| SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | | | --- | --- | | 4月7日 | | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（欧洲航线）1422.42点，较上期下 | 4月11日 | | 跌3.5% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（综合指数）961.61点，较上期下跌2.10% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（美西航线）1129.45点，较上期上 | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（欧洲航线）934.17点，较上期上涨1.76% | | 涨3.7% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（美西航线）1222.05点，较上期下跌17.95% | | 4月11日 | 4月11日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格1394.68点，较上期上涨1.90点 | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（综合指数）1107.28点，较上期上涨0.4% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格1356USD/TEU,较上期上涨 | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（欧洲航线）1507.27点，较上期下跌1.3% | | 1.5% | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（美西航线）776.61点，较上 ...

交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 4 月 14 日星期一 敬请参阅文后的免责声明 期市有风险投资须谨慎 · 516519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-4-14） | | | | 铁矿：关税政策扰动，大宗商品波动加剧，美方暂停 90 天实施关税，对 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 中国部分商品免除对等关税，情绪得到很大缓解。3 月份，我国制造业出 | | | 铁矿石 | 偏弱 | 口订单指数虽延续回升，但仍在收缩区间运行，将对我国钢材产品及下游 | | | | | 产品出口形成制约，进而拖累原料需求。按季节性规律及近期天气情况来 | | | | | 看，下期全球铁矿石发运量预计回升，供应宽松态势。钢企盈利状况尚可， | | | | | 检修高炉陆续复产，日均铁水产量继续环比小幅回升，已超去年同期水平， | | | | | 但有见顶迹象。需求下滑是事实，特别是出口需求雪上加霜。铁矿走势在 | | | | | 宏观预期和现实间来回揉搓，基于远月有粗钢限产及铁矿投产预期压制， | | | 煤焦 | 偏弱 | 稳健的投资者仍可关注铁 ...

观 就会动用军事力量 ....... 以色列显然会深度参与其中。他们将成为其中的领导者。" 财联社4月10日电，据海关总署4月9日公告，自今日12时01分起，对原产于美国的所有进口商品，在现行适用关税税率基础上加征84%关税。 资市 财联社4月10日电，特朗普签署行政命令将对所有悬挂中国国旗的船只征收美国港口停泊费，称此举旨在削弱中国在全球航运业的主导地位。林剑 表示，中国造船业的发展是企业技术创新和积极参与市场竞争的结果，为助力全球的贸易发展、全球供应链稳定安全运转作出了重要贡献。林剑指 出，美国的多份研究报告显示，美国的造船业因过度保护在多年前就已失去了竞争优势。美方将自身的问题归咎于中国，既缺乏事实依据，也有悖 经济常识。"美方单边主义、保护主义的霸道做法不得人心，只会推高全球的海运成本，扰乱全球的产供链稳定，对世界各国的利益造成损害，最 终也无法振兴美国的造船业。" 区段 地缘政治冲突事件、极端天气、外盘原油剧烈波动 提示 SCFIS与期货价格走势 上海集装箱指数 EC2508 EC2510 12,000.00 4.000.00 ring 1,600 0.00 1,100 600 al 010 110 ...

敬请参阅文后的免责声明 期市有风险投资须谨慎 交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 4 月 10 日星期四 交易提示 · 516519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-4-10） | | | | 铁矿：关税政策扰动，大宗商品波动加剧，美国暂停大部分经济体的对等 措施，但对中国加征到 104%关税，短期情绪偏空。3 月份，我国制造业 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 铁矿石 | 偏弱 | 出口订单指数虽延续回升，但仍在收缩区间运行，将对我国钢材产品及下 | | | | | 游产品出口形成制约，进而拖累原料需求。按季节性规律及近期天气情况 | | | | | 来看，下期全球铁矿石发运量预计回升，供应宽松态势。钢企盈利状况有 | | | | | 所改善，钢厂盈利率 53.68%，同比去年增加 25%，检修高炉陆续复产， | | | | | 日均铁水产量继续环比小幅回升至 237.28 万吨，但上升空间较为有限， | | | | | 特别是出口需求雪上加霜。铁矿走势在宏观预期和现实间来回揉搓，基于 | | | 煤焦 | 偏弱 | 远月有粗钢限产及铁 ...

