass - oscillating; Soda ash - weakening [2] - **Financial Industry**: Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 - oscillating; CSI 300 - oscillating; CSI 500 - rebounding; CSI 1000 - rebounding; 2 - year Treasury bond - oscillating; 5 - year Treasury bond - oscillating; 10 - year Treasury bond - rising; Gold - high - level oscillating; Silver - high - level oscillating [2][4] - **Light Industry**: Logs - weakly oscillating; Pulp - bottom - consolidating; Offset paper - oscillating; Edible oils - range - bound; Meal products - oscillating; Beans - oscillating; Live pigs - strongly oscillating [5][6][7] - **Soft Commodities and Polyester Industry**: Rubber - oscillating; PX - on - the - sidelines; PTA - oscillating; MEG - weakening; PR - on - the - sidelines; PF - on - the - sidelines [9] 2. Core Views - **Macro - level**: The Fed's interest - rate cut is realized, Sino - US relations ease, and the 14th Five - Year Plan exceeds market expectations. The market is in short - term consolidation, with an upward mid - term trend. It is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures [2][4] - **Industry - level**: Different industries have different supply - demand situations. For example, in the black industry, there is an oversupply situation in iron ore; in the coal and coke sector, fundamentals support price increases. In the financial industry, stock index futures show different trends, and the bond market is in a state of small - scale rebound [2][4] 3. Summary by Industry **Black Industry** - **Iron ore**: Supply reaches a multi - year high with a 59% month - on - month increase in the arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports. Demand is weak, with real - estate new construction at the 2005 level. Port inventories continue to rise, and the supply - demand surplus pattern is hard to reverse [2] - **Coal and coke**: Overseas and domestic positive factors support prices. The low profit of steel mills and the uncertainty of negative feedback in the steel market make the raw - material end stronger than the finished - product end. Coke starts the third round of price increases [2] - **Rebar and rolled steel**: After the macro - level positive factors are realized, prices return to fundamentals. Low static valuation, weak demand, and the need for strict production cuts and anti - "involution" policies to stop the price decline [2] - **Glass**: The news of coal - to - gas conversion and production - line cold - repair in Shahe is fermenting. Real - estate completion decline drags down demand, and inventory increases. The daily melting volume needs to be reduced to solve the supply - demand surplus [2] **Financial Industry** - **Stock index futures/options**: Different stock indices show different trends. Some sectors have capital inflows or outflows. The market is expected to be upward in the mid - term, and long positions are recommended [2][4] - **Treasury bonds**: The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond rises, and the central bank conducts reverse - repurchase operations. The market shows a small - scale rebound, and it is recommended to hold long positions in bonds [4] **Light Industry** - **Logs**: Supply pressure increases with seasonal import growth. Demand is expected to weaken as the downstream enters the off - season. Port inventories are likely to continue to accumulate, and prices are expected to weakly oscillate [6] - **Pulp**: Cost support weakens, paper - mill inventory pressure is high, and demand is poor. Prices are expected to bottom - consolidate [6] - **Edible oils**: The US government shutdown causes a lack of data, and concerns about soybean exports rise. Palm oil production and inventory pressure suppress prices. Crude - oil price weakness affects the bio - fuel industry and drags down the edible - oil market. Domestic supply is abundant, and prices are expected to range - bound [6] - **Meal products**: China's tariff cut on US agricultural products improves short - term sentiment, but the follow - up price trend depends on actual procurement and export rhythm. Domestic supply increases, and demand is weak, with prices expected to oscillate [6][7] - **Live pigs**: Transaction weight slightly decreases. Settlement prices rise due to factors such as increased demand for large pigs, improved slaughter - enterprise orders, and enhanced secondary - fattening enthusiasm. Prices are expected to rise in the coming week [7] **Soft Commodities and Polyester Industry** - **Rubber**: Different regions have different weather impacts on raw - material supply. Overall inventory is low, and demand shows signs of recovery. Prices are expected to oscillate widely [9] - **PX and PTA**: PX has short - term supply increase and demand decrease, and PTA's cost - end support weakens. Both prices mainly follow oil - price fluctuations [9] - **MEG**: Supply is at a high level, demand is expected to decline in the future, and price is under pressure from inventory accumulation [9] - **PR and PF**: PR may adjust strongly due to cost factors, and PF is expected to have a narrow - range consolidation [9]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The current tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the core lies in the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the process of bottom - building, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [2][3]. - The bullish signals released by liner companies have warmed the market sentiment. Long - position funds have continuously entered, pushing up the futures price. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [2][3]. - For different time - frame strategies: in the short - term, risk - preference investors who have built positions in the EC2512 contract below 1500 can consider partial profit - taking; in the long - term, it is recommended to take profits when the contract price surges and wait for the price to stabilize after the correction before making further judgments [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content a. Freight Index - **SCFIS and NCFI**: On November 3, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1208.71 points, down 7.9% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1267.15 points, up 14.4%. On October 31, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1100.32 points, up 12.60%; for the European route, it was 965.62 points, up 17.43%; for the US - West route, it was 1452.82 points, up 12.30% [2]. - **SCFI and CCFI**: On October 31, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1550.70 points, up 147.24 points from the previous period. The SCFI price for the European route was 1344 USD/TEU, up 7.87%; for the US - West route, it was 2647 USD/FEU, up 22.94%. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1021.39 points, up 2.9%; for the European route, it was 1323.81 points, up 2.4%; for the US - West route, it was 772.67 points, up 4.9% [2]. b. PMI Data - **Eurozone**: In October, the manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 45.9 (expected 45.1, previous 45), the service PMI preliminary value was 51.2 (expected 51.5, previous 51.4), and the composite PMI preliminary value was 49.7 (expected 49.7, previous 49.6). The Sentix investor confidence index was expected to be - 8.5, with the previous value of - 9.2 [2]. - **China**: In October, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, and the comprehensive PMI output index was 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating overall stable corporate production and operation activities [2]. - **US**: In October, the S&P Global service PMI preliminary value was 55.2 (expected 53.5, previous 54.2), the manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52.2 (expected 52, previous 52), and the composite PMI preliminary value was 54.8 (expected 53.1, previous 53.9) [3]. c. Tariff and Trade - Sino - US tariffs continue to be extended, and the negotiation has not made substantial progress. The tariff war has gradually evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries. Currently, the spot price has slightly decreased [2][3]. d. Market Strategy - **Short - term Strategy**: The main contract is weak while the far - month contract is strong, which is in line with the bottom - building judgment. Risk - preference investors who have built positions in the EC2512 contract below 1500 can consider partial profit - taking. Follow - up market trends should be monitored, and it is not recommended to hold losing positions. Stop - loss should be set [3]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Given the volatile international situation, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or participate with a light position [3]. - **Long - term Strategy**: It is recommended to take profits when the contract price surges and wait for the price to stabilize after the correction before making further judgments [3]. e. Market Conditions on November 5 - The main contract 2512 closed at 1946.0, with a 4.08% increase, a trading volume of 4.12 million lots, and an open interest of 34,100 lots, an increase of 3157 lots from the previous day [3]. - The daily trading limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 18%, the margin was adjusted to 28%, and the intraday opening limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 was set at 100 lots [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The rally signal has boosted bullish sentiment, causing the market to continue rising. It is not recommended to increase positions, and full profit - taking can be considered. Attention should be paid to the freight rates in November. The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the core lies in the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the bottom - building process, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see. For long - term strategies, it is advisable to take profits when prices rise and wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback before making further decisions [2][3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Contents Freight Rate Index - On November 3, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1208.71 points, down 7.9% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US West route was 1267.15 points, up 14.4% from the previous period. On October 31, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 1100.32 points, up 12.60% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 965.62 points, up 17.43% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US West route was 1452.82 points, up 12.30% from the previous period. Also on October 31, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced a price of 1550.70 points, up 147.24 points from the previous period; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1021.39 points, up 2.9% from the previous period; the SCFI European line price was 1344 USD/TEU, up 7.87% from the previous period; the SCFI US West route was 2647 USD/FEU, up 22.94% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1323.81 points, up 2.4% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US West route was 772.67 points, up 4.9% from the previous period [2]. Economic Data - The preliminary Eurozone manufacturing PMI in October was 45.9 (expected 45.1, previous 45), the preliminary service PMI was 51.2 (expected 51.5, previous 51.4), and the preliminary composite PMI was 49.7 (expected 49.7, previous 49.6). The Eurozone Sentix investor confidence index in October had a previous value of - 9.2 and a forecast value of - 8.5. In October in China, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, and the composite PMI output index was 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. The preliminary US S&P Global service PMI in October was 55.2 (expected 53.5, previous 54.2), the manufacturing PMI was 52.2 (expected 52, previous 52), and the composite PMI was 54.8 (expected 53.1, previous 53.9) [2][3]. Policy and Trade Information - The China - US tariff extension continues, and the negotiation has not made substantial progress. The US will cancel the 10% so - called "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods (including those from Hong Kong and Macau), and the 24% reciprocal tariff on Chinese goods will be suspended for another year. China will adjust its counter - measures accordingly, and both sides agree to extend some tariff exclusion measures [2][3][4]. Market Strategy - **Short - term Strategy**: The main contract is weak, and the far - month contracts are strong, which is in line with the bottom - building judgment. Risk - takers who were advised to build positions below 1500 in the EC2512 contract (with a profit of over 300 points) can consider partial profit - taking. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Given the volatile international situation, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or participate with a light position. - **Long - term Strategy**: It is advisable to take profits when prices rise for each contract, wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback, and then judge the subsequent direction [3]. Market Conditions - On November 5, the main contract 2512 closed at 1946.0, up 4.08%, with a trading volume of 4.12 million lots and an open interest of 34,100 lots, an increase of 3157 lots from the previous day. The price limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 has been adjusted to 18%, the margin of the company for contracts 2508 - 2606 has been adjusted to 28%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [3].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillation [2] - Coking coal and coke: Rebound [2] - Rebar and coil: Oscillation [2] - Glass: Rebound [2] - SSE 50 Index Futures/Options: Oscillation [2] - CSI 300 Index Futures/Options: Oscillation [2] - CSI 500 Index Futures/Options: Rebound [2] - CSI 1000 Index Futures/Options: Rebound [2] - 2-year Treasury Bond: Oscillation [3] - 5-year Treasury Bond: Oscillation [3] - 10-year Treasury Bond: Upward [3] - Gold: High-level oscillation [3] - Silver: High-level oscillation [3] - Logs: Weak oscillation [5] - Pulp: Bottom consolidation [5] - Offset paper: Oscillation [5] - Soybean oil: Range-bound operation [5] - Palm oil: Range-bound operation [5] - Rapeseed oil: Range-bound operation [5] - Soybean meal: Rebound [5] - Rapeseed meal: Rebound [5] - Soybean No. 2: Rebound [5] - Soybean No. 1: Rebound [7] - Live pigs: Oscillation with a strong bias [7] - Rubber: Oscillation [7] - PX: Wait-and-see [9] - PTA: Oscillation [9] - MEG: Weak [9] - PR: Wait-and-see [9] - PF: Wait-and-see [9] Core Views - The macro利好 has landed, and the prices of black commodities are returning to fundamentals. The iron ore market is characterized by "ample supply, low demand, and port inventory accumulation", and the pattern of oversupply is difficult to reverse. The coking coal price has risen significantly, and the short-term trend of coking coal and coke is oscillating with a strong bias. The steel price depends on the implementation of production cuts and anti-"involution" policies. The glass market needs to pay attention to the cold repair of production lines and the impact of macro and production reduction policies. [2] - The stock index market has short-term consolidation and a medium-term upward trend, and it is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures. The bond market has a short-term upward trend, and it is recommended to hold long positions in treasury bonds. The gold market is expected to maintain high-level oscillation due to factors such as the change in the pricing mechanism, geopolitical risks, and the economic data in the United States. [3] - The log market is expected to have weak oscillation due to the increase in supply and the weakening of demand. The pulp market is expected to have bottom consolidation due to the weakening of cost support and the poor demand. The oil and fat market is expected to continue range-bound