交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 4 月 9 日星期三 | | | | 言人就美方威胁升级对华关税发表谈话指出，美方威胁进一步对华加征 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 中证 500 | 震荡 | 50%关税，中方对此坚决反对。如果美方升级关税措施落地，中方将坚决 | | | | | 采取反制措施维护自身权益。美方对华加征所谓"对等关税"毫无根据， | | | | | 是典型的单边霸凌做法，中方已经采取的反制措施是为了维护自身主权安 | | | 中证 1000 | 震荡 | 全发展利益，维护正常的国际贸易秩序，完全是正当之举。美方威胁升级 | | | | | 对华关税，是错上加错，再次暴露了美方的讹诈本质，中方对此绝不接受。 | | | | | 如果美方一意孤行，中方必将奉陪到底。中央汇金称将持续加大增持 ETF | | 金 | 2 年期国债 | 震荡 | 规模和力度，并首次提出类"平准基金"定位。央行同步宣布，将通过再 | | 融 | | | 贷款向汇金提供充足资金支持。同时，金融监管总局上调保险公司权益投 | | | | | 资比 ...

2025年4月9日 集运日报 财联社4月8日电，也门胡塞武装军事发言人叶海亚·萨雷亚当地时间7日晚间发表讲话称，胡塞武装通过无人机成功袭击了以色列雅法一处军事目标，胡塞 (航运研究小组) 贸易战持续发酵，美线悲观情绪加剧，推动盘面持续下探，近期操作难度较高，风险偏好者可等待反弹机会 SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | 4月7日 | 3月28日 | | --- | --- | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（欧洲航线）1422.42点，较上期下跌3.5% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（综合指数）983.01点，较上期上涨12.89% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（美西航线）1129.45点，较上期上涨3.7% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (欧洲航线) 866.25点，较上期下跌0.65% | | 4月3日 | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（美西航线）1524.4点，较上期上涨49.83% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格1392.78点，较上期上涨35.90点 | 4月3日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格1336USD/TEU, 较上期上涨1 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Weak [2] - Coking coal and coke: Weak [2] - Rebar: Weak [2] - Glass: Weak [2] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index: Rebound [2] - CSI 300 Index: Volatility [2] - CSI 500 Index: Volatility [3] - CSI 1000 Index: Volatility [3] - 2 - year Treasury bond: Volatility [3] - 5 - year Treasury bond: Upward [3] - 10 - year Treasury bond: Upward [3] - Gold: Correction [3] - Silver: Correction [3] - Soybean oil: Weakly volatile [6] - Palm oil: Weakly volatile [6] - Rapeseed oil: Weakly volatile [6] - Soybean meal: Volatility [6] - Rapeseed meal: Volatility [6] - Soybean No. 2: Volatility [6] - Rubber: Weakly volatile [6] - Pulp: Weakly volatile [7] - Log: Weakly volatile [7] - PX: Wait - and - see [7] - PTA: Wait - and - see [7] - MEG: Wait - and - see [7] - PR: Wait - and - see [7] - PF: Buy on dips [7] - Plastic: Weakly volatile [7] - PP: Weakly volatile [8] - PVC: Weakly volatile [8] Core Viewpoints - The global trade situation is tense due to Trump's tariff policies, which have a negative impact on various industries, especially the black metal and export - related industries. However, China has a series of policy tools in reserve to stabilize the economy and the capital market [2][3]. - The prices of most commodities are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost, and policy. For example, the supply of iron ore is expected to increase, while the demand is restricted; the coal - coke industry is adjusting its supply sources; the real estate - related glass and building materials industries are affected by demand recovery and policy [2][3][7]. - In the financial market, the stock index is expected to be supported by policy, and the bond market shows different trends according to different maturities. The price of precious metals is affected by multiple factors such as geopolitics, interest rates, and demand [3]. - The agricultural and oil - fat markets are affected by factors such as seasonal production, trade policies, and supply - demand relationships. For example, the palm oil is in the production - increasing season, and the soybean market is affected by planting area, inventory, and trade tariffs [6]. Summary by Categories Black Metal Industry - **Iron ore**: The global trade situation restricts the export of steel products and downstream products, dragging down the demand for raw materials. The supply of iron ore is expected to increase, and the daily molten iron output has a limited upward space. Stable investors can consider the 05 - 09 positive spread operation of iron ore and the