operation due to the concerns about supply and demand. The meal market is expected to continue to rebound under the optimistic trade expectations and the boost of US soybeans. [5] - The live pig market is expected to have a week-on-week increase in the average price due to the increase in demand and the slowdown in slaughter. The rubber market is expected to have wide-range oscillation due to the impact of weather on supply and the recovery of demand. [7] - The PX market has short-term supply increase and demand decrease, and the PXN spread has limited room for further rebound. The PTA market has marginal improvement in supply and demand, and the price follows the cost fluctuation. The MEG market has an expected oversupply in the future, and the price is suppressed by the inventory pressure. [9] Industry Summaries Black Industry - Iron ore: The total arrival volume at 47 ports in China reached 33.141 million tons, a record high in recent years, with a month-on-month increase of 12.298 million tons and an increase of 59%. The iron ore market is characterized by "ample supply, low demand, and port inventory accumulation", and the pattern of oversupply is difficult to reverse. [2] - Coking coal and coke: The coking coal price has risen significantly due to the overseas interest rate cut, the easing of Sino-US relations, and the exceeding of market expectations by the 14th Five-Year Plan. The short-term trend of coking coal and coke is oscillating with a strong bias. [2] - Rebar and coil: The steel price depends on the implementation of production cuts of more than 5% in the fourth quarter of 2025 and the intensity of the anti-"involution" policy. The steel market still has supply and demand contradictions and is mainly in oscillation adjustment. [2] - Glass: The cold repair of 4 production lines in Shahe is expected to be seen this week, with a production capacity of about 3,000 tons. The glass market has weak demand and increasing inventory, and it is necessary to pay attention to the cold repair of production lines and the impact of macro and production reduction policies. [2] Financial Industry - Stock index futures/options: The stock index market has short-term consolidation and a medium-term upward trend, and it is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures. The Chinese government has announced specific measures to implement the consensus of the Sino-US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur. [2][3] - Treasury bonds: The bond market has a short-term upward trend, and it is recommended to hold long positions in treasury bonds. The central bank has carried out 65.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations, and the net withdrawal of funds is 492.2 billion yuan. [3] - Gold and silver: The gold market is expected to maintain high-level oscillation due to factors such as the change in the pricing mechanism, geopolitical risks, and the economic data in the United States. The silver market also has a high-level oscillation trend. [3] Light Industry - Logs: The daily average shipment volume of logs at ports decreased month-on-month, and the demand is expected to weaken. The import volume of logs shows a seasonal increase in the fourth quarter, and the supply pressure increases. The log market is expected to have weak oscillation. [5] - Pulp: The cost support for pulp prices weakens, and the demand is poor. The pulp market is expected to have bottom consolidation. [5] - Double-adhesive paper: The supply pressure of double-adhesive paper still exists, and the market expectation is cautious. The double-adhesive paper market is expected to oscillate. [5] Oil and Fat Industry - Oil and fat: The US government shutdown has led to a lack of official data guidance, and the market is worried about US soybean exports. The palm oil market has high inventory and increasing production, and the oil and fat market is expected to continue range-bound operation. [5] - Meal: The Chinese government has lowered tariffs on some US agricultural products, and the meal market is expected to continue to rebound under the optimistic trade expectations and the boost of US soybeans. [5] Agricultural Products - Live pigs: The average transaction weight of live pigs has decreased slightly. The demand for large pigs has increased, and the price of large pigs has remained strong. The live pig market is expected to have a week-on-week increase in the average price. [7] - Rubber: The supply of rubber raw materials is stable in Yunnan and affected by weather in Hainan. The demand for rubber has recovered, and the inventory has decreased. The rubber market is expected to have wide-range oscillation. [7] Polyester Industry - PX: The PX market has short-term supply increase and demand decrease, and the PXN spread has limited room for further rebound. The PX price follows the oil price fluctuation. [9] - PTA: The PTA market has marginal improvement in supply and demand, and the price follows the cost fluctuation. The cost support for PTA prices is weakened. [9] - MEG: The MEG market has an expected oversupply in the future, and the price is suppressed by the inventory pressure. The short-term cost fluctuation is large. [9] - PR: The polyester bottle chip market may oscillate and consolidate due to the lack of effective driving factors. [9] - PF: The polyester staple fiber market may have weak consolidation due to the overnight oil price decline and the lack of obvious positive factors. [9]

Report Summary of Shipping Industry 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The core issue is the direction of spot freight rates, and the tariff issue has a marginal effect. The main contract may be in the process of bottom - building. It is recommended to participate lightly or wait and see [3]. - Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [3]. 3. Summary by Related Information Shipping Market Information - On November 3, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1208.71 points, a 7.9% decrease from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1267.15 points, a 14.4% increase from the previous period. The Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index on October 31 was 1100.32 points, a 12.60% increase from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 965.62 points, a 17.43% increase; the NCFI for the US - West route was 1452.82 points, a 12.30% increase [2]. - On October 31, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1550.70 points, a 147.24 - point increase from the previous period; the SCFI European line price was 1344 USD/TEU, a 7.87% increase; the SCFI US - West route was 2647 USD/FEU, a 22.94% increase. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1021.39 points, a 2.9% increase; the CCFI for the European route was 1323.81 points, a 2.4% increase; the CCFI for the US - West route was 772.67 points, a 4.9% increase [2]. Market Sentiment and Policy Impact - CMA was the first to announce a freight rate increase for the second half of November, which boosted bullish sentiment to some extent. The afternoon sentiment gradually warmed up, and the market quickly rose [3]. - The US and China have a series of tariff adjustments. The US will cancel the 10% so - called "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods, and the 24% reciprocal tariff on Chinese goods will be suspended for another year. China will adjust its counter - measures accordingly, and both sides agree to extend some tariff exclusion measures [5]. Trading Data - On November 4, the main contract 2512 closed at 1909.9, with a decline of 3.82%, a trading volume of 29,700 lots, and an open interest of 30,900 lots, an increase of 1595 lots from the previous day [3]. Strategy Recommendations - **Short - term Strategy**: The main contract is weak, and the far - month contracts are strong, which is in line with the bottom - building judgment. Risk - takers who were recommended to build positions in the EC2512 contract below 1500 (with a profit margin of over 300 points) can consider partial profit - taking. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [4]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: In the context of international situation turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic and has large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see temporarily or try with a light position [4]. - **Long - term Strategy**: It was recommended to take profits when the contracts rose, wait for the correction to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [4]. Other Information - The eurozone's October manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 45.9 (expected 45.1, previous value 45), the service PMI preliminary value was 51.2 (expected 51.5, previous value 51.4), and the composite PMI preliminary value was 49.7 (expected 49.7, previous value 49.6). The eurozone's October Sentix investor confidence index had a previous value of - 9.2 and a forecast value of - 8.5 [2]. - In October, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, a 0.8 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month, and the composite PMI output index was 50.0%, a 0.6 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month, indicating overall stable production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises [2]. - The US October S&P Global service PMI preliminary value was 55.2 (expected 53.5, previous value 54.2), the manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52.2 (expected 52, previous value 52), and the composite PMI preliminary value was 54.8 (expected 53.1, previous value 53.9) [3]. - The price limits for contracts 2508 - 2606 were adjusted to 18%, the company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 28%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 was 100 lots [4].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Weakly volatile in the short term [2] - Coking coal and coke: Strongly volatile in the short term [2] - Rebar: Volatile adjustment [2] - Glass: Rebound [2] - Stock index futures/options: Long positions in stock indices are recommended [4] - Treasury bonds: Long positions in treasury bonds with light positions are recommended [4] - Gold: High-level volatility [4] - Silver: High-level volatility [4] - Logs: Weakly volatile [6] - Pulp: Consolidation at the bottom [6] - Offset paper: Volatile [6] - Edible oils: Range-bound operation [6] - Hog: Strongly volatile [7] - Rubber: Volatile [10] - PX: Wait-and-see [10] - PTA: Volatile [10] - MEG: Weak [10] - PR: Wait-and-see [10] - PF: Wait-and-see [10] Core Views - The macro利好 has landed, and the prices of black commodities are returning to