long - term short allocation of the 09 contract [2]. - **Coal - coke**: The increase in tariffs on imported coal from the US will lead to a decrease in imports from the US and an increase in imports from other countries. The supply of coke is still in an over - supply pattern, and the coal - coke market generally follows the trend of finished products [2]. - **Rebar**: The mutual increase in tariffs is negative for the black metal industry. Although there may be domestic stimulus policies, it is difficult to reverse the situation. The demand for rebar is in a weak recovery stage, and the price may hit a new low in the short term [2]. - **Glass**: The production and sales in Shahe have declined, and the production is expected to increase slightly. The demand is in a seasonal recovery, and the price of the 2505 contract is under pressure [2]. Financial Market - **Stock index**: The previous trading day's stock index fell, but future policies such as reserve requirement ratio cuts, interest rate cuts, and fiscal stimulus are expected to support the capital market. The agricultural sector has capital inflows, and the stock index is expected to be stable [3]. - **Treasury bond**: The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond has decreased, and the central bank has carried out reverse repurchase operations. The 2 - year Treasury bond shows a volatile trend, while the 5 - year and 10 - year Treasury bonds are expected to rise [3]. - **Precious metals**: The price of gold is affected by multiple factors such as geopolitics, interest rates, and demand. Although the logic of the previous price increase has not completely reversed, the short - term price is under pressure due to the strengthening of the US dollar. The price of silver also shows a correction trend [3]. Agricultural and Oil - Fat Market - **Oil - fat**: The palm oil in Southeast Asia is in the production - increasing season, and the inventory is expected to rise. The supply of domestic soybeans is expected to increase, and the overall supply of the three major oils is abundant. The price of oils is expected to be weakly volatile [6]. - **Oil - meal**: The US soybean faces export risks, but the domestic supply of soybeans is expected to improve. The demand for downstream products is cautious, and the price of soybean meal is expected to be volatile [6]. - **Soybean No. 2**: The export of Brazilian new soybeans is accelerating, and the supply of domestic soybeans is expected to increase. The price is expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as weather and trade policies [6]. Other Commodities - **Rubber**: The supply of natural rubber is expected to increase, and the demand is affected by the tariff dispute. The price is expected to be weakly volatile [6]. - **Pulp**: The cost of pulp is strongly supported, but the demand from the papermaking industry is weak. The price is expected to be weakly volatile [7]. - **Log**: The supply pressure of logs is decreasing, and the inventory is being reduced. The price is expected to be mainly volatile [7]. - **Chemical Products**: The prices of PX, PTA, MEG, and PR are affected by factors such as raw material prices, supply - demand relationships, and trade policies, and are generally in a wait - and - see state. The price of PF is expected to be weak in the short term, and the prices of plastic, PP, and PVC are expected to be weakly volatile [7][8].

欧元区3月制造业PM1初值为48.7，预期48.2; 3月服务业PM1初值为50.4，预期51。欧元区3月综合PM1初值升至50.4, 2月为50.2，为8月以来最 高。欧元区3月Sentix投资者信心指数为-2.9,预期-8.4,前值-12.7。 2月中国制造业采购经理指数（PM）为50.2%，比上月上升1.1个百分点，制造业景气水平明显回升。中国2月财新制造业PMI 50.8，近三个月最 高,用工收缩率明显放缓。 美国 3 月标普全球制造业 PMI 初值录得49.8, 为 3 个月以来新低。美国 3 月标普全球服务业 PMI 初值录得 54.3, 为 3 个月以来新高。美国 3 月 标普全球综合 PMI 初值录得 53.5, 为 3个月以来新高。 对于今年核心逻辑的预判在于国际关税政策走向,4月美国将对 加拿大、墨西哥、欧洲等国家的关税政策再出反复,临近美线长 协定价窗口,报复性关税被加入谈判手段,对未来海运走向增加 短期策略:建议风险偏好者可尝试2506合约区间交易(1950- 一个较大的扰动因素,在运价上各船司有意挺价,但绕不开联盟 2450) 上述区间内逢低试多逢高试空,设置好止损。 间的价格战。综 ...

2025年3月31日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 或对后续运价走势持有乐观态度,多头情绪上涨,盘面高位震荡,风险偏好者可尝试轻仓超跌反弹。 | SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | | | --- | --- | | 3月24日 | 3月28日 | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (欧洲航线) 1506.17点, 较上期下跌3.9% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (综合指数) 983.01点, 较上期上涨12.89% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (美西航线) 1260.05点, 较上期下跌16.4% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (欧洲航线) 866.25点, 较上期下跌0.65% | | 3月28日 | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (美西航线) 1524.4点, 较上期上涨49.83% | | | 3月28日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格1356.88点,较上期上涨64.13点 | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI (综合指数) 1111.71点, 较上期下跌3.1% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFl欧线价格1318USD/TEU,较上期上涨0. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Rebound [2] - Coal and coke: Oscillation [2] - Rebar and coil: Rebound [2] - Glass: Oscillation [2] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index: Rebound [2] - CSI 300 Index: Oscillation [2] - CSI 500 Index: Decline [4] - CSI 1000 Index: Decline [4] - 2 - year Treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 5 - year Treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 10 - year Treasury bond: Decline [4] - Gold: Strong - biased oscillation [4] - Silver: Strong - biased oscillation [4] - Copper: First decline then rise [4] - Aluminum: Oscillation and consolidation [6] - Zinc: Oscillation and rebound [6] - Nickel: Oscillation and bottom - building [6] - Lithium carbonate: Bottom - building [6] - Stainless steel: Bottom - building [6] - Soybean oil: Wide - range oscillation [6] - Palm oil: Wide - range oscillation [6] - Rapeseed oil: Wide - range oscillation [6] - Soybean meal: Oscillation with a downward bias [6] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillation with a downward bias [6] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillation with a downward bias [6][8] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillation with a downward bias [8] - Cotton: Oscillation with an upward bias [8] - Cotton yarn: Oscillation with an upward bias [8] - Rubber: Weak [8] - Red dates: Oscillation [8] - Sugar: Stop falling and rise [8] - Pulp: Weak - biased oscillation [8] - Logs: Weak - biased oscillation [9] - PX: Wide - range oscillation [9] - PTA: Wide - range oscillation, buy on dips [9] - MEG: Look at the far - month contract [9] - PR: Wait - and - see [9] - PF: Buy on dips, focus on processing margin [9] - Plastic: Oscillation [9] - PP: Oscillation [9] - PVC: Oscillation [11] - Live pigs: Oscillation with a downward bias [11] - Apples: Stable with a downward bias [11] - Corn: Oscillation with a downward bias [11] - Eggs: Oscillation [11] 2. Core Views - The steel industry in Xinjiang reduces daily crude steel production by 10%, leading to a collective rebound in the black sector, with improved steel enterprise profitability and a slight increase in daily hot metal production [2] - The supply - surplus pattern of coke remains unchanged, and the twelfth round of price cuts has been initiated, with coal and coke following the trend of finished products [2] - The black varieties are in the process of near - month position transfer, and the market is oscillating upwards. The demand for rebar is in a weak recovery stage [2] - The glass futures have a short - term rebound, and the market is concerned about the recovery of demand and policy adjustments [2] - The large - state - owned commercial banks' capital replenishment has made substantial progress, and the economy shows a good internal - external balance [4] - The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting, and the short - term upward trend is expected to continue due to various factors [4] - The copper supply is tight, and the price is expected to first decline then rise [4] - The aluminum price has strong support at the bottom, and the long - term trend is positive [6] - The medium - long - term supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate is loose, and the price is in the bottom - building stage [6] - The supply of nickel increases, and the price is under pressure in the medium term [6] - The oil market is expected to have wide - range oscillations, and the meal market is expected to oscillate with a downward bias [6] - The cotton market is oscillating with an upward bias, and the rubber market has a core upward drive despite inventory concerns [8] - The sugar price is expected to stop