fundamentals. The iron ore market is characterized by loose supply, low demand, and increasing port inventories, with a difficult-to-reverse oversupply situation. The coking coal and coke market has been boosted by multiple news, but the low profit margins of steel mills remain a core contradiction. The rebar market's price stability depends on production cuts and anti-"involution" policies. The glass market is affected by production line cold repairs and weak demand. The stock index futures/options market is expected to have an upward medium-term trend. The treasury bond market shows a slight rebound. The gold market's pricing mechanism is shifting, and its price is influenced by central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and other factors. The log market is facing weakening demand and increasing supply pressure. The pulp market is under pressure from cost and demand. The edible oil market has abundant supply and weak demand. The hog market is expected to see a price increase. The rubber market's price is likely to fluctuate widely. The PX and PTA markets are affected by cost and supply-demand relationships. The MEG market has an expected oversupply. The PR and PF markets are expected to be weak [2][4][6][7][10] Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron ore**: The total arrival volume at 47 ports in China reached 33.141 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 12.298 million tons or 59%. The high level of molten iron has declined, and the core lies in steel demand. The real estate new construction has returned to the 2005 level, and domestic demand remains weak. Port iron ore inventories continue to increase, and the market is in an oversupply situation, with short-term prices expected to be weakly volatile [2] - **Coking coal and coke**: Multiple news has boosted the prices of coking coal and coke. The supply concerns in the industrial sector have intensified, and the subsequent environmental protection and safety supervision may affect other production areas. The low profit margins of steel mills are the core contradiction, and the logic of steel mills reducing production due to losses continues to ferment. Coke has started the third round of price increases, and the short-term trend is strongly volatile [2] - **Rebar**: The macro利好 has landed, and the price is returning to fundamentals. The static valuation of rebar is low, and the core lies in steel demand. The real estate new construction has returned to the 2005 level, and domestic demand remains weak. The steel price's stop-falling depends on production cuts and anti-"involution" policies. The steel supply-demand contradiction still exists, and the price is expected to be volatile [2] - **Glass**: The news of coal-to-gas conversion and production line cold repairs in Shahe has fermented. The real estate completion has been declining, dragging down the demand outlook. The glass demand is weak, and the enterprise inventory has been increasing. The glass daily melting volume needs to be reduced to 154,000 tons by the end of the year to resolve the overcapacity in the entire industry chain. The short-term focus is on production line cold repairs and the impact of macro and production reduction policies [2] Financial Sector - **Stock index futures/options**: The previous trading day saw declines in the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices. The forestry and banking sectors had capital inflows, while the chemical fertilizer and pesticide and precious metal sectors had capital outflows. The market is expected to have an upward medium-term trend, and long positions in stock indices are recommended [4] - **Treasury bonds**: The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 117.5 billion yuan, with an operating rate of 1.40%. The net withdrawal of funds on the day was 357.8 billion yuan. The treasury bond spot rates are consolidating, and the market trend is slightly rebounding. Long positions in treasury bonds with light positions are recommended [4] - **Gold**: The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to being centered on central bank gold purchases. The Trump administration's "Make America Great Again" bill may exacerbate the US debt problem, leading to cracks in the US dollar's currency credit. Geopolitical risks and central bank gold purchases are important factors driving up the gold price. The short-term factors affecting the gold price include the Fed's interest rate policy and risk aversion sentiment. The gold price is expected to remain volatile at a high level [4] Light Industry - **Logs**: The daily average shipment volume of logs at ports decreased by 0.16 million cubic meters week-on-week. The demand is expected to weaken as the downstream enters the off-season. The import volume of logs is seasonally increasing, and the supply pressure is increasing. The port inventory is expected to continue to accumulate. The spot market price is weakly volatile, and the price of logs is expected to be weakly volatile [6] - **Pulp**: The spot market price of pulp was stable in the previous trading day. The latest foreign market price of softwood pulp decreased by $20 to $680 per ton, and that of hardwood pulp increased by $20 to $540 per ton. The cost support for pulp prices has weakened. The papermaking industry's profitability