falling and rise, and the pulp price is expected to have a weak - biased oscillation [8] - The log price is expected to have a weak - biased oscillation, and the chemical products have different trends [9] - The agricultural products such as live pigs, apples, and corn have different market trends, and the egg price is oscillating at a low level [11] 3. Summaries by Categories Black Industry - **Iron ore**: Affected by the reduction of steel production in Xinjiang, the black sector rebounds. The steel mill profitability rate is 53.68%, an increase of 25% year - on - year. The daily hot metal production rises to 237.28 tons. Stable investors can focus on the 05 - 09 positive spread operation [2] - **Coal and coke**: The supply - surplus pattern remains unchanged. The twelfth round of price cuts is initiated, and the market follows the trend of finished products, focusing on the recovery of downstream terminal demand [2] - **Rebar and coil**: The black varieties are in the position transfer period, and the market oscillates upwards. The rebar is at a neutral valuation level, and the demand is in a weak recovery stage [2] - **Glass**: The glass futures have a short - term rebound, and the market is concerned about the recovery of demand and policy adjustments [2] Financial and Precious Metals - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: The large - state - owned commercial banks' capital replenishment has made progress, and the economy shows a good internal - external balance. The bullish sentiment declines, and the market oscillates narrowly [4] - **Treasury Bonds**: The yield of the ten - year Treasury bond is flat, and the market funds are generally stable. The Treasury bonds are in short - term consolidation [4] - **Gold and Silver**: The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting, and the short - term upward trend is expected to continue due to factors such as geopolitical risks and inflation concerns [4] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper supply is tight, and the price is expected to first decline then rise due to factors such as the reduction of long - term benchmark processing fees [4] - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price has strong support at the bottom due to supply contraction and cost increase, and the long - term trend is positive [6] - **Other Non - ferrous Metals**: The medium - long - term supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate is loose, and the price is in the bottom - building stage. The supply of nickel increases, and the price is under pressure in the medium term [6] Agricultural Products and Oils - **Oils**: The oil market is expected to have wide - range oscillations due to factors such as the potential increase in palm oil export tax and the South American soybean harvest [6] - **Meals**: The meal market is expected to oscillate with a downward bias due to factors such as the South American soybean supply pressure and the expected reduction of new - season US soybean area [6] - **Cotton and Rubber**: The cotton market is oscillating with an upward bias, and the rubber market has a core upward drive despite inventory concerns [8] - **Sugar and Pulp**: The sugar price is expected to stop falling and rise, and the pulp price is expected to have a weak - biased oscillation [8] - **Logs**: The log price is expected to have a weak - biased oscillation due to factors such as inventory changes and price declines [9] Chemical Products - **PX and PTA**: The PX price is expected to have wide - range oscillations, and the PTA price follows the raw material end and can be bought on dips [9] - **MEG and PR**: The MEG has a short - term rebound, and the PR market is in a weak - biased oscillation [9] - **PF and Plastics**: The PF price is expected to be strong - biased, and the plastic and PP markets are oscillating [9] - **PVC**: The PVC market is oscillating, with short - term inventory reduction but still large supply - demand contradictions [11] Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: The pig price is expected to be weak after the festival, and attention should be paid to the slaughter expectations and large - pig sales [11] - **Apples**: The apple sales are slow during the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, and the market is stable with a downward bias [11] - **Corn**: The corn price breaks through the oscillation range, and it is expected to rise after a short - term callback [11] - **Eggs**: The egg price is oscillating at a low level due to supply and demand factors [11]