is low, and the demand for pulp is weak. The pulp price is expected to be consolidated at the bottom [6] - **Offset paper**: The spot market price of offset paper was stable in the previous trading day. The new production capacity in South China has increased, and the supply pressure remains. The start-up rate has recovered, and publishing tenders have been launched, but the market expectation is cautious. The paper price profit is low, and the enthusiasm for high-price inventory is low. The price is expected to be volatile [6] Agricultural Products - **Edible oils**: The US government shutdown has led to a lack of official data, and the market is worried about US soybean exports. The palm oil production in major producing countries is at the end of the peak season, and the inventory is at a high level, putting pressure on the market. The implementation of Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy may be postponed, weakening the market's confidence in long-term demand. The domestic soybean supply is abundant, and the demand for edible oils is weak. The edible oil market is expected to be range-bound [6] - **Hog**: The average transaction weight of hogs has decreased slightly. The small farmers' bullish expectations and the scale farms' adjustment of the slaughter rhythm have led to a slight decline in the average transaction weight. The demand for large hogs has increased due to the temperature drop, and the slaughter enterprises' purchase weight has increased slightly. The settlement price of hogs has increased, and the secondary fattening enthusiasm has increased. The supply of hogs is relatively abundant, and the demand for pork has increased with the temperature drop. The hog price is expected to increase next week [7] Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: The weather in Yunnan has improved, and the raw material output has gradually recovered, but the rubber tapping profit is negative. The glue production in Hainan is lower than expected due to rain and typhoons, but the raw material price has decreased, and the profit inversion has improved. The cup rubber price in Thailand has continued to rise, and the rubber tapping in Vietnam has been affected by rainfall. The capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises has increased, and the natural rubber inventory has continued to decline. The natural rubber price is expected to fluctuate widely [10] - **PX**: The manufacturing data in the US and Japan are in decline, and the strengthening of the US dollar has suppressed the oil price rebound. The short-term supply of PX has increased while the demand has decreased, and the medium-term supply-demand pressure remains. The PXN spread has limited room for further rebound, and the PX price follows the oil price [10] - **PTA**: The medium- and long-term oil price is expected to be weak, and the PXN spread has limited upward space, weakening the cost support. The PTA supply has decreased marginally, but new plants are under trial operation. The downstream polyester factory load has slightly increased, and the overall supply-demand situation has marginally improved. The short-term price follows the cost [10] - **MEG**: The arrival volume last week increased, and the domestic production load recovered, with the overall supply at a high level. The polyester load has some resilience in the short term, but there are concerns after the peak season. The future supply-demand is expected to be in surplus. The short-term cost fluctuates greatly, and the long-term inventory pressure suppresses the price [10] - **PR**: The decline in the oil price has led to a lack of support for raw materials. Coupled with the stalemate in the supply-demand relationship, the polyester bottle chip market is expected to be weak [10] - **PF**: The overnight oil price has decreased, and both raw materials have shown an increase in supply, lacking obvious positive support. The polyester staple fiber market is expected to be weakly sorted today [10]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - **Black Industry**: Iron ore - Adjustment; Coal and Coke - Rebound; Rolled Steel and Rebar - Oscillation; Glass - Oscillation; Soda Ash - Weak [2] - **Financial Industry**: CSI 500 - Rebound; CSI 1000 - Rebound; 2 - year Treasury Bond - Oscillation; 5 - year Treasury Bond - Oscillation; 10 - year Treasury Bond - Upward; Gold - High - level Oscillation; Silver - High - level Oscillation [3] - **Light Industry**: Log - Weak Oscillation; Pulp - Bottom Consolidation; Double - offset Paper - Oscillation; Edible Oils - Range Movement; Meal - Rebound; Soybean No.2 - Rebound; Soybean No.1 - Rebound; Live Pigs - Oscillation with a Bullish Bias [5][6][7] - **Soft Commodities and Polyester Industry**: Rubber - Oscillation; PX - Wait - and - See; PTA - Oscillation; MEG - Wait - and - See; PR - Wait - and - See; PF - Wait - and - See [9] 2. Core Views - **Black Industry**: After the macro - positive factors are realized, the black prices return to the fundamentals. The iron ore market is in a pattern of loose supply, low demand, and rising port inventories. The coal and coke market is affected by multiple news, and the core contradiction lies in the low profit of steel mills. The steel and glass markets are mainly in oscillation due to supply - demand contradictions [2]. - **Financial Industry**: The central and western regions of China have achieved new highs in foreign trade. The stock index market is expected to rise in the medium - term, and it is recommended to hold long positions. The bond market shows a small - scale rebound, and it is advisable to hold long positions lightly. The gold price is affected by various factors and is expected to maintain high - level oscillation [3]. - **Light Industry**: The log market is under supply pressure and weak demand, with prices expected to be weakly oscillating. The pulp market is expected to bottom - consolidate. The edible oil market has sufficient supply and weak demand, continuing range movement. The meal market is expected to rebound in the short - term. The live pig market is expected to rise slightly in the coming week [5][6][7]. - **Soft Commodities and Polyester Industry**: The natural rubber market has a decreasing inventory, and prices may oscillate widely. The PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF markets have different supply - demand situations, and their prices mainly follow cost fluctuations or are in a wait - and - see state [9]. 3. Summary by Categories Black Industry - **Iron Ore**: The total arrival volume at 47 ports in China reached 33.141 million tons, a year - high, with a month - on - month increase of 12.298 million tons (59%). The iron - water output has declined, and the demand in the real estate industry is weak. The port inventory has increased, and the supply - demand surplus pattern is difficult to reverse. Follow four main lines for price re - pricing [2]. - **Coal and Coke**: Multiple news has pushed up the prices. The core contradiction is the low profit of steel mills. If the finished steel weakens, the scope of steel mill maintenance may expand, which will suppress the raw material prices. Coke has started the third round of price increases, and the short - term trend is oscillating with a bullish bias [2]. - **Rolled Steel and Rebar**: After the macro - positive factors are realized, the prices return to the fundamentals. The static valuation of rebar is low, and the demand is weak. The steel price may stop falling if the output reduction in Q4 2025 exceeds 5% and the anti - "involution" policy is implemented effectively [2]. - **Glass**: The news of cold - repair of production lines due to coal - to - gas conversion in Shahe is fermenting. The real - estate demand is weak, and the enterprise inventory is increasing. The glass daily melting volume needs to drop to about 154,000 tons by the end of the year to solve the supply - demand contradiction [2]. Financial Industry - **Stock Index**: The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are expected to rebound. The market is short - term consolidating and upward in the medium - term. It is recommended to hold long positions [3]. - **Treasury Bond**: The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond has decreased, and the market has a small - scale rebound. It is advisable to hold long positions lightly [3]. - **Gold**: The pricing mechanism is shifting from real interest rates to central bank gold purchases. It is affected by currency, financial,避险, and commodity attributes, and is expected to maintain high - level oscillation [3]. Light Industry - **Log**: The port inventory is increasing, the demand is weakening, and the prices are expected to be weakly oscillating. The CFR price has increased, and the market is waiting and seeing [5]. - **Pulp**: The spot price is slightly stronger, but the cost support is weakening. The paper mill demand is poor, and the price is expected to bottom - consolidate [5]. - **Edible Oils**: The supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak. The prices are expected to continue range movement. Pay attention to the weather in the Brazilian soybean - producing area and the production and sales of Malaysian palm oil [5]. - **Meal**: Supported by the rebound of US soybeans, the prices are expected to rebound in the short - term. Pay attention to the weather in the Brazilian soybean - producing area and the progress of Sino - US trade [6][7]. - **Live Pigs**: The average trading weight has decreased slightly. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is increasing with the cooling weather. The price is expected to rise slightly in the coming week [7]. Soft Commodities and Polyester Industry - **Rubber**: The production in some areas is affected by weather, the demand is increasing, the inventory is decreasing, and the price is expected to oscillate widely [9]. - **PX**: OPEC+ plans to suspend production increase, which eases supply - demand concerns. The short - term supply increases and demand decreases, and the price follows oil prices [9]. - **PTA**: The long - term oil price is expected to be weak, and the cost support is weakening. The supply - demand situation has marginally improved, and the price follows cost fluctuations [9]. - **MEG**: The supply is at a high level, the demand is expected to decline, and the price is under pressure from long - term inventory accumulation [9]. - **PR**: The supply - demand situation has not improved, and the market is in a weak oscillation [9]. - **PF**: The raw material supply is increasing, and the market lacks positive factors, expected to be weakly sorted [9].